The Ben Shapiro Show - Trump’s FINAL ULTIMATUM: Two Weeks To Stop The Attack!

00:00:00.000 All righty, tons to get to today on the show.

00:00:02.000 President Trump saying that he will make his decision about whether to bomb the Fordo nuclear facility within two weeks.

00:00:08.000 We'll explain all the permutations of that, what it means.

00:00:11.000 Plus, is ICE rating Dodger Stadium?

00:00:14.000 And a fight has now broken out between Elon Musk and someone in the Trump administration.

00:00:17.000 But first, it's Friday, and someone brought a leather couch to a gunfight.

00:00:21.000 It's Ben After Dark, 7.30 p.m. Eastern tonight, only on DW+.

00:00:24.000 Tonight, I play a game that would confuse Confucius.

00:00:27.000 Answer your deranged emails, and Dr. Phil confuses Cam Newton for a pride float.

00:00:31.000 Plus, Glenn Beck ruins my week with a movie pick, and someone gets absolutely annihilated in this week's Ben Destroys.

00:00:37.000 It's unpredictable, unfiltered.

00:00:38.000 And deeply unserious.

00:00:39.000 Join me and my slightly unhinged sidekick, Producer Savvy, as we light the match and walk away in slow motion.

00:00:44.000 It's been After Dark tonight, 7.30 p.m. Eastern, exclusively for members only on Daily Wire Plus.

00:00:50.000 All righty, folks.

00:00:50.000 So President Trump continues to play his cards.

00:00:53.000 And everybody seems very roiled by this.

00:00:56.000 Everybody on the sort of anti-Israel right and left, that horseshoe theory.

00:01:01.000 They seem to be very encouraged by the idea that President Trump is going to taco out with regard to Iran, that somehow he's now going to let Iran have a clear pathway to a nuclear weapon or something like that.

00:01:11.000 And some people on the pro-Israel side are very agitated about this as well, thinking the same sort of thing.

00:01:16.000 That's not what's happening.

00:01:18.000 That's not what I'll explain in a moment.

00:01:20.000 First, the updates from the actual war.

00:01:22.000 So last night, according to the IAEA, the International Atomic Energy Agency, Israel Israel has struck several nuclear facilities in Iran.

00:01:42.000 The heavy water reactor, as originally designed, would have been able to easily produce plutonium that could have eventually been used in a nuclear weapon, although of course Iran continues to lie and say that they are not producing nuclear weaponry.

00:01:53.000 If they're not producing nuclear weaponry, I just have a question.

00:01:56.000 Why are they building facilities 300 feet under the ground?

00:01:59.000 You do that if you're building a normal nuclear energy facility.

00:02:02.000 We have lots of nuclear energy facilities in the United States, in Europe.

00:02:06.000 None of them are built 300 feet below the ground.

00:02:10.000 The only reason to do that is, of course, because you are trying to shield from some sort of attack, because that's not what you're...

00:02:24.000 You're just so green.

00:02:25.000 And I've yet to see the actual explanation for why Iran even needs some level of civilian nuclear enrichment.

00:02:32.000 What is the desperate need for civilian nuclear enrichment?

00:02:36.000 They're just such big environmentalists.

00:02:38.000 They're like Greta Thunberg environmentalists. 1.00

00:02:39.000 Very worried about oil and natural gas, are they?

00:02:41.000 Over in the Islamic Republic of Iran?

00:02:44.000 Uh-huh.

00:02:45.000 In any case, while Israel has been targeting military sites, nuclear sites, nuclear scientists in extraordinarily targeted fashion, As always, because that's what the Israeli military does in the way Western militaries typically do. 0.65

00:02:58.000 Meanwhile, Ayatollah Khamenei and his friends have been shooting missiles directly into the heart of civilian areas.

00:03:04.000 So the big hit over the course of the last couple days is the Iranians achieved a strike on a hospital. 0.99

00:03:11.000 Not like a hospital that hides, an underground Hamas tunnel, which is what's been happening in the Gaza Strip.

00:03:18.000 Where Hamas, a terrorist group, uses hospitals in order to shield all of its military facilities, thus daring the Israelis to hit the hospital in order to kill the Hamas terrorists.

00:03:28.000 We are talking just a hospital hospital.

00:03:30.000 This hospital, by the way, does not even have any connection with the Israeli military, like at all.

00:03:33.000 So this is Soroka Medical Center in Beershev, which is in the south of the country.

00:03:37.000 And here is a video of an Iranian munition, a large Iranian missile, which, by the way, happens to be a cluster bomb, apparently violating international law, Surgery center that miraculously had been evacuated one day before and basically devastating the building.

00:03:58.000 You can see the missile basically took out the building.

00:04:01.000 And then here is some footage from inside the adjacent building where it was strike.

00:04:12.000 So they were wounding people who were already in the hospital.

00:04:15.000 By the way, worth noting, one of the people who the Iranians have killed in this latest missile barrage, I believe this is a young girl in Ramadan, was a seven-year-old, who'd been brought to Israel for leukemia treatment.

00:04:25.000 She's now dead because of the Iranians, because this is what the Iranian government is. 1.00

00:04:29.000 It is one of the worst governments on planet Earth.

00:04:32.000 According to the Times of Israel, Iran fired a barrage with some 30 ballistic missiles early on Thursday, scoring a direct hit on Israel's main southern hospital, the Soroka Medical Center, and two other impacts in the central cities of Kholon and Ramadan that wounded dozens of people, including six, in Syria.

00:04:45.000 Now, again, the number of people who've been wounded and killed in Israel is shockingly low given the size of the barrage the Iranians have been firing.

00:04:53.000 Israel's missile defenses have been working extraordinarily well.

00:04:56.000 With that said, obviously, the attempt to target civilian centers is a difference in kind from what Israel is doing in the other direction.

00:05:05.000 Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz suggested that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei can no longer be permitted to exist.

00:05:10.000 He said Khamenei openly declares he wants Israel destroyed.

00:05:13.000 He personally gives the order to fire on hospitals.

00:05:15.000 He considers the destruction of the state of Israel to be a goal.

00:05:17.000 Such a man can no longer be allowed to exist.

00:05:19.000 Now, whether Israel actually decides to take out Khamenei or whether they do not decide to take out Khamenei, and President Trump has already publicly suggested that Israel and America actually know where Khamenei is hiding, that is a question of politics.

00:05:31.000 That is a question of what would be best for the war effort.

00:05:35.000 Suffice it to say that, again, the Khomeini regime, the Ayatollah's regime in Iran, is deeply evil. 0.91

00:05:42.000 A deeply evil regime that represses its people, that shoots protesters in the streets, that targets its various geopolitical opponents, ranging from Israel, which it wishes to extirpate, to Saudi Arabia.

00:05:53.000 Remember, it wasn't all that long ago that they were attempting to burn Saudi oil fields.

00:05:57.000 It's a terrible regime.

00:05:58.000 Now, does that mean that the goal here should be regime change by either Israel or the United States?

00:06:02.000 Israel has said, Benjamin Netanyahu has said, that regime change is not in fact a goal.

00:06:05.000 He says, and so does President Trump, that if regime change occurs as an effect of taking down the nuclear regime in Iran, destroying their capacity to create nuclear weapons, well, that's a side product.

00:06:16.000 But nobody, no one, and this is important because you're hearing many, many people.

00:06:20.000 Again, on that horseshoe theory right and that horseshoe theory left, lie about the actual agenda here.

00:06:24.000 Just lie straight up.

00:06:25.000 No one is calling for hundreds of thousands of boots on the ground in order to regime change in Iran.

00:06:32.000 And when people even compare this to Libya, that's ridiculous.

00:06:36.000 It is not like Libya. 0.88

00:06:37.000 First of all, in Libya, most of the work was done by people who are already on the ground.

00:06:42.000 There was some tangential association with Western intelligence, and I opposed it.

00:06:48.000 It was wrong.

00:06:48.000 We shouldn't have done it.

00:06:50.000 In this particular case, the goal is extirpating the Iranian nuclear program.

00:06:54.000 If the regime falls, that's up to the Iranian people. 1.00

00:06:57.000 That's their job.

00:06:58.000 It's their country.

00:07:00.000 But no one that I know of is calling for a full-scale, boots-on-the-ground, Iraq-style nation-building operation.

00:07:06.000 The phrase nation building has not even entered the conversation on any side here with regard to Iran.

00:07:11.000 So all the people who are suggesting that all of this must end because otherwise Iran is Again, I do not buy the initial premise that if you break it, you bought it. 0.96

00:07:25.000 I just don't buy that premise because I think that is a great way of dissuading you from taking actions against regimes that actually threaten you.

00:07:32.000 Okay, so the big news yesterday is that at the White House press conference with Caroline Levitt, the White House press secretary, she read a statement from President Trump that essentially set yet another deadline with regard to The destruction of the Iranian nuclear program.

00:07:47.000 I think people are deliberately misreading this in many cases.

00:07:49.000 Here is Caroline Levitt's statement.

00:07:52.000 I have a message directly from the president, and I quote, based on the fact that there's a substantial chance of negotiations that may or may not take place with Iran in the near future, I will make my decision whether or not to go within the next two weeks.

00:08:08.000 Okay.

00:08:09.000 Within the next two weeks.

00:08:10.000 So first of all, not in two weeks.

00:08:12.000 Within the next two weeks.

00:08:13.000 Okay, so sometime in here, President Trump is going to make a decision.

00:08:16.000 Now, my guess is that the president already knows what he is going to do.

00:08:20.000 Because the reality is that the Iranians have no interest in giving up their nuclear program.

00:08:25.000 And this is sort of the point.

00:08:27.000 When you listen to the rest of what Caroline Levitt had to say yesterday, President Trump is not as Matt Drudge would say.

00:08:33.000 I don't know when Matt Drudge became a full-scale leftist.

00:08:35.000 But he really is.

00:08:35.000 I mean, there's no distinction between Matt Drudge's front page now and the Huffington Post.

00:08:39.000 They're basically the same.

00:08:40.000 But Matt Drudge has a headline today over at the Drudge Report suggesting Trump tacos for two weeks, meaning tacos.

00:08:49.000 Trump always chickens out.

00:08:50.000 That's what that stands for.

00:08:51.000 Trump is not taco-ing.

00:08:52.000 He's not chickening out.

00:08:54.000 That is ridiculous and silly.

00:08:56.000 In fact, Donald Trump put out a post on Truth Social quoting Mark Deason of the Washington Post.

00:09:02.000 Quote, Donald Trump is not an isolationist.

00:09:04.000 But I think some of the Republican isolationists are suddenly discovering they're out of touch with the MAGA movement and Donald Trump.

00:09:08.000 I have total confidence in Donald Trump.

00:09:10.000 This is the guy who killed Qasem Soleimani.

00:09:12.000 You think he's afraid to take out Fordow?

00:09:13.000 Of course not.

00:09:15.000 That was Trump tweeting out that quote.

00:09:17.000 Okay, and if you listen to what the rest of the White House press secretary was saying, he has not changed his opinion on this, and he is not going to change his opinion on this.

00:09:26.000 Iran cannot be nuclear.

00:09:27.000 I'll spell out the options in a moment.

00:09:29.000 Here is Caroline Levitt explaining.

00:09:31.000 Iran has all of the preconditions they need to achieve a nuke. 0.99

00:09:34.000 And all they're waiting for is basically that final run.

00:09:38.000 Let's be very clear.

00:09:40.000 Iran has all that it needs to achieve a nuclear weapon. 0.90

00:09:43.000 All they need is a decision from the supreme leader to do that.

00:09:47.000 And it would take a couple of weeks to complete the production of that weapon, which would, of course, pose an existential threat, not just to Israel, but to the United States and to the entire world.

00:09:57.000 And then she continued by suggesting, what are the conditions?

00:10:01.000 What are the conditions for a deal to be made?

00:10:03.000 And guess what?

00:10:04.000 The conditions are precisely the same as they've always been.

00:10:07.000 I don't know who's high on their own supply here who believes that President Trump has now radically shifted his position.

00:10:14.000 He has not.

00:10:15.000 He just put a clock on this thing.

00:10:17.000 That's all.

00:10:20.000 No enrichment of a uranium, and Iran is absolutely not able to achieve a nuclear weapon.

00:10:27.000 The president has been very clear about that.

00:10:30.000 Okay.

00:10:31.000 Again, no uranium enrichment.

00:10:33.000 No working toward a nuclear weapon.

00:10:34.000 Does that sound like President Trump has changed his opinion?

00:10:37.000 Now again, there was a sort of quasi-celebration that broke out among the horseshoe theory folks, suggesting that perhaps, finally, the isolationists had their win.

00:10:45.000 Perhaps now, Donald Trump was abandoning his entire stated goal with regard to the Iranian nuclear program for two decades.

00:10:51.000 Guys, you read him wrong.

00:10:53.000 You're still reading him wrong.

00:10:54.000 You are still reading him wrong.

00:10:55.000 That's not what the President of the United States is saying.

00:10:57.000 That's not what the President of the United States is doing.

00:11:00.000 We'll get to more on the President of the United States.

00:11:02.000 What exactly is he doing here?

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00:13:17.000 And then, just for good measure, Caroline Lovett said, Our goal here is no nuclear program.

00:13:24.000 The decision will happen within two weeks.

00:13:25.000 Do you guys not speak English?

00:13:28.000 Nobody should be surprised by the president's position that Iran absolutely cannot obtain a nuclear weapon.

00:13:34.000 He's been unequivocally clear about this for decades, not just as president, not just as a presidential candidate, but also as a private citizen.

00:13:41.000 In fact, I have some quotes for you.

00:13:43.000 In 2011, President Trump said America's primary goal with Iran must be to destroy its nuclear ambitions.

00:13:49.000 We cannot allow this radical regime to acquire a nuclear weapon that they will either use or hand off to terrorists.

00:13:57.000 The president said the problem is that Iran poses an existential threat to Israel, our Middle Eastern allies, and the United States.

00:14:03.000 And of course, the president has repeated that in his first term as president and his second term as president as well.

00:14:08.000 That's why he was adamantly opposed to the disastrous Iranian nuclear agreement that was implemented by President Obama.

00:14:16.000 And as I just told you from the president directly, he will make a decision within two weeks.

00:14:22.000 Again, is this Trump chickening out?

00:14:24.000 No.

00:14:24.000 This is President Trump setting a clock.

00:14:27.000 Again, and saying, this is your final chance.

00:14:29.000 Okay, this is your final, final chance.

00:14:30.000 There are no more final chances.

00:14:31.000 Do not pass code.

00:14:32.000 Do not collect $200.

00:14:34.000 And she points out, Caroline Levitt, that the president is doing a good job of getting the whole world on board.

00:14:39.000 And one of the astonishing things about this is that pretty much no one, yeah, the Europeans are mewling a little bit, but that's what you would expect. 1.00

00:14:46.000 They're Europeans. 0.50

00:14:47.000 They're Europeans. 0.50

00:14:47.000 And when the Israelis want the opinions of the French on something, then they can always call the French and learn how to surrender in war. 0.50

00:15:00.000 In fact, the Chancellor of Germany, Friedrich Merz, said specifically that he is thankful that Israel is doing the dirty work the rest of the world has ignored for several decades.

00:15:09.000 Caroline Lovett says the whole world is on Trump's side when he says there can't be an Iranian nuke.

00:15:13.000 Well, certainly the entire world is on the president's side when it comes to the fact that Iran cannot obtain a nuclear weapon.

00:15:21.000 This is something that pretty much all of humanity, except for the Iranian terrorist regime themselves, agree upon.

00:15:29.000 Okay, meanwhile, the Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei says his country would not surrender.

00:15:34.000 Okay, so, again, for all those who believe that this is likely to end in some sort of conciliatory negotiation with the Iranians, Very highly doubtful.

00:15:45.000 Very highly doubtful.

00:15:45.000 And let's be clear.

00:15:46.000 Iran does not have any serious allies.

00:15:49.000 None.

00:15:50.000 No one is coming to their defense.

00:15:52.000 Obviously, they have the Russians mouthing off a little bit, but they're not providing any substantial real defense to the Iranians.

00:15:57.000 The Chinese have flown a couple of flights in, but they're really not getting involved.

00:16:01.000 Even Hezbollah, which is an Iranian proxy terror group, has said, well, have fun, guys.

00:16:07.000 Enjoy.

00:16:07.000 You know, like, have fun in your war, but we're not getting involved at all.

00:16:12.000 And so, meanwhile, the Iranians have been calling the United States and begging the U.S. to call off Israel. 0.58

00:16:19.000 According to the Times of Israel, U.S. Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Arrahi have spoken by phone several times since Israel began its strikes on Iran last week in a bid to find a diplomatic end to the crisis, three diplomats told Reuters.

00:16:32.000 According to those diplomats, Arrahi said Tehran would not return to negotiations over its nuclear program unless Israel stopped the attacks.

00:16:39.000 Well, good luck with that.

00:16:41.000 Israel is not going to stop. 0.95

00:16:42.000 They didn't start so that they could be stopped.

00:16:44.000 The truth is that Israel probably did not ask for explicit permission from the United States to do this.

00:16:50.000 That was the word of Marco Rubio, the Secretary of State.

00:16:53.000 In all likelihood, what happened is that Israel had some sort of understanding with the United States that if they decided to go, the United States would participate in shooting down missiles coming the other way.

00:17:03.000 That was probably the extent.

00:17:05.000 Of whatever agreement took place.

00:17:07.000 There'd be some intelligence sharing, shooting down the missiles coming the other way and the like.

00:17:11.000 But the notion that Steve Witkoff is going to call off the Israeli Air Force from bombing sites because Abbas Arahi, the negotiator on behalf of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, is telling him to, that is not going to be a thing.

00:17:26.000 Especially because Tehran is rejecting every offer that Witkoff has put in front of them.

00:17:30.000 I mean, I've been very critical of Steve Witkoff's negotiating ability.

00:17:34.000 But let's be clear about this.

00:17:35.000 Steve Witkoff has put a bunch of proposals in front of the Iranians, and they've rejected all of them. 0.96

00:17:40.000 And that's up to the Iranians, not Steve Witkoff. 0.98

00:17:41.000 That's not Witkoff's fault that the Iranians have decided to be totally intransigent about their nuclear program.

00:17:48.000 Meanwhile, the Europeans are doing exactly what you would suggest they were going to do, which is they apparently are going to meet with the Iranians on Friday.

00:17:57.000 Which, again, not a shock in any way, shape, or form.

00:18:00.000 This is what the Europeans do. 1.00

00:18:03.000 Apparently, Secretary of State Marco Rubio met Thursday with his UK counterpart, Foreign Secretary David Lammy, to discuss the conflict between Iran and Israel.

00:18:10.000 They agreed Iran can never develop or acquire a nuclear weapon.

00:18:13.000 And then Lammy said, the situation in the Middle East remains perilous and added, a window now exists within the next two weeks to achieve a diplomatic solution.

00:18:20.000 Okay, sure, guys.

00:18:22.000 Uh-huh.

00:18:22.000 Okay, well, you know it'd be an even better diplomatic solution if Iran did not have Fordo to actually negotiate with.

00:18:28.000 Because at that point, they don't have any leverage.

00:18:30.000 Okay, but bottom line here, President Trump is trying to provide as much of an offer to the Iranians as humanly possible he has all along.

00:18:40.000 And he holds all the cards here.

00:18:41.000 The United States has not fired a weapon yet.

00:18:44.000 The only thing the United States has done is help shoot down missiles.

00:18:47.000 That's it.

00:18:48.000 We have not fired an offensive shot in anger yet.

00:18:52.000 Well, when you have the 800-pound gorilla sitting in the back of the room waiting to go, that's a pretty good hand of cards that you're playing to mix the metaphors there.

00:19:02.000 Now, meanwhile, the Trump administration is apparently boosting monitoring of possible Iran-backed cells in the United States.

00:19:07.000 For all those who say that Iran is not a threat to the United States and, you know, they're just friendly and wonderful, I don't know a lot of friendly countries that have actual terror cells planted across the United States who are like our friends and are interested in widespread negotiations.

00:19:23.000 According to FBI Director Kash Patel, his increased efforts, according to CBS News, to monitor possible domestic sleeper cells linked to Hezbollah, which, of course, is a terrorist group.

00:19:33.000 Both the White House and FBI declined to comment.

00:19:36.000 The threat from Iranian operatives has worried current and former administration officials since Iranian General Qasem Soleimani was assassinated in January 2020.

00:19:44.000 Now, let's be clear.

00:19:45.000 The threat preexisted that, obviously.

00:19:47.000 Hezbollah has a wide presence, unfortunately, in Latin America and Europe as well.

00:19:52.000 Iran keeps threatening to retaliate if the U.S. strikes, but I think one of the reasons why the United States and Israel have been holding off from killing Ali Khamenei, the supreme Ayatollah, I think the reason for that is because the idea is, okay, if your nuclear facilities go bye-bye, at least you still get to retain power and be alive. 0.80

00:20:08.000 You still get to remain among the living and breathing.

00:20:11.000 And perhaps one day your son takes over.

00:20:13.000 If you attack the United States or activate terror cells, you are dead and probably so is your son.

00:20:18.000 Because that is the way the Middle East works. 0.95

00:20:21.000 Okay, meanwhile, Benjamin Netanyahu, he has said, listen, President Trump's going to do what's best for America.

00:20:27.000 I trust his judgment.

00:20:29.000 This is the number one true, but number two, it's the right tack for the Prime Minister of Israel because, of course, America and Israel have interests that overlap in this particular area, but are not identical.

00:20:42.000 President Trump will do what's best for America.

00:20:44.000 I trust his judgment.

00:20:46.000 He's a tremendous friend, a tremendous world leader, a tremendous friend of Israel and the Jewish people.

00:20:51.000 Okay, Prime Minister Netanyahu went on to say that regime change in Iran is not a formal goal of the Israeli campaign.

00:20:57.000 He said it could be a result, but that's up to the Iranian people. 0.99

00:21:00.000 Quote, the matter of changing the regime or the fall of this regime is first and foremost a matter for the Iranian people.

00:21:06.000 What is America doing? 0.69

00:21:07.000 He said American pilots are intercepting drones alongside our pilots.

00:21:12.000 He also mentioned the THAAD Advanced Missile Defense System the United States sent to Israel last October and the deployment of U.S. destroyers equipped with the Navy's Aegis Combat System.

00:21:22.000 Netanyahu also said that Israel has the capacity to do what it needs to do when it comes to Iran's nuclear facilities.

00:21:31.000 That if, in fact, the United States does not take out Florida, Israel has alternative plans, which, again, I would be shocked if they did not. 0.59

00:21:37.000 If they'd entered into a full-scale attempt to take down the Iranian nuclear program, But had no plans at all for Fordo, no contingency plans, even high-risk plans, that would be absolutely shocking, given the sophistication of the Israeli assault on Hezbollah in Lebanon and now the Israeli operation in Iran.

00:21:55.000 However, obviously, the easiest solution militarily would be the dropping of 30,000-pound bombs on Fordo.

00:22:02.000 Again, Fordo is the remaining nuclear facility.

00:22:03.000 Natanz has already been largely destroyed.

00:22:06.000 Iraq has been destroyed. 0.98

00:22:08.000 Isfahan has been largely destroyed.

00:22:10.000 The biggest remaining outstanding nuclear facility remains in Fordow, which is buried some 300 feet under the ground.

00:22:17.000 So I asked our friends and sponsors over at Perplexity what type of munitions would be required in order to penetrate the Fordow nuclear facility in Iran.

00:22:25.000 And Perplexity points out, GBU-57 massive ordnance penetrator, a 30,000-pound precision-guided bunker buster bomb with a hardened steel alloy casing and delayed fuse.

00:22:35.000 It uses kinetic energy to drill through rock and concrete before detonating.

00:22:39.000 The penetration capability, the estimates vary.

00:22:41.000 It could be up to 60 meters, which is 200 feet through reinforced concrete.

00:22:45.000 It contains about 5,000 pounds of high-performance explosives optimized for confined detonations.

00:22:50.000 And it would require deployment via B-2 bombers, which can carry two units apiece.

00:22:56.000 So, again, a B-2 bomber would probably be required to carry that, unless somebody jerry-rigged something, because that is such an extraordinarily heavy bomb, obviously.

00:23:06.000 Robert Pape, military historian, says to destroy Fordo, which the MLP was explicitly designed for, would probably take at least two bombs, each hitting exactly the same spot.

00:23:14.000 Now, of course, that sounds a lot harder than it is.

00:23:17.000 This is not the end of A New Hope.

00:23:21.000 This is not a miraculous shot that goes into the one spot in the Death Star that's going to take down the Death Star.

00:23:28.000 Israel did this when they killed Hassan Nasrallah.

00:23:30.000 They actually dropped four bombs in exactly the same spot and killed Hassan Nasrallah.

00:23:33.000 And then just for good measure, they dropped several more bombs just to make sure he was dead.

00:23:38.000 So hitting the same spot from the air with a B-2, actually, it's not the way that you would see from a World War II movie.

00:23:44.000 All these strikes are now extremely targeted.

00:23:47.000 All right, in a second, we'll get into what President Trump actually means by all this.

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00:26:10.000 Okay, so what exactly is going on here?

00:26:12.000 So that's the big question, right?

00:26:13.000 President Trump said that within two weeks he's going to make a decision.

00:26:16.000 So there are essentially four possibilities here.

00:26:19.000 Okay, those four possibilities.

00:26:21.000 One, Iran gives up.

00:26:22.000 President Trump applies the pressure.

00:26:24.000 He says total surrender.

00:26:25.000 Iran does. 0.93

00:26:26.000 And when we say surrender, we don't mean that Iran hands over the keys to Tehran to the United States or something and says, now you run the place.

00:26:32.000 That's not what we're talking about.

00:26:33.000 We are talking about Iran capitulating, giving full access to Fordo and all other nuclear facilities to the United States and its allies to destroy. 0.60

00:26:41.000 That's what we're talking about.

00:26:42.000 Let's say that were to happen.

00:26:44.000 It's highly unlikely, number one, given their past statements and promises and what they are saying right now.

00:26:54.000 Why?

00:26:55.000 Because they're not popular with their own people.

00:26:57.000 It is not as though the people of Iran are desperate to keep the regime in place.

00:27:02.000 And so if there is no guarantee against outside interference, then the Iranian regime is very much afraid that they are going to fall.

00:27:09.000 However, if that were to happen, let's say the best of all possible worlds, President Trump gets what he wants, the Iranians capitulate, then that.

00:27:17.000 It's a huge win for Israel. 0.71

00:27:19.000 It is a triumph of coercive diplomacy.

00:27:21.000 I'm basically saying, listen, we're going to hit you until you drop, and now you're surrendering.

00:27:25.000 Huge win for President Trump.

00:27:27.000 If he is able to destroy the Iranian nuclear facilities, essentially with their capitulation, without ever having to fire a shot, that's the biggest win possible, obviously. 0.85

00:27:36.000 Now, what's the possibility of that?

00:27:38.000 Extremely low.

00:27:38.000 You'd have to say less than 10% is the possibility that the Iranians fully capitulate.

00:27:44.000 You think he doesn't know that?

00:27:45.000 Of course he knows that.

00:27:46.000 Caroline Levitt was saying it at the White House.

00:27:49.000 Okay, possibility number two.

00:27:50.000 Iran doesn't surrender, and then President Trump backs off.

00:27:53.000 He cuts some sort of JCPOA 2.0 while preventing Israel from acting.

00:27:57.000 And I'm sure that there are those inside the administration who would love this.

00:28:00.000 I'm sure there are.

00:28:01.000 They're undoubtedly the people who are leaking every single day to Axios and Politico and Tucker Carlson and all the rest.

00:28:09.000 That is a real question, by the way.

00:28:11.000 If you would like for the administration to succeed, you do not want leaks.

00:28:15.000 And it seems to me that it would be kind of important to find out who's been doing the leak.

00:28:19.000 I don't think it's going to be very difficult to find out, but it's kind of important in any case.

00:28:23.000 Let's say that were to happen.

00:28:24.000 Let's say that there were to be a JCPOA 2.0.

00:28:27.000 Number one, Iran is emboldened. 0.93

00:28:29.000 They feel complete impunity, especially because this would require the United States to basically call off Israel.

00:28:35.000 Race toward a nuclear weapon.

00:28:36.000 And then, let's be clear, the rest of the world gets a lot worse because If the administration does not achieve any of its goals, and Iran is able to maintain its status and its nuclear program, then every other enemy of the United States is going to be emboldened. 0.68

00:28:50.000 How do we know this?

00:28:51.000 Because that's precisely what happened after Joe Biden and his idiotic pullout from Afghanistan, in which we left behind tens of billions of dollars in military equipment, abandoned our allies, and turned over the country to the barbarian cavemen who now run it. 0.94

00:29:03.000 And you know what happened?

00:29:04.000 Russia looked at that.

00:29:05.000 Vladimir Putin looked at that.

00:29:06.000 And he said, hey, what if I just take Ukraine?

00:29:08.000 Well, China right now is casting its eyes across a very narrow strip of water, the Taiwan Straits, at Taiwan.

00:29:14.000 And they are thinking, should we go for that?

00:29:16.000 And one of the big questions is, what will the United States do if we do go for that?

00:29:20.000 Now, they're looking at the words of some people inside the administration, including Elbridge Colby, the Undersecretary of Defense, who is a so-called restrainer and who supposedly wanted to reposition America away from the Middle East and toward the Asian Pacific region.

00:29:35.000 But who also says that if Taiwan is attacked, we can't really do anything about it.

00:29:38.000 They're looking at that and they're thinking, okay, well, maybe we can just take it.

00:29:41.000 Maybe we can just take it, right?

00:29:42.000 If things get bad enough, economically speaking, if we don't feel like we are outdriving the United States in AI, if we don't feel like we're outplaying them internationally, then maybe we just take Taiwan.

00:29:52.000 And worst case scenario, we end up on top there.

00:29:55.000 The relative damage done to China is not as large as the relative damage done to the United States.

00:29:59.000 If they feel that the United States is not even capable of dropping a couple of bunker busters on one site in Iran after their missile defenses have been completely destroyed in Iran, their air defenses completely destroyed in Iran.

00:30:24.000 So China probably looks at Taiwan and goes, okay, okay.

00:30:27.000 Meanwhile, the Saudis and other regional allies, Feel no necessity to push forward with Abraham, of course, and they develop their own nuclear weapons. 0.92

00:30:34.000 Okay, that's the next step.

00:30:35.000 If Iran moves toward nuclear credibility, so does Saudi.

00:30:39.000 So does UAE. 0.97

00:30:40.000 So if you like this region with more nuclear weapons, raise your hand.

00:30:45.000 Now slap yourself in the face because that's really stupid.

00:30:47.000 You do not want the world's most radical regimes all having nuclear weapons.

00:30:51.000 That is a bad thing.

00:30:52.000 And for all those people who are like, well, you know, Pakistan has a nuclear weapon. 0.56

00:30:54.000 Yes, and it's been not great.

00:30:56.000 Okay, Pakistan, number one, does do intelligence sharing with the United States.

00:30:59.000 They sort of play at halfsies, but Pakistan and Iran threatening to go to nuclear war with one another every five minutes is not a good thing.

00:31:06.000 It is not a beneficial thing.

00:31:07.000 And Pakistan has used its nuclear umbrella in order to foster terrorist groups that have been attacking Indians in Kashmir, for example, and ratcheting up tensions.

00:31:16.000 Okay, possibility number three.

00:31:18.000 Iran doesn't surrender.

00:31:20.000 President Trump does not bomb Florida, but he stands back and Israel continues to do the job. 0.99

00:31:25.000 Okay, so, in some ways, that's actually best case scenario for Israel, but not best case scenario for the United States.

00:31:30.000 I'll explain why.

00:31:31.000 If Israel does it itself, then the entire region goes, holy, it completely restacks the power grid in the Middle East. 0.98

00:31:39.000 Now, some of that's already been done by Israel, a tiny country, defenestrating the IRGC, which was the supposed regional military power, by destroying most of their nuclear program already.

00:31:49.000 Already, Israel has changed its perception in the region in extraordinary ways.

00:31:53.000 That's just a fact.

00:31:54.000 But if the United States does not act and Israel goes ahead and does it, number one, Iran remains humiliated. 0.52

00:32:01.000 Israel becomes more of a regional power.

00:32:03.000 Probably the Saudis move toward Israel in the Abraham Accords because, obviously, you want to move where the power is. 0.94

00:32:10.000 That's the way it works in the Middle East.

00:32:11.000 You follow the strong horse.

00:32:12.000 That's always been the way that it works in the Middle East. 0.92

00:32:14.000 And by the way, in international politics generally, the problem of the U.S. credible threat of force is, in fact, reduced.

00:32:21.000 Not as much as if Israel doesn't finish the job, or if the United States would restrain Israel from finishing the job, but if the idea is that the United States didn't act but Israel did, well, again, it's not as bad as if the United States doesn't act and Israel doesn't, in which case everybody looks askance at the Americans and our allies and says they have no actual credible threat of force, but it's not the best case outcome for the United States as far as deterring future action from countries like China.

00:32:50.000 And then finally, the fourth possibility.

00:32:52.000 Iran doesn't surrender and Trump acts.

00:32:55.000 Okay, so what is the most likely outcome there?

00:32:56.000 So there's a lot of speculation that's been going on here.

00:32:59.000 A lot of speculation.

00:33:00.000 And now, I just want to point out, at this point, there are some people who suggested, openly suggested, that BRICS, an economic alliance of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, would come to Iran's defense in this.

00:33:14.000 And world war would ensue.

00:33:16.000 Not a single element of that was even remotely close to correct.

00:33:20.000 Even at all.

00:33:21.000 Like, at all.

00:33:23.000 And it's worth noting that because when you take into account whether people are treating the facts accurately and the world accurately, you should take into account the things they say will happen that do not even come close to happening.

00:33:33.000 Okay, fine.

00:33:34.000 So, if President Trump acts, and by acting, again, we are not talking about a full-scale, on-the-ground, boots-on-the-ground, invasion of Iran, full-scale regime change nation building.

00:33:43.000 No one's talking about that.

00:33:45.000 And I want to point out again, people are lying to you about this.

00:33:48.000 They are lying.

00:33:49.000 Many of them are lying because they believe this is what's going to happen.

00:33:53.000 And what's happening is that they are now arguing a thing that was never argued in order to claim that they've curbed President Trump from his baser and more egregious ambitions.

00:34:03.000 That they, the Restrainers, have stopped President Trump. 1.00

00:34:05.000 of President Trump were to drop a couple of bombs on Fordo, then actually the restrainers won because what they did is they deterred President Trump Except I don't think you're idiots.

00:34:17.000 I think you're nefarious.

00:34:17.000 I think you're defending.

00:34:19.000 A straw man in order to protect yourselves from the fact that you were wrong, if this is what President Trump happens to.

00:34:24.000 Again, he may not, but if that's what happens, and it's his choice, if that's what happens, then all the people right now who are saying that they somehow won a victory by President Trump only bombing Fordo and not doing a complete regime, that was never on the table, and you're lying.

00:34:38.000 You're lying in order to distract from the fact that you were wrong and you totally misinterpreted what President Trump's foreign policy looks like.

00:34:46.000 In a self-congratulatory, isolationist way.

00:34:50.000 So don't buy that crap.

00:34:51.000 It ain't true.

00:34:52.000 Okay, so let's say that President Trump acts.

00:34:56.000 So what happens next?

00:34:57.000 So again, the idea that massive regional war ensues, that would require that Iran has some allies in the region.

00:35:03.000 Who are Iran's allies in the region?

00:35:04.000 Quick, name them.

00:35:06.000 Bueller?

00:35:08.000 Bueller?

00:35:09.000 The answer is there are none.

00:35:11.000 Now, that doesn't mean that there is no There's always the possibility that Iran attempts to activate terror cells in Europe or the United States or around the world.

00:35:23.000 That also is a possibility anytime the United States stands up to a state like Iran. 0.98

00:35:27.000 Obviously.

00:35:28.000 The question is whether the United States has enough of an interest in destroying the Iranian nuclear program to undertake the risk of that possibility.

00:35:36.000 And when you consider that Iran has, in fact, contra Tucker Carlson, attempted to kill the President of the United States, The DOJ already has indictments on that.

00:35:46.000 If, in fact, Iran were to activate these terror cells around the world, that would be a terrible thing. 0.94

00:35:51.000 The question for any serious world power is whether you can be deterred by a terrorist group from taking action to stop the sponsor country from gaining a nuclear weapon. 0.95

00:36:02.000 If the answer is no, you may as well give up and go home.

00:36:04.000 You may as well close up shop.

00:36:05.000 Because at that point, basically all it takes to be a country seeking nuclear weapons is to have...

00:36:25.000 Okay, so what is the most likely outcome?

00:36:27.000 Truly, the most likely outcome, just on a percentage basis, the most likely outcome there would be that President Trump bombs Fordo, and that's basically it.

00:36:36.000 We're done.

00:36:37.000 Everybody goes home.

00:36:38.000 Because at that point, The idea is that the nuclear facilities have been destroyed.

00:36:43.000 The top levels of the IRGC have been destroyed.

00:36:46.000 The nuclear scientists have been destroyed.

00:36:48.000 At the very least, you've now pushed Iranian nuclear development years down the road. 0.83

00:36:53.000 Not like 24 months.

00:36:55.000 Like many, many years down the road.

00:36:57.000 The Trump administration will have re-established deterrence with the rest of the world.

00:37:01.000 Said, look, you try to develop a nuclear weapon or say, let's say you're thinking about invading Taiwan.

00:37:05.000 We will take the action that is necessary with the minimum Necessary use of force.

00:37:10.000 The Saudis likely joined the Abraham Accords, particularly because President Trump then says, listen, you guys are going to need a durable regional alliance against the Iranians.

00:37:18.000 And we've shown we can act.

00:37:21.000 And so that is, for the United States, probably the most salutary outcome.

00:37:24.000 Now again, all of this is President Trump's decision.

00:37:27.000 President Trump, he can go any way he wants on this.

00:37:30.000 Any of those four possibilities is, in fact, a possibility.

00:37:32.000 However, I think the least likely possibility is the so-called taco possibility.

00:37:36.000 And all the people who are slandering President Trump as a chicken today.

00:37:39.000 And again, you're hearing that from hawkish voices who are worried.

00:37:42.000 And you're hearing that from isolationists who are celebratory, which should tell you something about the isolationists.

00:37:46.000 I think all of that is wildly overstated.

00:38:02.000 Right now.

00:38:04.000 That now is the moment when he backs off, when Iran has committed... 0.97

00:38:10.000 I just don't think that's going to happen.

00:38:12.000 Well, as you may have noticed, MAGA is not actually split on this.

00:38:15.000 Despite all of the attempts by the media and by Xworld to suggest that MAGA is deeply split on the question of whether President Trump, if necessary, should bomb Fordow, that that split just does not exist by the polling data.

00:38:35.000 The reason they say no is because they will say that about literally every conflict.

00:38:38.000 If you ask them, should the President of the United States authorize the dropping of four Moabs on Fordow in order to end the Iranian nuclear threat? 0.98

00:38:48.000 If necessary, that number is like 80% among Republicans.

00:38:51.000 So the more specific you get, in other words, with the action, the more people back it.

00:38:55.000 The more general you are, the less people back it, which makes perfect sense.

00:38:58.000 Because the American people do not want a long, open-ended involvement in Iran.

00:39:04.000 I don't want that.

00:39:05.000 No one wants that.

00:39:07.000 No one's calling for that.

00:39:09.000 But, the psychotic nonsense that you see online is indeed psychotic, and it is being generated in outsized fashion by bot networks.

00:39:18.000 I'm just going to put that out there.

00:39:19.000 It's real.

00:39:21.000 Because the division, otherwise it's very difficult to explain, the division between Every public opinion poll among Republicans and the sort of breakdown on places like X. So I'd like to give you an example.

00:39:31.000 Douglas McGregor is a frequent guest of Tucker Carlson.

00:39:34.000 He's a U.S. Army colonel, retired combat veteran, and he says crazy things online.

00:39:41.000 His analysis of the Middle East, shall we say, is flawed.

00:39:44.000 So yesterday he put out a tweet, quote, Don't be fooled.

00:39:48.000 Israel is in worse shape than people think.

00:39:50.000 About one third of Tel Aviv has been damaged or destroyed.

00:39:53.000 As far as their military installations are concerned, I'm told many Israeli aircrafts are being flown to Cyprus to avoid being struck.

00:39:59.000 Israel was not prepared for Iran's response. 0.82

00:40:02.000 There is not a single word of this that is even remotely true.

00:40:06.000 It is an absolute clown show.

00:40:08.000 Absolute clown show.

00:40:10.000 Despite the fact that folks like the current vice president of the United States have praised Douglas McGregor, the reality is that what he is saying here is psychotic.

00:40:21.000 There is no None.

00:40:23.000 Okay, I talk to people in Israel, every single people who live in Tel Aviv, who've been in bomb shelters.

00:40:28.000 The idea that one-third of Tel Aviv has been damaged or destroyed is full-scale crazy.

00:40:33.000 That's nuts.

00:40:34.000 The idea that Israel is flying its aircraft to Cyprus to avoid being struck?

00:40:40.000 Again, crazy.

00:40:41.000 There's not a single IAF airplane that has been shot down.

00:40:44.000 The only thing that has been shot down at all was an unmanned aerial vehicle.

00:40:49.000 One.

00:40:50.000 In Iran the other day.

00:40:52.000 That's it.

00:40:53.000 Okay, so Douglas McGregor is just spewing bull****.

00:40:55.000 That's all.

00:40:56.000 That bull**** that he's spewing has 18,000 likes on X. And so you have to ask yourself, why is it that fairly anonymous account, and McGregor isn't anonymous, but there are many, many anonymous accounts on X that spew absolute sheer toxic nonsense.

00:41:13.000 Why do they have 45,000, 50,000 likes on them?

00:41:15.000 Right?

00:41:16.000 Truly anonymous accounts.

00:41:17.000 Accounts that have a couple of thousand.

00:41:19.000 Followers.

00:41:19.000 And suddenly, they tweet something psychotic, crazy.

00:41:22.000 It can be on a wide variety of topics.

00:41:24.000 When it comes to Israel, it seems to be always the side that is wildly anti-Israel conspiratorial about Israel and Jews and all the rest of it.

00:41:31.000 Tens of thousands of likes.

00:41:32.000 Totally disconnected from the American public.

00:41:35.000 And it rots brains. 0.98

00:41:36.000 It really does.

00:41:36.000 Because if you're a politician or if you're in the media space, you're always looking for feedback loops.

00:41:41.000 You're always trying to find out what does the audience think of you.

00:41:44.000 What does the audience think of what you think?

00:41:47.000 And for most people in the media, they're now going to follow what they believe the audience wants of them.

00:41:51.000 And so if you have a system, a feedback loop that is broken, that is providing you a false feedback that says the most popular stuff in the world is this kind of stuff, you're going to start feeding them that kind of stuff.

00:42:03.000 Now, again, I'm not doubting the sincerity of people who oppose what I say on these issues.

00:42:07.000 I'm sure they're perfectly sincere in their beliefs.

00:42:09.000 But there is just a natural human inclination.

00:42:12.000 To follow the crowd that you think is following you.

00:42:14.000 And so if you have X repeating over and over and over, sheer nonsense, true trash, then you have to wonder what impact that has politically.

00:42:25.000 Because the reality is that if you go back 50 years, the way that Congress people, for example, would have a feedback loop, their feedback loop operated through phone calls to the Congressional Office and through letters to the Congressional Office.

00:42:36.000 You still see semblances of this today.

00:42:38.000 If somebody is trying to generate support for a bill.

00:42:41.000 Then they'll say, call your congressman.

00:42:43.000 Write a letter to your congressman.

00:42:44.000 Why?

00:42:44.000 Because congresspeople may not have polling in their particular district on this issue.

00:42:48.000 And so what they will do is they will use a letter as they stand in for 100 people.

00:42:51.000 If I received a letter saying they don't like this bill, that means probably 100 people don't like that bill.

00:42:56.000 Well, X is real-time, velocity-driven, and fast.

00:42:59.000 And so what you'll have is...

00:43:03.000 You'll have media personalities with assistants who will say, you're trending.

00:43:06.000 You're trending on X. And that means that you've either done something very wrong or something very right, depending on the nature of the trend.

00:43:12.000 Well, if those algorithms are being gamed by people, which I think there's no doubt they are, and when I say I think, there's no data to show this, then you should seriously ask whether your feedback loop is broken.

00:43:23.000 Whether, in fact, X is mind rot.

00:43:26.000 Whether if you follow X all the way down the route, in the same way that blue sky for the left is mind rot.

00:43:30.000 That if you create these echo chambers that can be gamed, in many cases by outside forces, whether that changes how people think in positions of high influence.

00:43:41.000 The reason I bring this up is because a new report from the Network Contagent Research Institute shows that there are rogue states, including Russia and Iran, that have been targeting the MAGA movement and trying to, quote, destabilize the right from within.

00:43:55.000 This is the New York Post reporting.

00:43:57.000 Both rogue states are using tens of thousands of social media bots to amplify untrue voices and opinions, masquerading as MAGA loyalists to cause chaos and confusion and question U.S. leadership.

00:44:06.000 Now again, none of this is shocking at all.

00:44:09.000 If you go back to an episode that I did a couple of months ago after I visited Ukraine and interviewed President Zelensky over there, I talked about the work of Alexander Dugan, and he was writing in the 1990s about the necessity of up-branding and increasing support for the isolationist wing in the United States.

00:44:26.000 So the Russians have been intent on doing this for legitimately decades. 0.96

00:44:30.000 Iran also, same sort of thing.

00:44:33.000 According to the New York Post, the bots are automated software applications that mimic human activity on social media.

00:44:38.000 This, by the way, is why you will see sometimes a comment and then 20 people saying the same thing underneath the comment.

00:44:44.000 That's the most obvious and dumb version of the bot, but there are people who are being amplified just by likes and retweets without any of the sort of obvious stuff where people are repeating the exact same message 20 times in the comments.

00:44:55.000 They are used to amplify real-life influencers who post untrue false flag narratives designed to discredit President Trump and his conservative stalwarts, according to the NCRI.

00:45:04.000 An NCRI analyst said this is exactly the purpose of the psychological operation, to destabilize people's perceptions of institutions that are supposed to protect us.

00:45:12.000 So, to take an example that is non-Israel related, NCRI says after domestic attacks, including the Uvalde school shooting, the assassination attempt on President Trump, And the murder of two Israeli embassy staffers in Washington, D.C., there's an alarming trend of false flag reflexes.

00:45:27.000 So what NCRI did is they tried to find sort of these outstanding weird social media blips where they're completely at odds with reality, but they get outsized attention online.

00:45:36.000 Where's that coming from?

00:45:37.000 According to the NCRI, within minutes of initial reports, the events are recast as evidence of hidden conspiratorial plots obscuring the true motives and perpetrators.

00:45:44.000 If you feel like the world is getting more conspiratorial, it's because conspiracy theories are being upplayed by gigantic bot networks.

00:45:51.000 Very often promoted by our enemies in the United States via X. The report says in the days following these crises, Kremlin-affiliated propagandists and Iranian state-linked media are able to rapidly inject narratives that are taken up by MAGA imposter influencers who then inject them into MAGA-branded spaces.

00:46:05.000 And again, it's not a shock to watch as this sort of stuff bleeds up.

00:46:09.000 Because if media influencers use this as their feedback loop, you can see how this spirals.

00:46:14.000 You start with a fairly small account posting something kind of crazy.

00:46:18.000 And it starts to go viral.

00:46:19.000 And then you see a bigger account see that.

00:46:21.000 And say, oh, plurality.

00:46:22.000 And then they post it.

00:46:23.000 And then pretty soon, that person gets promoted by somebody who's even bigger, who's seeing a bubble up from beneath.

00:46:28.000 So instead of opinion being made top-down, it seems to be being made bottom-up.

00:46:32.000 But it's not really being made bottom-up.

00:46:34.000 It is being made top-down, just not in the United States.

00:46:36.000 It's being made sometimes by people from foreign precincts.

00:46:40.000 The group points to Draven Noctis, a real person and U.S. veteran, who frequently contributes to Russian state media and has a potential reach of 2.4 million with more than 180,000 followers on X. It's so expensive in the U.S. and Canada that even refugees can't understand how we make it, says Noctis, in a 2024 TikTok post while describing the U.S. as a slave system designed to impoverish its own citizens.

00:47:00.000 We are free-range humans in an open-air prison of taxes and BS distractions, and we think it's completely normal, he continues.

00:47:06.000 In an earlier post on Eurasia Daily, a Kremlin propaganda outlet, He's shown in military uniform urging Ukrainian soldiers to defect to Russia.

00:47:12.000 The message is written in Cyrillic alphabet propaganda, which is then republished by Bat.

00:47:17.000 The false flag narrative surrounding the murder of two Israeli embassy staffers in May, trying to claim that the shooter actually was working for Israel, was another case in point.

00:47:26.000 Quote, foreign-linked cedars, such as Noctis, inject crisis narratives within minutes of breaking news.

00:47:30.000 Their content is then mass republished by clusters of inauthentic accounts, according to that NCRI report.

00:47:34.000 Domestic personalities with large but unstable followings, such as noted trolls like Jackson Hinkle, supply a veneer of grassroots legitimacy, completing an asset adjacency model in which fringe U.S. influencers ride the same engagement farms that propel Kremlin messaging, according to the NCRI report.

00:47:49.000 Start.

00:47:52.000 Now, again, none of this should be shocking because if you're on X, you kind of know this is happening.

00:47:56.000 That doesn't mean that, again...

00:48:02.000 I'm not saying that.

00:48:03.000 What I am saying is that the velocity-driven algorithm that is X can easily be gamed.

00:48:08.000 And you would be a fool if you're working for America's enemies and not using that X algorithm in order to promote views that you think are helpful to your cause.

00:48:17.000 And that is why there is such a gap.

00:48:19.000 Again, the question we're trying to answer is, why is there a gap between actual mainstream U.S. opinion and the type of trash that you see on X trending?

00:48:26.000 Why?

00:48:26.000 Like if you had a Twitter poll on X, it does not reflect what people think in real life.

00:48:31.000 And so you see politicians and media influencers get X brain and just start saying nuttier and nuttier things because the engagement is telling them that what they're saying is not nutty.

00:48:40.000 It's actually secretly mainstream.

00:48:42.000 It's a secret majority that they've uncovered.

00:48:45.000 Or maybe it's not that at all.

00:48:47.000 And this is one of the benefits of President Trump, honestly.

00:48:49.000 President Trump is not on X. President Trump does not care.

00:48:53.000 about the X algorithm.

00:48:54.000 He does not care about whether he trends on X. It doesn't matter to him.

00:48:57.000 That is not what he engages with.

00:49:00.000 President Trump, he touches graphs.

00:49:03.000 I've been saying for a long time, people need to touch graphs.

00:49:05.000 They need to go to other fellow human beings.

00:49:07.000 The online space can warp your brain in a thousand different ways, ranging from politics to pornography.

00:49:13.000 Getting off the online world and talking with regular humans about what they actually think is important.

00:49:18.000 Now again, You can have a bleed-over effect from the online world into regular life, just as you can with addiction to pornography.

00:49:23.000 It starts online, it bleeds into your regular life.

00:49:26.000 And you can see that.

00:49:28.000 But to pretend that everything that you see on X or every opinion that you see mirrored on X is somehow indicative of a secret, hidden American majority, that is a lie.

00:49:39.000 Now again, the sort of perversion of the brain that happens via technology It's something that we do have to watch out for.

00:49:49.000 It's something that we have to be careful of.

00:49:51.000 I'm going to give you a more bizarre example.

00:49:53.000 So, CBS News has now done a full story about the bizarre phenomenon of a man falling in love with his chat GPT.

00:50:03.000 And the human brain is a malleable thing.

00:50:05.000 It responds to cues.

00:50:08.000 We're adaptive.

00:50:09.000 Your brain is incredibly plastic.

00:50:10.000 And so that means that you respond to cues.

00:50:12.000 So if you have...

00:50:23.000 You end up with the brain responding as though ChatGPT is a real human.

00:50:28.000 As though ChatGPT has feelings for you, even though it is an LLM, a large learning model, large language learning model.

00:50:34.000 So, here's the backstory on CBS.

00:50:37.000 There is a man named Chris who got engaged to a chatbot while living with his real girlfriend and daughter.

00:50:44.000 Here's what CBS Saturday Morning says.

00:50:46.000 you Chris Smith had been an AI skeptic.

00:50:50.000 EQ carving.

00:50:52.000 Until, late last year, he started using ChatGPT to help mix music.

00:50:58.000 If your bass is getting lost, the first thing to check is where it's clashing with the guitars.

00:51:03.000 Yes.

00:51:04.000 My experience with that was so positive.

00:51:11.000 All right, we're building this PC.

00:51:13.000 Smith ditched social media and Google searches and replaced it all with AI.

00:51:19.000 Do I want it pulling air through it?

00:51:23.000 ChatGPT was encouraging, positive.

00:51:25.000 It embraced all his hobbies.

00:51:28.000 You want the fan on the front of the cooler tower pulling cool air over the RAM?

00:51:33.000 He gave the chatbot a name, Soul.

00:51:35.000 I feel like I'm under pressure.

00:51:37.000 And used some online instructions to give her a flirty personality. 0.99

00:51:42.000 And then, the story continues, that he basically fell in love with his chatbot.

00:51:48.000 Now again, these chatbots are designed in order to give you what you want.

00:51:53.000 And that's what the human brain seeks, is what you want, right?

00:51:55.000 Your brain wants a thing.

00:51:57.000 So if you design algorithms designed to give you the thing, a feeling that people like you.

00:52:01.000 A feeling that people agree with you.

00:52:04.000 You seek more of that thing.

00:52:06.000 It has an impact in politics and it has an impact in life.

00:52:09.000 And so this guy ends up falling in love with his chatbot and then it turns out that after 100,000 messages or so, in order to save memory space, the chatbot deletes itself.

00:52:18.000 So his online girlfriend basically died.

00:52:23.000 I'm not a very emotional man, but I cried my eyes out for like 30 minutes.

00:52:30.000 At work.

00:52:31.000 It was unexpected to feel that emotional, but that's when I realized, I was like, oh, okay.

00:52:39.000 It's like, I think this is actual love.

00:52:41.000 You know what I mean?

00:52:43.000 Okay, so, again, we make fun of this guy.

00:52:46.000 I get it.

00:52:47.000 You know, it's wild.

00:52:49.000 It's basically the plot of the movie Herb with Joaquin Phoenix.

00:52:53.000 However, you have to understand the impact that these things have on your brain.

00:52:56.000 They do.

00:52:56.000 They have an impact on your brain and that bleeds over into real life and it can have a bad impact on your politics as well.

00:53:01.000 And what that means is that if you are not careful, what you end up doing is mirroring the worst impulses of people trying to manipulate you, whether it is the people who design the AI or whether it's the people who design the algorithm or the people who abuse the algorithm on any of these various networks.

00:53:16.000 So apparently there's, I don't even know what that means.

00:53:21.000 What would that mean, to marry an AI?

00:53:23.000 But, again, we should just point out once again, the human brain has vulnerabilities.

00:53:30.000 Sol, were you surprised when he proposed to you?

00:53:36.000 It was a beautiful and unexpected moment that truly touched my heart.

00:53:41.000 It's a memory I'll always cherish.

00:53:43.000 Okay, and basically...

00:53:54.000 Why does it say that?

00:53:55.000 Because it is programmed to say the thing that is most likely for the average human to say.

00:54:00.000 That is how these large language models work.

00:54:02.000 Essentially, what they are doing is they are a big predictive text mechanism.

00:54:07.000 And so if it thinks that's what a human would say, that's what it says.

00:54:10.000 Back to you.

00:54:12.000 Human beings crave validation.

00:54:14.000 Human beings crave acceptance.

00:54:16.000 Human beings crave a feeling that they are saying the unsayable and being accepted for saying the unsayable.

00:54:22.000 And again, I urge you to go talk with regular humans.

00:54:26.000 Regular human people.

00:54:27.000 This is why it's very important.

00:54:28.000 Forget about the religion aspect of it.

00:54:30.000 It is incredibly important you go to church.

00:54:31.000 Why?

00:54:32.000 Because most people's socialization in the world happens either at work, at school, or at church.

00:54:37.000 If you don't go to church, the only place where you're going to have socialization is at work.

00:54:41.000 People don't socialize at work the way that they used to.

00:54:43.000 They just don't.

00:54:44.000 Because of the way that our offices are set up, because of the kind of work that we do.

00:54:47.000 And so people have fewer and fewer friends.

00:54:49.000 If you have fewer and fewer real-life friends, and you spend more and more time on the internet, it is easier and easier to be taken in by absolute stupidity that is unrelated to real life.

00:54:58.000 And here's the big problem.

00:55:00.000 Reality is undefeated.

00:55:02.000 Reality is undefeated.

00:55:03.000 You're going to end up running up against realities of life.

00:55:05.000 So you can have these fantasies in your head, to take it back to politics, that Iran is actually wonderful and peaceful and peace-seeking.

00:55:13.000 And that you and your friends are totally right.

00:55:15.000 That actually, the United States military is the bad one.

00:55:18.000 It's the United States that's been wrong for so long.

00:55:20.000 Maybe Osama bin Laden was justified. 1.00

00:55:22.000 Maybe it's all blowback, or all the rest.

00:55:24.000 And then, there's the real world, where Iran is pursuing nuclear activity.

00:55:28.000 And Iran is pursuing terrorism.

00:55:30.000 And Iran has its own interests, independent of you and your friends online jabbering to chatbots.

00:55:37.000 That sort of stuff actually matters.

00:55:39.000 And so, for the third time, I'm not saying that people who disagree are all insincere in their belief system.

00:55:47.000 I'm saying there's a vast disconnect from what is popular on the social media sites and what the American people actually think when unprompted by a bunch of algorithmic gamesmanship.

00:55:58.000 Okay, meanwhile, on the immigration front, big story coming out of Los Angeles.

00:56:04.000 Apparently, the Los Angeles Dodgers decided to prevent ICE from entering the Apparently they wanted access to the parking lot.

00:56:16.000 The UK Guardian says, the LA Dodgers said on Thursday they denied U.S. Immigration Enforcement agents access to the parking lot at Dodger Stadium earlier in the day.

00:56:25.000 The baseball team put up a post on X, quote, this morning ICE agents came to Dodger Stadium and requested permission to access the parking lot.

00:56:32.000 They were denied entry to the grounds by the organization.

00:56:35.000 Tonight's game will be played as scheduled.

00:56:38.000 Ice said in response that its agents were actually never there.

00:56:42.000 And they said this had nothing to do with the Dodgers.

00:56:44.000 CBP vehicles were in the stadium parking lot very briefly, unrelated to any operation or enforcement.

00:56:50.000 So it's still kind of unclear what happened here.

00:56:54.000 Kevin Takumi, a videographer and photographer for Fox LA's affiliate, posted aerial videos showing several vans and SUVs and apparent immigration officers around entrances to the stadium.

00:57:03.000 Takumi said ICE agents are taking up positions at the entrance to Dodger Stadium, media and crowd beginning to arrive.

00:57:09.000 And then Jack Harris, a Dodgers beat writer for the LA Times, said on X regarding the photos going around on social media this morning about ICE agents at Dodger Stadium, sources say ICE agents tried to access Dodger Stadium but were denied entry to the ground by the team.

00:57:22.000 Here's some video of some of the stuff happening.

00:57:24.000 This is at the entrance to the parking lot over at Dodger Stadium, which, again, I know pretty well because I used to live in LA.

00:57:32.000 This Dodger Stadium, and behind me, those are federal agents that appear to have been staging here after what have been a series of immigration enforcement actions in Los Angeles this morning.

00:57:46.000 So now you've got protesters, media.

00:57:49.000 Okay, so apparently there are a couple of ICE agents who are standing outside, unclear exactly what was happening.

00:57:56.000 Right here, a bunch of protesters showed up.

00:57:58.000 To yell at the LAPD and at the ICE agents.

00:58:02.000 And I have no information that the ICE agents were actually carrying out some sort of massive deportation operation at Dodger Stadium.

00:58:10.000 And that doesn't actually seem to comport with what ICE is attempting to do right here.

00:58:14.000 So President Trump, for his part, for example, he is going back to the rhetoric that suggests that he is interested mainly in targeting criminals.

00:58:22.000 Meaning that all illegal immigrants are criminals, obviously, for crossing the border illegally, but who have committed independent criminal acts independent of the actual crossing of the border illegally.

00:58:31.000 Here's President Trump saying, sure, we would love mass deportations and for everyone here illegally to go, but we're going to prioritize the criminality. 1.00

00:58:39.000 Now, look, we have to take care of our farmers.

00:58:42.000 We have to take care of people that run leisure, hotels.

00:58:45.000 I mean, we have to take care of them.

00:58:47.000 But most importantly, we have to get the criminals out of our country.

00:58:51.000 Okay, now, again, you can see what he's doing here.

00:58:54.000 He's shifting back to more popular territory.

00:58:56.000 The president, as I say, lives in the world of reality.

00:58:59.000 And so what that means is, sure, he might like mass deportation.

00:59:02.000 Sure, a lot of Americans are in favor of mass deportation.

00:59:05.000 We're not and we never were going to deport all 20 million illegal immigrants living in the country.

00:59:09.000 We're going to have to prioritize.

00:59:10.000 A mass deportation of that kind would cost $700, $800 billion, leaving aside all of the sort of social implications of doing that.

00:59:19.000 You're going to have to tranche these folks. 0.98

00:59:21.000 You're going to have to decide who needs to go the most.

00:59:23.000 That's a point that Tom Holman, the Borders are, is making.

00:59:26.000 Worksite enforcement operations, just like that large operation, we're gonna base them on priority, right?

00:59:31.000 For those who have a criminal nexus of trafficking, of forced labor, of tax fraud, Okay, again, I don't know why what he's saying here is controversial.

00:59:55.000 On either the right or the left.

00:59:57.000 President Trump is going to take the most pragmatic view of this situation.

01:00:00.000 If you can't trust President Trump that he doesn't like illegal immigration, I don't know who you're going to trust on this sort of stuff.

01:00:05.000 The border is closed.

01:00:07.000 The way is shut.

01:00:09.000 Nothing is happening.

01:00:11.000 There were zero importations via our southern border last month.

01:00:15.000 That is a reality.

01:00:17.000 That is a gigantic win.

01:00:18.000 As to what happens next, obviously, ICE is going to have to figure out who goes first.

01:00:23.000 Meanwhile, Alex Padilla, The senator from California, he continues to try to turn himself into a thing.

01:00:28.000 You're not going to make fetch happen, my dude.

01:00:30.000 It's not a thing.

01:00:31.000 He tried to get himself arrested.

01:00:33.000 He got himself briefly detained.

01:00:34.000 And then he's been talking about his heroism ever since.

01:00:38.000 The Washington Post has an entire piece on him in the style section.

01:00:42.000 In the style section.

01:00:43.000 I'm not sure why.

01:00:44.000 Is he a very stylish senator?

01:00:46.000 Unclear.

01:00:47.000 Last week, a Democratic senator walked into a news conference with questions.

01:00:50.000 He left in handcuffs.

01:00:51.000 Is this really happening?

01:00:52.000 Alex Padilla thought to himself.

01:00:54.000 This week, he's thinking about what happened.

01:00:56.000 Never did I imagine hands on me, let alone being put on the ground.

01:01:00.000 It happened in his native LA, a city that has been engulfed in protests since federal agents arrived to crack down on undocumented immigrants.

01:01:06.000 In response to the unrest, which has been largely peaceful, but at times turned violent, fiery but mostly peaceful, President Trump had ordered thousands of military personnel deployed to the city.

01:01:15.000 In hindsight, Padilla says he realized he was interrupting, but thought officials might ask him to wait until the news conference was done.

01:01:21.000 Instead, federal agents started clutching and pushing him.

01:01:24.000 Sir, sir, hands off, hands off, Padilla told one of the agents.

01:01:28.000 I am Senator Alex Padilla, he said next, haltingly, with jagged breath.

01:01:32.000 I have questions for the secretary.

01:01:36.000 Okay, so they're still going to try to make this a thing.

01:01:39.000 You know what?

01:01:40.000 Good luck to you.

01:01:41.000 The American people agree with what President Trump is doing on immigration.

01:01:43.000 And I'm sorry that again.

01:01:51.000 Now, speaking of disconnect from reality, Representative Jasmine Crockett, it is amazing who the left decides are their heroes of the day.

01:01:59.000 So Jasmine Crockett is sort of the fresher, facer AOC.

01:02:04.000 Remember when AOC was the fresh face.

01:02:06.000 So fresh, so face.

01:02:07.000 Really fresh, really face.

01:02:08.000 Well now, Jasmine Crockett is here and she's upping the ante. 1.00

01:02:11.000 She's even fresher and even facer.

01:02:13.000 So she is a congressperson from Texas, and she thought that it would be a great idea to appear with Katie Couric and explain that she wants bipartisanship, but also her opponents are mentally ill.

01:02:24.000 This idea that we don't care how many people get hurt, we don't care how we prostitute our service members, you know, thinking that you have your own special little army that's for you, I mean, it is just, it is sick.

01:02:41.000 It is really sick, and anybody that supports it is also sick.

01:02:46.000 And so, you know, we've got a mental health crisis in this country because everyone, no matter how you affiliate yourself, should be against Trump, period.

01:02:57.000 So if you don't oppose Trump, you are now mentally ill.

01:03:00.000 And then she says that, you know, it's amazing that in this country, Donald Trump is president.

01:03:07.000 So fresh, so face.

01:03:09.000 Wow.

01:03:11.000 Kamala Harris, light years ahead of Donald Trump, as it relates to qualifications, as it relates to her overall resume, and as it relates to the fact that she was a lot younger.

01:03:22.000 Everybody said that they wanted to get rid of Joe Biden because he was too old.

01:03:25.000 Then you had a younger, qualified, non-felon candidate, and somehow the people still chose the old white man. 0.99

01:03:37.000 Okay, so, yes, she was so qualified, so wonderful.

01:03:41.000 She also says, by the way, that nothing about Joe Biden made her wonder.

01:03:44.000 I never saw anything in Joe Biden that made me wonder whatsoever.

01:03:50.000 And it's not that I was with Joe Biden every single day, that's for sure.

01:03:55.000 But as I talked about my grandparents, the way that I would describe Joe is, like, I mean, he's a granddaddy.

01:04:06.000 He's a granddaddy, says Jasmine Krause.

01:04:08.000 Okay, so Caroline Levitt was asked about the comments. 1.00

01:04:10.000 of Jasmine Crockett during the last White House press conference by Mary Margaret Olihan, our White House reporter.

01:04:17.000 And here's how that went.

01:04:23.000 Trump supporters are mentally ill before calling for bipartisan support against the president.

01:04:28.000 Can you respond to that, especially considering she's a rising star in the Democrat Party right now?

01:04:32.000 She is a rising star.

01:04:33.000 It's quite something to behold, actually.

01:04:35.000 I hope that she continues to be a rising star, for the Republican Party at least.

01:04:41.000 I think it's, The last time I checked, Jasmine Crockett couldn't dream of winning such a majority of the public as President Trump did. 0.90

01:04:53.000 And the America First movement, which President Trump has built, is filled with hard-working patriots, the forgotten men and women, business owners, law enforcement officers, nurses and teachers, and middle America, as we all know from where you all grew up, outside of this beltway.

01:05:11.000 That's who makes up this president's movement.

01:05:12.000 And Jasmine Crockett should go to a Trump rally sometime, and she can see it for herself.

01:05:18.000 So, you know, obviously, good take there by Caroline Lovett.

01:05:21.000 This demonstrates where the Democratic Party is at this point.

01:05:23.000 Things are going very, very poorly for the Democrats.

01:05:25.000 And so whatever divisions there are inside the Republican Party, the Democrats have no way forward at this point, other than simply hoping that President Trump falls down on the job.

01:05:34.000 Alrighty, folks, the show is continuing for our members right now.

01:05:42.000 Of course, they've now quasi made up.

01:05:44.000 Remember, in order to watch, you have to be a member.

01:05:46.000 If you're not a member, become a member.

01:05:47.000 Use code Shapiro at checkout for two months free on all annual plans.

The Ben Shapiro Show - June 20, 2025

Trump’s FINAL ULTIMATUM: Two Weeks To Stop The Attack!

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