The Ben Shapiro Show - March 17, 2026


We Are Winning. So Why Are They Lying?


Episode Stats

Length

48 minutes

Words per Minute

182.97334

Word Count

8,923

Sentence Count

634

Misogynist Sentences

12

Hate Speech Sentences

41


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

Transcript

Transcripts from "The Ben Shapiro Show" are sourced from the Knowledge Fight Interactive Search Tool. Explore them interactively here.
Misogyny classifications generated with MilaNLProc/bert-base-uncased-ear-misogyny .
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
00:00:00.000 Folks, don't fall for the propaganda.
00:00:02.000 Iran is losing.
00:00:03.000 Not barely losing.
00:00:05.000 They are getting scorched, actually.
00:00:07.000 One by one, the leaders of the Islamic Republic are being eliminated.
00:00:10.000 Generals, security chiefs, regime power brokers, all gone.
00:00:14.000 The Supreme Leader of Iran, Ayatollah Khomeini-E, is dead on day one.
00:00:18.000 Okay, fine.
00:00:18.000 No biggie, right?
00:00:19.000 The regime had a backup plan.
00:00:20.000 They proclaimed his son, Moshtaba Khomeini, an impotent, likely gay, half-idiot Moa, as his successor.
00:00:26.000 Even daddy didn't want that to happen.
00:00:28.000 Well, the problem is Moshtaba has not been seen in weeks, and he may be in a coma.
00:00:34.000 Meanwhile, Iran's command structure is shattered.
00:00:36.000 Their missile capacity has been slashed by 90%.
00:00:38.000 Whatever is left of the regime is throwing a temper tantrum like a toddler.
00:00:42.000 So the real question isn't why Iran is losing.
00:00:45.000 The real question is why so many people in the West are pretending they aren't.
00:00:49.000 This is The Ben Shapiro Show.
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00:01:02.000 That is what helps us do what we do.
00:01:04.000 News basically 24-7, the commentary that you want, all the great stuff from me, from Matt Walsh, from Michael Knowles, from our other hosts.
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00:01:13.000 So back to the game of musical chairs in Iran.
00:01:16.000 It is now looking like Ali Larijani, the secretary of the Supreme National Security Council of Iran, will step in as the leader.
00:01:22.000 I mean, here he was walking around Tehran just a couple of days ago.
00:01:26.000 I mean, there he is, right?
00:01:27.000 Everything's fine.
00:01:29.000 That was Al-Quds Day or Jerusalem Day.
00:01:32.000 It was established by the elder Khomeini in 1979 to express support for the Palestinian mission to destroy Israel.
00:01:38.000 Well, he's competent and cruel, right?
00:01:40.000 Well, last night, Larajani, who you might remember from such banger tweets as, quote, our leaders have been and still are among the people, but your leaders on Epstein's island.
00:01:49.000 Well, he is no longer among the people, like any people, because he's dead.
00:01:55.000 He was killed last night in an Israeli airstrike.
00:01:57.000 Okay, fine, I guess.
00:01:59.000 I mean, at least Iran still has Khalamreza Soleimani, the head of the Basij, that's the internal Iranian force dedicated to murdering protesters and quashing dissent.
00:02:08.000 Well, sorry, strike that.
00:02:09.000 Last night, Israel killed him also, along with other top members of the Basij.
00:02:14.000 And now individual basij checkpoints in Tehran are being struck with Israeli suicide drones.
00:02:19.000 In fact, according to the IDF intelligence head, a man named Major General Shlomi Binder, quote, their command structure is shattered, their capabilities stripped down to the bone.
00:02:27.000 What you're seeing launched now is whatever scraps they can still push out.
00:02:30.000 That's their ceiling.
00:02:31.000 The United States has so severely degraded Iran's missile capabilities that the government has been firing off in rather desultory fashion individual missiles, like a kid whose tantrum is ending but is still kind of sporadically kicking as he tires himself out and goes down for a nap.
00:02:46.000 On day one of this war, Iran launched 350 missiles.
00:02:49.000 Today, they are down to launching barely double digits.
00:02:52.000 Their ballistic missile capacity has been reduced by upward of 90%.
00:02:55.000 How about drone launches?
00:02:56.000 Same story.
00:02:57.000 800 drone launches day one, down to 75 on day 15, and even fewer yesterday.
00:03:03.000 Their ballistic missile factories have been destroyed.
00:03:05.000 Their drone factories have been destroyed.
00:03:06.000 Their nuclear facilities have been destroyed or heavily damaged.
00:03:09.000 Don't believe me?
00:03:10.000 Ask Mohammed Saloom, writing for, wait for it, Al Jazeera.
00:03:16.000 Yep, there's a gigantic piece in Al Jazeera, Qatar's propaganda outlet accurately explaining the toll this war has now taken on Iran.
00:03:24.000 Remember, Qatar is a half ally to Iran.
00:03:27.000 That alone should tell you just where things stand for the Iranians.
00:03:30.000 The Qataris, who play both sides, are now pretty clearly taking America's side.
00:03:34.000 As Saloom points out in, again, Al Jazeera, quote, the picture is not one of U.S. failure.
00:03:40.000 It is one of systematic, phased degradation of a threat that previous administrations allowed to grow for four decades.
00:03:47.000 The campaign has moved through two distinct phases.
00:03:49.000 The first suppressed Iran's air defenses, decapitated its command and control, and degraded its missile and drone launch infrastructure.
00:03:56.000 By March 2nd, U.S. Central Command announced local air superiority over Western Iran and Tehran, achieved without the confirmed loss of a single American or Israeli combat aircraft.
00:04:06.000 The second phase now underway targets Iran's defense industrial base, missile production facilities, dual-use research centers, and the underground complexes where remaining stockpiles are stored.
00:04:15.000 This is not aimless bombing.
00:04:16.000 It is a methodical campaign to ensure that what has been destroyed cannot be rebuilt.
00:04:22.000 What about the Strait of Hormuz?
00:04:23.000 We keep hearing that, right?
00:04:25.000 Well, the chances of President Trump allowing these straits to remain permanently closed are zero.
00:04:28.000 That is not going to happen.
00:04:30.000 And leaving Iran in total control of the strait just because Iran has a few drones and the capacity to fire them from the shoreline, well, this is, shall we say, a short-term problem.
00:04:41.000 Soon, the Iranian government will have much larger problems because it does feel as though all of this is a prelude to action by the Iranian people themselves.
00:04:48.000 President Trump noted that the Iranians will head out into the streets soon when they feel more secure.
00:04:52.000 Here was the president yesterday.
00:04:55.000 So the women had 250,000, even 500 people protesting a year ago, and they shot women right through the middle of the forehead with snipers.
00:05:06.000 And they didn't have to do many.
00:05:08.000 About 10 went down bleeding profusely.
00:05:12.000 And 250 to 500,000 women went running in the other direction because they can be brave, but they're not stupid.
00:05:23.000 And they have no gun.
00:05:25.000 And you have snipers in buildings specifically for this reason.
00:05:30.000 So a woman goes down falling, bleeding from the head.
00:05:34.000 And it doesn't take long for that to spread.
00:05:38.000 And when that spreads, that crowd dispenses.
00:05:42.000 And nobody else has been able to do that to the extent that these people, these people are violent.
00:05:47.000 They killed a minimum two weeks ago, 32,000 people.
00:05:51.000 And they put out actually a notice two days ago.
00:05:55.000 If you protest, if you protest, you will be shot and killed.
00:06:01.000 Well, something is going to change.
00:06:03.000 The time is coming.
00:06:04.000 Chief rivals to the Iranian people are being individually eliminated.
00:06:08.000 Right now, the Iranian people have the Americans and the Israelis actually flying air cover for them.
00:06:13.000 Yes, of course, they're going to have to brave death to take on the regime.
00:06:17.000 And they did that last time.
00:06:18.000 But last time they did that, no help was on the way.
00:06:20.000 And President Trump said, help is on the way.
00:06:23.000 And then President Trump acted.
00:06:25.000 What happens next will be in their hands.
00:06:28.000 All right, it's time to head over to the Daily Wire chat, see what's on your minds.
00:06:30.000 If you'd like to join our conversation in real time, head on over to dailywire.com.
00:06:35.000 right, Savvy?
00:06:42.000 So why do so many people seem to think we are losing?
00:06:46.000 We'll get to that in a moment.
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00:08:07.000 So, if America and Israel are winning, why do so many people have the opposite impression?
00:08:07.000 All righty, folks.
00:08:13.000 The drumbeat of lies is absolutely incessant.
00:08:16.000 Iran is striking at surrounding countries.
00:08:17.000 They're on the move.
00:08:18.000 The regime is more solid than ever.
00:08:20.000 Iranians are rallying around the flag.
00:08:22.000 Now, if you watch X these days, that might be your takeaway from the joint American-Israeli action in Iran.
00:08:28.000 Unending whining, caterwalling over a conflict less than three weeks old, in which the United States has suffered by any military historical standard, the lowest casualties in the history of major military conflict and has inflicted more damage by air than any combined air operation in modern military history.
00:08:46.000 Now, part of the problem, surely, is actual false information.
00:08:49.000 The New York Times reported just a few days ago, quote, that they had identified over 110 unique AI-generated images and videos from the past two weeks about the war in the Middle East.
00:08:59.000 The fakes covered every aspect of the fighting.
00:09:01.000 They falsely depicted screaming Israelis cowering as explosions ripped through Tel Aviv, Iranians mourning their dead, American military vessels bombarded with missiles and torpedoes.
00:09:10.000 Collectively, they were seen millions of times online through networks like X, TikTok, and Facebook.
00:09:16.000 The content has become a potent informational weapon for Tehran as it seeks to shake the public's tolerance for war by depicting scenes of devastation and destruction across the region.
00:09:25.000 Now, of course, all of this does play on the inherent weakness of the West.
00:09:29.000 A West filled with moral imbeciles with large platforms, like, say, Leigh McGowan, a person who I didn't know, except I guess she was on CNN, and has somehow amassed 2 million Instagram followers for brilliant commentary like this.
00:09:44.000 We did not need to be in this war.
00:09:45.000 We started the war for no reason.
00:09:47.000 We are the bad guys here.
00:09:48.000 Iran started the war in 1979.
00:09:50.000 We can't go back to 1979.
00:09:51.000 Yes, but we can't take away the fact that Iran are exporting terror and death to all of their neighbors.
00:09:56.000 They're a menace to their neighbors.
00:09:57.000 Every Middle Eastern country is with us on this.
00:10:00.000 Everyone wants Iran taken out of the game.
00:10:04.000 We are the bad guys here.
00:10:05.000 Remember, that was her line.
00:10:06.000 We are the bad guys here.
00:10:07.000 How sick and perverse do you have to be to look at Iran, a repressive tyranny that forces women into particular forms of garb and hangs gay people and threatens all of its neighbors and spreads terrorism all over the region and tries to develop nuclear weapons so as to better spread terrorism all over the region and say America is the bad guy.
00:10:26.000 How perverse or commentators like this over on MS. NOW, the other piece of this that I've found really disturbing in the messaging around the war recently and Eamon, I really want your thoughts on this in particular is some of the language and the description of their opponent, sort of the way they seem to create this image of the Iranians and all of their sort of proxies or allies, the sort of imagery that they conjure up.
00:10:53.000 And I think that it takes a certain amount of arrogance and, I'm also going to say it, a bit of racism, to constantly talk about people like they are savages.
00:11:02.000 That is a word that we have heard Heg Seth use.
00:11:04.000 Talk about people as though they are subhuman, too stupid to engage in a war with the United States, incapable of possibly outmaneuvering us, and then find ourselves in the exact position in which it appears they are consistently outmaneuvering us okay.
00:11:22.000 First of all, they are not consistently outmaneuvering us.
00:11:24.000 We are kicking the living hell out of them.
00:11:25.000 Second of all, if you can't label the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, which shoots people in the streets by the tens of thousands, or the Basij, or Hezbollah, or Hamas or the Houthis, savages I don't know when you would ever apply that term ever The perverse moral sickness of these folks.
00:11:43.000 And then, of course, there are people who are too dumb even for MS Now.
00:11:46.000 So, for example, the extraordinarily dim-witted Joy Reid, who actually compares America to Iran and says that basically America is like Iran.
00:11:56.000 Our regime has secret police.
00:11:57.000 They have secret police.
00:11:58.000 Our regime is oppressing women, taking away abortion rights, taking away women's rights in like 26 countries, 26 states, some states where they're trying to have the death penalty for having an abortion.
00:12:08.000 They also oppress women.
00:12:10.000 They have the highest rate of women who are in STEM careers.
00:12:14.000 We're kicking women out of the military, out of university.
00:12:18.000 We're saying that DEI means women can't be hired for high positions in the sciences.
00:12:24.000 So we're marginally better and we're doing it for Christianity.
00:12:27.000 They're doing it for Islam, right?
00:12:30.000 Well, we're doing it for Christianity.
00:12:32.000 They're doing it for Islam.
00:12:34.000 For Christianity, would that be allowing people like Joy Reed to have a major platform and continue to be a prominent person talking about how terrible America is in comparison with Iran?
00:12:43.000 And then, of course, there are dumbasses like Dave Smith, a comedian whose only joke is apparently his understanding of Muslim history.
00:12:48.000 He put out a statement just a couple of days ago: quote, Islam is such a violent religion.
00:12:52.000 Every time we murder a bunch of their children, they try to kill some of us.
00:12:56.000 Disgusting.
00:12:57.000 I mean, how does Dave Smith think that Islam became a regional power?
00:13:03.000 Literally, the entire history of Islam is conquest and killing lots of people.
00:13:07.000 Like that is a reality.
00:13:09.000 Then, of course, there is gym teacher stipping, Jewelaser theorizing genius, Marjorie Taylor Greene, who I have to say, the trajectory of her strange new respect is astonishing.
00:13:20.000 Everyone on the left recognized, actually, I think quite properly, that she is a double-digit IQ and a conspiratorial nut to boot.
00:13:27.000 And now, because she doesn't like President Trump, she's given a slot basically every night on CNN or MS Now to rip into the president's strange new respect.
00:13:36.000 And here is Marjorie Taylor Greene.
00:13:41.000 Why would an American president lead his political party into the midterms, waging a full-scale major war completely unprovoked on Iran on behalf of Israel?
00:13:54.000 And that's the way most Americans see it.
00:13:56.000 They see this is for Israel, not for America.
00:13:58.000 Why would an American president do that, which is forcing gas prices to hike right here going into spring break where families are going to be driving out of town, going into summer, declaring and waging a major, full-scale war that seems to have no end in sight, that is not de-escalating.
00:14:17.000 It's escalating every single day.
00:14:20.000 And it just doesn't make sense.
00:14:23.000 And the American people did not vote for this.
00:14:25.000 This is not what we campaign for, Pamela.
00:14:29.000 Okay, Marjorie Taylor Greene was basically thrown out of Congress by President Trump.
00:14:34.000 Now, listen, there are a lot of people, as it turns out, who are seeing this moment as a moment to take their shot at President Trump.
00:14:39.000 Now, most of them won't actually cite Trump by name because they're still afraid of him, but they're doing it anyway.
00:14:43.000 One of those people is Joe Kent.
00:14:45.000 He's a failed congressional candidate who was repeatedly backed by President Trump in Washington State, and then he was appointed by President Trump to head the National Counterterrorism Center as a deputy of Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard.
00:14:57.000 Well, this morning, Joe Kent quit his job at the National Counterterrorism Center and issued a scathing letter designed to undermine President Trump.
00:15:05.000 The letter is deeply, deeply conspiratorial.
00:15:08.000 It states openly that, quote, Iran posed no imminent threat to our nation, and it is clear that we started this war due to pressure from Israel and its powerful American lobby.
00:15:18.000 Now, that is conspiracy trash.
00:15:20.000 It's also kind of strange since President Trump has said that it's conspiracy trash.
00:15:24.000 So apparently, Trump is so deeply, deeply enthralled to those strange, powerful American lobbies.
00:15:31.000 We're not going to say it, we're not going to say it, that he apparently has been so bamboozled by them that he's still under the impression that he's his own man.
00:15:39.000 But here's the thing, President Trump is his own man.
00:15:41.000 He makes his own decisions.
00:15:43.000 And as per our usual arrangement, Trump's critics are cowards who are simply unwilling to acknowledge that Trump is the one making the call.
00:15:49.000 But Joe Kent continued, quote, early in this administration, high-ranking Israeli officials and influential members of the American media deployed a misinformation campaign that wholly undermined your America First platform and sowed pre-war sentiments to encourage a war with Iran.
00:16:03.000 This echo chamber was used to deceive you into believing that Iran posed an imminent threat to the United States and that should you strike now, there was a clear path to a swift victory.
00:16:12.000 This was a lie and is the same tactic the Israelis used to draw us into the disastrous Iraq war that cost our nation the lives of thousands of our best men and women.
00:16:22.000 Again, the idea here seems to be that President Trump is a moron, misled into war by nefarious Israelis and unnamed influential members of the American media.
00:16:31.000 Don't say it, don't say it.
00:16:32.000 Again, apparently, President Trump has no agency and no thoughts.
00:16:36.000 Kent's letter is replete with this conspiratorial idiocy, including, as we just saw, the idea that it was Israel that forced the original Iraq war, an idea totally and utterly unsupportable by any evidence given the fact that the actual prime minister of Israel at the time, Ariel Sharon, opposed the Iraq war.
00:16:54.000 This stuff is brain rot.
00:16:56.000 Now, listen, we should all be thankful for Joe Kent's long and honorable military service.
00:17:00.000 We can also be glad that he's leaving, since his ideology is the same as that of Tucker Carlson, the guy who says that the war is disgusting and evil and who has been busy sexting with the MOAs.
00:17:09.000 Tucker Carlson calls Kent a personal friend and quote, the bravest man I know.
00:17:12.000 Frankly, I think that it is a good thing that Kent is not in this position.
00:17:16.000 We cannot have a director of counterterrorism who is somehow advocating preemptive surrender to the world's leading state sponsor of terrorism in the middle of a war.
00:17:25.000 Now, the question here is not why Joe Kent would do this.
00:17:28.000 He's been a longtime devotee of a foreign policy utterly at odds with the peace-through strength foreign policy of President Trump.
00:17:35.000 President Trump, we played clips on the show, has been advocating for ending the Iranian threat by military force for, I don't know, 47 years.
00:17:43.000 Joe Kent, by contrast, is a devotee of Ron Paul.
00:17:46.000 He's also the same guy who suggested that the West was trying to manufacture a war with Russia and backed Vladimir Putin's aggressive play for Ukrainian territory as, quote, very reasonable.
00:17:56.000 The real question is why Joe Kent was appointed in the first place, and also which other members of the administration are trying to undermine the president from within.
00:18:04.000 It's not all that hard to tell, to be honest with you.
00:18:06.000 If you see a pro-isolationist story printed at Politico or Axios or a story from the administration, doubts inside the administration about the president's war, arguments behind closed doors, the president was misinformed.
00:18:19.000 You can bet money where it comes from.
00:18:21.000 Spoiler alert, it likely rhymes with Tulsi Gabbard's office.
00:18:25.000 I would assume that is why Dave Smith is now calling on Tulsi to quit too and throw her own punches at the president in the process.
00:18:31.000 It is also presumably why Candace Owens has been out there tweeting in support of Joe Kent and suggesting that the president of the United States is, as always, the real problem.
00:18:43.000 It's not just the grievance right, of course.
00:18:45.000 Some of these folks, like Pete Budijej, Choo-Choo Train lover, former failed mayor of South Bend, Indiana, but at least he's gay, simply spewing silly lines about how diplomacy with Iran was totally, totally, totally working.
00:18:55.000 I mean, it wasn't working, but it was totally working, you see.
00:19:00.000 So the Trump administration argues that they needed to take action to take out Iran's nuclear weapons program and Iran's ballistic missile program.
00:19:07.000 Because when they came into office, the Biden administration, your administration, had done nothing in four years to stop Iran from building a nuclear weapon, developing ballistic missiles, funding terrorism around the world.
00:19:18.000 Are they wrong?
00:19:20.000 Yes, of course they're wrong.
00:19:22.000 I mean, for one thing, the president assured us that the nuclear program, President Trump assured us, that the nuclear program was, in his words, obliterated just a few months ago.
00:19:30.000 And let's also remember that in the past, Iran's nuclear program was contained without a shot being fired.
00:19:37.000 I think President Trump thought he could get a better deal than the Obama administration did.
00:19:42.000 He failed to get that better deal, and he went off and launched a war without planning.
00:19:49.000 I mean, I think that we should probably listen to Pete Budig, whose latest tack is hanging out at diners and trying to look more tough and rough so he can run for president.
00:19:58.000 I mean, he does have longer facial hair than he used to.
00:20:01.000 Some are, like howdy-duty-looking creepy youth pastor James Tallarico promoting a rube bait about how we're spending too much money in this war.
00:20:07.000 You see, it's a misdirection of resources.
00:20:08.000 Listening to Democrats whine about how much money we spend is a brain rot of its own.
00:20:13.000 By the way, for the record, we are spending about a billion dollars a day on this war.
00:20:18.000 We spend in America every single day for the rest of time at least $20 billion every day, forever at the federal level.
00:20:27.000 Here is James Tallarico saying, the war is just too costly.
00:20:30.000 Oh, yeah, by the way, we should have universal child care or something.
00:20:34.000 I was in Sand Branch, Texas a few weeks ago.
00:20:36.000 It's a community south of Dallas that doesn't have any running water.
00:20:41.000 It doesn't have basic sewer infrastructure.
00:20:44.000 So every dollar that we are spending bombing people in the Middle East is a dollar that we are not spending in our communities back home.
00:20:54.000 This sort of rhetoric is always unbelievably stupid because it turns out the American government spends, you know, like $7 trillion a year.
00:21:02.000 But maybe you find these arguments convincing.
00:21:04.000 If so, that's your prerogative.
00:21:05.000 It's a free country.
00:21:06.000 But just understand, you are not hearing an accurate depiction of the thing that's actually going on.
00:21:11.000 You are very often hearing either politically motivated nonsense or actual agitprop designed to undermine America's incipient victory in Iran.
00:21:20.000 Now, again, this does not mean that we don't have some outstanding problems in the action in Iran.
00:21:24.000 The large of these remains, the Strait of Hormuz.
00:21:27.000 Now, for everyone watching at dailywire.com, let's head on back to the chat.
00:21:30.000 Let's see what DW members are saying.
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00:22:46.000 All righty.
00:22:47.000 Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, as we have been discussing, has been dropping precipitously since the beginning of the Iran action.
00:22:53.000 Western flags or linked tankers have stopped transiting in the waterway at least until the action is over or until they receive an American escort.
00:23:00.000 Maersk, MSC, HAPEC-Lloyd, they've all suspended transits.
00:23:04.000 Despite America's vow to ensure shipping, most companies aren't actually taking America up on it.
00:23:08.000 Meanwhile, Iran has been launching drones at ports in the area that are attempting to ramp up pressure on America to end the conflict.
00:23:15.000 Now, again, if America were to just do that, that would really be dumb because then Iran would be in basic permanent control of this vital choke point in global trade.
00:23:23.000 So what's the thing that comes next?
00:23:26.000 The Wall Street Journal laid out a few options this morning.
00:23:28.000 They wrote, quote, retired Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery, who has commanded a carrier strike group, recently laid out what a Hormuz operation might look like.
00:23:36.000 First, continue to degrade to a militarily manageable risk the missiles, mines, drones, unmanned surface combatants that could threaten U.S. forces and tankers.
00:23:44.000 Second, maintain an unblinking eye that looks 50 miles on either side of the strait and 100 miles back.
00:23:49.000 Third, keep four or eight aircraft persistently overhead during convoy operations, equipped with advanced precision kill weapon systems, a cheap rocket, 25,000 bucks, that is extremely effective against Shahad drones.
00:23:59.000 Fourth, have to arm helos ready to attack small boats that emerge.
00:24:02.000 Fifth, deploy 10 to 14 Aegis destroyers whose air defenses make them the perfect escort ship.
00:24:07.000 These surface combatants first need to be brought into place.
00:24:10.000 Allies could join later.
00:24:11.000 So that is one possibility.
00:24:13.000 It's time-consuming.
00:24:14.000 It's expensive, obviously.
00:24:15.000 Or, alternatively, President Trump could seize Kharg Island, as we have been talking about.
00:24:20.000 Kharg Island is at Coral Island, located about 15 miles off the coast of Iran, and literally 90% of all Iranian oil capacity moves through Kharg Island.
00:24:29.000 If we were to seize it, it would cut off Iran's export capacity entirely.
00:24:34.000 And that would likely either force the regime to negotiate an end to the war, or it would lead to sort of a final Iranian conflagration that might end in the fall of the regime.
00:24:42.000 Because when you don't got no money and when you don't got no oil going out, and when the United States is sitting on your entire oil supply, things start to get pretty rough.
00:24:50.000 So, what is President Trump actually going to do here?
00:24:52.000 Well, he's certainly not going to tell the members of the press.
00:24:55.000 One of my favorite games that President Trump plays is somebody asks him a specific question on what he's about to do, and then he just rips on them.
00:25:01.000 It's kind of funny.
00:25:03.000 Will it be necessary to use even a limited ground force to secure whatever nuclear material remains in Iran as part of that threat?
00:25:13.000 And secondly, have you made a decision?
00:25:15.000 You mean to go in and get it?
00:25:16.000 Yes, sir.
00:25:17.000 Why would I tell you a thing like that?
00:25:20.000 And secondly, you know, I can't send reports, sir, will you attack Karg Island?
00:25:26.000 Will you occupy Karg Island?
00:25:28.000 They asked me these questions.
00:25:30.000 And I don't want to be mean, but they're stupid questions.
00:25:34.000 If any president answered those questions, they shouldn't be president.
00:25:39.000 I mean, he's right about that.
00:25:41.000 But back to opening the strait for just a moment.
00:25:43.000 President Trump has been calling on our allies from Europe to Asia to help open up the strait.
00:25:48.000 These allies freely acknowledge that freedom of transit through the strait is, in fact, a key strategic interest for not only the United States, but for everybody.
00:25:57.000 It's just that they are too cowardly to do anything about it.
00:26:00.000 You know, as usual, as per our usual arrangement, they bring the empty talk, we bring the hardware.
00:26:05.000 As of now, Japan has announced they're not going to send ships to help us, even though 93% of all of their oil transits the Strait of Hormuz.
00:26:13.000 South Korea, same story, even though 70 to 75% of their oil comes through that waterway.
00:26:19.000 Britain has been offering us a few minesweeper drones.
00:26:22.000 France wants stability first, which is to say they want a partial surrender to the Iranians.
00:26:26.000 Australia, they're doing nothing.
00:26:28.000 China, of course, is on the other side.
00:26:30.000 They're aligned with Iran.
00:26:31.000 They're calling for an end to the war.
00:26:32.000 All this, despite the fact that an oil shock harms all of those countries significantly more than it harms the United States.
00:26:38.000 As the Wall Street Journal reports today, borrowing costs are surging across the continent.
00:26:43.000 Government debt in the UK and France is at or near the highest share of GDP in at least six decades.
00:26:48.000 So what are the Europeans actually going to do?
00:26:50.000 What are they fighting hard for?
00:26:52.000 They're fighting for green energy.
00:26:54.000 I know, I know.
00:26:55.000 Oh, the Europeans.
00:26:56.000 They are clinging to their fatuous emissions trading systems.
00:26:59.000 Those are regulations on carbon emissions.
00:27:01.000 As their prices continue to climb through the ceiling.
00:27:04.000 Here is Ursula von der Leyen, who is the head of the European Commission.
00:27:09.000 Without ETS, we would now consume 100 billion cubic meters more gas, again, making us more vulnerable, more dependent, and weaker.
00:27:24.000 So we need ETS, but we need to modernize it.
00:27:29.000 Oh, great.
00:27:30.000 I mean, they're focused on the right things.
00:27:32.000 So, that would be a yes on the solar panels, and that would be a no on joining America to end the terrorist regime in Iran.
00:27:38.000 So, let's talk a little bit about our vaunted allies.
00:27:42.000 We've heard over and over and over again that our allies are deeply important, that we shouldn't abandon our allies, that our allies deserve our support.
00:27:48.000 I've advocated for this.
00:27:49.000 I've been a huge advocate for that idea, not because I deeply love the French or the Germans or the Brits, but because the world is a chaotic place, and we would rather have countries on our side than aligning with our enemies.
00:28:01.000 But the time has come to discuss what makes a good ally.
00:28:05.000 A good ally in foreign policy isn't just a country we pay to stay out of the sway of the enemy.
00:28:10.000 A good ally should do four things.
00:28:13.000 First, our best allies should align with us morally.
00:28:16.000 They should share our general values and orientation toward the world.
00:28:20.000 We have strategic partners, and these strategic partners may change over time and not share our values very much, but our best allies ought to stand shoulder to shoulder with us in our civilizational outlook.
00:28:29.000 Second, our allies should minimize the help required from us by building up their own resources.
00:28:35.000 Mooching allies generally are not good allies.
00:28:38.000 Now, again, this doesn't mean that our allies won't occasionally need big infusions of help.
00:28:42.000 That's been true forever, or that they can always stand up to the predations of their enemies without our help.
00:28:46.000 It does mean they owe us an obligation to help themselves.
00:28:50.000 Third, when we call on our allies, they ought to answer the call.
00:28:55.000 After all, if we're a good ally, we'd do the same.
00:28:58.000 That doesn't mean, of course, that every country with which we are allied must pre-commit to joining every war that we join.
00:29:04.000 But when the strategic and moral interests align, backing out is not just cowardice, it is a form of sedition.
00:29:11.000 Fourth, and finally, our allies should engage in intelligence sharing and sharing of military capability.
00:29:16.000 This doesn't mean countries give up their own independent capacity, but our best allies should be in the air with us, in the water with us, on the ground with us.
00:29:23.000 Our combined power should be stronger than the power we have alone.
00:29:26.000 That, of course, is the purpose of an alliance.
00:29:28.000 So, here is the question: Are our key allies doing this?
00:29:33.000 So far, the only thing we've seen our allies saying is that they are on our side morally.
00:29:39.000 But when it comes time to actually enforce those morals, then they just disappear into the wind.
00:29:44.000 Here's the vice president of the European Commission, Kahakalas.
00:29:49.000 This is not Europe's war, but Europe's interests are directly at stake.
00:29:57.000 Okay, so if it's at stake, then why are you guys not doing anything about it?
00:30:02.000 And then, of course, there's German Chancellor Friedrich Mares, who freely acknowledges that America's action against Iran is justified, but then says, We will not participate in ensuring freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz by military means.
00:30:13.000 The war in the Middle East is not a matter for NATO.
00:30:15.000 Therefore, Germany will also not become involved militarily.
00:30:19.000 So, what are you good for?
00:30:22.000 Here's that tower of strength, Emmanuel Macron, on X. Quote: I have just spoken with Iranian President Masood Pazeshkin.
00:30:29.000 I called on him to put an immediate end to the unacceptable attacks Iran is carrying out against countries in the region, whether directly or through proxies, including in Lebanon and Iraq.
00:30:37.000 I reminded him that France is acting within a strictly defensive framework aimed at protecting its interests, its regional partners, and freedom of navigation, and that it is unacceptable for our country to be targeted.
00:30:48.000 So, you might want to do something.
00:30:52.000 Then, of course, there is the excrable Kira Starmer of the UK, who says, Opening the Straits is very difficult.
00:30:57.000 It's very difficult, which is why we're not going to do anything.
00:30:59.000 We will just let our entire country be eaten by the interests of radical Islamists, but we certainly won't do anything to open the Straits of Hormuz.
00:31:07.000 Here is Kira Starmer, a man who looks like a thumb with glasses.
00:31:12.000 But ultimately, we have to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to ensure stability in the market.
00:31:21.000 That is not a simple task.
00:31:26.000 Saying that we have to do something and then not doing anything is effervescently stupid.
00:31:32.000 So, they will all say some nice words and then they will do pretty much nothing.
00:31:36.000 But when the shoe is on the other foot, say in Ukraine, then of course everybody shows up at America's door, hand out, waiting for some help.
00:31:43.000 Here, of course, is NATO chief Mark Rudy saying, you know, the EU can't defend itself without the United States.
00:31:48.000 Yeah, we know.
00:31:50.000 We're aware.
00:31:52.000 And if anyone thinks here, again, that the European Union or Europe as a whole can defend itself without the U.S., keep on dreaming.
00:32:00.000 You can't.
00:32:01.000 We can't.
00:32:02.000 We need each other.
00:32:04.000 Okay.
00:32:05.000 But if we need each other, then it can't just be that you need us.
00:32:08.000 You have to help us when we ask you to help us.
00:32:12.000 We're going to move over to the DW members chat and take a couple of your questions live.
00:32:15.000 Savvy, today's episode is sponsored by our friends over at American Beverage.
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00:35:02.000 Now, I've been as strong an advocate as there is of the United States for continuing to fund Ukraine's defense against Russia.
00:35:08.000 Facing down Russian aggression is a key geopolitical interest of the United States.
00:35:12.000 There is a thin line between defending America's interests by helping our allies and enabling their dependency.
00:35:18.000 So, again, let's go back and reexamine those core elements of key alliances.
00:35:21.000 One, moral alignment.
00:35:23.000 Two, don't be a moocher.
00:35:24.000 Three, answer the call when we call.
00:35:26.000 And four, you need to help us with military intelligence sharing.
00:35:29.000 So, a lot of our allies fulfill that first element, you know, at least most of the time.
00:35:33.000 Although one could argue that their significant tilt towards surrendering to radical Islam at home and abroad is risking long-standing alliances.
00:35:40.000 But on the other elements, our allies need to be better allies.
00:35:44.000 President Trump is quite properly getting pretty sick of this nonsense.
00:35:48.000 Here he was yesterday.
00:35:50.000 Numerous countries have told me they're on the way.
00:35:54.000 Some are very enthusiastic about it, and some aren't.
00:35:58.000 Some are countries that we've helped for many, many years.
00:36:02.000 We've protected them from horrible outside sources, and they weren't that enthusiastic.
00:36:11.000 And the level of enthusiasm matters to me.
00:36:15.000 We have some countries where we have 45,000 soldiers, great soldiers, protecting them from harm's way.
00:36:24.000 And we have done a great job.
00:36:27.000 And when we want to know, do you have any minesweepers?
00:36:31.000 Well, would rather not get involved, sir.
00:36:35.000 They said, you mean for 40 years we're protecting you and you don't want to get involved in something that is very minor, very few shots going to be taken because they don't have many shots left.
00:36:46.000 But they said, we'd rather not get involved.
00:36:50.000 I just want the fake news media and everybody else to remember that that was said.
00:36:58.000 He is right about this.
00:36:59.000 Now, the point that Trump is making here is absolutely correct.
00:37:02.000 When he says we have tons of troops right now protecting Japan, South Korea, Germany, he is right, of course.
00:37:08.000 Here he was yesterday.
00:37:11.000 You have to remember, we have 45,000 troops in Japan.
00:37:16.000 We have 45,000 troops in South Korea.
00:37:18.000 We have 45,000, 50,000 troops in Germany.
00:37:22.000 We defend all these countries.
00:37:25.000 And then do you have any minesweepers?
00:37:28.000 And they say, well, would it be possible for us not to get involved?
00:37:36.000 Well, he is right again.
00:37:37.000 Okay, listen, we're constantly hearing from the chattering class and the podcastian contingent that foreign aid to Israel is expensive.
00:37:44.000 That's a fair enough argument on its own.
00:37:46.000 I've been arguing for literally decades that Israel ought to wean itself from American aid.
00:37:50.000 And Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the same people all these folks hate, said clearly to the president last year he wanted to do that.
00:37:56.000 President Trump said, hey, wait a second.
00:37:58.000 By the way, the reason President Trump said, hey, wait a second, is because it is military sharing that is the basis for that aid.
00:38:04.000 I mean, let's be real about the initiation of American aid to Israel.
00:38:07.000 It began because the American military-industrial complex was concerned that Israel is going to build its own fighter jet, the La V, that would be in direct competition with the F-16.
00:38:17.000 But let's also point out that for $3.8 billion in American aid, all of which goes back into American defense production, because Israel has to spend all of that with American defense companies.
00:38:26.000 The United States has access not just to top-flight Israeli military technology, like, for example, their very cool laser shooting down rocket system, but they are an ally that actually joins in our fights at the highest possible level.
00:38:38.000 Israel has actually been flying far more authorities, far more than the United States has above Iran during this mission.
00:38:45.000 Israel has absorbed dozens of missiles coming the other way.
00:38:48.000 Israel has provided the intelligence that led to the killing of Iran's top echelon and done the killing itself in many cases.
00:38:54.000 Israel requires zero U.S. bases and zero U.S. troops, historically speaking.
00:38:58.000 Here's Secretary of War Pete Hegseth explaining our relationship with Israel.
00:39:03.000 To our steadfast partner, Israel, your mission is being executed with unmatched skill and iron determination.
00:39:12.000 Fighting shoulder to shoulder with such a capable ally is a true force multiplier and a breath of fresh air.
00:39:21.000 We salute your courage and your contribution.
00:39:26.000 Now, let's contrast that with some of our other allies.
00:39:29.000 This idea that we only spend military aid on Israel is nonsense.
00:39:33.000 It is not true.
00:39:34.000 We spend between $5.5 and $6 billion on military bases in Japan.
00:39:39.000 We station 54,000 troops there.
00:39:42.000 In Germany, we spend $4 to $5 billion a year, and we station 36,000 troops there.
00:39:48.000 South Korea, $3.5 to $4 billion per year with 23,000 troops there.
00:39:52.000 Qatar, $1 to $1.5 billion a year and 8,000 troops.
00:39:56.000 Turkey, $300,050 million with $1,700 troops.
00:39:59.000 And Saudi Arabia, $500 million to a billion with 2,500 troops.
00:40:03.000 None of those costs include surges or special operations.
00:40:06.000 So, question, quick question.
00:40:08.000 How many of those countries that we are spending literally billions of dollars a year on have provided us direct forward support for our operations?
00:40:15.000 Zero.
00:40:16.000 Some of them throughout this operation have actually tried to undermine us.
00:40:19.000 That would include Turkey and at the beginning, Qatar.
00:40:22.000 These countries live off of our protection.
00:40:25.000 They have for decades.
00:40:26.000 Not financial support or military aid for an independent force buildup.
00:40:31.000 Our direct protection.
00:40:33.000 We have a tripwire force in South Korea so that we will immediately be drawn into any conflicts with North Korea so they don't cross that border.
00:40:39.000 We station troops in Japan to prevent Chinese threat against Japan.
00:40:43.000 Our German bases are a holdover from the Cold War, where we worried about a Soviet invasion.
00:40:47.000 So we stationed troops there for literally half a century.
00:40:51.000 Meanwhile, those countries, when we want their help, go totally quiet.
00:40:55.000 And instead, they spend their money building up their exorbitant regulatory and welfare structures.
00:40:58.000 So here is the deal.
00:41:00.000 We don't need different allies.
00:41:02.000 We need our allies to be better.
00:41:04.000 President Trump was always right to force NATO countries to pay up for their own defense.
00:41:08.000 But if NATO countries want America to help them out in times of common need, they need to step up as well when one of the world's chief shipping lanes is closed by an internationally recognized terrorist regime.
00:41:18.000 We can talk all we want about how we shouldn't alienate our allies saying silly things about invading Greenland or tariffing the Germans.
00:41:24.000 And I agree with a lot of that.
00:41:26.000 But if our allies aren't going to back our play when we need them, then we should treat them as what they are, strategic partners, not ironclad allies that make a call on our resources at their whim and then abandon us when we ask for a hand.
00:41:39.000 Meanwhile, domestically, we keep hearing that Republicans are in serious, super duper electoral trouble, that President Trump is suffering low approval ratings, that the public isn't behind the war in Iran, that Democrats are about to swamp Republicans all over the country.
00:41:50.000 And maybe that's true.
00:41:52.000 But there are some counter signals.
00:41:54.000 One, Trump's approval rating right now is actually higher at this point in his presidency than Bush or Obama.
00:41:59.000 Second, why are Republicans running almost dead even with Democrats in the generic congressional ballot?
00:42:06.000 Like really dead even.
00:42:07.000 While the legacy media have been focused on the Republicans these days, which makes sense given that Republicans have a trifecta in government, Democrats are about as popular as some forms of cancer.
00:42:16.000 Here's Harry Enton at CNN explaining.
00:42:19.000 I mean, Democrats in the minds of the American public are lower than the Dead Sea.
00:42:24.000 What are we talking about here?
00:42:25.000 Well, let's take a look.
00:42:26.000 The net approval rating for Democrats in Congress, you said it, Cape Baldwin, the lowest ever.
00:42:31.000 Overall, they are 55 points underwater.
00:42:31.000 Look at this.
00:42:35.000 Their approval rating is south of 20%.
00:42:38.000 It's even worse when you look at independence.
00:42:40.000 Look at this.
00:42:41.000 Negative 61 points.
00:42:43.000 That means that their approval rating is 61 points lower than their disapproval rating.
00:42:47.000 Quinnipiac has been polling this question for the better part of the 21st century.
00:42:52.000 They have never found Democrats, at least those in Congress, in worse shape than they are right now.
00:43:00.000 So what's causing this problem for congressional Democrats?
00:43:02.000 After all, they are speaking truth to power.
00:43:04.000 They're standing strong against the patriarchy.
00:43:06.000 They're fighting Trump.
00:43:08.000 Well, it could be that they remain totally and utterly disconnected from reality.
00:43:12.000 So just to take an obvious example, Democrats across America continue to promote the truly insane lie that men can be women.
00:43:18.000 I mean, they still have not stopped with this junk.
00:43:20.000 They still have not.
00:43:21.000 And that women somehow owe it to men to compete with men in sports.
00:43:24.000 Here's Arizona State Senator Catherine Miranda doing this routine.
00:43:29.000 It's all about a sports mentality growing up in sports, being a tomboy.
00:43:34.000 I mean, you look pretty healthy.
00:43:36.000 I've played against girls that look like you.
00:43:40.000 You look very much in shape and strong.
00:43:43.000 But it's a sports mentality when you're growing up and how much competition that you'll take on.
00:43:50.000 So it's not just a silver bullet for one community of sports players.
00:43:57.000 It's the individual person on how competitive you want to be.
00:44:05.000 Oh, so I mean, you're a big, strong woman.
00:44:07.000 Why don't you compete with the men?
00:44:09.000 Oh, goodness gracious.
00:44:10.000 Or maybe the Democrats are having trouble because they're busy complaining about voter ID, a policy that has the support of eight in 10 Americans in every single poll.
00:44:19.000 And yet, Democrats are very much against voter ID.
00:44:21.000 Again, I still can't come up with why Democrats are complaining about voter ID other than they kind of like voter fraud.
00:44:27.000 Like, I need an alternative explanation that makes sense to me.
00:44:29.000 I'd be happy to find it if you want to give it to me, Democrats.
00:44:32.000 Here's Representative Debbie Wasserman Schultz making the usual Democratic complaint, suggesting apparently people of minority ethnicity cannot figure out how to get a driver's license or something.
00:44:41.000 This is just about voters having to show ID and proof of citizenship in order to vote.
00:44:47.000 What's wrong with that?
00:44:50.000 This is about one thing, ensuring that it is much harder for people who are unlikely to go to the polls and vote for Republicans, and that making it much harder for them to cast their ballot.
00:45:05.000 Maybe people don't like that.
00:45:07.000 Or maybe they're in trouble because they continue to jack up their taxes and then lie about it, as California Governor Gavin Newsom continues to do.
00:45:16.000 We have the most progressive tax rates in America.
00:45:21.000 Texas, the most regressive.
00:45:25.000 Texas taxes poor folks more than we tax our riches.
00:45:30.000 The question for you is, who's the higher tax state?
00:45:36.000 California or Texas?
00:45:39.000 Who are you for?
00:45:41.000 Are you just for the 1%?
00:45:44.000 Or are you for the 99?
00:45:48.000 Well, you know, that's not true.
00:45:50.000 The top four states by overall tax burden in the United States are all blue.
00:45:54.000 Hawaii, New York, Vermont, and California at 11% overall tax burden.
00:45:58.000 Texas is number 40.
00:46:00.000 Florida is number 45.
00:46:02.000 Or maybe Democrats are still unpopular because they are keeping the Department of Homeland Security shut down, like even in the middle of an Iranian global terror threat.
00:46:11.000 I guess in order to make some point about how they don't like ICE or something.
00:46:15.000 Well, here's House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries trying to explain.
00:46:20.000 We've repeatedly made clear, Democrats in both the House and the Senate that we should fund the TSA, fund Coast Guard, fund CISA, fund FEMA, fund every other aspect of the Department of Homeland Security that doesn't have to do with ICE or Donald Trump and Republicans' toxic deportation machine that the American people are rejecting.
00:46:45.000 And for whatever the reason, Republicans have decided that they would rather shut down the whole thing than actually deal with a situation where we get ICE under control.
00:46:59.000 So we're in the middle of a war with Iran where they are activating terrorist cells and the Democrats are like, we have to keep DHS shut because we don't like ICE.
00:47:07.000 No, Democrats are, as Bill Maher says, stupidly counterintuitive.
00:47:10.000 Here was Bill the other night with Jerry O'Connell, the actor.
00:47:15.000 The kind of super woke people.
00:47:17.000 They live to have themselves thought of as the good people, as the social justice warriors.
00:47:25.000 So they're always looking for some new marginalized people to champion.
00:47:29.000 And of course, the very thought of it is noble.
00:47:33.000 And I get it.
00:47:34.000 And I'm an old school liberal.
00:47:36.000 100%.
00:47:36.000 They've always been there for this.
00:47:38.000 And they take it just 10 subway stops too far in places where it's just about making them feel like they're doing something.
00:47:46.000 And you know what?
00:47:47.000 You're not Rosa Parks.
00:47:48.000 You're not anybody who's doing anything.
00:47:51.000 You're just like trying to be this sort of social justice warrior.
00:47:58.000 Well, he's right about that.
00:48:00.000 Listen, Democrats may be banking on Republicans to lose the 2026 election all on their own.
00:48:05.000 Maybe Republicans will.
00:48:06.000 But even if Democrats gain power, they won't keep it for long if they keep pursuing stupidly counterintuitive policies.
00:48:12.000 So while President Trump is fighting a world-changing war that legitimately will change the face of the map for generations to come, Democrats continue to pursue their white whale, making sure that there are male appendages in the female locker rooms.
00:48:27.000 All righty, folks, the show continues for our members right now.
00:48:29.000 Like we've been asking our members for questions all through the show, like during the commercials even.
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