00:00:42.000The fact is that the President of the United States went after the military capabilities of the Iranian regime, took out the top level of the entire IRGC and the Iranian regime itself, including the Ayatollah, destroyed their air force, destroyed their navy, destroyed the vast majority of their ballistic missile launchers and facilities to develop new ballistic missile launchers.0.96
00:01:31.000The president is basically saying it himself.
00:01:33.000Here was the president yesterday, flanked by Howard Lutnick.
00:01:36.000And Marco Rubio, Marco Rubio, the Secretary of State, looks as though he wishes to Homer Simpson himself into the wall behind the president because he obviously is deeply unhappy with this MOU.
00:01:48.000I didn't want to see economic catastrophe.
00:01:51.000If you kept this going, that could have happened.
00:01:54.000But all I know is every time we talked about the possibility of peace, the stock market shot up like a rocket ship.
00:02:46.000I mean, the stock market will always pick the option that is least likely to lead to conflict because conflict is costly.
00:02:52.000That does not mean that conflict is immoral or wrong.
00:02:54.000But that's the reason why the president did all of this.
00:02:58.000The president was being told by people near him that if he had bombed Karg Island or the South Pars gas field, that this would have caused some sort of international depression.
00:03:06.000So, again, this is all economic calculation for the president.
00:03:10.000Just like I knocked out Karg Island, I knocked out everything but the oil.0.66
00:04:10.000So what does that mean for what comes next?
00:04:14.000Well, it means that after the midterms, once those elections are over, and again, the president is deeply concerned about.
00:04:19.000The economic health of the country right before the election.
00:04:23.000He believes that if the economy is doing better, if oil prices are lower, then that means that maybe Republicans hold the House.
00:04:28.000It means that Republicans hold the Senate.
00:04:29.000Okay, well, what does that mean for after the midterms?
00:04:32.000Well, I do trust that President Trump will start to enforce red lines after the midterms.
00:04:38.000The president was threatening just that yesterday.
00:04:42.000If they don't honor the agreement, or some things aren't even mentioned in the agreement, it's a memorandum of understanding, but we have an understanding of certain things without writing it.
00:04:52.000And if they don't honor that, we'll probably go back to bombing them until they honor it.
00:04:58.000You know, it's amazing what bombs can do.
00:05:02.000Okay, and the president, again, his inclination is to do that.
00:05:05.000And then he was asked, you know, about enforcement mechanisms.
00:06:50.000Well, you know, I certainly hope that they're not lying, but it's not concerning to me because I don't really trust anybody.
00:06:57.000And I think this is one of the things the president has told us to do in this negotiation don't trust any words that are written on paper, which is why I think, you know, both the good and the bad of this entire negotiation, meaning I shouldn't say the bad, the good things for America and also the good things for Iran fundamentally only happen through action.
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00:08:37.000It is, in fact, a memorandum of understanding, which is a vague term sheet.0.97
00:08:39.000Now, with all of that said, I think the optics on this MOU suck.
00:08:44.000I think that the president is making a giant mistake by signing this MOU because we could have just achieved the lowering of the gas prices without signing a total MOU.0.62
00:08:55.000If we wanted to bribe the Iranians to temporarily open the strait, which is effectively what this does, We could have done it by just walking away from the Strait and letting them toll the ships, which, by the way, would be the practical effect of the MOUs we'll get to in a moment.
00:09:07.000Again, my biggest problem with the Memorandum of Understanding is not the terms themselves, mainly because I think the vast majority of those terms will never be implemented or come to pass.0.91
00:09:45.000And now, because of this, it looks as though we just allowed a nation without nuclear weapons.
00:09:50.000Again, the entire point of this was to deprive them of nuclear weapons so they couldn't hold the world hostage.
00:09:54.000And now they're holding the world hostage over the strait.0.97
00:09:57.000And now it looks like we've allowed a nation, an Islamic tyranny that just murdered tens of thousands of its own citizens without nuclear weapons or a functional Air Force or a functional Navy.0.99
00:10:06.000Or a functional ballistic missile arsenal to call the shots.1.00
00:11:58.000But diplomatically, they certainly think they won.0.97
00:12:02.000Mohammed Khalibaf, who again is a mass murdering piece of trash, literally yesterday was walking around grinning ear to ear, talking about how what they wanted to achieve through military action they got through negotiation several times over.0.95
00:12:20.000He says, Look, whatever we wanted to get from military action.0.98
00:12:29.000We got through negotiations several times over.
00:12:34.000So, by not giving an answer, says the interviewer, we took advantage of, and he says, What did we want from there?
00:12:40.000You saw until 2 o'clock in the morning.
00:12:42.000Trump, the president of the United States, agreed to a ceasefire not only in Zakiya, he says he's lying about Lebanon, but a ceasefire for all of Lebanon.
00:14:03.000And the terms of the MOU, if taken from an optic perspective, are very not great.
00:14:08.000So the MOU, for example, says the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran and their allies in the current war.
00:14:15.000Again, this would be the United States signing up Israel and the UAE without either of them being signatories.
00:14:21.000Declare upon signing this memorandum of understanding an immediate and permanent cessation of all military activity on all fronts, including in Lebanon.
00:14:27.000Now, again, The vice president says that's not true.
00:14:31.000He says that Israel still has freedom of action.
00:14:44.000Are we taking the threat of force totally off the table?
00:14:46.000This is why I say the MOU is just an empty piece of paper.
00:14:50.000The MOU also says the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran undertake to respect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of each other.0.69
00:14:57.000That's weird because the Islamic Republic of Iran still chants death to America, which isn't really respecting our sovereignty.0.80
00:15:03.000And as far as the territorial integrity of Iran, what happens when Iran reinitiates a gigantic terror war in the Middle East?0.66
00:15:10.000Because here's the thing none of this is going to actually become a full agreement.0.63
00:15:14.000None of this will become a full agreement.0.67
00:15:16.000This is most likely to end up like the Gaza Peace Deal.0.58
00:15:23.000The president helped broker a deal where stage one was going to be the release of all of the hostages, alive and dead, and the Israeli pullback to particular areas.0.51
00:15:32.000Stage two was underpants, gnomes, and then stage three was world peace.
00:15:37.000A bunch of stuff was supposed to happen in stage two.
00:15:38.000The Palestinians were going to moderate, Hamas was going to turn over its guns, all the rest.
00:15:52.000The only thing that will actually happen here.
00:15:55.000Is that oil will flow out of the strait and we will bribe them to do it and they will toll things.
00:15:58.000That is what's actually going to happen here.
00:16:00.000So if I don't believe that the rest of the MOU is ever going to become reality, including, for example, a $300 billion investment fund, then why bother focusing on it?
00:16:08.000The answer is because if you do not wish for this MOU to become reality, then there must be pushback against the terms of the MOU.
00:16:16.000There are a lot of sycophants in the influencer class, some of whom actively fanboyed Iran during the war, who would love for this trash MOU to become reality in all of its aspects.
00:16:28.000My hope and belief is that the MOU is a stopgap, a poorly drawn, messy, optically bad stopgap, but a stopgap nonetheless.
00:16:37.000But the people who are cheering it want the thing to go into full force and effect.
00:16:41.000I mean, I understand the vice president who negotiated it is cheering the deal, pretending it's great all the way around.
00:16:49.000But so is Lindsey Graham, who's hawkish.
00:16:52.000I assume because the senator knows that it will never go to stage two, so he may as well not get on anyone's bad side.
00:16:58.000He tweeted out yesterday, I just had a very lengthy and productive discussion.
00:17:01.000With Steve Witkoff, again, one of our genius negotiators, about the state of play regarding Iran.
00:17:06.000After this discussion, it is my opinion that signing the MOU will be beneficial to the United States in as much as the Strait of Hormuz will begin to open and hostilities with Iran will stop.
00:17:15.000He wants the Strait open, but as far as the rest of it, he's skeptical it will ever come to pass, right?
00:17:22.000Whether or not the United States can reach an acceptable, verifiable deal with Iran regarding its nuclear program and other issues is yet to be determined, but I see little downside to trying.
00:17:31.000The signing of the MOU is an essential step.
00:17:33.000To expand the Abraham Accords and normalize relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel.
00:17:37.000Again, none of that's going to happen.
00:17:40.000JD Vance, of course, thanked Graham and suggests the president's coalition is uniting.
00:17:44.000He says the president's coalition is uniting behind his leadership and vision for a safer, more peaceful, and prosperous world.
00:17:49.000Again, no one here, it's funny, he says, you know, the coalition is uniting.
00:17:58.000I would just like to point out at this point that no one threatened the coalition except for the people who are actively against the war from the start.
00:18:07.000I think it is bad in a wide variety of ways.
00:18:09.000I also have never called the president the Antichrist.
00:18:12.000I've never threatened to form a horseshoe coalition against the Republican Party.
00:18:17.000I've never suggested that the president is a pedo protector.
00:18:21.000Now, when JD Van says the coalition is coming together, again, there's only one side of the coalition that was ever, quote unquote, threatening to leave in this way.
00:18:30.000But here's the thing the MOU is not a good MOU.
00:18:34.000So, given the fact that I don't think the MOU is ever going to become a real deal, Why am I pushing back so hard on it?
00:18:47.000The answer isn't all that complicated.
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00:19:51.000The reason I'm pushing back against the MOU is because if it turned into a real agreement along these lines, it would in fact be a disaster.
00:19:57.000A full deal that looked like the MOU would be a disaster.
00:20:00.000An MOU that looks like an MOU is just a mistake that is correctable.
00:20:04.000If it became a full deal, it would leave Iran permanently in control of what people have described as an economic nuclear weapon, the strait that they could close at literally any time.0.83
00:20:12.000It would give them hundreds of billions of dollars so they could later develop a bomb, all while allowing them to fund terrorism and rebuild their ballistic missiles.0.84
00:20:19.000It would be the JCPOA if it became a full deal, but likely weaker.0.93
00:20:24.000It would be bad, not just because of what Iran would do, but also because of the signal it would send to the rest of the world.0.91
00:20:30.000That a ragtag group of terrorists can push the most powerful military and the most militant president off the ball with some mines and some drones and some ugly words.0.88
00:20:39.000So, what do you think China would then do about the Taiwan Strait or Taiwan itself?
00:20:43.000What do you think an expansionist Russia would do about the Baltics?
00:20:47.000If you would like a world where America loses its global foothold, and of course there are some who actively want this, then make the MOU a full deal.
00:20:55.000All of which is why I believe that it won't become a full deal.
00:21:02.000Again, because there are people who are saying that they want this thing to become a full deal, it's necessary to point out that the MOU is bad and the president shouldn't have signed it.
00:21:08.000And certainly he shouldn't be out there saying the kinds of stuff he is saying to defend it.
00:21:13.000I know that President Trump, as a pragmatist, thinks correctly most of the time that actions matter and words really don't matter very much.
00:21:19.000But when it comes to the signals you send to the rest of the world about America's role in the world, words do matter.
00:21:25.000So, when the president defends backing off of all the rationales for the war in order to cut the temporary deal, that actually can have long term negative impact.
00:21:34.000It can be reversed if the president reestablishes the credible threat of force after the midterms, but the stuff that the president is saying right now is not good and it is not useful.
00:21:44.000Again, the president is now, after having said on April 17th that we would get the nuclear dust, this is President Trump saying this, April 17th.
00:22:56.000But every area of that, if somebody walks in and he's got a badge with his name on it, like Mohammed something, which is about a 50 50 guess, Mohammed something, they can tell the name.
00:23:11.000So, again, first we're getting the nuclear dust, then we're not getting the nuclear dust.
00:23:14.000The MOU itself says that there'd be on site dilution of the material under the supervision of the IAEA.
00:23:22.000So, again, this is why if the MOU went into effect, it would be a giant fail.
00:23:25.000Diluting nuclear material in Iran under the IAEA doesn't mean a thing.
00:23:30.000You can water the uranium, and then they can revivify that same uranium five seconds later when the inspectors leave.
00:23:42.000The Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, said that one of the goals was to destroy Iran's ballistic missile capacity.
00:23:49.000The purpose of this is to destroy that missile capability.
00:23:53.000Why does Iran want that ballistic missile capability?0.93
00:23:55.000What they are trying to do and have been trying to do for a very long time is build a conventional weapons capability as a shield where they can hide behind.0.94
00:24:04.000Meaning, there would come a point where they have so many conventional missiles, so many drones, and it can inflict so much damage that no one can do anything about their nuclear program.0.79
00:24:15.000Is put themselves in a place of immunity where the damage they could inflict on the region would be so high that no one can do anything about their nuclear program or their nuclear ambitions.
00:24:26.000Okay, so again, that was back in March.
00:24:28.000Fast forward to yesterday, and the president was actively saying that Iran should have some ballistic missiles because Saudi Arabia has ballistic missiles, which, again, that's really, really quite silly.
00:24:42.000I would like for our enemies not to have things to hurt our allies.
00:24:50.000So we'll be working on a parallel effort with the Gulf nations to address non nuclear issues such as the conventional ballistic missiles, which we'll be talking about, and support.
00:25:02.000I mean, they have to have some because other people have some.
00:25:32.000They hurt a little location, but they don't blow up the planet.
00:25:38.000No, missiles absolutely are a problem.0.87
00:25:41.000In fact, it was the ballistic missile umbrella set up by Iran in the first place that was the rationale for the war.
00:25:45.000And then, of course, the president doubled down on that later.
00:25:47.000Again, it is the president selling the deal right now that is the biggest problem because I don't think that there will ever be a full deal.
00:25:57.000Back in May, again, this is just a few weeks ago, the Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who again looked quite unhappy at this presser yesterday, as well he should, he said that the problem is not between Israel and Lebanon when it comes to Lebanon, it's Hezbollah, the terrorist group.
00:26:12.000The problem with Israel and Lebanon is not Israel or Lebanon, it's Hezbollah.
00:26:16.000Hezbollah operates from inside of Lebanese territory.
00:26:19.000They terrorize and attack Israelis, but they also are inflicting tremendous damage on the Lebanese people.0.57
00:26:26.000Okay, but then yesterday, the president said, That, yeah, we sent a copy of the memo of understanding to Israel, which tries to bind Israel, according to Iran.0.52
00:26:35.000And then he said he felt a little bad for Lebanon.
00:26:37.000Well, I mean, Lebanon is not the party under attack.
00:26:40.000Hezbollah is the party that is being attacked because they have spent the last several years firing missiles and rockets into northern Israel and then drones at Israeli troops trying to defend Israel.0.89
00:26:52.000And we did send a copy to Israel, by the way.0.99
00:27:35.000He's being told that, I assume, by his ambassador, Tom Barrick.
00:27:38.000Over in Turkey, who is enthralled to Erdogan, which is why the president has been suggesting that Syria should reinvade Lebanon, which did not go well between 1970 and 2005.
00:27:46.000By the way, Iran is openly promising at this point to help Hezbollah the minute its assets are unfrozen.
00:27:52.000According to the New York Post, Tehran reportedly promised the inflow of cash to Hezbollah as soon as possible, paving the way for the group to rebuild its military wing and political arm in war torn Lebanon.
00:28:02.000Hezbollah's communications office confirmed Iran's public support for the terror group, which it has propped up for decades, including a $1 billion transfer just last year.
00:28:10.000All right, we'll get to more in a moment.
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00:29:20.000And then when it comes to the Strait, again, the reality is that the MOU, if carried into full force and effect, if it became the deal, the MOU would leave Iran in control of the Strait.
00:29:31.000Quote The Islamic Republic of Iran will hold a dialogue with the Sultanate of Oman with a view to determining the future governance arrangement and maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz, in consultation with the other states bordering the Persian Gulf, and in accordance with the applicable international law and the sovereign rights of the coastal states in the Strait of Hormuz.
00:29:47.000So, Iran and Oman will toll the Strait.
00:29:51.000Now, the president again suggested that the strait would never be opened if we kept bombing for another three months.
00:29:55.000Well, I mean, we could have done Project Freedom, which is a thing the president himself tried to do a couple of months ago that lasted for less than 12 hours.
00:30:05.000Let's say we want another month, another two, three months, maybe weeks.
00:30:47.000It says the United States of America undertakes to allow use of funds and assets of the Islamic Republic of Iran that have been frozen or restricted upon implementation of the MOU, not upon a final deal.
00:31:48.000Or we actually don't have to do any of that.
00:31:52.000Now, again, the reason that I'm railing against an MOU that I think will never turn into a full deal is because the defense of the MOU by the president is wrong and he shouldn't be doing it.
00:32:11.000And I think that it is very important that people who are telling the president that if this MOU were to go into full force and effect, it would be good, are misinforming him.
00:32:19.000And if he believes them, he is making a large scale mistake.
00:32:25.000This is all very clear to Republicans five seconds ago.
00:32:28.000This is all very clear, including the president.
00:32:30.000If you flash back to September of 2015, here is Senator Marco Rubio talking about what would happen if Barack Obama's JCPOA became a law.
00:32:41.000I do want to be recorded for history's purposes before I know what is going to happen in regards to this if it goes through.0.76
00:32:48.000Iran will immediately use the money that it's receiving in sanctions relief to begin to build up its conventional capabilities.0.88
00:32:54.000It will establish the most dominant military power in the region outside of the United States, and it will raise the price of us operating in the region.0.62
00:33:01.000They're going to build anti-access capabilities, rockets capable of destroying our aircraft carriers and ships, continue to build these swift boats that are able to come on us, these fast boats that are able to swarm.
00:33:13.000And they'll make it harder and harder for U.S. troops to be in the region.
00:33:17.000They'll also work with other terrorist groups in the region to target American servicemen and women.
00:33:21.000And they may or may not deny that they're involved, but they will target us and raise the price of our presence in the Middle East until they hope to completely pull us out of that region.
00:33:32.000So he was right then, and remains right now.
00:33:35.000The president should listen to the Secretary of State.
00:33:38.000And again, I trust that all of this is basically.
00:33:43.000Just a delay ploy until we get past the election.
00:33:47.000But it is important that it not become permanent.
00:33:49.000Because again, at the very beginning of the week, I spelled out that there was sort of a good case scenario for the MOU, a bad case scenario, and a mediocre case.0.52
00:33:56.000The good case scenario would be that it would forward the original goals of the war.
00:34:01.000The bad case scenario is that it would actually reverse the goals of the war.
00:34:05.000And the MOU text appears to do many of those things.
00:34:08.000The mediocre case is that it opens the straight and doesn't do much else.
00:34:11.000I think that will be the practical effect.
00:34:13.000That's still not great, it is mediocre.0.92
00:34:16.000The thing that will have to be reestablished is the credible threat of use of force by the United States when Iran continues to violate all the basic principles the United States went to war to stop in the first place.0.94
00:34:27.000I assume that will be done after the election.0.89
00:34:29.000The biggest thing is that that MOU cannot serve as the framework for a full deal along those lines.
00:34:35.000That is the biggest thing, because that's what would turn the current situation from mediocre, maybe a delay tactic, maybe a pragmatic move to lower oil prices into a permanent L. What an amazing video you just watched.
00:34:48.000Well, you know, if you think so, head on over to dailywire.comslash subscribe to watch the full show ad free, or check out this crazy story here.