The Ben Shapiro Show - What Comes Next In Iran

00:00:00.000 So, what the hell is going on with these negotiations with Iran?

00:00:03.000 Well, here's the thing.

00:00:04.000 They're not over.

00:00:05.000 In many ways, they have not actually really begun.

00:00:07.000 Now, I have made it perfectly clear.

00:00:09.000 I think the president is making a mistake and the MOU stinks.

00:00:13.000 But let's be clear what it isn't a deal.

00:00:16.000 It's not the end of the world.

00:00:18.000 It's not even the end of the story.

00:00:20.000 It's President Trump as a pragmatist.

00:00:22.000 I may disagree with him, but that's what's going on.

00:00:24.000 We'll get to the full breakdown in a moment.

00:00:25.000 This is the Ben Shapiro Show.

00:00:35.000 Okay, so let's start with the basics. 0.97

00:00:37.000 The opening of this Iran war was good and righteous and militarily successful. 0.95

00:00:41.000 That is all real. 0.96

00:00:42.000 The fact is that the President of the United States went after the military capabilities of the Iranian regime, took out the top level of the entire IRGC and the Iranian regime itself, including the Ayatollah, destroyed their air force, destroyed their navy, destroyed the vast majority of their ballistic missile launchers and facilities to develop new ballistic missile launchers. 0.96

00:01:01.000 All of that was very good. 0.94

00:01:03.000 Second, the MOU that President Trump just signed.

00:01:05.000 If taken at face value, it is a total mess.

00:01:08.000 It is a massive problem.

00:01:09.000 We'll talk about that in a minute.

00:01:11.000 Third, we probably should not take the MOU at face value because it's not the end of the story.

00:01:18.000 What's in the MOU is not where things are likely to go.

00:01:21.000 So let's start with this.

00:01:22.000 Why exactly did President Trump sign this crappy memorandum of understanding with Iran?

00:01:27.000 And the answer is because the elections are in a few months and he's worried about the economy.

00:01:30.000 This is not a secret.

00:01:31.000 The president is basically saying it himself.

00:01:33.000 Here was the president yesterday, flanked by Howard Lutnick.

00:01:36.000 And Marco Rubio, Marco Rubio, the Secretary of State, looks as though he wishes to Homer Simpson himself into the wall behind the president because he obviously is deeply unhappy with this MOU.

00:01:48.000 I didn't want to see economic catastrophe.

00:01:51.000 If you kept this going, that could have happened.

00:01:54.000 But all I know is every time we talked about the possibility of peace, the stock market shot up like a rocket ship.

00:02:01.000 It never went down.

00:02:02.000 They didn't like it.

00:02:03.000 The people, you know, the stock market is more brilliant than anybody there is, including.

00:02:09.000 The people on this stage, other than me, of course.

00:02:13.000 Let's see.

00:02:14.000 I don't know.

00:02:15.000 What do you think, Scott?

00:02:16.000 Is the stock market more brilliant than you?

00:02:19.000 No, sir.

00:02:20.000 Oh, that's a terrible statement.

00:02:23.000 All right.

00:02:23.000 The stock market is quite brilliant.

00:02:26.000 And every time we said something amazing, like, we're going to settle, it would go up.

00:02:34.000 And every time we said something negative, like, guess what?

00:02:37.000 We're not going to be able to settle, it would go down very big, Peter.

00:02:41.000 Very, very big.

00:02:43.000 Tells you something.

00:02:45.000 Well, yes.

00:02:46.000 I mean, the stock market will always pick the option that is least likely to lead to conflict because conflict is costly.

00:02:52.000 That does not mean that conflict is immoral or wrong.

00:02:54.000 But that's the reason why the president did all of this.

00:02:58.000 The president was being told by people near him that if he had bombed Karg Island or the South Pars gas field, that this would have caused some sort of international depression.

00:03:06.000 So, again, this is all economic calculation for the president.

00:03:10.000 Just like I knocked out Karg Island, I knocked out everything but the oil. 0.66

00:03:14.000 I said, 25, it was so complete.

00:03:17.000 The only thing there is the pipes coming with the U.S. because I didn't want to ruin the world market because they do a lot of money.

00:03:24.000 But I didn't want to do that, no.

00:03:28.000 It would have been so easy.

00:03:30.000 It would have been easier, and I would have satisfied a group of 10% of the people, but it would have been the wrong thing to do.

00:03:38.000 And it could have caused an international depression.

00:03:42.000 Well, I mean, I disagree with that.

00:03:44.000 Again, this is President Trump being a pragmatist.

00:03:47.000 And I heartily disagree with his pragmatic assessment of the situation.

00:03:50.000 I've made that clear for months.

00:03:52.000 I think it was a gigantic mistake to ceasefire back in April.

00:03:55.000 I think we should have bombed Cargill and then ended the war.

00:03:58.000 It, yes, would have caused an economic shock. 0.98

00:04:01.000 And then the economic shock would have been over and it would have ended the Iranian regime.

00:04:05.000 But President Trump didn't want to do that.

00:04:07.000 He was concerned about oil prices in the midterms.

00:04:08.000 That's why he is doing this MOU.

00:04:10.000 So what does that mean for what comes next?

00:04:14.000 Well, it means that after the midterms, once those elections are over, and again, the president is deeply concerned about.

00:04:19.000 The economic health of the country right before the election.

00:04:23.000 He believes that if the economy is doing better, if oil prices are lower, then that means that maybe Republicans hold the House.

00:04:28.000 It means that Republicans hold the Senate.

00:04:29.000 Okay, well, what does that mean for after the midterms?

00:04:32.000 Well, I do trust that President Trump will start to enforce red lines after the midterms.

00:04:38.000 The president was threatening just that yesterday.

00:04:42.000 If they don't honor the agreement, or some things aren't even mentioned in the agreement, it's a memorandum of understanding, but we have an understanding of certain things without writing it.

00:04:52.000 And if they don't honor that, we'll probably go back to bombing them until they honor it.

00:04:58.000 You know, it's amazing what bombs can do.

00:05:02.000 Okay, and the president, again, his inclination is to do that.

00:05:05.000 And then he was asked, you know, about enforcement mechanisms.

00:05:08.000 He said, What am I supposed to do?

00:05:09.000 Take them to court?

00:05:12.000 So you're threatening to bomb Iran if they don't comply, but there's nothing enforceable in the deal itself.

00:05:17.000 Is that correct?

00:05:18.000 Does it have to be? 0.87

00:05:20.000 I said, Look, if you don't adhere to the agreement, I don't want to do that, but we're going to bomb the hell out of you.

00:05:20.000 I let him know.

00:05:28.000 And I don't think that they're going to veer from the agreement.

00:05:30.000 What else am I going to do?

00:05:31.000 Am I going to say, I'm going to take you to court?

00:05:33.000 Let me take you to court. 0.99

00:05:34.000 Let me sue you. 0.96

00:05:36.000 No, we're going to bomb the hell out of them if they violate the agreement.

00:05:41.000 Now, the president was asked about the fact that the vice president negotiated what I think is a pretty terrible MOU here.

00:05:46.000 He said, Listen, if it doesn't work out, I'll blame JD.

00:05:48.000 He's joking.

00:05:51.000 Is there some element to this where you send the vice president?

00:05:56.000 If it works out, great.

00:05:58.000 You look like a genius for sending him.

00:06:00.000 And if it doesn't work out, it's the vice president.

00:06:03.000 I like that idea, Sue.

00:06:05.000 This way, if it works out, I'm going to take the credit.

00:06:07.000 If it doesn't work out, I'm blaming JD.

00:06:09.000 You better be careful, JD.

00:06:11.000 He's going to turn his plane around and get the hell out of here.

00:06:14.000 Yeah, I like that idea.

00:06:15.000 I think it's a good idea.

00:06:18.000 And now, the vice president says that he hopes that Iran is not lying, but he doesn't trust anyone.

00:06:24.000 Well, then I think that if he doesn't trust anyone, then probably this MOU is not a great idea, but here we go.

00:06:31.000 Kia, which basically allows you to lie in righteousness, if you will. 0.84

00:06:37.000 There is Hudibiyah, which is the Treaty of Hudibiyah, which Muhammad signed in the 6th century, which basically says. 0.95

00:06:44.000 That's a way for them to retool and to rearm. 0.90

00:06:46.000 And this is part of their mindset.

00:06:48.000 It's a theology.

00:06:49.000 How concerning is that to you?

00:06:50.000 Well, you know, I certainly hope that they're not lying, but it's not concerning to me because I don't really trust anybody.

00:06:57.000 And I think this is one of the things the president has told us to do in this negotiation don't trust any words that are written on paper, which is why I think, you know, both the good and the bad of this entire negotiation, meaning I shouldn't say the bad, the good things for America and also the good things for Iran fundamentally only happen through action.

00:07:16.000 All right, coming up, we'll get to.

00:07:18.000 The real problem with the MOU, because again, I don't think it's going to turn into a real deal.

00:07:22.000 So what's the problem with the MOU?

00:07:23.000 We'll explain in a moment.

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00:08:30.000 Okay, so what does this say?

00:08:32.000 It says, again, the MOU is not, in fact, a deal.

00:08:35.000 It is not a deal to end the war.

00:08:37.000 It is, in fact, a memorandum of understanding, which is a vague term sheet. 0.97

00:08:39.000 Now, with all of that said, I think the optics on this MOU suck.

00:08:44.000 I think that the president is making a giant mistake by signing this MOU because we could have just achieved the lowering of the gas prices without signing a total MOU. 0.62

00:08:55.000 If we wanted to bribe the Iranians to temporarily open the strait, which is effectively what this does, We could have done it by just walking away from the Strait and letting them toll the ships, which, by the way, would be the practical effect of the MOUs we'll get to in a moment.

00:09:07.000 Again, my biggest problem with the Memorandum of Understanding is not the terms themselves, mainly because I think the vast majority of those terms will never be implemented or come to pass. 0.91

00:09:16.000 My problem is the optics. 1.00

00:09:18.000 And I hope that the Iranian optic win here is temporary. 1.00

00:09:22.000 Because here's the thing we wrecked them, we handed them one of the most giant L's in human history. 1.00

00:09:29.000 We literally killed their entire leadership class and then did it again.

00:09:33.000 And destroyed their entire Air Force and their entire Navy and their ballistic missile launchers.

00:09:38.000 We put their economy on life support.

00:09:41.000 We blockaded all of their ships.

00:09:43.000 We projected power.

00:09:44.000 It made America look strong.

00:09:45.000 And now, because of this, it looks as though we just allowed a nation without nuclear weapons.

00:09:50.000 Again, the entire point of this was to deprive them of nuclear weapons so they couldn't hold the world hostage.

00:09:54.000 And now they're holding the world hostage over the strait. 0.97

00:09:57.000 And now it looks like we've allowed a nation, an Islamic tyranny that just murdered tens of thousands of its own citizens without nuclear weapons or a functional Air Force or a functional Navy. 0.99

00:10:06.000 Or a functional ballistic missile arsenal to call the shots. 1.00

00:10:10.000 And that's a mistake.

00:10:12.000 It's a mistake I trust will be reversed by the president because he's a pragmatist.

00:10:15.000 And I don't think President Trump wants to look weak.

00:10:18.000 Right now, he does look weak.

00:10:20.000 I trust that after the midterms, he will course correct and reestablish America's credible threat of force.

00:10:25.000 For now, however, it's not a good look, even if we understand the pragmatic concerns about the oil prices.

00:10:31.000 It is just not a great look to sign an MOU next to Emmanuel Macron at Versailles.

00:10:34.000 Can we think of a time in history when a treaty at Versailles has gone wrong?

00:10:38.000 Hmm?

00:10:39.000 Quick quiz question.

00:10:40.000 Here's the president doing this yesterday. 0.87

00:10:48.000 Here he is signing the agreement, which of course the Iranians immediately touted this.

00:10:53.000 Mahmoud Pazeshkian, who is the leader of the president of Iran, people cheering.

00:11:01.000 Here's Pazeshkian holding up a copy.

00:11:03.000 They released this photo.

00:11:04.000 He's very excited.

00:11:06.000 In fact, the United States and Iran signed the deal ahead of schedule.

00:11:09.000 They were supposed to sign it on Friday.

00:11:11.000 Originally, it was supposed to be the vice president signing it in person.

00:11:16.000 There's still supposed to be a meeting between the vice president.

00:11:18.000 And Iranian parliamentary speaker Mohammed Khalibaf on Friday.

00:11:23.000 President Trump admits that we only had a military victory.

00:11:25.000 There was no diplomatic victory here.

00:11:29.000 A wise man once said in January of 2020 Iran never won a war, but never lost a negotiation. 0.97

00:11:39.000 That wise man. 0.97

00:11:40.000 Who said that?

00:11:41.000 Donald Trump.

00:11:42.000 That's what I thought you were going to say.

00:11:43.000 So, how do you go back to the United States and convince a skeptical American public that this deal is a win?

00:11:51.000 Here they lost militarily, okay?

00:11:55.000 Okay, yes, they did.

00:11:56.000 They did lose militarily.

00:11:58.000 But diplomatically, they certainly think they won. 0.97

00:12:02.000 Mohammed Khalibaf, who again is a mass murdering piece of trash, literally yesterday was walking around grinning ear to ear, talking about how what they wanted to achieve through military action they got through negotiation several times over. 0.95

00:12:20.000 He says, Look, whatever we wanted to get from military action. 0.98

00:12:24.000 Look at that grin.

00:12:27.000 He is the happiest camper.

00:12:29.000 We got through negotiations several times over.

00:12:34.000 So, by not giving an answer, says the interviewer, we took advantage of, and he says, What did we want from there?

00:12:40.000 You saw until 2 o'clock in the morning.

00:12:42.000 Trump, the president of the United States, agreed to a ceasefire not only in Zakiya, he says he's lying about Lebanon, but a ceasefire for all of Lebanon.

00:12:52.000 He's claiming they won in Lebanon.

00:12:54.000 And with that manner, he did not talk to Netanyahu about it.

00:12:59.000 This negotiation was a struggle. 0.98

00:13:00.000 Again, the Iranians believe they won the negotiation and they are grinning about it. 0.99

00:13:05.000 Khalibaf is grinning ear to ear.

00:13:06.000 Is that a good optic look for the United States?

00:13:08.000 The answer, of course, is no.

00:13:09.000 The president also claimed that China was great during this negotiation.

00:13:12.000 Spoiler alert, they weren't. 0.99

00:13:14.000 They were using Pakistan as their cutout. 0.75

00:13:15.000 And by the way, China and Russia were resupplying Iran throughout the conflict.

00:13:19.000 Russia was providing Iran a target list of American targets during the conflict.

00:13:24.000 But here was the president going out of his way to compliment China.

00:13:28.000 So, I think China's been terrific.

00:13:29.000 I tell you that before. 1.00

00:13:31.000 They could have been bad.

00:13:33.000 They could have sent in to try and block or break the blockade.

00:13:39.000 They could have sent in an oil ship with six destroyers alongside of it on each side.

00:13:44.000 They didn't do that.

00:13:47.000 President Xi helped me.

00:13:48.000 He tried to help, and I think he probably helped get it solved. 1.00

00:13:53.000 Well, he certainly helped the Iranians.

00:13:55.000 Khalibaf himself tweeted out that Iran was committed to a win win partnership.

00:13:59.000 With China.

00:14:00.000 Again, the optics here, not great.

00:14:03.000 And the terms of the MOU, if taken from an optic perspective, are very not great.

00:14:08.000 So the MOU, for example, says the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran and their allies in the current war.

00:14:15.000 Again, this would be the United States signing up Israel and the UAE without either of them being signatories.

00:14:21.000 Declare upon signing this memorandum of understanding an immediate and permanent cessation of all military activity on all fronts, including in Lebanon.

00:14:27.000 Now, again, The vice president says that's not true.

00:14:31.000 He says that Israel still has freedom of action.

00:14:32.000 The Israelis say it's not true.

00:14:33.000 They still have freedom of action.

00:14:35.000 That's not what the Iranians believe, obviously.

00:14:37.000 And saying that all military activity will stop immediately and permanent.

00:14:43.000 Permanent?

00:14:44.000 Are we taking the threat of force totally off the table?

00:14:46.000 This is why I say the MOU is just an empty piece of paper.

00:14:50.000 The MOU also says the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran undertake to respect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of each other. 0.69

00:14:57.000 That's weird because the Islamic Republic of Iran still chants death to America, which isn't really respecting our sovereignty. 0.80

00:15:03.000 And as far as the territorial integrity of Iran, what happens when Iran reinitiates a gigantic terror war in the Middle East? 0.66

00:15:10.000 Because here's the thing none of this is going to actually become a full agreement. 0.63

00:15:14.000 None of this will become a full agreement. 0.67

00:15:16.000 This is most likely to end up like the Gaza Peace Deal. 0.58

00:15:19.000 You remember the Gaza Peace Deal?

00:15:20.000 Happened last year.

00:15:21.000 Remember this?

00:15:23.000 The president helped broker a deal where stage one was going to be the release of all of the hostages, alive and dead, and the Israeli pullback to particular areas. 0.51

00:15:32.000 Stage two was underpants, gnomes, and then stage three was world peace.

00:15:37.000 A bunch of stuff was supposed to happen in stage two.

00:15:38.000 The Palestinians were going to moderate, Hamas was going to turn over its guns, all the rest.

00:15:42.000 None of that ever happened.

00:15:43.000 We are still at stage two, and we will be at stage two forever because stage one was the whole thing.

00:15:50.000 The MOU will be the same thing.

00:15:52.000 The only thing that will actually happen here.

00:15:55.000 Is that oil will flow out of the strait and we will bribe them to do it and they will toll things.

00:15:58.000 That is what's actually going to happen here.

00:16:00.000 So if I don't believe that the rest of the MOU is ever going to become reality, including, for example, a $300 billion investment fund, then why bother focusing on it?

00:16:08.000 The answer is because if you do not wish for this MOU to become reality, then there must be pushback against the terms of the MOU.

00:16:16.000 There are a lot of sycophants in the influencer class, some of whom actively fanboyed Iran during the war, who would love for this trash MOU to become reality in all of its aspects.

00:16:26.000 And that should not be the case.

00:16:28.000 My hope and belief is that the MOU is a stopgap, a poorly drawn, messy, optically bad stopgap, but a stopgap nonetheless.

00:16:37.000 But the people who are cheering it want the thing to go into full force and effect.

00:16:41.000 I mean, I understand the vice president who negotiated it is cheering the deal, pretending it's great all the way around.

00:16:49.000 But so is Lindsey Graham, who's hawkish.

00:16:52.000 I assume because the senator knows that it will never go to stage two, so he may as well not get on anyone's bad side.

00:16:58.000 He tweeted out yesterday, I just had a very lengthy and productive discussion.

00:17:01.000 With Steve Witkoff, again, one of our genius negotiators, about the state of play regarding Iran.

00:17:06.000 After this discussion, it is my opinion that signing the MOU will be beneficial to the United States in as much as the Strait of Hormuz will begin to open and hostilities with Iran will stop.

00:17:13.000 Now, again, notice what he's saying.

00:17:15.000 He wants the Strait open, but as far as the rest of it, he's skeptical it will ever come to pass, right?

00:17:22.000 Whether or not the United States can reach an acceptable, verifiable deal with Iran regarding its nuclear program and other issues is yet to be determined, but I see little downside to trying.

00:17:31.000 The signing of the MOU is an essential step.

00:17:33.000 To expand the Abraham Accords and normalize relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel.

00:17:37.000 Again, none of that's going to happen.

00:17:40.000 JD Vance, of course, thanked Graham and suggests the president's coalition is uniting.

00:17:44.000 He says the president's coalition is uniting behind his leadership and vision for a safer, more peaceful, and prosperous world.

00:17:49.000 Again, no one here, it's funny, he says, you know, the coalition is uniting.

00:17:55.000 Okay, the coalition is uniting.

00:17:58.000 I would just like to point out at this point that no one threatened the coalition except for the people who are actively against the war from the start.

00:18:06.000 I disagree with the MOU.

00:18:07.000 I think it is bad in a wide variety of ways.

00:18:09.000 I also have never called the president the Antichrist.

00:18:12.000 I've never threatened to form a horseshoe coalition against the Republican Party.

00:18:17.000 I've never suggested that the president is a pedo protector.

00:18:21.000 Now, when JD Van says the coalition is coming together, again, there's only one side of the coalition that was ever, quote unquote, threatening to leave in this way.

00:18:30.000 But here's the thing the MOU is not a good MOU.

00:18:34.000 So, given the fact that I don't think the MOU is ever going to become a real deal, Why am I pushing back so hard on it?

00:18:39.000 I'll explain in just a moment.

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00:19:51.000 The reason I'm pushing back against the MOU is because if it turned into a real agreement along these lines, it would in fact be a disaster.

00:19:57.000 A full deal that looked like the MOU would be a disaster.

00:20:00.000 An MOU that looks like an MOU is just a mistake that is correctable.

00:20:04.000 If it became a full deal, it would leave Iran permanently in control of what people have described as an economic nuclear weapon, the strait that they could close at literally any time. 0.83

00:20:12.000 It would give them hundreds of billions of dollars so they could later develop a bomb, all while allowing them to fund terrorism and rebuild their ballistic missiles. 0.84

00:20:19.000 It would be the JCPOA if it became a full deal, but likely weaker. 0.93

00:20:24.000 It would be bad, not just because of what Iran would do, but also because of the signal it would send to the rest of the world. 0.91

00:20:30.000 That a ragtag group of terrorists can push the most powerful military and the most militant president off the ball with some mines and some drones and some ugly words. 0.88

00:20:39.000 So, what do you think China would then do about the Taiwan Strait or Taiwan itself?

00:20:43.000 What do you think an expansionist Russia would do about the Baltics?

00:20:47.000 If you would like a world where America loses its global foothold, and of course there are some who actively want this, then make the MOU a full deal.

00:20:55.000 All of which is why I believe that it won't become a full deal.

00:21:02.000 Again, because there are people who are saying that they want this thing to become a full deal, it's necessary to point out that the MOU is bad and the president shouldn't have signed it.

00:21:08.000 And certainly he shouldn't be out there saying the kinds of stuff he is saying to defend it.

00:21:13.000 I know that President Trump, as a pragmatist, thinks correctly most of the time that actions matter and words really don't matter very much.

00:21:19.000 But when it comes to the signals you send to the rest of the world about America's role in the world, words do matter.

00:21:25.000 So, when the president defends backing off of all the rationales for the war in order to cut the temporary deal, that actually can have long term negative impact.

00:21:34.000 It can be reversed if the president reestablishes the credible threat of force after the midterms, but the stuff that the president is saying right now is not good and it is not useful.

00:21:44.000 Again, the president is now, after having said on April 17th that we would get the nuclear dust, this is President Trump saying this, April 17th.

00:21:53.000 The USA will get all nuclear dust.

00:21:56.000 You know what the nuclear dust is?

00:21:58.000 That was.

00:21:59.000 That white powdery substance created by our B 2 bombers, those great B 2 bombers, late one evening, seven months ago.

00:22:09.000 No money will exchange hands in any way, shape, or form. 0.99

00:22:13.000 Iran will be. 1.00

00:22:15.000 And you know how we're going to get the dust, right? 1.00

00:22:17.000 Iran. 1.00

00:22:18.000 We were going to take it anyway. 1.00

00:22:20.000 But taking it that way is slightly more dangerous.

00:22:25.000 But we were going to get it anyway.

00:22:28.000 Okay.

00:22:28.000 He was saying that April 17th.

00:22:30.000 Fast forward a couple of months, and he is now defending leaving the nuclear dust there.

00:22:35.000 And it's actually not valuable.

00:22:37.000 Not a lot of value, but we'd like to get it psychologically, but nobody's touching it.

00:22:41.000 We also have cameras.

00:22:42.000 That's what Space Force is.

00:22:43.000 We have the best, we have the greatest military in the world, by the way.

00:22:47.000 But I'm proud of Space Force because I started it.

00:22:49.000 We have Space Force cameras on every single door.

00:22:54.000 Well, there are no doors.

00:22:55.000 They've been pretty washed out.

00:22:56.000 But every area of that, if somebody walks in and he's got a badge with his name on it, like Mohammed something, which is about a 50 50 guess, Mohammed something, they can tell the name.

00:23:11.000 So, again, first we're getting the nuclear dust, then we're not getting the nuclear dust.

00:23:14.000 The MOU itself says that there'd be on site dilution of the material under the supervision of the IAEA.

00:23:22.000 So, again, this is why if the MOU went into effect, it would be a giant fail.

00:23:25.000 Diluting nuclear material in Iran under the IAEA doesn't mean a thing.

00:23:30.000 You can water the uranium, and then they can revivify that same uranium five seconds later when the inspectors leave.

00:23:38.000 Or how about ballistic missiles?

00:23:39.000 So, again, March 2026.

00:23:42.000 The Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, said that one of the goals was to destroy Iran's ballistic missile capacity.

00:23:49.000 The purpose of this is to destroy that missile capability.

00:23:53.000 Why does Iran want that ballistic missile capability? 0.93

00:23:55.000 What they are trying to do and have been trying to do for a very long time is build a conventional weapons capability as a shield where they can hide behind. 0.94

00:24:04.000 Meaning, there would come a point where they have so many conventional missiles, so many drones, and it can inflict so much damage that no one can do anything about their nuclear program. 0.79

00:24:14.000 That is what they were trying to do.

00:24:15.000 Is put themselves in a place of immunity where the damage they could inflict on the region would be so high that no one can do anything about their nuclear program or their nuclear ambitions.

00:24:26.000 Okay, so again, that was back in March.

00:24:28.000 Fast forward to yesterday, and the president was actively saying that Iran should have some ballistic missiles because Saudi Arabia has ballistic missiles, which, again, that's really, really quite silly.

00:24:42.000 I would like for our enemies not to have things to hurt our allies.

00:24:46.000 That seems like baseline.

00:24:50.000 So we'll be working on a parallel effort with the Gulf nations to address non nuclear issues such as the conventional ballistic missiles, which we'll be talking about, and support.

00:25:02.000 I mean, they have to have some because other people have some.

00:25:05.000 You've got to have some.

00:25:06.000 Somebody said, you shouldn't give them one.

00:25:08.000 I mean, I have guys.

00:25:09.000 I like some of these guys.

00:25:12.000 But I don't think they're smart.

00:25:16.000 Sir, you shouldn't let them have any missiles.

00:25:18.000 I said, well, what am I going to do?

00:25:20.000 Am I going to let Saudi Arabia have missiles, but they can't have them?

00:25:24.000 Yes, sir.

00:25:26.000 Yes.

00:25:26.000 It doesn't work that way, you know?

00:25:29.000 It doesn't work that way.

00:25:30.000 Missiles aren't the problem.

00:25:32.000 They hurt a little location, but they don't blow up the planet.

00:25:38.000 No, missiles absolutely are a problem. 0.87

00:25:41.000 In fact, it was the ballistic missile umbrella set up by Iran in the first place that was the rationale for the war.

00:25:45.000 And then, of course, the president doubled down on that later.

00:25:47.000 Again, it is the president selling the deal right now that is the biggest problem because I don't think that there will ever be a full deal.

00:25:54.000 Same thing with regard to terrorism.

00:25:56.000 So.

00:25:57.000 Back in May, again, this is just a few weeks ago, the Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who again looked quite unhappy at this presser yesterday, as well he should, he said that the problem is not between Israel and Lebanon when it comes to Lebanon, it's Hezbollah, the terrorist group.

00:26:12.000 The problem with Israel and Lebanon is not Israel or Lebanon, it's Hezbollah.

00:26:16.000 Hezbollah operates from inside of Lebanese territory.

00:26:19.000 They terrorize and attack Israelis, but they also are inflicting tremendous damage on the Lebanese people. 0.57

00:26:26.000 Okay, but then yesterday, the president said, That, yeah, we sent a copy of the memo of understanding to Israel, which tries to bind Israel, according to Iran. 0.52

00:26:35.000 And then he said he felt a little bad for Lebanon.

00:26:37.000 Well, I mean, Lebanon is not the party under attack.

00:26:40.000 Hezbollah is the party that is being attacked because they have spent the last several years firing missiles and rockets into northern Israel and then drones at Israeli troops trying to defend Israel. 0.89

00:26:52.000 And we did send a copy to Israel, by the way. 0.99

00:26:55.000 They've been a good partner. 0.93

00:26:57.000 Again, I think they could do better with respect to Hezbollah.

00:27:03.000 I'm not saying they shouldn't protect themselves.

00:27:06.000 I'm saying.

00:27:07.000 When two drones are shot into the desert and dropped harmlessly, you don't have to knock down buildings in Beirut.

00:27:16.000 They could behave better.

00:27:17.000 And frankly, they could do a better job.

00:27:21.000 I love them as a partner.

00:27:22.000 They were terrific. 1.00

00:27:24.000 But they could do a much better job with Hezbollah. 1.00

00:27:27.000 On that, I don't think they're doing well. 0.79

00:27:30.000 And I feel very bad for Lebanon.

00:27:35.000 He's being told that, I assume, by his ambassador, Tom Barrick.

00:27:38.000 Over in Turkey, who is enthralled to Erdogan, which is why the president has been suggesting that Syria should reinvade Lebanon, which did not go well between 1970 and 2005.

00:27:46.000 By the way, Iran is openly promising at this point to help Hezbollah the minute its assets are unfrozen.

00:27:52.000 According to the New York Post, Tehran reportedly promised the inflow of cash to Hezbollah as soon as possible, paving the way for the group to rebuild its military wing and political arm in war torn Lebanon.

00:28:02.000 Hezbollah's communications office confirmed Iran's public support for the terror group, which it has propped up for decades, including a $1 billion transfer just last year.

00:28:10.000 All right, we'll get to more in a moment.

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00:29:20.000 And then when it comes to the Strait, again, the reality is that the MOU, if carried into full force and effect, if it became the deal, the MOU would leave Iran in control of the Strait.

00:29:31.000 Quote The Islamic Republic of Iran will hold a dialogue with the Sultanate of Oman with a view to determining the future governance arrangement and maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz, in consultation with the other states bordering the Persian Gulf, and in accordance with the applicable international law and the sovereign rights of the coastal states in the Strait of Hormuz.

00:29:47.000 So, Iran and Oman will toll the Strait.

00:29:51.000 Now, the president again suggested that the strait would never be opened if we kept bombing for another three months.

00:29:55.000 Well, I mean, we could have done Project Freedom, which is a thing the president himself tried to do a couple of months ago that lasted for less than 12 hours.

00:30:05.000 Let's say we want another month, another two, three months, maybe weeks.

00:30:10.000 Could be another three months.

00:30:13.000 Could be whatever.

00:30:14.000 What do you have left?

00:30:15.000 That may be nothing, but you don't have the strait will never be open.

00:30:22.000 And the strait is not fully open. 1.00

00:30:25.000 The Strait is under the thumb of the Iranians. 1.00

00:30:27.000 And they may temporarily hold off on closing off the Strait. 0.99

00:30:32.000 They may temporarily hold off on tolls so they can keep tapping the president along, but that's what's happening.

00:30:36.000 We are bribing them to keep the strait open, and that will continue, presumably.

00:30:40.000 And then the MOU, of course, talks openly about funding mechanisms for Iran.

00:30:46.000 It specifically says many things.

00:30:47.000 It says the United States of America undertakes to allow use of funds and assets of the Islamic Republic of Iran that have been frozen or restricted upon implementation of the MOU, not upon a final deal.

00:30:59.000 Not upon a final deal.

00:31:01.000 Upon the implementation of the MOU, we are supposed to start unfreezing their funds and assets.

00:31:06.000 And the president yesterday full on defended this.

00:31:09.000 He said, we have to give them back, quote unquote, their money.

00:31:11.000 What does he mean?

00:31:12.000 Frozen funds are frozen because they are a terrorist organization. 0.90

00:31:20.000 What is the difference between giving Iran U.S. dollars and unfreezing U.S. dollars for it? 0.90

00:31:27.000 Well, the unfreezing is an easy one to answer. 0.77

00:31:30.000 We have taken a lot of their money, and we have their money.

00:31:36.000 Taking their money.

00:31:37.000 It's not our money.

00:31:38.000 It's their money.

00:31:39.000 And we froze it.

00:31:41.000 At a certain point in time, I guess we're going to have to give it back.

00:31:46.000 Okay.

00:31:47.000 No, or we don't.

00:31:48.000 Or we actually don't have to do any of that.

00:31:52.000 Now, again, the reason that I'm railing against an MOU that I think will never turn into a full deal is because the defense of the MOU by the president is wrong and he shouldn't be doing it.

00:32:02.000 Second, it's a bad deal.

00:32:03.000 It shouldn't have been negotiated by the VP and the president should never have accepted it.

00:32:07.000 And three, the optics of the situation are bad.

00:32:10.000 And I.

00:32:11.000 And I think that it is very important that people who are telling the president that if this MOU were to go into full force and effect, it would be good, are misinforming him.

00:32:19.000 And if he believes them, he is making a large scale mistake.

00:32:25.000 This is all very clear to Republicans five seconds ago.

00:32:28.000 This is all very clear, including the president.

00:32:30.000 If you flash back to September of 2015, here is Senator Marco Rubio talking about what would happen if Barack Obama's JCPOA became a law.

00:32:41.000 I do want to be recorded for history's purposes before I know what is going to happen in regards to this if it goes through. 0.76

00:32:48.000 Iran will immediately use the money that it's receiving in sanctions relief to begin to build up its conventional capabilities. 0.88

00:32:54.000 It will establish the most dominant military power in the region outside of the United States, and it will raise the price of us operating in the region. 0.62

00:33:01.000 They're going to build anti-access capabilities, rockets capable of destroying our aircraft carriers and ships, continue to build these swift boats that are able to come on us, these fast boats that are able to swarm.

00:33:12.000 Our naval assets.

00:33:13.000 And they'll make it harder and harder for U.S. troops to be in the region.

00:33:17.000 They'll also work with other terrorist groups in the region to target American servicemen and women.

00:33:21.000 And they may or may not deny that they're involved, but they will target us and raise the price of our presence in the Middle East until they hope to completely pull us out of that region.

00:33:32.000 So he was right then, and remains right now.

00:33:35.000 The president should listen to the Secretary of State.

00:33:38.000 And again, I trust that all of this is basically.

00:33:43.000 Just a delay ploy until we get past the election.

00:33:47.000 But it is important that it not become permanent.

00:33:49.000 Because again, at the very beginning of the week, I spelled out that there was sort of a good case scenario for the MOU, a bad case scenario, and a mediocre case. 0.52

00:33:56.000 The good case scenario would be that it would forward the original goals of the war.

00:33:59.000 It does not do that.

00:34:01.000 The bad case scenario is that it would actually reverse the goals of the war.

00:34:05.000 And the MOU text appears to do many of those things.

00:34:08.000 The mediocre case is that it opens the straight and doesn't do much else.

00:34:11.000 I think that will be the practical effect.

00:34:13.000 That's still not great, it is mediocre. 0.92

00:34:16.000 The thing that will have to be reestablished is the credible threat of use of force by the United States when Iran continues to violate all the basic principles the United States went to war to stop in the first place. 0.94

00:34:27.000 I assume that will be done after the election. 0.89

00:34:29.000 The biggest thing is that that MOU cannot serve as the framework for a full deal along those lines.

00:34:35.000 That is the biggest thing, because that's what would turn the current situation from mediocre, maybe a delay tactic, maybe a pragmatic move to lower oil prices into a permanent L. What an amazing video you just watched.

00:34:47.000 Wasn't that amazing?

00:34:48.000 Well, you know, if you think so, head on over to dailywire.comslash subscribe to watch the full show ad free, or check out this crazy story here.

The Ben Shapiro Show - June 18, 2026

What Comes Next In Iran

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