The Ben Shapiro Show - What The HELL Is Going On With The Economy?!

00:00:00.000 Today, we'll get into all the vicissitudes of the American economy.

00:00:03.000 Are things going up?

00:00:04.000 Are things going down?

00:00:04.000 What the hell is going on?

00:00:06.000 Plus, we'll get to a new poll showing where Americans agree and disagree and a peace proposal on the table from the Trump administration with Russia and Ukraine first.

00:00:14.000 Our Black Friday deal is here right now.

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00:00:26.000 Well, the fate of the Trump administration and perhaps Republicans in Congress as well is tied to American sentiment about the economy.

00:00:33.000 And right now, nobody knows what the hell is going on or which way is up.

00:00:38.000 Yesterday, according to the Wall Street Journal, stocks surrendered gains and closed sharply lower after a whirlwind day of trading that began after NVIDIA posted strong results.

00:00:46.000 The NASDAQ Composite led indices lower after being up on the day more than 2%, and then it ended up closing 2.2% lower.

00:00:52.000 NVIDIA itself actually finished the day down 3.2%.

00:00:56.000 So they reported an actual profit of something like $62 billion, and they ended up down on the day.

00:01:03.000 Why?

00:01:04.000 Because people are expecting that there is in fact an AI bubble.

00:01:07.000 And that expectation is not unreal.

00:01:09.000 Again, whenever there's a transformative technology, people seem to think that just because there is a bubble, that means that the underlying technology is not transformative.

00:01:18.000 If you look back at the history of investment, there is always a speculative bubble around brand new technologies.

00:01:24.000 And then failing companies tend to get cleaned out.

00:01:26.000 And you remember the successful companies.

00:01:28.000 So you remember Henry Ford because Ford ended up being a wildly successful company.

00:01:32.000 But there were dozens of other automobile companies that were startups at the time that ended up crapping out.

00:01:37.000 In fact, Ford had several of them before he actually started the Ford Motor Company.

00:01:41.000 The same thing was true of the internet.

00:01:42.000 When the internet bubble burst in 2000, everybody remembers Pets.com as sort of the thing that represented the era.

00:01:49.000 But what we should remember is that actually the internet has completely transformed everybody's life.

00:01:54.000 We all work on the internet.

00:01:55.000 We all do commerce on the internet.

00:01:56.000 We all interact on the internet.

00:01:59.000 The stock market bubble of 2000 did not mean the internet wasn't important.

00:02:02.000 There were idiots like Paul Krugman who tried to suggest that it wasn't important.

00:02:05.000 It was very important, but that is not mutually exclusive to a bubble.

00:02:09.000 And that's also true with regard to AI.

00:02:11.000 So people are looking at the current AI boom and they're thinking that at some point here, it has to crap out.

00:02:16.000 Some of these companies are just not going to be able to develop the kind of margins or gross income that justifies the investment they are currently making.

00:02:25.000 Open AI being the most obvious example of a company that is not publicly traded, but has so many contracts with publicly traded companies ranging from Oracle to NVIDIA that if it craps out, then that could take down a bunch of companies with it or at least severely damage their market capitalization.

00:02:42.000 According to the New York Times, it would not be a stretch to describe this period of hyperactive growth in the tech industry as a historic moment.

00:02:48.000 NVIDIA said on Wednesday its quarterly profit had jumped to nearly $32 billion, up 65% from a year earlier and 245% from the year before that.

00:02:58.000 Just three weeks ago, NVIDIA became the first publicly traded company to be worth $5 trillion, meaning NVIDIA is now worth more according to the stock market than the entire economy of Germany.

00:03:08.000 But some industry insiders say there is something ominous lurking behind all the bubbly news.

00:03:12.000 They are looking at the eye-popping growth and the same stunning wealth creation as Jensen Huang, and they see a house of cards.

00:03:18.000 Even NVIDIA's growth can be explained away because, again, demand for the company's chips doesn't mean that people want to use AI.

00:03:24.000 It means that companies are building giant AI systems in the hope that somebody will pay to use them eventually.

00:03:30.000 And this is going to be the question.

00:03:32.000 At some point, the productivity generation from AI is going to have to start matching up to the investments that are being made.

00:03:40.000 Evan Conrad, a chief executive of San Francisco Compute, a startup specializing in AI, says Stargate alone, if it does actually reach $500 billion, would be the largest infrastructure project in the world several times over.

00:03:51.000 Stargate is, of course, a $500 billion data center project in the United States, enough to fund the Manhattan Project 15 times over.

00:04:01.000 It could pay for the entire Apollo Moon program twice.

00:04:05.000 So the amount of investment at some point is going to have to be channeled into actual gains.

00:04:11.000 Goldman Sachs estimates NVIDIA, for example, will make 15% of all of its sales next year from what critics call circular deals.

00:04:19.000 And so people are betting on whether there's going to be an AI boom that justifies all this or an AI bus.

00:04:24.000 And we don't know which way it's going, which is why people are freaking out.

00:04:27.000 They're also freaking out because if AI does succeed, there will be some temporary job dislocation.

00:04:32.000 There are a lot of jobs that will become obsolete.

00:04:35.000 If you want to hear me discuss this with Matt Walsh, Andrew Clave and Michael Molls, go listen to our episode of Friendly Fire.

00:04:39.000 It came out a couple of days ago.

00:04:40.000 We discussed this at some length.

00:04:43.000 The history of job creation is that the economy becomes more productive.

00:04:48.000 You get nicer things for cheaper prices.

00:04:50.000 You work fewer hours.

00:04:52.000 Your grandparents are working many more hours than you work.

00:04:55.000 But it also means that there is, with technological change, significant job dislocation, people losing the kind of jobs they've historically held.

00:05:02.000 And then they have to find new jobs, retrain.

00:05:06.000 One of the points that I made to Matt Walsh, who's very critical of AI, is that if you named the jobs that many people hold in today's economy to people living in 1997, when the internet was first really getting started, if people in 1997 say, hey, this is going to destroy a huge number of jobs, for example, if you're able to buy everything from Amazon, a bunch of small mom and pop shops might go out of business, which is true.

00:05:29.000 So what's going to happen to those jobs?

00:05:31.000 Well, you know, they and their kids are going to end up doing online marketing, social media management.

00:05:38.000 They are going to end up having small micro businesses that use shipping via Amazon, right?

00:05:44.000 All these things would have been unthinkable in 1997.

00:05:46.000 Amazon was a used bookstore company.

00:05:49.000 I mean, that's what it was.

00:05:49.000 It sold used books to start.

00:05:52.000 And yet we've generated millions and millions of jobs off of areas that we didn't even know exist.

00:05:57.000 And this is just the way the economy tends to work.

00:05:58.000 That doesn't mean that the angst and the heartburn about job dislocation are somehow false.

00:06:03.000 And so two things can be true at once.

00:06:05.000 We can be in a transformative, amazing time for the economy.

00:06:09.000 And the uncertainty can be real.

00:06:10.000 And the concern can be real.

00:06:12.000 And it can't all be alleviated by the government.

00:06:16.000 And so right now you have a lot of uncertainty and dyspepsia.

00:06:20.000 Now, it is also true.

00:06:21.000 It is also true that some of what is being sold in the news is just not really true.

00:06:26.000 So for example, there's been a lot of talk about housing unaffordability.

00:06:31.000 And it is true that housing is way less affordable than it was in, say, 2020 in just pure dollar terms.

00:06:37.000 Well, because we inflated the currency massively between 2020 and 2024.

00:06:37.000 Why?

00:06:42.000 The inflationary policy that was pursued in bipartisan fashion, by the way, in 2020 during COVID, when we had a massive artificial shutdown and the government paid everybody to stay home, was then followed on in 2021 and 2022 by even more massively inflationary policy under President Biden.

00:07:01.000 Now, what that led to is an increase in the price of pretty much everything, but particularly housing, because when people didn't know what to do with their money, they figured, I'm going to plow that into the housing market.

00:07:11.000 Because historically, the housing market has been an excellent repository of wealth.

00:07:16.000 The way that you got wealthy is you bought a house, and then if you got richer, maybe sold that house and bought another house that was bigger and kept upgrading your wealth level.

00:07:24.000 That's what my parents did.

00:07:25.000 I think what many Americans' parents did.

00:07:27.000 It's what I've done myself.

00:07:29.000 However, there's some myth-making right now about the price of housing in the United States.

00:07:34.000 So Zarmamdani wins in New York and he shouts about housing unaffordability.

00:07:37.000 And of course, he's right.

00:07:38.000 New York is really, really unaffordable.

00:07:40.000 And we talked yesterday on the program about many of the reasons that is.

00:07:43.000 Regulations, rent freezes, all of that makes it really unpalatable to build new units in New York.

00:07:48.000 And many of the units that already exist, it costs more to rent them out to somebody than it would be to keep them empty.

00:07:54.000 Like the maintenance costs on it, the taxes on it actually cost more to rent than to just keep it empty.

00:08:00.000 So you have 50,000 so-called ghost apartments in New York City.

00:08:03.000 Okay, but this is also obscuring a simple truth.

00:08:07.000 In many parts of the country, the prices in housing have been on the decline, not the incline.

00:08:12.000 Already coming up, we'll get to some things people think about the economy that just are not quite true.

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00:10:24.000 So I asked our sponsors and friends over at Comet, which is a project of perplexity, have housing prices gone down in populous areas leaving aside New York, Chicago, LA, and Seattle over the last year.

00:10:37.000 And according to Comet, housing prices have declined over the last year in several populous metropolitan areas outside of New York, Chicago, L.A., and Seattle, with the largest decreases seen mostly in Florida, Texas, and some southern and western cities.

00:10:48.000 Now, what you'll notice about that is those are all red areas, where, by the way, population is increasing.

00:10:53.000 So when you have areas like LA or Chicago or Seattle or New York where population is leaving and the housing prices are increasing, you're reducing demand and yet somehow you are still having the prices go up.

00:11:08.000 That is regulation.

00:11:09.000 That is regulatory overreach.

00:11:10.000 That is the rationale.

00:11:12.000 According to Perplexity, according to our sponsors over a comet, Austin saw median listing prices fall by nearly 15% over the last three years and about 6% year over year.

00:11:23.000 Miami's prices have dropped 19% over the last three years and roughly 4% to 4.6% in the past 12 months.

00:11:29.000 Why did this happen, by the way?

00:11:30.000 Because when there was a gigantic rush during COVID to Florida and to Texas, then one of the things that happened is the housing prices went up, right?

00:11:37.000 Same supply, higher demand, higher prices.

00:11:40.000 Okay, but then what happened?

00:11:41.000 Every developer in Florida decided to build.

00:11:44.000 The building went nuts in Florida.

00:11:46.000 The building went nuts in Dallas and Austin and Houston.

00:11:49.000 And so now there's more inventory.

00:11:52.000 And then the demand slacked a little bit.

00:11:53.000 Now the prices are down.

00:11:55.000 Tampa has experienced a 6.2% year-over-year decline.

00:11:58.000 Dallas and Houston saw home values decrease by 3.9% and 1.9%, respectively.

00:12:03.000 Atlanta recorded a roughly 3.1% decrease in home values.

00:12:08.000 There are a bunch of areas actually that have experienced year-over-year declines between 0.9% and 4.3%.

00:12:16.000 Many of the areas in the Rust Belt and the Midwest saw home prices increase, but some of that is because a lot of those home prices were already fairly cheap.

00:12:25.000 If you were looking at a house in Cincinnati, it's not going to cost you what a house in, say, New York would cost.

00:12:30.000 Nationally, U.S. home values have actually remained mostly flat over the last year.

00:12:35.000 So it's important to look at the contrasting areas.

00:12:38.000 The United States is not homogenous.

00:12:40.000 Saying that it's unaffordable to live in New York City does not mean it is just as unaffordable to live in Austin.

00:12:45.000 Now, that doesn't mean there aren't affordability problems in Austin.

00:12:47.000 Groceries, particularly, have been a major issue.

00:12:50.000 And again, that's because the value of your dollar just is not worth what it once was because there are more dollars chasing the same number of goods.

00:12:58.000 As Milton Freeman famously said over and over and over, inflation is anywhere and everywhere, a monetary phenomenon.

00:13:04.000 What he meant is you really get inflation as a factor of how much money the government is pumping into the economy.

00:13:11.000 With that said, having to explain this, like explaining this in real ways is the job of the Trump administration.

00:13:19.000 And one of the things that they are falling into is this routine where they either say that people's feelings are fake, which, you know, I can say because, again, that's my show.

00:13:27.000 And I can say that facts don't care about your feelings, but politicians, feelings very often don't care about their facts.

00:13:32.000 Howard Luttnick, the commerce secretary, he's been saying that the economic dyspepsia is fake news.

00:13:37.000 Well, you know, it may be true that much of what is being distributed about the economy is fake news.

00:13:41.000 The dyspepsia is not fake news by the polling data.

00:13:45.000 It's just fake news.

00:13:46.000 You've got so many factories being built.

00:13:50.000 You know, I know people talk about when the factories come online, but the construction jobs alone, you can't invest $3 trillion a year without driving our GDP off the charts.

00:14:04.000 You're going to see fours, you're going to see fives, and you're going to see 6% GDP growth under this president because the factory's coming home.

00:14:12.000 The tariffs are bringing them home.

00:14:15.000 Hey, so again, you know, it is not true that the tariffs are bringing manufacturing home.

00:14:20.000 That is not true by the statistics.

00:14:21.000 However, some of the angst about the economy is, in fact, overstated.

00:14:25.000 The idea that you absolutely cannot get a job anywhere.

00:14:27.000 We have a 4.4% unemployment rate.

00:14:29.000 By historic rates, that is actually close to full employment.

00:14:33.000 And in many of the high-tech industries, we actually still have more job openings than we have job applicants in some of these areas.

00:14:40.000 Meanwhile, the vice president is begging Americans for patience, which, you know, the problem with begging people for patience is that they are not patient.

00:14:49.000 And even though we've made incredible progress, we understand that there's a lot more work to do.

00:14:55.000 And the thing that I'd ask for the American people is a little bit of patience.

00:14:58.000 This economy was not harmed in 10 months.

00:15:02.000 It took a deliberate four-year administration that was making life harder for everyday Americans, that was importing foreign workers instead of giving jobs to American workers, that was over-regulating, over-taxing, overspending.

00:15:16.000 They were doing everything wrong.

00:15:18.000 And as much progress as we've made, it's going to take a little bit of time for every American to feel that economic boom.

00:15:25.000 Okay, so we will see if that is true or if that is not true.

00:15:28.000 Okay, but one of the things you actually do have to explain to the American people comes with some strings, right?

00:15:34.000 If you explain, as I just did, that the economy is heterogeneous, that living in Florida and Texas is not the same thing as living in New York, and that blanket solutions are not going to work the same way.

00:15:44.000 That is a politically difficult thing to do, but it is a politically necessary thing to do because otherwise people are going to look at the solutions that you are proposing.

00:15:52.000 And when they don't work the way they think they should, when the housing affordability crisis in New York does not alleviate, they blame you for that.

00:15:59.000 You see some of this in the marketing from the administration.

00:16:02.000 So the Department of Homeland Security, they put out a tweet yesterday in which they basically suggested that every single problem in the United States can be attributed to illegal immigration.

00:16:12.000 Now, there are a lot of problems in the United States that can be attributed to illegal immigration, but to sort of use the hammer available to treat every single thing as a nail is a mistake and no one's going to buy it.

00:16:24.000 They put out a tweet yesterday that said rent is too high.

00:16:26.000 There are tens of millions of criminal illegals in our country.

00:16:29.000 Okay, so first of all, there is some truth that there is upward housing pressure based on the population.

00:16:35.000 That is true.

00:16:35.000 It is also true that illegal immigrants are likely to be living many, many people to some of the cheapest housing in America.

00:16:41.000 They're not the ones who are taking up suburban houses for the most part.

00:16:44.000 Groceries cost too much.

00:16:46.000 There are tens of millions of criminal illegals in our country.

00:16:48.000 Again, higher demand is true, but there aren't enough jobs.

00:16:52.000 There are tens of millions of criminal illegals in our country.

00:16:54.000 Women don't feel safe walking down the street. 1.00

00:16:56.000 There are tens of millions of criminal illegals in our country.

00:16:58.000 Okay, again, I don't, I'm not even arguing that criminal illegal immigration does not actually drive up prices or create traffic or put pressures on the healthcare system.

00:17:09.000 All of that is true.

00:17:10.000 But the conclusion here, which is many problems, a simple answer, no, actually.

00:17:18.000 Many problems may have one factor that is a simple answer, but that is not the only factor.

00:17:23.000 And pretending that it is, is likely to result in, again, fruitless promises.

00:17:29.000 Because first of all, this administration will not, they're not going to deport 20 million illegal immigrants.

00:17:34.000 It's not going to happen.

00:17:35.000 The administration is deporting some people, for sure.

00:17:39.000 We have seen one of the tremendous achievements of the administration is that the job growth that has occurred under the Trump administration is going to American-born workers.

00:17:47.000 It is not going to foreign-born workers, illegal immigrants, and the rest. 0.88

00:17:51.000 And that's a good thing.

00:17:53.000 But promising a panacea is a mistake because then people expect more than they are likely to receive.

00:17:58.000 Now, with that said, Democrats do the exact same thing.

00:18:00.000 Hakeem Jeffries, the House minority leader, yesterday, he suggested, so if JD Vance is suggesting that home ownership is unaffordable due to illegal immigration, which again, maybe on the margin is true, but that's really not why housing is unaffordable as a general rule.

00:18:15.000 Hakeem Jeffries is saying that home ownership is unaffordable because of climate change, which is just insane.

00:18:20.000 Home ownership has become unaffordable in far too many places, ripping away the possibility of home ownership for millions of Americans.

00:18:34.000 And we know that home ownership has always been central to the great American dream.

00:18:41.000 And so it's incredibly important that we deal with the climate crisis because there is only one earth.

00:18:50.000 There is no planet B.

00:18:53.000 We have no other option.

00:18:56.000 Okay, well, I mean, really?

00:18:58.000 So your solution to affordability is to yell at the sun?

00:19:01.000 Good luck with that.

00:19:02.000 Folks, there's stuff that's solvable and there's stuff that is not solvable.

00:19:05.000 And there are solutions being provided that are real and then there are ones that are not particularly real.

00:19:10.000 When it comes to the economy, the best thing the government can do is get the hell out of the way as both a mid-range and a long-range strategy.

00:19:18.000 That is the best thing the government can do.

00:19:19.000 You can always have a short-range strategy, a sugar high where the government pumps money into an economy or the government subsidizes an industry or the government regulates out of existence some sort of practice.

00:19:31.000 You can try all those things.

00:19:32.000 They are short-term, temporary solutions that actually exacerbate the mid-term to long-term problems.

00:19:37.000 And until somebody in politics says the truth about the way the free markets work, things are likely in the midterm and the long range to actually get worse, not better.

00:19:44.000 This is the thing.

00:19:45.000 Many of the solutions that Trump is actually pursuing are free market solutions.

00:19:49.000 And those are the ones you should be talking about because they are, in fact, working.

00:19:52.000 They are, in fact, doing the thing they are supposed to be doing.

00:19:54.000 Alrighty, coming up, we'll be joined by Stephen Moore, economic advisor to the president of the United States.

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00:21:54.000 Joining me on the line to discuss is Stephen Moore, former economic advisor to President Trump and co-founder of Unleash Prosperity, an organization dedicated to educating policymakers and the public about government policies that have been proven to maximize economic growth.

00:22:07.000 Of course, he's the host also of the More Money Show.

00:22:09.000 Stephen, thanks so much for taking the time.

00:22:10.000 Really appreciate it.

00:22:11.000 Hi, Ben.

00:22:12.000 Thanks so much for having me.

00:22:13.000 So let's talk about the state of the economy.

00:22:15.000 Honestly, I feel like everybody is confused and bamboozled about what is happening in the economy right now.

00:22:20.000 There are a lot of different cross currents that are sort of competing for supremacy.

00:22:24.000 Why don't we start with where we are just generally in the economy?

00:22:27.000 Do we have a good economy?

00:22:28.000 Do we have a bad economy?

00:22:29.000 Do we have an unsure economy?

00:22:31.000 Where are things right now?

00:22:32.000 Well, you just used the word bamboozled, and I like that word a lot to describe what's going on in terms of the media perception of the economy and frankly, a lot of Americans.

00:22:42.000 So let me start with the very big picture, if I may.

00:22:45.000 And one of the reasons I love doing your show in particular, Ben, is because you're reaching an age group that I don't speak to very often.

00:22:54.000 That is young people.

00:22:55.000 I know that because my two sons are big, big fanciers.

00:22:59.000 So first of all, my advice to young people is stop complaining.

00:23:02.000 Stop whining.

00:23:03.000 What are you whining about?

00:23:04.000 This is the greatest time ever in the history of the world to be alive.

00:23:08.000 And this is the greatest nation in the history of the world to be in.

00:23:12.000 And so the opportunities are abundant today.

00:23:15.000 The average young person is going to have a living standard that is double the living standard of my parents.

00:23:20.000 So stop complaining.

00:23:22.000 The jobs are out there.

00:23:23.000 Look, I know there's some, you know, a little bit of contraction in the job market right now.

00:23:27.000 But look, when I graduated from college, we had a 10% unemployment rate.

00:23:31.000 We had 15% inflation.

00:23:33.000 You know, it was just, it was a terrible situation.

00:23:36.000 I'm bullish on the U.S. economy.

00:23:38.000 I think anybody who gets off their buff and gets off their computer games and watching TV and goes out and get a job, they're out there.

00:23:48.000 And one other quick, quick piece of advice to people under the age of especially 25, the best thing you can do is get a job, even if you're 19, 20 years old, 17 years old.

00:23:59.000 The younger you get your first job, Ben, the more successful you will be in your life.

00:24:06.000 So let's talk about some of the issues that people are themselves apparently feeling and talking about.

00:24:11.000 The big one, of course, is the continuation of inflation.

00:24:14.000 Obviously, the rates of inflation have come down radically under President Trump.

00:24:17.000 And the thing that I keep talking about on the show is that it is true that President Trump has sort of stabilized the inflation rate.

00:24:24.000 But the thing that people are comparing the prices to are not the prices last year.

00:24:27.000 What they're actually comparing the prices to in their heads are prices from 2020.

00:24:30.000 And those prices are just not coming back because the only way to get those prices to come back would presumably be an actual economic downturn involving significant unemployment because we blew too much money in the economy.

00:24:41.000 Unless you're going to suck amazing amounts of money out of the economy, those prices are basically going to stay where they are.

00:24:46.000 And that is, in fact, Joe Biden's fault and not President Trump's fault.

00:24:49.000 Well, okay, good points.

00:24:51.000 So first of all, let's address the first point that you make, which is that we just did some numbers that unleashed prosperity starting from the beginning of the pandemic, COVID, to today, 87.5%, almost 90%, 87.5% of the inflation that you're feeling when you go to the grocery store, when you pay your rent, your utility bill, your medical bill, 87.5% of that happened under Biden, not Trump.

00:25:20.000 And Trump is right to say, look, I inherited this inflation invest.

00:25:23.000 I didn't cause it.

00:25:25.000 It's just some numbers.

00:25:26.000 And in Trump's first term, his first four years in office, the inflation rate was 2%.

00:25:32.000 Biden comes in 18 months after entering office, the inflation rate's 9.1%.

00:25:38.000 And over the average of his presidency, it was about 5% to 5.5%.

00:25:41.000 Today, the inflation rate is somewhere between 2.5% and 3%.

00:25:46.000 Now, that's a little too high.

00:25:48.000 We want to get it down to the Fed target, which is 2%, which is the sort of rated growth of the overall U.S. economy.

00:25:54.000 But Trump is right to say, look, I didn't cause this crisis.

00:25:57.000 And especially, by the way, Ben, in the case of healthcare, where if you really want to see a villain here for the high cost of living, look at President Barack Obama, who said that his signature achievement as president was to, you remember this, they passed Obamacare.

00:26:13.000 And people like me said this is going to blow a lid off of spending.

00:26:18.000 It's going to bankrupt the country and bankrupt the healthcare system.

00:26:18.000 It's not going to work.

00:26:22.000 And that's exactly what has happened.

00:26:24.000 Obamacare has led to a doubling, the tripling of healthcare prices in the last 15 years.

00:26:29.000 Thanks a lot, Barack.

00:26:30.000 You did a great job.

00:26:33.000 So, you know, there are some other questions with regard to inflation that I have.

00:26:36.000 And one of them is the president has constantly called for a lowering of the interest rates.

00:26:41.000 And to me, I'm talking with investors.

00:26:43.000 It doesn't seem like there is a lack of liquidity in the economy.

00:26:46.000 Typically, you lower the interest rates when there's a lack of liquidity, when it feels like there's an economic contraction that's happening.

00:26:51.000 You're not going to lower the interest rates when the economy is running hot and when the stock market continues to churn and when the inflation rate is still riding about 50% higher than the Fed's target rate.

00:27:00.000 By the way, I'm a Vienna school guy.

00:27:02.000 So I think that the inflation rate target should actually be zero, not 2%.

00:27:05.000 Putting that aside.

00:27:06.000 I can live with that.

00:27:10.000 The attempt to push the Federal Reserve into lowering those interest rates as though what we really have is a problem to spur liquidity and consumption.

00:27:19.000 Why is the president still pushing that?

00:27:21.000 Wouldn't he be better off at this point, basically just saying, listen, the Fed policy is what the Fed policy is, and let's work on deregulation and freer trade, for example.

00:27:30.000 So, let me put this in a big broad perspective because I'm what you call a supply sider with Art Laffer and Larry Kudlow and Ronald Reagan and Steve Forbes.

00:27:40.000 And the reason they call us supply siders is that we believe that the best solution for almost every problem in the economy is to grow the economy, increase the supply of goods and services, increase production, because it's very simple.

00:27:53.000 And it's amazing how many even PhD economists don't understand this universal truth.

00:27:58.000 Ben, if the economy produces more apples, what happens to the price of apples?

00:28:04.000 Price drops.

00:28:06.000 They go down, right?

00:28:07.000 So if you want less inflation, produce more.

00:28:09.000 And in fact, even you sort of start, you know, were saying, well, you know, maybe we're going to meet a recession to lower prices.

00:28:17.000 That's not true.

00:28:18.000 The way you bring down prices is to produce more and get people working, getting people to produce more.

00:28:25.000 That's point number one.

00:28:26.000 Point number two, I believe that there is way, way, way too much emphasis in Washington on Wall Street on what the Fed is going to do.

00:28:34.000 The Fed does not control the interest rate.

00:28:37.000 Let me say that again.

00:28:38.000 The Fed does not control the interest rate.

00:28:40.000 You said you're an Austrian economist, so you know the interest rate is set by the law of supply and demand for credit.

00:28:46.000 And so all the Fed controls is the overnight interest rate.

00:28:50.000 Do you borrow at the overnight interest rate rate?

00:28:54.000 I don't.

00:28:54.000 You don't.

00:28:55.000 Almost nobody does except for banks.

00:28:57.000 And so my point here is that, and even Trump, and I love Trump.

00:29:01.000 I'm a Trump guy.

00:29:02.000 I was one of his advisors.

00:29:03.000 I think he's been an amazing president, but he's wrong on this.

00:29:05.000 Whether the Fed lowers or raises interest rates is not going to necessarily affect the mortgage rate of the 10-year treasury bill.

00:29:13.000 And I'll give you evidence of that, Ben.

00:29:15.000 Back when Biden was president, the Fed lowered interest rates three times in 2024.

00:29:21.000 And what happened to the mortgage rate?

00:29:24.000 It went up.

00:29:25.000 It went up.

00:29:26.000 So why is that?

00:29:27.000 Because what affects the long-term interest rate is what we call inflationary expectations.

00:29:33.000 That if you believe, let me keep this very simple.

00:29:36.000 Ben, if you believe that the interest rate, I mean, the inflation rate is going to be 5%, are you going to lend me money at 3%?

00:29:43.000 No, that'd be idiotic.

00:29:45.000 Right.

00:29:46.000 Well, sometimes there's a lot of idiotic thinking in Washington.

00:29:49.000 We've got to grow our way out of this.

00:29:50.000 I'm very proud of the fact that because of so many of Trump's great policies on reducing taxes, reducing regulations, producing more energy, we are seeing we're starting to see the inflation rate go down and we've achieved almost 4% economic growth.

00:30:06.000 That's a phenomenal rate of growth over the last six months.

00:30:10.000 Okay.

00:30:10.000 So meanwhile, there are a lot of worries, obviously, about AI and not just about AI itself.

00:30:14.000 I tend to be an optimist when it comes to tech, but about whether we are actually in a stock market bubble, because the vast majority of gains in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, for example, have accrued to the Mag 7.

00:30:25.000 The Mag 7 represent an extraordinary percentage at this point of all stock market growth over the course of the last several years.

00:30:32.000 Obviously, NVIDIA's numbers are eye-watering and eye popping.

00:30:35.000 According to the markets, the company NVIDIA is now worth more than the entire economy of the country of Germany.

00:30:41.000 And so when you look at NVIDIA and then you look at the sort of circular deals that are being made between, say, NVIDIA and private companies like OpenAI, where OpenAI is talking about expending $1.4 trillion in capital over the next 10 years just on data centers and data infrastructure, and they generated a $20 billion return this year, there are a lot of people, including me, who are pretty nervous that we may be in an AI bubble.

00:31:04.000 Not to say that AI isn't important, but two things can be true at once.

00:31:07.000 AI can be really important and transformative.

00:31:09.000 And also, whenever you get a new technology, there tends to be a lot of speculation in that area.

00:31:14.000 And then it tends to consolidate down into the most productive companies.

00:31:17.000 This happened with the internet.

00:31:18.000 Hell, it happened with cars.

00:31:19.000 So would we be surprised if this happened with AI as well?

00:31:23.000 Well, I could probably talk to you for about 45 minutes about AI.

00:31:26.000 And there's a lot in that question, but I'll just make a couple of observations on this.

00:31:30.000 Number one, I mean, I'm so envious of younger people like you. 1.00

00:31:35.000 I'm 65, but especially people in their 20s and 30s, you're going to see the most amazing economic transformation over the next 25 or 30 years.

00:31:44.000 I mean, it's amazing what is coming.

00:31:46.000 Just to give you an example, Ben, I just joined the board of a company called Lightspeed, and we build houses.

00:31:53.000 with robots.

00:31:55.000 Within probably how long, I mean, in 10 years, there won't be truck drivers.

00:32:01.000 All trucks will be automated.

00:32:02.000 You know, already in a lot of parts of the country, Uber and Lyft cars are automated.

00:32:10.000 So you get in the car.

00:32:11.000 And by the way, this dramatically reduces prices because you don't have to have a human driving the car.

00:32:15.000 A machine does.

00:32:17.000 This is very much like the revolution that happened in agriculture 100 to 150 years ago, where it used to be 35 out of every 100 Americans was working in the fields.

00:32:26.000 And now two out of every 100 work in the fields and we produce more food than we can possibly consume.

00:32:32.000 And so this is going to be an exciting period ahead.

00:32:36.000 You asked the question of whether there's a bubble, maybe.

00:32:39.000 You know, I'm a little nervous about it too.

00:32:41.000 But think about this.

00:32:42.000 I mean, you want to go USA.

00:32:45.000 We have seven companies, the magnificent seven.

00:32:49.000 You mentioned a few of them, Amazon, Apple, Google, NVIDIA, Microsoft, Tesla, Meta, that are worth more than all of the companies in Europe combined.

00:33:01.000 So we need to dominate the AI and robotics age the way we've dominated the internet age.

00:33:08.000 How did we do that as a country?

00:33:10.000 What was the key to making America so completely dominant in the internet age?

00:33:16.000 You know what it was?

00:33:17.000 Back in the mid-1990s, when of all people, Bill Clinton, the Democrat, was president in a Republican Congress.

00:33:23.000 We passed a bill that basically said, we are going to make the Internet tax-free, subsidy-free, and regulation-free.

00:33:30.000 And we just created the Wild West.

00:33:32.000 We just said, go out there and build these companies.

00:33:34.000 And we built these amazing, amazing companies.

00:33:37.000 There's going to be some sorting out.

00:33:37.000 You're right.

00:33:38.000 You may recall that in 2000, there was a crash in the technology market.

00:33:43.000 It was a pretty deep crash because prices did get overvalued.

00:33:47.000 But, you know, that's the way markets work.

00:33:50.000 Well, meanwhile, there is dyspepsia.

00:33:52.000 You know, you mentioned young people and the job market.

00:33:54.000 And because the educational system is now, we're in a transitional economy, right?

00:33:58.000 We're in a period where we're moving from agriculture to manufacturing or manufacturing to service.

00:34:04.000 I mean, it is that large of a shift.

00:34:06.000 And so there is real concern, and I understand it on an individual level about the job dislocation that's going to happen, right?

00:34:13.000 There's no question that, for example, automating trucks is going to make things more efficient.

00:34:17.000 It's going to bring down prices for the vast majority of Americans.

00:34:19.000 Where do the truck drivers go is always the question.

00:34:22.000 And so, you know, I think that this is one of the dangers for the Trump administration or for any administration that's in power, because there is no, the creative destruction that Chumper describes when it comes to markets is real.

00:34:33.000 And there is a destruction half to that creative destruction, meaning, you know, in 10 years, all those people will have new jobs.

00:34:38.000 But what happens in the meantime?

00:34:39.000 What would you say about the potential of AI to wipe out huge numbers of jobs?

00:34:43.000 And how long do you think it takes for that to move through the market and then create new jobs that we've never even heard of yet?

00:34:49.000 Well, the whole idea, let's just start with what economics is all about.

00:34:52.000 It's about increasing production of goods and services.

00:34:55.000 And the idea is to create as many resources as possible with the least amount of work, right?

00:35:01.000 And labor. 0.69

00:35:03.000 And that's what's essentially happening with this, just like it happened with the age of the tractor and then the age of the computer and now the age of AI.

00:35:13.000 I'm very concerned about our education system.

00:35:17.000 I don't think we're preparing young people for this revolution.

00:35:20.000 I mean, you've got kids that are graduating with political science degrees and psychology degrees and ethnic study degrees.

00:35:26.000 And guess what?

00:35:27.000 There's not a big demand for that right now.

00:35:30.000 So they're, you know, they're they're spending sometimes $200,000 for a college degree that it really isn't very worthwhile.

00:35:39.000 I believe just one tip for young people, and I said it before, but I'm going to say it again.

00:35:44.000 The younger you start working, Ben, the evidence is crystal clear about this and it's been true for 200 years.

00:35:51.000 The younger you start working and getting that first job, the more successful you will be in your life.

00:35:56.000 And people go, oh, Steve Moore is for, you know, child labor emphasis.

00:35:59.000 Look, my, my wife grew up on a farm. 0.98

00:36:02.000 She is one of the most productive people I've ever met.

00:36:04.000 She's incredible.

00:36:05.000 She started working as soon as she's 11 years old, cleaning out the stables and things like that.

00:36:10.000 So this idea that people, you got 25-year-olds who haven't worked.

00:36:17.000 Well, that is Stephen Moore.

00:36:18.000 You can go check out all of his work over at Unleash Prosperity.

00:36:22.000 Stephen, thanks so much for the time.

00:36:23.000 Really appreciate the insight.

00:36:25.000 Thank you, Ben.

00:36:26.000 All righty, coming up, Zorhan Mamdani headed to the White House.

00:36:29.000 How will that go?

00:36:30.000 We'll get into it first.

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00:37:08.000 Okay, well, some of this is likely to come to a head today when Zorhan Mamdani, the communist mayor of New York, is to arrive at the White House.

00:37:15.000 That is happening around 3 p.m. today.

00:37:18.000 Apparently, they're going to be meeting behind closed doors.

00:37:20.000 So it won't be one of those open sessions like with Vladimir Zelensky earlier in the year, which would have been the most amusing form of all of this.

00:37:26.000 Zorhan Mamdani says he wants to speak plainly to President Trump about affordability.

00:37:31.000 This is according to the New York Post.

00:37:33.000 Mamdani gave a City Hall Park news conference on Thursday.

00:37:37.000 He said, I have many disagreements with the president.

00:37:38.000 I believe we should be relentless and pursue all avenues and all meetings that could make our city affordable for every single New Yorker.

00:37:44.000 Well, I mean, he could start by resigning.

00:37:45.000 That would probably be the best way to start making it more affordable to live in New York.

00:37:50.000 He said, I intend to make it clear to President Trump I will work with him on any agenda that benefits New Yorkers.

00:37:54.000 If an agenda hurts New Yorkers, I will also be the first to say so.

00:37:57.000 The White House is significantly more skeptical of Zorhan Mamdani's visit.

00:38:01.000 Here is Caroline Levitt explaining.

00:38:04.000 It speaks volumes that tomorrow we have a communist coming to the White House because that's who the Democrat Party elected as the mayor of the largest city in the country.

00:38:14.000 I think it's very telling, but I also think it speaks to the fact that President Trump is willing to meet with anyone and talk to anyone and to try to do what's right on behalf of the American people, whether they live in blue states or red states or blue cities.

00:38:28.000 By the way, it is also true that Zorn Mamdani continues his unbroken record of virtue signaling to the worst people in America.

00:38:35.000 So one of the big controversy that has broken out in New York is that just the other night, a bunch of anti-Semites, and I use that word advisedly because of what they were yelling, gathered outside of an Orthodox congregation in Manhattan's Upper East Side chanting from New York to Gaza, globalize the intifada.

00:38:54.000 Again, globalize the intifada.

00:38:55.000 That is a violent call.

00:38:57.000 Intifada is a violent uprising.

00:38:59.000 Calling to globalize the intifada in New York means go kill people in New York.

00:39:02.000 That's what that means.

00:39:04.000 So why were they outside a synagogue yelling?

00:39:06.000 I mean, by the way, they're also chanting resistance, you make us proud.

00:39:09.000 Take another settler out. 0.76

00:39:10.000 They consider every Jew in Israel to be a settler.

00:39:13.000 I don't know how else to describe that other than Jew hatred. 1.00

00:39:16.000 I mean, that's what that is.

00:39:17.000 They were literally outside a synagogue in New York.

00:39:20.000 What were they protesting?

00:39:21.000 There's a group called Mefesh Benefesh in Israel that facilitates for people who want to move to Israel, if you're in England, America, wherever.

00:39:30.000 They help facilitate your move to Israel.

00:39:32.000 So how did Zora Mamdani respond to the anti-Semitism?

00:39:36.000 Well, he blamed everybody.

00:39:38.000 His spokesperson said, quote, the mayor-elect has discouraged the language used at last night's protest and will continue to do so.

00:39:44.000 He believes every New Yorker should be free to enter a house of worship without intimidation and that these sacred spaces should not be used to promote activities in violation of international law.

00:39:53.000 That is an insane statement.

00:39:54.000 Nothing that was happening in the synagogue violates international law.

00:39:58.000 First of all, there are a few problems.

00:39:59.000 One, international law can go screw because it's the most useless pile of crap that ever was conceived by man or anyone else.

00:40:04.000 It's ridiculous.

00:40:05.000 There is no such thing as international law.

00:40:07.000 There are just international interests.

00:40:09.000 The notion that there is a governing body that decides what is right and wrong that includes Russia and China and Iran isn't, it's absurd.

00:40:16.000 It's ridiculous.

00:40:18.000 American domestic law protects First Amendment religious activity.

00:40:23.000 International law typically protects some of the worst people on earth while attacking places like America, which is why the United States is not a party to, for example, the International Criminal Court that Zorhan Mamdani likes to cite.

00:40:35.000 The International Criminal Court used by human rights violating regimes like South Africa as a sword against any place they don't like.

00:40:43.000 Ridiculous.

00:40:44.000 Okay, but beyond that, again, from a purely American perspective, New York is not an international city.

00:40:49.000 It's an American city.

00:40:51.000 If you're an American living in an American city and your mayor is saying that you can't go to your synagogue or church because you might be quote unquote violating international law, I mean, listen, there are international standards that pertain to, for example, the quote-unquote abuse of religious materials that largely are focused on not violating the scruples of radical Muslims. 0.66

00:41:17.000 There are, in fact, bodies that prosecute acts like that under hate speech.

00:41:20.000 Is that something that we're going to do in the United States because Zorhan Mamdani says it violates international law?

00:41:26.000 What a joke he is.

00:41:27.000 Truly a joke.

00:41:28.000 And more than that, a dangerous joke.

00:41:30.000 All right, it's time for some fast facts.

00:41:35.000 Hey, let's begin with some fascinating polling data.

00:41:38.000 This is from Gallup.

00:41:39.000 Americans are actually showing some consensus on issues.

00:41:42.000 I know.

00:41:42.000 It's shocking.

00:41:43.000 Those issues are, for example, democratic values.

00:41:48.000 So asked whether political leaders should compromise with the other party to get some things done, even if they don't like some parts of the compromise, or whether political leaders should stick to their beliefs and avoid compromise, even if nothing gets done.

00:41:58.000 80% of Americans believe that political leaders should compromise with the other party to get things done.

00:42:03.000 Now, of course, when you dig beneath the hood, the question is what's the nature of the compromise?

00:42:06.000 But Americans are not actually, in fact, begging for kind of the wild partisanship that was demonstrated by the Democrats during the latest government shutdown.

00:42:14.000 On political violence, 83% of Americans say it is never okay for people to use violence to achieve a political goal.

00:42:21.000 And by the way, that does include a broad majority of Democrats.

00:42:25.000 This one is kind of fascinating.

00:42:27.000 On the question of whether the U.S. is stronger as a nation because it has people from different races, religions, and cultures, or the U.S. is weaker as a nation because it has people from different races, religions, and cultures. 0.91

00:42:38.000 84% of Americans believe the United States is stronger as a nation because it has people from different races, religions, and cultures, that America is not, in fact, homogenous.

00:42:47.000 Now, we will get into another under the hood question in a minute here from this poll about how fast American culture has been transitioning, which is the real objection that many people have.

00:42:56.000 And that's being misread.

00:42:57.000 That objection, which is a very real and legitimate objection, is being misread into a critique of America as a creedal nation entirely by large parts of the right at this point, where people say things are changing too fast.

00:43:09.000 We don't want this many people coming in.

00:43:10.000 Mass migration is changing the fabric of the country incredibly fast and in the wrong ways. 0.99

00:43:15.000 Those are all legitimate perspectives, and they are all perspectives that I think most Americans probably agree with.

00:43:21.000 However, to read that into, okay, what we need is a homogenous nation, racially, religious, like totally homogenous.

00:43:30.000 That, of course, is not traditionally American, and it is a massive electoral loser.

00:43:36.000 On facts versus opinions, 88% of Americans say there are facts and then there are opinions.

00:43:41.000 Only 10% of Americans say facts are just opinions and points of view.

00:43:46.000 Okay, so again, some of the breakdown here is really, really interesting.

00:43:49.000 So that under the hood question that I think is the big one that is dividing the country basically right down the middle is the nature of change in America.

00:44:00.000 The right is not anti people of all races or people of a wide variety of religions, while acknowledging, of course, the biblical heritage of the United States.

00:44:11.000 The question is the pace of change.

00:44:12.000 So according to this Gallup poll, for this statement, please indicate which comes closer to your view, even if neither is exactly right.

00:44:20.000 Over the past 25 years, cultural changes in U.S. society have happened too fast or cultural changes in the United States have happened at a reasonable pace over the course of the past 25 years.

00:44:32.000 So that answer is 4949, 49, 49, right?

00:44:38.000 Literally half and half.

00:44:39.000 Half Americans think things are moving too fast.

00:44:41.000 Half Americans think that things are moving kind of reasonably.

00:44:46.000 The age breakdown is that as you get older, people think things are happening too fast.

00:44:51.000 Democrats overwhelmingly think that things are happening at a reasonable pace, two to one.

00:44:56.000 Republicans, two to one, think that things are happening too fast.

00:44:59.000 Independents are split exactly 50-50.

00:45:01.000 This is the nature of the division in the country.

00:45:04.000 This is the nature of the division in the country.

00:45:07.000 But here's the thing.

00:45:09.000 There is no one complaining that the change is happening too slowly.

00:45:14.000 Okay, that is the real key to this poll.

00:45:16.000 No one is saying that the change is happening too slowly, that we need to accelerate the pace of change in the United States.

00:45:22.000 No one is saying that.

00:45:25.000 Again, that's fascinating because what that means is that the sort of radical left, which wants to accelerate change, is not going to be popular.

00:45:32.000 And a radical right that also wishes to radically decelerate like change in the opposite direction or to a place that America never historically has been.

00:45:42.000 That is not what Americans want.

00:45:44.000 Virtually all Americans believe either that the pace of change is about right or that's moving too fast.

00:45:50.000 Americans are an incremental people. 0.99

00:45:52.000 We are not a radical change people.

00:45:54.000 That is not what we are.

00:45:56.000 Another basic split among Americans is whether people are responsible for their own needs on a basic individual level or the government is responsible for making sure the basic needs are met.

00:46:06.000 Directly 50-50, directly 50-50 again.

00:46:09.000 Democrats, 70-30 believe that the government should be responsible for making individuals' basic needs are met.

00:46:15.000 Republicans, 72 to 27, believe the opposite.

00:46:19.000 So despite the sort of populist movement believe that they can just side with the Democrats, most Republicans do not believe this.

00:46:27.000 Republicans are still pro-free market and individual responsibility.

00:46:30.000 This is, in fact, a hallmark of conservatism.

00:46:32.000 And the bizarre attempt to sort of retcon conservatism into a left-wing social democratic populism from Wisconsin in 1918 is bizarre for sure.

00:46:43.000 By the way, independents are split right down the middle.

00:46:45.000 Slightly more independents believe that people should be responsible for maintaining their own basic needs than that the government should be.

00:46:54.000 Okay, meanwhile, again, the bottom line is that there is discord here, but this is the Overton window.

00:47:01.000 Okay, the Overton window in America, meaning the place of kind of rational discourse is in the middle of all of this.

00:47:06.000 There are a lot of open questions to be left there, but there are a few things that Americans are pretty clearly rejecting overall.

00:47:12.000 One, political violence.

00:47:14.000 Two, the idea should never talk to or work with anybody on the other side of the political aisle.

00:47:18.000 And three, radical, fast change, radical change.

00:47:23.000 Americans don't love it.

00:47:25.000 They are not in favor of it.

00:47:26.000 They certainly don't want things accelerating from here.

00:47:29.000 So any accelerationism from either side is likely to be rejected by the American people.

00:47:34.000 Okay, meanwhile, our media are very much focused on accelerationism and partisanship and exacerbating it.

00:47:40.000 And again, this is not to avoid blame for partisan politicians who also do it, but I have to say that things are increasingly stupid here in the United States, like truly stupid.

00:47:51.000 So yesterday, the big story of the day was a rather stupid story.

00:47:56.000 It was let off by a bunch of Democrats.

00:47:59.000 We put up their video yesterday.

00:48:01.000 This is a bunch of Democrats ranging from Senator Alyssa Slotkin of Michigan to Representative Crowe, Jason Crowe of Colorado, calling on members of the military to disobey illegal orders.

00:48:14.000 Now, we should note what this is and what it isn't.

00:48:16.000 There's what it says, and then there's what it implies.

00:48:18.000 And now we're playing in the dumb space between them.

00:48:20.000 So what it actually says is not illegal.

00:48:22.000 Telling people they don't and cannot obey illegal orders, that, of course, is true. 1.00

00:48:27.000 Duh.

00:48:28.000 If somebody gives you an order to go mow down a bunch of school children for no reason, and there would be no reason, if someone tells you to go do that, then you have to disobey that order if you're in the U.S. military, obviously.

00:48:42.000 Okay, so the question becomes why they filmed that video.

00:48:44.000 And the answer is because the implication is that the Trump administration is routinely giving illegal orders, and thus you should just disobey the Trump administration.

00:48:51.000 So once again, we are living in stupid land where Democrats will interpret this video as saying nothing new and Republicans will interpret this video as saying that members of the military should disobey legal orders, not illegal orders.

00:49:03.000 Here's the video: like us, you all swore an oath to protect and defend this constitution.

00:49:09.000 Right now, the threats to our constitution aren't just coming from abroad, but from right here at home.

00:49:14.000 Our laws are clear.

00:49:15.000 You can refuse illegal orders.

00:49:17.000 You can refuse illegal orders.

00:49:20.000 You must refuse illegal orders.

00:49:22.000 No one has to carry out orders that violate the law or our Constitution.

00:49:26.000 We know this is hard and that it's a difficult time to be a public servant.

00:49:30.000 But whether you're serving in the CIA, the Army, or Navy, the Air Force, your vigilance is critical.

00:49:36.000 And know that we have your back.

00:49:38.000 Okay, so this pissed off President Trump, I think, kind of justifiably, because the implication is that President Trump is routinely giving illegal orders, which, of course, is not true.

00:49:46.000 Well, that then caused the President of the United States to put out a statement on Truth Social in which he said that these lawmakers were guilty of what he called, quote, seditious behavior, punishable by death, which, I mean, is that true? 0.56

00:50:04.000 I mean, no, there's not a court in America that could convict them of seditious behavior punishable by death.

00:50:04.000 No.

00:50:11.000 That is actually not seditious behavior punishable by death.

00:50:16.000 You may say that it is seditious behavior, but saying it's punishable by death means like a legal violation.

00:50:21.000 They would have to go to trial.

00:50:22.000 You'd have to make the claim that they were actually inciting treason against the government.

00:50:28.000 Hey, by the way, unlawfully failing to follow an order is not, in fact, punishable by death, even in the United States military.

00:50:37.000 He wrote, quote, each one of these traitors to our country should be arrested and put on trial.

00:50:41.000 Their words cannot be allowed to stand.

00:50:43.000 An example must be set.

00:50:45.000 Now, here's the thing about President Trump.

00:50:48.000 Here's the thing about President Trump.

00:50:50.000 We're all used to this by now.

00:50:51.000 Are we going back to 2017 when everybody just went nuts with their hair on fire about the crap that he was putting on at that time X or what was called Twitter at the time?

00:51:00.000 Like, we've done this before.

00:51:01.000 These sort of bizarre news cycles where Trump says something that is uncalibrated, to say the least, and then everybody runs around like a chicken with their head cut off.

00:51:11.000 Can we just point out Trump is not actual?

00:51:14.000 I understand that now we're doing the reverse, right?

00:51:17.000 Democrats are going to read that comment.

00:51:18.000 They're going to say he is literally calling for them to be arrested and put on trial and executed.

00:51:22.000 And if you read the language, that is literally what he is calling for.

00:51:25.000 And then there's the reality, which is Trump is not going to do any of that stuff, which we all know, obviously.

00:51:30.000 When Caroline Levitt was asked if President Trump wants people executed, here's what she had to say at the White House.

00:51:36.000 Just to be clear, does the president want to execute members of Congress?

00:51:41.000 No.

00:51:42.000 Let's be clear about what the president is responding to, because many in this room want to talk about the president's response, but not what brought the president to responding in this way.

00:51:53.000 You have sitting members of the United States Congress who conspired together to orchestrate a video message to members of the United States military, to active duty service members, to members of the national security apparatus, encouraging them to defy the president's lawful orders.

00:52:14.000 Okay, so, again, the answer that matters there is the beginning, where she says, no, he doesn't want people executed.

00:52:20.000 Democrats, of course, decided to jump on this and they make hay out of it, as one would.

00:52:24.000 So apparently, Democrats put out a statement from Mark Kelly, Alyssa Slotkin, Jason Crow, Crystal Luzio, Maggie Goodlander, and Chrissy Houlihan, who are the people in the video, in which they said, what's most telling is that the president considers it punishable by death for us to restate the law.

00:52:39.000 Our service members should know that we have their backs as they fulfill their oaths to the Constitution, an obligation to follow only lawful orders.

00:52:45.000 It is not only the right thing to do, but also our duty.

00:52:47.000 So they're going to rely on the literal thing that they said, which, again, understandable.

00:52:52.000 And they're going to avoid the implication of what they said.

00:52:54.000 This is what Representative Crowe had to say in his own defense.

00:52:58.000 To be clear, we are not calling on folks right now to debate, to disobey any type of unlawful order, right?

00:53:04.000 There is very real and deep concern about what this president has threatened to do over and over again.

00:53:11.000 There are three more years left of this administration.

00:53:13.000 If we are not talking about this and having a conversation about it and demystifying this conversation, we are not fulfilling our duty.

00:53:21.000 We are reminding people that have taken the oath what that oath requires of them to do.

00:53:26.000 Okay, can I just point out this whole controversy is incredibly stupid, like truly stupid, that Democrats put out there something inflammatory.

00:53:32.000 President Trump bit on the inflammatory thing and said something even more inflammatory.

00:53:35.000 And now everybody is just taking their various sides and complaining about it.

00:53:39.000 This is a stupid controversy.

00:53:41.000 Okay.

00:53:41.000 It's a stupid controversy that was generated by the left predominantly.

00:53:45.000 President Trump, again, went too far in his comments, which like I know, like we've seen him for 10 years.

00:53:51.000 Come on.

00:53:52.000 And then everybody went nuts in response.

00:53:54.000 Okay, now there's sort of a parallel stupid story, and that is that the president and vice president were not actually invited to the funeral for Dick Cheney.

00:54:02.000 So I have a rule about funerals.

00:54:04.000 The family gets to invite who they want.

00:54:05.000 That's my rule about funerals.

00:54:07.000 Nobody gets to make a claim that they should have a seat at somebody else's funeral.

00:54:11.000 That's really, really silly.

00:54:13.000 Now, I have a critique of who the Cheneys invited to the funeral.

00:54:16.000 It actually has nothing to do with Trump and Vance.

00:54:19.000 I totally understand.

00:54:20.000 If you are Dick Cheney and you opposed Trump and Vance and And Trump and Vans routinely attacked Liz Cheney, and Liz Cheney has a horrible relationship with Trump. 0.97

00:54:29.000 I totally get that.

00:54:31.000 Your dad is dead, and he's in the box in front of you on the stage.

00:54:34.000 You don't want to be looking over and seeing the people who basically destroyed your political career and who you attempted to foster impeachment charges against in President Trump or go after him post-January 6th.

00:54:44.000 Like, I totally get that.

00:54:46.000 You don't want that at the funeral, right?

00:54:47.000 I mean, just on a human level, you understand that.

00:54:49.000 I think the bigger question here is why, for example, President Biden was invited.

00:54:54.000 Because if you're talking about somebody who helped destroy Dick Cheney's legacy, one of those people would be Joe Biden, who is vice president, was very much in favor of the precipitous withdrawal from Iraq that led to the loss of some of the gains that had been actually made in the late stages of the Bush administration with the 2007 surge.

00:55:12.000 And then also, it was Joe Biden who presided over the complete collapse of American support in Afghanistan, handing the entire country back to the Taliban.

00:55:19.000 So, yeah, I have more critiques of the Cheney family for inviting Joe Biden than I do for the Cheney family inviting and not inviting Trump and Vans.

00:55:29.000 But, you know, the right is going a little bit nuts over this.

00:55:33.000 I don't know.

00:55:34.000 I'm just not there.

00:55:35.000 When it comes to funerals, basic rule, you get to invite who you want.

00:55:39.000 Joining us in the studio is Michael Watley.

00:55:41.000 He most recently served as chairman of the Republican National Committee after President Trump asked him to help lead the party's 2024 efforts.

00:55:48.000 He also previously served as the North Carolina Republican Party chairman.

00:55:52.000 Now he's running for Senate in North Carolina.

00:55:54.000 Michael, thanks so much for taking the time.

00:55:55.000 It's great to be on with you.

00:55:55.000 Really appreciate it.

00:55:56.000 So your race, I think it is not an exaggeration to say that in 2026, it may be the most important race in the country.

00:55:56.000 Thank you.

00:56:01.000 The amount of money that's going to flow into this race is extraordinary. 0.99

00:56:04.000 It is a purple state with an open seat.

00:56:06.000 Tom Tillis is stepping down from that seat.

00:56:09.000 So how does the race look?

00:56:10.000 Why is this race so important?

00:56:11.000 Well, the race is so important because North Carolina is a true bellwether state. 0.57

00:56:14.000 You know, it's one of the seven battleground states that we fought in 2016, 2020, and 2024.

00:56:21.000 And it is very close.

00:56:22.000 Like you said, it's a purple state.

00:56:24.000 We're 30% Republican.

00:56:25.000 We're 30% Democrat.

00:56:26.000 We're 40% unaffiliated.

00:56:29.000 So it's true purple.

00:56:31.000 And as North Carolina goes, I think honestly the Senate can go.

00:56:35.000 And when you talk about having a hold, we talk about a three-seat majority in the Senate right now for the Republicans.

00:56:43.000 That gets pretty dicey if we cannot hold on to North Carolina.

00:56:46.000 That's exactly right.

00:56:46.000 I mean, when you look at the map, you're looking at North Carolina.

00:56:49.000 You're looking at Maine.

00:56:50.000 You're looking possibly at Texas, possibly at Iowa.

00:56:53.000 It's not an easy map for Democrats, but if they take North Carolina, the map starts to get significantly more blue quickly.

00:56:58.000 One of the problems in North Carolina is that it used to be a little bit more red.

00:57:01.000 It's obviously moved more purple in recent years.

00:57:03.000 It was a bad gubernatorial race last time around.

00:57:05.000 Josh Stein is now the governor in North Carolina.

00:57:07.000 You're facing down Roy Cooper, the ex-governor of North Carolina.

00:57:12.000 Where do you think his vulnerabilities are?

00:57:13.000 What should people in the country and in North Carolina know about the former governor?

00:57:17.000 Well, I think the fact that he is a card-carrying member of the woke mob, and he has portrayed himself very successfully throughout his tenure as an elected official, as an awshawks guy from Nash County, North Carolina, trying to portray himself as a moderate.

00:57:31.000 But the fact is that this is a guy who has a record that is out of mainstream with North Carolina, whether it's on crime, whether it's on the budgets and tax cuts and the economy, or it's on any number of other issues where he is out of the mainstream.

00:57:48.000 But we need to spend the time prosecuting that case and letting people know about his record.

00:57:53.000 So when you talk about his record and in specific, what went wrong under his tenure in North Carolina, what do you think are sort of the big points that people need to know?

00:58:02.000 Sure.

00:58:02.000 Well, when you think about how you win in a state like North Carolina, right, or really any battleground state around the country, what we did with President Trump was we made it sure that everybody understood his agenda, which was to rebuild the economy, to restore our borders, and to make sure that America is respected again around the world.

00:58:20.000 What that translates to in North Carolina is you need economic policies that are going to create jobs and raise wages.

00:58:26.000 We need tax policy, trade policy, and regulatory policy that are going to help our small businesses, our manufacturers, and particularly our farmers.

00:58:35.000 So we're going to go out and we're going to work on that all day long.

00:58:39.000 We also have more men and women in uniform and veterans than any other state in the country.

00:58:44.000 So being able to ensure that they have what they need to protect our interests and allies around the world is going to be extraordinarily important for us.

00:58:52.000 And in this particular race, we really want to spend a lot of time focusing on the fact that the highest and most important function of any government is protecting its citizens.

00:59:02.000 And we have a governor who has not only vetoed legislation which would force sheriffs to honor ICE detainers and move criminal illegal aliens out of the state, he also issued an executive order while he was governor that created cashless bail, created pretrial release, and really emptied the jails.

00:59:21.000 And so we have a revolving door with criminals right now, with violent criminals in North Carolina that has caused a huge problem.

00:59:29.000 You know, many people recall that video, the horrific video from Charlotte Light Rail, where Irena Zorotska got off work at 1130, beautiful young lady, gets on the wrong rail car, sits in the wrong seat, and the guy behind her just horrifically slit her throat and killed her.

00:59:46.000 That guy had been arrested, DeCarlos Brown Jr., 14 times and released 14 times under Roy Cooper's soft-on crime policies.

00:59:53.000 You know, it is so prevalent.

00:59:55.000 We actually on the campaign started a digital campaign called Mugshot Mondays.

01:00:00.000 And every week we highlight somebody who's been arrested and released 50 times or more in North Carolina.

01:00:07.000 That's absolutely unacceptable.

01:00:09.000 And so when we think about what are the issue sets that really are going to matter in a place like Charlotte, in a place like Raleigh, in a place like Wilmington, North Carolina, in our rural areas, our urban areas, it's going to come down to making sure that we're keeping our kids and our communities safe.

01:00:26.000 As I mentioned before, the amount of money that's going to pour into this race is extraordinary. 0.99

01:00:29.000 Democrats are expected to raise just tons and tons of money to try and take this seat.

01:00:33.000 It'd be a flip, obviously.

01:00:35.000 How much money are they going to raise for this race?

01:00:37.000 You know, we're hearing projections as much as $600 to $800 million is going to be spent in North Carolina.

01:00:44.000 You know, and it was one of the most expensive Senate races in history back in 2020, the last time we were up with Tom Tillis.

01:00:52.000 And that's the seat that I'm going to be running for right now.

01:00:55.000 So it is, as you said, the Democrats understand that this is one where they think they can pick this off.

01:01:01.000 Roy Cooper has raised a ton of money for his governor's races previously.

01:01:06.000 And we know that he's going to have a ton of money.

01:01:08.000 So we're out making sure that we have the resources.

01:01:11.000 But I firmly believe, and Donald Trump is the most clear example of this in our lifetime, that good politics is a reflection of good policy.

01:01:21.000 And that when you go out there and you argue for the issues that the American people vote on, in my case, the issues that the North Carolina voters care about and put solutions on the table, that ultimately is going to be the most important factor in the race.

01:01:34.000 So for people who want to help out your campaign, obviously it's a huge campaign.

01:01:37.000 You've got to get started early.

01:01:38.000 So where should they go to help you out?

01:01:39.000 MichaelWatley.com.

01:01:40.000 You know, that's the website where folks can go and they can invest.

01:01:43.000 They can also sign up to be a volunteer.

01:01:45.000 You know, this is going to be a movement campaign.

01:01:47.000 We need to make sure that we have people that are up and that are out that are going to be making phone calls and knocking on doors.

01:01:53.000 And most importantly, having that five-minute conversation.

01:01:57.000 You know, anytime we have somebody have a five-minute conversation with a friend or a family member, a colleague, a coworker to talk about how important this race is, that's really, truly the most important factor that we can have.

01:02:08.000 And they can also follow me on X at Watley NC.

01:02:13.000 We've got about 100,000 followers and we've got a really good presence there and talk about all the issues that we really care about in this race.

01:02:20.000 Well, meanwhile, while the Democrats are spending enormous amounts of money or looking at spending enormous amounts of money in North Carolina, they're having some cash problems of their own.

01:02:27.000 So obviously that used to be your job at the RNC.

01:02:29.000 When you look at the Democratic National Committee having to take out a $15 million loan, what does that say to you?

01:02:34.000 Well, I think it says that the Democrats have really, truly learned nothing after the 2024 election cycle.

01:02:39.000 They ran as an open borders inflationary policy, woke, weak America party.

01:02:45.000 They lost.

01:02:46.000 They lost the House.

01:02:47.000 They lost the Senate.

01:02:48.000 They lost the presidential race.

01:02:50.000 And they've really truly doubled down on that agenda right now.

01:02:53.000 It's not a surprise that they cannot raise the type of money that they are used to having, right?

01:02:59.000 And the Republican Party, we set up a very positive relationship with donors and supporters all across the country and were able to make sure that we had the resources that we needed.

01:03:11.000 When I left the RNC, I think we were $80, $85 million cash on hand for the DNC right now to have $3 million cash on hand before that loan.

01:03:20.000 I really think it shows you that not just physically they're bankrupt, but in terms of their agenda, that they do not have an agenda that is inspiring the American people right now.

01:03:30.000 Well, Michael Wiley, good luck in your race.

01:03:32.000 Thank you so much for stopping by.

01:03:33.000 Thank you.

01:03:33.000 Really good.

01:03:34.000 Really appreciate it.

01:03:35.000 Joining us on the line is investigative reporter for the Daily Wire, Luke Roziak.

01:03:39.000 He is also an award-winning journalist.

01:03:42.000 He just won an investigative journalism award for his Doge reporting, the prestigious Dow Prize.

01:03:47.000 Luke, thanks so much for joining me, Chubb.

01:03:48.000 I really appreciate it.

01:03:50.000 Thanks for having me.

01:03:50.000 Hey, Ben.

01:03:51.000 So congratulations on that.

01:03:52.000 Explain what the Dow Prize is and why it matters.

01:03:55.000 It's sort of an alternative to the Pulitzer Prize for conservative-leaning or independent journalists.

01:04:01.000 And it's sort of a big deal.

01:04:03.000 This guy named Dow Feng, who's a businessman who escaped communist China and loves America, teamed up with the National Journalism Center and kind of went all out.

01:04:14.000 So there was this fancy gala in D.C. on Wednesday.

01:04:17.000 Everybody was there in the Washington, D.C. conservative reporting world.

01:04:22.000 And they gave out some big prizes, including big cash prizes.

01:04:27.000 And all of this is because the Pulitzers, of course, have given awards to left-wing stories that are like literally provably wrong.

01:04:36.000 So let's talk about your reporting on Doge.

01:04:38.000 Obviously, you won an awards for going inside what Doge was doing.

01:04:43.000 What has been the long-term impact of Doge?

01:04:44.000 Because obviously it was a very hot topic very early on in the administration.

01:04:47.000 It seems to have fallen out of the headlines a lot.

01:04:49.000 What do you think the impact of Doge was and is?

01:04:53.000 You know, we've got to make sure it has long-term impact.

01:04:56.000 I think the best thing that happened was sort of just a renewed enthusiasm, putting the idea that we as conservatives should be against government waste back on the radar, because it was certainly something we had kind of forgotten about for a few years there.

01:05:13.000 Obviously, they've got to deal with the injunctions.

01:05:15.000 They've got to make sure that not too many layoffs are kind of reversed because of things like the shutdown negotiations.

01:05:24.000 But I think that really it just was a return to sort of founding principles that this is a classic thing that Republicans should be concerned about.

01:05:34.000 So there was a lot more attention to things like inspectors general and the government accountability office and people like that who hopefully will be empowered and will be sort of in the spotlight even as Doge itself kind of recedes.

01:05:49.000 So Luke, obviously one of the big factors here was the involvement of Elon Musk.

01:05:54.000 Elon and the president have had some hot times, have had some cold times, been a love-hate, lukewarm, very hot, very cold relationship.

01:06:01.000 Where do things currently stand with the president and Elon?

01:06:04.000 I believe he was in D.C. this week.

01:06:07.000 Traffic was certainly shut down during the awards ceremony.

01:06:09.000 It was very difficult to get in.

01:06:11.000 And I think that's because they had Elon and the Saudis and some others all at the Kennedy Center.

01:06:16.000 So I think they're buds again.

01:06:18.000 So Luke Roziak, congrats again on winning this prize.

01:06:22.000 It's very cool for you, very cool for the Daily Wire as well.

01:06:24.000 That's Luke Roziak, our investigative reporter here at the Daily Wire.

01:06:27.000 Luke, thanks for the time.

01:06:28.000 Thanks, Ben.

01:06:29.000 All righty, folks, the show continues for our members right now.

01:06:32.000 We will get into a strong pitch from the president to Ukraine about a Russia-Ukraine peace deal.

01:06:37.000 What does that look like?

01:06:38.000 Is it good?

01:06:38.000 Is it bad?

01:06:39.000 Remember, in order to watch, you have to be a member.

01:06:40.000 If you're not a member, become a member, use code Shapiro at checkout for two months free on all annual plans.

The Ben Shapiro Show - November 21, 2025

What The HELL Is Going On With The Economy?!

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