The Ben Shapiro Show - Why Are Republicans Losing 2022 Election Momentum?

00:00:00.000 The Democrats gain in congressional polling as November approaches, and the media are eager to chalk it up to dark Biden.

00:00:05.000 Americans remain in the dark about the FBI's raid on Donald Trump, and Lizzo's defenders come to her rescue after a comedian tells jokes about her.

00:00:12.000 I'm Ben Shapiro.

00:00:12.000 This is the Ben Shapiro Show.

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00:01:42.000 Well.

00:01:43.000 A cloud of disquiet has now lowered itself upon the Republican Party.

00:01:47.000 The Republican Party thought that they were just gonna run away with the 2022 election cycle.

00:01:52.000 It no longer looks like this is the case.

00:01:53.000 According to Nate Silver, there is now a two-thirds chance that the Republicans lose the Senate.

00:01:58.000 And they are favored, of course, to win the House because they have a very, very small gap in the House.

00:02:02.000 It would be almost impossible for them not to take back the House.

00:02:05.000 The kind of wave election that people were talking about even six weeks ago, no longer appears to be on the horizon for the Republicans.

00:02:11.000 There are a bunch of factors that are responsible for this.

00:02:13.000 The media are trying to chalk it up to the rise of dark Biden.

00:02:16.000 The idea being that Joe Biden is just a magic, magic man.

00:02:19.000 And he has somehow revived himself before he was a dead body, like lying prone in the corner.

00:02:23.000 Now he's active, man.

00:02:25.000 He's got his inflation reduction act that doesn't reduce inflation and also spends an enormous amount of money.

00:02:29.000 He's doing his student loan bailout and those are going to get people really jazzed to go out to the polls.

00:02:34.000 It's all about dark Biden.

00:02:35.000 They've revived this meme that actually started on the Trumpian right about Joe Biden.

00:02:40.000 It was a joke about Joe Biden basically no longer being a sentient human being.

00:02:44.000 And it started off, I believe actually the original dark Biden meme started off as a, as a Chinese cartoon about Joe Biden being like a dark Lord.

00:02:54.000 An edgelord.

00:02:55.000 And so there are all of these memes that are out and about about Joe Biden, and they show him with glowing eyes and shooting lasers from his face and all this kind of stuff.

00:03:02.000 I mean, here is a here's, for example, a dark Biden meme video that has become very popular.

00:03:06.000 You can see there he is, Joe Biden sitting atop a Game of Thrones style throne with zombies in This apparently started again as a sort of Chinese cartoon.

00:03:21.000 And the dark Biden memes have been coming fast and furious.

00:03:25.000 And the idea being that he is actually amazing at this.

00:03:28.000 He's actually secretly an amazing president, a dark lord who has powers beyond human recognition and all of the rest of this sort of stuff.

00:03:37.000 Yeah, him as a pirate, all the rest of it.

00:03:39.000 And it's kind of funny in the sense that he's no longer with us.

00:03:43.000 Like every time he talks, you're like, I don't even know what this human being is anymore.

00:03:48.000 And of course, maybe that's the irony of the dark Biden memes is that, is that Joe Biden is no longer with us.

00:03:54.000 I mean, he's actually being steered around by his wife.

00:03:56.000 There was video that emerged over the weekend of Joe Biden being physically guided by Jill backwards.

00:04:03.000 Like Joe Biden is standing near the media.

00:04:04.000 She walks up behind him and she starts backing him away from the media.

00:04:08.000 So, I mean, the idea that it's like dark Lord Joe Biden, again, It's a creation of the online memery, but it underscores what Democrats actually think about this guy.

00:04:18.000 Now, the reality, of course, is that he is not with us.

00:04:20.000 And he is, he is El-Sid.

00:04:22.000 They have propped him on a horse, and he is a corpse, and they are just moving him around at this point.

00:04:28.000 There he is, and there comes Jill, and she's backing him away.

00:04:31.000 Like, the fact that no one comments on this is really astonishing to me.

00:04:35.000 I'm sorry.

00:04:36.000 It's super funny.

00:04:37.000 Like, he's standing there, and she, like, backs him away the way I would my child.

00:04:41.000 This is, like, what I would do with my two-year-old.

00:04:42.000 You're too close.

00:04:43.000 You're too close to the sink.

00:04:45.000 And I just kind of back her away.

00:04:47.000 But according to the Democrats, Dark Lord Biden is back.

00:04:50.000 Again, the polls are showing that the Democrats are making a comeback here.

00:04:54.000 According to the Wall Street Journal, Republicans remain the favorites to win control of the House of Representatives in the midterm elections.

00:04:58.000 But Democrats, who for over a year have braced for large losses, are finishing the summer in a stronger position than where they started.

00:05:04.000 Public polling and recent election results are prompting Democrats and nonpartisan election observers and some Republicans to expect a more competitive battle this fall.

00:05:11.000 Republicans in need of just a handful of sea pickups to take over the House, which Democrats currently control, 220 to 211.

00:05:16.000 There are four vacancies.

00:05:18.000 Nathan Gonzalez and Jacob Robashkin of Inside Elections, a nonpartisan election watcher, say, quote, the party in power typically doesn't improve its electoral prospects in the final months of a midterm, but that's where we appear to be.

00:05:28.000 The analysts cited various factors helping Democrats as they try to close the gap.

00:05:31.000 Those include the fight over abortion access, weak GOP candidates in key races, investigations focused on Donald Trump, and a recent drop in gasoline prices.

00:05:38.000 They added that districts that Biden carried by at least 10 percentage points seemed more out of reach for the GOP than at this point last year.

00:05:43.000 And that's of course correct.

00:05:45.000 There's a lot of talk.

00:05:46.000 Again, six months ago, that anything that was within a D plus 10 was a Republican pickup opportunity.

00:05:51.000 Now it looks like unless it's like a D plus five or less, that's going to remain in Democratic hands.

00:05:56.000 The nonpartisan Cook political report lowered its projection for GOP pickups to the range of 10 to 20 seats, which would win the chamber.

00:06:02.000 But that is way down from 15 to 30 seats.

00:06:05.000 Cook said he couldn't rule out the possibility that the Democrats retain their majority, citing elevated Democratic turnout.

00:06:10.000 Jamie Harrison, The chair of the DNC predicted on Sunday the midterms will see Democrats gain seat in the U.S.

00:06:15.000 Senate, pick up some governor's mansions, and hold on to their majority in the House of Representatives.

00:06:18.000 He says the momentum is real.

00:06:21.000 And by polling data, the momentum is in fact real.

00:06:24.000 And again, Nate Silver is now suggesting that there's a two-thirds possibility.

00:06:28.000 That the Republicans actually lose the Senate, you know, that the Democrats retain control of the Senate, and he's suggesting a better-than-average chance that the Democrats lose a very small number of seats in the House.

00:06:39.000 Meanwhile, the Senate GOP is apparently already abandoning a bunch of key Senate races.

00:06:43.000 According to Politico, Senate Republicans' primary super PAC is canceling a $10 million ad buy in Arizona, raising questions about the party's commitment to Blake Masters.

00:06:51.000 That's the Senate nominee in the Copper State.

00:06:53.000 Mark Kelly is the current seat holder there.

00:06:55.000 So this means that they're Several states where Democrats should be highly vulnerable, where they just do not appear to be nearly as vulnerable as they were thought to be.

00:07:03.000 John Fetterman, who is no longer alive.

00:07:05.000 John Fetterman is walking around like young Frankenstein's monsters.

00:07:08.000 Peter Boyle doing the shuffle.

00:07:10.000 And he is right now up on Meminaz in Pennsylvania.

00:07:12.000 You have Raphael Warnock, who's a disaster area of a candidate, who is still up on Herschel Walker, another disaster area of a candidate in Georgia.

00:07:18.000 You have Mark Kelly, who is right now up on Blake Masters in Arizona.

00:07:23.000 And all three of those races are races that should have swung to the Republicans.

00:07:26.000 So again, about a two-thirds shot that the Republicans don't take the Senate, which means they really, really need to take the House.

00:07:31.000 And by the way, they need a margin in the House.

00:07:33.000 Because if you have a margin of like four or five seats in the House, it isn't that hard for Democrats to peel off four or five Republicans to vote for some of their favorite priorities.

00:07:41.000 So the fact that the Republicans are pulling out of places like Arizona obviously is showing a certain amount of weakness.

00:07:49.000 Well, you know, Democrats keep insisting they are doing better because of Joe Biden, the magic of Joe Biden.

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00:09:00.000 Now, as I say, Democrats are trying to attribute this mainly to Joe Biden, but there are several factors here.

00:09:05.000 So Charles Blow, who's the worst columnist in America, he writes for the New York Times.

00:09:08.000 I'm not sure he's ever written a correct thing.

00:09:10.000 He has a piece today at the New York Times titled Biden becomes a boon for Democrats.

00:09:14.000 He says the coattail effect in politics is the theory that the popularity of a candidate at the top of the ticket redounds to the benefit of those in the same party down ballot.

00:09:20.000 You vote Democratic for President, you might vote Democratic for Senate or Mayor.

00:09:24.000 But what do you call it when a person from whom the benefit flows is not actually on the ballot?

00:09:27.000 What if the person isn't even personally that popular?

00:09:29.000 Let's call it phantom coattails.

00:09:31.000 This is what I believe is happening with President Biden at the moment.

00:09:33.000 Now, you don't have to call it anything else.

00:09:34.000 It is the coattail effect because, again, the president's approval rating has a very heavy correlation with how his party does in the midterm elections.

00:09:41.000 But, says Charles Blow, Joe Biden's string of successes is building momentum and shaking off narratives of ineffectiveness.

00:09:48.000 Last week, he announced the federal government would forgive billions of dollars of student loan debt.

00:09:50.000 Republicans predictably squawked about it being an unfair giveaway.

00:09:53.000 Progressives complained the plan didn't go far enough, but Biden did act.

00:09:56.000 He did fulfill his campaign promise to a degree.

00:09:58.000 That is crucial.

00:09:59.000 After some major losses on liberal priorities like voter protections and police reform, voters needed more wins.

00:10:04.000 It wasn't Biden's fault his agenda was blocked.

00:10:06.000 For that, the blame goes to obstructionist Republicans and Demi-Democrats like Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema.

00:10:10.000 There was, however, a sense setting in that electing an elderly institutionalist meant he wasn't filled with enough fight, that he was guided by a sort of geriatric gentility.

00:10:18.000 Biden's recent wins put a major dent in those perceptions and are changing how people feel about him.

00:10:22.000 According to FiveThirtyEight's Poll of Polls, his approval rating, while still underwater, has been trending up for the past month.

00:10:26.000 This week it reached 44%, the highest it has been in a year.

00:10:29.000 Again, they keep championing this 44% number.

00:10:31.000 That is a bad number, guys.

00:10:33.000 Donald Trump's midterm election numbers in 2018 were about 44%.

00:10:37.000 And the Democrats ended up taking a bunch of seats.

00:10:39.000 So this notion that Joe Biden's approval rating is really what is driving this, that's not true.

00:10:44.000 So what exactly is driving all of this?

00:10:48.000 Well, the thing, as it turns out, that is driving all of this is not underlying systemic Republican weakness.

00:10:55.000 It is not underlying Democratic strength.

00:10:58.000 What is underlying all of this is a couple of extraneous factors that are playing into the election.

00:11:03.000 Extraneous factor number one is abortion.

00:11:06.000 As we've seen, four special elections since the Dobbs decision was brought down by the Supreme Court over ruling Roe versus Wade.

00:11:13.000 In all four of those elections, Democrats have overperformed in these special elections.

00:11:16.000 It's a very, very clear pattern.

00:11:18.000 Before that, Republicans were actually outperforming.

00:11:20.000 Now, after that, there are four special elections and Democrats have outperformed in each one of those.

00:11:25.000 Okay, so that is obviously one major factor.

00:11:28.000 According to 538, the special election, I can give you the special election results right here, the timeline.

00:11:34.000 So the margin swing in terms of where the partisan lean was in a district to where the vote margin was in special elections.

00:11:42.000 Here are the results from 2022.

00:11:43.000 So in January of 2022, There was a swing in Florida's 20th from a D-plus-53 district to a D-plus-60 district, so a D-plus-7.

00:11:52.000 That was a hugely Democratic district.

00:11:54.000 And then you had California's 22nd district in June, this early June of 2022.

00:11:58.000 It went from an R-plus-11 district to an R-plus-24 district.

00:12:02.000 It was a Republican shift by 14 points.

00:12:05.000 And then you had the Texas 34th district, which shifted from D-plus-5 to R-plus-5.

00:12:09.000 That was widely noted.

00:12:10.000 That was an R-plus-10 swing.

00:12:13.000 Since Dobbs, you've had four special elections.

00:12:16.000 In Nebraska's 1st district, that was an R-plus-17 district.

00:12:19.000 The Republican was supposed to run away with it.

00:12:20.000 The Republican did win, but only by fives.

00:12:22.000 That was a D-plus-12 swing.

00:12:24.000 August 9th, you had an election in Minnesota's 1st.

00:12:27.000 That was an R-plus-15 district.

00:12:28.000 The Republican only won by fours.

00:12:29.000 That was a D-plus-11 swing.

00:12:31.000 August 23rd, you had two elections in New York.

00:12:34.000 One was an R-plus-4 district, and the Democrat actually won the seat.

00:12:37.000 That turned into a D-plus-2 district.

00:12:39.000 That's a D-plus-6 swing.

00:12:41.000 And there was New York's 23rd district, where it went from an R-plus-15 district to an R-plus-7 district, which means a Democratic nine-point swing.

00:12:48.000 So you're talking about significant swings in favor of Democrats, and ignoring the writing on the wall here is a mistake.

00:12:53.000 Obviously, Dobbs is playing a role.

00:12:56.000 But what is not playing the main role here is that Joe Biden is a good president, or that Joe Biden is wildly popular, or that Joe Biden is blowing wind into the sails of the Democratic Party, or that this revised dream of the new Democratic majority is back online.

00:13:10.000 So again, there are two myths about American politics that have been driving each side.

00:13:14.000 So there's a myth about American politics on the left, and there's a myth about American politics on the right.

00:13:18.000 The myth about American politics on the left was propagated by Barack Obama in 2012 in the entire Democratic media.

00:13:23.000 And that myth was there was a new majority-minority-plus-college-educated-white-liberals coalition, and it was going to win from here until the end of time.

00:13:30.000 When Barack Obama won in 2012, that was the narrative that emerged.

00:13:34.000 And it turns out that that narrative is false.

00:13:36.000 But because that has been the narrative, This is why Democrats have said it was impossible for Hillary Clinton to lose in 2016.

00:13:41.000 After all, we have systemic advantages, right?

00:13:43.000 We have a new majority minority coalition.

00:13:45.000 There is no way we could possibly lose an election like we did in 2016.

00:13:48.000 It must have been stolen.

00:13:50.000 Now, on the right, there was a sort of countervailing Myth.

00:13:55.000 And that myth was buying into the Democrats myth.

00:13:57.000 It was, you know, they're right.

00:13:58.000 There is this new emerging Democratic minority coalition.

00:14:01.000 And what this means is we have to stop minorities from coming into the country.

00:14:04.000 And it also means that if somebody on the Republican side of the aisle wins, if Donald Trump wins, it's because he's a magic person.

00:14:10.000 He has the ability, he has magic that flows through him.

00:14:13.000 And this magic means that he is the only one who can win.

00:14:17.000 That magic is defeating the dark magic of the Democrats.

00:14:20.000 This is sort of the narrative box into which we have put ourselves.

00:14:24.000 The problem is that entire narrative is wrong.

00:14:25.000 It's having consequences for both sides of the aisle.

00:14:28.000 Ironically enough, it's really kind of fascinating.

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00:15:35.000 I've quoted Roy Teixeira on this program before because he's a really interesting thinker.

00:15:43.000 Roy Teixeira was one of the originators of the New Democratic Majority Minority Coalition back in 2003.

00:15:48.000 He wrote a book with John Judas called The New Democratic Majority.

00:15:51.000 The Emerging Democrat Majority, I think was the name of the book.

00:15:54.000 And he has since recanted that.

00:15:56.000 He has since said, that just doesn't exist.

00:15:58.000 So he explained in an interview with the Wall Street Journal over the weekend, why exactly this new emerging Democratic majority never actually emerged.

00:16:09.000 He says, the Democrats still dominate the minority vote, but you're starting to see minorities turn away from the Democrats.

00:16:17.000 In Mr. Teixeira's view, according to the Wall Street Journal, Democrats in the Obama years, quote, had a better idea about how to appeal to so-called people of color.

00:16:23.000 First, they didn't call them people of color.

00:16:25.000 It was more like, we're all in this together, we're Americans, black, white, whatever, red states, blue states, we want to have an America where everybody can rise up together.

00:16:31.000 By contrast, Teixeira quotes the anti-racist scholar Ibram X. Kendi, the only remedy to past discrimination is present discrimination.

00:16:38.000 This isn't a new idea, just as Harry Blackmun, borrowing from Ford Foundation President McGeorge Bundy, wrote in Regents of the University of California v. Bakke in 78, quote, In order to get beyond racism, we must first take account of race.

00:16:50.000 There is no other way.

00:16:51.000 And in order to treat some persons equally, we must treat them differently.

00:16:54.000 Even these blunt sentiments seem genteel compared with what Mr. Teixeira reports having heard lately from erstwhile colleagues on the left.

00:17:00.000 Quote, you're going to tell all white people in this country they have white privilege and we're a white supremacist society and that we're all guilty of microaggressions every day in every way?

00:17:08.000 Not only is this substantively wrong in my opinion, but as politics, it's bat bleep crazy.

00:17:12.000 You can't win if people think that's where you're coming from.

00:17:14.000 What country do you think you're living in?

00:17:16.000 Tashara acknowledges that this is a development that the emerging Democratic majority failed to foresee.

00:17:21.000 Quote, we didn't anticipate the extent to which cultural liberalism might segue into cultural radicalism and the extent to which that view, particularly as driven by younger cohorts, would wind up imprinting itself on the entire infrastructure in and around the Democratic Party.

00:17:33.000 The advocacy groups, the foundations, academia, of course, certainly the lower and middle levels of the Democratic Party infrastructure itself.

00:17:40.000 A decade ago, says Teixeira, quote, the typical response of people on the left when you bring this up was, oh, it's just crazy kids in the universities.

00:17:45.000 Not to worry.

00:17:46.000 Once they get out on the real world, they'll act a bit differently.

00:17:49.000 It's like a fad, like goldfish swallowing or something.

00:17:51.000 That turned out to be so wrong.

00:17:52.000 They came out in large numbers.

00:17:53.000 They didn't give up their points of view.

00:17:54.000 They pressed them vigorously.

00:17:55.000 And more and more of them came out of the universities.

00:17:58.000 If Democrats stand for unacceptable ideas and are openly contemptuous of enormous numbers of their fellow citizens, how do they manage to win elections at all?

00:18:05.000 That's an easy one.

00:18:06.000 Republicans have some unpopular ideas, too.

00:18:08.000 And in any election, voters are constrained to consider the alternative.

00:18:12.000 So what is to share?

00:18:12.000 It says both parties have problems, deep problems, in terms of being able to develop a stable majority coalition.

00:18:18.000 He says the Democrats' difficulties may actually run deeper.

00:18:20.000 Many of the Republican Party's current problems revolve around the figure of Trump and personalized Trumpism.

00:18:25.000 If Republicans can get rid of or sideline that one figure, they might suddenly have a relatively clear path to developing an appeal to the center of the American electorate.

00:18:32.000 His warning to Democrats is, you won't always have Trump to kick around.

00:18:35.000 You're going to have to deal with smarter, better versions of a similar thing.

00:18:37.000 OK, so the point here is that what is happening in terms of the Democrats regaining steam right before the election?

00:18:45.000 is not the revivification of the democratic dream of this majority minority coalition that is largely driven by radical excesses in the base.

00:18:55.000 That is not going to win elections.

00:18:57.000 And yet Democrats continue to double down on this.

00:18:59.000 They continue to be driven in sort of cultural political terms, not by the moderates in their coalition, but by the radicals in their coalition, by a constant narrative that there is victimization occurring at the broadest levels in the American Republic, and that this victimization is what lies behind nearly all structures of power in the United States.

00:19:18.000 You can see it everywhere.

00:19:19.000 You can see this from Hillary Clinton, the standard bearer in 2016, to Lizzo over the weekend.

00:19:24.000 This is really, really funny.

00:19:26.000 Hillary Clinton, who's been trying to reemerge on the political stage, as we've been talking about.

00:19:30.000 She has a documentary that is coming out with Apple TV in which she basically feats herself as a wondrously brave human being.

00:19:38.000 Well, now she's tweeting out support for the prime minister of Finland, Santa Marin, who was on videotape at a party where people were making drug jokes, dancing in a rather provocative fashion.

00:19:51.000 And Hillary Clinton tweeted out a photo of herself dancing when she was secretary of state in drunken fashion.

00:19:58.000 As Ann Richards said, Ginger Rogers did everything that Fred Astaire did.

00:20:01.000 She just did it backwards and in high heels.

00:20:03.000 Here's me in Cartagena while I was there for a meeting as secretary of state.

00:20:06.000 Keep dancing, Marin Santa.

00:20:08.000 And Marincena then responded, thank you, Hillary Clinton, heart emoji.

00:20:14.000 So again, this idea that all women are victimized.

00:20:16.000 They're all victimized.

00:20:17.000 It's just so terrible.

00:20:20.000 Women are victimized.

00:20:21.000 And same thing from Lizzo.

00:20:22.000 So the Video Music Awards, which I'm not sure anybody watches anymore, but are still a thing.

00:20:26.000 Lizzo won an award for Video for Good.

00:20:30.000 I don't know what that means.

00:20:31.000 And apparently neither did Lizzo.

00:20:33.000 And she gets up and she talks about how victimized everybody is.

00:20:35.000 And we're talking about the new woke coalition inside the Democratic Party.

00:20:38.000 This is a pretty good indicator of it.

00:20:40.000 Here is Lizzo.

00:20:45.000 I don't know what music video for good means, but I do know what your vote means.

00:20:50.000 And that's a f***ing lot.

00:20:52.000 Your vote means everything to me.

00:20:55.000 It means everything to making a change in this country.

00:21:02.000 So remember when you're voting for your favorite artists, vote to change some of these laws that are oppressing us.

00:21:07.000 It's hard to think of a less oppressed figure than Lizzo, particularly.

00:21:18.000 I'm not sure exactly what she is wearing there.

00:21:21.000 Particularly, I'm always puzzled by the generalized trend, not unique to Lizzo, of wearing an earring that goes to your nose.

00:21:27.000 I just don't understand why that's in any way supposed to be attractive.

00:21:31.000 It's hard to think of a less oppressed human being.

00:21:33.000 But again, she is oppressed.

00:21:35.000 The idea from the Democratic coalition, both culturally and politically, is that we are the coalition of the oppressed.

00:21:40.000 And the coalition of the oppressed is going to rise up.

00:21:42.000 And this coalition is going to take back the heart of American politics.

00:21:45.000 And this is a danger to the Democrats.

00:21:46.000 The more they preach that, the more they lose.

00:21:49.000 And so the Democrats have that emerging Democratic majority theory still has not died in Democratic circles, which is why everybody has to remain a victim.

00:21:58.000 In fact, that hierarchy of victimhood inside the Democratic Party is a competitive thing.

00:22:01.000 The more victimized you are, the higher you rank in Democratic politics.

00:22:05.000 While we're on the subject of Lizzo, by the way, I noticed that there is a comedian named Ari Spears who is now in all sorts of trouble for quote unquote victimizing Lizzo, who again is a very not oppressed human being.

00:22:15.000 Lizzo is extraordinarily rich.

00:22:17.000 She's wearing probably a $10,000 dress holding an actual metal idol while being cheered by throngs.

00:22:24.000 But apparently she's oppressed because somebody told a joke about the fact that she is she's fat.

00:22:27.000 Lizzo is not a very oppressed person.

00:22:29.000 She's just not.

00:22:30.000 But she says that she is.

00:22:32.000 We'll get to that in a moment.

00:22:33.000 First, let's talk about your safety and security at home.

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00:23:16.000 Plus, with a Ring Protect Pro subscription, which is an amazing deal by the way because I have it, I hate to break it to the world, but Lizzo is overweight.

00:23:22.000 I know this is groundbreaking stuff here.

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00:23:37.000 I hate to break it to the world, but Lizzo is overweight.

00:23:40.000 I know this is groundbreaking stuff here.

00:23:42.000 I mean, literally like it cracks the ground, but she is an overweight person.

00:23:45.000 The funniest thing about our culture, by the way, is that if Lizzo says, I am fat and I am sex positive, I'm a fat, sex-positive female.

00:23:56.000 And if I say, she is a fat, sex positive female, everybody's like, no!

00:24:00.000 You're not allowed to repeat the thing she just said.

00:24:02.000 Anyway, Barry Spears is a comedian.

00:24:04.000 He told jokes about her.

00:24:05.000 You're not allowed to tell jokes about the fact that Lizzo is overweight.

00:24:08.000 So here is Barry Spears.

00:24:10.000 Apparently a man of color who is oppressing a woman of color because, again, it's just a competition of oppressiveness here in the United States.

00:24:17.000 Here is Harry Spears saying the unsayable.

00:24:21.000 Yo, you know somebody that actually make good music, man?

00:24:23.000 Lizzo.

00:24:24.000 Lizzo?

00:24:26.000 Have you heard her?

00:24:26.000 Yeah, bro.

00:24:28.000 Like as a songwriter, yo.

00:24:31.000 I can't get past the fact that she looks like the emoji.

00:24:38.000 Very beautiful girl.

00:24:39.000 She's got a very pretty face, but she keeps showing her body off.

00:24:44.000 Like, come on, man.

00:24:45.000 I'm sorry.

00:24:46.000 Listen, I ain't the most in shape in the world, but I still, you know, when you funny and you got swagger and confidence and you decent looking, I think I'm at least handsome, you get But a woman that's built like a plate of mashed potatoes is in trouble.

00:25:03.000 Musically, yo.

00:25:04.000 She good hard, man.

00:25:05.000 She a good songwriter, though.

00:25:07.000 Oh, yo, she's... Yeah, she's dope!

00:25:09.000 Her music hard, her body ain't.

00:25:14.000 So he got ripped up and down.

00:25:15.000 People were so mad.

00:25:18.000 How dare he notice?

00:25:19.000 How dare he notice?

00:25:20.000 And people were tweeting out, Aries Spears, a fat black man out of breath while sitting and talking, discussing diabetes and being fat, aimed at Lizzo, who performs and sings while being fat, is insane.

00:25:28.000 But he actually said, the rest of the clip is, he talks about why is it that everybody is praising her for being large, when in fact, one of the biggest problems in the United States is

00:25:40.000 is the problems with obesity said f diabetes f heart problems f heart disease f cholesterol y'all claim womanhood and about sisterhood and support for your sister you know when it comes to that ridiculous bleep but if you really gave a bleep why wouldn't you go black girl we love your confidence boo boo but this ain't it they say it that's the real love y'all jump on me for making jokes but y'all won't be effing real and go sister put the eclair down this ain't it it's treadmill time By the way, he's not wrong that we have a society in which we actively praise people for being massively overweight.

00:26:09.000 You saw this happen not with Eliza, it happened with Adele.

00:26:11.000 Adele was overweight.

00:26:12.000 She lost a bunch of weight and people were mad at her for losing the weight.

00:26:15.000 Because it's more important that everybody be considered a victim of society.

00:26:19.000 And so the best way to be a victim of society is to victimize yourself by being overweight.

00:26:24.000 And then everybody points out that you're overweight.

00:26:27.000 You make a point of you being overweight and being famous because you're, I mean, Lizzo is not exactly not trading on the fact that she's overweight.

00:26:33.000 That's one of her draws, not gravitationally, but actually like that's one of her business draws is the fact that she is overweight.

00:26:39.000 You know, the stupidest game in our culture is, look at me.

00:26:42.000 I'm a groundbreaking, unique artist who is doing this crazy thing.

00:26:49.000 And then we're like, yeah, we notice.

00:26:49.000 Notice me!

00:26:50.000 And we think that's probably not, like, great for the culture.

00:26:53.000 You have to praise it.

00:26:53.000 Like, how dare you?

00:26:55.000 That's the only way.

00:26:55.000 Some people are very mad at Aries Spears for pointing this out.

00:26:58.000 Somebody else tweeted, Aries Spears is ugly, unfunny, and has no swagger or confidence, but he's speaking on a black woman's looks.

00:27:02.000 Bleep, you are sweating while sitting down.

00:27:04.000 You could never complete one of Lizzo's dance routines, but you want to talk about diabetes and high cholesterol?

00:27:09.000 I'm still confused.

00:27:10.000 Is it good to be at least 100 pounds overweight, like as a general thing?

00:27:14.000 Are we supposed to pretend that Lizzo is traditionally beautiful?

00:27:19.000 Is that required?

00:27:20.000 It is!

00:27:21.000 It is required of this culture.

00:27:23.000 By the way, when you see the cultural arbiters strenuously screaming to the sky that a person is beautiful, forget about Lizzo, just generally, that a person is beautiful, when this becomes a point of contention, that a person is beautiful, so beautiful, unbelievably beautiful, what that means is that the person's not beautiful.

00:27:40.000 Because nobody's ever had to say that about like Heidi Klum in her heyday, or Tyra Banks in her heyday.

00:27:44.000 Like no one ever had to say, you know who's beautiful?

00:27:46.000 Tyra Banks!

00:27:47.000 Like, yeah, right, because, uh-huh.

00:27:52.000 But again, the sort of oppressiveness is a political thing.

00:27:56.000 And that political thing is not going to win Democrats any points.

00:28:01.000 And it's not so it's it's not what is driving Democrats and their upswing here is obviously not systemic factors that are sort of ideological or cultural in nature.

00:28:09.000 It is not Joe Biden.

00:28:10.000 In fact, a Florida Democratic candidate named Annette Taddea was was asked on national television whether she wants Joe Biden to campaign with her.

00:28:18.000 And she was like, well, no.

00:28:22.000 President Biden's approval rating has hovered close to 40 percent, usually below 40 percent.

00:28:28.000 Would you like to see him come down to campaign with you?

00:28:30.000 Look, I know that I have my own campaign to win, and we will get lots of help from lots of people, but at the end of the day, I know that the way that I win this race is by us actually telling my story, telling why we need a real representative.

00:28:51.000 That's a no.

00:28:52.000 Joe Biden should stay far, far away.

00:28:53.000 So it's not dark Biden.

00:28:55.000 And it's not the cultural upswing on behalf of the Democrats.

00:28:58.000 Their cultural radicalism, as Roy Tishera points out, is not beneficial to their coalition.

00:29:03.000 And it's not Joe Biden's radical policies.

00:29:05.000 Bernie Sanders is still out there promoting this student debt relief.

00:29:09.000 And he's saying that he wants public colleges tuition free.

00:29:11.000 This sort of stuff ain't going to win Democrats Congress.

00:29:14.000 We'll get to what will in a second.

00:29:15.000 Here's Bernie Sanders continuing to push this stuff forward.

00:29:17.000 Democrats are always over their skis.

00:29:18.000 They can't just... It's amazing.

00:29:20.000 Democrats think that when people react to Republicans badly and so Democrats win, it's because Democrats have done something positive.

00:29:25.000 Republicans, as we'll see, tend to do the same thing.

00:29:27.000 Here's Bernie Sanders promoting student debt relief, which again, is not going to redound to Democrats' benefit politically.

00:29:33.000 In my view, the president did the right thing.

00:29:36.000 And we have got to be really thinking about higher education in general.

00:29:41.000 And in my view, at a time when hundreds of thousands of bright young people can't even afford to go to college, if we're going to be competitive in a global economy, we need to make public colleges and universities tuition-free.

00:29:57.000 Okay, so again, none of this is going to jog Democrats to victory, and neither is the economy, by the way.

00:30:03.000 According to the Wall Street Journal, we are now running into an actual recession.

00:30:08.000 They say, for retailers, it's a season of discontent.

00:30:10.000 From Walmart to Nordstrom, retailers have a glut of inventory and are discounting items to clear out space for holiday goods.

00:30:15.000 Many have already lowered profit expectations for the year and are working to cut costs, as consumers are pulling back spending in categories like apparel and home goods ahead of the key year-end shopping season.

00:30:24.000 Best by Warren investors last month, shoppers are buying fewer TVs and other electronics as they pay more for gas and groceries.

00:30:29.000 Macy's CEO Jeff Gennett said last week customers across income levels are pulling back on purchases.

00:30:34.000 Days later, Dollar General executives said people are trading down to less expensive versions of everyday items like powdered detergents and are putting more purchases on credit cards.

00:30:42.000 Companies are attempting to balance serving customers who are eager to spend despite rising prices while also being sensitive to shoppers who need or want to be more budget conscious.

00:30:49.000 As a result, retail executives and consultants predict the slowest sales growth in the period between November and January in years.

00:30:56.000 Eric Nordstrom, chief executive of Nordstrom said, quote, the uncertainty moving forward is significant.

00:31:00.000 There's cases to be made that things could get better pretty quickly.

00:31:02.000 And then there's credible cases to be made.

00:31:04.000 It's going to be very, very tough.

00:31:06.000 Recent economic data has muddied the picture of consumer health.

00:31:09.000 Gasoline prices are down from their June peak, but are higher than a year ago.

00:31:11.000 Inflation remains near four decade highs.

00:31:13.000 Unemployment, however, remains low when compared with historic averages and wages are rising, but they're not rising as fast as inflation has been rising.

00:31:20.000 Consumer spending in July increased at a slower pace than in the previous month, due in part to falling gas prices, according to government data.

00:31:25.000 Meanwhile, investors are ramping up their bets against the stock market as the summer rally fizzles, according to the Journal.

00:31:31.000 They are now looking at the possibility of a significant volatile trading half.

00:31:36.000 Net short positions against the S&P 500 futures have grown in the past couple of months, reaching levels not seen in two years.

00:31:43.000 That means traders are increasing their bets the index will fall or at least hedging against that risk.

00:31:47.000 Meanwhile, short interest has picked up in the fund tracking of popular technology shares, whose recent declines have signaled a strong summer rally is stalling out.

00:31:55.000 Many traders and portfolio managers are debating whether stocks climb from 2022 lows in mid-June marks the start of a new bull market or is just a dead cat bounce, a temporary bounce.

00:32:04.000 The S&P 500 has risen 11% since June 16th, but remains down 15% for the year.

00:32:10.000 Mark Hackett, Chief of Investment Research for Nationwide said, there's so much skepticism, we're still in the sell the rally mentality.

00:32:15.000 If everybody feels we're in a bear market rally, it will become almost a self-fulfilling prophecy.

00:32:19.000 So all of these sort of positive, happy talk that you're seeing from the media about the economy, we're going to escape the recession, it's not going to be bad.

00:32:26.000 The stock market doesn't believe that.

00:32:28.000 The retailers don't believe that.

00:32:31.000 That's not going to redound to Democrats' benefit either.

00:32:33.000 You know what else is not going to redound to their benefit is their answer to this.

00:32:36.000 This is, I think, the funniest article of the weekend.

00:32:38.000 This came courtesy of the Associated Press.

00:32:40.000 And this is the Democratic Party platform right here.

00:32:47.000 We're really bad at it, but the people doing it are gay, black, and Native American.

00:32:52.000 We're really crappy at this thing, but it's a diverse crowd of people who are crappy at this thing, which makes it not crappy.

00:32:59.000 Guys, you're doing a bang-up job.

00:33:00.000 According to the Associated Press, when Diane Swonk first attended the Federal Reserve's annual economic conference in Jackson Hole in the late 1990s, there was a happy hour for women who attended the event.

00:33:08.000 It barely filled a single table.

00:33:10.000 Now, the Women at Jackson Hole happy hour draws dozens of female economists and high-level decision-makers from the United States and overseas.

00:33:16.000 I'm just glad now there's a line for the ladies' room, said Swonk, a longtime Fed watcher who is chief economist for the accounting giant KPMG.

00:33:24.000 It's not just a Jackson Hole, but also in the Fed's boardroom, where its leadership has become its most diverse ever.

00:33:28.000 There are more female, Black, and openly gay officials contributing to the central bank's interest rate decisions than at any time in its 109-year history.

00:33:35.000 You're doing an amazing job, guys.

00:33:40.000 40-year highs in inflation.

00:33:42.000 You completely blew it.

00:33:44.000 But there are a lot of Black gay people here.

00:33:51.000 Over time, economists say, a wider range of voices will deepen the Fed's perspective as it weighs the consequences of raising or lowering rates.

00:33:58.000 It may help diversify a profession that historically hasn't been seen as particularly welcoming to women and minorities.

00:34:03.000 Man, if you are picking who gets to run the United States economy based on ethnic and sexual orientation calculations, I have very little faith that you're going to be good at this.

00:34:13.000 No one picks their doctor based on race.

00:34:15.000 No one picks their plumber based on race.

00:34:17.000 You should not pick the people who run the Federal Reserve based on whether they are men who like to have sex with men.

00:34:21.000 This seems like a very stupid way of doing economic policy.

00:34:25.000 Maybe the guy running the Federal Reserve, maybe he's best if he is gay, but it's not because he's gay.

00:34:29.000 What in the world?

00:34:31.000 Broadly, that's helpful, said William English, former senior economist at the Fed who teaches at Yale School of Management.

00:34:35.000 There's evidence that diverse groups make better decisions.

00:34:38.000 No, there's evidence that a group of people with diverse perspectives make better decisions.

00:34:43.000 There is no evidence that people in a group are better off because some are gay and some are straight, depending on what they are attempting to do.

00:34:50.000 What are you even talking about?

00:34:52.000 So, they're doing a crap job, but they're diverse.

00:34:55.000 Which again, is just, that's the important thing.

00:34:58.000 The Fed's influential seven-member board of governors based in Washington now includes two black economists.

00:35:02.000 Ooh, ah, they're the third and fourth black people on the board.

00:35:05.000 Governors get to vote on every Fed rate decision.

00:35:08.000 Also, Biden elevated Lail Brainard, a governor since 2014, to the board's powerful vice chair position.

00:35:14.000 Two of the presidents of the Fed's 12 regional banks are now black.

00:35:17.000 Five of the regional bank presidents are women.

00:35:20.000 Nella Richardson, chief economist at the payroll processing firm ADP, noted the education and experience of the new policymakers are similar to their predecessors.

00:35:28.000 With Cook, Jefferson, and Collins all PhD economists, Richardson suggested having more women in the Fed's leadership is particularly important now, because many of the problems the central bank faces are related to women's ability to join the workforce.

00:35:38.000 But what is a woman?

00:35:39.000 They can't even name that.

00:35:41.000 They're not enough trans people on the Federal Reserve.

00:35:43.000 I know that that was chief, like top of it.

00:35:45.000 So what should all of this should spell the Democrats would be doing badly, right?

00:35:48.000 The economy is not doing well.

00:35:50.000 Joe Biden is an unpopular president.

00:35:51.000 Their cultural radicalism is bad.

00:35:53.000 Democrats are capable of blowing elections.

00:35:55.000 But Republicans are doing an amazing job of blowing the 2022 election.

00:35:55.000 This we have seen.

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00:37:43.000 Well folks, after Matt Walsh became the greatest, best-selling, LGBTQ+, divided by sign, ampersand, hashtag, poop emoji, children's author for his book Johnny the Walrus, he discovered a giant stuffed walrus had been made for him as a gift.

00:37:56.000 But that gift was never given to him.

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00:38:34.000 So we've talked about the democratic myth-making here, that the reason that they're rising again is because of Joe Biden or student loans, and that if they just keep going with the cultural progressivism, this is not going to hurt them in any way, because again, The new norm in American politics is that emerging Democratic minority-majority coalition.

00:38:49.000 None of that's true.

00:38:51.000 What is happening right here is that Democrats are rising because, again, of abortion.

00:38:55.000 The abortion issue, obviously, in the polling data is having some impact on Democratic turnout.

00:39:00.000 But there's a combo that's happening right here.

00:39:02.000 It's not just that Democrats are turning out at a higher rate.

00:39:04.000 It's that since June, and really since August, Republicans are turning out at a lower rate.

00:39:09.000 Republicans are not showing up as much as they were in special elections prior to Dobbs and specifically prior to the Trump-Mar-a-Lago raid.

00:39:18.000 So what has happened with the Republicans is because Republicans bought into the same mythos as Democrats, they're making a lot of mistakes.

00:39:23.000 So the Democratic mistakes, based on that emerging Democratic minority majority theory, were we can be as culturally progressive as we want.

00:39:29.000 Wrong.

00:39:30.000 We can spend as much money as we could possibly want to spend.

00:39:32.000 Wrong.

00:39:33.000 We can put up a dead person as President of the United States who is unpopular.

00:39:36.000 Wrong.

00:39:37.000 All three of those are wrong.

00:39:38.000 But Democrats are gaining right now because Republicans, all they had to do, as always, in a polar environment, in a situation in which everyone is reactionary, all Republicans had to do was stand there and point at Democrats.

00:39:52.000 And when they were standing there and pointing at Democrats, they were doing great.

00:39:56.000 When Republicans, up until about June, July, August, until that point, they were just pointing at Joe Biden and saying, look, inflation.

00:40:02.000 Look, foreign policy catastrophe.

00:40:04.000 Look, cultural insanity.

00:40:06.000 That's what these people are.

00:40:08.000 Why would you vote for them?

00:40:09.000 Come vote for us.

00:40:10.000 No one knew the names of the Republican candidates.

00:40:12.000 Nobody cared who the Republican candidates were.

00:40:14.000 Because, again, usually an election is a referendum on the people in power.

00:40:19.000 But there's something else going on inside the Republican coalition, and that is because they bought into this mythos.

00:40:23.000 That the Democrats in a normal non-wave year are just going to win because of this magic coalition they built.

00:40:30.000 The only person who can defeat them is a person with magic in his fingertips.

00:40:33.000 The only person who can defeat them is...

00:40:36.000 He's the only one, right?

00:40:37.000 Trump, because Trump was the magic man, right?

00:40:39.000 In 2016, he defeated against all odds, against all the polls, Hillary Clinton.

00:40:44.000 And it was, it was a signal moment in American politics.

00:40:46.000 And if you remember that night, everyone was shocked, including Donald Trump.

00:40:49.000 And there were like two guys who said they weren't shocked and they were lying to you.

00:40:52.000 It was a shocking election result.

00:40:54.000 And you get very few of those in American politics, truly shocking election results.

00:40:57.000 It was so shocking that Democrats couldn't accept it, right?

00:41:00.000 Trump must have cheated.

00:41:01.000 He must have participated with the Russians.

00:41:02.000 Even the Democrats thought it was magic.

00:41:04.000 They thought it was some sort of evil black magic that Donald Trump had become president.

00:41:07.000 It was Vladimir Putin in the back room figuring out how Donald Trump became president, right?

00:41:12.000 It was some sort of extraneous, weird thing that Donald Trump had become president, when in reality, it was actually, in retrospect, predictable in the sense only that Hillary Clinton was a wildly unpopular candidate, had been for years, And that a lot of Republicans showed up to vote specifically because of the Democratic myth-making in 2012.

00:41:32.000 It turns out you can't just ignore the entire white majority in the United States and castigate them as racist and get away with it in the United States as a typical electoral rule.

00:41:41.000 So Trump wins in 2016.

00:41:43.000 And so the myth on the right is, again, in a normal election, Democrats win.

00:41:47.000 You need magic band here in order to win.

00:41:49.000 What this means is that all of Republican politics has now circulated around Trump.

00:41:54.000 And so for a lot of Republicans, the idea was that now that things were kind of going back to normal, right?

00:42:00.000 At the beginning of the year, things were kind of going back to normal.

00:42:02.000 Trump was no longer president of the United States.

00:42:03.000 He hadn't been president for a year.

00:42:05.000 Whatever he was doing over on Truth Social, fulminating over stuff, that was his business.

00:42:09.000 The Republican base still liked Trump.

00:42:11.000 They weren't anti-Trump.

00:42:12.000 But it was that there was this growing idea when you looked at the polls that Democrats had overshot the mark.

00:42:17.000 There's a certain awakening that was occurring in the Republican brain in which they were saying, oh, Democrats actually are unpopular.

00:42:23.000 It turns out it's not about Trump.

00:42:24.000 They're just bad at this.

00:42:25.000 And all we have to do is stand here.

00:42:26.000 And then came the Trump-Mar-a-Lago raid.

00:42:28.000 I think the Trump-Mar-a-Lago raid has a lot to do with the dynamic in politics that you're seeing right now, because for Republicans, The idea had become, okay, we'll get ready for 2024.

00:42:36.000 Maybe, you know, maybe it'll be Trump, maybe it'll be somebody else.

00:42:39.000 But the main narrative is not going to be Trump as the magical savior of all that is good in the United States versus this emerging Democratic majority.

00:42:47.000 It's going to be, look, the underlying dynamics have changed.

00:42:50.000 Even people who are very pro-Trump were saying, more Hispanics are voting Republican now.

00:42:54.000 The actual math has changed.

00:42:55.000 The entire theory of the case Democrats were purveying since 2012 is wrong.

00:42:59.000 It's not true.

00:43:01.000 And then came the Mar-a-Lago raid.

00:43:02.000 And when the Mar-a-Lago raid happened, Everything sort of snapped back into place.

00:43:06.000 Because if there's one thing that Democrats can do to drive Republicans batty, it is that anybody Democrats attack, Republicans immediately heroize.

00:43:15.000 They immediately valorize.

00:43:16.000 They immediately turn into the center of the narrative.

00:43:18.000 If Democrats decide that Marjorie Taylor Greene is the worst human being on planet Earth, Republicans will not immediately respond by saying, well, you know, she says some stuff I don't like, she says some stuff I do like, and they're really overshooting the matter.

00:43:29.000 That's not how Republicans respond.

00:43:30.000 They immediately respond by going, she is the greatest person I have ever seen in my life.

00:43:33.000 And so when Trump was raided, two things can be true at once.

00:43:36.000 One, it looks extraordinarily political.

00:43:38.000 I've been saying this since the day the raid happened.

00:43:41.000 And two, it can refocus everybody on the thing that nobody focuses on in the election normally.

00:43:48.000 Donald Trump.

00:43:50.000 It turns out people vote against things.

00:43:52.000 Democrats right now are voting against Trump.

00:43:54.000 They're voting against the Republicans.

00:43:56.000 They're voting against pro-life laws.

00:43:59.000 They have a lot of things that they can vote against come the midterm elections.

00:44:02.000 Republicans were getting set to vote against Joe Biden, and that was a big thing.

00:44:04.000 They were voting against Joe Biden, and they were voting against the Democrats.

00:44:07.000 They were voting against all the things we talked about before.

00:44:10.000 You know what you can't vote against, really?

00:44:11.000 The FBI.

00:44:12.000 You know what you can't really vote against?

00:44:15.000 The quote-unquote deep state, in the sense that Donald Trump being targeted, two things can be true at once.

00:44:20.000 One, it can be a selective prosecution, politically motivated, pretty obviously before an election.

00:44:26.000 And two, the rationale for Donald Trump's activity that's leading to the investigation is almost inexplicable.

00:44:34.000 Like I haven't the one thing I've never I haven't heard from Team Trump.

00:44:37.000 And again, this does not justify what the FBI is doing to him.

00:44:39.000 It doesn't explain why the DOJ signed off on a raid.

00:44:41.000 It doesn't explain what the importance of what they are doing is beyond sort of the normal.

00:44:48.000 We want to enforce the law, but only selectively speaking, it doesn't explain any of that.

00:44:52.000 But what no one can understand is what Trump is doing.

00:44:56.000 So if you're a Republican and before you were motivated to get out and vote against the Democrats right now, you're sort of Mad about other things.

00:45:04.000 And you can see this in the polling data.

00:45:05.000 What you can see in the polling data is that Republicans are less likely to go to the polls today because, again, they are invested in the magic man narrative.

00:45:11.000 And what this means is that they are now centralizing around Trump.

00:45:14.000 Trump, as a part of the 2022 election, is not going to help Republicans.

00:45:18.000 It's going to hurt Republicans.

00:45:19.000 The center of the election has to be a referendum on Joe Biden, on the Democrats, not on the treatment of Donald Trump.

00:45:25.000 When Trump is at the center of the headlines, it is not good for Republicans.

00:45:28.000 That is the running theme of every poll that we are seeing right now.

00:45:32.000 If the election is about abortion and Donald Trump, Republicans are in serious trouble come 2022.

00:45:36.000 If the election is about Joe Biden and his handling of the economy and the crazy Democratic cultural moves that they are making, then the Democrats will lose.

00:45:44.000 So this Trump raid actually has rejiggered the election.

00:45:48.000 And again, cast Republicans back into the role of let's focus on Trump.

00:45:51.000 And that is a large scale electoral mistake.

00:45:54.000 So the sort of detailed following that Republicans are doing and conservatives are doing of the Trump-Mar-a-Lago raid is distracting them and taking their eye off the ball of what they're actually voting against.

00:46:05.000 It's a bank shot, in other words.

00:46:06.000 None of this, I keep saying it over and over, so I will say it one more time.

00:46:10.000 None of this justifies the FBI raid against Trump.

00:46:12.000 But politically speaking, if we are focused on the FBI raid against Trump, as opposed to focusing on what Democrats are doing on a daily basis to wreck the economy, as opposed to focusing on the fact that Joe Biden just unilaterally declared he's going to spend $500 billion that do not exist bailing out all of his buddies.

00:46:32.000 If you do that, you're not going to do well in the election.

00:46:35.000 And because Trump still is able to damage his political opponents inside the Republican Party more than his opponents outside the Republican Party, Trump cannot do damage to Democrats.

00:46:43.000 He can only do damage to Republicans at this point.

00:46:45.000 This is what you've seen in a series of primaries where he has endorsed a candidate who goes on to win, and then the candidate runs very weak against the Democrat.

00:46:53.000 Donald Trump's handpicked candidates are the ones that are doing the worst in terms of the polling data right now in the 2022 senatorial election.

00:46:59.000 The more Trump is at the center, the more he is the locus of the Republican solar system, the worse things are for them, electorally speaking.

00:47:07.000 But again, when you're invested in the idea that Trump was the magic, that he was the wizard in 2016, and that he will always be a wizard, what this leads to is faith in a thing that, electorally speaking, is not true.

00:47:19.000 Hey, so here's what's happening right now.

00:47:21.000 Everyone is focusing in on Trump Mar-a-Lago.

00:47:23.000 And so there is a theory this is going to get Republicans very fired up for the election.

00:47:27.000 There's only one problem.

00:47:29.000 When people go after Trump for being president of the United States, what Republicans think is they're going after him because they want to stop him from doing the things that are good for the country.

00:47:38.000 When people go after Trump for randomly having documents in his home that he maybe shouldn't have there, People are like, okay, I see what they're doing.

00:47:47.000 They're trying to get him out in 2024.

00:47:50.000 But why did he have documents in his home?

00:47:53.000 What is the thing that he was trying to do?

00:47:58.000 This is the answer that nobody can give on sort of the Trump side of the aisle.

00:48:02.000 What was he doing here?

00:48:03.000 Sure, the FBI better have damned good justification for doing what they were doing.

00:48:08.000 But what exactly was Donald Trump doing with a bunch of documents in his house, even if it was just stupidity or sloppiness?

00:48:14.000 Like, why?

00:48:15.000 Is this a controversy that needs to be at the center of American politics right now?

00:48:18.000 It's a very confusing thing.

00:48:19.000 Was he doing something super important and the Democrats stopped him?

00:48:22.000 Or are they using it as an excuse to go after him, what was going on?

00:48:25.000 But also, like, why was he doing that?

00:48:27.000 Like, what?

00:48:29.000 So right now, The latest in the Trump FBI raid stuff is that, according to Politico, a federal judge said Saturday she's inclined to grant Donald Trump's request to bring in an outsider to oversee the review of more than two dozen boxes of materials the FBI seized from the former president's Florida estate earlier this month.

00:48:44.000 In her brief order, which she emphasized was not a final decision, U.S.

00:48:47.000 District Court Judge Eileen Cannon also directed the DOJ to produce by Tuesday a more detailed list of items seized from Trump's residence on August 8th, as well as the status of the government's ongoing review of those materials, which includes the use of a filter team to screen for attorney-client privileged records.

00:49:00.000 The FBI executed, of course, the search warrant on Mar-a-Lago aimed at recovering what the magistrate judge said were highly classified documents in Trump's possession.

00:49:07.000 Now, Cannon was nominated by Trump, confirmed by the Senate.

00:49:10.000 She said she plans to hold a hearing Thursday in West Palm Beach on the former president's request for a special master.

00:49:14.000 It is likely that he will receive the special master.

00:49:17.000 But this is not actually clearing up what exactly Trump was.

00:49:22.000 Because what we now know is that Trump's own lawyers had encouraged him to turn over documents to the DOJ and to the National Archives early in this year.

00:49:32.000 And Trump wouldn't do it.

00:49:33.000 He said, no, these are my documents I'm keeping.

00:49:34.000 So people on the right side of the aisle can defend Trump.

00:49:37.000 But they really don't know what he was doing.

00:49:39.000 So this is leaving them in sort of a weird position of making the top item on their election agenda, Donald Trump's personal behavior, which is, which is strange.

00:49:52.000 It's odd and it's not likely to lead to electoral victory.

00:49:55.000 Certainly not in an environment where you could be running against the Democrats as opposed to against the FBI or against the Trump FBI raid.

00:50:02.000 Or all the rest of this.

00:50:04.000 I mean, I'll just give you an example.

00:50:06.000 So George Stephanopoulos, he was questioning Senator Roy Blunt from Missouri on Trump's handling of the documents.

00:50:13.000 And Blunt kept saying the FBI shouldn't raid his house, which is true.

00:50:17.000 And Stephanopoulos just kept saying, so why do you have the documents?

00:50:20.000 Blunt doesn't know.

00:50:21.000 I mean, hell, Trump might not even know.

00:50:23.000 But if that's the center of the election, that's not going to... I mean, again, I'm just reading the polling data, folks.

00:50:29.000 I know that a lot of Republicans would like to believe that if Trump remains the center of American politics, it's good for the Republicans.

00:50:34.000 I just see no evidence of that from the polling data at this point.

00:50:37.000 I see no evidence that that was the case in the Senate in 2020.

00:50:41.000 I see no evidence that that is the case right now in the Senate.

00:50:44.000 I see no evidence that's the case in the House.

00:50:46.000 Here's George Stephanopoulos going after Roy Blunt because of Trump.

00:50:49.000 Whether or not these documents were classified, was it right for the president to take these government documents, which he's supposed to turn over to the National Archives, down to Mar-a-Lago?

00:50:59.000 You should be very careful with classified documents.

00:51:01.000 I've had access to documents like that for a long time.

00:51:05.000 I'm incredibly careful.

00:51:06.000 I was wondering as I was listening to that discussion if the same things were said when Secretary Clinton had documents, when Director Comey had documents.

00:51:16.000 They had them on the Internet, which is much more dangerous than having them in a box somewhere, but everybody needs to be more careful.

00:51:23.000 Well, you're still not, you're not answering my question.

00:51:24.000 You were critical of Senator Clinton, who actually turned over what she had, turned over all her devices.

00:51:29.000 What we have here is a situation where the President did not turn over these documents.

00:51:34.000 Can you say whether that was right or wrong?

00:51:36.000 Do you believe it was right for the President to take those documents to Mar-a-Lago?

00:51:40.000 He should have turned the documents over and apparently had turned a number of documents over.

00:51:46.000 Again, it's a sticky situation for Republicans.

00:51:50.000 You can believe all these things at once.

00:51:52.000 FBI shouldn't have raided him.

00:51:53.000 Hillary Clinton got away with it.

00:51:54.000 Donald Trump should have turned over the documents.

00:51:56.000 All these things you could actually believe.

00:51:58.000 And by the way, again, when it comes to the polling data, which is the thing that if you're a conservative, you should care about, you should care about who controls Congress.

00:52:03.000 Considering the Democrats are nosediving this country directly into the ground, you should mostly be concerned about whether you guys are going to win an election.

00:52:10.000 Look at the polling data.

00:52:11.000 New poll out from CBS News.

00:52:13.000 It says that the FBI search hasn't directly changed many votes because of the sharp partisan splits over it.

00:52:18.000 It could be part of a larger issue holding back Republicans because Trump is a big positive for his own partisans, but they were voting Republican anyway.

00:52:25.000 But Trump is a net negative for independents.

00:52:27.000 Independents would prefer that Republicans criticize Trump rather than supporting him in Mar-a-Lago.

00:52:32.000 Half of independent voters named Trump as a factor in their vote.

00:52:35.000 Four to one, they are voting to oppose him.

00:52:38.000 Far worse than Biden's support-oppose ratio.

00:52:40.000 Four to one.

00:52:41.000 So for independents, which is half of them, who say that Trump is a factor in their decision-making, four to one, they say that they're going to oppose Trump.

00:52:49.000 Is that good for Republicans anywhere in here?

00:52:51.000 This election should be about Joe Biden and nothing but Joe Biden and entirely Joe Biden.

00:52:55.000 And instead, you haven't heard Biden's name in the past six weeks since the Trump-Mar-a-Lago raid, except for the media praising him to the skies for the stuff that he's actually doing policy-wise.

00:53:04.000 And meanwhile, Republicans are caught up in, how do we show that we think that the FBI raid is really bad?

00:53:09.000 What can we say to get Trump off our backs?

00:53:10.000 What can we do here?

00:53:12.000 You can rip the Trump-FBI raid.

00:53:14.000 You can, and you should.

00:53:16.000 But you can still point out that if you guys are distracted on the Trump FBI raid, that is going to not be a winning issue for you.

00:53:24.000 How many elections can Republicans blow on the basis of we need to focus in on Trump rather than focusing in on the other issues?

00:53:32.000 This happened, by the way, in 2018 as well.

00:53:34.000 If you recall, in 2018, Republicans were doing shockingly well on the generic congressional ballot.

00:53:39.000 They were doing really, really well on the congressional, like people couldn't explain it.

00:53:44.000 It was right after there was a big surge.

00:53:46.000 Democrats were doing well.

00:53:47.000 And then the Kavanaugh hearings happened.

00:53:48.000 And suddenly the country focused in on the injustice done to Brett Kavanaugh and what the Democrats were doing.

00:53:52.000 And you saw an actual surge in the polls for Republicans.

00:53:55.000 And Donald Trump stepped in in 2018.

00:53:57.000 And he said, we're going to make this thing about my stance on the border and illegal immigration.

00:54:00.000 And then Republicans, that shall act.

00:54:02.000 The last three weeks of the election was all about Trump.

00:54:05.000 They did really poorly.

00:54:06.000 2020, Donald Trump intervened directly in the Georgia senatorial elections and Georgia loses two Senate seats and make the difference between Joe Biden spending $7 trillion and not spending $7 trillion.

00:54:17.000 And now we are looking at this becoming the center of the election again.

00:54:22.000 And that's just, I'm sorry, but that is just a mistake by the Republicans.

00:54:26.000 If Republicans buy into the mythology that they can't win without Donald Trump in any way, shape, or form, and thus every time Trump is mentioned, anytime they go after him, that has to become the center of American politics because without him, everything falls apart.

00:54:37.000 That's not true.

00:54:39.000 In fact, the reverse is true.

00:54:41.000 If Republicans decide that this is the way they want to run, and this is not saying Trump shouldn't be the nominee in 2024.

00:54:47.000 It's not saying you shouldn't like Trump.

00:54:48.000 It's not saying you shouldn't support Trump.

00:54:49.000 It's not saying that you shouldn't fight the FBI's raid on Trump.

00:54:52.000 It's not saying you can't think that Joe Biden and Merrick Garland are doing something eminently political and going after Trump.

00:54:56.000 But if every word that comes out of your mouth as a Republican candidate and as a party is Donald Trump, do you think it's going to benefit the Republicans or do you think it's going to benefit the Democrats?

00:55:04.000 This is why a lot of people are very sanguine on the Republican side of the aisle about 2024.

00:55:06.000 Like, ah, if Trump gets nominated and it's Trump versus Biden again in 2024, Trump's going to win.

00:55:12.000 I don't see the evidence that that is particularly the case.

00:55:15.000 Can you show me evidence that that is the case?

00:55:17.000 Because here's the thing that I care about.

00:55:18.000 Stopping the Democrats.

00:55:20.000 This is the thing that you should care about also as a conservative.

00:55:24.000 The key statistic here is that in 2016, when Donald Trump ran for president, independents, who decided on the last day who they were voting for, split 2 to 1 in favor of Donald Trump.

00:55:32.000 By 2020, independents, who were deciding on the last day, split 2 to 1 in favor of Joe Biden.

00:55:38.000 So do you want that on the tip of your toes?

00:55:40.000 Again, Democrats can blow this because of all their underlying issues.

00:55:42.000 On a systemic level, what Roy Tishera says is correct.

00:55:45.000 On a systemic level, when Roy Tishera says, the underlying systemic problems for the Democratic Party are serious and growing worse.

00:55:52.000 And the big problem for the Republicans is that they are centralizing around a person who by all available statistics is not particularly popular in the United States except with the base.

00:56:00.000 That's correct.

00:56:02.000 So perhaps there ought to be some care taken with the issues that Republicans make front and center.

00:56:08.000 So if you're a Republican candidate, if you are the Republican Party, more broadly speaking, there's only one name that should be on your lips from now until November.

00:56:17.000 Joe Biden.

00:56:17.000 That is the only name that should be on your lips.

00:56:20.000 Doesn't mean if you're asked about Trump, you can't say, I don't think the FBI raid is justified.

00:56:23.000 It should be about Joe Biden and Joe Biden alone, because the Democratic Party They are making some awfully brutal mistakes, and if you don't take advantage of them, your mistake is even larger.

00:56:34.000 You can see this, by the way, in Florida.

00:56:36.000 So Florida, the Republican Party in Florida is doing really, really well.

00:56:40.000 So the same day that there was this election over in New York, in which Republicans underperformed, there was one state where Republicans did not underperform.

00:56:48.000 That state was Florida.

00:56:48.000 If you're looking at the special elections, so there was an election day in Florida last week.

00:56:53.000 During that election day, Charlie Crist won the nomination to go up against Ron DeSantis for governor.

00:56:57.000 And there was a lot of talk on the Democrats.

00:56:59.000 Look at how many people showed up to vote for Charlie Crist.

00:57:01.000 Wow!

00:57:01.000 It was like 1.5 million people showed up in the Democratic primaries.

00:57:04.000 And that was a pretty hotly contested Democratic primary between Nikki Freed, who's a crazy person, and Charlie Crist, who has literally been a member of every political party on the planet.

00:57:13.000 He's, I think, been a member of the BAF party at this point.

00:57:15.000 Charlie Crist.

00:57:17.000 He was a Republican, then he was an Independent, now he's a Democrat, he was a member of the Green Party, he's been a member of the Reform Party.

00:57:21.000 Like, I don't know what Charlie Crist... That guy plays all sides of the field.

00:57:25.000 Anyway, Charlie Crist wins against Nikki Fried.

00:57:28.000 1.5 million Democrats show up to vote.

00:57:30.000 There is no contested election on the Republican side of the aisle.

00:57:33.000 None.

00:57:34.000 On a statewide level.

00:57:35.000 1.6 million Republicans show up to vote.

00:57:38.000 Voter turnout in Florida for the Republicans was higher without a contested election on the ballot than it was for Democrats with a contested election on the ballot.

00:57:45.000 Meanwhile, Republicans swept through the local school boards in Florida.

00:57:49.000 They picked up a bevy of local school boards, including in heavily blue areas.

00:57:54.000 So what exactly is the Republican Party in Florida doing that the Republican Party elsewhere is not doing?

00:57:59.000 Well, the thing that the Republican Party in Florida is doing is focusing in on Florida governance.

00:58:03.000 Governor DeSantis is doing a very good job of focusing in on the educational predations of the left, on the wokeness of the left, on the attempt to weaponize corporations against the people of Florida.

00:58:14.000 He's focusing in on his citizens, on local issues, on the things that people actually care about.

00:58:18.000 And so Republicans in Florida are jazzed, not by the Trump FBI raid.

00:58:22.000 They're jazzed because of all the other things.

00:58:25.000 That is a very important thing.

00:58:26.000 And that means that DeSantis is in excellent position, for example, to run against Charlie Crist.

00:58:31.000 The polls show that he's up 8 to 10 points against Charlie Crist.

00:58:34.000 And it also means that he can point out Charlie Crist's vulnerabilities.

00:58:37.000 So Charlie Crist just picked for his running mate, the head of United Teachers of Dade, which is just the stupidest thing you can do.

00:58:46.000 Because what Ron DeSantis has done is run directly against the teachers' unions in the state of Florida.

00:58:50.000 He has said the teachers' unions in the state of Florida tried to keep the schools closed.

00:58:53.000 This is true.

00:58:53.000 They tried to mask up the kids.

00:58:54.000 This is true.

00:58:56.000 That they have essentially decided to run directly against the interests of their own students.

00:59:00.000 And Charlie Crist, meanwhile, is picking Carla Hernandez-Matz, the president of Miami's United Teachers of Dade, as his running mate.

00:59:08.000 She's also vice president of the American Federation of Teachers, so she works for Randy Weingarten.

00:59:12.000 She opposed reopening Florida's public schools in the middle of the pandemic.

00:59:16.000 In September of 2020, according to the Wall Street Journal, the UTD organized a caravan, including a hearse, to protest reopening schools outside the Miami-Dade County School Board headquarters.

00:59:24.000 Hernandez-Matz insisted lives are going to be lost if Miami schools reopened.

00:59:29.000 Florida schools did reopen, but in 2021, the AFT successfully lobbied the CDC to tighten school reopening guidelines, which kept schools elsewhere closed longer.

00:59:38.000 So Chris is running the Terry McAuliffe playbook, and he's likely to lose.

00:59:41.000 Again, look to the elections that Republicans have done really well in over the course of the last couple of years.

00:59:46.000 Loudoun County, Virginia, school boards, local educational issues, those made the Republican governor of Virginia a Republican governor of Virginia.

00:59:54.000 In New Jersey, The governor of New Jersey, Phil Murphy, nearly lost to a no-name Republican.

01:00:02.000 I mean, these were 13, 14-point swings.

01:00:03.000 So what changed?

01:00:04.000 What changed?

01:00:05.000 Only a few things.

01:00:07.000 Dobbs, which of course is going to jazz up the Democratic base, and the loss of momentum for the Republicans.

01:00:13.000 Because the Republicans have decided to focus their efforts elsewhere.

01:00:16.000 But in the states where they're not focusing their efforts elsewhere, they continue to do really, really well.

01:00:20.000 And that is true in places like Florida.

01:00:22.000 Alrighty guys, the rest of the show is continuing right now.

01:00:25.000 You're not going to want to miss it.

01:00:26.000 We're going to be getting into the fact that the Republicans just received like $1.6 billion donation and Democrats are losing their minds about it.

01:00:33.000 Plus, Sidney Sweeney is under attack because she has friends who apparently wear red hats.

The Ben Shapiro Show - August 29, 2022

Why Are Republicans Losing 2022 Election Momentum? | Ep. 1563

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