The Ben Shapiro Show - June 19, 2026


Why Did We Think Iran Would Keep Their Word?


Episode Stats


Length

21 minutes

Words per minute

196.78

Word count

4,316

Sentence count

295

Harmful content

Toxicity

15

sentences flagged

Hate speech

58

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

Trump signs a deal with Iran. Iran pulls out of negotiations with the United States. U.S. Vice President Vance refuses to return to Switzerland to continue the talks. Israel strikes Hezbollah in Lebanon and Iran refuses to resume negotiations.

Transcript

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Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
00:00:00.000 You can tell a deal is going well when it's in tenuous shape within two days.
00:00:04.000 President Trump signed an MOU, a vague MOU with Iran on Wednesday.
00:00:08.000 That same day, Hezbollah, an Iranian backed terror group, attacked Israel and Israeli citizens and Israeli soldiers many, many times.
00:00:14.000 Same thing on Thursday.
00:00:15.000 And then on Thursday, the Iranians reportedly pulled out of negotiations in Switzerland on the next steps. 0.99
00:00:21.000 All of which was predictable because Iran is run by lying terrorist thugs. 0.98
00:00:25.000 We'll get into all the latest in the non deal Iran deal. 0.98
00:00:28.000 This is the Ben Shapiro Show.
00:00:38.000 All righty, so here's the latest. 0.84
00:00:39.000 On Wednesday, as you recall, the President of the United States was in Versailles signing a memorandum of understanding with the Islamic Republic of Iran, a terror state. 0.52
00:00:48.000 That same exact day, Iran backed Lebanese terror group Hezbollah, which is responsible, by the way, for the murder of literally hundreds of American citizens, launched 63 rockets at Israeli troops, plus two explosive drones, plus one missile.
00:01:01.000 On Thursday, the next day, five terrorists from Hezbollah approached the Israeli forward defense line in Lebanon.
00:01:07.000 Also, Hezbollah launched five explosive drones.
00:01:09.000 That same day, Four Israeli troops were incinerated by one of those explosive drones.
00:01:14.000 So Israel then retaliated by striking a bunch of targets in southern Lebanon, because that's what happens when terrorists attack you, whether you're American or Israeli or anyone. 0.88
00:01:24.000 You retaliate and you kill them and you kill the people who are behind them. 0.89
00:01:28.000 That is obviously what the United States would do if Mexico fired at American troops. 1.00
00:01:32.000 Hell, the president said that that's what we would do if Iran killed American troops in the Middle East.
00:01:37.000 Here was the president just a couple of weeks ago.
00:01:39.000 Is that your red line for ending the ceasefire?
00:01:43.000 If they killed U.S. troops.
00:01:46.000 What does that mean? 0.62
00:01:47.000 That you would restart the war with Iran if they killed U.S. troops. 1.00
00:01:50.000 Well, it would be a good reason. 1.00
00:01:52.000 I'll be honest with you. 0.92
00:01:53.000 If they killed U.S. troops, I think I would do that very quickly.
00:01:56.000 Okay, so, again, that's the way it works.
00:02:01.000 Well, based on Israel defending itself against, again, a terror group, Hezbollah, Iran then said they would not show up to Switzerland to negotiate with Vice President Vance.
00:02:09.000 On Friday, U.S. Iran talks were officially postponed.
00:02:12.000 The U.S. blamed logistics issues, which I mean, come on, this is not about flight arrangements.
00:02:17.000 Media reporting that Iran had delayed thanks to the Israeli action against Hezbollah in Lebanon.
00:02:22.000 According to CNN, quote, Vice President Vance is no longer traveling to Switzerland for U.S. Iran negotiations today, with talks postponed.
00:02:29.000 Iran has asked for guarantees that hostilities in Lebanon will end before it resumes the talks, a diplomat told CNN.
00:02:35.000 The Iranians have asked for guarantees that hostilities in Lebanon will end, as outlined in the signed agreement, the diplomat said, adding that mediators are currently working to resolve the issue.
00:02:43.000 The source described the planned talks as now temporarily postponed following Israeli strikes in Lebanon.
00:02:49.000 Without saying when meteors expected some sort of resumption.
00:02:52.000 So, again, the goal here was that Iran wanted the U.S. to tie Israel's hands as part of the deal.
00:02:58.000 And Israel, as any nation would, declined to have its hands tied against terrorism because, again, no country worth its salt in its right mind would stop killing terrorists targeting its homeland and its soldiers.
00:03:08.000 Not America, not Israel, not anyone.
00:03:11.000 So, now it's being reported that the U.S. has brokered some sort of ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel. 0.53
00:03:17.000 Maybe the talks will be put back on.
00:03:19.000 Maybe they won't.
00:03:21.000 The hokey pokey is happening, but herein lies the point.
00:03:24.000 This deal was never a deal.
00:03:26.000 It was always from the very beginning vaporware.
00:03:29.000 See, here's the thing about deals.
00:03:31.000 When you make a durable deal, it always involves two elements.
00:03:33.000 First, a partner on the other side who's credible in their commitments, right?
00:03:37.000 This has to be true for any contract.
00:03:39.000 If you sign a contract with anyone, the person on the other side is bound by a wide variety of provisions in any agreement to keep to its commitments.
00:03:47.000 There has to be an incentive structure.
00:03:49.000 And of course, you have to be able to trust the person on the other side of the table will actually keep their commitments.
00:03:54.000 Second, there has to be a meeting of the minds.
00:03:57.000 That is an agreement on the terms.
00:03:58.000 That is basic contract law.
00:03:59.000 If you and I sign a contract that I am going to buy a house at an agreed upon price, and I think the agreed upon price is $10, and you think the agreed upon price is $10 million, we do not have an agreement on terms.
00:04:12.000 We do not have a meeting of the minds.
00:04:14.000 We do not have a deal or a contract.
00:04:15.000 Again, both of those things have to be present in order for a deal to be durable.
00:04:19.000 One, a credible partner on the other side of the table who will keep their commitments, and two, a meeting of the minds, actual agreement on the terms of the contract.
00:04:28.000 This deal has neither of those elements, and it never did have either of those elements. 0.92
00:04:33.000 Iran, lest we forget, is run by terrorist jihadists. 0.59
00:04:37.000 And also, there was no agreement on the actual terms. 0.53
00:04:42.000 Now, again, there's a reason why President Trump signed.
00:04:44.000 He signed very obviously to open the Strait of Hormuz.
00:04:47.000 That was the reason.
00:04:48.000 The oil prices would dive, the economy would go up. 1.00
00:04:51.000 Now, the reality I said before if we wanted to, quote unquote, open the Strait and leave it in the hands of the Iranians, we could have just walked away. 1.00
00:04:58.000 We didn't have to sign a damn thing. 0.99
00:05:00.000 We could have made no commitments, kept the sanctions on, and just walked away. 0.91
00:05:03.000 And then Iran would toll the straits or whatever. 0.82
00:05:05.000 But instead, we are pretending that the strait is open. 0.72
00:05:09.000 And it's not. 1.00
00:05:10.000 It is run by the Iranians. 1.00
00:05:12.000 We are keeping our commitments. 1.00
00:05:13.000 We stopped the blockade.
00:05:15.000 CENTCOM announced yesterday that U.S. forces lifted the blockade on all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports and coastal areas in accordance with the president's direction. 0.61
00:05:25.000 But the Iranians, well, it turns out that they are just openly saying that they control the strait now.
00:05:31.000 It is not open, it is not equally accessible by all parties. 0.98
00:05:37.000 They are openly saying that they control the strait in perpetuity.
00:05:40.000 Today, the Persian Gulf Authority, which is Iran, said this With regard to the signing of the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding and the issuance of directives by the competent authorities, applicants wishing to transit the Strait of Hormuz are hereby informed that within the timeframe specified in the Memorandum of Understanding, the transit of vessels that submit their transit requests to the Persian Gulf Waterway Management in compliance with the following points will be processed expeditiously.
00:06:04.000 So, in other words, you have to submit your papers to the Iranians, and then maybe they will approve them.
00:06:09.000 During the 60 day period, say the Iranians, no fees will be levied on vessels and the tariffs for security, safety, and environmental service, as well as the relevant Iranian insurance shall be borne entirely by the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
00:06:20.000 Now left unmentioned is that beyond the 60 days, that's not true.
00:06:24.000 And here's the deal.
00:06:24.000 They can close it now.
00:06:25.000 They can close it at any time.
00:06:26.000 I mean, hell, the IRGC Navy literally put out a broadcast today in the strait saying that they were going to shut down the strait.
00:06:36.000 Then later they backed off of it.
00:06:38.000 They said they weren't going to do it.
00:06:39.000 But here is what they broadcast.
00:06:40.000 This is a translation quote.
00:06:41.000 Since Israel's withdrawal from Lebanon and the complete lifting of the naval blockade and the withdrawal of American terrorist forces from the Persian Gulf and the region are among the main conditions of the agreement between Iran and the United States, the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed until these two conditions are met.
00:06:55.000 All ships are ordered not to approach the Strait of Hormuz for their own safety and health.
00:06:59.000 Any vessel that defies this order will be targeted. 0.79
00:07:02.000 So, in other words, Iran still controls the Strait.
00:07:05.000 And again, this is a weird move.
00:07:07.000 It is a weird move because let's just say that Iran keeps its commitment for the next 60 days not to toll the Straits. 0.59
00:07:13.000 And they keep it open. 0.65
00:07:15.000 Why in the world would you essentially give them an economic nuclear weapon in perpetuity?
00:07:22.000 Let's say that we get one.
00:07:23.000 I know the president is trying to lower the gas prices until after the election.
00:07:26.000 I get it. 0.92
00:07:28.000 However, if the Iranians don't like President Trump, which they don't, and if the Iranians would like the Democrats to win, which presumably they would, why would they not wait until one week before the election and just close the straight again? 0.89
00:07:39.000 I mean, they could just do that at literally any time. 0.91
00:07:45.000 So, again, I understand why the president signed.
00:07:47.000 I understand the incentive structure here.
00:07:50.000 But I think what's more important here is why Iran signed.
00:07:53.000 In just one second, we'll get into the question of why Iran signed this deal.
00:07:57.000 There's one pretty good, smart reason why they did.
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00:10:22.000 Why did Iran sign?
00:10:24.000 Well, I mean, they got a few things, aside from the fact that the MOU actually guarantees them some obvious immediate benefits, including that America will stop attacking them and that we will remove the blockade and allow them to ship their oil sanctions free.
00:10:35.000 There's something bigger that's going on here.
00:10:37.000 The goal of the Iranian government was to get America to sign on the dotted line.
00:10:41.000 That is a major win for them. 0.94
00:10:43.000 Why?
00:10:43.000 Well, because they are master negotiators and they know one thing.
00:10:47.000 Everyone who signs an international deal, at least in democracies, has what's called sunk cost fallacy.
00:10:53.000 Sunk cost fallacy is something that afflicts all human beings and you have to fight your way through it.
00:10:59.000 Sunk cost fallacy is the idea.
00:11:00.000 Let's say you buy a fixer of a house and you dump $100,000 into fixing the house and you know it's going to cost you another $300,000 and that it's a money loser.
00:11:09.000 You're only going to be able to sell the house for $200,000.
00:11:12.000 Many people will go ahead and continue to sink the money into the house because they'll say, Hey, I already spent a hundred.
00:11:18.000 I may as well spend 300 more to get to the completion of the project.
00:11:21.000 That's sunk cost fallacy that you've already put yourself out there for a thing.
00:11:24.000 So you may as well quote unquote go all the way.
00:11:27.000 In other words, once you say and feel that you like a thing, people feel a necessity to keep defending the thing.
00:11:33.000 So this means that Iran wanted to get America's name on the paper in the belief that America will keep defending the crappy deal no matter what.
00:11:43.000 Which again would mean inherently, as we said before, defending the terms of the deal and also Iran as a credible negotiating partner.
00:11:53.000 Now, this is the biggest problem. 0.95
00:11:54.000 Iran is run by thug terrorists who have murdered thousands of Americans and, in the last few months alone, tens of thousands of Iranians. 1.00
00:12:01.000 They lie like they breathe, obviously. 1.00
00:12:03.000 They have violated every deal they have ever signed.
00:12:06.000 They are not trustworthy.
00:12:07.000 They are terror supporters.
00:12:08.000 But now, we obviously have a stake in pretending that they are credible.
00:12:13.000 Now, here's the thing they are openly dunking on us, they know this.
00:12:16.000 We're pretending that they're reasonable and rational partners on the other side of the table, and they're just dunking on us. 0.98
00:12:22.000 So, for example, senior IRGC officer Mohsen Razahi said, The proud and triumphant nation of Iran brought the devils of the world to their knees and shattered their dominance. 0.89
00:12:31.000 This epic will endure eternally in history.
00:12:34.000 We mourn over the blood of our martyred leader, and there is no balm for this wound save vengeance.
00:12:38.000 United as one behind the supreme leader of the revolution, we await the fulfillment of the conditions.
00:12:43.000 Meanwhile, the guy whose name is on the other side of the agreement, Mohammed Khalabaf, who again is the leader of the Iranian parliament and a murderer, says, We are at your command.
00:12:53.000 The task assigned by us to the Supreme Leader is to pursue the realization of the conditions and clauses of the agreement.
00:12:58.000 In the event of bad faith, breach of contract, and excessive demands by the opposing side, we have no hesitation in delivering a crushing response to the enemy.
00:13:05.000 They were once slapped during the war.
00:13:07.000 If they wish to tread that path again, they'll receive an even harder slap.
00:13:11.000 So, again, does that sound like a wonderful, awesome partner?
00:13:16.000 Is that what that sounds like to you?
00:13:18.000 Meanwhile, the United States is out there talking about how wonderful and rational these people are.
00:13:22.000 President Trump, yesterday at the G7, was talking about how.
00:13:25.000 You know, the Iranians are great.
00:13:28.000 We're dealing with people that I think are very rational people.
00:13:31.000 I mean, they were nice to deal with.
00:13:34.000 They were strong people, smart people.
00:13:36.000 I think actually they're smarter than the first and second group.
00:13:40.000 But they're not radicalized and they're, you know, looking to help their country. 0.70
00:13:48.000 And then, of course, JD Vance, the vice president of the United States, he was on CBN News with David Brody, and he suggested that he was not uncomfortable in any way standing alongside Mohammed Khalaba, a mass murderer.
00:13:59.000 How uncomfortable is that going to be for you? 0.59
00:14:01.000 I mean, obviously, you don't support the actions of what he did, but you're going to be standing next to him.
00:14:06.000 You know, it's not uncomfortable.
00:14:07.000 I think what the president would say, and I certainly agree, is that you deal with all kinds of people in international relations.
00:14:12.000 Sometimes you deal with very nice people, sometimes you deal with very not nice people.
00:14:16.000 Our goal is to try to make the region safer, but most importantly, get what we need for the American people. 0.99
00:14:24.000 Okay, so again, the Iranians understand that if they are treated as a credible partner, they can play us for fools. 0.74
00:14:29.000 If we are more invested in the deal than they are, they can pretend that terms that we negotiated mean what they want them to mean, not what we say that they mean, and that we will continue to defend Iran and their, quote unquote, reasonable interpretations. 0.61
00:14:43.000 And that brings us back to Lebanon and what's been going on over the course of the last 48 hours.
00:14:43.000 That's the whole game.
00:14:48.000 So, if you recall, the MOU, which we've gone through in detail, literally point one of the deal reads, quote, the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran and their allies in the current war declare upon signing this memorandum of understanding,
00:15:05.000 Now, that provision can be read in two separate ways.
00:15:19.000 This is why I say a meeting of the minds requires both sides to read the provision the same way.
00:15:24.000 This is why lawyers usually negotiate out agreements like this, so that there is no lack of clarity.
00:15:29.000 The whole purpose, however, of this agreement was to prevent clarity.
00:15:32.000 So, The United States said from the outset that this term did not stop Israel from defending itself from Hezbollah because, again, the provision says that there would be an immediate and permanent cessation of military activity on all fronts, including in Lebanon.
00:15:46.000 Lebanon is a state.
00:15:47.000 Hezbollah is not the state of Lebanon.
00:15:50.000 Therefore, in the American read, this does not prevent anti terror action in Lebanon, it prevents action against the Lebanese government.
00:15:58.000 In Iran's read, this is supposed to prevent Israel from defending itself from Hezbollah. 0.71
00:16:04.000 And now, we would be a little crazy to try to stop Israel from protecting itself from Hezbollah.
00:16:10.000 Again, Hezbollah is not only a terrorist group, it is a terrorist group responsible for the murder of hundreds of Americans.
00:16:17.000 They killed 241 Marines in Beirut in 1983.
00:16:20.000 They killed another 19 U.S. airmen in Saudi in 1996 in the Khobar Towers bombing.
00:16:24.000 They've been responsible for the collapse of the Lebanese state and continuous terror attacks on northern Israel for decades at this point, literally every single day. 0.52
00:16:33.000 Iran says, literally, point one of the agreement, point one, the first point, is that we, the United States, must stop Israel from defending itself, which is kind of a big gap, right? 0.50
00:16:42.000 I mean, that's a big gap.
00:16:44.000 And everybody just glossed over it to get to a deal.
00:16:48.000 So, what does that mean?
00:16:49.000 It means the U.S., in an attempt to make it work, is now basically kind of trying to play it both ways. 0.98
00:16:54.000 We'll say, sure, Israel has the right to defend itself, but not too hard, because then the Iranians might get mad. 0.92
00:17:00.000 Now, the easiest way to accomplish this uncomfortable goal is to just lie and say that really you're in favor of Israeli self defense, like Israel can defend itself against terrorists, but the problem is they're brutal and vicious. 0.99
00:17:12.000 They're so mean. 0.72
00:17:13.000 Maybe the Syrians should do it, the Syrian terrorist army.
00:17:16.000 That's what the vice president has been doing over the course of the last couple of days.
00:17:19.000 Here's what he had to say at his Weiss House presser yesterday.
00:17:23.000 The Israelis, just like everybody else, have to respect this peace process that is fundamentally good for them and good for the entire region.
00:17:31.000 What the president has grown frustrated sometimes is that we seem to be right on the cusp of a major breakthrough in the agreement, and then all of a sudden there's a major explosion that goes off in a civilian population center in Beirut, and a lot of people who have nothing to do with Hezbollah lose their lives.
00:17:44.000 That's not acceptable.
00:17:46.000 Okay.
00:17:47.000 So he's lying.
00:17:48.000 It's not true.
00:17:49.000 What actually happened is that Hezbollah fired drones over the Israeli border into the sovereign state of Israel.
00:17:56.000 Again, if there were a Mexican drug cartel that began firing rockets over the border next to hotels in San Diego or homes in San Diego, do you think the Trump administration would say, hey, it's a pinprick, who cares?
00:18:08.000 Or would the Mexican drug cartels be destroyed immediately?
00:18:12.000 Also, it is not true that Israel destroyed an entire building and killed civilians.
00:18:16.000 This is actual video of the Beirut bombing.
00:18:18.000 As you can see, it hit a specific apartment.
00:18:19.000 And according to Hezbollah, It killed only members of Hezbollah. 0.66
00:18:33.000 Okay, so again, in order to make the claim that really, really, really Israel is allowed to defend itself, but not too hard because they get too crazy, that's the shtick. 0.74
00:18:43.000 We are now basically attempting to draw middle ground where none exists because we believe, as Americans, that our allies should be able to defend themselves from Iranian backed terrorists. 0.70
00:18:50.000 And Iran believes that we, as America, should stop our allies from defending themselves against Iranian backed terrorists.
00:18:57.000 So, you know, President Trump, he's trying to, again, tell the Israelis not to defend themselves too much because if they defend themselves too much, then it might kill the deal.
00:19:06.000 He was on.
00:19:07.000 With Mark Caputo at Axios, and he says that the Israelis basically will do whatever he says.
00:19:14.000 Are you going to be able to control Israel from attacking Lebanon?
00:19:18.000 Yeah. 0.99
00:19:19.000 I will be.
00:19:20.000 I mean, they have a lot of respect for me, and they do as I say.
00:19:29.000 Okay, so I mean, at this point, I should just point out actually, America doesn't do what Israel says, and Israel doesn't do what America says, and they're both sovereign countries.
00:19:36.000 As noted, the Israelis don't like this deal very much, they think it's a bad deal.
00:19:39.000 Okay.
00:19:40.000 Well, you know, America thinks it's a good deal.
00:19:42.000 And so President Trump is doing the deal.
00:19:44.000 That's the way it works.
00:19:45.000 Israel believes it ought to protect itself.
00:19:47.000 And so it will protect itself and should protect itself.
00:19:50.000 And this notion that America is going to tell them that they can't protect themselves in Lebanon, I don't see the purpose of it.
00:19:57.000 Instead, what we have is a sort of bizarre game in which the United States pretends there's a cycle of violence that just has to stop rather than Israeli self-defense.
00:20:06.000 And again, there are allies.
00:20:07.000 They were flying sorties with us this whole war.
00:20:10.000 It was Israeli intelligence that led to the targeting of Ayatollah Khomeini.
00:20:14.000 It was Israeli intelligence, by the way, that helped with rescuing American pilots, our pilots.
00:20:20.000 But the game is that because there was no actual agreement on the terms in the first place, we're going to manipulate the agreement into some sort of bizarre agreement that we never had with them.
00:20:31.000 And that is basically a non starter. 0.72
00:20:34.000 And Iran knows this. 0.66
00:20:35.000 Iran knows this. 0.99
00:20:36.000 Their entire goal is to push Hezbollah to kill Israelis. 0.87
00:20:40.000 Get the Israelis to respond, and then push the United States to blame Israel for being disproportionate so that Iran won't walk out of the deal. 0.68
00:20:48.000 And again, that's a great deal for Iran because if Israel were to listen and stop attacking Hezbollah, Hezbollah could up the ante, take back territory, reset up its terror bases, threaten Israel again, which Israel can't allow. 0.51
00:20:59.000 And if Israel doesn't allow it, then Iran hopes the United States will turn on Israel in order to protect a deal that doesn't really exist. 0.62
00:21:06.000 Again, the Iranians are really good at this, they're very smart.
00:21:10.000 And then, if and when the deal falls apart, Which, again, is extremely likely because the chances the MOU ever turns into the framework for a permanent deal are slim to none, given the fact that Iran and the United States don't agree on the basic deal points in the MOU.
00:21:24.000 Again, the United States says that the IAEA is going to be present to down blend Iranian nuclear weaponry and nuclear materials.
00:21:32.000 And the Iranian government is itself saying they will not work with the IAEA.
00:21:36.000 So there's really not even agreement on the basic terms of the deal.
00:21:39.000 But if and when the thing falls apart, then presumably the people who promote the deal the hardest will blame Israel for everything falling apart.
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