Liberals Break the Bank!
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Summary
On today's show, we are joined by MP for Peterborough South and MP for North Humberland, Peterborough North, Philip Lawrence, to discuss the impact of the Bank of Canada's new carbon tax on Canada's economy.
Transcript
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Hello and welcome once again to The Blueprints. This is Canada's Conservative Podcast. I'm your
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host, Jamie Schmael, Member of Parliament for Halliburton Court, the Lakes Brock, with new
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content for you every single Tuesday, 1.30 p.m. Eastern Time. On today's show, we are talking
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about the Bank of Canada governor. He says the inflation rate is impacted by the carbon tax.
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Who knew? Good of him to catch up. This and much, much more. We bring on Philip Lawrence,
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the Member of Parliament for North Humberland, Peterborough South, also the Deputy Finance
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Critic. Thanks for coming on the show. Thank you very much. It's a pleasure to be here, Jamie.
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And my geographical next-door neighbour. Absolutely. Yeah, we boarded right in Durham,
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I believe. We do, absolutely. So good of you to come on. We have a few clips from you in committee
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we'll get to in just a few moments. You, I guess, would cross-examine the Bank of Canada governor,
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Tiff Macklin, the other day. You were kind of grilling him on a couple of things. The impacts
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of the carbon tax on Canadians in general, and his answer was quite telling. We already knew the
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answer. But the other part was how much the carbon tax actually contributes to inflation.
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Thanks very much, Jamie. Yeah, we actually, I started the grilling or the discussion with
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Governor of Bank Canada, Tiff Macklin. Actually, way back in March of 2022, he actually, in response
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to my letters, in response to a question, sent the Finance Committee a letter saying that the
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carbon tax was directly attributable for 0.4 of inflation. That doesn't sound like a huge number
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in itself. But when you look at where we are with inflation, that represents, at the time,
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more than 10% of the inflation. Meaning that if you want it to reduce inflation by 10% tomorrow,
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you could simply scrap the tax, scrap the carbon tax, which is pretty remarkable, right?
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If you thought about, it's not quite proportional, but there is definitely a correlation. If I went
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to you, Jamie, and said, hey, I can drop your mortgage payment by 10%, or I could drop the cost
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of food for 10%, that's a pretty big deal. And so he came back before the Finance Committee,
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actually, the Liberals and the NDP and even some journalists had gotten it wrong. Because what
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he had said is that, like I said, 10% of inflation was directly attributable to the carbon tax. But he
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also said that the increase in the carbon tax related to about another 2% or 3% increase in
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inflation. And so the media and the NDP ran with it saying, the carbon tax is responsible for 2%.
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That's not what Mr. Macklin said. And he was good enough to clarify. And he actually even upped the
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number a little bit. So he went from 0.4 to 0.6, which equates to about 16% of inflation.
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Or as some of your viewers might know, Jamie, there's a target rate of inflation. There's a
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certain amount of inflation that's healthy, and the target rate is 2%. And so we're sitting at 3.8.
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What that means is that the carbon tax is responsible for 33% of inflation in excess of target.
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And so in order to make the economy healthy, it's a real quick, easy move. Remove a third of excessive
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or difficult or unhealthy inflation simply by scrapping the tax.
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And as we pointed out many times, many, many times, the carbon tax affects people every step
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of the way. You've heard our leader talk about it. You tax the farmer, you tax the trucker, you tax
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the people who buy the food. And there's a lot more in between about all these people who have to raise
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prices in order to cover their costs going to the government.
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Yet the government, just last week, we get news from their own environmental commissioner who says
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they're way off hitting their environmental target. So at that point, so their plan's not working.
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Then they have carve-outs for some Canadians and not others.
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So, and they're missing the truck. So the plan's clearly not working.
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Absolutely. And you brought up the exemption that currently exists that the Prime Minister announced.
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And obviously, it's unfair to the majority of Canadians. That exemption only affects 3%.
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And the only reason why that exemption was given was because of political science, not environmental
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science. His Atlantic caucus was ready to walk out. And in fact, one member of the Atlantic caucus
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had the gall during a vote to give the Canadian finger to the Canadian people. Just completely
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misguided. And it's a government completely out of touch. And you also talked about 234 a little bit,
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which is the exemption, which is a private member's bill, which is to give farmers an exemption from
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the carbon tax. Of course, I was good. I was very pleased to be one of the initiators or originators
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in Bill 216 that then was carried on with Ben Lobb's great Bill 234. And so this actually
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is another carve-out. So it's going to be another carve-out from the carbon tax. The Minister of
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Environment, Stephen Gilboa, said he would not allow it or he would resign if there was another
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carve-out. So this, another carve-out, looks like it's likely to pass the Senate. And that
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Well, let's hope. Maybe he can go back to his orange jumpsuit. But, you know, we get record
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numbers of people, news article after news article, of a record number of people, including those
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first-time users of a food bank, coupled with people who have, you know, decent jobs, trying
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to make a living, that are being forced to the food bank because the carbon tax is driving up the
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price of absolutely everything, making it harder for people to live, right? The misery is real
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100%, Jamie. And you see that really across our economy. So Canada is struggling through
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a productivity crisis. We are simply not creating enough jobs. We are not contributing enough to
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the GDP. We are in the worst economy, Jamie. And this is no word of a lie. And you can read
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Philip Cross, of course, former head of Stats Canada. He said this. We are in the worst economy
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since the Great Depression, right? It's hidden a little bit, because it's hidden by the fact
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that we've had tremendous immigration growth, which increases GDP. The more people they are,
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the more stuff they produce. But the telling stat is GDP per person, which is actually declining.
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We are getting poorer per person as a nation every single day. And the carbon tax is another
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inhibitor for productivity. Because not only does the carbon tax make more things more expensive,
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it stops businesses from ever starting. Because people look at it, they do their calculation,
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they're rational human beings, and they go, am I going to make a profit here or am I going to lose
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money? The carbon tax, in many ways, is tipping it the other way. So they're stopping businesses
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from occurring, from ever being formed, starting, stopping jobs, having people leave this country
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to go to jurisdictions like the United States where there is no carbon tax. We've seen that other
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countries can fight the climate crisis without use of the carbon tax. This carbon tax is punitive,
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it's hurting the most vulnerable, and causing all sorts of economic chaos.
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That's actually a very good point you just raised, because businesses, you know, existing businesses,
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they try to pass on the cost to the consumer, right? So the final person buying it has to pay
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all the other costs up the food chain. For new businesses, it's even harder, because you have not
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only rules, regulations, and red tape that stifle most small businesses. That's why you're seeing
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fewer and fewer small businesses start up, which were the lifeblood of small towns, that mine and
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yours and others. Absolutely. Coupled with the fact that with these barriers to competition,
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you can only raise the price so much before the market cannot bear any more price increases. And at
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that point, any existing business may lay off staff, might look to automation more, might reduce hours.
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Yeah. And if you're manufacturing something, you potentially look for somewhere else to manufacture.
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So you're going to see potential pain all throughout the chain, because people are trying, businesses are
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trying to still stay in business. But the prices can only go so far, right? This is the whole crux of
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the matter. Yeah, you are. So part of the inflationary crisis is the demand side. So when you print
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billions and billions of dollars, you create a lot of dollars chasing goods. In this case,
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too few goods. But the other side of it, the side that's not talked about as much, and I think it
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should be, is the supply side. When, if an economy can produce an abundance of goods and services,
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we get to equilibrium and we get rid of inflation. What's happening right now in the Canadian economy
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is a lack of productivity. We are right now on a trajectory to be worst in the OECD when it comes to
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productivity. So the less we produce as a society, the more, and with all those dollars, and also
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with all of our newcomers, which are great, and I love the diversity it adds to our community and
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our country, and we need immigration. But when we, when we are not giving them,
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giving newcomers a place to live, we have no capacity to employ them. What type of friendship
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are we really, really showing people around the world? We welcome them here and then say,
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oh, so sorry, you don't have a place to live. You don't have a job. We're creating a very difficult
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situation in our country. We need to put, in my opinion, Jamie, we need to put every single policy
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that we put forward through the lens of productivity. Is this making our country more productive?
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Is this going to add to prosperity? Because we are in a crisis of productivity, and it's not just me
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that said that. I've had numerous individuals, esteemed folks from Bill Morneau, to John Manley,
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to Tiff Macklin, to David Dodge, who've all agreed with me that we need to be more productive
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as an economy, because growth is the answer in many, in many areas. As we've said many times
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in the show, abundance equals peace, right? Shortage equals conflict, right? You can, the laws of supply
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and demand are near absolute, right? Like, people are nicer to each other when there's lots of it,
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right? When there's, when there's not that competition for a limited supply of goods or services. Now,
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as you mentioned, too, too many dollars chasing too few goods, all of that happened. They expanded the
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money supply faster than the actual economy was starting to grow. It's those on the lower end
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that seem to get forgotten. And it's quite surprising the absolute lack of compassion
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the Liberals have for those who are struggling. And so, I want to queue up cut one here. I want to
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get to the Governor of the Bank of Canada, Tiff Macklin, talking about those people who are hurting the
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most because of the inflationary crisis caused by this government. So, let's queue up cut one,
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and we'll get your feedback. Let's play cut one. Sure. First of all, it is the most vulnerable
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members of society that are suffering the most from high inflation. They are feeling the brunt of
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affordability more than everybody else. You know, they can't, they can't just move down market.
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They're already at the bottom of the market. You know, much of their spending is already
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on necessities. You can't cut back on that. And, you know, that's why it is so important that we
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get inflation down. Inflation is a tax that disproportionately affects the most vulnerable
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members of society. So, one way to add, or sorry, one way to lower the price of something is to add
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supply, right? Right. If we've stifled each other in this country because of these horrible liberal
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policies, our energy industry can't add more because it is handcuffed. 100%. Our farmers can't grow
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more or produce more because they are handcuffed, right? Right. Like, the carbon tax on the drying grains is
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stifling their ability to invest. The environment minister, I can't remember how long ago, kind of
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coming up with this brilliant idea that we'd reduce fertilizer use by 30%. Obviously, he walked
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that back. But these signals to the marketplace that pain is coming doesn't help when investors
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or those looking to produce things are looking for a path forward. No one's going to invest dollars
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to potentially lose them because government's going to squeeze it from them.
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Yeah, absolutely, Jimmy. And Tiff Macklin, in other testimony, wanted him to say
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that fiscal policy, which is the spending of the government, is working at counter purposes with
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the monetary policy, which means that liberal spending is driving up the cost of everything.
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And he's driving it up through inflation. And you heard Mr. Governor Macklin say that inflation
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is a tax on the most vulnerable. And originally, it was actually Milton Friedman who said that many years
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ago, but Pierre Polyev, our leader, said that two years ago and was ridiculed for it. When
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Chrystia and Tiff and all the smart people were saying, we're going to be in deflation. Well,
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guess who was right? Mr. Polyev. And for him to say that is actually an incredible acknowledgement.
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And let me translate a couple of things, what Tiff Macklin said in real people's speech. So he said,
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the most vulnerable can't go down market. What that means is the most vulnerable, if their costs go
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up, they can't afford to eat. Let's put it, and those are the real terms, right? They can't afford
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to feed their children. They can't afford to pay rent for their children to have somewhere to live.
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That's what he means by the most vulnerable can't go down market. It means people can't eat,
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Jamie. And that's a real impact on inflation. It is a real, real phenomenon. It has real impact
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from coast to coast to coast in this country. We've all seen and read the stories about
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people moving into their parents' basements and now parents moving into their kids' basements
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because they can't figure out a place to live because the price of real estate is through the
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roof because of this government. Food prices, energy prices, all the necessities of life are growing
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at a pace not matched by wage growth. And not to mention the hundreds of billions of dollars that
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have left this country in investment in the oil and gas sector. These are real serious problems that
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this government does not have a plan for. I should say maybe they do. Maybe it's another government
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program where they can cause the problem, then expect to be carried on people's shoulder as the savior.
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Yeah. As I believe it was Winston Churchill said this, Jamie, a nation trying to tax its prosperity
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is like a man standing in a bucket trying to lift himself up. Well, no nation has ever taxed itself
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in prosperity. All that you're doing is you're taking assets from the productive side of our
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of our society and putting them to the unproductive side. Now, government has a lot of great roles,
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important roles, which includes protecting our community, making sure that we're... Well,
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the government's failing at that too. They absolutely are. Look at the crime rate. They absolutely are.
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But it is proven over and over again that when it comes to creating wealth, when it comes to
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creating prosperity, that will come from the private sector. And so the larger the chunk this
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government takes and is ever increasing, it is starving our economy of capital. And we are actually
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right now worst in the OECD when it comes to capital investment. That's really quite scary and quite
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stark. And I'll try and put it in terms that characterize this accurately. What this means is
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that Canadian factories, Canadian businesses are not investing in new equipment at nearly the same
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rate as the United States and, in fact, all OECD countries. So what does that mean? Well, that means
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our factories have 20-year-old equipment while factories around the world have new equipment. Just imagine
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driving a 20-year-old car versus a new car, what that would look like, right? You're not going to
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win that race. We need to have dramatic capital investment to keep competitive, to boost our
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productivity number. And if the government keeps going in the pockets of you and me and business
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leaders, guess what? We're going to fall further and further behind, which is going to doom the next
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generation to actually being the first generation in Canadian history that didn't do as well or better
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And when we lose that private investment, when we lose that private capital coming in to create
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jobs, opportunity, and wealth, it's being replaced by government investment. And we all know that when
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government does that, look at their green slush fund, we'll get into that on another show probably,
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you get investment driven by the government agenda. So if you tick this box, you tick that box,
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you'll get the government grant, which is basically, let's create the application that matches
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what the government believes. Well, is it exactly the right thing to do? Maybe not. Does it match what the
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market wants? Probably not because the market would have created it if, if that was the case. You,
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you have a slowdown in actually innovation when you rely on government to make these decisions,
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phasing out the private sector and the market, which matches the demand from the consumer.
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Yeah. An efficient market, which there's no perfectly efficient market, but an efficient market,
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what it will do is it will, powered by consumer choice, push industry, push business into being the
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most effective creator of goods and services. When the government puts its hand in there,
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we're no longer looking at developing the best and the most efficiently made and the cheapest good
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possible. We're looking at satisfying liberal masters where you get crony capitalism, which is the most nasty
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of all situations. It may even be worse than socialism because though you're no longer got
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business owners who are out there trying to impress their consumers, they're trying to impress their
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liberal masters, right? We saw this in a Rive scam, we saw a little bit of this with SNC-Lavalin affair.
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These are all troublesome and difficult things that will slow the productivity of our economy,
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putting the prosperity of Canadians both now and in the future at risk. Let's queue up cut two. This is
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the Governor of Bank of Canada again, Tiff Macklin, talking about the effects of the carbon tax on
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the inflation rate. So kind of bringing it all together. Let's play cut two and we'll get your
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comments. It's about a minute long. Hang with us. One question is, because the carbon tax is going up,
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right, over time. So one question is, how much are the increases in the carbon tax adding to inflation
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each year? And that number is about 0.15 percentage points of inflation. And that's the direct impact
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on those three components. Perfect. Thank you. The second question you asked me was,
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what would be the effect if the carbon tax, what would be the effect on inflation if the carbon tax was
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eliminated? And that would create a one-time drop in inflation of 0.6 percentage points.
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Okay. So the NDP said that's not very big. Tell us why. Yeah. So Tiff Macklin, as I said,
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was actually in front of us in 2022. And he said that inflation at that point was 10%. The NDP,
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the Liberals, and even the media demagogued this incorrectly, they were conflating the impact of
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the increase in the carbon tax, which is 0.1% with the overall carbon tax. And Governor Macklin said
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unequivocally that 0.6%, 60 basis points of inflation is directly attributable to the carbon tax.
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That's not including actually downstream economic impacts we talked about as well. It's also just on
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fuel as well. It's not talking about other impacts of the carbon tax. So directly attributable to the
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carbon tax is 0.6 or 60 basis points, which equates to 16% of inflation. So we heard it there.
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I don't know if anyone's ever experienced this in their life, but it was so out there and the media
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was misreporting it, the NDP, the Liberals. I was almost starting to question myself, Jamie,
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did I really have this right? But I had the letter. So I knew that he had said it was 10% of inflation
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was directly part of the carbon tax. And I was expecting him, hoping him to say, which it was
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10%. And then he came out and said, no, no, no, Phil, it's actually 16%. Imagine that. You can press a
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button. The government could press a button tomorrow, eliminate the carbon tax and provide 16%
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relief to Canadians. That's incredible. Will they do it though? Probably not.
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No, no. And we need a carbon tax election, right? And, uh, uh, many, one of the many smart things
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that Pierre Polyev, our leader has said, uh, leader of the common sense conservatives, uh, is that we
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should have a carbon tax election. If you remember back in, uh, in 2021, uh, uh, liberal leader,
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Justin Trudeau, uh, called an election because there was a significant change or whatever he was making
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up. Uh, so he spent $600 million on a necessary unneeded election. This, this is a much bigger
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deal. We, we need to have a discussion and we need to have an election to either decide whether
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the country we're going forward with a quadrupling of the carbon tax at the behest of the NDP,
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the liberal government, or whether they're going to accept the common sense conservative leaders
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plan to ax the tax. All right. We have one more clip. Uh, let's queue up cut three,
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and then we, uh, are running short on time. So we'll have to get out of here, but let's,
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let's, uh, queue up cut three. We'll, uh, we'll talk about this once it's done. Let's play cut three.
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If this government continues to spend at a rate of ever growing, um, in 2.5% or beyond,
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as they've continued to be spent, that we're going to start to put at risk some of our social policies,
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uh, some of our social benefits, some of the things that Canadians hold dearest if, uh, if,
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if we don't get our spending under control. I don't like, I certainly don't like the
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trend where we're on. And I would say, as I said in my remarks, the big game changer here
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is that interest rates are now higher than growth rates. And that will affect the primary deficit
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just to grow on itself, as I think Mr. Dodge explained to this group last, uh, week or previously.
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And so this is what happened in the nineties, is that we were not able to generate enough growth
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to reduce our deficit. So growth has to come first.
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Growth has to come first. Growth has to come first. Absolutely. That was Robert Aslan, uh,
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former, I believe chief of staff for Bill Morneau, um, and now head of the business council of Canada,
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um, I believe. Um, and, uh, Mr. Aslan had, uh, some great testimony there. So he's a liberal,
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right? Uh, but he is, uh, he's a common sense liberal that, uh, that gets the fact that we need to have
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growth in order to have the social program. So you'll hear, uh, and one of the liberal members is famous
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for saying chop, chop, chop, uh, that the conservatives are going to cut, cut, cut. No,
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no. In fact, quite the opposite. We need to grow the economy so we can afford to properly fund health
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care. Do you know, Jamie, that we pay almost as much in health care transfers as we do in interest
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payments. That's right. So interest payments equate to health care. So we could double health care
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spending if we hadn't had this liberal government recklessly spending, driving up the deficits,
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driving up our costs, uh, of borrowing. Uh, so we've got a double sword that they've imposed on us.
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One is the fact that they've of course put these inflations and deficits and debts, uh, on us. Uh,
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and, uh, so the deficit of course raises the, the amount of borrowing, inflation rises the cost.
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And so now we're paying in interest payments almost as much as we're paying in health care transfers.
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As anyone has ever paid interest before. And I think that's, uh, that's many based on the stats,
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unfortunately, that are being released. It's basically wasted money making other people rich.
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Uh, we need to get that under control and only a common sense conservative government will do that.
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Philip, we're, we're pretty much out of time. Actually, we've gone a bit over,
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but the guests always get the last word. So I'll give the floor to you.
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Thanks very much, Jamie. You know what? There are relatively simple things we can do,
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like scrapping the carbon tax that can provide relief to Canadians.
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The people across Canada and my riding of Northumberland, Peterborough South are hurting.
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We need to do everything we can to make life a little easier for them. And we need, uh,
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we need that common sense conservative plan led by our common sense conservative leader, Pierre Paulio.
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Philip Lawrence, member of parliament for Northumberland, Peterborough South,
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also the deputy finance critic. We thank him for his time. We thank you for yours.
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low taxes, less government, more freedom. That's the blueprint.