The results of Alberta's municipal elections have finally been released, and Vitor Marciano joins us to talk about the results and what they mean for the rest of the country. He also talks about why Albertans voted for two left-wing, socialist candidates.
00:00:00.160Alberta has sent a clear message to the rest of the country saying that our Confederation is simply not working for them.
00:00:06.940Now, will the Prime Minister and will the rest of the country listen?
00:00:09.940I'm Candice Malcolm and this is The Candice Malcolm Show.
00:00:16.660So today I want to talk about the results of the recent municipal election and those referensums that happened out in Alberta.
00:00:23.520As you know, we at True North covered the topic in depth.
00:00:26.180We even hosted a live show on the night of the election out in Alberta.
00:00:30.400We were joined by some great guests, our friends.
00:00:33.020In Alberta, we had former leader of the opposition, Danielle Smith.
00:00:36.960We had rebel bureau chief, Sheila Gunn-Reed.
00:00:39.200We had the head of the Yes campaign on that equalization question, Dr. Bill Buick.
00:00:43.560And we had a brilliant political advisor, Vitor Marciano.
00:00:47.160Well, the results of those referendums have finally been released, the official results.
00:00:51.040We sort of had a picture of what was happening, but the official results were finally released this week.
00:00:55.600And we're going to bring back one of those guests to do a bit of a deep dive to dissect the results and analyze what it means for the country and what will happen next.
00:01:05.140But before any of that, I just want to say if you enjoy The Candice Malcolm Show, if you like what we are doing, don't forget to subscribe on YouTube.
00:01:11.540If you're watching on YouTube, like this video, subscribe, leave us a comment, let us know what you think.
00:01:15.660And don't forget to hit that little notification bell.
00:01:17.540It really helps us out and it makes sure that you never miss a video.
00:01:20.540If you're watching on Facebook, share this video, like this video, like our page.
00:01:23.760Don't forget to leave us a comment as well.
00:01:25.640And if you are listening to the show in podcast form over on Apple Podcasts or Google Podcasts, don't forget to leave us a five-star review if you like the program and to subscribe to The Candice Malcolm Show.
00:01:38.180So joining us today on the program is our friend Vitor Marciano.
00:01:42.300Vitor is an advisor to many small C conservative political parties and candidates over in his home in Edmonton, as well as across the province of Alberta, across Canada.
00:01:51.580So, Vitor, thank you so much for joining us.
00:01:57.420Well, you joined us on that live election show that we did and you really helped us make sense of what's going on, particularly understanding how it is that Albertans vote for these sort of left-wing socialist candidates municipally, whereas they're sort of reliably staunch conservative voters, at least federally, usually provincially as well, although you did elect an NDP government a couple of years ago.
00:02:18.580So, before we get into the results of the equalization, what did you make of that final result, the fact that you elected two sort of left-wing mayors in Calgary and Edmonton?
00:02:29.360And one of the first things, I think the first thing that Jody Gondek in Calgary did was declare a climate emergency and sort of capitulate to the Trudeau liberal message when it comes to climate alarmism.
00:02:38.780Well, I think the overall number for the equalization referendum and the election of the two mayors are linked.
00:02:50.480I think there was a little bit of the Jason Kenney effect in this, and both the top left-wing mayoralty candidates benefited from the fact that right now our premier is decidedly unpopular, and it's bringing down the numbers for conservatives across the whole.
00:03:09.800It wasn't uncommon for people from all over the province the next day to be texting each other saying, is the conservative movement dead in Alberta?
00:03:16.660And the answer is no, it's not. But it's hurting right now, and that hurting translated both into a slower result than would have been ideal on the equalization referendum,
00:03:27.660and into Jody Gondek winning in Calgary and Amarjit Zohi winning in Edmonton.
00:03:34.700There's more to the municipal elections than just Kenney, but the fact that Kenney isn't popular right now doesn't help.
00:03:41.160Interesting. You say that the votes in equalization were as strong as it could be. I mean, 62% is a huge majority. That's a decisive vote.
00:03:50.920Any politician walking away with 62% of the vote is pretty happy, Vitor. So interesting to hear you say that it wasn't quite what it could be.
00:03:58.460In all honesty, I've seen polling from 2018 and 2019 that had more than 60% of new Democratic voters then supporting doing something about equalization.
00:04:09.500I think there were an awful lot of people who went into the ballot box and said, I can vote no here and send Jason Kenney a message.
00:04:17.640Whereas a whole bunch of, you know, 62% of Albertans went into the box and said, I'm voting yes to send Justin Trudeau a message.
00:04:25.360There's sort of a fundamental understanding in Alberta that equalization as it's currently done is unfair.
00:04:33.220And it's unfair to Alberta. It's just not a fair system. And so there's this sense of that that's pervasive.
00:04:41.580Unfortunately, this question, this vote at this time became about more than just that.
00:04:47.920But still, 62%. It's almost two to one. That's a real number. That's a real vote. It makes a difference.
00:04:57.480Well, on a similar topic there, one of the things that we discussed on election night and that was just really obvious throughout the entire lead up to the referendum was how little there was really coverage of it mentioned.
00:05:09.800But we didn't really see federal conservative MPs going out stumping for the question.
00:05:14.060We barely heard anything in the weeks leading up to it from Kenny.
00:05:16.940So it's interesting the media is now framing it as like this is Jason Kenney's pet project.
00:05:22.340When really leading up to it, it was almost like he was distancing himself from it.
00:05:25.940My personal opinion has been that Jason Kenney's never been highly enthusiastic about this project.
00:05:32.160It was a campaign promise that he made because it was popular, but this is not an instinctive space for him.
00:05:38.440He is not one of these politicians that is looking forward to constitutional negotiations.
00:05:44.160He comes from the school that says, learn from Meech, learn from Charlottetown, never have constitutional negotiations again.
00:05:50.460There's an awful lot of Albertans who are like, yeah, learn from Meech, learn from Charlottetown, have constitutional negotiations when necessary.
00:05:59.720Just the mere fact that we can have those conversations is good for readjusting the mind frame of the rest of the country.
00:06:07.800And there's there's there's some reason to be hopeful about that.
00:06:11.260And well, and you really you did sort of see the sort of lack of excitement from Kenny.
00:06:19.240But but the idea that I think a lot of Albertans recognize is that Alberta should be learning from Quebec.
00:06:25.640You know, Quebec really knows how to put its interests first to communicate for them.
00:06:30.440These these these these previous referendums were kind of a pathway to getting more political power within the Canadian system.
00:06:36.020Seemed to me that Kenny chose the referendum route because the alternative was like a lot of people talking about separation or independence.
00:06:43.280And this was kind of like a way out within the Canadian Confederation.
00:06:48.140So what do you think the results say about the future of Alberta within within Canada?
00:06:52.880I think when you combine the results coming out on the same day as a Trudeau cabinet that is decidedly anti Alberta, I mean, that that Trudeau cabinet that the picking the old environment minister, putting him in charge of natural resources, taking the most radical, least practical, least normal person in his entire caucus and making him the environment minister.
00:07:22.880So that is a shot. That is a shot. It's not a shot across the bow.
00:07:26.700That's a shot in the foot to to Alberta with a threat that the gun is going to start moving up.
00:07:58.200You know, I was deeply involved in that original UCP leadership race, and there was an awful lot of feeling of, you know, Jason Kenny is a fighter and we need a fighter to go fight Justin Trudeau.
00:08:09.800And, you know, he's not the nicest guy in the race, but we don't need a nice guy.
00:08:14.400And then Premier Kenny was pretty mild.
00:08:18.320And so I think, you know, that was the beginning of some of the problems that he's had.
00:08:21.680And he's got a chance now to act on them, to change things around.
00:08:25.920But I'm not sure that that will necessarily happen.
00:08:29.420Yeah. I remember people talking about how, you know, even just the fact that he spoke French so fluently could be used as a way to improve Alberta's voice within the country, to have our voice heard, have your voice heard in Quebec.
00:08:41.200And you're right, you don't really see a lot of that.
00:08:43.900It's horrible, actually, because let me give you a couple of examples just in the last month of brutal things that have happened in Quebec that impact Alberta that Jason Kenny's French never talked about.
00:08:56.760One, the Premier of Quebec has ruled that Quebec will stop the exploration of oil and gas inside Quebec.
00:09:05.020People don't know this, but Quebec has gas fields that are bigger than the gas fields of the North Sea.
00:09:11.200If Quebec wanted to explore its natural gas, if Quebec wanted a frack like upstate New York and Pennsylvania do, Quebec would be a global exporter of liquid natural gas, and a significant one.
00:09:24.860But Quebec has chosen not to, one, because they don't want the extra money because they would lose equalization.
00:09:29.320But when the Premier of one of our provinces announced that the exploration of oil and gas was shut down in this province and, in effect, is confiscating the resources of some companies, including Alberta companies, the very, very fluent in French Premier of Alberta said absolutely nothing.
00:09:46.740Then just last week, after Elections Canada announced that using the set formula that's in the Constitution for the allocation of seats, that Alberta will get three new seats once seats are reallocated and Quebec will lose one, the Premier of Quebec came out and said, not a chance.
00:10:05.580Quebec will never lose a seat. Quebec should get more seats. Percentages and proportional representation and any sort of fair representation don't matter.
00:10:15.260And the Premier of Alberta again was silent. Like, these are issues where he needs to be speaking up. He's just not speaking up. And it's part of the reason why he's got political problems right now.
00:10:28.060Certainly. What did you make of Justin Trudeau's response? He basically just said this is a partisan political thing and that he doesn't seem like he's really going to weigh it very, very deeply. What do you think about Trudeau?
00:10:38.340I think Trudeau is going to try for as long as he can not to have constitutional discussions. And in the process, he's going to feed alienation into Alberta. But in some ways, Trudeau is going to be saved from his bad strategic decision to avoid these discussions by the fact that COVID is going to make all of the small provinces want constitutional discussions in the next 18 to 24 months.
00:11:06.000This is the part that there's a weird confluence of timing happening here. Alberta wants to have constitutional discussions about equalization, but what's happening in all of the small provinces is that healthcare, which was 40, 45, 48% of their budgets, post-COVID, when they have to make changes to how their healthcare system works and to how their seniors care system works, healthcare is going to be 60% of their budgets.
00:11:29.580And they can't afford it. And they can't afford it. They can't find people to buy their bonds. I mean, Newfoundland is functionally bankrupt. Their bonds are being picked up by the government of Canada. The truth is most of the provinces, up to 40% of their bonds are being picked up by the government of Canada.
00:11:46.360Provinces can't print money, but they have the long-term year-over-year costs associated with dealing with COVID. And it's not dealing with COVID in the moment, it's dealing with how COVID has reprogrammed our brains in terms of thinking about seniors' care and healthcare.
00:12:02.720So we're 18 to 24 months from all these small provinces saying, yeah, we need to meet and discuss the constitution and the allocations of money and how healthcare get done. And that opens the door for Jason Kenney to insert equalization into the discussion.
00:12:16.420And to be fair to Jason yesterday, he did recognize that equalization is only one of Alberta's grievances. Once you open up the constitution, you start talking about things, there might be things that matter to us more than equalization to become trade-offs in the equalization healthcare discussion.
00:12:33.200Let's talk a little bit about healthcare because I know we kind of got into this on election night and you had that great piece over in the National Post where you were talking about why it is that Alberta and Jason Kenney couldn't do what Ron DeSantis did.
00:12:46.100You know, Ron DeSantis has become incredibly popular among the conservative base in the United States and he's got a following of admirers up in Canada as well.
00:12:56.640So many people were saying, why can't we just do what Texas is doing? Why can't we do what Florida is doing?
00:13:00.840You know, the media are absolutely vicious to Ron DeSantis. They call him Ron Death Santos and, you know, they accuse him of murder.
00:13:09.600Meanwhile, you know, Florida's booming. Everybody's moving to Florida. Everybody's moving their company to Florida. The real estate in Florida is going crazy.
00:13:17.240And the reason that everyone wants to be there is because it's like normal America again. Like they've gone completely back.
00:13:22.240And you made the argument that, you know, even if Jason Kenney wanted to take that approach, the results would be drastically different.
00:13:28.740So why don't you explain that to us here?
00:13:31.440We can't handle the percentage numbers of COVID. COVID is real.
00:13:38.560But if you have enough capacity to absorb the punch, you have different policy options that you can choose.
00:13:44.440So in the United States, especially in the bigger states, but frankly, in any state relative to Canada, they have more hospital capacity to handle the small percentage of people who will get very sick when they get COVID.
00:13:59.600That small percentage of people wipes out our systems.
00:14:03.980So in Alberta, when we got to the level of 18 people per hundred thousand were hospitalizable with COVID.
00:14:13.580So if you think about it, if you're living somewhere in a medium sized city in Canada and it's a hundred thousand person city, if 18 people are sick at once with a disease, that overruns your hospital system.
00:14:24.960It's not actually built to handle that capacity, whereas the Americans, some of these big states can handle 45 per hundred thousand, no problem.
00:14:34.280And so the net effect of that is that you can absorb the punch of people getting sick while you go to an open the economy strategy.
00:14:42.980Recognize that 95, 96% of the people who get COVID will get a very mild version of it.
00:14:50.9803% will get a version of it that is bad enough that they want to visit the hospital, but the hospital will send them home because they're still okay and, you know, monitor and be careful.
00:15:01.160And then you get that small 3%, 2% that actually end up having to be hospitalized for a little bit.
00:15:08.180The vast majority of those will recover and be okay.
00:15:10.880But it's, it's all about the numbers and your ability to absorb the punch that is COVID.
00:15:16.320In Canada, we don't have the hospital space.
00:15:18.480We've, we've got publicly funded hospitals and we have just enough hospitals and we have just enough hospitals run by middling ability bureaucrats who built centralized systems that are inflexible and, and can't adjust to the need to absorb a punch.
00:15:37.840And so those policy options are just not available to us.
00:15:41.560If we tried them in Canada, lots and lots of people would die.
00:15:45.900Doctors and nurses would flee the health system because it would just become too catastrophic and the pain would be too great.
00:15:51.460But our politicians don't want to talk about that because that's, that's admitting that something that they've bragged about for generations is actually a failure.
00:16:00.420Like the elephant in the room here is that Canada's centralized, socialized healthcare system isn't doing very well.
00:16:05.740And on top of that, I mean, there's two, there's two kind of questions that come next.
00:16:09.780The first one is that we're now into our second year of COVID.
00:16:12.860We're, we're, we're approaching the two year mark, you know, in a couple months here.
00:16:17.660Why haven't they done anything to increase the capacity?
00:16:20.820And then on the other side, Vitor, you have a situation where the hospitals and, and, and, and provinces are implementing vaccine mandates so that if you were a nurse or a doctor who objects to getting COVID vaccine for your own personal reasons or health reasons or, or whatever, you risk getting fired.
00:16:38.040In British Columbia, the nurses union said that that was about 20% of the workforce.
00:16:42.380So you have a situation where nothing's changed in two years, despite knowing that we need more ICU capacity and because of politics and ideology, they're going to artificially reduce their capacity even further by potentially firing people who refuse to, to get in line with this ideology that everyone must be vaccinated.
00:17:03.600There's a variety of things that have caused this.
00:17:06.040One is that in, with the exception of Quebec, um, everybody had a very mild first wave.
00:17:13.760And at that point, early in the first wave, everybody is planning for special case medicine.
00:17:22.560We're going to do things differently because this is a pandemic and it could be very deadly and we just can't let a pandemic destroy our hospital system.
00:17:30.380So we're going to plan on doing things differently.
00:17:32.560And then that first wave wasn't that bad.
00:17:34.580And then the, the horrible bureaucrats and the cheapskate politicians, because the two go together, um, said, well, that wasn't too bad.
00:17:46.100We can handle this with our normal system.
00:17:47.820We can handle this with normal health care.
00:17:49.800And so they planned for the second wave with normal health care.
00:17:53.040And the second wave was bad in a lot of places, but the, the healthcare system could handle it.
00:17:58.300Uh, the third wave was bad in a lot of places and the healthcare systems started to get creaky.
00:18:02.580Alberta is the only one that's had a fourth wave yet.