The Candice Malcolm Show - April 24, 2025


Canada’s TOP pollster says the POLLS ARE WRONG

Topics
neighbor poll
Hosted by
Candice Malcolm
Guests
David Murray
Mentioned
David Coletto Donald Trump Pierre Poilievre Mark Carney Aaron Gunn Candace Malcolm Show Justin Trudeau Ezra Levant Grok John A. Macdonald Bloc Québécois Jagmeet Singh Andrew Lawton Steve Pakin Ken Paxton Fournier Poliev Harper
CBC has LOST CONTROL of the election – and the country (ft. Ezra Levant) Carney’s plan BACKFIRES, entire campaign goes down in FLAMES

Episode Stats


Length

24 minutes

Words per minute

181.47

Word count

4,456

Sentence count

250

Harmful content

Misogyny

1

sentences flagged

Hate speech

1

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

The final exclusive poll from Juno Polls shows a dead heat in the race between the Tories and Liberals at 39% and 39%. Candice talks with David Murray, our in-house pollster for the campaign, about how the polls have shifted over the course of the campaign and why the race is so close.

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Misogyny classifications generated with MilaNLProc/bert-base-uncased-ear-misogyny .
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
Topics generated with Qwen2.5-3B-Instruct.
Hosts, guests, and mentioned names generated with spaCy (en_core_web_sm), reconciled against Wikidata.
00:00:00.000 Mark Carney, Trudeau's money man, globalist, China's pal.
00:00:06.700 Weeks in, he jets to Beijing, scores a $250 million loan from their state bank.
00:00:15.560 11 MPs tied to Beijing.
00:00:19.140 Carney's crew says nothing, selling us out.
00:00:23.580 Foreign cash, secret deals, Carney's Canada.
00:00:30.000 Hi, I'm Candace Malcolm, and this is the Candace Malcolm Show.
00:00:36.080 So one of the things that we have done for you at Juno News is we have provided our own polls throughout the election campaign.
00:00:42.840 I don't trust the legacy media. I don't trust their polls.
00:00:46.280 And so for that reason, we decided to hire one of the best polling companies in the country to do our own polls.
00:00:52.160 We did things differently. One of the key things that we did differently is that we asked a neighbor poll.
00:00:56.640 So we asked Canadians who they think their neighbor is voting for, which really helped us understand where the momentum was, right?
00:01:03.180 Like, what are people saying in coffee shops? What are people saying around the dinner table?
00:01:06.540 How many signs are you seeing? What's happening in your neighborhood?
00:01:10.080 And what the neighbor poll has shown throughout this campaign is that the conservatives are winning.
00:01:15.060 So contrary to the legacy media, their idea that the liberals have had this huge lead throughout the campaign, our polls have said something different.
00:01:22.800 Today, we have the final exclusive poll from Juno polls, and it shows a dead heat, folks.
00:01:29.580 39-39. This is going to be an incredibly close election.
00:01:34.600 It will all come down to Election Day and who has the better ground game, who has more volunteers, who has more enthusiasm in getting their voters to the polls to vote for the candidate.
00:01:47.700 And it is just incredibly important that everybody who can gets out there and volunteers and helps if you want change in this country.
00:01:55.840 So to talk about this poll, go through line by line what the poll found.
00:02:00.840 I'm pleased to be joined by David Murray. David has been our in-house pollster for the campaign.
00:02:05.700 He is an executive at One Persuade, which is a polling company in Ontario.
00:02:10.020 David, thanks so much for joining us.
00:02:11.740 Good to be with you.
00:02:12.800 Okay, so why don't you give it to us? What is the top line from the poll this week?
00:02:17.100 Top line this week is Conservatives and Liberals, a dead heat at 39 percent, NDP at 10, Greens at 3, and Bloc Québécois at 8.
00:02:25.800 Other parties are at 2.
00:02:27.620 2. So 39-39, literally a tie.
00:02:31.040 And just maybe explain how this has shifted over the course of the campaign.
00:02:35.720 Like, where were we at the beginning? How have things changed to get to where we are here the last week?
00:02:39.720 There's been not a ton of movement, but what we've seen overall is a tightening over the course of the election.
00:02:48.300 You'll recall even a few weeks ago, we had the Liberals ahead by over 8 points.
00:02:54.880 We were showing this, basically all the other pollsters were showing this,
00:02:57.920 and everyone seems to be consistently coming together and saying that things are really getting tight throughout the entire country.
00:03:03.940 Some say the bubbles in an Aero Truffle piece can take 34 seconds to melt in your mouth.
00:03:08.980 Sometimes the very amount you're stuck at the same red light.
00:03:12.380 Rich, creamy, chocolatey Aero Truffle.
00:03:15.480 Feel the Aero Bubbles melt.
00:03:17.520 It's mind bubbling.
00:03:19.300 Well, I want to jump to David Coletto.
00:03:21.880 I believe that David Coletto is one of the best, if not the best, pollsters.
00:03:26.040 Yes, he's part of the sort of legacy media clique, and he frequently is featured on legacy media.
00:03:32.080 But he's fair.
00:03:33.860 He's down the middle.
00:03:34.320 Actually, I was telling this to my producer.
00:03:36.100 He used to work with me at the Sun News Network.
00:03:38.520 So way back at the very beginning of his career and my career, he was a young pollster at Sun News Network,
00:03:44.420 which means that he's not, you know, if he's willing to work at Sun, he's not totally in the bag for the left.
00:03:48.760 He has a very interesting perspective here.
00:03:52.360 I want to show a tweet or a post on X that he wrote.
00:03:55.240 He wrote this question, first of all, to go from a 15-point liberal lead a month ago to a 2.1 today is pretty remarkable.
00:04:04.860 If you believe this, then you have to believe that, one, the liberals have run a horrible campaign,
00:04:09.560 and, two, the conservatives have won an amazing campaign.
00:04:12.300 So you can tell that there's some sort of skepticism in this idea, capturing the same thing that our poll captured,
00:04:17.920 which was that almost all the pollsters don't see this.
00:04:20.900 You know, a month ago, they had Carney up as much as 15 points, which I don't really believe, to just, you know, for them, it's a two-point lead for the Libs.
00:04:29.320 For us, it's a tie.
00:04:31.040 And then he further elaborated on this, and he wrote point blank.
00:04:36.480 I don't believe the liberals led by 15 points at any point, six to eight max.
00:04:42.700 So here you have an established mainstream pollster, one of the most, if not the most trusted pollster in the entire country,
00:04:51.140 saying that the polls are wrong, that he does not believe the polls.
00:04:54.420 I had Ezra Levant on my show earlier today.
00:04:56.680 He pointed this out to me, and I'm going to point out to the audience because it's so interesting, just to elaborate on this.
00:05:01.800 So David Coletto basically just said that he doesn't believe that this is right.
00:05:07.220 He writes, what if the liberals never really led by eight to 12 points, and it was just response bias, right?
00:05:15.260 So what is response bias?
00:05:17.000 Ezra Levant replies, holy smokes, he asked Grok, the AI tool on X, what is response bias in polling?
00:05:25.540 And this is what Grok said, response bias in polling is when participants' answers do not reflect their true opinions or behaviors,
00:05:35.280 skewing the results, this can happen when, and then names a number of factors like social desireability.
00:05:40.020 So just bear with me here.
00:05:41.800 I think that there was a point at the campaign where the legacy media and all of the fancy people and all of the elites in Canada were saying,
00:05:50.060 elbows up, elbows up, folks, we have to bring in the liberals again to protect us from Donald Trump.
00:05:56.080 And that was sort of like the zeitgeist, the overwhelming, almost like COVID-level groupthink that was being pushed on Canadians.
00:06:02.940 And many of them kind of just went along with it, even though they didn't really believe it,
00:06:06.920 even though in their heart of hearts they still wanted change, they wanted something different,
00:06:10.780 they believed that it's time for a new government, a new party.
00:06:13.940 And so their intentions were always to vote conservative, but they told pollsters that they were part of the elbows up crowd,
00:06:20.800 part of the liberal movement.
00:06:22.760 And so that is why, sort of reading between the lines, I believe that's what David Coletto is saying,
00:06:28.460 which shows that even the pollsters themselves that are conducting these polls don't believe that the liberals actually held that level of lead.
00:06:36.240 What do you think, David?
00:06:37.340 I think this also points to our methodology of using the neighbor poll as well,
00:06:40.520 because there's always a phenomenon that we've known about for a very long time called shy Tory,
00:06:45.140 where people are more reluctant to personally admit that they are actually voting conservatives
00:06:49.920 than compared to other more, quote unquote, socially acceptable parties.
00:06:55.140 And David is an absolute professional, completely respect his work.
00:06:58.440 He's also very noticeably, very recently, he also did an issue set scan as well,
00:07:05.220 and really noted how the race in and of itself has shifted over the course in terms of actual issues that are brought forward.
00:07:13.740 So it was at the very beginning when everyone was showing Carney quite far ahead.
00:07:19.700 It was very much focused on Donald Trump, like literally trumping all other issues.
00:07:24.300 But as time has gone on, as Mr. President Trump has been a little bit more quiet on the scene,
00:07:32.080 you've seen that issue shift away more towards cost of living, to housing, to public safety,
00:07:36.980 all of these core issues that Mr. Poliev has been talking about at great length.
00:07:40.820 So I agree that I don't think that the liberals were ever 15 points ahead.
00:07:47.680 I think that that is certainly a stretch.
00:07:50.180 But I think this also goes back to my earlier theory from a few episodes ago,
00:07:54.980 where there's a difference between Mark Carney the idea and Mark Carney the actual person.
00:07:59.260 So the idea of an economic manager, a central banker being, quote unquote,
00:08:04.840 steady hand at the wheel is quite different from the actual Mark Carney that's been presented to Canadians
00:08:10.520 over the course of the last few weeks.
00:08:12.400 So I think as Canadians continue to reconcile that,
00:08:15.300 I think that also explains a lot of the movement that we've been seeing in these polls.
00:08:20.180 I talked about this after the debate.
00:08:21.940 I think that anybody who watched the debate,
00:08:24.260 that the entire narrative that legacy media has been trying to promote,
00:08:27.280 that this is an election about Trump, that Trump is an existential threat to Canada,
00:08:31.040 and that the only party that can save us from Trump is the most anti-American party.
00:08:35.300 That whole narrative just went out the window if you watch the debate.
00:08:37.760 Because I give Steve Pakin, the moderator, a lot of credit for steering the debate,
00:08:43.680 the content of the debate, the questions around actual issues about Canada,
00:08:48.020 like the cost of living, the public policy issues made by the federal government.
00:08:51.900 That is what we're voting on.
00:08:52.900 We're voting on who is the best manager of the federal government,
00:08:55.540 not like some, you know, who can summon the courage about, you know,
00:08:59.780 this voodoo spirit that's coming out, attacking us from the South. 1.00
00:09:02.840 Like, that's all nonsense.
00:09:04.620 The question of this campaign is really about who will be the best government,
00:09:09.020 who will be the best manager of Canada.
00:09:10.700 And anyone who watched the debate knew that that Trump line just didn't stick.
00:09:14.600 It just didn't work.
00:09:15.660 And the more the debate went on, the more the questions just became about,
00:09:20.420 again, cost of living, housing, taxes, regulation,
00:09:23.180 how can we grow our economy, how can we stop the slumping economy, etc., etc.
00:09:27.960 Rightly so.
00:09:28.980 And just one more tweet from David Coletto,
00:09:30.640 and then we'll get back to our exclusive poll.
00:09:32.880 But he talks about how the framing of the election really matters.
00:09:36.200 So this is one more post from X.
00:09:37.780 He said that the campaign is evolving in the way that voters are framing the ballot question.
00:09:42.760 At the end of March, more Canadians said that they would cast their vote
00:09:45.580 based on which party could best handle Donald Trump and his impact on Canada.
00:09:49.360 But in our most recent surveys, it's flipped back.
00:09:52.260 And so if you just look at this screenshot, this frame,
00:09:55.100 the first column here, the red numbers are the people who are putting Trump first.
00:10:00.160 Like that's what their main ballot box question.
00:10:01.880 The last week of March, 54% of Canadians said that that was a top issue
00:10:05.480 versus 46% who said it's about who could best change the direction of the country.
00:10:10.480 That has completely flipped.
00:10:12.520 So over the five weeks of the campaign, it went from 54% looking at Trump,
00:10:16.700 46% looking at change, and then you can flip that.
00:10:18.920 So 44% now at Trump, 56% now about change.
00:10:23.120 If you switched it and changed it to Trump versus the cost of living.
00:10:27.440 So at the beginning of the campaign, 58% of the people said cost of living, 42% said Trump.
00:10:32.820 Now, five weeks later, 64% say cost of living, only 36% say Trump when it's compared to those two issues.
00:10:42.120 And then the third question was who has a better plan for the economy,
00:10:45.640 whether that's going to be the thing you vote on, or again, Donald Trump.
00:10:49.540 At the beginning of the campaign, it was 53% said grow the economy, 47% said Trump,
00:10:55.540 and now that's 59% say, and then 41% say Trump.
00:11:00.460 So 59% say grow the economy, 41% Trump.
00:11:03.700 So no matter which question it is, the Trump issue has declined in its importance,
00:11:09.220 and the other issues have grown.
00:11:11.280 So whether or not it's actually a 10-point swing away from the Liberals,
00:11:14.760 or maybe just a 10 to 15-point swing away from Trump being the ballot box question,
00:11:20.520 what do you think of this?
00:11:22.160 I think that while the importance of the Trump question has certainly degraded over time,
00:11:27.880 over the course of the campaign,
00:11:29.540 I think it's still definitely in the top three or four issues for a lot of Canadians.
00:11:33.840 And so with that shift, with it not being the be-all, end-all, only question that you're voting on,
00:11:40.840 people are being more receptive to the messages of building economic resiliency in this country,
00:11:48.160 so that we're not exclusively dependent on the United States for our own prosperity,
00:11:52.220 looking for new trade partners, increasing our own prosperity through regulatory reform,
00:11:58.320 getting more resources to market, getting them out of the ground,
00:12:00.380 making Canada have the wealthiest middle class, again, like it did back in 2015 when Harper was prime minister.
00:12:08.500 So yes, the issue set is changing.
00:12:11.220 Yes, Trump is still part of the equation.
00:12:13.300 I don't think anyone is saying otherwise.
00:12:16.460 It's just the magnitude and impact that he's having on the individual voters
00:12:19.920 has certainly had a noticeable decrease over the last four weeks.
00:12:24.020 Okay, let's go back to our poll.
00:12:25.460 So like we said off the top, 39-39.
00:12:27.960 Wow, that's close.
00:12:28.700 First of all, how would that translate into seats?
00:12:33.340 Because I'll just go to this.
00:12:35.120 So if you look at the last three elections, the last two elections,
00:12:39.080 in 2021, the final, on election day, the final vote count had the Liberals at 33%,
00:12:45.280 Conservatives at 34%, NDP at 18%, Block at 8%, okay?
00:12:50.000 So that was 2021.
00:12:51.180 2019 had the Liberals at 33%, again, Conservatives again, 34%, NDP at 16%, Block at 8%, and if
00:13:00.820 you go back to 2015 when Justin Trudeau won a huge majority government, one of the biggest
00:13:06.220 majority governments in my lifetime, the Liberal Party finished at 39%.
00:13:11.600 The Conservatives finished at 32%, the NDP at 20%, so 39% is the big majority government for the Liberals, and that is what they're polling at now.
00:13:22.440 Remarkably, the Conservatives are also polling at 39%, so polling higher than they have at any point in the last 10 years, or at any point on election day, higher than the last 10 years, and yet they could still potentially lose the election.
00:13:35.380 Walk us through that, please.
00:13:37.500 Sure.
00:13:37.980 So our seat model, based on all these numbers, has the Liberals winning 175 seats, the Conservatives 130, Black-Québecois at 32%, NDP at 4%, and Greens at 2%.
00:13:49.280 So this would actually, despite both being tied at 39%, result in a Liberal-majority government, and the reason for that is the complete collapse of the NDP.
00:14:01.540 Like, Jagmeet Singh is not even going to win his seat in this model, and even the public models, like what JP Fournier at 338 has, is saying the exact same thing.
00:14:10.880 Like, this is a very different election compared to anything we've ever seen before.
00:14:16.180 Wow.
00:14:16.800 I mean, it's so mind-boggling, David, to imagine the Conservatives could get 39% of the votes and still not even get, not even hold the Liberals to a minority.
00:14:26.640 That it could be 39% and a Liberal majority.
00:14:29.700 I think there would be some kind of a revolt on our hands if that happens.
00:14:32.780 Like, Conservative voters would be very unhappy if that were the case.
00:14:36.520 Let's go to the regions here, because this is super interesting.
00:14:39.300 At one point, I believe we had the, Ontario had like a 10-point lead for the Liberals.
00:14:44.440 They've all but closed that up.
00:14:45.680 So let's walk through the different regions, starting with Ontario.
00:14:48.720 Actually, with Ontario, three weeks ago, we had it at a 14-point Liberal lead.
00:14:52.440 Then it was an 8-point lead.
00:14:54.480 Then it was last week, it was a 4-point lead.
00:14:56.620 Now it is a 1-point lead.
00:14:58.800 We're seeing a major shift.
00:15:00.940 And actually, when you look at the change from last week, it's not that we're gaining support.
00:15:05.440 It's that the Liberals are losing support directly to the NDP with these numbers.
00:15:09.100 So the Liberals would actually be down 3 points compared to last week with the NDP up 2 and the Greens up 1 as well.
00:15:15.780 On to Quebec.
00:15:16.600 This is also very interesting.
00:15:17.740 The Conservatives would be at 25%, Liberals at 34%, and the Bloc Québécois at 34%.
00:15:23.740 So this actually represents, compared to last week, a 6-point increase for the Conservatives.
00:15:30.280 This is actually quite a substantial change, minus 1 and minus 1 for Bloc Québécois and Liberals, respectively.
00:15:38.560 But we also see a decline in the other third parties, which is actually what's bolstering the Conservative rise.
00:15:45.620 The other region that we're actually seeing some significant movement in is actually Atlantic Canada, where the Liberals would today get 51% of the vote, Conservatives 33%, and the NDP get 11%.
00:15:59.620 Now the change in that is the Conservatives actually gained 6 points compared to this time last week, and the Liberals would lose 4%, and the Greens would actually lose 3%.
00:16:08.620 Would that still be a Liberal sweep of Atlantic Canada, or would that mean that the Conservatives would possibly pick up seats in that region?
00:16:16.860 So in Atlantic Canada, this would actually result in 7 seats, which would actually be the status quo.
00:16:22.460 For the Conservatives.
00:16:23.220 Okay, let's move on to the Prairies and B.C. 0.77
00:16:25.660 So in the Prairies, we're seeing the Conservatives sit at 54%, the Liberals at 33%, and the NDP at 8%.
00:16:36.420 So this change actually shows 4-point gain for the Liberals and a 1-point decline for the Conservatives.
00:16:45.160 Also, other parties are down by 3 points as well.
00:16:47.700 And in British Columbia, we're seeing the Liberals take the lead with 40% of the vote, Conservatives getting 36%, and NDP getting 15%.
00:16:57.980 Now the change here is the Liberals actually gain 7%, the NDP lose 7%, and the Conservatives lose 3% based on this.
00:17:05.260 Interesting.
00:17:05.840 It's interesting because I have seen some regional polls.
00:17:08.020 There's not a lot of riding polls that come out during elections, probably because the sample size is so small, it's so hard to get those accurate.
00:17:13.840 I'm talking about Vancouver Island North, I think Powell River is the name of the riding.
00:17:18.780 It's where our friend Aaron Gunn is the Conservative candidate.
00:17:22.060 There have been heavy efforts to cancel Aaron Gunn for taking rather mainstream positions in, like, defending Sir John A. MacDonald, the founding Prime Minister of our country.
00:17:30.880 And yet, despite the attempts to cancel him, I've seen a poll, I think, that has him polling above 50% in his riding.
00:17:37.160 So, if there is silver lining on this campaign, even if the Conservatives don't form a government, I think that having really strong new MPs, people like Aaron Gunn,
00:17:47.500 like Andrew Lawton, who used to work at True North and is a long-time independent journalist, looks like he's going to win his riding as well.
00:17:55.080 So, that might be a bit of silver lining.
00:17:57.640 Okay, I want to talk about the two other questions that we asked in this poll.
00:18:02.340 The first was on the debate and whether or not it had an impact at all.
00:18:06.380 So, let me just go through what we found.
00:18:08.800 So, 27% of people said that they supported a party before the debate, that they watched the debate, the debate had no impact on their support.
00:18:17.740 So, they were going in a Conservative, watched the debate, still support Pierre Polyev, still going to vote Pierre Polyev.
00:18:23.420 25% of people said that they supported a party before the debate and that the debate made them increase their support for their own party.
00:18:32.380 So, again, that would be like, I like Conservatives, I thought Pierre did great, I'm even more likely to go vote for the Conservatives.
00:18:38.180 This is where it gets interesting, though.
00:18:39.800 3% of people said that they supported a party before the debates and the debates made them change their support.
00:18:45.400 And another 3% said that they were undecided before the debates and that the debates made them choose which party that they supported.
00:18:52.920 And then 6%, or sorry, 32% said they didn't watch the debate at all.
00:18:56.780 So, that might seem like really small and insignificant, 3%, 3%.
00:19:01.220 But when an election is this close, like 3% will shift the entire campaign, will shift the entire campaign.
00:19:09.200 Well, one party could win a majority or minority based on a shift of just 3%.
00:19:14.140 So, really, really kind of telling in my perspective.
00:19:17.120 What did you think of that question and those responses?
00:19:19.540 I think it's also important to, if we zoom in on this on like a gender and age lens as well,
00:19:25.240 I think it's also important to say that that 3% actually grows, especially among young people.
00:19:32.300 You see them going in and they have an opinion about what party they support.
00:19:37.180 They watch the debate.
00:19:37.900 They either switch their vote or they become undecided.
00:19:42.380 So, regardless of what the actual end outcome is, they're getting pried away from the existing party that they supported.
00:19:51.580 And this is also interesting because if you actually compare that to ballot, for males between the ages of 18 and 34 compared to last week,
00:19:57.820 we saw a 10-point decrease in support for the Liberals, which would back this up.
00:20:02.360 For females 18 to 34, we see a 2% decrease for the Liberals, also a 2% decrease for the NDP as well.
00:20:11.260 It's also notable for the males 18 to 34 that the Conservatives and the NDP both increased.
00:20:18.480 Three for the Conservatives and four for the NDP.
00:20:22.360 Well, that's interesting.
00:20:23.300 I think that that really just goes to show that, you know, even though the debates did happen late, I wish that they'd happen sooner.
00:20:29.000 I wish that there was more debates.
00:20:30.000 There should have been like five or six.
00:20:31.040 They should have let the independent media have our own debate.
00:20:33.380 Then they wouldn't have had to complain about the fact that we got to ask questions at the leaders commission, the government one.
00:20:40.240 But I think that, you know, this election is really being fought at those small margins.
00:20:44.780 And I think it did have an impact.
00:20:47.500 Okay, final question for you here, David.
00:20:49.400 Let's talk about our neighbor poll.
00:20:50.700 I'm so glad we did this.
00:20:51.660 This is one of the things that Juno News did.
00:20:53.540 I don't think I saw any other pollsters doing this campaign.
00:20:56.980 And if it turns out that the Conservatives do win this election or perform above expectations,
00:21:04.160 I think that we can really point to our neighbor poll to show how we were able to put our finger on something
00:21:09.980 that no other polling company or no other media outlet in the country was able to do.
00:21:13.940 So why don't you walk us through the final neighbor poll?
00:21:17.640 Sure.
00:21:18.100 So net of those that said they don't know how their neighbors are voting,
00:21:21.740 we found that the top line, 40% believe their neighbors are supporting the Conservatives,
00:21:26.960 38% believe their neighbors are supporting the Liberals,
00:21:29.720 and 11% believe that their neighbors are supporting the New Democrats.
00:21:34.160 Wow.
00:21:34.640 So again, this shows like people in their neighborhood, people like what kind of signs are you seeing?
00:21:39.840 What are people saying when you bump into them at school pickup or school drop-off
00:21:43.680 or around the water cooler at work or wherever it happens?
00:21:47.080 I think this does really show that there are more people interested in voting for the Conservative
00:21:52.200 than the polls pick up on.
00:21:54.460 What do you think?
00:21:55.460 Yeah, I think that that's a very fair assessment.
00:21:57.280 It's also interesting when you break this down,
00:21:59.840 like in the region that actually moved the most out of all of this is actually British Columbia,
00:22:04.320 because the difference, remember, in the ballot question,
00:22:07.400 we actually had the Liberals leading the Conservatives.
00:22:10.560 When you ask the neighbor question,
00:22:12.520 44% of British Columbians believe that their neighbors are voting for the Conservatives
00:22:16.320 compared to 30% for the Liberals and 22% for the New Democrats.
00:22:20.540 What's also very interesting is also when you break out the prairies as well.
00:22:24.680 So the original ballot question was 54% for the Conservatives.
00:22:33.180 However, that shoots up to 65% in the prairies when they ask about their neighbor
00:22:37.940 compared to 22% for the Liberals and 10% for the NDP.
00:22:42.880 So interesting.
00:22:43.760 Okay, well, David, we have one final interview that we're going to do later this week
00:22:47.960 where we are going to go through, and this is going to be like nerding out really like for the data nerds
00:22:55.320 and the people who really like to do these kind of election predictions.
00:23:00.380 We're going to talk about the specific writings that Polyev needs to win.
00:23:04.140 Like what would it look like?
00:23:05.300 Where in the country are their final efforts going?
00:23:08.880 Where, which are the writings that will determine election?
00:23:11.200 And it'll be a very good guide for anyone who plans to watch the election night.
00:23:15.120 I'm going to plug our election live stream on election night.
00:23:18.440 Don't watch the CBC on election night.
00:23:20.060 Don't give them your eyeballs.
00:23:21.460 Don't watch the CTV or Global.
00:23:23.760 They're all biased.
00:23:24.560 They all hate Conservatives.
00:23:25.800 Watch us on YouTube.
00:23:27.440 Myself, Kian Bexie, we have lots of special guests.
00:23:29.640 We're going to have our own decision desk.
00:23:30.800 We're going to have a lot of production value there.
00:23:33.320 So I want to talk about the writings to watch, like early in the night, how we know which
00:23:38.380 directions is going, when the polls close in Atlantic Canada, which seats are we going
00:23:42.820 to be looking at?
00:23:43.620 We're going to go through that all.
00:23:44.980 So watch out for that later in the week.
00:23:46.700 And I do hope that you will join us for election night.
00:23:49.000 It's going to be a lot of fun as well.
00:23:51.140 All right, David Murray, thanks so much for joining us.
00:23:52.840 I look forward to our final talk later in the week.
00:23:55.180 Take care.
00:23:56.400 All right, folks, that's all the time we have for today.
00:23:58.340 We'll be back again tomorrow with all the news.
00:24:00.100 I'm Candice Malcolm's Candice Malcolm Show.
00:24:01.800 Thank you and God bless.
00:24:03.320 Thank you.