The final exclusive poll from Juno Polls shows a dead heat in the race between the Tories and Liberals at 39% and 39%. Candice talks with David Murray, our in-house pollster for the campaign, about how the polls have shifted over the course of the campaign and why the race is so close.
00:00:30.000Hi, I'm Candace Malcolm, and this is the Candace Malcolm Show.
00:00:36.080So one of the things that we have done for you at Juno News is we have provided our own polls throughout the election campaign.
00:00:42.840I don't trust the legacy media. I don't trust their polls.
00:00:46.280And so for that reason, we decided to hire one of the best polling companies in the country to do our own polls.
00:00:52.160We did things differently. One of the key things that we did differently is that we asked a neighbor poll.
00:00:56.640So we asked Canadians who they think their neighbor is voting for, which really helped us understand where the momentum was, right?
00:01:03.180Like, what are people saying in coffee shops? What are people saying around the dinner table?
00:01:06.540How many signs are you seeing? What's happening in your neighborhood?
00:01:10.080And what the neighbor poll has shown throughout this campaign is that the conservatives are winning.
00:01:15.060So contrary to the legacy media, their idea that the liberals have had this huge lead throughout the campaign, our polls have said something different.
00:01:22.800Today, we have the final exclusive poll from Juno polls, and it shows a dead heat, folks.
00:01:29.58039-39. This is going to be an incredibly close election.
00:01:34.600It will all come down to Election Day and who has the better ground game, who has more volunteers, who has more enthusiasm in getting their voters to the polls to vote for the candidate.
00:01:47.700And it is just incredibly important that everybody who can gets out there and volunteers and helps if you want change in this country.
00:01:55.840So to talk about this poll, go through line by line what the poll found.
00:02:00.840I'm pleased to be joined by David Murray. David has been our in-house pollster for the campaign.
00:02:05.700He is an executive at One Persuade, which is a polling company in Ontario.
00:03:34.320Actually, I was telling this to my producer.
00:03:36.100He used to work with me at the Sun News Network.
00:03:38.520So way back at the very beginning of his career and my career, he was a young pollster at Sun News Network,
00:03:44.420which means that he's not, you know, if he's willing to work at Sun, he's not totally in the bag for the left.
00:03:48.760He has a very interesting perspective here.
00:03:52.360I want to show a tweet or a post on X that he wrote.
00:03:55.240He wrote this question, first of all, to go from a 15-point liberal lead a month ago to a 2.1 today is pretty remarkable.
00:04:04.860If you believe this, then you have to believe that, one, the liberals have run a horrible campaign,
00:04:09.560and, two, the conservatives have won an amazing campaign.
00:04:12.300So you can tell that there's some sort of skepticism in this idea, capturing the same thing that our poll captured,
00:04:17.920which was that almost all the pollsters don't see this.
00:04:20.900You know, a month ago, they had Carney up as much as 15 points, which I don't really believe, to just, you know, for them, it's a two-point lead for the Libs.
00:05:41.800I think that there was a point at the campaign where the legacy media and all of the fancy people and all of the elites in Canada were saying,
00:05:50.060elbows up, elbows up, folks, we have to bring in the liberals again to protect us from Donald Trump.
00:05:56.080And that was sort of like the zeitgeist, the overwhelming, almost like COVID-level groupthink that was being pushed on Canadians.
00:06:02.940And many of them kind of just went along with it, even though they didn't really believe it,
00:06:06.920even though in their heart of hearts they still wanted change, they wanted something different,
00:06:10.780they believed that it's time for a new government, a new party.
00:06:13.940And so their intentions were always to vote conservative, but they told pollsters that they were part of the elbows up crowd,
00:06:22.760And so that is why, sort of reading between the lines, I believe that's what David Coletto is saying,
00:06:28.460which shows that even the pollsters themselves that are conducting these polls don't believe that the liberals actually held that level of lead.
00:12:51.1802019 had the Liberals at 33%, again, Conservatives again, 34%, NDP at 16%, Block at 8%, and if
00:13:00.820you go back to 2015 when Justin Trudeau won a huge majority government, one of the biggest
00:13:06.220majority governments in my lifetime, the Liberal Party finished at 39%.
00:13:11.600The Conservatives finished at 32%, the NDP at 20%, so 39% is the big majority government for the Liberals, and that is what they're polling at now.
00:13:22.440Remarkably, the Conservatives are also polling at 39%, so polling higher than they have at any point in the last 10 years, or at any point on election day, higher than the last 10 years, and yet they could still potentially lose the election.
00:13:49.280So this would actually, despite both being tied at 39%, result in a Liberal-majority government, and the reason for that is the complete collapse of the NDP.
00:14:01.540Like, Jagmeet Singh is not even going to win his seat in this model, and even the public models, like what JP Fournier at 338 has, is saying the exact same thing.
00:14:10.880Like, this is a very different election compared to anything we've ever seen before.
00:14:16.800I mean, it's so mind-boggling, David, to imagine the Conservatives could get 39% of the votes and still not even get, not even hold the Liberals to a minority.
00:14:26.640That it could be 39% and a Liberal majority.
00:14:29.700I think there would be some kind of a revolt on our hands if that happens.
00:14:32.780Like, Conservative voters would be very unhappy if that were the case.
00:14:36.520Let's go to the regions here, because this is super interesting.
00:14:39.300At one point, I believe we had the, Ontario had like a 10-point lead for the Liberals.
00:15:38.560But we also see a decline in the other third parties, which is actually what's bolstering the Conservative rise.
00:15:45.620The other region that we're actually seeing some significant movement in is actually Atlantic Canada, where the Liberals would today get 51% of the vote, Conservatives 33%, and the NDP get 11%.
00:15:59.620Now the change in that is the Conservatives actually gained 6 points compared to this time last week, and the Liberals would lose 4%, and the Greens would actually lose 3%.
00:16:08.620Would that still be a Liberal sweep of Atlantic Canada, or would that mean that the Conservatives would possibly pick up seats in that region?
00:16:16.860So in Atlantic Canada, this would actually result in 7 seats, which would actually be the status quo.
00:17:05.840It's interesting because I have seen some regional polls.
00:17:08.020There's not a lot of riding polls that come out during elections, probably because the sample size is so small, it's so hard to get those accurate.
00:17:13.840I'm talking about Vancouver Island North, I think Powell River is the name of the riding.
00:17:18.780It's where our friend Aaron Gunn is the Conservative candidate.
00:17:22.060There have been heavy efforts to cancel Aaron Gunn for taking rather mainstream positions in, like, defending Sir John A. MacDonald, the founding Prime Minister of our country.
00:17:30.880And yet, despite the attempts to cancel him, I've seen a poll, I think, that has him polling above 50% in his riding.
00:17:37.160So, if there is silver lining on this campaign, even if the Conservatives don't form a government, I think that having really strong new MPs, people like Aaron Gunn,
00:17:47.500like Andrew Lawton, who used to work at True North and is a long-time independent journalist, looks like he's going to win his riding as well.
00:17:55.080So, that might be a bit of silver lining.
00:17:57.640Okay, I want to talk about the two other questions that we asked in this poll.
00:18:02.340The first was on the debate and whether or not it had an impact at all.
00:18:06.380So, let me just go through what we found.
00:18:08.800So, 27% of people said that they supported a party before the debate, that they watched the debate, the debate had no impact on their support.
00:18:17.740So, they were going in a Conservative, watched the debate, still support Pierre Polyev, still going to vote Pierre Polyev.
00:18:23.42025% of people said that they supported a party before the debate and that the debate made them increase their support for their own party.
00:18:32.380So, again, that would be like, I like Conservatives, I thought Pierre did great, I'm even more likely to go vote for the Conservatives.
00:18:38.180This is where it gets interesting, though.
00:18:39.8003% of people said that they supported a party before the debates and the debates made them change their support.
00:18:45.400And another 3% said that they were undecided before the debates and that the debates made them choose which party that they supported.
00:18:52.920And then 6%, or sorry, 32% said they didn't watch the debate at all.
00:18:56.780So, that might seem like really small and insignificant, 3%, 3%.
00:19:01.220But when an election is this close, like 3% will shift the entire campaign, will shift the entire campaign.
00:19:09.200Well, one party could win a majority or minority based on a shift of just 3%.
00:19:14.140So, really, really kind of telling in my perspective.
00:19:17.120What did you think of that question and those responses?
00:19:19.540I think it's also important to, if we zoom in on this on like a gender and age lens as well,
00:19:25.240I think it's also important to say that that 3% actually grows, especially among young people.
00:19:32.300You see them going in and they have an opinion about what party they support.
00:19:37.900They either switch their vote or they become undecided.
00:19:42.380So, regardless of what the actual end outcome is, they're getting pried away from the existing party that they supported.
00:19:51.580And this is also interesting because if you actually compare that to ballot, for males between the ages of 18 and 34 compared to last week,
00:19:57.820we saw a 10-point decrease in support for the Liberals, which would back this up.
00:20:02.360For females 18 to 34, we see a 2% decrease for the Liberals, also a 2% decrease for the NDP as well.
00:20:11.260It's also notable for the males 18 to 34 that the Conservatives and the NDP both increased.
00:20:18.480Three for the Conservatives and four for the NDP.