The Candice Malcolm Show - June 30, 2025


Carney CAVES to Trump + new EXCLUSIVE poll shows tight federal race

Topics
wealthsimple carbon tax trade war Alberta election trade talks CRTC regulations and taxes
Hosted by
Candice Malcolm
Mentioned
Brian Lilly Donald Trump Mark Carney Hamish Marshall Trudeau Biden David Coletto Sam Harris Andrew Scheer Pierre Poilievre Hamilton Bitcoin Marie Nanos Juno
Vancouver’s insane new “decolonized” street name + new census questions on sexual orientation Liberals push SCARY new censorship laws

Episode Stats


Length

21 minutes

Words per minute

172.9

Word count

3,747

Sentence count

302

Harmful content

Misogyny

2

sentences flagged

Toxicity

9

sentences flagged

Hate speech

2

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

The Canadian government wants to impose a new tax on Amazon, Netflix, and other U.S. digital services companies based in Canada. Will they be able to afford it? Or will they have to pay the price?

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Misogyny classifications generated with MilaNLProc/bert-base-uncased-ear-misogyny .
Toxicity classifications generated with s-nlp/roberta_toxicity_classifier .
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
Topics generated with Qwen2.5-3B-Instruct.
Hosts, guests, and mentioned names generated with spaCy (en_core_web_sm), reconciled against Wikidata.
00:00:00.000 Welcome to the Candace Malcolm Show here on Juneau. My name is Chris Sims. I'm the Alberta Director for the Canadian Taxpayers Federation. Thank you so much for joining me as I'm filling in for Candace over the summer on Mondays.
00:00:14.840 Now, it's actually a pretty newsy Monday for the day between Sunday and July 1st, Canada Day, for those who celebrate. Now, interestingly, we had this trade war go on again and off again between last night, Sunday night, and today.
00:00:33.060 So here's what happened. U.S. President Donald Trump already had indicated that the digital services tax was a huge burr under his saddle. For those who don't know what that is, it's basically a tax imposed by the Canadian federal government on online and digital services companies emanating from the United States.
00:00:53.760 So if they earned more than $20 million with an M, they would then be taxed on that within Canada. But here's the catch. It was retroactive back a few years, and it was going to cost those companies billions of dollars. So that was not going to fly.
00:01:11.160 And for those who were saying, oh, well, here's Trump at it again, being mercurial. Actually, the Biden administration had a huge problem with this thing as well. They even had a special panel on this thing saying the digital services tax is unfair on our American companies, and we're not going to stand for it, Canada. So fix it.
00:01:30.100 Here's the thing. Newly elected Prime Minister Mark Carney could have been the big hero of this story, because he could have made the very popular announcement saying, you know what? That was the previous government. That was the previous Prime Minister. I'm not into taxing your Netflix. I don't need to be up in your business taxing Amazon or Uber. Because here's the thing. Amazon would not eat this cost. Uber wouldn't eat this cost.
00:01:59.520 Same goes for things like Spotify and Netflix. Ultimately, that cost would be passed down to us, to Canadian taxpayers. How much money? The federal government in Canada was planning on raking in around $6 billion over the next few years. So a billion-ish dollars per year on this thing. That's nothing to sneeze at.
00:02:23.720 And so ultimately, it would be the strapped taxpayers, again, who would have to pay extra fees. And before you start thinking, oh, well, this is just for entertainment, you know, isn't Netflix a luxury?
00:02:35.560 Number one, nearly half of what we make is already taken by various levels of government through taxes and fees and whatever levies, whatever euphemisms they want to tax on to a tax. It's a tax. So already about half of what you're supposed to be paid is going to various levels of government. So government can back off.
00:02:58.400 Number two, this was very personal for people, right? What you choose to listen to through your streaming services can be something super enlightening. It could make you feel better at the end of the day. It could be Netflix where you're spending time with your loved ones. All of those things.
00:03:14.160 What you're listening to and consuming for entertainment and news in some cases is a very personal choice. But here goes the government getting right up in your grill and saying, where's mine? All the time. But it wasn't just for entertainment and news. This would have affected companies like Uber, which of course provides driving services with an app. There's the digital service part. See what they're doing there?
00:03:38.440 This would affect a lot of people, not just, you know, everyday business commuters, but also seniors that don't drive anymore. So you're going to be taxing grandma for taking an Uber down to her knee appointment. Good job, guys. But here's where it gets ridiculous.
00:03:54.620 Carney, this is an own goal for Carney. Carney could have seen this mess coming and avoided it earlier. At the end of the day, he had to eat a lot of crow on a Sunday night and back down to Trump. So this is going to cause a lot of tittering going through the Canadian media. Ultimately, this is a good news story because it means taxpayers and people who use these services won't have to pay for this. But going forward, pro tip for Prime Minister Mark Carney. 0.57
00:04:24.620 The other thing you announced just before the last election was the carbon tax tariff, meaning a tariff, an import tariff, put on things coming in from countries that don't have national carbon taxes.
00:04:39.660 Investing is all about the future. So what do you think is going to happen?
00:04:43.800 Bitcoin is sort of inevitable at this point.
00:04:46.260 I think it would come down to precious metals.
00:04:48.860 I hope we don't go cashless.
00:04:50.700 I would say land is a safe investment.
00:04:53.520 Technology companies.
00:04:54.620 Solar energy.
00:04:55.620 Robotic pollinators might be a thing. 1.00
00:04:58.300 A wrestler to face a robot.
00:05:00.000 That will have to happen.
00:05:01.580 So whatever you think is going to happen in the future, you can invest in it at Wealthsimple.
00:05:07.320 Start now at Wealthsimple.com.
00:05:09.920 Can you think of a country we trade with that doesn't have a national carbon tax?
00:05:14.160 The United States.
00:05:15.360 So if the digital services tax cost taxpayers or was about to cost taxpayers an arm and a leg and cause a trade war, what does Carney think his carbon tax import tariff on American stuff is going to trigger?
00:05:32.420 And U.S. President Donald Trump once he gets wind of this.
00:05:35.640 So pro tip, use this Netflix tax as a teachable moment for yourself and scrap the carbon tax tariff before this also blows up into a trade war.
00:05:47.360 We've got so much to talk about.
00:05:49.500 We've got new polling data that has come out.
00:05:52.260 We've got all sorts of cool stuff.
00:05:54.180 There's also an announcement about the by-election actually happening in Alberta for realsies.
00:05:59.720 So much to talk about.
00:06:01.400 And we've got a great guest for that.
00:06:03.240 Joining me will be Brian Lilly from the Toronto Sun.
00:06:06.280 What does he think about all this?
00:06:07.800 Let's find out.
00:06:08.560 Joining me now from Saskatchewan is Brian Lilly.
00:06:11.860 Brian, of course, is a Toronto Sun columnist, longtime member of the Parliamentary Press Gallery back in the day, good friend of mine, and host of the Full Comment podcast, which I strongly recommend people listen to.
00:06:26.920 Insider Baseball, but it's one of the very few I would describe as mainstream podcasts in Canada that I listen to.
00:06:32.620 It's definitely worth it.
00:06:33.720 Don't miss it.
00:06:34.480 Brian, thank you for taking time at your undisclosed location compound bunker in Saskatchewan.
00:06:40.800 I'm at the outdoor bunker in Saskatoon, hiding out, yes.
00:06:45.480 I'm in Lethbridge, and there's really, like, I can almost see you from my house because, you know, there's nothing in between us right now.
00:06:51.720 Brian, I wanted to get your take on this enormous reversal coming from Ottawa, coming from Prime Minister Mark Carney, on the digital services tax.
00:07:01.340 My, my, how reality has bitten him.
00:07:03.800 What was your take on this? 1.00
00:07:05.500 We look like idiots. 1.00
00:07:08.080 Carney could have looked like a strong leader if he had done the right thing last week. 1.00
00:07:14.880 Instead, he did the wrong thing.
00:07:16.240 The digital services tax, by the way, it was passed in June 2024, took effect then, and with the rule that it would kick in on June 30th, 2025, but be retroactive to 2022.
00:07:33.420 So the Americans have always had problems with this.
00:07:36.100 The Biden administration had started a trade dispute panel over this.
00:07:40.700 They say it violates Articles 14.4 and Article 15.3 of the Canada-U.S.-Mexico trade agreement.
00:07:48.380 So they say, we're in violation.
00:07:50.200 We keep complaining that the tariffs that they're putting in are a violation of the trade agreement.
00:07:55.520 Well, guess what?
00:07:56.120 So is this.
00:07:57.240 And we're in the middle of negotiations to try and get those tariffs lifted.
00:08:01.120 And they said, give us a 30-day pause on implementing your digital services tax.
00:08:06.460 And they said, no, we're going ahead with it.
00:08:09.480 We decide what taxes will be in Canada, not you.
00:08:13.040 And they said, all right, trade talks are off.
00:08:15.220 All they had to do was say, we're suspending this.
00:08:18.300 We're going to put it off while we negotiate in good faith.
00:08:21.100 So the Americans canceled the trade talks.
00:08:23.280 And at 10.06 p.m. Ottawa time, on a Sunday night, they announced they're not just going to pause the implementation of the tax.
00:08:32.720 They're going to rescind it.
00:08:33.960 They, how weak does that make us look?
00:08:38.380 Carney, as I said, could have looked like the big man, like a good negotiator last week.
00:08:42.840 Now he looks like Trump's puppet.
00:08:45.120 Now the elbows up crowd are still going to love it because he can reverse himself on any number of things.
00:08:50.240 And they're just going to love it.
00:08:51.480 It's like the elbows up crowd have replaced the Truanon crowd. 1.00
00:08:55.480 Dear leader can do no wrong.
00:08:57.240 I'm trying to give this guy the benefit of the doubt.
00:08:59.620 He's our prime minister.
00:09:01.080 We're in a trade negotiation.
00:09:03.140 We have to cheer for Canada.
00:09:05.060 But to continue to cheer for him, he's got to be doing good things.
00:09:10.060 This is like cheering for your favorite hockey team when they score on their own net.
00:09:14.560 You wouldn't do that.
00:09:16.100 That's a great analogy.
00:09:17.160 It's like, oh, well, at least he still scored.
00:09:19.140 What have you done lately on the ice?
00:09:21.000 It's like, come on, guys.
00:09:22.420 And to your point, Brian, this was obviously going to be a problem.
00:09:27.620 Like the Biden administration had a problem with this.
00:09:30.480 This wasn't a couple of bucks.
00:09:32.180 This was going to cost major American companies billions of dollars.
00:09:37.520 So the retroactive payment, Chris, depending on who you listen to, was between two and three billion.
00:09:43.100 And then it was going to be a billion dollars a year.
00:09:45.560 In the grand scheme of things, that is not a whole lot of money for the federal government.
00:09:51.440 They spend more than 450 billion.
00:09:54.260 No, actually more than 500 billion a year.
00:09:56.980 So this is not a lot of money for the federal government.
00:10:02.740 They didn't need to do this and they didn't need the cash right now.
00:10:06.500 They could have put this off.
00:10:08.480 But by not putting it off, by throwing the trade talks into disarray, all of those jobs in the auto sector, in manufacturing, in what are the other ones?
00:10:20.280 In steel, in aluminum.
00:10:22.420 You know, so think of where we've got steel plants.
00:10:25.260 We've got them outside Montreal.
00:10:27.080 We've got them in Hamilton, in Sault Ste.
00:10:29.040 Marie, in Regina, in Edmonton.
00:10:31.640 And then there's processors all over the place in smaller capacities.
00:10:35.320 But those are the big steel plants.
00:10:37.000 They're spread across the country.
00:10:38.160 All those jobs, all the aluminum jobs, these are all put at risk.
00:10:43.720 And the tariffs remained on.
00:10:46.300 You can't negotiate from a position of strength now.
00:10:49.900 You know, Carney essentially looks like the puppy that rolls over on its back and says, pet my belly.
00:10:54.680 Yeah, yeah.
00:10:56.020 And this is the thing where it threatens so much more.
00:10:58.780 Like, the whole idea of a digital services tax was already bad.
00:11:02.820 But the fact that they fumbled this at the negotiation table at the last minute so poorly speaks volumes about their planning.
00:11:10.040 Like, remember back, we were texting about this during the election.
00:11:13.720 I still can't believe that a trade union, a pipe workers union, endorsed the conservatives, the blue team, federally, over this issue of ongoing tariffs and an industrial carbon tax, saying that the Americans are going to eat our lunch. 0.89
00:11:30.120 And for Carney to be a former central banker on two continents and to have a PhD in economics from Oxford and still kind of make these fumbles at the very last bit at the goal line is pretty surprising.
00:11:43.420 I just wanted to touch on the nature.
00:11:45.260 But just if I can add to that just quickly, we can't forget he also has private sector experience.
00:11:50.400 He was at Goldman Sachs for more than a dozen years doing deals.
00:11:53.440 He was also at Brookfield Asset Management for the last few years doing deals.
00:12:00.120 And I'm sure that he looks at Donald Trump as some real estate huckster from Queens and looks down his nose at him.
00:12:07.440 And he just got beaten by the real estate huckster from Queens.
00:12:11.720 Yeah, I can see what just happened here.
00:12:14.900 I wanted to touch on just the nature of the tax that we just narrowly avoided.
00:12:18.840 I feel this kind of awkward situation where previously when Trump would, you know, wake up out of bed and start tweeting something, it would just, it would cost us money and it would be a big tariff war and be awful.
00:12:29.660 But here we have something that at the end of the day is going to save taxpayers money because in Canada, Netflix was not just going to eat this cost.
00:12:38.020 Amazon was not going to eat this cost.
00:12:39.960 And it went further than just stuff that you're doing on your laptop.
00:12:43.360 This was going to affect things like Uber.
00:12:45.500 Like, there are plenty of seniors who don't drive anymore who now take Uber.
00:12:50.480 They rely on it.
00:12:51.280 So it was all of these so-called digital services that the parliamentary budget officer was estimating was going to take in close to a billion dollars a year in Canada.
00:13:02.080 Now, who's ultimately going to be stuck with the tab?
00:13:05.020 Taxpayers.
00:13:05.820 Because the companies sure as heck weren't going to eat this.
00:13:07.980 But I wanted to point out, I think this annoyed people too, because it's government getting up in your grill and getting up in your personal life.
00:13:16.400 So they wanted to tax you for things like Spotify, for your Amazon purchases, for your Netflix, your time when you're at home and you're trying to unplug from your job and relax.
00:13:27.760 And this isn't the first time.
00:13:29.400 You and I, you know, we go way back. 0.99
00:13:31.060 One of the funnier things I wanted to talk about was stupid taxes that previous governments have done. 0.99
00:13:36.380 This goes back into history. 0.99
00:13:37.960 I forget when it was.
00:13:38.780 It was in the 1600s sometime that the UK had a window tax.
00:13:43.460 They would go along and count how many windows were in one building and then tax people for it.
00:13:48.560 And of course, the knock-on effect was that the urban poor in cities were getting things like typhus and rickets because they were lacking sunshine because they were getting taxed on their windows.
00:14:00.520 Well, people would block them up or cover them up.
00:14:03.160 I remember being in Ireland a few years ago and I'm on a tour and our guide is pointing out some of the great stately homes that at one point you can see they used to have windows all over.
00:14:16.360 You know, we're talking big country manors, but they had so many windows, the tax would be so high that they boarded them up and they still look like that hundreds of years later.
00:14:24.960 It's awful.
00:14:26.860 And I remember them telling us a story about they put in a door tax.
00:14:32.620 And so what they ended up doing was putting in a hole that you went through rather than a door.
00:14:38.340 That's the term a hole in the wall.
00:14:39.680 And people would innovate around that and just say, okay, well, a door is so high and if I don't have a door, then I won't get a tax.
00:14:48.940 And so you would have to get down on your knees and crawl under to get into, say, a pub.
00:14:55.480 You know, so people always find ways around taxes.
00:14:57.720 But this one was especially insidious because it wasn't on income.
00:15:02.540 You know, I've seen the defenders say, oh, so these companies shouldn't have to pay income tax.
00:15:07.540 It's not income tax.
00:15:08.680 It's a revenue tax.
00:15:10.500 So they would figure out or estimate what your revenue within Canada is and then tax that at 3%.
00:15:17.540 And while this is going on, by the way, so this is rescinded for now, but there's a lawsuit from some of these same companies, including Amazon and Netflix, Prime, or sorry, I guess Amazon is Prime, but the streamers are being told by the CRTC that you have to pay a special fee to support local news.
00:15:45.280 I'm all for supporting local news.
00:15:48.340 I happen to work for a still mainstream publication, the Toronto Sun.
00:15:53.520 But I don't want this. 0.94
00:15:55.380 This is ridiculous.
00:15:56.700 They believe that, well, this would actually go to the broadcasters, but they're trying to regulate them as if they're broadcasters. 0.75
00:16:02.980 And when broadcasting started, the government said to the people setting up radio stations and then eventually television stations, look, you're using a public good.
00:16:14.340 You are using the public's airwaves.
00:16:16.980 Therefore, you must provide some public service in the form of news.
00:16:21.400 That was the bargain.
00:16:23.020 But these things are not using public good.
00:16:26.720 They're setting up their own systems and broadcasting to us through their lines or lines that we pay for elsewhere.
00:16:33.920 They should not be having to pay for this.
00:16:36.700 And the CRTC has no ability to impose a tax, but they're claiming it's not a tax, it's a fee, and therefore they can just make this up.
00:16:44.840 So there's a lawsuit going on.
00:16:46.600 What do you think Donald Trump's going to say when he finds out about that one?
00:16:50.560 There are so many, these are all Trudeau-era problems, Trudeau-era mistakes of trying to regulate every part of online life that the Carney government could easily walk away from.
00:17:02.160 And they've chosen not to do it.
00:17:04.260 Thankfully, they're walking away from this.
00:17:05.960 Let's hope they stay away from this.
00:17:07.380 But the online side and the regulations, the fees, the taxes that the Trudeau government wanted to impose has been a major irritant for both parties in the United States.
00:17:21.320 This would have been handled different if Kamala Harris had won instead of Donald Trump. 1.00
00:17:26.360 But they would still have been telling us, you do that and you're going to have trade problems with us.
00:17:30.920 Yeah, big time.
00:17:32.040 Ultimately, it's going to cost consumers money or would have cost consumers a bit, a lot of money here in Canada.
00:17:36.620 And it would irritate and stoke a trade war, which hopefully this element has been neutralized.
00:17:43.120 I will touch on very quickly what you mentioned there with the CRTC and regulations.
00:17:47.880 And yeah, anytime the government makes something you need cost more, that's a tax.
00:17:52.400 It doesn't matter if they call it a levy or a fee or a fruit fly.
00:17:55.420 And it needs to go through Parliament.
00:17:57.200 Yeah, exactly.
00:17:57.800 And it didn't.
00:17:58.400 Thank you.
00:17:59.200 I wanted to quickly get your thoughts.
00:18:01.820 We did have a poll that was exclusive to Juno News by One Persuades.
00:18:06.880 That is Hamish Marshall's outfit.
00:18:08.340 For folks who don't know Hamish Marshall, who's a friend of the program, of course, he's very good at analyzing data down to like the ground level riding, like granular level.
00:18:17.380 Interesting.
00:18:18.360 I don't see much movement.
00:18:19.880 Just generally speaking, when you take a look at national numbers, Liberal Party right now is at 43 percent, down from 44 percent.
00:18:27.380 Conservative Party at 39 percent, down slightly from 41 percent.
00:18:32.100 NDP has resurrected itself by 1 percent.
00:18:35.280 They're at 7 percent, up from 6.
00:18:37.900 I can't believe I'm saying 6 for the NDP.
00:18:40.440 Any quick thoughts, Brian, on what I kind of see as kind of placeholder numbers in the middle of a honeymoon with a new Prime Minister?
00:18:46.220 Yeah, there's there's not much going on.
00:18:48.080 I know Nanos has tried to say that the conservatives are down at 33 percent and Carney's holding his own.
00:18:54.900 And some people try and read too much into that.
00:18:58.780 Hamish's numbers from One Persuades, they're very similar to Abacus data and David Colletto.
00:19:03.900 So anyone that wants to discount and say, well, you know, Hamish helped run Andrew Scheer's campaign.
00:19:09.060 He's a conservative.
00:19:10.260 You know, Abacus and Hamish have essentially very similar numbers.
00:19:15.760 You know, I think the public is giving Mark Carney the benefit of the doubt so far.
00:19:21.180 How he's handled this between Friday and today may change that.
00:19:25.880 But people have been willing to be like me and say, OK, the election's over.
00:19:29.760 He won.
00:19:30.840 You got to hope for the best and hope he can fix things like he's promising.
00:19:35.000 But, you know, I don't think that that means the bottom's falling out for Pierre Polyev and the conservatives.
00:19:42.140 Speaking of which, it is now official.
00:19:43.600 There is going to be a by-election in Alberta in Battle River Crowfoot on August 18th.
00:19:48.360 So the Prime Minister did keep his promise and called it very soon.
00:19:52.260 You'll be able to see that from your compound there in Saskatchewan because there's nothing in between you.
00:19:56.560 Well, I'll be heading out to Calgary soon for Stampede and hope to see a lot of good conservatives out there and get a sense of what's going on in Alberta.
00:20:05.700 All right.
00:20:05.980 They're coming for you, Brian.
00:20:07.080 They're coming for me.
00:20:08.560 Thanks for joining us.
00:20:10.260 So definitely a busy Monday sandwiched between Sunday and Canada Day.
00:20:15.240 Thank you so much for watching.
00:20:16.860 Make sure that you have a great time with your friends and loved ones tomorrow on Canada Day if you're able to take some time out of your busy work schedule.
00:20:25.440 Please enjoy yourself.
00:20:26.760 We get so little sunshine in Canada.
00:20:29.060 I hope you have good weather wherever you are in this country.
00:20:32.180 And for more on what we just talked about with Brian, because there's quite a bit going on, head on over to JunoNews.com.
00:20:39.120 And even better, subscribe.
00:20:41.280 Because then you're going to be getting the real deal.
00:20:44.240 Once again, thank you so much for watching.
00:20:45.840 We'll be back next time.
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