If Trudeau loses this key demographic, it’s over for the Liberals
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Summary
Candice Malcolm explains why Justin Trudeau and the Liberals are losing the 2019 election, and why it's time to flip to the other party. She talks to a woman who voted for Trudeau in 2015, but now wants to vote for the Tories.
Transcript
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Justin Trudeau and the Liberals are losing the selection. I'm going to tell you how.
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I'm Candice Malcolm and this is the Candice Malcolm Show.
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Hi everyone, welcome to the Candice Malcolm Show. Thank you so much for tuning in. As you can see,
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I am live on location in beautiful Vancouver, British Columbia. Look at that. That is the
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North Shore behind me. You can see Stanley Park there and English Bay. Absolutely beautiful,
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beautiful city. And let me tell you, this is a Liberal stronghold. The Liberals typically win
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every single seat in Vancouver proper. And I want to tell you a little bit about some of the
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conversations that I have been having here in Vancouver with friends, with family. If you've
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been tuning into our coverage on the Candice Malcolm Show and here at True North, you'll know
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that we hired an in-house pollster for this election campaign to help us make sense of the numbers,
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to break down all those polls. It can sometimes be confusing and to help us understand what
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demographics the various parties need to go after and need to capture in order to win.
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So yesterday, Hamish and I had this conversation. One of the key demographics that he did talk about
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that the Conservatives managed to win in 2011, that was part of their coalition, that they haven't been
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able to win in the subsequent elections, 2015-2019, is the demographic of women. Basically my demographic.
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So I've got kids at home, women in their 30s, their 40s, and even in their 50s, with kids at home,
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sort of stay-at-home moms or working moms. But that mom demographic is so important.
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Harper was able to capture that. And like I said, Conservatives have, and that is sort of
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Trudeau's stronghold. Well, I want to tell you a little bit about some of the conversations that I
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have been having with people that I know here in Vancouver. So first of all, I'll tell you about one
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woman that was once a reliably and consistent liberal voter. She is, again, in my demographic,
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she's college educated. She has two kids. She's a stay-at-home mom. She voted for Trudeau in 2015,
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voted for Trudeau in 2019. She typically votes green in the provincial election. But having
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conversations with her during this trip, during this visit, I am floored by how anti-Trudeau she
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has been over the issue of the lockdowns. The lockdowns have caused absolutely devastating impacts
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on businesses, on families. The whole idea that the government can order people to stay at home
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and now order people to get vaccines regardless of whatever their personal views on it. Watching
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Trudeau play this divisive game, create these wedge issues has really opened my friend's eyes
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to how divisive the liberals truly are, how basically just unhappy she is with the fact that
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she's voted for this government and how much she wants change. To the point where she was talking
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to me the other day about a strategic vote. She likes Maxime Bernier. She likes the People's
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Party. She likes what she hears from them. But she's so committed to voting Justin Trudeau out of
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office. She was asking me if she should strategically vote for the conservatives in order to do that.
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Usually, folks, usually when we hear about the strategic vote, we're talking about parties on the
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left. So people that would typically be NDP or green voters wanting to vote liberal in order to keep
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the conservatives out. But it's interesting to hear that coin flip and someone who's so dead set on
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getting Trudeau out of office that she would be willing to vote for a conservative. Now, again, I want to
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emphasize how much this person would have never struck me as a conservative voter in the past. I would say
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her values are definitely on the left when it comes to the environment, when it comes to just the basic
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issues that make up a voter. She's always been a voter on the left. But during this pandemic and the way that the
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liberals have acted, it has brought her over to the right. She told me that the liberals are not
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liberal, that they don't act like liberals. They don't promote the values of freedom and rights, the
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whole idea of the Charter. They're not really the party that represent that anymore. And it's interesting
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because for me, I've been saying that for years and years. And it's just so interesting to hear a
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person who was a longtime liberal voter say that. Again, anecdotally, again, I have another person who is in the
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older demographic. This woman is retired. And she was also a longtime liberal voter. I know for a fact
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that she voted for Trudeau in 2015. And again, in 2019, I was talking to this woman yesterday, and she
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told me that she has had enough. And this is a quote of Justin Trudeau and his swarmy ways. She knows that
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there needs to be a change. She said that she likes her local liberal candidate, but she can't bring
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herself to vote liberal again. So if liberals and Justin Trudeau are losing these demographics, women,
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college-educated, both stay-at-home moms and retirees, these are the demographics that Trudeau
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really, really, really needs to win. And these are the demographics that he is losing. And we are
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seeing this in the polls. We are seeing this reflected. So, you know, these are anecdotal
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stories, but there are polls and there is data to back this up. And I think that is why you see a
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very, very desperate Justin Trudeau out on the campaign trail. We've seen him making very vicious
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statements about anti-vaxxers, really pitting Canadians against each other, going with the whole we versus
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them attitude. I'm going to play you a clip right now of Trudeau looking incredibly desperate and
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playing the kind of divisive politics that he used to rally against. He used to cry against. He used
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to talk about how it was the Conservatives that pitted Canadians against each other, the Conservatives
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that dehumanized people that they disagreed with. Well, watch the way that he is talking about
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Canadians who feel uncomfortable getting vaccinated. So the folks out there tonight shouting,
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the anti-vaxxers, they're wrong. They are wrong about how we get through this pandemic.
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And more than just being wrong, because everyone's entitled to their opinions, they are putting at risk
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their own kids. And they're putting at risk our kids as well. That's why we've been unequivocal.
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If you want to get on a plane or a train in the coming months, you're going to have to be fully
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vaccinated. So families with their kids don't have to worry that someone is going to be put them in
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danger in the seat next to them or across the aisle. And we know that the way to get through this as
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well is to make sure that people can go into non-essential businesses and feel safe that they're
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not going to catch COVID from someone next to them. And that means we're going to work with provinces
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and territories who want to move forward on vaccination certifications, on vaccination
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passports, so that everyone can be safe. And what's more, the federal government has announced
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we're going to pay for the development of those privileges that you get once you get vaccinated,
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because everyone needs to get vaccinated. And those people are putting us all at risk.
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And Aaron O'Toole is siding with them instead of with Canadians who did their part and stepped up.
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He's talking about personal choice. What about my choice to keep my kids safe?
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What about our choices to make sure we're getting through this pandemic as quickly as we can?
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That's the choice we've all made. Canadians have shown it in being there for each other.
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And I am not going to back down no matter how many of them show up to try and shout us down
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from what I know to be true, what science tells us, what Canadians have told me, which is people are
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willing to do their part to get through this pandemic. And that's what we will do together.
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Sunny ways. I mean, seriously, this is a prime minister who used to campaign on having a positive
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vision for Canada, being happy-go-lucky, and again, uniting Canadians. And just look at that.
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That doesn't look like a leader who is winning a campaign. That doesn't look like a prime minister
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who is uniting a country. That looks like a desperate man who knows that he is losing.
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And that's why we saw the Liberals push out their policy platform today to try to distract
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from the news cycle, distract from the fact that they allowed a candidate to run,
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even though they have known sexual assault abuses. The fact that the whole wedge issue
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around the unvaccinated doesn't really hold up. Or the fact that Aaron O'Toole is actually
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kind of popular among Canadians. Canadians didn't really know very much about Aaron O'Toole.
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The assumption was that he wasn't going to be able to appeal to them. But the polls are really
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reflecting that people like what they see in Aaron O'Toole. He seems like a moderate guy.
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He seems like a bit of a policy wonk, a bit of a nerd, a family-oriented man, a man that served in the
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military, that really loves his country. And that's providing quite a contrast from Justin Trudeau.
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So it is really interesting to see this all play out. Again, if Trudeau loses places like Vancouver,
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loses voters like the people that I was talking about today, he is in very, very big trouble.
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And I think that we could see a very surprising outcome on the September 20th election.
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Thank you so much for tuning in. I'm Candace Malcolm and this is The Candace Malcolm Show.