The Candice Malcolm Show - It’s make or break for Erin O’Toole today in caucus today

00:00:00.680 It's make or break for Erin O'Toole today in caucus, plus we'll deconstruct a red Tory's defense of Erin O'Toole. 1.00

00:00:06.600 I'm Candace Malcolm and this is The Candace Malcolm Show.

00:00:13.560 Hi everyone, thank you so much for tuning into The Candace Malcolm Show.

00:00:16.920 Today is a big day for Erin O'Toole and the Conservative Party of Canada,

00:00:20.960 and we'll break that all down and explain what's going on and what is at stake.

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00:01:13.020 So thank you so much for that.

00:01:14.820 So it's happening right now in Ottawa.

00:01:16.360 The Conservative Caucus is meeting for its first caucus meeting since the election on September 20th,

00:01:21.740 since the disappointing election.

00:01:23.120 So we have all the incoming and outgoing MPs.

00:01:26.600 There's nine MPs who lost, nine Conservative MPs who lost, plus I think 119 who got elected or re-elected.

00:01:34.240 And so they're all in Ottawa.

00:01:35.460 They're all in a room right now.

00:01:36.860 And from what I understand, it is intense.

00:01:40.140 They really are fighting for the heart and soul of the party.

00:01:43.500 I went through yesterday explaining sort of an insider's take after talking to a couple of MPs,

00:01:49.400 explaining what was going on.

00:01:50.300 So if you want to go back and get a better understanding of what happens at caucus and what's at stake,

00:01:54.560 check out yesterday's episode.

00:01:56.500 Today, I mean, right now we don't know what's happening because they're still in the room.

00:01:59.900 They're locked up.

00:02:00.740 We're going to have to wait until the meetings end to really get a better sense of what happened.

00:02:05.460 But there is a lot of speculation, a lot of rumors being pushed out,

00:02:09.500 a lot of journalists speaking to their sources, their sources telling them X, Y, or Z.

00:02:14.980 And so we sort of have like a mixed understanding of what might be going on.

00:02:19.540 So I want to highlight a couple of the interesting scoops that I did see on social media,

00:02:23.700 and I will give you my reaction.

00:02:25.480 So first we have Evan Solomon over at CTV.

00:02:28.220 He writes this.

00:02:28.920 He says,

00:02:29.260 Scooplet, today Conservative Party of Canada Senator Michael McDonald sent a letter to Conservative

00:02:34.160 Caucus urging a vote for a leadership review of Erin O'Toole.

00:02:37.540 Voting in favor of a review vote is not pleasant, but it is necessary.

00:02:41.160 The status quo under the present circumstances is a mistake.

00:02:44.480 So there is a longer story in the Globe and Mail about this.

00:02:48.840 So McDonald sent out an email, a letter to all of Caucus, basically urging them to vote

00:02:54.900 on the Reform Act.

00:02:56.660 So as I explained in the show yesterday, there's two sort of separate things that happened.

00:03:00.560 The first is what they call like an airing of the grievances.

00:03:04.100 Everyone lines up with the microphones and just, you know, lets Erin O'Toole have a piece 1.00

00:03:08.740 of their mind, lets them hear it.

00:03:10.060 This is what you guys did wrong.

00:03:11.220 This is what you need to do better next time.

00:03:13.520 This is what my constituents are saying.

00:03:15.780 This is what I'm hearing from the Conservative base, et cetera, et cetera.

00:03:18.860 And that's the part of the meeting that includes both incoming and outgoing MPs.

00:03:23.040 So we also have to hear from the handful of people who lost, presumably because he abandoned

00:03:28.880 Conservative principles and his strategy failed.

00:03:31.380 So, you know, three seats were lost in Alberta, a handful of seats in British Columbia and in

00:03:36.540 the 905 around Toronto as well.

00:03:38.560 So that's one aspect of it.

00:03:41.340 Then all the MPs who lost leave and the remaining Caucus stay and they vote on a bunch of procedural

00:03:47.560 stuff, including the Reform Act, which is something that was introduced back in 2015 by Michael

00:03:51.740 Chong. 1.00

00:03:52.700 Just giving the, there's four aspects of it, but the one that McDonald is talking about

00:03:58.260 is giving Caucus the power to call a leadership review.

00:04:01.180 Um, so, so it would give Caucus the power to say, uh, you know, we, we, we want a new leader.

00:04:07.460 We don't like this guy.

00:04:08.540 We want a new leader.

00:04:09.800 And, uh, that would be something new.

00:04:11.460 So when Evan Solomon says urging a vote for a leadership review, um, it's not even necessarily

00:04:16.480 a vote for leadership review of Aaron O'Toole.

00:04:18.360 He's talking about just giving them the power to do that.

00:04:20.920 But then if you, uh, read this Globe and Mail story, uh, he does go into some detail about

00:04:25.560 how he believes that Aaron O'Toole is not the right man for the job.

00:04:29.220 So this is a quote from the letter.

00:04:30.860 It says, the only conclusion that can be drawn from these numbers is that the leader's conscious

00:04:34.700 decision to move the conservative party to the left has been a strategic failure.

00:04:38.900 As we not only failed to make breakthrough in the GTA as promised, we actually lost seats.

00:04:44.680 So McDonald is not happy.

00:04:46.000 This is interesting too, because he is a Senator from Nova Scotia, not exactly considered a, uh,

00:04:52.280 very conservative stronghold in the country.

00:04:54.160 So if this is what a conservative out East, out in the Maritimes, uh, thinks of Aaron

00:04:57.900 O'Toole, then boy, is he in trouble.

00:05:00.120 So it will be interesting to watch out, uh, for that.

00:05:03.340 And again, we'll keep you posted.

00:05:04.500 Next scoop we saw came from David Aitken over at Global News.

00:05:08.540 David Aitken is an incredibly plugged in reporter.

00:05:11.700 He knows a lot of people in Ottawa.

00:05:13.600 And so I trust him and his sources, uh, usually.

00:05:16.800 So this is what he said last night.

00:05:18.180 He said, MPs are being urged to vote yes to giving themselves power to dump a leader.

00:05:22.820 But I'm told that should not be interpreted as intent to use that power to dump Aaron O'Toole,

00:05:27.780 who seems to have enough caucus support to carry on.

00:05:30.700 And that's what I've been hearing as well.

00:05:32.560 David Aitken goes on, though.

00:05:33.520 He says this, but here's the kicker about Tuesday's conservative caucus meeting.

00:05:37.680 Aaron O'Toole, an insider says, is looking to take a snap caucus vote on his leadership.

00:05:43.020 A public vote.

00:05:44.360 Stand up if you're with me.

00:05:45.620 Stand up if you're against me.

00:05:46.900 We'll all be behind closed doors.

00:05:48.400 But interesting.

00:05:49.760 So, wow, that would be quite the power move if Aaron O'Toole just invited everyone in

00:05:53.460 the room and said, guys, before we go any further, I want to know exactly where you stand.

00:05:57.820 That's pretty gutsy.

00:05:59.260 I don't think there's any precedent for that.

00:06:01.500 In fact, the MPs that I've spoken to says that he couldn't do that, that he wouldn't

00:06:06.240 actually have any standing, that a vote like that wouldn't have any validity.

00:06:10.340 But it would be like a power move just to show, basically, to shame the people who are

00:06:15.160 against him.

00:06:15.880 And then he could probably punish them in some way.

00:06:18.940 So it's almost like a Soviet-style act.

00:06:21.660 I'm not discrediting David Aitken.

00:06:23.260 I think he probably did hear that.

00:06:25.040 If Aaron O'Toole actually does that, then wow, he's got Gaul.

00:06:28.580 And I guess good for him.

00:06:30.320 That's quite the power move.

00:06:31.660 But again, pretty divisive way to run a party, if you ask me.

00:06:36.040 The next leak we saw came from Kian Bexley, the independent reporter out in Alberta.

00:06:41.300 He says this.

00:06:42.040 Conservative Party insiders say that the Alberta caucus is furious with O'Toole's performance

00:06:46.840 at 25% of caucus membership.

00:06:49.420 Alberta meets the 28% threshold to call a leadership premium.

00:06:52.680 So this is technically true.

00:06:53.800 If every single Alberta MP were to vote against Aaron O'Toole, it would meet the numbers that

00:07:00.680 he's saying are correct.

00:07:02.120 However, this is just not the case.

00:07:04.160 We know this because we can look at the public support that Aaron O'Toole has received.

00:07:09.280 Right after the election, a whole bunch of MPs came out and led their support to Aaron

00:07:13.460 O'Toole, including a handful of folks in Alberta.

00:07:16.580 People like Garnet Janis, Michelle Rempel, and I believe Blake Richardson.

00:07:20.580 So this whole idea that every single MP in Alberta is against Aaron O'Toole is just not

00:07:26.680 true.

00:07:27.100 That's just not the case.

00:07:28.500 And my friend Lee Humphrey made that point as well.

00:07:32.200 He says, I'm not really much of an insider anymore, but I've spoken to several folks

00:07:35.940 who still are, and I've not heard anything like this.

00:07:39.240 In fact, I'm hearing O'Toole is safer by the day.

00:07:41.940 And yes, this is what I'm hearing as well.

00:07:43.940 That yes, there's a handful of people that are really mad, really disappointed, want Aaron

00:07:48.720 O'Toole to receive the same kind of treatment that Andrew Scheer received and want him out.

00:07:52.900 But that's not the majority.

00:07:54.660 That's not even the plurality of caucus.

00:07:56.540 Most people just don't want to rock the boat.

00:07:57.860 They don't want another leadership review.

00:07:59.120 They recognize that Aaron O'Toole has only been in office as leader for about a year

00:08:04.680 when the campaign started, a little over a year, and that he hasn't really had the opportunity

00:08:08.300 to lead the party.

00:08:10.400 So that's just what I'm hearing.

00:08:12.040 That's definitely not my opinion, but that's what I'm hearing will happen in caucus today.

00:08:15.800 Now, I want to step back and show you something interesting that appeared in the Toronto Star

00:08:19.300 over the weekend.

00:08:19.960 Now, as you know, the Toronto Star is the worst, most left-wing newspaper in the country.

00:08:23.260 They have a social justice mandate.

00:08:25.020 It is written into their editorial position.

00:08:26.860 They follow something called the Atkins Principle.

00:08:28.760 So they are an activist journalism outlet whose goal and all of their journalism is guided

00:08:34.620 to make Canada a more left-wing, progressive, woke country.

00:08:39.040 And so for some reason, conservatives still leak stories to the Star.

00:08:43.100 They still submit op-eds to the Star.

00:08:44.660 They still somehow want to win over the Star's audience, which is a huge, huge mistake.

00:08:49.020 But regardless, I digress.

00:08:51.420 On Saturday, they had two really interesting op-eds that appeared side-by-side, and it

00:08:56.200 was a debate.

00:08:58.100 The Saturday debate, should the Conservative Party keep Erin O'Toole as leader?

00:09:01.800 And as you would expect, the people who would read and submit things to the Toronto Star.

00:09:06.320 So we have two ultra-connected Conservative insiders, two former senior-senior staff members

00:09:12.460 for the Harper Conservative government, who are now both consultants.

00:09:15.960 So on the yes side, we have Andrew McDougal, who is a director at Trafalgar Strategy, who

00:09:20.480 was previously director of communication to former Prime Minister Stephen Harper.

00:09:24.740 And on the no side, on the side saying, get rid of Erin O'Toole, is Jenny Byrne, who's 1.00

00:09:28.700 the CEO of Jenny Byrne Associates, a former deputy chief of staff and national campaign

00:09:32.940 director to Prime Minister Stephen Harper.

00:09:35.020 So like I said, senior insiders for the Conservative Party, very well-known people within the Conservative

00:09:40.780 movement.

00:09:41.420 So I want to go through the yes side, because I think it explains exactly the mindset of

00:09:46.580 Red Tories and why they think that O'Toole should stay.

00:09:49.240 And I'll go through a bit of Jenny Byrne's, because it's pretty good.

00:09:52.420 I'll just say it's pretty good.

00:09:54.240 So Andrew McDougal starts by saying, losing to the hated Justin Trudeau is a firing offense

00:09:59.320 for most Conservatives.

00:10:00.400 Just ask Andrew Scheer.

00:10:01.820 But what should happen to a Conservative leader who fights Trudeau to a draw with the deck stacked

00:10:06.120 against him and with one hand tied behind his back?

00:10:08.860 Does he deserve a different fate?

00:10:10.200 So he goes on to say how the deck was stacked against Aaron O'Toole, mostly because Justin

00:10:15.280 Trudeau spent hundreds of billions of dollars during the pandemic kind of bribing Canadians

00:10:20.020 with their own money right up until the election when he actually sent $500 out to seniors during

00:10:24.520 the campaign.

00:10:25.840 So yeah, most Canadians were just grateful for the help and they didn't recognize that

00:10:29.300 they were being bribed.

00:10:30.340 So I'll concede that point.

00:10:32.780 That is right.

00:10:33.940 And then, but then he goes into the policy and he says, this is for the one hand tied behind

00:10:37.980 O'Toole faces a scenario in which 75 to 80% of Canadians support vaccine mandates with

00:10:43.960 most of the holdouts either supporting his party or Maxine Bernier's party to the right.

00:10:48.000 Lest we forget, Trudeau's government also did a solid job procuring vaccines.

00:10:52.760 The reality left precious little room for O'Toole to maneuver on the biggest issue of the

00:10:56.200 day.

00:10:56.460 Despite these pressures, O'Toole didn't take the bait and indulge the anti-vaccination crowd.

00:11:00.600 Even if it might have pulled some of that support back, that showed good judgment.

00:11:05.760 So right off the bat, the position is not to lead the country, not to be a politician

00:11:10.400 who has convictions, who believes in their own principles, who carves their own path and

00:11:14.960 graphs policy based on their core beliefs.

00:11:17.640 It all comes down to polls.

00:11:18.900 It all comes down to the strategy behind the percentage and which wedge issues you can

00:11:23.240 run on.

00:11:23.620 And this drives so many Canadians crazy.

00:11:25.340 It's like everything is based on the strategy, the polling, the micro-targeting, and you don't

00:11:31.240 believe what you're saying.

00:11:32.240 You're not authentic.

00:11:33.300 You're not putting out a position that you believe in because you think it's right for

00:11:36.060 the country.

00:11:36.640 You're basing it all on what pollsters tell you to say.

00:11:39.880 So I guess this is Andrew McDougall trying to say that Aaron O'Toole was smart and strong.

00:11:43.920 But to me, when I read this, it just shows weakness and a lack of authenticity because you're

00:11:48.240 just basing your policies on what the polls are telling you.

00:11:52.080 And then he goes on to really make it clear.

00:11:55.560 So he says how Aaron O'Toole started the campaign strong.

00:11:58.260 The polls reflected that.

00:11:59.580 And then he kind of fell back and went flat around the time of the first debate.

00:12:03.880 And this, he says, is largely on account of his inability to explain why his platform

00:12:08.280 included a repeal of gun regulations put in by the liberals.

00:12:12.280 The slide could be down to O'Toole's fluffed comms on the issues, or it could be drawn from

00:12:17.040 the fact that people in vote-rich urban suburban areas don't understand why anyone needs

00:12:21.160 a semi-automatic weapon.

00:12:22.520 Either way, an election is a hell of a time to try to explain the nuance of Canadian gun

00:12:26.440 use and gun control.

00:12:27.700 So here we have it.

00:12:28.620 The entire idea is that during the campaign, you don't try to defend your ideas.

00:12:33.020 You don't try to defend principles like the idea that there's nothing wrong with owning

00:12:36.540 a gun legally.

00:12:38.140 And those people aren't the ones that commit crimes by and large.

00:12:41.600 But no, it's just that Trudeau picked up this wedge issue and he was correct to do

00:12:46.020 it.

00:12:46.160 And the conservatives were flat-footed.

00:12:47.560 And again, this is such a bad strategy.

00:12:49.260 Aaron O'Toole lost because he was listening to comms people like Andrew McDougal giving

00:12:54.120 this kind of advice.

00:12:54.960 Because the whole idea that Aaron O'Toole should lose on an issue like crime, crime is

00:12:58.940 bread and butter issue for conservatives.

00:13:00.840 Aaron O'Toole is supposed to be a law and order guy.

00:13:02.720 You flip this issue immediately.

00:13:04.400 As soon as Justin Trudeau starts talking about guns, you say, you want to start talking about

00:13:07.980 crime, Mr. Trudeau?

00:13:08.900 Let's talk about your record.

00:13:10.060 Let's talk about your decision to lessen sentences for dangerous criminals, violent criminals

00:13:14.600 caught with illegal guns.

00:13:15.800 Let's talk about Canada's revolving door prison system.

00:13:18.100 Show some conviction.

00:13:19.380 Talk about conservative principles.

00:13:20.680 Flip the issue.

00:13:21.640 Own the issue.

00:13:22.440 That's what conservatives expect.

00:13:23.840 That's what we want to see.

00:13:25.080 And so this whole idea coming back that, oh, he shouldn't have never have had this gun

00:13:28.700 stuff in the platform to begin with.

00:13:30.320 It's like, okay, we get it.

00:13:31.820 This is what red Tories believe.

00:13:33.040 They don't want anything conservative in the platform.

00:13:35.420 And instead of blaming Aaron O'Toole for really just handling that so poorly, he goes

00:13:39.560 back and says, oh, it never should have been in the platform.

00:13:42.640 And then he concludes it all by just saying, besides running another leadership race in

00:13:46.380 a pandemic would be an invitation to a civil war and switching horses when Trudeau is trending

00:13:50.420 towards the glue factory would be a mistake.

00:13:52.960 It would be better for conservatives to improve the leader they've got.

00:13:56.380 So basically the reasons to keep the guy are that we don't really want to have to do this

00:14:00.500 again, which is not a very compelling, not a very exciting answer.

00:14:05.120 And even the people that they get to defend Aaron O'Toole have to do it half-heartedly

00:14:09.640 and do it based on blaming everyone around Aaron O'Toole and not him and kind of doubling

00:14:14.760 down on this idea that we need to have more liberal policies in the conservative platform.

00:14:19.080 On the other side, we have Jenny Byrne.

00:14:20.960 Jenny Byrne is, sure, she's a conservative insider, but I think she's still very much a member

00:14:25.040 of the base and she understands conservatism and the principles behind it.

00:14:30.700 So her piece is much, much, much more critical.

00:14:33.620 So she starts off by saying, from a political perspective, the conservative campaign was

00:14:38.140 the most disappointing.

00:14:39.360 CBC ran on a platform of political expediency, hoping for a win at all costs and ending up

00:14:44.660 with no wins at all.

00:14:45.780 The party has fewer seats and a lower share of the popular vote than it did in 2019.

00:14:49.040 It is less urban and less ethnically diverse than at any point in modern history.

00:14:53.060 And so she says, for that reason, O'Toole's strategy to run as a liberal failed.

00:14:58.220 She says he did run a tactically good campaign.

00:15:00.740 He made the decision to run as a liberal, not to the center, as some commenters have said.

00:15:05.220 There was little contrast between the conservatives and the liberals.

00:15:08.020 People had no distinct reason to cast their vote for the conservatives.

00:15:11.100 And I suspect many people who voted for us in the past simply didn't vote at all.

00:15:14.440 The argument to keep O'Toole as leader of the party, therefore, is purely an emotional

00:15:17.660 one.

00:15:18.040 It is not based on facts or results.

00:15:20.440 Many people speaking for O'Toole in the months leading up to the campaign said the conservatives

00:15:24.980 needed to sacrifice votes in Alberta to win in Ontario.

00:15:29.360 Campaigns are not board games.

00:15:30.680 And if they are, they're more like monopoly than risk.

00:15:33.020 You can't simply move votes from one area of the country to another.

00:15:36.200 You must build support on what you already have.

00:15:38.400 O'Toole's carbon tax promised to amend rather than repeal Bill C-69, the anti-pipeline

00:15:42.880 bill, and constant flipping on gun control and free votes cost him the election.

00:15:46.840 The most effective attack the liberals had against O'Toole was that he would say anything

00:15:50.960 to get elected.

00:15:51.880 It was effective because it was true.

00:15:54.760 I'm just going to keep reading from this because it's so good.

00:15:56.540 Okay, she goes on to say, if the conservative party truly intends to provide Canadians a meaningful

00:16:00.160 government in waiting, they must now have the fight that no one wants to have.

00:16:04.140 The decisions on what happens next must be based on fact.

00:16:07.180 The argument to stay the course can't be on the sense that we don't have the stomach

00:16:10.120 for a leadership race.

00:16:11.120 That's bad for the party, bad for democracy, and ultimately bad for the country.

00:16:14.040 The conservatives are a diverse coalition of Canadians from across the country, physical

00:16:17.740 conservatives, Western and democratic reformers, social conservatives, red Tories, and libertarians

00:16:22.160 are part of the coalition.

00:16:24.180 There is the head and the heart of the movement.

00:16:26.580 The head wants to win and chooses leaders who appeal to Canadians.

00:16:29.800 The heart wants to make sure core conservative values are adhered to and followed at the same

00:16:33.680 time.

00:16:34.020 Our coalition is right now being held together by the thinnest of strings, dislike for Justin

00:16:38.220 Trudeau.

00:16:38.900 Parts of the coalition no longer feel like they have a political home.

00:16:41.560 O'Toole won the CBC leadership race by stating that he was a true blue conservative.

00:16:46.000 He said he was the only person who could win the next election and keep the coalition

00:16:49.200 together.

00:16:50.140 Not only was that never true, O'Toole has fractured the party for the first time since

00:16:53.640 its creation.

00:16:54.600 My fear is that with O'Toole at the helm, the coalition will continue to unravel.

00:16:58.580 For the good of the conservative movement and the health of the conservative party, we

00:17:01.760 need our leader to be able to proudly take principled stance, keep our coalition together,

00:17:05.640 and grow our support across the country.

00:17:07.700 conservative members need to take a hard look as to whether Aaron O'Toole is the person

00:17:12.820 and do it soon.

00:17:14.320 I couldn't have said it any better myself.

00:17:15.940 I absolutely echo those points.

00:17:17.800 And again, today is going to be a big day.

00:17:19.420 We'll be back again tomorrow and we will break down exactly what happens inside the conservative

00:17:23.600 caucus.

00:17:23.960 I'm Candace Malcolm and this is The Candace Malcolm Show.

The Candice Malcolm Show - October 05, 2021

It’s make or break for Erin O’Toole today in caucus today

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