The Candice Malcolm Show - NEW EXCLUSIVE POLL： POILIEVRE CLOSES THE GAP

00:00:00.000 China's killing our canola, $45 billion gone, Western farmers bleed, Mark Carney silent,

00:00:11.240 made millions off Beijing's dime. He won't fight. He's Beijing's banker, not our prime minister.

00:00:19.240 Hi, I'm Candace Malcolm, and this is The Candace Malcolm Show. We're kind of getting into the

00:00:32.000 homestretch of the campaign, folks. We have the French language debates tonight. They changed

00:00:37.120 the time. Originally, they were going to be at 7. They moved them to 6 p.m. because, get this,

00:00:41.320 of the Montreal Canadiens game. You know that Canada's not really a serious country when the

00:00:45.960 debate, first of all, the debate is scheduled at the exact same time as a hockey game. Folks,

00:00:50.020 we get the hockey schedule, what, in like September or October? We knew that the Montreal Canadiens

00:00:53.960 were going to be playing. We knew there was going to be a Habs game, but somehow they didn't realize

00:00:57.440 it, and then the Block and the NDP put up a big fight saying, you got to move the debate. You

00:01:01.440 can't have it at the same time as a hockey game. So, they moved the time slightly forward. So,

00:01:05.740 the debate will now be at 6 p.m. Eastern time. We're going to go live at 5.30. So, we're going

00:01:10.420 to do a broadcast. We're going to have commentary before the debate starts, and then we'll show

00:01:15.500 you the entire debate. We're really excited because True North and Juneau News have three

00:01:20.280 reporters, three reporters that were approved to attend the debate and, more importantly,

00:01:25.480 ask questions afterwards. So, the debate itself, I don't know exactly what to expect. I don't have

00:01:30.160 high hopes because of the format, right? This is run by the government. The Trudeau government

00:01:33.780 created these federal debate commissions. So, rather than being hosted by private media companies,

00:01:38.580 it's government-run, which means that the issues will be predominantly what matters to, like,

00:01:44.160 left-wing Canadians, that the, you know, there's, well, the Green Party has dropped out of the

00:01:50.280 debate. They've been kicked out. So, there'll only be four leaders on stage, which is, I guess,

00:01:53.500 a good thing. But too much of time will be taken up by NDP grandstanding and bloc grandstanding.

00:01:59.500 Neither of those two parties have any shot at forming government or becoming prime minister.

00:02:03.720 In my mind, the debate should be a one-on-one between Poliev and Carney. I think that's what

00:02:08.080 Canadians want, but unfortunately, that's not what they're going to get. So, I think that the more

00:02:12.320 important part of the debate tonight will be when journalists get to ask questions of the leader,

00:02:18.000 the leaders, and that's why we have three journalists there. Very excited and happy about

00:02:22.400 that. If you want to support Juno News and support our ability to do these kind of things, right? Like,

00:02:27.780 we're not a big media company, a big corporate media company. We don't get government bailouts

00:02:31.400 like the CBC or the National Post. We are entirely funded by our viewers, by our supporters. So,

00:02:37.440 if you want to support our election coverage, head on over to supportjuno.com and you can donate.

00:02:43.120 We have a fund. We've been very blessed to be supported by so many viewers and subscribers out

00:02:49.980 there. So, head on over to supportjuno.com and consider chipping in to help us with our coverage.

00:02:55.240 And then 5.30 tonight, 5.30 Eastern time, we will be live for the debate. We're really,

00:03:00.500 really excited about that. It will be on YouTube. So, please watch that. Our goal is to try to compete

00:03:07.040 with the big media companies and have Canadians watching us so that you don't have to watch the

00:03:11.300 bias coverage through the CBC and other legacy media reports. Okay, let's get to the big news. We have

00:03:16.340 a new exclusive poll from Juno News and it looks like things are trending in the right direction

00:03:22.420 for the Conservatives and for Pierre Polyev. They are closing the gap on Mark Carney. Like I've said,

00:03:28.100 the more Canadians get to know Mark Carney, the less they like him, the more questions arise and we are

00:03:33.100 continuing to see this. So, to talk about our poll, I'm very pleased to be joined by Juno News' in-house

00:03:39.200 pollster for this election, David Murray. David Murray works for One Persuasion and we have hired

00:03:43.880 him to come on for the election and give us analysis and do these exclusive polls for us. David, welcome

00:03:49.200 to the show. Good to be with you. Okay, so tell us about the recent poll. Pierre Polyev is closing that

00:03:54.920 gap and narrowing in. This is going to be an incredibly tight race. Tell us about the top line.

00:03:59.440 Sure. So, the top line, we have the Liberal Party of Canada led by Mark Carney at 39%,

00:04:04.060 the Conservatives at 37%, the NDP at 11%, the Greens at 2%, the Bloc Québécois at 8%,

00:04:10.480 and then other parties is 3%. Some say the bubbles in an aero truffle piece can take 34 seconds to melt

00:04:17.160 in your mouth. Sometimes the very amount you're stuck at the same red light. Rich, creamy, chocolatey

00:04:23.560 aero truffle. Feel the aero bubbles melt. It's mind bubbling. Wow. Okay.

00:04:29.200 So, this really shows a incredibly tight race, right? Previously in the campaign, we had seen a

00:04:36.880 pretty substantial lead for the Liberals and for Mark Carney, even with our own polls out in the

00:04:41.500 field. I know a lot of viewers are quite skeptical of the polls. They don't think that they have a good

00:04:47.820 way of reaching Canadians and that many Conservatives might be disinterested in polls. They might not answer,

00:04:54.060 they might not reply, or they might just not tell the pollster what they're thinking. And so, even with this

00:05:00.940 formula, we still see the Conservatives really closing that gap, narrowing that gap. So, tell us, can you

00:05:07.540 describe how this has changed over, like, the past two, three weeks here?

00:05:12.160 The biggest, most notable change is in Ontario. So, in Ontario, two weeks ago, we had a 14-point gap,

00:05:19.300 where the Liberals were 14 points above the Conservatives. Last week, we had Ontario at a

00:05:24.860 seven-point gap, where the Liberals were seven points ahead of the Conservatives. This week,

00:05:29.660 it's four points. So, if this trend continues, if this kind of momentum is able to be sustained,

00:05:35.540 that's going to be quite significant in terms of what that means, especially for the 905 and other

00:05:41.360 very vital regions within the province of Ontario. In Quebec, we're seeing a tightening of the race.

00:05:47.140 Previously, we had the Bloc Québécois leading the Liberals. Now, they're both tied at 35%. That's

00:05:54.220 going to make some very interesting ridings across, especially in the eastern townships and over into

00:06:00.600 the south side of Montreal. That area, that's going to be, I think, a very pivotal region of the

00:06:07.980 country, especially for determining if it's a minority or a majority government. Those are areas that

00:06:12.480 the Liberals must win. Well, it's interesting because I said I'm not very interested in hearing

00:06:17.980 from Bloc leader Yves-Francois Blanchet because he has no shot of becoming Prime Minister. But the way

00:06:25.340 you're describing it, he actually perhaps does play a big role in this because if he shines tonight in

00:06:31.080 the debate for the French audience, for the Quebec audience, it's possible that those few seats that

00:06:36.760 Mark Carney really needs to win in and around Montreal, that they could possibly go towards the

00:06:42.240 Bloc. Can you sort of describe that dynamic in Quebec and why this debate tonight matters so much for

00:06:48.740 the election? For sure. So in Quebec, especially on like the Conservative side, the Conservatives are

00:06:55.260 very strong in the national capital region, which is up by Quebec City and up towards Jean-Claire,

00:06:59.380 Chicoutimi, that area of the province. So when the Blocs start to gain support, they're primarily

00:07:06.380 taking away from the Conservatives. Once they reach a certain threshold, that shifts to then them making

00:07:12.160 progress significantly against the Liberals. And so if we see a stronger and stronger Bloc, it doesn't

00:07:18.780 actually take directly from the Conservative vote as much as people would think on a one-to-one basis.

00:07:24.200 You start to see more interesting ridings come up, like Trois-Rivières becomes very interesting,

00:07:29.300 becomes also very interesting. That's in the southern, right along the Canadian-American

00:07:35.180 border, right between Montreal and Sherbrooke. Those areas are starting to become more and more

00:07:41.260 in play as we go on. And while it might not be always a direct benefit to the Conservatives,

00:07:47.880 it's certainly very impactful on the overall makeup of how the House of Commons will actually look,

00:07:54.220 which is what really matters post-election.

00:07:57.040 And so a lot was made after the Liberal leadership debates with Mark Kearney's French. I think that

00:08:04.480 a lot of Canadians would assume that he has very good French just because he's part of Canada's

00:08:08.800 elite and he worked for the government. And yet when he was actually up on stage, it seemed that his

00:08:13.520 French was probably the worst of those on stage with the Liberal leadership debate. There was an

00:08:18.880 infamous phrase that he said, I think accidentally, that he said, we agree with Hamas. We agree with

00:08:25.820 Hamas. And so, like, do you think that it's possible that he's going to have another blunder?

00:08:30.900 I imagine that he's been spending a lot of time practicing his French. Some people have said that

00:08:35.460 it's improved moderately throughout the past few weeks. The fact that Pierre Polyev is pretty much

00:08:42.280 fluent. I don't think French is his native tongue, but I understand that he speaks French very, very

00:08:47.040 well. And then obviously the bloc. Do you think that that will have an issue? Like if French Canadians

00:08:54.160 watch this debate and realize that Mark Kearney isn't really one of them and perhaps that the

00:08:58.680 Liberals aren't the party that best represents them, is that an issue tonight?

00:09:02.040 I think it's part of it for sure. I think the other part of it is also just the, there's a certain

00:09:08.660 amount of forgiveness that will be given on the language stuff if there's like minor corrections,

00:09:13.160 but what's not forgivable is not demonstrating that you actually understand Quebec values,

00:09:17.560 what Quebec, how Quebec sees itself as a nation within Canada. Even the relationship between Quebec

00:09:27.600 municipalities and stuff like that, and even like immigration, the cultural side, it's so unique

00:09:33.440 and so different, and they take a lot of pride in that. And so any leader that is not able to firmly

00:09:38.740 really put that forward and like demonstrate that to the Quebec people, I think is probably more

00:09:45.880 important than the language stuff, but the language, it definitely does play a factor. And we also saw

00:09:52.980 this in Tous les Mains d'en Pas, which is the, one of the leading French cultural shows where Mr. Carney

00:10:01.620 himself was only able to give like relatively simplistic answers to often very complex questions

00:10:08.600 that were given to him by the hosts. And contrast that with Mr. Poliev and Mr. Blanchet, they're able

00:10:14.580 to be much more fulsome, actually like explain nuances, expect like, especially at the level that is needed to

00:10:20.740 demonstrate that you can actually have the best interests of Quebec at heart.

00:10:25.080 Interesting, interesting. Okay, let's go back to Ontario, because you mentioned that there was

00:10:28.740 quite a big gap. And it seems to me that every election period, the election is pretty much decided

00:10:35.200 by suburban voters in and around Toronto like that, that always seems to be like whatever those voters

00:10:41.600 decide to go for. Obviously, every vote matters and every region matters. And we could talk about

00:10:45.760 Atlantic Canada, and Quebec, and of course, you know, British Columbia, parts of the prairies will

00:10:50.400 also determine it. But at the end of the day, like, every party needs to capture this like suburban

00:10:57.040 Ontario vote. It seems to me that earlier in the campaign, before the campaign even started,

00:11:01.160 the media sort of cemented the theme of the campaign to be who can best deal with Donald Trump,

00:11:06.360 and who's the best leader to combat this tariff situation we're facing. And Mark Carney sort of came

00:11:11.880 in with this shining resume. And in the minds of many voters, unfortunately, I think, they believe

00:11:18.340 that Mark Carney is the man for the job, that he's the right person at the right time, he has the right

00:11:22.440 resume. And that was sort of cemented. I think that that is the belief of many people in and around

00:11:30.240 Toronto, specifically women, suburban, like middle-aged women, it seems support isn't quite as strong as we

00:11:37.440 would have previously thought, like, from two weeks down, the gap between liberals and conservatives

00:11:43.280 went from 14% down to 4%. So can you just kind of walk us through that? Is that because those people

00:11:52.000 lost faith in Mark Carney, that they no longer think that he's the best person for the job? Or who are

00:11:59.020 those voters? And how did they lose basically a 10-point lead in Ontario? Or how did they lose 10 points

00:12:04.900 and basically go from a 14-point lead to a 4-point lead here?

00:12:08.300 I think we're starting to see the issue set fundamentally change, which was the gamble that the Conservatives

00:12:12.440 put on since the beginning of this campaign. As we see more and more, not stability, but where Canada's not

00:12:20.200 like nearly as in the crosshairs as it used to be with the President of the United States, you're starting to see

00:12:25.020 a lot more focus on things like cost of living, on building much more industrial independence to be able to

00:12:31.060 make other trading arrangements with other nations, including the EU, Australia, the UK, and such.

00:12:41.660 There's a lot of things that I think are really pointing that direction. The other huge one is housing,

00:12:49.100 where there's been, like, this is also a very significant concern in this region specifically.

00:12:55.060 Housing is so unaffordable in Toronto, and that includes the sprawl that is the GTA and the 905 and

00:13:02.980 down through the Golden Horseshoe by Hamilton, and then also crime. So especially in Pew region,

00:13:09.000 so this is Mississauga and Brampton area, rampant auto thefts. It is just such a problem. There was

00:13:15.160 actually, it was such a problem that Mr. Polly himself actually hosted a rally specifically for

00:13:21.780 stop the crime. One of the key five pillars that he, for the last two and a half-ish years,

00:13:28.420 has put forward as a primary idea of his, he had former police officer Ron Chinzer there. This is a

00:13:34.280 very big issue. And one of the things that was actually very telling was when he asked people,

00:13:38.980 like, raise your hand if you've been impacted by auto theft. And like two-thirds of the room raised

00:13:44.680 it, like either them or they knew someone that had been directly impacted by this issue. This is

00:13:49.320 something that's like front of mind. So as more and more of the conversation shifts towards those

00:13:54.540 issues, I think you're going to start to see more and more support behind what Mr. Polly is actually

00:14:00.900 putting, is actually putting forward. It's interesting because that did become an election

00:14:05.480 issue this week. Pierre Polly have said that he would even consider using the notwithstanding clause

00:14:11.000 to override this sort of ban that the Supreme Court has put on life sentences, literally for mass

00:14:17.420 murderers. And then you had Mark Carney coming out and defending the charter rights, saying that it's

00:14:23.280 a dangerous thing. It's up to the prime minister to protect charter rights, which to our viewers was

00:14:27.920 quite ironic, given that he was the one during the trucker convoy, he wrote an article, he wrote an op-ed

00:14:33.380 in the Globe and Mail urging the government to use the Emergencies Act to crack down on peaceful

00:14:38.480 protesters on Parliament Hill. And as we reported just yesterday, Megan Murphy, who is an outspoken

00:14:44.380 critic of the trans ideology, she had her bank account frozen, right? And so again, Mark Carney

00:14:50.520 saying that it's up to the prime minister to defend the charter of rights and freedoms. And yet he has

00:14:54.500 not done that. It's an interesting thing to happen in the middle of the campaign. David, I want to move

00:15:01.240 on. So the prairies, it looks like the conservatives are just basically going to walk away with this

00:15:06.520 thing. The polling that we had has the conservatives at 55% on the prairies, that's up three points,

00:15:12.480 and the liberals down to 29%. The NDP really collapsing single digits on the prairies,

00:15:19.120 8%. Talk about the prairies and what's happened with the NDP drop. Does that mean that potentially

00:15:27.660 the liberals could actually win more seats on the prairies, even though the conservatives have this

00:15:32.160 huge resounding lead? Obviously, in sort of more urban areas, there's always more left wing voters,

00:15:38.940 and that creates a risk. So talk to us about what's happening on the prairies.

00:15:43.580 Yeah. So from my perspective, this definitely does put a lot more in play for the liberals,

00:15:49.960 specifically in Edmonton and Calgary, if we look at specifically Edmonton Centre. This was one that

00:15:54.280 the conservatives were certainly hoping to pick up, and they still could, but it's becoming more and

00:15:59.800 more challenging as the vote split that is needed between the NDP and the liberals is not materializing

00:16:06.360 in the way that it is necessary to be able to put that forward. We've also seen at the same time,

00:16:12.000 the liberal support overall in the prairies has actually gone down by seven points in the last

00:16:16.720 week as well. Like, this is also a very significant movement, but we cannot overemphasize how important

00:16:23.180 it is to have a moderately strong NDP presence in some of these, especially core urban ridings,

00:16:29.200 to be able to make them competitive, specifically for conservatives.

00:16:31.620 Interesting, interesting. Okay, let's move on to British Columbia, because that is a place

00:16:35.860 where the NDP collapse hasn't been quite so pronounced. Like, I mean, we're talking about

00:16:40.340 8% for the NDP on the prairies, but it's still at 22%, which I guess is fairly respectable compared

00:16:46.060 to the national average. But given the fact that there's an NDP government in British Columbia,

00:16:50.120 it's still quite low. We have the conservatives all the way up at 39%, plus three over the week prior.

00:16:55.960 So what does that look like? And maybe talk about some of the ridings that the conservatives really

00:17:01.740 need to win in British Columbia?

00:17:03.720 Well, a collapsing NDP has huge ramifications in British Columbia, specifically on Vancouver Island.

00:17:09.940 I think we have, I believe it's five seats in play on Vancouver Island. And they're typically,

00:17:16.200 almost exclusively, battles between the NDP and the conservatives. This is quite significant.

00:17:21.860 It's very interesting also to see that Mark Carney showed up to Victoria, a riding that the liberals

00:17:28.860 have struggled in for so long. It really points to even the liberals identifying this kind of

00:17:36.260 vulnerability that the NDP find themselves in. This also translates itself into other areas,

00:17:43.600 specifically in the BC interior, I think is very interesting when we start to talk about South

00:17:48.120 Okanagan, around Lake Penticton area. And in Vancouver proper itself, ridings like

00:17:54.220 Port Moody Coquitlam is another, is a classic example of this. The dynamics that this actually

00:18:01.560 plays out in West Vancouver, Sunshine Coast, Sea Sky Country, and even down into Vancouver Kingsway

00:18:08.140 and others within the actual metro area itself. The fall of the NDP, despite even EB coming out,

00:18:15.680 vocalizing his support for them, is going to have very huge ramifications for the entire election

00:18:22.500 as a whole. Interesting. Okay. I want to talk about one of the questions that we specifically asked

00:18:28.180 to the, in the poll this week. I know you mentioned that crime, cost of living, all these other issues

00:18:35.120 have come into play. They're all kind of tangentially related to immigration. Immigration,

00:18:40.460 you know, this is something that Trudeau kind of drastically departed from the norm in Canada,

00:18:45.380 let's say over the last 20, 30 years, really opened up the border. And especially post COVID,

00:18:51.400 it seemed like they were trying to boost immigration in order to boost the GDP. It was kind of like a

00:18:57.440 hack. Just let in a lot of people. And even though the economy is not doing well, you know, all these

00:19:01.860 people will create growth in the economy. The only problem, of course, was that, well, there's lots and

00:19:05.620 lots of problems. But a major problem was that there weren't enough housing for people. And that

00:19:10.280 there's not a lot of economic opportunities for young men, which often leads to increases in crime,

00:19:14.600 which we talked about that Canada became the car theft capital of the world, according to a UK paper.

00:19:21.100 And so it all kind of comes down to immigration. So why don't you ask, why don't you talk about this

00:19:27.400 poll question that we asked Canadians? We didn't say whose policy was who, but we presented the three

00:19:34.220 different policies of the three different parties to people in the polls to Canadians to find out

00:19:40.080 which one they support without telling them which party voice which, which, which policies. So why

00:19:47.000 don't you walk us through that question? Sure. So the actual question itself was, which of the

00:19:51.500 following statements do you agree with most? Number one, the government should increase its annual

00:19:56.440 permanent resident target to 500,000 in effort to increase Canada's population to 100 million by the

00:20:02.220 year 2100. The second option was the government should maintain its present annual target of 30 of

00:20:09.100 395,000 new permanent residents per year. Third option was the government should decrease its annual

00:20:14.980 permanent resident target to 261,000 permanent residents, bringing immigration levels in line

00:20:23.040 with Prime Minister Stephen Harper's 2014 targets, and then don't know. The top line of this is that an

00:20:29.180 overwhelming rejection of anything but, uh, Mr. Harper's targets. So 57% of Canadians across the

00:20:37.180 country indicated that they would like to reduce, uh, the permanent resident section of the immigration

00:20:43.980 stream. Remember there's permanent residents and there's a permanent resident, resident stream. And

00:20:48.060 then there's also a few temporary streams as well. This is only dealing with permanent residents.

00:20:52.460 Uh, the status quo, uh, 23% of Canadians wanted to remain there. And then only 5% of Canadians want to

00:21:01.100 increase it to, um, uh, to the century initiatives, 100 million people by 2100 target. Wow. So even though,

00:21:11.100 you know, Mark Carney is a preferred prime minister to the majority or not majority of Canadians,

00:21:16.220 his immigration policy is incredibly unpopular. This idea that Canada needs to just let in a million

00:21:22.620 people a year and boost our population to a hundred million. The purpose for the century

00:21:28.140 initiative is that they want Canada to be like a bigger geopolitical player. And they think that

00:21:32.540 in order to do that, we have to have this huge, massive population from people from all over the

00:21:37.180 world. Um, that is a very fringe position for Canadians. Like only 5% of Canadians actually want

00:21:43.580 that Canadians don't like open borders. And I almost suspect that if there was a fourth question,

00:21:48.140 like no immigration, like let's put a pause on immigration for a few years until our economy can

00:21:53.340 grow. We can build more houses and we can integrate the people that are actually here. I suspect that

00:21:56.860 that would also have been a popular one, but we wanted to keep it with the parties. So, uh, folks will

00:22:01.580 recall that it was actually in the interview that Pierre Polyev did with, with us at Juneau News,

00:22:05.820 the sit down that we did in February, that he pledged to go back to Harper level, uh, targets and

00:22:11.820 numbers. And that was back when Canada used to admit, uh, approximately a quarter of a million

00:22:16.300 Canadians, uh, new newcomers per year in the permanent residency, 57%. So I think that shows

00:22:22.300 that this is a winning issue for conservatives by and large, and that Polyev should lean into it

00:22:28.060 and talk about it more. Uh, what, what, what's your takeaway on that, David?

00:22:32.460 Well, even, um, it's very telling, even among people that are indicating that they're going to vote

00:22:37.260 for the liberal party today, only 8% of those people like want to go to the century initiative

00:22:44.140 target. Um, 35% of liberal supporters want to have the status quo and 40% agree with Mr. Polyev in

00:22:52.380 reducing to the Stephen Harper targets. And then just one final within the, the NDP it's 6% that

00:22:58.700 support the century initiative targets, 47% want status quo. So that's much higher than base than

00:23:03.660 everyone else. But still three in 10 new Democrat supporters want to reduce immigration permanent

00:23:10.780 stream residents, uh, volumes down to the Harper targets. Like this is not a fringe position. This

00:23:17.740 is held by, uh, at straight at the top level, a majority of Canadians. This is very significant.

00:23:25.340 And I think that all party leaders would be wise to, uh, to understand that.

00:23:29.660 And to listen to Canadians that this isn't, you know, I think that the left and the media like

00:23:34.300 to say that those who oppose immigration have some sort of, uh, you know, bigoted mindset that

00:23:39.820 they just like don't like newcomers. It's clearly not the case given the ethnic makeup of our country

00:23:44.060 already. And the fact that people are still saying that they're open to having a quarter of a million

00:23:48.060 newcomers come every year, 57% say that. So it's not, it's not about any kind of like thoughts on

00:23:56.380 ethnicity or race. It really is, uh, you know, these other tangential issues that it creates,

00:24:02.540 uh, you know, we're talking about social division. We covered this on the show yesterday. Um, these

00:24:06.540 pro-Hamas rallies that are kind of run amok all over Canada. Um, some liberal party sort of extremism,

00:24:12.620 like you had, um, MP Adam, uh, then, uh, Vancouverton, um, out there, uh, at an extreme mosque,

00:24:21.900 basically just saying, we're the party that believes that Israel is committing genocide and

00:24:25.500 we're going to defend, uh, Palestinians and we're going to do all this stuff. Um, and, and, and then,

00:24:30.700 um, on top of that, well, and also just sort of wreaking havoc and terrorizing Jewish Canadians. Um,

00:24:37.100 and then on top of that, you also have the issues of housing. A lot of people are connecting those

00:24:40.940 dots and saying that part of the reason that housing has just become so unaffordable is because

00:24:44.540 we've had this huge influx of newcomers, new people in the country and not enough, uh, houses being

00:24:48.780 built to catch our, uh, keep up with that. And then on top of that, the crime, obviously there's

00:24:53.340 a huge, uh, overlap. And a lot of that is just because of, like I said, there's not a lot of

00:24:57.500 economic opportunities. It's also interesting, uh, that there's now a mismatch in terms of males

00:25:03.180 and females in Canada, because so much of our immigration is dominated by young men coming to

00:25:08.060 Canada, uh, that there's now, I think it's like six or 7% more men than women, uh, which creates a whole

00:25:15.500 other, uh, type of, um, social division issue. Uh, okay, David, I want to move on. There was another,

00:25:21.580 uh, polling company that sort of caught my eye and this is the main street research, uh, polling.

00:25:29.260 And so it seems to me, first of all, these guys are prolific. They seem to constantly be

00:25:33.100 in the field, like every, every day or every other day on the campaign, we get a new poll

00:25:38.300 from main street research. And I noticed over the weekend on Saturday, they had a poll that

00:25:45.020 had to be conservatives up two points. This is the first poll that I have seen conservatives

00:25:49.500 winning maybe in the entire election campaign, or at least in the last two, two and a half,

00:25:54.300 three weeks. And so main street found that the Tories are up by 2%, 44% to the liberals, 42%. I'm not

00:26:02.540 sure if that would equate to, I think that would still equate to a liberal minority. If I recall

00:26:07.900 correctly, just given that the liberal vote is more efficient in those suburbs, but look at the

00:26:12.860 NDP. So even with the total, total collapse of the NDP at only 6%, they still had the conservatives

00:26:19.740 up at 44%. And then just in full transparency, they did have another poll that they put out the next

00:26:27.180 day. And that one had the opposite. Basically, they had the liberals at 44 in the second poll and

00:26:34.300 the conservatives at 43. So either way, though, main street is definitely picking up and capturing

00:26:41.100 something that is obviously a major shift, right? This is the first time, I guess, the first time

00:26:45.660 we've seen conservatives ahead or even that close in a poll that high 43% conservatives, even in their

00:26:50.940 second one, 44. So first of all, maybe you can comment on this poll and what you think of this firm

00:26:56.780 and their results here. And then second, like, has the mood of the country shifted? Has there been

00:27:04.620 like a vibe change that has allowed Polyev to really have the momentum and really be heading

00:27:10.780 into the homestretch with more and more enthusiasm on the side? For sure. So on this poll specifically,

00:27:17.420 I think it's very notable that it's an IVR poll. So this is done like through your phone.

00:27:22.380 Um, what IVR polls are particularly good at, at least from my experience, they're good at

00:27:28.300 being the first to detect movement and the direction that it's going in. They, I've found

00:27:34.140 that the magnitude for which the direction to which the movement actually happens, that's up for debate.

00:27:39.420 I think that the actual like endpoint for which it like consolidates around at the end,

00:27:43.340 that's also up for debate, but they're typically the first to actually break that there is a movement

00:27:49.340 in a certain given direction. And so I think it's very interesting that we're starting to see

00:27:54.620 at least one other pollster notably with this methodology, uh, to see this, it's typically

00:28:00.860 a canary in the coal mind in terms of like the actual like dislodging of public opinion from one

00:28:07.020 party to the next. Um, in terms of the actual momentum going into the last, uh, the homestretch,

00:28:13.980 um, I think that it's worth also raising the button gate issue only because it was so counter to

00:28:21.580 everything that the liberals were trying to project and build their entire electoral coalition and brand

00:28:26.540 around, which was stability, uh, and being able to be the steady hand at the wheel, uh, this kind of

00:28:33.020 reckless, uh, political, uh, activity that the, the war room staffers were engaged with, which obviously

00:28:41.740 had the blessing of the higher ups. You do not do something like that without a very senior folks

00:28:47.820 understanding what's exactly going on. Um, I think that while it's not a golden, uh, a golden shot or

00:28:56.140 anything like that, it really puts forward some undertones that really discredit that position for

00:29:03.740 which the liberals are trying to build. And so if there's more and more of these kinds of events that

00:29:08.860 happen in the next like three to four days, um, I think it could really snowball and really damage

00:29:14.300 uh, kind of the equity in their brand that the liberals are trying to salvage and trying to pull

00:29:18.380 off this win. It's so interesting. We talked about this on the show yesterday because there was also

00:29:23.340 a leaked report that came out that showed that CSIS was warning that the Chinese election interference

00:29:29.660 would happen and that they would be trying to paint conservatives in Canada as Trumpian and Trump-like

00:29:35.020 to try to discredit them, to try to make sure that the liberals win, which we know that China

00:29:39.020 is supporting of Mark Carney and the liberals. And so it was sort of right out of the playbook. Like

00:29:45.180 we're seeing that this was actually the liberals were warned that this would happen. And yet the

00:29:49.260 liberals are the ones that are kind of trying to like wag the dog in this way by using these like

00:29:54.300 fraudulent tricks to try to fool most of the media, but also Canadians, fool the media to make them

00:29:59.580 think that conservatives are Trumpy and then fool Canadians to think that Polyev is like a mini

00:30:04.140 Trump or something like that. And I think also just the fact that Mark Carney didn't fire these

00:30:10.060 individuals, right? Like this is, this is to your point that they obviously had higher up approval,

00:30:15.820 but like on a campaign, if two junior staffers are out there committing shenanigans and potentially

00:30:21.980 committing some kind of an election fraud by trying to frame conservatives for doing something they're

00:30:26.540 not and then out bragging about it at a bar so that a CBC reporter heard about it, which is how the story

00:30:32.860 got broken, um, hilariously, like fire them, just fire them. There's two weeks left in the campaign,

00:30:38.780 right? Even the judgment of like Kate McKenna identified herself as a CBC journalist and they

00:30:44.700 still told her this is, this is just like a complete lapse of judgment at all levels with this

00:30:51.340 guy. That's why it's just so ridiculous. Well, and it's so easy to fire them. There's so much cause

00:30:56.700 to fire them. And yet Mark Carney was out there saying that he was going to reassign them,

00:31:00.780 right? Which means to me that he's not taking it very seriously, which means to me again,

00:31:05.100 that he endorses it or he approves of it, or he thinks that it's, it's, it's, that's,

00:31:08.860 that's part of the acceptable behavior within team liberal. And I think that again, it's kind of like

00:31:15.420 Paul Chang, right? He, he, he came out, uh, Mark Carney came out after the Paul Chang controversy for

00:31:20.940 folks that don't remember, uh, the union mill Markham MP and candidate for the liberals, um,

00:31:26.620 it was caught on tape basically saying that his political opponent and a conservative candidate

00:31:31.980 in the area should get turned over to the Chinese because the Chinese didn't like his advocacy,

00:31:36.700 uh, for, for, uh, free speech and a free, uh, an independent Hong Kong. And so therefore he should

00:31:43.100 get turned over for bounty. Um, Mark Carney refused to fire him. And it wasn't until like three or four

00:31:48.780 days of really, really intense scrutiny from the press and, uh, pro democracy campaigns and Chinese

00:31:54.940 Canadians that he eventually withdrew himself, uh, Paul Chang. So it seems to me that Mark Carney has

00:32:00.620 a bit of a problem, um, with discipline or with, um, knowing the difference between right and wrong,

00:32:06.860 as basic as it seems. Uh, do you think this is something that is, is, is shifting Canadians' minds?

00:32:11.420 And then final question, like, what are you watching out of these two debates this week?

00:32:15.180 Uh, what, what do you think the main thing that Pierre Polyev has to do?

00:32:19.020 Uh, so on the second, I think that debates are easy to lose and hard to win. So it needs to be,

00:32:24.140 Mr. Polyev needs to project himself as being prime ministerial, has to be very thoughtful,

00:32:27.900 has to demonstrate that, uh, like really his policy chops, which are extremely, uh,

00:32:34.140 extremely advanced and fine-tuned. I would know this very well personally.

00:32:37.420 Um, so like that contrast, he needs to try to, uh, build, especially given that the,

00:32:44.140 the narrative that they're trying to build around Mr. Polyev is one of basically recklessness and

00:32:50.060 trying to compare him to, to the president of the United States is very, uh, very focused on what

00:32:56.620 their, it's very clear what their objective is. And you really need to deny them that, uh, and

00:33:01.820 Carney needs to not screw up, uh, which is, uh, very, uh, in a world where like he, so he has very

00:33:11.180 advanced corporate communication skills. Um, that is fundamentally different than political

00:33:15.820 communications. And I think that people are starting to realize that now, um, he gets flustered very

00:33:20.860 easy. I think that it's very easy for other like journalists that are not, that don't have a huge

00:33:26.860 vested interest in, uh, like a, not, not nearly as direct as, as Mr. Polyev to, uh, to make, uh,

00:33:35.420 to get the one up on him or whatever, to get under his skin. Like these are things that are just

00:33:39.660 unforced errors that he has not learned from like thinking about the tax haven stuff where he files

00:33:44.700 his taxes. Uh, there's even some of the, the other Brookfield, uh, uh, issues that have been

00:33:50.300 identified over the course of the campaign. He's never gotten a question, gone back and thought

00:33:58.700 about the answer after, because he knows he's going to get asked it again. Or like if you give an

00:34:04.620 unsatisfactory answer, you're guaranteed to get asked it again. And if you don't come prepared,

00:34:09.260 like that's even worse than that, because you don't have the opportunity to put any issue to

00:34:14.780 bed if that's the case. So those are things that I'm really going to be looking for in the, uh,

00:34:20.700 in the debates. I think that are actually going to be quite substantial. I think the viewing audience

00:34:24.620 that's going to be viewing the entire debate, like watching it from start to finish, I think

00:34:28.460 it's going to skew towards the over 55s, which is the demographic that Mr. Carney has the most to

00:34:34.780 lose. Um, and every party is going to be pushing out their clips. So on the positive side in terms

00:34:39.820 of that, like that's going to be universal, but the whole debate, uh, is going to be like quite

00:34:46.380 meticulously scrutinized from all sides. Very, very interesting. Well, thank you,

00:34:50.220 David Murray for the insights. We look forward to having you back next week will be our last poll

00:34:54.780 of the election campaign. And we're going to do a writing by writing deep dive into where

00:34:59.180 Polyev needs to win in order to win and where Carney would need to win. So looking forward to that.

00:35:03.260 Uh, thanks so much. And we'll talk to you again soon. Take care. All right, folks. We'll be back

00:35:08.700 live at 5 30 PM Eastern time for our French debate show. Don't worry. Our broadcast won't be in French,

00:35:15.420 but, uh, we will be covering the French debates and I hope you will tune in then. Thank you so

00:35:20.300 much. I'm Candace Malcolm. This is the Candace Malcolm show. Thank you. And God bless.

The Candice Malcolm Show - April 16, 2025

NEW EXCLUSIVE POLL： POILIEVRE CLOSES THE GAP

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