In this episode of The Candace Malcolm Show, Candace talks to David Murray, an in-house pollster at One Persuasion, about whether the polls are on the upswing in the province of Quebec, and what that means for the rest of the country.
00:09:46.680It was people that really believed the message that we were saying, which was that if you work hard, you should be able to get ahead.
00:09:54.620And currently, after 10 years, the lost liberal decade, it's not happening.
00:09:59.940And so the need for change and embodying that change is actually a very, very powerful and engaging force, which is what I think is really happening behind the scenes as well.
00:11:06.260What this shows me, though, because I went back and I looked at the last two weeks of polling, David, and this is from 338.
00:11:13.260And so they put together, you know, the legacy media's choice of their pollsters.
00:11:17.900And according to that group of pollsters, we're talking about ECOS and Ipsos and Main Street and all of the sort of legacy media go-to polls, they have the liberals up in every single one of them.
00:11:30.380Every single one over the last two weeks has a liberal ahead.
00:11:33.400I think you have to go back to, I think it's March 19th or March 20th before you have one that was tied or has the conservatives up by one point.
00:11:41.600So the fact that abacus has a tie, to me, that's also showing a shift.
00:11:47.480Last week we had you on and you said that you were seeing signs that Mark Carney had perhaps peaked.
00:11:52.560Is this another sign that maybe, according to their own pollsters, that the liberals have peaked, they have no more room to grow, and they can only go down?
00:12:00.360And when you look at the last few days of media attention, you know, we've just seen scandal after scandal after scandal for Mark Carney and the liberals.
00:12:07.400The latest is this outrageous story of a liberal MP saying that Canadians should turn over the conservative MP to a bounty put on by the Chinese communist regime,
00:12:18.740and that he should be turned over to a Chinese consulate so they can deal with him.
00:12:22.860I think that there were several other scandals last week.
00:12:25.160We learned that Mark Carney used a tax haven in Bermuda to save money on taxes so that he could avoid Canadian taxes.
00:12:32.100He took out a bank loan from the communist Chinese government's central bank or state bank.
00:12:38.660You know, we're learning a lot of things about Mark Carney.
00:12:41.660Do you think any of those are starting to have an impact in the way that the electorate is viewing Mark Carney?
00:12:46.660I do. And every day that the headline coming out of that campaign is negative is what we call a million dollar mistake because of the amount of advertising that's spent every single day by political parties.
00:12:58.340It works out to about a million dollars a day.
00:12:59.960And so if you're not talking about your message and you're put on your heels and you're unable to really pierce through that that that negative that negative narrative,
00:13:09.600like what we're seeing with with Paul Chang right now, doesn't matter what he's saying on the campaign.
00:13:15.420It's going to result in that's what the takeaway is going to be.
00:13:18.540And it's in this business. It's typically death by a thousand cuts.
00:13:22.240And when you when you talk about a lapse of judgment, which I think that this the Paul Chang saga really points to that,
00:13:29.500like very definitively to to want to stand behind a person who literally made reference to a bounty on a conservative candidate.
00:13:41.920I think that like typical everyday Canadians are going to see that at home,
00:13:46.440especially given that it's really it's not just more independent media that are reporting this.
00:13:51.940It was on the front page of the National Post and the Globe and Mail and I believe in CBC has a story on this.
00:13:58.140Like this is permeating into the Main Street side and it really showcases a lack of judgment on behalf of Mr. Carney.
00:14:04.960So the question is how much of this is going to to permeate?
00:14:09.420Like we even see that there's a like now calls for a criminal investigation with the RCMP on this.
00:14:14.580Like like this drip, drip, drip, this further development into these stories are going to be like this is issues management 101.
00:14:22.820You either want to kill a story, like make it go away as fast as possible.
00:14:26.960Or if you have the persistent like every every day people hear about it for five seconds.
00:14:32.920That's what really forms people's opinions about about leaders.
00:14:36.980And we saw this with the SNC-Lavalin scandal.
00:14:39.280It was not just the one one off issue.
00:14:42.160It was the successive stories that started to come out and because of what Jody Wilson-Raybould did or even the We Charity scandal,
00:14:52.040the new developments in that that happened every single day, that's what really built the momentum that actually forced Bill Moreno to resign.
00:14:59.580So like these kind of dynamics, when they're happening in a such a short campaign, it's it can be extremely damaging.
00:15:07.460And I think we're going to start to see that in the polls in the coming days.
00:15:10.380I agree. I think this is one of the biggest bombshell of a story that I have seen.
00:15:34.700I said, this should be on the front page of every newspaper in Canada.
00:15:39.140The fact that it isn't tells you everything you need to know about our corrupt media who have sold out to the liberal parties and the corrupt liberal party who has sold out to China.
00:15:48.600Now, I think that like this is one of those instances where I'm glad to say I've been proven wrong because I thought that the media were going to ignore it.
00:15:56.940They tried, but it just became such a huge story once you had international observers, Human Rights Watch, you know, pro-democracy voices from China coming out, other MPs, including NDP MP Jenny Kwan, speaking about just how absolutely outrageous and unacceptable this is.
00:16:14.600And so to your point that it was on the front page of the National Post, albeit two days later than Juno News, report on it.
00:16:21.460I think it's good that the media has been shamed into covering this important story.
00:16:26.300And I agree that I think Mark Carney has made a huge mistake.
00:16:29.080To your point, the thing that Mark Carney wants to be talking about is the trade war because polls have showed, and you mentioned this in an earlier interview that we did,
00:16:38.240that when it comes to the main ballot box question, the country is still kind of split, right?
00:16:44.900Younger Canadians are still saying it's cost of living, more conservative-minded Canadians.
00:16:49.320I know that there's a lot of people in the comment section that are going to say,
00:16:51.920Candace, I'm a boomer, I'm older, and I still am voting for Polly Ev, so don't just brush us all with the same liberal brush.
00:17:22.740And those are the same people who are telling us that they're voting for the liberals.
00:17:27.580So let's just go through some of the abacus polls here.
00:17:29.920They asked which political party is best able to handle the impact on Donald Trump's decisions in Canada.
00:17:35.98054% say that's the top issue, whereas which political party is best able to deliver a change in direction, 46%.
00:17:45.320And then I want to go to this post by Kirk Lubinov on X.
00:17:53.320And I know I showed this to folks in a video essay that I did last week on Mark Carney, but he points this out, and it's just so crystal clear.
00:18:01.880You can see the most important factors when deciding who to vote for.
00:18:05.680So dealing with Trump, 50% of that older demographic, 60 years and older, 50% say that dealing with Trump is a top election issue.
00:18:12.700Whereas all the other age groups, 18 to 29, 30 to 44, 44 to 59, the majority or plurality of all of those, like 47, 51, 48%, are all reducing the cost of living.
00:18:27.860And then you can see how that translates into votes, that chart on the bottom.
00:18:33.040Actually, this is so interesting, David.
00:18:34.920Younger Canadians are saying that they're voting conservative.
00:18:37.920I've never seen this in my life, but here it says 18 to 29-year-olds, so those would be like the Gen Zers, 40% are voting conservative.
00:18:47.76030 to 39 and 40 to 49, you know, we've got millennials and Gen Xers there saying conservative, 35%, 38%, 50 to 59-year-olds, 43% saying conservatives, those are Gen X as well.
00:19:11.160I think it speaks to exactly why Mr. Paglia's messaging has been working so far to date.
00:19:17.360And it's because he's, as I mentioned before, at the rallies, he makes a point of shaking everyone's hands and listening to their actual concerns.
00:19:26.560It becomes his own mini sample of Canadians basically every night that he does it, at least when we were doing him during the leadership race and whatnot.
00:19:33.760So hearing the concerns about Canada's promise, about the fact that people are working so hard and they can't get ahead because the cost of living has gone out of control, they can't afford the down payment on a house.
00:19:46.380And then it takes them, in Toronto, it takes as long to save for a down payment as it used to take to actually pay for an entire, the 25-year amortization for an average house with an average income.
00:19:56.640Like, these are, like, society-destroying stats, right?
00:20:00.300Like, if you're talking about locking out an entire generation from the primary wealth-building tool, like, they're backed into a corner that they feel that there's literally no one that actually is listening to them except for Mr. Paglia.
00:20:14.760And so because he's been able to, number one, understand their issues at a level I've never seen with any other politician, but number two, the solutions that he actually puts forward are so practical and actually, like, are just such common sense.
00:20:27.140Like, say, for example, on housing, when he talks about, like, removing gatekeepers at the municipal level, understanding that, like, up to the biggest single cost when it comes to building housing is, in fact, government, taxes, delays, and all that stuff.
00:20:41.060Like, this is stuff that it makes inherent sense because the land, the labor, and the construction materials don't come even close to the selling price.
00:20:49.580So, like, making sure that policy actually speaks to those very real concerns is something that he makes a huge effort in doing.
00:20:56.800And contrast that with the challenges faced by the older generation, the boomers specifically, who have assets, like, generally speaking, homeownership is significantly higher under with this group of individuals.
00:21:11.000So, if it's not, if affordability and cost of living and homeownership are not nearly as big of an issue because you have inflation index pensions, like, there's obviously always still cost pressures, but they're not nearly as pronounced as they would be for typically younger families who are still, who are just starting out and they want to have a family and they feel that they don't have the financial means to be able to do so.
00:21:33.320Like, there's just simply a different level of emphasis put on these issues by the older generation.
00:21:40.700So, when they're sitting at home, they're retired and they're watching CBC or whatever, and they're seeing day in, day out the comments made by the President of the United States, and it's very concerning.
00:21:53.760It's like when he talks about 51st State, when he talks about, like, Governor Trudeau and things like that, like, there's an emotional component to this that they're seeing on repeat every single day that certainly elevates this issue to the top of mind for this demographic way more than it would for people that are every single day going to work and are struggling to keep up with the cost of living.
00:22:12.200Well, do you think that Mark Carney's more productive conversation, I mean, President Trump put out a post on social media last week after their call where he was quite respectful, you know, he didn't do the whole Governor Carney thing, he called him Prime Minister, and he said that they were probably going to have a great relationship.
00:22:29.820Do you think that that in some ways actually hurts Carney and that kind of mitigates the issue, or do you think that that provides assurances for those voters to say, okay, Carney is the guy that can deal with Trump?
00:22:41.420I think that what this actually points to more than anything is the fact of the personal conflict that Mr. Trump had with former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
00:22:53.200I think that specifically on the governor's stuff, I thought that was, like, very telling when he said that on Friday, like, referring to him by his proper title as Prime Minister of Canada.
00:23:02.600I think that it much more speaks to, like, the fact that Trudeau every single opportunity he got would drag President Trump's name through the mud, would call, like, and Freeland would call, as a slur, the conservatives, the maple syrup MAGA conservatives and stuff like that.
00:23:20.280Like, this is just meant to be – it was all meant to be effectively personal attacks on Mr. Trump just the second he left office.
00:23:27.420They had no idea that he was going to come back, right?
00:23:29.940So, like, I think time will tell as to exactly what the implications of this are.
00:23:35.220I think that if it's understood that the relationship – and we're going to see this on April 2nd – that's going to be very interesting to see if this actually continues.
00:23:47.260But, like, in terms of the level of debate and the level of quorum that's enjoyed between the United States and Canada, I think that's going to be actually very indicative of kind of the future impact that this issue will have on the Canadian electorate.
00:24:02.220If it's something that Canadians feel, like, there's progress that can be made, that it's not simply just petty, just, like, name-calling, like, Governor Trudeau and 51st State, because it's a very emotional issue.
00:24:15.600You're talking about something that you can't really counter with facts.
00:24:19.480This is about Canadian identity, Canadian culture, Canadian sovereignty at the end of the day.
00:24:23.460It's not inherently something that can be borne out with exclusively facts.
00:24:28.160So, if there can be the temperature taken off that, if the sting of the pain can actually be removed, I think that's going to have a profound impact on how these debates move forward throughout the election.
00:24:40.680Well, that'll be something really interesting to watch, David.
00:24:42.560Okay, I have one final question for you.
00:24:43.920I just plugged in 338's federal projections.
00:24:47.440So, they take all of the, again, this is a, take it with a grain of salt, because it's the legacy media and their pollsters exclusively.
00:24:54.140But here they have their projections, if an election were to take place now, I suppose.
00:25:00.480Here it shows that the Liberals, this is the average of all the polls, has 42% of the popular vote, which would translate to approximately 187 seats, which is enough for a majority.
00:25:11.900You can see the range there is 162, all the way up to 217.
00:25:39.380So, potentially very close, but it still shows Liberals ahead.
00:25:42.500Now, this is the thing that I want to point out to you, because here the third-place party would be the bloc, with approximately 6% of the voting.
00:25:51.780Obviously, that's national, so it's much more dense in Quebec.
00:25:54.700It would translate to 21 seats, approximately.
00:25:57.540But look at the NDP in single digits, 9%.
00:26:02.700They estimate the NDP getting approximately 5 seats.
00:26:06.400Again, this is if an election were held today.
00:26:07.980And again, grain of salt, because it's the legacy media's pollsters, an average of them.
00:26:12.120But look at the range of seats, David.