The Candice Malcolm Show - Signs the polls may be WRONG

00:00:00.000 China's killing our canola.

00:00:02.440 $45 billion gone.

00:00:05.560 Western farmers bleed.

00:00:08.060 Mark Carney?

00:00:10.040 Silent.

00:00:11.340 Made millions off Beijing's dime.

00:00:14.380 He won't fight.

00:00:15.920 He's Beijing's banker, not our prime minister.

00:00:19.240 Hi, I'm Candace Malcolm, and welcome to The Candace Malcolm Show.

00:00:31.060 We have a great episode for you today.

00:00:32.940 I want to spend some time on the episode today drilling into the polls.

00:00:36.820 I know a lot of you out there don't believe the polls.

00:00:39.660 You don't trust the polls.

00:00:41.040 We've seen a massive flip from the conservatives over to the liberals.

00:00:45.480 And for so many people out there, it's hard to believe that it's true.

00:00:49.460 Some of us just don't want to believe that it's true.

00:00:51.900 It can't be true.

00:00:52.780 How can Canadians be so naive to want to give Mark Carney and the liberals another term in office?

00:00:59.440 Why would we want to have a fourth term of this disastrous liberal policies?

00:01:04.380 Can Canadians really be so naive? 1.00

00:01:06.920 Well, to help me dive into the polls and figure out whether they are right,

00:01:11.220 whether they are misleading us,

00:01:14.060 I am joined today by David Murray, who is our in-house pollster at Juno News.

00:01:18.720 He works for One Persuasion, which is a government relations and strategy firm in Ontario,

00:01:23.480 and he's been going out into the field and doing polls for us at Juno News.

00:01:27.300 We're going to talk about those now.

00:01:28.400 So, David, thank you so much for joining the program.

00:01:30.860 Great to be with you.

00:01:31.920 Okay, so we had a poll last week,

00:01:34.380 and we talked about how there were some signs in this poll

00:01:37.740 that maybe the polls aren't right,

00:01:39.760 that there is a liberal mirage or that the liberals are kind of oversampled

00:01:46.180 or that the polls are over-exaggerating what they might be doing out there.

00:01:50.520 So the top line of the poll showed that the liberals maintain their lead,

00:01:54.280 that they are still in majority government territory, as unbelievable as it sounds.

00:01:58.280 They were polling at 41% in this poll, with the conservatives down at 35%,

00:02:03.200 which is quite low for the conservatives.

00:02:05.520 But then there was a couple of things lower down in the poll

00:02:08.860 that might give us some sign of hope, sign of optimism.

00:02:13.080 The first one was the results that you had in Quebec.

00:02:16.140 So why don't you walk us through those?

00:02:18.200 Sure.

00:02:18.360 So in Quebec, we found that actually 36% of those that responded

00:02:23.420 or actually supported the Bloc Québécois this time,

00:02:26.040 compared to 34% for the liberals and 22% for the conservatives.

00:02:30.480 Now, this is a very big uptick for the Bloc Québécois,

00:02:34.400 and I think that it's really important to note that it follows on the heels

00:02:39.080 of some pretty serious gaffes in the Quebec campaign of McCartney.

00:02:44.440 First of all, there was turning down the TVA debate.

00:02:47.380 There was also getting his candidate's name wrong

00:02:52.180 and misstating which massacre she actually survived.

00:02:56.980 There's a few things that are very core to Quebec culture that simply do not fly,

00:03:03.020 not to mention also his French skills at the same time.

00:03:07.240 So seeing this bump to the Bloc Québécois makes sense in our poll.

00:03:13.840 I know there's other pollsters that are showing that it's a bit of a deficit still,

00:03:19.440 but I'm fairly confident that given this, I think we'll start to see more and more

00:03:23.160 people come out and show the Bloc up on the upswing in the province of Quebec.

00:03:29.480 And so without Quebec, does Mark Kearney still have that path towards majority,

00:03:35.000 or is he really reliant on a strong showing in Quebec in order to win this election?

00:03:39.660 It is very much core and central to their campaign objectives,

00:03:44.760 like being very strong on the island of Montreal and then over in the Laurentides,

00:03:48.920 like up around like north of Ottawa, that area, and down into the eastern townships.

00:03:53.840 Like those are places that the Liberals hold like 20, 30 seats.

00:03:57.840 Like when you talk about the difference between a majority and minority government,

00:04:02.460 like that is absolutely critical for him to get.

00:04:04.400 Okay, so they're not doing as well in Quebec as they might like to.

00:04:09.660 Interestingly, you noted this, that this is the only poll showing that.

00:04:13.280 So all of the other pollsters out there are not showing this surge for the Bloc,

00:04:18.100 and you were sort of the outlier in that.

00:04:20.940 What should we read into that, Disrupt and See?

00:04:24.160 Well, just there's different methodologies, different people that are able to be surveyed.

00:04:29.420 There's, we use online panels for ours.

00:04:32.040 That's very different from interactive voice recognition,

00:04:35.660 which is IVR used by many other pollsters as well.

00:04:38.660 Like they just reach fundamentally different people.

00:04:40.940 Some say the bubbles in an aero truffle piece can take 34 seconds to melt in your mouth.

00:04:45.940 Sometimes the very amount you're stuck at the same red light.

00:04:48.660 Rich, creamy, chocolatey aero truffle.

00:04:52.440 Feel the aero bubbles melt.

00:04:54.480 It's mind bubbling.

00:04:56.420 Interesting.

00:04:57.120 Okay, so the fact that we are quite different there is one thing.

00:05:00.300 And then we did something different on this last poll the last time we were out in the field,

00:05:03.900 which is that we asked Canadians who they think their neighbors would be voting for.

00:05:09.720 And this is something interesting that I read about in the American election,

00:05:13.360 that one of the pollsters that really got it right when most of the other pollsters were wrong in the U.S.,

00:05:19.280 were using this method.

00:05:20.920 And the reason that they ask, who do you think your neighbors are voting for,

00:05:24.540 is because it might give signals that the individual might not want to tell the pollster.

00:05:29.740 Like we know that there's a phenomenon in the States about a shy conservative or a shy Trump voter,

00:05:35.060 where Americans who vote and support Republicans basically have such distrust for the legacy media and their pollsters,

00:05:43.360 that they don't want to tell the pollster the truth,

00:05:45.260 that they'll just either lie and say they're voting for the other candidate,

00:05:47.940 or they'll hang up the phone and they won't answer.

00:05:50.700 But then when asked this question of who is your neighbor voting,

00:05:54.460 or who are the people in your community voting for,

00:05:56.500 people might be more open to saying the truth, to saying,

00:06:01.300 oh, you know, I'm not going to tell you who I'm voting for,

00:06:03.500 but I will tell you that my neighbors and everyone in my community is supporting the right-wing candidate

00:06:08.740 or the conservatives or in the U.S., Donald Trump.

00:06:11.120 So that was the idea as to why we wanted to ask this neighbor question.

00:06:15.520 Why don't you walk us through what the results look like?

00:06:18.840 Sure. And this is not just a U.S. phenomenon.

00:06:21.280 This has been tried in multiple different types of electoral systems.

00:06:24.740 This was used in the French presidential election and also in the Bundestag election in Germany as well,

00:06:30.840 which was also very well studied for this phenomenon.

00:06:34.560 So actually what we found was that the conservatives were four points ahead

00:06:38.760 when you asked this neighbor question, and that's including 34 percent of people saying simply,

00:06:44.720 I do not know, which is totally fair.

00:06:46.880 But it showed 29 percent of people said that their neighbors, people in their community,

00:06:51.180 were voting for the conservatives and that 25 percent were voting voting liberal.

00:06:56.160 So when we also looked at it in Ontario specifically,

00:06:59.600 in our regular poll, we have the conservatives down by nine.

00:07:03.980 But when we look at this, ask this question specifically in Ontario, they're statistically tied.

00:07:10.320 Like it's 28 percent for conservatives, 29 for the liberals.

00:07:13.420 And what's also very interesting about this is when you actually broke this down by how people say they're voting,

00:07:19.260 how does that actually translate to how they think their neighbors are voting?

00:07:22.580 If you're voting conservatives for the conservatives,

00:07:25.300 59 percent of people that are voting conservatives also believe that their neighbors are voting conservatives.

00:07:29.060 Whereas for the liberals, 42 percent of those that are voting for liberals also believe that their neighbors are voting liberals,

00:07:36.080 voting for liberals.

00:07:37.140 And then for the NDP, this kind of reinforces some of the collapse narrative that we've seen play throughout this election for the NDP.

00:07:45.840 It's down to 37 percent of those that support the NDP, say their neighbors are supporting the NDP as well.

00:07:52.500 That is unbelievable.

00:07:53.320 So even though our poll shows that the liberals would be up 6 percent according to the methodology used,

00:08:00.440 when it comes to who your neighbors vote for, the conservatives actually have the lead, which is interesting.

00:08:05.140 Because if the reality out there is that the liberals are cruising towards a majority,

00:08:11.020 you would think that people would know that and they would talk to their friends and family

00:08:14.860 and hear people say, I'm voting liberal, I'm voting Mark Carney.

00:08:18.300 But that doesn't really seem to be the case.

00:08:20.060 It seems that more people are actually hearing the opposite, that people in their community,

00:08:24.380 their friends and family, their neighbors are supportive of Pierre Polyev, which, David,

00:08:29.720 I mean, you know, if I'm just going to trust my gut and what I'm seeing on the campaign,

00:08:34.240 look, Mark Carney had his launch event in Nepean over the weekend,

00:08:38.500 and someone counted that there was 47 people in the room, 47 people, OK?

00:08:43.440 I think I had more at my son's birthday party last month, whereas Pierre Polyev is having these massive rallies,

00:08:52.420 some of the biggest rallies in Canadian history, thousands upon thousands of people.

00:08:56.900 I think that there was 4,500 reported in Hamilton last week.

00:09:00.880 This, over the weekend, we saw 5,000 people in Surrey.

00:09:04.960 You know, this isn't like a downtown convention center that anyone can just wander into.

00:09:08.660 This is like something that you have to drive.

00:09:11.560 You can't even take public transit.

00:09:12.940 You have to drive.

00:09:13.560 You have to coordinate.

00:09:14.180 You have to carpool.

00:09:15.040 You have to figure out a way to get to this.

00:09:17.220 And to me, the excitement and the enthusiasm is behind Pierre Polyev and the conservatives.

00:09:24.280 And maybe that is what this neighbor poll is showing, that that is where the momentum is heading.

00:09:30.700 That's where the enthusiasm is headed.

00:09:31.880 What do you think?

00:09:32.900 I absolutely agree with that.

00:09:34.040 And we saw this during the leadership race as well, because when we started to see massive, massive people coming to our meet and greets,

00:09:43.600 we knew we were onto something very special.

00:09:45.400 It was a very engaged electorate.

00:09:46.680 It was people that really believed the message that we were saying, which was that if you work hard, you should be able to get ahead.

00:09:54.620 And currently, after 10 years, the lost liberal decade, it's not happening.

00:09:59.940 And so the need for change and embodying that change is actually a very, very powerful and engaging force, which is what I think is really happening behind the scenes as well.

00:10:14.100 Well, it's so interesting.

00:10:15.540 And I'm looking forward to it.

00:10:16.440 We have another poll in the field right now.

00:10:18.460 And so we're going to get the results later this week.

00:10:20.540 We'll have to have you back on later in the week to talk about that.

00:10:23.040 But while we're on this one, I want to take your attention over to an abacus data poll.

00:10:29.220 So this was released on Sunday, March 30th.

00:10:32.520 And according to David Coletto and abacus poll, he has the liberals and the conservatives tied.

00:10:39.740 But he says that the advantage would still be with the carny liberals.

00:10:44.040 Perhaps that's because of the efficiency of their vote.

00:10:46.900 We've seen that in the last two elections where the conservatives have won the popular vote.

00:10:51.080 They've received more votes across the country.

00:10:54.200 But because the liberals have just enough support and just enough ridings, they managed to come out ahead and get a minority government.

00:11:03.240 So abacus has 39-39.

00:11:06.260 What this shows me, though, because I went back and I looked at the last two weeks of polling, David, and this is from 338.

00:11:13.260 And so they put together, you know, the legacy media's choice of their pollsters.

00:11:17.900 And according to that group of pollsters, we're talking about ECOS and Ipsos and Main Street and all of the sort of legacy media go-to polls, they have the liberals up in every single one of them.

00:11:30.380 Every single one over the last two weeks has a liberal ahead.

00:11:33.400 I think you have to go back to, I think it's March 19th or March 20th before you have one that was tied or has the conservatives up by one point.

00:11:41.600 So the fact that abacus has a tie, to me, that's also showing a shift.

00:11:47.480 Last week we had you on and you said that you were seeing signs that Mark Carney had perhaps peaked.

00:11:52.560 Is this another sign that maybe, according to their own pollsters, that the liberals have peaked, they have no more room to grow, and they can only go down?

00:12:00.360 And when you look at the last few days of media attention, you know, we've just seen scandal after scandal after scandal for Mark Carney and the liberals.

00:12:07.400 The latest is this outrageous story of a liberal MP saying that Canadians should turn over the conservative MP to a bounty put on by the Chinese communist regime,

00:12:18.740 and that he should be turned over to a Chinese consulate so they can deal with him.

00:12:22.860 I think that there were several other scandals last week.

00:12:25.160 We learned that Mark Carney used a tax haven in Bermuda to save money on taxes so that he could avoid Canadian taxes.

00:12:32.100 He took out a bank loan from the communist Chinese government's central bank or state bank.

00:12:38.660 You know, we're learning a lot of things about Mark Carney.

00:12:41.660 Do you think any of those are starting to have an impact in the way that the electorate is viewing Mark Carney?

00:12:46.660 I do. And every day that the headline coming out of that campaign is negative is what we call a million dollar mistake because of the amount of advertising that's spent every single day by political parties.

00:12:58.340 It works out to about a million dollars a day.

00:12:59.960 And so if you're not talking about your message and you're put on your heels and you're unable to really pierce through that that that negative that negative narrative,

00:13:09.600 like what we're seeing with with Paul Chang right now, doesn't matter what he's saying on the campaign.

00:13:15.420 It's going to result in that's what the takeaway is going to be.

00:13:18.540 And it's in this business. It's typically death by a thousand cuts.

00:13:22.240 And when you when you talk about a lapse of judgment, which I think that this the Paul Chang saga really points to that,

00:13:29.500 like very definitively to to want to stand behind a person who literally made reference to a bounty on a conservative candidate.

00:13:41.920 I think that like typical everyday Canadians are going to see that at home,

00:13:46.440 especially given that it's really it's not just more independent media that are reporting this.

00:13:51.940 It was on the front page of the National Post and the Globe and Mail and I believe in CBC has a story on this.

00:13:58.140 Like this is permeating into the Main Street side and it really showcases a lack of judgment on behalf of Mr. Carney.

00:14:04.960 So the question is how much of this is going to to permeate?

00:14:09.420 Like we even see that there's a like now calls for a criminal investigation with the RCMP on this.

00:14:14.580 Like like this drip, drip, drip, this further development into these stories are going to be like this is issues management 101.

00:14:22.820 You either want to kill a story, like make it go away as fast as possible.

00:14:26.960 Or if you have the persistent like every every day people hear about it for five seconds.

00:14:32.920 That's what really forms people's opinions about about leaders.

00:14:36.980 And we saw this with the SNC-Lavalin scandal.

00:14:39.280 It was not just the one one off issue.

00:14:42.160 It was the successive stories that started to come out and because of what Jody Wilson-Raybould did or even the We Charity scandal,

00:14:52.040 the new developments in that that happened every single day, that's what really built the momentum that actually forced Bill Moreno to resign.

00:14:59.580 So like these kind of dynamics, when they're happening in a such a short campaign, it's it can be extremely damaging.

00:15:07.460 And I think we're going to start to see that in the polls in the coming days.

00:15:10.380 I agree. I think this is one of the biggest bombshell of a story that I have seen.

00:15:14.820 It's so unbelievable to me.

00:15:16.180 Now, I just want to point this out because this is kind of amusing.

00:15:18.260 The story broke on Friday, and at the time, no one was really talking about it, right?

00:15:23.060 It was broken by an independent pro-democracy paper in Canada, a Chinese paper.

00:15:28.560 And Juno News was one of the first people to pick it up.

00:15:30.960 I think we might have been the first people to write about it.

00:15:33.120 I wrote this on X.

00:15:34.700 I said, this should be on the front page of every newspaper in Canada.

00:15:39.140 The fact that it isn't tells you everything you need to know about our corrupt media who have sold out to the liberal parties and the corrupt liberal party who has sold out to China.

00:15:48.600 Now, I think that like this is one of those instances where I'm glad to say I've been proven wrong because I thought that the media were going to ignore it.

00:15:56.040 They did at first.

00:15:56.940 They tried, but it just became such a huge story once you had international observers, Human Rights Watch, you know, pro-democracy voices from China coming out, other MPs, including NDP MP Jenny Kwan, speaking about just how absolutely outrageous and unacceptable this is.

00:16:14.600 And so to your point that it was on the front page of the National Post, albeit two days later than Juno News, report on it.

00:16:20.900 Look, I'll take it.

00:16:21.460 I think it's good that the media has been shamed into covering this important story.

00:16:26.300 And I agree that I think Mark Carney has made a huge mistake.

00:16:29.080 To your point, the thing that Mark Carney wants to be talking about is the trade war because polls have showed, and you mentioned this in an earlier interview that we did,

00:16:38.240 that when it comes to the main ballot box question, the country is still kind of split, right?

00:16:44.900 Younger Canadians are still saying it's cost of living, more conservative-minded Canadians.

00:16:49.320 I know that there's a lot of people in the comment section that are going to say,

00:16:51.920 Candace, I'm a boomer, I'm older, and I still am voting for Polly Ev, so don't just brush us all with the same liberal brush.

00:16:59.100 I know, I know.

00:17:00.120 When I'm talking about the older generation, when I'm talking about boomers and saying that they're voting for Carney, not all of them.

00:17:06.060 You know, the good ones, God bless you, the ones watching this show, I know, you know, it's still 55-45, right?

00:17:13.340 It's just that the plurality or the majority of that age group tends to be more interested in the trade war as their topic issue.

00:17:20.920 Their top concern is Donald Trump.

00:17:22.740 And those are the same people who are telling us that they're voting for the liberals.

00:17:27.580 So let's just go through some of the abacus polls here.

00:17:29.920 They asked which political party is best able to handle the impact on Donald Trump's decisions in Canada.

00:17:35.980 54% say that's the top issue, whereas which political party is best able to deliver a change in direction, 46%.

00:17:45.320 And then I want to go to this post by Kirk Lubinov on X.

00:17:53.320 And I know I showed this to folks in a video essay that I did last week on Mark Carney, but he points this out, and it's just so crystal clear.

00:18:01.880 You can see the most important factors when deciding who to vote for.

00:18:05.680 So dealing with Trump, 50% of that older demographic, 60 years and older, 50% say that dealing with Trump is a top election issue.

00:18:12.700 Whereas all the other age groups, 18 to 29, 30 to 44, 44 to 59, the majority or plurality of all of those, like 47, 51, 48%, are all reducing the cost of living. 0.95

00:18:27.860 And then you can see how that translates into votes, that chart on the bottom.

00:18:33.040 Actually, this is so interesting, David.

00:18:34.920 Younger Canadians are saying that they're voting conservative.

00:18:37.920 I've never seen this in my life, but here it says 18 to 29-year-olds, so those would be like the Gen Zers, 40% are voting conservative.

00:18:46.880 Wow.

00:18:47.760 30 to 39 and 40 to 49, you know, we've got millennials and Gen Xers there saying conservative, 35%, 38%, 50 to 59-year-olds, 43% saying conservatives, those are Gen X as well.

00:19:01.060 And then the boomers, 50% liberal. 0.78

00:19:03.500 It's the only demographic, according to this chart, that has the liberals up ahead.

00:19:09.260 What do you make of all this?

00:19:11.160 I think it speaks to exactly why Mr. Paglia's messaging has been working so far to date.

00:19:17.360 And it's because he's, as I mentioned before, at the rallies, he makes a point of shaking everyone's hands and listening to their actual concerns.

00:19:26.560 It becomes his own mini sample of Canadians basically every night that he does it, at least when we were doing him during the leadership race and whatnot.

00:19:33.760 So hearing the concerns about Canada's promise, about the fact that people are working so hard and they can't get ahead because the cost of living has gone out of control, they can't afford the down payment on a house.

00:19:46.380 And then it takes them, in Toronto, it takes as long to save for a down payment as it used to take to actually pay for an entire, the 25-year amortization for an average house with an average income.

00:19:56.640 Like, these are, like, society-destroying stats, right?

00:20:00.300 Like, if you're talking about locking out an entire generation from the primary wealth-building tool, like, they're backed into a corner that they feel that there's literally no one that actually is listening to them except for Mr. Paglia.

00:20:14.760 And so because he's been able to, number one, understand their issues at a level I've never seen with any other politician, but number two, the solutions that he actually puts forward are so practical and actually, like, are just such common sense.

00:20:27.140 Like, say, for example, on housing, when he talks about, like, removing gatekeepers at the municipal level, understanding that, like, up to the biggest single cost when it comes to building housing is, in fact, government, taxes, delays, and all that stuff.

00:20:41.060 Like, this is stuff that it makes inherent sense because the land, the labor, and the construction materials don't come even close to the selling price.

00:20:49.580 So, like, making sure that policy actually speaks to those very real concerns is something that he makes a huge effort in doing.

00:20:56.800 And contrast that with the challenges faced by the older generation, the boomers specifically, who have assets, like, generally speaking, homeownership is significantly higher under with this group of individuals.

00:21:11.000 So, if it's not, if affordability and cost of living and homeownership are not nearly as big of an issue because you have inflation index pensions, like, there's obviously always still cost pressures, but they're not nearly as pronounced as they would be for typically younger families who are still, who are just starting out and they want to have a family and they feel that they don't have the financial means to be able to do so.

00:21:33.320 Like, there's just simply a different level of emphasis put on these issues by the older generation.

00:21:40.700 So, when they're sitting at home, they're retired and they're watching CBC or whatever, and they're seeing day in, day out the comments made by the President of the United States, and it's very concerning.

00:21:52.280 It's very belittling.

00:21:53.760 It's like when he talks about 51st State, when he talks about, like, Governor Trudeau and things like that, like, there's an emotional component to this that they're seeing on repeat every single day that certainly elevates this issue to the top of mind for this demographic way more than it would for people that are every single day going to work and are struggling to keep up with the cost of living.

00:22:12.200 Well, do you think that Mark Carney's more productive conversation, I mean, President Trump put out a post on social media last week after their call where he was quite respectful, you know, he didn't do the whole Governor Carney thing, he called him Prime Minister, and he said that they were probably going to have a great relationship.

00:22:29.820 Do you think that that in some ways actually hurts Carney and that kind of mitigates the issue, or do you think that that provides assurances for those voters to say, okay, Carney is the guy that can deal with Trump?

00:22:40.280 I think time will tell.

00:22:41.420 I think that what this actually points to more than anything is the fact of the personal conflict that Mr. Trump had with former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

00:22:53.200 I think that specifically on the governor's stuff, I thought that was, like, very telling when he said that on Friday, like, referring to him by his proper title as Prime Minister of Canada.

00:23:02.600 I think that it much more speaks to, like, the fact that Trudeau every single opportunity he got would drag President Trump's name through the mud, would call, like, and Freeland would call, as a slur, the conservatives, the maple syrup MAGA conservatives and stuff like that.

00:23:20.280 Like, this is just meant to be – it was all meant to be effectively personal attacks on Mr. Trump just the second he left office.

00:23:27.420 They had no idea that he was going to come back, right?

00:23:29.940 So, like, I think time will tell as to exactly what the implications of this are.

00:23:35.220 I think that if it's understood that the relationship – and we're going to see this on April 2nd – that's going to be very interesting to see if this actually continues.

00:23:47.260 But, like, in terms of the level of debate and the level of quorum that's enjoyed between the United States and Canada, I think that's going to be actually very indicative of kind of the future impact that this issue will have on the Canadian electorate.

00:24:02.220 If it's something that Canadians feel, like, there's progress that can be made, that it's not simply just petty, just, like, name-calling, like, Governor Trudeau and 51st State, because it's a very emotional issue.

00:24:15.600 You're talking about something that you can't really counter with facts.

00:24:19.480 This is about Canadian identity, Canadian culture, Canadian sovereignty at the end of the day.

00:24:23.460 It's not inherently something that can be borne out with exclusively facts.

00:24:28.160 So, if there can be the temperature taken off that, if the sting of the pain can actually be removed, I think that's going to have a profound impact on how these debates move forward throughout the election.

00:24:40.680 Well, that'll be something really interesting to watch, David.

00:24:42.560 Okay, I have one final question for you.

00:24:43.920 I just plugged in 338's federal projections.

00:24:47.440 So, they take all of the, again, this is a, take it with a grain of salt, because it's the legacy media and their pollsters exclusively.

00:24:54.140 But here they have their projections, if an election were to take place now, I suppose.

00:25:00.480 Here it shows that the Liberals, this is the average of all the polls, has 42% of the popular vote, which would translate to approximately 187 seats, which is enough for a majority.

00:25:11.900 You can see the range there is 162, all the way up to 217.

00:25:15.980 Oh my goodness, goodness gracious.

00:25:17.600 If Canadians give the Liberals a fourth term with 217 seats, I don't know.

00:25:22.200 I don't know if I can take it.

00:25:23.480 But here it shows the Conservatives with 38%.

00:25:26.900 Again, 38% in some years is enough to actually win the election, 38% of the vote.

00:25:31.980 But you can see how that translates into seats, approximately 129 seats.

00:25:36.420 The range is 102 to 152.

00:25:39.380 So, potentially very close, but it still shows Liberals ahead.

00:25:42.500 Now, this is the thing that I want to point out to you, because here the third-place party would be the bloc, with approximately 6% of the voting.

00:25:51.780 Obviously, that's national, so it's much more dense in Quebec.

00:25:54.700 It would translate to 21 seats, approximately.

00:25:57.540 But look at the NDP in single digits, 9%.

00:26:02.700 They estimate the NDP getting approximately 5 seats.

00:26:06.400 Again, this is if an election were held today.

00:26:07.980 And again, grain of salt, because it's the legacy media's pollsters, an average of them.

00:26:12.120 But look at the range of seats, David.

00:26:14.960 Zero to 12.

00:26:17.260 Zero.

00:26:18.400 That is part of the possibility in this universe that the NDP could get completely wiped out down to zero seats.

00:26:28.440 Unbelievable.

00:26:29.840 This is such an interesting proposition, because, like, would Canada be a better country if we just had two parties,

00:26:36.220 kind of like the Democrats and the Republicans, or in the UK you have Labour and the Conservatives,

00:26:41.600 just a true right-wing party and a left-wing party, left and right,

00:26:45.460 and not have this weird situation where you have multiple parties.

00:26:49.120 I mean, I think that it might spell trouble for the Conservatives,

00:26:52.740 given that it seems that there are more left-wing voters in Canada than there are Conservative voters.

00:26:57.300 But I can't overscore this, overstate this enough, that the NDP might get completely wiped out down to zero seats.

00:27:06.680 What do you think?

00:27:08.000 I am not enthusiastic about this proposition at all.

00:27:12.640 And also, 217 MPs for any party is going to be challenging no matter what.

00:27:18.780 But the fact of the matter is, if the NDP is relegated down to minivan status,

00:27:25.840 like we saw the Ontario Liberals under Kathleen Wynne, that's a problem for the country, as far as I'm concerned.

00:27:30.580 I think there's always going to be a cohort of the more hardcore socialist side of Canadians.

00:27:39.740 And even in the UK, they have Labour, they have Conservative, but they also have the Liberal Democrats as well,

00:27:44.800 and also the SNP at the same time, that also provide different policy angles and different perspectives as well.

00:27:52.240 But I think that what really separates us, especially from the UK, is the fact that in the UK,

00:27:59.460 they actually have significant powers given to individual MPs to hold their own leaders accountable when it's in their own caucuses.

00:28:08.140 We really don't have those powers.

00:28:09.600 We have some through the Reform Act of Michael Chong, but fundamentally, it's whoever sits in the executive side of that party,

00:28:17.040 whoever's in the Prime Minister's office or the leader of the opposition.

00:28:22.300 There's a significant amount of power that they have, much more than you'd see in the United Kingdom.

00:28:28.500 We saw Liz Truss.

00:28:29.620 We saw Theresa May get forced out by her own colleagues. 0.94

00:28:33.300 I think that that operates as a necessary check and balance within their system.

00:28:37.920 Translate that over to ours.

00:28:39.940 If we have a two-party system, we have a right wing and a left wing,

00:28:43.740 and you have a coalition of Bay Street bankers plus the Champagne Socialists,

00:28:50.280 and then trying to get into the working class blue collar.

00:28:53.060 If you try to imagine a marriage of NDP and Liberal Party,

00:28:58.420 whoever becomes the leader is going to have significant power without the necessary checks to be able to keep the entire coalition happy.

00:29:11.520 And so, depending on what happens in the leadership race,

00:29:13.900 which you can, based on your tactics of campaigning, based on your proficiency,

00:29:20.100 you could have some fairly extremist folks in those seats of power.

00:29:25.240 Or now, mind you, we also can make that argument that's still happening today with what we see through Mark Carney,

00:29:31.400 through what we've seen through the legacy of Prime Minister Trudeau.

00:29:34.800 But I think that reducing it down to two parties makes that even more likely,

00:29:38.820 and I think that's just fundamentally not helpful for the Canadian political discourse.

00:29:42.420 Well, it's so interesting that Mark Carney, a banker, a wealthy multimillionaire who's, you know,

00:29:49.340 made his money working at Goldman Sachs, is somehow the party leader that may decimate the left wing party.

00:29:56.280 The fact that they don't have a viable criticism of Mark Carney from the political left,

00:30:02.340 there's so much room there.

00:30:03.300 Considering that Mark Carney has tacked to the right and is copying Pierre Polyev's very conservative policies,

00:30:09.700 you would think that there would be a huge opportunity for the Social Democrats and the NDP in this country.

00:30:15.800 The fact that they don't, I think, David, I think that Canadians are taking their frustration

00:30:19.680 of the last nine years out on Jagmeet Singh, because Justin Trudeau's gone now.

00:30:23.900 They see that Mark Carney is different enough, even though those of us who pay attention know that he's not.

00:30:28.640 But to the average Canadian that's not paying close attention,

00:30:31.480 they see him as a new face, and they still see the old Jagmeet Singh,

00:30:35.100 the guy that propped up Justin Trudeau, he's being punished in the polls.

00:30:39.220 Pierre Polyev's doing great.

00:30:40.640 You know, he's got huge rallies.

00:30:42.340 He's got a great team around him.

00:30:44.300 He's still averaging 38%, which, again, is enough to win in other elections.

00:30:50.800 In the past, conservatives have won with 38%.

00:30:53.060 And the fact that he's not winning doesn't really have a lot to do with what he's doing,

00:30:57.740 but it has more to do with the total collapse of the NDP

00:31:00.740 and how many, many NDP voters are running to Mark Carney and the Liberals

00:31:05.260 as a countervailing force to Donald Trump.

00:31:07.820 We had a reporter on the ground at Nathan Phillips Square during that Elbows Up rally,

00:31:12.920 Noah Jarvis, he was talking to people on the ground there.

00:31:15.740 He spoke to a lot of people who are lifelong NDP supporters

00:31:19.000 who have never voted Liberal in their life,

00:31:20.680 but will be voting Liberal this time around because of that reason,

00:31:24.380 that they want to stop Donald Trump.

00:31:26.840 And so I think, again, this is the biggest story of the campaign so far.

00:31:30.740 The campaign is far from over.

00:31:32.320 We still have three weeks left to go, and so much can happen.

00:31:35.500 We're really looking forward to those debates

00:31:37.040 because Pierre Polyev is such a skilled debater,

00:31:39.260 and I think that will give him a huge opportunity

00:31:41.000 to point out to Canadians some of the flaws with Mark Carney.

00:31:45.360 He certainly has his work cut out for him,

00:31:47.600 just with the various factors that are beyond his control.

00:31:51.100 Well, David Murray, you're our in-house pollster at Juno News this election cycle.

00:31:54.720 Usually we put these interviews behind our paywall,

00:31:57.320 so I've been having a weekly session with David.

00:32:00.000 They provide us our own unique numbers, which we publish every week.

00:32:03.880 We do writings to watch, so David has picked, I think,

00:32:07.160 a couple of dozen or a dozen or two swing writings,

00:32:10.720 which will determine the election, and we have tons of data

00:32:13.580 and a really interesting analysis of each of those writings.

00:32:16.640 So all of that information is exclusive to our paid subscribers over at Juno News.

00:32:22.240 You can subscribe for as little as $10 a month,

00:32:24.900 so the price of, you know, lunch at Tim Hortons or a couple of coffees.

00:32:29.320 Instead, come over, support independent media.

00:32:32.360 You get access to all of our exclusive polling,

00:32:35.280 all of these conversations that we're having,

00:32:37.460 and much, much more.

00:32:38.880 A lot of our interviews and investigative research

00:32:41.800 and our documentaries are behind that paywall.

00:32:43.900 So we really encourage you to head on over, subscribe,

00:32:46.920 support our work, support independent pollsters like David Murray as well.

00:32:51.380 David, thank you so much for your time,

00:32:53.200 and we're really looking forward to your next report later this week.

00:32:56.960 See you soon.

00:32:58.180 All right, folks.

00:32:59.060 Thanks so much for tuning in.

00:33:00.440 That's all the time we have for today.

00:33:01.720 We'll be back again tomorrow with all the news.

00:33:03.700 I'm Candice Malcolm.

00:33:04.520 This is The Candice Malcolm Show.

00:33:05.740 Thank you, and God bless.

00:33:13.900 Thank you.

The Candice Malcolm Show - April 01, 2025

Signs the polls may be WRONG

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