The Biggest LOSERS of the 2025 Canadian Election
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Summary
Candace Malan and Wyatt Claypool recap the results of the Canadian election and talk about who are the winners and losers. They also discuss the possibility of a third party winning a majority government, and whether or not that's even possible.
Transcript
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Hi, I'm Candace Malcolm, and this is The Candace Malcolm Show.
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Obviously, we had the big election on Monday night.
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Thank you, everyone, who tuned into our live broadcast.
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We didn't quite get there, but we had a fantastic night.
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So we really appreciate everyone who joined us.
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Because the election went so late, our broadcast ended at 2 a.m., not all of the dust had sort
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So we're going to do a recap today of the election and talk about who I think are the
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biggest winners and the biggest losers of the campaign.
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There were a lot of losers, and we're going to go through them all.
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Before we get going, I'm just going to ask you to quickly like the video.
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Just takes a second of your time, and it really helps us out.
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Okay, to join me on this episode, we're going to have a lot of fun today on The Candace Malcolm
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And I am pleased to be joined by one of my favorite political commentators, Wyatt Claypool.
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He is the founder of the National Telegraph and a political commentator based in Calgary.
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Okay, so let's just go through the final count.
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I think most of the votes are in, but there will be, of course, a few recounts.
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So the way that it all finished is that the Liberal Party of Canada is sitting at 168
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And then next we have the Conservatives' 144 seats, 8,089,000 votes, which represents 41.3%.
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The NDP had seven seats, 1.2 million, which was 6.3 seats.
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Interestingly, the Bloc also had 6.3% of the vote, but they have a much more efficient
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breakdown because they only run candidates in one province in Quebec.
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Green Party effectively got wiped out in this election.
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One seat for their crazy leader, Elizabeth May, and 1.3% of the vote, 240,000 in change
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And the PPC also got wiped out, zero seats, only 140,000 votes, 0.7% of the campaign.
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So the Liberals lost a closely contested seat to the Bloc Quebecois after vote validation.
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I think it ended up switching by like 70 votes, which is enough to switch it over.
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So sometimes in democracy, it really comes down like every single vote matters.
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It was really won just in a handful of seats across the country.
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Remember, the magic number to get a majority is 172.
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It looks like I think there'll be a handful of recounts, but my guess is it'll roughly stay
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And so I know that there's been some speculation about this idea that all the Liberals would
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have to do is convince four NDP or four Green or four Block members, or not Green, one
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Block, four Greens to just cross the floor and come on over to the Liberals.
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I think that's highly unlikely because just as you may say you can find four people from
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other parties to cross the floor to the Liberals, you could also very easily have four Liberals
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be convinced to cross the floor to the Conservatives to spoil it for Mark Kearney and be given,
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you know, a special position in the Conservative Party.
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So I don't see any pathway to Mark Kearney magically coming up with a majority here.
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It's an arbitrary argument that, well, look, they only need five seats.
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So why don't five NDP MPs move over so then they can fill the speaker position and they
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can have their full majority without having to tie break votes?
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It's like, OK, but and I've said this in many shows before, there is a reason why the
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Liberal Party and the NDP are different parties.
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It's not just because they just decided they like the color orange better.
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Jagmeet Singh had very much obscured the differences between the Liberals and the NDP, but like
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what many NDP MPs have said, they are not crossing the floor.
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And I think that they'd be fools to not see what the party is going to be like once they
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They have been through three cycles with the same guy.
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And if they're smart, they'll actually try and re-embrace the blue collar labor vote
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And they'll probably treat this minority government more like Jack Layton treated the 2004 Paul
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Because back then, Jack Layton understood, even though, yes, the Liberals are more like
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them than they are the Conservatives, that he needed to be able to pull the plug if he
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was actually going to be able to gain more political power.
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Jagmeet Singh lost because he had no red line that he was willing, if crossed, to pull the
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Well, and we know he came out the week of the campaign and basically just said, we purposefully
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propped up the Liberal government, even though we didn't agree with it, because we were just
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dead set against Pierre Polyev and the Conservatives winning majority, which is totally counter to
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any type of principle or even good strategic management of a political party.
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Okay, I want to move on to talk about the PPC vote split.
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There was a lot of comments and concern over this.
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So from our account here at Juno News, we found that there were three seats where the
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PPC vote was the difference, was the difference.
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So Brampton East, you can see here that the Liberals got 23,600 votes.
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And the PPC came in right there with 2,300, enough to spoil it.
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Again, that's the difference, more than the difference right there.
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Finally, just a little bit further over, in Kitchener-Costoga, the Liberals won with 30,000.
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The Conservatives, 29,000, almost 500, basically.
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So such small margins and such a small number from the PPC.
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I, again, I don't know for sure that every single PPC member, every single PPC voter,
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I think that a lot of people who go to the PPC are just protesting the system.
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And so I don't know that those were easy, easily, you could easily turn those people
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into Conservative voters when it's such a small number.
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But at the same time, obviously, it's frustrating to Conservatives to see just those three seats.
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Obviously, three seats won't make a difference.
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Like we talked about, the Liberals did win by enough to have more of a comfortable minority.
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I would sort of probably split those two areas into two different situations with the PPC.
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In Brampton, the situation wasn't so much that, oh, don't they know that they should
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be voting for the Conservatives in order to stop the Liberals?
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They should be trying to get rid of the Liberal government.
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The problem was, is that in Brampton East, the PPC candidate, Jeff Wall, had tried to
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contest one of the Ridings Conservative Party nominations and was arbitrarily kicked out.
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And so it was less that he was running for the PPC because he liked the PPC and more so
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that he was looking for an easy political vehicle to go after the party after having removed
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And he ended up having a few other Hindu Canadians join him in running for the PPC in the Brampton
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They can say maybe he should suck it up and just get over it.
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It's just that's politics at the end of the day, that if you end up messing with the wrong
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person, they may not just go home and feel sad about it.
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And then in Kitchener, Conestoga, this is more of, I would say, a lot of PPC guys, and
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I couldn't possibly vote O'Toole, and I'm in a safe Conservative riding.
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But the people who are left over, I would say, are very much like the Green Party.
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They are too anti-establishment to vote for any mainstream party.
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And they will never come over because their actual list of demands will shift just so that
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they can keep saying that they're a little bit too pure for the Conservative Party.
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I made a video at one point where I had gone over some of the issues that PPC people were
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having, some of the candidates on why you should vote for them, not the Conservative.
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It was easily debunkable that they were saying, well, you know, Polyev has never stood up against
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Well, Polyev has never stood up against, he never stood up against lockdowns or mandates.
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It's like, it's, you can just easily verify he did.
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But these people, even if you ended up showing them that he did, it's still not good enough
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because that's not the point of the party to actually get some principled policy position.
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And I think that the idea is that you always vote for the most Conservative candidate that can
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I think, I didn't vote in the leadership contest because I'm not a Conservative Party member,
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but I would have been happy if Maxine Bernier had won the leadership of the party after Stephen
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I thought he was really good on cultural issues, really good on economic issues like supply
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He barely lost the leadership race to Andrew Scheer, right?
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And it seemed like he could have had a great future in the party.
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I understand in 2019 why you might have voted for Maxine Bernier to protest against the Conservative
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Party going too soft, specifically on immigration, refusing to talk about it.
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In 2021, definitely the COVID issue was madness.
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Like, I'll tell you, Wyatt, watching the 2021 debate, all candidates debate with the leaders
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and seeing that ridiculous propaganda video that they all put out promoting the vaccine,
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speaking in unison, speaking like, honestly, like, it was creepy.
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And to have the Conservative do that, like, the whole idea of a Conservative is our values
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are different and they articulate the differences and they don't just succumb to the liberal
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So seeing a leader succumb to the liberal narrative, I'm all for it.
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I'm all for, in 2021, voting for the People's Party.
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But this time around, I just didn't see the imperative.
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Yeah, I was just going to, I hated that stupid, we're all in this together video.
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I don't know, there's never a moment where speaking in unison isn't creepy or as if it's
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going to put people at ease because all these people are reading a script.
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But yeah, the PPC now, they're basically a dead party.
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The only thing I find annoying, because the thing is, I don't even not support small parties.
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I flew on my own expense to Ontario in February just to hit doors for the new blue party of
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Ontario because I don't think that Doug Ford is a good premier and I don't think the
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So you should be trying to prop up an alternative.
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The problem is, my problem with the PPC, and this is a problem with all the elections,
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I don't like when people take small donor money and they basically just burn it on pretending
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like they're going to be standing up to the system or something like that.
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I want to get to the biggest winners and the biggest losers in the election.
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We'll get to a little bit more on Maxine Bernier in that.
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I will say the biggest winner of the election was Mark Carney and the Liberals.
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They pulled off something absolutely remarkable.
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The reversal in fortunes that we saw in this country.
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Mark Carney took a party that was down and out.
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There was a certain point at the early part of 2025 where the NDP was actually pulling ahead
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of Justin Trudeau and the Liberals, it was possible that the Liberals were going to get
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Mark Carney showed up and managed to do something that just rarely happens in politics, a total
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He had the legacy media working in overdrive for him.
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It was, I've said it before on the show, it was like a black swan event where you had
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Donald Trump making these ridiculous comments, Canadians getting really worried about the
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literal annexation or the effects of trade wars.
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Mark Carney coming in as this sort of stable, competent, middle-of-the-road banker.
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We know that that isn't true, but so many Canadians fell for it and you have to hand
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it to them for being just so manipulative and so good at it.
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It's like they're so good at being evil and they pulled it off.
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I think more winners in this election were certainly independent media, independent citizen
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You saw a whole new class of individuals, so many of them we had on our show.
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But they were there breaking it down, getting huge numbers on platforms like YouTube, TikTok,
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And for me, I've been doing this independent media gig for the last, I think, four elections,
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This was the first one where I really felt like I just had good company.
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There were so many people around saying the same kind of thing, doing the same kind of
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I think in previous elections, it was just like true north and the rebel basically fighting
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And this time it felt like there was more of a critical mass.
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Obviously, we didn't have enough to push it over for the good side, for the conservatives.
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But I think that the future is being laid out in front of us.
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I think that the legacy media really have lost their grip.
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And I hope and I pray that this was the last election that they were actually able to set
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the narrative because, yes, we put cracks in the narrative.
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And so I think, yes, we were the winners, but the legacy media still had their day.
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I'm very excited about a handful of freshmen or first time elected MPs.
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People like Andrew Lawton, who we had on the show yesterday, former True North journalist.
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Matt Strauss, who was an incredible fighter for the fighting against the madness in a group
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Aaron Gunn, documentary filmmaker and independent journalist out in British Columbia was elected.
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And David Bextie, Kian Bextie's father, was elected.
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So there's a whole slate of new conservative candidates that I am very excited about.
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Final winner for me was Danielle Smith and for the future of Alberta.
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She just came across as being so strong, so confident in her views, really speaking differently
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than the crowd and being able to articulate herself.
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And I think that the movements, the strategy that she's had post-election, changing the
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citizenship initiative, referendum requirements, and coming out demanding a reset in the relationship
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I think Danielle Smith definitely came out as a big winner of the campaign.
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OK, Wyatt, what did you think of my winner's list?
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I thought especially the one about independent media is good, not just because I work in
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independent media, you know, you don't exist just to gas each other up.
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Back in the last election, there wasn't really a big collection of people covering the news.
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It was, yeah, just a few collections of networks, a few niche YouTubers, and that was it.
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It hurts me to say it, but a big winner of the night was Bruce Fanjoy, a man who had been
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mocked for probably two years trying to take on Pierre Polyev in Carlton.
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And was he helped by a big boundary redistribution?
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Was he helped by the fact that Pierre Polyev really didn't have time to run his own riding?
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But, you know, if you win the seat, you still get the credit for it.
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But I will even add that the Conservative Party still had a good night.
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There were certain areas, you could say, that the southwestern Ontario Conservatives did really,
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We won Windsor West and both Windsor ridings, despite some of those not having gone Conservative
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And so there are a lot of good highlights around the country for the Conservatives.
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The fact that the Conservatives' vote has actually become far more efficient than it was in previous
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In previous elections, they could win the popular vote and still come in with only 119 seats.
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And now you can actually lose the popular vote and you can come in nearly almost at what
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If one point just shifted from the Liberals to the Conservatives, it may be a completely
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And I think you're right where the thing that the legacy media did and Mark Carney had
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done, yes, they won the night, so they get the credit still.
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At the same time, it's one of those tricks you can only pull once.
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And my evidence is Chinese interference in this election did not go very well.
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Chinese Canadians voted Conservative by quite a large margin because you can't pull the
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In 2021, they scared Chinese Canadians into thinking the Conservatives blame you for COVID
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But if you live potentially in a small media bubble of mostly listening to a few Chinese
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publications sent to you over WeChat, you may be influenced.
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And they were just going to vote for whoever was going to perform well on drugs, crime and
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And we can go through some of the writings that have a high Chinese population, like
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Markham Unionville, like the Richmond writings out in British Columbia that did go Conservative.
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So again, yeah, I did an entire show on Tuesday of the good news from the election.
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And I did think that the Conservatives overperformed.
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I mean, I was going through some of the writings, Wyatt, in the 905, like Richmond Hill, the Vaughn
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I mean, they were winning with like rural Alberta number.
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Now I know David Bexty got elected with over 80%.
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So there was no riding in Ontario where a Conservative got more than 80%.
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But I mean, Melissa Lansman, one with a higher percentage in Thornhill, which is basically
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Toronto, than Michelle Rempel did in Calgary, in King Vaughn, 62%.
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So, you know, big numbers for the Conservatives, very close to Toronto.
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Everybody wants to know who are our biggest losers of the election.
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Number one, by far, far and away, the absolute biggest loser in the election, probably the
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That award is going to go to Jagmeet Singh and the NDP, absolutely wiped out, losing
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Jagmeet Singh loses his own riding, will go down in history as a laughingstock and a total
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joke who enabled the worst government in Canadian history.
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And I want you to get a load of this, Wyatt, because I noticed this from an individual named
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He writes, the number of campaigns that failed to get 10% of the vote, thereby not qualifying
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for a juicy Elections Canada rebate check to repay bank loans and replenish the local
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First of all, it is so absurd that taxpayers subsidize political parties in this country.
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I mean, this is so ridiculous that the Elections Canada gives you a rebate check for the amount
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of money that you spend on the campaign if you hit a certain threshold.
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But anyways, I disagree with the policy, but this is the reality of it.
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So here is a list of conservative, liberal, NDP, block, green, and PPC, the number of
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campaigns that they ran, and then the number that were below the 10%.
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The NDP had 296 out of 342 that were below 10%, meaning they won't get the rebate, meaning
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I think the party is going to go bankrupt because if you know political campaigns, a lot of
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They're literally running their campaign on debt in the hopes that the government is going
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In 87% of the ridings that they ran in, they're not getting the money.
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Likewise, the block, sorry, the Green Party didn't make the threshold in 98% of the ridings
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They only made it in four ridings and the PPC in 100.
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100% they might have to sell the Layton building because that's how they usually were funding
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You put that up as like proof that you can fundraise to a bank.
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Then you take out a massive few million dollar loan on the Jack Layton building in Ottawa.
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And what I've heard from NDP insiders is it doesn't matter how that money was raised and
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They just act like a kleptocracy after the election and steal all of the rebate checks
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that every single riding was given until they actually pay off the building.
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And then the local ridings can start to fundraise their own money again, knowing that they
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will have to pay back their rebate to the party at once the election is over.
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The thing with Jagmeet Singh too is that he probably didn't even benefit the liberals against
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The blue collar ridings that the NDP held, the Conservatives grabbed them.
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That's why they were winning so well in Windsor.
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It's not that those were NDP ridings before, but the whole point is that the NDP had a substantial
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Oftentimes with the ridings where the Conservatives came in third, but they ended up grabbing up
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pretty much 100% of the NDP vote because the type of person voting NDP in that area is
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far more likely to go Conservative if the NDP pulls out and just puts up a paper candidate
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And then the other ridings that the NDP lost were in like downtown Vancouver, downtown Toronto,
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where you should be competing as hard as possible because this is a riding where it's either
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But Jagmeet Singh had managed this election so poorly that it's basically just because of
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the personality and character of some of their MPs that were able to hold on that got them
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So he ended up stripping out every single virtue for somebody on the left that the NDP held.
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And so now the party basically came in a distant, distant fourth for what?
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The benefit of giving like Mark Carney a slightly bigger minority when they could have had those
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They've got their work cut out for them, whether they do want to rebuild or whether they just
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want to fold and put their votes in with the Liberals and then we'll have a real two-party
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I want to move on because we've got a few more names to get to here.
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So we talked about them quite a bit at the beginning of the show.
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But Maxime Bernier and the People's Party were losers.
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And the losing didn't stop for Maxime Bernier on Election Day.
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He came out afterwards on X and he was just whining and he sounded like a sore loser.
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I'm going to read what he had to say here on X.
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He said, so in this election, the PBC lost roughly 700,000 of its 840,000 votes from 2021,
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You got wiped out and that's how you're responding.
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He writes, I suspect the vast majority voted for the Conservatives having to succumb to the
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I will admit I voted for Maxime Bernier and the People's Party in 2021 as well for the opposite
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I was living in Rosedale at the time, University of Rosedale, Christopher Young's riding, and
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And I figured I might as well do the principal's vote.
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I liked Maxime Bernier better than Aaron O'Toole.
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I didn't want to reward the Conservatives for running a terrible left-wing campaign.
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And this time around, I didn't succumb to the don't split the vote hysteria.
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I just put my vote back to the party where it usually is because last time around, it
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We still have another liberal government and Poliev couldn't even win his own seat.
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But the insane CPC trolls and the fake independent journalists and influencers paid by the CPC
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So all of a sudden, we're fake independent journalists.
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I have interviewed Maxime Bernier on my show half a dozen times or more.
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I've happily helped promote his cause through my platform.
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And then the second I'm critical of him and others, he calls us fake independent journalists
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and accuses influencers of being paid by the CPC.
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And then he goes on to say that Poliev dropped the ball and that the PPC is a better place
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And yes, just to rub it in a little bit more, the People's Party of Canada got 141,000
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That is fewer people than read my emails every single morning.
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And I'm sorry, Maxime Bernier, you didn't even come close in your own riding.
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The Conservative candidate there got 60% of the vote.
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Like Maxime Bernier should just become a podcaster or become a public intellectual and go back to
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leading the movement through ideas rather than through politics because he didn't even try
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He could have done what Elizabeth May did, just put all of her resources into meeting people,
00:24:54.020
I don't understand why he just doesn't do better there.
00:24:56.280
He needs to have a seat in parliament if he wants to be a politician.
00:24:59.760
Otherwise, I just don't understand what the whole point of it is.
00:25:04.820
Someone should go back and analyze, and I have, analyzed that race from 2019 when he
00:25:09.640
was trying to win re-election in Boas back when he was the incumbent.
00:25:14.140
And the problem was that he only lost by 10% back then.
00:25:18.280
I think that he was almost intentionally trying to lose because he only lost by 10% in 2019.
00:25:24.700
Did no pre-canvassing before the election of his own riding.
00:25:27.860
Maybe was there for four or five days during the actual election in 2019.
00:25:32.780
And he was off in rural Saskatchewan and Alberta and British Columbia,
00:25:37.860
getting votes in places where they were maybe going to get 3% or 5%.
00:25:42.460
And Maxine Bernier then, in a race where, again,
00:25:45.520
if he just flipped 5% of the conservative vote to himself, it would be a tie ballgame.
00:25:49.900
And he, as like a French politician who was very much anti-immigration,
00:25:55.960
could have easily gotten a lot of Bloc Québécois voters to probably swap over
00:26:00.220
to vote for him if he was going to be in an even stronger voice on that issue.
00:26:05.420
I had him on my show in 2021 and never again because he continues to lie about actually making
00:26:14.780
He always goes after establishment parties for being very hierarchical at the same time
00:26:19.020
that his party is effectively a dictatorship where, by the way,
00:26:22.080
he frequently swaps in candidates for other people that he just happens to like better
00:26:30.520
So the man's a complete hypocrite when he has full power to be as principled as possible.
00:26:35.920
The thing, too, is at least Maxine Bernier has proven that the American podcast circuit
00:26:43.200
One, the PPC for some reason couldn't get over two-thirds of the candidates on the ballot.
00:26:48.240
But the man did a podcast tour with every single major conservative influencer in the U.S.
00:26:54.860
And turns out it doesn't matter because most, like, it sounds shocking,
00:27:00.020
but Canadians don't watch a lot of American political news.
00:27:03.680
I know political Canadians will do that because they're interested in the U.S.,
00:27:07.640
but there was no way going on the Patrick Bette David podcast was going to help Pierre Polyev.
00:27:14.220
So thank you to Maxine Bernier for proving that nobody cares.
00:27:19.000
Okay, I want to quickly go through my final losers.
00:27:23.260
The final losers for me in this campaign were the legacy media,
00:27:29.480
They were just so offended and so hurt by the things that happened at the debate,
00:27:36.020
They just came across as so unprofessional, so petty.
00:27:41.300
the legacy media's favorite pollsters and the poll aggregators,
00:27:50.540
So this is taking all the fancy legacy media polls that happened during the campaign on any given day
00:27:54.960
and creating an aggregate list, so, like, kind of an average of them.
00:27:59.080
And here is what they had the day before the election.
00:28:04.520
They had the Liberals at 43%, Conservatives at 39%, NDP at 8%, Block at 6%.
00:28:09.140
Okay, how did the election actually finish out?
00:28:10.860
The Liberals at 43.7%, so, okay, not terrible, 43% to 43.7%.
00:28:16.520
The Conservatives, though, at 41.3%, so they got them off by a full 2%,
00:28:25.420
So, again, like, why would we ever trust legacy media,
00:28:28.760
and why would we ever trust their pollsters again when they just got this one so wrong?
00:28:33.940
And that's aggregating some of the good ones with the bad ones.
00:28:37.940
The particularly bad ones were showing a 5% to 6% lead for the Liberals before Election Day.
00:28:44.840
So some polling is actually pretty good, but the thing is you have to be very selective with who you follow.
00:28:50.680
There isn't just this, oh, so you're denying the polls.
00:28:53.020
If I look, like, at an ECOS poll and it's saying a plus 8 Liberal victory, I'm saying that's not realistic.
00:28:58.280
When, I think it was some of the ones like Liaison Strategies and Research Co. towards the end,
00:29:10.220
And, no, like, but just because Abacus or Main Street did a better job
00:29:18.360
oh, the polling industry is great because if you average it, it's not that bad.
00:29:22.240
But the polling industry outside of a couple of firms still has a really bad problem under polling conservatives.
00:29:29.720
And the thing is that you wonder how many people end up looking at it saying,
00:29:33.220
well, I'm not going to vote because the conservatives are losing by 6 or 7 points
00:29:37.440
based on these five pollsters, and there's only two that are even saying it's somewhat close.
00:29:42.520
Got to show up and vote because if the turnout was higher than 70%,
00:29:45.820
I think that would have actually carried the conservatives at least close to winning,
00:29:49.880
and it only came in, I believe, at, like, 68 and a half.
00:29:55.120
I think that the purpose of the polls in many ways, Wyatt, was to demoralize conservatives,
00:29:59.420
showing the Liberals with a huge lead, signaling to Canadians that the right thing to do was to vote Liberal,
00:30:04.780
was to put your elbows up, fight against Trump,
00:30:06.880
that whole ridiculous narrative that was constructed by the legacy media.
00:30:12.320
I think that there was that sort of shy Tory effect
00:30:14.820
where they just didn't want to tell pollsters the truth.
00:30:18.340
When you take away the handful, the small handful of good ones like Abacus and Main Street,
00:30:22.520
which are at least not as biased as the other ones, the rest of the polls were even worse.
00:30:28.600
Okay, folks may be wondering why we haven't talked about Pierre Polyev and the conservatives.
00:30:35.080
We're going to do another segment where we're going to talk entirely about Pierre Polyev
00:30:38.680
and the conservatives and what we think they did right, what we think they did wrong.
00:30:42.260
So you're going to have to stay tuned for that.
00:30:44.340
All right, folks, thanks so much for tuning in.
00:30:45.980
I'm Candace Malcolm. This is the Candace Malcolm Show.
00:30:48.700
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