The Candice Malcolm Show: The economic toll of COVID-19 pandemic
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Summary
I tested negative for Coronavirus and we're going through a lot of fake news. Canada wildly underestimates the toll or potential toll of the coronavirus, as journalists and politicians continue to mislead us about this disease, plus some good news.
Transcript
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Canada wildly underestimates the toll or potential toll of the coronavirus.
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Journalists and politicians continue to mislead us about this disease,
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plus some good news. I tested negative for coronavirus and we're going to go
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through a lot of fake news. Candice Malcolm here and this is The Candice Malcolm Show.
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Thank you so much for tuning in. As promised, I am doing a live episode here,
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reporting live from quarantine, I guess. I am now in day, I think, 14 or 15 of being self-isolated
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here at home. I think it's probably good practice regardless of what the government tells you,
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regardless of how strict the measures are to impose sort of self-isolation or home quarantine
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measures. At this point, we know that there are lots and lots of outbreaks. There's lots and lots
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of new cases around where I live, for instance, here in Toronto that, you know, even if the government
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wasn't telling us to stay at home, I probably would and I would encourage you to do the same,
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just, you know, for concern for, you know, your own health and safety. But it's kind of interesting to
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watch the, you know, politicians push more and more pressure for us to stay indoors and for us to
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basically destroy our own economy, kill large sectors of the economy without any real solid plan.
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So I'm going to get into all of that. I know Justin Trudeau tried a power grab,
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he tried to sneak it in. They're debating all the emergency measures today, they're going to pass
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that $82 billion measure and Trudeau sort of secretly tried to throw in a bunch of measures to
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give basically his government unlimited power. Thankfully, the Conservative opposition kept him on
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his toes and hopefully they'll remove all that. So that's all happening today. I am doing another
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episode of the True North Update, which is a show where my colleague Andrew Lawton and I go through
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all of the news related to coronavirus. We've been doing it every day for the past week and we're
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going to continue to do it as long as the whole country is on self-lockdown. So I encourage you
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to watch that show. It'll be up later on this afternoon, probably around five o'clock. So I'm going
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to talk about that in that show. I'm not going to talk about this show today. I want to focus in
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on the economy, on what we are actually doing, the measures that we're taking as a country
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to prevent a potentially disastrous public health outbreak similar to what we've seen in China,
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what we've seen in Iran, what we've seen in Italy. We're trying to prevent that but we really don't
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have a plan. We really have no idea what we're doing and what we know that we're doing is destroying
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our economy, destroying the livelihood of millions of Canadians. We're going to see just an absolute
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disastrous outcome in terms of bankruptcies, businesses going out of business, people losing
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their homes, families falling apart, okay. This is going to be worse than anything that we've ever seen
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and at this point we don't even really have any idea on like a timeline. Like how long is this going
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to last? So the Conference Board of Canada came out with a report. They released this report yesterday,
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The Economic Implications of Social Distancing to August. So this is a scenario where Canadians are
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homebound essentially until August, August. So we're not talking a couple weeks here, you know, we're
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talking five months people, five months of staying at home, nothing opened, everyone just kind of working
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from their bedrooms and hoping that we don't spread this disease to the point where our hospital system
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collapses. So what would the projection be if we were to continue these measures until August? Well,
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according to the Conference Board of Canada, I mean, so the report isn't actually released. They said they're
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going to release a full report on the 25th, which is tomorrow. But the sort of over, you know, the basic
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bullet point reading here, which is all we have is bullet points, is that in this scenario, they say,
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the economy sheds 330,000 jobs over the second and third quarter, boosting unemployment to 7.7%.
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I'm sorry, they project that the total job losses for the country are only going to be 330,000. But we're
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already way past that. We know that just in one week, last week, after Justin Trudeau announced his
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emergency measures, that more than 500,000 Canadians applied for EI in just one week. So they applied
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for the employment insurance scheme that Trudeau introduced. So if 500,000 people are employed after
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just one week of social measures, how is it projected that we're only going to lose 330,000 jobs? I think
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that this report, I mean, I haven't read it because it hasn't been fully released yet. But from just, you
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know, what they've released so far, it seems absolute madness to say that we would only lose 300,000 jobs
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in the economy, that the unemployment rate would be 7%. Let's just remind everybody, just last month
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in Alberta, the unemployment rate was 7.2% in February 2020, before any of these social distancing
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measures. So we're really supposed to believe that the unemployment rate is barely going to move
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in this country, when they shut down every restaurant, you know, every bar, every theater,
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every sporting event, you know, they're shutting down the whole country. Anyone who works in the
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hospitality industry, anyone who works in tourism, they've basically shut down international flights.
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So lots and lots of people at airlines have been, have lost their jobs. I don't really understand.
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There was a report from Goldman Sachs down in the United States that projected that the economy was going to
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contract, the GDP was going to contract by 50%, and that they expected a 30% unemployment rate in the
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United States. Canada's economy is so incredibly tied to the US economy, that it's really hard to
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wrap your head around the idea that Canada would only have a 7% unemployment rate, but that the United
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States would have a 30%. I can't imagine a world where the US unemployment rate was 30% and Canada's is
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only seven. So if this is the basis of the reports that of sort of the stimulus spending and the
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government spending that Justin Trudeau is introducing, that the Liberal government is introducing,
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is based on report like this, you know, we are wildly out of touch with the reality of what is going to
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happen when you purposefully shut down the entire economy. And I think that the concern that a lot of
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people are really starting to have is, okay, you know, Justin Trudeau is kind of laying down the law. He's
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saying it's time for everyone to stay home, we really have to take social distancing seriously,
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everybody work from home, nobody go out and about, no one, you know, they've closed parks, they've
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closed all the schools, they've closed basically any public area, you know, they've banned any kind of
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gathering with more than 50 people. And, you know, they're cracking down a lot less than that, like
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people who continue to have their stores open, or their restaurants open, are going to be targeted by
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apparently government officials fining people and arresting people. A woman was arrested in Quebec
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City for testing positive for this coronavirus, and then being found walking around the town. So,
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you know, the whole idea is what, you know, what, what is the future of our country going to look like
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if we continue with these measures? And we're not really being told at this point how long it's going
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to last, and what the economic repercussions are going to be. So, we know, for instance, that when
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people don't work, they can't pay their bills, they can't pay for their homes, people are going to
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potentially move their homes. You know, I know that there's been all kinds of measures taken so that,
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you know, you can't evict people during this period, banks are going to be giving a lot of forgiveness
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in terms of mortgage payments, late mortgage payments. But the idea still is that we know,
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just again, for instance, we know that unemployment rates are linked to suicide. So,
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this is from a CBC report, it was in Alberta. It said that the analysis looked at suicide
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statistics and unemployment data between 2000 and 2017. During that time, Alberta's suicide rate
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was higher than the national average. It was revealed that for every one point increase
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in unemployment, there's a 3% or 2.8% increase in suicide. And we know that unemployment causes about
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45,000 suicides a year worldwide. So, you can't just tell Canadians that they're going to lose
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their jobs potentially indefinitely. Sure, we have boosted EI payments, the government is working.
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Well, if they pass this emergency spending bill today, the government will be working to provide
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about $1,800 a month to Canadians who have been laid off. Maybe that's enough to kind of cover the
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basics, maybe, if you're lucky. But still, a lot of Canadians will just simply not be able to
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make ends meet. They won't be able to afford their lifestyle. They won't be able to afford the
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life that they created pre, you know, this coronavirus outbreak. And I don't think those
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circumstances are being properly considered right now. You know, our number one concern is public
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health, as it should be, you know, protecting loss of life and protecting an infection spread the way
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that we've seen in Italy. But the problem is that there's just so much details missing. There's so much
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missing. And we just don't know, again, we don't, we don't know. So the measures that we're taking,
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are they permanent? Are they permanent? We're just going to all stay at home for the foreseeable future?
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How is that going to, how is that going to be realistic? Are people really just going to be
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complacent and sitting in their homes all summer, all spring and all summer? What are you supposed
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to do with your kids? What are you supposed to do? You know, how are you supposed to stay at home with
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kids? And also work from home, right? Like, it just, it just doesn't really make a lot of sense.
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It doesn't really add up. Now, I have a son, he's one years old. So he's not in any kind of school,
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not in any kind of daycare. But even still in my life, you know, he's an active little guy,
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I like to take him out. I like to take him to classes, he has music class, he used to go swimming,
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go to church group, all that kind of stuff. So he has sort of no social interactions right now. And,
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you know, that's fine for now. But six months from now, I think we're all going to be a little
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stir crazy. And I don't think that you can really just ask Canadians to indefinitely wait
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for something, wait for a cure to be developed, wait for a vaccine to be developed, wait for different
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waves so that our hospital systems don't get overwhelmed. You know, we have to come up with
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some kind of a timeline here. We have to come up with a timeline. Otherwise, well, first of all,
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I don't even know how the government is going to continue to afford these massive payouts,
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when you have 500,000 Canadians plus applying for EI for, you know, a $2,000 check every two months,
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every month, on top of all the business bailouts on top of all the bank bailouts, all the,
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you know, money going increased childcare benefit. I don't quite understand the increased child benefit,
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because so so families with kids are going to get more money, but you can't even use it for daycare,
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you can't use it for preschool or for, you know, to sign kids up for more classes,
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because everything's closed. So sure, you might be getting a little bit of extra cash every month,
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but you can't really even spend it. I mean, that's that's sort of more of a stimulus measure,
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as opposed to an income adjustment measure, which is what the rest of the stuff was.
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So really, I'm seeing sort of a lack of an overall plan for what's happening with this coronavirus.
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Like, are we waiting for a vaccine? Is that what's going to happen? Because we could be waiting a
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year, if that's the case. I think that, you know, in order for Canadians to just say, sure, you know,
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strip away a massive percentage of the economy, I think, I think it's probably closer to the 30%
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figure that Goldman Sachs put it at. 30% of our economy is just going to disappear. And that's
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everyone who works in hospitality, works in food and restaurants, hotels, you know, flights,
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and not to mention a significant cutback in other industries, just, you know, tourism industries,
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people who come from other places to visit Canada in the summer, you know, think anyone who works at
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like an aquarium or a museum or anything like that, car rental agencies, it's just, it's all
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interconnected, it's all going to disappear. And we're supposed to believe that it's only going to
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result in a 7% unemployment rate. I think that that is wildly problematic. And, you know, one of the
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the things that Justin Trudeau said in his press conference is that his government always lets,
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it always lets science and experts guide us, science and experts. Now, I think that's a cop-out
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because, you know, you're a politician, you're the leader of the country, you're the prime minister,
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you have to be there to make tough decisions. That's, that's the job. It's a public policy rule. So
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you can be advised by scientists about, you know, best practices, but even within the scientific
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community, there's no necessarily, there's no agreement. I see reports on both sides. I see
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there was a report from Stanford University of a professor saying, you know, we're kind of
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overreacting. Just look at the, look at the infection rate and the death toll. It's not that
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high at this point. And yet look at the reaction that we've had comparing it to other things. You know,
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other people looking at the data saying, no, no, no, it's about to get a lot worse. We need to be even
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more paranoid. So there's not even sort of a universal opinion among scientists when it comes
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to this disease. Some people think that the numbers are really starting to level off. Even in Italy,
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they're not growing the same way. Other people think, no, you know, we need to take more and more
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measures. So again, they're saying that they're letting the scientists and the expert guys, but I
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think that there's a real problem in doing that because if you, if you just say that you're kind of
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alleviating yourself of any responsibility, right? You're saying, well, it's not me that's making this
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decision. I'm just relying on the experts. Well, who are the experts, right? Who are the experts
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that you're listening to? Which scientists? It's up to you to choose, you know, to comb through the
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data and figure out which one is going to lead you. You know, just two weeks ago, the government
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was sort of laughing at the idea of open borders and saying, no, that's not what we believe. Open
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borders don't help. The virus has no borders, or sorry, open borders, closing our borders won't help.
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This virus has no, knows no borders. This is a global effort and we can't close ourselves off at this
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point. And then, you know, a couple of days later, they did a complete about face and said, okay,
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now it's time to close the border, you know, way after other people were, had closed their border
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way after. So just as an example, Donald Trump closed the United States to first two flights from
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China. He did that way before anyone, anyone else was doing it. And then when he announced the travel
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ban from Europe, this was March 13th, you know, the experts, the so-called experts condemned him.
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So right here, viruses don't carry passports. Why travel bans won't work to stop the spread of the
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coronavirus. So why is it when Trump issued a travel ban, the experts said, no, no, no, that's not going
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to help. But then when Trudeau does it, it's, you know, a necessary problem. It's a necessary solution.
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I, I don't, I don't understand how that is the case. And again, Canada's health minister,
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Minister Hajju, she said, the more countries that have outbreaks, the less relevant borders become.
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A virus knows no borders. And she said that, that, that closing borders can actually have a
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contradicting effect because it will allow people to lie and that people will still be able to get in,
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regardless of whether the borders open or closed. So, you know, were they listening to the experts
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then, or are they listening to the experts now that they agree and they've closed the borders?
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Again, this is, this is the problem that I have is that, you know, at the end of the day, you have
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to choose, you have to make a decision and to just say, well, it's not my decision. I'm just relying on
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the experts. Like who are the experts? Who determines who is an expert? There's so many people
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with differing views at this point. Are you going to listen to economists like the folks over at Goldman
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Sachs saying, you know, we're looking at a major, major collapse in the real estate sector.
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It could lead to a massive stock market crash even further. Think about how many people are
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going to lose their livelihood, lose their pensions, lose their savings, lose their house, lose their
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family. And then you have to weigh that with the health experts that are saying, you know,
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the only way that we beat this coronavirus is that everybody stay inside and nobody work. And it's like,
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okay, well, which one's going to look worse in the end? And you really do have to balance and you have to
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make a decision. So you can't just say, you can't just say, I'm listening to experts because there's
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contradictions within what the experts are calling for. And even in experts in any given field don't
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really agree. And I think when you have the news media kind of picking sides, you know,
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we've seen this throughout that if you are sort of more on the, like, if you, if you like Justin Trudeau,
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if you're a journalist who likes Justin Trudeau, you look at his response to this virus and you say,
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wow, you know, he is just a standup guy doing everything he can, makes me so proud to be a
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Canadian. You know, I saw, I've seen a lot of this on Twitter, the sort of liberal journalists and more,
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more pro-Trudeau journalists talking about how much they admire Justin Trudeau and how, how proud they
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are of his response. Whereas then you have sort of more of the skeptical crowd saying, wait a minute,
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what, you know, what is he doing? Does he have a plan? You know, I'm seeing so many contradictions
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between what he was saying a month ago, what he's saying now. And then you have the same thing
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in the United States, you know, you're trying to read through the news about what's happening with
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the coronavirus. And every news article you read is tainted with this sort of anti-Trump derangement
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syndrome. You know, if I just want to find out what's happening, you know, reading an article,
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a news report, supposed to be a news report in the Atlantic or the Washington Post or the New York Times,
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you kind of have to have a filter and just ignore the like four paragraphs of complete
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Trump derangement just to just to get through it. So, you know, people keep saying now's not the
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time for partisanship. Now's not the time to play politics. Let's just focus at the task at hand.
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But it's really impossible to do that because if people hate Trump, they're not going to be able
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to write neutrally about what he's doing. And if people love Trudeau, likewise, they're not looking
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neutrally at what is happening. Someone on Twitter is saying, please discuss the housing market. Well,
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there was that report in Goldman Sachs. Let me see if I can pull it up because it was pretty scary,
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honestly. And I feel like one of the things I'm sort of concerned about is I read a lot of news
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and I'm a news junkie. I will read a lot of reports and I feel like there's a lot of information coming
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out in the United States. You know, there's a lot of projections, there's a lot of critiques,
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there's really, really thorough reports coming out, analyzing everything to do with this fallout.
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And then I look for the equivalent in Canada and it just doesn't really exist. It's not,
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obviously we're a smaller country and we don't have the same kind of like resources,
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social infrastructure of, you know, think tanks and, you know, news reports and just a pure
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number of people working on public policy. But, you know, to say I showed you the Conference Board
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of Canada report hasn't been released yet. It's really just a one pager with bullet points. It's
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not really comprehensive. Let's move on. I told you that I had some good personal news to share
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and I got tested over the weekend for coronavirus. So I will explain what happened and how I got my test.
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I know a lot of people have been complaining about the fact that the tests are very slow,
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that once you get tested it might take up to a week. I know people in Ottawa were complaining.
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And I know that there has been a huge problem with a shortage of tests. I think I got kind of lucky in
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just the fact that I was able to test because I had been trying to get tested for two weeks. So if you
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normally listen to my show and you're watching right now, you can tell I'm congested. My voice sounds
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different. I have a cold I guess. I was in California. I was in the Bay Area where there's a massive
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outbreak right now. There's been I think a thousand cases in the Bay Area. The Bay Area has been on
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complete lockdown. Like people aren't even supposed to leave their house at all. And I was there two
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weeks ago. I got back two weeks Saturday and from the time I got back I didn't really have any symptoms
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but I was a little concerned just because not only when I was in California, you know, again pretty busy.
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I had friends there. I had my son so I was taking him out to different classes. And then the night before I left
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I went to a large fundraising gala. I went to the Make a Wish Foundation event in San Francisco and there was at
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least 500 people there. And so, you know, once I got home and sort of realizing that there was an outbreak there,
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I got a little paranoid. I also started testing myself and I had a fever. I had a low-grade fever.
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So I decided to call the health officials in Toronto and also Ontario. I had a very hard time
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getting through to them. And once I finally got through on the line after waiting on hold for two
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hours, one night they basically said, look, unless you're in Iran, Italy, or China, you can't get
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tested for this virus. So just stay at home and don't worry about it. A couple days later they changed
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that and said, okay, you know, you can get tested if you're in the United States too because there's now big
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outbreaks in New York City and California. They told me to call 811 in order to get tested.
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You call 811 and the line is busy over and over and over and over again. Everyone in my household
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was trying to call 811 so that I could see if I could get tested. Meanwhile, my fever was getting
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worse and it was kind of sustaining. When I say fever, it was like testing like 101 in that range.
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I got as high as 102. Anyway, Saturday morning we finally got through on the line. We waited on hold
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for over four hours. When we finally spoke to an official, they transferred us to a nurse,
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talked to the nurse about my symptoms. She advised that I do get tested for coronavirus. So I went down
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to Toronto Western Hospital, which is the corner of Bathurst and Dundas, and they had created a whole new
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kind of center. It was just brand new, opened. It had kind of been refurbished to be this testing center.
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It had just opened. It just opened on Saturday. So I was one of the first people to go in and get tested.
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It was really, really well done. My hat goes off to the frontline workers there. I know that they're really
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putting themselves and their own health at risk in order to address this issue. So I went in.
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Everything was very sanitary. You know, they give you a mask and gloves. You go in one by one,
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so you're not even interacting with anyone and they're behind a plexiglass. So I gave them all of
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my, you know, my health card and all my information. They sent me to a private room. I waited there,
00:22:31.520
probably about 20 minutes. The nurse came by. She did the swab, which they swab up your nose and kind of
00:22:38.080
did that. Then a doctor came by, you know, just kind of like a regular doctor visit. I left and
00:22:44.000
they emailed me the results of the test less than 24 hours later. Like by six o'clock the next morning,
00:22:48.960
I had the result. I was negative. So I'm very, very glad and very thankful that I don't have it.
00:22:53.920
And really, I think that the key to addressing this issue and solving it is that everyone needs
00:22:58.960
to get tested. The more people who get tested, the better, because then you have the peace of mind
00:23:02.960
and you know, if you're sick, you have to take quarantine really, really seriously. And if you're not
00:23:07.680
sick, then you can go out and you can continue to go to work and you can continue to have an
00:23:12.240
economy in this country. I think that that is a much better measure than what we're doing now.
00:23:17.920
It's basically what South Korea has been doing, which is testing everybody. Everybody gets tested,
00:23:23.120
focus the resource on making sure as many people get tested as possible. Because I think part of the
00:23:27.520
concern at this point is that we don't know how many people have it. We don't know how many people
00:23:32.240
potentially walking around, not really taking the quarantine measures very seriously,
00:23:36.160
and they have it. And then we know this thing spreads incredibly fast. We know
00:23:40.320
how quickly it can spread and how many people one person can infect. So if we had more knowledge,
00:23:46.400
more people tested, I think we'll be a lot better off. I wish that we were focusing
00:23:50.640
on that as opposed to these crazy to cronian measures to shut down the entire economy.
00:23:55.680
And I know we are going to be talking in depth on my other show, True North update with Andrew
00:24:00.320
Lawton about the extent of the government powers, how Justin Trudeau basically tried a power grab,
00:24:07.760
got caught and kind of had to walk away with his tail between his legs and eliminate some of the
00:24:12.720
things that he proposed. But let me just say this, you know, we're sending out $1,800 in EI,
00:24:21.120
basically welfare to half a million Canadians or more. Okay, that's a lot of money. It's going to add
00:24:30.080
up incredibly quickly. So I think that the whole $82 billion is really just a starting point. That
00:24:35.360
might be like how much money we spend in March. And then we'll have to spend that much money again
00:24:39.600
in April, potentially and May and June. And eventually, we're going to have to pay that all back.
00:24:44.240
Eventually, you know, unless we're going to just default, which would be terrible for the economy,
00:24:49.760
we're going to have to pay that back. And it is going to come from you and me, my friends,
00:24:53.840
from the taxpayer. So I wouldn't be surprised to see massive, massive tax grabs and increases.
00:24:59.920
It's kind of scary to imagine what might happen if you kind of look back to the top tax levels back
00:25:06.400
during the 1940s and 50s, when we were trying to pay back the war efforts. You know, the whole idea
00:25:11.920
of the income tax was supposed to be a temporary measure. It was brought in as a temporary tax to
00:25:16.400
help fund the First World War. It is not temporary at all. It is still here. My colleague over at the
00:25:22.400
Toronto Sun, Anthony Fury, has been looking a lot into this. The idea that a lot of the measures that
00:25:28.480
were introduced and that are being introduced right now are things that the left has kind of always
00:25:33.200
called for. They've always called for, you know, increasing the ability of AI or of EI, sorry,
00:25:39.600
making it available faster, all these other kind of measures. You know, we have to be vigilant. We
00:25:44.880
have to be vigilant. These measures are temporary and that when this crisis is over, the government
00:25:49.280
goes right back to the way it was and that we don't allow them to, you know, continue with some
00:25:55.120
of the surveillance measures or some of the power measures or some of the taxation measures and
00:25:59.200
spending measures that could be really, really potentially bad for our society. So I'm going to
00:26:04.400
leave it at that. Like I said, my colleague and I, Andrew Lawton, will be coming back to you a
00:26:09.280
little later on this afternoon. We'll have a full update on all of the announcements today,
00:26:13.440
all of the latest with coronavirus and the response, and we'll talk a lot in depth about the
00:26:18.880
emergency spending and the House of Commons today and what happens in Ottawa. So thanks so much
00:26:24.960
guys for tuning in. I'm Candace Malcolm and this is The Candace Malcolm Show.