Today, Canada and Mexico are facing 25% tariffs from the United States on their goods, including dairy, beef, and other products. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is still waiting to speak to the Canadian people about the situation. We talk to Hamish Marshall, a pollster, about what's going on.
00:06:39.080We want to work with you as a friend and ally.
00:06:43.700And we don't want to see you hurt either.
00:06:47.260And your government has chosen to do this to you.
00:06:54.400As of this morning, markets are down, and inflation is set to rise dramatically all across your country.
00:07:02.300Your government has chosen to put American jobs at risk, that the thousands of workplaces that
00:07:09.440succeed because of materials from Canada, or because of consumers in Canada, or both.
00:07:18.620They've chosen to raise costs for American consumers on everyday essential items like groceries and gas,
00:07:25.760on major purchases like cars and homes, and everything in between.
00:07:31.760They've chosen to harm American national security, impeding access to the abundant critical minerals,
00:07:38.900energy, building materials, and fertilizers that we have and that the United States needs to grow and prosper.
00:07:48.900They've chosen to launch a trade war that will, first and foremost, harm American families.
00:07:56.040They've chosen to sabotage their own agenda that was supposed to usher in a new golden age for the United States.
00:08:04.040And they've chosen to undermine the incredible work we've done together to tackle the scourge that is fentanyl,
00:08:17.180a drug that must be wiped from the face of the earth.
00:08:20.180So on that point, let me be crystal clear, there is absolutely no justification or need whatsoever for these tariffs today.
00:08:35.320Now the legal pretext your government is using to bring in these tariffs is that Canada is apparently unwilling to help in the fight against illegal fentanyl.
00:08:54.980Our border is already safe and secure.
00:08:59.180Far less than 1% of fentanyl flows and less than 1% of illegal crossings into the United States comes from Canada.
00:09:07.600But we acted because we know we can always do better.
00:09:13.900We responded to concerns, including from the president, by implementing an ambitious $1.3 billion border plan.
00:09:22.340A border plan that includes generational investments in new AI and emerging tools to stop the flow of fentanyl in its tracks.
00:09:31.460Stronger coordination and information sharing with American agencies, along with the deployment of drones, helicopters and additional personnel to keep our borders secure.
00:09:44.700Now, a month ago, as part of an agreement with the United States that paused the tariffs, we made further commitments.
00:09:52.620We appointed Kevin Brousseau as our fentanyl czar, a man who dedicated his multi-decade career in law enforcement to combating organized crime networks and drug trafficking.
00:10:04.860We designated seven drug cartels, sick, evil groups who cynically profit off the pain and suffering of people on both sides of the border as the terrorist organizations that they are.
00:10:18.420And just yesterday, we launched a new joint operations partnership supported by a $200 million investment between Canada's security and law enforcement agencies.
00:10:32.700A partnership that will enhance the coordination of information and intelligence in order to thwart criminal gangs involved in the illegal fentanyl trade.
00:10:42.620And critically, our actions are working.
00:10:49.620As the U.S. states, as the U.S. Customs and Border Protection just acknowledged, there was a 97 percent drop in fentanyl seizures from January compared to December to a near zero low of less than half an ounce seized in January.
00:11:11.620Even with all the further enforcements and actions we've taken at the borders.
00:13:40.620We will take measures to prevent predatory behaviour that threatens Canadian companies because of the impacts of this trade war, leaving them open to takeovers.
00:13:51.620We will relentlessly fight to protect our economy.
00:13:56.620We will stand up for Canadians every single second of every single day because this country is worth fighting for.
00:14:13.620So, I mean, Justin Trudeau kind of coming out and giving the speech of his life, basically, and really, like, spelling it out.
00:14:20.620First of all, he takes kind of an unnecessary jab at the beginning, talking about Putin.
00:14:24.620I think he's trying to, like, insert himself into the dispute that happened last week, calling him an atrocious murderer.
00:14:29.620His tone was kind of condescending at the beginning, Hamish, especially when he was talking to Americans because he was telling Americans that they were going to feel the pain.
00:14:36.620And all I was thinking was, no, man, it's the Canadians that are going to feel the pain.
00:14:40.620Like, yes, there will be pockets of Americans that will feel this, but their economy is just so much larger than ours.
00:14:46.620Ours is such a fraction of it, so much more dependent upon their economy for trade than vice versa.
00:14:51.620So the message that he was supposedly giving to Americans, I felt like it really should have been aimed at Canadians.
00:14:56.620That moment where he was talking to President Trump one-on-one, I thought that was actually quite effective, even though I don't like...
00:15:02.620I cringe when I hear politicians using first names to one another.
00:15:05.620I just think it's really inappropriate.
00:15:07.620But, you know, we were talking about that with President Zelensky in the Oval Office, and he kept referring to the vice president as JD, which I just...
00:15:15.620But basically just saying there's no justification or need whatsoever for these tariffs, spelling out what the Canadians had done to improve the border, to crack down on fentanyl.
00:15:24.620I think that those are all really reasonable, good points, Hamish.
00:15:27.620But to me, there was like, he was missing the forest for the tree.
00:15:30.620Like, some of the major takeaways here, it's like, Justin Trudeau does not have a mandate at this moment.
00:15:37.620President Trump does not like Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
00:15:40.620Part of the reason that we're in here, you have to believe, is that these two individuals just don't see eye to eye.
00:16:29.620Look, I think a lot of this is a result of Trudeau's weakness and Trudeau's disastrous time as prime minister, right?
00:16:35.620Canada, the reason Trump is coming after Canada in a large sense, and I agree that it's not about specific security or national defense issues or even drug issues that are sort of the fig leaves for this, is that he sees Canada as an easy source of places to get jobs.
00:16:54.620He wants one of his core promises and what he wants to deliver is more manufacturing jobs, specifically manufacturing jobs in the United States.
00:17:02.620Those are good, high paying jobs that will go to places and to the sort of people who are Trump supporters.
00:17:09.620That is something he sees he wants to deliver for his people.
00:17:12.620And part of that is to bring jobs back from China, but that takes time.
00:17:17.620The easier thing to do is to create instability in the relationship with Canada and, frankly, with Mexico, so that if you're somebody who relies on shipping auto parts across the border,
00:17:27.620you're even if these tariffs go away in two, three, six months, six weeks, I don't know to say I don't want to go through this again.
00:17:35.620I'm just going to move my auto plant part, my auto parts plant from from, you know, Windsor, Ontario.
00:17:40.620We're going to move it down to Kentucky or somewhere because I just don't want to have to have that sort of disruption.
00:18:01.620He wants the disruption so that people say, I don't want to deal with this garbage anymore and just move my plants or our factories south of the border.
00:18:11.620And, you know, we're in a position as Canadians in our Canadian economy that we have less ability to stand up to that today than we did 10 years ago because of persistent decisions Trudeau has made.
00:18:22.620You're right. Trudeau is, you know, being a weak leader and and that Trump sees him as a weak leader.
00:18:27.620And since really since Freeland resigned and then Trudeau has resigned, the weakness has only gotten more.
00:18:35.620And that's why Trump's pushing hard today, because, you know, if the liberal I honestly believe if the liberal leadership had been set that we had a prime minister, you know, two days ago, as opposed to, you know, in five or six days.
00:18:49.620And we had a new leader. The tariffs would have come in a week ago.
00:18:52.620He's coming in when Canada is that he's hitting us when Canada is at its weakest and we're the weakest right now with Justin Trudeau.
00:18:58.620And it seems like our response, Hamish, is not going to help like like the whole idea here that we're throwing retaliatory tariffs on the U.S.
00:19:06.620It's a tax on Canadians. A retaliatory tariff is a tax on Canadians.
00:19:10.680So the hurt the Canadians are going to feel, it's going to be a little bit from what Trump is doing, but it's a lot more what our own leaders are doing.
00:19:17.720So here is Doug Ford appearing on American News last night and NBC News with Aaron Gilchrist, basically saying that they're going to shut down the electricity going to the United States so that the Americans will feel the pain like they've never felt before.
00:19:31.720If he wants to destroy our economy and our families, I will shut down the electricity going down to the U.S.
00:19:40.240And I'm telling you, we will do it. It's unfortunate.
00:19:43.680I would rather ship you more electricity. We're the number one trading customer to 28 states and a lot of them are red states.
00:19:52.280They're going to feel the pain like they've never felt before.
00:19:57.240So I'm not sure if Canada stops selling electricity to the Americans, I'm sure the Americans will find another way to get it.
00:20:03.360I mean, we might feel some pain there, but to me, there's going to be a longer term pain felt by Canadians because who else are we going to sell to?
00:20:09.320It's not like you have an option to go to another market with something like that.
00:20:12.260What do you think? Well, I think I think actually the non-tariff actions like blocking electricity.
00:20:19.100And I think the other thing that most interesting word the prime minister said in the entire speech was fertilizer.
00:20:23.520He called out the Americans need our fertilizer. We have enormous potash reserves that are it's key to making fertilizer.
00:20:30.720Much of the modern world depends on, frankly, on fertilizer and our ability to generate the Americans ability to generate huge amounts of food.
00:20:38.520If he says we're going to stop potash exports to the United States, that gets very, very interesting because those are things that, yes, they can buy potash from other places, but it's much, much more expensive.
00:20:50.680And it takes time for those to come in. And that's even more true with electricity.
00:20:54.340The potash is shipping it around in containers and you buy it from Australia or somewhere else.
00:20:58.880And it takes a while to, you know, shipping containers, shipping containers, electricity.
00:21:03.660You've got the wires. You can't just throw some electricity in a boat and move it somewhere else.
00:21:08.040So will the Americans be able to make up the electricity by firing up some old plants and things?
00:21:14.940It will test a lot of money, have a very immediate impact on the price of a lot of things in the United States.
00:21:21.600Most notably, that have an impact on those manufacturing plants because they are enormous consumers of electricity.
00:21:27.660And frankly, while Canada, you know, a lot of the electricity that we sell to the United States, particularly from Quebec, but some of them from Ontario, is generated by hydropower.
00:21:38.160So it's very easy to just to let the water run over the dam and decide not to generate that electricity.
00:21:43.900So turning that off is actually something we can do without a lot of impact for us.
00:21:47.900So I think that is ultimately where it's going to be the most effective, is looking at the non-tariff things that they can only get to Canada, from Canada, because our economies are so integrated, our infrastructure is so integrated, is much more effective than, to your point, some tariffs that are hurt Americans, but only a little bit.
00:22:07.160Well, it's interesting. So I want to play this clip.
00:22:08.700This is Dr. Ian Lee, who is a professor, I believe at Carleton, in business, and he was on the CBC explaining what tariffs are and basically saying that when you look at the studies, when you look at the data, there is no redeeming argument whatsoever for a retaliatory tariff.
00:22:24.480It doesn't do what we want it to do. It's not going to impact the Americans.
00:22:28.360So let's get this, let's play this clip and then I'll get your response to it, Hamish.
00:22:36.420I want to put forward the other point of view.
00:22:39.780Governor Macklem gave an unbelievably superb speech February 21st to Oakville Chamber of Commerce, and he outlined very empirically and factually the extraordinary destructive impact of tariffs on the economy, on investment, on inflation, on the price of goods.
00:22:59.740And I went through that speech, the written document, very, very carefully multiple times.
00:23:05.260I couldn't find any redeeming arguments to support retaliatory tariffs.
00:23:10.680They're going to be very destructive for us.
00:23:13.800And so putting tariffs on top of tariffs, and remember the Canadian tariffs will be on Canadians.
00:23:20.560So when the government says $100 billion or $200 billion, that's a tax on Canadians.
00:23:25.580And then the argument is, is that somehow going to cause Mr. Trump to change his mind?
00:23:32.040And, you know, it's such a huge economy.
00:24:21.240We want these retaliatory tariffs because really what they are is a tax on Canadians.
00:24:23.940So I'm going to play that clip and then I'll go back to you, Hamish.
00:24:27.700Trudeau said that they would issue retaliatory tariffs against the Americans, 25%.
00:24:32.240You came out in a basic agreement with that, saying that you would also support.
00:24:35.680So my question is, a tariff that Canada imposes is really just a 25% tax on the goods that we import.
00:24:43.840So it's a 25% tax on what Canadians pay for.
00:24:46.960So why is a Conservative leader agreeing with basically a 25% liberal tax increase?
00:24:54.240Well, I don't agree with any liberal tax increase of any kind ever.
00:24:58.380But I do believe that if a foreign government attacks Canadian industry, that we have to retaliate.
00:25:03.180That is the only tool we have to deter.
00:25:06.180These tariff threats from the United States are utterly unjustified.
00:25:09.080There is no justification for what President Trump is threatening on Canada.
00:25:14.760So that was back on February 13th, but the issue still remains pertinent.
00:25:18.780So I hear your point that the other measures that are non-tariff measures might be more effective than the tariffs themselves.
00:25:24.900I'm not a fan of a 25% tax on Canadians.
00:25:27.360And I don't think it's going to work, right?
00:25:28.760Like, if we were at the point where, you know, we turn on this tax and it actually has a devastating impact on the American economy and Trump wakes up tomorrow morning and says, this is a big mistake, I'm going to undo them.
00:25:40.260So at this point, I just don't understand why Canada is in such a weak position.
00:25:44.240Why are we making ourselves weaker with this tax?
00:25:46.300Well, I mean, I agree with Mr. Polyev.
00:25:48.500I think you have to stand up for yourselves.
00:25:49.980I think you have to, there will be an impact.
00:25:52.080And as I think one of the commenters made in a lot of red states, which I think is good, which I think will hopefully help when members of Congress begin to start hearing complaints from their constituents that will filter up to the president, hopefully.
00:26:06.980But I also think the other thing Mr. Polyev has proposed is a really good idea of saying, if we're going to have these tariffs, let's make sure we take any revenue collected from them and put them into immediate tax cuts for Canadians.
00:26:21.060So that if we are going to all have to pay more for certain things that are imported, we'll have a little more money in our pocket.
00:26:27.100And I appreciate that that will allow people to get ahead to some extent in a very difficult situation.
00:26:38.800But I think we do have to stand up for ourselves because the most important thing, I think, from the beginning is that, as I said at the very beginning of this, Trump smells weakness.
00:26:47.860And I think if we don't put anything back, he'll just see it as more weakness and he'll say, great, 25 percent, let's make it 35.
00:26:53.740So I think we have to stand up for ourselves and say that we are going to have to inflict some pain going the other way as well, while recognizing it's not, we can do far less damage to the American economy than they can to us.
00:27:05.800Well, here is Immigration Minister Mark Miller.
00:27:08.680He was on CBC and he said that it's OK because Canada, Canadians, he says, have a higher pain threshold, apparently, than Americans.
00:27:17.860And it will continue to be important to diversify our economies, but we can't replace an economy that is responsible for 80 percent of our trade overnight and it's going to hurt.
00:27:28.840My message is to Canadians is that we have a higher pain threshold than our partners to the south of us.
00:27:37.400We will have to bring the fight and it will hurt Americans as well.
00:27:40.560And not to be outdone, NDP leader Jagmeet Singh was out there last night saying that it's time for Trudeau to basically kick Donald Trump out of the G7 and uninvite him from the upcoming G7 meeting in Alberta.
00:27:59.100Given that we are the host of the G7 summit and given that Donald Trump has threatened our very sovereignty, threatened our economic security, we should not invite Donald Trump to the G7.
00:28:14.740As a host, we should work with other countries to develop a strategy on how we can resist the very dangerous ideas that Donald Trump is putting forward.
00:28:23.460And that should be the focus of the summit.
00:28:25.060I mean, forget about Singh's comments there because they're silly, but it will be interesting.
00:28:30.280I mean, we have this meeting coming up.
00:28:31.980Trump will be there and we will have a new prime minister.
00:28:34.900Maybe we'll have two new prime ministers by then, but it won't be Justin Trudeau.
00:28:38.760And I think that that will be a meeting to watch.
00:28:41.020What's your takeaway from some of these reactions we're seeing?
00:28:43.900I mean, I think Mark Miller's trying to sort of play to some sort of bizarre version of K-8 nationalism.
00:28:49.400He couldn't even get through the line about a higher pain threshold without sort of smirking and laughing himself.
00:28:55.060He knew he was ridiculous and when he was saying it, it was just absurd.
00:28:59.200And it really shows just how the liberals are, you know, this is serious business and they can't quite manage to deal with these serious topics.
00:29:07.320And it's one of the reasons why we're in this mess.
00:29:09.840You know, obviously Singh is just being silly and further proving how absolutely inadequate he is for anything remotely approaching the leaders of power.
00:29:21.960If there's anything he sees himself as, it's a dealmaker.
00:29:25.200Frankly, an in-person meeting at a summit in Canada, that's an opportunity for something.
00:29:30.180I think Trump sees this, you know, the meeting is in three or four months, I believe.
00:29:35.320And that is about enough time for Trump to make a point with tariffs and to have a new prime minister to make a deal with.
00:29:42.940I think Trump might see it as an opportunity to make a deal and it could be an opportunity to do so.
00:29:47.960And I think Canadians would be foolish to turn our back on that opportunity to come up with some sort of deal that will last through the rest of the Trump presidency.
00:29:56.360Well, because I have you, I just have to take it over and talk about the polling because we have just seen a spectacular change in fortunes, right?
00:30:05.940Like I came back and started doing my show in early January, coming back from maternity leave.
00:30:12.060And at that point, the conservatives looked like they were going to walk away with the largest majority in the generation.
00:30:17.420And it seemed just like a matter of time, like Justin Trudeau needs to step down when the election comes, we will see this change.
00:30:23.520And then you look at what has happened basically since that time, since January, and just the spectacular change.
00:30:31.020I think we have that graph that everyone has been pointing at.
00:30:33.860So conservative lead, you know, just in the last two, two, three months there has basically all but disappeared.
00:30:40.600We've had you on the show a few times, Hamish, to sort of help us understand whether, you know, the polls were real,
00:30:46.000whether it was something that the media was manufacturing or somehow were they overreading a trend.
00:30:52.200It still, it still confuses me because the latest Ipsos poll, which came out on February 23rd,
00:30:57.340shows that the liberals are actually beating the conservatives by two points.
00:31:01.100And that would be the first time that liberals have been ahead in a poll since 2021.
00:31:06.300Still very close, but it shows liberals clearly ahead.
00:31:09.220But then after that, Abacus data came out and Abacus has repeatedly found that the conservatives are ahead.
00:31:16.000David Coletto is a very reputable pollster and by no means a conservative, very fair and balanced.
00:31:23.640And he's gone out into the field several times to try to see if the liberal bounce is real.
00:31:28.420He can't, he doesn't seem to be able to find it.
00:31:30.440So his latest poll shows conservatives up at 41, liberals down at 29.
00:31:36.120Maybe first of all, talk about the discrepancy there.
00:31:39.220And which poll do you think is more accurate?
00:33:49.940We'll see how it lasts once we get into an election campaign and people start evaluating,
00:33:54.120you know, Carney or whoever the liberal leader is on their own merits.
00:33:57.460And I think we'll begin to see some convergence in the polls.
00:34:02.240Well, it is interesting when you look at some of the crosstabs here.
00:34:05.180So Abacus poll asks Canadians, what is the top issue that you are looking at in the election?
00:34:11.640And it shows, if we can show that on the screen there, 61% of Canadians still say that the rising cost of living is the top concern.
00:34:19.220But what has popped all the way up to second place there is Donald Trump and his administration.
00:34:25.200And my guess is that number would be even higher after the news that we're getting today.
00:34:29.160The two issues are sort of becoming linked because people will feel a greater economic pain thanks to these tariffs.
00:34:36.180And then the next one that I want to show is, who do you believe is the party best able to handle these issues?
00:34:42.500And so you can see that when it comes to the cost of living, 37% trust the conservatives, only 21% say liberals.
00:34:49.640But then when it comes to Trump, it's 29% conservatives and 39% liberals.
00:34:54.800There's a couple of other issues that favor conservatives, including immigration and crime, which are also big issues.
00:35:00.120But I think that the two big ones there are sort of split.
00:35:04.080So I want to ask you a bit of a strategy question, Hamish,
00:35:07.280because some people on the political right are upset with Pierre Polyev saying that he shouldn't be taking the same position when it comes to tariffs,
00:35:15.360that maybe he should try to be seen as more reconciliatory towards Trump and trying to strike a deal.
00:35:20.920Now, that probably would seem like political suicide to people who are more liberal voters.
00:35:25.620And Trump, obviously, is not a beloved character in Canada.
00:35:28.980I think most people, the majority of Canadians, overwhelming majority, have a negative opinion on him.
00:35:33.540So do you think that part of the issue here is that Polyev doesn't have the right strategy?
00:35:39.960No, I think Polyev's got the right strategy.
00:35:46.620You know, obviously, things changed since Trudeau stepped down and these Trump tariffs have dominated the landscape.
00:35:54.320And I think he's got the right strategy rolling ahead by explaining how he would do things differently.
00:36:00.280And the only great example, really, is taking that any money collected from tariffs and using it to cut taxes to make life more affordable.
00:36:07.580It's interesting. Liberals are just talking about pain.
00:36:09.580They're not talking about doing anything on the other side to make life in any way more affordable for Canadians,
00:36:13.840which has been what they frankly have done for the last three or four years as we've gone through this inflationary period.
00:36:19.860So I think Mr. Polyev was on the right approach.
00:36:23.520I think sucking up to Donald Trump at this point would be absolute political suicide in this country.
00:36:28.400I think that I know lots of people who are Trump supporters, who are many of whom are backing away from that now.
00:36:35.420He's showing he is absolutely no fan of Canada and no friend to our country, doesn't value the relationship we have with the United States at any level.
00:36:43.560And that while some people might still like some of the things that Mr. Trump's doing in the United States,
00:36:51.160that there is not a market for that political position in Canada.
00:36:55.260And I think a conciliary tone, frankly, Mr. Trump would simply see that as more weakness
00:37:00.960and more ability to push even further and to try to get even more of a change deal,
00:37:10.440whatever that looks like, that's even better for him.
00:37:13.980So I think the approach is the right one.
00:37:17.200Look, the Liberals have a long history of standing up to Americans.
00:37:21.500It's been part of their brand identity for a very, very long time.
00:37:25.120So I'm not surprised they're ahead as a party on that issue.
00:37:28.900I think it's striking that every other issue except for climate change and Trump,
00:37:33.800the Conservatives, lead the Liberals, even on things like health care and housing.
00:37:37.720And it's it's been it's pretty striking.
00:37:41.740But you're right. It's it's certainly a challenge.
00:37:45.620And but I think Mr. Poliev's on the right track.
00:37:49.340He's got further to go, but he's on the right track and we'll see how things play out in time.
00:37:55.360Well, so this must have been a gift to Poliev then.
00:37:59.400Trump was speaking in an interview with Spectator magazine, a U.S. publication,
00:39:35.680I think I think that distinction is important.
00:39:39.040And I think that there's a certain part of the left who sort of will always see anybody, you know, to the right of Justin Trudeau as sort of a cartoon villain that all gets together in some sort of global right wing conspiracy.
00:39:51.860But I think the fact that we did that, you know, we can draw the line so close, so clear, so separately between Poliev and Trump, I think will be positive for Mr. Poliev.
00:40:04.280You know, he's a fierce believer and fighter for Canada.
00:40:07.380And I think that will come out, continue to come out.
00:40:10.800The speech he gave back in the middle of February was fantastic, explaining, you know, Canada's history and the role that we've played in North America and his vision going forward.
00:40:22.320I think it was phenomenal. And, you know, I think we'll see a lot more of that.
00:40:25.760And I think that will resonate with Canadians.
00:40:27.540Okay, I want to get your opinion on this one, because I think Mark Carney is a front runner.
00:40:31.680I think that there are some issues with him.
00:40:33.540But I believe that the liberals will, I mean, he's sort of the person that's that's been selected to come in and save the Liberal Party from destruction.
00:40:41.680But Chrystia Freeland is also out there making her case.
00:40:44.800She was on real time with Bill Maher over the weekend.
00:40:48.180And it was interesting to see Hamish, because, first of all, she throws Justin Trudeau under the bus.
00:40:53.260Prime Minister Trudeau talks about how virtue signaling and identity politics has been overdone and talks about why she left Trudeau's cabinet.
00:42:33.940And I think if you're trying to make someone sound like they're going to, you know, be pro-American, associating them with the word maple is probably kind of a poor branding choice.
00:42:44.400Look, I mean, it just further shows that Chrystia Freeland's, you know, the worst communicator in the Western world.
00:42:49.740And it's one of the reasons why she's not going to be the liberal leader in a few days.
00:43:58.160The two things I'm looking out for, number one, is overall how many people actually vote engaged in this process.
00:44:03.120There's a lot of media hype about Carney.
00:44:04.780There's a lot of focus in the polls about Carney, but when you look at the pictures of his events, the crowds aren't that big.
00:44:13.140His engagement on social media is respectable, but not incredible.
00:44:18.040So, the number of people who actually came out and voted is going to be extremely important.
00:44:22.220You know, it's about 400,000 people signed up, but then they have to register and then vote.
00:44:28.480So, we'll see what that number is, and I think it's going to be quite small when you compare it to the over 600,000 who voted in the Conservative leadership race a couple of years ago, or two and a half years ago.
00:44:39.780So, overall, it's going to be interesting.
00:44:41.160And then I think we're going to look for other areas, particularly in Quebec.
00:44:44.100I mean, Mark Carney's French is fairly appalling for someone trying to be prime minister, especially with a large electoral party, a large electoral base in Quebec.
00:44:53.580And I'm very interested to see if any of the others, none of whom are, frankly, you know, particularly strong Quebec sympathetic politicians, but if they're able to do anything there because of that.
00:45:06.140So, that will be very interesting to see if that's what I'm looking out for.
00:45:09.540Well, it is just interesting that Mark Carney, I mean, he's not a politician.
00:45:16.780So, if he becomes party leader and prime minister, he'll be a prime minister without being a member of parliament, without having a seat.
00:45:23.060I don't know that they're going to quickly go to a by-election or just trigger an election.
00:45:27.480I do want to make a point, though, Hamish, that he'll mention that, oh, I'm not a politician, and kind of use that as a plus, which is something that Donald Trump also says.
00:45:35.600But for Donald Trump, the thing about him not being a politician was that he was a little rough around the edges, not politically correct.
00:45:41.800He would make statements that, to the political ear, sounded outrageous, but to the American, maybe like the middle-of-the-road American, they actually liked what he was saying.
00:45:49.580And he also had this business background, so he was going to take business mindset and apply it to politics.
00:45:55.420I'm not saying that it's going well, but that was his shtick.
00:45:58.180Like, with Carney, it's like, what is his career?
00:46:00.840Well, he's been an unelected bureaucrat who sort of seems like he tries to take a lot of credit for things that he may or may not have really been involved in.
00:46:10.080And, you know, his career is that he's a bureaucrat.
00:46:13.760So, you know, I don't think that that is really, has the same kind of, like, interest for the people to say, like, okay, well, he's not a politician, we'll give him a pass.
00:46:21.900Because he's been operating in this political world for so long.
00:46:25.720I see that as a major weakness for Carney.
00:46:28.040But I did want to ask you, you can comment on that, but I also want to ask you, when do you think that the general election will get triggered?
00:46:33.820Because we've heard rumors that it might happen immediately, like within 24 or 48 hours.
00:46:38.180Other people say, no, he's going to want to be prime minister for a month or two and get the hang of it, maybe even wait until the G7 conference.
00:46:45.140So comment on Carney and then tell us when you think the election is going to happen.
00:46:48.580Yeah, I think politicians say I'm not a politician is something that nobody believes.
00:46:53.720The way Trump was able to communicate that is exactly as you said, but he didn't act like a politician.
00:46:57.800He didn't sound like any politician anybody had ever heard in 2015 and 2016, right?
00:47:02.760And that's how he didn't have to say I'm not a politician because he didn't act like one.
00:47:06.480You know, Mark Carney acts exactly like sort of an identikit, mass produced politician.
00:47:14.400And he keeps lying about being involved in political things, right?
00:47:18.160He claims he helped Paul Martin balance the budget, which he didn't.
00:47:22.620But also, if you're trying to say you're not part of the system, claiming you are is weird.
00:47:27.680And then claims that he was key to saving Canada during the global financial crisis when it was Jim Flaherty making the tough calls.
00:47:38.900And of course, you know, Jim's not here to defend him at all.
00:47:44.220But again, if he's trying to be a politician, he shouldn't be associating himself with all these political type things.
00:47:49.960He's completely, I think, doing completely backwards there.
00:47:52.360But I will say that, you know, the rumor mill in Ottawa, for what it's worth, is that, you know, Carney will get sworn in as prime minister a few days after he wins the liberal leadership.
00:48:19.540So maybe he could jump in as a liberal candidate right now there.
00:48:23.860But I will say that the last time someone tried this was John Turner, who was not a member of parliament, became prime minister, and called an election 10 days later and took his party to the worst defeat in Canadian history.
00:48:38.380So, you know, hopefully that's what happens again.