WARNING! RECESSION is coming. Governor of the Bank of Canada gives DIRE forecast + CBC grief counselling over mean tweets
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Summary
A warning from the Bank of Canada's governor, Tiff Macklin, about the impact of the trade war on the Canadian economy and its implications for the rest of the world's largest economy. We're joined by Mark Nixon, a content creator focused on real estate, economics, and politics in Canada, and Kevin McLeod, who runs a popular account, Government Is Corrupt.
Transcript
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I'm Candice Malcolm, and this is The Candice Malcolm Show.
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It's our favorite show of the week where we just get to basically make fun of the legacy
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media for the terrible, stupid stories that they play.
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We kind of do that every day on the show, though.
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But then something really incredible happened, which is that the governor of the Bank of
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Canada, Tiff Macklin, came out yesterday and gave a pretty dire warning.
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And I'm pleased to be joined today by some of my favorite online influencers.
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I'm talking about Mark Nixon, who's a content creator focused on real estate, economics,
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And Kevin, who runs a popular X account, Government is Corrupt.
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So, Tiff Macklin, this is an interesting thing, right?
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Everything about the Canadian economy, it's always hinging on the trade war and the U.S.
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And we sort of use it as the reason for all of our problems.
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But those of us who have been paying attention to politics and economics for the past decade
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know that our problems are much, much deeper and that the trade war is sort of just like
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So at this press conference in Ottawa on Thursday, like I said, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff
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Macklin, he warned that the long-lasting trade war is the greatest threat to the Canadian
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economy and that it could push us into a recession.
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So I'm going to play this quick clip and then I want to read some commentary on it and then
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So first, let's play this clip of Tiff Macklin.
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A long-lasting trade war poses the greatest threat to the Canadian economy.
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It also increases risks to financial stability.
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In the near term, the unpredictability of U.S. trade policy could cause further market volatility
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In an extreme case, market volatility could turn into market dysfunction.
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In the medium term, a prolonged global trade war would have severe economic consequences.
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Now, I think this is just sort of convenient that they can point to the trade war, point
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to President Trump and say he's going to be the cause of all of our problems and this
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I want to read what Dan Knight had to say about this.
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Dan Wright runs the opposition and he's just a fantastic writer and I think he's spot on
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So I'm going to read this bit by bit here and I'll get you guys to respond.
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He says, Ottawa, Tiff Macklin stood at the podium in Ottawa today, did what central bankers
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He wrapped deep, systemic panic in the calmest language possible.
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But if you listen closely beyond the jargon, what you heard was unmistakable.
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The Bank of Canada wants you to believe that everything is under control, that our banks are
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resilient, our households are stress tested, and our financial system is sound.
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Canada is dangerously exposed and the people in charge have no real plan for what happens
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He goes on, he says that the Trudeau era economic doctrine enabled by the NDP and now carried
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on by Mark Carney told Canadians we could borrow endlessly, tax productivity and offshore our
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economic foundations in exchange for climate virtue, signaling and gender budgets.
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The bank admitted that credit card and auto loan delinquencies are rising fast, especially
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among Canadians who didn't even qualify for a mortgage.
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That's the underclass the Trudeau economy created.
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And then he goes on to talk about the sort of more middle class people.
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He says even mortgage holders, those who were stress tested at an artificially inflated
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We know this, that anyone who's coming up, anyone who had a five-year mortgage that's coming
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up for renewal in the next few years is going to face huge increased rates, right?
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So he says about 60% of all outstanding Canadian mortgages, which equates to millions of households,
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Most of those were taken out at rock bottom pandemic rates.
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Even with interest rates easing, the majority will still face higher payments, squeezing
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budgets already hit by inflation, taxes, and stagnant real wages.
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I think this applies to almost every Canadian, right?
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They're now the biggest player in the Canadian government debt.
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Hedge funds, particularly foreign-based ones, have rapidly overtaken traditional bank-owned
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dealers in the government of Canada bond market.
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According to the Bank of Canada, hedge funds now purchase nearly 50% of auction volume in
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some bond maturities that account for 30% in the secondary trading market.
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And so I was talking about this with you, Kevin, before we went on air, this idea that
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most Canadians don't really understand bond markets, don't really understand hedge funds.
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He says, what happens is, so what would happen if these bonds just decided that they didn't
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And they just decide, like, OK, we don't really trust the future of Canada anymore.
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Well, Dan said this would trigger a funding crisis, liquidity freeze.
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And if that hits, the Bank of Canada knows exactly what it would have to do, just what
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it did during the COVID in the post-years, which was print money, intervene, and bail the
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Macklin saying that the bank might need to step in if the market appears dysfunctional.
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This is what happens when you build your financial system on cheap debt, speculative capital,
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This is what happens when you have your hand in the economy run by unelected bureaucrats,
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People who caused it want you to just stay calm, keep spending, and be quiet.
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I think that's a very, like, perfectly stated overview of the financial system in Canada.
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What was your take from Tiff Macklin's comments yesterday?
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What do you think about the Canadian economy, which to me, it seems like heading towards
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Some say the bubbles in an Aero Truffle piece can take 34 seconds to melt in your mouth.
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Sometimes the very amount you're stuck at the same red light.
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So, you know, I've been tracking this for several years now.
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Just two years ago, I mean, I was looking at how low the rates were.
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And when I saw the rates rise at the fastest pace in Canadian history and reach that 5%
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So the way it works is it takes 18 to 24 months for interest rate hikes or decreases to work
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This is actually on the Bank of Canada's website where they show and they describe this.
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So when the rates go up to 5%, you know, you're going to notice some things, but it takes
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We're just starting to feel the full effects of the 5% interest rate.
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So, yes, it has something to do with the U.S. and uncertainty.
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Canadians are one of the most indebted countries on planet Earth, like for consumer.
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That means for every dollar you make, we have to serve as 184%.
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And so what happens is many people, and Tiff Macklin was at fault for this as well, is
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during the pandemic, they came out and Justin Trudeau came out and said, rates are going
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I don't know if you remember that interview, but in that interview, they encouraged Canadian
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citizens to borrow and to leverage their properties because interest rates would be low for a very
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In history, interest rates have always been going down.
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Yeah, they go up a bit, but they've been going down for 40 years.
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They're going to come back down, but the next cycle will be higher than the 5%.
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The problem is, is in Canada, they said that we have to break the glass.
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Who remembers the Bank of Canada, Carolyn Rogers, with her famous break the glass speech?
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They've been warning us about the potential issues.
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So for example, back in 2020, many of the mortgages, the average mortgage rate was sub 2%.
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Today, if you were to get a mortgage, you're around 4%.
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So you're doubling your mortgage interest costs.
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A lot of Canadians, and they showed like 60% of Canadians, are living $200 away from insolvency.
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And imagine you lose your revenue, your employment.
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So there are some, I'm not trying to scare anybody, but this has been a thing in the making
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There's probably going to have to be government intervention.
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And if you want to stay up to date with this type of information, make sure you follow me
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on X and my other channels, because I'm in the pulse of this information, and I'm providing
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Well, yeah, I think you're known kind of as like the chart guy on TikTok.
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You always have all the numbers and break it all down, which is what we love about it.
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Kevin, I want to bring you in on the conversation, because if you look at the financial picture
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of just everyday Canadians, it isn't good, right?
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And like Mark just pointed out, many of us are just $200 away from not being able to make
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And then you compound that with what our government does, which is just unbelievably blow out the
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Justin Trudeau doubled the government debt federally in his just nine years in office.
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It's like everything in our society, we're just like totally responsible when it comes
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Like, yeah, as Tiff Macklin warned, the government might have to intervene.
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But it's not like they're in good financial shape to begin with.
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It's not like they have been saving and putting away money for a rainy day, right?
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You know, in times of economic uncertainty, from a country's point of view, usually you
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You know, if there is an economic crisis, you know, you would go to your gold reserves to
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Canada is one of the only countries that has no gold.
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So, you know, we're apparently in this, you know, massive economic crisis.
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Yet we've been selling off our gold reserves since the 70s.
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And the final sale happened in 2016 under Stephen Pelosi, Justin Trudeau as prime minister.
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So we don't even have anything to lean on when it comes to, you know, dealing with this economic
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So there's really, you know, you talk about, you know, foreign hedge funds holding our
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There's only real two options that the central bank can do, you know, if they decide to sell.
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They can just let interest rates rise because there'd be no buyers.
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So bond values fall, interest rates rise, or they could intervene and then they could buy
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up all the debt that, you know, the are that these hedge funds don't want by creating currency
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out of thin air, which would, you know, collapse the purchasing power of the currency and drive
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inflation, you know, to even higher levels that they are now.
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So there's really two, only two ways out of this mess that we've created, which is a deflationary
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collapse, you know, collapse of, you know, all these asset bubbles, you know, stocks, real
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estate, and massive job losses and bankruptcies that sweep the economy.
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Or you could have an inflationary or hyperinflationary collapse, something like Venezuela.
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But, you know, if you were to be asked, what is the better of these two scenarios, the better
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is a deflationary collapse, because at least the middle class, and at least, you know, because
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your currency doesn't get shredded through inflation, right?
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But, you know, when you take a look at, you know, inflationary or hyperinflationary collapses,
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we've seen many of them, Weimar Germany, Zimbabwe, Venezuela.
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It's probably the worst thing that could happen.
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So government intervention into this, central banking intervention into this, to try to
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solve the problem that they have been creating for decades, is only going to exasperate the
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problem and make it so much worse and make it so much more painful.
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Well, it's so interesting that you say that the loonie might not exist or might collapse
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You know, we kind of think that we are, like, in a different class.
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We're like, in North America, we're safe, more protected from all those other things that
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Even I saw earlier this week, Conservative interim leader Andrew Scheer was on CBC, and
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the CBC host was, like, debating him over whether or not Canada printed money during the
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It was like a distinction without a difference.
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But, Mark, I want to tie this into Canada's unemployment report just came out.
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It looks like the rate of unemployment rose by 6.9% in April, and the economy only added
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And you pointed out to me that about half of those were temporary election-related jobs.
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And so the numbers are really just not looking good.
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This is the highest level of unemployment since 2016 outside of the pandemic, as well as we're
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going to lose, so this jobs report included 37,000 jobs that were hired for the election.
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We also have the film industry, which provides almost a quarter of a million jobs in Canada.
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It creates about $14 billion worth of economic activity.
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And the U.S. represents over 50% of all of the revenue jobs.
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And with the 100% tariff threat, which I have to say, I couldn't believe it, but it was not
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mentioned when Mark Carney was in the White House or during any of his meetings with Donald
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And I don't know if you saw Yves Francois Blanchet, but he said, you know, how did he not know?
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I'll give him a break on that because he only announced it 24 hours ago, but I think he was
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being sarcastic because if something was announced 24 hours ago, it should be first
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thought or first on your mind because it's so recent.
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So, yeah, a quarter of a million jobs, and those are in Vancouver and Toronto.
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And also in the report, it showed that the city of Toronto has unemployment rate over 10%.
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So just imagine the film industry goes belly up and it's already at 10% unemployment rate
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Obviously, there's some manufacturing job losses due to the pandemic or due to the tariffs
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So my take on this is that the Bank of Canada, they're in a tough spot because they see the
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economic, they see this report and they, you know, so we just found out yesterday that
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the Federal Reserve maintained their policy rate.
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And the Bank of Canada wants to move in sync with the Federal Reserve because if they move
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and there's a larger spread between the rates, then that affects the Canadian dollar.
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They might not be in a position where they could support the dollar based on this jobs
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They said they're going to look at it data set by data set.
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So before I was thinking that they were going to be pausing over through the summer and the
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We're now looking at a potential rate cut in June.
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Well, Kevin, I want to bring you in on part of this because Mark was talking about how,
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you know, you would really think that Donald Trump went out there and announced a 100%
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tariff on the film industry, which like Mark said, in cities like Vancouver and Toronto,
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I grew up in Vancouver, a lot of friends in the film industry, in a days into it.
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I actually used to work in it when I was a student.
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But anyway, like the industry came because of government subsidies, right?
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Government lured in the big American companies in part because Canada had a lower dollar,
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although back then it wasn't as low as it is today, but in part because it would get
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And the fact that Trump is kind of countering that, saying you can't cheat, you can't just
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bribe American companies to leave America without us fighting back.
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The fact that that wasn't brought up, though, in Carney and Trump's meeting, I just think
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it's such an indictment of how weak Mark Carney was.
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And yes, I came on the show and said that Donald Trump walked all over Carney.
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I think that the general consensus online, if you were on X or on YouTube or on any of
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these platforms, the independent voices, independent journalists and content creators all kind of
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agreed that Carney was looking sheepish and, you know, couldn't get a word in and was humiliated
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And yet, when you turn on the legacy media, if you read the Toronto Star, even Post Media,
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certainly the CBC, they literally had the exact opposite take, that Carney did fantastic,
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it was a great first meeting, that he got this great line in saying that some real estate
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properties are never for sale, and Trump agreed to that, and really just praising Mark Carney
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To me, it was such a distinction that it was literally the exact opposite of what actually
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happened, so I wonder if you could comment on those things for me.
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Well, yeah, like if you actually took the time to watch the entire press conference,
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you know, 30, 35 minutes or whatnot, and you analyze, you know, Mark Carney's, you know,
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actions, his, you know, body language, and if you, you know, analyze Trump and the interaction,
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it was clear as to who was the dominant and who was the submissive in that relationship
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between the two, you know, and Mark Carney, at one point, you know, Donald Trump was going
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on for about 20 minutes, Mark Carney had basically put his hand up so he could talk, and then
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he, you know, gave this spiel that it sounded like he's been rehearsing it in his head for
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weeks, and it's a line that he's been saying on the campaign trail, so it's nothing new,
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it's just another slogan, which is interesting because he is the guy that apparently hates
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slogans, I guess, you know, left wing slogans are okay, but, you know, it was, it was quite
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clear who, who, who won that, you know, Donald Trump said four, four things, we don't want
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your cars, we don't want your steel, we don't want your aluminum, and your predecessor was
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a disaster, talking about Krista Freeland, how she was horrible, and I'm sure your audience
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is aware, and I'm sure you're aware that, you know, Mark Carney is the godfather of Krista
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Freeland's child, so he did, he didn't even have the ability or the backbone to stand up
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and, and defend his, his, you know, godchild's mother, so does he really have the backbone
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to stand up for Canada when he can't even stand up for, you know, his own supposed, you
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know, family, I guess you can call it a family, because, you know, they're, they're pretty close,
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so, you know, it just shows you that he's very weak, you know, and he's only able to talk
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in, in sound bites, and, you know, I, I don't really see him as being this, you know, he
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campaigned for a very long time saying that, you know, vote for me, I'm going to stand up
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for Trump, and all his base were like, yeah, we're going to vote for you, because you're
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going to stand up for Trump, and then, as soon as he had the opportunity, he didn't do
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it, and then all of his supporters said, you know, he was such a genius for not standing up
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to Trump, so, like, it just, it's, you know, the, the, the mental gymnastics and the parental
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logic that goes on in these people's heads, they're never going to admit that they were
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wrong, but it's clear as day as to who came out on top and, and who didn't, you know, tariffs
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are still on, he doesn't want our products, and he basically insulted, he talked about
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the Canada's 51st state, he insulted our predecessors, and Mark Carney didn't have a word
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Well, and not only that, but the very next day, the governor of the Bank of Canada comes
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out and says, this is the biggest threat to Canada, and it will prompt us into, like,
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a spiral and a recession, so the Bank of Canada, you know, the guy that took, you know, there
00:21:17.320
was a few in between, but Mark Carney had that job once upon a time, and now Dick DeVacan
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is coming out the day after, I don't think that's exactly a glowing endorsement that there
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is institutional trust that Mark Carney will do the thing that he said he was going
00:21:33.160
Yeah, I have two points about the meeting is, so I counted airtime, so how much speaking
00:21:40.660
time on each side, it's kind of like when you play sports, they actually track how much
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time, say, let's say hockey, how much time the puck's on your stick, or, you know, how
00:21:52.360
Well, they did it for the debate, they had a big clock right on the debate stage saying
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how much time each of the four leaders had speaking, so it's a political thing too, is
00:22:01.060
Yeah, exactly, so, and one of the things is I tracked that, and then I published my findings
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on my X account, and it blew, like, it got like 300,000 views right away, because it showed
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that Mark Carney only spoke for three minutes and 12 seconds, and Donald Trump spoke for 30
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I mean, you don't, you don't need to explain how the meeting went, you just show that statistic,
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and you're like, well, I mean, he didn't have an opportunity.
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I just want to make a comment about that, because I'm pretty sure that Marco Rubio spoke
00:22:33.420
more, I don't know if you guys watched the whole thing, but at one point during Trump's
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remarks, he kind of got sidetracked, and he started talking about the Houthis at a ceasefire,
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and then he just sprang it onto Marco Rubio to kind of give an impromptu speech about
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the Houthis, so I wouldn't be surprised if Marco Rubio got more airtime than
00:22:49.420
I didn't track that, I just tracked the two, but that would be a funny statistic.
00:22:53.300
Another part of the, that I published as well is that, and it's incredible, is Mark Carney
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Woke is number one with Mark Carney, so is Justin Trudeau.
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They're the wokest people, and they're going to defend it, and that's why when one of you
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says Donald Trump is at war with woke, but in Canada, we're all about diversity, and then
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when Mark Carney's sitting there, and he only has three minutes, Donald Trump, and I counted,
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Donald Trump smashed, and I mean completely destroyed woke for four straight minutes, so
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he had four minutes of destroying woke, which is more than all of Mark Carney's talking time.
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I thought that was, and you should have seen his face.
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I screenshot a couple, and his face, he was just like, man, I wish he didn't go down the
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And if you, say you were woke, say you were someone who was like really all in for trans
00:23:54.540
and kids, and like all the craziness of the woke ideology, you would probably be pretty
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disappointed that your guy, Mark Carney, got elected, and there he was just like biting
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his tongue and quietly sitting there while Donald Trump was eviscerating the entire ideology.
00:24:08.700
Like, again, that just shows that Mark Carney doesn't have a spine.
00:24:12.400
If he truly believes in this stuff, he would have voiced his expressions, but he didn't.
00:24:17.700
One of the things I also noticed was that Mark Carney showed up with the delegation.
00:24:21.640
It was Dominic LeBlanc, finance minister, Melanie Jolie, the foreign minister, who was the
00:24:27.860
same foreign minister as Justin Trudeau, and then I thought it was Bill Blair, but I think
00:24:32.520
So he shows up at this meeting in the Oval Office with three Trudeau ministers who were
00:24:40.740
And so it was kind of embarrassing when Donald Trump noticed and said, you know, by the way,
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your predecessor was terrible, and that woman that worked for him, he didn't even, I don't
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And, like, literally, you know, the three people on the couch with him are, like, the
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same people that were part of that administration.
00:25:04.220
Well, even if you go back a little bit before that, just to show how much the United States
00:25:08.660
or this, you know, presidency has respect for Canada, did they meet them at the airport?
00:25:17.900
No, it was a bunch of, you know, staffers from the Canadian embassy that met Mark Carney
00:25:25.740
There was nobody from the United States, you know, nobody of, you know, any clout anyways
00:25:32.340
So that right there, that shows you just how little respect they have for this, you know,
00:25:39.080
this prime minister or this, you know, political party.
00:25:43.020
I think we forgot to cover that, that there's usually a protocol that when a head of state
00:25:46.420
comes or met with, if not the head of state, someone high ranking, right?
00:25:50.700
Like the high, a high ranking member from like the Senate or from the administration.
00:25:56.680
And it was the same thing, by the way, when Mark Carney first got elected, he went over
00:26:01.100
to the UK and France and he wasn't greeted by first ministers or the president or anything.
00:26:07.260
He was, again, just met by bureaucrats, which I think, I mean, for Canadians, it's like,
00:26:14.600
Remember how Justin Trudeau was supposed to restore our vision on the world stage and our
00:26:29.680
Apparently, our friends over at the state broadcaster, the CBC, spent $68,000 to gauge their employees'
00:26:37.960
feelings and their hurt feelings over mean things said online.
00:26:42.000
So this is according to Black Locks, says, Ask CBCers about feelings, came out yesterday.
00:26:47.400
The Department of Canadian Heritage paid $68,640 for research that asked CBC journalists
00:26:53.960
if they were the subject of hurtful remarks by conservative politicians or rival media, according
00:27:01.240
The study did not name names, but said that 50% said that opposition political parties were
00:27:16.940
And I just want to tie this to the CBC, with like a straight face, put out this report I
00:27:22.300
covered on the show earlier this week about how Danielle Smith's trip to Mar-a-Lago cost
00:27:31.460
They spoke to a political science professor to talk about waste.
00:27:33.860
They pretended that nothing came out of the meeting.
00:27:37.220
Of course, they didn't look into the cost of like Justin Trudeau going to Mar-a-Lago,
00:27:41.160
probably with like 25 staffers on a government jet, or the cost of like all the lobbyists
00:27:46.340
that the government pays to try to like get special trade deals or anything like that.
00:27:50.480
But they're really outraged by $10,000 for the premier, and apparently it was three staff,
00:27:54.800
I said on the show, two staff, it was actually three staff, to fly from Edmonton, Alberta,
00:27:59.100
to Palm Beach, Florida, right across the entire continent.
00:28:03.520
Apparently, they didn't even fly business class.
00:28:05.180
The premier of Alberta flew economy, and they only spent $10,000 for four people to spend
00:28:09.780
two nights in Florida and score two meetings with the most powerful person in the world.
00:28:15.680
$10,000 by the premier to meet Trump, huge waste of money.
00:28:18.500
But they themselves can spend $70,000 to talk about their hurt feelings.
00:28:25.720
Well, you know, what's funny is they probably spent more money putting that journalistic piece together.
00:28:30.720
They probably spent more than $10,000 trying to, you know, put all that, all those facts together
00:28:40.740
And, you know, they'll never point out the scandals and the corruption in their own,
00:28:46.300
on their own side, but they become into, you know, forensic investigators when it comes
00:28:52.920
You know, it's the same thing as, you know, the meltdown with the $16 orange juice, but,
00:28:56.940
you know, you know, billions of dollars to the green slush funds.
00:29:01.660
Well, and it's only when conservatives are in office, right?
00:29:03.440
Nobody, nobody filed access information to find out how many, how much orange juice the,
00:29:08.340
you know, Catherine McKenna or any Trudeau minister was drinking is only for the conservatives.
00:29:12.480
What do you think, Mark, what do you think about $70,000 for therapy or research to find
00:29:23.760
But one thing that, you know, going back to the $10,000 for Danielle Smith, one thing that
00:29:31.200
people don't, I don't know if people know this, but Melanie Jolie has a $51,000 a month,
00:29:41.840
not, not a year, a month bar tab where she, she's been spending $51,000 a month on alcohol.
00:29:51.900
So when you look at that and then I'm like, well, no wonder they brought her to the White
00:29:59.460
So, you know, that makes sense because when, during the, what she said, and I don't know
00:30:04.520
if you guys saw the press conference, but she said in the press conference, it was such
00:30:09.180
a successful meeting between the U S and Canada because Mark Carney had the opportunity and,
00:30:22.360
There's nothing to know about or get to know of.
00:30:24.780
So, you know, that's, um, yeah, I, um, this study thing, spending 70,000, um, our, our country,
00:30:34.140
that's why our country, um, is in the mess that we're in right now is because of absurd
00:30:44.880
And if we don't get back to common sense quickly, we're going to be in a world of pain.
00:30:53.480
Mark Nixon and Kevin from Government is Corrupt.
00:30:56.740
I had a lot of fun and, uh, have a great weekend.
00:31:03.820
We will be back again on Monday with all the news.
00:31:11.280
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