Will Erin O’Toole survive this week？
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Summary
Will Erin O'Toole survive this week in Ottawa? Let's break down the various camps fighting for the heart and soul of the Conservative Party of Canada. This week on The Candice Malcolm Show:
Transcript
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Will Erin O'Toole survive this week in Ottawa? Let's break down the various camps fighting for
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the heart and soul of the Conservative Party of Canada. I'm Candice Malcolm and this is The
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Candice Malcolm Show. Hi everyone, thank you so much for tuning into the show. I hope you are
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enjoying our new daily version of The Candice Malcolm Show. So if you've been watching the
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show recently, you know that ever since the election on September 20th here at The Candice
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Malcolm Show, we have been doing a deep dive, doing a post-mortem, trying to really understand
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what went wrong for the Conservatives. How did they end up losing this election that really they
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should have won? Justin Trudeau is so unpopular. Canadians are so sick of him and he's such a
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divisive figure. He won with the lowest share of the vote in Canadian history. So many Canadians
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are just absolutely done with him and so many were completely surprised, flabbergasted, to wake up on
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the morning of September 21st and see the results, see that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is still the
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Prime Minister because a lot of people who weren't really paying attention to politics,
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but may have just, you know, paid extra attention to this election campaign because of the pandemic,
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because of the lockdowns, because of the insane attacks on our rights and freedoms that have
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happened in this country. Assume that Justin Trudeau was done because he's so unpopular among people
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who are concerned about our liberties and our rights and freedoms in Canada. And so in order to
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understand how Justin Trudeau became Prime Minister, we have to, as Conservatives, hold up a mirror and
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look in the mirror and see what went wrong. What did we do wrong? From my perspective, Aaron O'Toole,
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the Conservative leader, did not run a strong campaign. He didn't put Conservative principles
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first. He ran essentially as a Liberal and that wasn't very compelling to voters. If you're given
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the option of two Liberal parties, you're going to go with the Liberal party that you know is Liberal as
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opposed to the other Liberal party, which sometimes presents themselves as Conservatives, flip-flops on
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the issues, you don't really know where they stand. And again, it was just not good on behalf
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of the Conservatives. So the reason I say that all of this, this is a very big week for Aaron O'Toole,
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a very big week for the Conservative party. I wrote my Toronto Sun column on this topic because there's
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two really big events that are happening this week. I'm going to walk you through what's going on and
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how we're really going to have a better understanding of what's happening in the party, whether Aaron
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O'Toole is the person that's going to remain on as leader to take the Conservatives into potentially
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four years in opposition and then another election, or whether they're going to say, okay, this is a
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totally failed strategy. This is not the guy. Let's cut bait before we invest too much time in a
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leader who's not going to win. So we're going to find that out this week and I'll tell you about
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those two events. So the first thing that's going on is Tuesday at noon. So tomorrow at noon,
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there is a post-election debrief meeting happening in Toronto at one of those fancy members-only
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private clubs. They're hosting a luncheon event. It's being hosted by Greg Lyle, who is a well-known
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pollster, and he is having a panel discussion with the Conservative campaign insiders. So the people who
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ran the campaign, the person who crafted the policy and the person who was the head of the war room,
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the leader of the campaign. So those individuals will be meeting at a private club, a club for
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Conservatives. So really an insider event for Conservative members, Conservative politicians and
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Conservative insiders, lobbyists, Conservative activists, that kind of thing in Toronto. So I think
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this is incredibly important to see because here we have a campaign where, you know, the strategy was
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clearly to try to mirror Justin Trudeau as closely as possible so that none of those wedge issues that
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Justin Trudeau set up as traps that Conservatives tend to fall into and not really know how to
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explain and articulate, you know, the whole campaign was designed so that those wouldn't exist.
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But because the Conservative Party so closely followed the Liberal Party, there wasn't really a compelling
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difference. There wasn't really a compelling reason to vote for Erin O'Toole. So the reason I say that
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this is a very important event is because here we have, you know, the people who run the campaign,
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people who, a lot of other insiders, especially people who are more on the true blue Conservative
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side, the people who have Conservative values and want a real Conservative Party, they see these
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individuals, not Greg Lyle, I'm not the pollster, he's just hosting the event, but the campaign insiders
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who are speaking on the panel, they see these individuals as the reason why Erin O'Toole lost.
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Because if you remember, when Erin O'Toole was running as leader of the party, he had a different,
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he had a different team, and he was presenting himself more as a true blue Tory. He was going
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to fight against the radical left. He was not going to water the party down. He was not going
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to be a Liberalite. He was not going to go back to the mushy middle. And then, of course,
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that's exactly what he did when he was running the campaign. So a lot of people see the fault
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of the individuals running the campaign. I see it even deeper, because at the end of the day,
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you know, it's Erin O'Toole who did that. It's him that didn't present himself in a consistent way,
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who flip-flopped on all these core issues, including carbon taxes and repealing Trudeau's
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arbitrary gun ban. But still, it's going to be really important to just see the tone that's
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struck at this meeting. Will these campaign leaders show some remorse, show contrition,
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admit that the strategy didn't work, right? The whole strategy of going to the mushy middle and
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running as a Liberal was to win in places like Toronto, places like Vancouver and in Quebec.
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And we know that the Conservatives didn't pick up any seats in those areas. In fact,
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they lost seats in Vancouver. They lost two seats in the GTA, and they did not win any new seats in
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Quebec. The only place in Canada they did pick up seats was in Atlantic Canada. And there was sort of
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a trend towards that anyway. We saw how the Nova Scotia election went to the Progressive Conservatives.
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So you could say that there was already an appetite to get rid of the Liberals, or at least in some
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places, change from Liberal to Conservative, as is typically the history in Atlantic Canada. And that
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wasn't necessarily because of Aaron O'Toole's. So the idea that they sold out the heart and soul of
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the Conservative Party in order to pick up seats in these places, and they didn't do that, they failed.
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Will they show contrition? Or alternatively, will they strike up the same tone that Aaron O'Toole did on
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election night? And in his post-election scrum with his media appearance, his press conference,
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the day after the election, both times, his tone was sort of victorious. He was speaking as though
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he had won. He didn't seem to acknowledge in any way, shape, or form that he had run a poor campaign,
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that his strategy had failed, that he was inconsistent to voters. None of that was really
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acknowledged. And a lot of people picked up on that and were critical of O'Toole for not showing
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more self-awareness and recognizing that no, he did lose the election, and he lost it worse than
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Andrew Scheer lost in 2019. So a lot of Tory insiders will be looking at that to see how that
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goes. So at the same time as this event is taking place in Toronto, this private swanky club with the
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insiders and the guys behind the scenes running the campaign, over in Ottawa, we're going to have
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a much more public brawl for the heart and soul of the Conservative Party. Not public because it's not
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televised, but public just in terms of that's where Erin O'Toole is going to be. And that is where
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every MP, every Conservative MP, both the outgoing ones, the ones who lost in the election, there was
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nine MPs who lost, as well as the incoming ones, so the individuals who won new seats, they're all
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going to be in Ottawa, they're all at a caucus meeting. And so for my Toronto Sun column, I spoke
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to a couple of Conservative MPs to really get a read and an understanding of what this caucus event
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is going to look like. And so there's a couple big takeaways that are going to happen at this
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caucus event. First, it's worth noting that the dean of caucus, an MP named Cheryl Gallant, she called
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this meeting, she called this caucus meeting. This is the first time that caucus, so all of the Conservative
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MPs, first time at their meeting since the election. And this is the first time in history that the dean of
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the caucus has actually called a meeting like this. That's not how the precedent usually works, but
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presumably she saw the need to do this post-bordem to get everyone together into a room to discuss what went
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wrong and to figure out the path forward. So all the caucus is going to be there. And from what was described
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to me, this is an opportunity to do basically like an airing of the grievances. This is an opportunity for all the MPs to
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get in a room, they line up at the microphone, and they just, you know, speak their piece, give their two cents about what
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went wrong in the campaign, what the flaws were, what the faults were, maybe make the case for a new leader or make the case why
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Aaron O'Toole should stay. And from what I'm told, caucus is pretty split. So the way that it's been
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described to me is that there are basically three factions in the party right now, three different
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groups of MPs who fall into different camps. So I'm going to go through the three right now. So the
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first group are the people who are the staunch Aaron O'Toole supporters. These are the people who
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believe in the direction that he's taking the party, perhaps are Red Tories, perhaps they just really like
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Aaron as a person, I think he's a good guy, a good leader. And, you know, they weren't, obviously they
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were disappointed in the outcome, but they think that the party is heading on the right path. And
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they just stand behind their guy, they stand behind Aaron O'Toole, no matter what, it's people who sort
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of ideologically align with him, but also people who are just in positions of power, people who have,
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you know, lots of responsibilities in the party or good titles. And, you know, they've formed good
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relationships, they're no tool. And they don't want to jeopardize that they're loyal to their guy.
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And they don't want a party review where they could lose their position power, or they could
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find themselves on the outside. So a small group of MPs fit into that category. The polar opposite
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of that are the people who are absolutely angry, they're enraged, they think that Aaron O'Toole needs
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to go, that he should have resigned on election night, not happy with the positions that he took,
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not happy about the carbon taxes, resentful about the way that Andrew Scheer, the conservative
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leader who ran in 2019, and then was quickly axed. As soon as he lost the campaign, he said he wasn't
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going to step down. And all of a sudden, you know, all these bad stories came tumbling into the media,
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leak, leak, leak. Andrew Scheer was basically, his name was dragged through the mud to the point where
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he just chose that he was going to resign, that he didn't have a future in the conservative party.
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So people who are loyal to Andrew Scheer were still bitter and resentful about the way that he was
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treated, the way that he basically had a knife in his back after the campaign. And they see it only fair
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that Aaron O'Toole be subject to the same treatment, given that he didn't even do as well
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actorally as Andrew Scheer. So again, sort of a combination of MPs who ideologically really deeply
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oppose what Aaron O'Toole is doing in the direction he's taking the party in, as well as those who are just
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sort of more loyal to Andrew Scheer and feel like there's a double standard here that Aaron O'Toole is
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avoiding the scrutiny and the criticism that Andrew got, and they don't think that's fair.
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And finally, the third group of MPs are, this is where I'm told, most of caucuses. So the majority
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of MPs who are just sort of in the middle, they haven't really made up their mind, they don't know
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yet what they're going to do, they don't really want to rock the boat, they don't really like the idea
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of a leadership race that could again divide the party even further. They're not really happy with
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Aaron O'Toole and how he ran the campaign, but they're not angry enough to make him go. So obviously
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these are the most important people in caucus because how this meeting goes on Tuesday will
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determine whether they join camp A, the Aaron O'Toole supporters camp, or camp B, the Aaron O'Toole
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must go camp. So these are, you know, these are the people who they're fighting over. These are the
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people who will determine the future of the party. So I'm told that in 2019, when they had their first
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caucus meeting after the election, it was a total brawl. It was a seven-hour debate. One MP told me
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that it was horrible, that people were just lashing out every frustration, every bit of anger. They were
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letting Andrew Scheer hear it. It was really uncomfortable. And again, it just showed how fractious
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the conservative coalition is. And as we all know, the Conservative Party of Canada is a big tent party,
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meaning it's a coalition of a lot of different types of conservatives. And we all have a lot in
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common. But really, there are fundamental differences in the worldviews between, say,
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red Tories or downtown Toronto Tories who just sort of want to get along with the modern progressive
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social values of the popular culture compared to staunch social conservatives who want to uphold
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tradition and, you know, guard the family. And the distinctions between ardent libertarians who
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want a very, very minimal government role versus other kinds of conservatives who see a bigger role
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for government. So there's obviously disagreements. There's some core agreements as well. And so
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obviously, it's the job of any Conservative leader to keep these people together. And whether or not
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Aaron O'Toole did a good job is sort of yet to be seen. Many people adamantly say he didn't. Others did.
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Now, another important thing that will happen at this caucus meeting on Tuesday is that Conservative
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MPs will vote on something called the Reform Act. The Reform Act was introduced by MP Michael
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Chong. He introduced it a couple of years ago. They voted on it before. It didn't all get through.
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They're going to vote on it again. There are sort of four components of it. And one of the key things
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that this Reform Act will do is enable members of parliament to call a leadership review. So within the
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caucus, the MPs will be able to determine whether or not there will be a leadership review. So
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this could potentially pave the path down the road for a leadership review, for caucus to determine
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whether or not they want to oust Aaron O'Toole in a legal way. And so from one of the MPs that I
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spoke to, he told me that at this point, there is no will to oust Aaron O'Toole, that basically there
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are three reasons why. So the first reason is that the election was essentially a draw. The map going
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into the election looks eerily similar to the map coming out. There was only really a small handful
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of places where it changed. There was no big winner. There's no big loser. The biggest loser, of course,
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were the taxpayers who had to pay $610 million for the campaign. Of course, Justin Trudeau lost as well
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because he was after his majority government. But he's still prime minister. So in some ways, he still
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won. So the first one, again, that there's no clear winner and that basically it was a draw. The second reason is
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that the Conservative Party has been switching leaders so frequently. So, you know, you had Stephen Harper
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going into the election in 2015. Then he resigned. You had interim leader Ronna Ambrose. Andrew Scheer
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was elected leader in 2017. 2019, he stepped down. And then Aaron O'Toole was named leader. So we've
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had four leaders in the last couple of years. And that's not a good way to build up your brand as a
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party. You need some kind of name recognition. Aaron O'Toole has been leader for just a year now.
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So he hasn't had a lot of time. And that year was a pandemic year. So it wasn't a regular time where
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he could have been out campaigning, out making a name for himself. He was really in a tough position
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and a lot of MPs recognize that. And because of that, they want to give him another opportunity
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to go. And the third one is, I think the probably the most important one is that Aaron O'Toole,
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I'm told, is a very nice guy. He's very personable. He has really good connections. He works really hard
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on his connections with members of parliament, with senators, with people who run local constituencies,
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people who run the electoral districts. He's just the kind of guy that when he sees you,
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he remembers your name, or he'll ask about your kids. Or if something happens, he'll write a
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personal note. He's really big, I'm told, on writing handwritten letters. He's sort of an old
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school kind of guy in that way. He's very personable, very nice, very sweet, and that he's likable.
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And so that's what I'm told. Of course, we don't know what will happen. Tuesday will be a big day for
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the Conservative Party and for Aaron O'Toole, and how he presents himself, how he handles things,
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and really how the MPs organize themselves, and really what happens at that caucus event on Tuesday
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will be very telling. So we at the Candace Malcolm Show and at True North will watch that event very
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closely and carefully, and we will keep you updated. So even if Aaron O'Toole survives this week, even if
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he survives his private meeting in Toronto with his top advisors, as well as the caucus meeting with all
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Conservative members of Parliament, that doesn't mean he's out of the clear. Aaron O'Toole still has a
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long way to go to prove it to Canadians, as well as to Conservatives and the Conservative base, who he
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is, what he believes in, why he abandoned Conservative principles in the last campaign, and whether or not
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he's going to do that again. I'm Candace Malcolm, and this is the Candace Malcolm Show.