Canadians are desperate for change, and polls are showing that if there was an election this winter, Justin Trudeau would lose in a historic landslide. So the question is, when will the election finally take place? In this episode, Candice talks with Hamish Marshall, who was our in-house pollster during the 2021 election, and is now a partner at One Persuades, a government relations and strategy firm.
00:00:00.000Canadians are desperate for change, and polls are showing that if there were an election this winter, Justin Trudeau would lose in an historic landslide defeat.
00:00:08.560So the only real question that remains is when will the election finally take place?
00:00:12.820I'm Candice Malcolm, and this is The Candice Malcolm Show.
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00:00:44.440So we all know that Canadians have had enough of Justin Trudeau.
00:00:47.480After nine long years of woke, virtue signaling, endless embarrassing scandals, ruinous economic policies,
00:00:54.160Canadians are telling us they want change.
00:00:55.840Poll after poll after poll show us that the overwhelming majority of Canadians want Trudeau to go.
00:01:02.600And like I said, if there was an election held today, Trudeau's main opponent, opposition leader Pierre Polyev,
00:01:07.500would win a sweeping historical landslide in an election.
00:01:11.620But the only question is, is there going to be an election anytime soon?
00:01:14.800We know that there is a minority government situation, so the government could fall at any time,
00:01:19.520but it could also remain intact for another almost two years.
00:01:22.540So to help us gain some insight on this topic, I'm joined by my guest today, Hamish Marshall.
00:02:26.420I mean, the spending limit will be a little over $30 million whenever the election happens.
00:02:32.480And the NDP don't have anything like that amount of money or have really the capacity to get there in the short term.
00:02:38.760But more to the point, they're also not doing particularly well in the polls.
00:02:43.540They're not doing particularly badly either.
00:02:45.420But in order for them, right now, things are going okay for them.
00:02:48.940They're more or less maintaining where they've been in the polls.
00:02:51.040And they like being in the catbird seat and making the liberals jump up and down.
00:02:57.200One of the things, of course, is the liberal government is kind of out of ideas.
00:03:01.440And as a result, the NDP is actually probably gaining, have more influence today than they did, say, a year ago.
00:03:07.660Or back when the deal was first signed in 2022.
00:03:12.860Because with the liberals running out of ideas, the NDP can now just sort of suggest ideas.
00:03:17.340And they're more likely to be taken and implemented.
00:03:20.660So I think the NDP feels they're in a pretty good position.
00:03:22.580And they're not going to rock the boat in the short term.
00:03:25.300Well, it's interesting you say that because I did notice some news, first of all, that the NDP is starting to hire digital organizers, regional organizers out in British Columbia.
00:03:38.260Why are they hiring for jobs for an election unless there's something coming?
00:03:41.520Party treasurer recently said that the NDP expects to be debt-free in 2024.
00:03:46.840So, you know, do you think any of those are point of signs that maybe an election might be coming maybe later in 2024?
00:03:55.000Well, I mean, look, there's always a possibility.
00:03:57.760But, you know, if they're trying to be debt-free in 2024, that means then they have to start saving their nest egg for the next election before they take on another ton of debt for the next election, right?
00:04:06.840So that, to me, sounds more like they want to get clear in 2024 so that they can, you know, save a few million bucks and go into 2025.
00:04:16.980The other thing that they, you know, right now, despite the best efforts of the conservatives, they have not been terribly tagged with the sort of association with the liberals, right?
00:04:29.500Like this liberal NDP deal has not really dragged their poll numbers down.
00:04:35.200You know, Trudeau's lack of popularity and increasing lack of popularity hasn't dragged the NDP down yet.
00:04:42.020The closer they get to an election, the greater the chance of that happening and the more chance I think they'll have of pulling the plug.
00:04:49.900It's interesting. Some polls that you see show the liberals quite a bit ahead of the NDP.
00:04:54.700Others, I've seen some polls that show them neck and neck and even some showing that Jagmeet Singh could become the leader of an opposition.
00:05:00.920You never know what could happen in an election, but given Trudeau's negatives and given Canadians' fatigue with Justin Trudeau, it's possible that he could get wiped out.
00:05:09.540Let's talk about Trudeau a little bit. He's made it clear that he intends to stay on as leader and to fight, but so many of these polls are saying that even among liberal voters, they don't like Trudeau.
00:05:18.100And if there were a new leader, not Trudeau, that they would be more likely to show up and vote.
00:05:23.260So what do you think is the future for our prime minister?
00:05:26.820Well, I think he's sticking around. I think he believes he's got a mission to save Canada from Pierre Polyev.
00:05:33.300He cannot. He's a good campaigner. Give him full credit. He's good at campaigning.
00:05:37.340But fundamentally, his view of the country is that a candidate like Pierre Polyev can't possibly win a majority government.
00:05:47.540And therefore, if he sticks around and runs a good campaign, he'll be able to beat him.
00:05:50.720But, you know, I think the polls are increasingly showing that's that's not true.
00:05:55.560And the really big thing that matters more than the ballot question of, you know, who you're voting for is those personal numbers.
00:06:03.580And what we've seen is over the last few months, Pierre Polyev's numbers have just kept going up and up.
00:06:07.940And Justin Trudeau's numbers have kept going down and down.
00:06:10.940And that's a real problem for the prime minister.
00:06:13.560So as far as the liberals go, do you think that the liberals would be better off with Justin Trudeau, given Canadians tired view of him?
00:06:22.600Or do you be better off starting fresh?
00:06:24.640I mean, there are some other names being bounced around, like Mark Carney, who is a former governor of the Bank of Canada, and perhaps Chrystia Freeland, who's a deputy prime minister.
00:06:32.640Do you think either of those names would would give the liberals more hope or give them a boost in the polls?
00:06:37.920Well, I think change is always is always a risk with change.
00:06:41.560I think the desire for change is so great in Canada right now that a new leader would be interesting to Canadians.
00:06:49.700There'd be a lot of focus on that leadership race.
00:06:51.400And whether we ended up with either the people you mentioned or, you know, Melanie Jolie or Champagne or somebody else, that would be a way of the liberals trying to change the channel.
00:07:02.600And I think at least for a few months, it probably would quite successfully change the channel because the liberal party would be electing a prime minister.
00:07:10.320And that would drive everyone's interest in politics.
00:07:13.280And the focus would be on that leadership race.
00:07:15.740Whether that new prime minister would be able to persuade Canadians after that, that they're fundamentally different from the Trudeau government that they probably were deeply connected with is another story entirely.
00:07:26.420But I think it would in the in the short term, it would work.
00:07:29.160But there's really no mechanism for it.
00:07:33.460And liberal liberal caucus isn't going to throw him out.
00:07:35.940We're not going to see an error, you know, a revolt the same way that Aaron O'Toole in the liberal caucus.
00:07:41.340The liberal caucus is overwhelmingly made up of people who were elected after Trudeau became leader, whose entire experience in politics is with Trudeau as leader.
00:07:53.060And many of whom don't have sort of deep institutional roots in the liberal party and activism that predates him as leader.
00:08:00.680You know, I went and looked at it the other day of the 150, I think, 655 liberal MPs are right now.
00:08:09.840There's only 19 that were elected before Trudeau as leader.
00:08:14.880So it's a very, very small percentage of them.
00:08:19.040Those are the sort of people, those experienced people would have probably been nucleus for any kind of revolt against them.
00:08:23.900But it's a very small number, and many of them are actually diehard loyalists of Trudeau, people like Dominic LeBlanc.
00:08:30.520So I think the chances of anything coming out of the liberal caucus and getting rid of Trudeau is very, very low.
00:08:37.420These are people whose political career exists entirely in the Trudeau universe, and it's difficult for them to imagine what life would be like with a different leader.
00:09:46.480No, and my understanding is that that was a very deliberate tactic, that they called for a ceasefire in order to deal with the pressure they're getting internally from constituencies with vocal Muslim populations.
00:10:01.220And then they went to the MPs that represent areas of substantial Jewish populations and say, say what you need to say.
00:10:09.760If you go and disagree with it, that's fine.
00:10:12.200And it was very much a deliberate way.
00:10:13.960It was their way of squaring the circle.
00:10:15.420So I think it's emblematic of nothing more than issues management.
00:10:21.340Well, it sounds like very traditional, liberal, transactional vote banking politics.
00:10:26.320Let's tack back and talk about Pierre Polyev.
00:10:28.600You mentioned that Trudeau believes that it's impossible for a conservative government led by someone like Pierre Polyev to win a majority government.
00:10:37.120What do you think is the path for victory for conservatives?
00:10:40.280Do you think that it is possible for Pierre Polyev to win a majority government?
00:10:44.500There's absolutely no question that the conservatives can win the next election.
00:10:49.500The number of seats that are necessary isn't, you know, it's really only winning 50 more seats effectively.
00:10:59.120And the numbers in Ontario are such that the conservatives should be on track for that for across the country.
00:11:06.700So, you know, basically the conservatives have to do better in the suburbs.
00:11:10.380And the desire for change in the suburbs is very, very high.
00:11:13.500And Pierre Polyev's message has been resonating.
00:11:16.500The affordability, the incredible thing about the affordability issue is as much as people sort of say, well, maybe inflation will go down or things will change or whatever it is.
00:11:26.280The affordability is bigger today as an issue than it was a year ago or two years ago when Pierre Polyev was really first sounding, I guess, two and a half years ago when he was still sounding the alarm and even bigger than it was when he was running for leader.
00:11:43.200And the fact of the matter is, is that the government has had basically has done nothing that has given them any credit on this issue.
00:11:50.060People are not feeling that people are feeling things are getting worse, not better.
00:11:53.640Well, to Pierre Polyev's credit, he's been sounding the alarm about inflation for a very long time before it was really, you know, an issue that was affecting Canadians every day at the grocery store and the gas pumps.
00:12:06.340He's one of the most knowledgeable people that I've spoken to and I've had him on the show to explain it when it comes to these topics.
00:12:12.400So he knows his file and he's really carved out a niche for himself.
00:12:17.580I'm wondering if you were advising Pierre Polyev, you know, you have the legacy media say that his tone is nasty and that he's unelectable and that Canadians won't like his combative nature.
00:12:28.720We've seen him push back against some reporters sometimes and not necessarily take the most, you know, friendly relationship with the legacy media.
00:12:38.000Do you think that's going to hurt him if you were advising him?
00:12:41.180What would you tell him with regards to media relations?
00:12:44.360No, I don't think it's hurting him at all.
00:12:45.980I think that he's realized that the vast majority of Canadians don't get really get their news from their legacy media in a normal in the way that they would have 10 or 15 years ago.
00:12:55.640People might watch a little bit of the news, see the article in the newspaper, see a whole bunch of different things or clips online.
00:13:03.780And, you know, Pierre Polyev is the first politician in Canada to really, truly understand how to deliver messages built for social media.
00:13:14.120I mean, you know, the number of shares he gets on videos on Instagram or YouTube are remarkable, the number of views he gets.
00:13:22.180He's getting far more views for most of his videos than nightly newscasts would be.
00:13:30.500He's already really gone around them and doesn't need them in the traditional sense.
00:13:35.960And frankly, the, you know, things like the Liberal Bill C-18, you know, killing the sharing of news links on Facebook has actually helped someone like Pierre because his videos aren't getting blocked on social media.
00:13:52.600But, you know, news stories about him from CTV or CBC or whatever are getting blocked.
00:13:58.200And it's only accelerating the decline of the traditional media.
00:14:04.220I'm sure that the legacy media are unhappy with Trudeau about that, although I'm sure they're happy about all the money that they are getting from the Liberal government.