The Charlie Kirk Show - 28 Days Later: Maricopa Edition with Jonathan Cagle and Tyler Bowyer

00:00:00.000 Hey, everybody.

00:00:00.000 Today in the Charlie Kirk Show, we have an entire hour dedicated to Arizona.

00:00:05.000 How do we fix it?

00:00:06.000 What actually happened on Election Day?

00:00:08.000 Tyler Boyer joins us and Jonathan Kagle, a financial analyst, helps us walk through all the different dynamics, what happened on Election Day.

00:00:16.000 As always, you can email me your thoughts, freedom at charliekirk.com, and support our program at charliekirk.com/slash support.

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00:00:50.000 Buckle up, everybody.

00:00:51.000 Here we go.

00:00:52.000 Charlie, what you've done is incredible here.

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00:01:34.000 With us is Tyler Boyer, who is one of the 168 on the RNC from the great state of Arizona.

00:01:39.000 And joining us now is Jonathan Cagle, who has had some very interesting tweets and a data analysis about what happened in Arizona.

00:01:48.000 Jonathan, welcome to the program.

00:01:50.000 Good to be here, Charlie.

00:01:51.000 Okay, so Jonathan, you have a data guy, you're a financial analyst, and you've gone through some of the data from this last election.

00:01:58.000 What have you found when it pertains to the Arizona election?

00:02:02.000 I would say probably five or six different shows, I'd imagine, but the mathematics really just don't add up.

00:02:10.000 And in the time environment that we live in, where the language is being sacrificed or conceded every day, it's important to stay in tune to mathematics because math is the one language that's unchanging.

00:02:24.000 And so if you can make the numbers match up or not match up, it's hard to argue against it.

00:02:31.000 Okay, so give us some examples.

00:02:33.000 What does that mean?

00:02:34.000 So walk us through some of the math that you find to be illuminating for our audience.

00:02:38.000 So basically, what I was looking at is demographics.

00:02:42.000 You know, obviously, Democrats are more likely to vote by mail or early, and Republicans are less trusting.

00:02:49.000 So they're more likely to vote in person on election day.

00:02:52.000 Minimize the number of chains of custody that they have to go through.

00:02:56.000 And Maricopa also knew this as well.

00:02:59.000 And so when you're going through into an election that's very polarizing and you're expecting a surge in turnout, it's very good to have a baseline going in in the event that any kind of shenanigans happen.

00:03:11.000 So what I did is I looked at the number of mail-in and early ballots they had received, which statewide was 1.4 million, and 976,000 of those were from Maricopa County as well.

00:03:24.000 I also knew the population demographics of Maricopa tends to be roughly 62% of Arizona's total state population, being one of the largest counties in the country.

00:03:34.000 So what I wanted to know is: okay, compared to 2020, what are they expecting?

00:03:39.000 Well, Maricopa's on documentation.

00:03:41.000 It said that they had 395,000 in-person on Election Day that they accommodated, using only 175 in-person polling places.

00:03:55.000 And they referenced this in their election plans and in the preparation between the primaries and the general election getting ready to be able to accommodate all these people.

00:04:06.000 So what they did is in 2020, they had 175 polling locations.

00:04:12.000 They announced that they were expecting a surge in double that number.

00:04:16.000 So 395 times two, you would expect it to be somewhere in the neighborhood of 750 to 800,000 people.

00:04:24.000 or somewhere in there.

00:04:26.000 But also at the same time, they were expecting a relatively similar drop in early voting and voting by mail.

00:04:33.000 And they gave the COVID pandemic resolution as the main reason.

00:04:37.000 So I knew, okay, based on 2016, 2018, and 2020, the demographics dictate that we're going to have probably between 2.4, 2.7 million voters on Election Day, depending on turnout.

00:04:51.000 And I'm sure you guys would agree, this was one of the more polarizing midterm elections in recent memory.

00:04:58.000 And knowing that we had 1.4 going in, it was a good idea to anticipate another 900 to a million at least on Election Day.

00:05:09.000 And then when we look at all the background data leading up, and we looked at their own models that they used, Stephen, Richard, and Maricopa are wholly responsible.

00:05:20.000 They have sole discretion to set up Election Day infrastructure.

00:05:25.000 And they use their own model.

00:05:26.000 They made the mistake of announcing it to the public, I guess, as a show of good faith, but it allowed people to kind of crunch the numbers and put two and two together.

00:05:36.000 And so I bothered to do that, knowing what baseline had going in.

00:05:40.000 And just based on their own numbers, I calculated that they were well short of the number that they were expecting to receive in person on election day by significant magnitude.

00:05:52.000 Tyler, I want to give Jonathan a lot of credit too because we've been following some of the points he's been making on Twitter for a long time.

00:05:58.000 And he's one of the good guys that are on Twitter talking about this.

00:06:02.000 Because for a lot of normal people kind of jumping into this world for the first time in Maricopa County.

00:06:09.000 And again, Maricopa County is really good to look at because this is similarly of what's happening to places that we don't have eyes, like Philadelphia, and places that we do have eyes, like yesterday in Fulton County.

00:06:20.000 So the big question is, well, how do all these things matter?

00:06:24.000 How did all these things end up?

00:06:25.000 And in Georgia, we saw there was longer wait times and the wee hours of the late earlies that we were coming through, which tended to benefit Republicans.

00:06:38.000 We had long lines that were happening in Maricopa County.

00:06:42.000 We had long lines that were reported across Pennsylvania and oddly Republican areas.

00:06:47.000 So the point that I think he's brought up on some of these messages that he's put out and the time, the numbers that he's brought up is the comparison of, okay, does it matter that cutting down the number of polling places, does the cutting down the number of polling places actually have a negative impact on the ability for voters to vote?

00:07:10.000 And the answer to that question is obviously overwhelmingly yes.

00:07:13.000 Overwhelmingly yes.

00:07:15.000 And this is, and so as time goes on, so the funny part is, is that you have Democrats and you have, you know, Republicans and or Democrats in Republican clothing here, like Stephen Richard saying, oh, no, no, no, no, we know we're so smart.

00:07:30.000 We're so much smarter than you.

00:07:32.000 We know all the anticipated wait times.

00:07:35.000 We know that, you know, 223 vote centers is perfectly what we need.

00:07:39.000 We know exactly where they need to go.

00:07:41.000 We're so we're so smart.

00:07:43.000 And everybody like us, we're saying, no, no, no, no, cutting down from 500 something polling places that we had just a few years ago to now when you had 500.

00:07:52.000 I believe the last time we had that many was in 2016.

00:07:55.000 I could be wrong.

00:07:56.000 So when Trump won.

00:07:56.000 Really?

00:07:58.000 Yeah.

00:07:59.000 Yes.

00:08:02.000 I could be wrong, but this was, but this is the whole point.

00:08:06.000 I don't have it right in front of me right now, the exact numbers.

00:08:09.000 But remember, 2016 was when Helen Purcell cut down the primary number of polling places to 200 and 100 and some odd polling places.

00:08:18.000 And that's when everyone like lambasted her.

00:08:20.000 So I believe what, if I remember, recollect correctly, she went back and she's like, don't worry, we're going to have all our precinct-based polling places open in 2016.

00:08:28.000 And then it was after that, Adrian Fontes got elected in 18, 20, 22 now, we have this vote center model, which is now, you know, the Helen Purcell screw-up model, which is 200, only 200 polling places.

00:08:40.000 So you have 223 polling places across the valley to facilitate anywhere which should have been between 275,000 and 400,000 same-day voters.

00:08:50.000 They were projecting that it could be upwards of 400,000, Charlie.

00:08:53.000 Stephen Richard texted you that.

00:08:53.000 Yeah, exactly.

00:08:55.000 Yes.

00:08:55.000 He like told me that.

00:08:56.000 Yes.

00:08:57.000 And that would have been correct if they could have facilitated Anthem, for example, three-hour waiting line.

00:09:06.000 So the point that Jonathan's making in a lot of his tweets, which is absolutely correct, and it's everything that we, you kind of know, but you're not saying out loud or texting all the dots, which is if the combination of cutting down the polling places to 223, right, essentially, from where it used to be, to the combination of also all these machines mysteriously going down in the morning in the specific hours that we know the traffic and the volume is going to be high.

00:09:33.000 There's basically what he's saying without directly saying, is if I think maybe he has directly said this, is if you do this, right, this is what the result will be.

00:09:46.000 Yeah.

00:09:46.000 I mean, so, but then let's.

00:09:48.000 Meaning, if you shut this down, there's no way that you're ever going to make up those votes.

00:09:52.000 Number one, you're going to scare people away from the polling places later in the day.

00:09:55.000 Number two, you're going to turn people away.

00:09:57.000 Number three, you're going to have so many problems that you're not going to be able to basically take in that many votes, right?

00:10:04.000 So the total number of votes that were actually cast are way underneath what the projection would be.

00:10:12.000 The end of the year is right around the corner, and it's time for you to consider a change in your investment plan.

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00:11:13.000 So Jonathan, is it fair to say that Maricopa County intentionally did not have the infrastructure to be able to facilitate what Carrie Lake needed on election day?

00:11:25.000 It would be 100% accurate to say that or fair to say because if they anticipate $750,000 or $800,000, but their max infrastructure can only accommodate $320,000 or even $350,000, you have a huge deficit that you can accommodate already going in.

00:11:45.000 So I suppose the question is, you know, how do we go about fixing this?

00:11:51.000 Tyler and I talked about it.

00:11:53.000 But before we go into that, I just want to kind of remind our listeners.

00:11:55.000 So Arizona does voting in a very bizarre way.

00:11:59.000 223 voting centers in Maricopa County.

00:12:02.000 Can you walk us through your math again?

00:12:05.000 Because Tyler and I, when we did our math, we were anticipating.

00:12:09.000 This is why, this is why on the live stream, we were so committed to saying Kerry's going to win because we thought on election day, okay, 300 to 330,000 people were going to show up on election day.

00:12:20.000 Ended up being like 270, right?

00:12:21.000 249, 270, right?

00:12:23.000 Right near there.

00:12:24.000 I have the number right in front of me, but it was below our expectations.

00:12:27.000 So then we said, okay, people just ended up dropping off their ballots, right?

00:12:27.000 Yeah.

00:12:31.000 People did ballot drop-offs, which did not perform very well for us, as well as we wanted them to.

00:12:37.000 Yeah, they were clearly harvesting last-minute ballot.

00:12:40.000 Yeah, they were clearly illegally harvesting them.

00:12:42.000 And that was just shocking because we said, why is it that these precincts that should be voting for Kerry Lake are not voting for Kerry Lake with ballot drop-offs?

00:12:48.000 Because Kerry underperformed Trump 2020.

00:12:51.000 Hard to believe this ballot drop.

00:12:52.000 Really hard to believe, right?

00:12:54.000 So therefore, you know, the number, our math wasn't wrong in our projections, our predictions, but the only missing widget, if you will, Jonathan, is that there were people that had the intent to vote and they ended up not voting.

00:13:08.000 Is that right?

00:13:09.000 Yeah, absolutely.

00:13:10.000 So if you look at their 2022 election plan document where they explain their model, they give basically a number of total polling sites of 220.

00:13:21.000 They give 25 voting booths per site and they give the total time it takes for one person to basically cast their vote, which includes a three-minute check time and an 11-minute cast of ballot time.

00:13:34.000 So just by reverse engineering that, we can know how many voters per hour that each booth can take on.

00:13:43.000 So if it takes one person 14 minutes and you have 60 minutes in one hour, you know that there are only 4.28 voters per booth per hour.

00:13:55.000 We know there's 13 hours in election day.

00:13:58.000 All right.

00:13:59.000 So how many voters can one booth handle on election day?

00:14:03.000 55 voters per booth.

00:14:05.000 If we do 220 centers with 25 booths each, we know that's 5,500 total voting booths in Maricopa County.

00:14:15.000 You do the math on that, how many can actually, under normal, optimal conditions, and this was their highest peak.

00:14:22.000 So they were assuming the highest traffic possible.

00:14:25.000 The max total that they could accommodate in Maricopa was 306,020.

00:14:31.000 When you're expecting X and you set your infrastructure only to be able to accommodate 38% of X without even chasing down a single voter to determine whether they've been disenfranchised, you've infrastructurally disenfranchised them before a single ballot is cast.

00:14:51.000 Yeah, it's structural disenfranchisement is what it is.

00:14:54.000 This is structural suppression.

00:14:56.000 And this is what's so sick.

00:14:58.000 And this is why we've got to go hard.

00:15:02.000 And this is what we should have done.

00:15:04.000 Knowing what we knew about Stephen Richer and Bill Gates, the Republican Party should have had an army of lawyers here months, preemptively, years in advance that were keeping an eye on every communication.

00:15:16.000 We should have been knowing everywhere these people went, every meeting that they had.

00:15:20.000 And identifiably through that process, we could have, I mean, we did foresee this structural.

00:15:27.000 You and I both tweeted about it and spoke about it multiple times and weeks in advance.

00:15:31.000 October 27th, I sent out a tweet that you helped write, which was, Stephen Richer, you're not ready for the traffic jam that's going to come.

00:15:38.000 And we were laughed at.

00:15:39.000 Yeah.

00:15:39.000 And we said, we said, what's going to happen?

00:15:41.000 They're going to either run out of paper.

00:15:43.000 They're going to intentionally, right?

00:15:44.000 Lines are changed.

00:15:45.000 They're going to run out of, they're going to run out of ink or toner issues, which we were right.

00:15:50.000 Long lines and chain of custody issues.

00:15:56.000 And all those things played out exactly as we said.

00:15:59.000 Because again, this is just as you're saying, Jonathan, this is a structural build out here.

00:16:05.000 And they are not equipped to even handle even the most minute of changes, which is, I mean, we're not talking about 50% of the electorate deciding to vote on election day here, right?

00:16:15.000 We're talking about, you know, just double-digit changes in day of.

00:16:20.000 I mean, imagine if it was 50%.

00:16:21.000 The last tally had Carrie Lake down 17,000 votes. 1.00

00:16:24.000 We're talking about on the margins.

00:16:26.000 Again, I'm going to use this analogy.

00:16:28.000 If you're going to try to have 2 million people cross the George Washington Bridge on a Friday evening into downtown Manhattan, you're going to have a four-hour waiting lab.

00:16:38.000 And that's exactly what they designed on Election Day.

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00:18:15.000 So Jonathan, talk about 2020 and what showed up on game day in Maricopa, not including drop-offs, just in-day Election Day versus what happened in the midterms.

00:18:26.000 Well, 2020, they reported 395,000 in-person voters on Election Day, which they themselves admitted was a lowball figure due to the COVID pandemic.

00:18:39.000 Okay, was that statewide or in Maricopa County?

00:18:43.000 That's Maricopa alone.

00:18:46.000 And so therefore, we're supposed to believe that there was 100, 250,000 in a midterm.

00:18:46.000 Right.

00:18:54.000 I mean, so what is your guess?

00:18:56.000 What is your projection of how many Republicans had the intent to cast a ballot, but did not cast a ballot in Maricopa County?

00:19:05.000 That's a little bit of a speculation, but I would believe it would be every bit of 700,000 probably in Maricopa, given the population demographics, the growth, the expectation of surge and turnout on Election Day, as well as how polarizing this midterm election was going to be.

00:19:24.000 Tyler?

00:19:25.000 Yeah, I mean, 700 sounds, that sounds high.

00:19:27.000 Of what was missed or what was missed?

00:19:30.000 I think 150,000 was probably missed.

00:19:33.000 Yeah, I mean, look, I mean, here's the reality: it's well within the within the belief.

00:19:40.000 If you've seen what's happened, you look at the numbers here and what the projections and estimations were.

00:19:45.000 I mean, the drop-offs were really high, and they ended up bending more towards Democrats than we thought they would.

00:19:50.000 Inexplicably.

00:19:51.000 Inexplicitly, well, it's not inexplicable when you know that they're ballot by ballot ballot harvesting, right?

00:19:56.000 So when you look at this, you go, okay, well, what's a was there a under vote, significant under vote on the Republican side that was unexpected?

00:20:06.000 And the answer to that question is yes.

00:20:09.000 We are expecting higher turnout.

00:20:11.000 You know, the turnout for this election, and correct me if I'm wrong here, Jonathan, but the final numbers, I'm waiting for the final report to come out.

00:20:19.000 The counties are just barely getting back to us on this stuff.

00:20:22.000 Just so you know, this is how long it's taking with the canvases, the canvassing.

00:20:27.000 The turnout, the final turnout was lower as a percentage than 2018.

00:20:33.000 Really?

00:20:33.000 Yeah, lower than accurate.

00:20:35.000 And we're supposed to believe that.

00:20:36.000 So here's the real quick.

00:20:39.000 We had one of the most heated elections ever for governor in Arizona.

00:20:44.000 The Democrats view this as a purple state.

00:20:46.000 Terry Lake is the best candidate that's probably ever run in the state of Arizona and probably the Southwest, probably the West, probably west of the Mississippi, maybe ever in this, yeah, certainly this century in America for governor.

00:20:59.000 And we're expected to believe that turnout was less than for, you know, Kirsten Sally, very vanilla, very vanilla Doug Doocy and his no-name opposition candidate.

00:21:11.000 While the population has grown considerably since 2008.

00:21:13.000 While the population has grown considerably.

00:21:16.000 And so then that begs the question that, which is like Jonathan's asking here, which is like, okay, so you're telling me that all these people, all these registrations, all these people showed up in 2020 and all of a sudden just like vaporized, you know, on both sides.

00:21:30.000 So what is the explanation then that they went to a polling place and they were deterred by the lines?

00:21:34.000 Well, I mean, I think the Democrats weren't sure that this was all going to work, but they knew if they had a chance, this is what they had to do, make it work, right?

00:21:42.000 This is like the people, the only way that they could feasibly win Arizona is voter suppression at the end of the day.

00:21:50.000 And that's exactly what happened on 11-8 was voter suppression.

00:21:53.000 And also just hoping that our team would be lazy.

00:21:58.000 And unfortunately, in some of the rural counties in Arizona, we didn't have as high a turnout.

00:22:02.000 So 210,000 non-Maricopa Trump voters did not vote.

00:22:02.000 Yeah.

00:22:08.000 Crazy.

00:22:09.000 Yavapai, Mojave.

00:22:11.000 They're under exposure.

00:22:12.000 So let's take Pima out, okay?

00:22:13.000 That means 145,000 non-Pima, non-Maricopa.

00:22:18.000 So that's Cochise, Ta Paz, Hila, Yavapai, Mojave.

00:22:23.000 Yavaise.

00:22:24.000 And Yavapai and Mojave are really important, right?

00:22:27.000 Because that's, you know, we're talking all goes to our territory.

00:22:30.000 This is, this is our Prescott Valley.

00:22:34.000 Our version of the Cobb that we talked about last night.

00:22:34.000 Yeah.

00:22:38.000 That's our DeCobb in Arizona.

00:22:40.000 For conservatives, yes.

00:22:41.000 That's where we win 85-15.

00:22:43.000 And we should have had higher turnout.

00:22:46.000 So the question is, is, you know, why do people get lazy?

00:22:50.000 Why do people not vote?

00:22:51.000 And there is an answer beyond the suppression that happened in Maricopa County.

00:22:57.000 There is an answer beyond, like, we just did not, we did not work.

00:23:01.000 Again, you look at the map that we showed last night.

00:23:04.000 Democrat turnout was far better than expected.

00:23:08.000 Right.

00:23:09.000 So, but the point is, this is the conversation I've had with a lot of people.

00:23:13.000 All these things add together, right?

00:23:15.000 So you can't just throw out and say, oh, well, RNC leadership doesn't matter because there's voter fraud. 0.96

00:23:21.000 Well, and you can't just say there's voter fraud.

00:23:23.000 You know, voter fraud doesn't matter because you have to win and ballot harvest, right?

00:23:28.000 It's all of these things, right?

00:23:30.000 All of these things jointed together.

00:23:32.000 You can win.

00:23:33.000 We beat Rusty Bowers.

00:23:35.000 Yeah.

00:23:36.000 Republicans won in Iowa.

00:23:37.000 Like we, I mean, we can do these things when the numbers are right and we're working out.

00:23:43.000 But we have to be so competent at this point that we have to listen to the guys like Jonathan who are saying, look, there's a lot of things to be pulled down from this to learn.

00:23:51.000 Fix.

00:23:53.000 Also, we need good leadership.

00:23:54.000 Also, we need money here.

00:23:56.000 Like all these things matter to win Arizona.

00:23:59.000 And if we don't win Arizona, we lose.

00:24:00.000 Talk about the money because somebody emailed us.

00:24:02.000 They said, Charlie, money doesn't matter.

00:24:03.000 No, but talk about that.

00:24:04.000 Mark Kelly and Katie Hobbs.

00:24:06.000 Money matters.

00:24:07.000 If you combine them together, they had a hundred, no, probably 300 full-time people that were just hawking ballots every day.

00:24:14.000 Probably more than that.

00:24:15.000 It's probably closer to 500.

00:24:16.000 That were full-time.

00:24:17.000 That's their full-time salary job, not volunteers, not part-time, 500 full-time people just in the valley.

00:24:23.000 So colloquially, we heard from independents through the ballot carrying that there were individuals showing up to people's doors with ballots in their hand.

00:24:33.000 And I've actually talked, I think, online with Jonathan about this, ballots in their hand from organizations saying, I have your ballot.

00:24:39.000 You want to vote?

00:24:41.000 Super weird, right?

00:24:42.000 Like, how did somebody random get my ballot?

00:24:45.000 But we know there were groups that had paid bodies that were, their job was to do what we were talking about in the break, which is you're assigned to 500 voters.

00:24:54.000 Make sure those 500 people vote.

00:24:57.000 You're the best 500 people for Mark Kelly.

00:24:59.000 Make sure these 500 people vote.

00:25:01.000 And I actually think no one cared about Katie Hobbs.

00:25:03.000 This was all a Mark Kelly operation.

00:25:06.000 All the national guys worried about.

00:25:07.000 They want to keep the Senate. 0.80

00:25:08.000 There's a lot of interest there.

00:25:11.000 They weren't totally sold that Katie was going to be a winner.

00:25:13.000 Katie just benefited from this entire operation. 0.96

00:25:17.000 That's just the truth.

00:25:19.000 And we have to try to match it.

00:25:21.000 We have to fix things.

00:25:23.000 But obviously, now that we have the circumstances we have in Arizona, it's going to be harder to fix things.

00:25:28.000 But we have money matters, Charlie, because you have to have the money to hire the bodies.

00:25:28.000 Yeah.

00:25:33.000 Now, if you're bringing in money here just to blow it on consultants, yeah, of course, money doesn't matter.

00:25:37.000 Yeah.

00:25:37.000 And so two things on that.

00:25:38.000 And I want to get Jonathan's take.

00:25:41.000 I said this at the end.

00:25:42.000 I said, man, I wish Trump would have done a rally in Lake Havasu or in Prescott before the end.

00:25:47.000 I think that would have helped.

00:25:48.000 That would have helped numbers, especially in Yavapai, like a day before the election.

00:25:52.000 Sure.

00:25:53.000 Trump did not do that.

00:25:54.000 Number two.

00:25:55.000 Now, looking back, 2020, Vision's 2020, obviously that would have helped more than coming late to Mesa.

00:26:02.000 Yeah, I mean, but there were different problems in different places, right?

00:26:05.000 So for Kerry, we assumed huge rural turnout and we got good rural turnout.

00:26:11.000 We didn't get the Richter scale that we would have thought.

00:26:14.000 And if Trump could have brought another 20,000 people out in Yavapai and southern Cochise County or even Pima, Pima, we got Kerry underperformed Trump by 10 points in Pima.

00:26:14.000 We just didn't.

00:26:26.000 Some of that's the funny business of Pima.

00:26:27.000 10 points?

00:26:28.000 Yeah.

00:26:29.000 Some of it was the funny business of Pima.

00:26:30.000 Okay.

00:26:32.000 And again, I'm not saying that that's, you know, but it's like they had higher turnout than expected in Pima County for 2020, right?

00:26:40.000 For Democrats.

00:26:40.000 And guess what?

00:26:41.000 And guess who's the last guy running elections down in Pima County?

00:26:43.000 Adrian Fontos.

00:26:44.000 Yeah, there you go.

00:26:44.000 Adrian Fontaine.

00:26:45.000 So Jonathan, how do we go about fixing this for 2024?

00:26:50.000 If Katie Hobbs becomes governor, which looks like she will, she's going to have a Democrat Attorney General and a Democrat Secretary of State. 1.00

00:26:56.000 We're just going to go through this problem again, aren't we?

00:26:59.000 Most likely.

00:27:00.000 And the problem that we've run into is it wasn't just an infrastructural problem as far as capacity.

00:27:08.000 It was also a targeted kind of Pareto principle approach to suppressing key demographic areas where Republicans turn out.

00:27:19.000 And so unless Republicans are committed to doing the most vast scale ballot harvesting operation in human history, which I don't think they're going to be able to outdo the Democrats in that because they already have that, then our resolution is to fix this.

00:27:36.000 Because if you look at where the machines malfunction, Charlie, we know that they happened across 70 locations.

00:27:44.000 And the narrative was, you know, there were 223 sites.

00:27:48.000 It only happened in 30% of locations.

00:27:50.000 But if my intent is to suppress a turnout for a certain demographic, I'm going to target certain areas.

00:27:57.000 And if you look at those 70, 64 of those locations were considered highly partisan, either heavily DEM or heavily R locations.

00:28:08.000 And in 59 of those 64, they were heavy R areas.

00:28:13.000 The average spread, you mentioned this about the rural areas.

00:28:17.000 The average spread where these malfunctions happened across all, both heavy R and heavy D, was 38 and a half points, Charlie.

00:28:25.000 So if I was going to suppress, I would curb margins where Kerry was expected to not underperform by 10 points, a Donald Trump, because she is probably of any GOP candidate that we have, the most Trump loyal as far as the messaging, as far as election integrity, as far as fixing the border.

00:28:46.000 She is the personification of his message.

00:28:50.000 So it wouldn't just make sense to lose 10 points to Donald Trump unless there was a targeted reasoning.

00:28:57.000 And we have data that shows that 93.7% of malfunctions happening one side of the aisle is not something that happens organic.

00:29:08.000 No.

00:29:08.000 It is absolutely market manipulation.

00:29:12.000 And they'll do it again if they're allowed to do it again.

00:29:15.000 And this is why the conversation has to be, it has to turn to, we've got to eliminate these people from office in order to change it.

00:29:22.000 So you either recall Stephen Richer, recall three board of supervisors, or hopefully you get a robust lawsuit that requires more voting centers.

00:29:31.000 The lawsuits right now, the remedy could be as big.

00:29:35.000 I have very little doubt that, I have very little hope, I should say, that they're going to call for a new election.

00:29:41.000 I want that.

00:29:43.000 I think the people deserve that based off of what we're talking about here.

00:29:47.000 But the remedy could be forcing or an agreeing to that they will do those fixes.

00:29:52.000 I just think these people are so evil there down there and it's so intentional.

00:29:55.000 Like if they intended to shut down machines, of course, do you think they're going to agree to a remedy that's why?

00:30:00.000 So for 2024, I just want to say this again.

00:30:03.000 The White House will go to the Democrats in 2024 if you cannot win Scottsdale, Chandler, Awatuke, and North Phoenix, right, Tyler?

00:30:14.000 How many times have you said this?

00:30:15.000 There is no pass to the White House.

00:30:17.000 So therefore, what is the solution?

00:30:19.000 Recall Bill Gates and three supervisors and or Stephen Richer.

00:30:23.000 Well, this is why like Trump's people or whoever wants to run for president, anyone that wants to run for the RNC, you should have an office here already being like, all right, how do we win this place?

00:30:33.000 They're not even thinking of it.

00:30:34.000 It's not even a distant concern for them.

00:30:37.000 They're like, oh, yeah, we'll just kind of win in Arizona.

00:30:39.000 I'm telling you, you do not have the vote centers for your voters to win you the White House.

00:30:44.000 We will tell you how to win.

00:30:45.000 You just got it.

00:30:46.000 But you've got to be part of the solution.

00:30:47.000 Let's talk about millions because there are two solutions, but they're going to be 20 million bucks each.

00:30:54.000 So let's talk about fixing this for 2024.

00:30:57.000 I don't see several rooms or remedies.

00:31:02.000 So there's three options in my calculus, Jonathan.

00:31:04.000 Either we recall Stephen Richer and or Bill Gates, and Maricopa County fixes it from the Board of Supervisors level or the recorder level.

00:31:11.000 That's going to be expensive and hard.

00:31:13.000 A lawsuit comes and a remedy by a judge basically requires more voting centers for a civil rights disenfranchisement for 2024.

00:31:20.000 That's a long shot and difficult.

00:31:21.000 And given Republicans an ability to be able to write lawsuits that win, that's going to be tough.

00:31:26.000 Or number three, Jonathan, this is provocative.

00:31:29.000 Why don't we just embrace in-person early voting and chase ballots?

00:31:33.000 Jonathan, just looking at the math, there really is no other way.

00:31:36.000 Am I looking at this right?

00:31:37.000 Yeah, you have to, I guess, get used to playing in the arena that you've kind of been forced into, Charlie.

00:31:45.000 And I know that's kind of, you know, difficult for Republicans to accept because they have such trust issues and so many chains of custody and mail ballots.

00:31:58.000 But if you're forced into it, you have to make the most of what tools you have to work with.

00:32:03.000 But between now and then, something that I think is underappreciated and I want to make mention of, don't underestimate the power of adjudicating things in the court of public opinion.

00:32:15.000 And one thing that the Democrats are very good at doing is controlling the narrative, controlling the messaging, and controlling whether somebody's guilty or innocent, even before it may be adjudicated in the courts.

00:32:29.000 And whether you love him or hate him, the fact that Elon Musk now owns Twitter, don't underestimate the impact that we can have, especially conservatives, in waking up as many people to becoming aware of what we really are up against,

00:32:46.000 so that if we're forced into these certain bottlenecks that we have to deal with, then more people will be aware as we're having to deal with them, which can't be understated in valued.

00:33:00.000 Yeah, I think that's smart.

00:33:01.000 Jonathan, how do people follow you and support you?

00:33:03.000 You were generous with your time.

00:33:05.000 You've done some great research.

00:33:06.000 How can people support you?

00:33:08.000 Just pay attention.

00:33:10.000 I'm on Twitter at DecentFlyJC.

00:33:14.000 I have Instagram, JKL2020, but just pay attention, support our conservative America first candidates and keep your eyes and ears open and do whatever you have the ability to do, do to the best of your ability to support our cause.

00:33:33.000 Terrific.

00:33:33.000 Thank you so much, Jonathan.

00:33:34.000 I appreciate it.

00:33:35.000 Thank you, Charlie.

00:33:36.000 And by the way, so Jonathan is just a finance guy, financial analyst who broke down Maricopa's own modeling and called BS on it.

00:33:44.000 Okay, so you want to win the White House in 2024?

00:33:47.000 There's only three sites.

00:33:48.000 There's only three states that matter.

00:33:50.000 Donald Trump, if he's the nominee, Ron DeSantis, the nominee, whoever's the nominee, they will win Ohio.

00:33:55.000 They will win Iowa.

00:33:56.000 They will win Wisconsin.

00:33:58.000 I'm sorry.

00:33:59.000 They will win North Carolina.

00:34:00.000 They will win Florida, period. 0.77

00:34:01.000 Florida's a deep red state.

00:34:02.000 Ohio's a red state.

00:34:03.000 Iowa's a red state.

00:34:05.000 And North Carolina is actually trending favorably.

00:34:08.000 There's three states, three that you got to win the White House.

00:34:12.000 That's it.

00:34:13.000 Wisconsin, Georgia, and Arizona.

00:34:16.000 You're just going to hear us repeat this nonstop, and I'm going to ask questions of RNC leadership.

00:34:22.000 What are you doing today to fix the voting rolls, to fix the signature verification, to expand election day voting in Buckhead, Alpharetta, in Augusta, in Kenosha, in Racine, in Eau Claire, in Waukesha?

00:34:37.000 What are you doing in Arizona to make it so that we can be competitive in Scottsdale, in Mesa, in Awatuke, in Chandler?

00:34:44.000 If you don't know who these cities are, you shouldn't be running the RNC.

00:34:47.000 That's it.

00:34:48.000 It's very simple.

00:34:50.000 There are three states and eight to nine cities that will determine the future of the greatest nation ever to exist in the history of the world.

00:35:00.000 We have to zero in on this.

00:35:02.000 Enough talk about Pennsylvania or Colorado.

00:35:07.000 I love all those states.

00:35:08.000 We have to, the road of the White House is right in front of us.

00:35:12.000 And so in Arizona in particular, what is the plan so that we do not have three-hour waiting lines again in 2024?

00:35:22.000 What's the plan?

00:35:23.000 Current RNC leadership, I don't think, has a plan.

00:35:25.000 I'll be very honest.

00:35:27.000 Okay, so you have three options.

00:35:29.000 Embrace ballot chasing and early voting.

00:35:31.000 Have a robust lawsuit where a judge will demand precinct-based voting or recall Stephen Richer and Bill Gates.

00:35:38.000 Okay, that's going to cost $15 to $20 million and can be looked at as too political and is highly risky because you could get a Democrat in its spot.

00:35:46.000 I still probably support it, but that's risky.

00:35:48.000 Those are your three options.

00:35:50.000 That's it.

00:35:50.000 Or you could do fourth option and do what some of our listeners do: give up, stop voting, and just run to the hills.

00:35:56.000 And in the words of someone just here, Charlie, I'm totally bearish on America.

00:36:00.000 The country is over.

00:36:01.000 Okay, well, that's your perspective.

00:36:02.000 I don't have time for that.

00:36:03.000 What is the plan to win Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin?

00:36:09.000 Thanks so much for listening, everybody.

00:36:10.000 Email me your thoughts as always, freedom at charliekirk.com.

00:36:13.000 Thank you so much for listening.

00:36:15.000 God bless.

00:36:19.000 For more on many of these stories and news you can trust, go to CharlieKirk.com.

The Charlie Kirk Show - December 08, 2022

28 Days Later: Maricopa Edition with Jonathan Cagle and Tyler Bowyer

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