Jonathon Kagle, a financial analyst, helps us walk through all the different dynamics, what happened on Election Day in Arizona, and how we can fix it. Tyler Boyer, who is one of the 168 on the Republican National Committee (RNC) from the great state of Arizona, joins us to talk about what happened and why it happened.
00:00:06.000What actually happened on Election Day?
00:00:08.000Tyler Boyer joins us and Jonathan Kagle, a financial analyst, helps us walk through all the different dynamics, what happened on Election Day.
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00:01:51.000Okay, so Jonathan, you have a data guy, you're a financial analyst, and you've gone through some of the data from this last election.
00:01:58.000What have you found when it pertains to the Arizona election?
00:02:02.000I would say probably five or six different shows, I'd imagine, but the mathematics really just don't add up.
00:02:10.000And in the time environment that we live in, where the language is being sacrificed or conceded every day, it's important to stay in tune to mathematics because math is the one language that's unchanging.
00:02:24.000And so if you can make the numbers match up or not match up, it's hard to argue against it.
00:02:59.000And so when you're going through into an election that's very polarizing and you're expecting a surge in turnout, it's very good to have a baseline going in in the event that any kind of shenanigans happen.
00:03:11.000So what I did is I looked at the number of mail-in and early ballots they had received, which statewide was 1.4 million, and 976,000 of those were from Maricopa County as well.
00:03:24.000I also knew the population demographics of Maricopa tends to be roughly 62% of Arizona's total state population, being one of the largest counties in the country.
00:03:34.000So what I wanted to know is: okay, compared to 2020, what are they expecting?
00:03:41.000It said that they had 395,000 in-person on Election Day that they accommodated, using only 175 in-person polling places.
00:03:55.000And they referenced this in their election plans and in the preparation between the primaries and the general election getting ready to be able to accommodate all these people.
00:04:06.000So what they did is in 2020, they had 175 polling locations.
00:04:12.000They announced that they were expecting a surge in double that number.
00:04:16.000So 395 times two, you would expect it to be somewhere in the neighborhood of 750 to 800,000 people.
00:04:26.000But also at the same time, they were expecting a relatively similar drop in early voting and voting by mail.
00:04:33.000And they gave the COVID pandemic resolution as the main reason.
00:04:37.000So I knew, okay, based on 2016, 2018, and 2020, the demographics dictate that we're going to have probably between 2.4, 2.7 million voters on Election Day, depending on turnout.
00:04:51.000And I'm sure you guys would agree, this was one of the more polarizing midterm elections in recent memory.
00:04:58.000And knowing that we had 1.4 going in, it was a good idea to anticipate another 900 to a million at least on Election Day.
00:05:09.000And then when we look at all the background data leading up, and we looked at their own models that they used, Stephen, Richard, and Maricopa are wholly responsible.
00:05:20.000They have sole discretion to set up Election Day infrastructure.
00:05:26.000They made the mistake of announcing it to the public, I guess, as a show of good faith, but it allowed people to kind of crunch the numbers and put two and two together.
00:05:36.000And so I bothered to do that, knowing what baseline had going in.
00:05:40.000And just based on their own numbers, I calculated that they were well short of the number that they were expecting to receive in person on election day by significant magnitude.
00:05:52.000Tyler, I want to give Jonathan a lot of credit too because we've been following some of the points he's been making on Twitter for a long time.
00:05:58.000And he's one of the good guys that are on Twitter talking about this.
00:06:02.000Because for a lot of normal people kind of jumping into this world for the first time in Maricopa County.
00:06:09.000And again, Maricopa County is really good to look at because this is similarly of what's happening to places that we don't have eyes, like Philadelphia, and places that we do have eyes, like yesterday in Fulton County.
00:06:20.000So the big question is, well, how do all these things matter?
00:06:25.000And in Georgia, we saw there was longer wait times and the wee hours of the late earlies that we were coming through, which tended to benefit Republicans.
00:06:38.000We had long lines that were happening in Maricopa County.
00:06:42.000We had long lines that were reported across Pennsylvania and oddly Republican areas.
00:06:47.000So the point that I think he's brought up on some of these messages that he's put out and the time, the numbers that he's brought up is the comparison of, okay, does it matter that cutting down the number of polling places, does the cutting down the number of polling places actually have a negative impact on the ability for voters to vote?
00:07:10.000And the answer to that question is obviously overwhelmingly yes.
00:07:15.000And this is, and so as time goes on, so the funny part is, is that you have Democrats and you have, you know, Republicans and or Democrats in Republican clothing here, like Stephen Richard saying, oh, no, no, no, no, we know we're so smart.
00:07:43.000And everybody like us, we're saying, no, no, no, no, cutting down from 500 something polling places that we had just a few years ago to now when you had 500.
00:07:52.000I believe the last time we had that many was in 2016.
00:08:02.000I could be wrong, but this was, but this is the whole point.
00:08:06.000I don't have it right in front of me right now, the exact numbers.
00:08:09.000But remember, 2016 was when Helen Purcell cut down the primary number of polling places to 200 and 100 and some odd polling places.
00:08:18.000And that's when everyone like lambasted her.
00:08:20.000So I believe what, if I remember, recollect correctly, she went back and she's like, don't worry, we're going to have all our precinct-based polling places open in 2016.
00:08:28.000And then it was after that, Adrian Fontes got elected in 18, 20, 22 now, we have this vote center model, which is now, you know, the Helen Purcell screw-up model, which is 200, only 200 polling places.
00:08:40.000So you have 223 polling places across the valley to facilitate anywhere which should have been between 275,000 and 400,000 same-day voters.
00:08:50.000They were projecting that it could be upwards of 400,000, Charlie.
00:08:57.000And that would have been correct if they could have facilitated Anthem, for example, three-hour waiting line.
00:09:06.000So the point that Jonathan's making in a lot of his tweets, which is absolutely correct, and it's everything that we, you kind of know, but you're not saying out loud or texting all the dots, which is if the combination of cutting down the polling places to 223, right, essentially, from where it used to be, to the combination of also all these machines mysteriously going down in the morning in the specific hours that we know the traffic and the volume is going to be high.
00:09:33.000There's basically what he's saying without directly saying, is if I think maybe he has directly said this, is if you do this, right, this is what the result will be.
00:09:48.000Meaning, if you shut this down, there's no way that you're ever going to make up those votes.
00:09:52.000Number one, you're going to scare people away from the polling places later in the day.
00:09:55.000Number two, you're going to turn people away.
00:09:57.000Number three, you're going to have so many problems that you're not going to be able to basically take in that many votes, right?
00:10:04.000So the total number of votes that were actually cast are way underneath what the projection would be.
00:10:12.000The end of the year is right around the corner, and it's time for you to consider a change in your investment plan.
00:10:16.000This is Charlie Kirk, and I strongly recommend you go right now and see my friends at PAX to review your investments.
00:10:23.000They are the one firm I know that focuses on biblical, responsible investing and does not force you to invest in companies that literally attack Christian values.
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00:11:13.000So Jonathan, is it fair to say that Maricopa County intentionally did not have the infrastructure to be able to facilitate what Carrie Lake needed on election day?
00:11:25.000It would be 100% accurate to say that or fair to say because if they anticipate $750,000 or $800,000, but their max infrastructure can only accommodate $320,000 or even $350,000, you have a huge deficit that you can accommodate already going in.
00:11:45.000So I suppose the question is, you know, how do we go about fixing this?
00:11:53.000But before we go into that, I just want to kind of remind our listeners.
00:11:55.000So Arizona does voting in a very bizarre way.
00:11:59.000223 voting centers in Maricopa County.
00:12:02.000Can you walk us through your math again?
00:12:05.000Because Tyler and I, when we did our math, we were anticipating.
00:12:09.000This is why, this is why on the live stream, we were so committed to saying Kerry's going to win because we thought on election day, okay, 300 to 330,000 people were going to show up on election day.
00:12:31.000People did ballot drop-offs, which did not perform very well for us, as well as we wanted them to.
00:12:37.000Yeah, they were clearly harvesting last-minute ballot.
00:12:40.000Yeah, they were clearly illegally harvesting them.
00:12:42.000And that was just shocking because we said, why is it that these precincts that should be voting for Kerry Lake are not voting for Kerry Lake with ballot drop-offs?
00:12:54.000So therefore, you know, the number, our math wasn't wrong in our projections, our predictions, but the only missing widget, if you will, Jonathan, is that there were people that had the intent to vote and they ended up not voting.
00:13:10.000So if you look at their 2022 election plan document where they explain their model, they give basically a number of total polling sites of 220.
00:13:21.000They give 25 voting booths per site and they give the total time it takes for one person to basically cast their vote, which includes a three-minute check time and an 11-minute cast of ballot time.
00:13:34.000So just by reverse engineering that, we can know how many voters per hour that each booth can take on.
00:13:43.000So if it takes one person 14 minutes and you have 60 minutes in one hour, you know that there are only 4.28 voters per booth per hour.
00:13:55.000We know there's 13 hours in election day.
00:14:05.000If we do 220 centers with 25 booths each, we know that's 5,500 total voting booths in Maricopa County.
00:14:15.000You do the math on that, how many can actually, under normal, optimal conditions, and this was their highest peak.
00:14:22.000So they were assuming the highest traffic possible.
00:14:25.000The max total that they could accommodate in Maricopa was 306,020.
00:14:31.000When you're expecting X and you set your infrastructure only to be able to accommodate 38% of X without even chasing down a single voter to determine whether they've been disenfranchised, you've infrastructurally disenfranchised them before a single ballot is cast.
00:14:51.000Yeah, it's structural disenfranchisement is what it is.
00:15:04.000Knowing what we knew about Stephen Richer and Bill Gates, the Republican Party should have had an army of lawyers here months, preemptively, years in advance that were keeping an eye on every communication.
00:15:16.000We should have been knowing everywhere these people went, every meeting that they had.
00:15:20.000And identifiably through that process, we could have, I mean, we did foresee this structural.
00:15:27.000You and I both tweeted about it and spoke about it multiple times and weeks in advance.
00:15:31.000October 27th, I sent out a tweet that you helped write, which was, Stephen Richer, you're not ready for the traffic jam that's going to come.
00:15:45.000They're going to run out of, they're going to run out of ink or toner issues, which we were right.
00:15:50.000Long lines and chain of custody issues.
00:15:56.000And all those things played out exactly as we said.
00:15:59.000Because again, this is just as you're saying, Jonathan, this is a structural build out here.
00:16:05.000And they are not equipped to even handle even the most minute of changes, which is, I mean, we're not talking about 50% of the electorate deciding to vote on election day here, right?
00:16:15.000We're talking about, you know, just double-digit changes in day of.
00:16:28.000If you're going to try to have 2 million people cross the George Washington Bridge on a Friday evening into downtown Manhattan, you're going to have a four-hour waiting lab.
00:16:38.000And that's exactly what they designed on Election Day.
00:18:15.000So Jonathan, talk about 2020 and what showed up on game day in Maricopa, not including drop-offs, just in-day Election Day versus what happened in the midterms.
00:18:26.000Well, 2020, they reported 395,000 in-person voters on Election Day, which they themselves admitted was a lowball figure due to the COVID pandemic.
00:18:39.000Okay, was that statewide or in Maricopa County?
00:18:56.000What is your projection of how many Republicans had the intent to cast a ballot, but did not cast a ballot in Maricopa County?
00:19:05.000That's a little bit of a speculation, but I would believe it would be every bit of 700,000 probably in Maricopa, given the population demographics, the growth, the expectation of surge and turnout on Election Day, as well as how polarizing this midterm election was going to be.
00:19:51.000Inexplicitly, well, it's not inexplicable when you know that they're ballot by ballot ballot harvesting, right?
00:19:56.000So when you look at this, you go, okay, well, what's a was there a under vote, significant under vote on the Republican side that was unexpected?
00:20:06.000And the answer to that question is yes.
00:20:11.000You know, the turnout for this election, and correct me if I'm wrong here, Jonathan, but the final numbers, I'm waiting for the final report to come out.
00:20:19.000The counties are just barely getting back to us on this stuff.
00:20:22.000Just so you know, this is how long it's taking with the canvases, the canvassing.
00:20:27.000The turnout, the final turnout was lower as a percentage than 2018.
00:20:39.000We had one of the most heated elections ever for governor in Arizona.
00:20:44.000The Democrats view this as a purple state.
00:20:46.000Terry Lake is the best candidate that's probably ever run in the state of Arizona and probably the Southwest, probably the West, probably west of the Mississippi, maybe ever in this, yeah, certainly this century in America for governor.
00:20:59.000And we're expected to believe that turnout was less than for, you know, Kirsten Sally, very vanilla, very vanilla Doug Doocy and his no-name opposition candidate.
00:21:11.000While the population has grown considerably since 2008.
00:21:13.000While the population has grown considerably.
00:21:16.000And so then that begs the question that, which is like Jonathan's asking here, which is like, okay, so you're telling me that all these people, all these registrations, all these people showed up in 2020 and all of a sudden just like vaporized, you know, on both sides.
00:21:30.000So what is the explanation then that they went to a polling place and they were deterred by the lines?
00:21:34.000Well, I mean, I think the Democrats weren't sure that this was all going to work, but they knew if they had a chance, this is what they had to do, make it work, right?
00:21:42.000This is like the people, the only way that they could feasibly win Arizona is voter suppression at the end of the day.
00:21:50.000And that's exactly what happened on 11-8 was voter suppression.
00:21:53.000And also just hoping that our team would be lazy.
00:21:58.000And unfortunately, in some of the rural counties in Arizona, we didn't have as high a turnout.
00:22:02.000So 210,000 non-Maricopa Trump voters did not vote.
00:23:37.000Like we, I mean, we can do these things when the numbers are right and we're working out.
00:23:43.000But we have to be so competent at this point that we have to listen to the guys like Jonathan who are saying, look, there's a lot of things to be pulled down from this to learn.
00:24:17.000That's their full-time salary job, not volunteers, not part-time, 500 full-time people just in the valley.
00:24:23.000So colloquially, we heard from independents through the ballot carrying that there were individuals showing up to people's doors with ballots in their hand.
00:24:33.000And I've actually talked, I think, online with Jonathan about this, ballots in their hand from organizations saying, I have your ballot.
00:24:42.000Like, how did somebody random get my ballot?
00:24:45.000But we know there were groups that had paid bodies that were, their job was to do what we were talking about in the break, which is you're assigned to 500 voters.
00:25:55.000Now, looking back, 2020, Vision's 2020, obviously that would have helped more than coming late to Mesa.
00:26:02.000Yeah, I mean, but there were different problems in different places, right?
00:26:05.000So for Kerry, we assumed huge rural turnout and we got good rural turnout.
00:26:11.000We didn't get the Richter scale that we would have thought.
00:26:14.000And if Trump could have brought another 20,000 people out in Yavapai and southern Cochise County or even Pima, Pima, we got Kerry underperformed Trump by 10 points in Pima.
00:26:45.000So Jonathan, how do we go about fixing this for 2024?
00:26:50.000If Katie Hobbs becomes governor, which looks like she will, she's going to have a Democrat Attorney General and a Democrat Secretary of State.
00:26:56.000We're just going to go through this problem again, aren't we?
00:27:00.000And the problem that we've run into is it wasn't just an infrastructural problem as far as capacity.
00:27:08.000It was also a targeted kind of Pareto principle approach to suppressing key demographic areas where Republicans turn out.
00:27:19.000And so unless Republicans are committed to doing the most vast scale ballot harvesting operation in human history, which I don't think they're going to be able to outdo the Democrats in that because they already have that, then our resolution is to fix this.
00:27:36.000Because if you look at where the machines malfunction, Charlie, we know that they happened across 70 locations.
00:27:44.000And the narrative was, you know, there were 223 sites.
00:27:50.000But if my intent is to suppress a turnout for a certain demographic, I'm going to target certain areas.
00:27:57.000And if you look at those 70, 64 of those locations were considered highly partisan, either heavily DEM or heavily R locations.
00:28:08.000And in 59 of those 64, they were heavy R areas.
00:28:13.000The average spread, you mentioned this about the rural areas.
00:28:17.000The average spread where these malfunctions happened across all, both heavy R and heavy D, was 38 and a half points, Charlie.
00:28:25.000So if I was going to suppress, I would curb margins where Kerry was expected to not underperform by 10 points, a Donald Trump, because she is probably of any GOP candidate that we have, the most Trump loyal as far as the messaging, as far as election integrity, as far as fixing the border.
00:28:46.000She is the personification of his message.
00:28:50.000So it wouldn't just make sense to lose 10 points to Donald Trump unless there was a targeted reasoning.
00:28:57.000And we have data that shows that 93.7% of malfunctions happening one side of the aisle is not something that happens organic.
00:29:12.000And they'll do it again if they're allowed to do it again.
00:29:15.000And this is why the conversation has to be, it has to turn to, we've got to eliminate these people from office in order to change it.
00:29:22.000So you either recall Stephen Richer, recall three board of supervisors, or hopefully you get a robust lawsuit that requires more voting centers.
00:29:31.000The lawsuits right now, the remedy could be as big.
00:29:35.000I have very little doubt that, I have very little hope, I should say, that they're going to call for a new election.
00:30:19.000Recall Bill Gates and three supervisors and or Stephen Richer.
00:30:23.000Well, this is why like Trump's people or whoever wants to run for president, anyone that wants to run for the RNC, you should have an office here already being like, all right, how do we win this place?
00:31:37.000Yeah, you have to, I guess, get used to playing in the arena that you've kind of been forced into, Charlie.
00:31:45.000And I know that's kind of, you know, difficult for Republicans to accept because they have such trust issues and so many chains of custody and mail ballots.
00:31:58.000But if you're forced into it, you have to make the most of what tools you have to work with.
00:32:03.000But between now and then, something that I think is underappreciated and I want to make mention of, don't underestimate the power of adjudicating things in the court of public opinion.
00:32:15.000And one thing that the Democrats are very good at doing is controlling the narrative, controlling the messaging, and controlling whether somebody's guilty or innocent, even before it may be adjudicated in the courts.
00:32:29.000And whether you love him or hate him, the fact that Elon Musk now owns Twitter, don't underestimate the impact that we can have, especially conservatives, in waking up as many people to becoming aware of what we really are up against,
00:32:46.000so that if we're forced into these certain bottlenecks that we have to deal with, then more people will be aware as we're having to deal with them, which can't be understated in valued.
00:33:14.000I have Instagram, JKL2020, but just pay attention, support our conservative America first candidates and keep your eyes and ears open and do whatever you have the ability to do, do to the best of your ability to support our cause.
00:34:16.000You're just going to hear us repeat this nonstop, and I'm going to ask questions of RNC leadership.
00:34:22.000What are you doing today to fix the voting rolls, to fix the signature verification, to expand election day voting in Buckhead, Alpharetta, in Augusta, in Kenosha, in Racine, in Eau Claire, in Waukesha?
00:34:37.000What are you doing in Arizona to make it so that we can be competitive in Scottsdale, in Mesa, in Awatuke, in Chandler?
00:34:44.000If you don't know who these cities are, you shouldn't be running the RNC.
00:34:50.000There are three states and eight to nine cities that will determine the future of the greatest nation ever to exist in the history of the world.
00:35:29.000Embrace ballot chasing and early voting.
00:35:31.000Have a robust lawsuit where a judge will demand precinct-based voting or recall Stephen Richer and Bill Gates.
00:35:38.000Okay, that's going to cost $15 to $20 million and can be looked at as too political and is highly risky because you could get a Democrat in its spot.
00:35:46.000I still probably support it, but that's risky.