00:00:07.000Well, you guys are going to enjoy this episode.
00:00:10.000Get involved with Turning Point Action, tpaction.com for all things midterms, for all things education, the education of your kids and grandkids.
00:00:56.000We will not embrace the ideas that have destroyed countries, destroyed lives, and we are going to fight for freedom on campuses across the country.
00:01:24.000In fact, we are about, let me do the math, 45 to 50 days away in certain states from ballots going out, 45 to 50 days out.
00:01:35.000We are being outspent significantly in the key states.
00:01:42.000We have some candidates that are fighting like heck, but the Democrats are coming in with kleptocratic Silicon Valley money that is just blowing expectations out of the water.
00:01:54.000So what we're going to do right out of the gate here as we're back from Labor Day, we're going to go around the horn.
00:02:00.000What states and races should we be focused on?
00:02:03.000So first, of course, let's frame this.
00:02:04.000The House of Representatives, totally up for grabs.
00:02:06.000Every single person has to rerun for election in the House of Representatives every two years.
00:02:11.000All we have to do is win the House of Representatives by one vote.
00:02:14.000Now, I know some of you say, Charlie, we haven't done enough to fix our elections.
00:02:19.000That's not what this conversation is going to be about, though.
00:02:21.000This conversation is going to be about what candidates, what races are we looking at so we can overwhelm the system because we talk about election integrity a lot on this program.
00:03:24.000In North Carolina, Ted Budd looks to be up a point or two.
00:03:26.000The latest poll shows him down to this snake by the name of Beasley, a former Chief Justice of North Carolina's Supreme Court's Senate seat, North Carolina Supreme Court, will face off against GOP Representative Ted Budd, who represents North Carolina's 13th district.
00:04:31.000And Trafalgar and Emerson both have Raphael Warnock up.
00:04:35.000He is trending beautifully in the state of Georgia.
00:04:38.000Now, I'm not going to dive too deep into this, but I'm telling you, as football season starts to come front and center in Georgia, Herschel Walker is going to surge.
00:04:46.000You can make fun of that all you want, media matters.
00:04:49.000You have never spent time in rural Georgia if you think that's a joke.
00:04:52.000The better Georgia football does, the better Herschel Walker looks.
00:04:56.000That's not going to be the only reason why people vote for it, but it does not hurt in a year where Georgia is the defending national champion to have the Heisman Trophy winning darling of the University of Georgia Bulldogs running for the United States Senate.
00:06:29.000One of our favorite candidates in the country, Doug Mastriano.
00:06:33.000Mastriano is doing, he's running a great race.
00:06:36.000He's up against Shapiro, who is awful.
00:06:39.000Doug Mastriano is starting to see momentum on the ground and is doing much better.
00:06:44.000And then in the Senate race, I know a lot of people here are not fans of Dr. Oz.
00:06:49.000We're actually going to have Dr. Oz on the program.
00:06:51.000We're going to ask him very pointed questions.
00:06:54.000I disagree with Dr. Oz on certain things, but I'll tell you this.
00:06:57.000Dr. Oz looks better and better every single day the more I see the guy that is, I don't know, sweatshirt Shrek walking around Pennsylvania.
00:07:11.000This guy, John Fetterman, is one of the most dangerous candidates in the entire country.
00:07:18.000He's dangerous because he camouflages himself.
00:07:20.000He pretends like he's some sort of working man moderate, wears gym shorts and a sweatshirt.
00:07:26.000Now, I'm not here to trivialize somebody's health, but John Fetterman is not currently in a state of being to serve in the United States Senate, period.
00:07:37.000John Fetterman makes Joe Biden look sentient.
00:07:53.000That's a referendum on Fetterman because that guy, if he gets in the U.S. Senate, he will be a younger, taller, more radical Bernie Sanders.
00:08:01.000As someone put it, it's Bernie Sanders on stilts.
00:09:27.000Now, anyone who's spent time in Wisconsin politics knows the following: Wisconsin is probably the most difficult state to poll outside of Alaska.
00:10:05.000We are going around the horn of the top races and candidates that need your support and that need our focus.
00:10:12.000We are 63 days out from a reckoning, everybody.
00:10:18.000Look, we talk about current events a lot on this show, but there's other things that are in life that are bigger than current events, bigger things.
00:10:23.000We try to do some shows every so often on these things.
00:10:26.000But look, what am I talking about when I say that?
00:10:30.000Right and wrong, prayer and the Bible, or heaven and hell.
00:10:33.000So, look, the great C.S. Lewis, who's one of the most amazing minds ever to exist, was a master at addressing these questions.
00:10:42.000And that is why Hillsdale College, the great college, the only college, in my opinion, wants you to learn more about him and his writings in their newest free online course, C.S. Lewis on Christianity.
00:10:54.000And it all starts with taking a short quiz to find out how much you already know about Lewis.
00:10:59.000He wrote more than the Narnia series, by the way.
00:12:07.000We share maybe we'll share some other ones, maybe Richard Barris, big data poll, because we believe that there are suppression polls out there.
00:12:16.000Remember the polls that show Donald Trump's going to lose Florida by four points?
00:12:23.000So we're very careful what polls we show.
00:12:25.000So when we say a poll on this program, it's from a pollster that we trust, with a methodology that's been proven, with a track record that has been indicative previously of an outcome that can be accurate.
00:13:22.000And they are pouring money into Wisconsin against him.
00:13:26.000So if you live in Wisconsin, become a precinct committee man, knock on some doors for him.
00:13:31.000I do believe Ron Johnson will be successful.
00:13:33.000If you go read the 2010 profile on Ron Johnson, it says Johnson mounted a late comeback in the fall after months of, this is back in 2010, 12 years ago, insisting the race was closer than it appeared.
00:13:45.000He led a public poll for the first time in October.
00:13:47.000Feingold was down one point in the final Marquette law school poll.
00:13:52.000So consider the gold standard of polling in the state, which is true.
00:13:54.000The Marquette Law School poll right before the election is usually predictive.
00:13:59.000But Ron Johnson seemed like he was going to lose the entire time in surge to victory.
00:15:16.000He's going to run up the score in Henderson, which is a heavy LDS population.
00:15:20.000If he can just splice, if he can lose less in Clark County, in some of the precincts around kind of the Summerlin area, which has turned to be a little liberal, but really deep down, should be conservative Republican, Adam Laxalt could be the next senator from Nevada.
00:15:34.000Now, I will say this carefully because we're on YouTube.
00:15:37.000If you want to talk about a state that has shenanigans, ballot harvesting, culinary union corruption, just look at the state that Harry Reid built.
00:15:46.000Now, I was flying out of Vegas recently, and I think they renamed the entire airport the Harry Reed Airport.
00:16:47.000If he beats Cortez Mastro, that is a flip.
00:16:50.000So if we even have one or two of these flips, just one or two of these flips, Laxalt, Masters, Herschel, and then we hold Ohio and we hold Wisconsin, the Senate can be ours.
00:17:13.000Look, let me tell you: the worldwide food crisis is making headlines again.
00:17:17.000Just recently, Business Insider said we're in a global food crisis that will wreak havoc on local economies and possibly trigger civil unrest.
00:17:26.000They also said food shortages have led to civil unrest in the past with deadly consequences.
00:17:30.000Remember, you are nine meals away from anarchy.
00:17:33.000That's right, nine meals away from anarchy.
00:17:36.000If not now, to get prepared, then when?
00:17:38.000Well, it's time to get emergency food with preparewithkirk.com.
00:18:53.000I'm not here to tell you he's the greatest person ever.
00:18:55.000I'm telling you, John Fetterman wins in Pennsylvania, then you're going to have some guy wearing a sweatshirt mumbling to himself about why we need to let everyone out of prison.
00:19:49.000Tiffany Smiley is running up against Patty Murray.
00:19:52.000Now, if you were to have Tiffany Smiley on this program and she wasn't running for a U.S. Senate race, I would say that she would be a moderate.
00:20:02.000She's probably in the Susan Collins mold of Republicans.
00:20:08.000And I've said for a while: the type of Republican that bothers me the most is one that runs as a conservative and then votes or legislates or governs as a moderate.
00:20:19.000Tiffany Smiley is running as a moderate.
00:21:06.000Would you like to see Rand Paul with an opportunity to cross-examine Fauci where he only has five minutes at a time when Maisie Hirono has to interrupt him or when he gets longer periods of time because he's in the majority?
00:22:05.000You got all sorts of other questions you can worry about.
00:22:07.000You got Katie Britt, who's going to be the next senator from Alabama.
00:22:09.000But if you're in Colorado, you need to ask yourself, do I want Joe O'Day, who I disagree with on abortion vehemently, but will be with us on inflation, the IRS, border and crime, or I don't want, or do I want Michael Bennett?
00:22:23.000Here's the one thing that frustrates me about politics, but it's a lot like life.
00:22:27.000You don't always get the choice that you want.
00:22:30.000That's something that I learned a long time ago.
00:22:33.000Primaries are where you can get the choice you want.
00:23:02.000If you live in a blue state, are you as a grassroots conservative willing to vote for someone that you know you disagree with, that campaigns on disagreements, but might actually have some, let's say, meaningful contribution if they go to Washington, D.C. Smiley and O'Day is that question in Washington and in Colorado.
00:23:26.000And joining us now is Robert Kahale from Trafalgar Group, the most accurate polling company in the country.
00:23:33.000They have hit it right on the mark, and I'm going to ask them a lot of questions about kind of races that are happening here.
00:23:38.000Robert, welcome to the Charlie Kirk Show.
00:23:42.000So let me ask you just a couple top line stuff.
00:23:45.000What are you seeing on the generic for the Republican, Democrat, for the House of Representatives?
00:23:50.000As you see it today, how do you believe the House of Representatives will kind of play out 63 days out from the midterms?
00:23:57.000Yeah, we see the Republicans up in the generic, but we also don't think the generic is necessarily of this crystal ball because these comes down to particular races.
00:24:09.000Republicans tend to do better state by state and district by district than they do on a national analysis, considering there are so many districts that are just one-sided Democrat and so many more competitive that lean Republicans.
00:24:25.000But even in the generic, we show a consistent four or five point lead for the Republicans.
00:24:30.000So what do you think that manifests as far as seat majorities potentially?
00:24:34.000And do you think that's going to expand as we get closer to election day?
00:24:38.000I don't know that the generic ballot is going to change.
00:24:41.000And one of the main reasons is, I'm sure you've noticed this, the left and left-leaning polling organizations, whether they're from universities or whether they are part of the mainstream media, are going to continue to skew these polling averages with nonsense numbers.
00:24:57.000So it really doesn't matter if there's only two or three of us telling the truth out there, that generic ballot is going to continue to tick toward the left.
00:25:06.000But as far as what's actually going to happen in the elections, no, I think the Republicans are going to pick up.
00:25:11.000What we've seen in the last week or so, after the announcement of the student loan forgiveness, we've just seen a visceral.
00:25:20.000I mean, this is the biggest thing we've seen so far to motivate conservative voters.
00:25:57.000I speak at pro-life dinners all the time and we talk about the need to end abortion in our country.
00:26:02.000However, I've said for quite some time, I do not think the conservative base is nearly as pro-life as I am or as pro-life as I would like it to be.
00:26:10.000In private conversations, people whisper to me and they tell me, Charlie, you got to cool it on the abortion issue.
00:26:15.000Charlie, I understand you want to get rid of abortion, but I don't.
00:26:18.000And I see it reflected in our emails, freedom at charliekirk.com.
00:26:21.000I'd say 50% of emails we receive are people that say, Charlie, I'm somewhat pro-life, but I think that it should be okay up to 10 weeks and 15 weeks.
00:26:28.000Now, I totally disagree at that position, but I'm looking at this purely politically because I also don't want to have a delusion of my own opinion where I act as if everyone is as pro-life as I am, which I don't think is true.
00:26:49.000What it says is there's a coalition of pro-life.
00:26:53.000And if you include in that coalition those who believe in life of the mother and only, the exceptions of rape and incest, and then you add those who want to see a heartbeat style few-week ban, we're at 55% of the public or more in most of these states believe in this.
00:27:16.000Now, South Carolina, for example, one of the ones you, I think, put up that number was 61.
00:27:21.000But we've seen over the course, state by state, it's about a 55% average of a working coalition to eliminate abortion, abortion beyond those first few weeks, you know, kind of at that threshold of heartbeat.
00:27:37.000And so to me, when the Republicans are talking about what exceptions, how many weeks they're losing, and when the Democrats are talking about defending abortion on demand, all three TriMasters and partial birth, they're winning.
00:27:53.000Are you saying that there is a majority coalition on banning late-term abortion?
00:29:35.000I think the overreaction by some on our side, pushing too hard too fast after decision, was a bigger impact.
00:29:43.000We didn't see the polling numbers really kind of move much in the Democrats direction right after the decision.
00:29:50.000But after four or five states started trying to completely eliminate going beyond heartbeat, then we saw that reaction that started to hurt.
00:29:59.000So I think it's much more the conservative movement reacting a little too fast and a little too much.
00:30:07.000This is a goal that you have to get to over time and doing it smartly.
00:30:12.000And that kind of smart movement is literally how that this can change.
00:30:16.000And so that's why I agree with what you're saying.
00:30:19.000But no, I think the opposition standalone, no.
00:30:22.000The reaction to it, which has already happened, yes.
00:30:26.000And I think the greatest thing to turn and motivate our side as much as that motivated their side was the school tuition.
00:30:34.000In Arizona, there is a huge coalition of people.
00:30:39.000All they talk about is how Blake Masters wants to get rid of all abortion.
00:30:43.000And it's become the number one issue in Scottsdale, right, Connor?
00:33:14.000What are some races you're looking at that could be, you know, every election cycle where you see kind of a wave, you always have a shock or two?
00:33:25.000Well, first of all, I've divided things up into before polling that we did before and after the student loan forgiveness.
00:33:33.000And with it, after the student loan forgiveness, we were in Washington state and we've got Patty Murray just barely up.
00:33:40.000Now, I think this is an anti-incumbent year as much as anything.
00:33:46.000And as it just so happens, Republicans are defending a lot of seats, but we have a lot of retirees, so we're not defending a lot of incumbents.
00:33:53.000I think Patty Murray is in real trouble there.
00:33:55.000Smiley is a very good candidate and with the right resources.
00:34:00.000Joe Biden is very underwater, even in Washington state.
00:34:04.000I think this is a real chance for an incumbent that's been there a long time to be knocked off.
00:35:51.000Wisconsin is tough to poll, but just as what happened in Wyoming and she spent too much time talking about talking about Trump, I think we'd like to see Ron Johnson probably talk a little less about Biden's laptop and a little more about Wisconsin.