The Charlie Kirk Show - September 06, 2022


60-Day Midterm Alert: Where Every Race Stands with Trafalgar Chief Pollster Robert Cahaly


Episode Stats


Length

36 minutes

Words per minute

183.9728

Word count

6,761

Sentence count

625

Harmful content

Misogyny

15

sentences flagged

Hate speech

10

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

We are 63 days away from the midterms, and what races should we be focusing our attention on? What races are we looking at? What are we focusing on? What races can we flip? And what can we do to flip them?

Transcript

Transcripts from "The Charlie Kirk Show" are sourced from the Knowledge Fight Interactive Search Tool. Explore them interactively here.
Misogyny classifications generated with MilaNLProc/bert-base-uncased-ear-misogyny .
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
00:00:00.000 Hey everybody, it's Anthony Charlie Kirk Show.
00:00:01.000 63 days in the midterms.
00:00:02.000 We go around the horn.
00:00:03.000 What races are we looking at?
00:00:05.000 What things are we focusing on?
00:00:07.000 Well, you guys are going to enjoy this episode.
00:00:10.000 Get involved with Turning Point Action, tpaction.com for all things midterms, for all things education, the education of your kids and grandkids.
00:00:17.000 Go to tpusa.com.
00:00:19.000 That is tpusa.com.
00:00:21.000 And if you want to support us directly, go to charliekirk.com/slash support.
00:00:25.000 That is charliekirk.com/slash support.
00:00:28.000 Email me directly, freedom at charliekirk.com.
00:00:30.000 That is freedom at charliekirk.com.
00:00:33.000 Buckle up, everybody.
00:00:34.000 Here we go.
00:00:35.000 Charlie, what you've done is incredible here.
00:00:37.000 Maybe Charlie Kirk is on the college campus.
00:00:39.000 I want you to know we are lucky to have Charlie Kirk.
00:00:42.000 Charlie Kirk's running the White House, folks.
00:00:45.000 I want to thank Charlie.
00:00:46.000 He's an incredible guy.
00:00:48.000 His spirit, his love of this country, he's done an amazing job building one of the most powerful youth organizations ever created.
00:00:55.000 Turning point USA. 0.65
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00:01:17.000 We are 63 days away, 63 days away from a midterm election.
00:01:23.000 It's snuck up on us.
00:01:24.000 In fact, we are about, let me do the math, 45 to 50 days away in certain states from ballots going out, 45 to 50 days out.
00:01:35.000 We are being outspent significantly in the key states.
00:01:42.000 We have some candidates that are fighting like heck, but the Democrats are coming in with kleptocratic Silicon Valley money that is just blowing expectations out of the water.
00:01:54.000 So what we're going to do right out of the gate here as we're back from Labor Day, we're going to go around the horn.
00:02:00.000 What states and races should we be focused on?
00:02:03.000 So first, of course, let's frame this.
00:02:04.000 The House of Representatives, totally up for grabs.
00:02:06.000 Every single person has to rerun for election in the House of Representatives every two years.
00:02:11.000 All we have to do is win the House of Representatives by one vote.
00:02:14.000 Now, I know some of you say, Charlie, we haven't done enough to fix our elections.
00:02:18.000 We haven't done it.
00:02:18.000 I agree with all that.
00:02:19.000 That's not what this conversation is going to be about, though.
00:02:21.000 This conversation is going to be about what candidates, what races are we looking at so we can overwhelm the system because we talk about election integrity a lot on this program.
00:02:32.000 We talk about mules.
00:02:33.000 We talk about ballot practices.
00:02:35.000 This conversation is going to be focused on what are we going to do the next 63 days.
00:02:40.000 That's the most operative question.
00:02:43.000 There was a lot of opportunities previously to fix our elections.
00:02:46.000 We did some of it.
00:02:47.000 Now we're going to have to overwhelm the system again to permanently fix our elections in Arizona or in Georgia or in other states.
00:02:53.000 The Senate is 50-50. 0.98
00:02:55.000 Now, if we tie, if we end up tying the U.S. Senate, we lose because Kamala Harris ends up being the tiebreaking vote.
00:03:03.000 So there are some incumbents that we have to hold on to if we want to keep the U.S. Senate.
00:03:06.000 And then there are some ones that we can flip.
00:03:08.000 Let's start with the Senate race in North Carolina.
00:03:12.000 Ted Budd is running in North Carolina, and Ted Budd very well might be and should be the next senator from North Carolina.
00:03:19.000 Now, this is not a flip opportunity.
00:03:21.000 This is a hold opportunity.
00:03:24.000 In North Carolina, Ted Budd looks to be up a point or two.
00:03:26.000 The latest poll shows him down to this snake by the name of Beasley, a former Chief Justice of North Carolina's Supreme Court's Senate seat, North Carolina Supreme Court, will face off against GOP Representative Ted Budd, who represents North Carolina's 13th district.
00:03:43.000 Beasley is running as a moderate.
00:03:45.000 Ted Budd is going to win this race absent any major failings or fumbles, but we got to support Ted Budd.
00:03:51.000 So first of all, North Carolina.
00:03:52.000 Number two, Georgia, very important Georgia Senate race.
00:03:56.000 This is a flip opportunity.
00:03:58.000 This is a huge flip opportunity.
00:04:00.000 Many of you probably watched what looked to be a high school football game versus a college game of Oregon versus Georgia.
00:04:07.000 Don't rub salt in the wound.
00:04:09.000 Big Ducks fan over here.
00:04:10.000 Boy, was that hard to watch.
00:04:11.000 Geez, it wasn't even a football game.
00:04:13.000 Herschel Walker was at the game.
00:04:14.000 Herschel Walker, of course, Heisman Trophy winner, one of the best college running backs of all time.
00:04:19.000 Herschel Walker is running up against the charlatan Raphael Warnock to actually flip the U.S. Senate race.
00:04:26.000 Raphael Warnock should not be the U.S. Senator from Georgia.
00:04:30.000 Never should have happened.
00:04:31.000 And Trafalgar and Emerson both have Raphael Warnock up.
00:04:35.000 He is trending beautifully in the state of Georgia.
00:04:38.000 Now, I'm not going to dive too deep into this, but I'm telling you, as football season starts to come front and center in Georgia, Herschel Walker is going to surge.
00:04:46.000 You can make fun of that all you want, media matters.
00:04:49.000 You have never spent time in rural Georgia if you think that's a joke.
00:04:52.000 The better Georgia football does, the better Herschel Walker looks.
00:04:56.000 That's not going to be the only reason why people vote for it, but it does not hurt in a year where Georgia is the defending national champion to have the Heisman Trophy winning darling of the University of Georgia Bulldogs running for the United States Senate.
00:05:10.000 Just look at Tommy Tuberville.
00:05:12.000 Tommy Tubberville in Auburn was able to beat Doug Jones.
00:05:16.000 Thank you.
00:05:16.000 Doug Jones in Alabama.
00:05:18.000 So Georgia is very important with Herschel Walker.
00:05:19.000 Next, we have Arizona, of course, two incredibly important races.
00:05:23.000 Of course, also the Secretary of State's race with Mark Fincham, but we have Blake Masters and Kerry Lake. 0.89
00:05:28.000 Now, Carrie Lake is up against Katie Hobbs. 1.00
00:05:30.000 Katie Hobbs is spending money like crazy, but nothing even close to Mark Kelly.
00:05:36.000 The latest polls show Kerry Lake up about 0.7 points on Katie Hobbs.
00:05:41.000 Blake Masters, it shows, is down three points in Arizona.
00:05:44.000 This is another flip opportunity.
00:05:46.000 So let's just pretend we flip the Georgia Senate race and Herschel Walker flips that.
00:05:51.000 That would make the U.S. Senate balance 51.49.
00:05:53.000 Now, if we lose Arizona, that actually still means that we would have the Senate 5149.
00:06:00.000 But if we're able to flip Arizona, which would be massive, and it is doable.
00:06:06.000 It is achievable.
00:06:07.000 Blake Masters, a young, energetic, charismatic candidate, trying to get all the money he possibly can for his needed air war.
00:06:16.000 If we're able to win in Arizona, Senate would go 52.48.
00:06:23.000 Keep your eyes on Arizona.
00:06:24.000 Very, very important.
00:06:26.000 Next, go to Pennsylvania.
00:06:28.000 First, the governor's race.
00:06:29.000 One of our favorite candidates in the country, Doug Mastriano.
00:06:33.000 Mastriano is doing, he's running a great race.
00:06:36.000 He's up against Shapiro, who is awful.
00:06:39.000 Doug Mastriano is starting to see momentum on the ground and is doing much better.
00:06:44.000 And then in the Senate race, I know a lot of people here are not fans of Dr. Oz.
00:06:49.000 We're actually going to have Dr. Oz on the program.
00:06:51.000 We're going to ask him very pointed questions.
00:06:54.000 I disagree with Dr. Oz on certain things, but I'll tell you this.
00:06:57.000 Dr. Oz looks better and better every single day the more I see the guy that is, I don't know, sweatshirt Shrek walking around Pennsylvania.
00:07:11.000 This guy, John Fetterman, is one of the most dangerous candidates in the entire country.
00:07:18.000 He's dangerous because he camouflages himself.
00:07:20.000 He pretends like he's some sort of working man moderate, wears gym shorts and a sweatshirt.
00:07:26.000 Now, I'm not here to trivialize somebody's health, but John Fetterman is not currently in a state of being to serve in the United States Senate, period.
00:07:37.000 John Fetterman makes Joe Biden look sentient.
00:07:43.000 That really tells you.
00:07:44.000 That says something.
00:07:45.000 And Dr. Oz needs to hammer him on that.
00:07:47.000 For those of you that live in Pennsylvania, you might say, Charlie, I don't like Oz.
00:07:50.000 I don't want to vote for him.
00:07:50.000 Well, then vote against Fetterman.
00:07:53.000 That's a referendum on Fetterman because that guy, if he gets in the U.S. Senate, he will be a younger, taller, more radical Bernie Sanders.
00:08:01.000 As someone put it, it's Bernie Sanders on stilts.
00:08:04.000 So, Pennsylvania, Dr. Raza Mastriano.
00:08:06.000 Now, this is a hold seat.
00:08:09.000 Pennsylvania is a hold seat, largely because of Pat Toomey.
00:08:14.000 If we hold on to Pennsylvania, it's largely because Donald Trump brought Pat Toomey across the finish line.
00:08:19.000 You might remember in 2016 when he won that surprise Senate race.
00:08:23.000 Ohio is a hold.
00:08:24.000 We have to hold in Ohio.
00:08:26.000 The race is looking better and better for JD Vance.
00:08:29.000 JD's running a great campaign.
00:08:30.000 As you know, we're behind JD on this program.
00:08:32.000 JD looks like he's going to be the next senator from Ohio, but he needs your support.
00:08:35.000 He needs your backing.
00:08:36.000 He's up against a very slippery, duplicitous candidate in Tim Ryan.
00:08:42.000 JD is going to get some separation speed.
00:08:44.000 My prediction is that J.D. wins by five or six points.
00:08:47.000 That's the latest Trafalgar poll that shows J.D. up a couple points.
00:08:50.000 Onward to Wisconsin.
00:08:53.000 Wisconsin, Ron Johnson, who is running a great race.
00:08:57.000 If there is an incumbent to support that needs your help, it is Ron Johnson.
00:09:02.000 Ron Johnson, I can say this more so than any other Republican, more than Ted Budd and anybody else.
00:09:08.000 Ron Johnson will forever be in the pantheon of heroes, in my estimation, for his courage of taking on the vaccine issue.
00:09:18.000 And the current poll shows Ron Johnson down slightly in the Wisconsin Senate race.
00:09:25.000 Polls are not good in Wisconsin.
00:09:27.000 Now, anyone who's spent time in Wisconsin politics knows the following: Wisconsin is probably the most difficult state to poll outside of Alaska.
00:09:37.000 Very rural.
00:09:38.000 People are very closed-lipped.
00:09:40.000 They don't like talking to outsiders. 0.97
00:09:42.000 You get north of the Milwaukee corridor, no one wants to talk to you.
00:09:46.000 Ron Johnson beat Russ Feingold in the 2010 Senate race, if I'm not mistaken.
00:09:53.000 Is my math correct?
00:09:54.000 Russ Feingold, and he was down in every single poll.
00:09:57.000 We could find some of those.
00:09:59.000 Ron Johnson is incredible, is an incredible candidate.
00:10:03.000 He needs our support.
00:10:04.000 So, what are we doing here?
00:10:05.000 We are going around the horn of the top races and candidates that need your support and that need our focus.
00:10:12.000 We are 63 days out from a reckoning, everybody.
00:10:18.000 Look, we talk about current events a lot on this show, but there's other things that are in life that are bigger than current events, bigger things.
00:10:23.000 We try to do some shows every so often on these things.
00:10:26.000 But look, what am I talking about when I say that?
00:10:28.000 How about good and evil?
00:10:30.000 Right and wrong, prayer and the Bible, or heaven and hell.
00:10:33.000 So, look, the great C.S. Lewis, who's one of the most amazing minds ever to exist, was a master at addressing these questions.
00:10:42.000 And that is why Hillsdale College, the great college, the only college, in my opinion, wants you to learn more about him and his writings in their newest free online course, C.S. Lewis on Christianity.
00:10:54.000 And it all starts with taking a short quiz to find out how much you already know about Lewis.
00:10:59.000 He wrote more than the Narnia series, by the way.
00:11:02.000 Look, Hillsdale College is amazing.
00:11:04.000 They defend liberty.
00:11:04.000 They pursue truth.
00:11:06.000 They do a great job.
00:11:07.000 So just write this down.
00:11:08.000 This should be your go-to resource.
00:11:10.000 Remember, I have taken 16 of their online courses, and I have promised Dr. Arne I'm eventually going to finish them all.
00:11:16.000 Go to charlie4hillsdale.com to take this fun, interactive quiz, and then sign up for this free course.
00:11:22.000 The answers may even surprise you, even if you think you know everything about C.S. Lewis.
00:11:26.000 They surprised me, my goodness.
00:11:27.000 The quiz, the course, and everything you learn at Hillsdale College are yours for free, as always.
00:11:32.000 So take the C.S. Lewis quiz, charlie4hillsdale.com.
00:11:36.000 That is charlie4hillsdale.com.
00:11:38.000 Take as many online courses as you can.
00:11:40.000 The Constitution course is amazing, but their C.S. Lewis course is extraordinary.
00:11:46.000 And by the way, Hillsdale College, just phenomenal.
00:11:49.000 Charlie4, Hillsdale.com.
00:11:54.000 Just a little bit more on Wisconsin.
00:11:55.000 Wisconsin's a beautiful state.
00:11:57.000 I love the state of Wisconsin.
00:11:58.000 Phenomenal people.
00:11:59.000 Very difficult to poll.
00:12:00.000 Now, when I mention these polls, we're very selective about what polls we share on this program.
00:12:05.000 We share Trafalgar.
00:12:07.000 We share maybe we'll share some other ones, maybe Richard Barris, big data poll, because we believe that there are suppression polls out there.
00:12:16.000 Remember the polls that show Donald Trump's going to lose Florida by four points?
00:12:19.000 He ends up winning historically.
00:12:21.000 Donald Trump's going to win Ohio.
00:12:22.000 This is back in 2020.
00:12:23.000 So we're very careful what polls we show.
00:12:25.000 So when we say a poll on this program, it's from a pollster that we trust, with a methodology that's been proven, with a track record that has been indicative previously of an outcome that can be accurate.
00:12:38.000 We don't do this.
00:12:40.000 What is that one that they love?
00:12:41.000 Susquehanna, Susquehanna. 1.00
00:12:43.000 There are a bunch of frauds over there.
00:12:45.000 They should be shut down by the FTC for deliberate lying.
00:12:49.000 So Ron Johnson is in a tough race in Wisconsin.
00:12:52.000 The latest Trafalgar poll has him down a point and a half.
00:12:54.000 But again, Wisconsin is so hard to poll.
00:12:56.000 It is an impossible state to poll.
00:12:59.000 It would be a tragedy, though, if we take back the House.
00:13:02.000 It would be awful if we win all these other Senate races and we lose Ron Johnson.
00:13:06.000 Ron Johnson went out on a limb.
00:13:08.000 He hosted Dr. Malone.
00:13:10.000 He hosted Dr. Peter McCullough and talked about the vaccine and the adverse events.
00:13:15.000 Ron Johnson needs our help, everybody.
00:13:18.000 He's a patriot.
00:13:19.000 He's a fighter.
00:13:20.000 He's a business guy.
00:13:21.000 He's a profile in courage.
00:13:22.000 And they are pouring money into Wisconsin against him.
00:13:26.000 So if you live in Wisconsin, become a precinct committee man, knock on some doors for him.
00:13:31.000 I do believe Ron Johnson will be successful.
00:13:33.000 If you go read the 2010 profile on Ron Johnson, it says Johnson mounted a late comeback in the fall after months of, this is back in 2010, 12 years ago, insisting the race was closer than it appeared.
00:13:45.000 He led a public poll for the first time in October.
00:13:47.000 Feingold was down one point in the final Marquette law school poll.
00:13:52.000 So consider the gold standard of polling in the state, which is true.
00:13:54.000 The Marquette Law School poll right before the election is usually predictive.
00:13:59.000 But Ron Johnson seemed like he was going to lose the entire time in surge to victory.
00:14:03.000 Same thing happened in 2016.
00:14:04.000 In 2016, he was down nine points in the Marquette Law School poll.
00:14:09.000 So the law school poll was right in 2020.
00:14:11.000 It was off by nine points.
00:14:12.000 And then Johnson won and beat Feingold by third, three points.
00:14:16.000 Point is this, that the polls in Wisconsin are all over the place, regardless of the polls.
00:14:20.000 Put them aside.
00:14:20.000 Ron Johnson needs your help.
00:14:22.000 Ron Johnson is right near the top of my list of people that I want to help.
00:14:26.000 Blake Masters, JD Vance, Ron Johnson.
00:14:29.000 What he did to expose Fauci and the medical industrial complex is just heroic.
00:14:36.000 Okay.
00:14:36.000 Nevada, Adam Laxalt.
00:14:38.000 Adam Laxalt is running a great race.
00:14:40.000 Trafalgar shows Adam Laxalt up on Cortez Masto.
00:14:45.000 This is a flip opportunity.
00:14:47.000 It's a flip opportunity where Adam Laxalt can beat and defeat Cortez Masto.
00:14:53.000 That's a surprise.
00:14:54.000 That's a sleeper race.
00:14:55.000 I'm telling you right now.
00:14:56.000 Nevada, keep your eye on Nevada.
00:14:59.000 Nevada has been punished by Sisilac.
00:15:01.000 Lockdowns, the gaming industry has been decimated by Democrats.
00:15:05.000 Adam Laxalt has won statewide before.
00:15:08.000 We endorse Adam Laxalt here on this program.
00:15:10.000 Adam Laxalt is running a great race.
00:15:12.000 The rules are going to show up for him.
00:15:14.000 It all comes down to Clark County.
00:15:16.000 He's going to run up the score in Henderson, which is a heavy LDS population.
00:15:20.000 If he can just splice, if he can lose less in Clark County, in some of the precincts around kind of the Summerlin area, which has turned to be a little liberal, but really deep down, should be conservative Republican, Adam Laxalt could be the next senator from Nevada.
00:15:34.000 Now, I will say this carefully because we're on YouTube.
00:15:37.000 If you want to talk about a state that has shenanigans, ballot harvesting, culinary union corruption, just look at the state that Harry Reid built.
00:15:46.000 Now, I was flying out of Vegas recently, and I think they renamed the entire airport the Harry Reed Airport.
00:15:52.000 And I just, I had to go get a tums.
00:15:55.000 That's why I travel with Pepto-Bismal. 0.96
00:15:57.000 It used to be McCarran International.
00:15:59.000 Now it's the Harry Reed Airport.
00:16:00.000 What an insult to ethics and integrity and to the North Star compass that we all have somewhere in our soul.
00:16:06.000 I know it's almost like flying into the John McCain terminal in Phoenix.
00:16:09.000 It's just, how many corrupt senators do we have to name stuff?
00:16:12.000 It's almost like flying into Little Rock, Arkansas, when you have the Bill and Hillary Clinton airport.
00:16:17.000 You rob the country blind, you destroy Western civilization, or you do your best at it, you get an airport named after you.
00:16:25.000 I know, exactly.
00:16:26.000 Andrew's exactly right.
00:16:28.000 I like John Wayne, Bob Hope, and Ronald Reagan International.
00:16:31.000 I totally agree.
00:16:33.000 This Bill and Hillary Clinton, John McCain, Harry Reid stuff is nonsense.
00:16:37.000 We have a lot more races I want to cover here, and this is actually fun.
00:16:40.000 I know we're getting a lot of emails here at freedom at charliekirk.com.
00:16:42.000 Keep your eye on Adam Laxalt, though.
00:16:44.000 He's a sleeper out west.
00:16:46.000 I'm telling you.
00:16:47.000 If he beats Cortez Mastro, that is a flip.
00:16:50.000 So if we even have one or two of these flips, just one or two of these flips, Laxalt, Masters, Herschel, and then we hold Ohio and we hold Wisconsin, the Senate can be ours.
00:17:02.000 I don't care what McConnell says.
00:17:04.000 Remember, Connell, we're not going to run the Senate.
00:17:06.000 Yeah, okay, pal.
00:17:08.000 The grassroots is going to do this.
00:17:10.000 Get out of the way.
00:17:13.000 Look, let me tell you: the worldwide food crisis is making headlines again.
00:17:17.000 Just recently, Business Insider said we're in a global food crisis that will wreak havoc on local economies and possibly trigger civil unrest.
00:17:26.000 They also said food shortages have led to civil unrest in the past with deadly consequences.
00:17:30.000 Remember, you are nine meals away from anarchy.
00:17:33.000 That's right, nine meals away from anarchy.
00:17:36.000 If not now, to get prepared, then when?
00:17:38.000 Well, it's time to get emergency food with preparewithkirk.com.
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00:18:15.000 That is preparewithkirk.com.
00:18:17.000 Check it out.
00:18:18.000 Preparewithkirk.com.
00:18:22.000 Raymond emailed us.
00:18:24.000 I love your thoughts, by the way, everybody.
00:18:25.000 Freedom at charliekirk.com.
00:18:26.000 Charlie, please make the point if we flip the Senate.
00:18:28.000 Not only do we win the Senate votes, but we get the Senate committee chairmanships.
00:18:32.000 That's exactly right.
00:18:34.000 I would love to see JD Vance.
00:18:36.000 I would love to see Ron Johnson again.
00:18:38.000 I'd love to see Josh Hawley on committees with subpoena power for the IRS, Anthony Fauci.
00:18:45.000 Now we could have an FBI committee, oversight committee, and the Church and Pike equivalent in both the Senate and the House.
00:18:51.000 So you might not like Dr. Oz.
00:18:53.000 I'm not here to tell you he's the greatest person ever.
00:18:55.000 I'm telling you, John Fetterman wins in Pennsylvania, then you're going to have some guy wearing a sweatshirt mumbling to himself about why we need to let everyone out of prison.
00:19:05.000 That's not prudent, okay?
00:19:07.000 The time to go merciless against Republicans is in primaries.
00:19:13.000 I'm all for that.
00:19:14.000 You guys know that.
00:19:14.000 So we're going to talk a little bit.
00:19:16.000 There's a good question out there because you guys know we are no fan of the Republican establishment here.
00:19:21.000 We're going to talk about some races that, quite honestly, I don't love where these candidates stand on certain issues.
00:19:27.000 But I actually might be pulling for them to win.
00:19:29.000 We're going to talk about that in just a second. 0.79
00:19:31.000 So we got Nevada.
00:19:32.000 We got Adam Laxalt.
00:19:33.000 There is a sleeper race that has emerged here.
00:19:36.000 There's two of them: there is one in Washington and there's one in Colorado.
00:19:41.000 The American West, I think, is going to have a hard right turn.
00:19:45.000 I think the American West is going to surprise some people.
00:19:48.000 Let's start in Washington.
00:19:49.000 Tiffany Smiley is running up against Patty Murray. 1.00
00:19:52.000 Now, if you were to have Tiffany Smiley on this program and she wasn't running for a U.S. Senate race, I would say that she would be a moderate. 1.00
00:20:02.000 She's probably in the Susan Collins mold of Republicans. 0.92
00:20:06.000 But you know what?
00:20:07.000 She's very honest about it.
00:20:08.000 And I've said for a while: the type of Republican that bothers me the most is one that runs as a conservative and then votes or legislates or governs as a moderate.
00:20:19.000 Tiffany Smiley is running as a moderate.
00:20:21.000 Washington is hardly a red state.
00:20:24.000 It is a reliably blue state.
00:20:26.000 A Republican has not won statewide in Washington in quite some time.
00:20:30.000 So Tiffany Smiley is now within striking distance against Patty Murray, and we are cheering for her.
00:20:35.000 Why? 1.00
00:20:35.000 Because Tiffany Smiley is going to give us one vote. 1.00
00:20:38.000 She will give us one vote that we care about. 0.98
00:20:40.000 You know what that one vote is? 1.00
00:20:42.000 She'll vote for a Republican majority. 1.00
00:20:45.000 That's prudent. 0.85
00:20:46.000 Now, I'm no fan of the Republican establishment, but do I want our studs?
00:20:51.000 Do I want people like Masters and Vance?
00:20:55.000 Do I want someone like Hawley or Mike Lee in the minority?
00:20:59.000 Or do I want them in the majority?
00:21:01.000 Of course you want them in the majority.
00:21:02.000 How about Rand Paul, who's in a great, he'll win in Kentucky big time.
00:21:05.000 He's going to win.
00:21:06.000 We love Rand.
00:21:06.000 Would you like to see Rand Paul with an opportunity to cross-examine Fauci where he only has five minutes at a time when Maisie Hirono has to interrupt him or when he gets longer periods of time because he's in the majority?
00:21:17.000 These are very important questions.
00:21:19.000 Another race where, again, I'm not a fan of this guy's position on abortion at all.
00:21:25.000 In fact, I think he's leading with it.
00:21:26.000 It's kind of almost nauseating, to be honest.
00:21:28.000 But he could win.
00:21:30.000 And it's Joe O'Day in Colorado.
00:21:33.000 He's the nominee.
00:21:34.000 Again, his position on social issues is not even close to being mine, but he's within one point of defeating Michael Bennett.
00:21:41.000 Joe O'Day is, he calls himself a pro-choice Republican, of which I find to be a laughable proposition, but he could win.
00:21:49.000 He's within one point of Michael Bennett.
00:21:51.000 Now, you might say, oh, Charlie, why do we need someone like him?
00:21:53.000 It will just be another Mitt Romney.
00:21:55.000 I understand that.
00:21:57.000 I get it.
00:21:58.000 But if you're emailing me that from Alabama, that's actually not your question for you.
00:22:04.000 You got Tommy Tubberville.
00:22:05.000 You got all sorts of other questions you can worry about.
00:22:07.000 You got Katie Britt, who's going to be the next senator from Alabama.
00:22:09.000 But if you're in Colorado, you need to ask yourself, do I want Joe O'Day, who I disagree with on abortion vehemently, but will be with us on inflation, the IRS, border and crime, or I don't want, or do I want Michael Bennett?
00:22:23.000 Here's the one thing that frustrates me about politics, but it's a lot like life.
00:22:27.000 You don't always get the choice that you want.
00:22:30.000 That's something that I learned a long time ago.
00:22:33.000 Primaries are where you can get the choice you want.
00:22:36.000 You want to have a better candidate?
00:22:37.000 Hey, we did it here in Arizona.
00:22:39.000 We have a phenomenal gubernatorial candidate.
00:22:41.000 We have a fabulous senatorial candidate.
00:22:44.000 So there's going to be no one that's going to have to hold their nose.
00:22:46.000 Keep your eyes open.
00:22:48.000 O'Day could win in Colorado.
00:22:49.000 By the way, we're going to post this entire list at charliekirk.com.
00:22:53.000 I want to get to this question of the special master.
00:22:58.000 And by the way, you can email us your thoughts on racistfreedom at charliekirk.com.
00:23:01.000 I want your thoughts.
00:23:02.000 If you live in a blue state, are you as a grassroots conservative willing to vote for someone that you know you disagree with, that campaigns on disagreements, but might actually have some, let's say, meaningful contribution if they go to Washington, D.C. Smiley and O'Day is that question in Washington and in Colorado.
00:23:26.000 And joining us now is Robert Kahale from Trafalgar Group, the most accurate polling company in the country.
00:23:33.000 They have hit it right on the mark, and I'm going to ask them a lot of questions about kind of races that are happening here.
00:23:38.000 Robert, welcome to the Charlie Kirk Show.
00:23:40.000 Hey, it's great to be here, Charlie.
00:23:41.000 Thank you.
00:23:42.000 So let me ask you just a couple top line stuff.
00:23:45.000 What are you seeing on the generic for the Republican, Democrat, for the House of Representatives?
00:23:50.000 As you see it today, how do you believe the House of Representatives will kind of play out 63 days out from the midterms?
00:23:57.000 Yeah, we see the Republicans up in the generic, but we also don't think the generic is necessarily of this crystal ball because these comes down to particular races.
00:24:09.000 Republicans tend to do better state by state and district by district than they do on a national analysis, considering there are so many districts that are just one-sided Democrat and so many more competitive that lean Republicans.
00:24:22.000 So we see a big pickup.
00:24:25.000 But even in the generic, we show a consistent four or five point lead for the Republicans.
00:24:30.000 So what do you think that manifests as far as seat majorities potentially?
00:24:34.000 And do you think that's going to expand as we get closer to election day?
00:24:38.000 I don't know that the generic ballot is going to change.
00:24:41.000 And one of the main reasons is, I'm sure you've noticed this, the left and left-leaning polling organizations, whether they're from universities or whether they are part of the mainstream media, are going to continue to skew these polling averages with nonsense numbers.
00:24:57.000 So it really doesn't matter if there's only two or three of us telling the truth out there, that generic ballot is going to continue to tick toward the left.
00:25:06.000 But as far as what's actually going to happen in the elections, no, I think the Republicans are going to pick up.
00:25:11.000 What we've seen in the last week or so, after the announcement of the student loan forgiveness, we've just seen a visceral.
00:25:20.000 I mean, this is the biggest thing we've seen so far to motivate conservative voters.
00:25:24.000 It's made them extremely angry.
00:25:27.000 And ironically, it hasn't actually been a panacea for those receiving student loans.
00:25:32.000 The feedback we get is, I owe $90,000 and I owe 80.
00:25:36.000 Gee, thanks, Joe.
00:25:37.000 They don't even think it made a huge difference to them.
00:25:40.000 A couple of college kids responded or former students responded that $10,000 covers the semester and it's dropping the bucket.
00:25:48.000 So he's made no one happy.
00:25:50.000 And we're seeing it move some of these races that we thought were on the bubble back toward the right side.
00:25:55.000 So I'm very pro-life.
00:25:57.000 I speak at pro-life dinners all the time and we talk about the need to end abortion in our country. 0.99
00:26:02.000 However, I've said for quite some time, I do not think the conservative base is nearly as pro-life as I am or as pro-life as I would like it to be.
00:26:10.000 In private conversations, people whisper to me and they tell me, Charlie, you got to cool it on the abortion issue.
00:26:15.000 Charlie, I understand you want to get rid of abortion, but I don't. 0.98
00:26:18.000 And I see it reflected in our emails, freedom at charliekirk.com.
00:26:21.000 I'd say 50% of emails we receive are people that say, Charlie, I'm somewhat pro-life, but I think that it should be okay up to 10 weeks and 15 weeks.
00:26:28.000 Now, I totally disagree at that position, but I'm looking at this purely politically because I also don't want to have a delusion of my own opinion where I act as if everyone is as pro-life as I am, which I don't think is true.
00:26:41.000 You have some polling about this.
00:26:42.000 What does your polling show?
00:26:44.000 Again, Trafalgar Group, most accurate polling firm.
00:26:46.000 What does your polling tell us?
00:26:49.000 What it says is there's a coalition of pro-life.
00:26:53.000 And if you include in that coalition those who believe in life of the mother and only, the exceptions of rape and incest, and then you add those who want to see a heartbeat style few-week ban, we're at 55% of the public or more in most of these states believe in this.
00:27:16.000 Now, South Carolina, for example, one of the ones you, I think, put up that number was 61.
00:27:21.000 But we've seen over the course, state by state, it's about a 55% average of a working coalition to eliminate abortion, abortion beyond those first few weeks, you know, kind of at that threshold of heartbeat.
00:27:37.000 And so to me, when the Republicans are talking about what exceptions, how many weeks they're losing, and when the Democrats are talking about defending abortion on demand, all three TriMasters and partial birth, they're winning. 0.56
00:27:53.000 Are you saying that there is a majority coalition on banning late-term abortion?
00:27:57.000 Is that correct?
00:27:58.000 Yes, there is a majority coalition banning on anything beyond heartbeat.
00:28:04.000 I mean, we're at a 55% national coalition beyond that.
00:28:07.000 And some people would say after heartbeat isn't necessarily late term.
00:28:11.000 So this argument is being won, but when we push a little too hard, we're starting, you know, your analysis is exactly right on.
00:28:20.000 Not everybody in the coalition is as pro-life as maybe you or I are.
00:28:24.000 And right now, it is about we got here because we won elections and we got to continue winning elections.
00:28:33.000 And we don't want to lose an election because we try to grab too much at one time.
00:28:36.000 Because who does that sound like?
00:28:38.000 No, yeah.
00:28:38.000 And I just, again, I just want to be realistic.
00:28:41.000 And I'm not saying that we should compromise on our abortion issues, on the abortion issue or how we talk about it.
00:28:47.000 But I also, I see what's happening in front of me where people tell me all the time, cut it out.
00:28:54.000 I don't agree with you.
00:28:55.000 And they say, otherwise I vote for Republican.
00:28:57.000 And it's just the country is not there.
00:28:58.000 The movement is not there.
00:29:00.000 And if you think abortion is a, if everyone in the conservative movement agrees on it, it's not totally true.
00:29:05.000 Do I think that the conservative movement finds late-term abortion reprehensible?
00:29:09.000 Of course.
00:29:09.000 Do I agree with you on the heartbeat thing?
00:29:11.000 Most people do yes.
00:29:12.000 But when I start to talk about abortion bans, I would say I lose half the room.
00:29:16.000 People get very skittish on that sort of stuff.
00:29:19.000 Okay.
00:29:19.000 So let me ask you about some of the races here.
00:29:22.000 Actually, let me just ask you one more question on that.
00:29:23.000 Do you think that the Dobsdiff's decision and the abortion issue, is that energizing Democrats and helping their fundraising?
00:29:32.000 It's interesting.
00:29:33.000 I don't think the decision is.
00:29:35.000 I think the overreaction by some on our side, pushing too hard too fast after decision, was a bigger impact.
00:29:43.000 We didn't see the polling numbers really kind of move much in the Democrats direction right after the decision.
00:29:50.000 But after four or five states started trying to completely eliminate going beyond heartbeat, then we saw that reaction that started to hurt.
00:29:59.000 So I think it's much more the conservative movement reacting a little too fast and a little too much.
00:30:07.000 This is a goal that you have to get to over time and doing it smartly.
00:30:12.000 And that kind of smart movement is literally how that this can change.
00:30:16.000 And so that's why I agree with what you're saying.
00:30:19.000 But no, I think the opposition standalone, no.
00:30:22.000 The reaction to it, which has already happened, yes.
00:30:26.000 And I think the greatest thing to turn and motivate our side as much as that motivated their side was the school tuition.
00:30:34.000 In Arizona, there is a huge coalition of people.
00:30:39.000 All they talk about is how Blake Masters wants to get rid of all abortion.
00:30:43.000 And it's become the number one issue in Scottsdale, right, Connor?
00:30:47.000 In Scottsdale, in Paradise Valley.
00:30:49.000 It's the only thing that they, I'm going to say, guys, there's other issues that are happening here.
00:30:53.000 And again, if you do not have political power, it doesn't matter what your issues are.
00:30:58.000 You just become an op-ed columnist, right?
00:31:00.000 We want senators, we want people with power to actually make meaningful changes in that direction.
00:31:06.000 Okay.
00:31:07.000 I see zero consensus on the abortion issue all across the line.
00:31:11.000 And people are saying, Charlie, abortion is fine.
00:31:13.000 Charlie, 10 weeks.
00:31:14.000 Charlie, 15 weeks.
00:31:15.000 Charlie, heartbeat. 0.70
00:31:16.000 Charlie, abortion ban. 0.59
00:31:17.000 This one right here.
00:31:19.000 Charlie, I don't agree with abortion ban. 0.84
00:31:20.000 I do agree no abortion after first term. 0.57
00:31:22.000 That just confirms that the more the Democrats focus on this issue, it creates confusion.
00:31:28.000 It creates lack of unity and uniformity.
00:31:31.000 And I say this as a 100% pro-life advocate and activist, actually.
00:31:36.000 A lot of work left to do.
00:31:37.000 Robert, let me ask you about some races here.
00:31:39.000 What do you think about the Arizona Senate race with Blake Masters and with Mark Kelly?
00:31:43.000 What is Blake Masters' path to victory?
00:31:46.000 First path to victory is he needs to say when it comes to abortion, the Dobbs decision is all about letting the states decide.
00:31:53.000 And I'm running for U.S. Senate.
00:31:55.000 And I'm not about any federal legislation that has to do with abortion.
00:31:59.000 Second, he needs to talk about Arizona issues.
00:32:01.000 He needs to talk about the border.
00:32:03.000 And he needs to remind people about this Biden economy.
00:32:05.000 And talk about the fact that this, you know, that we've got a guy in Mark Kelly who has voted solidly with Joe Biden.
00:32:14.000 Joe Biden is the anvil.
00:32:16.000 When you connect yourself to Joe Biden, you are losing.
00:32:19.000 I've said before, Joe Biden is like having, running with him, like running with a house full of termites.
00:32:24.000 It's not obvious.
00:32:25.000 People don't talk about it at first, but before it's over, it's the only thing that matters.
00:32:29.000 And so I think that Blake needs to do that.
00:32:32.000 And, you know, what's right now, we've got that thing at just about three points back.
00:32:37.000 I think Blake can easily win this race.
00:32:39.000 I'd love to see some of the national money be redirected back.
00:32:42.000 I think this is one of the seats that's on the bubble.
00:32:46.000 And, you know, I'd love to see a Senate Conservative Fund back in there.
00:32:51.000 Don't know why they left.
00:32:52.000 I'd love to see the Senate Majority Fund in there.
00:32:56.000 I think these guys and some other groups, this one is very, very competitive.
00:33:02.000 And if the resources would just get back behind Blake, I think this one's going to be a win.
00:33:07.000 So let me ask you, what are the sleeper races you have an eye on?
00:33:10.000 Races that all of a sudden are popping up.
00:33:12.000 Do you think Colorado has some life in there?
00:33:14.000 Washington?
00:33:14.000 What are some races you're looking at that could be, you know, every election cycle where you see kind of a wave, you always have a shock or two?
00:33:23.000 What are you thinking?
00:33:24.000 Absolutely.
00:33:25.000 Well, first of all, I've divided things up into before polling that we did before and after the student loan forgiveness.
00:33:33.000 And with it, after the student loan forgiveness, we were in Washington state and we've got Patty Murray just barely up.
00:33:40.000 Now, I think this is an anti-incumbent year as much as anything.
00:33:46.000 And as it just so happens, Republicans are defending a lot of seats, but we have a lot of retirees, so we're not defending a lot of incumbents.
00:33:53.000 I think Patty Murray is in real trouble there.
00:33:55.000 Smiley is a very good candidate and with the right resources.
00:34:00.000 Joe Biden is very underwater, even in Washington state.
00:34:04.000 I think this is a real chance for an incumbent that's been there a long time to be knocked off.
00:34:09.000 Colorado was competitive.
00:34:11.000 We have been it up just about five.
00:34:14.000 And again, I think that's one that is quite possible.
00:34:18.000 We're going to have some new numbers on Vermont.
00:34:20.000 We may find something there.
00:34:22.000 You know, they do have a Republican governor.
00:34:24.000 They've made it clear that they are not as one-party state as you might think.
00:34:29.000 And this, of course, is Leahy's seat.
00:34:33.000 I've been there forever.
00:34:34.000 So I think those are some sleepers that people ought to keep their eyes on.
00:34:40.000 And then there's some ones that maybe wouldn't expect early, but I feel like Nevada is probably going to be a win at this point.
00:34:45.000 So you think Laxalt against Cortez Masto?
00:34:48.000 Do you think Laxalt's going to win?
00:34:50.000 I think we have Laxa up already in that race.
00:34:53.000 Wow.
00:34:54.000 And so, and then on our side, I mean, again, I believe this is an anti-incumbent year as much as in anything.
00:35:01.000 And so we need to be very concerned about Ron Johnson.
00:35:04.000 The guy running against Ron Johnson is very smooth.
00:35:07.000 He's funny.
00:35:08.000 He's articulate.
00:35:09.000 He doesn't have a whole bunch of stuff to be used against him.
00:35:12.000 He hasn't been in Congress.
00:35:14.000 And so he's been a state politician.
00:35:16.000 And that makes a pretty dangerous race. 0.97
00:35:19.000 And, you know, Ron Johnson does not have the money he needs to have.
00:35:25.000 I mean, for an incumbent senator, he has a very low amount of money.
00:35:28.000 And that's of great concern.
00:35:30.000 So it's this guy, Mandela Barnes.
00:35:32.000 Is that right?
00:35:33.000 Mandela Barnes?
00:35:34.000 Yeah, he's he seems smooth.
00:35:36.000 He's got kind of like the Iran quality to him almost.
00:35:39.000 Absolutely.
00:35:39.000 Yeah.
00:35:40.000 Absolutely.
00:35:41.000 Yeah, I've heard that from many people on the ground.
00:35:43.000 But Ron Johnson needs help.
00:35:44.000 That would be such a disappointment to see Ron Johnson lose in what otherwise would be a wave year.
00:35:50.000 Wisconsin's tough to pull, isn't it?
00:35:51.000 Wisconsin is tough to poll, but just as what happened in Wyoming and she spent too much time talking about talking about Trump, I think we'd like to see Ron Johnson probably talk a little less about Biden's laptop and a little more about Wisconsin.
00:36:04.000 Yeah, I think he'll make the pivot.
00:36:06.000 Ron Johnson knows how to win when everyone counts him out.
00:36:09.000 That is a very, very tough state to pull, especially when you get the get to the northern parts of the state.
00:36:17.000 I think Ron will pull up this and be very, tight.
00:36:20.000 Robert Cahale from the Trafalgar Group, thank you so much.
00:36:23.000 Thank you.
00:36:24.000 Always honor to be here, Charlie.
00:36:25.000 You do great work.
00:36:26.000 You do great work.
00:36:26.000 Thank you.
00:36:27.000 Likewise, thank you.
00:36:31.000 Thanks so much for listening, everybody.
00:36:32.000 Email me your thoughts as always.
00:36:33.000 Freedom at charliekirk.com.
00:36:35.000 Thanks so much for listening.
00:36:36.000 God bless.
00:36:41.000 For more on many of these stories and news you can trust, go to CharlieKirk dot com.