00:01:00.000We will not embrace the ideas that have destroyed countries, destroyed lives, and we are going to fight for freedom on campuses across the country.
00:01:33.000So, we're going to keep you for the full hour here.
00:01:35.000We're going to go into great detail of what's happening into the midterm, coming in the midterms, the primaries that still have yet to happen.
00:01:43.000We get so many questions about all of this.
00:01:46.000So, let's just ask a 35,000-foot view question first.
00:02:15.000I'm starting to see some of the national numbers widen out a little bit again for Republicans, but district by district, we get a little bit more granular.
00:02:23.000There are some districts that Republicans should be running away with if they had a big generic ballot lead that still are a little bit closer than you would expect.
00:02:33.000That in the end, when we round the corner on Labor Day, that could all change, or maybe the national numbers are kind of leading.
00:02:41.000And as we get, you know, a couple couple weeks into it, they'll look more rosy for Republicans.
00:02:48.000But every time, and you know, we were talking about this the last time, every time Republicans look like they're going to start to stretch their legs and run away, they do something stupid and it bothers their base.
00:02:59.000I mean, it's you can count on it, you can set your watch by it at this point.
00:03:04.000Yeah, and it just seems as if they think they're going to win over voters in the middle, but the exact opposite is happening.
00:03:11.000Post-Roe versus Wade, have we seen any tightening?
00:03:14.000Has it been the boost that Democrats would have hoped it would be for them?
00:03:21.000I don't, you know, any tightening that we are seeing is not really from Roe.
00:03:25.000It's about motivation to vote, likely voter models.
00:03:29.000Uh, you have to get your base pump, but you also have to get those leaning independents, those independents that lean your way to vote disproportionately towards you, plus persuadable things, right?
00:03:39.000Uh, issues that are a matter of persuadable voters.
00:03:42.000There are just not that many out there anymore.
00:03:45.000Um, so it makes all the difference when you can persuade a little bit and then you can motivate your side.
00:03:50.000Democrats, uh, you know, this idea that abortion came into the picture and changed the dynamic is ridiculous.
00:04:00.000You know, two months ago, they would have told you Ukraine is their number one issue in foreign policy now.
00:04:06.000They care so much about a week before the Roe ruling, it was guns because of the mass shootings we saw the media pump up and actually helped to spark more of copycats.
00:04:18.000But then a week later, Roe came out and abortion became the focus of these people.
00:04:25.000The truth is, those who really are persuadable are not going to vote on Roe v. Wade.
00:04:31.000They're going to vote on the economy, pocketbook issues, things that matter to them.
00:04:35.000And that's why Republicans need to be careful and make sure that they're putting themselves in the position of being that opposition party.
00:04:42.000If you're complaining about inflation, you cannot send billions upon billions upon billions of dollars to other countries.
00:04:49.000If you're claiming that you're going to be a party that's looking out for the working class family, the working class voter in this country, you can't be sneaking in amnesties.
00:04:58.000If you care about being the party of the Bill of Rights, you can't be sneaking in last-minute gun grabs.
00:05:04.000So, you know, it's the old Ronald Reagan's, you know, used to say this all the time.
00:05:30.000Republicans, all the metrics, they're owning them.
00:05:33.000So you look at a state like North Carolina, which is always an interesting state to look at.
00:05:38.000There's a lot of Democrats that are registered Democrats that will never vote at the presidential or senatorial level for the Democratic candidate, unless there's a candidate that's pretending to run as some kind of a moderate.
00:05:50.000Republicans are thrashing Democrats in the registration race, but also in that primary, Republicans significantly turned out at higher rates than Democrats did.
00:06:01.000So it's a really good sign for Ted Budd, right?
00:06:04.000In an election that even if it's a good Republican election, it could still end up being pretty close.
00:06:09.000Florida, Republicans are just, they're killing it.
00:06:12.000That's a trend that began a while ago, without a doubt.
00:06:15.000What do you attribute really exacerbated?
00:07:13.000So, you know, Florida, I don't even think at this point anymore, Charlie, Florida is not really.
00:07:17.000I mean, we call it a battleground state, but because it's so big, when you start winning certain voters by these margins or certain areas by the margins that Republicans are winning them by, then maybe three points are not so interesting a lot, but it is.
00:07:31.000You know, because so, for example, we were reminiscing on a previous program about the RNC's autopsy report.
00:08:11.000And so over 10 years, what is it from a policy perspective, though, Richard, that has now turned this into incredibly more Republican than Georgia?
00:08:24.000Yeah, I'll tell you, that's a really good question.
00:08:36.000You know, the bottom line is when you're going to increase your appeal to working voters, family voters, it's not going to be isolated within one race, right?
00:08:48.000And that's something they missed in that autopsy.
00:08:51.000But honestly, in Florida, the interesting thing, Bill Nelson, he used to be thought of as a moderate.
00:09:09.000And by the way, Mark Kelly's leading by roughly the same margins that Bill Nelson was leading Rick Scott by until we called Rick Scott the giant killer back then because that's he would always come in with his 40% favorability rating and yet topple these people that are supposedly unbeatable.
00:09:25.000But he did it because he was actually really smart.
00:09:29.000He played to the strengths that he saw Republicans had in a state like Florida.
00:09:33.000Again, I think this is why you see there is a truth to it that it does really matter where you're coming from, whether it's state-to-state migration or it's international immigration, migration.
00:09:45.000It does matter where you're coming from.
00:09:47.000That's why Obama and others never really, they wanted to cancel the Wetfoot, Dryfoot policy, because they understood those were immigrants coming that would vote Republican.
00:09:57.000Venezuela, they'd rather just topple that regime and not let anybody in from Venezuela because they know these are voters who have lived under the system of government that they are now advocating the United States become.
00:10:09.000And this voter that I pulled in South Florida, he said, this is my first election.
00:10:16.000I've been here for years, a couple of years now, but I'm allowed to vote.
00:10:19.000I can't wait to vote for Donald Trump.
00:10:22.000He said, you know, for those of us who have lived under it before, you know the empty promises when you hear them, you know, because we heard these same promises, free health care.
00:10:37.000We're all equal at the bottom underneath the shoe of the elite.
00:10:40.000That's where we're all equally forced to suffer under.
00:10:43.000And then, you know, the truth is CNN, all these other, they had struggled to understand this, all these pundits from these media outlets.
00:10:51.000And the Florida poll really said it all.
00:10:53.000When you looked at these voters, it wasn't that, you know, their husbands, which was some commentary on CNN, are being bullying their wives to vote for Donald Trump, these Hispanic women.
00:11:07.000If you look at the Miami poll, the South Florida poll from the University of Miami, those new voters simply agreed with Donald Trump on everything, including immigration, from culture to the role of government.
00:12:57.000You know, Georgia is another interesting test case.
00:13:01.000I mean, you had a lot of Republicans, Southern, good old boys, you know, the establishment who relied on the goodwill of Southern voters for years.
00:13:10.000While they never understood that economics is politics, right?
00:13:16.000So, if you let in a mini tinsel town into Atlanta, you know, the surrounding suburbs may become blue.
00:13:24.000It depends what kind of industry those state governments chose to build up.
00:13:28.000And the truth is, they built a professional class sector in that area of the state.
00:13:33.000And then also, there's a growing Hispanic population, but it's still largely African-American.
00:13:39.000Until Republicans start to make inroads with those voters, like they have with Hispanic voters, then you have to win two-thirds of the white vote.
00:13:49.000You know, the bottom line is, though, I could tell you, you know, Charlie, I did poll Georgia, and I know that some people are seeing polls they don't like, but Donald Trump was outperforming every Republican, including Herschel Walker.
00:14:01.000In the rematch now, the national average is about Trump plus 10.
00:14:06.000You know, a month and a half ago when we polled it for CD Media, we had an 11-point lead for Donald Trump over Joe Biden.
00:14:12.000And this was a state that was like Trump plus two.
00:14:17.000You know, even in the polling that we were doing, we did think he was going to carry the state of Georgia.
00:14:32.000Trump does better with minorities than Republicans do, than generic Republicans do.
00:14:37.000And I know that makes the consultants in Washington, D.C., I know that makes their head explode when they hear that.
00:14:43.000But the truth is, all of those people who said that the Republican brand would be damaged among minorities because of Donald Trump, they were completely wrong.
00:14:51.000The truth is, those minority voters like Trump more than they like the party.
00:14:56.000So this primary has always been so important for the Republican Party and their identity crisis because they had America first has to win this fight.
00:15:05.000Yes, let's stay focused on the trenches are going to kill the party.
00:15:32.000Their weight variables must be ridiculous, Charlie, because you can't be winning non-college whites, whites with a college degree, be double digits among black voters and be winning two-thirds of the overall white vote and be down 10 points in the state of Georgia.
00:15:50.000Even if black voters are 30% of the electorate, roughly 30%, it's not possible to do some basic math.
00:15:59.000So after we did talk about that, even Data for Progress, they're a left-wing polling outfit and they tend to poll Democratic primaries better than they poll general elections.
00:16:09.000They have a slight Democratic bias in general elections.
00:16:12.000Even they had Walker ahead by two still.
00:16:15.000So I was a little bit flabbergasted in this year.
00:16:18.000Uh, where there's a Republican advantage.
00:16:20.000But also, Walker had a lot of goodwill he did, and we've polled it multiple times and he had anywhere from a two to six point lead.
00:16:28.000It just would have been really difficult.
00:16:30.000It was hard for me to swallow even if he made a misstep, it was hard for me to swallow that that would result in some, you know, insurmountable Warnock lead.
00:16:38.000That's crazy, especially since it does look like Republicans.
00:16:42.000You know, Abrams is just not very electable.
00:16:55.000You have all these voters who are going to go and re-elect Brian Kemp.
00:16:58.000They're, they're going to vote for Warnock too.
00:17:00.000I just I, I don't see it Charlie, I don't.
00:17:03.000I'd love to pull it again more recent, but I I, if I pegged it anywhere right now, i'd say it's about Walker plus one two, get your act together before you lose.
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00:18:00.000Make sure you have their food stocked for when you need it.
00:18:30.000You know, comments about no exceptions.
00:18:35.000If that's what you believe, then fine.
00:18:38.000But you have to know how to have a conversation with your communications team before you decide to just drop that bomb on the overall electorate.
00:18:48.000You have to deliver it in a way where you don't scare people, especially women in the suburbs who are hoping you just let them focus on inflation and not distract them from other issues.
00:19:00.000It just seems like some mishaps that the problem with Walker is that it could start to add up until it really equals you're not ready for prime time.
00:19:10.000And if that happens, it's going to be hard for him to dig himself out of that trench.
00:19:14.000The best way to deal with this is to prepare yourself for the debate.
00:19:18.000Do not pull a David Perdue and hide from the debate.
00:19:21.000Do not pull Kelly Lauffler and hide from the debate.
00:19:25.000Get people around that can prep you for it, which by the way, I offered to do myself.
00:19:30.000You know, you can prep Walker for it and trot him out there.
00:19:36.000Even if he doesn't seem like he's the sharpest on the minutiae of public policy, he's still super likable and people are going to give him the benefit of the doubt.
00:19:46.000And Walker, I mean, Warnock can't afford to open up the personal attacks that we've seen against Walker.
00:19:53.000I mean, because Walker could just turn on a debate stage, which he could use to advantage and say, you want to talk about personal lives and you want to bring sex into this as an issue.
00:20:02.000I didn't, you know, I'm not the one who presided over the summer camp from hell, okay?
00:21:35.000And basically, I think a lot of these articles from Politico that that's Mitch McConnell's favorite place to run and leak stuff to get what he wants.
00:21:44.000And I think he's lumping Oz, Herschel, and Blake Masters and JD Vance into this pot because he wants his consultants to take over.
00:21:52.000The real issue with Oz over there is that you have Kathy Barnett and others who refuse to let this go.
00:21:58.000I'm not, you know, I'm not paid to be nice to people.
00:23:20.000And, you know, Labor Day is going to be a very, you know, I remember when people were having heart attacks that Joni Ernst was never going to pull it off against Brady and Honor.
00:23:31.000And at the end of the day, Labor Day rolls around.
00:23:34.000People start really looking at their choices.
00:23:36.000We're in July, but there is structural base issues.
00:23:40.000I suppose that the rule of thumb that I've learned is that if you have significant name ID, you get a little bit of a built-in summer advantage, but the gap is usually narrowed as other wave type implications are playing in gas prices, inflation, wokeism, southern border.
00:24:00.000And kind of once you get parody on the television and you get parody in ads, and all of a sudden people really start to talk.
00:24:08.000and Republicans are less likely to respond to polls, then you start to see it go in that direction.
00:24:12.000And not to mention, and I'd love your thoughts on this, Richard, as we talk about next Arizona and the time we have remaining, which I know you've done a lot of polling on that I want you to report on, is this idea of the late and long primary.
00:26:05.000And I will say this, that the late breakers, the people that were kind of hanging back, that decided in the last day, two days we interviewed, they went for Kerry Lake pretty hard.
00:26:16.000I didn't even know about the situation on the ground, but the fundraising attack Kerry Lake used against Robson was very effective.
00:26:23.000This idea that there are older people being tricked through text messages, give to the wall, stop Joe Biden here.
00:26:30.000And what it turns into is a reoccurring donation to a candidate that had legs.
00:26:35.000And voters were telling us during interviews, I was going to vote against Kerry Lake, but I don't like that.
00:27:27.000And it's not because we were being unfair to the other candidates.
00:27:30.000The fact of the matter is those two candidates have enormous leads.
00:27:34.000So, when budget for media is an issue, you tell them what you think is right, which is just use the frontrunners and let's see how they're doing against the likely Democrats.
00:27:53.000Arizona's, yeah, Arizona's a tricky state to poll.
00:27:57.000And I think most people will end up underestimating Blake Masters because of the support he has among a certain group of men that most Republicans, other than Donald Trump, can't get.
00:29:11.000So do you think Masters can pull it off against Kelly for three reasons?
00:29:15.000I think he could do better with East Valley LDS voters that Trump did not resonate with, Mormon voters and Mesa and Chandler and Gilbert.
00:29:23.000I think he can get Joe Rogan men out to vote.
00:29:26.000And I don't think he turns off Paradise Valley Scottsdale soccer moms at all.
00:29:31.000I think he could actually be at parity with moms that are seeing the wokeism in schools, that are seeing the mat, that's all the mask mandates, but they just don't like Trump.
00:30:09.000There are some of those McCain Republicans left who tell us they want to vote for Mark Kelly, whereas about 6.5% of Republicans say they'll vote for Mark Kelly, but he needs to win those independents by the margin that Lake is winning them.
00:30:24.000And the reason I say this is because as we saw those interviews with those men, you could see the governor's race not really moving.
00:30:32.000What was changing was how big Masters' lead was going in the Senate primary.
00:31:04.000It's almost every time these consultants in DC make this proclamation, they end up being not just wrong, but completely the opposite of the truth.
00:31:13.000So just to make sure I understand, your polling shows Kerry Lake as the most likely to defeat Katie Hobbs.
00:31:22.000I've been told the exact opposite by every Republican consultant here in Arizona.
00:31:28.000Without a doubt, Robeson is not going to get those men.
00:31:31.000They're not going to run out and vote for her.
00:31:33.000And by the way, we went over this back in 2020.
00:31:37.000And, you know, they're all of those Arizona consultants and all of those DC consultants, and God love them.
00:31:43.000But, you know, we were getting Republican chairs and others from Arizona saying, is this what your polling is showing?
00:31:51.000And they were showing McSally within two, three points, within striking distance.
00:31:55.000You had Donald Trump down to Biden by eight.
00:31:58.000And I'm, and, you know, I came back and I would say, no, we had the complete opposite.
00:32:02.000Donald Trump is performing about three to five points better than Martha McSally.
00:32:46.000You know, even Virginia 10, for instance, right?
00:32:50.000That's, you know, everyone's looking at Virginia 7, which is Abigail Spanberger, Spangler, however, you say it, the former CIA, you know, employee who took over Bratzy, Dave Bratzy.
00:33:03.000Redistricting made both of those districts a little bit more difficult.
00:33:07.000But I'm telling you, when we were polling the state of Virginia, seven and 10 both looked like they were going to go.
00:33:13.000And seven was significantly leading Republican.
00:33:19.000So 10 should not be even in the state of Virginia.
00:33:22.000That's about a 10 to 12 point shift away from what we saw in 2020.
00:33:26.000But it's believable because that's exactly how Machumpin shifted the entire state.
00:33:31.000So you have a race like that that you need to keep an eye on.
00:33:34.000Republicans have a great, I don't want to butcher his name, but they have a great candidate who won the primary out there.
00:33:39.000And he's exactly the kind of candidate Republicans would need to take that.
00:33:44.000There are there, it has been some polling in states like Oregon, you know, where it looks close.
00:33:50.000I think O'Day could surprise people in Colorado.
00:33:54.000I was really impressed, not just with the vote total.
00:33:57.000I'm talking about the coalitions that came out and supported O'Day in the state of Colorado, a state that is like the wild west with election integrity.
00:34:05.000You know, it's just a total free-for-all out there.
00:34:08.000But yeah, I think O'Day could be a sleeper seat, you know, where if Republicans were to lose a Pennsylvania or lose a Georgia, even if they had a good night, they could make it up by picking up something like Oregon or Colorado, something shocking.
00:34:22.000You know, so Washington, I always thought was always going to be a little bit out of reach, but we'll see.
00:34:28.000You know, even by the way, New Hampshire is too close for Democrats, too close.
00:34:32.000Richard Barris, everybody, People's Pundit, big data polls.