The Charlie Kirk Show - July 23, 2022


Around the Electoral Horn—A Midterm Polling Update with Rich Baris


Episode Stats


Length

34 minutes

Words per minute

182.20314

Word count

6,368

Sentence count

519

Harmful content

Misogyny

10

sentences flagged

Toxicity

11

sentences flagged

Hate speech

11

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

Rich Barris from Big Data Polls joins us to talk about the midterms and the impact Roe v. Wade has had on the polls and on the ground. Plus, the Freedom Celebration in Tampa, FL on Saturday, September 15th.

Transcript

Transcripts from "The Charlie Kirk Show" are sourced from the Knowledge Fight Interactive Search Tool. Explore them interactively here.
Misogyny classifications generated with MilaNLProc/bert-base-uncased-ear-misogyny .
Toxicity classifications generated with s-nlp/roberta_toxicity_classifier .
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
00:00:00.000 Hey, everybody.
00:00:00.000 Pay on the Charlie Kirk show.
00:00:01.000 Rich Barris from Big Data Polls.
00:00:03.000 We go around the horn.
00:00:05.000 How's Georgia looking? 0.81
00:00:06.000 How's Arizona looking?
00:00:07.000 How's Florida looking?
00:00:09.000 Why has Florida become more Republican and Georgia more liberal?
00:00:12.000 What's going on with Carrie Lake?
00:00:13.000 What's going on with Blake Masters?
00:00:16.000 All of that and more.
00:00:18.000 Also, what's going on with Dr. Oz in Pennsylvania with the great Richard Barris?
00:00:22.000 Email me your thoughts as always, freedom at charliekirk.com.
00:00:25.000 We have our big freedom celebration coming up in Tampa, Florida, Friday, Saturday, Sunday.
00:00:29.000 Just in a couple hours, get your tickets, tpusa.com/slash SAS.
00:00:34.000 As always, you can support the program at charliekirk.com/slash support.
00:00:37.000 Buckle up, everybody.
00:00:38.000 Here we go.
00:00:39.000 Charlie, what you've done is incredible here.
00:00:41.000 Maybe Charlie Kirk is on the college campuses.
00:00:43.000 I want you to know we are lucky to have Charlie Kirk.
00:00:47.000 Charlie Kirk's running the White House, folks.
00:00:50.000 I want to thank Charlie.
00:00:51.000 He's an incredible guy.
00:00:52.000 His spirit, his love of this country, he's done an amazing job building one of the most powerful youth organizations ever created.
00:00:59.000 Turning point USA.
00:01:00.000 We will not embrace the ideas that have destroyed countries, destroyed lives, and we are going to fight for freedom on campuses across the country.
00:01:09.000 That's why we are here.
00:01:12.000 Brought to you by the Loan Experts I Trust, Andrew and Todd at Sierra Pacific Mortgage at andrewandTodd.com.
00:01:21.000 With us right now is Richard Barris, people's pundit, and does a great job.
00:01:27.000 Richard, welcome back to the program.
00:01:30.000 Hey, thanks for having me back, Charlie.
00:01:32.000 Always a pleasure to be here.
00:01:33.000 So, we're going to keep you for the full hour here.
00:01:35.000 We're going to go into great detail of what's happening into the midterm, coming in the midterms, the primaries that still have yet to happen.
00:01:43.000 We get so many questions about all of this.
00:01:46.000 So, let's just ask a 35,000-foot view question first.
00:01:49.000 Where does the generic ballot stand?
00:01:52.000 What do you think, all things being equal, are Republicans' chances of taking the House and the Senate going into November?
00:02:00.000 So, I think the generic ballot, Charlie, is between five and eight points, if I'm being a little bit generous.
00:02:07.000 And the reason I'm saying that is because even our national generic ballot was a big lead for a while.
00:02:14.000 It did tighten.
00:02:15.000 I'm starting to see some of the national numbers widen out a little bit again for Republicans, but district by district, we get a little bit more granular.
00:02:23.000 There are some districts that Republicans should be running away with if they had a big generic ballot lead that still are a little bit closer than you would expect.
00:02:33.000 That in the end, when we round the corner on Labor Day, that could all change, or maybe the national numbers are kind of leading.
00:02:41.000 And as we get, you know, a couple couple weeks into it, they'll look more rosy for Republicans. 0.98
00:02:48.000 But every time, and you know, we were talking about this the last time, every time Republicans look like they're going to start to stretch their legs and run away, they do something stupid and it bothers their base. 0.97
00:02:59.000 I mean, it's you can count on it, you can set your watch by it at this point. 0.92
00:03:04.000 Yeah, and it just seems as if they think they're going to win over voters in the middle, but the exact opposite is happening.
00:03:11.000 Post-Roe versus Wade, have we seen any tightening?
00:03:14.000 Has it been the boost that Democrats would have hoped it would be for them?
00:03:18.000 I don't think it's Roe at all.
00:03:20.000 What's happening on the ground?
00:03:21.000 I don't, you know, any tightening that we are seeing is not really from Roe.
00:03:25.000 It's about motivation to vote, likely voter models.
00:03:29.000 Uh, you have to get your base pump, but you also have to get those leaning independents, those independents that lean your way to vote disproportionately towards you, plus persuadable things, right?
00:03:39.000 Uh, issues that are a matter of persuadable voters.
00:03:42.000 There are just not that many out there anymore.
00:03:45.000 Um, so it makes all the difference when you can persuade a little bit and then you can motivate your side. 0.94
00:03:50.000 Democrats, uh, you know, this idea that abortion came into the picture and changed the dynamic is ridiculous.
00:03:58.000 We call them the new cycle Democrat.
00:04:00.000 You know, two months ago, they would have told you Ukraine is their number one issue in foreign policy now.
00:04:06.000 They care so much about a week before the Roe ruling, it was guns because of the mass shootings we saw the media pump up and actually helped to spark more of copycats.
00:04:18.000 But then a week later, Roe came out and abortion became the focus of these people.
00:04:25.000 The truth is, those who really are persuadable are not going to vote on Roe v. Wade.
00:04:29.000 They're going to vote on inflation.
00:04:31.000 They're going to vote on the economy, pocketbook issues, things that matter to them.
00:04:35.000 And that's why Republicans need to be careful and make sure that they're putting themselves in the position of being that opposition party.
00:04:42.000 If you're complaining about inflation, you cannot send billions upon billions upon billions of dollars to other countries.
00:04:49.000 If you're claiming that you're going to be a party that's looking out for the working class family, the working class voter in this country, you can't be sneaking in amnesties.
00:04:58.000 If you care about being the party of the Bill of Rights, you can't be sneaking in last-minute gun grabs.
00:05:04.000 So, you know, it's the old Ronald Reagan's, you know, used to say this all the time.
00:05:09.000 Don't paint in these pale pastels.
00:05:12.000 You need to be bold contrasts.
00:05:14.000 And they don't, they have a habit of kidding themselves.
00:05:17.000 It's really all on them.
00:05:19.000 What have we learned so far in state-by-state primaries as far as turnout and voter registration favoring Republicans or Democrats?
00:05:29.000 Yeah, without a doubt.
00:05:30.000 Republicans, all the metrics, they're owning them.
00:05:33.000 So you look at a state like North Carolina, which is always an interesting state to look at.
00:05:38.000 There's a lot of Democrats that are registered Democrats that will never vote at the presidential or senatorial level for the Democratic candidate, unless there's a candidate that's pretending to run as some kind of a moderate.
00:05:50.000 Republicans are thrashing Democrats in the registration race, but also in that primary, Republicans significantly turned out at higher rates than Democrats did.
00:06:01.000 So it's a really good sign for Ted Budd, right?
00:06:04.000 In an election that even if it's a good Republican election, it could still end up being pretty close.
00:06:09.000 Florida, Republicans are just, they're killing it.
00:06:12.000 That's a trend that began a while ago, without a doubt.
00:06:15.000 What do you attribute really exacerbated?
00:06:18.000 What do you attribute that?
00:06:19.000 Yeah.
00:06:20.000 If you read the politicos of the world, they'll tell you that those are all white people changing their registration.
00:06:25.000 The truth is that stopped happening around 2012, 2013, and it was kind of plateaued and flat for a while.
00:06:32.000 Donald Trump came in and he pushed those voters that are coming from the Northeast.
00:06:37.000 He pushed them into the Republican column.
00:06:40.000 And then also the newly naturalized citizens in South Florida. 1.00
00:06:44.000 I kind of kept my mouth shut with a grin on my face for three years because I could see these Venezuelan populations popping up. 1.00
00:06:52.000 And that's really what it came down to.
00:06:54.000 And they loved, you know, unlike the educated white voter in the Metro America, they loved Donald Trump.
00:07:00.000 They loved him.
00:07:01.000 They loved all the bombast, all the hypermasculinity.
00:07:05.000 They loved it.
00:07:06.000 So, yeah, I mean, hypermasculinity.
00:07:09.000 That's yep.
00:07:09.000 That's well said.
00:07:10.000 It's red meat to them.
00:07:11.000 It really is.
00:07:13.000 So, you know, Florida, I don't even think at this point anymore, Charlie, Florida is not really.
00:07:17.000 I mean, we call it a battleground state, but because it's so big, when you start winning certain voters by these margins or certain areas by the margins that Republicans are winning them by, then maybe three points are not so interesting a lot, but it is.
00:07:31.000 You know, because so, for example, we were reminiscing on a previous program about the RNC's autopsy report.
00:07:39.000 Do you remember that back in 2012?
00:07:41.000 Yes.
00:07:42.000 Yes.
00:07:42.000 Do you remember that whole thing?
00:07:44.000 Yeah.
00:07:44.000 And so we were reminiscing about Reince Priebus and all of that.
00:07:48.000 And I've always gotten along with Reins.
00:07:50.000 It's not a slight at his.
00:07:51.000 I would have done things differently than him, but that's okay.
00:07:54.000 And they said, we are going to lose Florida.
00:07:57.000 We're going to lose all these states.
00:07:58.000 Remember, Florida had Senator Nelson, Democrat?
00:08:03.000 Yes, Bill Nelson.
00:08:04.000 Had Obama won it in 12, right?
00:08:08.000 This was a blue state.
00:08:11.000 And so over 10 years, what is it from a policy perspective, though, Richard, that has now turned this into incredibly more Republican than Georgia?
00:08:24.000 Yeah, I'll tell you, that's a really good question.
00:08:24.000 Yeah.
00:08:27.000 The answer is really interesting.
00:08:29.000 So, and that the autopsy was like a million-dollar piece of toilet.
00:08:32.000 That's exactly total nonsense.
00:08:35.000 You know, that's it.
00:08:36.000 You know, the bottom line is when you're going to increase your appeal to working voters, family voters, it's not going to be isolated within one race, right?
00:08:48.000 And that's something they missed in that autopsy.
00:08:51.000 But honestly, in Florida, the interesting thing, Bill Nelson, he used to be thought of as a moderate.
00:08:58.000 So he could do well.
00:08:59.000 He was an astronaut.
00:09:01.000 Is that right?
00:09:01.000 He was an astronaut.
00:09:02.000 He was a hero.
00:09:04.000 Astronauts can be beaten.
00:09:05.000 Just ask Mark Kelly.
00:09:06.000 That's right.
00:09:07.000 Don't tell Mark Kelly, but yes.
00:09:09.000 And by the way, Mark Kelly's leading by roughly the same margins that Bill Nelson was leading Rick Scott by until we called Rick Scott the giant killer back then because that's he would always come in with his 40% favorability rating and yet topple these people that are supposedly unbeatable.
00:09:25.000 But he did it because he was actually really smart.
00:09:29.000 He played to the strengths that he saw Republicans had in a state like Florida.
00:09:33.000 Again, I think this is why you see there is a truth to it that it does really matter where you're coming from, whether it's state-to-state migration or it's international immigration, migration.
00:09:45.000 It does matter where you're coming from.
00:09:47.000 That's why Obama and others never really, they wanted to cancel the Wetfoot, Dryfoot policy, because they understood those were immigrants coming that would vote Republican.
00:09:57.000 Venezuela, they'd rather just topple that regime and not let anybody in from Venezuela because they know these are voters who have lived under the system of government that they are now advocating the United States become.
00:10:09.000 And this voter that I pulled in South Florida, he said, this is my first election.
00:10:16.000 I've been here for years, a couple of years now, but I'm allowed to vote.
00:10:19.000 I can't wait to vote for Donald Trump.
00:10:22.000 He said, you know, for those of us who have lived under it before, you know the empty promises when you hear them, you know, because we heard these same promises, free health care.
00:10:32.000 And what did it turn into?
00:10:34.000 It turned into brutal oppression.
00:10:35.000 And yeah, we're all equal.
00:10:37.000 We're all equal at the bottom underneath the shoe of the elite.
00:10:40.000 That's where we're all equally forced to suffer under.
00:10:43.000 And then, you know, the truth is CNN, all these other, they had struggled to understand this, all these pundits from these media outlets.
00:10:51.000 And the Florida poll really said it all. 0.51
00:10:53.000 When you looked at these voters, it wasn't that, you know, their husbands, which was some commentary on CNN, are being bullying their wives to vote for Donald Trump, these Hispanic women. 0.97
00:11:04.000 It's nonsense. 0.99
00:11:05.000 It was in the polling, Charlie.
00:11:07.000 If you look at the Miami poll, the South Florida poll from the University of Miami, those new voters simply agreed with Donald Trump on everything, including immigration, from culture to the role of government.
00:11:20.000 To machise.
00:11:21.000 That's right.
00:11:21.000 Yes.
00:11:22.000 Yep.
00:11:22.000 That's it.
00:11:23.000 He just, and they never saw those folks come.
00:11:26.000 I remember Nate Cohen from the New York Times.
00:11:28.000 I don't understand it, but I see it.
00:11:31.000 Trump's, his approval rating is really rather strong in Miami. 0.78
00:11:35.000 And I'm just giggling because there's 75,000 new Venezuelan voters there that you didn't see coming.
00:11:42.000 I love him.
00:11:42.000 It's over in Florida.
00:11:44.000 Florida's a DHS state.
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00:12:34.000 I want to ask you, Richard, because we're going to go around the horn here.
00:12:38.000 We'll kind of do this free form.
00:12:41.000 But I am perplexed, confused, frustrated, irritated.
00:12:46.000 Use other synonyms if you'd like with Georgia.
00:12:49.000 What the heck is going on in Georgia?
00:12:51.000 Why has Florida become more conservative and Georgia has not?
00:12:56.000 What's going on?
00:12:57.000 You know, Georgia is another interesting test case. 0.98
00:13:01.000 I mean, you had a lot of Republicans, Southern, good old boys, you know, the establishment who relied on the goodwill of Southern voters for years.
00:13:10.000 While they never understood that economics is politics, right?
00:13:16.000 So, if you let in a mini tinsel town into Atlanta, you know, the surrounding suburbs may become blue.
00:13:24.000 It depends what kind of industry those state governments chose to build up. 0.80
00:13:28.000 And the truth is, they built a professional class sector in that area of the state.
00:13:33.000 And then also, there's a growing Hispanic population, but it's still largely African-American.
00:13:39.000 Until Republicans start to make inroads with those voters, like they have with Hispanic voters, then you have to win two-thirds of the white vote.
00:13:46.000 And it's always going to be close.
00:13:49.000 You know, the bottom line is, though, I could tell you, you know, Charlie, I did poll Georgia, and I know that some people are seeing polls they don't like, but Donald Trump was outperforming every Republican, including Herschel Walker.
00:14:01.000 In the rematch now, the national average is about Trump plus 10.
00:14:06.000 You know, a month and a half ago when we polled it for CD Media, we had an 11-point lead for Donald Trump over Joe Biden.
00:14:12.000 And this was a state that was like Trump plus two.
00:14:17.000 You know, even in the polling that we were doing, we did think he was going to carry the state of Georgia.
00:14:22.000 I think he did carry the state.
00:14:24.000 I don't want to get you in trouble.
00:14:26.000 But, you know, the bottom line is it was never Trump plus 11, Trump plus 10.
00:14:31.000 So why is that?
00:14:32.000 Trump does better with minorities than Republicans do, than generic Republicans do.
00:14:37.000 And I know that makes the consultants in Washington, D.C., I know that makes their head explode when they hear that.
00:14:43.000 But the truth is, all of those people who said that the Republican brand would be damaged among minorities because of Donald Trump, they were completely wrong.
00:14:51.000 The truth is, those minority voters like Trump more than they like the party.
00:14:56.000 So this primary has always been so important for the Republican Party and their identity crisis because they had America first has to win this fight.
00:15:05.000 Yes, let's stay focused on the trenches are going to kill the party. 0.92
00:15:10.000 Let's stay focused.
00:15:11.000 Let's stay focused on Georgia.
00:15:13.000 What is the status of the Herschel Walker Warnock race? 0.99
00:15:19.000 You know, I think Walker still, he's got to write that shit, but I still do think he does have a lead. 0.97
00:15:24.000 The last time we spoke, that crappy Quinnipiac poll came out, which everyone had a heart attack over. 0.99
00:15:30.000 You know, I went through the numbers. 0.88
00:15:32.000 Their weight variables must be ridiculous, Charlie, because you can't be winning non-college whites, whites with a college degree, be double digits among black voters and be winning two-thirds of the overall white vote and be down 10 points in the state of Georgia. 0.85
00:15:48.000 It's basic arithmetic. 0.96
00:15:50.000 Even if black voters are 30% of the electorate, roughly 30%, it's not possible to do some basic math.
00:15:59.000 So after we did talk about that, even Data for Progress, they're a left-wing polling outfit and they tend to poll Democratic primaries better than they poll general elections.
00:16:09.000 They have a slight Democratic bias in general elections.
00:16:12.000 Even they had Walker ahead by two still.
00:16:15.000 So I was a little bit flabbergasted in this year.
00:16:18.000 Uh, where there's a Republican advantage. 0.78
00:16:20.000 But also, Walker had a lot of goodwill he did, and we've polled it multiple times and he had anywhere from a two to six point lead.
00:16:28.000 It just would have been really difficult.
00:16:30.000 It was hard for me to swallow even if he made a misstep, it was hard for me to swallow that that would result in some, you know, insurmountable Warnock lead.
00:16:38.000 That's crazy, especially since it does look like Republicans.
00:16:42.000 You know, Abrams is just not very electable.
00:16:45.000 She's not I.
00:16:46.000 I actually do think that a good Democratic candidate for governor could win that state, but Abrams scares too many people.
00:16:54.000 So think about it.
00:16:55.000 You have all these voters who are going to go and re-elect Brian Kemp.
00:16:58.000 They're, they're going to vote for Warnock too.
00:17:00.000 I just I, I don't see it Charlie, I don't.
00:17:03.000 I'd love to pull it again more recent, but I I, if I pegged it anywhere right now, i'd say it's about Walker plus one two, get your act together before you lose.
00:17:12.000 You know, i'm just being real.
00:17:14.000 Yeah, communications have been off in that campaign.
00:17:20.000 Hey everybody, Charlie Kirk here.
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00:18:23.000 Is any of the negative press affecting Herschel, you think?
00:18:26.000 I don't think any of the out-of-wedlock stuff does.
00:18:29.000 You know what could?
00:18:30.000 You know, comments about no exceptions.
00:18:35.000 If that's what you believe, then fine.
00:18:38.000 But you have to know how to have a conversation with your communications team before you decide to just drop that bomb on the overall electorate.
00:18:48.000 You have to deliver it in a way where you don't scare people, especially women in the suburbs who are hoping you just let them focus on inflation and not distract them from other issues.
00:19:00.000 It just seems like some mishaps that the problem with Walker is that it could start to add up until it really equals you're not ready for prime time.
00:19:10.000 And if that happens, it's going to be hard for him to dig himself out of that trench.
00:19:14.000 The best way to deal with this is to prepare yourself for the debate.
00:19:18.000 Do not pull a David Perdue and hide from the debate.
00:19:21.000 Do not pull Kelly Lauffler and hide from the debate.
00:19:25.000 Get people around that can prep you for it, which by the way, I offered to do myself.
00:19:30.000 You know, you can prep Walker for it and trot him out there.
00:19:34.000 He's a likable guy, Charlie.
00:19:36.000 Even if he doesn't seem like he's the sharpest on the minutiae of public policy, he's still super likable and people are going to give him the benefit of the doubt.
00:19:46.000 And Walker, I mean, Warnock can't afford to open up the personal attacks that we've seen against Walker.
00:19:53.000 I mean, because Walker could just turn on a debate stage, which he could use to advantage and say, you want to talk about personal lives and you want to bring sex into this as an issue.
00:20:02.000 I didn't, you know, I'm not the one who presided over the summer camp from hell, okay?
00:20:08.000 The children's summer camp from hell.
00:20:09.000 I mean, he could easily throw a lot of stuff in Warnock's face.
00:20:14.000 So do the debate.
00:20:16.000 Get ready and do the debate.
00:20:18.000 Yeah.
00:20:18.000 Put people at ease.
00:20:19.000 If you think Walker can pull it off, that's good.
00:20:21.000 It has to be properly managed.
00:20:23.000 I do.
00:20:24.000 But he's got to change.
00:20:25.000 My concern, though, is he's being micromanaged by GOP consultants.
00:20:28.000 It's a big concern.
00:20:29.000 He is.
00:20:30.000 Yeah.
00:20:31.000 Yeah.
00:20:31.000 I'll tell you, I'll just blow this up right now, Charlie.
00:20:33.000 I'll just tell you.
00:20:34.000 Someone I know is close with the campaign was venting to me the other day.
00:20:38.000 We were talking about this.
00:20:39.000 He sent an email to them saying, contact him.
00:20:43.000 He'll prep you for the debate.
00:20:44.000 The GOP consultants, they shut it down.
00:20:49.000 I offered to help and they shut it down.
00:20:52.000 They want to just hide him.
00:20:54.000 They want to hide him.
00:20:55.000 It's not good.
00:20:56.000 It's not good.
00:20:56.000 Look.
00:20:57.000 Yeah.
00:20:58.000 It didn't work for Purdue.
00:20:59.000 It didn't work for Kelly and it won't work for Herschel.
00:21:02.000 It won't.
00:21:02.000 That's not good.
00:21:03.000 Okay.
00:21:04.000 Well, we'll run out of time.
00:21:05.000 So let's talk about Pennsylvania.
00:21:07.000 Oz won the primary narrowly.
00:21:09.000 A lot of articles are being written saying, Oz is in trouble.
00:21:13.000 What's going on in Pennsylvania?
00:21:15.000 You know, I think that there is this push by Republican consultants who didn't have like their guys lost.
00:21:23.000 So for people who, you know, liked McCormick, Dave McCormick, for instance, you know, more power to you.
00:21:29.000 But the fact of the matter is, McConnell's hooks were in team McCormick.
00:21:33.000 All right.
00:21:35.000 And basically, I think a lot of these articles from Politico that that's Mitch McConnell's favorite place to run and leak stuff to get what he wants.
00:21:44.000 And I think he's lumping Oz, Herschel, and Blake Masters and JD Vance into this pot because he wants his consultants to take over.
00:21:52.000 The real issue with Oz over there is that you have Kathy Barnett and others who refuse to let this go.
00:21:58.000 I'm not, you know, I'm not paid to be nice to people.
00:22:01.000 I'm being honest here.
00:22:02.000 You were wrong.
00:22:04.000 You lost.
00:22:05.000 Move on.
00:22:05.000 It's not a house seat where somebody can be in there for two years and the pendulum swings and you can ounce them.
00:22:12.000 You're talking about a six-year tenure where they build up enormous war chests and a lot of IOUs.
00:22:18.000 So if it's going to make you feel better to give that seat to Fetterman, you're going to have to live with that.
00:22:23.000 I mean, at the end of the day, I think a lot of MAGA people are being played by Team McConnell.
00:22:28.000 I do.
00:22:29.000 Now, Oz is actually doing a pretty good job.
00:22:31.000 If you watch him on the ground, he's campaigning.
00:22:33.000 He's really good.
00:22:34.000 He's working.
00:22:35.000 It's just, he's working.
00:22:36.000 So, you know, and people were mad that he met with some of the Democrats and the state legislature.
00:22:42.000 He's trying to, he's trying to, there's nothing wrong with trying to reach across the aisle.
00:22:46.000 When you start caving, then that's it.
00:22:49.000 There's nothing wrong with saying, hey, here's my number.
00:22:51.000 Call me with any concerns you may have.
00:22:53.000 There's a problem happens when here's my number.
00:22:56.000 Call me when you need me to cave.
00:22:59.000 But that's not what's happening there.
00:23:01.000 In the end, he's got to consolidate his base.
00:23:04.000 There aren't that many independents in the state of Pennsylvania.
00:23:07.000 The only way that Oz can lose is if a big chunk of his Republican base creates an undervote or if they actually go for Fetterman.
00:23:15.000 So you really think Oz has a chance to win because people do.
00:23:18.000 Okay.
00:23:18.000 Yeah.
00:23:19.000 Okay.
00:23:19.000 Yeah, I do.
00:23:20.000 And, you know, Labor Day is going to be a very, you know, I remember when people were having heart attacks that Joni Ernst was never going to pull it off against Brady and Honor.
00:23:29.000 I know.
00:23:30.000 Yeah, with a ton.
00:23:31.000 Yeah.
00:23:31.000 And at the end of the day, Labor Day rolls around.
00:23:34.000 People start really looking at their choices.
00:23:36.000 We're in July, but there is structural base issues.
00:23:40.000 I suppose that the rule of thumb that I've learned is that if you have significant name ID, you get a little bit of a built-in summer advantage, but the gap is usually narrowed as other wave type implications are playing in gas prices, inflation, wokeism, southern border.
00:24:00.000 And kind of once you get parody on the television and you get parody in ads, and all of a sudden people really start to talk.
00:24:08.000 and Republicans are less likely to respond to polls, then you start to see it go in that direction.
00:24:12.000 And not to mention, and I'd love your thoughts on this, Richard, as we talk about next Arizona and the time we have remaining, which I know you've done a lot of polling on that I want you to report on, is this idea of the late and long primary.
00:24:24.000 So don't let me forget about that.
00:24:26.000 But first, tell us about what we're seeing in Arizona.
00:24:30.000 Yeah, we just put out, we just polled Arizona, the state of Arizona.
00:24:33.000 And I think, you know, I know I don't have a lot of time.
00:24:36.000 Stick with the Senate first here.
00:24:38.000 Blake Masters has now opened up a nice lead about just under 11 points, you know, where it is a more crowded race than the governor.
00:24:47.000 There are some people that withdrew in the governor, but their name will still appear on the ballots.
00:24:51.000 So you should take that in mind.
00:24:53.000 Yep, Matt Salmon.
00:24:54.000 He endorsed Robson, Robeson, however you say it.
00:24:57.000 But the bottom line is that I think that Masters and Lake are going to be very hard to catch at this point, especially Lake.
00:25:04.000 I mean, we did see Robson, you know, consolidate some of those more establishment figures.
00:25:10.000 They got the Pence endorsement.
00:25:12.000 We waited in the field to see if it would help.
00:25:14.000 It didn't.
00:25:15.000 Lake leads with everyone who's most likely to vote, most certain to vote, most enthusiastic to vote.
00:25:20.000 Her and Blake Masters both.
00:25:23.000 I want to put that up.
00:25:24.000 238.
00:25:25.000 Keep going.
00:25:25.000 We're going to put the graphic on.
00:25:27.000 Yeah.
00:25:27.000 Yeah, Greg.
00:25:28.000 And we have the Senate one as well.
00:25:29.000 And you basically, you know, you can see these leads here by county, Charlie.
00:25:34.000 I mean, if you're leading in Maricopa, it's 60% of the vote in the state.
00:25:38.000 The second one, which is Pima County, that's about, you know, anywhere between 14 and 237 is that.
00:25:43.000 We have it about.
00:25:44.000 Yep.
00:25:44.000 We have it about at 16%.
00:25:46.000 And then all the other counties combined making up basically the lion's share of the world vote.
00:25:52.000 There's just no way at that point to catch somebody when they're winning by these kind of.
00:25:57.000 So are you here to say that, I mean, so you really believe this race is Kerry Lake's for the governor's race?
00:26:03.000 I do.
00:26:04.000 I do.
00:26:05.000 And I will say this, that the late breakers, the people that were kind of hanging back, that decided in the last day, two days we interviewed, they went for Kerry Lake pretty hard.
00:26:16.000 I didn't even know about the situation on the ground, but the fundraising attack Kerry Lake used against Robson was very effective.
00:26:23.000 This idea that there are older people being tricked through text messages, give to the wall, stop Joe Biden here.
00:26:30.000 And what it turns into is a reoccurring donation to a candidate that had legs.
00:26:35.000 And voters were telling us during interviews, I was going to vote against Kerry Lake, but I don't like that.
00:26:40.000 That's a scummy thing you can do.
00:26:42.000 And I began to want, somebody looked this up and what are they talking about?
00:26:46.000 And then I found out it was an attack by Lake.
00:26:49.000 Just so happened to be true.
00:26:50.000 But when voters are parroting that stuff to you, when you're polling, it has legs.
00:26:55.000 And I think that no Mike Pence endorsement in the world, the Doug Ducey endorsement is going to help her at this point.
00:27:02.000 It's just a much easier path for Kerry Lake. 0.97
00:27:04.000 Much easier.
00:27:05.000 So let's say Kerry Lake and Blake Masters go into the general.
00:27:08.000 Kerry Lake, I think, actually has an easier general election. 1.00
00:27:12.000 Not easy, but easier.
00:27:14.000 Let's start there.
00:27:15.000 Let's say it is nominee Carrie Lake against Katie Hobbs.
00:27:21.000 What does that look like?
00:27:22.000 Let me break everybody's brains right now.
00:27:26.000 We also did that.
00:27:27.000 And it's not because we were being unfair to the other candidates.
00:27:30.000 The fact of the matter is those two candidates have enormous leads.
00:27:34.000 So, when budget for media is an issue, you tell them what you think is right, which is just use the frontrunners and let's see how they're doing against the likely Democrats.
00:27:43.000 You're 100% correct.
00:27:45.000 Kerry Lake is running stronger against Katie Hobbs than Blake Masters is running against Mark Kelly.
00:27:52.000 That being said, give us the numbers.
00:27:53.000 Arizona's, yeah, Arizona's a tricky state to poll.
00:27:57.000 And I think most people will end up underestimating Blake Masters because of the support he has among a certain group of men that most Republicans, other than Donald Trump, can't get.
00:28:08.000 And Joe Rogan.
00:28:10.000 Blake Masters.
00:28:10.000 Joe Rogan men.
00:28:11.000 That's exactly right.
00:28:12.000 It's a great way to characterize them.
00:28:15.000 I never thought of that.
00:28:16.000 I just echoed the demographics.
00:28:17.000 Joe Rogan men.
00:28:18.000 You could steal it.
00:28:19.000 Yeah.
00:28:19.000 Blake Masters will dominate Joe Rogan men.
00:28:22.000 Yeah.
00:28:22.000 He's trailing Mark Kelly a little bit, but Kelly is not near 50%.
00:28:26.000 What's a little bit five to six or two to three?
00:28:28.000 What are we looking at?
00:28:29.000 Three to five.
00:28:30.000 Okay, that's manageable.
00:28:31.000 It's close, a lot closer.
00:28:32.000 It is manageable.
00:28:33.000 And Kerry Lake has a lead.
00:28:35.000 Kerry Lake is right now, she's going to beat Hobbs.
00:28:38.000 You know what's funny?
00:28:39.000 We polled the primary for governor as well.
00:28:42.000 For some reason, Hobbes is in the 50s, even though only you have Mark Lopez running against her.
00:28:50.000 And then you have Aaron Lieberman, who withdrew.
00:28:53.000 Yet some of these people get about 15% who say they're going for Lopez, another 5% or so saying, I'll still vote for Lieberman.
00:29:01.000 She's in the 50s with a huge undecided.
00:29:04.000 Democratic voters told us they're not thrilled with the Secretary of State.
00:29:08.000 They're just that this is the same thing.
00:29:09.000 She's been scandal ridden. 0.96
00:29:11.000 So do you think Masters can pull it off against Kelly for three reasons?
00:29:15.000 I think he could do better with East Valley LDS voters that Trump did not resonate with, Mormon voters and Mesa and Chandler and Gilbert.
00:29:23.000 I think he can get Joe Rogan men out to vote.
00:29:26.000 And I don't think he turns off Paradise Valley Scottsdale soccer moms at all.
00:29:31.000 I think he could actually be at parity with moms that are seeing the wokeism in schools, that are seeing the mat, that's all the mask mandates, but they just don't like Trump.
00:29:40.000 Blake Masters is an easier sell.
00:29:43.000 Would you agree with that?
00:29:45.000 Yeah, I do.
00:29:46.000 He keeps those men that Trump had a difficult time.
00:29:49.000 I mean, I had a great time winning, but then he doesn't turn off, especially when we get again to Labor Day.
00:29:54.000 And Blake Masters is making this a conversation about inflation, wokeism.
00:29:59.000 You know, Mark Kelly never really had to defend himself, the border.
00:30:03.000 Martha McSally, you know, was just not a great candidate. 1.00
00:30:07.000 And yet she did.
00:30:08.000 She almost beat.
00:30:09.000 There are some of those McCain Republicans left who tell us they want to vote for Mark Kelly, whereas about 6.5% of Republicans say they'll vote for Mark Kelly, but he needs to win those independents by the margin that Lake is winning them.
00:30:24.000 And the reason I say this is because as we saw those interviews with those men, you could see the governor's race not really moving.
00:30:32.000 What was changing was how big Masters' lead was going in the Senate primary.
00:30:37.000 They bumped him to double digits.
00:30:39.000 Without them, he'd be at like a five to seven point lead.
00:30:43.000 And he'd be honestly, he'd be down to Mark Kelly by 6.7 points or more.
00:30:48.000 They're the ones keeping it close.
00:30:50.000 So again, this is kind of funny, Charlie, because these people told us that Kerry Lake could not win a gubernatorial election.
00:30:59.000 She is by far the strongest gubernatorial candidate.
00:31:01.000 That's so insulting.
00:31:04.000 It's almost every time these consultants in DC make this proclamation, they end up being not just wrong, but completely the opposite of the truth.
00:31:13.000 So just to make sure I understand, your polling shows Kerry Lake as the most likely to defeat Katie Hobbs. 0.97
00:31:22.000 I've been told the exact opposite by every Republican consultant here in Arizona.
00:31:28.000 Without a doubt, Robeson is not going to get those men.
00:31:31.000 They're not going to run out and vote for her.
00:31:33.000 And by the way, we went over this back in 2020.
00:31:37.000 And, you know, they're all of those Arizona consultants and all of those DC consultants, and God love them.
00:31:43.000 But, you know, we were getting Republican chairs and others from Arizona saying, is this what your polling is showing?
00:31:51.000 And they were showing McSally within two, three points, within striking distance.
00:31:55.000 You had Donald Trump down to Biden by eight.
00:31:58.000 And I'm, and, you know, I came back and I would say, no, we had the complete opposite.
00:32:02.000 Donald Trump is performing about three to five points better than Martha McSally.
00:32:06.000 And here is why the Joe Rogan mail.
00:32:10.000 There are more of them when you can get them to come out.
00:32:14.000 And by the way, they're the ones most angry right now in the state of Arizona.
00:32:17.000 They are the most pissed off and motivated voter.
00:32:20.000 They're just hard to reach.
00:32:21.000 You're not going to reach them with a live caller interview.
00:32:24.000 All right, media, that's not going to happen.
00:32:26.000 That's why you got Biden plus eight.
00:32:28.000 So in closing here, Richard, I want to ask you, what are just some other just kind of surprise races you got your eyes on?
00:32:34.000 Can we flip a Washington?
00:32:36.000 Can we flip a Vermont?
00:32:37.000 You know, what are you looking at where you're usually good at pinpointing this? 0.92
00:32:42.000 Show me a little subterranean sneaky race here. 1.00
00:32:45.000 What do we got? 1.00
00:32:46.000 You know, even Virginia 10, for instance, right?
00:32:50.000 That's, you know, everyone's looking at Virginia 7, which is Abigail Spanberger, Spangler, however, you say it, the former CIA, you know, employee who took over Bratzy, Dave Bratzy.
00:33:03.000 Redistricting made both of those districts a little bit more difficult.
00:33:07.000 But I'm telling you, when we were polling the state of Virginia, seven and 10 both looked like they were going to go.
00:33:13.000 And seven was significantly leading Republican.
00:33:17.000 10 was about even.
00:33:19.000 So 10 should not be even in the state of Virginia.
00:33:22.000 That's about a 10 to 12 point shift away from what we saw in 2020.
00:33:26.000 But it's believable because that's exactly how Machumpin shifted the entire state. 0.88
00:33:31.000 So you have a race like that that you need to keep an eye on.
00:33:34.000 Republicans have a great, I don't want to butcher his name, but they have a great candidate who won the primary out there.
00:33:39.000 And he's exactly the kind of candidate Republicans would need to take that.
00:33:44.000 There are there, it has been some polling in states like Oregon, you know, where it looks close.
00:33:50.000 I think O'Day could surprise people in Colorado.
00:33:54.000 I was really impressed, not just with the vote total.
00:33:57.000 I'm talking about the coalitions that came out and supported O'Day in the state of Colorado, a state that is like the wild west with election integrity.
00:34:05.000 You know, it's just a total free-for-all out there.
00:34:08.000 But yeah, I think O'Day could be a sleeper seat, you know, where if Republicans were to lose a Pennsylvania or lose a Georgia, even if they had a good night, they could make it up by picking up something like Oregon or Colorado, something shocking.
00:34:22.000 You know, so Washington, I always thought was always going to be a little bit out of reach, but we'll see.
00:34:28.000 You know, even by the way, New Hampshire is too close for Democrats, too close.
00:34:32.000 Richard Barris, everybody, People's Pundit, big data polls.
00:34:35.000 God bless you, Richard.
00:34:36.000 We'll have you back on Zoom.
00:34:37.000 We never have enough time.
00:34:38.000 I have more questions.
00:34:39.000 That'll be for next time.
00:34:39.000 Thanks so much.
00:34:41.000 All the best.
00:34:44.000 Thank you so much for listening, everybody.
00:34:46.000 Email me your thoughts as always, freedom at charliekirk.com.
00:34:48.000 Thanks so much for listening.
00:34:50.000 God bless.
00:34:53.000 For more on many of these stories and news you can trust, go to CharlieKirk. com.