The Charlie Kirk Show - Biden's Missing Post-SOTU Bump

00:00:00.000 Hey, everybody.

00:00:00.000 Did Biden get a post-state of the union bump?

00:00:04.000 What's happening in Georgia and why on earth is Ken Buck resigning?

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00:01:27.000 Joining us now is Tom Bettin, co-founder and president of Real Clear Politics.

00:01:31.000 Tom, thank you for taking the time.

00:01:33.000 Tom, my first question is, did we see a State of the Union polling bump for Joe Biden?

00:01:39.000 No, not yet.

00:01:41.000 And again, we have, in our average, we've got, you know, eight or nine polls, and only three or four of those have been taken fully after the State of the Union.

00:01:50.000 But the ones that have been so far, when you look at both the general election head-to-head numbers between Trump and Biden, but also the ones that judge Biden's job approval rating, not much there.

00:02:04.000 In fact, in the head-to-head numbers, he's actually gotten worse.

00:02:07.000 Trump's lead has actually grown in these last polls.

00:02:11.000 If you compare, if you take a look at the polls and so make them apples to apples comparison, he's actually lost a little ground.

00:02:18.000 So no, no bump.

00:02:20.000 And look, you know, that's not terribly surprising in an environment where we're as politicized as we have been.

00:02:25.000 I don't know that Donald Trump got a ton of bumps out of the state of unions these days.

00:02:30.000 You know, they don't move the needle like they used to.

00:02:33.000 But certainly it's not good news for Biden that in some cases he's actually gone backwards.

00:02:38.000 So Tom, just from an analytical perspective, what did you make of his approach, his tone?

00:02:44.000 Obviously, more towards the Democrat base.

00:02:47.000 Just kind of riff on what did you make of that?

00:02:50.000 I found it interesting, telling, and illuminating that he didn't take a persuasive approach nearly at all.

00:02:58.000 And look, this has been, I think, his strategy from the beginning, and it's only gotten worse over time.

00:03:04.000 I mean, he's gotten himself into a position now, Biden has, where he's so dependent on activating the progressive left wing of his base that it's really hard for him to go to the middle on any of these issues.

00:03:16.000 I mean, you think about abortion, you think about immigration, you know, to do anything that, you know, he's taken some, he's taken some steps in that direction, but for every step he takes in that direction, he really does sort of, you know, lose some folks from the left.

00:03:33.000 And this is going to be an election where, and you see this in the numbers, Republicans have a pretty sizable enthusiasm advantage.

00:03:42.000 And Trump supporters are, there's a poll out in Suffolk, USA Today, Suffolk poll just out from this morning.

00:03:49.000 Trump's voters are much more committed to voting for him than voting against Biden.

00:03:53.000 Biden's voters are almost evenly split.

00:03:57.000 A lot of them, 40%, say that the reason they're voting for Biden is not because they like Joe Biden.

00:04:02.000 It's because they want to vote against President Trump.

00:04:05.000 So he can't afford to really lose anybody.

00:04:07.000 He's really got to keep his base activated.

00:04:09.000 And I think that's what you saw from him last week.

00:04:13.000 So kind of going off of that, how serious is this uncommitted movement against Biden?

00:04:19.000 Do you think that's going to manifest?

00:04:21.000 It seems as if everything he's trying to do is trying to shore up the base leakage that he is experiencing.

00:04:28.000 Yeah, I agree.

00:04:29.000 It's a problem, particularly in a place like Michigan, where you saw the Palestinian American community, the mayor of Dearborn, Rashida Tlaib, organized this protest vote that got more than 100,000, closer to 150,000 votes in that primary.

00:04:45.000 It's happening in some of these other states, not to the same degree.

00:04:47.000 And, you know, so obviously those are not people who are going to turn around and vote for Donald Trump in November, but how many of them are going to stay home?

00:04:54.000 Is it 5%?

00:04:55.000 Is it 10%?

00:04:56.000 And in a state that could be decided by 10, 15, 20,000 votes, it's obviously a concern.

00:05:04.000 And so they have to be worried about that.

00:05:06.000 On the other hand, I think the more legitimate or the bigger concern, if you will, for Biden is a third-party candidacy.

00:05:12.000 You've got RFK Jr. making the ballot in places like Arizona and Georgia.

00:05:17.000 And when you add extra candidates to the mix, you get to a three-way race, a five-way race.

00:05:23.000 Trump's lead actually grows bigger because, again, as I just mentioned, you know, Trump supporters are pretty committed.

00:05:28.000 I mean, Trump loses some, but he's not losing as much.

00:05:31.000 He's not bleeding as much support to RFK Jr. or Cornell West or Jill Stein as Biden is.

00:05:38.000 And so that's going to be a further complicating factor for President Biden is holding both those, right?

00:05:46.000 He can't lose these uncommitted, these progressives who are protesting and also can't afford to lose any support to any of the third-party candidates that are going to be on the ballot in some of these critical states.

00:05:57.000 The way forward, I think, is quite interesting for both campaigns and also with these third-party candidates.

00:06:02.000 Explain the kind of Black, Latino, Asian American, Hispanic voter changes.

00:06:09.000 It seems as if Donald Trump is making record gains in the Hispanic community and Joe Biden is not enjoying the lead that Democrats once did.

00:06:17.000 Yeah, so Axios had a piece this morning, which we ran on the front page of Road Claire Politics, which got picked up by some folks, including, I think, the RNC and some others.

00:06:28.000 And basically that, you know, the title of it is Democrats have a massive vulnerability by losing minority voters, blacks and Hispanics, obviously.

00:06:38.000 And this has always been true.

00:06:40.000 It's just never, and it's been sort of moving over time.

00:06:43.000 You've seen sort of punctuation points, you know, George W. Bush in, you know, 2000 with Hispanic voters, for example.

00:06:53.000 But we've also seen this movement over the last couple of cycles with Donald Trump, changing the party basically to a working class party.

00:07:01.000 And he's picking up some of these voters.

00:07:04.000 Again, it's less, I would say it's less race-based than it is class-based, but he's pulling in particularly Hispanic and African-American men, but also folks from all across the spectrum based on his policies, sort of the sort of economic populism.

00:07:23.000 And then Joe Biden's fighting to hang on to those folks.

00:07:25.000 But in this environment with inflation and with some of the policies that he's been pursuing, that leakage has continued.

00:07:32.000 And so what Axios wrote was actually based on a Gallup study that was done earlier in the year in early February that showed that over the course of the last 25 years, basically, that the Democrats' share of the Hispanic vote and the African-American vote have dropped by about 20 percentage points.

00:07:52.000 And Democrats have managed to offset some of that by winning college-educated voters in suburbs, postdoc degrees, et cetera.

00:08:02.000 But the parties have done this pretty remarkable shift just in the last few cycles, and it has hurt the Democrats.

00:08:09.000 And again, in this kind of environment, the white vote is sort of going down over time as its share of the electorate.

00:08:16.000 And Republicans have certainly been winning a large percentage of that.

00:08:20.000 But for Democrats, it has always been about having 95% of the African-American vote locked in in these states, winning Hispanics by 40 or 50 points in a lot of these states.

00:08:30.000 And that's simply not where they're at.

00:08:33.000 And, you know, if they don't manage, if they lose even 5% or 10% in those categories, it makes it really, really tough for them to compete in swing states.

00:08:44.000 Are they going to still win California, New York?

00:08:46.000 Of course.

00:08:46.000 But are they going to win Arizona?

00:08:47.000 Are they going to win Georgia?

00:08:48.000 Are they going to win some of these other battleground states?

00:08:51.000 It's going to make it really, really tough for their electoral majority.

00:08:57.000 Okay, Kirk fans, I need you to stop and pay attention to this.

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00:10:51.000 Yeah, and so it seems as if they're going all in.

00:10:54.000 You know, the Democrats are Joe Biden on Wisconsin, on Michigan.

00:10:58.000 If you had to say, what was if one of the great advantages that Joe Biden has, what would you think that is right now?

00:11:03.000 The incumbency, they're going to run on the abortion issue.

00:11:07.000 Is this turning out to be an abortion referendum election?

00:11:11.000 You know, it's not reflected in the polls, but again, it wasn't reflected.

00:11:15.000 You go back and look at the pre-election polls in 2022, and abortion was well down the list.

00:11:21.000 Now, again, you look at the partisan splits for Democrats, it was higher, in some cases, pretty high, and it certainly motivated their base.

00:11:28.000 But overall, and among Independents and Republicans, it was well down the list.

00:11:33.000 So I think it's too early to say exactly how, because again, I'll mention the USAA Today Suffolk poll.

00:11:41.000 Number one issue was inflation in the economy, 29%.

00:11:44.000 Abortion was at 10%.

00:11:47.000 you know, three times less in terms of the public's view of that as an important issue.

00:11:53.000 But again, you know, we'll have we'll have abortion referenda on this on the ballot in certain states, in Arizona, for example, and other places.

00:12:02.000 And I think that will help juice Democratic turnout for sure.

00:12:07.000 So, but again, that's going to be complicated by, you know, where's the economy?

00:12:13.000 Where is inflation?

00:12:14.000 I mean, this is what's really what's going on with immigration. 0.56

00:12:19.000 Because these are issues that in that USA Day Suffolk poll, immigration was number two.

00:12:24.000 In some polls that have come out recently, it's been the top issue.

00:12:28.000 So because of Lake and Riley, because it's been in the news, you know, Biden and Trump were just at the border last week or last.

00:12:35.000 So immigration has been a top of mind issue.

00:12:38.000 Is it going to continue that way?

00:12:40.000 Hard to say.

00:12:40.000 We'll have to see, but certainly that's an issue that works in the Republicans' favor, works in Donald Trump's favor, not just in southern states, but in places in states like you mentioned up in the Rust Belt.

00:12:52.000 The Real Clear Politics Average is very instructive here.

00:12:55.000 Just briefly, how are you factoring in and making sure you get accurate polling for the RFK factor, the third party factor that could be very difficult to poll, very difficult to pinpoint, very tough to predict?

00:13:08.000 Well, listen, I mean, you know, we are aggregating all the various pollsters.

00:13:12.000 And so, you know, we typically, not everybody's polling three-way races and not everybody's polling five-way race.

00:13:19.000 Most pollsters are still doing a head-to-head, but certainly when we have that data, we're aggregating.

00:13:25.000 So you can look at we have a two-way page, a three-way page, and a five-way page at the national level.

00:13:30.000 And then, again, where RFK has made the ballot, you can get some state-level data on that as well.

00:13:37.000 I think Emerson just released a poll in Arizona showing a two-way race and a three-way race there.

00:13:42.000 So it's a little more sparse, though.

00:13:44.000 And as you mentioned, it gets a little bit dicier in terms of what's the margin of error, how accurate is this going to be.

00:13:52.000 And then, you know, traditionally, third-party candidates fall into that trap where they'll poll pretty well up until the time, you know, that voters go into the booth and decide, oh, you know, do I want to, quote unquote, waste my vote on someone who I know doesn't have a chance to win if they're 10% or 15% or whatever.

00:14:15.000 So RFK may end up suffering something like that, but that's not something the polls can foresee.

00:14:21.000 I mean, they just have to take in what voters are telling them before they go into the voting booth.

00:14:24.000 And then, you know, when they get in the booth, they may come out on the other side and the results may be strikingly different.

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00:15:12.000 So Tom, let me ask you, if Donald Trump were to get the label slapped on him as convicted felon, how, if at all, will that move, just based on your polling and looking at issue-based polling, will that be a mover of public sentiment and political outcomes?

00:15:31.000 So there is some, I think the conventional wisdom is, and there is some data that suggests that if he is convicted of any of the charges, that that would be a deal breaker for some folks who are currently supporting him.

00:15:46.000 I personally am skeptical of that, just because certainly on the Republican side, you know, most Republican voters already see most of these charges overwhelmingly as being politically motivated.

00:16:00.000 And obviously, Democrats are on the other side.

00:16:02.000 So we're really talking about independence to a certain degree.

00:16:06.000 And I just don't know that a lot of this stuff is already, I think, baked into, because it's been in the news every single day for months now, that it's baked into the calculus of a lot of these voters when they get asked this question.

00:16:20.000 So I'm skeptical that it would be a game changer, but we'd actually have to wait and see.

00:16:26.000 I mean, I think there is some data that suggests that Trump would be hurt by that.

00:16:31.000 We'll have to see if that actually pans out, if and when any of these convictions happen.

00:16:36.000 So, Tom, you know, we're heading towards nomination season.

00:16:40.000 Do you have any idea or indication of who Trump picks as the vice president?

00:16:45.000 He says it doesn't matter.

00:16:47.000 I think it could actually matter more than ever.

00:16:49.000 This is kind of win or lose for Donald Trump.

00:16:52.000 This is kind of who he is designating as the future of his movement.

00:16:57.000 There's questions about whether or not he's going to go to jail or what that looks like.

00:17:02.000 And I certainly hope not.

00:17:04.000 How should we think about this awfully consequential vice presidential selection?

00:17:10.000 Yeah, you can certainly make the argument.

00:17:11.000 Historically, it hasn't mattered, right?

00:17:13.000 People vote for the top of the ticket.

00:17:15.000 They don't really vote for whoever's down below.

00:17:20.000 However, I mean, you do have a race with the two oldest men ever to run against each other.

00:17:26.000 And certainly when you look at, you know, Biden's side, he's got Kamala there, and that represents its own thing.

00:17:36.000 For Trump's, it's a similar thing.

00:17:38.000 It's not just the jail thing.

00:17:39.000 He's 77.

00:17:40.000 I mean, he is no spring chicken, even when you look at the actuarial tables.

00:17:45.000 And so who, as you mentioned, who is he going to pick that can potentially step in and continue, if it were to come to that, his policies and executing his vision, his agenda, and carrying forward that sort of, you know, the MAGA torch.

00:18:03.000 There's been some polling on this.

00:18:05.000 Folks, you know, his supporters like Vivek.

00:18:09.000 They like, you know, Ron DeSantis' name has been bandied about out there.

00:18:14.000 You know, it's hard to say who he's going to choose.

00:18:19.000 Even people, even as, you know, as you know, Charlie, I mean, Trump does what Trump wants to do and he does it when he wants to do it.

00:18:25.000 And sometimes the folks who are even closest around him don't know until he actually makes the decision.

00:18:29.000 Yeah, I think he's just playing around with a lot of names right now.

00:18:32.000 Because if you talk to reporters, they say, oh, I know for certain or this.

00:18:37.000 I don't think the decision hasn't been made, Tom.

00:18:40.000 Yeah.

00:18:41.000 I mean, didn't he say that he'd made it?

00:18:43.000 Even that, I don't believe.

00:18:44.000 I think that might be for effect.

00:18:46.000 So it's also one of these things, too.

00:18:49.000 You know, people are saying, well, you got to look very hard at women because they'll check a box or something and Trump needs something.

00:18:56.000 I don't know that Trump thinks like that.

00:18:57.000 I don't know that he is thinking of that strategically about this.

00:19:03.000 He's going to pick someone that I think he likes, that he trusts, that is going to be loyal to him, loyal to his agenda.

00:19:10.000 But I'm not sure he's going to go with a woman just because he thinks that might help him electorally.

00:19:15.000 He could, and certainly there are some good choices out there for him if he were to go that direction.

00:19:19.000 But I just don't know that he thinks about it in the same way that most traditional politicians think about it.

00:19:28.000 I think that's smart.

00:19:28.000 Tom, everyone should check out Real Clear Politics.

00:19:31.000 It's terrific.

00:19:33.000 I go there every day.

00:19:33.000 Tom, thanks so much.

00:19:34.000 Thanks, Charlie.

00:19:35.000 Appreciate it.

00:19:38.000 Thanks so much for listening.

00:19:39.000 Everybody, email us as always, freedom at charliekirk.com.

00:19:42.000 Thanks so much for listening and God bless.

00:19:46.000 For more on many of these stories and news you can trust, go to CharlieKirk. com.

The Charlie Kirk Show - March 13, 2024

Biden's Missing Post-SOTU Bump

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