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00:01:41.000And again, we have, in our average, we've got, you know, eight or nine polls, and only three or four of those have been taken fully after the State of the Union.
00:01:50.000But the ones that have been so far, when you look at both the general election head-to-head numbers between Trump and Biden, but also the ones that judge Biden's job approval rating, not much there.
00:02:04.000In fact, in the head-to-head numbers, he's actually gotten worse.
00:02:07.000Trump's lead has actually grown in these last polls.
00:02:11.000If you compare, if you take a look at the polls and so make them apples to apples comparison, he's actually lost a little ground.
00:02:20.000And look, you know, that's not terribly surprising in an environment where we're as politicized as we have been.
00:02:25.000I don't know that Donald Trump got a ton of bumps out of the state of unions these days.
00:02:30.000You know, they don't move the needle like they used to.
00:02:33.000But certainly it's not good news for Biden that in some cases he's actually gone backwards.
00:02:38.000So Tom, just from an analytical perspective, what did you make of his approach, his tone?
00:02:44.000Obviously, more towards the Democrat base.
00:02:47.000Just kind of riff on what did you make of that?
00:02:50.000I found it interesting, telling, and illuminating that he didn't take a persuasive approach nearly at all.
00:02:58.000And look, this has been, I think, his strategy from the beginning, and it's only gotten worse over time.
00:03:04.000I mean, he's gotten himself into a position now, Biden has, where he's so dependent on activating the progressive left wing of his base that it's really hard for him to go to the middle on any of these issues.
00:03:16.000I mean, you think about abortion, you think about immigration, you know, to do anything that, you know, he's taken some, he's taken some steps in that direction, but for every step he takes in that direction, he really does sort of, you know, lose some folks from the left.
00:03:33.000And this is going to be an election where, and you see this in the numbers, Republicans have a pretty sizable enthusiasm advantage.
00:03:42.000And Trump supporters are, there's a poll out in Suffolk, USA Today, Suffolk poll just out from this morning.
00:03:49.000Trump's voters are much more committed to voting for him than voting against Biden.
00:03:53.000Biden's voters are almost evenly split.
00:03:57.000A lot of them, 40%, say that the reason they're voting for Biden is not because they like Joe Biden.
00:04:02.000It's because they want to vote against President Trump.
00:04:05.000So he can't afford to really lose anybody.
00:04:07.000He's really got to keep his base activated.
00:04:09.000And I think that's what you saw from him last week.
00:04:13.000So kind of going off of that, how serious is this uncommitted movement against Biden?
00:04:19.000Do you think that's going to manifest?
00:04:21.000It seems as if everything he's trying to do is trying to shore up the base leakage that he is experiencing.
00:04:29.000It's a problem, particularly in a place like Michigan, where you saw the Palestinian American community, the mayor of Dearborn, Rashida Tlaib, organized this protest vote that got more than 100,000, closer to 150,000 votes in that primary.
00:04:45.000It's happening in some of these other states, not to the same degree.
00:04:47.000And, you know, so obviously those are not people who are going to turn around and vote for Donald Trump in November, but how many of them are going to stay home?
00:04:56.000And in a state that could be decided by 10, 15, 20,000 votes, it's obviously a concern.
00:05:04.000And so they have to be worried about that.
00:05:06.000On the other hand, I think the more legitimate or the bigger concern, if you will, for Biden is a third-party candidacy.
00:05:12.000You've got RFK Jr. making the ballot in places like Arizona and Georgia.
00:05:17.000And when you add extra candidates to the mix, you get to a three-way race, a five-way race.
00:05:23.000Trump's lead actually grows bigger because, again, as I just mentioned, you know, Trump supporters are pretty committed.
00:05:28.000I mean, Trump loses some, but he's not losing as much.
00:05:31.000He's not bleeding as much support to RFK Jr. or Cornell West or Jill Stein as Biden is.
00:05:38.000And so that's going to be a further complicating factor for President Biden is holding both those, right?
00:05:46.000He can't lose these uncommitted, these progressives who are protesting and also can't afford to lose any support to any of the third-party candidates that are going to be on the ballot in some of these critical states.
00:05:57.000The way forward, I think, is quite interesting for both campaigns and also with these third-party candidates.
00:06:02.000Explain the kind of Black, Latino, Asian American, Hispanic voter changes.
00:06:09.000It seems as if Donald Trump is making record gains in the Hispanic community and Joe Biden is not enjoying the lead that Democrats once did.
00:06:17.000Yeah, so Axios had a piece this morning, which we ran on the front page of Road Claire Politics, which got picked up by some folks, including, I think, the RNC and some others.
00:06:28.000And basically that, you know, the title of it is Democrats have a massive vulnerability by losing minority voters, blacks and Hispanics, obviously.
00:06:40.000It's just never, and it's been sort of moving over time.
00:06:43.000You've seen sort of punctuation points, you know, George W. Bush in, you know, 2000 with Hispanic voters, for example.
00:06:53.000But we've also seen this movement over the last couple of cycles with Donald Trump, changing the party basically to a working class party.
00:07:01.000And he's picking up some of these voters.
00:07:04.000Again, it's less, I would say it's less race-based than it is class-based, but he's pulling in particularly Hispanic and African-American men, but also folks from all across the spectrum based on his policies, sort of the sort of economic populism.
00:07:23.000And then Joe Biden's fighting to hang on to those folks.
00:07:25.000But in this environment with inflation and with some of the policies that he's been pursuing, that leakage has continued.
00:07:32.000And so what Axios wrote was actually based on a Gallup study that was done earlier in the year in early February that showed that over the course of the last 25 years, basically, that the Democrats' share of the Hispanic vote and the African-American vote have dropped by about 20 percentage points.
00:07:52.000And Democrats have managed to offset some of that by winning college-educated voters in suburbs, postdoc degrees, et cetera.
00:08:02.000But the parties have done this pretty remarkable shift just in the last few cycles, and it has hurt the Democrats.
00:08:09.000And again, in this kind of environment, the white vote is sort of going down over time as its share of the electorate.
00:08:16.000And Republicans have certainly been winning a large percentage of that.
00:08:20.000But for Democrats, it has always been about having 95% of the African-American vote locked in in these states, winning Hispanics by 40 or 50 points in a lot of these states.
00:08:30.000And that's simply not where they're at.
00:08:33.000And, you know, if they don't manage, if they lose even 5% or 10% in those categories, it makes it really, really tough for them to compete in swing states.
00:08:44.000Are they going to still win California, New York?
00:08:48.000Are they going to win some of these other battleground states?
00:08:51.000It's going to make it really, really tough for their electoral majority.
00:08:57.000Okay, Kirk fans, I need you to stop and pay attention to this.
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00:10:51.000Yeah, and so it seems as if they're going all in.
00:10:54.000You know, the Democrats are Joe Biden on Wisconsin, on Michigan.
00:10:58.000If you had to say, what was if one of the great advantages that Joe Biden has, what would you think that is right now?
00:11:03.000The incumbency, they're going to run on the abortion issue.
00:11:07.000Is this turning out to be an abortion referendum election?
00:11:11.000You know, it's not reflected in the polls, but again, it wasn't reflected.
00:11:15.000You go back and look at the pre-election polls in 2022, and abortion was well down the list.
00:11:21.000Now, again, you look at the partisan splits for Democrats, it was higher, in some cases, pretty high, and it certainly motivated their base.
00:11:28.000But overall, and among Independents and Republicans, it was well down the list.
00:11:33.000So I think it's too early to say exactly how, because again, I'll mention the USAA Today Suffolk poll.
00:11:41.000Number one issue was inflation in the economy, 29%.
00:11:47.000you know, three times less in terms of the public's view of that as an important issue.
00:11:53.000But again, you know, we'll have we'll have abortion referenda on this on the ballot in certain states, in Arizona, for example, and other places.
00:12:02.000And I think that will help juice Democratic turnout for sure.
00:12:07.000So, but again, that's going to be complicated by, you know, where's the economy?
00:12:40.000We'll have to see, but certainly that's an issue that works in the Republicans' favor, works in Donald Trump's favor, not just in southern states, but in places in states like you mentioned up in the Rust Belt.
00:12:52.000The Real Clear Politics Average is very instructive here.
00:12:55.000Just briefly, how are you factoring in and making sure you get accurate polling for the RFK factor, the third party factor that could be very difficult to poll, very difficult to pinpoint, very tough to predict?
00:13:08.000Well, listen, I mean, you know, we are aggregating all the various pollsters.
00:13:12.000And so, you know, we typically, not everybody's polling three-way races and not everybody's polling five-way race.
00:13:19.000Most pollsters are still doing a head-to-head, but certainly when we have that data, we're aggregating.
00:13:25.000So you can look at we have a two-way page, a three-way page, and a five-way page at the national level.
00:13:30.000And then, again, where RFK has made the ballot, you can get some state-level data on that as well.
00:13:37.000I think Emerson just released a poll in Arizona showing a two-way race and a three-way race there.
00:13:44.000And as you mentioned, it gets a little bit dicier in terms of what's the margin of error, how accurate is this going to be.
00:13:52.000And then, you know, traditionally, third-party candidates fall into that trap where they'll poll pretty well up until the time, you know, that voters go into the booth and decide, oh, you know, do I want to, quote unquote, waste my vote on someone who I know doesn't have a chance to win if they're 10% or 15% or whatever.
00:14:15.000So RFK may end up suffering something like that, but that's not something the polls can foresee.
00:14:21.000I mean, they just have to take in what voters are telling them before they go into the voting booth.
00:14:24.000And then, you know, when they get in the booth, they may come out on the other side and the results may be strikingly different.
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00:15:12.000So Tom, let me ask you, if Donald Trump were to get the label slapped on him as convicted felon, how, if at all, will that move, just based on your polling and looking at issue-based polling, will that be a mover of public sentiment and political outcomes?
00:15:31.000So there is some, I think the conventional wisdom is, and there is some data that suggests that if he is convicted of any of the charges, that that would be a deal breaker for some folks who are currently supporting him.
00:15:46.000I personally am skeptical of that, just because certainly on the Republican side, you know, most Republican voters already see most of these charges overwhelmingly as being politically motivated.
00:16:00.000And obviously, Democrats are on the other side.
00:16:02.000So we're really talking about independence to a certain degree.
00:16:06.000And I just don't know that a lot of this stuff is already, I think, baked into, because it's been in the news every single day for months now, that it's baked into the calculus of a lot of these voters when they get asked this question.
00:16:20.000So I'm skeptical that it would be a game changer, but we'd actually have to wait and see.
00:16:26.000I mean, I think there is some data that suggests that Trump would be hurt by that.
00:16:31.000We'll have to see if that actually pans out, if and when any of these convictions happen.
00:16:36.000So, Tom, you know, we're heading towards nomination season.
00:16:40.000Do you have any idea or indication of who Trump picks as the vice president?
00:17:40.000I mean, he is no spring chicken, even when you look at the actuarial tables.
00:17:45.000And so who, as you mentioned, who is he going to pick that can potentially step in and continue, if it were to come to that, his policies and executing his vision, his agenda, and carrying forward that sort of, you know, the MAGA torch.