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00:01:02.000We had a very long weekend tabulating numbers and streaming late into the evening.
00:01:09.000And so, Andrew, you and I were running the numbers all Sunday, and I found it to be very conservative that Carrie Lake would break 60% in this drop last evening, and she got 54.5%.
00:01:23.000The only explanation is that she lost Independence Day of in Chandler and Mesa and in Gilbert, where a lot of those ballots came from, including in Congressional District 1.
00:01:35.000In order for this to be as they say it is, it means that Carrie Lake was running behind David Schweikert.
00:01:42.000She's running behind the congressional candidates.
00:01:44.000So, Andrew, what's your take on all this?
00:01:47.000Yeah, I mean, I think what I want to say is that we hear you.
00:01:59.000I mean, Charlie, I know there's a lot of suspicion out there that there is something untoward happening.
00:02:06.000And I think I understand that suspicion.
00:02:09.000We are hearing, however, from people that know what they're talking about that there are eyes and ears at every step of the process, that there are Republican observers literally at every step of the process.
00:02:22.000Now, that being said, you know, you tweeted out something the other day that I thought was profound.
00:02:26.000It's if there is the appearance of impropriety, it can be just as damaging as if there is impropriety.
00:02:33.000So, yeah, to your point, a lot of people are suspicious.
00:02:37.000A lot of people are crunching the numbers.
00:02:38.000You know, to your credit, it wasn't just you sitting on the back of an envelope doing math during the last couple of days.
00:02:46.000We've been talking to people to campaign.
00:02:48.000We've been talking to independent observers and pollsters.
00:02:52.000Everybody gained this out that Carrie had a very clear path.
00:02:56.000As a matter of fact, she was after election night and day two, she was the clear favorite, even in the betting markets that reflected it.
00:03:03.000And yet, at every single drop, she missed her mark just by enough that as this accumulated drop by drop by drop, essentially this path continues to narrow.
00:03:16.000And now there's still a path, but it keeps getting narrower.
00:03:19.000So we need to have a monster night tonight.
00:03:22.000I'm assuming there will be a follow-up night after that.
00:03:25.000But the bottom line is, you know, you could take your imagination down two paths.
00:03:37.000What we can say is that on election day, a day that favors conservatives, a day that favors Republican voters, and we talked about this a lot, there were massive problems.
00:03:51.000How many people were told to go to another polling place only to run out of time, have to go back to work, have to pick up the kids?
00:03:57.000How many voters did we lose because the county could not get their stuff together?
00:04:02.000Well, it was, I mean, and we warned about the Election Day traffic jam here.
00:04:06.000But look, I mean, I do believe that, I mean, look, the focus has been on tabulation and all the stuff happening in the Maricopa County Recorder's Office.
00:04:14.000But I can say very confidently that there's incredibly suspicious ballot drops happening in some of these areas.
00:04:22.000I refuse to believe that the Democrats are not ballot harvesting.
00:04:25.000It's illegal in Arizona, but there is no other explanation that when you see these massive spikes in Democrat areas, I mean massive spikes.
00:04:36.000Katie Hobbs is outpacing Joe Biden in Tempe and in downtown Phoenix.
00:04:45.000So it says that there actually might be 94,000 ballots in Maricopa County.
00:04:50.000Now, there is a chance, it's a small chance, there is a chance that Maricopa is so incompetent or sinister that there's like 10 to 15,000 really good Republican ballots still out there in like drawer three, because we keep on getting emails from people where they are saying, my ballot has not been counted, my ballot has not been counted, my ballot has not been counted all across Maricopa.
00:05:16.000But every single model that we had, just so you guys understand, and, you know, we appreciate you guys watching the program all weekend, but you know, going through this, it's just been shocking and stunning because Kerry Lake won day of independence two and a half to one, even three to one in certain parts of the valley.
00:05:34.000But then we're supposed to believe that she then loses independence if someone then drops off their ballot.
00:05:39.000That means there is a 20 to 25 point drop off between independents that voted in person and then dropped off their ballot.
00:06:26.000Number one, there can be an opportunity for us to reach out and get people to cure their ballots, which could be 2,000 or 3,000 potentially Republican-cured votes.
00:06:37.000Democrats are doing this right now, which they have an entire ballot curing operation.
00:07:20.000What I do know is that when I recommended that people entertain voting early because Maricopa County was going to create traffic jams, we were attacked across the board by people saying, Charlie, don't tell people to vote early.
00:07:35.000Well, there was easily 20 to 40,000 people based on any estimates of people that were disenfranchised in Republican areas on Election Day.
00:08:02.000Once we see it, we're going to be the first to talk about it.
00:08:06.000We're not afraid to talk about it if we see it.
00:08:08.000But at every step of the way, we saw that, or we were told from people that we trust, people that are on our team, people that want the same things we do, that there wasn't anything untoward that they could see at this point.
00:08:20.000Now, it boggles the mind, but we have to also be honest.
00:08:23.000You know, in some situations, like with Lauren Bobert, she was down.
00:08:28.000And as the vote count drags out, she then becomes, you know, she ends up in first place, right?
00:08:34.000So it feels like a lot of significant races we lose the longer these things drag out.
00:08:41.000And I think, you know, hopefully there will be some consensus, especially in the state of Arizona, that, you know, one of the wins, by the way, of this election cycle is that the legislature in Arizona is going to be more conservative than ever.
00:08:51.000Now, if the legislature has to go up against Katie Hobbs as governor, not a lot's going to get done.
00:08:57.000But hopefully there's some consensus that this is not the right way to run an election, right?
00:09:01.000Because it inspires the mind to think about ways that this could be rigged, gamed, cheated.
00:09:14.000I mean, we're going to be counting votes in California for another three weeks.
00:09:19.000But I can say that A, this isn't good.
00:09:23.000B, everybody missed their marks, which is, I guess, could happen.
00:09:28.000But it appears that the Democrats, you know, got the inside straight right here in Arizona, which is mind-boggling, especially with a candidate as special as Carrie Lake.
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00:10:54.000And look, I want to apologize for what I can take credit for: I was so bullish last week on all the data in front of me.
00:11:02.000And so, you know, some people said, oh, Charlie, you misled us.
00:11:05.000Look, I didn't in the sense of the data was the data.
00:11:10.000And I didn't think in any conceivable universe that Kerry Lake was going to lose Independence Day of on election day drop-offs by five to seven points.
00:11:22.000I'm not going to apologize for somehow saying that I had a spirit to mislead people because everything I was saying, I believe that I wasn't alone.
00:11:30.000Rich Barris, the entire data cruncher, is in the Kerry Lake war room.
00:11:35.000And so, look, the data was very clear at the time.
00:11:42.000Kerry Lake can do very well in this final drop.
00:11:44.000We still do not know how many ballots are remaining.
00:11:48.000The Pima drop remains this kind of, let's just say, outstanding question.
00:11:54.000Donald Trump won that very similar drop.
00:11:56.000Kerry Lake is beating Donald Trump in every major county from Yuma to Mojave, what Trump did in 2020.
00:12:06.000And I understand, I mean, not only are we upset, we're shocked, we are speechless in the sense of Katie Hobbs, who did not campaign, Katie Hobbs, who very similar to Joe Biden, basically refused to debate and communicate at all, was able to somehow beat Kerry Lake in game day independence, even though Kerry Lake won game day independence of in-person election day voting.
00:12:32.000And so, look, this thing's right on the margins.
00:12:34.000The good news is it looks like Abe Hamaday is almost assuredly going to pull it off.
00:13:20.000I know that's what the audience and what we're hearing on Twitter are saying, but we have a responsibility to say if we've seen it or we haven't, and we haven't.
00:13:28.000The other explanation is that the conservative movement and the RNC and leadership need to get a lot better at the process of electioneering.
00:13:39.000And I think that's where we're going to go in this conversation.
00:13:42.000Now, there's a difference between ballots and voters.
00:13:48.000And we're seeing yet again that the Republican Party, and I think you have to start at leadership, was caught flat-footed when it came to learning how to game the system the way the Democrats have.
00:14:02.000Old school is working on messaging, debates, getting out your message.
00:14:07.000New school is electioneering, the mechanics of collecting ballots and getting out the vote, curing ballots.
00:14:13.000That's why something we have to talk about on the show is everybody has to go cure their ballot.
00:14:17.000If tonight's drop is really good, but not good enough, the difference could be made up in curing ballots.
00:14:23.000So you have to go, you can follow it on Charlie's Twitter.
00:14:27.000There are posts about how to cure your ballots.
00:14:29.000So if you're listening in anywhere in Arizona, you need to get on the ballot curing process.
00:14:35.000And those, and we could bring up the website here.
00:14:38.000But the bottom line is: the polling showed carry ahead.
00:14:42.000A lot of the polling showed Blake tied or one point ahead.
00:15:35.000And there's a really good financial reason to do it because you know who's off the chessboard and then you can deploy your capital more efficiently to get the votes remaining on the chessboard.
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00:17:15.000True the vote, Greg Phillips and Katherine Ingelbrecht are receiving thousands of calls of people that tried to vote in Arizona on Election Day and were turned away.
00:17:24.000In fact, we know of many people that have emailed us freedom at charliekirk.com that went to go vote and they were told by the election workers, go to another location, just go find another location.
00:17:34.000And there's only 223 of those in Maricopa County.
00:17:38.000And remember, 70 of them, Charlie, were experiencing difficulties.
00:17:52.000That much is absolutely, absolutely true.
00:17:54.000And if this race comes down to a couple of thousand votes, one way or the other, that's something that we can point our finger to instantly and say whatever words you want to attach to that, that's wrong and it can happen.
00:18:08.000And I think there's going to be lawsuits galore on the back of this, as there should be, right?
00:18:12.000And I think we're all sick of seeing people like Bill Gates go on TV and sort of in his nasally voice defend the process.
00:18:19.000No, you can't defend what happened on Election Day.
00:18:22.000You absolutely, it's indefensible what happened in Maricopa County.
00:18:25.000And the people of Arizona have a right to be pissed off.
00:18:27.000And actually the people of the country, everybody's eyes are on Maricopa County and rightly so.
00:18:32.000Yeah, and it's beyond high stakes in more ways than one.
00:18:37.000And so it's illegal, technically illegal, to ballot harvest in Arizona.
00:18:43.000However, there's no way that they're getting some of these numbers days before the election in Tempe and these other areas without some form of Democrat ballot harvesting operation going on there.
00:18:55.000Now, the way forward is for Carrie Lake to win 65 to 67% of the remaining vote tonight.
00:19:09.000Now, it's not impossible, but based on last evening, it's going to be very difficult.
00:19:16.000So there's a transmission report that shows that the likely remaining votes, the composition of them in Maricopa County are about 46% Republican, 46% Republican.
00:19:29.000Now, if you look at that and if they kind of vote as characteristic as they are, then there is a very good chance that that's basically her baseline.
00:19:40.000Now, if that means that Carrie Lake is going to have to win independence, probably 20 to 19.
00:19:45.000Now, she did that in person on election day.
00:19:48.000So it's not as if she hasn't done that.
00:20:21.000Now, some people say, Charlie, you know, a lot of people are emailing us, Charlie, it's about the shenanigans and they're breaking the rules.
00:20:27.000Look, I'm a total open mind about all of that.
00:20:30.000I'm trying to focus on what we can do right now.
00:20:33.000We have poll watchers, we have observers, and we need to go start to go try and cure ballots.
00:20:37.000Curing ballots is something that Democrats have been doing for some time.
00:20:42.000Curing ballots is something that people that have been doing in the Democrat Party for quite a while.
00:20:49.000And we have to go out of our way now to go cure ballots, meaning that there's at least 3,000 to 4,000 Republican ballots right now, and we have till Wednesday to cure them.
00:20:58.000And that very well might help Kerry Lake close the margin.
00:21:01.000And then we're still waiting for this Pima drop as well.
00:21:03.000But Andrew, can you talk just a little bit about kind of the broader picture here?
00:21:09.000I mean, I know we're getting a lot of incoming from people and people are really fired up.
00:21:13.000And some people say, I'm never voting again.
00:21:16.000Charlie, I knew this was going to happen.
00:21:18.000Look, if you want to blame me for something, blame me for actually believing that, you know, something like this could actually end up happening.
00:21:28.000Meaning, like I was trying to resist being just automatically cynical all the time.
00:22:03.000I believe there was intentional, I think intentional malfeasance, not just traffic jams, not just all this other stuff.
00:22:10.000But we broadcasted to them, which was my big fear, that on game day, there were going to be issues.
00:22:17.000Now, some people say, Charlie, enough of the I told you so stuff.
00:22:20.000The only reason I'm doing this is because I think it's a learning lesson because I was attacked so severely for even saying this, for saying that there might be some issues on game day.
00:22:31.000People said, oh, no, game day is the only way to vote.
00:22:44.000You have to be ready to wait many, many hours.
00:22:46.000And Blake, you know, if that's the case, that means you're doing very, very well.
00:22:50.000You know, if there all of a sudden are lines and lines and lines.
00:22:53.000And, you know, just from an analysis, there could be anywhere between 400 to 600,000 same-day voters in Arizona tomorrow, which would absolutely just crush the algorithm, overwhelm the system.
00:23:03.000And then the next one we have, let's play cut 279.
00:23:06.000But to the broader population, people that are generally Republican, generally conservative, I am not at all saying go turn in your mail and ballot or go send in your ballot in the Dropbox.
00:23:20.000Instead, you could go and vote in person early and you could track whether or not your vote is actually counted.
00:23:30.000Now, I know a lot of you say, Charlie, I don't trust it that way.
00:23:32.000I fully support an election day surge.
00:23:34.000I think an election day surge is awesome.
00:23:36.000But here's the one logical thing I want to walk through.
00:23:40.000If you forget to vote early, you can always still vote on election day.
00:23:44.000If you get distracted on election day, that's it.
00:23:55.000Yeah, we got some really incredible exit polling from Rich Barris that suggests that it was over 30% of election day voters experienced issues.
00:24:50.000And to that point, if more of our voters got out early, we would have been able to deploy capital, resources, and ground game to narrow in on the votes that were still on the board to get them out to the polls, right?
00:25:10.000You can vote, but what they personally, that's right.
00:25:13.000Yeah, they cut off the window so that the tabulators have chances to have a chance to verify the votes and to count the votes on election day.
00:25:20.000So we all look to Florida and say, well, they got 99% of their vote in on election day.
00:25:24.000Because they shorten the windows when you can do it, and then they tabulate in the meantime so that on election day, they're able to count all election day ballots and they have an answer.
00:25:38.000The old model for Republicans was early voting.
00:25:43.000This is why Arizona, this is the untold story, why Arizona has early voting to the extent that they do was because the McCainites and the flakes of the world knew that old people in Arizona like to vote early, right?
00:25:56.000So they used to clean up in that before what happened in 2020.
00:26:43.000The Democrats have perfected this process and they know how to get out the votes.
00:26:48.000They know how to get them out early and they know how to deploy capital in a very precise way once those ballots are in and they can focus their attention on what's remaining.
00:26:57.000And that is one of the big lessons for this.
00:27:47.000I mean, I said this on television this weekend, and I'm going to say it again.
00:27:51.000I do think it's time that for low-propensity Republican voters that we start to embrace voting early, that voting early in person is secure.
00:28:01.000In fact, Republicans beat Democrats in Florida.
00:28:04.000And so here's the thing, is that in Florida, in retirement communities especially, Republicans clean up in early voting.
00:28:13.000Senior citizens get very worried about lines.
00:28:16.000They get worried, and they should, by the way, they might have, you know, difficulty standing for hours on end.
00:28:25.000And basically what ended up happening, especially in Sun City and Gilbert and Scottsdale, where there is a significant 65-plus population that is, you know, very much, you know, Kerry Lake's backbone is that all of a sudden people were pulling into the parking lot and the lines were out the door.
00:28:44.000And I think it's because they knew that we were going to try to show up on election day and overwhelm the system.
00:28:52.000And one out of five of precincts, one out of five of precincts completely and totally went down.
00:29:00.000But here's the good news, everybody, is that we did our job in Arizona Congressional District 1.
00:29:05.000David Schweikert has won, which means that we are probably almost certainly going to take the House of Representatives.
00:29:10.000That's awesome news, everybody, that that was a little bit in jeopardy like the last couple of days.
00:29:18.000Now, if you really want to try to get me confused and just look at the data and just have me just kind of just shrug my shoulders and I'm waiting for an explanation, how is it that David Schweikert, who definitely received a lot of negative press in the last couple of years, is beating Kerry Lake in Scottsdale?
00:29:39.000So, Andrew, I do want to try to broaden this a little bit and talk about that there seems to be in Georgia, Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Nevada that a late break, and the exit polls show this, and even conservatives show there was a late break of independence away from Republicans.
00:30:13.000There was all this stuff, this infrastructure that COVID brought that we didn't use at all.
00:30:19.000However, Andrew, I do want to explore this idea that in my personal opinion, I think Democrats were micro-targeting messaging about abortion, about things being too extreme, about the extreme social policy.
00:30:33.000And I think they saw in early October, I think they kind of smelled blood in the water.
00:30:50.000Now, a lot of money went to Donald Trump's PAC, right?
00:30:52.000And Donald Trump has $100 million in his super PAC that was not spent on this election.
00:30:57.000I think he spent like $3 million, right?
00:31:00.000So that's $100 million that might have been in this election that was not spent.
00:31:06.000But there was a lot of, you know, question, this cycle of why are we getting outspent so much money?
00:31:11.000Well, the issue with being the party of the muscular class and also not having the unions is you're going to have a massive financial deficit.
00:31:19.000So we get the muscular class, but we don't even get the union support because of it.
00:31:22.000The Democrats still get supported by AFSCAMI and SCIU and the oligarchs.
00:31:27.000Andrew, do you think there might have been some messaging losses or do you think it was all machinery?
00:31:45.000I think inflation, crime, the border, a lot of these culture war issues that we feel so passionate about, the trans issue.
00:31:54.000I absolutely think we won on schools, school boards.
00:31:57.000We had some big wins across the country at a local level.
00:32:01.000But, you know, I was trying to tell people this earlier.
00:32:05.000People kind of didn't take it seriously.
00:32:06.000So maybe I didn't zero in on it enough.
00:32:08.000But I will tell you, I've heard countless times from friends of my wife, for example, that they were convinced that Republicans wanted to criminalize miscarriages and they wanted to criminalize ectopic pregnancies and throw women in jail for such things.
00:32:27.000Now, when we look at what happened with young single women, they apparently had the largest lurch left in a generation, which leads me to believe that the abortion issue certainly had a massive impact.
00:32:43.000And now, I think a lot of people, you know, we think like four out of four Republican voters.
00:32:54.000We've got to put ourselves in the position of low agency voters.
00:32:57.000Those people that may come out that, you know, it's funny, on election day, I was getting, I've caught an Uber to the studio and I sat in the car.
00:33:06.000The guy was like, yeah, I don't know if I'm going to go.
00:33:32.000And I think, you know, if you look back at all the messaging about how Republicans are fascist, they're anti-democracy, democracy, democracy's on the ballot.
00:33:41.000I mean, they were all singing from that same song sheet.
00:33:46.000I mean, I think, you know, Tucker, Bannon, our program, I think we were developing a really good message of parents' rights and return to normalcy and lower gas prices.
00:33:56.000And, but I don't think Republican candidates were kind of singing off that song sheet.
00:34:14.000So, but I mean, look, I could say this just from my wife's friend circle and from many others.
00:34:19.000I mean, I could, we kind of went through the list.
00:34:22.000We know of at least 50 to 60 young women that do not like Democrats that voted Democrat this cycle because of what they call pro-life extremism.
00:34:30.000And we warned about this because of Lindsey Graham's sabotage campaign where Lindsey Graham comes out of left field and starts talking about a federal abortion ban, giving them the perfect little soundbite that this is not a state's issue, but this is a federal issue.
00:34:45.000I believe at my core, and no one will be able to convince me otherwise, that Lindsey Graham was trying to sabotage the candidacy of Blake Masters and many other people.
00:34:57.000Thanks so much for listening, everybody.
00:34:59.000Email me your thoughts as alwaysfreedom at charliekirk.com.