The Charlie Kirk Show - Could Miami Turn Red? with Rich Baris and Devin Nunes

00:00:00.000 Hey, everybody, P on the Charlie Kirk Show.

00:00:01.000 Rich Barris from Big Data Polls.

00:00:04.000 We go around the horn.

00:00:05.000 How's Georgia looking?

00:00:06.000 How's Arizona looking?

00:00:07.000 How's Florida looking?

00:00:09.000 What's going on with Carrie Lake?

00:00:10.000 What's going on with Blake Masters?

00:00:13.000 All of that and more.

00:00:14.000 Get involved with Turning PointUSA Today at tpusa.com.

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00:00:39.000 Buckle up, everybody.

00:00:40.000 Here we go.

00:00:41.000 Charlie, what you've done is incredible here.

00:00:42.000 Maybe Charlie Kirk is on the college campus.

00:00:44.000 I want you to know we are lucky to have Charlie Kirk.

00:00:48.000 Charlie Kirk's running the White House, folks.

00:00:51.000 I want to thank Charlie.

00:00:52.000 He's an incredible guy.

00:00:53.000 His spirit, his love of this country, he's done an amazing job building one of the most powerful youth organizations ever created.

00:01:00.000 Turning point USA. 0.65

00:01:02.000 We will not embrace the ideas that have destroyed countries, destroyed lives, and we are going to fight for freedom on campuses across the country.

00:01:10.000 That's why we are here.

00:01:13.000 Brought to you by the Loan Experts I Trust, Andrew and Todd at Sierra Pacific Mortgage at AndrewandTodd.com.

00:01:22.000 Emails freedom at charliekirk.com.

00:01:24.000 With us now is Devin Unez from the great Truth Social, which now can be found in the Google Android app store, if I understand that correctly.

00:01:34.000 Devin, welcome back to the program.

00:01:36.000 Hey, Charlie, great to be with you.

00:01:37.000 Thank you.

00:01:38.000 Tell us about the latest.

00:01:39.000 What's going on?

00:01:40.000 Well, it's good to be we're number one in the Google Play Store.

00:01:43.000 After many, many months of working with Google to try to get them to approve us, they finally did approve us.

00:01:49.000 And now we've been number one for four days, hopefully going on a fifth day.

00:01:53.000 So now we are finally open, Charlie.

00:01:55.000 I know it's been a long, long wait for folks, but we fully opened in April in the Apple App Store.

00:02:02.000 And we've been waiting basically since then to get open for Android phone users.

00:02:07.000 So we're now fully open in the United States and the United Kingdom.

00:02:11.000 And it's great to be here.

00:02:12.000 I think I can finally say we're fully launched in the United States of America.

00:02:16.000 How's traffic going?

00:02:17.000 How are things?

00:02:17.000 What are you seeing?

00:02:18.000 You know, tell us about it.

00:02:20.000 Yeah, look, I mean, I think we're the, you know, obviously we're the third largest social media platform despite all the fake news out there or the U.S. company.

00:02:29.000 If you take Meta, Facebook, Instagram, obviously being the largest, Twitter's next, and then us.

00:02:34.000 And so for a company that just barely fully launched four days ago, I think it's kind of an amazing place to be.

00:02:41.000 And every day we're picking up new users.

00:02:43.000 And, you know, we're the home of free speech.

00:02:46.000 We're that parallel economy.

00:02:48.000 We're the one that we're not going to cancel you.

00:02:50.000 You know, we're not going to be canceled by any big tech giant.

00:02:54.000 And we're building these rails, you know, working with Rumble.

00:02:57.000 Right.

00:02:57.000 I always like to say that we're building that new internet superhighway so that we don't have to rely on these big tech companies.

00:03:04.000 What does that consist of?

00:03:05.000 It consists of cloud, which we're using the Rumble Cloud, video, which we're using Rumble Video, and then also the new Rumble ad system that will compete with Google.

00:03:17.000 And then Truth Social is essentially that communications platform now that we're fully launched in the U.S.

00:03:23.000 And then soon we'll be having direct messages.

00:03:25.000 So that's in test now.

00:03:27.000 So if you're on the platform, you'll be able to send direct messages back and forth between your followers.

00:03:33.000 So, you know, something that people are really worried about is midterm, you know, communications, meaning that in the communication of social media censorship, you guys at Truth are figuring out a way to obviously kind of build that parallel voice.

00:03:46.000 You know, talk about that.

00:03:47.000 Talk about how it's very important people can express themselves freely and openly.

00:03:51.000 And for the first time in this midterm election, we actually have a platform where we can get our voice out.

00:03:56.000 Yeah, and I think that's the key, right?

00:03:58.000 Are both true social and I would say rumble for that matter, we're now standing there in the breach.

00:04:05.000 So that it's not as easy as for the tech tyrants just to do what they did in 2020 and ban the Hunter, you know, Hunter Biden laptop story.

00:04:15.000 If True Social had existed back in 2020 and all of those platforms were banning that, well, you would have had the New York Post Fox, everyone would have had to have come to True Social to post the information, and the American public would have had to go to True Social to get that information.

00:04:27.000 But there just wasn't something like that that existed at the time.

00:04:31.000 So, you know, now that True Social and Rumble have built this new internet superhighway that essentially is not going to censor people for political purposes, you know, that's why I left Congress.

00:04:45.000 And we just don't want to see what happened in 2020 and 21, where certain news stories are censored.

00:04:53.000 And then ultimately, you saw what happened to Parler, where they were completely just nuked off of the internet by these big tech companies.

00:05:00.000 So both True Social and Rumble, we've built this block by block, piece by piece.

00:05:05.000 And I almost look at it as, you know, really, it's almost two things.

00:05:09.000 It's an open internet to give people their voice back.

00:05:12.000 But Charlie, for people like you, it's also a really important insurance policy because a lot of people have built up huge audiences on YouTube just to one day wake up and poof, they're gone.

00:05:25.000 They got, you know, get banned from every single platform.

00:05:27.000 And so I think if you're a content creator, small or large, you know, it's really important to be active on both True Social and Rumble.

00:05:36.000 Yeah, I totally agree.

00:05:37.000 I want to shift gears here, Devin, and get your thoughts on the midterms.

00:05:40.000 Let's play Cut 17.

00:05:42.000 The majority of people say they don't think the president cares about people like them, and most don't see the president as a strong leader.

00:05:50.000 When it comes to 2024, nearly one-fifth of voters in the president's own party say they'd like to see a different candidate on the ballot.

00:05:59.000 And not to mention just general direction of the country, you know, the economy is becoming the number one issue in this midterm.

00:06:05.000 Devin, how do you feel?

00:06:06.000 You've been through a lot of different elections.

00:06:07.000 How do you feel going in 22 days from any Democrats that are out there that actually are saying they want Biden to run again, those are going to completely dissipate after this next election if it is indeed a wave?

00:06:20.000 Charlie, I got my start in politics in 1994, parking cars, putting up signs for that wave that nobody saw coming.

00:06:28.000 Then in 2010, I was in Congress.

00:06:31.000 I was out recruiting candidates, raising money on the campaign trail.

00:06:35.000 Nobody thought that we were going to win, but I'll say that we had really good candidates across the board, and we went pretty deep.

00:06:41.000 The Republicans at the time, we played in a lot of races.

00:06:44.000 And of course, boom, we won back the House and the Senate in 2010.

00:06:49.000 I will tell you, having been there in 2021, out recruiting candidates, working with the NRCC, raising money, doing events all over the country when I was still in Congress, I'll tell you, we have never had a crop of candidates like this across the board in both the House.

00:07:05.000 And I will say this too, even the Senate.

00:07:08.000 You've got a lot of the fake news out there, some Republicans playing into this game that, oh, that we've got weak Senate candidates.

00:07:14.000 You know, that is just absolute nonsense.

00:07:17.000 You know, in any normal year without the fake news, you know, you take an Oz, who's a very popular figure, you know, TV guy.

00:07:24.000 You know, those are always people that you want.

00:07:26.000 You want people with name ID that people know, that star factor.

00:07:30.000 The same with Herschel Walker. 0.97

00:07:32.000 You know, how many times, Charlie, have you heard that, oh, the Republicans, you're just a bunch of old white guys.

00:07:38.000 Well, now we get two young, tech-savvy, dynamic business guy candidates in both JD Vance and Blake Masters out in Arizona.

00:07:46.000 And what does the, you know, what does the fake news say?

00:07:48.000 Oh, they're just terrible candidates. 0.97

00:07:49.000 Well, you know, just a year ago or two, you were saying, oh, they're just a party of the old white guys.

00:07:55.000 So I think that across the board here, phenomenal candidates for sure in the House.

00:08:00.000 It's really, really deep.

00:08:03.000 I think if you, you know, I know everybody wants to hear about numbers, but look, I think the Republicans are looking at somewhere between a 25 to 40 seat pickup, which would, you know, if you get to the 40 seat pickup, you're talking about the largest majority that the Republican Party has ever had.

00:08:20.000 And I think that's, you know, look, we'll see how things break, but clearly, and I know you've probably talked about this, but, you know, Biden is just completely aloof.

00:08:28.000 You got his wife showing up getting booed at the Eagles games.

00:08:31.000 You got him, you know, licking on ice cream, saying that $7 gas in California is normal.

00:08:37.000 I mean, these are, this is a party that is really taking the country down a very dark path and have been.

00:08:44.000 And the bottom line, you know, why?

00:08:46.000 It's because their policies just don't work.

00:08:49.000 They put in these new, woke, extreme left policies, and they have failed.

00:08:54.000 And that's why we have this global inflation that is absolutely destroying people at home.

00:09:00.000 And so, you know, we were talking about True Social and big tech.

00:09:04.000 You know, sometimes all, you know, controlling all the fake news or nearly all the fake news, being able to censor it through all the internet.

00:09:11.000 The problem they have, Charlie, is you cannot censor $7 gas out in California.

00:09:17.000 See, people see it every day in the grocery store, when they drive by a gas station.

00:09:21.000 And I think it's going to be really ugly for them here in three weeks.

00:09:24.000 It looks like it's going to collapse, but we got to put our shoulders to the wheel.

00:09:27.000 What is President Trump's plan for these midterms?

00:09:30.000 Because I know he's doing some rallies and stuff, but I told him this on the phone.

00:09:36.000 I said, we need you, man.

00:09:37.000 We need you out there.

00:09:38.000 We need you on the field.

00:09:39.000 And I'm not saying he's not out there right now, but I grew kind of accustomed to President Trump back in back in 2018 when he did that blitz.

00:09:50.000 You remember that, right?

00:09:51.000 He bailed out so many candidates.

00:09:53.000 And I'm looking at Donaldjtrump.com and there's one planned rally in Texas coming up in five days.

00:10:00.000 So are we going to see kind of a mass blitz from Donald Trump?

00:10:04.000 We're going to tease the audience here.

00:10:06.000 I think we could really use it and need it, especially in some of these MAGA America first areas.

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00:11:01.000 I mean, what could go wrong?

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00:11:19.000 What is President Trump's plan for the midterms?

00:11:21.000 We're running out of time.

00:11:23.000 Look, he's been all over the country all year.

00:11:26.000 He's the party's number one fundraiser, and he's continuing, you know, and that's with True Social, his only social media platform, just barely now being open to all the users in the United States.

00:11:37.000 So he's largely had to rely on emails and these huge rallies that he's been holding basically every week or two.

00:11:46.000 And Charlie, look, I don't know exactly what's in store.

00:11:50.000 I did talk to him over the weekend.

00:11:51.000 He's fired up.

00:11:54.000 He has a lot of candidates.

00:11:55.000 He has never stopped recruiting good candidates to run in these races.

00:12:01.000 And, you know, he's been involved not just in the House and Senate races, he's also been involved in the gubernatorial races.

00:12:07.000 And look, right now it's looking really good.

00:12:12.000 You know, we're what, 22 days out right now.

00:12:15.000 I would, I would guess that he's going to start to ramp up rapidly.

00:12:18.000 I mean, I know this, that if a candidate really wants him to come in, you know, he's going to make every effort he can to get to that candidate's district or state.

00:12:28.000 And if you look across the board, you know, he's hit about the top five or six top states where there's tight Senate races.

00:12:37.000 He's been in those states already.

00:12:39.000 Now the question I think you ask is, you know, will he go back and will he do a kind of a barn burner tour leading up to the election?

00:12:47.000 I'd like to see him do it.

00:12:48.000 But Charlie, as you well know, neither one of us can control what Donald Trump says or no, I'm just asking because I say it as a form of flattery for the president.

00:13:00.000 When I was talking to him, I said, you can win us these midterms.

00:13:02.000 This is all you.

00:13:04.000 And I mean that as total respect.

00:13:06.000 And I think he will.

00:13:07.000 I think that he's going to come out because he doesn't want to sit on the sidelines.

00:13:10.000 And I mean, I think he could win Oz's Senate race.

00:13:13.000 I think he could win Herschel.

00:13:15.000 He was just out here in Arizona.

00:13:18.000 I think he could run up the score in Ohio with JD Vance.

00:13:21.000 And with Obama out of the picture, I mean, we have never seen a former president with this kind of political power.

00:13:29.000 He could change the entire midterm landscape.

00:13:31.000 And so what races in particular?

00:13:34.000 Yeah, go ahead, please.

00:13:35.000 I was just going to say, Charlie, I think that's a very good point because this really is, we're really in an unprecedented era of U.S. politics.

00:13:47.000 Because you had Donald Trump, who was not in politics, business guy, shocks the world, wins in 2016, and then is very popular.

00:13:57.000 Obviously does not come back to the White, does not get re-elected to the White House, but he's never relinquished control.

00:14:05.000 He still is the Republican Party leader.

00:14:07.000 And we haven't seen that in Republican politics for a very long time.

00:14:11.000 And if you compare him to, say, Obama, where Obama has served his two terms, but Obama can't show up and get 10 or 20,000 people to a rally.

00:14:23.000 In fact, I saw he was out doing some political campaign events the other day.

00:14:26.000 And look, and I'm not clearly not an Obama fan, but I will tell you back in 2008 when he was campaigning for office, I mean, the guy could flat out get a crowd and he could give a good sense that I agreed.

00:14:39.000 He could drive 15, 20,000 people.

00:14:42.000 Trump's the only one that outdid him that we've ever seen.

00:14:44.000 Yeah.

00:14:44.000 And what's interesting is that Trump can still do it today.

00:14:49.000 And that's, and I don't think we've ever seen that in American politics in modern history, where you have a former president who is effectively still the party leader.

00:15:00.000 You know, look, people just don't respond.

00:15:02.000 And I'm not being critical of some of my former Republican colleagues in the House or the Senate, but Joe Blow congressman doesn't send out an email or do a rally and say, hey, come and support JD Vance.

00:15:14.000 I don't think Paul Ryan is drawing very big crowds right now.

00:15:19.000 Paul Ryan, who has very nasty things to say about Donald Trump.

00:15:22.000 Yeah, I agree with that.

00:15:22.000 And I just want one other thought.

00:15:25.000 The way FDR completely changed the Democrat Party, they were known as FDR Democrats for two generations, New Deal Democrats in the 40s and 50s and 60s and 70s, really until Bill Clinton came along.

00:15:37.000 Reagan really changed the Republican Party and there were Reagan Republicans.

00:15:40.000 I think Donald Trump's mark on the Republican Party is even very similar.

00:15:43.000 Your thoughts?

00:15:43.000 Yeah, I think the key is Donald Trump is very passionate about one thing that a lot of people mocked him for.

00:15:50.000 They didn't think he was telling the truth about it.

00:15:53.000 As you know, Charlie, he loves infrastructure.

00:15:56.000 He loves buildings.

00:15:58.000 And something that bothered him, and you can just feel it when he talks, when he drove around that Rust Belt and flew to the Rust Belt and did meetings for 20, 30 years, and he watched all these businesses and jobs go overseas, it left a mark on him.

00:16:12.000 He's passionate about it.

00:16:14.000 And so that's really what he brings.

00:16:16.000 When they say America first, it's about bringing American jobs back here. 0.85

00:16:20.000 It's about really standing up to China. 0.62

00:16:22.000 It's about not getting involved in increasing foreign wars.

00:16:26.000 And I think one of the appeals of Trump is that in a world where we live, where people say men can become pregnant, all this, Donald Trump is so real because he always had to deal in things that worked.

00:16:35.000 Trump did not build wealth with abstractions.

00:16:39.000 He built wealth with building things that actually mattered.

00:16:42.000 Okay, Devin Unez from Truth Social.

00:16:43.000 Download it on Google App Store.

00:16:45.000 Devin, thanks so much.

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00:17:50.000 Very smart man is joining us momentarily here.

00:17:54.000 I have a lot of respect for him.

00:17:55.000 He's a pollster data analyst, and we're going to talk all things midterms as it's very, very important.

00:18:01.000 But first, I just want to reiterate: if you're in anywhere in the great city of Fargo, Tallahassee, Charlotte, or Kansas City, I would love to see you.

00:18:13.000 tpusa.com slash tour.

00:18:15.000 I personally have three tour stops coming up in the next week, and that is tpusa.com slash tour.

00:18:23.000 We have University of Missouri tomorrow in Kansas City, not Columbia, Kansas City.

00:18:28.000 And then today we have North Dakota State University in Fargo, North Dakota.

00:18:32.000 And then we have Florida State University coming up later this week, and then University of North Carolina, Charlotte.

00:18:36.000 Joining us now is Rich Barris from Big Data Polls, People's Pundit.

00:18:40.000 And if I get my way, he's going to be helping us anchor on election night, but he's too big for us.

00:18:45.000 So he's got something else to do.

00:18:46.000 Rich Barris, how you doing?

00:18:49.000 Hey, living the dream, Charlie.

00:18:50.000 How you doing, buddy?

00:18:51.000 Doing very good.

00:18:52.000 Welcome back to the program.

00:18:53.000 He does a great job.

00:18:55.000 And so let's just start with the kind of broad question.

00:18:59.000 What's your analysis where we stand in the midterms right now?

00:19:02.000 What's your diagnosis?

00:19:04.000 You know, we're midway through October here, Charlie.

00:19:08.000 And what I expected to happen was, you know, before the summer, all year, we had seen historically large leads on the generic ballot for Republicans bigger than anything we've ever measured before.

00:19:20.000 And that the issues had kind of solidified over the summer.

00:19:24.000 Polling can get a little screwy, but also there were some, you know, wrenches thrown.

00:19:28.000 I think there's a lot of people.

00:19:29.000 Why is that?

00:19:30.000 Sorry to interrupt.

00:19:30.000 Why does polling get screwy over the summer?

00:19:32.000 We get asked that question all the time.

00:19:33.000 I'm curious.

00:19:34.000 Why?

00:19:35.000 Yeah, that's a great question.

00:19:36.000 You know, everybody behaves differently.

00:19:38.000 And Republicans, you know, without insulting anybody, Republicans tend to live their lives a little bit more without being so interested in high interest in politics the way that Democrats are.

00:19:51.000 They're not as willing to participate in surveys, period.

00:19:54.000 And then when the summer comes along, there's a response bias.

00:19:58.000 And I think there was something more going on this time, though, Charlie.

00:20:02.000 We have that speech by Joe Biden.

00:20:04.000 And I think any pollster that is being honest will agree with me that after that speech, and the Mar-a-Lago raid, you know, they retreated.

00:20:14.000 They were afraid, you know, basically to talk.

00:20:18.000 They didn't want to.

00:20:19.000 And the general sentiment was, you know what, you'll find out what my vote is on election day.

00:20:24.000 I don't want to talk to you.

00:20:26.000 And our social bias indicators went through the roof, which we have questions that we use to measure how much social bias is infecting the survey.

00:20:33.000 And it went through the roof.

00:20:34.000 And I think now what's happening is that people are just re-engaging.

00:20:39.000 And there were some independents in our pre-Labor Day survey.

00:20:42.000 They looked like Republican voters, but they kind of moved out of the likely voter model a little bit.

00:20:47.000 Some of them went back to undecided, almost 11% at 12-2.

00:20:52.000 And the someone else number, which is third party, you know, grew bigger than it had been all year.

00:20:57.000 And I had said to people, wait, the fundamentals are the fundamentals.

00:21:01.000 And at the end of the day, those people are much more likely to return to the Republican Party than not.

00:21:07.000 It's a first-term incumbent midterm.

00:21:09.000 And over this weekend, I think you even see some media polls finally start to admit it.

00:21:14.000 Over the weekend, the beginning of the dam starting to break happened.

00:21:20.000 You know, we're district-level polling that is in places that you would never expect to be close, closer.

00:21:26.000 And the generic ballot nationally, it's not done yet, but I will be able to, I mean, I can confidently say Republicans are going to grow their lead in our generic ballot poll nationally.

00:21:37.000 So it's, and we all should have expected this.

00:21:40.000 It's a first-term incumbent midterm with an unpopular president.

00:21:44.000 Right track, wrong track is historically negative.

00:21:47.000 The economy is bad. 0.89

00:21:48.000 Inflation is ridiculous.

00:21:50.000 This is what we should have expected.

00:21:53.000 So what do you make of the new New York Times Sienna poll?

00:21:56.000 I don't know if you had eyes to had a chance to look at it yet.

00:21:58.000 Walk our audience through what it says.

00:22:00.000 You could do a better job than I could.

00:22:01.000 And what's your thought or reaction on that?

00:22:04.000 Yeah, I think generally, I think they're trying now to use a likely voter to reflect the state of the race better.

00:22:10.000 They went from Democrat plus two to Republican plus four.

00:22:14.000 Hispanics are generally in the same ballpark.

00:22:17.000 I think they're going to miss there.

00:22:18.000 I think Republicans are going to do better with Hispanics than they have in the past.

00:22:22.000 I think if you're at 38%, you need to tick that up at least a bit to four points or so at least.

00:22:28.000 And then in concentrated areas, I think we're going to see Republican candidates carry Hispanic voters in statewide races, which is going to stun a lot of people.

00:22:36.000 But I think they better get ready for it because I think it's going to happen.

00:22:40.000 I'm confident in some of these races, it's going to happen.

00:22:43.000 But the working class in that Sienna poll, they at least picked that up.

00:22:49.000 They're re-energized.

00:22:50.000 They're the most stoked about voting.

00:22:53.000 That is not good for Democrat in a midterm election.

00:22:56.000 Yeah, so that's your muscular class voter.

00:22:58.000 Is that right?

00:23:00.000 That's right.

00:23:00.000 Okay.

00:23:01.000 But they're getting crushed by inflation.

00:23:03.000 They're cultural conservatives.

00:23:04.000 They're proud American flag guys.

00:23:07.000 Right.

00:23:07.000 They probably have kids.

00:23:08.000 They're tired of this pregnant men crap. 1.00

00:23:10.000 They're tired of pornography in schools. 1.00

00:23:12.000 Right.

00:23:13.000 Is that the demographic we're talking about?

00:23:15.000 The hard hat folks?

00:23:17.000 Yeah, it is.

00:23:18.000 I mean, look, I had one Hispanic voter tell me recently, I don't have time to learn your new pronouns.

00:23:24.000 I have, you know, bills to pay and I've got work to do.

00:23:28.000 I've got shifts to make.

00:23:29.000 I got, you know, inflation is just beating the hell out of me.

00:23:33.000 I mean, that's what they, you know, that's what he said.

00:23:35.000 It's them.

00:23:36.000 And I also tried pointing out for weeks now that the undecided vote heavily skewed toward Republican demographics.

00:23:45.000 Democrats had been maxed out at the levels that you were looking at.

00:23:49.000 Post-grad holders, you know, they were maybe undecided two to four points.

00:23:53.000 Whereas you had, you know, some college associate's degree and down were largely undecided, were the lion's share of undecided.

00:24:02.000 The same thing is true in partisanship.

00:24:03.000 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, they were the ones holding back.

00:24:07.000 Democrats were maxed out, Charlie.

00:24:10.000 So, you know, there was only one place for them to go.

00:24:13.000 You know, I mean, this was a bit of a fake lead.

00:24:17.000 You know, I think it was, we were the first one in Wisconsin to show Ron Johnson ahead.

00:24:21.000 That's a perfect example.

00:24:22.000 Yes.

00:24:22.000 He was ahead by three in our first poll.

00:24:25.000 He's going.

00:24:25.000 We're redoing that now.

00:24:27.000 He's going to widen that lead because those people who are deciding, you know, that they're Ron Jones.

00:24:33.000 Let's take one state that obviously I'm really interested in Arizona.

00:24:37.000 I mean, Arizona.

00:24:38.000 I don't want to celebrate.

00:24:39.000 I don't want to pop the champagne.

00:24:40.000 I don't want to wrestle on our laurels, but we are having a discussion of our team where one person on our team says, I'm not really big into the vibe.

00:24:47.000 I'm a vibe guy, right?

00:24:48.000 I'm data plus vibe, equals, meaning like I see what do I hear on the ground?

00:24:52.000 What's the chatter? 1.00

00:24:53.000 Yeah, nobody Katie Hobbs is a disaster. 1.00

00:24:56.000 She's not a good candidate. 1.00

00:24:58.000 She is a complete and total flop. 1.00

00:25:00.000 And Kerry Lake's a great candidate. 0.98

00:25:02.000 Is it conceivable Kerry Lake wins by four or five points?

00:25:06.000 It is.

00:25:06.000 We have Kerry Lake up right now, just under four.

00:25:09.000 We're redoing that one as well.

00:25:12.000 This is the thing with Kerry Lake.

00:25:14.000 You know, some of the other Republicans that are going to win, it looks like statewide, are going to do it on the back of pretty decent working class vote.

00:25:21.000 Kerry Lake is actually doing really well with college degree voters, not post-grads.

00:25:26.000 You know, they're just tough nut to crack, Charlie.

00:25:28.000 But if you can get, and so is Abraham Homeday, if you can get four-year voters to basically split or be within that sampling era, you're looking at a potential blowout.

00:25:40.000 A potential.

00:25:41.000 Yeah, so let me ask you then.

00:25:42.000 Okay, that's helpful.

00:25:43.000 So I think Kemp is going to win in Georgia.

00:25:45.000 I'm asking, do you think the governor candidate could pull the Senate candidate if the margin extends so much?

00:25:49.000 Can you explain how what is the ceiling usually of split ticketing in a midterm, right?

00:25:56.000 Is it 4%?

00:25:56.000 I mean, obviously, it depends on the candidate, right?

00:25:58.000 For example, DeWine is going to win by like 20 points in Ohio.

00:26:02.000 I can't stand DeWine, but that might actually help Vance.

00:26:05.000 Is that correct?

00:26:07.000 It is.

00:26:08.000 You know, Vance, I got to tell you, the polling in Ohio has been so terrible.

00:26:12.000 Speaking of Mike Dewine, he was projected to lose based on the polling.

00:26:16.000 Richard Cordray led anywhere between five and 10 points.

00:26:20.000 One poll gave DeWine.

00:26:22.000 It was an NBC poll.

00:26:23.000 And then they gave DeWine a small, I think, three-point lead in July.

00:26:28.000 But then by the time the election rolled around, they had Cordray winning by five.

00:26:32.000 So polling in Ohio is terrible in the media and university polling world.

00:26:38.000 It's just abysmal.

00:26:39.000 They don't really know how to poll that well.

00:26:41.000 I actually think that DeWine, he's going to win, but it's possible they overstate DeWine's support a little bit because they're going to talk about how these Republican governors, I think, are going to carry for sure.

00:26:53.000 Do you think that might be a leading indicator?

00:26:56.000 I mean, how much do am I really?

00:26:59.000 Am I really supposed to believe, according to these polls, that Brian Kemp wins by eight and Warnock wins by three, that 11 points of a split of a Kemp Warnock voter?

00:27:08.000 I mean, give me a break.

00:27:10.000 Yeah, that doesn't doesn't really happen.

00:27:12.000 In rare cases, when, right, like you said, there are, you know, specific candidate or local issues or local scandals or something that has happened.

00:27:21.000 But I really don't believe.

00:27:22.000 I'm not a believer that Walker was hurt badly by these stories.

00:27:26.000 And I think he put on largely from the expectations that the media said of Walker.

00:27:34.000 He outperformed those expectations.

00:27:36.000 And I think he won that debate handily.

00:27:38.000 So I think that a lot can happen in two weeks in Georgia, four weeks in Georgia.

00:27:42.000 And Walker is definitely not out.

00:27:45.000 He's not going to trail Kemp by eight or 10 points.

00:27:49.000 That's just not going to happen.

00:27:50.000 In Arizona, our polling shows that Masters trails Lake by about four.

00:27:56.000 So if Lake wins by five, Masters eeks it out.

00:28:00.000 Now, I don't know if our new polling is going to confirm that or if something changed, but Masters does have some groups that he's got to deal with.

00:28:08.000 I call it the Bill Nelson phenomenon.

00:28:11.000 There are some, you know, in Monroe County in South Florida, it's a Republican county.

00:28:16.000 They kept voting for Bill Nelson for some reason, unbeknownst to me, but because they thought he was a moderate.

00:28:23.000 And one of the real thing, you know, challenges Blake Masters had going into that debate was kind of unmasking Mark Kelly.

00:28:31.000 And I think that was one of the best debate performances I've ever seen.

00:28:35.000 Now it's up to his campaign to get that performance in front of people.

00:28:39.000 It's hard though.

00:28:39.000 You know, it is hard.

00:28:41.000 But he was closing that gap in the final couple of days that we polled that.

00:28:45.000 And it did suggest that he was winning over some people.

00:28:49.000 But we'll see.

00:28:50.000 We'll see.

00:28:50.000 It looks like, like I said, right now in our spread, it was four points.

00:28:54.000 I really don't think, you know, the Docey McSally component, totally different.

00:28:59.000 It was totally different than what we have here.

00:29:01.000 Yeah.

00:29:01.000 Do see one by about 18 points and then cinema won.

00:29:04.000 Yes.

00:29:05.000 That's right.

00:29:05.000 Yeah.

00:29:06.000 I think it's a totally different dynamic.

00:29:08.000 We're looking at open governor race compared to an incumbent Senate race.

00:29:12.000 Carrie Lake, let's just be honest. 1.00

00:29:13.000 She's the most excited. 0.98

00:29:15.000 She is the, I've never seen a candidate since Donald Trump excite, let's just say, apolitical people like Carrie Lake.

00:29:22.000 I've never seen it. 0.99

00:29:23.000 I mean, if Katie Hobbs wins, I will be shocked.

00:29:25.000 I mean, I'm not saying Carrie, I'm not going to guarantee Katie will, Carrie will win by a lot, but there is an enthusiasm component in the equation.

00:29:33.000 There is an enthusiasm variable.

00:29:34.000 I'm telling you, Rich, I get stopped in grocery stores and people say, look, I just recently moved and I wanted to move earlier just to be able to vote for Kerry Lake.

00:29:44.000 You know, we have people that are just, I mean, that's not normal.

00:29:46.000 You don't see that.

00:29:47.000 That will manifest in extra 20, 30, 40, 50,000 votes that polling can't even pick up.

00:29:53.000 And I really believe in parts of Arizona have a lot of California influx.

00:29:57.000 I could tell you, you look at the demographics of who's buying property in Scottsdale.

00:30:01.000 And it's not just California.

00:30:04.000 There's a lot of Midwestern right-wingers like me that grew up in Chicago, grew up in Michigan, and we might be considered moderates in the Midwest, not me.

00:30:11.000 You come into Arizona, you're considered a right-winger, and they love Carrie Lake.

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00:31:10.000 So, so Rich, I hate to put you on the spot, but what do you think we're trending for?

00:31:13.000 52, 53?

00:31:15.000 And also, as an add-on to that, I love the people of Alaska.

00:31:19.000 Do you think the snake Lisa is going to lose?

00:31:23.000 Yeah, I think that Lisa is in big trouble. 0.84

00:31:26.000 And she's going to need ranked choice vote to save her if she can again. 0.99

00:31:26.000 She is. 0.99

00:31:31.000 But it is.

00:31:32.000 It's the biggest scam out there.

00:31:34.000 Alaska and Maine.

00:31:36.000 I mean, just for people should look up why both of those states did this.

00:31:40.000 It protects the establishment and, you know, of both parties.

00:31:44.000 It protects the establishment.

00:31:45.000 It protects the status quo.

00:31:47.000 So it makes it incredibly difficult to throw out a bum that you no longer want in office. 1.00

00:31:51.000 She knew that.

00:31:52.000 That's why all of her campaign staff, she remained quiet publicly, but all of her campaign staff was behind that push for that referendum.

00:32:00.000 So they got it.

00:32:02.000 And on where we're trending, you know, right now, we're still, we're actually redoing the House projections today.

00:32:02.000 Yeah.

00:32:10.000 But, you know, right now, I don't know if we're at 50 yet, but I mean, Charlie, this is, you know, this has been the closest Republicans have been to shattering that 247 since the spring, really.

00:32:22.000 This is looking like the levy's going to break.

00:32:22.000 Wow.

00:32:24.000 So let me ask you understand.

00:32:26.000 So a devil's advocate, a devil's advocate that a smart person I know that we kind of helped us said something that really made me think last night.

00:32:33.000 I don't know if I agree with it, is that polling is actually pretty accurate if Trump is not on the ballot.

00:32:39.000 Do you agree with that?

00:32:41.000 What is your thought?

00:32:42.000 Primary polling was horrible.

00:32:44.000 It was terrible.

00:32:45.000 In 2018, Donald Trump wasn't on the ballot and the polling was worse than 2016.

00:32:51.000 They whitewashed it because they wanted you to think that they had corrected their errors from 2016.

00:32:59.000 State level polling was terrible.

00:33:00.000 If it was right, Joe Donnelly would still be the press, the senator from Indiana, right?

00:33:05.000 Same with Heidi Heitzmann.

00:33:06.000 Heidi Heitkamp, Bill Nelly.

00:33:08.000 Claire McCaskill.

00:33:09.000 Claire McCaskill, exactly.

00:33:11.000 But, you know, Charlie, this predates 2016.

00:33:14.000 I just tried to explain that to people a little bit ago.

00:33:17.000 And on Twitter, I was responding to somebody's incorrect analysis.

00:33:21.000 In 2014, you could go back and look at the generic ballot.

00:33:24.000 Republicans won the House vote by over five points.

00:33:27.000 They were only ahead on the generic ballot by about, I think it was less than two, but NBC News had their final generic ballot tied.

00:33:34.000 Fox News was Democrat plus 2014.

00:33:39.000 Oh, wow.

00:33:39.000 Fox News had a Democrat lead.

00:33:42.000 So did CNN, Pew Research, you know, down the line.

00:33:47.000 I think it was ABC that got it really close.

00:33:50.000 So you got to give them credit where credit's due, right?

00:33:53.000 But for the most part, them and one other showed a Republican lead.

00:33:58.000 It was basically an outlier.

00:34:00.000 Rasmussen had a small Republican lead.

00:34:02.000 So the truth is this has been happening forever.

00:34:04.000 And if you look at the Senate races that year, Kay Hagen, she led in every single poll in North Carolina.

00:34:10.000 Tom Tillis, he didn't lead in a single poll except for one internal Republican poll that everybody mocked by Harper.

00:34:18.000 So yeah, I mean, this predates Trump.

00:34:21.000 So the idea that Trump is the problem and why, you know, the polling has been off, it's incorrect.

00:34:28.000 It's just not right.

00:34:29.000 That's pre-election polling and exit polling.

00:34:31.000 Veteran eggs and pollsters for years have been sounding the alarm that this will hit you guys soon.

00:34:37.000 You know, going back to 04, this is a long-term problem.

00:34:41.000 Rich, what are we seeing in early voting or mail-in ballot returns?

00:34:44.000 Are we seeing a lot of Democrat enthusiasm?

00:34:46.000 Are we seeing a lot of mail-in voting?

00:34:48.000 What are we seeing?

00:34:50.000 Not in Florida.

00:34:52.000 In Florida, which I expected to continue the trend to more election day vote.

00:34:56.000 I'm sure there still will be a heavy Republican election day vote.

00:34:59.000 But has anyone looked at Miami-Dade lately?

00:35:02.000 Republicans are on the verge of outvoting in Miami-Dade, which would be the end.

00:35:06.000 I actually think Miami-Dade is going to fall this time.

00:35:09.000 Donald Trump came very close.

00:35:11.000 Yeah, it could fall.

00:35:12.000 You think Miami-Dade could be a Republican county?

00:35:15.000 I do.

00:35:16.000 I see 100% what Trump and DeSantis have done in Florida.

00:35:21.000 What have they done?

00:35:21.000 Yeah.

00:35:22.000 I mean, and this is where donors, you know, they're like, oh, Trump turns people.

00:35:27.000 You have Florida as a red ruby state.

00:35:32.000 That's unbelievable.

00:35:34.000 And so do we.

00:35:35.000 They cannot win, Charlie.

00:35:36.000 They lose Miami-Dade.

00:35:37.000 I mean, obviously.

00:35:38.000 Do we have any other Georgia?

00:35:40.000 Do we know about returns?

00:35:41.000 Pennsylvania, Arizona, too early to tell?

00:35:43.000 It's a, yeah, the rest of it kind of is too early to tell.

00:35:47.000 Arizona, though, you know, people, as you know, they started getting balance out.

00:35:52.000 We're actually going to be having basically real-time data in Arizona starting in almost about a week.

00:35:58.000 So we'll know that.

00:36:00.000 It's interesting too, because when we're polling, I will give a caveat about Arizona.

00:36:04.000 I'm curious to see if this holds up during what we're basically doing, this exit polling.

00:36:08.000 I'm curious to see if it holds up.

00:36:10.000 But Arizona looked like it was going to be the biggest Election Day vote ever and that I've ever seen in Arizona.

00:36:17.000 And it looked like that in the primary as well.

00:36:19.000 And it happened, Charlie.

00:36:20.000 So we'll say that my only fear is that lines are going to be deterrence to some of our voters.

00:36:25.000 It's a big fear.

00:36:26.000 Rich Barris, got to have you back on soon.

00:36:27.000 Great job.

00:36:28.000 Big data polls.

00:36:29.000 People pun it.

00:36:29.000 Check it out.

00:36:32.000 Thanks so much for listening, everybody.

00:36:34.000 Email me your thoughts as always.

00:36:35.000 Freedom at charliekirk.com.

00:36:36.000 Thanks so much for listening.

00:36:38.000 God bless.

00:36:42.000 For more on many of these stories and news you can trust, go to CharlieKirk. com.

The Charlie Kirk Show - October 18, 2022

Could Miami Turn Red? with Rich Baris and Devin Nunes

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