In this episode, Charlie and Blake discuss the latest polling numbers coming out of North Carolina and the implications for the upcoming mid-term election. They discuss the shifting demographics of the state and the potential impact it could have on the outcome of the election. Also, they discuss why it's important to remember that North Carolina is a swing state and why it could be a key swing state in the mid-terms. They also discuss why they think it's not just a tossup and why we should not be worried about it being close to a close election. This episode is sponsored by Noble Gold Investments, the official gold sponsor of The Charlie Kirk Show. Noble Gold is a company that specializes in gold and other precious metals and physical delivery of precious metals. Learn how you can protect your wealth with Noble Gold investments at NobleGoldInvestments.com. That's where I buy all of my gold. I buy it all and keep it in the safest place I can get it. I don't own any other way. I'm not looking for a safe haven, I'm looking for safe haven. I just want to protect my gold and precious metals in the best way possible. I'll tell you what, I'll buy it wherever I can find it and I'll sell it for you! I'll give you the gold and you'll get all the info you need to know it, right here in this episode. . We'll talk about it all. - Charlie Kirk, Founder of Turning Point USA, Founder and CEO of the Turning Point U, a group dedicated to freedom, liberty, and freedom, freedom, and a free market, and much more! - Thank you Charlie, Charlie Kirk is an incredible guy who's spirit, love, respect, support, and respect, no matter where it's at it's good or bad, and he's a great guy, and we're lucky to have a good time! Thank you, Charlie, thank you for being a good friend, good vibes, good work, and you're a good listen, good night, good day, and God bless you, bye, bye bye. - Blessings, bye - Eternally grateful, bye. Cheers, bye Bye Bye bye. CHELLY - Kristian - BOB & CHEERS - MURPHY CHEERIE - P. & JOSH & BABY - JOSH AND KELLY
00:00:28.000He's done an amazing job building one of the most powerful youth organizations ever created, Turning Point USA.
00:00:34.000We will not embrace the ideas that have destroyed countries, destroyed lives, and we are going to fight for freedom on campuses across the country.
00:00:47.000Noble Gold Investments is the official gold sponsor of The Charlie Kirk Show, a company that specializes in gold IRAs and physical delivery of precious metals.
00:00:57.000Learn how you can protect your wealth with Noble Gold Investments at noblegoldinvestments.com.
00:01:12.000If you were going to give me a little grace, please, I'm not going to overly amplify today as I typically would because we're still healing and recovering.
00:01:28.000Okay Charlie, so let's just lay it out.
00:01:30.000We've talked a lot about battleground states in this election, and generally you've had the same roster of states considered the most decisive ones.
00:01:39.000The old blue wall states, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and then also the Sunbelt states,
00:02:45.000Georgia has a higher black population, whereas North Carolina has much more of that educated white voter population, and so it makes the races a little bit different.
00:02:57.000There's more swing voters in North Carolina.
00:02:59.000Georgia is much more a turnout race between two sides.
00:03:05.000It's not that Trump was guaranteed to win North Carolina, it's that North Carolina was very unlikely to be the decisive state.
00:03:14.000If we lost it, we were losing everything and we were getting killed, and if we were winning, of course it's going to be in our column.
00:03:21.000And what started to shift is, hopefully thanks to some of our work, is like Arizona, one of the more likely decisive states, is looking pretty strong for us.
00:03:36.000You were seeing a lot of fixation on especially Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, because if Trump wins all three of those, in fact if Trump just flipped back And it's a trend over multiple weeks.
00:04:41.000We have a new poll from the New York Times, Sienna, which has Trump up two, which is good.
00:04:45.000But that's actually, he was up five in Arizona and four in Georgia in the same set of polls.
00:04:51.000So we're looking at, we're more likely to lose North Carolina than Arizona or Georgia.
00:04:58.000And that's annoying, because, for example, that scenario we mentioned, if we get Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, and no other states flip, we win.
00:05:06.000If we flip Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, but lose North Carolina, Kamala Harris wins.
00:05:11.000Now, North Carolina has some very important characteristics.
00:05:15.000It has a lot of out-of-staters that are moving into state.
00:05:19.000It has a black population, a significant one.
00:05:22.000It's a southern state, but it also has that research triangle that is one of the fastest growing parts of the country.
00:05:40.000It has Kentucky elements, but then it has, of course, as you say, research triangle, very rapidly growing urban area, lots of educated voters, lots of people from all around the US and lots of immigrant arrivals.
00:05:52.000And then it also has you know that thing you have every state has one it has like Asheville Which is that trendy city for hipsters to move to so you have your little Portland in Appalachia To hang out on you know old Vanderbilt tromping grounds And so it's got all these unpredictable facets to it.
00:07:09.000I believe I was reading somewhere that the deadline to drop out from a North Carolina race was, I think, last Friday.
00:07:14.000And so about three hours before that, they drop on CNN this big article And what they did is, I apologize, this is a little graphic, but they basically dug up comments that they say I think pretty convincingly are an account he had on a pornographic website and he was making a lot of really over-the-top vulgar remarks about, you know,
00:07:38.000Wild sex acts and he said strange things like bring back slavery and He does deny it but people aren't believing that them.
00:07:47.000Yeah and Basically, and I think he said he said a lot of members of his campaign quit so and he was already down.
00:07:54.000This is he was not You know, it is a popular Democrat governor.
00:07:58.000It was gonna be tough to flip it back even with a strong candidate and I But he's been having a rough time, and it's starting to get to the point where he's down enough that you start to worry, is this dragging down the entire campaign in North Carolina?
00:08:14.000It's making people demotivated, that can hurt turnout, and of course now all of the Commonwealth people are getting motivated, like, hey, this could be our saving throw, even if we screw up the Rust Belt, even if we screw up Arizona-Nevada, this could bail us out.
00:08:27.000So I wanted to lead with this, and by the way, no, I do not work for NPR, and this is not a smooth jazz late night radio station.
00:08:34.000A lot of people are emailing me, Charlie, are you auditioning for a job at National Public Radio?
00:08:45.000No, but the reason that we wanted to lead with North Carolina, Blake, is that according to a couple sources I have, Uh, in the national media.
00:08:53.000They're saying that Kamala's going all in on North Carolina and that we'll show you the map.
00:08:57.000She believes this is her path to the White House.
00:09:00.000This is one of the paths to the White House.
00:10:27.000They know that 90% of permanent change comes from the mind, and they work on eliminating the reason you gained this weight in the first place.
00:10:33.000There's no shortcuts, pills, or injections.
00:10:35.000Just solid, science-based nutrition and behavior change.
00:10:38.000And finally, and probably most importantly, I lost 30 pounds.
00:11:46.000The rurals are as red as Kentucky, but you have Charlotte, you have Raleigh, you have Greensboro and Winston-Salem.
00:11:54.000That are some of the more metropolitan centers of the South.
00:11:59.000We've seen this trend where Atlanta, Nashville, Raleigh, Charlotte, they are becoming southern versions of northern states, northern cities.
00:12:14.000Yeah, exactly, and it's all, it's not even so much how left or right the individual cities are, it's kind of just how big they are.
00:12:21.000So in Tennessee, Nashville is pretty, is very blue, Memphis is very blue, but they don't just dominate the state the way that, like, Atlanta dominates Georgia.
00:13:01.000Sorry to anyone who supports a different school there.
00:13:06.000As you say, it is extremely red in the Appalachian Mountain areas.
00:13:10.000There are counties where you're breaking 70%, 75%.
00:13:14.000I'm not sure if any broke 80, but there's probably one or two that did.
00:13:20.000You have a lot of that, and that's enough to keep it very close.
00:13:22.000In fact, it's enough for us to win it most of the time.
00:13:25.000But these cities are getting bluer, and they're that sort of voter who just—we've struggled with those voters, and there's been a realignment of those voters away from us, those post-graduate degree holders who don't like Trump because he's really rude, and you can't vote for that rude man Trump.
00:13:43.000Yeah, and if Trump wins North Carolina, he'll have to run up the score in the Wilmingtons, the Fayettevilles.
00:15:52.000And so I think it's clear that Donald Trump is running ahead of a lot of other Republican challengers this cycle.
00:16:00.000And I also just frankly think it's bogus to think like, oh yeah, if we just ran Nikki Haley, this would be a walkover.
00:16:08.000Well, no, because We've had eight years of a bunch of conservatives learning to dislike all the special things about Nikki Haley, that she wants to bomb Russia or whatever.
00:16:18.000And also, a lot of that premise is like, oh, surely the media would be so much nicer to Nikki Haley.
00:16:37.000As students begin heading back to school, I want to tell you about a great learning opportunity.
00:16:41.000Look, I know you're part of the most informed audience in radio.
00:16:44.000After all, you listen to my radio show.
00:16:46.000Well, I'm happy to tell you that my good friends at Hillsdale College have made it so easy for you to learn even more with the Hillsdale College Podcast Network.
00:16:53.000You can learn more from Hillsdale by listening to one of its excellent podcasts while taking a walk or driving to work.
00:16:59.000The content and quality of Hillsdale podcasts include the Larry Arnn Show, the Radio Free Hillsdale Hour, and the Online Courses podcast are top-notch.
00:17:08.000You can find them on all major podcast platforms.
00:17:10.000With more than 2 million downloads, the Hillsdale College Podcast Network is one of the many ways my friends at Hillsdale are defending liberty on the battlefield of education.
00:17:19.000Find your new favorite podcast today on the Hillsdale College Podcast Network.
00:17:38.000Well, for the greater good of Trump's chances to win the presidency.
00:17:43.000Well, what's unfortunate is I think he's basically, it's too late to actually pull him off now.
00:17:48.000I guess you could in theory have him run and say he, you know, they would have slot someone else in or something, even if he officially won.
00:19:36.000We're working to lift the low propensity vote and get out our people into the field and make sure that we're turning out the adequate number of votes.
00:19:44.000And that's going to be the name of the game.
00:19:47.000In North Carolina and other places as well.
00:20:42.000But in Arizona, you've had that going on for almost three decades now of people, you know, prepared to send in their early ballot and then now voting early at an early polling location.
00:20:53.000Uh, that is, that is happening starting October 9th.
00:20:55.000So if you're in Wisconsin, it's starting now, uh, that joins the, the likes of Pennsylvania that are out, you know, starting their voting.
00:21:03.000Uh, and then in Arizona, it's October 9th.
00:21:06.000And since we talked about it, North Carolina, we've mentioned it's starting tomorrow.
00:21:10.000That is absentee ballots being mailed out.
00:21:13.000In-person early voting for North Carolina starts on October 17th.
00:21:18.000And then you have a couple of weeks of it and then, you know, the shutdown of the election.
00:21:22.000So we've been talking about that state.
00:21:25.000All of you patriots in North Carolina.
00:21:28.000Vote early in person, get your friends to vote early in person, and the thing we always emphasize, ask the people in your life that you think you don't need to ask.
00:21:39.000The people who have the Trump flag, the people who are wearing MAGA gear, the people who are going to rallies.
00:22:32.000Arizona, you have to register before October 7th.
00:22:36.000But you can vote, you can register in person in Wisconsin and vote that same day at the polling place on November 5th.
00:22:44.000But a third of men, so you're looking at this and going, Yeah, this election could come down to, very simply, just like you said, the people we know that we go to church with, that are in our family, who fully intend to vote, who fully think that they're regular voters, but just for whatever reason forget.
00:23:03.000And that is a huge amount of voters that we have to make sure turn out.
00:23:07.000The man in your life, your family member, your grandparent, in particular senior citizens, are always at a disadvantage to voting because they're incapacitated.
00:23:56.000Uh, we also have our Super Chase events.
00:23:59.000So these are like super Saturday style events that we're doing every day during the election period.
00:24:05.000Our team is going to be doing dozens of these in North Carolina.
00:24:09.000You can go to tpaction.com slash superchase, and they'll walk you through getting the app downloaded and then how to contact voters, which is just reminding low propensity Republicans to vote.
00:24:20.000And you yourself don't even need to wait for that.
00:24:23.000You can go download the Turning Point Action application today, tap the arrow on the top left-hand corner, And then input your cell phone number and boom, you can start knocking doors in your own neighborhood.
00:24:34.000And that's what we ask is that everybody just start doing knocking doors in your neighborhood.
00:24:39.000If you're in North Carolina, You need to be talking to your entire neighborhood more than ever because of the attacks that we're seeing happen in North Carolina, both on Trump and Mark Robinson.
00:24:50.000So this is the imperative, imperative, imperative work that we have to do in order to win is tpaction.com slash app, tpaction.com slash 100.
00:25:10.000Walk us through the state of Wisconsin.
00:25:11.000What counties is Turning Point Action most focused on?
00:25:14.000Yeah, where I'm sitting right now, Waukesha County is probably the most critical place in all of Wisconsin.
00:25:21.000And it really comes down to where the Republican votes are.
00:25:26.000So Milwaukee, Milwaukee is a blue county, but because it's this inner city, but you have also conservative parts of Milwaukee County, places that haven't shown up as much.
00:25:39.000So West Allis, Wauwatosa, which is on the Western side of Milwaukee County.
00:25:44.000And then, you know, that blends right into Waukesha where this is very suburban, uh, you know, beautiful neighborhoods, people flying Trump flags everywhere, but there's literally tens of thousands of votes.
00:25:56.000You have, you know, in Milwaukee County alone, a hundred thousand plus Republicans who just don't vote.
00:26:01.000You have close to that here in Waukesha on the North side of, of Milwaukee County and North shore.
00:26:10.000You have lots of people so the more that you get that done Getting out the vote in those areas the more likely you are
00:26:17.000to win, Wisconsin Because that's here. That's our number one impact places
00:26:23.000the places that have the most Republicans that just aren't showing up to vote
00:26:26.000Yeah, exactly. Do you have a similar analysis for?
00:26:30.000For for Pennsylvania and Michigan as well Yeah, so we've done a full analysis in Pennsylvania and Michigan.
00:26:38.000Our focus at Turning Point Action has been Arizona and Wisconsin.
00:26:41.000And really, Blake, this is how we're looking at the election at this point, which is there's six states that matter, you know, and you can throw North Carolina in there as seventh, but we really need to win North Carolina no matter what.
00:26:53.000But the six states are Arizona, Wisconsin, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Michigan.
00:26:58.000Well, Michigan, you know, I don't have a ton of, a ton of faith in every single day because you have some of the worst election laws in the country.
00:27:07.000So, you know, it's not, you know, Michigan's looking good, but Republicans have to show up in a big way in the suburbs, very similar to Wisconsin.
00:27:16.000You have suburban, Detroit, that is the most critical.
00:27:20.000You have a congressional district that goes up where the Capitol is and East Lansing and Lansing that Elise Slotkin was the congresswoman, but it's a plus one or two Republican congressional area.
00:27:35.000So you have some areas there that if you turn out suburban votes, you win.
00:27:41.000You look at Pennsylvania, it's kind of the same thing where it's like the rurals could determine Pennsylvania.
00:27:49.000That's why the work that our team's doing, Noah Formica is on the show all the time.
00:27:53.000You have Scott Pressler, who's living there.
00:27:55.000You have Cliff Maloney's group, phace.com.
00:27:58.000They're doing incredible work doing exactly what we're doing, which is identifying those new voters, identifying the people who don't vote, and going out and chasing the ballots.
00:28:08.000And so our focus, though, is down to the four states that I think are going to matter the most.
00:28:12.000So you have Pennsylvania and Georgia, which is really the campaign strategy, which is If you win Pennsylvania and Georgia, you win this thing outright.
00:29:05.000Look, if you've listened to me for any length of time, you've heard me rave about Balance of Nature's amazing fruits and vegetables and their supplements.
00:29:12.000You've heard their customers rave about how much they love Balance of Nature and how good it is and makes them feel.
00:29:17.000If you've been on the fence about ordering, today is the day you jump the fence.
00:29:20.000Because right now, for a limited time, Balance of Nature is taking 50% off your first set as a preferred customer during the summer savings promotion.
00:29:28.000But you've got to use my special code when ordering.
00:29:31.000Take their risk-free money-back challenge today.
00:29:33.000Use discount code CHARLIE to get 50% off your first order.
00:29:36.000Call 800-246-8751 or order online at balanceofnature.com.
00:29:41.000Use discount code CHARLIE to get 50% off.
00:29:59.000I feel like they usually won't say, I don't have time to vote.
00:30:02.000You'll hear a lot of, I don't vote because it's all rigged, it's all fraud.
00:30:08.000Well, if it is, someone should tell the Democrats because they spend a huge amount of money and a huge amount of time and a huge amount of effort on this.
00:30:17.000So they certainly are not acting like they're just rigging it all in an hour at midnight on election night.
00:30:27.000And I feel like that's honestly the biggest one.
00:30:30.000And then you hear a lot of just very, like very confident, like it's almost insulting to them to say like, I don't need to vote early because I'll vote on election day no matter what happens.
00:30:37.000And it's like, no, it is not no matter what happens.
00:31:02.000Persuasion elections are typically a lower turnout election.
00:31:05.000So your midterm elections, you have to persuade people to like your candidates because typically not as many people turn out.
00:31:14.000When it's high turnout, and it's pretty clear who the candidates are and what they stand for, aka presidential elections, turnout elections are everything.
00:31:25.000And there's not a lot of gray area between Kamala Harris, who's a socialist, and Donald Trump, who everybody knows and has served four years already as president.
00:31:35.000So for that reason, there's not a lot of persuasion that needs to happen.
00:31:37.000It's just finding the right voters and turning out those right voters.
00:31:42.000So that's what we're in the midst of right now and doing is looking and saying, okay, well, who are the people who are almost certainly Republican, so therefore more likely to support Donald Trump, you know, either begrudgingly or because they love Trump, which You know, 80, I would say 90% of the party actually is, is pretty in love with Trump and what he stood for and what he did this last election cycle.
00:32:05.00010% are, you know, listen, probably watch a little bit too much media and too much CNN or things like that.
00:32:12.000But, you know, those are the people that we have to try to get out.
00:32:16.000And if you turn out those people at a higher, at a higher rate than the left does, then you win.
00:32:21.000And this is really what the, the gospel has been that we've been preaching to people.
00:32:26.000It's like, Hey guys, We're not losing elections because we don't have as much excitement.
00:32:32.000We have more excitement in a lot of these places, but we're losing just barely because the left is just targeting more people, putting more bodies on the ground to basically be a concierge at the door for people who just don't typically vote.
00:32:46.000Yeah, Tyler, and just a thing we've emphasized over the summer that polling has shown, and this is stronger with Biden still in the race, but it still is in play with Kamala, is that the evidence does show, compared even to 2016 and 2020, Trump is stronger with, as we say, low propensity voters.
00:33:05.000So he's doing a little better with young people than he used to do.
00:33:08.000He's doing a little better with black voters, a little better with Hispanic voters.
00:33:12.000Those are all groups that are less likely to turn out to vote.
00:33:15.000And historically, they've been very Democrat now, and also lower income, lower turnout white voters.
00:33:22.000Trump is doing better with all of those groups.
00:33:25.000And so, I mean, the New York Times itself in July said, does Biden benefit from a high turnout election?
00:33:33.000And it's like, not anymore, because when you have high turnout, you're getting out more low propensity voters.
00:33:38.000And those are now a group that leans Actually, somewhat leans towards Trump now.
00:33:43.000And all the evidence is this will be a lower turnout election than 2020.
00:33:47.000There's not all the COVID shenanigans that make it, all the intensity that made it so high turnout.
00:33:55.000It might even be lower turnout than 2016, maybe.
00:33:58.000And if that's the case, that might be bad for us.
00:34:02.000And that's also what makes this a turnout race.
00:34:04.000This is going to be Who gets a higher percent of the people they had in 2020 back into the ballot box.
00:34:13.000And I think there's a lot of reason to think it could be us.
00:34:16.000I think there's a lot of excitement around Trump.
00:34:18.000There's a lot more public ability to support Trump, but we have to get those people to put their ballot, their piece of paper into the box.
00:34:27.000Well, and Blake, I was just going to piggyback on that and just say, there's evidence to believe that like the lower.