The Charlie Kirk Show - Data Shows the Election Was Stolen with Big Data Poll's Richard Baris

00:00:00.000 Hey everybody, Richard Barris is on the Charlie Kirk show today.

00:00:03.000 He is the best pollster.

00:00:05.000 He's called the People's Pundit Daily.

00:00:07.000 He's terrific.

00:00:08.000 He got so much right while everyone else got so much wrong.

00:00:11.000 We have a lot to learn from him about the death of polling, the Georgia Senate runoff, and also the state of election fraud in our country.

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00:00:46.000 Richard Barris is here.

00:00:48.000 Buckle up, everybody.

00:00:49.000 Here we go.

00:00:51.000 Charlie, what you've done is incredible here.

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00:02:27.000 Hey, everybody.

00:02:28.000 Welcome to this episode of the Charlie Kirk Show.

00:02:30.000 Super thrilled to be joined today by someone that I really, really enjoyed his tweets until they disappeared.

00:02:37.000 Richard Barris is from the People's Pundit Daily.

00:02:41.000 And I'll walk the audience through kind of how I became aware of him.

00:02:45.000 But first, welcome to the Charlie Kirk Show.

00:02:47.000 Hey, thanks, Charlie.

00:02:48.000 Thanks for having me.

00:02:49.000 It's good to be here.

00:02:50.000 So I started to see your tweets as I was crisscrossing the country.

00:02:56.000 We did 100 speeches at Turning Point Action in like 90 days in support of the president.

00:03:00.000 And I started to realize that the public polling that was being published by all of these, you know, pseudo-con men like Nate Silver and the Cook Political Report were so completely inconsistent with what I was seeing on the ground with even just some of the early voting numbers that were coming in, specifically in Florida.

00:03:23.000 And so, as you all know, the early voting numbers in Florida were very favorable for Republicans, but almost none of that was being reflected in a lot of the mass news coverage.

00:03:32.000 But you were one of the few people alongside Larry Schweikert and others that really caught my attention.

00:03:36.000 I was like, wow, there's this really cool kind of disaggregated, decentralized, grassrootsy data community that's actually doing the work that Nate Silver says he's doing.

00:03:47.000 Introduce yourself to our audience.

00:03:49.000 I want to walk through just all of this.

00:03:51.000 We've got lots of time.

00:03:52.000 So please introduce yourself to our audience.

00:03:54.000 Yeah, sure.

00:03:55.000 I am the editor of People's Pundit Daily, but I'm the director of Big Data Poll.

00:04:00.000 And People's Pundit Daily does have an election projection model.

00:04:02.000 We put it to the side this year because we did the public polling project, which did, like you were saying, found very different results than what other people were finding.

00:04:11.000 This happened to us in 2016 as well.

00:04:14.000 And now I'm just at this point, Charlie, you know, 2016, you have a mess up.

00:04:18.000 Okay, fine.

00:04:19.000 You know, you could fix it.

00:04:20.000 You can evolve.

00:04:21.000 I had a different philosophy about polling than others.

00:04:24.000 We're in a new era.

00:04:25.000 We're in a different time.

00:04:26.000 So you have to evolve with that time.

00:04:28.000 So, you know, 2016, you can take it as a hit and move on as long as you try to grow.

00:04:34.000 But in 2018, they missed again.

00:04:36.000 And a lot of people ignored it because the Democrats took the control of the House of Representatives.

00:04:41.000 But they missed that the state level polling was horrible.

00:04:44.000 So we went into 2020 again and thought we should do something different, more transparent, unlike the work you'll see on those other websites.

00:04:53.000 Very transparent.

00:04:54.000 People can get whatever they want.

00:04:55.000 And we outperformed them again.

00:04:57.000 And it's at the point now where there's just so much evidence.

00:05:00.000 They know what they're doing wrong.

00:05:02.000 There's so much evidence.

00:05:03.000 So you really have to be a cynic at this point.

00:05:06.000 Yeah.

00:05:06.000 So let's walk through that.

00:05:08.000 Your projections were correct.

00:05:09.000 And at least you were covering data on the People's Pundit Daily and the big data poll that would at least add a little bit of nuance to the predominant narrative.

00:05:19.000 And I have a screenshot of Nate Silver's website two weeks before the election.

00:05:24.000 And it made me so angry because I knew it wasn't true.

00:05:27.000 And he had one of these tweets that he retweeted where he's, I said, I'm so sick and tired of hearing people that say what it's like on the ground.

00:05:35.000 I said, hold on a second.

00:05:36.000 Have you left your five square radius of wherever you live in DC or New York where you have to wear a mask from your knees to your forehead?

00:05:43.000 Like, have you ever left there and talked to a regular human being in a place called Iowa, a far distant land?

00:05:48.000 Or maybe even have you visited Florida recently?

00:05:51.000 And the answer is probably no.

00:05:53.000 And so I, again, I'm not a data guy.

00:05:55.000 I can understand it well enough where I could look in crosstabs.

00:05:59.000 I could see nonsense when I see it, like the Quinnipiek poll where they just make stuff up.

00:06:04.000 It's a complete act of fiction.

00:06:05.000 They might as well be the modern day C.S. Lewis in politics.

00:06:08.000 They're just making stuff up.

00:06:10.000 And I mean, they had something like Donald Trump down 19 points or 14 points in Michigan.

00:06:16.000 And so can you walk through actually how wrong these people were?

00:06:22.000 Larry Sabado, the Cook Political Report, Nate Silver.

00:06:25.000 And by the way, I let them with a free pass in 2016.

00:06:28.000 I was like, you know what?

00:06:29.000 That's fine.

00:06:30.000 A lot of people got it wrong.

00:06:32.000 This time, I'm going all in because I called them out on their nonsense a month before the election and they dug in.

00:06:40.000 They doubled down.

00:06:40.000 They're like, you're wrong.

00:06:42.000 We're right.

00:06:42.000 Gonna be a blue mirage.

00:06:44.000 Senate's already in the Democrats.

00:06:45.000 They're polishing the brass on the Titanic and the Republicans.

00:06:49.000 Tell us how wrong they actually were.

00:06:51.000 Yeah, so it really is multiple levels of how incorrect they are, right?

00:06:55.000 So it's not just the headline numbers, and you're talking about crosstabs before.

00:06:59.000 These guys at Cook, even Larry Sabado and Nate Silver, these are glorified poll readers.

00:07:06.000 That is what they are.

00:07:07.000 They're just very, they're very good IT people.

00:07:10.000 They have very good website design people and they have a very good PR team, right?

00:07:14.000 So they get very favorable media coverage.

00:07:16.000 They have very cool looking websites, but they don't know what they're doing or what they're talking about.

00:07:21.000 They are completely out of touch with the country and they're never going to get any better until the polls get better because they just read the polls.

00:07:28.000 And how wrong these polls were, it's really so much deeper than, you know, Biden plus here, Biden plus there.

00:07:35.000 They didn't tell us that Biden was going to win because he was going to win huge, unheard of vote.

00:07:41.000 He was going to win vote totals in urban and metro areas that were unheard of before, even in the era of Barack Obama.

00:07:48.000 They said that Obama was going to win because Trump was losing parts of his base, right?

00:07:53.000 That was the narrative.

00:07:54.000 There are 200 countries, 200 counties, a little bit more in this country that flip from Barack Obama to Donald Trump.

00:08:01.000 What the polls were saying, the Nate Cohens and the New York Times, they were saying those counties were going to flip back.

00:08:08.000 But in 2020, that's not what happened.

00:08:10.000 Juneau County did not flip back.

00:08:12.000 Vigo County, Indiana did not flip back.

00:08:15.000 Woods County, Ohio did not flip back.

00:08:18.000 All of the counties that Donald Trump flipped in the eastern part and the northern part of Iowa, they went for Barack Obama twice, and he flipped all of them in 2016.

00:08:28.000 He held every single one in 2020.

00:08:32.000 Macomb County, Michigan did not flip.

00:08:34.000 Greene County, Pennsylvania.

00:08:36.000 I mean, I could go on and on.

00:08:38.000 This is what their polling was telling us was going to happen.

00:08:41.000 And it did not.

00:08:42.000 It did not.

00:08:43.000 So it's more than just they were wrong at the top line, Charlie.

00:08:46.000 They were wrong all the way around.

00:08:49.000 The Cook political report, which should be disbanded.

00:08:51.000 I just saw them on television the other day.

00:08:53.000 And I thought to myself, it is incomprehensible to me that these people still get television time.

00:09:01.000 And they're on talking about the Georgia Senate runoff.

00:09:05.000 And I say, I feel like I'm living in the Twilight Zone or some form of the bizarro world.

00:09:09.000 There's no consequence whatsoever for these people being wrong.

00:09:12.000 They get more airtime.

00:09:14.000 They get more web traffic.

00:09:15.000 The Cook political report, which really bothered me because they have such a smug way about them, and they go on certain television networks that I watch more than not.

00:09:24.000 And I'll never forget, I wrote it down and they ended up saying this was their prediction.

00:09:29.000 They had 27 what they called competitive house races.

00:09:33.000 Republicans won all of them.

00:09:35.000 All of them.

00:09:36.000 I mean, and they said that.

00:09:38.000 And then The Economist, which again is another far left-wing hack job, said that Nancy Pelosi would get 244 seats in the House.

00:09:49.000 I think that she'll get around 221 to 225. 1.00

00:09:52.000 That's probably where she's going to land.

00:09:54.000 We don't know because we're still counting votes as we've entered the third world in our voting tabulation processes in our country.

00:10:01.000 But so can you answer, is it the methodology of how they're doing polling or is it how they're analyzing the polling?

00:10:09.000 That's where I'm under, I can't quite square that.

00:10:13.000 Yeah, so I'm pretty sure, you know, I think it's safe to say that I think they've always been overrated, right?

00:10:19.000 And it's not a coincidence that they have gotten less accurate the more inaccurate polling has become.

00:10:25.000 And that is really what I have to stress to everybody, if anything, if nothing else.

00:10:30.000 If you try to get in the weeds with these guys, and I have to say Larry at the crystal ball, he's at least, you know, been all right, but some of them are just not.

00:10:38.000 If you're an outsider, though, I mean, you are not welcome in this game.

00:10:42.000 And if you try to engage them with, hey, what about this?

00:10:44.000 What about?

00:10:45.000 And you try to go into the weeds, the minutiae, they don't know what you're talking about.

00:10:49.000 I'm thoroughly convinced at this point.

00:10:51.000 I tried to explain to Nate Cohen why he would be wrong in Florida and why Dave Washerman was touting that polling as why Joe Biden was going to win the state of Florida.

00:11:03.000 It was ludicrous.

00:11:05.000 So we try to get into the minutiae.

00:11:07.000 I tried to engage with him.

00:11:08.000 Listen, this is what you did wrong in 16.

00:11:10.000 You repeated that mistake in 18.

00:11:13.000 They're just smug. 0.99

00:11:14.000 They're arrogant. 0.78

00:11:15.000 But I think they use that arrogance, Charlie, because they don't know what I'm saying.

00:11:19.000 So when I tried to explain to him about representation in subgroups, he had no idea what I was talking about.

00:11:25.000 He tried to pivot to something about the census, which is irrelevant to what is on a voter file, right?

00:11:30.000 The census is the entire population.

00:11:32.000 But it dawned on me right then and there that it really is arrogance driven by ignorance.

00:11:38.000 They don't know.

00:11:40.000 So as long as the polls are wrong, they'll always be wrong.

00:11:42.000 And that's just the way it is.

00:11:44.000 That's perfectly said.

00:11:46.000 And it's refreshing to actually have someone that views this stuff, you know, scientifically and mathematically.

00:11:52.000 And again, coming as a non-data expert, I just knew what they were talking about was just full of nonsense.

00:11:58.000 And yet they still get web traffic.

00:12:00.000 And do they not realize how much weight there is behind these public polls?

00:12:05.000 These are not predictions.

00:12:06.000 This is something that they get wrong.

00:12:08.000 These are actually contributions to voting patterns.

00:12:11.000 These are contributions to people's behavior.

00:12:14.000 This is not some person behind a curtain with some sort of crystal ball.

00:12:19.000 That's what really bothers me about Larry Sabado.

00:12:21.000 You call yourself the crystal ball, and he gets like everything wrong.

00:12:24.000 He got the Senate wrong.

00:12:25.000 He got North Carolina wrong.

00:12:25.000 He got Florida wrong.

00:12:26.000 He got Ohio wrong.

00:12:28.000 And I believe that some of these states were stolen, and we'll talk about that too.

00:12:32.000 But I mean, Larry, the Quinnipiak poll had Trump tied in Texas.

00:12:39.000 I mean, it's just incomprehensible.

00:12:42.000 So, can you just add some light?

00:12:45.000 Do they allow their own political ideology to seep into what should be a kind of politically agnostic exercise?

00:12:52.000 Or is it that they want it or they want it to be more competitive?

00:12:57.000 And so it's a nicer news story.

00:12:58.000 So it's more clickbaity, or they just didn't want to give Trump the appearance that he was becoming a winner.

00:13:04.000 What do you make of all that?

00:13:06.000 Yeah, Quinnipiak, too, just before I roll into that, Quinnipiak is one of the most egregious examples.

00:13:11.000 And they're a repeat offender.

00:13:13.000 Every year, they're among the worst.

00:13:14.000 Biden plus four in Ohio.

00:13:16.000 Charlie, you can't make that kind of mistake.

00:13:17.000 We polled, we took Ohio off the table in September because it was Trump plus 10.

00:13:22.000 I mean, it was over and it was a waste of money.

00:13:24.000 So people don't change their opinions like that.

00:13:26.000 So that's either incompetence or it's intentional, right?

00:13:29.000 There's no way to be this bad at your job, guys.

00:13:32.000 If you're any other industry, if you're anyone else in what you think about what you do for a living, folks, if you were this bad at your job, would your boss let you continue to work there?

00:13:41.000 Of course not.

00:13:42.000 Unless, of course, that's your job, right?

00:13:44.000 So the Nate Silvers of the world, they bleed millions of dollars every year.

00:13:48.000 He's not even profitable.

00:13:49.000 So why is he around?

00:13:50.000 Who wants him around?

00:13:52.000 And these are the questions we're going to have to start asking ourselves because at this point, when you're any kind of data research, you cannot let groupthink just completely seep in and control everything.

00:14:03.000 And that's what happened.

00:14:04.000 Believe me, we try to engage these people.

00:14:06.000 When you do, you get smeared, you get attacked, and it's vicious.

00:14:11.000 So there's no other explanation for that.

00:14:14.000 If you're a true social scientist of any kind, you welcome dissent.

00:14:18.000 You welcome people from the they like the word consensus, right?

00:14:22.000 When it comes to polling.

00:14:23.000 You welcome people who don't see it the way the consensus is because you're supposed to be, like any other science, you're supposed to be challenging your own position.

00:14:31.000 You're supposed to be challenging your own thoughts.

00:14:33.000 And they have no room for that.

00:14:35.000 So, you know, over the years, I've gotten more and more to be more of more of a cynic.

00:14:40.000 And I really think it's now.

00:14:41.000 It's probably all the above of what you listed, but there's no doubt that a lot of this comes down.

00:14:46.000 It just comes down to ideology.

00:14:48.000 They want it to be true.

00:14:49.000 They're hoping for it to be true.

00:14:51.000 They're trying to help it to become true.

00:14:53.000 That's exactly right.

00:14:55.000 And I also believe that these pollsters were also cowards because I don't think they actually wanted to publish any good news for Trump.

00:15:04.000 And I am of the belief that if the president had at least some sequence of positive polling, it would have been a half point boost, especially in early voting.

00:15:12.000 There were people that believed in October that Trump stood no chance whatsoever, and they didn't do that extra lift of activism.

00:15:20.000 They didn't do that extra, you know, get out the vote effort.

00:15:23.000 And I also believe that the polls were supposed to condition the landscape for the voter fraud that they were going to then engage in.

00:15:30.000 They wanted the polls to give them the cover fire so that when if they had to steal it over and above the top on the margins, all of a sudden there was previous social conditioning that would then show it.

00:15:41.000 I mean, Ohio is a great example.

00:15:43.000 Why are you saying I was curious how things ended up in Ohio?

00:15:47.000 Trump won Ohio by about eight points.

00:15:49.000 I mean, that's a blowout.

00:15:51.000 Ohio used to be a competitive state.

00:15:53.000 Obama won Ohio twice. 1.00

00:15:55.000 And that Quinnia Pak, Quinnipiac, I can never pronounce it correctly, nor do they actually deserve a correct pronunciation because they're all con artists. 1.00

00:16:03.000 So Quinnipiak or whatever, plus four. 0.87

00:16:06.000 That's a 12-point error.

00:16:08.000 How can you be that wrong?

00:16:09.000 Like, what is the tabulation that they're using?

00:16:14.000 Are they just going to Democrat meetings and asking people who they're voting for?

00:16:17.000 Yeah, I think I suspect with that Quinnipiak poll, and I can get into why they are always slanting to the left because it's their data collection mode that they favor in polling.

00:16:26.000 But with that specific Quinnipiak poll, the other day I accused them of this, and I'm telling you, I want to see their data sets.

00:16:33.000 I stand by it.

00:16:34.000 Three days before they released a poll that was about 1,100 likely voters, so they said their final poll was about 1,400.

00:16:42.000 I strongly suspect since the result was almost exactly the same, I strongly suspect, Charlie, they just took the first data set, collected a few hundred more responses, threw it on top of the initial data set, and called it a different poll because the likelihood, the statistical likelihood of them coming up with the same margins, basically, all but one.

00:17:03.000 The only difference was Biden was one point less.

00:17:07.000 The likelihood of that is basically nil is because you were that wrong.

00:17:12.000 And the reason why they are is a big, they favor live caller in media and the university polls.

00:17:18.000 They favor live caller polling, which to cell phones, to landlines, it doesn't really matter, is going to skew more metro, I would say, not just urban, but metro.

00:17:28.000 So when you're a Republican, you're going to get the Bill Crystal kind of Republican, the Mitt Romney kind of Republican, and they don't represent the Republican Party.

00:17:37.000 Working class, not just conservative, but working class people, more conservative people, basically anybody outside of a metro area are far less likely to participate in those polls.

00:17:47.000 That's why we are big believers in mixed mode.

00:17:51.000 Every group of or different groups of people respond to different modes at different rates.

00:17:56.000 And if you want to reach a representative sample, you have got to use different tools in your box to reach different people.

00:18:03.000 And they refuse to do that.

00:18:04.000 Some of that's money.

00:18:05.000 Some of that's status quo.

00:18:07.000 It's the most expensive mode there is.

00:18:10.000 But then also some of it is, it's a boys club and they've been doing it like that for years.

00:18:14.000 They don't want to change.

00:18:15.000 And they call it the gold standard.

00:18:17.000 It is not the gold.

00:18:18.000 It's not even close.

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00:19:11.000 So Richard, I want you to walk through now the irregularities.

00:19:17.000 And so you've been unafraid to talk about this.

00:19:20.000 That's probably why you were banned from Twitter.

00:19:22.000 And also, we have a board here.

00:19:25.000 Republicans won 27 out of 27 toss-up races.

00:19:29.000 Republicans flipped three state legislatures, flipped the governor's mansion, won Senate races that they thought were over with, Tom Tillis being one of them, and Susan Collins, which was one of the worst polling errors throughout this entire sequence of events.

00:19:44.000 Can you talk about some of the mathematical anomalies that you saw in some of the key states?

00:19:50.000 And we are actually, and this is what led to the suspension, I have no doubt, on Twitter.

00:19:50.000 Right.

00:19:56.000 But we saw, like other people saw, you know, people going on Twitter and saying, hey, look, I have a dead voter here in the state of Michigan.

00:20:02.000 And the reason why we decided to take this up, Charlie, is because, like I said before, the polls didn't say Joe Biden was going to win because Milwaukee was going to have record turnout that is now approaching mandatory voting nation turnout levels, all right, or Philadelphia.

00:20:15.000 If you look around the country, there are certain areas where Joe Biden outperformed Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton among same demographics in other areas, though non-competitive areas.

00:20:26.000 He did not.

00:20:26.000 I know what their excuse will be for that, but the fact of the matter is, this turnout is high.

00:20:31.000 It's high to the point where more than historically high.

00:20:34.000 And it's not something you could just easily attribute to population growth.

00:20:38.000 Now, it may or may not be legitimate, but it's worth investigating.

00:20:42.000 And we pulled because we have the resources, we started to pull voter files on when you do.

00:20:47.000 Usually by default, you'll exclude dead people, you'll exclude change of address flags.

00:20:51.000 But that's actually the low-hanging fruit when you're looking at whether or not there was election for all, right?

00:20:56.000 So we pulled them instead.

00:20:58.000 And lo and behold, they're there.

00:21:00.000 And I mean they're there by if you look at the Secretary of States in various battleground states and you look at some of these records, we can see these people submitted absentee ballots.

00:21:10.000 And the point we're at now is them saying, well, it doesn't necessarily mean they voted.

00:21:16.000 The number is very large.

00:21:19.000 And looking at the rejection rate for absentee ballots, you know, well, by the time we're done, there's no doubt we're going to find records, lots of them, that they simply cannot explain.

00:21:29.000 And PolitiFat called, asked me if they could see it.

00:21:32.000 I said no.

00:21:33.000 I said, you'll see it when I'm done with it, just like everybody else will see it when you're done.

00:21:36.000 It's an investigation we're conducting.

00:21:38.000 You're going to wait, just like everybody else.

00:21:40.000 You're not special.

00:21:40.000 Soon as I did that, about an hour later, I was gone.

00:21:43.000 And that, so they wanted to get that to run.

00:21:46.000 What I think, honestly, is that they were going to take those records and run to the Secretary of States and try to help them clean it up.

00:21:53.000 And so, can you talk about some of the other mathematical impossibilities that we've seen?

00:21:58.000 The data dumps, the votes that have been switched, how there was a red wave in all but four cities.

00:22:04.000 You view data.

00:22:05.000 I mean, what are we looking at here?

00:22:07.000 I've said that there is no way that they could come to some of these numbers without cheating.

00:22:11.000 A great one that we have here is Dane County, Wisconsin.

00:22:14.000 You know, Dane County.

00:22:15.000 University of Wisconsin-Madison is mostly closed right now.

00:22:18.000 It's one of the biggest voting centers.

00:22:20.000 Typically, if it's a usual fall, they'll have 45 to 50,000 students on campus.

00:22:26.000 They are in a much reduced fashion.

00:22:29.000 They're about 5,000 or 6,000 at most, and most of them are kind of commuter students.

00:22:34.000 And yet, Joe Biden got 260,000 votes in Dane County.

00:22:40.000 Hillary got 217,000.

00:22:42.000 Obama got 215,000.

00:22:44.000 That county, I think, is a very interesting one to study because Biden overperformed even Obama and Hillary's numbers with UW-Madison being closed.

00:22:55.000 I'm from the Midwest.

00:22:56.000 UW-Madison is one of the most liberal, one of the most easy GOTV low-hanging fruit for Democrats.

00:23:02.000 How would something like that be possible?

00:23:05.000 Yeah, so they're going to say, and this I'm just giving you the devil's advocate version, but they're going to say, well, we made it so easy for them to vote.

00:23:12.000 And if you, you know, because of the work you do, I don't have to tell you.

00:23:15.000 And I spent a lot of years at UF and other places.

00:23:18.000 You have to hold their hand and walk them to go vote.

00:23:22.000 I mean, this is an operation that takes time.

00:23:25.000 And the idea that they got, you know, mailed out to them and they, it just doesn't make any sense.

00:23:29.000 And then they're not presently there.

00:23:31.000 But also, it's a matter for me.

00:23:32.000 I look at this from like a population growth standpoint.

00:23:35.000 Philadelphia is another one.

00:23:36.000 These are depressed areas right now.

00:23:39.000 They're not booming.

00:23:40.000 Atlanta is the one exception, no doubt.

00:23:42.000 But if you look at Texas, which actually is not only comparable to Atlanta in growth, but exceeding it in their two largest metro areas, Trump still handily carried the state.

00:23:52.000 And the growth rate, the increase in the share of votes was substantial, but it was, you could explain it.

00:23:59.000 We're not talking about growth in places like this, folks.

00:24:02.000 So they just expect, you know, that what they want us all to believe is that Joe Biden got people to take time out of their day to vote for him.

00:24:12.000 And it breaks basically, you know, every law that we have seen over the last maybe five or six decades of public polling, which is that if you have a candidate who is trailing with enthusiasm, then the other candidate is going to have a turnout advantage.

00:24:28.000 All right.

00:24:29.000 It may not be enough, but in the end, there is a turnout advantage, meaning they'll make up a larger share of the electorate than their party should because of their actual base number.

00:24:38.000 And then also whether you're voting for or against another candidate.

00:24:42.000 You know, that's saying in 2016, love Trump's hate, but in politics, it's really true.

00:24:47.000 Mitt Romney could not use hatred of Barack Obama to get out enough people.

00:24:51.000 Same thing goes for John Kerry.

00:24:53.000 He could not use enough, he couldn't use hatred to get enough people to come out to beat George W. Bush.

00:24:59.000 There are all of these historical anomalies.

00:25:02.000 And going into this thing, polling was really the only so-called predictive indicator that didn't point to a Trump re-election.

00:25:10.000 It's very difficult to defeat an incumbent president, number one.

00:25:13.000 Number two, the base always comes out in higher numbers to defend their president.

00:25:19.000 And that happened again.

00:25:20.000 And it just doesn't, again, it doesn't make a lot of sense to me, which is why I thought it was worthwhile to look into some of this stuff because Joe Biden is not an exciting candidate.

00:25:31.000 And some of the things that we were told, Friday, going into Philadelphia, we got their total numbers for absentee ballots.

00:25:38.000 On Tuesday morning, they gave us their updated number.

00:25:42.000 In total, folks, Philadelphia told us they were going to have about 650,000 votes.

00:25:48.000 That is what it pointed to.

00:25:49.000 And we looked at it and we said, yep, that's about the same as we saw with Hillary, about the same that we saw with Barack Obama.

00:25:56.000 Not that big of an increase, which is what you should expect because there is no growth in population.

00:26:02.000 And in the end, these ballots just kept trickling in.

00:26:04.000 How many came in from Philadelphia in the end?

00:26:06.000 Yeah, we're not done yet, Charlie.

00:26:08.000 I mean, we're not done yet.

00:26:10.000 I wish I could answer that question.

00:26:12.000 But right now, we're looking at, we're really, I mean, again, we're approaching mandatory voting turnout levels.

00:26:18.000 If you look at just the people who are actually eligible to vote, which is what we do.

00:26:21.000 And I would tell people that to understand, just because you see how many people are registered to vote in an area does not mean that you could even expect that many people to come out because the state is always behind.

00:26:34.000 Being on the voter rolls is not the same thing as being eligible to vote.

00:26:38.000 So if you look at a place and there's 8 million registered voters, there are going to be change of address flags on there.

00:26:44.000 There are going to be deceased voters on there.

00:26:46.000 So you never expect 1.1 or million to come out in an area where there's 1.1 million registered voters.

00:26:53.000 And right now, we're in the level in places like Philadelphia and Milwaukee, where it's just, it's unbelievable.

00:27:00.000 I mean, they're just, you have to, that's the word.

00:27:02.000 There's no other word for it, but unbelievable.

00:27:04.000 Yeah.

00:27:05.000 And you're not allowed to ask any questions.

00:27:07.000 And if you do, you get beat, you know, you get called a terrible person.

00:27:10.000 And even in Australia, we had an Australian pastor on our live stream.

00:27:14.000 He said that 10% of people will say, like, screw you, I'll get fined even if there's mandatory voting.

00:27:20.000 Even with mandatory voting, they can't get these numbers.

00:27:24.000 That's exactly right.

00:27:25.000 And we were actually using Australia to compare some of these things.

00:27:28.000 It's a good baseline because you have a part of a sector of the population that's still, like you said, like your guest said, they'll just say, you know what?

00:27:36.000 I don't care.

00:27:37.000 Fine me.

00:27:38.000 So that's a pretty good baseline considering how Americans are.

00:27:42.000 Some Americans are just never going to vote.

00:27:43.000 That's sad, but that's just the way it is.

00:27:45.000 And the idea that some of these precincts could be comparable to places like Australia, it's just nuts, guys.

00:27:50.000 I mean, strange credulity.

00:27:52.000 Come on.

00:27:54.000 Joe Biden juiced these voters and got them out when Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton could not.

00:28:00.000 At least Hillary was the first woman, you know, first female presidential candidate, but it's more than that.

00:28:06.000 He didn't have a get out-the-vote operation.

00:28:08.000 I can't explain how important that is. 0.93

00:28:10.000 Hillary Clinton had decades of relationships with these communities in places like Philadelphia with the African-American community.

00:28:17.000 She had decades, she nurtured these relationships.

00:28:21.000 She was a senator from a neighboring state.

00:28:24.000 I mean, just it, it really asking us to swallow a whole lot of historical firsts, and it's not going down with me.

00:28:33.000 It's just not going down.

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00:30:10.000 The idea of the absentee ballot rejection rate.

00:30:14.000 Can you talk about that in Georgia?

00:30:15.000 Typically, 4% of all ballots get rejected in Georgia.

00:30:19.000 Signature verification.

00:30:20.000 I mean, there's almost no ballots that got rejected this time with more ballots than ever before.

00:30:24.000 Right.

00:30:25.000 So when we expand it, the way we expanded it, you would think the rejection rates would go even higher, of course.

00:30:31.000 I mean, I don't know anybody who understands basic math who would disagree with that.

00:30:36.000 Yet it's less than a quarter, not just in Georgia, in a lot of these areas, less than a quarter.

00:30:41.000 It just doesn't make sense.

00:30:43.000 And if they didn't want people to ask these questions, then they should not have done what they did on election or the day after election day.

00:30:52.000 They told us, they told everybody, we're done for the night.

00:30:54.000 We're not counting anymore because the counting stopped in about six states in about six metro areas.

00:31:00.000 And we were calling like everybody else was calling.

00:31:02.000 What is going on?

00:31:03.000 What are you guys doing?

00:31:04.000 And they told us, you know what?

00:31:05.000 It's a skeleton crew over here.

00:31:07.000 We're shutting the lights off.

00:31:09.000 We're going home.

00:31:10.000 I knew that was not true, though.

00:31:11.000 I just knew it.

00:31:12.000 I felt it in my bones.

00:31:13.000 I knew there was something afoot.

00:31:15.000 I really did.

00:31:16.000 And about 4 a.m., they must have just drove around the block a couple of times, Charlie.

00:31:20.000 I don't think they went home.

00:31:21.000 They just drove around the block, hoping the watchers went home and, you know, some of the press would go home.

00:31:26.000 And then they just rolled right back in at about 4 a.m.

00:31:29.000 If you don't want scrutiny on you, if you don't want allegations, then you don't count votes in the dead of the night, early morning hours the way they did.

00:31:37.000 You just don't do it.

00:31:38.000 That's not how First World Nations operate.

00:31:41.000 It's just not.

00:31:43.000 So they say they're going home, and no one's ever asked this question.

00:31:46.000 If you said you were going home, then how'd you drop all the votes at 3 o'clock in the morning?

00:31:50.000 I thought you went home.

00:31:52.000 It's a very simple question.

00:31:54.000 I thought you called it a night.

00:31:56.000 And a skeleton crew, it is election night.

00:31:58.000 You know, that's sort of like the whole reason you exist.

00:32:01.000 They said that to us too, though, during the 2020 Democratic primary.

00:32:06.000 They did the same thing.

00:32:08.000 I just, we were talking about this the other day over here.

00:32:11.000 They did this.

00:32:11.000 It was interesting.

00:32:12.000 In the Rashida Tsalib race with the race out in Bucks County, they had, it was, you know, could be coincidence, but I don't believe in many coincidences. 0.96

00:32:23.000 You know, and then basically they were, they told us that they were going to go home. 0.95

00:32:26.000 Don't worry, it's a skeleton crew, but don't worry.

00:32:28.000 Still be able to count them in the morning really quick because we have these super fast tabulating machines.

00:32:33.000 They're brand new.

00:32:34.000 That is what we were told.

00:32:35.000 I'm not even kidding.

00:32:36.000 That's what we were told by Wayne County.

00:32:38.000 And we was 12 a.m., 1 a.m.

00:32:41.000 And Wayne County almost had no votes for us, very few votes.

00:32:44.000 And the rest of Michigan was reporting the results timely.

00:32:47.000 So it was an issue then.

00:32:49.000 We tried to say something then.

00:32:52.000 But, you know, hindsight's 2020, I guess.

00:32:54.000 Well, and Bernie Sanders probably had a lot of his state stolen from him under this sort of methodology because the power structure did not want Bernie Sanders to become the nominee.

00:33:04.000 Instead, it was they were trying to usher in Joe Biden and all that he, I don't know what he wants to do.

00:33:09.000 So walk us through further.

00:33:10.000 You got banned from Twitter for talking about something they didn't like.

00:33:15.000 Did they give you an explanation?

00:33:16.000 They did not.

00:33:18.000 And they banned my Twitter account.

00:33:21.000 They banned my wife's, who, I mean, really what she does is handle production for the show. 0.99

00:33:26.000 And she, I mean, she's the back end technical side of People's Planet Daily.

00:33:32.000 They banned Big Data Poll, the firm. 0.98

00:33:34.000 They banned PPD's Twitter account and myself.

00:33:36.000 They gave no email, no explanation.

00:33:39.000 The only one they did respond to, Charlie, was me.

00:33:43.000 After I went on Tucker because he had heard about what happened, they brought me on Tucker.

00:33:47.000 About an hour later, I had an email and I was back.

00:33:50.000 Big Data Poll just magically reappeared because probably because that's what we spoke about on the show and there was a backlash to it.

00:33:58.000 But the rest of them, still off, no explanation, still suspended.

00:34:02.000 They won't even respond at this point.

00:34:05.000 So, I mean, there was with mine, the one they did say was, well, you may be operating multiple Twitter accounts, but anybody who has a business knows you have your personal Twitter account, you have a business account, and then you have a tweet deck or, you know, a team.

00:34:20.000 And that's a Twitter's own feature.

00:34:21.000 So everybody from the business that has, you know, officer status or access has access to social media's account for that business.

00:34:29.000 So that was ridiculous.

00:34:30.000 I mean, they really are arbitrary in how they apply these rules. 0.69

00:34:34.000 What happened, what really happened was that I decided to investigate election fraud.

00:34:38.000 And the minute I didn't give it up to have it discredited, they shot me.

00:34:43.000 That's it.

00:34:44.000 Yeah.

00:34:45.000 And that's what they do.

00:34:46.000 They will come after anyone that they dare seem to be some form of a threat and will digitally assassinate you.

00:34:53.000 So we have hopefully a moment here where people can not trust the pollsters again and actually go and seek factual, reason-based, you know, kind of analysis and hopefully information.

00:35:12.000 Your website is doing that.

00:35:14.000 Tell us about some of your ambitions to actually fill the void because there's 73 million people out there minimum and probably a lot of Democrats too that will never trust the pollsters again.

00:35:24.000 Yeah, so I really think, and this is speaking as somebody who has polled for media outlets before.

00:35:29.000 I polled for the Epoch Times, you know, but that was a very different relationship.

00:35:33.000 I'm really coming to the point now where this has to be kind of consumer-driven, I think, Charlie.

00:35:39.000 I really do.

00:35:40.000 When we ran the public polling project on Big Data Poll, it was viewers of the podcast.

00:35:45.000 They told me what states they wanted polled.

00:35:48.000 And we would basically poll them.

00:35:50.000 Hey, which one do you want next?

00:35:51.000 The winner would get polled, and then we'd go down the list.

00:35:54.000 It really has to be something totally different.

00:35:57.000 And what we were trying to show people was not just better results or more accurate results.

00:36:02.000 We were trying to show them how much they hide from them, right?

00:36:06.000 So it shouldn't be good anymore to see a headline: candidate A plus three, because we said so.

00:36:12.000 That really has to be over.

00:36:14.000 We have to demand more from pollsters because there's so much that they do keep from you guys.

00:36:20.000 And we wanted to show everybody that.

00:36:21.000 That was the whole point of that.

00:36:23.000 Look at what I can show you that you're not getting from CNN's poll.

00:36:27.000 Look at what I could show you that you're not getting from pollster A, pollster B.

00:36:31.000 Those are, I guess, our aspirations moving forward.

00:36:34.000 There is a better way to do this, and it takes out the pressure.

00:36:38.000 I'm sure they do feel pressure.

00:36:40.000 I'm sure they do.

00:36:41.000 But that's not their job to cave to pressure because their media outlet and their client wants some form of result.

00:36:47.000 Their job is to, it's basically a public service job.

00:36:51.000 You know, in Europe, they don't have the same issues we have.

00:36:54.000 And I'm trying to figure out a way forward where, you know, we could make this, we can return this to being a public service.

00:37:01.000 And that's the way to do it.

00:37:02.000 So the consumer has to demand more, and there has to be options out there where they can get that transparency.

00:37:09.000 And that's what we're trying to do.

00:37:11.000 So we have about a minute and a half remaining.

00:37:13.000 You know polling, you know, data, you know this.

00:37:15.000 Tell us what's going on in the Georgia Senate runoffs.

00:37:18.000 So this is going to be close.

00:37:20.000 And we are probably going to release publicly a poll in Georgia.

00:37:24.000 Lawfler is not as strong as Purdue.

00:37:26.000 There's no doubt about it.

00:37:27.000 Talking about naturally.

00:37:29.000 Purdue has a good name.

00:37:30.000 He's looked on pretty favorably.

00:37:32.000 But in the end, it's not just who votes, but who counts these votes, folks.

00:37:36.000 And I would tell everybody who's mad at what they're seeing right now.

00:37:39.000 You know, I told them everybody before, get involved, be a poll watcher.

00:37:43.000 But in the mid, even short to long term, you need to get more involved on an official level because there are a lot of these ballots already being sent out again. 0.70

00:37:54.000 Stacey Abrams essentially hijacked the process over there and they're allowing it.

00:37:59.000 So the governor of Georgia, the Secretary of State, two Republicans, they're allowing this.

00:38:04.000 And in Georgia, voters are treated differently as far as verification procedures when you have a person who votes on election day in person or if you have somebody who votes by mail.

00:38:15.000 The process is very, you're asking for fraud in the mail-in process.

00:38:21.000 And it's so I would tell you know Republicans, they better take this very seriously because you could lose one or both seats if you sleep on this thing.

00:38:28.000 It's January 5th and people are not going.

00:38:31.000 It's going to be right after the holidays.

00:38:33.000 That is already not a favorable time for conservatives to have a big turnout.

00:38:37.000 You got to keep your eye on the ball here because they have their template.

00:38:41.000 They know how to move forward and they're pressing forward.

00:38:44.000 Yeah, the message has to be avenge the steal.

00:38:48.000 And then they would win both those races.

00:38:50.000 We'll see if they embrace that or some consultant gets in the way.

00:38:53.000 All right.

00:38:53.000 Thank you so much, my friend.

00:38:55.000 We'll have you back on your terrific big data poll, peoplespundantdaily.com.

00:39:01.000 You actually tell the truth, which is so rare.

00:39:04.000 You have a big career.

00:39:05.000 By the next election cycle, I expect you to be bigger than Nate Silver.

00:39:09.000 I'm going to hold you to that.

00:39:09.000 And I'm going to help any way I can so these con men can get off the airways.

00:39:14.000 Thanks so much, my friend.

00:39:14.000 See you soon.

00:39:18.000 Thanks so much for listening, everybody.

00:39:19.000 If you want to email us your questions, you can always do that at freedom at charliekirk.com.

00:39:23.000 If you want to get involved with TurningPointUSA, it's tpusa.com.

00:39:27.000 And please consider supporting us at charliekirk.com/slash support.

00:39:31.000 Big updates coming this week.

00:39:33.000 So make sure you're subscribed to the Charlie Kirk Show.

00:39:35.000 Type in Charlie Kirk Show to your podcast provider and hit subscribe.

00:39:39.000 Thanks so much, everybody.

00:39:40.000 God bless.

The Charlie Kirk Show - November 22, 2020

Data Shows the Election Was Stolen with Big Data Poll's Richard Baris

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