00:00:08.000He got so much right while everyone else got so much wrong.
00:00:11.000We have a lot to learn from him about the death of polling, the Georgia Senate runoff, and also the state of election fraud in our country.
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00:02:50.000So I started to see your tweets as I was crisscrossing the country.
00:02:56.000We did 100 speeches at Turning Point Action in like 90 days in support of the president.
00:03:00.000And I started to realize that the public polling that was being published by all of these, you know, pseudo-con men like Nate Silver and the Cook Political Report were so completely inconsistent with what I was seeing on the ground with even just some of the early voting numbers that were coming in, specifically in Florida.
00:03:23.000And so, as you all know, the early voting numbers in Florida were very favorable for Republicans, but almost none of that was being reflected in a lot of the mass news coverage.
00:03:32.000But you were one of the few people alongside Larry Schweikert and others that really caught my attention.
00:03:36.000I was like, wow, there's this really cool kind of disaggregated, decentralized, grassrootsy data community that's actually doing the work that Nate Silver says he's doing.
00:03:55.000I am the editor of People's Pundit Daily, but I'm the director of Big Data Poll.
00:04:00.000And People's Pundit Daily does have an election projection model.
00:04:02.000We put it to the side this year because we did the public polling project, which did, like you were saying, found very different results than what other people were finding.
00:04:36.000And a lot of people ignored it because the Democrats took the control of the House of Representatives.
00:04:41.000But they missed that the state level polling was horrible.
00:04:44.000So we went into 2020 again and thought we should do something different, more transparent, unlike the work you'll see on those other websites.
00:05:09.000And at least you were covering data on the People's Pundit Daily and the big data poll that would at least add a little bit of nuance to the predominant narrative.
00:05:19.000And I have a screenshot of Nate Silver's website two weeks before the election.
00:05:24.000And it made me so angry because I knew it wasn't true.
00:05:27.000And he had one of these tweets that he retweeted where he's, I said, I'm so sick and tired of hearing people that say what it's like on the ground.
00:05:36.000Have you left your five square radius of wherever you live in DC or New York where you have to wear a mask from your knees to your forehead?
00:05:43.000Like, have you ever left there and talked to a regular human being in a place called Iowa, a far distant land?
00:05:48.000Or maybe even have you visited Florida recently?
00:07:07.000They're just very, they're very good IT people.
00:07:10.000They have very good website design people and they have a very good PR team, right?
00:07:14.000So they get very favorable media coverage.
00:07:16.000They have very cool looking websites, but they don't know what they're doing or what they're talking about.
00:07:21.000They are completely out of touch with the country and they're never going to get any better until the polls get better because they just read the polls.
00:07:28.000And how wrong these polls were, it's really so much deeper than, you know, Biden plus here, Biden plus there.
00:07:35.000They didn't tell us that Biden was going to win because he was going to win huge, unheard of vote.
00:07:41.000He was going to win vote totals in urban and metro areas that were unheard of before, even in the era of Barack Obama.
00:07:48.000They said that Obama was going to win because Trump was losing parts of his base, right?
00:08:18.000All of the counties that Donald Trump flipped in the eastern part and the northern part of Iowa, they went for Barack Obama twice, and he flipped all of them in 2016.
00:09:15.000The Cook political report, which really bothered me because they have such a smug way about them, and they go on certain television networks that I watch more than not.
00:09:24.000And I'll never forget, I wrote it down and they ended up saying this was their prediction.
00:09:29.000They had 27 what they called competitive house races.
00:09:38.000And then The Economist, which again is another far left-wing hack job, said that Nancy Pelosi would get 244 seats in the House.
00:09:49.000I think that she'll get around 221 to 225.
00:09:52.000That's probably where she's going to land.
00:09:54.000We don't know because we're still counting votes as we've entered the third world in our voting tabulation processes in our country.
00:10:01.000But so can you answer, is it the methodology of how they're doing polling or is it how they're analyzing the polling?
00:10:09.000That's where I'm under, I can't quite square that.
00:10:13.000Yeah, so I'm pretty sure, you know, I think it's safe to say that I think they've always been overrated, right?
00:10:19.000And it's not a coincidence that they have gotten less accurate the more inaccurate polling has become.
00:10:25.000And that is really what I have to stress to everybody, if anything, if nothing else.
00:10:30.000If you try to get in the weeds with these guys, and I have to say Larry at the crystal ball, he's at least, you know, been all right, but some of them are just not.
00:10:38.000If you're an outsider, though, I mean, you are not welcome in this game.
00:10:42.000And if you try to engage them with, hey, what about this?
00:10:45.000And you try to go into the weeds, the minutiae, they don't know what you're talking about.
00:10:49.000I'm thoroughly convinced at this point.
00:10:51.000I tried to explain to Nate Cohen why he would be wrong in Florida and why Dave Washerman was touting that polling as why Joe Biden was going to win the state of Florida.
00:13:16.000Charlie, you can't make that kind of mistake.
00:13:17.000We polled, we took Ohio off the table in September because it was Trump plus 10.
00:13:22.000I mean, it was over and it was a waste of money.
00:13:24.000So people don't change their opinions like that.
00:13:26.000So that's either incompetence or it's intentional, right?
00:13:29.000There's no way to be this bad at your job, guys.
00:13:32.000If you're any other industry, if you're anyone else in what you think about what you do for a living, folks, if you were this bad at your job, would your boss let you continue to work there?
00:13:52.000And these are the questions we're going to have to start asking ourselves because at this point, when you're any kind of data research, you cannot let groupthink just completely seep in and control everything.
00:14:23.000You welcome people who don't see it the way the consensus is because you're supposed to be, like any other science, you're supposed to be challenging your own position.
00:14:31.000You're supposed to be challenging your own thoughts.
00:14:55.000And I also believe that these pollsters were also cowards because I don't think they actually wanted to publish any good news for Trump.
00:15:04.000And I am of the belief that if the president had at least some sequence of positive polling, it would have been a half point boost, especially in early voting.
00:15:12.000There were people that believed in October that Trump stood no chance whatsoever, and they didn't do that extra lift of activism.
00:15:20.000They didn't do that extra, you know, get out the vote effort.
00:15:23.000And I also believe that the polls were supposed to condition the landscape for the voter fraud that they were going to then engage in.
00:15:30.000They wanted the polls to give them the cover fire so that when if they had to steal it over and above the top on the margins, all of a sudden there was previous social conditioning that would then show it.
00:15:55.000And that Quinnia Pak, Quinnipiac, I can never pronounce it correctly, nor do they actually deserve a correct pronunciation because they're all con artists.
00:16:09.000Like, what is the tabulation that they're using?
00:16:14.000Are they just going to Democrat meetings and asking people who they're voting for?
00:16:17.000Yeah, I think I suspect with that Quinnipiak poll, and I can get into why they are always slanting to the left because it's their data collection mode that they favor in polling.
00:16:26.000But with that specific Quinnipiak poll, the other day I accused them of this, and I'm telling you, I want to see their data sets.
00:16:34.000Three days before they released a poll that was about 1,100 likely voters, so they said their final poll was about 1,400.
00:16:42.000I strongly suspect since the result was almost exactly the same, I strongly suspect, Charlie, they just took the first data set, collected a few hundred more responses, threw it on top of the initial data set, and called it a different poll because the likelihood, the statistical likelihood of them coming up with the same margins, basically, all but one.
00:17:03.000The only difference was Biden was one point less.
00:17:07.000The likelihood of that is basically nil is because you were that wrong.
00:17:12.000And the reason why they are is a big, they favor live caller in media and the university polls.
00:17:18.000They favor live caller polling, which to cell phones, to landlines, it doesn't really matter, is going to skew more metro, I would say, not just urban, but metro.
00:17:28.000So when you're a Republican, you're going to get the Bill Crystal kind of Republican, the Mitt Romney kind of Republican, and they don't represent the Republican Party.
00:17:37.000Working class, not just conservative, but working class people, more conservative people, basically anybody outside of a metro area are far less likely to participate in those polls.
00:17:47.000That's why we are big believers in mixed mode.
00:17:51.000Every group of or different groups of people respond to different modes at different rates.
00:17:56.000And if you want to reach a representative sample, you have got to use different tools in your box to reach different people.
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00:19:25.000Republicans won 27 out of 27 toss-up races.
00:19:29.000Republicans flipped three state legislatures, flipped the governor's mansion, won Senate races that they thought were over with, Tom Tillis being one of them, and Susan Collins, which was one of the worst polling errors throughout this entire sequence of events.
00:19:44.000Can you talk about some of the mathematical anomalies that you saw in some of the key states?
00:19:50.000And we are actually, and this is what led to the suspension, I have no doubt, on Twitter.
00:19:56.000But we saw, like other people saw, you know, people going on Twitter and saying, hey, look, I have a dead voter here in the state of Michigan.
00:20:02.000And the reason why we decided to take this up, Charlie, is because, like I said before, the polls didn't say Joe Biden was going to win because Milwaukee was going to have record turnout that is now approaching mandatory voting nation turnout levels, all right, or Philadelphia.
00:20:15.000If you look around the country, there are certain areas where Joe Biden outperformed Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton among same demographics in other areas, though non-competitive areas.
00:21:00.000And I mean they're there by if you look at the Secretary of States in various battleground states and you look at some of these records, we can see these people submitted absentee ballots.
00:21:10.000And the point we're at now is them saying, well, it doesn't necessarily mean they voted.
00:21:19.000And looking at the rejection rate for absentee ballots, you know, well, by the time we're done, there's no doubt we're going to find records, lots of them, that they simply cannot explain.
00:21:29.000And PolitiFat called, asked me if they could see it.
00:22:44.000That county, I think, is a very interesting one to study because Biden overperformed even Obama and Hillary's numbers with UW-Madison being closed.
00:22:56.000UW-Madison is one of the most liberal, one of the most easy GOTV low-hanging fruit for Democrats.
00:23:02.000How would something like that be possible?
00:23:05.000Yeah, so they're going to say, and this I'm just giving you the devil's advocate version, but they're going to say, well, we made it so easy for them to vote.
00:23:12.000And if you, you know, because of the work you do, I don't have to tell you.
00:23:15.000And I spent a lot of years at UF and other places.
00:23:18.000You have to hold their hand and walk them to go vote.
00:23:22.000I mean, this is an operation that takes time.
00:23:25.000And the idea that they got, you know, mailed out to them and they, it just doesn't make any sense.
00:23:40.000Atlanta is the one exception, no doubt.
00:23:42.000But if you look at Texas, which actually is not only comparable to Atlanta in growth, but exceeding it in their two largest metro areas, Trump still handily carried the state.
00:23:52.000And the growth rate, the increase in the share of votes was substantial, but it was, you could explain it.
00:23:59.000We're not talking about growth in places like this, folks.
00:24:02.000So they just expect, you know, that what they want us all to believe is that Joe Biden got people to take time out of their day to vote for him.
00:24:12.000And it breaks basically, you know, every law that we have seen over the last maybe five or six decades of public polling, which is that if you have a candidate who is trailing with enthusiasm, then the other candidate is going to have a turnout advantage.
00:24:29.000It may not be enough, but in the end, there is a turnout advantage, meaning they'll make up a larger share of the electorate than their party should because of their actual base number.
00:24:38.000And then also whether you're voting for or against another candidate.
00:24:42.000You know, that's saying in 2016, love Trump's hate, but in politics, it's really true.
00:24:47.000Mitt Romney could not use hatred of Barack Obama to get out enough people.
00:25:20.000And it just doesn't, again, it doesn't make a lot of sense to me, which is why I thought it was worthwhile to look into some of this stuff because Joe Biden is not an exciting candidate.
00:25:31.000And some of the things that we were told, Friday, going into Philadelphia, we got their total numbers for absentee ballots.
00:25:38.000On Tuesday morning, they gave us their updated number.
00:25:42.000In total, folks, Philadelphia told us they were going to have about 650,000 votes.
00:26:12.000But right now, we're looking at, we're really, I mean, again, we're approaching mandatory voting turnout levels.
00:26:18.000If you look at just the people who are actually eligible to vote, which is what we do.
00:26:21.000And I would tell people that to understand, just because you see how many people are registered to vote in an area does not mean that you could even expect that many people to come out because the state is always behind.
00:26:34.000Being on the voter rolls is not the same thing as being eligible to vote.
00:26:38.000So if you look at a place and there's 8 million registered voters, there are going to be change of address flags on there.
00:26:44.000There are going to be deceased voters on there.
00:26:46.000So you never expect 1.1 or million to come out in an area where there's 1.1 million registered voters.
00:26:53.000And right now, we're in the level in places like Philadelphia and Milwaukee, where it's just, it's unbelievable.
00:27:00.000I mean, they're just, you have to, that's the word.
00:27:02.000There's no other word for it, but unbelievable.
00:27:25.000And we were actually using Australia to compare some of these things.
00:27:28.000It's a good baseline because you have a part of a sector of the population that's still, like you said, like your guest said, they'll just say, you know what?
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00:30:43.000And if they didn't want people to ask these questions, then they should not have done what they did on election or the day after election day.
00:30:52.000They told us, they told everybody, we're done for the night.
00:30:54.000We're not counting anymore because the counting stopped in about six states in about six metro areas.
00:31:00.000And we were calling like everybody else was calling.
00:31:21.000They just drove around the block, hoping the watchers went home and, you know, some of the press would go home.
00:31:26.000And then they just rolled right back in at about 4 a.m.
00:31:29.000If you don't want scrutiny on you, if you don't want allegations, then you don't count votes in the dead of the night, early morning hours the way they did.
00:32:12.000In the Rashida Tsalib race with the race out in Bucks County, they had, it was, you know, could be coincidence, but I don't believe in many coincidences.
00:32:23.000You know, and then basically they were, they told us that they were going to go home.
00:32:26.000Don't worry, it's a skeleton crew, but don't worry.
00:32:28.000Still be able to count them in the morning really quick because we have these super fast tabulating machines.
00:32:52.000But, you know, hindsight's 2020, I guess.
00:32:54.000Well, and Bernie Sanders probably had a lot of his state stolen from him under this sort of methodology because the power structure did not want Bernie Sanders to become the nominee.
00:33:04.000Instead, it was they were trying to usher in Joe Biden and all that he, I don't know what he wants to do.
00:33:39.000The only one they did respond to, Charlie, was me.
00:33:43.000After I went on Tucker because he had heard about what happened, they brought me on Tucker.
00:33:47.000About an hour later, I had an email and I was back.
00:33:50.000Big Data Poll just magically reappeared because probably because that's what we spoke about on the show and there was a backlash to it.
00:33:58.000But the rest of them, still off, no explanation, still suspended.
00:34:02.000They won't even respond at this point.
00:34:05.000So, I mean, there was with mine, the one they did say was, well, you may be operating multiple Twitter accounts, but anybody who has a business knows you have your personal Twitter account, you have a business account, and then you have a tweet deck or, you know, a team.
00:34:46.000They will come after anyone that they dare seem to be some form of a threat and will digitally assassinate you.
00:34:53.000So we have hopefully a moment here where people can not trust the pollsters again and actually go and seek factual, reason-based, you know, kind of analysis and hopefully information.
00:35:14.000Tell us about some of your ambitions to actually fill the void because there's 73 million people out there minimum and probably a lot of Democrats too that will never trust the pollsters again.
00:35:24.000Yeah, so I really think, and this is speaking as somebody who has polled for media outlets before.
00:35:29.000I polled for the Epoch Times, you know, but that was a very different relationship.
00:35:33.000I'm really coming to the point now where this has to be kind of consumer-driven, I think, Charlie.
00:37:32.000But in the end, it's not just who votes, but who counts these votes, folks.
00:37:36.000And I would tell everybody who's mad at what they're seeing right now.
00:37:39.000You know, I told them everybody before, get involved, be a poll watcher.
00:37:43.000But in the mid, even short to long term, you need to get more involved on an official level because there are a lot of these ballots already being sent out again.
00:37:54.000Stacey Abrams essentially hijacked the process over there and they're allowing it.
00:37:59.000So the governor of Georgia, the Secretary of State, two Republicans, they're allowing this.
00:38:04.000And in Georgia, voters are treated differently as far as verification procedures when you have a person who votes on election day in person or if you have somebody who votes by mail.
00:38:15.000The process is very, you're asking for fraud in the mail-in process.
00:38:21.000And it's so I would tell you know Republicans, they better take this very seriously because you could lose one or both seats if you sleep on this thing.
00:38:28.000It's January 5th and people are not going.
00:38:31.000It's going to be right after the holidays.
00:38:33.000That is already not a favorable time for conservatives to have a big turnout.
00:38:37.000You got to keep your eye on the ball here because they have their template.
00:38:41.000They know how to move forward and they're pressing forward.
00:38:44.000Yeah, the message has to be avenge the steal.
00:38:48.000And then they would win both those races.
00:38:50.000We'll see if they embrace that or some consultant gets in the way.