The Charlie Kirk Show - Did We Do Enough to Save the Country?

00:00:00.000 Hey everybody, a super episode all about voting.

00:00:02.000 You need to go find a new voter, and of course, vote yourself.

00:00:05.000 Make a hundred text messages right now.

00:00:08.000 The Trump movement is coming to an end.

00:00:10.000 What are you going to do about it to save the country?

00:00:12.000 Email us, as always, freedom at charliekirk.com.

00:00:14.000 Subscribe to our podcast.

00:00:16.000 Open up your podcast application and type in Charlie Kirk Show.

00:00:19.000 Buckle up, everybody.

00:00:19.000 Here we go.

00:00:20.000 Charlie, what you've done is incredible here.

00:00:22.000 Maybe Charlie Kirk is on the college campus.

00:00:24.000 I want you to know we are lucky to have Charlie Kirk.

00:00:27.000 Charlie Kirk's running the White House, folks.

00:00:31.000 I want to thank Charlie.

00:00:32.000 He's an incredible guy.

00:00:33.000 His spirit, his love of this country, he's done an amazing job building one of the most powerful youth organizations ever created, Turning Point USA. We will not embrace the ideas that have destroyed countries, destroyed lives, and we are going to fight for freedom on campuses across the country.

00:00:50.000 That's why we are here.

00:00:53.000 Noble Gold Investments is the official gold sponsor of The Charlie Kirk Show, a company that specializes in gold IRAs and physical delivery of precious metals.

00:01:03.000 Learn how you can protect your wealth with Noble Gold Investments at noblegoldinvestments.com.

00:01:10.000 That is noblegoldinvestments.com.

00:01:12.000 It's where I buy all of my gold.

00:01:14.000 Go to noblegoldinvestments.com.

00:01:18.000 Let's get straight to Steve Bannon.

00:01:20.000 Steve, welcome to the program.

00:01:21.000 Steve, I've been doing your show all weekend.

00:01:23.000 We've been doing super chase events.

00:01:25.000 We right now are crushing the Democrats in early voting right now in Arizona as we are chasing ballots.

00:01:31.000 Steve, what are the marching orders to the faithful right now as we are going in to the final chapter of this Trump story?

00:01:38.000 Charlie, I mean, you've been doing this for years.

00:01:40.000 I think what's so amazing is that this is all coming together.

00:01:42.000 If you told us four years ago, Charlie, that on the Eva battle here, political battle, we would be perfectly positioned that they would not have a firewall in any of these states, particularly in Pennsylvania, that we would have crushed them on early voting, which, as you know, people were very hesitant about. 0.90

00:01:59.000 What's been so amazing in this grassroots effort, led by Charlie Kirk and the Turning Point Action people, and with the War Room Posse as the volunteers, is we've done two things.

00:02:09.000 Number one, we've totally changed the makeup of the electorate.

00:02:12.000 The registrations for Republicans have just exploded, whereas Democrats have kind of dropped and exploded.

00:02:20.000 That is all the Scott Pressler.

00:02:23.000 And the precinct strategy people, that's been amazing.

00:02:26.000 Number two is you sitting there and saying, here's the concept.

00:02:30.000 It's ballot chasing and here's how we're going to do it.

00:02:32.000 I'm going to put in an infrastructure, I'm going to train people, and those people are going to be a cadre, a cadre of leadership.

00:02:38.000 The convergence of those two have us teed up perfectly.

00:02:42.000 The Democrats don't know what's hit them.

00:02:43.000 On top of that, Just as you and I have talked about for the last couple of years, their messaging, their coalition is collapsing around them and our coalition is building.

00:02:53.000 We're adding the RFK. We're adding the Elon Musk.

00:02:57.000 We're adding the Tulsi Gabbard.

00:02:59.000 We're additive.

00:03:00.000 And we're adding Hispanics and African Americans and the Arab Americans in Dearborn and the Somalians in Minneapolis.

00:03:11.000 We're adding, and their traditional coalition, because they've taken it for granted and screwed those people over, is collapsing.

00:03:18.000 But the cadre, the tip of the tip of the spear, the precinct strategy and the turning point action, And you've had all these great events, AMFest, all of it, has led us to the point that we have structurally changed the architecture of the electorate that will show up tomorrow.

00:03:34.000 And you taught people the concept of how you've got to get active, that it is a voting month.

00:03:40.000 And as much as we hate the machines, you heard Tucker hate the machines, you've got to get out there, we've got to power through that, then we'll get rid of the machines.

00:03:46.000 But this is historic.

00:03:48.000 Now, the only thing that matters is what happens tomorrow On game day.

00:03:55.000 We have to play the game now.

00:03:57.000 You hear all this Bill of the Super Bowl and some of the teams don't perform.

00:03:59.000 If we perform, given everything that's been done, the prep work, we could have a victory, we could have a big victory, but it's all in the balance.

00:04:07.000 It has not happened.

00:04:08.000 And what concerns me, I gave Newsweek an interview last night this morning, is the only thing that concerns me is complacency.

00:04:14.000 That's right.

00:04:15.000 And people saying, oh, you know, this is going to be a landslide.

00:04:17.000 I saw the polling.

00:04:18.000 Forget the polling.

00:04:19.000 Forget the polling.

00:04:21.000 We have got to go deliver.

00:04:23.000 We have to enforce our will onto history, and we can do that tomorrow with the tip of the spear of the cadre of the war room posse, the precinct strategy, turning point action, all of it converging into one amazingly powerful force, sir.

00:04:39.000 And Steve, everyone in the audience needs to be a force multiplier.

00:04:42.000 This is not a spectator sport.

00:04:43.000 You've got to empty your phone and text every single person that you know.

00:04:47.000 If we do not show up tomorrow, it will be the greatest unrealized opportunity in American history.

00:04:52.000 Steve, do you agree with that?

00:04:53.000 The table is set.

00:04:54.000 We have every prerequisite and ingredient that we could have dreamed of.

00:04:57.000 Crushing them in early voting.

00:04:58.000 Their base is not turning out.

00:04:59.000 They don't have a firewall.

00:05:01.000 It's only down to two states.

00:05:02.000 Steve...

00:05:03.000 Back in 2016 when you were running the campaign, you needed to go 7-for-7, and you guys did.

00:05:07.000 You needed to do Iowa, Ohio, Florida, Georgia, Arizona.

00:05:10.000 You guys needed to run the table, and you did.

00:05:11.000 We gotta go 1-for-1 basically tomorrow.

00:05:15.000 We needed an insight straight.

00:05:16.000 We needed to draw to an insight straight in 2016.

00:05:19.000 Right now, because, by the way, why is Ohio no longer an issue?

00:05:22.000 Why is Florida no longer an issue?

00:05:24.000 It's because of the work of the grassroots to change.

00:05:26.000 It started with changing the electorate, right, and with Trump's message.

00:05:30.000 Now we're on the cusp.

00:05:31.000 North Carolina, here's what we've done.

00:05:33.000 Here's what has happened in the last six weeks.

00:05:35.000 Six weeks ago, as I taught in Danbury to the prisoners, she had multiple paths to victory.

00:05:40.000 That has all been consolidated now.

00:05:43.000 She's kind of backed into a corner, really, in the blue wall.

00:05:46.000 And that's why she's lived in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, basically, for the last couple of days.

00:05:51.000 They understand Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are the ones they're most worried about in the blue wall.

00:05:55.000 We have her backed into a corner. 0.93

00:05:57.000 Victory is at hand.

00:05:58.000 I said on September 26th, the only thing I released from Danbury was I gave a short thing of victories at hand.

00:06:04.000 The politics of Georgia was over.

00:06:06.000 She was going to pivot to the nightfalls in America.

00:06:08.000 It wasn't working.

00:06:09.000 It wasn't getting traction, but it was us.

00:06:11.000 It was the grassroots.

00:06:12.000 And look at the amazing deliverance the grassroots has had for this country.

00:06:17.000 All it takes is another two days.

00:06:20.000 You know, we power through today and getting everybody mobilized, and then tomorrow you turn out with everything people have to do.

00:06:26.000 Like I said, we're going to be doing coverage.

00:06:28.000 Charlie, I'll be with you.

00:06:30.000 The coverage tomorrow night, it doesn't matter.

00:06:32.000 Yes, we want to find out who's doing that and where we are in the election and make sure election integrity.

00:06:36.000 But it's during the day tomorrow that is the action.

00:06:40.000 Just remember, this audience, you're about to make history.

00:06:45.000 You're about to make history on something that will never be forgotten.

00:06:50.000 Next April is the 250th anniversary of Lexington and Concord, six months away from now.

00:06:57.000 This is the new shot heard around the world will be tomorrow, to rejuvenate this country and to get back to the revolutionary principles Of our framers.

00:07:07.000 And those heroes actually said, hey, we will take on an empire.

00:07:10.000 Hey, we're taking on the American empire.

00:07:12.000 And tomorrow is going to be a red letter day in that if we do the work, sir.

00:07:19.000 And it's just going to come down to the force multiplier energy as well.

00:07:23.000 I mean, look, Steve, we're looking on the margins here of Carrie Lake, which could profoundly change the U.S. Senate.

00:07:29.000 We're looking on the margins here of Bernie Moreno in Ohio.

00:07:33.000 Look, the Democrats, they are seeing the writing on the wall.

00:07:37.000 I was just texting with someone very senior in the Trump campaign.

00:07:40.000 I said, do you think we're going to win?

00:07:42.000 He said, if we show up, we win.

00:07:43.000 What a dream that is.

00:07:45.000 If we show up, we win.

00:07:47.000 That's the watchword.

00:07:48.000 And people remember, this is the culmination of four years of hard work.

00:07:53.000 President Trump, the political class, you know, basically turned their back on him in January, February of 2021.

00:07:59.000 Four years of hard work.

00:08:01.000 I go back to that Boston Herald.

00:08:02.000 I gave this talk to a Catholic group up in February.

00:08:05.000 This is from the February 15th of 2021.

00:08:08.000 We had the plan.

00:08:09.000 Could we get the policy and could we get turning point action, those young people, those young activists, to actually put their shoulder to the wheel?

00:08:16.000 They did it, and now we're on the cusp of it.

00:08:18.000 You couldn't ask us to be better positioned.

00:08:21.000 You don't need TV ads.

00:08:22.000 You don't need some meme.

00:08:23.000 You don't need Steve Bannon or Tucker Carlson or Charlie Kirk.

00:08:26.000 We need you.

00:08:27.000 This is where you grab American history by the throat and say, no, we're turning this country into a different direction that's based on our founding principles, and that Steve, last thing.

00:08:41.000 For nine years, you and I have been, in one way or another, behind the Trump movement.

00:08:45.000 It kind of comes to an end politically.

00:08:47.000 It comes to an end tomorrow.

00:08:48.000 Trump will not run again.

00:08:50.000 This is the sense of urgency here.

00:08:52.000 Steve, can you reflect on this nine-year arc of history and where this leads us?

00:08:56.000 Because you had a front row seat.

00:08:58.000 The audience has been there since he went down the escalator.

00:09:03.000 Politically, it ends tomorrow.

00:09:04.000 If we win, it's just the beginning.

00:09:06.000 But you've got 24 hours left to advocate for the man.

00:09:09.000 I hope you guys understand.

00:09:10.000 You will never be able to advocate for this guy politically.

00:09:12.000 Steve?

00:09:13.000 Well, we'll have many fights once we win, but tonight, that's why tonight's so important, and I'm so pleased that the campaign chose to go back to Grand Rapids, and you're going to be broadcasting, I hope to dip in, I don't want to miss this, kind of his last hurrah for an active political campaign, and then the victory tomorrow, but remember.

00:09:31.000 This guy, he's providential with all his flaws.

00:09:35.000 And he's the first to admit he's not perfect.

00:09:37.000 Lincoln wasn't perfect.

00:09:38.000 Washington wasn't perfect.

00:09:39.000 That's why he's the third most important president in this country.

00:09:42.000 Because when he had the last one stolen, he could have gone back and just, I'm gonna go do golf course.

00:09:48.000 I'm gonna do this.

00:09:49.000 I've had it.

00:09:49.000 No.

00:09:50.000 He knew in coming back That they were gonna put him in prison, they were gonna steal his company, they were gonna get the felonies.

00:09:58.000 All that was before him, and he still had the courage to say, no, I cannot let this go.

00:10:05.000 And that's why people rallied around him.

00:10:07.000 Remember, although we're nine or 10 years into this, Charlie, and through a few more of the Tea Party movement, We're at the top of the first inning in the populist nationalist movement in this country.

00:10:18.000 The top of the first inning.

00:10:20.000 President Trump will go down as the third most important president in the United States.

00:10:23.000 It's General Washington, Abraham Lincoln, and now this new American revolution led by President Trump.

00:10:30.000 He's like from the Roman Republic, the early legends of the Roman Republic, Cincinnati.

00:10:36.000 He returned from his plow to come back and save the Republic.

00:10:39.000 That's what this is about.

00:10:41.000 There's no amount of gratitude we could give this guy.

00:10:44.000 He's a warrior.

00:10:46.000 And by the way, on the 26th of November, he gets sentenced to prison by this hacked judge in New York City.

00:10:51.000 This is the courage.

00:10:52.000 He is a profiling courage.

00:10:54.000 That's why push this over the goal tomorrow.

00:10:57.000 Make American history.

00:10:59.000 And then we get into the first of all, we get into the close because as Tucker said, don't think that the intelligence, legal, military, industrial complex, tech complex is going to sit there and go, hey, Charlie Kirk and these high college kids turned out and got more votes.

00:11:14.000 See you, brother.

00:11:15.000 I'll see you back here tonight for late coverage.

00:11:16.000 Make American history.

00:11:18.000 Tonight we'll be streaming the last MAGA rally live.

00:11:20.000 Steve, thank you so much.

00:11:21.000 You have 24 hours left to advocate for this man.

00:11:24.000 It's been nine years.

00:11:24.000 What are you going to do about it?

00:11:26.000 Donald Trump just got done with his fourth last.

00:11:30.000 Magorelli's got three more to go.

00:11:31.000 Three more to go.

00:11:33.000 And then it's done.

00:11:34.000 Finito.

00:11:36.000 The first ever MAGA rally was here in Phoenix, Arizona.

00:11:39.000 We will have Tyler Boyer tonight covering the last MAGA rally, and he will walk through from the first to the last.

00:11:45.000 He hosted the first ever MAGA rally as the Maricopa County GOP chair, and tonight is the last one ever.

00:11:53.000 So what are you going to do in the audience now that it is nine years?

00:11:58.000 For those of you that love Donald Trump, are you now going to go that extra mile?

00:12:01.000 Are you going to go empty your phone?

00:12:02.000 You need to text every single person in your phone.

00:12:05.000 I want to just take you back and just remind you how far we've come.

00:12:08.000 From this moment, all the way, to today.

00:12:12.000 Play Cut 26.

00:12:39.000 It's Donald Trump announcing going down that golden escalator.

00:12:43.000 This is an identical message from what he said on day one in June of 2015 till today.

00:12:49.000 Play cut 27.

00:12:51.000 Our country is in serious trouble.

00:12:54.000 We don't have victories anymore.

00:12:58.000 We used to have victories, but we don't have them.

00:13:01.000 When was the last time anybody saw us beating, let's say, China in a trade deal?

00:13:09.000 When did we beat Japan at anything?

00:13:14.000 When was the last time you saw a Chevrolet in Tokyo?

00:13:20.000 It doesn't exist, folks.

00:13:23.000 When do we beat Mexico at the border? 1.00

00:13:25.000 They're laughing at us, at our stupidity. 1.00

00:13:28.000 The US has become a dumping ground for everybody else's problems. 1.00

00:13:37.000 That was the beginning of the political movement, and that political movement ends tomorrow.

00:13:40.000 And for you in the audience right now, I want to hear from you, freedom at charliekirk.com.

00:13:44.000 Tell me the new voters that you have brought to the table.

00:13:47.000 And if you are planning to vote tomorrow, I want to hear from you, freedom at charliekirk.com.

00:13:51.000 This...

00:13:52.000 This nine-year arc of history ends tomorrow.

00:13:57.000 What are you going to do for that?

00:13:59.000 On Wednesday morning, you will never be able to volunteer for Trump again.

00:14:02.000 On Wednesday morning, you'll never be able to advocate for him again.

00:14:05.000 On Wednesday morning, it is done.

00:14:07.000 Yes, I mean, hopefully he'll be president, but it's all symbolic at that point because he's no longer going to be on the ticket.

00:14:12.000 He said he's not going to run again after this.

00:14:14.000 It's over.

00:14:15.000 If Donald Trump wins, the data shows you'll be $8,000 richer.

00:14:20.000 This is a longer clip.

00:14:21.000 This is him officially running for the presidency.

00:14:23.000 From 2015 to tomorrow morning, it's about to come to an end.

00:14:30.000 How will we finish it?

00:14:31.000 You can make American history.

00:14:33.000 Let me say that again.

00:14:34.000 You in this audience can make American history.

00:14:38.000 By telling every single one you know.

00:14:40.000 And open up your phone and texting everyone.

00:14:42.000 Have you voted?

00:14:43.000 Driving people to the polls.

00:14:44.000 No sitting on the couch these next two days.

00:14:47.000 If so, you might be handing the White House to Kamala Harris. 1.00

00:14:50.000 You need to be active.

00:14:51.000 You need to be loud. 0.98

00:14:52.000 You need to go nuts. 0.85

00:14:54.000 Playcut 31. 0.94

00:14:55.000 We need somebody that literally will take this country and make it great again.

00:15:03.000 We can do that.

00:15:05.000 And I will tell you...

00:15:09.000 I love my life.

00:15:10.000 I have a wonderful family.

00:15:13.000 They're saying, Dad, you're going to do something that's going to be so tough.

00:15:18.000 You know, all of my life I've heard that a truly successful person, a really, really successful person, and even modestly successful, cannot run for public office.

00:15:31.000 Just can't happen.

00:15:32.000 And yet, that's the kind of mindset that you need to make this country great again.

00:15:38.000 So, ladies and gentlemen, I am officially running for President of the United States, and we are going to make our country great again.

00:15:58.000 That is the same message you'll hear tonight, nine years later in the final MAGA rally.

00:16:02.000 We got some Trump superfans in this audience.

00:16:05.000 Some people that have voted the first day of voting.

00:16:08.000 What are you going to do?

00:16:10.000 Because this story comes to an end.

00:16:12.000 This story ends tomorrow, and a new story will be born.

00:16:16.000 And you'll never get this time back.

00:16:18.000 The three MAGA rallies today are the last ones ever.

00:16:21.000 You will never get it back.

00:16:22.000 It will be history.

00:16:23.000 It is not history yet, but you can make history.

00:16:26.000 Do you know how people would give anything to be in a moment to make history?

00:16:31.000 You can make history by how hard you work this next day.

00:16:34.000 That's it.

00:16:35.000 I got one day left.

00:16:36.000 I've been pleading with you guys to go to work all year.

00:16:38.000 I'm asking for one day of the hardest you've ever worked to find every human being possible to get them to vote.

00:16:47.000 So our team's been using this app.

00:16:49.000 And again, I'm careful with these betting markets, but this is the one you guys got to look at.

00:16:52.000 It's called Kalshi.

00:16:53.000 K-A-L-S-H-I. It's the first legal exchange where you can trade and bet on any event.

00:16:59.000 For the first time in 100 years, they got approval to list markets to trade on the outcome of the upcoming election, making it legal to trade on the U.S. presidential election and see who's going to win, Trump or Kamala.

00:17:08.000 They have markets on who will win each election, who will win swing states.

00:17:11.000 They also have markets on inflation, interest rates, will the government shutdown, and more.

00:17:14.000 What's really cool about this platform is you can trade on your opinions to make money or hedge risks that may impact you.

00:17:19.000 Go to Kalshi.com slash Kirk.

00:17:21.000 K-A-L-S-H-I.com slash Kirk.

00:17:23.000 Additionally, you can check market odds, which come from thousands of people trading.

00:17:26.000 These odds can be highly predictive, which is why these markets are referred to as prediction markets.

00:17:30.000 Go to K-A-L-S-H-I.com slash Kirk.

00:17:33.000 That is K-A-L-S-H-I.com slash Kirk.

00:17:38.000 Joining us now is Mark Halperin.

00:17:39.000 Check out his wonderful program, Two-Way TV. That is Two-Way TV. Mark, is there a website associated with that?

00:17:47.000 There is.

00:17:49.000 It's twoway.tv.

00:17:50.000 Got it.

00:17:51.000 Twoway.tv.

00:17:51.000 Or you go on YouTube and search for two-way.

00:17:53.000 It's been a go-to destination for me and for our team.

00:17:56.000 They kind of got a pulse of what is happening there.

00:17:58.000 So, Mark, you said something very interesting recently.

00:18:01.000 You said you actually don't think this race is going to be close.

00:18:05.000 It's either going to be Kamala decisively or Trump decisively.

00:18:08.000 Is that correct?

00:18:10.000 I'm not sure, but that's my base case.

00:18:12.000 I think either female voters will swarm to the polls and Something you flagged by saying, you know, men got to turn out. 0.99

00:18:20.000 And if they swarmed the polls where they're 55% of the electorate and they vote decisively for Kamala Harris, I think she would win big.

00:18:26.000 And I think that would be uniform across at least five and maybe as many as six or maybe even seven of the battleground states.

00:18:34.000 But I think it's more likely that if it's a big win, it's Donald Trump's big win.

00:18:38.000 At this point, I don't think she's got a good chance.

00:18:42.000 I don't say no chance, but I think she's got a good chance to win any of the four Sunbelt states.

00:18:45.000 And so for her to win big, it's going to mean winning big in the three Great Lakes states, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. 0.55

00:18:53.000 If it's really big, maybe those sunbed states come back into play.

00:18:56.000 But the reason I continue to think President Trump has a better chance to win is I see multiple paths for him and I see it more likely that he gets that big win than that she does.

00:19:06.000 But as I said, if she has a chance to win, I think it would be because women give her an unexpectedly large win, both in the popular vote Yeah, and look, I want to be very clear and humble the audience a little bit to try to get some urgency. 0.92

00:19:19.000 Mark, Kamala allies are feeling more confident this week than last week.

00:19:24.000 Is that correct?

00:19:25.000 Oh, night and day.

00:19:26.000 Last week, it was hard to find folks who gave her much of a chance.

00:19:30.000 It's not clear what's caused their increased confidence, except they are winning, not every day, but for the last week, they've won what political professionals call the information flow.

00:19:41.000 That's, I think, and some people could compare that to vibes, and they certainly have an advantage in information flow because the dominant media is on their side, but they are much more confident than they were, but it's hard to get them to give actual data.

00:19:54.000 They trotted out David Plouffe, who's greatly respected by people in politics and media, to say that the undecided voters are breaking towards Kamala Harris.

00:20:02.000 In part, they claimed Because of Madison Square Garden.

00:20:05.000 I think there should be data to back that up.

00:20:07.000 It's kind of a bold assertion.

00:20:09.000 But I think partly because her events are really good now, and President Trump has had some bad events, and partly because David Plouffe came out with his credibility and said things are breaking their way, they are much more confident, but again, not data-driven as far as I can tell, but simply vibes-driven.

00:20:26.000 So, Mark, you've been doing this for a long time.

00:20:28.000 Tony Fabrizio, who is Donald Trump's pollster, famously says presidential races move glacially, that it is very slow and not as abrupt.

00:20:38.000 That could be right.

00:20:39.000 We're in a new era where everyone has a supercomputer in your right-hand pocket.

00:20:43.000 It's not 2004 anymore.

00:20:45.000 In your experience, can the last week, especially when you have a candidate that is so defined already as Donald Trump, Can a not great week really be that determinative?

00:20:58.000 Does your experience tell you that the last week is actually pretty important?

00:21:02.000 It is in a race that the polls suggest is close.

00:21:06.000 And remember, even on the Trump side, the most optimistic people on the Trump side, as you well know, maybe some of them think he could win these states, some of these states by five points.

00:21:15.000 But they're more talking about wins by two points, which again, in our 50-50 nation, would be akin to a landslide.

00:21:21.000 But why the end matters, it's like when I played high school basketball in one important game, I made a turnover and I missed a shot in the fourth quarter, and my coach singled me out for special criticism, and I pointed out that my teammates had made mistakes throughout the game, and he said, mistakes in the fourth quarter matter more because there's no time to make up for them.

00:21:40.000 And what you've seen in the last week is Donald Trump, look, I think the garbage truck thing and the press conference and then the story he told, I think that was obviously a great moment. 0.54

00:21:50.000 There are three things happening now for both campaigns.

00:21:53.000 Convincing undecided voters, and I think people who say there aren't any undecided voters left, haven't watched my platform because we talk every day to people who are still undecided.

00:22:01.000 And undecided can be who to vote for, but it can also be whether to vote, right?

00:22:06.000 So undecided voters.

00:22:07.000 Then there's getting your people who are for you to the polls because it could rain or they could have a bad day at work or the subway could be closed.

00:22:16.000 And then there's the sort of seamier thing which is voter suppression to try to keep people from voting.

00:22:23.000 So if the race is a blowout, does the last week matter?

00:22:26.000 No.

00:22:26.000 But just like if I missed a shot and turned the ball over and we were up 20 points, my coach wouldn't care.

00:22:31.000 But in a close game, a close contest, yeah, the last week matters like the fourth quarter matters.

00:22:37.000 And both these campaigns know that mistakes now could be a big deal.

00:22:41.000 That's why a lot of people in Trump world freaked out yesterday when in his first event of the day that I happened to be covering in Lancaster, Pennsylvania, Probably the worst Trump event I've ever been to in terms of his performance.

00:22:52.000 And people said, Mr.

00:22:54.000 President, you can't go through the rest of the day with that level of performance.

00:22:58.000 It makes a difference.

00:22:59.000 And she's doing well.

00:23:01.000 Her events are quite good now.

00:23:03.000 And it could be, literally, the information flow in this last week could make her president of the United States.

00:23:10.000 That if it is close, and if I'm right, that information flow matters.

00:23:15.000 I think it does.

00:23:16.000 Yeah, and again, you've got to run through the tape.

00:23:19.000 That's what everyone says, and you've got to run through the tape.

00:23:23.000 I sent out a cockiness tweet about a week and a half ago where I said, cockiness is cancer, and there were some people just kind of in the orbit that guaranteed a victory mark.

00:23:34.000 Guaranteed.

00:23:34.000 I'm sure you heard that kind of language.

00:23:36.000 Yeah.

00:23:37.000 Well, look, every campaign deals with this.

00:23:39.000 It's a balance between not being cocky, making sure no one gets complacent.

00:23:43.000 They keep giving you money.

00:23:44.000 They keep volunteering.

00:23:46.000 They keep door knocking.

00:23:47.000 But you also want the bandwagon effect.

00:23:49.000 And I think one of the things that the Harris people have done brilliantly, because again, the top level people there are very experienced in political communication, is they went the whole campaign, the first hundred or so days, saying, we're the underdog, we're the underdog, to keep the money coming in, to keep people with their guard up, to keep the volunteers volunteering.

00:24:06.000 But I think they changed right around the time campaigns normally do with a week to go.

00:24:11.000 And they had Madison Square Garden to key off of.

00:24:14.000 And they had the enthusiasm of her events, not just large events, but enthusiastic celebrities showing up, performing well.

00:24:23.000 You had some missteps by President Trump, including yesterday.

00:24:26.000 And so they're able to switch from underdog, underdog, underdog to bandwagon.

00:24:32.000 Be with the winner.

00:24:34.000 Turn out.

00:24:34.000 Vote for us.

00:24:35.000 Make it happen.

00:24:36.000 And I think they probably plan to execute that the entire way, because that's kind of the textbook thing to do.

00:24:41.000 But you're right that some people in President Trump's orbit have been on, we've got this locked for longer than most campaigns would.

00:24:49.000 That's partly the fact that the data that people in Trump world have is quite positive.

00:24:55.000 There's reasons looking at the internal data to be bullish, but it's also kind of a cultural, anthropological difference between the two parties.

00:25:03.000 Just tend to beat their chests more.

00:25:04.000 And Democrats tend to worry a bit more.

00:25:07.000 So as we kind of get to a close here, the states that it seems the Democrats are making more of a push for North Carolina than otherwise would believe.

00:25:18.000 But you're not as bullish on that chance.

00:25:20.000 Is that fair to say?

00:25:21.000 Well, I think they're making a push on North Carolina for three reasons.

00:25:24.000 Number one.

00:25:26.000 Georgia and Arizona, according to most of my sources in both parties, are not going to happen for her.

00:25:31.000 And if she doesn't make a play for one of the three large sunbelt states, she's got exactly one path to exactly 270 electoral votes, and she has enough money and time to play there. 0.99

00:25:40.000 So just to have another option, number one.

00:25:43.000 Number two, she's always thought herself, the vice president, that that was her best of the sunbelt states.

00:25:48.000 And so I think she's got her own sort of personal theory of the case there.

00:25:51.000 And number three is...

00:25:54.000 The governor's race there is going to be such a mismatch that there's reasons to think that perhaps between that and some of the changing demographics of the state, maybe they could win it.

00:26:04.000 But I think all analysis of this race starts with the questions you have to answer.

00:26:08.000 Do you think she can win either North Carolina, Georgia, or Arizona, or more than one of them?

00:26:12.000 Most of my sources don't believe that in either party.

00:26:15.000 And that means she's back to having one path.

00:26:18.000 But There's only so many times in the last week you can go over and over again to Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan.

00:26:26.000 So doing some time in North Carolina and seeing if there's a way to win it, because what you don't want, again, is to leave yourself literally no margin of error.

00:26:34.000 If you think, as most of my sources do, she's going to be shut out of the three big Sunbelt states, that means Donald Trump needs to go one for three in the Rust Belt, and she needs to go three for three, and going three for three is a lot harder than going one for three.

00:26:47.000 So we literally have hours left of this election, and it's all about turnout.

00:26:53.000 Are the Democrats happy with their early vote advantage that they've built in Pennsylvania or other states?

00:27:00.000 Are they confident in the blue wall?

00:27:02.000 They can't be happy with it.

00:27:04.000 The Trump campaign just put out a memo laying out the stats.

00:27:07.000 And I said early in the early vote that if the early, early vote held up through the late early vote, there's no way she could win.

00:27:14.000 It's gotten a little bit better for them in some of the states.

00:27:18.000 But it's still very daunting.

00:27:20.000 It means that their turnout operation, which, as you well know, I and others have said for a long time, her turnout operation is really well funded.

00:27:28.000 It's really vast.

00:27:29.000 It's being run by the campaign.

00:27:31.000 It's being headed by the chair of the campaign who grew up in politics as a field organizer.

00:27:36.000 And your side has been run by Elon Musk and by you and other people coordinating legally with the campaign, but this started later, not as big, and trying to turn out low propensity voters as opposed to high propensity voters.

00:27:49.000 So that conventional wisdom that their turnout operation was superior and would carry her to victory in a close race is now being brought into sharp relief and question, because how can you say that a turnout operation, which is underperformed by any measure, In early vote, is on election day suddenly going to change the behavior of Democratic voters?

00:28:09.000 So we have a minute remaining.

00:28:10.000 Again, I'm not doing hopium stuff.

00:28:11.000 Every day I try to find ways that we can lose.

00:28:14.000 I'm unique in some of the Trump space in that way.

00:28:16.000 That's a good attitude.

00:28:18.000 I want to try to check my premise, though.

00:28:20.000 I find it hard to believe the Democrats are going to have a blue tsunami on election day.

00:28:27.000 It just hasn't been their voters' behavior.

00:28:30.000 What is your likelihood of that, and do they need that?

00:28:33.000 They do need it.

00:28:34.000 I mean, they need it.

00:28:36.000 I think that your side overperformed in early voting, so maybe their side will overperform in Election Day.

00:28:45.000 Maybe.

00:28:46.000 Maybe women are just ready to go to the polls as an act of communal defiance. 1.00

00:28:51.000 Maybe.

00:28:52.000 And maybe the early vote, because again, you don't have perfect transparency in the early vote, right?

00:28:57.000 You don't know who people actually voted for.

00:28:59.000 The campaigns have analytics, overlay the publicly available data, consumer data, etc.

00:29:05.000 So they have good guesses about how people have voted.

00:29:08.000 But it's possible that people who profile as Likely votes for Trump, particularly on the female side, are in fact voting for Kamala Harris.

00:29:16.000 So that's possible.

00:29:17.000 Their lead in the early vote in the states they're leading, which is five of the seven, may be bigger than we think.

00:29:26.000 So they wouldn't need to do as well on election day as we currently believe they'd need to.

00:29:30.000 That's the best I can do for them.

00:29:33.000 I think that because the press doesn't want to be dire about her chances, has not really delved into just how bad these are.

00:29:42.000 The big tell was Jim Messina, who was Obama's campaign manager, and a huge booster of Kamala Harris and kind of Pollyannish.

00:29:49.000 He said on MSNBC, this is really bad.

00:29:53.000 That's right.

00:29:54.000 I don't want to get too high.

00:29:55.000 That's the biggest tell of the whole campaign.

00:29:56.000 I totally agree.

00:29:57.000 I don't want to get too high on supply.

00:29:58.000 However, it is fairly analytical to say if Trump voters have record turnout tomorrow, it's going to be hard for Kamala to overcome that.

00:30:05.000 Mark, we're out of time.

00:30:06.000 Do you agree with that?

00:30:08.000 Good to see you, man.

00:30:08.000 I agree.

00:30:09.000 Math is math.

00:30:11.000 Two-way.tv.

00:30:12.000 Excellent.

00:30:12.000 Mark, thanks so much.

00:30:13.000 Hey, everybody.

00:30:14.000 Charlie Kirk here.

00:30:16.000 As we gear up for another important election year, remember that we vote every day with our dollar.

00:30:20.000 One of the best ways to support America is by buying from local farms and ranches.

00:30:24.000 Good Ranchers makes this easy by delivering 100% American meat to your door.

00:30:29.000 When you shop with Good Ranchers, you're not just getting the best meat for your family, but also supporting American farmers and ranchers.

00:30:36.000 This year, instead of buying imported meat, cast your vote for American agriculture and local economy.

00:30:41.000 I've used good ranchers' meat for quite some time, and they never disappoint.

00:30:44.000 Whatever your choice of protein, you'll be pleased if you cast a vote for Good Ranchers.

00:30:49.000 Use code Kirk for $25 off your order and your choice of free chicken breasts, ground beef, bacon, or wild-caught salmon for a year.

00:30:55.000 It's time to make a stand.

00:30:57.000 Vote for American meat with Good Ranchers. 0.90

00:30:58.000 Your purchase helps keep American farms thriving and ensures you get the highest quality meat for your family.

00:31:04.000 I love Good Ranchers.

00:31:05.000 You should check it out right now at GoodRanchers.com.

00:31:08.000 Use promo code Kirk.

00:31:09.000 That is GoodRanchers.com.

00:31:11.000 Check it out right now.

00:31:12.000 Promo code Kirk.

00:31:15.000 Email us, as always, freedom at charliekirk.com.

00:31:17.000 I want to read some of these emails here of people.

00:31:20.000 If you are voting tomorrow, I want to hear about it.

00:31:23.000 Freedom at charliekirk.com.

00:31:24.000 Rita says, Charlie, I'm voting tomorrow.

00:31:26.000 I'm bringing five people with me.

00:31:27.000 We're going out to breakfast afterwards.

00:31:29.000 New Trump voters.

00:31:30.000 Charlie, love your show.

00:31:31.000 I'm a 62-year-old mother.

00:31:33.000 Here are all my nine new voters.

00:31:35.000 Christina, Andy, Joshua, Jessica, Alyssa, Claudio, Christina, Zachary, Jennifer.

00:31:39.000 Boom! 0.99

00:31:39.000 That is exactly how we win, Lori. 0.99

00:31:41.000 You name them by name and you bring them out to the polls.

00:31:46.000 Charlie, for nine years we have been struggling.

00:31:48.000 Tomorrow we await a huge victory.

00:31:49.000 I have brought 20 people to the polls.

00:31:51.000 Going to do even more.

00:31:52.000 I want to hear from you guys.

00:31:54.000 I want to hear your feedback, what you are seeing, what you are hearing.

00:31:58.000 Freedom at charliekirk.com.

00:32:00.000 That is freedom at charliekirk.com.

00:32:03.000 And, you know, someone says, Charlie, Mark Halperin totally depressed me.

00:32:06.000 Hold on a second.

00:32:06.000 There's no depressing.

00:32:07.000 At the end, he said, if we show up, we win.

00:32:11.000 Math is math, guys.

00:32:12.000 You just can't live in your own hopium universe. 0.81

00:32:14.000 There's some things that are going good for us, some things that aren't.

00:32:17.000 But if we show up, we win.

00:32:19.000 Do the work.

00:32:20.000 We're getting thousands of emails in, freedom at charliekirk.com, right here.

00:32:25.000 Charlie, the entire street is driving down together to go vote.

00:32:30.000 Let's see what state they are in.

00:32:32.000 Oh, in Alabama.

00:32:33.000 Well, that's good.

00:32:34.000 Run up the score in Alabama.

00:32:35.000 Very good for you.

00:32:36.000 Charlie, I've made thousands of calls for Trump Force 47, and we are using the Democrats from four years ago.

00:32:43.000 We are going to win this thing.

00:32:44.000 Okay, we'll see.

00:32:45.000 We'll see.

00:32:46.000 Look, guys, it is a pure turnout game, which means you must increase the volume.

00:32:53.000 You must increase the Richter scale.

00:32:55.000 Right now, by the way, my wife Erica, she was up late until about 11 p.m. 0.96

00:32:59.000 on her computer.

00:33:00.000 She was texting 600 people in Arizona.

00:33:03.000 Have you voted?

00:33:07.000 600 people.

00:33:08.000 600 people.

00:33:09.000 You guys can do that too.

00:33:11.000 Relentlessly asking the question, have you voted?

00:33:16.000 And by the way, there was an Amazon delivery driver.

00:33:19.000 By the way, if you want to know why we're going to lose, I'll tell you why we're going to lose.

00:33:22.000 There was an Amazon delivery driver last night.

00:33:25.000 Recognized me.

00:33:25.000 Oh my goodness, I love you on TikTok.

00:33:27.000 I said, oh great, have you voted?

00:33:29.000 She said, well I got an early ballot.

00:33:30.000 I don't really know what to do with it.

00:33:32.000 Is it too late?

00:33:33.000 Complete.

00:33:34.000 It was not planning to vote.

00:33:35.000 She had an early ballot. 0.70

00:33:36.000 And I walked her through it all.

00:33:37.000 She's like, well do I put it in the mail?

00:33:38.000 I said, no, too late in Arizona.

00:33:40.000 You have to drop it off.

00:33:41.000 We got it all sorted out.

00:33:42.000 Another young lady who was serving us dinner back on Friday told this story yesterday.

00:33:45.000 She's like, well, how do I vote?

00:33:48.000 Unregistered, not going to vote, too late in Arizona.

00:33:50.000 I got to tell you guys, we might have won the support and we lose the vote.

00:33:55.000 Right here.

00:33:56.000 Teresa, Charlie, my husband and I are voting in Pennsylvania tomorrow.

00:33:58.000 We're taking our two sons, my daughter and her husband.

00:34:00.000 We're going to go vote in the county in Pennsylvania, and their first-time voting girlfriends are going to vote also.

00:34:05.000 That's eight of us.

00:34:06.000 God bless you, Teresa.

00:34:07.000 Let's give it up for Teresa. 0.99

00:34:08.000 That right there is how we're going to win Pennsylvania right there.

00:34:11.000 Too big to rig.

00:34:12.000 We need a surge beyond measurement.

00:34:15.000 Melissa says, Charlie, I'm going tomorrow morning.

00:34:18.000 I'll be bringing three of my neighbors with me.

00:34:20.000 All elderly, very much suffering in these times.

00:34:22.000 God bless you, Marissa.

00:34:24.000 Cindy says, Charlie, just want to let you know, a lot of women I know are not voting for Kamala Harris. 1.00

00:34:30.000 Just because they're a woman does not mean they're voting for Kamala. 0.78

00:34:33.000 I hear a lot of that, by the way.

00:34:35.000 I hear a lot of that.

00:34:36.000 It's going to come down to the wire here.

00:34:38.000 We're going to be streaming for three full hours here.

00:34:41.000 Tonight we'll be streaming the last ever MAGA rally.

00:34:43.000 We'll be hosting it.

00:34:45.000 And secondly, tomorrow night is Judgment Day.

00:34:48.000 We're going to be streaming for nearly 12 hours straight.

00:34:50.000 So make a plan to watch us.

00:34:52.000 We have the best political analysis of any program out there.

00:34:55.000 We know the counties.

00:34:56.000 We know the nooks.

00:34:57.000 We know the crannies.

00:34:57.000 We know the tricks.

00:34:58.000 We know the voodoo. 0.98

00:34:59.000 We know the hocus pocus.

00:35:00.000 We have the best team out there.

00:35:01.000 We have Blake.

00:35:02.000 We have Jack.

00:35:02.000 We have Tyler.

00:35:03.000 Because we're actually working in these neighborhoods.

00:35:05.000 This is probably the most important tape of the weekend.

00:35:08.000 This is Obama's, one of his whisperers, Jim Messina, telling you that they might lose because of the work we've done.

00:35:14.000 Playcut 34.

00:35:15.000 Okay, what's their biggest concern right now if you're the Harris team?

00:35:19.000 Well, look, I think it's a couple things.

00:35:22.000 The early vote numbers are a little scary, and you and I have been texting back and forth.

00:35:27.000 Republicans didn't do what they did last time.

00:35:29.000 Last time Trump said, don't early vote, and so they didn't.

00:35:33.000 Republicans do have an advantage in early vote numbers.

00:35:35.000 When the early vote come in, it's going to look a little bit different than 2020, and that's scary.

00:35:42.000 That's scary.

00:35:43.000 If you plan to vote tomorrow, email me freedom at charliekirk.com and brag to me.

00:35:47.000 I'll read the emails on air of new voters you are bringing into the wrinkle. 0.95

00:35:51.000 Go nuts, everybody.

00:35:53.000 Now is the time to do stuff you've never done before. 0.76

00:35:55.000 Make history.

00:35:56.000 Joining us now is a very smart man and a great analyst of the 2024 election, amongst other things, Ryan James Gurdusky.

00:36:08.000 Ryan, welcome to the program.

00:36:09.000 Ryan, this weekend, the alleged gold standard of Midwestern polling, Ann Seltzer, came out with her legendary Saturday evening poll. 1.00

00:36:19.000 The audience might not know much about this unless they obsess over Twitter, but the media has picked up on this rather heavily, that the Des Moines Register poll, they commissioned her to do this this Saturday before the election, and she sometimes picks up trends that other people are missing.

00:36:34.000 In 2020, to her credit, she picked up that Trump was stronger in the Midwest than anyone was detecting, and it turns out she was right.

00:36:41.000 Well, she shocked the world on Saturday evening where she said that Kamala Harris is up three in Iowa.

00:36:47.000 Now, mind you, in order for her to be right, every human being, both internal and external polling, in the Kamala Harris campaign, Trump campaign, public polling, tracking NRFC, DCCC is wrong.

00:36:57.000 So it's basically Anseltzer versus the world. 0.98

00:37:00.000 What's going on here, Ryan?

00:37:02.000 So I looked at the poll, and the crosshaves were provided in the Des Moines Register.

00:37:05.000 And the big shift that she has, the reason how she got from an R-plus-8 state, which is what it was in 2020, to a D-plus-3 state, that 11-point shift, is because of seniors.

00:37:15.000 Now, Seltzer keeps bringing up its senior women, look at all these senior women, but her numbers actually show its senior men.

00:37:22.000 She said that senior men are breaking crosshaves.

00:37:26.000 I think it was a two-point difference, which is completely insignificant in polling.

00:37:31.000 And senior women went from being slightly pro-Trump to being the most Democratic group in the entire state.

00:37:39.000 It was more Democratic than young people, more Democratic than non-white voters overall.

00:37:45.000 Senior women, women over 65, who have voted 50-50, let's say, in the past two elections, and senior men who had voted overwhelmingly Republican were now 50-50 voters.

00:37:57.000 When this was brought up to her with the Mark Halpern show, she didn't know what R's or D's stood for in my tweets, which I find confusing.

00:38:04.000 But the fact is that she, I think her problem, like I think a lot of pollsters' problems are, and Nate Cohen from the New York Times said, I've been writing about this all year long.

00:38:20.000 This was true in 2016.

00:38:21.000 This was true in 2020.

00:38:23.000 I don't believe that Kamala Harris is winning seniors.

00:38:27.000 Maybe I'll be wrong and maybe Ann Seltzer will be right.

00:38:29.000 I don't think so.

00:38:31.000 And here's why.

00:38:32.000 When they sit there, Nate Cohen said there's a 16-point difference between white Republicans and White Democrats in far as response rate goes and wanting to answer the phone.

00:38:42.000 In 2016, they had Biden winning seniors by 10.

00:38:45.000 He lost them by four.

00:38:46.000 That's while COVID was happening and seniors were under an immense threat, honestly, of being over 65 with this disease running around.

00:38:53.000 And Trump still managed to win them.

00:38:55.000 He won them by nine against Hillary.

00:38:57.000 I don't think that there's this big shift because how do we get more seniors?

00:39:01.000 It's when people age.

00:39:02.000 That's the Basically, we have no immigrants who are seniors. 0.99

00:39:05.000 Very, very few.

00:39:06.000 It's just the aging process.

00:39:08.000 People under 65, who were like 64, 63, 62 last election, are more Republican than people who were 65 then.

00:39:16.000 So the newest group of seniors voted more Republican than the current group of seniors in the last election.

00:39:23.000 I have a very hard time believing that every one of them just changed their mind and are witnessing a 7-8 point switch.

00:39:31.000 The other problem with Seltzer's poll, in my opinion, was there is a three-point movement among independents.

00:39:36.000 So how do you get an 11-point movement overall when there's just a three-point movement among independents?

00:39:41.000 It's that she's saying Republican white seniors are the ones who are moving more Democratic.

00:39:48.000 They find that very, very hard to believe.

00:39:50.000 Is there any data anywhere, Ryan, across the country that shows this trend?

00:39:55.000 No.

00:39:55.000 I mean, there's plenty of polls that sit there and say Kamala's winning seniors, although ironically they're saying they're winning seniors by less than Biden did.

00:40:04.000 The Marist poll came out today and said Harris is winning baby boomers by 11 points.

00:40:09.000 I don't find that credible.

00:40:11.000 I don't think that she's doing double digits better, almost 15 points better among seniors than Biden did.

00:40:17.000 It's just, it's not, it's not this fascinating smell test.

00:40:20.000 And this was the group.

00:40:22.000 Seniors, especially non-college educated, but even college educated seniors.

00:40:26.000 We're the group that pollsters missed in 2016, and they're the group that pollsters missed in 2020.

00:40:31.000 Why do they miss?

00:40:31.000 Is it a response bias?

00:40:33.000 Is it because Republicans?

00:40:34.000 Yes.

00:40:34.000 Okay.

00:40:35.000 Charlie, if you ever met a person who watches Rachel Maddow religiously, they cannot wait to tell you how much they hate Donald Trump.

00:40:42.000 It's what they think about.

00:40:43.000 They're calling pollsters and saying, please hear me out and hear how much I hate Donald Trump.

00:40:48.000 Anecdotally, I know plenty of conservative seniors who don't like to talk about politics.

00:40:51.000 It's just not their thing.

00:40:52.000 But they're conservative.

00:40:53.000 They vote Republican.

00:40:54.000 I don't know hardly any liberal seniors who don't want to tell you immediately upon meeting you that they hate Donald Trump.

00:41:04.000 Hey everybody, Charlie Kirk here.

00:41:05.000 What an unbelievable start to 2024.

00:41:07.000 We had last month saving babies with pre-born by providing ultrasounds.

00:41:11.000 And we're doing again this year what we did last year.

00:41:13.000 We're going to stand for life because remaining silent in the face of the most radically pro-death administration is not an option.

00:41:18.000 As Sir Edmund Burke said, the only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing.

00:41:23.000 And we're not going to do nothing.

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00:42:06.000 The other counter-argument, though, I'd like to play devil's advocate.

00:42:09.000 Did Ann pick up anything else in this poll that we should be worried about that could be extrapolated?

00:42:14.000 And what was the data set?

00:42:16.000 Some people say it was a D-plus-3 data set.

00:42:18.000 Is that right?

00:42:19.000 I don't know the data set because it wasn't released.

00:42:21.000 I heard between D-plus-3 or D-plus-4 and it's an R-plus-6 state now.

00:42:25.000 So, yeah, it could be a 9-10 point.

00:42:28.000 There was a misallocation right there.

00:42:29.000 There were two other polls that followed it that had Trump up, I think, 8 and 11 in both polls.

00:42:34.000 That was the only thing.

00:42:36.000 It's weird because she said among young voters, voters under 30, Harris had like a three-point advantage.

00:42:43.000 And senior women were the most left-wing group in the entire state.

00:42:48.000 It's not the group that moves about abortion.

00:42:50.000 Oh, and also I think the other issue that they found were that democracy was a bigger issue than the economy.

00:42:55.000 Right.

00:42:56.000 That sounds to me like, and that's the same poll that Maris found, by the way, too, that democracy was a bigger issue than the economy.

00:43:03.000 I think you found a lot of liberals.

00:43:06.000 And also, she doesn't look at a lot of partisan breakdown when she's doing these sample sizes. 0.98

00:43:13.000 So, listen, she's been right a lot in the past.

00:43:15.000 If she wins, if Harris wins Iowa, egg on my face, I got it all wrong.

00:43:21.000 If it was real data, though, Harris would have sent Governor Walz, who is literally the governor of the neighboring state, to visit their That's what I tweeted.

00:43:30.000 No, that's what I tweeted.

00:43:31.000 I said, if they would have detected any signs of life, they would have sent Mr.

00:43:35.000 Walls through a tour of Waterloo, Ames, and Davenport, right?

00:43:40.000 Like, let's see what you got here, man.

00:43:42.000 But we have other public polling that shows that this is wrong.

00:43:46.000 So, it does bug the question, Ryan, was this information warfare?

00:43:50.000 Because J.B. Pritzker got the...

00:43:51.000 Well, hold on.

00:43:52.000 Hear me out.

00:43:53.000 J.B. Pritzker got a leak ahead of time.

00:43:55.000 I got tipped off 12 hours ahead of time.

00:43:58.000 So I woke up.

00:43:59.000 We had seven Superchase events.

00:44:00.000 We were traveling over Arizona.

00:44:01.000 And I got called from a good friend who's very well tied in.

00:44:04.000 He said, hey, the Seltzer poll is going to show Donald Trump down two or three points in Iowa.

00:44:08.000 I said, you're full BS. He's like, I wouldn't be calling you if it wasn't that.

00:44:11.000 I called the Trump campaign.

00:44:12.000 And they're like, Charlie, we find this really hard to believe.

00:44:14.000 I'm like, look, the source is the source.

00:44:16.000 My guys tipped off.

00:44:17.000 So 12 hours ahead of time, we knew this.

00:44:19.000 By the way, other reporters had it the night before.

00:44:21.000 J.B. Pritzker's bragging about it at some sort of Chicago fundraiser.

00:44:25.000 Is this information warfare, Ryan?

00:44:27.000 Again, feel free to disagree, but there are some elements that beg the question.

00:44:31.000 Right.

00:44:32.000 So I heard it the night before, too, from somebody who was at that Chicago fundraiser.

00:44:38.000 Pritzker was raving about it.

00:44:39.000 And I said, you have to be wrong.

00:44:41.000 He must be just lying.

00:44:43.000 This can't be true.

00:44:44.000 Yep.

00:44:45.000 Did he get it from the Des Moines Register or from Ann Selzer?

00:44:48.000 I want to believe that she did not, at the age of 70, decide, hey, let me throw my whole credibility away.

00:44:53.000 Maybe my last presidential cycle.

00:44:56.000 I don't know.

00:44:57.000 Or did the Des Moines Register have a reporter who was like, hey, this is great.

00:45:00.000 Let me call.

00:45:01.000 Let me get an in.

00:45:02.000 Because reporters do this all the time. 0.81

00:45:03.000 They offer information and to trade information to get in close to politicians and their political teams.

00:45:08.000 It's not uncommon.

00:45:09.000 I don't know.

00:45:10.000 I don't want to believe that because I've spoken to Anne once before.

00:45:13.000 She was very lovely.

00:45:14.000 She is a respectable person.

00:45:15.000 She's got a great career.

00:45:16.000 She doesn't always get it right.

00:45:18.000 In fact, in primary, she usually gets it wrong.

00:45:20.000 She got it wrong in 2020, 2012, 2016 primaries, and obviously in the 2008 election, she was off by almost double digits. 0.95

00:45:27.000 I don't want to believe that she decided to ruin her whole legacy.

00:45:31.000 Maybe she'll be right, but I think that may be something from the I mean, but I just, I can't, I mean, I don't want to say too much.

00:45:36.000 Why didn't she spike it? 0.57

00:45:37.000 She's, I mean, this is such a big gamble.

00:45:39.000 It is her versus everybody else. 0.52

00:45:41.000 There is not a, by the way, the Nebraska polling doesn't show this.

00:45:44.000 Minnesota shows a tight race.

00:45:46.000 Every neighboring state doesn't show this.

00:45:48.000 So if there was something going on with like rural Midwestern white women, we would pick it up in Nebraska or in Minnesota, right? 1.00

00:45:54.000 Minnesota would be a, Minnesota would be a 17 point polling Delta.

00:45:58.000 17 and it's within five, six points.

00:46:01.000 Am I wrong, Ryan, when I'm saying this?

00:46:02.000 So this is what someone brought up to me, and I think that's a good point.

00:46:06.000 Is it because – is Iowa more of a prairie state now or a Midwestern state?

00:46:12.000 So what it would show is that Kansas is in single digits.

00:46:16.000 It would show that Nebraska is in single digits.

00:46:18.000 It wouldn't show necessarily that Ohio is in single digits.

00:46:23.000 So that's like the argument.

00:46:24.000 If it's a very nuanced, weird argument, the poll said Mary Meeks Miller or Mary Ann Meeks Miller, the Congress Republican.

00:46:32.000 Down 17 points.

00:46:33.000 Yeah, down 17 points.

00:46:35.000 If that were true, it would be like ground zero where they were like, absolutely, we're going to pick this seat up.

00:46:40.000 I find that hard to believe as well because the DCCC hasn't acted in that manner.

00:46:46.000 And nothing else is correlating with that.

00:46:49.000 That's why I sat there and think that.

00:46:51.000 And also registration numbers are through the roof where I think in every county Republicans added on while Democrats shrank.

00:46:58.000 I don't know.

00:46:58.000 I mean, they have no federal representation.

00:47:01.000 They have won, I think, statewide elect, and that's it.

00:47:05.000 It would be like if there was a shock pull out of Rhode Island or Connecticut showing a Republican win there, we would be like, oh, that's awesome.

00:47:12.000 I don't believe it, but that's awesome, if it's true.

00:47:15.000 If Iowa is true, that's terrible.

00:47:18.000 I don't believe it, but it'd be terrible if it was true.

00:47:21.000 I don't know.

00:47:22.000 Ryan, you know the Pennsylvania news quite well.

00:47:25.000 Walk us through the status of where we are, Pennsylvania early voting and what needs to happen tomorrow.

00:47:30.000 So right now, Republicans make up just shy of 34% of all the early votes in Pennsylvania.

00:47:35.000 Those are absentee ballots that have been submitted.

00:47:38.000 Now, I want to make something very clear.

00:47:40.000 Just because I say Republicans or Democrats, it doesn't mean that's how they voted.

00:47:44.000 It just means that that's the party that they're registered under.

00:47:47.000 Democrats are just shy of a million absentee ballot results handed in.

00:47:52.000 I think Republicans are like 568 or something like that.

00:47:54.000 Democrats should probably have a 420,000 absentee ballot lead over Republicans.

00:48:01.000 That is significantly lower than in 2020.

00:48:04.000 And I think it's pretty significantly lower or just on par with 2022, actually.

00:48:08.000 Republicans are just shy of overall their 2020 number.

00:48:11.000 An interesting thing, and my message is to you, Charlie, when we were chatting.

00:48:15.000 Republicans have exceeded their 2020 turnout levels in almost every western county in PA, almost every northeastern county in PA, southeast PA, the Philly Collar counties, Philadelphia, Erie, and Pittsburgh is where they're behind, but so are Democrats.

00:48:32.000 Where Democrats are exceeding their average overall turnout, where they're getting the closest to their 2020 numbers, are rural, super Republican counties that Trump won by huge numbers.

00:48:43.000 I'm Adams County.

00:48:45.000 These are counties that Trump went with 66 to 70, close to 80 percent.

00:48:50.000 The only way Trump gets those county numbers is that a lot of ancestral Democrats, people who are registered Democrat but vote Republican, cross over and vote for Trump.

00:49:00.000 That's where the strongest numbers are.

00:49:03.000 Part of me thinks, is there something going on right now where we're seeing very conservative Republicans voting in very large levels, but we're also seeing crossover Democrats voting in very high levels.

00:49:13.000 We obviously won't know the answer until Election Day, but it's a very interesting data set.

00:49:17.000 What has to happen right now on Election Day, Democrats have eaten about 34% of their high-propensity voters.

00:49:24.000 That means they're already banked.

00:49:25.000 They still have two-thirds left.

00:49:27.000 Republicans haven't even had a fifth of their very high-propensity voters out.

00:49:31.000 So they have a lot more bullets in the chamber as far as new voters come out.

00:49:35.000 What needs to happen is the new Republicans, low-propensity Republicans, need to show up en masse and blow out of the water.

00:49:43.000 The good thing going for Republicans right now is that Philadelphia is only 43% of where it was in 2020.

00:49:50.000 For every one vote that they don't get out of Philadelphia, they would need to have two or three voters show up because of how the demographics are, how their voting trends are, in the collar counties, in the white college-educated suburban counties.

00:50:03.000 That becomes very hard as that number grows, especially if the rules blow through 2020 numbers and other places don't get there.

00:50:11.000 So let's just kind of educate the audience.

00:50:15.000 Let's say if I tell you 5 million people vote tomorrow in Pennsylvania, just turnout numbers by 6 p.m.

00:50:21.000 Eastern, does that make you feel good for Trump's chances or not so good?

00:50:24.000 It depends if they're in Philadelphia or not.

00:50:26.000 I mean, that's really where it is.

00:50:27.000 No, I mean, that's a good answer.

00:50:29.000 If we wake up tomorrow and Philadelphia has lines 16 blocks long, well, then that's a very big problem.

00:50:34.000 I will say it is very interesting that the celebrities that Kamala Harris has going to Philadelphia are Lady Gaga and Oprah Winfrey.

00:50:43.000 Those are not celebrities that appeal to, let's say, black male voters.

00:50:48.000 Those are celebrities that appeal to white female voters.

00:50:51.000 Oprah's audience is very, very white.

00:50:54.000 That's sit there and go to Montgomery County, Chester County, Delaware County.

00:50:59.000 That's, I think, where she's sitting there and landing at the very, very end. 0.52

00:51:02.000 And I think that's where she's sitting there and trying to get the appeal. 1.00

00:51:05.000 Black and minority turnout is down nationwide right now.

00:51:08.000 It's down in Virginia, Georgia, North Carolina, Minnesota, Nevada.

00:51:13.000 It is down in Philadelphia.

00:51:16.000 If they decide to all show up tomorrow, it will be a game-changing election.

00:51:19.000 I would probably expect Kamala Harris to be our 47th president. 1.00

00:51:22.000 They tend to be early voters, though.

00:51:24.000 So it's about Republicans actually showing up and waiting in line, regardless if it's four or six hours.

00:51:29.000 And listen, I called my old realtor who lives in Pennsylvania.

00:51:32.000 I called an ex-girlfriend.

00:51:34.000 I called literally every person I knew who lived in Pennsylvania.

00:51:38.000 And I said, make sure you're voting and who are you bringing to the polls?

00:51:42.000 My old roommate from when I was 21, I called and said, is your dad voting?

00:51:46.000 Like every single solitary person, if you can do it, if you can call the person who you know you can't rely on to bring an extra meal for dinner or at a potluck dinner, make sure they're voting.

00:51:59.000 It's the unreliables that need to go out because the votes are there.

00:52:02.000 One of the most important things that most people don't know.

00:52:05.000 Last year, when the governor, Josh Shapiro, did an automatic voter registration enrollment for people where they had the driver's license renewed, renewed, Republican enrollment spiked because there were 2.66 million non-college educated Americans in Pennsylvania who were not registered to vote at the time of the 2016 election.

00:52:24.000 This is according to 538.

00:52:25.000 A lot of them are registered now.

00:52:27.000 It's about going to vote for the very first time ever.

00:52:30.000 A lot of people are 50s and 60s.

00:52:31.000 It can happen.

00:52:33.000 In Georgia, 45% of all first-time voters right now in Georgia are over the age of 50.

00:52:40.000 I know three people in my personal life who are over 60 first-time voters.

00:52:42.000 It can happen.

00:52:43.000 Go do it.

00:52:43.000 I want to just be clear, everybody.

00:52:45.000 Seltzer could be right, but she'll definitely be right if we don't show up.

00:52:48.000 Ryan, thank you so much.

00:52:49.000 Email us, freedomatcharliecourt.com.

00:52:51.000 Thank you.

00:52:52.000 Tell me your plan to vote and bring another person to vote.

00:52:55.000 No sitting on the couch.

00:52:56.000 Okay, joining us now is a great friend.

00:52:58.000 I think I text him 500 times a day.

00:53:01.000 We're in kind of a couple group chats together.

00:53:03.000 It is Jeremy Carl.

00:53:05.000 Jeremy, welcome back to the program.

00:53:06.000 It's great to be on, Charlie.

00:53:08.000 I've enjoyed texting back and forth, amazed how you can kind of keep all these balls in the air right now.

00:53:14.000 Well, it's somewhat cathartic and also creates some urgency.

00:53:19.000 Jeremy is the senior fellow at the Claremont Institute and author of the very important book, The Unprotected Class.

00:53:24.000 Jeremy, where does the race stand right now?

00:53:27.000 What needs to happen tomorrow for us to win?

00:53:29.000 Yeah, well, I mean, this is kind of a dumb cliche, but really we need to just turn out and vote.

00:53:34.000 But that actually does mean something.

00:53:36.000 That means that from what I can see in these various states, and we've gone back and forth on this, I feel very good about where we are coming into Election Day.

00:53:44.000 If we perform in the way that we should perform, I think that we win this.

00:53:50.000 So if the people show up who we would traditionally expect to show up, I think I think that we win this.

00:53:56.000 We're in a good position with early voting, certainly much, much better than we were in 2020.

00:54:03.000 But we've got to ultimately get the ball over the goal line, and that'll really determine how this goes.

00:54:09.000 Let's go state by state.

00:54:10.000 So Arizona is off limits.

00:54:12.000 Not allowed to talk about it.

00:54:13.000 We're not allowed to think about it.

00:54:14.000 I'm too close to it, and I'll talk about it once polls close.

00:54:18.000 Nevada.

00:54:18.000 What is going on in Nevada?

00:54:20.000 So in Nevada, we have most of the vote in at this point, and that is arguably the state.

00:54:25.000 It's certainly one of the states, if it's not the state, that really looks almost the best for us compared to maybe expectations before early voting started.

00:54:35.000 Traditionally, the Democrats have all Always had a big firewall lead, particularly from Clark County, which is where Las Vegas is, going in to the election day.

00:54:44.000 We've made up a huge registration disadvantage in the state to the point that we're basically even now on voter registration, and we're about 42,000, as of I think this morning, votes ahead in terms of Republican ballots out there.

00:54:59.000 We're going to also have a very good election day in Nevada and really At this point, the Democrats' hopes there hinge on either a lot more mail than I think is probably going to be out there from Clark County or, and I think this will be kind of a general theme of these states, some unknown unknowns.

00:55:19.000 So if for some reason independent voters, which were a large portion of the Nevada electorate, maybe 30 percent or so, if they were to snap Unexpectedly strongly against us.

00:55:29.000 That might cost us.

00:55:31.000 But otherwise, I think we look really, really good in Nevada right now.

00:55:35.000 So let me ask you, the Nevada consensus is that the unions control that entire area in Clark County.

00:55:42.000 Has Donald Trump kind of used the union weaponry against them?

00:55:46.000 No tax on tips, no tax on overtime, representing the muscular class. 0.90

00:55:50.000 Is Nevada kind of ground zero for how we use the Democrat coalition and invert them?

00:55:55.000 Well, I think it could be.

00:55:56.000 And certainly, I think, given the type of voters that we have in Nevada, fewer college-educated voters, more working-class voters, more service workers, the fact that we've made so much registration up in the last few years, I think, does have something to do with the sort of appeal that Trump has.

00:56:13.000 I do worry still a little bit about corruption in Nevada.

00:56:19.000 Vegas, you might be shocked to know, is not always the most upstanding place.

00:56:23.000 And they do have a rule that ballots can arrive up to three days after the election is over and still be counted.

00:56:32.000 And the Nevada Supreme Court actually just came out and said, even if it doesn't have a postmark, it can be counted.

00:56:38.000 That actually is a few percentage of votes.

00:56:41.000 My hope is that we're going to have a bigger lead by then.

00:56:44.000 So this will be irrelevant, but it is something to watch.

00:56:47.000 And I think just the fundamentals in Nevada, Are really strong.

00:56:50.000 At the time, in 2020, when the electorate shifted 3.4% to the right, or excuse me, to the left, Nevada actually shifted slightly to the right.

00:57:00.000 So we had a lot of them even going in.

00:57:02.000 And I think Trump is really built on that momentum.

00:57:05.000 The last couple of years have been very tough on people economically.

00:57:10.000 A lot of good folks have gotten into horrible debt just to survive.

00:57:13.000 Some of you are paying 20 to 30 percent on your credit card debt and drowning in those monthly bills.

00:57:18.000 If you own your own home, did you know that refinancing that home can help get you help right now?

00:57:24.000 I can hear it now.

00:57:25.000 But Charlie, I have a three and a half percent rate and I can't refi.

00:57:29.000 Don't be a slave to the right.

00:57:30.000 Talk to my good friends, Andrew Del Rey and Todd Avakian.

00:57:33.000 Let them crunch the numbers for you and show you.

00:57:35.000 I've used them.

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00:57:49.000 Fill out their form, and they'll give you a call, and you can review the math together and see if it works for you.

00:57:54.000 Get relief at andrewandtodd.com today.

00:57:59.000 Okay, so Nevada, let's put that to rest here.

00:58:02.000 North Carolina.

00:58:03.000 What is going on in North Carolina?

00:58:04.000 The Democrats are pouring money into this state.

00:58:06.000 It's a very diverse state.

00:58:08.000 I was just there.

00:58:09.000 The West is nothing like the East. 0.90

00:58:11.000 The Central is certainly nothing like the Southern part.

00:58:14.000 I mean, you kind of have...

00:58:15.000 North Carolina is a Southern-Northern state.

00:58:21.000 In some ways, you feel as if you are totally south of the Mason-Dixon line as you go west, but as you go east, you feel as if you're in Greenwich, Connecticut.

00:58:30.000 What's going on in North Carolina?

00:58:32.000 Yeah, that's well said.

00:58:33.000 I actually grew up in North Carolina, so I have a little bit of...

00:58:39.000 Again, I think when I talk about things look good compared to where they've been, we have our first ever lead, I believe, in the modern history of early voting in that GOP, I believe, has about a 1%, maybe even a little bit more advantage in terms of ballots that are out there right now.

00:58:57.000 So that's great.

00:58:59.000 Again, there's a lot of independence, so it's not definitive, but it is encouraging.

00:59:03.000 I am a little bit worried that there's still a lot of There's still a lot of kind of complications that we're dealing with from Hurricane Helene that hit Western North Carolina, of course, really hard.

00:59:15.000 That is a very heavily Republican area.

00:59:17.000 And when I've been looking at it, it still seems like turnout is lagging a little bit there.

00:59:22.000 But, you know, the fact that we're going in with this lead and probably about 80% of the vote or, you know, 70 to 80%, at least, Counted already.

00:59:32.000 For us to be in a ballot lead and expecting a good election day, I think that we are going to be in very good shape going in.

00:59:40.000 Again, if we lose North Carolina, I don't think it's going to be because of anything we can see right now.

00:59:45.000 It'll only be because something weird happened with independents or a group that we were counting on for election day turnout just doesn't turn out.

00:59:53.000 But I think this was a state we won by about 1.2, 1.3 points.

00:59:58.000 I think we're actually going to build on that margin, and I just don't see that we're going to lose that 1.3 points in this environment that would turn it over to Harris.

01:00:09.000 So let's talk about Georgia.

01:00:09.000 Georgia.

01:00:11.000 Georgia has early voting culture.

01:00:12.000 Black turnout is down.

01:00:14.000 What is going on in Georgia and Donald Trump's pathway to victory?

01:00:18.000 Yeah, again, you have a situation where Black turnout is down about a percent.

01:00:24.000 I think white turnout is up a half a percent or so or one percent.

01:00:27.000 And you might look at that and say, well, you know, that's not such a big deal.

01:00:30.000 But you're talking about a race that was decided by fractions of a...

01:00:37.000 Percent in the last election.

01:00:39.000 So if if we just had partisan voting, according to form, I think you would expect again, Georgia, where again, we have probably 80% of the vote already in, you'd expect Georgia to at least narrowly Go for us.

01:00:53.000 We've had extremely strong turnout also in the rurals, particularly in North Georgia, much more so than normal.

01:01:00.000 And we're kind of left with people who I think are pretty regular voters.

01:01:04.000 I'd much rather count on some of these very regular voters in the suburbs to show up on Election Day.

01:01:11.000 You can't always count on the rurals to the level that we've gotten them.

01:01:14.000 So I think, again, things look good for us.

01:01:18.000 We'll know a lot about Georgia and North Carolina Shortly after the polls close, they will announce a significant percentage, if not all, of their mail balloting, which will be a significant percentage of the state.

01:01:30.000 I think if we're up for that early count, we should feel absolutely fantastic about our chances.

01:01:35.000 I think if we're even within a point or two, I'll feel okay.

01:01:39.000 If we're down more than that, then that would be a sign for early concern.

01:01:43.000 So I want to play a piece of tape here, and I just want to say we're getting lots of emails, freedom at charliekirk.com.

01:01:48.000 I want to hear from you.

01:01:49.000 Also, if you live in the state of Iowa, can you guys email me, please, freedom at charliekirk.com?

01:01:53.000 And it's actually because I'm pulse-checking the Seltzer poll, and I have nine emails here, Jeremy, of people saying, I don't know what she's talking about.

01:02:02.000 All my neighbors used to vote for Biden, and now they're for Trump, and all my people are still for Trump.

01:02:06.000 So I'm just kind of vibe-checking it.

01:02:08.000 Which is important, right?

01:02:09.000 Because in order for that poll to be right, you'd have to have Obama-level enthusiasm.

01:02:12.000 Because Obama won Iowa back in 2008, but he did not, I believe, in 2012.

01:02:16.000 So I just want to vibe check some of this.

01:02:18.000 Okay, let's play this here.

01:02:19.000 I think it's very important.

01:02:20.000 This is cut 34 of Jim Messina with Jen Psaki saying that it's scary.

01:02:30.000 Something is very scary.

01:02:31.000 This should be the number.

01:02:31.000 This, by the way, this is the most hopeful piece of tape that I've seen in quite some time, everybody.

01:02:37.000 Scary.

01:02:37.000 Playcut 34.

01:02:38.000 Okay, what's their biggest concern right now if you're the Harris team?

01:02:43.000 Well, look, I think it's a couple things.

01:02:45.000 The early vote numbers are a little scary, and you and I have been texting back and forth.

01:02:50.000 Republicans didn't do what they did last time.

01:02:53.000 Last time Trump said don't early vote, and so they didn't.

01:02:56.000 Republicans do have an advantage in early vote numbers.

01:02:59.000 When the early vote come in, it's going to look a little bit different than 2020, and that's scary.

01:03:05.000 Jeremy, your take.

01:03:06.000 Yeah, I think it's right.

01:03:07.000 I mean, we're just in a much, much better situation across the country in early voting.

01:03:12.000 And that's where you're seeing these things in North Carolina.

01:03:16.000 I'm not allowed to talk about Arizona.

01:03:17.000 So we'll talk about Nevada everywhere.

01:03:19.000 No, Arizona.

01:03:23.000 We're seeing much more positive early voting.

01:03:25.000 At the same time, we need to not be complacent because to some degree, right, you're just taking people who were general election voters or election day voters and you're bringing them to be early voters.

01:03:38.000 Now, that has a value because...

01:03:40.000 You still don't have to chase after those guys on Election Day, and so you can chase after other voters.

01:03:45.000 So there is value in that, but it's not the same value as, yeah, and I know you are, truly bringing in a new voter who wouldn't have been there.

01:03:54.000 But as best we can tell, we look at things called voting.

01:03:58.000 Voter propensity, which is essentially how, you know, for your voters, how often are these guys voting?

01:04:04.000 So do you just have your high propensity voters showing up, the guys who vote all the time, or do you have low propensity voters, people who seldom or rarely vote?

01:04:13.000 Part of the basis for me being cautiously optimistic is that we are seeming to turn out not just our high propensity voters, but low propensity voters in these states.

01:04:22.000 And at the same time, the Democrats seem to be struggling a little bit with that.

01:04:27.000 I'm not worried about Iowa.

01:04:29.000 We are not going to lose Iowa.

01:04:30.000 I'm just going to say that right out.

01:04:32.000 I mean, I'm not casting aspersions on Seltzer, but it's just not going to happen.

01:04:38.000 I would be stunned, and it would certainly be very negative if Iowa was even within five.

01:04:45.000 I would not be surprised to see us win Iowa by 10, which has been a little bit more consistent with other polls.

01:04:50.000 If you look at voter registration trends in Iowa, again, it's enormously favorable.

01:04:54.000 We went from like a 40,000 voter registration advantage in 2020 to like 180,000 a day.

01:05:01.000 And this is in a state of just a little more than 3 million people.

01:05:03.000 So this is a really Jeremy, so the equation that Blake, who's very smart in our show, and he's right, says if four out of four voters turn out and a lot of three out of fours, and we keep getting some low props in, we win.

01:05:23.000 Is that correct?

01:05:24.000 And who is doing better right now with low propensity voters?

01:05:27.000 That's correct.

01:05:28.000 And we seem to be doing better.

01:05:30.000 And again, that's why I'm optimistic.

01:05:32.000 And again, I'm not saying optimistic to be complacent.

01:05:36.000 If anything, I feel like maybe the vibes are a little bit less good than they were a week ago, but the data still continues to be very good.

01:05:42.000 So that gives me optimism.

01:05:44.000 As best where we can tell, we can't tell in every state.

01:05:47.000 And in some states, you're modeling partisanship, so you don't know whether the voter is Republicans or Democrats.

01:05:54.000 But in states where we do seem to know, like Nevada, like North Carolina, we are turning out...

01:05:59.000 There's another state I can't mention, but it's also the same sort of thing going on.

01:06:06.000 We seem to be turning out more low-prop voters than the Democrats.

01:06:10.000 And that is...

01:06:11.000 Very, very encouraging, especially me turning them out early because it's hard to get these voters.

01:06:16.000 Usually if they do vote at all, they tend to be maybe more last minute election day voters.

01:06:20.000 So the fact that we're turning some of these guys out now early is really encouraging.

01:06:25.000 And it's one of the reasons why in a state like Nevada, where in Clark County, the Democrats have a 6,000 voter advantage in sort of low and mid propensity registered voters, but they have just a few thousand more actual voters So,

01:06:50.000 by the way, I just got an email, a text message from a low-propensity voter that I registered to vote.

01:07:00.000 Charlie, great meeting you.

01:07:01.000 I got my new license.

01:07:02.000 What do I do?

01:07:03.000 We helped get it all figured out.

01:07:04.000 He just sent a picture, just went to church and voted.

01:07:07.000 That is a low-prop voter in Arizona banked.

01:07:09.000 That is happening thousands of times a day, thanks to our Turning Point Action Army, myself included.

01:07:14.000 I chased the ballot of my Amazon driver last night.

01:07:17.000 Big fan of ours, and we got that in.

01:07:20.000 So, Jeremy, we need to turn out.

01:07:22.000 That's needless to say.

01:07:23.000 Let me ask you a difficult question, two and a half minutes remaining.

01:07:25.000 If Kamala were to win, what needs to happen?

01:07:29.000 Well, if she wins legitimately, we would have to look really carefully at what we didn't do the before.

01:07:35.000 That we didn't turn out.

01:07:37.000 I would expect at this point, if she were to win, we're turning out our voters.

01:07:42.000 So what it would have to be is that we really lost particularly a lot of more educated white voters in the suburbs.

01:07:49.000 If those folks really move strongly toward Kamala, we would be in trouble.

01:07:53.000 And I think, honestly, this is a natural GOP constituency.

01:07:56.000 And so we should be really working.

01:07:58.000 I still think even if we win this, we're not nearly where we should be with these voters, given that the Democratic Party is consistently hostile to the interest of white Americans.

01:08:08.000 So I think that there would be things there that I would look at.

01:08:12.000 That would be probably the thing.

01:08:13.000 And then also, if women voters really turn against us because of the abortion question and other things, we're not going to obviously overlook any of our fundamental commitments.

01:08:25.000 But we are going to have to think very carefully in that case about how we talk to them, how we reach these voters with the right sort of message that's going to bring them back to our side.

01:08:32.000 So that's the sorts of things that I'll be looking at if we don't get the result we want on Tuesday.

01:08:37.000 Jeremy Carl, thank you so much.

01:08:39.000 Thank you.

01:08:40.000 Thanks so much, Charlie.

01:08:41.000 Pleasure to be on.

01:08:42.000 Alright everybody, let's wrap this up.

01:08:43.000 We have a third hour coming up.

01:08:44.000 By the way, tonight, the last MAGA rally, we'll be covering it live.

01:08:47.000 So make yourself a nice cup of coffee.

01:08:49.000 By the way, if you're going to sleep well tonight, I want to know how that's possible.

01:08:52.000 I don't think any MAGA faithful is sleeping well tonight.

01:08:55.000 I think there's going to be a lot of restless nights tonight.

01:08:58.000 As it should be, by the way.

01:09:00.000 If you're sleeping comfortable, you're way too cocky.

01:09:03.000 If we will win, if, if, if, if, if we turn out in big numbers.

01:09:06.000 For nine years, we've been in the trenches.

01:09:08.000 For nine years, we've been laboring in these fields.

01:09:12.000 For nine years.

01:09:13.000 Everybody, you have one day left.

01:09:15.000 One day left.

01:09:16.000 To text everybody on your phone.

01:09:18.000 By the way, if you're like, oh, I'm worried about being annoying with Trump.

01:09:21.000 This is done.

01:09:21.000 That's it.

01:09:22.000 You'll never have to advocate for Trump to somebody ever again.

01:09:24.000 This is it.

01:09:25.000 What a great opportunity.

01:09:26.000 Lean into it.

01:09:27.000 How awesome is that?

01:09:28.000 Do it with gratitude and joy.

01:09:30.000 You say, I get to advocate for this man that I believe that will save the country.

01:09:34.000 And I believe that's exactly right.

01:09:36.000 So lean into that, everybody.

01:09:38.000 Open up your phone right now and text 600 of your friends.

01:09:42.000 Have you voted?

01:09:43.000 Do you have a plan to vote?

01:09:44.000 Have you voted?

01:09:47.000 Go wear the MAGA hat right now into the grocery store.

01:09:50.000 Talk to every single person.

01:09:53.000 Imaginable.

01:09:54.000 Email us as always, freedom at charliekirk.com.

01:09:56.000 I want to hear from you, by the way.

01:09:57.000 The Iowa faithful are coming into the email inbox.

01:10:00.000 They say Iowa's going to be fine and the poll's a bunch of BS. Okay, I hope that's right.

01:10:03.000 Iowa better turn out in big numbers if that's true.

01:10:06.000 But more importantly, Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, Nevada, let's make this surge.

01:10:11.000 We sustain the surge and victory will emerge.

01:10:15.000 Hey everybody, Charlie Kirk here.

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01:11:17.000 Joining us now is a great friend of mine and truly terrific person, Pastor James Cadiz.

01:11:25.000 Pastor, welcome back to the program.

01:11:27.000 Charlie, glad to be here with you, brother.

01:11:29.000 So, James, you and I have been texting for quite some time, and to your great credit, you have come out with great moral and biblical and theological clarity as to how Christians should view this election.

01:11:41.000 Right now, there are millions of Christians that are sitting on the sideline considering not to vote or to vote for Kamala.

01:11:48.000 How should Christians view their biblical duty these next 24 hours?

01:11:53.000 Well, this is a very remarkable place that we're in right now.

01:11:56.000 And I'm going to come from a perspective that a lot of people might not necessarily take because an overwhelming majority of the church, especially in the United States of America, refrains from having a conversation regarding Bible prophecy and the things that are going to be happening in the last days.

01:12:11.000 And what we're hearing a lot of in the church right now is, well, Jesus is coming back any moment.

01:12:17.000 The country is going to burn to the ground.

01:12:20.000 It doesn't matter.

01:12:22.000 So we might as well just run away and not vote, not participate, not to mention the fact that Trump is kind of an unscrupulous guy.

01:12:32.000 And although he might be the lesser of two evils, he's not the person that we want to vote for.

01:12:36.000 And I want to make myself very, very clear.

01:12:38.000 I'm going to simply start by saying that I think that President Trump will go down as one of the greatest presidents we have ever had in U.S. history.

01:12:45.000 I want to make myself clear in saying that, especially from the perspective of a man whose mom and dad were both born and raised in Egypt.

01:12:51.000 I'm first generation born into this country and I very clearly understand the dynamic that's going on in the Middle East, all of the things that are happening.

01:12:59.000 And if you study Bible prophecy and you know what the Bible says concerning the end times, we are seeing the manifestation of so many of those things beginning to formulate right now.

01:13:09.000 And Jesus told us a parable.

01:13:12.000 This parable is referred to or known as oftentimes the parable of the talents.

01:13:16.000 And the thing that's interesting about this parable is Jesus basically talked about three different guys.

01:13:22.000 One guy who basically was given five talents, another who was given two, another who was given one.

01:13:27.000 The two who were given five and the other one that was given two, they multiplied their efforts and received or made more talents.

01:13:36.000 And God praised them and said, well done, good and faithful servants.

01:13:39.000 And yet the one decided that he was going to bury his talent.

01:13:43.000 Now, what's unique about this are two very specific variables.

01:13:47.000 Number one, he tells his master in this story, I was fearful basically of you.

01:13:53.000 This is, in essence, the translation.

01:13:55.000 And I know you're a man who reaps where you have not sown.

01:14:00.000 And in essence, you're a hearted man.

01:14:02.000 So I just basically decided that I was going to...

01:14:05.000 Bury this.

01:14:06.000 And I think if you consider the response of Jesus, it was heavier. 0.94

01:14:10.000 The response that Jesus told us this master had, it was, hey, listen, you lazy and slothful servant, you evil and slothful servant.

01:14:19.000 And the thing that's interesting about this Is to consider the fact that the context that Jesus tells this parable in was one very powerful place and that was the end of the world.

01:14:29.000 He was sharing this parable in the end of the world.

01:14:32.000 And what he was saying was, I've told you, I've given you talents.

01:14:36.000 And those talents, the valuable treasure that I've given you is knowledge of what is going to happen in the last days.

01:14:41.000 And I don't want you taking that knowledge and burying it in the ground by saying, Maranatha, I can't wait until I fly.

01:14:48.000 I can't wait until I fly and do nothing about it.

01:14:51.000 He wants us to realize that he could come at any moment.

01:14:54.000 The rapture could happen at any moment, which is why we should be in school board meetings, which is why we should be voting, which is why we should certainly be voting for somebody like Trump rather than somebody like Kamala Harris, because Kamala Harris represents every evil and wicked thing that you can possibly imagine.

01:15:10.000 And you can see manifestations of it in every corner, and it's very dark, but it's very important that we point this out.

01:15:16.000 I don't know about you, Charlie, but I don't want to be the guy who's caught bearing my talent going, well, Lord, I knew you were going to come back and I was really scared.

01:15:22.000 And so I just knew that the world was going to blow up anyway.

01:15:25.000 Jesus would say, you are a wicked and you are a slothful servant and you did not do with that knowledge. 0.80

01:15:31.000 I have that knowledge. 0.96

01:15:32.000 I know.

01:15:33.000 I'm able to understand the geopolitics of the world and I act on it.

01:15:36.000 And that's what I'm doing.

01:15:37.000 And based on that is why I make my decision.

01:15:39.000 James, is it ever in the Bible say that you should allow evil to spread if you have an ability to stop it in the end times?

01:15:47.000 Is that biblical?

01:15:48.000 No, no way.

01:15:49.000 As a matter of fact, we are given a mandate in the Bible.

01:15:51.000 2 Thessalonians 2, verse 3 says that the final Antichrist cannot even reveal himself until the church is removed from the earth, which means we're given a mandate. 0.86

01:16:03.000 And the reason for that in 2 Thessalonians 2, verses 6 and 7 is that we are the restraining force.

01:16:09.000 The church filled with the Spirit of God are the restrainers that keep it from coming into fruition.

01:16:14.000 The Bible even goes so far as to tell us a pattern of what totalitarian rule does and what it looks like in the end times.

01:16:22.000 In Revelation chapter 6, it talks about a white horse, it talks about a red horse, a dark horse or a black horse and a pale horse.

01:16:29.000 The white horse, a totalitarian ruler who comes in, who rules without a bow or an arrow.

01:16:35.000 He convinces everybody about a revolution.

01:16:37.000 And it's speaking, of course, of the final Antichrist, the last one.

01:16:41.000 Then he brings in war.

01:16:42.000 His totalitarian rule brings in war.

01:16:44.000 And the result of war is economic failure or collapse.

01:16:47.000 And it's funny because when he talks about the black horse, he says, do not touch the oil and the wine.

01:16:52.000 That means there will be a ruling class.

01:16:54.000 That will remain intact when economic failure happens as a result of war.

01:16:59.000 And then it brings us to the pale horse, which by the way, when Christians are gone because they'll be raptured at this point, the end result of totalitarianism by the Antichrist during this time is the death of a quarter of the world's population. 0.75

01:17:13.000 That is literally two and a half to three billion people.

01:17:16.000 Imagine, imagine what that looks like when Christians aren't there. 1.00

01:17:21.000 Right now we see 100 million people dying in the last century as a result of totalitarian rule, communism and socialism.

01:17:28.000 And that's with Christians here on this earth. 0.99

01:17:30.000 Imagine what happens when Christians are not. 0.99

01:17:32.000 And that becomes a mandate from the Bible based on Bible prophecy that we are supposed to fight.

01:17:38.000 Listen, I don't stand up and tell people to vote for Trump because I believe we're going to win the election.

01:17:43.000 I do it because God commands me to do it.

01:17:46.000 And if God shows us his grace and allows that to take place...

01:17:50.000 Then we stand and we say, to God be the glory.

01:17:53.000 So, James, let's go through that.

01:17:53.000 Amen.

01:17:55.000 So, Donald Trump is a great president, and you and I both wish that we want the Republican Party to become more pro-life in the future.

01:18:03.000 But we're one day out from the election.

01:18:05.000 We're not going to fix that.

01:18:06.000 So talk about the issues, the biblical principles of first, why a Christian cannot vote for Kamala Harris, why that is irreconcilable, and then make the case for Donald Trump through a biblical context.

01:18:19.000 So start with Kamala Harris and the Democrats and then with Donald Trump.

01:18:22.000 Okay, Kamala Harris cannot be voted for because Kamala Harris hates the God of our fathers. 1.00

01:18:27.000 And I think this is important because you might be watching me and you may not be a Christian.

01:18:32.000 You may not even care about Christianity.

01:18:33.000 And that's okay.

01:18:35.000 God honors your free will.

01:18:36.000 And of course, so do I. But the problem is this.

01:18:39.000 Freedom is a direct function of God intervening in our lives and providing it for us.

01:18:46.000 Our founding fathers created the Constitution with a referendum that was predicated upon biblical principles.

01:18:52.000 I mean, even right down to how it classified slaves.

01:18:56.000 There was a process that was involved.

01:18:59.000 And it's funny because when you start looking at all of the 27 amendments that we have in the Constitution and specifically the first 10, which we know is the Bill of Rights, it was all predicated upon biblical ideas, the idea behind our freedom and what that freedom looks like.

01:19:14.000 And if you think about it, what they're doing to Donald Trump right now, they violated his First Amendment rights, definitely his Fourth and Fifth, easily his Seventh Amendment, his Eighth Amendment rights.

01:19:24.000 You think about the things that are going on, if they can do that, if Kamala's administration can do that to Donald Trump right now, imagine what they can do to you for experiencing freedom.

01:19:35.000 And if Kamala gets voted into office from day one, this is what's going to happen. 0.99

01:19:40.000 Day one, we will become a socialist country.

01:19:43.000 Day one, and I promise you, this is going to happen.

01:19:46.000 They are going to go after religious freedom even more than they ever have before.

01:19:50.000 And the other thing that they're going to do is they're going to stack the Supreme Court.

01:19:53.000 They are going to take away the Supreme Court's ability to rule based on the language of the Constitution.

01:19:59.000 And rather, it's going to become an activist mechanism that is designed to destroy the very freedoms that the founding fathers chose to create within us.

01:20:08.000 And I think that this is very, very important.

01:20:10.000 And this is the reason why they're coming after our Second Amendment rights, because our Second Amendment rights were created by the Founding Father to defend our First Amendment rights.

01:20:19.000 And when you begin to think about all of these other things that settle around it, you know, an expansion of the Fifth Amendment based on what was written in the Fourteenth Amendment regarding these protection rights that we have, it's remarkable.

01:20:32.000 All of that goes away if Kamala Harris is voted into office, every last bit of it.

01:20:37.000 So, Pastor James, allow me to read this tweet here that was sent out by a pastor by the name of Pastor Ray Ortlund.

01:20:46.000 So, Pastor Ray Ortlund is a very well-known pastor that said this, How should we think about pastors who say such things as this?

01:20:58.000 If you go to that man's church, run the heck away from his church because what he just shared with you is brutally demonic.

01:21:06.000 And one of the things I want to say very, very clearly here, and this involves just sharing a small little story of something that happened with me about four months ago.

01:21:14.000 Maybe it was more than that.

01:21:15.000 It was about six months ago when President Trump had announced his newly formed position with respect to abortion.

01:21:22.000 One of the things that I did was I took to Instagram and even made a few YouTube videos.

01:21:27.000 And let me just simply say this erroneously said that I would not vote for somebody like President Trump, knowing that I had voted for him every single time and proudly voted for him and encourage other people to vote for him.

01:21:40.000 But I said I could not vote for him if he's taking this stand on abortion, especially as a father who has three children, a six-year-old, a three-year-old and a two-year-old, all adopted by the grace of God.

01:21:51.000 Amazing children that I love.

01:21:53.000 I hate abortion.

01:21:54.000 But here's the thing that I learned very quickly when I came to that conclusion.

01:21:58.000 You see, I was hoping to get other pastors to rally against me and maybe help to change President Trump's mind.

01:22:04.000 But there's something that God showed me, and I was very convicted by it, which is why I'm taking the stand that I'm taking.

01:22:09.000 And that's this.

01:22:11.000 First and foremost, Kamala Harris hates life. 0.90

01:22:14.000 She is part of the community and the world of death.

01:22:17.000 She is a neo-Malthusian, a completely angry and embittered and enraged individual who has a bloodlust for the life of children. 1.00

01:22:27.000 How in the world can you trust somebody like Kamala Harris to take care of your life after watching what she did to this country over the last four years? 0.94

01:22:36.000 And this is the conclusion that I came to when I started really thinking about this and doing some soul searching.

01:22:41.000 Look at what President Trump did in the four years he was in office and look at the last four years.

01:22:47.000 Let me take one step further when we talk about pro-life.

01:22:50.000 Wade was overturned.

01:22:50.000 Roe v.

01:22:51.000 We thought no way it would be overturned.

01:22:53.000 It was overturned because of the Supreme Court justices that was actually bought in by President Trump.

01:22:58.000 And I want to make one more statement because this is really critical.

01:23:00.000 It's important everybody know this.

01:23:02.000 When Roe v.

01:23:03.000 Wade was overturned, the hardcore, death-loving, ridiculous Democratic left, the haters of life, went into a panic and went on their way to get out every kind of other abortive tool that they can. 0.62

01:23:18.000 And we went from 900,000 babies being killed when Roe v.

01:23:23.000 Wade was overturned to what will be 1.7 million babies dying by the end of this year because of what Kamala Harris did because of what Joe Biden did. 1.00

01:23:33.000 And we will see that number double because they have a love for death.

01:23:37.000 And let me make this position very clear.

01:23:39.000 How can you trust anybody to take care of your life when they hated you before you were even born?

01:23:47.000 President Trump loves listening to godly men.

01:23:51.000 He is open to listening to pastors.

01:23:54.000 And I have a deep-rooted personal love for a man like that who would give up absolutely everything to make this country better and also to understand that he's the only president that stood in the March for Life.

01:24:07.000 He's the only president.

01:24:08.000 He is the president that did more in the last four years for the unborn than any other president in U.S. history, and now all of a sudden we're going to get on this high horse and say we're not voting for him?

01:24:18.000 That is a satanic ploy.

01:24:20.000 And I'm sorry, I just have to say.

01:24:22.000 No, you don't need to apologize.

01:24:23.000 Final issue here, James, is Israel.

01:24:26.000 Donald Trump was very, very good on Israel, moved the embassy to Jerusalem, something I know is near and dear to your heart and your audience.

01:24:32.000 Why should Donald Trump earn the support of Christians who care about the nation of Israel?

01:24:36.000 One minute remaining.

01:24:37.000 I will just tell you, this is very, very important.

01:24:39.000 You should do it because Donald Trump has historically lent out his support, even probably more so than any other president in U.S. history.

01:24:47.000 Once again, he didn't talk.

01:24:49.000 He brought it into action.

01:24:50.000 He brought the U.S. Embassy into Jerusalem.

01:24:53.000 Listen, Yerushalayim has been the very place of the heart of every Jew that's out there.

01:24:57.000 And he stood for the right for Jews to continue to live in their homeland without being disturbed.

01:25:03.000 And I'm a man.

01:25:04.000 Listen, I can tell you this right now.

01:25:05.000 I understand what they mean when they say min shah bar bar.

01:25:08.000 Most of these people don't understand.

01:25:10.000 You've got these college students walking around with their kafiyas around their neck.

01:25:13.000 And they have no idea what they represent.

01:25:14.000 They don't understand our culture, our background.

01:25:17.000 They don't speak our language. 1.00

01:25:18.000 Yet Donald Trump seems to understand it all.

01:25:21.000 And the work that he's done in Israel has been remarkable.

01:25:23.000 And I am grateful to God Almighty for what Donald Trump has done for Israel and what I know he'll continue to do for Israel, which is why our nation will be blessed.

01:25:31.000 I will bless those that bless thee and I will curse those that curse thee is what God said concerning the nation of Israel.

01:25:37.000 Donald Trump knows that because he's listening to pastors and that's why he's blessing Israel so that the United States of America will be blessed.

01:25:43.000 James, God bless you.

01:25:45.000 Let's get this message out to your whole audience.

01:25:45.000 Thank you.

01:25:47.000 We'll get you this interview so that all of your millions of followers can see this.

01:25:51.000 James, thank you so much.

01:25:52.000 It's an honor.

01:25:53.000 God bless you.

01:25:56.000 Hey everybody, Charlie Kirk here.

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01:26:57.000 Joining us now is Mitchell Brown, Army veteran and also runs Signal, C-Y-G-N-A-L. Mitchell, welcome to the program.

01:27:06.000 Thanks for having me, Charlie.

01:27:07.000 All right, so Mitchell, you're a Republican pollster and also a director of strategy at Signal.

01:27:13.000 So Mitchell, let's open up just kind of with what you are seeing.

01:27:17.000 What is the state of the race?

01:27:19.000 Yeah, so a little bit back on us.

01:27:21.000 We're currently doing two states for the Trump campaign.

01:27:24.000 We're tracking daily momentum in North Carolina and Pennsylvania for the team there.

01:27:29.000 So I can talk about this kind of in two separate buckets here.

01:27:33.000 For North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona, there's no troubling signs for the Trump team.

01:27:39.000 Looking like all three of those states are going to be around plus three.

01:27:42.000 For Trump, end of the day, could hit plus five if turnout does hit what we're thinking it might in those three.

01:27:49.000 But then when we talk about Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, Pennsylvania, I've seen a little bit of a negative trend in the past week and a half or so.

01:27:58.000 But in Wisconsin and Michigan, I've actually seen a big increase for Trump to where those are the two Rust Belt states I'm most confident in right now.

01:28:05.000 Okay, so what do you attribute the negative trend in Pennsylvania to be?

01:28:09.000 When you're looking at it, it's still the suburban white woman.

01:28:13.000 When we go to that mainline Philadelphia suburbs there, we're seeing that bleeding a little worse than it was in 2020.

01:28:19.000 And so Trump can, again, go run up the vote in western Pennsylvania and some of those areas that he needs to and still have that be offset if the performance is worse in, say, Bucks County or any of the other mainline suburb areas.

01:28:32.000 So what demographic specifically of women?

01:28:35.000 Is it older, middle-aged?

01:28:37.000 What demographic?

01:28:39.000 So the best two indicators actually are one, just economics.

01:28:43.000 So wealthy women and white women are the two that are, again, trouncing us right now. 1.00

01:28:48.000 Trump is going to do better with every single demographic group in this country this year, except for the three W's. 0.96

01:28:54.000 White voters, women, and wealthy voters. 0.97

01:28:56.000 And it's really amplified there in Pennsylvania.

01:28:59.000 Women... 1.00

01:29:00.000 It's about the 45 plus range that are high income households, which again for our indication there is 125,000 and above is what we're classifying that as.

01:29:10.000 That's the real sore spot.

01:29:11.000 Why is it that upper middle class white women are so loyal to the Democrat Party? 1.00

01:29:17.000 What is that all about?

01:29:19.000 Well, it's interesting for them when you don't have to worry about, again, the price of groceries.

01:29:23.000 You don't double check when you have to go fill up your tank.

01:29:25.000 Life is very easy for you.

01:29:27.000 So you have to find something to be invested in.

01:29:29.000 And the Democrats, again, have done a great job of just making Roe the only issue and saying that we're attacking women.

01:29:35.000 These women don't have anything. 1.00

01:29:37.000 They have the luxury of not having to care about anything else.

01:29:39.000 So that's why you see this.

01:29:40.000 This is the opposite trend with lower income women. 1.00

01:29:43.000 And even younger women.

01:29:44.000 We can talk about that in a second, just about voters under the age of 30 and how well Trump is doing with them.

01:29:49.000 But when we go to Ohio and we go to Michigan and Wisconsin, where they don't have super affluent suburbs as they do in Pennsylvania, you could see there that when people have to deal with everyday issues, the abortion topic slips down in popularity or importance to them, and the real things start to matter.

01:30:06.000 So yeah, let's dive deeper into that.

01:30:09.000 How is Donald Trump doing with voters under 30?

01:30:11.000 So if you go back to 16 and you go back to 20, you look at what the actual split was.

01:30:18.000 So the classification we have is 18 to 29.

01:30:21.000 So Trump lost 18 to 29 voters by 31 points in 2016.

01:30:26.000 By 27, In 2020, he's currently only down nine nationally in our polling.

01:30:32.000 So it's gonna be single digit margin there for Trump, which is incredible, because then you look at the next age group, 30 to 44.

01:30:40.000 And this Gen Z audience is actually outperforming the millennial audience with Trump voters.

01:30:46.000 Yeah.

01:30:47.000 So what do you attribute that to?

01:30:49.000 Again, it's a tough place to be.

01:30:50.000 I'm 30, so I'm just outside of that group.

01:30:53.000 I'm a younger millennial.

01:30:54.000 And the same issues that I deal with here is the future doesn't look too bright if you're an 18 to 29-year-old looking out there today.

01:31:01.000 How are you ever going to purchase a home?

01:31:03.000 How are you, again, going to compete in this labor marketplace when you're saddled with student loan debt because no one will stand up to the banks?

01:31:10.000 Where, again, the open borders causing massive rates of inflation, and it's impacting the job market there.

01:31:16.000 How did these young kids who've also been told for the past 10 years, say if we break down just the men in this age group, who've been told that everything about them is wrong for the past 10 years, that's what we're seeing now is that cultural kickback.

01:31:29.000 That, again, you guys have done a great job going out on the campuses, registering these people to vote, and you can see the shift.

01:31:34.000 In 2020, again, people were a lot more scared to go out and say this, especially on the college campuses, and you can see now that kids are willing to talk about the issues that matter to them, and they see their future, and they see that another four years of this means another four years of them having to put the rest of their life on hold.

01:31:50.000 So help me understand now, turnout.

01:31:52.000 Seems that, is it correct that black turnout and Democrat-based turnout in certain parts of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia is down?

01:32:00.000 Is that correct?

01:32:01.000 And therefore, what does that mean?

01:32:03.000 Yeah, so for Philadelphia and Atlanta, it is down a couple hundred thousand in both of those, respectively.

01:32:10.000 Now, again, it is a little hard to guess as to, are those people still going to show up on Election Day and they just didn't happen to early vote?

01:32:18.000 We don't, again, don't really know there.

01:32:20.000 And Wisconsin, that's the one why I'm so bullish on Wisconsin now, is that's the true one that we've seen a complete reversal In early voting turnout.

01:32:29.000 It's deep red areas, especially like Green Bay when Trump was there two weeks ago.

01:32:34.000 That's where you need to run up the score there.

01:32:36.000 Because obviously Milwaukee, we're going to have some election day stuff that comes in there that will be a little bit higher than what people are even predicting now.

01:32:44.000 It looks though like Pennsylvania, I would probably guess that that's going to level out a little bit.

01:32:50.000 Georgia, that is just the true nature of it.

01:32:53.000 There's a bunch of people that we've done in focus groups down there with black voters inside Atlanta.

01:32:57.000 They're going to have a decreased turnout compared to 2020.

01:33:00.000 That's going to stay the same way that we're seeing right now.

01:33:02.000 So are we also now seeing increased rural Trump turnout in some of these states?

01:33:08.000 So you kind of have an upper-lower thing going on here.

01:33:10.000 Yeah, I think five of the seven major swing states, there is an increased rural vote to date compared to 2020.

01:33:17.000 So Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Arizona all have that ratio right now with urban vote down and rural vote up.

01:33:27.000 And so what then, if we were, I want to go around the horn though, but let me just ask you, if Kamala Harris were to win, what needs to happen?

01:33:35.000 What in the next 24 hours needs to happen for Kamala Harris to become president? 1.00

01:33:40.000 There would need to be a massive push in Philadelphia, Milwaukee, Detroit, and Atlanta.

01:33:47.000 There is no other way.

01:33:48.000 Again, I still don't even think the Atlanta one would help that much.

01:33:51.000 But if I was the Harris campaign, again, I would have taken every resource out of every other state and blasted into Philadelphia, Detroit, and Milwaukee.

01:34:00.000 Because if you don't outsize that election day turnout tomorrow, there really isn't a pathway.

01:34:04.000 Do you see any indication that they are doing that?

01:34:08.000 You can see in Pennsylvania, and I've tracked that in my data.

01:34:11.000 They've done a good job in the past week and a half.

01:34:13.000 That's why I think that that one is going to even out and turn out.

01:34:17.000 My data is not reflecting that in Michigan and Wisconsin.

01:34:20.000 So what does that look like?

01:34:22.000 I mean, buses, you know, transportation.

01:34:25.000 Is it the good old-fashioned kind of Democrat machinery in Philadelphia?

01:34:28.000 Is that right?

01:34:29.000 Yeah, and then again, I assume we're going to see a lot of instances where polling places are kept open later in those places that something happens.

01:34:36.000 And so anything for Philadelphia could happen.

01:34:40.000 I was a poll observer in Milwaukee in 2020, and this is exactly what happened.

01:34:45.000 Again, we kept the polls open two hours later.

01:34:48.000 So I would expect a lot of that because if outside the busing, having the food trucks, getting every single person they can Out to vote in those two states, they don't have anything left to do.

01:34:59.000 We've seen it.

01:34:59.000 Pittsburgh, in that western Pennsylvania area, is already solidified so that they can't do anything.

01:35:05.000 That's why they pulled all their media out of North Carolina and put it into Pennsylvania, is they, again, need an overturn out tomorrow there specifically.

01:35:14.000 Now, it seems as if there is an increased attention on the male-female divide this cycle.

01:35:20.000 It seems like that gap is closing.

01:35:23.000 Female turnout is actually down from where it was in 2020, despite all of the pandemonium here.

01:35:29.000 And that can be best explained by the disappearance of the Dem-Indy voter, that kind of Democrat-Indy.

01:35:35.000 Do you see that also in your data?

01:35:37.000 Yeah, the only thing of note with that low female number is it still has to be for Trump the right women that aren't showing up to vote. 1.00

01:35:47.000 If it's the low propensity, lower income woman voter that is kind of more of that indie that we've seen recently, that's actually not a good thing.

01:35:56.000 Those are actually women that have come to Trump more recently. 1.00

01:36:00.000 That's what we're seeing a little bit in Michigan.

01:36:03.000 Wisconsin, that group is still actually out voting what they did in 20.

01:36:08.000 In Pennsylvania, that's, again, another sign of why I'm a little worried, is the decrease looks to be women in areas where we kind of do actually need them to show up. 0.88

01:36:19.000 Now, when we're talking about the gender gap here, the real issue, narrow it down to men age 35 to 50 that are white and educated are so close to becoming 50 50 voters in this country that the gender gap is almost mattering less than what I talked about before being just the straight income gap.

01:36:40.000 Yeah.

01:36:41.000 And it just it's remarkable kind of as those two things are diverging.

01:36:46.000 So what does your final data show?

01:36:48.000 If you were to call the shot, what's going to happen tomorrow?

01:36:50.000 Yeah, so like I mentioned, I think Trump takes North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and then I'll go and say both Michigan and Wisconsin.

01:36:59.000 I think Harris will take Pennsylvania.

01:37:02.000 Wow.

01:37:02.000 Right there with that number you're sitting at in the high 280s for Trump.

01:37:07.000 The only one I disagree, Michigan's got a tough lift because they are as crooked as a $3 bill in Detroit.

01:37:13.000 Wisconsin?

01:37:14.000 I can tell you our internals that we just put out to the Trump campaign yesterday have it within a tenth of a point.

01:37:20.000 Again, that doesn't give me confidence.

01:37:22.000 Those people are so crooked, they'll just discover another 30,000 ballots.

01:37:26.000 However, Wisconsin, it's tougher for them to do that.

01:37:29.000 Wisconsin is a much straighter shoot when it comes to how they do elections. 0.88

01:37:34.000 How about Nevada?

01:37:35.000 Nevada's tough.

01:37:37.000 If you're making me say it now, I think Harris takes it.

01:37:41.000 Trump would have to win Arizona by four.

01:37:44.000 For Nevada to truly be his.

01:37:47.000 And again, what I'm seeing is if it's a great election day turnout, Trump can win Arizona by four to five.

01:37:52.000 I still have him plus three, plus three and a half.

01:37:54.000 Really quick, just Arizona independence.

01:37:57.000 What is your data showing on how independence are breaking? 0.96

01:38:00.000 They're breaking towards Trump on the top, but then damn the rest of the ticket in Arizona.

01:38:04.000 So Trump winning independence in Arizona? 0.96

01:38:06.000 Yes.

01:38:07.000 That would be big.

01:38:08.000 Thank you very much, Mitchell.

01:38:10.000 Thank you.

01:38:10.000 Excellent work.

01:38:11.000 Thanks for having me, Charlie.

01:38:14.000 Now this is just a little preview of what's happening tonight.

01:38:17.000 Last MAGA rally ever.

01:38:19.000 Andrew, walk our audience through the schedule.

01:38:20.000 It is pretty historic.

01:38:23.000 Well, I mean, what was it?

01:38:25.000 2015 was the first MAGA rally hosted here by Tyler Boyer, one of the guys on our team.

01:38:32.000 The audience knows him.

01:38:33.000 You guys undersell it.

01:38:34.000 He invented the MAGA rally.

01:38:36.000 That is true.

01:38:37.000 It's kind of true.

01:38:38.000 He's the Thomas Edison of MAGA rallies.

01:38:41.000 And by the way, the story behind how he actually pulled that off was pretty amazing.

01:38:45.000 Nobody wanted to do it.

01:38:47.000 And then he somehow wrangled in Sheriff Joe Arpaio.

01:38:51.000 And to see Trump and Sheriff Joe in Iraq nowadays, and the love affair that exists between those two men, like, I think Sheriff Joe wasn't even planning on endorsing him at that point, but he liked him, so he's like, okay, fine, I'll say a few words.

01:39:04.000 And so nine years of building, of toiling, of media attacks, of indictments, impeachments, It all comes down to the last MAGA rally, which is tonight, Charlie.

01:39:18.000 Grand Rapids, Michigan.

01:39:19.000 Grand Rapids, Michigan.

01:39:20.000 Which, based on our last guest, Mitchell Brown, GOP pollster from Signal, maybe he's on to something.

01:39:26.000 Because something that we talked about on the stream last night, Charlie, is there is a one-to-one.

01:39:31.000 People ask...

01:39:32.000 Okay, what about rallies?

01:39:33.000 Are we doing the voter reg?

01:39:34.000 Are we doing get out the vote?

01:39:36.000 And it's like, well, first of all, the MAGA rallies now are not like the MAGA rallies of 2016.

01:39:39.000 They're a lot more sophisticated.

01:39:41.000 There's a lot more data involved.

01:39:42.000 And we can actually see a spike when Trump goes into a location.

01:39:46.000 There will be a spike in turnout.

01:39:49.000 Yeah, it's a one to one.

01:39:50.000 So when he goes to a specific location, we see greater turnout from the GOP side.

01:39:56.000 You probably see some from the Dem side, too, just because it becomes a news story locally.

01:40:00.000 And you got all the local affiliates.

01:40:02.000 You got all the local reporters doing stories on it.

01:40:05.000 It's almost obligatory coverage.

01:40:07.000 It's a one-to-one.

01:40:07.000 And that drives turnout.

01:40:08.000 Because again, you know, Charlie, during hour one I was handling a press thing over with Turning Point Action.

01:40:14.000 We were doing a training over there.

01:40:18.000 And these are like 10 out of 10 people, right?

01:40:20.000 There are 4 out of 4 voters.

01:40:21.000 They want to get involved.

01:40:22.000 They want to help save the country.

01:40:23.000 They've already voted in their home state.

01:40:24.000 We have people from 49 states.

01:40:27.000 Every state except Vermont.

01:40:28.000 So if you're in Vermont, I want you to sign up at commit100, tpaction.com slash 100 or slash commit100.

01:40:36.000 Both URLs work.

01:40:37.000 Get in here, Vermont.

01:40:38.000 But anyways, 49 states from all over the country.

01:40:41.000 And they were like, well, people obviously know how to register to vote, and they know where to go to vote.

01:40:46.000 And it's like, no, no, no, no, no.

01:40:47.000 There are so many Americans that do not understand that they have to go into a polling center or where to drop their ballot off or whatever.

01:40:57.000 Like in Arizona, for example, Charlie, you can't drop it off by mail anymore because it would be too late.

01:41:01.000 So all these rules.

01:41:03.000 And when Trump goes into these locations, the awareness pumps up.

01:41:08.000 So let's hope he pulls off Michigan.

01:41:09.000 Let's hope the last MAGA rally tonight in Grand Rapids is a harbinger of winning that state.

01:41:15.000 What I lobbied them for and I was unsuccessful is that they should have used time zones to their advantage.

01:41:19.000 They should have done the last Magarelli where the first Magarelli was in the Phoenix Convention Center.

01:41:24.000 I think that would have been fun.

01:41:27.000 That would have been fun.

01:41:28.000 Again, you can't always get what you want.

01:41:30.000 At the end of his second term, he should go back to the escalator and just ascend upwards.

01:41:35.000 Totally.

01:41:35.000 That's right.

01:41:36.000 It should be going up.

01:41:37.000 Goodbye, everyone.

01:41:37.000 Like Elijah back to the heavens.

01:41:39.000 Exactly.

01:41:40.000 Play the chariots of fire.

01:41:41.000 What I lobbied for was morning rally in Raleigh, two in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and then do the midnight rally as it's like 3 a.m.

01:41:50.000 Eastern, and then red-eye back to Palm Beach, and then go vote.

01:41:54.000 That's okay.

01:41:54.000 Well, what is his schedule on election day?

01:41:57.000 To go vote, which is great.

01:42:00.000 Actually, at this point, they were debating, should Trump vote early?

01:42:03.000 We did really well without that.

01:42:05.000 Trump voting will be taken on every network, which is great.

01:42:08.000 He'll probably do it at 11 o'clock Eastern, which is perfect.

01:42:12.000 You know what I mean?

01:42:13.000 8 a.m.

01:42:14.000 West Coast.

01:42:14.000 Yeah, or maybe a little bit early to hit the morning shows.

01:42:16.000 He'll probably take a couple questions.

01:42:18.000 He probably is going to call into Fox and Friends.

01:42:20.000 He'll probably call into talk radio.

01:42:21.000 He's going to probably talk into Drive Time Radio in Philadelphia and, you know, all that.

01:42:26.000 And then in the afternoon, they're probably going to be working more radio stations about getting out to vote.

01:42:30.000 And then there's a big watch party in Mar-a-Lago, which we will not be there.

01:42:34.000 We will probably be right here, right where we belong, broadcasting to the masses.

01:42:38.000 Yep.

01:42:39.000 Yeah, I mean, this is, you know, probably right now, the next 18 hours, maybe 20 hours is the most political active hours on the American calendar, right?

01:42:51.000 There's been so much work that has gone into this moment.

01:42:55.000 And right now, I mean, you should...

01:42:57.000 I mean, Charlie, I don't know if you've been over there this morning.

01:42:59.000 The Turning Point Action building is a beehive of activity.

01:43:02.000 I'm going there afterwards.

01:43:03.000 We've got call centers all over the place.

01:43:06.000 People are getting trained.

01:43:07.000 Are we filming all this and putting it on social media?

01:43:09.000 We should be.

01:43:10.000 I mean, I'm not sure.

01:43:11.000 We've got to be tweeting this stuff out.

01:43:13.000 Is Democracy Institute any good?

01:43:15.000 Are they left-wing or right-wing?

01:43:17.000 With a name like that, I'm pretty wary.

01:43:19.000 It says Trump plus five in Pennsylvania.

01:43:21.000 I think it's like...

01:43:22.000 Okay, alright.

01:43:23.000 I mean, I will say they're not hurting.

01:43:25.000 That's true.

01:43:26.000 I will say that I don't know how you go from a 1.1 million firewall to 500.

01:43:32.000 Guys, we'll see you tonight at the last ever MAGA rally right here.

01:43:35.000 Thank you, Blake and Andrew, for that.

01:43:37.000 I'm going to actually go make some calls.

01:43:38.000 I'm going to eat some food, and we're going to go make some calls to the Turning Point Action folks.

01:43:40.000 Go find a voter.

01:43:42.000 Go vote now, or else the country will end.

01:43:44.000 Thanks so much for listening, everybody.

01:43:45.000 Email us, as always, freedom at charliekirk.com.

01:43:48.000 Thanks so much for listening, and God bless.

The Charlie Kirk Show - November 04, 2024

Did We Do Enough to Save the Country?

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