00:00:40.000His spirit, his love of this country, he's done an amazing job building one of the most powerful youth organizations ever created, Turning Point USA.
00:00:49.000We will not embrace the ideas that have destroyed countries, destroyed lives, and we are going to fight for freedom on campuses across the country.
00:01:26.000Inflation, gas prices, open border, an incompetent president, the most unpopular president since polling has been invented.
00:01:33.000Yet the Republican Party is struggling to raise money, get volunteers to show up for candidates, and according to some polls, down anywhere between 15 to 20 points.
00:01:43.000And again, some of these polls I think are suppression polls.
00:01:46.000However, there's something that isn't adding up.
00:01:49.000There's something that doesn't make sense.
00:01:53.000Why is the Republican Party acting like this?
00:01:58.000It does beg the question, does the Republican establishment want to lose?
00:02:16.000It was 2009, 2010, and the 2010 midterms.
00:02:19.000You see, the 2010 midterms was such a triumph for the people that it scared the establishment in Washington, D.C. You see, the 2010 midterms was such a widespread repudiation of Democrat policies and in support of Republicans, it made the Uniparty less powerful.
00:02:44.000It's where you started to get real fighters coming in to Washington, D.C. that weren't just saying the same thing over and over again.
00:02:52.000It's where you started to get fighters like Rand Paul and many others.
00:02:56.000So all of a sudden, the Uniparty was starting to say, wait a second, we can't necessarily control this.
00:03:03.000You see, the 2010 midterm elections, when Barack Obama was passing health care and stimulus bills and deficit spending, Republicans responded with the Tea Party movement.
00:03:13.000We won races all across the country in massive triumphs.
00:03:18.000The election was widely characterized as a Tea Party Republican wave election.
00:03:24.000Republicans won a net gain of 63 seats, the largest shift in seats since the 1948 elections.
00:03:33.000And it also made the Republican establishment less powerful than ever before in a generation.
00:03:39.000You see, there were new voices that they couldn't put in a box.
00:03:42.000There were people that were willing to challenge Barack Obama on the border and on his outright Marxism.
00:03:49.000That is not allowed in Washington, D.C.
00:03:52.000Now, the establishment fought back and was able to get people in their place and was able to thwart a lot of this energy over a period of time.
00:04:07.000But you see, the inner rumblings right now of the Republican Party in Washington, D.C., I guarantee you, is if we're going to win, let's win by a little.
00:04:18.000If we're going to win, let's make sure our Chamber of Commerce, easily controlled, vanilla, moderate, neoliberal candidates win.
00:04:28.000We can't let people like JD Vance or Blake Masters possibly get across the finish line.
00:05:06.000Again, the polls, you got to take it with a little bit of a grain of salt because there's turnout and enthusiasm.
00:05:11.000But the number that is most fascinating is how establishment Republican groups are no longer committing money to these races, how small dollar donations are drying up, and how all of a sudden we're seeing what should be a massive red wave election, huge support, incredible enthusiasm turn into a question of will Republicans actually end up losing more Senate seats than not?
00:05:40.000What happened to the we're going to win 100 seats in 100 years?
00:05:45.000Now, in the House of Representatives, I think that's going to happen.
00:05:48.000I don't think they could put that genie back in the bottle, but we might just win slightly instead of winning massively.
00:05:55.000Is it possible that your Republican Party, our Republican Party deep down, is cheering for a minor loss?
00:06:04.000What could possibly be the calculation behind that?
00:06:07.000The calculation is that a massive grassroots, people-centered, populist win will make the Republican establishment less powerful and displaced from power.
00:06:19.000To go back to the Tea Party movement in 2010, that was a moment that terrified the oligarchs of Washington, D.C.
00:06:32.000It was 10, it was 16, and they're worried that 22 could make 16 and 10 look like a little blip.
00:06:39.000They're worried that a legitimate tsunami is brewing in this country, and your Republican establishment is worried that might be hard to manage.
00:06:49.000You might get a lot of people like Marjorie Taylor Greene.
00:06:52.000You might get a lot of people like Lauren Boebert.
00:08:34.000They're here to serve special interests, have a nice title, ride in chauffeured cars, and be known as a senator.
00:08:44.000They're afraid that there is something bubbling up and they don't want to play into that.
00:08:51.000Leaning in to the great populist energy that's happening in our country right now, leaning in to the fact that crime is up, that inflation is crushing the backs of people, that our border is wide open, that we have the genital mutilation of children, the chemical castration of kids without parental consent.
00:09:09.000That might actually be too successful.
00:09:12.000So we got to calm it down, lose by a little, raise money for our kind of crony candidates.
00:09:19.000For example, where do you think McConnell is going to be sending money and endorsements like Tim Scott, Lisa Murkowski?
00:09:25.000Murkowski is a perfect example of where the establishment is going to go try to go all in.
00:09:30.000Murkowski will do everything that she's asked of.
00:09:32.000She votes to convict Donald Trump in impeachment.
00:09:35.000She votes for all these silly big spending bills.
00:09:46.000I want your thoughts, freedom, at charliekirk.com.
00:09:48.000Do you think the Republican establishment wants to lose?
00:09:57.000Right now, Bank of America has just lowered its 2022 forecast for the SP 500 by a whopping 900 points to 3,600.
00:10:07.000Saying we're headed for a recession this year, it said the new year target is the lowest on the street.
00:10:12.000This is not good news for those of you stuck in equities or anything tied to stock markets.
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00:11:10.000They don't want the grassroots, people-centered populist movement to be able to achieve victory.
00:11:17.000And ABC News is noticing this, by the way.
00:11:20.000They're noticing that the fundamentals, the framework, the baseline is eerily similar to the period of time that many of you marched in and many of you participated in, the 2010 midterm elections.
00:11:35.000And more concerning for Joe Biden and for Democrats generally is if you look at our latest poll out today, the percentage of voters saying that they will vote for Republicans in the midterm elections is at the highest level that we have seen since 2010.
00:12:17.000The people are ready to show up in big numbers.
00:12:22.000The people are ready to excommunicate the Uniparty from what they've been doing in Washington, D.C. If MAGA does not win this year, the establishment can then do the following.
00:12:36.000They can make the case that Trump should not run in 2024.
00:12:41.000The Republican leadership has far more power now as being a minority leader than they would being a majority leader with an unruly America first caucus.
00:12:55.000They're more powerful if they do not have the dissenters, if they do not have the people that are willing to speak out against the neoliberal agenda.
00:13:07.000Now, 2010 was a mess because the Republican establishment, it wasn't a mess, it was a mess for them, but it was a little disorganized because they didn't really know what was happening.
00:13:15.000There was not a populist uprising like 2010 since the Reagan election of 1980.
00:13:21.000It was 30 years apart where people started to come out of the rivers and they came out of the lakes and Donald Trump replicated that in 2016.
00:13:33.000They don't know how to handle you when you show up in big numbers.
00:13:38.000They would rather have moderate, vanilla, boring type messages to win over suburban voters while they rob the country blind and nothing actually gets fixed.
00:14:41.000Yet this starts to get very hard to manage.
00:14:47.000If you were the Republican establishment and all you really cared about was neoliberalism and propping up Zelensky and pandering to corporate donors, this type of energy, it's not exactly ideal.
00:15:39.000And now they are so worried that the year of 2022 might be a reckoning against all of them, that they might have a caucus of five, six, seven senators that might stand in opposition.
00:15:51.000And it won't just be Mike Lee or Rand Paul or Hawley, but there might be nine of them.
00:15:57.000Whoa, Sit down, citizen, and go back to being a subject.
00:16:08.000Millions of Americans are waking up to a country that they don't recognize.
00:16:11.000And while they struggle to raise their families and pay the bills, the media and corporations are telling them what's wrong with the country.
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00:17:47.000In my personal opinion, someone who's listened to thousands of hours of Rush, he would be warning you that the establishment does not want the America First MAGA movement to be able to be successful because they can't be controlled.
00:17:57.000But kind of what would Rush say aside, of which I can do my best to guess, let's just play right into this.
00:18:16.000I think there's probably a greater likelihood the House flips than the Senate.
00:18:24.000Candidate quality has a lot to do with the outcome.
00:18:28.000Right now, we have a 50-50 Senate in a 50-50 country.
00:18:32.000But I think when all is said and done this fall, we're likely to have an extremely close Senate, either our side up slightly or their side up slightly.
00:19:52.000Okay, we might be divided at the top level.
00:19:54.000I'm telling you, you go talk to the muscular class, the average everyday parent, the plumber, the electrician, and you cast aside their opinions of what they think the Republican Party is, or what they think conservatism is, or what they think Donald Trump is.
00:20:13.000The country is a 70% center-right country.
00:20:16.000And I think we are a 60% hard-right country, especially when it comes down to the issues of children.
00:20:22.000When is the last time you heard a U.S. Senate leader say it's going to be the position of the Republicans in the Senate to say that our children are off limits?
00:20:34.000And again, I say this to candidates, and God bless Blake Masters and JD Vance, they get it and they're talking about it.
00:20:39.000Maybe that's why they've been abandoned by the Republican establishment.
00:20:44.000Why would they talk about these issues?
00:20:46.000Because the Uniparty is funded by the very corporations that are benefiting from the psychiatric prescription of drugs to children, Pfizer, AstraZeneca, Moderna, Johnson Johnson.
00:20:58.000Who do you think is pushing forward the transgender drugs, the chemical castration drugs, the very companies that fund the Uniparty?
00:21:08.000You go back to look at 2010, that kind of energy in a bottle is something that they're going to do.
00:21:15.000They're going to go to great lengths to avoid.
00:22:42.000But the point is that I don't like any of you running the country.
00:22:46.000And the Tea Party did metamorphosize into MAGA, but the Republican establishment is so afraid of you that they very well might be willing to lose a once-in-a-generation opportunity because that will make them less powerful.
00:23:39.000If we had a Republican Party that was willing to message and unify, talk directly to voters, support the good candidates, we would be up in every single poll.
00:23:48.000Now, mind you, I think the House of Representatives will still go Republican.
00:23:52.000I don't think they will be able to keep that genie in the bottle.
00:24:05.000And I've been doing this for only about 10 or 12 years, but around year five or six, I was like, oh, wow, fundamental difference between the House and the Senate.
00:24:12.000Just by volume, the House is so much harder to be able to do the crony deals.
00:25:24.000The Senate, you're talking about multi-million dollar media markets.
00:25:28.000And so therefore, one of the Republican establishment strategies is go recruit a bunch of self-funding candidates that can put in a lot of money early into the race to try to get it out.
00:25:40.000So for example, the Arizona Republican primary was a $40 million race, if you count all super PACs, $40 million.
00:25:50.000Whereas a local Arizona congressional race would be maybe a million to $2 million at the top level.
00:25:56.000So because of that, the U.S. Senate has less people, 100, and there's only 50 Republican senators.
00:26:03.000And out of those, only about 15 of them are in competitive races.
00:26:06.000And only about five of them, the national leadership really focuses on.
00:27:36.000If you're running for the Senate in Arizona and Mark Kelly has $38 million and you have $2 million, that's a very hard obstacle to overcome.
00:27:49.000It seems as if more and more likely that the Republican establishment in the Senate, especially, is saying, boy, we don't want to play into this populist energy.
00:28:38.000They learned the lesson in 16 and in 10, which is when people show up in big numbers with strong messages, grassroots candidates focused on things that actually matter to citizens, things get a little out of control.
00:28:50.000And by the way, when they get out of control, that's a very good thing because they're out of control for the Unit Party.
00:28:54.000But you know what it means when all of a sudden Washington, D.C. says things are out of control?
00:29:21.000That means we have time to say, okay, the establishment will be comfortable losing minorly with their kind of crony Chamber of Commerce corporatist candidates.
00:30:01.000We have a leader that can raise a ton of money.
00:30:04.000Donald Trump has $100 million in his super PAC that can be deployed to help some of these candidates, and I believe will be deployed.
00:30:11.000We could do rallies and get 25,000 people at a moment's notice in Pennsylvania or in Arizona.
00:30:16.000And what needs to happen, though, is there needs to be a recognition and a difference and a splintering between the asset allocation and the strategy of the Republican establishment and of legitimate grassroots candidates that are going to represent voters and represent our citizens.
00:30:33.000Tucker Carlson seems to agree, play cut 102.
00:30:37.000It's entirely possible Mitch McConnell doesn't want to retake the Senate because then you'd have to run things.
00:30:42.000And there's one thing Republican leaders dislike.
00:30:48.000Now, we must remember back to what Adam Kinzinger said earlier this week with the rejection of Liz Cheney.
00:30:53.000He said something that is totally true.
00:30:56.000He said, this is not your dad's Republican Party anymore.
00:31:00.000You see, if they are able to show the MAGA movement does not do well in the midterms, they will then be able to gallivan around the country and say, I told you so.
00:31:14.000They did this in 2012, by the way, with Todd Aiken and Murdoch running in Missouri and Indiana that both said some foolish stuff about abortion that they should not have said.
00:31:24.000But it was also just taken, not out of context.
00:31:27.000That's not totally fair because it was just dumb.
00:31:59.000Adam Kinzinger says that this is no longer your dad's Republican Party, meaning we no longer are able just to have candidates that agree with our endless wars and open borders and corporate deals.
00:33:13.000And this is something that we have to have no mystery about.
00:33:17.000We have to have no, let's just say, no delusions of grandeur as if, oh, yeah, the Republican Party is all on the same page.
00:33:26.000No, there are two simultaneous things at odds happening right now.
00:33:30.000One that is MAGA candidates that are trying their best to get across the finish line.
00:33:34.000And the other one is a, we want to lose by less, still be in control, tell you I told you so, protect our corporate donors, and be in power endlessly and relentlessly.
00:33:50.000We have to show up in such massive numbers, get people to show up, support the good candidates where we can and how we can.
00:33:57.000And then Donald Trump has to come in and get this across the finish line.
00:34:00.000But don't expect the Republican establishment to bail us out at this period of time.
00:34:05.000It is my personal opinion that they're getting comfortable in their position of, well, we might not win, but at least we're still in power.
00:34:18.000Thanks so much for listening, everybody.
00:34:20.000Email me your thoughts as always, freedom at charliekirk.com.