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00:02:41.000He was responding to Chip Roy, who's basically saying, and Thomas Matthews, who are saying that actually the budget outlays are higher under Speaker Johnson than they were under Nancy Pelosi.
00:04:12.000These conservatives are very well aware of the polling.
00:04:14.000Some agree with it, some disagree with it.
00:04:16.000That says that if we shut down the government, that we are putting in serious jeopardy our ability to hold a majority in November when hopefully President Trump gets sworn into office and we can actually do some real damage here.
00:04:44.000Should we try and get concessions on the border on spending and risk what Speaker Johnson's probably thinking about is losing control of the conservatives in the House and potentially losing majority in November?
00:04:57.000Well, look, there are a lot of dumb things the Republicans have done lately that I'm not sure that refusing to spend a ton more money is one of them.
00:05:11.000Yeah, I mean, look, we're in a tough place and it's a place of our own making.
00:05:19.000And when we have, you know, when we have a majority that's so razor-thin, we're not going to get everything we want.
00:05:28.000But, you know, I think we should get some things.
00:05:32.000And I don't think the American people are going to be absolutely upset if we're not spending a ton more money on, you know, frankly, nonsense.
00:05:45.000A lot of what we're spending money on is just ridiculous stuff.
00:05:50.000Yeah, it's going to, you know, look, we've got to get a more substantial majority in the House.
00:05:55.000We have to get a majority in the Senate.
00:05:56.000We have to get President Trump back in.
00:05:59.000But even then, there's going to be another excuse about why we can't possibly cut spending.
00:06:04.000Remember, there are Republicans, Democrats, and appropriators.
00:06:09.000And the appropriators like appropriating.
00:06:13.000The problem is we're spending a trillion dollars every hundred days.
00:06:17.000Now, math is probably great, isn't it?
00:06:20.000Yeah, I mean, math was my worth grade at the University of College.
00:06:27.000But even I know that a trillion dollars every three months is unsustainable.
00:06:33.000Yeah, no, it's and the other slap in the face here is the earmarks.
00:06:36.000I mean, there was like 6,000 earmarks.
00:06:38.000Over 100 of them had Diane Feinstein's name on them.
00:06:46.000And again, Rick Scott, who comes on this show often, said, again, we didn't get visibility on this minibus until basically a couple hours before we were supposed to vote to pass it.
00:06:57.000I mean, the system is absolutely broken.
00:07:01.000But again, I come back to the fact, do you try and slow walk as much out of control insanity as you can between now and November to keep the, I don't know, some semblance of order in place and get that majority and then you execute on your plan?
00:07:21.000I don't understand why we can't get more concessions.
00:07:24.000The fact that a Republican-controlled House is spending more than Nancy Pelosi, even with inflation, even with just built-in increases in budgetary outlays, I don't understand why we can't get more.
00:07:37.000That has constantly been one of the most frustrating aspects of D.C. is why McConnell can't get anything done.
00:07:46.000Why are we constantly getting outmaneuvered and out-negotiated by really mediocre Democrats?
00:10:56.000Now, here's what most people don't know.
00:10:58.000Taking just any magnesium supplement won't solve your problem because most supplements use the cheapest kind that your body can't use or absorb.
00:12:10.000Well, look, this is that's the kind of character why I was proud to support Ron DeSantis.
00:12:16.000He said he was going to support the nominee, and he did.
00:12:20.000I always said I was going to support the nominee, and I did.
00:12:23.000And I, like Ron DeSantis, I am full-throated and unequivocally in support of President Trump because President Trump won the primaries fair and square.
00:12:33.000And I don't understand why Nikki Haley doesn't do it.
00:12:36.000Now, maybe she's waiting to do it on a bigger stage.
00:12:41.000I mean, I could see if he was, you know, talking to the president and they were going to come out together and make a big announcement.
00:12:49.000But I really consider it a character flaw if she fails to keep her word, both expressly because she said she would, and impliedly because she's allegedly a Republican.
00:13:01.000Now, again, she hasn't refused to endorse him.
00:13:06.000And we don't know what phone calls are going on behind the scenes, maybe arranging some joint campaign of hero, which I think would be great and a great show for unity.
00:13:17.000So before we jump on Nikki Haley for that, and I'm always willing to trash Nikki Haley, but not for this, because I want to give her a fair chance to do the right thing.
00:13:27.000But Governor DeSantis is absolutely right.
00:13:29.000Look, we need people who do what they say.
00:13:32.000One of the things I like best about President Trump is with him, it was promises made, promises kept.
00:13:39.000And it's the same with Governor DeSantis.
00:13:45.000He's not backing out on it, weaseling around, trying to do something that's going to allow him to leverage himself in as an MSNBC commentator to replace John Peyton.
00:13:57.000No, you say what you're going to do and then you do it.
00:14:00.000And so I'm hoping Nikki Haley does the right thing.
00:14:04.000Yeah, I mean, Kurt, but what bigger stage would there have been than the morning after national press conference?
00:14:10.000You know, everybody's waiting on bated breath to see if she's going to drop out or not and say, yes, I am dropping out.
00:14:16.000And yes, I am endorsing President Trump.
00:14:19.000This tactic that she's using, yeah, maybe she's going to exert a little leverage to, you know, get her pound of flesh in the process or try and maybe angle for some sort of administration appointment, which I think would really infuriate Trump supporters, to be honest.
00:14:35.000But these people talk about honor and integrity and honesty.
00:14:40.000And then when the chips are down, you know, they have none.
00:14:45.000And so I don't think she's doing herself any long-term favors by drawing this out longer than it should be drawn out.
00:14:51.000Well, again, and I'm now in the weird position of seeming to defend Nikki Haley.
00:14:56.000Let's not presume that the greatest showman in American politics maybe hasn't said, hey, hang on, Nikki.
00:15:04.000You know, let's hold off and we'll do it together and it'll be great.
00:15:28.000For our national audience, Steve Garvey, does he stand a chance, a snowball's chance in, you know what, in California to actually become a U.S. Senator?
00:15:40.000Let's just say, Look, I'm going to proudly vote for Steve Garvey, and I think Steve Garvey is going to help a lot of congressmen by bringing people out because there aren't two Democrats near the top of the ticket.
00:16:37.000We had last month saving babies with pre-born by providing ultrasounds.
00:16:41.000And we're doing again this year what we did last year.
00:16:43.000We're going to stand for life because remaining silent in the face of the most radically pro-death administration is not an option.
00:16:48.000As Sir Edmund Burke said, the only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing, and we're not going to do nothing.
00:16:54.000Your gift to pre-born will give a girl the truth about what's happening in her body so that she can make the right choice.
00:18:24.000And in fact, I mean, Andrew, this year there was something novel that happened in the Republican primary.
00:18:30.000It's been talked about in the past, but it didn't happen in the past the way we saw it happen this cycle.
00:18:36.000And when you're talking about who is a Haley voter, it's made up of a bunch of people who don't want to be bothered with Joe Biden, but they are, in fact, Biden voters.
00:18:44.000It's the resistance of the resistance that even includes those who are registered or toll exit pollsters they're independent or MPA.
00:18:52.000And then the second and smaller part of that coalition is a group of Republicans who wanted a second choice.
00:19:01.000But at the end of the day, the vast majority of them will come home to Donald Trump.
00:19:37.000So the numbers he's posting in general election polling against Biden right now are absolutely consistent with what he's got among Republicans in past elections.
00:19:46.000So again, if you're looking at the primaries and saying, boy, there's all evidence here of Republicans turning on Trump, unwilling to vote for Trump in the fall, you're not seeing it in the general election polling in these Trump numbers.
00:19:59.000And then you take a look at one final thing here.
00:20:02.000This is from the New York Times Sienna poll.
00:20:05.000They asked respondents in their poll, who did you vote for in 2020?
00:20:08.000And are you still with that candidate now?
00:20:11.00097% of folks who said they voted for Trump in 2020 say in this poll they're still with Trump, but only 85% of Joe Biden's 2020 voters say they're with him.
00:20:23.000If you're Joe Biden, how big of a five-alarm fire are you polling right now?
00:20:31.000And by the way, our numbers are very similar to that.
00:20:34.000I was talking to Steve about his poll for NBC that came out a couple of weeks ago.
00:20:39.000That's the same situation they were seeing.
00:20:41.000I mean, everyone maybe got a little, the numbers vary a little bit, Andrew, but for the most part, we had Joe Biden at about 80%, a little bit over 80% of the 2020 vote that he got.
00:20:53.000Some of it goes to someone else, but a huge chunk of it goes to Donald Trump.
00:20:57.000And Donald Trump has almost unified support.
00:21:00.000The New York Times, the poll he was just going over, it was a half a percent of Trump vote who said they would go to Biden.
00:21:06.000Ours is usually a little bit bigger than that, but still statistically insignificant.
00:21:36.000What you're just looking at with Steve Pernanke right there.
00:21:38.000But the reason why that's big is because Joe Biden got, let's, you know, I mean, the official number here, Andrew, Joe Biden got 81 million votes.
00:21:48.000If 10% of them are going to Donald Trump, that's 8.1 million.
00:21:52.000If a half a percent of Donald Trump's votes are going to Joe Biden, it's about 350,000.
00:21:58.000So it's a little over an 8 million vote swing nationally that Joe Biden is losing.
00:22:04.000Ours is usually in the neighborhood of 6.5 million when we're polling.
00:22:20.000So put it in historical terms then for me, Rich.
00:22:23.000You know, I think this is something Charlie talks about a lot when he games out, if you're a Democrat, how you were attacking 2024.
00:22:33.000You were depending on Ron DeSantis having a good showing.
00:22:38.000You were depending on the Republican challengers slowing him down, Donald Trump, even maybe surpassing him and Ron DeSantis was going to be the nominee.
00:25:10.000Remember, back then, Tucker Carlson's still on the air on Fox News.
00:25:15.000We've been tracking the primary since the beginning, and we saw it in real time.
00:25:20.000When he got into trouble with Tucker Carlson over the flip-flop with Ukraine, he gave a very MAGA response first, and then the donors, you know, Ken Griffin called and, you know, complained in his ear and he and he flip-flopped.
00:25:32.000That was when I will say, I'll equate it to this.
00:25:35.000That's when Republican voters kind of like raised their eyebrow.
00:25:37.000Like, wait a minute, maybe this guy isn't MAGA.
00:25:41.000Maybe he's not, you know, all of the good of MAGA without the Trump, the grassness of Trump.
00:25:46.000And then a series of events that happened after just really reinforced to Republican voters why they picked Trump to begin with in 2016, why they went with him to begin with, and then why they stuck with him through his presidency.
00:25:59.000And, you know, I would put Nikki Haley in a different category, as Ron DeSantis.
00:26:46.000So I just, I don't, I can't figure out her calculus of what she's trying to play at here by extending this time of not endorsing Trump unless she's going to lie to us again and she's going to go third party.
00:26:58.000I mean, I have, I can't figure out what her play is here.
00:27:02.000She is like the characterization of an ambitious politician who breaks her word no matter what, does self-serving, makes makes decisions that are self-serving.
00:27:12.000I mean, so I would put nothing past her, but really what you just said is so important.
00:27:16.000And I've been trying to get this point across for weeks and weeks and weeks.
00:27:20.000They will try to come and say, look, my coalition, you'll need me.
00:27:28.000Anyone who's pretending as if her primary performance was this referendum against Trump, that there's a chunk of Republican voters who don't like him and won't come home is either incompetent.
00:29:11.000And I do think that they were trying, they being the, you know, the establishment, the administrative state, the people, the political class that can't stand Donald Trump, can't stand you out there.
00:29:23.000If you're listening, they hate your guts too.
00:29:25.000They're trying to keep their hooks in somehow.
00:31:36.000And they're saying it's the economy, stupid.
00:31:39.000It's basically, you know, they're saying that they're poorer under Bidenomics.
00:31:44.000Is this the great white whale that's never going to fully materialize because the Democrats are just too good at harvesting these votes and getting out low prop?
00:32:49.000So national polls have Trump up anywhere between like 3% to 6%, 7%.
00:32:54.000That means he's winning the popular vote, which Republicans haven't done since what, 2004, Bush's reelection.
00:33:03.000So if you're looking at that, let's say an average of 4% up, once you factor in Democrats' superior get out the vote, funding mechanisms, projects, campaigns, what does that shrink to?
00:33:21.000That's why the model we just did, you know, showing people if it's a popular vote lead of this much, what does that mean for the Battleground States?
00:33:28.000That's why we did a Trump roughly plus two, because Democrats are very good at getting their votes, you know, counted, Andrew.
00:33:36.000And Republicans, as you know, well, full aware.
00:33:39.000I mean, there are efforts, but it's up in the air.
00:34:20.000Thanks so much for listening, everybody.
00:34:21.000If you love this show as much as I do, well, maybe, maybe even more.
00:34:25.000Maybe you love it more than I do, which is saying something.
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