00:00:07.000The early voting numbers are in striking distance.
00:00:09.000If every American listening to this podcast right now shows up, votes, get your friends, families, and everyone in your social circle to do the same, President Donald Trump gets re-elected as President of the United States.
00:00:21.000Post on social media, text your friends.
00:00:25.000We have done our job laying the groundwork in the framework.
00:00:28.000President Trump is in the margin of error.
00:00:30.000If we show up in record numbers in a way that the activist media never could imagine, President Donald Trump will win four more years.
00:00:38.000Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, Amy Coney Barrett, 300 federal judges finally getting serious about child sex trafficking, repealing the Iran deal, the embassy in Jerusalem, Golan Heights recognized the best economy in American history, the largest middle-class tax cut, Solomoni dead, Al-Baghdadi dead.
00:00:55.000Peace between Israel, Sudan, Bahrain, and the UAE.
00:00:59.000The border wall is finally being built on the southern border, and so much more.
00:01:04.000President Donald Trump is worthy of your vote and your support.
00:01:08.000I have a conversation about this with John Solomon where we go through some Senate races and some House races.
00:02:11.000His spirit, his love of this country, he's done an amazing job building one of the most powerful youth organizations ever created, Turning Point USA.
00:02:19.000We will not embrace the ideas that have destroyed countries, destroyed lives, and we are going to fight for freedom on campuses across the country.
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00:04:35.000And so, because we've been doing these rallies, we've been doing a lot outside of the campaign at Turning Point Action, just trying to fill in the pieces where we think the campaign doesn't have the coverage to do everything.
00:04:47.000And we have been seeing so many stories, John, of people that come up to us and they say, I was a Democrat, now I'm a Trump supporter, and I didn't vote in 2016.
00:04:55.000And when you hear that a couple thousand times, you wonder if that's if that are you is it as confirmation bias?
00:05:01.000Are you seeing something that you want to see?
00:05:03.000Or could it actually mean that the pollsters are missing something?
00:05:07.000And then all of a sudden, you're starting to see the polls now correlate.
00:05:10.000Three out of the last four polls in Pennsylvania show President Trump up in Pennsylvania.
00:05:14.000Early voting numbers in every state, Florida, North Carolina, Texas, Georgia, Ohio, are favorable to the president versus 2016.
00:05:23.000So, look, the president could win, the president could lose, but I reject this kind of Nate Silver way of approaching it where he says 90% chance I wouldn't handicap the odds like that.
00:05:34.000I think it's a coin toss, and I think it's a turnout game on election day.
00:05:39.000And I think anyone who thinks it's a 90% likelihood is not taking a really serious look at it.
00:05:45.000The late energy, when you look at these rallies and you look at not only the size and the energy of the rally, but the makeup of the rally, you see lots of Hispanics, lots of African Americans.
00:05:55.000I see a lot of young people, which we keep being told young people are just breaking from the Republican Party.
00:06:01.000It seems as though a very eclectic coalition has come together and got energized by the president's last run of campaign rallies.
00:06:26.000And neither do Hispanics or blacks who own a lot of small businesses and they're first-time first-generation business owners, a very important distinction, where they've put their entire intergenerational wealth into a laundromat or a restaurant or into just a corner shop.
00:06:43.000And they can't survive another couple months of shutting the country down.
00:06:46.000And if you have seen, you've seen, John, as the president has been on the right side on the lockdown issue, his numbers of independents, women, Hispanics, and blacks have improved.
00:06:57.000The second, that issue, I think, has actually really benefited him.
00:07:01.000Yeah, no, it's going to be interesting because that'll be one place where the pollsters will have had it totally wrong, right?
00:07:06.000Because they keep saying the president's weakness is COVID.
00:07:09.000And I think we're going to find out, there's a strong possibility we're going to find out that that isn't the case.
00:07:14.000When you look at the other issues that are resonating, and every election turns down to a singular question at the end of the day, it seems in the last couple of weeks in the polling data I'm seeing that the question that Americans are going to decide this election on is which America do you want to live in?
00:07:30.000Do you want to live in the locked down socialist trending, violent anarchist ways of what we see in Philadelphia, Portland, Chicago?
00:07:39.000Or do you want to live in the prosperous ways that we had just before COVID struck?
00:07:42.000Do you think that that is the message going in?
00:07:45.000And that's the question upon which voters are going to make their decision tomorrow.
00:07:49.000And I also think that for the 8% to 10% of people that are undecided, which is an incredibly high number, we have to understand that's hundreds of thousands of human beings in the battleground states.
00:08:00.000If you don't hate Trump by now, then you're waiting for a Trump, you're waiting for a reason to vote for Trump.
00:08:06.000If by after all of the deluge of misinformation and just bad reporting towards the president, you're still not in the category of anti-Trump, then you're waiting to break in that direction.
00:08:17.000You just might not like his style and you might not like some things that he tweets.
00:08:21.000But the president has been on message.
00:09:16.000He's challenging a singular point of view that you must shut down your country.
00:09:23.000We must now go back the ways of France, Germany, and the United Kingdom where we lock everything down.
00:09:27.000We must go do what Charlie Baker is doing in Massachusetts, where he says, if you leave your home between 10 p.m. and 5 a.m., just announced, you're in violation of state orders.
00:10:02.000And every week that goes by, and all of a sudden you start to see the mortgage payments are due again.
00:10:09.000And you start to see that, you know, the credit card bills are coming.
00:10:12.000And you think to myself, maybe I'm going to vote for the guy who I think's a jerk, but he'll get us back to rising wages and our country being open.
00:10:27.000There's not really been a negative story where the president's had to play defense in the last two weeks.
00:10:31.000You have the Hunter-Biden FBI investigation, 33.1% GDP growth, Lil Wayne endorsing President Trump, or at least saying very positive things about President Trump.
00:10:42.000The president has really had like two weeks of uninterrupted time to pitch the American people.
00:10:48.000And Biden doesn't have any, he's not countering it.
00:10:51.000He's just saying, time to pack your bags, Trump.
00:10:55.000Are you going to say anything new or exciting that will get people to your column?
00:10:58.000Yeah, it's absolutely fascinating to watch the last two weeks of the race.
00:11:02.000I don't think I've ever, and I've covered every race since 84.
00:11:05.000I don't think I've seen a candidate play it as safe as Joe Biden ever in the history of presidential politicians.
00:11:11.000I mean, there's a real danger that if people interpret that playing it safe as disinterested, overconfident, or simply he's given up, that's going to weigh against him heavily on election day.
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00:12:25.000What are the states you're looking to watch tomorrow?
00:12:27.000I mean, where is your eye going to be laser focused on?
00:12:30.000Well, I have about 15 or 20 counties that I'll be focused on because we've been doing work in those counties.
00:12:34.000We've been up with advertisement and turning with our 501c4 turning point action.
00:12:38.000And so we're going to really be looking at a couple counties.
00:12:41.000I'll be first and foremost super interested in Mahonic County, which is eastern Ohio.
00:12:46.000I think the president will win Ohio, but I think this is a bellwether.
00:12:49.000If the president shows he's doing better in that county than he did in 2016, I think he's going to win everything.
00:12:55.000If he's doing worse, then we're going to have, I think he'll have a more difficult road.
00:12:59.000But the areas that I'm going to be most interested even more are the urban areas.
00:13:03.000I think that the pathway for Trump is: can he do a little bit better with blacks, do better with Hispanics, and how many are actually going to turn out.
00:13:11.000And if I was a Democrat strategist, I'd be very worried at the lower voter turnout we've seen out of the urban centers.
00:13:17.000The only exception is the vote by mail in Philadelphia.
00:13:20.000That's the only place they've done better.
00:13:22.000But those are high-propensity voters and newly registered voters, which are most likely to vote.
00:13:26.000Are we going to see 08 or 2012-style turnout in Philadelphia like we did when Obama ran, where they had lines all the way to New Jersey?
00:13:37.000And the riots and the looting in Philadelphia do not help Joe Biden at all.
00:13:41.000Yeah, it's going to have a backlash, not to mention the blue-collar workers in Philadelphia.
00:13:45.000They love President Trump, the police officers, their families, the kind of middle-class work ethic of kind of suburban, almost suburban-urban Philadelphia, I think is really going to benefit the president.
00:13:56.000And then the president then has to run up the score in rural Pennsylvania.
00:13:59.000He has to outdo his numbers in Oil City, in Montoursville, in Erie, Pennsylvania.
00:14:18.000Then I'm going to look in Florida for Miami-Dade County in particular, and then Collier County, which is very, very Republican and a lot of seniors.
00:14:26.000I think the president carries Florida.
00:14:28.000I think he's going to do it in convincing fashion, which means you win by one point.
00:15:42.000And I think all the energy and all the time that the president has spent there the last couple of weeks, of course, Joe Biden has showed up a few times now too, tells you that that state is clearly in play and probably the one that we'll be hanging on to and maybe even going to court to look at.
00:15:59.000When you look at young voters, obviously you've created one of the great youth movements in America.
00:16:03.000I want to say youth, young adult movements in America.
00:16:07.000Where do you think millennials come out of this election?
00:16:13.000They seem to be steadily in the blue corner, which means 10 years from now, 20 years from now, there could be a big change.
00:16:19.000Are you seeing any dynamic changes in that?
00:16:22.000And are there changes like among young African Americans?
00:16:25.000One of the things I'm seeing in our polling data is that young African Americans are becoming more Republican, more Trump than either their parents or their grandparents.
00:16:42.000I think that the president will do better amongst younger voters that are starting to try to build a life and actually are starting to see a lot of the financial costs of living outside of just a college bubble.
00:16:55.000I think the president is going to actually win 18 to 22-year-olds in certain states.
00:17:00.000I think the president's going to do really well with younger voters in Wisconsin, in Ohio, and in some of the southern states.
00:17:07.000The reason is this, is that some of these college campuses are completely closed.
00:17:11.000Voter registration is down 94% at Ohio State University.
00:17:15.000Typically, a Democrat can count on 7,000 to 10,000 votes from Michigan State University no matter what.
00:17:36.000That's completely off the table through Zoom class and kind of shutting down campuses.
00:17:41.000However, I'll say this: the conservatives, no matter where they are, the young conservatives, they will vote.
00:17:46.000And we are starting to see data that young conservatives are way more enthused to turn out.
00:17:52.000They're less likely to publicly profess or proclaim their support.
00:17:56.000And I think a lot of the pollsters are going to be very surprised when they start to see some of these college districts be a lot more competitive for the president.
00:18:03.000Again, I'm not a guy who's going to say that Trump's going to win the youth vote.
00:18:06.000I think that they'll naturally get more conservative as they get older.
00:18:11.000I think that President Trump might actually win Hispanics in Florida, Texas, and Arizona.
00:18:16.000You're starting to see record movement, especially with 30 to 45-year-old Hispanics that are very much invested in the American way of life.
00:18:25.000And what do you think it is that has made him suddenly resonate with this constituency?
00:18:32.000We see it in a couple of places, but we see it in younger African Americans and under the age of 40.
00:18:38.000And we're seeing it in Hispanics, particularly middle-aged Hispanics, men and women.
00:18:42.000What do you think are the sudden synergy points?
00:18:45.000And what does this mean for the Republican Party long term?
00:18:48.000Yeah, I'll start with the black community.
00:18:50.000At Turning Point USA, we really did a lot the last couple of years to try and draw attention to kind of this black exodus from liberal thinking.
00:19:00.000And Candace Owens has done a lot on this.
00:19:02.000Brandon Tatum, they were on the cutting edge of this.
00:19:05.000And you're starting to actually see that this is turning into a real thing.
00:19:09.000This is not just conservative popcorn.
00:19:23.000He's unafraid to continue to ask for black Americans to support him despite all the names that President Trump has called.
00:19:31.000One of my favorite storylines of this election, if it proves to be true, what I think is going to happen is that white liberals don't vote for Trump because they think he's a racist, but black Americans get him reelected.
00:19:43.000I just, I can't wait to, I don't know if that's going to happen.
00:19:46.000A lot of the data is trending that way.
00:19:49.000But if black Americans even vote for Trump in 10 to 15%, it's a win for President Trump.
00:19:58.000And I will say this: with young, with younger Hispanics and younger blacks, I think that they believe the overly the over-dogmatic positioning of the Democrat Party, where it's you're not a black person if you don't support Democrat policies.
00:21:01.000That's how significant the shift could be.
00:21:03.000When you look at the Senate races, House races, anything that you're looking for in the bellwether races here, it looks like Joni Ernst is going to be safe in Iowa.
00:21:10.000You're going to pick up, the Republicans are going to pick up Alabama.
00:22:00.000I like those the most because all the national money has been, and this is, if he wins, it will be the ultimate overconfidence of political strategy I've ever seen.
00:22:10.000They've pumped $80 million to try to defeat Lindsey Graham.
00:23:51.000I don't know if he's going to be able to pull it off.
00:23:54.000Yeah, the Michigan Senate race, exactly.
00:23:56.000Yeah, he's been in striking distance, which makes it really interesting.
00:23:58.000Yeah, and for suburban voters that don't like Trump, I would think that's kind of a safe haven, right?
00:24:03.000For suburban center-right people that don't like Trump's tone and they want to return to normalcy, I would hope that at least they would go vote for John James.
00:24:12.000And President Trump going to Grand Rapids tonight is going to help John James significantly.
00:24:16.000So look, if Republicans can hold one out of the four, I think they hold the Senate.
00:24:24.000She looks like she's surging at the right time.
00:24:27.000So if Republicans can just win one out of Colorado, Arizona, North Carolina, Maine, the least likely is Colorado, then Arizona, then Maine, North Carolina, the Senate, I think, will stay in Republican hands.
00:24:38.000If I can talk about a couple of house races really quick, John.
00:24:40.000Please do, because we got those 30 Trump districts that could go one way or the other.
00:24:44.000So one of them is Genevieve Collins in Dallas.
00:26:35.000And it probably speaks volumes to the extraordinary door that Trump has opened to the African-American community, to all these cities that have been under Democratic rule for 40, 50, 60 years.
00:27:57.000Where do you think the Democrats, is there any one place where you think the Democrats are going to surprise people?
00:28:01.000Do you have any sleepers surprises for the Democrats?
00:28:04.000Yeah, they've definitely put a lot of money into those Senate races I mentioned.
00:28:08.000I think that Mitch McConnell's done a great job of normalizing those races.
00:28:11.000I think the Amy Coney Barrett fight was kind of like a $1 billion in-kind contribution to at-risk senators because it gave them something to get in the local and statewide news, all the newspapers to show what they're doing.
00:28:41.000They could surprise us all where all these early voting Republicans, it could be that only 82% of those are voting for Trump.
00:28:47.000It could be that some of these older Republicans are voting for Biden, that it's because his handling of the virus or his tone and all of the early voting advantage that we think we have, we really don't.
00:29:00.000I don't see any polling to reflect this.
00:29:02.000I see no anecdotal evidence to reflect this.
00:29:04.000And the radicalism of the Democrat Party does not make this argument more likely.
00:29:09.000The more they've embraced BLM and Antifa, the stronger Trump's hold on the Republican Party has been.
00:29:14.000And we don't see this in any sort of metrics, but there could be a hidden Biden vote, and I don't dismiss it.
00:29:20.000If Biden wins, it'll be that just like there was a hidden Trump vote in 2016, there were people in Trump districts that hated Trump and they came out in big numbers to go vote.
00:29:48.000And I think the president, the last two weeks, the reason why he took that Des Moines register poll from 47 and 47% in September to now 47 to 41 and leading with independence is his message has been so good the last two to three weeks.
00:30:00.000And his final debate performance was everything that anxious suburban Republicans needed to go confidently say, okay, I got it.
00:30:13.000And that's why I think you're starting to see that kind of separation speed.
00:30:17.000But it very well could be that Democrats surprise us and may have a suburban surge, the likes of which we've never seen.
00:30:23.000If suburban voters show up to 85, 90% turnout, which I think is unlikely, and Biden wins 70% of them, it doesn't matter how many rural voters we have.
00:30:51.000No matter who wins, who makes the first step at going and calming this country down and getting us to think more about the we in America, not the us and them in America.
00:31:00.000That's got to be the next president, whether it's Trump or Biden.
00:31:03.000Got to be one of their top agenda items.
00:31:06.000And if President Trump wins, I think that you'll see an explosion of rebellion, and then I think it'll fizzle out.
00:31:14.000I think that it'll fizzle out after a couple of weeks when people realize there's not an election with his name on it, and we lost and he won.
00:31:39.000I mean, that's just, that's how we operate.
00:31:41.000That's not, unfortunately, how they do.
00:31:43.000And then, yeah, if Joe Biden wins, my wish is if Joe Biden wins, I hope he actually governs like the person he's telling us he is, which we know he isn't.
00:31:59.000I don't think his chances of winning are what other people say, but if he actually is a center-right candidate who will allow us to still be energy independent, not go after fracking, which, by the way, he says the opposite a couple months ago.
00:32:30.000We have economic numbers that are responding and rebounding.
00:32:35.000And I hope that the courts don't get politicized.
00:32:37.000I hope that D.C. and Puerto Rico don't get be made as federal states.
00:32:41.000I hope that liberal states don't get blanketly bailed out from the bankruptcy.
00:32:46.000Obviously, I know what president is going to prevent all those things from happening, and we already have him as president.
00:32:52.000But yeah, I think that the president has to then win and then take us through a healing moment because this year has been unpredictable and turbulent at best.