The Charlie Kirk Show - November 03, 2020


Election 2020: State By State, Race By Race with John Solomon


Episode Stats


Length

33 minutes

Words per minute

202.53326

Word count

6,849

Sentence count

540

Harmful content

Misogyny

11

sentences flagged

Toxicity

8

sentences flagged

Hate speech

20

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

It's election day and it's time to turn out the vote. President Donald Trump is worthy of your vote and your support. I have a conversation with John Solomon about the midterms and why he thinks Trump will win re-election.

Transcript

Transcripts from "The Charlie Kirk Show" are sourced from the Knowledge Fight Interactive Search Tool. Explore them interactively here.
Misogyny classifications generated with MilaNLProc/bert-base-uncased-ear-misogyny .
Toxicity classifications generated with s-nlp/roberta_toxicity_classifier .
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
00:00:00.000 Hey, everybody, it's election day.
00:00:02.000 My final election prediction is this.
00:00:04.000 If we show up, we win.
00:00:07.000 The early voting numbers are in striking distance.
00:00:09.000 If every American listening to this podcast right now shows up, votes, get your friends, families, and everyone in your social circle to do the same, President Donald Trump gets re-elected as President of the United States.
00:00:21.000 Post on social media, text your friends.
00:00:23.000 It's now a turnout game.
00:00:25.000 We have done our job laying the groundwork in the framework.
00:00:28.000 President Trump is in the margin of error.
00:00:30.000 If we show up in record numbers in a way that the activist media never could imagine, President Donald Trump will win four more years.
00:00:38.000 Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, Amy Coney Barrett, 300 federal judges finally getting serious about child sex trafficking, repealing the Iran deal, the embassy in Jerusalem, Golan Heights recognized the best economy in American history, the largest middle-class tax cut, Solomoni dead, Al-Baghdadi dead.
00:00:55.000 Peace between Israel, Sudan, Bahrain, and the UAE.
00:00:59.000 The border wall is finally being built on the southern border, and so much more.
00:01:04.000 President Donald Trump is worthy of your vote and your support.
00:01:08.000 I have a conversation about this with John Solomon where we go through some Senate races and some House races.
00:01:12.000 All this is changing very quickly.
00:01:14.000 And as this episode drops, it's Election Day.
00:01:16.000 So do something about saving our Republic, everybody.
00:01:19.000 A lot of you email me, freedom at charliekirk.com, your comments, your feedback, and your questions.
00:01:25.000 And some of you say, what can I do?
00:01:26.000 Well, here's what you can do today.
00:01:29.000 You go vote, fill in a couple bubbles that have the letter R next to them, and get your friends to go do the same.
00:01:36.000 It does matter.
00:01:37.000 Be loud and be proud of your advocacy for the president.
00:01:40.000 And I pray that we will win the night of which this episode actually drops.
00:01:45.000 So here's my conversation with the great John Solomon about this.
00:01:48.000 Please consider supporting us at charliekirk.com slash support.
00:01:51.000 CharlieKirk.com slash support.
00:01:53.000 John Solomon is here.
00:01:55.000 We have a great conversation.
00:01:56.000 Buckle up, everybody.
00:01:57.000 Here we go.
00:01:58.000 Charlie, what you've done is incredible here.
00:02:00.000 Maybe Charlie Kirk is on the college campuses.
00:02:02.000 I want you to know we are lucky to have Charlie Kirk.
00:02:05.000 Charlie Kirk's running the White House, folks.
00:02:09.000 I want to thank Charlie.
00:02:10.000 He's an incredible guy.
00:02:11.000 His spirit, his love of this country, he's done an amazing job building one of the most powerful youth organizations ever created, Turning Point USA.
00:02:19.000 We will not embrace the ideas that have destroyed countries, destroyed lives, and we are going to fight for freedom on campuses across the country.
00:02:28.000 That's why we are here.
00:02:31.000 You guys have heard me talk about Good Ranchers before.
00:02:33.000 They're unbelievable.
00:02:34.000 They're the best.
00:02:35.000 You guys want to get meat in a box from all across this beautiful country?
00:02:39.000 It's goodranchers.com.
00:02:40.000 They bring 100% American-born, raised, and harvested meat to families across America.
00:02:45.000 This vision was instilled into them from their grandparents that owned community grocery stores and believed in trust, charity, and family values.
00:02:52.000 Goodranchers.com partners directly with only American ranches from across the United States to bring the highest quality meat right to your door.
00:02:58.000 Goodranchers.com, goodrancheurs.com gets 100% American-raised beef right to your door, beefed the way it used to be.
00:03:05.000 Get America's best grass-fed beef delivered straight to your door.
00:03:08.000 Don't forget shipping is always free and the taste is always delicious.
00:03:11.000 Don't waste your money on cheap cuts or overseas beef buying from other guys.
00:03:14.000 Get the best American beef cuts your family deserves with good ranchers.
00:03:18.000 Buy today at goodranchers.com.
00:03:20.000 Promo code Charlie, C-H-A-R-L-I-E, goodranchers.com, promo code Charlie.
00:03:27.000 So you've been out in the trail a lot.
00:03:28.000 I know you've been doing a lot of work for the president and his campaign and getting out and talking to people.
00:03:33.000 Where do you think America stands at this 24 hours out before election day?
00:03:37.000 Yeah, I'm not going to make any big bold predictions like some people say that Trump's going to win with 330 electoral votes.
00:03:44.000 Some people say Trump's going to lose to Biden with 330 electoral votes.
00:03:48.000 I see lots of different pieces of data, and I'll also pair that with what we're seeing on the ground.
00:03:53.000 President Trump's done very well with early voting across the country.
00:03:57.000 The late surge of voter registration numbers in the states that matter is very positive for the president.
00:04:02.000 And also, that Des Moines register poll over the weekend, that should be a fire alarm for Democrats.
00:04:07.000 I mean, Biden hitting a ceiling of 41% Trump opening a seven-point lead and breaking with independents.
00:04:13.000 I was on the phone with a really good friend of mine who's run national campaigns.
00:04:17.000 I won't say his name, but you would know who it is.
00:04:20.000 And we were both chatting on Saturday, two hours before the Des Moines Register poll, and we both said, We're seeing it in the ground.
00:04:26.000 When are we going to see it in the data?
00:04:27.000 Because polling is always not a leading indicator, it's a lagging indicator, which is a week behind.
00:04:34.000 Oh, yeah, it's about a week behind.
00:04:35.000 And so, because we've been doing these rallies, we've been doing a lot outside of the campaign at Turning Point Action, just trying to fill in the pieces where we think the campaign doesn't have the coverage to do everything.
00:04:47.000 And we have been seeing so many stories, John, of people that come up to us and they say, I was a Democrat, now I'm a Trump supporter, and I didn't vote in 2016.
00:04:55.000 And when you hear that a couple thousand times, you wonder if that's if that are you is it as confirmation bias?
00:05:01.000 Are you seeing something that you want to see?
00:05:03.000 Or could it actually mean that the pollsters are missing something?
00:05:07.000 And then all of a sudden, you're starting to see the polls now correlate.
00:05:10.000 Three out of the last four polls in Pennsylvania show President Trump up in Pennsylvania.
00:05:14.000 Early voting numbers in every state, Florida, North Carolina, Texas, Georgia, Ohio, are favorable to the president versus 2016.
00:05:23.000 So, look, the president could win, the president could lose, but I reject this kind of Nate Silver way of approaching it where he says 90% chance I wouldn't handicap the odds like that.
00:05:34.000 I think it's a coin toss, and I think it's a turnout game on election day.
00:05:38.000 Yeah, I think you're exactly right.
00:05:39.000 And I think anyone who thinks it's a 90% likelihood is not taking a really serious look at it.
00:05:45.000 The late energy, when you look at these rallies and you look at not only the size and the energy of the rally, but the makeup of the rally, you see lots of Hispanics, lots of African Americans.
00:05:55.000 I see a lot of young people, which we keep being told young people are just breaking from the Republican Party.
00:06:01.000 It seems as though a very eclectic coalition has come together and got energized by the president's last run of campaign rallies.
00:06:09.000 Are you seeing the same thing?
00:06:10.000 Totally.
00:06:11.000 And for good reason, the president is on the right side of these lockdowns.
00:06:15.000 The lockdowns have really hurt American families.
00:06:18.000 And I think the Democrats have completely misanalyzed this.
00:06:22.000 Young people don't want their country locked down for another nine months.
00:06:24.000 They can't survive that. 0.94
00:06:26.000 And neither do Hispanics or blacks who own a lot of small businesses and they're first-time first-generation business owners, a very important distinction, where they've put their entire intergenerational wealth into a laundromat or a restaurant or into just a corner shop. 1.00
00:06:43.000 And they can't survive another couple months of shutting the country down. 0.98
00:06:46.000 And if you have seen, you've seen, John, as the president has been on the right side on the lockdown issue, his numbers of independents, women, Hispanics, and blacks have improved.
00:06:57.000 The second, that issue, I think, has actually really benefited him.
00:07:01.000 Yeah, no, it's going to be interesting because that'll be one place where the pollsters will have had it totally wrong, right?
00:07:06.000 Because they keep saying the president's weakness is COVID.
00:07:09.000 And I think we're going to find out, there's a strong possibility we're going to find out that that isn't the case.
00:07:14.000 When you look at the other issues that are resonating, and every election turns down to a singular question at the end of the day, it seems in the last couple of weeks in the polling data I'm seeing that the question that Americans are going to decide this election on is which America do you want to live in?
00:07:30.000 Do you want to live in the locked down socialist trending, violent anarchist ways of what we see in Philadelphia, Portland, Chicago?
00:07:39.000 Or do you want to live in the prosperous ways that we had just before COVID struck?
00:07:42.000 Do you think that that is the message going in?
00:07:45.000 And that's the question upon which voters are going to make their decision tomorrow.
00:07:49.000 Yeah.
00:07:49.000 And I also think that for the 8% to 10% of people that are undecided, which is an incredibly high number, we have to understand that's hundreds of thousands of human beings in the battleground states.
00:08:00.000 If you don't hate Trump by now, then you're waiting for a Trump, you're waiting for a reason to vote for Trump.
00:08:05.000 That's what I'm going to say.
00:08:06.000 If by after all of the deluge of misinformation and just bad reporting towards the president, you're still not in the category of anti-Trump, then you're waiting to break in that direction.
00:08:17.000 You just might not like his style and you might not like some things that he tweets.
00:08:21.000 But the president has been on message.
00:08:23.000 His rallies have been phenomenal.
00:08:25.000 He keeps on saying a similar message, which is, I'm going to protect the American dream.
00:08:29.000 Let's get back to our normal way of life.
00:08:31.000 Our country can be great again.
00:08:33.000 And in a very interesting turn of events, he's almost saying the same thing he said in 2016 because of the lockdowns.
00:08:39.000 He's not really running on an incumbent message.
00:08:42.000 He's kind of running as a challenger message because of all of the very unpredictable nature of the last six to nine months.
00:08:50.000 It's really noticeable.
00:08:51.000 Yeah.
00:08:52.000 He's like challenging the status quo.
00:08:54.000 And I think to myself, you're flying on Air Force One challenging the status quo.
00:08:58.000 And again, if the media had any sort of integrity outside of your wonderful website, that's just an interesting story to cover.
00:09:04.000 Regardless if you love or hate him, is that the president is running as if he's challenging the incumbent, which he kind of is.
00:09:11.000 He's challenging a predominant viewpoint, right?
00:09:14.000 So he's challenging an orthodoxy.
00:09:16.000 He's challenging a singular point of view that you must shut down your country.
00:09:23.000 We must now go back the ways of France, Germany, and the United Kingdom where we lock everything down.
00:09:27.000 We must go do what Charlie Baker is doing in Massachusetts, where he says, if you leave your home between 10 p.m. and 5 a.m., just announced, you're in violation of state orders.
00:09:35.000 America does not want that.
00:09:36.000 We know how this virus operates.
00:09:38.000 We know who's at risk.
00:09:38.000 We know what we have to do to help them.
00:09:40.000 Death rates and hospitalization rates are down.
00:09:42.000 Cases are up because we have more testing and cases.
00:09:44.000 I think is a completely irrelevant statistic.
00:09:47.000 And people want their life back.
00:09:49.000 They want their schools open, their economy open.
00:09:51.000 And I think there is an understatement.
00:09:54.000 And the polling shows this.
00:09:55.000 The polling shows that even people who don't like Trump know he's better on the economy.
00:10:01.000 They know that.
00:10:02.000 And every week that goes by, and all of a sudden you start to see the mortgage payments are due again.
00:10:09.000 And you start to see that, you know, the credit card bills are coming. 0.97
00:10:12.000 And you think to myself, maybe I'm going to vote for the guy who I think's a jerk, but he'll get us back to rising wages and our country being open. 0.97
00:10:20.000 Don't discount that, especially. 0.97
00:10:22.000 And this is a really awesome thing, a really interesting point, I should say.
00:10:25.000 The president has been on offense.
00:10:27.000 There's not really been a negative story where the president's had to play defense in the last two weeks.
00:10:31.000 You have the Hunter-Biden FBI investigation, 33.1% GDP growth, Lil Wayne endorsing President Trump, or at least saying very positive things about President Trump.
00:10:42.000 The president has really had like two weeks of uninterrupted time to pitch the American people.
00:10:48.000 And Biden doesn't have any, he's not countering it.
00:10:51.000 He's just saying, time to pack your bags, Trump.
00:10:54.000 Like we got that point.
00:10:54.000 Okay.
00:10:55.000 Are you going to say anything new or exciting that will get people to your column?
00:10:58.000 Yeah, it's absolutely fascinating to watch the last two weeks of the race.
00:11:02.000 I don't think I've ever, and I've covered every race since 84.
00:11:05.000 I don't think I've seen a candidate play it as safe as Joe Biden ever in the history of presidential politicians.
00:11:11.000 I mean, there's a real danger that if people interpret that playing it safe as disinterested, overconfident, or simply he's given up, that's going to weigh against him heavily on election day.
00:11:27.000 When running a business, HR issues can kill you.
00:11:30.000 Wrongful termination suits, minimum wage requirements, labor regulations, and more.
00:11:34.000 And HR manager salaries are never cheap.
00:11:36.000 They're an average of $70,000 a year.
00:11:39.000 Bambi, spelled B-A-M-B-E-E, was created specifically for small business.
00:11:43.000 You can get a dedicated HR manager, craft HR policy, and maintain your compliance all for just $99 a month.
00:11:49.000 With Bambi, you change HR from your biggest liability to your biggest strength.
00:11:54.000 Your dedicated HR managers are available by phone, email, or real-time chat.
00:11:57.000 From onboarding interminations, they customize your policies to fit your business and they help you manage your employees day to day, all for just $99 a month.
00:12:05.000 Month to month, there are no hidden fees.
00:12:06.000 Cancel anytime.
00:12:07.000 You didn't start your business because you wanted to spend time in HR compliance.
00:12:11.000 Let Bambi help get your free HR audit today.
00:12:13.000 Go to bambi.com/slash kirk right now to schedule your free HR audit.
00:12:17.000 That's bambi.com/slash kirk.
00:12:19.000 Spell b am to the b-e-e.com/slash kirk.
00:12:25.000 What are the states you're looking to watch tomorrow?
00:12:27.000 I mean, where is your eye going to be laser focused on?
00:12:30.000 Well, I have about 15 or 20 counties that I'll be focused on because we've been doing work in those counties.
00:12:34.000 We've been up with advertisement and turning with our 501c4 turning point action.
00:12:38.000 And so we're going to really be looking at a couple counties.
00:12:41.000 I'll be first and foremost super interested in Mahonic County, which is eastern Ohio.
00:12:46.000 I think the president will win Ohio, but I think this is a bellwether.
00:12:49.000 If the president shows he's doing better in that county than he did in 2016, I think he's going to win everything.
00:12:55.000 If he's doing worse, then we're going to have, I think he'll have a more difficult road.
00:12:59.000 But the areas that I'm going to be most interested even more are the urban areas. 0.61
00:13:03.000 I think that the pathway for Trump is: can he do a little bit better with blacks, do better with Hispanics, and how many are actually going to turn out.
00:13:11.000 And if I was a Democrat strategist, I'd be very worried at the lower voter turnout we've seen out of the urban centers.
00:13:17.000 The only exception is the vote by mail in Philadelphia.
00:13:20.000 That's the only place they've done better.
00:13:22.000 But those are high-propensity voters and newly registered voters, which are most likely to vote.
00:13:26.000 Are we going to see 08 or 2012-style turnout in Philadelphia like we did when Obama ran, where they had lines all the way to New Jersey?
00:13:33.000 Probably not.
00:13:34.000 I don't feel that excitement.
00:13:36.000 I don't see that excitement.
00:13:37.000 And the riots and the looting in Philadelphia do not help Joe Biden at all.
00:13:41.000 Yeah, it's going to have a backlash, not to mention the blue-collar workers in Philadelphia.
00:13:45.000 They love President Trump, the police officers, their families, the kind of middle-class work ethic of kind of suburban, almost suburban-urban Philadelphia, I think is really going to benefit the president.
00:13:56.000 And then the president then has to run up the score in rural Pennsylvania.
00:13:59.000 He has to outdo his numbers in Oil City, in Montoursville, in Erie, Pennsylvania.
00:14:05.000 I'm going to be looking at.
00:14:06.000 And then I'll be very interested.
00:14:08.000 Scranton, Pennsylvania.
00:14:09.000 President Trump almost won Scranton back in 2016.
00:14:12.000 Is there going to be kind of a hometown homecoming for Joe Biden who hasn't been there in 65 years?
00:14:18.000 We'll see.
00:14:18.000 Then I'm going to look in Florida for Miami-Dade County in particular, and then Collier County, which is very, very Republican and a lot of seniors.
00:14:26.000 I think the president carries Florida.
00:14:28.000 I think he's going to do it in convincing fashion, which means you win by one point.
00:14:31.000 That's a blowout in Florida.
00:14:32.000 Yeah, in Florida, that is a blowout.
00:14:34.000 And then I'll be interested.
00:14:35.000 And then I'll be very interested.
00:14:36.000 I mean, I care a lot about Arizona.
00:14:40.000 We're headquartered there.
00:14:41.000 We've spent a bunch of money and time there.
00:14:43.000 Maricopa County will determine the entire state.
00:14:46.000 If the president can win independence and run up the score with Republicans, he's going to win the state of Arizona.
00:14:50.000 He's going to run up the score in Habasu, Billhead City, in Wickenburg, all those other rural parts of the state.
00:14:57.000 Yeah, Prescott, all of that.
00:14:58.000 And so, look, there's kind of a collection of 15 or 20 counties that will determine everything.
00:15:03.000 But I am really curious if the Democrats' overconfidence and the lack of a ground game, they have no ground game.
00:15:12.000 Are they going to be able to generate long lines in urban America to offset what is going to happen tomorrow?
00:15:19.000 And if all polling is even close to correct, 70% of people that goes to go to the polls tomorrow are going to vote for Donald Trump.
00:15:25.000 Now, some people say that's not enough, but the president did record very well in early voting.
00:15:31.000 So there's a path.
00:15:33.000 And I don't think, I think the most likely state to break is Pennsylvania.
00:15:36.000 Yeah, that's the one that I think everyone studying the data right now.
00:15:41.000 It looks like it's really in play.
00:15:42.000 And I think all the energy and all the time that the president has spent there the last couple of weeks, of course, Joe Biden has showed up a few times now too, tells you that that state is clearly in play and probably the one that we'll be hanging on to and maybe even going to court to look at.
00:15:59.000 When you look at young voters, obviously you've created one of the great youth movements in America.
00:16:03.000 I want to say youth, young adult movements in America.
00:16:07.000 Where do you think millennials come out of this election?
00:16:13.000 They seem to be steadily in the blue corner, which means 10 years from now, 20 years from now, there could be a big change.
00:16:19.000 Are you seeing any dynamic changes in that?
00:16:22.000 And are there changes like among young African Americans?
00:16:25.000 One of the things I'm seeing in our polling data is that young African Americans are becoming more Republican, more Trump than either their parents or their grandparents.
00:16:33.000 Are you seeing some of that?
00:16:34.000 And what are you looking at in the millennial vote?
00:16:36.000 Yeah, we are.
00:16:37.000 I've never said, I don't think that Trump will win the millennial vote.
00:16:40.000 I think he'll do better, though.
00:16:41.000 I really do.
00:16:42.000 I think that the president will do better amongst younger voters that are starting to try to build a life and actually are starting to see a lot of the financial costs of living outside of just a college bubble.
00:16:55.000 I think the president is going to actually win 18 to 22-year-olds in certain states.
00:17:00.000 I think the president's going to do really well with younger voters in Wisconsin, in Ohio, and in some of the southern states.
00:17:07.000 The reason is this, is that some of these college campuses are completely closed.
00:17:11.000 Voter registration is down 94% at Ohio State University.
00:17:15.000 Typically, a Democrat can count on 7,000 to 10,000 votes from Michigan State University no matter what.
00:17:22.000 Just mail it in.
00:17:24.000 They're basically closed.
00:17:25.000 There's no campusing.
00:17:26.000 There's no GO TV.
00:17:27.000 And a lot of those are out-of-state voters.
00:17:29.000 That's transfer growth.
00:17:32.000 That's coming from Indiana to Michigan State or Illinois to Michigan State.
00:17:35.000 And they re-register.
00:17:36.000 That's completely off the table through Zoom class and kind of shutting down campuses.
00:17:41.000 However, I'll say this: the conservatives, no matter where they are, the young conservatives, they will vote.
00:17:46.000 And we are starting to see data that young conservatives are way more enthused to turn out.
00:17:52.000 They're less likely to publicly profess or proclaim their support.
00:17:56.000 And I think a lot of the pollsters are going to be very surprised when they start to see some of these college districts be a lot more competitive for the president.
00:18:03.000 Again, I'm not a guy who's going to say that Trump's going to win the youth vote.
00:18:06.000 I think that they'll naturally get more conservative as they get older.
00:18:06.000 I don't think that's going to happen.
00:18:09.000 But also keep an eye on Hispanics.
00:18:11.000 I think that President Trump might actually win Hispanics in Florida, Texas, and Arizona.
00:18:16.000 You're starting to see record movement, especially with 30 to 45-year-old Hispanics that are very much invested in the American way of life.
00:18:25.000 And what do you think it is that has made him suddenly resonate with this constituency?
00:18:31.000 We're seeing it here.
00:18:32.000 We see it in a couple of places, but we see it in younger African Americans and under the age of 40.
00:18:38.000 And we're seeing it in Hispanics, particularly middle-aged Hispanics, men and women.
00:18:42.000 What do you think are the sudden synergy points?
00:18:45.000 And what does this mean for the Republican Party long term?
00:18:48.000 Yeah, I'll start with the black community. 1.00
00:18:50.000 At Turning Point USA, we really did a lot the last couple of years to try and draw attention to kind of this black exodus from liberal thinking. 1.00
00:19:00.000 And Candace Owens has done a lot on this. 1.00
00:19:02.000 Brandon Tatum, they were on the cutting edge of this.
00:19:05.000 And you're starting to actually see that this is turning into a real thing.
00:19:09.000 This is not just conservative popcorn.
00:19:11.000 This is going to be real substance.
00:19:13.000 And I'll say this.
00:19:14.000 I think that the president deserves a lot of credit, though. 0.74
00:19:17.000 He deserves credit because he's actually asking blacks for their vote.
00:19:20.000 He's going into their communities.
00:19:22.000 He's meeting with rappers.
00:19:23.000 He's unafraid to continue to ask for black Americans to support him despite all the names that President Trump has called.
00:19:31.000 One of my favorite storylines of this election, if it proves to be true, what I think is going to happen is that white liberals don't vote for Trump because they think he's a racist, but black Americans get him reelected.
00:19:43.000 I just, I can't wait to, I don't know if that's going to happen.
00:19:46.000 A lot of the data is trending that way. 0.87
00:19:49.000 But if black Americans even vote for Trump in 10 to 15%, it's a win for President Trump. 0.55
00:19:56.000 He wins decisively. 0.75
00:19:58.000 And I will say this: with young, with younger Hispanics and younger blacks, I think that they believe the overly the over-dogmatic positioning of the Democrat Party, where it's you're not a black person if you don't support Democrat policies. 0.63
00:20:14.000 It's insulting.
00:20:15.000 And for free-thinking young people, they don't want to be told what to do.
00:20:19.000 And they know that that is such a poor argument.
00:20:22.000 And quite honestly, it's kind of racist to tell somebody that. 0.96
00:20:24.000 Maxine Waters came out and said that I will never forgive black Trump supporters. 0.97
00:20:29.000 I don't know what's going on in their heads. 0.92
00:20:31.000 It's actually going to have the reverse effect. 1.00
00:20:33.000 You're going to have black males that are going to be like, you can't tell me what to do. 0.99
00:20:35.000 Like, I'm going to support Trump just because you're saying that. 0.98
00:20:38.000 Yeah, it is remarkable.
00:20:40.000 And I think there is that moment of boomerang.
00:20:43.000 And so, you know, President Trump's got eight. 0.56
00:20:44.000 I think the best that any Republican ever did was 10% of the black vote with George Bush in 2004. 0.52
00:20:52.000 If he breaks beyond that, if he goes 10, 11, 12%, which some polls are now showing him at, it will be a real problem for Democrats.
00:20:59.000 They won't have a pathway to victory.
00:21:01.000 That's how significant the shift could be.
00:21:03.000 When you look at the Senate races, House races, anything that you're looking for in the bellwether races here, it looks like Joni Ernst is going to be safe in Iowa.
00:21:10.000 You're going to pick up, the Republicans are going to pick up Alabama.
00:21:13.000 All right.
00:21:13.000 Doug Jones is probably not going to win.
00:21:16.000 Where else are you watching for bellwether races on Tuesday night?
00:21:20.000 I got a sleeper one for you.
00:21:21.000 The Minnesota Senate race.
00:21:23.000 I think the Minnesota Senate race can flip.
00:21:25.000 I'm seeing early voting numbers that are phenomenal.
00:21:27.000 And for a lot of the suburban voters that don't like Trump, but they want a Republican check on the riots and the anarchy.
00:21:32.000 I think his name's Jason Lewis.
00:21:35.000 He's running up against Senator Smith.
00:21:36.000 He's an incumbent congressman.
00:21:38.000 Unfortunately, he couldn't campaign the last couple of days because he had a medical issue.
00:21:42.000 I think he's back on the trail now.
00:21:44.000 But that's a sleeper.
00:21:45.000 Don't be surprised because the Iron Range is now reliably Republican.
00:21:49.000 He's been working that district.
00:21:50.000 He's well liked in the suburban areas of Minneapolis.
00:21:53.000 It's a one-point race, John.
00:21:55.000 It's a one-point race according to the latest local polling there.
00:21:59.000 I love the sleeper races.
00:22:00.000 I like those the most because all the national money has been, and this is, if he wins, it will be the ultimate overconfidence of political strategy I've ever seen.
00:22:10.000 They've pumped $80 million to try to defeat Lindsey Graham.
00:22:13.000 Guess what? 1.00
00:22:14.000 Lindsey Graham is going to win by eight to 10 points tomorrow evening.
00:22:17.000 I hate to break it to you.
00:22:18.000 Your hatred will not turn into his defeat.
00:22:21.000 Yeah, I think Senator Perdue will win in Georgia because President Trump, I think, bailed him out last evening in Rome, Georgia.
00:22:28.000 John Ossip has run a really good campaign.
00:22:30.000 Kudos to him.
00:22:32.000 Yeah, I'm impressed with him.
00:22:33.000 He's just, I don't think the state's there yet.
00:22:36.000 And I say that as a Republican.
00:22:37.000 He's run a really, really good race.
00:22:39.000 I hope the state never gets there.
00:22:40.000 I hope Tom Tillis comes across the finish line.
00:22:43.000 North Carolina is traditionally one of the hardest states to poll because it's such a diverse state.
00:22:47.000 You have three big urban areas, Asheville, Raleigh, and Charlotte.
00:22:50.000 You got Western North Carolina, which is super conservative, and Eastern North Carolina, which is super conservative.
00:22:56.000 So it's just hard to put all that together.
00:22:57.000 But I think Tom Tillis has a chance of pulling it off.
00:23:00.000 I hate to say this.
00:23:01.000 I think Corey Gardner's done.
00:23:02.000 I think that Hicken Looper is going to win.
00:23:04.000 Susan Collins, impossible state to poll. 1.00
00:23:06.000 She might pull it off. 1.00
00:23:08.000 She really might because that state's a one-third Republican, one-third Independent, one-third Democrat.
00:23:13.000 She knows her state. 1.00
00:23:13.000 She got a great machine. 1.00
00:23:15.000 She knows what it's going to take for her to win.
00:23:16.000 She'll know early whether or not she's going to win or not.
00:23:19.000 And I think the president's going to help her in banger in CD2.
00:23:23.000 And then I think Martha McSally might pull it off in Arizona.
00:23:25.000 I really do. 0.58
00:23:27.000 I'm seeing some really good polling of her finishing strong.
00:23:30.000 I wouldn't have told you that a week ago.
00:23:32.000 I know Martha, she's a friend of mine.
00:23:34.000 I really hope she closes it out. 0.78
00:23:36.000 Democrats are not going to win in Texas. 0.93
00:23:38.000 They're not going to win in Kentucky.
00:23:39.000 These were all really, these are Hollywood-funded pipe dreams where these people come in and they raise $20 million.
00:23:45.000 Please continue to go waste money on these races. 0.96
00:23:48.000 And then John James, I don't know.
00:23:49.000 John James got a tough race there.
00:23:51.000 I don't know if he's going to be able to pull it off.
00:23:54.000 Yeah, the Michigan Senate race, exactly.
00:23:56.000 Yeah, he's been in striking distance, which makes it really interesting.
00:23:58.000 Yeah, and for suburban voters that don't like Trump, I would think that's kind of a safe haven, right?
00:24:03.000 For suburban center-right people that don't like Trump's tone and they want to return to normalcy, I would hope that at least they would go vote for John James.
00:24:12.000 And President Trump going to Grand Rapids tonight is going to help John James significantly.
00:24:16.000 So look, if Republicans can hold one out of the four, I think they hold the Senate.
00:24:21.000 I think Joni Ernst will win in Iowa.
00:24:23.000 I'm confident of that. 0.61
00:24:24.000 She looks like she's surging at the right time.
00:24:27.000 So if Republicans can just win one out of Colorado, Arizona, North Carolina, Maine, the least likely is Colorado, then Arizona, then Maine, North Carolina, the Senate, I think, will stay in Republican hands.
00:24:38.000 If I can talk about a couple of house races really quick, John.
00:24:40.000 Please do, because we got those 30 Trump districts that could go one way or the other. 0.99
00:24:44.000 So one of them is Genevieve Collins in Dallas.
00:24:46.000 I really like that.
00:24:47.000 I think she can flip that.
00:24:48.000 I hope she does.
00:24:50.000 I really like Young Kim in Orange County and Michelle Steele.
00:24:54.000 I think ballot harvesting, where she went for freshman orientation and they kind of went back on her.
00:25:00.000 So I really think that I hope that she'll be able to pull that off and she looks really, really strong and confident in that. 0.93
00:25:08.000 I also like the new race, Alex Scaralogas.
00:25:11.000 He's got a Greek name in Eastern Oregon.
00:25:13.000 It's looking really good for him.
00:25:14.000 I think that's a flip that can definitely come.
00:25:18.000 That'll be one of the unexpected one.
00:25:19.000 Yeah, it's a sleeper.
00:25:21.000 Don't be surprised if that one happens on election.
00:25:24.000 What are you seeing in the Central Virginia race where Spamberger is?
00:25:28.000 It's going to be a toss-up.
00:25:29.000 Just Virginia has gone through a lot of different demographic changes.
00:25:34.000 I haven't seen any recent polling there, but I would be surprised if that one does not trend in the Republican direction.
00:25:40.000 And a lot of these Pelosi flips, the other one's New Mexico through Zachtel Torres, I think's her name.
00:25:45.000 I think she's in a lot of trouble.
00:25:46.000 Pelosi has put a ton of money into that race.
00:25:49.000 So I think that Republicans could comfortably flip 10 or 12 seats, which would be amazing.
00:25:54.000 That would put them in striking distance for the 2022 midterms to take back the House.
00:25:58.000 And there is a chance that Republicans do take back the House.
00:26:02.000 The problem is that it would take Illinois 14 and Illinois 6 to be flipped.
00:26:06.000 Genie Ives and Jim Oberweiss.
00:26:07.000 Those are tough, tough races just because of how much people hate Trump in that part of the world.
00:26:12.000 All things being equal, I also love kind of looking at some of these longer, these way long shot races.
00:26:18.000 I don't think she's, she might win Kimberly Klesick. 0.99
00:26:20.000 I'll be super interested to see how she does.
00:26:22.000 How can a black Republican with $6 million cash on hand who runs a great race, who actually campaigns, what can a Republican do?
00:26:30.000 I'm just from a political science standpoint, that's an interesting thing to look at.
00:26:33.000 It's a fascinating race.
00:26:34.000 Yeah.
00:26:35.000 And it probably speaks volumes to the extraordinary door that Trump has opened to the African-American community, to all these cities that have been under Democratic rule for 40, 50, 60 years.
00:26:47.000 What do they have to lose?
00:26:48.000 And I think that's the argument she makes.
00:26:50.000 What do you have to lose and take it a chance?
00:26:52.000 That's exactly right.
00:26:54.000 That can sometimes become a very powerful argument.
00:26:56.000 Obviously, Baltimore's got a big machine.
00:27:01.000 Black Friday, Cyber Monday, one day only sale.
00:27:05.000 Wouldn't you rather just work with a company who puts you on a pedestal every day?
00:27:09.000 That's what you get from Pure Talk, a veteran-run wireless company who understands what it means to serve.
00:27:14.000 Verizon, ATT, T-Mobile, if you're with one of them, you're overpaying pure and simple.
00:27:18.000 Pure Talk can easily save you over $400 a year.
00:27:22.000 Listen, this is all you need.
00:27:23.000 Unlimited talk and text and two gigs of data for just 20 bucks a month.
00:27:26.000 And if you go over on data usage, they don't charge you for it.
00:27:29.000 What a novelty.
00:27:30.000 A company that actually puts their customers first.
00:27:32.000 Switching to PeerTalk is the easiest decision you'll make today.
00:27:35.000 You can keep your phone or your number.
00:27:38.000 You can keep your phone and your number or get great deals on the latest iPhones and Androids.
00:27:42.000 Grab your mobile phone, dial pound 250 and say, Charlie Kirk.
00:27:45.000 When you do, you'll say 50% off your first month.
00:27:48.000 Dial pound250 and say keyword Charlie Kirk PeerTalk.
00:27:51.000 Simply, smarter, wireless.
00:27:57.000 Where do you think the Democrats, is there any one place where you think the Democrats are going to surprise people?
00:28:01.000 Do you have any sleepers surprises for the Democrats?
00:28:04.000 Yeah, they've definitely put a lot of money into those Senate races I mentioned.
00:28:08.000 I think that Mitch McConnell's done a great job of normalizing those races.
00:28:11.000 I think the Amy Coney Barrett fight was kind of like a $1 billion in-kind contribution to at-risk senators because it gave them something to get in the local and statewide news, all the newspapers to show what they're doing.
00:28:22.000 It was phenomenal.
00:28:23.000 It was an act of brilliance by Mitch McConnell, and I'm not one to go out of my way to compliment him.
00:28:27.000 But I've done my fair share of criticism of his Senate leadership, but he's been phenomenal with that.
00:28:34.000 I think the Democrats, they could, and this is just their path to victory.
00:28:39.000 They could surprise us all.
00:28:41.000 They could surprise us all where all these early voting Republicans, it could be that only 82% of those are voting for Trump.
00:28:47.000 It could be that some of these older Republicans are voting for Biden, that it's because his handling of the virus or his tone and all of the early voting advantage that we think we have, we really don't.
00:28:59.000 I think this is unlikely.
00:29:00.000 I don't see any polling to reflect this.
00:29:02.000 I see no anecdotal evidence to reflect this.
00:29:04.000 And the radicalism of the Democrat Party does not make this argument more likely.
00:29:09.000 The more they've embraced BLM and Antifa, the stronger Trump's hold on the Republican Party has been.
00:29:14.000 And we don't see this in any sort of metrics, but there could be a hidden Biden vote, and I don't dismiss it.
00:29:20.000 If Biden wins, it'll be that just like there was a hidden Trump vote in 2016, there were people in Trump districts that hated Trump and they came out in big numbers to go vote.
00:29:29.000 That's their pathway to victory.
00:29:32.000 You didn't see that.
00:29:32.000 Their strategy was played out.
00:29:34.000 Aubi Day rolling out a Republican who's flipped parties for him.
00:29:36.000 That's been a big part of their strategy.
00:29:39.000 And I don't see that in the macro trends.
00:29:40.000 I don't.
00:29:41.000 I don't see that in voter registration.
00:29:42.000 I don't see that in public polling.
00:29:44.000 I don't see that in our conversations.
00:29:46.000 And I don't see that in door knocking.
00:29:47.000 I don't.
00:29:48.000 And I think the president, the last two weeks, the reason why he took that Des Moines register poll from 47 and 47% in September to now 47 to 41 and leading with independence is his message has been so good the last two to three weeks.
00:30:00.000 And his final debate performance was everything that anxious suburban Republicans needed to go confidently say, okay, I got it.
00:30:07.000 He was calm.
00:30:08.000 He was cool.
00:30:08.000 He was collected.
00:30:09.000 Biden was angry, bitter, and mean and radical. 0.67
00:30:12.000 I'm going to go vote for Trump.
00:30:13.000 And that's why I think you're starting to see that kind of separation speed.
00:30:17.000 But it very well could be that Democrats surprise us and may have a suburban surge, the likes of which we've never seen.
00:30:23.000 If suburban voters show up to 85, 90% turnout, which I think is unlikely, and Biden wins 70% of them, it doesn't matter how many rural voters we have.
00:30:31.000 We can't cancel that out.
00:30:33.000 No, no chance.
00:30:33.000 You can't.
00:30:35.000 Well, that's fascinating.
00:30:35.000 Yeah.
00:30:36.000 Charlie, after the election, we've been through this extraordinary moment.
00:30:41.000 We've had COVID.
00:30:42.000 We've had the violence in the cities.
00:30:44.000 We've had censorship in the social media, you yourself being a victim of it.
00:30:49.000 There's all this antagonism.
00:30:51.000 No matter who wins, who makes the first step at going and calming this country down and getting us to think more about the we in America, not the us and them in America.
00:31:00.000 That's got to be the next president, whether it's Trump or Biden.
00:31:03.000 Got to be one of their top agenda items.
00:31:04.000 Don't you agree?
00:31:05.000 Yeah, I would hope so.
00:31:06.000 And if President Trump wins, I think that you'll see an explosion of rebellion, and then I think it'll fizzle out.
00:31:14.000 I think that it'll fizzle out after a couple of weeks when people realize there's not an election with his name on it, and we lost and he won.
00:31:22.000 And you'll see a Democrat civil war. 0.57
00:31:23.000 You'll see all that kind of energy go into a Democrat Civil War.
00:31:27.000 If Biden wins, I don't think Republicans and Trump supporters are going to go burn down American cities.
00:31:32.000 That's not who we are.
00:31:33.000 I don't think that'll happen.
00:31:34.000 And by the way, if anyone does that, I'll denounce it and I'll say, cut it out.
00:31:37.000 We lost.
00:31:38.000 Go back to work.
00:31:39.000 I mean, that's just, that's how we operate.
00:31:41.000 That's not, unfortunately, how they do.
00:31:43.000 And then, yeah, if Joe Biden wins, my wish is if Joe Biden wins, I hope he actually governs like the person he's telling us he is, which we know he isn't.
00:31:52.000 I'm cynical and skeptical.
00:31:53.000 I think it's unlikely, but I'd love to see him be a moderate if he wins.
00:31:57.000 Again, I don't know.
00:31:59.000 I don't think his chances of winning are what other people say, but if he actually is a center-right candidate who will allow us to still be energy independent, not go after fracking, which, by the way, he says the opposite a couple months ago.
00:32:10.000 But here's why I say this, John.
00:32:12.000 I actually want what's best for my country.
00:32:13.000 Like, I actually kind of want America to be an awesome place to live and to build a family and have the American way of life.
00:32:19.000 And I don't want to see Kamala Harris become president where we have the most liberal senator take over the executive branch.
00:32:25.000 And so my agenda is hopefully for the country by January or February.
00:32:29.000 We're fully open.
00:32:30.000 We have economic numbers that are responding and rebounding.
00:32:35.000 And I hope that the courts don't get politicized.
00:32:37.000 I hope that D.C. and Puerto Rico don't get be made as federal states.
00:32:41.000 I hope that liberal states don't get blanketly bailed out from the bankruptcy.
00:32:46.000 Obviously, I know what president is going to prevent all those things from happening, and we already have him as president.
00:32:52.000 But yeah, I think that the president has to then win and then take us through a healing moment because this year has been unpredictable and turbulent at best.
00:33:01.000 It has indeed.
00:33:02.000 There's no doubt about it.
00:33:03.000 Well, Charlie, as always, we are so blessed to have you on the show.
00:33:06.000 Congratulations on all the success and all the work you've done.
00:33:08.000 I know you've been working tirelessly, and in a couple of days, we're going to know the fruit of that labor.
00:33:14.000 So thank you very much for all you do.
00:33:16.000 We'll have you back on at the show to help us make sense of it all.
00:33:18.000 That's great.
00:33:18.000 Thanks, John.
00:33:19.000 Thanks, Charlie.
00:33:19.000 You bet.
00:33:20.000 Have a good night.
00:33:23.000 If you want to get involved with Turning Point USA, go to tpusa.com, tpusa.com.
00:33:27.000 Email us, freedom at charliekirk.com.
00:33:29.000 Please consider supporting us at charliekirk.com/slash support.
00:33:33.000 I want to thank all of you for supporting us.
00:33:36.000 I hope you voted.
00:33:37.000 Let's do something about saving America, everybody.
00:33:39.000 Lots of election results will be rolling in.
00:33:42.000 I'll be watching.
00:33:43.000 God bless.
00:33:43.000 I hope it goes well for our country.
00:33:46.000 Pray.
00:33:48.000 See you on the other side.