00:00:00.000Hey everybody, today on the Charlie Kirk show, we start with a California poll analysis with Richard Barris from People's Pundit, and then we get an update from the man himself, Larry Elder, who might be the next governor of California.
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00:02:20.000Welcome to this episode of the Charlie Kirk Show.
00:02:23.000With us today is a friend of mine, and he's rarely ever wrong.
00:02:27.000In fact, we had him coming on our program leading up to the election, and he got almost all of his predictions correctly.
00:02:36.000Richard Barris from the People's Pundit, and also we had you on for the Georgia thing, and you were the one that early said, Hey, we got a problem in Georgia, and you were right.
00:02:44.000So we're going to hear to talk about California polls.
00:02:47.000And so, all right, Richard, let's cut through all of the nonsense.
00:02:51.000Yes, the way it works in California for all of our friends in Maine and Massachusetts and Florida and South Carolina.
00:03:27.000And I did see other pollsters that had him in the 60s.
00:03:30.000If you look at who is voting right now, this is why Democrats are nervous.
00:03:34.000The electorate is very white and it's much older.
00:03:38.000So if the electorate and we had them at 50, we had whites at 55, but we still had the age breakdown to be pretty young.
00:03:47.000So that could be a two-point advantage could easily be swamped by a demographic difference like that.
00:03:54.000The problem Newsom has, and I was just saying this before, he needs white liberals and Asian voters to come out, and they are the least likely to want to vote.
00:04:05.000Whites were over 80% certain to vote when we polled them, and Asian voters were in the 50s.
00:04:12.000So I mean, it really goes to show you, you know, a close race can turn into a nail biter either way.
00:04:42.000But again, the X factor really is that the most likely somebody is to vote, the more likely they are to vote against him.
00:04:52.000So we looked at the entire register voter universe too, and Gavin Newsom would survive by probably 10 or 12 points if he got a typical turnout.
00:06:20.000So, you know, in Virginia, you just can't, you cannot afford a 20-point slide if you're a Democrat in Virginia.
00:06:26.000Yes, I was going to ask you regionally.
00:06:28.000So basically, the base for Gavin is that whole Bay Area, right?
00:06:32.000It's San Jose, it's Oakland, it's downtown San Francisco.
00:06:36.000But as soon as you start to get into Stockton and you get into Modesto and you get into Fresno and you get into Bakersfield, that kind of Central Valley corridor, that could screw up some of the polling.
00:06:49.000I mean, they could run up the score almost probably like seven to three almost, like a 70% to 30% margin against Gavin, which could really, it would be more, probably more decisive than a regular election would be because they hate Gavin Newsom in the Central Valley.
00:07:29.000Jim Costa, I mean, he's a, I don't even know how many year incumbent, very under the radar, barely, barely known, but he won that district 20 points in 2020, even though Trump did much better.
00:07:41.000But they want to throw out Gavin by an eight-point margin.
00:07:44.000So I think that some, you know, California is a big state.
00:08:17.000In fact, some people say over 100 million people are struggling with some kind of pain, maybe from exercise or just getting older.
00:08:23.000Now, Pete and Seth Talbot, they are on a mission.
00:08:25.000You rarely see this kind of focus and commitment.
00:08:27.000They recently shared with me that they are doubling down and want to literally double their total number of happy customers in the next year.
00:08:46.000So maybe you want to be able to do cartwheels or be able to do backflips like producer Andrew.
00:08:51.000Maybe you want to be able to run a marathon, swim underwater, go scuba diving, jump out of an airplane, but maybe it's your knee pain, back pain, joint pain, whatever pain it might be.
00:09:25.000You have to have the Hispanic, the Hispanic base in kind of LA not turn out, right?
00:09:31.000And then you need to have a suburban 180, right?
00:09:35.000You need to have kind of the Westwood yoga moms and, you know, the Brentwood yoga moms, I mean, and kind of like the Pasadena professors be like, not going to happen.
00:09:47.000And the reason I'm saying this, though, is that this really is an uphill climb.
00:09:51.000I mean, California, you need like five different dominoes to fall.
00:10:26.000And the reason why is because a lot of the people who did tell us they were going to vote were anti-Newsom.
00:10:32.000So outside in the county, you know, around Ventura, the suburbs, he was not doing well.
00:10:38.000And then you had San Diego, for instance, where if San Diego was a bigger margin for no, or for yes to recall him, then probably means Orange County would have been a little bit wider.
00:10:51.000And it may have been a lead for a minute there, but San Diego was not as pro recall as we expected it to be, or it needs to be.
00:11:00.000So there are definitely five dominoes, maybe even more that you need to see fall.
00:11:05.000That white liberal base, you know, which is that Bay Area.
00:11:08.000He needs the more inland Hispanics for sure.
00:11:12.000Central Valley Hispanics, the working Hispanic in the Central Valley.
00:11:39.000And then two, there were a lot of independents and even Democrats because we had about 18% of Democrats told us they were going to vote yes.
00:11:47.000But even this big chunk of Democrats who wanted to vote yes, big chunk of independents who want to vote yes, but they're afraid of Republicans.
00:11:53.000The Republican brand stinks out there.
00:12:25.000But on the flip side of that, Charlie, the problems that California is suffering from, there's almost no way to cover them up with politics anymore.
00:12:37.000Homelessness, cost of living was the most important issue with voting.
00:12:41.000And when we asked people what about cost of living, they told us housing prices, gas prices, and state and local taxes.
00:12:58.000The one maybe good thing Gavin Newsome has for him is that coronavirus, if you pump that fear level up, you may scare people back into their coronavirus holes where they care more about the virus than they do cost of living.
00:13:11.000I'm not sure he was there yet, but so he took a different turn.
00:13:16.000And instead, let me try to scare them on the idea of a Republican being in the mansion.
00:14:57.000We asked that same question to Floridians about a year ago, and almost 80%, about 78%, told us they were happy living in Florida and never thought about leaving.
00:15:09.000Hey, Rich, I've been sort of hanging out here in the background, just soaking it all in.
00:15:13.000I want to ask you specifically in the time we have remaining, you know, we're about to have Larry on right after you.
00:15:18.000So we're going to have a chance to talk to the man himself.
00:15:21.000I'm really curious about this Hispanic vote specifically.
00:15:24.000Obviously, the state is becoming more Hispanic.
00:15:27.000You know, they have more kids than basically any other constituency.
00:15:31.000We still have a lot of Hispanic folks immigrating to California, whether illegally or illegally.
00:15:37.000We're seeing them become more conservative.
00:15:40.000You said that before, but there was polling out a couple weeks ago that said that they were the only ethnic group that supported the yes vote.
00:16:43.000And I will say with Larry Elder, you know, he's been on message.
00:16:47.000You know, when we pull what these people care about, you know, if I could put it in a slogan, I guess I would, you know, I would say that California is just unlivable and Newsom is a hypocrite.
00:17:00.000Because that is, we asked different things about Gavin Newsom.
00:17:03.000And what there was bipartisan, widespread support over was that he doesn't practice what he preaches.
00:17:09.000He even ticked off people who didn't care about lockdowns, you know, from working Hispanics who absolutely hated those lockdowns to the white liberal who doesn't care, is on the computer all day anyway, and is wealthy.
00:17:25.000Across the board, these people told us that he's a hypocrite.
00:17:29.000So that was an area of vulnerability there.
00:17:32.000That and the state is just, if you can be well off financially, but live in an area where it's not really livable, you know, the homelessness situation is disgusting in some parts of Gavin Newsom's own neighborhood.
00:17:45.000And they told us that, Charlie, this is, it can be gross to walk down streets that we used to love to take strolls down.
00:17:52.000And then on the flip side of that, for the not so wealthy, that they are, they're suffering financially between the lockdowns and the rising cost of living.
00:18:01.000So Richard, we have to get Larry Elder on right now.
00:18:04.000I just want to say the night of the election, we're going to be covering it.
00:18:08.000I'm sure you'll be covering it live, but you have an open invitation to come in on our broadcast as we do an all-night stream because I kind of want to know what counties are trending where.
00:18:59.000But if it, if Charlie, it is absolutely possible that this thing can go so much against them that they, you know, they would have to be, they would have to be playing games for weeks and weeks.
00:19:10.000And I'm, if the electorate pulls out the way that it suggests in the ballot tracking, which I'm talking about right now, what's been returned, then Gavin Newsome still has a lot of work to do.
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00:21:11.000As you pointed out, I clearly have the plurality on the replacement side: whether or not 50% plus one voters in California vote to recall Gavin Newsom.
00:21:22.000And it's my job to remind people why nearly 2 million people signed that petition, Charlie, to get this guy out of here.
00:21:27.000Almost a third of them were the very people that voted for him just two years earlier.
00:21:30.000And by that, I'm talking about independents and Democrats.
00:21:35.00063% of Hispanics voted for him two years ago.
00:21:38.000And now the majority of Hispanics want him out, largely because Gavin Newsom shut down public education.
00:21:44.000And before he shut down public education, kids educated in our government schools were already behind.
00:21:49.000Our scores are near the bottom of all 50 states while we're spending $15,000 per student per year and not getting sufficient bank for our buck.
00:21:57.000He also shut down the state to the point where a third of all small businesses are now gone forever.
00:22:02.000And many of these small businesses were owned by black and brown and Asian American people, the kind of people that people like Gavin Newsom pride themselves on caring about.
00:22:10.000And so, Larry, this is something that has now become a national kind of issue, the California recall.
00:22:17.000And Gavin Newsom is very nervous, and he's largely nervous because he has a formidable opponent in you and the message that you are bringing forward.
00:22:25.000And you've kind of set the entire American kind of political community on fire, and you've stayed so disciplined.
00:22:32.000I just want to say they've tried to trap you in so many different ways.
00:22:35.000And I got to ask you, Larry, what is it like to be called saying that you are the black face of white supremacy?
00:22:40.000I mean, have you seen it all at this point now?
00:22:44.000Yeah, well, you know, Charlie, I work real hard to earn that title, so just don't dismiss it.
00:22:51.000You know, I was looking at a New York Times front page article about my race, and it was a negative article, of course.
00:22:56.000And it did not mention the fact that I'm black.
00:23:01.000Even though I would be the first black governor of California, I've never ever asked anybody to vote for me because I'm black or to vote against me because I'm black.
00:23:08.000But on the very same page, there was a big article about the current governor of New York being, quote, the first female governor of New York.
00:23:15.000Even though she didn't run, she was basically appointed because the other guy resigned, but that was a big deal.
00:23:21.000But my race wasn't even referred to because when you're the first black conservative, they don't care about you being the first.
00:23:27.000It's a kind of double standard, Charlie, that you and I have been talking about for a very long time.
00:23:31.000I've been talking about and writing about this for almost 35, 40 years in television and in radio.
00:24:05.000So Larry, I just got to ask you as a friend and as just someone who's curious, since you've jumped into this race, obviously you were in touch with the grassroots.
00:24:20.000Well, you know, if you know my show, and I know you do, I've never been one of those who ridiculed political people in politics, never called them funny names.
00:24:28.000I never made jokes about him because I always knew it was a hard gig that your personal life is exposed.
00:24:33.000And every two years, four years, six years, there's a thumbs up or a thumbs down over your job and you can lose your job.
00:24:39.000But I must tell you, I had no idea how rigorous it was to run on a campaign.
00:24:44.000I've only been doing it for six weeks.
00:24:46.000You hear my voice already is being stressed.
00:24:49.000Imagine doing this for an entire year, having this kind of schedule.
00:25:43.000Just do you see something that's happening, Larry, that's even bigger than the California recall of people that are stepping up that want to take their country back.
00:25:51.000So many people, Charlie, have told me, Larry, you've inspired me.
00:25:55.000I'm now going to run for school board.
00:25:57.000I'm now going to run for city council.
00:25:58.000I wasn't going to get into politics, but now that you've done it and I've seen what you've sacrificed, Larry, you have inspired me to get into politics.
00:26:06.000People keep telling me how much courage I have.
00:26:07.000I never thought of it that way, Charlie.
00:26:09.000I felt I have an obligation, a spiritual, a moral, and a patriotic duty to do this because I feel that I'm the only one that can beat Gavin Newsome.
00:26:16.000No disrespect to my Republican rivals, but they didn't have the same name recognition that I have.
00:26:21.000They have been talking about these issues for 27 years, writing about them for 27 years like I have.
00:26:26.000And I felt that I could do something and I can make things better on crime, on homelessness, on the outrageous cost of living, on the way this man shut down this state while ignoring science while his own kids were enjoying in-person education, on fire management, on water management, and on energy.
00:26:43.000I can do something to make things better for Californians.
00:26:46.000And I feel I have a moral, a spiritual, and a patriotic duty to do that.
00:27:10.000The election is right around the corner.
00:27:12.000You know, the opposition is spending money like you can't believe.
00:27:17.000And so talk a little bit about this last-minute sprint.
00:27:20.000And then what will some of your actions be if all of a sudden we wake up and Larry Elder's governor, which very well might happen?
00:27:26.000Well, the last minute sprint is to remind people of why 2 million people signed this petition to get him out.
00:27:30.000As I mentioned, about a third of them were independents as Democrats who just voted for him two years earlier.
00:27:36.000I'm reminding people of how their kids are really getting shafted because they didn't go back to in-person education about the businesses that have been shut down because this man ignored science and didn't allow business owners and employees to figure it out.
00:27:49.000And what's going on here is it's become a national issue.
00:27:53.000That's why he's brought in all this heavy lumber from outside.
00:27:56.000Elizabeth Warren cut a commercial for him.
00:28:02.000And what they haven't, what you've never heard any one of them say, Charlie, is, and I'm quoting, Governor Gavin Newsom has done a good job for California, close quote.
00:28:12.000All you've heard is that this is a Republican takeover, a right-wing takeover, but no defense about crime, which is up.
00:28:18.000No defense about homelessness, which is up.
00:28:20.000No defense about the fact that people are leaving California for the very first time in this state that's 170 years old.
00:28:26.000And they're citing high cost of living, taxes, and excessive regulation.
00:28:30.000You don't hear any defense of all that.
00:28:31.000All you're hearing is let's change the conversation.
00:28:34.000Let's talk about issues that have nothing whatever to do with why people have signed this petition and want this guy out.
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00:30:48.000I won't impose statewide mandates the way this guy has on face masks and on vaccines.
00:30:54.000He has mandated that every government worker who's not been vaccinated be tested once a week and will be required to wear a face mask at work.
00:31:03.000I'm not anti-vax because of my age and because of other underlying comorbidities.
00:31:08.000But for crying out loud, a lot of people have made a very different decision.
00:31:12.000And for him to tell people who assume the risk you need to wear a mask at work to protect yourself against other people who assume the risk, it's anti-science.
00:31:20.000And he's supposed to be the one who's pro-science.
00:31:22.000I'm also going to declare a statewide emergency on housing.
00:31:26.000We have environmental laws that prevent developers from developing low-cost housing, which is why the price of a home in California has just hit $800,000, which is anywhere from 150% to 250% above the national average.
00:31:38.000I'm also going to declare a statewide emergency on water.
00:31:41.000We have all sorts of projects for more reservoirs to raise dams and to store water underground.
00:31:47.000We do have our wet seasons, and we're not doing that.
00:31:50.000Water is draining right out into the Pacific Ocean because of these projects are being held up for fear of lawsuits.
00:31:55.000I'm going to declare a statewide emergency on water.
00:31:57.000So there are going to be some big changes when I get there, even though I'll be dealing with a hostile legislature.
00:32:02.000Well, and there's a lot of power that the California governor could have.
00:32:06.000And also, this would send shockwaves all throughout the national political community.
00:32:11.000So, Larry, I know that you're losing your voice and you're traveling the state.
00:32:15.000In closing, how can people help you in this last sprint?
00:32:17.000Because we want to stay supportive of you.
00:32:20.000And, you know, you've been so good to our show and at turning point.
00:32:33.000If you don't trust the mail, Charlie, you can track it online or you can drop it off at a voting center and throw a little something in the tip jar because my opponent has spent so far $75 million from the usual suspects, the teachers' union, the public sector unions, Hollywood, big tech.
00:32:48.000They're going to outspend us probably about 10 to 1.
00:32:50.000They're also going to pull all sorts of shenanigans.
00:32:52.000If you see or hear of anything that you think is suspicious, we had a voter integrity project on electelder.com.
00:32:57.000We're going to file lawsuits in a timely fashion so courts can't throw them out claiming that we waited too long.
00:33:56.000It's about Gavin Newsome and his failed leadership.
00:33:59.000I would love to debate Gavin Newsome, by the way, Charlie.
00:34:01.000Feel free to call him up and set it up.
00:34:03.000See if he'll debate me over his record on crime, over his record on homelessness, over his record on the rising cost of living, over his record over the crappy education that black and brown kids are getting K through 12.