00:00:00.000Hey everybody, today on the Charlie Kirk show, final polling shows President Trump and then the margin of error in Pennsylvania.
00:00:06.000Bernie Sanders says a Joe Biden campaign will be a radical leftist takeover, and Joe Biden's closing argument sounds something like gibberish pig Latin.
00:00:15.000That and so much more here in the Charlie Kirk show.
00:01:03.000We will not embrace the ideas that have destroyed countries, destroyed lives, and we are going to fight for freedom on campuses across the country.
00:02:02.000Especially in the last week, I started to see a paradigm shift.
00:02:08.000We started to see data come in through early voting numbers, the final voter registration numbers.
00:02:17.000We started to see our crowds explode in size.
00:02:22.000And last week on Friday, when we finished off the week of the Charlie Kirk Show, I predicted that over the weekend, you were going to see some of this data materialize in the late polling.
00:02:35.000Remember, polling is a lagging indicator.
00:03:27.000We were chatting on Saturday afternoon around 3 or 4 Wisconsin time, Central Time, and we were saying, ah, where is the polling that is reflecting what we're seeing in the early voting data, in the crowds, in the conversations?
00:03:42.000And we both said, remember back in 2016 when the Des Moines Register poll came out?
00:03:48.000I said, yeah, of course I remember that.
00:03:50.000He said, well, it's supposed to come out in a couple hours.
00:03:54.000Now, back in 2016, I was traveling the country with Donald Trump Jr.
00:03:58.000On my personal time, the weekend before the Tuesday shock election.
00:04:02.000We were in Michigan, we were in Wisconsin, we were all across the country.
00:04:07.000And I remember being with Don, and we saw this Des Moines Register poll come through that showed Donald Trump up seven points.
00:04:15.000And I said, Don, if this ends up being correct, we're going to win the Midwest and we could win this election.
00:04:23.000The Des Moines Register poll was the canary in the coal mine for the rural Democrats that were realizing quickly they were losing not just rural voters, but also independent voters.
00:04:40.000So late on Saturday evening, after we got done campaigning in Wisconsin, the Des Moines Register poll came out.
00:04:47.000I must have had at least 15 people texted to me in less than an hour.
00:04:50.000And the Des Moines Register poll, which is considered to be the gold standard of polls, it's just the state poll, just in Iowa.
00:04:56.000It is always done the Saturday evening before the Tuesday election.
00:04:59.000It runs in the Sunday episode of the Des Moines Register.
00:05:04.000Had President Donald Trump up seven points against Joe Biden, identical to 2016.
00:05:11.000In September, this Iowa poll showed Donald Trump and Joe Biden tied 47 to 47.
00:05:19.000The poll of 814 likely Iowa voters was conducted by Seltzer and Company of Des Moines.
00:06:23.000Well, first of all, we learned that the Biden family is currently under federal investigation, which Hunter Biden is and probably his father.
00:07:19.000He has been crisscrossing the country, drawing massive crowds and massive enthusiasm.
00:07:24.000And his message, his closing argument, has been phenomenal.
00:07:30.000The Joe Biden closing argument has been the same old man, old angry man screaming at clouds using pig Latin argument that he's been saying the last couple of weeks, where he just says, everything is awful.
00:07:51.000And give us power because we're really angry about it.
00:07:54.000That's basically the closing argument for Joe Biden.
00:07:57.000If I was running the Biden campaign, which I never would, I would have suggested: why weren't they more positive and big and bold about what America could be?
00:08:08.000It's because a lot, a very substantial part of the Democrat base doesn't want America to be successful, big, or bold.
00:08:17.000They want America to be deconstructed.
00:08:25.000So, this idea of a return to American exceptionalism is something that Joe Biden simply cannot communicate without turning off a major part of the Democrat base.
00:08:38.000And now you're seeing, as Ernest Hemingway would say, this happened gradually than suddenly.
00:08:45.000I've been waiting for this type of a poll for weeks because we started to see this in our travels.
00:08:50.000We started to see this in the work we were doing at Turning Point Action, where normal people that were never involved in politics would show up and they'd say, I feel like I'm losing my country.
00:09:12.000For some of his followers, they do enjoy the entertainment value of President Trump.
00:09:16.000He represents something they can connect to, but it's a lot more sophisticated than that.
00:09:21.000I wrote an entire book about this, the MAGA Doctrine, where President Donald Trump is a singular vessel for all of the combined betrayals, lies, unkept promises, poorly crafted trade deals, foolish immigration policies, corporate pandering.
00:09:52.000And he's also, he's a window into America's future back to strength, prosperity, exceptionalism.
00:10:03.000And an America that truly is the greatest country ever to exist in the history of the world.
00:10:08.000And people are starting to get it very quickly.
00:10:11.000And what happened on Friday is all of a sudden that 8 to 10% of people that were undecided really started to pay attention to President Donald Trump's rallies.
00:10:21.000The president has been on message spot on 10 out of 10.
00:10:25.000He said, I'm going to open up the country safely.
00:11:54.000Joe Biden got a shock poll this weekend showing that he has plummeted to 41% in Iowa despite visiting the state of Iowa recently, spending tens of millions of dollars and also having a competitive Senate race against incumbent Senator Joni Ernst.
00:12:09.000It is becoming more and more clear that Senator Joni Ernst will most likely win the Senate seat.
00:12:16.000The Des Moines Register poll says Trump wins back independence, Biden loses ground with women.
00:12:23.000Isn't that the opposite of what the activist media has been telling us?
00:12:26.000Here's one of the biggest lies about politics, that the way things are a week out of the election is the way that they will stay.
00:12:35.000Stop looking at things monolithically.
00:12:38.000One of the most incredible and admirable traits of President Trump is how he views everything as a potential to improve.
00:12:49.000Iowa was conjectured by Nate Silver and the professional pollsters, who are still predicting a Biden landside, by the way.
00:12:56.000They're still saying that Joe Biden is going to win in a landslide.
00:13:00.000I take great exception with that prediction.
00:13:05.000It's going to vote for a Democrat senator.
00:13:07.000It's kind of a waste of time to even think otherwise.
00:13:10.000Now we have data to show the exact opposite.
00:13:14.000And last evening, we have now seen an ABC News Washington Post poll that Donald Trump is up two in the critical state of Florida.
00:13:22.000President Trump is up in North Carolina.
00:13:26.000And in a shocking turn of events, Joe Biden, who had an average lead in the real clear politics average poll in battleground states of about five to six points, it has now plummeted to 2.9 points on the eve of the election.
00:13:44.000President Donald Trump has regained the polling average in North Carolina, Arizona, and Florida.
00:13:51.000And in 2016, President Donald Trump overperformed the battleground averages in certain states by six points and others by three to four points.
00:14:03.000So what does all this mean going into the day before the election?
00:14:06.000Well, we're learning a lot as early voting data is coming in.
00:14:09.000For example, in the state of Florida, Democrats vastly underperformed in the state of Florida.
00:14:17.000I rarely make predictions this confidently, but I can say with almost 95% certainty that President Donald Trump will win the state of Florida.
00:14:27.000I will be stunned if President Trump does not win Florida.
00:14:30.000And I'm looking at the same data that all the professional pundits and prognosticators are looking at.
00:14:35.000And I went to Nate Silver's blog this morning, and he says Joe Biden has Florida completely and totally signed, sealed, and delivered.
00:14:43.000The fact that Nate Silver is saying that, while I'm also looking at the same data that he has, just goes to show that I'm invalidating any other predictions that Larry Sabadeau or any of these professionals are giving out.
00:14:55.000They know nothing more than an average person looking at this data.
00:14:59.000For example, Miami-Dade County, where President Donald Trump drew 30,000 people last evening, is underperforming with early voting so significantly from 2016.
00:15:11.000It is going to take a Democrat surge on Election Day to compensate for this.
00:15:17.000The 2020 to 2016 early vote gap is a 4.7% advantage.
00:15:25.000In the state of Florida, Democrats lead early voting, in-person early voting, and vote by mail, Republican versus Democrat, not including non-party affiliates, which is NPAs, by 104,000 votes.
00:15:37.000And now Gulf and Bay Counties are allowed to continue to vote today in the panhandle.
00:15:42.000By comparison, in 2016, President Trump won the state by 113,000 votes, and Hillary Clinton led early voting by 96,000 votes.
00:15:52.000Talking to congressmen and my friends in Florida, they anticipated being down 275 to 300,000 early votes in Florida.
00:16:01.000And being down 100,000 with the panhandle, still allowing one extra day for early voting is an ideal scenario.
00:16:07.000Republicans will win same-day voting in Florida by 350 to 400,000 votes, and non-party affiliates, independents in Florida, are trending slightly to President Trump's direction.
00:16:17.000It is becoming almost insurmountable for the Democrats to make up this gap in Florida.
00:16:23.0002020, 2016, in-person early voting in Florida and Miami-Dade County, 14.6% advantage Trump, 75,000 more votes.
00:16:33.000General election, Trump versus Biden versus Jorgensen versus Hawkins in a national poll.
00:16:38.000Again, I don't like national polls, but they can be somewhat instructive to see if there's a trend that we might be missing.
00:16:45.000One week ago, USA Today Suffolk poll had Biden up seven.
00:17:58.000If Joe Biden wins, should another lockdown be on the table?
00:18:02.000Well, hopefully, it doesn't come to that because we will see swift action coordinating with and supporting public health authorities, telling us what we can do as citizens without requiring any kind of mandates.
00:18:14.000But everything has to be on the table in order to keep Americans safe.
00:18:17.000Do you see how Pete Budag thinks he's just smarter than you?
00:18:20.000He uses bigger words than typical politicians.
00:18:23.000What specifically would Joe Biden do differently except lock down the country?
00:18:43.000If Joe Biden wins, should another lockdown be on the table?
00:18:48.000Well, hopefully it doesn't come to that because we will see swift action coordinating with and supporting public health authorities, telling us what we can do as citizens without requiring any kind of mandates.
00:18:59.000But everything has to be on the table in order to keep Americans safe.
00:20:00.000We've been having trouble sleeping the last couple months because we thought you guys might get near power.
00:20:04.000Now you guys are having trouble sleeping.
00:20:07.000When you threaten to shut down the country to a community that owns businesses, understands the value of family, wants open schools, and is appreciative for the greatest country ever to exist in the history of the world, a shutdown message to the Latino community is the exact opposite of what they want to hear.
00:20:27.000I was in Miami, Florida, a couple days ago.
00:20:29.000I spoke to a packed house of Hispanic, Cuban, and Republicans through Turning Point Action.
00:20:35.000And a couple of the Hispanic organizers came up to me and they said, President Donald Trump is winning Hispanic voters because he's more exciting, he's more energizing, and he speaks to the heart and then to the head.
00:20:49.000And what these Hispanic organizers were telling me is this is why they loved Barack Obama so much, is that he was, he gave them hope, he gave them excitement, that Latino and Hispanic voters want the candidate that has the big rallies, the loud music.
00:21:07.000Again, I'm just relaying exactly what they said.
00:21:10.000And they said, in order to win the Hispanic community, you have to show them that you care.
00:21:15.000You have to show them that you have massive support.
00:21:18.000And you can win a massive amount of Hispanic and Latino voters because of that.
00:21:23.000Let's play cut four: Trump on how Biden's cruel lockdown would be devastating for Florida's tourist industry.
00:21:35.000Biden's cruel lockdown would be especially devastating for Florida's tourism and hospitality workers, for the services industry, and for millions of Latinos in Florida, Arizona, Nevada, and all across the country.
00:21:52.000If you want a vaccine to kill the virus, a job to support your family, and freedom to live your life, then you have no choice but to cast your vote for a person named President Trump.
00:22:05.000In a stunning turn of events, the media's fear-mongering around the virus is now not benefiting their narrative.
00:22:12.000Because now that we have seen hospitalization and death rates go down, cases are up, but cases are completely and totally irrelevant to actually getting an understanding of the virus.
00:22:24.000Most people don't even know they have it.
00:22:26.000Most people will survive it with nothing more than symptoms that are mildly annoying.
00:22:33.000It's a very real virus for people in a certain demographic with certain underlying health conditions of a certain age group.
00:22:40.000However, the vast majority of people that will be voting tomorrow want their country reopened quickly and swiftly.
00:22:47.000And so then President Trump rightly plays into the other concerns that people have outside of the virus.
00:22:53.000You see, the Democrats 90 days ago, they probably had a meeting and they thought that the virus would be the one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, and eight issue of every voter, and that will be a referendum on the president's handling of the virus.
00:23:06.000Even though his handling has been fine, they're going to try to politically exploit all the pain.
00:23:10.000But now that we're heading into November and people are realizing that savings are drying up, that jobs are not opening as quickly as they want to with these draconian Democrat lockdowns, the candidate who's talking about opening up the country, crushing the virus correctly, trusting the science, not just the political scientists like Dr. Anthony Fauci, who's a fool.
00:23:34.000That message resonates at a fundamental level with the muscular class.
00:23:41.000And Victor Davis Hansen pinpointed this perfectly a couple weeks ago, where he saw that the people who work at their hands are going to be the people that re-elect President Trump because they're the ones that are actually seeing the hours cut back.
00:23:54.000They're the ones that are seeing the job openings no longer being posted.
00:23:58.000They're the ones that are not getting the callbacks from employers.
00:24:01.000They're the ones that actually have to do the grunt work.
00:24:03.000While the Zoom and Skype class, the upper-middle-class white liberals, they have the luxury of being able to have Amazon products delivered to their home.
00:24:12.000They have the luxury of being able to call the shots with plenty of money in the bank, plenty of savings, and plenty of institutional capital that gives them an advantage to tell other people to sit down and shut up and let's go give people like Pete Buttichech and Joe Biden power.
00:24:29.000Hispanic and Latino voters comprise most of the American middle class and the working class.
00:24:35.000Republicans have always failed to message the Latino and Hispanic voters.
00:24:40.000And amazingly, the president has not changed one position on immigration, and yet he's winning a massive amount of Hispanic and Latino voters.
00:24:50.000And I think it's going to be even greater on Tuesday than people realize.
00:24:55.000It's also because the Latino and the Hispanic communities, they're communities of faith, they're Catholic communities, they're pro-life, and they actually have deep appreciation and respect for this new country that some of them are in.
00:25:10.000It might be first generation, second generation.
00:25:13.000And when they hear the narratives of Kamala Harris and Joe Biden and BLM Incorporated about how awful this country is, many of the immigrants that have come here legally from Venezuela or Argentina, Nicaragua, Guatemala, El Salvador, they're kind of like, wait a second, you don't know bad.
00:25:35.000And this kind of goes to a theory that we had a couple months ago: that the Democrats are going to take certain constituencies for granted, and it might just all intersect at a pressure point that will hurt them politically.
00:25:50.000You look at these Miami-Dade County numbers, they are devastating for Joe Biden's Florida chances.
00:25:57.000And yet, the political pundits and prognosticators say, well, what about the polls?
00:26:01.000Well, you have to change the polling inputs to actually reflect what the turnout is going to look like on Election Day.
00:26:09.000Now that we see that the early voting base in Miami-Dade County has basically evaporated, where they are down 14% in in-person early voting and they're down 4% in vote-by-mail voting in Miami-Dade County, the Democrat stronghold.
00:26:25.000And the Democrat advantage is only 403 votes for in-person early voting.
00:26:31.000And Hispanics and Latinos comprised a vast number.
00:26:36.000I don't want to say majority, but I was told it was a significant amount of the rally attendees last evening.
00:26:41.000And you have Joe Biden and Kamala Harris that are talking about post-birth abortion and anti-Catholic values and shutting down the country again.
00:26:50.000Don't be stunned when all of a sudden the hardworking backbone of our country starts to retaliate.
00:27:01.000And this just goes to show someone's going to be very wrong and very right on Wednesday.
00:27:08.000TheHill.com just said that Democrats are writing a blue wave that have them positioned to sweep back the Senate majority and the White House on Tuesday.
00:27:19.000It's hard for me to comprehend what data they're looking at.
00:27:24.000They are so incredibly cocky and they are just self-reinforcing their own Twitter feeds that they have believed no matter what, they're going to get in power because of how much I hate Trump, or they refuse to actually look at what's happening in real time.
00:27:42.000The polling becomes less and less relevant the more we actually see early voting data turnout and what is needed for a certain candidate to win.
00:27:52.000For example, according to a CBS poll, a lag in early voting is awful news for Democrats.
00:28:01.000But how about people that have say they plan to vote on Election Day?
00:28:05.000According to CBS, which then you can add probably 10 points to this number, 69% of people that say they are going to vote on Election Day, 69% say they're going to vote for President Donald Trump.
00:28:17.000And that number is increasing by the hour.
00:28:19.000The more rallies President Trump does, the more visible he is.
00:28:23.000And the more he repeats the argument that I'm going to reopen the country and Biden will close the country, that number will only increase.
00:28:31.000President Donald Trump is now within the margin of error in Pennsylvania.
00:28:36.000The last four polls, three out of four, show President Donald Trump leading in the critical battleground state of Pennsylvania.
00:28:44.000The Real Clear Politics average has Joe Biden by 2.9 points of a blend of the last polls.
00:28:51.000The Susquehanna poll has Donald Trump up one point in Pennsylvania.
00:28:55.000The Trafalgar Group has Donald Trump up two points in Pennsylvania.
00:28:59.000And Insider Advantage has Donald Trump up two points in Pennsylvania.
00:29:03.000Most of this is led by a surge by Donald Trump, but also a plummeting number for Joe Biden.
00:29:10.000Joe Biden has to have record turnout in urban areas and absolutely win the suburbs in convincing fashion.
00:29:19.000Philadelphia is not showing up in big numbers, and President Donald Trump is actually showing a record amount of support from black voters and Hispanic voters.
00:29:31.000I'm going to be really direct with you guys.
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00:30:23.000And a lot of these professional pundits and prognosticators, they could be right, but it would be against every single leading trend that I am sharing with you.
00:30:34.000And a recent Susquehanna poll shows Donald Trump up one point in the critical battleground state of Florida.
00:30:40.000You couple that with Miami-Dade County not showing up and the Republican strongholds punching above their weight.
00:30:46.000I believe that President Donald Trump will secure victory in the great state of Florida.
00:30:51.000In the critical battleground state of Ohio, two polls show Donald Trump up five points in Ohio, the Trafalgar Group, and four points by Rasmussen.
00:31:00.000Ohio has always kind of been a given for President Trump.
00:31:03.000It is one of his strongest states, rural, industrial, manufacturing, fracking in Southeast Ohio.
00:31:10.000And a new poll out of Georgia, three new polls out of Georgia.
00:31:13.000WSBTV Landmark show Donald Trump up one.
00:31:47.000However, the blustering bloviators on television that are so incredibly convinced that Donald Trump will lose tell me one of two things.
00:31:58.000Number one, they want these polls to show a big gap.
00:32:02.000So if Trump wins, they can invalidate it and say he cheated, he stole, it was disinformation or foreign interference, which would just sow the seeds of chaos in our country.
00:32:11.000Or number two, they look at these polls as tactics and their narratives as tactics to try and impact human behavior to try and not have you show up tomorrow.
00:32:24.000For every single human being watching this, you must show up tomorrow.
00:32:28.000You must empty your phone and peer-to-peer text message everyone in your phone right now to go vote for President Donald Trump and Republicans up and down the ballot.
00:32:38.000It's filling in a couple bubbles, everybody, with ours next to them and then going home.
00:32:42.000We're not asking you to go storm Normandy Beach.
00:33:40.000We could not have dreamed a month ago to be doing this well in early voting and this well with voter registration and this well with polling.
00:33:49.000President Donald Trump is in the margin of error or leading in every single state that he needs to win the White House.
00:34:09.000This is the last mechanism that we have in a free society to check against corporate tyranny, cultural tyranny, and leftist domination of all of our institutions.
00:34:20.000President Donald Trump is closing strong.
00:35:37.000They have no confidence in big tech, and they're tired, very tired of cancel culture.
00:35:43.000They're tired of being told what to think and what to do.
00:35:46.000President Donald Trump is the ambassador, is the representative of free speech.
00:35:54.000President Donald Trump is actually fighting more for the ideas that people on the liberal left think they believe in than any other candidate.
00:36:05.000Meanwhile, Hunter Biden is still under active federal investigation from the Federal Bureau of Investigation, as is his associates, which could be Joe Biden.
00:36:15.000And President Donald Trump is surging in every single publicly available poll.
00:36:20.000Do we have Cut 23 where Bernie Sanders makes it clear who's going to be in charge?
00:36:45.000Good luck winning swing voters in Pennsylvania with that.
00:36:48.000As he is on a Zoom call with the author of the Green New Deal and Lady Gaga, who is campaigning in Pennsylvania, she's an artist against fracking.
00:39:20.000In every single state that matters, President Donald Trump is doing better than he was in 2016 with more voters showing up in support of him, bigger crowds, more enthusiasm, more consolidated support, more unified message with a candidate who literally is not campaigning.
00:39:37.000Remember, Hillary Clinton ended Pennsylvania in Philadelphia, her campaign in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, with Barack Obama, and 75,000 people showed up in support of her campaign.
00:39:47.000It was legitimate and it was pretty overwhelming.
00:39:50.000Joe Biden will draw maybe a couple hundred people that honk their horns at him today relentlessly.
00:39:55.000My call to action, everybody, take out your phone and peer-to-peer text message.
00:39:59.000Text all of your friends right now while you're supporting Trump.
00:40:02.000Make one social media post today while you're doing that.