00:01:03.000His spirit, his love of this country, he's done an amazing job building one of the most powerful youth organizations ever created, Turning Point USA.
00:01:12.000We will not embrace the ideas that have destroyed countries, destroyed lives, and we are going to fight for freedom on campuses across the country.
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00:02:59.000So I try not to obsess over all the polls and the shock jock style of cable news punditry that happens so often on CNN or even some of these clickbait websites.
00:03:15.000There's an old quote from Ernest Hemingway that says, things happen gradually then suddenly.
00:03:21.000I look at trends more than specific polls at a specific time.
00:03:26.000And right now, I'm seeing some trends that should give you some optimism.
00:03:31.000In almost every single trend line that I care about, especially in the battleground states, President Donald Trump has had an unmistakable increase, a positive increase, in just the last couple of weeks.
00:03:44.000And Biden is trending in the wrong direction.
00:03:47.000Remember, in 1988, in early August, there's a New York Times article that said this, Michael Dukakis was leading then Vice President of the United States, George H.W. Bush, between 13 to 17 points.
00:04:03.000So the media, they are using polling as a reason to try to suppress popular opinion and suppress support for President Donald Trump.
00:04:11.000However, there was an article today on CNN.com and it was on the front page of Real Clear Politics.
00:04:18.000It said focus groups show Midwest swing voters solidly behind Trump.
00:04:24.000So in the last week, I've had the opportunity to travel the Midwest and travel to Florida, almost doing informal focus groups and listening sessions with voters that are actually going to determine this next election.
00:04:36.000I've been asking them what issues matter the most to them, what they're seeing and hearing.
00:04:40.000And something I heard from four separate individuals, which were all female voters, they're center-right voters.
00:04:47.000They all said that they do not like Donald Trump's tone.
00:04:50.000They don't like his approach or his style, but they do think he's done good for the country policy-wise.
00:04:56.000This is a very commonly held belief in the suburbs of America.
00:05:00.000And if Donald Trump can communicate that his policy should supersede the style, I think he'll be very successful.
00:05:06.000But all four of them said that the recent ad that was cut and published by Donald Trump's campaign resonated with them on such a personal level that they will assuredly vote for Donald Trump.
00:05:53.000Donald Trump should just run that ad nonstop from now to the election.
00:05:57.000It instills a very real sense of fear to the battleground voter in Michigan or Wisconsin or Florida.
00:06:03.000When I was just in Michigan for a little under five hours, I drove in and spoke at an event in Holland, Michigan and drove back to Chicago.
00:06:10.000I stopped at a Burger King, and I saw on the television that ad twice in less than 30 minutes.
00:06:17.000And so we're seeing right now new polling that actually shows Donald Trump within the margin of error in states like Pennsylvania.
00:06:25.000A recent poll in Pennsylvania has Donald Trump only down two points.
00:06:29.000Now, the average has Donald Trump down anywhere between five or six points.
00:06:34.000But this recent poll by CNBC and Change Research, which is actually a Democrat polling firm, has Biden only up by two points in the state of Pennsylvania.
00:06:44.000Now, the survey pool was less likely voters than other recent polls of 382 likely voters.
00:06:52.000But the other poll in Pennsylvania, Gravis, was 1,000 likely voters done by Gravis Marketing that had Donald Trump down by only three points.
00:07:02.000Now, we have to understand trend lines.
00:07:04.000The election is not going to be held as you're listening to this podcast.
00:07:07.000It's not going to be held next week, and it's not even going to be held next month.
00:07:38.000I think that things are going to get better in the next 30 days and even better in the next 60 days.
00:07:43.000I think that more people are waking up to the cheap proven by some scientists' observation method of using hydroxychloroquine.
00:07:51.000And if you don't believe me, just listen to our episode with the nine doctors that we had that spoke out against this.
00:07:58.000And so if the virus is going to improve by relative terms, that helps Donald Trump and hurts Joe Biden.
00:08:06.000I also believe that if the rumors are true and Joe Biden does indeed select Senator Harris from California, I think you are going to see a five to seven point bump for Donald Trump.
00:08:18.000Because all of a sudden, Joe Biden is no longer just the kind of confused, happy-go-lucky guy from Scranton, Pennsylvania.
00:08:25.000All of a sudden, there is a snarly, divisive, gun-grabbing, Marxist face to the Democrat Party that manifests all of the radicalism in someone that, quite honestly, has been a political opportunist for her entire career, Senator Harris.
00:08:43.000Now, there's a reason why Joe Biden and his campaign are taking so long to pick their vice president.
00:08:48.000And some sources say that the vice president's election will be happening next week.
00:08:53.000Now, if it does happen next week, and it is Senator Harris, Midwestern voters want nothing to do with a California senator who very well might become president of the United States.
00:09:03.000This election will now become a referendum on the soon-to-be president because of Joe Biden's imminent mental decline and cognitive challenges and Donald Trump.
00:09:38.000And that's really kind of an ironic twist for the Joe Biden campaign.
00:09:41.000He wants to defund the police, and then he puts a cop as his vice president.
00:09:44.000I'm not really sure how he's going to square that with the base of the Democrat Party.
00:09:48.000And you actually see some very promising trend lines.
00:09:51.000In the suburbs of America, defund police has an 85% negative rating.
00:09:58.000Suburban America, which is going to determine the election in many of these states and probably the entire presidential election, which used to be a reliably Republican part of these key battleground states, has now recently turned more Democrat.
00:10:14.000If they believe that the police will be defunded and suburban America will be put in complete jeopardy, a lot of them are going to trend towards Donald Trump.
00:10:22.000Rural America already supports President Trump enthusiastically, and I think they are going to show up in great numbers, and President Trump has to continue to communicate and try to build up their enthusiasm and their support.
00:10:35.000So in every single one of the Battleground State polls, Donald Trump is trending in the correct direction.
00:10:42.000And so I think you're actually going to see a perfect storm in the favor of Donald Trump.
00:10:46.000If he can actually win the COVID primary, and that's basically what this is, if Donald Trump can win the month of August and at the end of August, be able to say hospitalizations and deaths are at least stable or going in the right direction, he will be in a dramatically better position in early September than he is now.
00:11:06.000Whether you're working from home or working on your fitness, you want to know what you're listening to to be actually what you're listening to, not what your roommates or your neighbors or the garbage that your left-wing neighbor might be listening to.
00:11:18.000If they're listening to Rachel Maddow, you need to be able to tune it out.
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00:11:44.000Their newest model, the Everyday E25 earbud, are the best ones yet, with six hours of playtime, seamless Bluetooth pairing, more bass, more compact design that gives you a nice noise-isolating fit.
00:11:54.000Raycon's wireless earbuds are incredibly comfortable, perfect for conference calls or binging podcasts.
00:12:00.000Unlike some of your other wireless options, Raycon earbuds are both stylish and discreet, with no dangling wires or stems to distract anyone during video calls.
00:12:07.000You've heard me talk about how the company was founded by Ray J and Cardi B, she's a criminal, but she's a nice person, are obsessed with Raycons.
00:12:16.000Pick up a pair and see what the hype is all about.
00:12:28.000Now, remember, there is a consolidation of Republican support that is always late-breaking.
00:12:35.000Democrats rarely ever are late-breaking candidates, almost never.
00:12:39.000They consolidate their identity politic groups early, they boost turnout, they ballot harvest, and they hope that Republicans don't show up.
00:12:47.000Republicans are very reliant on decent, reasonable people breaking in their direction in the last couple of weeks of a presidential campaign.
00:12:55.000That is why Ronald Reagan in 1980 was down 10 points on a lot of the tracking polls weeks before the election.
00:13:01.000And may he rest in peace, my dear friend Pat Cadell, who was the pollster for President Jimmy Carter, he said he saw a tsunami of new polls coming in the last four or five days that showed the Reagan Revolution woke up in a moment's notice and brought Ronald Reagan to the presidency.
00:13:18.000We also have to look at what are the major issues that are going to determine the election.
00:13:23.000If President Trump can win the COVID primary or the Chinese coronavirus primary, and in early September be able to show positive economic numbers, be able to show that deaths and hospitalizations are hopefully going down, he can then focus on the radicalism that will probably and almost assuredly be on the Democrat ballot.
00:13:42.000This should be a referendum on Senator Kamala Harris's worldview.
00:13:46.000And the Democrats might back themselves into an argument they are not prepared to have.
00:13:51.000The Joe Biden campaign has been very successful because Joe Biden is built into the memory of a lot of Americans as being a very decent and very reasonable and moderate U.S. senator and vice president, which is, of course, nonsense and garbage, but it's hard to persuade people of that image because they've had it for a couple of decades.
00:14:08.000Now, I think Joe Biden's favorability can probably go down another five to six points.
00:14:12.000However, Senator Kamala Harris, she is detested in the heartland of this country.0.98
00:14:18.000Her worldview, I should say, personally, as well.0.86
00:14:21.000And those numbers are not going to go up anytime soon amongst swing voters in the Midwest.
00:14:26.000Right now, if Pennsylvania is within three points, make no mistake, that means Donald Trump is up four points in the state of Pennsylvania.
00:14:33.000That is two independent polls that show Donald Trump within the margin of error of Pennsylvania.
00:14:40.000This is amazing news, considering this is one of the hardest, toughest moments for President Trump that a president has had in the last couple decades, dealing with the virus, the race riots, and an answer to all of that.
00:14:52.000And so I think it's actually time that we admit we are due for a break, that we reasonable Americans are actually due for something breaking in our direction.
00:16:11.000I represent a philosophy and I represent a movement of stability, of decent families being able to flourish without having to worry about crime and arson and our history being burned down.
00:16:23.000And my opponent is a figurehead for a movement that wants to rip our country apart from within and delete everything that we represent.
00:16:30.000I actually think the more the president makes it about big picture ideas and less about himself personally, I think the more successful he's going to be.
00:16:38.000And not even about policies and not even about laws.
00:16:41.000I actually think it has to be a referendum in some ways on Joe Biden and his worldview, a referendum on the Democrat mayors all across the country, a referendum on the kind of ideas that they're trying to make mainstream in our country.
00:16:56.000I've been traveling a lot, as I just said, talking to decent common sense Americans that would never march in a protest, that are far too reasonable to ever engage in a boycott of a business.
00:17:08.000They're waiting for something to do to show that they're upset.
00:17:12.000There are millions of people out there that are just waiting patiently, and they are decent people, that are saying, you tell me when I'll be the first one in the voting booth, and you better believe I'm going to vote for someone who is the decent and reasonable candidate.
00:17:26.000I think the Biden campaign is actually seeing tracking polling that is troubling them.
00:17:32.000I think they're seeing very low enthusiasm.
00:17:34.000I think they're seeing decaying support in the black community because Joe Biden has said people are not black if they do not support him, something a KKK leader would have said in the 1870s.
00:17:44.000You're not a black person unless you support me.
00:17:54.000When I travel the country and I turn on Fox News, Biden is running ads on Fox News all across the country.
00:18:01.000Biden's path to victory is trying to peel away Republican voters into the Democrat column.
00:18:07.000Hard argument, hard plane to land.0.98
00:18:10.000If you have a radical vice president nominee, that is Kamala Harris, that could presumptively be the president of the United States.
00:18:16.000So I'm looking at this polling: Donald Trump up a point and a half in Iowa, in Michigan.
00:18:22.000Joe Biden has fallen six points in the latest tracking poll in Michigan.
00:18:26.000Donald Trump, in Texas, Donald Trump up 0.2%, which honestly is alarmingly close.
00:18:33.000That's a longer-term, you know, more structural fault line that we can address at a different time.
00:18:38.000And a new Cato Institute poll said that 72% of conservatives are afraid to speak out.
00:18:43.000And Battleground State polling is showing time and time again that decent, reasonable Americans, people that have three kids, that can't go to church, that might own a couple firearms, that go on a vacation and they earn $85,000 a year, they are worried that a common way of life, a stable society, will be ripped underneath them instantaneously and immediately, for very good reason, by the way.
00:19:12.000And so we look at the state of Arizona.
00:19:15.000Two weeks ago, Biden was up five points in the state of Arizona.
00:19:19.000Now a Democrat poll commissioned by CNBC and Change Research, which is a Democrat research polling, has Joe Biden up only two points.
00:19:28.000And we know that if Joe Biden is up to, Donald Trump is actually up to because of enthusiasm and lake breakers going in Donald Trump's column.
00:19:37.000So I come here as an ambassador of positivity.
00:19:39.000Not that we're going to win assuredly, but you have to almost throw the receiver open to use a football analogy.
00:19:45.000It might look like the wide receiver is completely covered, but wait three and a half seconds and it's going to be nothing but endless yardage to be able to get a touchdown.
00:20:03.000And I think that if we are able to make a very coherent and cogent argument that the president is the ambassador of decent America, of a stable life for reasonable people, and Joe Biden represents a movement.
00:20:18.000Joe Biden's actually very popular, believe it or not.
00:20:20.000Despite his touching of young girls and embezzling money from China and palling around with Ted Kennedy and covering from Obama's thuggery, I think some of that will be communicated.
00:20:29.000I think Joe Biden's favorability will go down by three or four points.
00:20:35.000But what's different is that the left has shown their colors far more in the last four years than they did the years prior to Hillary Clinton.
00:20:41.000That was a referendum on Hillary Clinton.
00:20:43.000The 2020 election should be a referendum on the American left.
00:20:47.000So we must look at 2016 versus 2020.0.99
00:20:51.000Hillary Clinton was totally detested.1.00
00:20:54.000The only person that might actually be as unlikable as Hillary Clinton might be Senator Kamala Harris.
00:21:00.000People that are in Wisconsin, that might have called themselves a Democrat 10 years ago, that go to church and they just want to raise a family, they do not want a gun-grabbing California senator who is nothing but a political opportunist, the former attorney general of California who instituted the most anti-Christian, anti-religious liberty orders to all of a sudden become the heir apparent to the White House.
00:21:26.000If he ends up picking Kamala Harris, I can convince every Christian on the planet, God willing, to go vote for Donald Trump.
00:21:34.00082%, according to the Washington Post, 82% of Christians support Donald Trump, evangelical Christians, I should say.
00:21:40.000I think that number will go up by 10 points if Senator Kamala Harris ends up being the nominee.
00:21:45.000Now, Joe Biden is in a very difficult position because he has said, I am going to pick a woman for my running mate.
00:21:53.000Now, it's a difficult position because, first of all, they're actually admitting that there are two genders and that they are admitting that there are differences between men and women.
00:22:02.000However, regardless of that, Joe Biden's also in a difficult position because every single woman in the Democrat Party just so happens to be a radical Marxist.
00:22:10.000They don't exactly have moderate Democrat women in leadership that might actually be likely to be a vice presidential nominee.
00:22:20.000So when Senator Harris was still a candidate and people saw her every single day on cable television and she went after Justice Brett Kavanaugh more aggressively than any other senator, let's make this a referendum on Brett Kavanaugh.
00:22:36.000Let's make this a referendum on the behavior of the Senate Democrats and how they went after every single one of us.
00:22:43.000And by the way, the options for Joe Biden are running thin.
00:22:46.000I think it's very likely that it will be Senator Harris.
00:22:48.000The Whisper campaign has kind of built a cushion around the idea of Senator Harris.
00:22:53.000Politico even had a page where it said, Joe Biden's running mate is Kamala Harris, as if they were leaked that information first and they knew it and they had the landing page all created for that.
00:23:01.000The other candidates that are in the running are Senator Elizabeth Warren, which would be a double dream.
00:23:08.000It would be one of the greatest scenarios we could possibly imagine.
00:23:11.000So Joe Biden is really stuck in a difficult position, a position that Donald Trump does not have to encounter himself.
00:23:19.000So the next 30 days, you got Joe Biden that has a very difficult position and a place to choose as vice president.
00:23:25.000And Donald Trump has to get through the COVID nonsense, the Chinese coronavirus, and everything that surrounds that.
00:23:31.000If Joe Biden selects a mainstream, boring Democrat, then all of a sudden he is going to be faced with an enthusiasm problem and potentially a base revolt within the Democrat Party and unable to build the broad-based Obama-style coalition that boosted black turnout and boosted turnout amongst younger voters.
00:23:50.000And I can tell you right now, younger voters are not going to come out in big numbers for Joe Biden or Senator Harris.
00:24:00.000They are looking at the same enthusiasm data that we are looking at.
00:24:02.000They are seeing the trend lines go in the wrong direction.
00:24:05.000They are seeing Joe Biden's favorability numbers in Arizona that I'm looking right at right now looks like the stock market after we lock down our country.
00:24:16.000I mean, it is going in a direction that if it has sustained itself and there is not a basement, it's not good.
00:24:21.000I mean, you extrapolate some of these data sets over the next 30 days, even at half of a percentage, if that continues, all of a sudden, the trend lines will be reversed.
00:24:34.000Not incredible news that Donald Trump is going to win, but maybe reasonable people are starting to see the differences between the two distinct governing styles.
00:24:47.000It takes 30 to 60 days for a message really to set in, if you think about it.
00:25:47.000Do not go after Christians and be very critical of John Roberts.
00:25:50.000That's basically what you have to do for the conservative base.
00:25:54.000The more you repeat law and order, the more you repeat civil society, the better.
00:25:58.000To win voters in the middle, continue to communicate that Joe Biden is the leader and the figurehead for an incredibly divisive movement that does not represent Midwestern values.
00:26:11.000That's basically what this election is now going to come down to.
00:26:14.000A collection of three or four Midwestern states and Florida and North Carolina and Arizona.
00:26:19.000It's a five-state race, and Joe Biden has a lot of trouble that he has to explain away.
00:26:25.000Because at some point between now and the election, Joe Biden is going to be forced to have to talk unedited, uninterrupted, for more than 10 minutes, maybe 20.
00:26:39.000This is something that, in fact, I would be so terrified of.
00:26:43.000You have a candidate that actually cannot cohesively be able to make an argument for more than 15 or 20 minutes without blundering or making such a fatal error in communication that it looks as if he is not equipped to become president of the United States.
00:26:58.000So, and Donald Trump also, the more he is able to point forward and say, in the next four years, we will be able to do something specific.
00:27:07.000And we've talked about this on the podcast, what that looks like, thinking big and dreaming big.
00:27:50.000According to the American Principles Project, it said, should big tech companies such as Google, Facebook, and Twitter be allowed to censor a speech on their platform if that speech would otherwise be constitutionally protected in the public square?
00:28:09.000I mean, you can't have 60% of people agree on anything in some of these states.
00:28:12.000So listen to our sister episode where we talk about this in great depth, where we talk about big tech censorship and what we can do to actually address this issue, where we go into the hearings on Capitol Hill.
00:28:38.000And you have to factor in at least 50,000 fake votes between the states that are peppered in through dead people and Democrat tactics and all the things that they do to try to get Democrats elected.
00:28:47.000And we've had Tom Fitton talk about voter fraud at length here on the Charlie Kirk Show.