In this episode, Andrew Colvin is joined by Rich Beres of the Public Polling Project and Mark Mitchell of Rasmussen to discuss the impact of the Democratic Debates, and what we can expect to see from a bounce in the polls, including a potential bounce in support from Independents. They also discuss what they are seeing from independent voters, and why they think Joe Biden is a better choice than Donald Trump in the 2020 election. Finally, the guys discuss the new Pfizer drug, and the impact it could have on the economy and the economy in general, and whether it will have a negative impact on inflation and the possibility of higher interest rates, as well as what it could mean for the economy, and how it could impact the economy. This episode is a must listen to, and a must-listen to. Please consider joining Memberscharliekirk.co/joinnow. You keep us bold, proud, loud, and unafraid of boycotts, censorship, and all the other benefits that we pack into memberships. Thank you, members. - Charlie and his staff. Subscribe to the show today! You get access to the latest episodes of The Charlie Kirk Show, every Monday morning, wherever you get your favorite shows, every Wednesday morning. If you like what you listen, you get a new episode of the show, every Tuesday morning at 7am Eastern Standard Time. Thanks for listening to The Charlie Kirker Show! - Your host, Charlie Kirk and much more! - Thank you for listening and supporting The Charlie and Good Morning America? - Cheers, Charlie & Good Morning Charlie! - Cheers! - Your continued support is much appreciated! - Eternally grateful! - Teddy and Good Luck! - Charlie, Kristy, Andrew, Timestamps: - Chuck Colvin - The Best of the Best Political Podcasts - Thank You, Charlie, - Kristy & Mark Mitchell - Good Luck, Timestories: Thank You for listening? - Please consider becoming a Member of the Charlie Kirk Podcast? - Thank Me, Thank You For Listening, Charlie and Thank You & Good Luck Me Out? - Best Regards, Cheers - Teddy, Timed? - Timestaffing Me, Chuck, Best Effed Me, Best of Your Support, Brett, and Best Effort, Sarah, Rory,
00:00:04.000This is a phenomenal, phenomenal analysis episode.
00:00:07.000We have two pollsters, Rich Beres, Big Data Poll, and Mark Mitchell from Rasmussen.
00:00:12.000We talk about what we can expect to see, a bounce, any bounce, what's happening with independents, All of the polling analysis you could possibly want is crammed into this episode.
00:00:59.000He's done an amazing job building one of the most powerful youth organizations ever created, Turning Point USA.
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00:01:43.000We are honored to be joined by Rich Beres, Big Data Poll, the People's Pundit, and I want to make sure I give Rich an opportunity to talk about the Public Polling Project.
00:01:52.000Rich Beres, welcome to the Charlie Kirk Show, brother.
00:01:55.000Hey, thanks for having me as always, Andrew.
00:02:55.000That being said, going into this, I mean, obviously it was going to be a three-on-one.
00:03:00.000The head of ABC News is a friend of Kamala Harris, introduced her to her husband.
00:03:05.000I mean, for people who don't know how incestuous this relationship is, So I just don't know why he's not taking the opportunities and a unique position, if you're going to debate, to reform this process because it badly needs reformation.
00:03:40.000It's the same media who just did that, who just was lying, just got exposed, lying to the public about Joe Biden being senile.
00:03:48.000So they really didn't anticipate that there could be a backfire there.
00:03:53.000And then secondly, we're talking to voters now.
00:03:57.000Reuters had a poll, not a poll, a focus group.
00:04:01.000You're seeing all these focus groups on CNN.
00:04:04.000I want to give it a little bit more time, but these undecided voters that were in our poll that we sent you, out of the 200 plus that we had asked whether they would watch the debate, nearly 88% said that they would, which I don't believe, but they said they would.
00:04:19.000Uh, we asked them if we could contact them again and ask them about their thoughts on the debate.
00:04:23.000That is looking very good for Donald Trump.
00:04:26.000So far, you know, only about 50, uh, the, you know, 200 or so, um, have responded, but the margin on whether like, forget about who you think won.
00:04:45.000And honestly, the undecided number is very small now.
00:04:50.000I mean, it was already not huge, but of those who said they were undecided, now it's even smaller and it's going like two to one for Donald Trump.
00:04:59.000This is very bad if this turns out to be the actual data.
00:05:03.000This is a very weird phenomenon that we have somebody that people basically say won the In the traditional sense, like how pundits and Washington talking heads gauge these things.
00:05:26.000I would say she won the debate, you know, but what, what matters more than what people tell you who won, who lost is how it really moved the needle.
00:05:34.000And there are two things that we're hearing from these people.
00:07:03.000If a, if a journalist asked a question that she doesn't like, or she doesn't want to have to answer, She just does that cackle and then kind of comes back with a smart-ass comment.
00:07:12.000Pardon my French, you know, but that's what she does.
00:07:15.000And I think during debate prep, they told her, Kamala, no cackling.
00:07:20.000And when she was holding the cackle back, we were getting these faces.
00:07:24.000You know these, I mean, go back and re-watch the debate, folks.
00:07:27.000I played a couple clips of it on my show today.
00:07:30.000That is not what you do when you're trying to win people over, you know, and I think she came across like, you know, for instance, black men under the age of 45 were concerned that she was this, and I think she showed them that that is what she is, and or at least affirmed it.
00:07:47.000And then the second problem is very simple, and we're hearing this a lot from people where We're thinking are like really, truly persuadable.
00:07:53.000Most undecideds now are actually men or were, and the women that were left, Kamala needs to win.
00:08:00.000It is because women were more undecided when Biden was still in the race.
00:08:03.000That's why Biden gained with undecideds and it's been completely turned on its head now.
00:08:09.000The undecideds are more male and they're breaking for Trump and he gains against Kamala.
00:08:14.000So it's total reverse from what it was, you know, the dynamic of the race before with Biden.
00:08:19.000And I think those men are going to go out the window, but those women that she needed to win over were really like kind of looking for an excuse not to vote for Donald Trump, but acknowledge that life was better under Donald Trump than it is now in the United States of America.
00:08:35.000And it was less war, and it was more prosperity.
00:08:37.000And they were like, you know, hoping beyond hope.
00:08:41.000Like, give me a reason to vote for you.
00:09:50.000This will be one of the greatest mistakes in history for them to allow, and I think they probably did it because they think they're going to get votes, but it's not worth it because they're destroying the fabric of our country by what they've done.
00:10:03.000There's never been anything done like this at all.
00:10:06.000They've destroyed the fabric of our country.
00:10:09.000Millions of people let in, and all over the world.
00:10:12.000Crime is down all over the world except here.
00:10:15.000Crime here is up and through the roof, despite their fraudulent statements that they made.
00:10:20.000Crime in this country is through the roof, and we have a new form of crime.
00:10:24.000It's called migrant crime, and it's happening at levels that nobody thought possible.
00:10:29.000Rich, if you saw that, you know, for those listening, there's an independent bar and a Republican bar.
00:10:34.000A couple of instances, the independents were more enthusiastic about what Trump was saying than the Republicans.
00:10:41.000And, you know, later on in that commentary, the same analyst says, we haven't seen this phenomenon since 2016.
00:10:47.000In 2020, it was all over the place like spaghetti lines.
00:10:50.000And in 2016, we saw the same phenomenon.
00:12:32.000But, you know, last month, not the poll we just did, but the one before that, we kind of saw like an inflate because there was a bad response bias in the data.
00:12:40.000So we saw an inflation of independents or Democratic-leaning independents.
00:12:45.000So independents are really when you ask them and push them, they lean more to the Democratic Party.
00:12:49.000Now it's ironed out again back to closer to what we had seen for like the entire year plus.
00:12:55.000Uh, so that we wouldn't expect Kamala Harris's entry into the race to change those fundamentals.
00:13:00.000And I will say this, this is what she didn't do with those voters last night.
00:13:04.000In response to that, she did not give an answer, Andrew, about like what she intended to do to stop that.
00:13:11.000Because they basically are tracking, I mean, not basically, they are tracking right along with the Republicans, but instead she gave them a reason why not to vote for Trump over it.
00:13:20.000So that's what she did all night long, and that's not what voters wanted to hear.
00:13:24.000Listen to this from the Reuters panel, then I'm going to give you something from ours, okay?
00:13:28.000This guy, Robert Wheeler, 48, security firm executive in Nevada, he was leaning to Harris.
00:13:33.000He's a voter, like the woman I'm about to read you from ours, who when you pushed her would say, yeah, okay, I'm undecided, but I think I'm leaning to Harris.
00:17:10.000She comes out with a big bang, she gets a big She looks the part, she checks the boxes, and then she opens her mouth and people start realizing there's nothing there.
00:17:22.000Yeah, so what we're basically trying to do, Andrew, is change how this stuff is done.
00:17:29.000Gone are the days of the Trump plus ones, Biden plus ones.
00:17:33.000In order to keep them honest, we have to be transparent like anything else in government, business, and in life.
00:17:40.000Sunlight is the best disinfectant from this garbage disease in the polling industry we've been Dealing with.
00:17:46.000So what it is, is it's basically funded by viewers, listeners, people who, you know, see it shared by their friends and whatnot.
00:17:53.000And they can go and fund the Rust Belt poll, which is the big three.
00:17:56.000Now it was the big six, but might as well be the big three.
00:18:11.000People have less money now than they did in 2020 that it wouldn't fund, but so far we're doing really well and I'd like to very much keep up that momentum.
00:18:20.000If they go to bigdatapoll.com or on my locals page where it says support our polls, a little hand waving, they can learn more about it and they can definitely just go to bigdatapoll.com and they'll see it in the menu.
00:18:31.000They can click on it and check it out.
00:18:33.000Support it, share it far and wide, help it stay successful, and we'll try to keep them honest.
00:18:42.000It's more important now to support the good guys than ever, especially when you see the media bias like we did in that debate last night where it was three on one.
00:18:51.000Rich, I want to play a clip here from one of these focus groups that we saw last night.
00:18:58.000There's one clip in particular that I'm looking for.
00:19:02.000Where it was, I think, so emblematic of what we saw last night where it was like, you know, yeah, he was basically exaggerating some things, but then this other lady says, you know, it really didn't matter.
00:19:58.000Yeah, I think that, you know, the late, great Rush Limbaugh used to have this phenomenon of like MAGA and Trump's appeal attitudinally and policy-wise.
00:20:18.000And it doesn't matter if he gets the number of immigrants wrong, right?
00:20:22.000It doesn't matter if he gets a specific detail about whether or not Haitians fried up a cat or a dog wrong, right?
00:20:29.000It's like the policy he's talking about is real and they take it seriously.
00:20:34.000And since he's the only one addressing it and the only one who seems concerned about it, all of those little things that the media gets hung up on don't matter.
00:20:45.000When they start taking this stuff seriously and they start addressing and acknowledging even the grievances that people have, you know, like Springfield, Ohio, nobody voted for that.
00:21:04.000And he's the only one who seems to care.
00:21:06.000And until they start addressing those grievances and acknowledging that those are legitimate grievances, then they're going to lose to guys like Trump.
00:21:28.000Tell people where they can follow you.
00:21:31.000Yeah, the best place again is on Locals, peoplespundit.locals.com.
00:21:35.000And we're on YouTube, we're on Rumble, we're basically a getter, we are on getter too, but if you go to Locals, sign up, become a member, you'll see it all.
00:21:44.000What we're doing with the polling, actually we're going to run a nationwide voter file analysis, which we have not done this election cycle yet.
00:22:04.000Thank you for making the time and we'll talk to you soon because we're going to want to know how the numbers settle out in the days that come.
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00:23:20.000We have Mark Mitchell, chief pollster of Rasmussen, on with us.
00:23:24.000Mark, give us the big picture takeaway.
00:23:27.000I feel like there's a little bit of, you know, how would you say it?
00:23:31.000We were expecting maybe a little bit more of a 50-50, but the morning after, it looks like Trump really took this thing, and I think that's surprising a ton of people, even in conservative circles.
00:24:23.000And even just the expansion of the electorate in 2020 gets us to a point where I think there's less undecided voters than really anybody's willing or able to come to terms with.
00:24:34.000I think going into this debate, though, the way that we kind of looked at it is people gave Trump and Kamala Harris about even odds, which was better for her than Biden.
00:24:42.000Only 37% of people expected Biden to win.
00:24:46.000But in our opinion, the momentum and narrative has been slipping through their fingers like sand after this DNC that didn't give them the historic bounce.
00:24:57.000That's back when you had undecided voters, when you get like these massive upper single digit bounces for like Clinton and Biden.
00:25:04.000She got like maybe two points in our polling.
00:25:07.000And then all of a sudden over the weekend, the New York Times and Nate Silver independently came out and like stuck a shiv In the Kamala Harris campaign, they destroyed her momentum in the press by saying the New York Times came out and agreed with us.
00:25:24.000That Donald Trump is winning the popular vote by one point.
00:25:27.000We have the exact same results, us and the New York Times.
00:25:30.000And so it's awfully hard to ignore Rasmussen reports and all of the polls we put out, like four times more polls than the New York Times, when we say the same thing.
00:25:40.000So everything we've been saying going into this debate is that in our polling, Trump has always been winning the national popular vote.
00:25:47.000Now, a major mainstream media outlet came out and validated our data And if it's true and he's winning the national popular vote, I think even the swing states start to matter less.
00:25:58.000And so what you have is between now and where we're at, and November, what are all the things that could move their numbers aside from like another assassination attempt, or they're not even going to be able to jail Trump anymore.
00:26:15.000And so we said going into it, such a huge pressure for her to perform in a way that she never has yet.
00:26:23.000She really needs an unequivocal win to show that she'll be a better president than Donald Trump.
00:26:30.000And I think looking at last night, she, you know, people have said she'd win.
00:26:33.000I think the mainstream media doesn't have their hearts in it.
00:27:06.000She was more rehearsed, more polished, but it was You've got this Reuters article that says 6 out of 10 undecideds are now either voting for Trump or leaning Trump, and then you've got panelists after panelists after panelists that somehow still says, yeah, but I think I'm going to go with Trump.
00:27:27.000Why are we so able to see that maybe Kamala won the style points but lost on substance?
00:27:34.000What is happening with these focus groups?
00:27:37.000I would caution people to avoid the information coming out of And this is like, I think Michael Crichton coined the concept, but basically like when you read the newspaper and you see an article you know something about and you are like, Oh, they're lying.
00:27:53.000And then you go to a topic you don't know anything about.
00:27:55.000And you're like, Oh, they're telling me the truth.
00:27:57.000Uh, mainstream media pollsters and the mainstream media have proven themselves time and time again, again, to be liars all the time.
00:28:17.000And again, like I'm saying, I don't even know like how many undecided voters there are out there, but somehow they were able to come up with a completely random sample of those people that reflect the cross section of the undecided in America.
00:28:34.000It's impossible, and it's great for, like you said, the post-debate debate, right?
00:28:39.000They're trying to form a narrative about who won, but I think in reality, the Trump people will find something that they like.
00:28:46.000The Harris people, you know, the Trump people were looking for zingers to clip and put on Twitter, like you were talking about, right?
00:28:52.000And when they look at Kamala Harris, I think very few of them will objectively say, oh, she answered that well because they were probably put off by all the contrived faces she was making.
00:29:02.000And on the left, they're getting exactly what they want to, which is the mainstream media telling them that she is a brilliant statesman and policy genius.
00:32:42.00060% of them think the media is the enemy of the people.
00:32:45.000You know, the Fed's direction, like literally everything nobody trusts anymore.
00:32:50.000And I think what you're seeing in a deeper way is almost this like, spiritual political battle.
00:32:55.000Because when you're talking about all those lies that Kamala Harris spewed, and I think objective thinkers and rational people could look at them and call them lies.
00:33:03.000If you think about them, like religious quasi religious catechisms, I think it makes A lot more sense.
00:33:10.000And we've definitely gone into the religious aspect.
00:33:13.000Trump is winning by 30 points with evangelical Christians, but Kamala Harris is winning by even more than among Democrats with atheists.
00:33:21.000But it isn't just religion, it's this aspect of reality.
00:33:25.000And I think that's one of the reasons that our information, again, when people follow us, and I feel the pull for our content, It's because they seem like they're hungry for information and want to figure out how to consume it rationally and engage with it in discussion and dialogue.
00:33:43.000Like what Charlie Kirk is doing on college campuses right now.
00:33:46.000It's almost like our country has lost its ability to debate.
00:33:50.000And that's how you get cancel culture.
00:33:52.000That's how you get Biden strong approvers wanting to put the unvaccinated in camps and that's how you get this just absolute disagreement and it's like you have the regime mentality who wants to maintain some kind of psychological conformity as like in some kind of like cultist behavior to be frank and honest
00:34:14.000And I see it even on my Twitter feed, like the people that like our polling will ask me questions, they'll point out flaws that we'll have an engaging discussion.
00:34:24.000The trolls that come here, the blue anons that come to my Twitter feed, it's literally just two logical fallacies over and over again, right?
00:34:37.000That's all they if they can't Put their head in the sand to ignore our data.
00:34:44.000But the problem for them is we agree with the New York Times.
00:34:47.000Trump is winning the national popular vote.
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00:35:48.000Mark, one of the phenomenons that we've seen in the post-debate analysis is that independents are tracking very closely with Republicans, especially on immigration and inflation, the economy.
00:36:00.000Is this what you're seeing in your numbers?
00:36:02.000Do you expect to see whatever's left of that undecided independent vote break for Trump, or is it not going to matter?
00:36:10.000In my opinion, independent doesn't always necessarily mean undecided, to be honest with you.
00:36:17.000Listen, the Democrats have a brand advantage.
00:36:19.000Often it's cool to call yourself Democrats, and you'll have people that are Democrat and vote, you know, Trump.
00:36:24.000And then you also have this trend over the last three or four years of people fleeing the Republican Party and calling themselves independents because they just don't think, you know, it's a party that's serving their interests.
00:36:36.000But what I would say is that the independents They're the ones that are going to decide this election because in our numbers, the biggest move in all of them from 2020 has been the independence went for Biden, like upper double digits in our polls in 2020.
00:36:52.000And now it's a Trump, solid Trump win every single poll we've had in the last, like really Afghanistan woke him up and turned him super, super conservative.
00:37:01.000It got to the point where the swing in independence was so big that we had to reevaluate and put additional methodology in.
00:37:13.000Right now, I mean, we are getting like a 10, 15 point Trump lead among independents.
00:37:19.000So we're waiting to the 2020 recall vote, which a lot of people aren't.
00:37:22.000We don't need to get into all the details.
00:37:25.000But I get a lot of Trump supporters and I have to weight them down in order to get to what I think is an accurate representation of where the race is now.
00:37:33.000And even despite that, again, we have Trump plus one.
00:37:37.000If we're wrong, Kamala Harris has a blowout and for some reason for the first time in a national presidential cycle we're off more than like a point and a half.
00:37:48.000It will be because something changed in my methodology that made my independents look too conservative.
00:37:54.000But they have their eyes open about all of this.
00:37:57.000The independents only gave Trump about a 15 point favorability advantage going into the first debate with Biden.
00:38:04.000After Biden's failure, they said like 63% to 10 that Trump won that debate.
00:38:11.000So I'm expecting to see something similar about them and we'll see how they break.
00:38:16.000But they've been more and more conservative on every issue that matters.
00:38:20.000They trust Republicans and Trump 15 to 20 points more on like the economy and the border.
00:38:26.000And quite frankly, they like don't seem to care about abortion that much and all of the other Like, key Democrat issues.
00:38:34.000Now, there are a huge mix of people in there.
00:38:42.000But in our latest matchup, we had independents going six points to Donald Trump, and I think the number without waiting to the recall vote was like 10 or 11 points.
00:38:54.000That's one of the things that separates us from the people like ABC News, which are sampling massive Trump deranged populations and getting independents going harassed by upper single digits.
00:39:04.000So break that down for what that means, and I think that's really good news if you're a Trump supporter.
00:39:09.000Arizona has more registered independents than Republicans or Democrats.
00:39:15.000What does that mean in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, especially the blue wall states?
00:39:21.000Yeah, a lot of them are trending more and more independent as well.
00:39:24.000And quite frankly, it makes the polling harder if your target's moving every four years, which it is.
00:39:31.000But those people tend to be Kitchen table issue voters that have less loyalty to party, which again, is why in every single swing state, we show Trump doing much better than the Republican party and even the Republican senatorial candidates.
00:39:48.000But that's the things like fracking, the things like jobs and inflation matter to those people.
00:39:55.000And that's how you get over the last four years, a 20 point shift towards Trump In the independents.
00:40:01.000So they definitely shifted towards Trump, again, unlike, you know, whatever's going on in the ABC News polling.
00:40:11.000And not only is it impossible to predict exactly what the political makeup of the independents is, but even how big they'll turn out, right?
00:40:20.000Because we've been frequently surprised by the sudden and drastic increases in mysterious turnout, really going back all the way to 2018.
00:40:31.000But again, at this point in time, like, look, Pennsylvania is the must-win state.
00:40:35.000We had it as a statistical tie in numbers collected in the middle of the DNC, which is six points better than Trump was doing just four years ago in our polling.
00:40:47.000And we only shifted the weighting like three points more Republican.