On this day in 2016, Charlie Kirk and the rest of the Turning Point USA team were celebrating the one year anniversary of the Election Night Super Stream with a very special guest. Today's guest is Andrew Colvet, Blake Neff, and Tyler Boyer.
00:00:56.000The Charlie Kirk Show is proudly sponsored by Preserve Gold, the leading gold and silver experts and the only precious metals company I recommend to my family, friends, and viewers.
00:01:09.000All right, folks, we are back for the one-year anniversary of the Election Night Super Stream, the historic Election Night Super Stream of 2024.
00:01:22.000Now, technically, tomorrow night is the official one year because Election Day kind of shifts around.
00:01:28.000So this year, Election Night is the fourth.
00:01:31.000Last year, Election Night was the fifth.
00:01:34.000And of course, it was one year ago today that Charlie Kirk was sitting right here with that incredible historic video, which we play over and over again.
00:01:45.000Erica running in, hugging him, embracing him, and Charlie giving thanks to God.
00:01:55.000And Charlie's not here tonight, folks.
00:03:43.000Everybody should remember this moment.
00:03:45.000Look, I'm going to echo Charlie from earlier.
00:03:48.000Remember where you were when this happened.
00:03:51.000Remember where you were when you realized that the uniparty and all these, you know, just the establishment, you said it's time to actually participate.
00:05:09.000I always think back when I first started working at Fox, I remember a guy who'd been there longer said, you know, before Trump was a guy, like we'd have to really make up stuff to cover.
00:05:18.000You know, that's why they'd have to be like, well, let's get an update on Natalie Holloway here because, you know, there'd just be days, there'd be weeks where nothing super interesting was going on.
00:05:28.000But really, for the last decade, solid, it has truly been very eventful times, constant motion, constant flux, constant change.
00:05:38.000And so it feels incredible that it was a year ago.
00:05:40.000And yet, also, a lot happened in that year in the transition, in the early days of the admin, and just in the months since.
00:06:32.000And I feel like about five lifetimes have passed since that moment because what that spun off was this mad dash to figure out how to beat them.
00:07:09.000We had no money for the boots on the ground.
00:07:11.000Less than four years ago, so this is 2022 in Arizona.
00:07:15.000We're obviously headquartered out of Arizona, but the entire Republican national apparatus had said, we've got this.
00:07:21.000We've got all the bodies on the ground.
00:07:24.000And that was when we had decided that was the election that ultimately between what had happened between 2020 and 2022 was Charlie sat right there and looked us in the eyes and said, we have to build this thing because nobody else is building it.
00:07:39.000Well, to your credit, Tyler, I mean, you looked at Charlie and said, we have to build this thing.
00:07:43.000And candidly, Charlie was like, man, I need another job.
00:08:01.000The RNC is not going to get behind it.
00:08:03.000And I'll never forget, then we went to war with Ronal McDan and the RNC because they weren't getting serious about the reforms that people like you within the RNC were calling for.
00:08:13.000They wouldn't even acknowledge it at the time.
00:08:15.000And, you know, there's been significant dramatic movement within the yeah, yeah, yeah.
00:08:19.000This is a whole different regime at the RNC.
00:08:45.000We will continue the legacy of this super stream because all of us know this was Charlie's favorite, you know, favorite work night of the year.
00:08:56.000I said it was Charlie's favorite day of the year earlier.
00:08:58.000People were like, well, what about his birthday?
00:09:00.000Obviously, he did not like his birthday.
00:09:04.000No, I think this was his favorite night.
00:09:45.000Okay, so, but that's when we partnered with PA Chase, Scott Pressler's group.
00:09:50.000So in Georgia, we were and Charlie, or Charlie dispatched Tyler.
00:09:55.000So Tyler was behind the scenes flying all over the country, building these relationships and partnerships with local GOPs, county GOPs.
00:10:04.000Remember, Tyler, then we did the Vegas event where we invited the hundred most critical counties in the country, the GOPs, to come visit us in Vegas, be a part of an event right ahead of the winter meeting, I believe, of the RNC.
00:10:18.000We got 75 counties represented, plus others, and state GOPs represented.
00:10:23.000We got them all there and absolutely, I think, revolutionized the way that Republicans, I will never forget that event because it revolutionized the way that Republicans and GOP groups around the country looked at elections.
00:10:38.000They said that what you guys are doing at Turning Point, and you're breaking down the data, you're making it actionable for us, is going to change the game, especially in 2024.
00:10:47.000And by the way, all of that came true.
00:10:50.000And it scared the living daylights out of the establishment.
00:11:04.000Reporters were just creeping everywhere.
00:11:06.000I had to know your business just as well as you knew your business at Turning Point Action because I was having to defend you.
00:11:12.000And by the way, there were hit pieces.
00:11:13.000Like the establishment was putting out hit pieces on.
00:11:16.000I remember that's where that's I was on stage and remember that there was that like Georgia delegation that was kind of like a little bit anti-Charlie and like I got into it with this one guy.
00:11:24.000Well, a lot of the Georgia delegation was really pro, to be fair.
00:13:04.000Absolutely, election night was his Super Bowl.
00:13:06.000He would have been absolutely begging, pleading, screaming from the top of his lungs, vote, vote, vote, fight, fight, fight, never surrender.
00:13:52.000Yeah, so let's chat PA for a little bit.
00:13:54.000First off, I want to set expectations and make sure that they're in line with reality.
00:13:59.000In the history of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, only one state Supreme Court justice has not been retained.
00:14:05.000So we look at this race as if we pull off one of these, not only is it a miracle, but it would really be a redefining of kind of the electorate in Pennsylvania.
00:14:13.000So that being said, the two races that I'm really interested in are the Superior and Commonwealth Court.
00:14:21.000We've got two of those that are actual candidates on the ballot, Republican versus Democrat.
00:14:26.000And in PA, we really don't have much for returns, right?
00:14:30.000New Jersey, we've seen a lot more numbers coming out, so I'm happy to dive in on that and give some predictions.
00:14:35.000But right now, it's those two statewide judicial races, and then obviously all the permanent infrastructure that we're building across Pennsylvania.
00:14:43.000If you guys are okay with me jumping the jersey, I'd love to share some of the numbers we're looking at.
00:14:47.000Yeah, actually, Cliff, you know, I realized when we were going around the horn, we didn't really give you a chance to jump in.
00:15:13.000You know, I feel like there's been lifetimes that have passed, crazy things, obviously, that have happened.
00:15:20.000But every time you see that clip, I mean, the special thing about that clip is not just Charlie getting upset, not just Erica coming into the room to embrace him, but it's really the culmination of all of the work that all of us have done for a decade, you know, for longer, right?
00:15:37.000It was kind of, I mean, listen, I don't want to get sensationalist, but I will say this.
00:15:42.000I mean, a lot of us think that 2024, if Kamala Harris would have won that election, we would have lost the Republic.
00:15:49.000Now, I'm not somebody that says that about every election being the most important election.
00:15:53.000Mitt Romney versus Obama was not the most important election in our lifetimes.
00:16:00.000And I think every time I watch that clip, I'm reminded about that moment, how much it meant to all of us, how much it meant to Charlie, how much it meant to the entire movement about the work we were putting in actually paying off.
00:16:15.000The other thing I want to give Tyler and the whole team credit for is that alternative RNC event in Las Vegas.
00:16:22.000I don't think people realize just how significant that was in switching up the establishment leadership and leading to Rana, kind of seeing her way out.
00:17:38.000When you've got so much over on a C3 with Turning Point USA, and you got people focused on fundraising for that and growing the chapter network and all that stuff, to then pivot and say, hey, we're going to launch this C4 and really in earnest, it was already launched, but to really build resources behind that, the amount of resources and focus and energy, what you're asking, what you're embracing at that moment of what your future life is going to look like, it's basically like you don't stop.
00:19:40.000Look, as we said in the beginning, you know, this is about competing when it comes to vote by mail, hopefully improving when it comes to voting in person early, and then obviously having to dominate election day.
00:19:51.000So the vote by mail numbers increased, but not a huge margin.
00:19:55.000The early in-person, you know, we're up about five percentage points.
00:19:59.000But the real rub is this, and me and Tyler were talking about this offline earlier this morning.
00:20:04.000We're down about 300,000 votes when you extrapolate out some of where we think independents are going to fall for all of the early voting or the vote by mail.
00:20:14.000That means that Jack Chitterelli has to win Election Day voters by greater than a 300,000 vote margin.
00:20:22.000Now, in 2021, just four years ago, Jack won by just over 200,000, depending on how you look at the numbers.
00:20:30.000So we need extreme turnout here on Election Day.
00:20:33.000And we've only got, like you said, an hour and five minutes left.
00:20:37.000Here's my projection of where we're going to fall based on the total number of votes that come in for this election.
00:20:43.000If we get 3 to 3.1 million votes, Mikey Sherrill will win.
00:20:48.000I'm talking total votes if you include all the early and then all of the election day.
00:20:53.000If we get north of 3.2, Jack Chitterelli has got a shot because he will have increased so much of the election day turnout from four years ago when we had roughly 2.6 million people vote.
00:22:35.000So turnout in 2021 was a 40% turnout out of the electorate.
00:22:41.000To put that in perspective, the prior election in 2017 was a 38.5% turnout.
00:22:47.000And 2013, when Chris Christie won last, it was a 39% turnout.
00:22:53.000So you're really hovering right around typically a 35 to 40% turnout.
00:23:00.000Now, in years past, we've seen higher, but the population in New Jersey has dramatically increased, just as it has in many places over the last 10 years.
00:23:11.000And Jack, break down what you did earlier on the show.
00:23:14.000I thought it was really fascinating with Rich, where you were talking about the ethnic white population that Jersey has.
00:23:20.000You were talking about Italians, Polish.
00:23:22.000Why that makes New Jersey different than New York?
00:23:25.000Yeah, so we were talking about how the demographic makeup in New Jersey, which is not dissimilar from Pennsylvania.
00:23:32.000It's very similar to PA, where I'm from, where you've got this working-class, blue-collar, working-class white voter of a lot of Italians, a lot of Irish, a lot of Poles like yours truly here that come in.
00:23:46.000And those groups are historically Democrat, but have flipped in key races over the years when you look at like Nixon in 6872, when you look at Reagan in 1980 and then 1984, and then of course for Trump himself when he came out.
00:24:07.000So those are the same groups, by the way, that gave Trump the margin in Pennsylvania because they flipped from D to R, or they were registered D, but were still willing to vote for the Republican candidate.
00:24:19.000And you see the same type of demographics in New Jersey as well as New Jersey facing the same type of economic headwinds that Pennsylvania has, the deindustrialization, the impact of outsourcing, the impact of financialization.
00:24:34.000They've all seen these issues writ large.
00:24:36.000And of course, massive influxes of the illegal alien population, et cetera.
00:24:40.000New Jersey, by the way, I think when you actually track it out per capita, New Jersey is the number five state for illegal aliens in the entire country, which is crazy when you think of how small New Jersey is and the fact that it's literally nowhere near the border, but it's because they get it because of because of New York as a point of entry.
00:24:57.000So when you look at all those things, that's vastly different from Virginia, where, by the way, polls just closed in Virginia.
00:25:04.000So if you're in line, stay in line in Virginia.
00:25:48.000And many of them are going to be voting for Jay Jones because they don't oppose the rhetoric that came out from his text messages.
00:25:55.000Real quick here, guys, I want to show you just how brutal the D.C. politics is getting, just so we're clear.
00:26:02.000We got Senator Mark Wayne Mullen who says that there was a backroom negotiation that was conducted by Chuck Schumer with other senators that says to wait until after the election to vote to turn the government back on, to reopen it, because he was fearful that if they didn't keep the government shut, that the voter turnout would sag.
00:26:26.000So they were using the government shutdown.
00:26:41.000Last week, Liz, I know Dick Durbin wanted to break with the Democrats and reopen the government.
00:26:49.000Chuck Schumer in a private meeting with other Democrat senators said that if you'll just wait till after the election, I'll release the handcuffs.
00:26:58.000I added the handcuff part, but basically I'm paraphrasing what he said.
00:27:01.000The reason why is because they're afraid their base wouldn't show up today in Virginia, New Jersey, and in New York.
00:27:11.000It's been about holding the American people as leverage points, regardless of the damage they cause to the livelihood of these individuals.
00:27:18.000But elections are more important than the Dems because why they know their polls is at the very bottom than it's ever been for the Democrat Party.
00:27:28.000Well, we'll find that out later tonight.
00:27:46.000But yeah, so we got a question here that was basically saying, can we rank the races by how winnable we think they are in order to tell where to look for hope?
00:27:57.000And I think that's also a good excuse to just rattle off the list of races that we're watching.
00:28:03.000I think we could probably agree of the major races, the one we're most optimistic on is probably Virginia AG, where we have Jason Mayaz versus, I always forget his name.
00:28:15.000And so that one was looking very rough most of the race.
00:28:19.000You know, competitive, but down consistently, probably five points or so.
00:28:23.000And then he went and said he wanted to kill children because that's the only way that we can have people change their views is if you kill their kids in front of them and then maybe shoot them, too.
00:29:41.000If Omar wins, this will be a crazy time in America because you'll have Mayor Omar in Minneapolis and you will have Mom Donnie in New York City.
00:29:51.000And this is the big question because there's been some argument, some debate online about Mom Donnie, you know, how good of a chance Mom Donnie has.
00:29:59.000We talked about this yesterday on Jack's show.
00:30:02.000There's a lot of individuals and a lot of polling that's out there that's showing like a 20-point victory for Mom Donnie.
00:30:07.000There's some people that were pointing to some late polling.
00:30:12.000I will remind everyone with early voting, the later polling goes, the more it tilts in favor of those who show up on Election Day.
00:30:21.000And so you have generally a more conservative poll closer to Election Day than you do 10 or 20 days out from Election Day.
00:30:30.000So if you have early voting in any jurisdiction that is 20, 30, 40 days out, there's somewhere in the middle is a more realistic poll, in my opinion.
00:30:41.000And that's what we've seen is that polling becomes lopsided closer that you get to the election because people have already cast their ballots.
00:30:49.000So people either are answering the poll that have already voted or people are answering it incorrectly.
00:30:55.000Wouldn't that just mean that the polls are kind of irrelevant then?
00:31:31.000I was like, well, it looks like Cuomo has a chance.
00:31:33.000I want to remind everybody again: when early voting happens and you have an extremely crooked, I mean, you could make the argument that New York City has the most crooked elections in America.
00:31:46.000I mean, we literally have to go to the house.
00:31:47.000California's giving a run for their money, but no, but I mean, yeah, I mean, New York City historically, like, they invented, you know, you have intense, intense union presence.
00:32:00.000You have all of the international elements that are there.
00:32:04.000You have all these illegals that are there now voting that they're allowing voting.
00:32:07.000And it's a sanctuary city for voting for illegals.
00:32:11.000It's not just for a living for illegals.
00:35:01.000And if you look at this tweet, what it's showing you is the different turnout when you compare to 2021 in each of these counties.
00:35:09.000Now, listen, all these counties are not strongholds for left or right, but I'm just saying if Jack's going to win, he's going to need to see extreme improvement over the 2021 turnout.
00:35:20.000The more people showing up on election day, it's obviously going to help him overall.
00:35:25.000And so you're seeing in some of these counties, and it's some of these, you know, you're talking at 2 o'clock or 4 o'clock, some 6 o'clock, but they're overperforming 2021.
00:35:34.000And, you know, you look at Ocean County, which is the strongest county for Republicans in New Jersey.
00:35:42.000I'm not saying by any means that that means he's going to win, but we would have to see counties like that skyrocket as we get to 8 o'clock here when it comes to total votes by comparison to 2021.
00:35:55.000But I thought this tweet was a really good breakdown.
00:35:57.000Cliff, talk about how important Ocean County is for Republicans.
00:36:00.000Yeah, Ocean County, I believe in 2016, of all the counties in America, it received the second most raw votes for Donald Trump.
00:36:09.000Okay, this is a Republican stronghold.
00:36:12.000It is absolutely one where we have to run up the score.
00:36:15.000I mean, if we increase the turnout in Ocean County by 10 to 12 percentage points, you're talking about massive gains throughout the state and a state where Jack J. Rowley only lost by 84,000 votes four years ago.
00:36:28.000So Ocean County is one to absolutely keep your eye on.
00:36:46.000And so, and by the way, Ocean County is where that's where Cliff and Scott and then Tyler, you set up the very first turning point action Super Chase event was right there at Toms River, Toms River, New Jersey, which is Ocean County.
00:37:00.000And then that's right next door to Lakewood, New Jersey, which is that spot where we just saw these incredible numbers.
00:37:07.000The Orthodox Jewish community has come out in droves and we had lines upon lines around the block on that Sunday.
00:37:15.000Also, six flags, great adventures down there.
00:37:17.000Yeah, six flags where it's known to everybody.
00:40:27.000Yeah, this is like nothing burger results.
00:40:30.000So one thing that I would like to say to kind of just contextualize the night, one of the big asks that we're going to have, and of course, everyone is saying, like, well, is this, you know, is this an election referendum on Donald Trump?
00:40:42.000And, you know, obviously those are a lot of questions that were asked in all of the exit polls.
00:40:47.000But it's also a test for, and Tyler, you and I were talking about this yesterday in Human Events.
00:40:51.000It's going to be a test for the Republican Party going in the midterms to say, okay, what do we need to do to get those low-prop voters out with Donald Trump not being on the ballot?
00:41:04.000So when Donald Trump is not on the ballot himself, what needs to take place?
00:41:08.000What works, what doesn't work, in terms of strategy for getting out those low-prop voters, which were the special sauce to winning on the margins in seven out of seven of the swing states last time.
00:41:20.000And so, Tyler, I think, you know, we're going to have a lot of lessons out of tonight, no matter what happens in terms of this, because look, obviously we're competing in areas that we haven't competed before ever, like New Jersey.
00:41:33.000This is a blue state map that we're on.
00:41:35.000We're not supposed to be competing there.
00:41:37.000The Democrats, Barack Obama, don't want us competing there.
00:41:40.000That's why they had to bring him in in the first place because this was competitive.
00:41:44.000But at the same time, when you look at those demographic trends the way they're going, that's why we've been able to say, all right, let's play in these areas, came in to an extent, and then figure out what works in Jersey and what doesn't, especially though, writ large without Donald Trump being on the ballot himself.
00:42:11.000And also, we have Nala76 says, you may not have Mr. Hero, but they have great cheese steaks as well.
00:42:20.000We're getting a lot of cheese steak right now.
00:42:21.000Hey, just to put this out into the ether real quick here, I know it's still super early here, but with the votes that have been counted from the ballots that have been cast, it looks like Jones is trailing behind Spamberger about three points.
00:44:23.000Miaris is at plus three over Jay Jones with independence, with independence.
00:44:28.000So like in a state where you have a registration advantage that's pretty striking for the Democrat Party, to have the AG have a noticeable exit polling advantage, whether that's enough to make up the difference or not, we will see, but at least that is holding, that is holding.
00:44:49.000By the way, here's another one, if we can get this up in time.
00:45:30.000Well, Blake, should we talk about how that translates itself into the abortion vote?
00:45:36.000I mean, are there any abortion votes today?
00:45:38.000No, I'm just saying, in terms of the Attorney General and in terms of coming out and saying you're pro-abortion versus pro-life, which we know Mayaris is, then perhaps saying what I'm trying to get at is perhaps saying what Jay Jones said is already in line with a lot of what, as we know, single Democrat women already believe.
00:46:16.000Just so you guys are aware, there are some people that are already trying to call the race, the gubernatorial election in Virginia for Democrat Abigail Spanberger.
00:46:45.000Ballot measure six in New York would switch their local elections to presidential election years.
00:46:51.000I oppose that on the pure principle that we need content as political watchers, and it's good to have some elections that are in off years.
00:47:00.000We don't want just another boring election that's part of the presidential election.
00:47:09.000There's only one statewide measure, Prop 50.
00:47:12.000It's to adopt basically re-legalize gerrymandering so they can make a Democrat gerrymander to counter some Republican efforts we've had in Texas and Ohio and so on.
00:47:21.000That seems likely to pass, but not heavily polled.
00:47:58.000So this is this is the same conversation that we're having across the board here.
00:48:02.000An expectation to recall someone is really, really hard.
00:48:05.000And part of the reason for that is because the Democrats join with the usually the establishment or uniparty type Republicans, try to hold people in office, da, da, da, while outsiders have to come in and win.
00:48:18.000That election that is being forced in Arizona is a is a huge deal because it forced the Democrats on their heels to have to spend really hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of effort and resources to try to retain a you know again quote-unquote Republican for Kamala that they were trying to use this last election and the election before in 2020 to try to confuse the public.
00:48:42.000So the conservatives did the right thing, put her on the recall ballot, and she might lose.
00:48:48.000And if she loses, that will be a huge, huge upset for the Democrats because they'll have lost embarrassingly a person that was they were propping up to try to confuse voters.
00:48:58.000The by the way, and I'm just going to say it.
00:48:59.000So this, you know, Andrew, you mentioned about how there's been some projections in Virginia.
00:49:05.000So Decision Desk has come out, and we've always gone with Decision Desk on the pod here that Decision Desk has projected Abigail Spanberger to win the Virginia gubernatorial election.
00:49:18.000And so, of course, we're going to be tracking this throughout the night, but we're putting it out.
00:49:21.000Decision Desk does have it, and we've always gone with error calls in the past.
00:51:22.000People are reporting for Bucks County, if that's what you're asking about, Meg.
00:51:25.000But if not, if you're asking about what's going on in Chester County, perhaps Cliff could chime in here, but basically third-party voters were left off the poll books.
00:51:35.000And so now voters in Chester County, throw up image 218, have until 10 p.m. to vote in Chester County.
00:52:20.000A ton of Republicans, by the way, and as well as conservative-leaning, conservative-leaning independents.
00:52:26.000Didn't flip in 2024 the way Bucks County did, but it was one of the ones that was a target to flip.
00:52:31.000And yeah, the idea that they were not able to have independent voters, there was even questions, by the way.
00:52:37.000And not only that, so typically, by the way, what would happen is if your name is not in the poll book, then you would go and cast what's called a provisional ballot.
00:52:44.000And then, of course, they promptly ran out of provisional ballots, and they were telling people that they had to be turned away.
00:52:54.000Wonder what happened with Josh Shapiro's governance of the elections in Pennsylvania to allow one of the most populous counties of Pennsylvania to not have their elections done correctly.
00:53:51.000That's bad news, but I mean, a lot of people were saying that we needed to say Jason Miaris run a delta of 10 over Winsom in order to pull this off.
00:54:27.000But that's, listen, if he can, if he, the higher, the closer to 10 points that that can get to, the better chance that Jason Miaris is going to have a chance to pull this off the way that the evening's going.
00:54:38.000Yeah, I mean, like always, we're going to be sitting here waiting for the gigantic Fairfax County nuclear bomb to go off.
00:54:48.000I mean, this Chester County thing, it's not just about the retention races.
00:54:51.000It's not just about the Superior and Commonwealth court races.
00:54:55.000But we have thousands of school board races and local judge of elections and precinct level races.
00:55:02.000I mean, these races that are local are going to dictate who oversees the elections for 2026 through 2029.
00:55:08.000So the fact that 75,000 of these people were kept off the voting rolls in a time when everyone is already just raising their red flags about a lot of the voter integrity and the processes, it's just too big of a mistake to make.
00:55:21.000So I give tons of credit to Scott Pressler for applying the pressure.
00:55:25.000And as you guys said, two extra hours in Chester County.
00:55:29.000If anybody knows anyone there that's with us, America First, make sure they get out and vote, not just for the big races, but for all the local ones as well.
00:56:01.000Hey, Tyler, just since we've got more time in Chester County, by the way, Meg confirmed that that's what she was asking about Chester County, not Bucks.
00:56:09.000So we got to the main point that she had.
00:56:39.000If you didn't have the chance to do it this election cycle, please help us in the future.
00:56:44.000You download the TP Action application and you can go in and you can rock and roll real easily on there.
00:56:52.000Tap the top left-hand corner, the arrows, log in, and then you have the option to knock doors, make phone calls, send text messages, even write postcards of your own.
00:57:03.000It just gives you, it feeds you who to write the postcards to all throughout.
00:57:29.000It would be good to, you know, we say vote early if you can.
00:57:33.000Vote absentee if that's the only way you can do it.
00:57:35.000But we do prefer the ideal of people voting on election day, not having 8 million different ways to do it.
00:57:42.000If you had the opportunity to write the law and you could federalize elections, not that that's the way the Constitution works, but like how should the perfect ideal voting protocol be?
00:57:55.000I think the ideal form of voting is you have to register in advance.
00:58:01.000We have a log of all of who our citizens are.
00:58:21.000Do you prefer that it is a driver's license or do you prefer that it's an actual specific ID that is a voter voting ID?
00:58:29.000Well, it should be an ID that you have to actually demonstrate your citizenship to get, which is something we have greatly diluted in this nation.
00:58:39.000You know, we go, there's kind of a problem we had where we had, I think, a window to get good ID laws in place and like a good citizenship stuff.
00:58:47.000And we were kind of going through one of the conservative movements like big frenzies against any form of like government database of things.
00:58:55.000And so we don't, for example, we don't have an actual federal database of who's a citizen.
00:59:02.000And on top of that, you had also Interest from a big chamber of commerce to you know actually be on the side for sure for sure but it's not even just changing it's sort of like we also had this with the uh with the census where they got very paranoid about the census and that was happening at a time where we could have made the census better yeah but the chamber guys wanted the illegals in the country well they definitely do but they still do they still are they always
00:59:32.000always quite about all right race called another one lieutenant governor's race in virginia for democrat gazala hash me i think uh went to school with a gazala hash me just kidding um all right so what there's a lot of dodgers there's just a lot of oh a lot of a lot of new names yeah but so miares and jones that is a dead heat right now jones is slightly ahead but it's 11 reporting uh we're now getting some votes from
01:00:02.000a big one is we got almost all the votes from loudon it looks like 75 in from loudon and that's good to have almost all in because that is a big blue county at this point we are still waiting zero percent on the fairfax county nuke that is probably going to come in last so we're going to want to have built up some kind of lead that's going to be very ugly yeah and so we're going to want leads from you know rural virginia shenandoah virginia we're going to need that to offset what is going to be coming from fairfax county but
01:00:31.000this could be the race that we're watching throughout the night along with us waiting for new york mayor minneapolis mayor prop 50 is going to be very late tonight keep in mind too guys i mean obviously governor is a big deal not having the governorship and it in a state's a big deal but an attorney general can really hold the state in check so nothing makes the democrats more miserable than when you have a conservative attorney general basically thwarting the agenda of a legislature
01:01:03.000you know a situation where the legislature is held by the democrats plus the governorship and that's what you're looking at in virginia is a bad situation where you're going from a very conservative governor to a not so conservative governor like like break neck breaking speed so keeping jason in is going to be a huge deal to really cause them a lot of heartburn and and they're really freaked out by that because of the the uh how close
01:01:33.000to dc it is i mean virginia is the place that they the democrats run all of their junk through when they control it as a as a total blue state and it's really really been terrible for them to have republicans running the state for the last couple years here so uh our last four years so that's a that's a big that's a big deal that has to be uh has to be looked at is that jason you we really got to be pulling for we're going to keep a close eye on this um and
01:02:02.000it looks like a big a big uh dump just actually just came in i'm i'm looking to by the way go go look at the the governor's race so just because we're talking about the way uh virginia voters are which model which is is coming true is look at the modeling and you can actually see the republican john reed who I don't think anyone's talked about at all, is actually, and just what I'm checking, it looks like he's starting to outperform Sears in his voting.
01:02:31.000Some of the numbers I'm looking at, he's two points above Winsom Sears, who, by the way, had, I mean, she had every endorsement.
01:03:09.000It's kind of mind-boggling how the mind works.
01:03:12.000Some of it, to give some explanation, is that the ballot chasing on the left, so ballot harvesting, ballot chasing, depending upon the state.
01:03:33.000And this, by the way, you know, again, by the way, Andrew, one of those terms that I don't know if we can use anymore, but that actually is referred to as bullet voting because you're only filling in one.
01:04:46.000I mean, we all live and breathe this, so we've seen it a million times.
01:04:49.000But the fact that somebody will be the top cop in the state or the Commonwealth of Virginia who said that he fantasized about killing his political opponent and their kids, let's not discount how insane that is and the time period that we're in.
01:05:06.000I mean, that to me is just, it's insanity.
01:05:09.000And I just think we need to continuously talk about this, and we can't just kind of, you know, bury this thing and move on.
01:05:14.000It's like, this guy's a vile human being.
01:06:04.000And once you're in line, you stay in line.
01:06:06.000Blake, we had some breaking news, I believe, about the New Jersey lines from earlier tonight, that what happens to you if you stay, if you actually leave the line.
01:06:18.000And I had this from Data Republican, trusted source, who said that if you leave the line in New Jersey, that Chris Christie will come and eat you.
01:06:40.000Yeah, Democrats just are possibly going to elect an AG in Virginia who fantasizes about killing your kids, a top law enforcement officer.
01:06:50.000Can we just maybe have that as a permanent sign that you could put on your window or in your lawn that just says the Democrats' top law enforcement officer wants to kill my kids?
01:07:01.000How many people have voted for Jay Jones that we know as of right now?
01:07:04.000Let's check the exact total number of votes right now.
01:07:09.000So 367,000 people in Virginia have voted for someone who said what?
01:07:13.000He says he, you know, I think two bullets in each of that one Republican's kids because having your kids die is the only way you change your mind.
01:07:22.000So remember, when all the people told you it's both sides and we have to unite and we have to call it out on every angle, over 300,000 people just voted for a guy who believes that.
01:07:37.000And by the way, he didn't just say it.
01:07:38.000He called somebody up and was harassing her over this.
01:07:42.000And then hundreds of thousands of Democrats went and voted for him.
01:07:45.000No, and by the way, the person that he was texting with said, this makes me uncomfortable.
01:07:51.000Yeah, then he called them to double down and emphasize, no, he was dead serious and she was being a wuss by not embracing the, you have to kill your opponent's kids.
01:08:31.000Yeah, so all of a sudden, it's hilarious.
01:08:33.000So these guys are like, it's one of those instances where they're on TV too long, Rich, and like Bob forgets that there's a camera on.
01:08:39.000And Bob used to be a political operative in Northern Virginia.
01:08:42.000And he talks about the fact for Democrats.
01:08:45.000And he talks about the fact, oh, yeah, we used to hold back votes all the time in Northern Virginia.
01:08:49.000And it's like this little slip of the tongue where he like, you know, it's like a magician on stage telling everybody how he does his tricks.
01:09:47.000So, Bob Beckle, you know, God bless his soul.
01:09:52.000I was actually told by people who worked at Fox, he had been dealing with and struggling with, as millions of Americans in this country have during this modern era, you know, of like, you know, a painkiller addiction, apparently.
01:10:07.000And there's just a point in politics where they thought that's what loosened his tongue.
01:10:11.000But there was just a point in politics where some of these guys, especially these old school Democrats, just get older and start telling the truth.
01:10:21.000And the idea, like, we have to listen to the Nate Cohens of the world and everybody else on mainstream media pretend that this doesn't happen is ridiculous.
01:10:30.000I remember Jerry Nadler talking about this years ago when he thought that he was the one who suffered from, you know, as a result of it.
01:10:37.000And now all of a sudden, we're supposed to pretend it doesn't happen.
01:12:08.000You have got to do well here if you're a Republican, if you want to have any prayer of winning this state.
01:12:13.000Also in Louding County, it's almost all in.
01:12:17.000So this last batch will have to bump Mayarez up a little bit, but he's only running about 2.3 points behind Yunkin in Louding County.
01:12:26.000So when this last batch of election day vote comes in, he will have a chance to get a little bit closer to that.
01:12:31.000But all of this still, even if he runs slightly behind Yonkin, these areas have a lot of votes.
01:12:36.000All of this points to a very close race.
01:12:40.000So, you know, if something changes dramatically, you know, we'll know.
01:12:44.000But right now, Chesterfield, that next batch of votes that come in, guys, especially the election day, we have got to know where that comes from, which I will when it comes in, and, you know, how that vote broke.
01:12:55.000Because if Mayarez can retake Chesterfield, it's going to be, it's good news for him.
01:13:07.000It's bad news overall that this race is close, period, given what happened in this race.
01:13:13.000And I heard you guys when I was waiting, you know, talking about it.
01:13:16.000I mean, this is a guy who's going, he's the top cop in the state, Andrew.
01:13:20.000And he was fantasizing about killing the children of his political opponent and watching the mother hold the children as they die in her arms.
01:13:31.000I mean, by the way, the fact that you've got this gender split, Rich, like I'm going to be noodling on this all night and into the morning if Jay Jones wins, that you've got women, women.
01:13:45.000So this guy's saying that he wants the mom of these two kids to suffer, watching his kids die.
01:13:50.000And it's the women that are still defending this guy.
01:13:54.000I think that's going to be the story, though, Andrew, is that I mean, I hate to I hate to make this like super early projection for the night is that President Trump and we encourage this during the last election a year ago.
01:14:07.000We had a lot of men show up for elections.
01:14:14.000This may be a situation where we look at the data that's coming back and we're going to see an underperformance with men, overperformance with women.
01:14:24.000And again, your college-educated, middle-class female is voting basically straight line Democrat now in almost like 20-point margins, 25-point margins in a lot of these places.
01:15:48.000I mean, I'm listening to you, and I'm just, I cannot agree with you more.
01:15:52.000And I mean, this is definitely something that we have talked about, Jack, you know, right?
01:15:56.000And we have tried to tell people the power of this movement.
01:16:00.000I remember before Donald Trump and RFK appeared on the stage, your stage that you guys, obviously, I remember, put together.
01:16:08.000I was commissioned to, yeah, I was commissioned to do a poll.
01:16:12.000I was thinking that a lot of the stuff that we were actually asking voters about, now that we know, and now we know is Maha, right?
01:16:21.000I was thinking that some of it would just be a certain group of the population.
01:16:25.000I was blown away how these positions cut across all these different demographics.
01:16:32.000I mean, it was some weird way you were able to find this unity message with the guy in like a working class auto worker in southeastern Michigan and the rural cat lady who smells like petroli oil in Vermont.
01:16:48.000I mean, it was unbelievable the wide breadth of demographics that supported this.
01:16:54.000And, you know, we just don't hear about it anymore.
01:16:56.000I mean, it was great to put the coalition together and to win an election.
01:17:01.000But since then, there's been nothing exactly, like you just said it, Jack.
01:17:54.000I'm getting some intel from some insiders that are very close to some major Maha faces and voices.
01:18:01.000I won't expose which ones, but they just confirmed as they're sitting next to them that they were not asked to do anything.
01:18:10.000I'm not going to say who it was or where it was or whatever.
01:18:17.000There was not an ask and there was a willingness to go out and campaign and help.
01:18:21.000And so I think that this is a really important point from the campaigning standpoint is that part of the platform that has to be part of this new MAGA tent that we have is that Maha poll within the tent has to be respected.
01:18:37.000It has to be addressed, especially at the gubernatorial level.
01:18:41.000I mean, and this is something to look ahead to next year.
01:18:44.000I mean, we've got some really important gubernatorial elections, including here in Arizona that, you know, Andy Biggs better be paying attention and saying a big part of my campaign has to be about involving the Maha moms and the people that care about.
01:18:58.000And I have a question, actually, Rich, maybe you'd be good on this.
01:19:01.000So take it, rewind the clock back to 2021.
01:19:05.000Yunkin wins by, it looks about, was it 64,000 votes, something like that?
01:19:18.000And Yunkin is an exceptionally good candidate for the state of Virginia.
01:19:23.000I mean, he's, you know, he's polished.
01:19:25.000He's pretty moderate, really, but was able to rally behind the base.
01:19:31.000Also, we had this dynamic with Loudoun County where you had the daughter with the trans situation, the bathroom, get sexually assaulted.
01:19:42.000And then the father ends up having that viral video where he's getting like, I don't know, like escorted out of some city council meeting or whatever, right?
01:20:24.000Or is it just, are men the ones that are more concerned about their daughters getting assaulted in some bathroom by a trans kid?
01:20:32.000I mean, they are, but, and, and just to remind everybody, you know, when you're looking at married versus unmarried and parental demographics, um, across the country and in most states, married women, even married white women, uh still vote Republican, right?
01:20:51.000So it actually took that specific issue going on to narrow the margin because Terry McCall still did win married educated women, but it narrowed the margin.
01:21:20.000There's all this background on why that is.
01:21:22.000But I still do think that it's productive to look at what people have been saying, which we were just talking about the other day, Andrew, right?
01:22:10.000These people are concerned about the government shutdown.
01:22:12.000They are, and Yunkin was magical at this.
01:22:15.000He walked and chewed gum at the same time.
01:22:17.000He used those issues that were in the news at the time to his advantage, but he didn't just harp on them and ignore people's economic despair.
01:22:38.000You know, we're not con if you give somebody a choice between an issue that they think about values-based or a way of living issue, maybe, or something like that.
01:22:51.000But when they have economic issues, I mean, directly, pocketbook, and they're thinking about it every week when the paycheck hits or every month when they have to pay their mortgage.
01:23:50.000Three minutes until but I'm glad I could help you with that, Brandon.
01:23:53.000I just wish Britain was a little better.
01:23:55.000And then Naniak says, the people on Twitter telling women leaders to go home and shut up does not help college-educated white women to join the movement.
01:24:37.000In the end, that is who decides who holds offices in this country.
01:24:42.000And you can't do things unless you hold offices in this country.
01:24:45.000So if you don't vote, you are seceding.
01:24:47.000You are basically quitting and taking your ball and going home, you know, until they, you know, the people who did win the election just go and take your ball from you, too.
01:24:55.000Until they seize the means of ball bouncing.
01:25:08.000If you want to run to Wawa and pick up some Wawa coffee and donuts for people who are waiting in line over there in Ocean County, Toms River, Lakewood, just go out there, be that guy, be that helper.
01:25:21.000I know, I think I remember last year, people were, you know, people were sending like DoorDash, you know, just like random DoorDash orders to the lines, to the polling places, especially in some of these places where they kept it open later.
01:25:34.000Like, by the way, maybe that's even something, Tyler, maybe that's even something we could do for the people of Chester County because they're going to be out there till 10 p.m. tonight in Pennsylvania.
01:25:45.000Pennsylvania, most of the state in 66 of the 67 counties, you have one more minute to vote.
01:25:51.000But in Chester County, you have two more hours.
01:28:41.000That was the big red flag in 21 to even all the left-wing pundits.
01:28:45.000I mean, their heads were exploding because Chesterfield is, we were just talking about how does the Republicans party speak to especially more affluent women?
01:29:32.000And sometimes a little hard to, you know, to parse out.
01:29:36.000But Yunkin and McAuliffe went back and forth all night.
01:29:39.000In fact, the race was called for Yunkin when Chesterfield had a little bit left on the table and McAuliffe was just a hair ahead.
01:29:48.000And then when that last batch was counted, it put Yunkin over.
01:29:51.000So, I mean, it still can be close, you know, but he's got to get it closer.
01:29:55.000And I mean, we're getting to the point where some of these counties, so far, with the exception of Fairfax, are doing pretty good reporting their votes.
01:30:03.000So I'm not sure we're going to have the similar situation that we had in 21.
01:30:07.000But one thing that is a bit, you know, if I had to play Devil's Advocate here, Louding County, that three-point underperformance, I know it's just one county, but it kind of is a big deal.
01:30:18.000And why I'm looking towards Chesterfield to see where he can make it up.
01:30:22.000Because, I mean, a three-point underperformance if Yunkin won by roughly two, it means a very close race.
01:30:29.000It means a like 50.5 guys, you know, kind of win.
01:31:47.000Thank you for tuning in, letting us continue to.
01:31:51.000I want to bring us back to the original one because when we figured this out, so just to give some context here, the first stream that we did was, I think it was 2018.
01:32:07.000I know that we got a ton of eyeballs during the 2020 race.
01:32:18.000And we just were like, let's go live because people are interested in talking about this.
01:32:22.000And the response that we got heading into 2020, where we went hard in 2020, and that took years off our life being up like every night for like weeks, it felt like it was like months, it felt like.
01:32:38.000The whole idea of doing the stream was to give people an alternative to this just terrible product that standard media gave, which they gave no consensus on what was going on.
01:33:24.000You know, this is the first big election that we don't have Charlie with us, as we said in the chat.
01:33:30.000But yeah, the next election, which will be a year from now, that will be the first big midterm since, you know, obviously Charlie being taken from us.
01:33:43.000And I think it would be really important for us to just mention while we're on the stream right now, President Trump put out a really important true social today.
01:33:51.000And his true social said, hey, guys, and I'm paraphrasing, but hey, guys, the radical left is out of control.
01:34:00.000Regardless of what happens with the election tonight, we are going to be in a world of hurt if we don't get rid of the filibuster.
01:34:06.000And we can debate this a little bit because I'm sure Blake might have different viewpoint on this, but I agree with the president.
01:34:15.000If we don't get rid of the filibuster, we're going to be walking ourselves right into a radical government that's hijacked by the left, where they pack the Supreme Court, they make D.C. and Puerto Rico states, and we add four more Senate seats that are going to flip the Senate almost permanently.
01:34:36.000And you have a number of different other things that they're trying to do.
01:34:39.000Of course, we know getting illegals to vote, as we're going to see, I think, in New York City tonight.
01:34:43.000And so you have a hijacking of our country, a hijacking of the Constitution.
01:34:48.000And I thought it was really interesting that he posted that this morning.
01:34:51.000And I thought that was really good debate fodder as we sit here and we watch some of the returns come in.
01:34:56.000I wanted to, you know, I want to throw, and Rich, I know you got to run soon.
01:35:04.000And I know that you came on the main show, the Daily Show, talking about this.
01:35:09.000And you mentioned about the focus between domestic issues that voters want versus what they feel is sort of an overdue focus on foreign policy.
01:35:22.000And to be clear, President Trump's had a lot of foreign policy wins, but at the same time, that also leaves this opening on domestic policy.
01:35:30.000What are you seeing and unpack what you were saying there?
01:35:33.000Yeah, I don't know how many different ways I can try to explain this, but it's come down to this.
01:35:41.000I mean, in a state like Virginia and New Jersey, and even New Jersey, not less so Virginia, but New Jersey, it's a great example of this, Jack.
01:35:49.000I mean, he did incredible for a Republican presidential candidate in that state.
01:35:54.000And, you know, so you have voters like that that are new to the Trump coalition in that they voted for him.
01:36:00.000But then we have the other voters that you and I have drilled on for years, which are these disconnected, disaffected.
01:36:07.000They feel like the American dream is gone, you know, that their leaders have abandoned them.
01:36:13.000And they did not vote for this much focus on foreign policy.
01:36:17.000I don't know how to do this any other way.
01:36:21.000This has been too much attention on foreign affairs and foreign policy successes cannot save a president from his approval rating declining over things like this.
01:37:28.000And Rich, just to say, I mean, I think there's a lot of truth to that.
01:37:31.000And I think that, you know, if we see, and we saw Mom Donnie, by the way, play into that opening when he said, like, I care about New York.
01:37:42.000He, of course, lied the way communists all lie, but like, that's not the point.
01:37:46.000Is that when he came out publicly, every single time he did this, he talked about left-wing populism, resentment, populism, and he talked about local issues all day long.
01:38:00.000I don't understand why Republicans don't come out in off-cycle elections.
01:38:05.000And that's something we're going to be talking about that a lot because it's going to be an issue next year as well because it is a change.
01:38:10.000In 2010, in 2014, the narrative was all the Republican advantage in midterm off-cycle elections and that it was Obama who had those loosely affiliated voters who only turned out every four years.
01:38:23.000Well, Blake, I mean, to that point, too, we're going to see some differences between some of these elections because some of these elections are going to have a similar turnout number between Republicans and Democrats, which in the context of some of these races, that's pretty good because the Democrats actually have a ground game.
01:38:41.000In some of these states, we don't have as much of a ground game.
01:38:43.000The Republicans don't have as much of a ground game.
01:38:45.000And so the big, big question will be is not just turnout, but also how do we register more Republicans?
01:38:53.000And this is, again, this is the Scott Pressler, you know, screaming from the rooftops.
01:38:57.000There are some states we have a Republican voter registration advantage.
01:39:02.000There are many states, including deep red Republican states that you would recognize as a Republican state that we don't have a Republican voter registration advantage.
01:39:11.000The ones that we win all the time, but they have lower turnouts.
01:39:15.000And so it's really important to look at this and say, okay, this is a numbers game where we've got to register more voters in some of these states.
01:39:22.000And then we've got to actually put the boots on the ground to chase the voters to turn them out in order to win.
01:39:27.000And this is really important when we talk about young voters because young voters, first-time voters in particular, they need help voting, just like seniors need help voting.
01:39:38.000Hey, everybody, Andrew Colvett, executive producer of the Charlie Kirk Show.
01:39:41.000Charlie understood that to lead, he needed to learn.
01:39:45.000Hillsdale College was ready to teach him.
01:39:47.000While busy running his company, teaching America's youth and raising a beautiful family, Charlie still found time to complete 31 Hillsdale College free online courses.
01:39:56.000He talked about it the last time he spoke on his podcast with Hillsdale's president, Dr. Larry Arn.
01:40:01.000Hillsdale is the cutting edge, and I mean it.
01:40:04.000You are a force of nature, Charlie Kirk.
01:40:07.000One of these days, I'm going to give you an honorary degree.
01:40:09.000That would be the honor of my life, but I got a lot more learning yet to do.
01:40:13.000And I say this, the Hillsdale courses have changed my life.
01:40:15.000Through Hillsdale College's free online courses, Charlie studied the Bible, the classics, the American founding, and through his relentless pursuit of truth, became not only a great American, but a good man.
01:40:26.000Charlie's gone, but his spirit of hard work and lifelong learning carry on.
01:40:29.000Each of us can follow his example and pick up where he left off.
01:40:32.000So learn like Charlie did at charlie for hillsdale.com.
01:40:40.000I'll never forget, actually, and Rich, I have one more question for you before we send you on your way, but I'll never forget this when we were doing Turning Point Action and some of the education that we were getting from the field of these low-prop voters.
01:40:53.000You'd have guys with like Trump shrines in their garages, and they would tell you, yeah, they'd voted, but it was like they literally, they just filled out some like online poll or something.
01:41:03.000You know, they literally, and I think some of it was like too proud to admit they didn't know how to register or something.
01:41:09.000I mean, some of these people that are really on board, they are completely apolitical in every other facet of their life.
01:41:17.000And so you do have to hold their hands.
01:41:19.000You have to show them how to register, what to do with the ballot.
01:41:21.000You get just like 101, like civics 101 with these people.
01:41:25.000And you just have to kind of encourage them.
01:41:27.000So there's a lot of work to do, but I do think that we're going to see some of this enthusiasm gap, Rich, you're going to see balance out when it comes to a general election.
01:41:37.000You get somebody like JD Vance on the ballot, you're going to probably get some of those suburban educated conservatives that we've lost in the Trump era.
01:41:45.000I think they're going to come back home.
01:42:25.000I'm not even going to entertain it at this point.
01:42:27.000I know higher turnout typically was considered to have favored Cuomo.
01:42:33.000In the primary, that seemed to benefit Momdani that there was this fall off of certain voters, but he needed younger, under 45 voters to really come out gangbuster for him.
01:42:43.000Just so people understand the record for New York City for mayoral election was before this, because this will break it, was Giuliani versus Dinkins.
01:44:09.000You just didn't have the turnout with independents that you would need to make up the voter registration disadvantage that Republicans have in New Jersey.
01:44:17.000New Jersey has such a bad disparity between Republicans and Democrats and voter registration numbers that you depend on a more conservative, independent turnout.
01:44:29.000And again, I'm going to tell you this.
01:44:30.000I mean, you have independents on the ballot.
01:44:37.000And that's why they fund and help these candidates to split because a few thousand votes here and a few thousand votes there goes a long way to helping you win a gubernatorial.
01:44:50.000And again, the Republicans are really bad at this.
01:44:54.000John McCain always split his opponents, his opponents' vote by getting Green Party candidates on the ballot and independents that split them.
01:45:02.000John McCain, you can disagree with John McCain all you want.
01:45:06.000Well, it was just, I mean, this is just a technique element of elections is that you've got to register more voters to give yourself a shot.
01:45:48.000I am looking at that, and they did adjust it that there's a little bit more vote out there.
01:45:54.000I just don't know how he's going to get to 44%, which is what, I mean, look, you know, obviously that's a county where Democrats used to have a trouble in.
01:46:04.000You know, I mean, just going back, not that long.
01:46:06.000You know, George Bush did great in Loudoun County.
01:46:09.000It's just one of those where if Republicans don't meet a certain floor, which Junkin, he got 44% of the vote in Loudoun.
01:46:16.000Right now, Mayoris is, he's just, he needs a few more points.
01:46:20.000I don't know how 6% of the vote that's been counted already, 6% more of the total vote cast.
01:46:27.000I don't know how that's going to get him another three points.
01:46:45.000If he doesn't make it up in Chesterfield, I mean, the one good thing, and I'll leave it at this, but I mean, again, it's, I mean, I'm really getting in the weeds here, and it's just not that much.
01:47:57.000Cliff, you know, we're looking at, you know, and obviously, you know, we want to say congrats to everybody, turning point action, NJ Chase, early vote action, to everyone who fought hard in New Jersey.
01:48:10.000We always knew that this was going to be something that, again, it was not supposed to be a competitive race at all.
01:48:17.000We were trying to fight against the trend.
01:48:18.000But Cliff, so looking at some of this going ahead towards maybe a 2028, looking at some of the trends, Cliff, what are some of the pieces that you'd want to put together for the infrastructure that we're going to need to build out in New Jersey if Republicans want to remain competitive there?
01:48:36.000Yeah, well, let me start off by saying, you know, I appreciate all of the activists.
01:48:57.000We were hoping to see tremendous numbers there.
01:49:01.000Republicans are doing okay, but the fact that Democrats are adding votes, and like you said, I mean, Tyler, one of the things that you just kind of hit me with is this idea that we really worked to turn out Republican voters, right?
01:49:14.000And so they work to turn out independents.
01:49:38.000What did that look like compared to what the campaigns were spending in those areas, both Democrat and Republican?
01:49:44.000I'm really hoping that he, you know, gives it a little bit of a comeback here.
01:49:48.000I'm not saying he's got a shot at it, but I want to kind of see where our projection came in with the total votes.
01:49:54.000And if it falls way short of the 3 million, then I feel like, okay, at least we understood we had to have a record turnout.
01:50:01.000But yeah, I don't really have an answer other than, you know, we gave it a shot here.
01:50:05.000I appreciate all the work that everybody did.
01:50:07.000And I think it's about us figuring out where do we put resources for 2026 that can best be utilized.
01:50:13.000Well, I mean, I could tell you right away on New Jersey.
01:50:17.000Here's the first thing that I will say.
01:50:20.000I mean, there has to be significant upgrades in how many ballot chasers that are put out into the field.
01:50:29.000It's not going to be enough to have a few hundred people out into the field.
01:50:35.000You know, Cliff, yeah, all by himself that's out there.
01:50:39.000It has to be a well-funded, well-oiled machine of thousands of full-time people who are chasing people and making sure that they get their ballot in earlier.
01:50:48.000And, you know, again, this isn't something, again, that we endorse.
01:50:52.000So we say this all the time at turning point action.
01:50:54.000We don't endorse the Democrats' playbook of early ballots, early votes, the way that they've changed these elections and turned them into multi-week, multi-month processes.
01:51:05.000However, in the states where they've done that, they're getting the advantage.
01:51:09.000And when you have, again, here in Arizona, when we won Arizona by the widest margin last election cycle, we stayed out ahead of the Democrats by seven to 10 points throughout the entire election cycle and early voting.
01:51:23.000The Republicans are going to have to do that, where you have to be seven to 10 points ahead of your own percentage of how many total voters that you have.
01:51:33.000It's ideal to be seven to ten points ahead of the Democrats, which is what we did here in Arizona, of how many total votes have been cast.
01:51:41.000And that's really important for, again, the lessons.
01:51:44.000This is just, this isn't like really difficult science here.
01:51:47.000This is just if I'm winning the baseball game, if I want to win the baseball game, the World Series just wrapped up, I would rather be up a few points in early innings than trying to make up points, make up runs in the later innings.
01:52:03.000And this is what we learned going from 2022 to 2024 was that in 2024, it wasn't just a couple of weeks at the end where these ballot efforts, chasing the ballot efforts went into play.
01:52:18.000It was an entire year of building infrastructure, of building those coalitions, of building the connections on the ground, finding and identifying who those highly motivated people are who wanted to be county captains and precinct captains and sort of the chief activists for their area and then working those universes up and down with the doors, knocking on them, going after the ballots.
01:52:43.000And so you just need, you just need more infrastructure and more time.
01:52:47.000That being said, though, this is you look at where New Jersey is right now.
01:52:51.000This is where Pennsylvania was a couple of cycles ago, right?
01:52:55.000So when we're looking at this in alternative, people are going to go, oh my gosh, how could this happen?
01:53:02.000This wasn't supposed to be a competitive race at all.
01:53:05.000New Jersey is a blue state, we were told.
01:53:08.000New Jersey is a state that couldn't possibly elect a Republican.
01:53:13.000But when you dig into these numbers and you look at the trend line on this, there's going to be a lot of things that we take away from it.
01:53:19.000And I really do think having a more flushed out and long-term infrastructure there is going to be a huge investment that I hope to see, by the way, from the National Party level.
01:53:29.000And then working as well with these various groups that, you know, obviously we're all members of.
01:54:15.000We're looking at this in New Jersey as it's coming in.
01:54:18.000It's estimated that about the remainder of the vote is going to be about split.
01:54:24.000And so that's just, again, they're fairly evenly split.
01:54:29.000Right now, Jack is down, give or take, about 200,000 votes, which is a significant increase.
01:54:37.000It's more than two times the amount that he lost by last time.
01:54:41.000So, you know, if he's got some places that he needs to make up votes, it's going to have to happen in a lot of different places across New Jersey that are more rural.
01:54:52.000Again, the likelihood of that happening is probably low to be real, but we still have a lot of these Republican areas have not been counted or reported yet.
01:55:03.000Speaking of Kit Kat Zone, Kit Kat Maher also donated.
01:55:07.000I'm in New Jersey and my county, Ocean County, is red, but we are stuck with these lib losers ruining the area and I can't move yet.
01:55:16.000Thank you so much for doing the show, everyone.
01:55:34.000But where you really need people, where you really need to be out there fighting is when it's tough, when there's losses, when people get disappointed, when they feel down.
01:55:43.000You have to always be rallying people, motivating people, getting them back up to fight again because the fight is forever.
01:55:51.000And really, it only ends when you decide to quit and go home.
01:55:55.000Look, we all sat here with Charlie Kirk on election night in 2022.
01:56:01.000And we all know that that race, that night, did not go the way any of us wanted.
01:56:05.000I think Reddit made a whole, you know, a whole kind of thing about it on us.
01:56:10.000And look, we're not going to play that game anymore because we understood that what Charlie Kirk did was he looked at 2022.
01:56:19.000He understood it from a lessons learned perspective.
01:56:22.000And then he incorporated those lessons into the work and the infrastructure and the plan for 2024 and the coalition and the low-prop voter work that was done in that year.
01:56:37.000So what are we going to do tonight with 2025?
01:57:09.000Got to allow people to get in their mail ballots from Guam or whatever.
01:57:13.000I mean, I'm going to tell you, probably one of the most interesting things that's going to happen tonight is this New York City race.
01:57:19.000And even no matter what, even if Mom Donnie takes it as expected, it's going to be interesting to me how much he takes it by because there seems to be a debate over that.
01:58:14.000And I just got to, I'm going to reiterate what I said when he was at 300,000 votes.
01:58:19.000We are being told, when we were told in the minutes, in the hours after Charlie Kirk's murder, that we have to unite, that we have to unite and stand against political violence.
01:58:31.000Well, in Virginia, and this type of rhetoric, which I certainly do agree, that we have to unite against that.
01:58:39.000And I'm more than willing to do so with anyone who's willing to do that.
01:58:43.000But now I see 800,000 people, many of whom are Democrats, just voted for Jay Jones, who's a guy who wants to kill my children, who wants to kill Tyler's children, who wants to kill the children of conservatives.
01:59:00.000He said this and emphatically harassed people about this.
01:59:06.000So how exactly are we the ones who need to unite when it was our friend who was murdered and it's the Democrats that in the numbers of hundreds of thousands are electing a candidate who has said he wants to kill our children?
01:59:40.000And this is someone who didn't even threaten the life of two parents, loving parents, but then these two children then doubles and triples down on it and says, quote, only when people feel pain personally do they act on policy.
02:00:32.000And it's just literally complacency is a cancer.
02:00:36.000And Republicans have gotten too comfortable.
02:00:38.000But also, Republicans are, they spend too much time in fighting than they do actually spending time on the wars and the battles that matter.
02:00:46.000And that is a sign that we have too much time on our hands.
02:00:50.000We are sitting back too comfortable that we are infighting.
02:00:53.000This is the debate that, you know, that was kind of brought up by Jack.
02:00:57.000He said, and sorry if I'm exposing you on this and you don't want me to say this, Jack.
02:01:15.000There are types of e-drama that, because you were meant, because I was specifically referring to the people who were not calling you out, I promise.
02:01:24.000But what I'm saying to this is that, yeah, I think it does matter a little bit.
02:01:30.000And here's the reason why it matters: is because your best people that have to go out and do the door knocking and do the work are usually the people who are paying the most attention now in the public sphere on X and some other places, but mostly X.
02:01:43.000And those are the people that's where they go.
02:01:45.000I mean, we've seen it because our activists, our top activists, are all super active on X.
02:01:50.000And when you have drama on X, we've seen some of that this last year's couple.
02:01:56.000And I have a tweet up right now talking about this.
02:01:58.000So I was specifically talking about conservatism or excuse me, criticism of Ali Bastucki.
02:02:05.000But I've also said that we've now seen the last few weeks of a bunch of people online who have spent their time engaged in e-drama, spent their time engaged in cancellation efforts and turf out efforts and just infighting rather than engaging in get out the vote efforts.
02:02:27.000And if you're not engaged in get out the vote efforts, if you're not out there holding rallies, if you're not out there working on this to fight in the elections, then you are basically helping the Democrats.
02:02:37.000And we've seen people, and I saw even this week, even Andrew Colvett just came back.
02:03:00.000If anybody wants to come at me about this, I'm more than happy to drop receipts that didn't post a single thing about voting in this election.
02:03:25.000And I also think that there was super low-hanging fruit this election cycle with what Winsom Earl Sears chose to spend, you know, ad money on.
02:03:35.000You saw with Gavin Newsom, he told Charlie, he was like, the best ad that you guys had was, you know, Trump's for you, Kamala's for they, them.
02:03:52.000My opponent has endorsed candidate and refused to condemn a candidate who wants to kill your children.
02:03:58.000I want to make sure that men cannot come in your children's locker rooms, your daughter's locker rooms.
02:04:04.000There's low-hanging fruit this election cycle.
02:04:06.000And I feel like we totally missed the opportunity.
02:04:11.000So, Cliff, let's extrapolate some of this.
02:04:15.000You know, what, if any, wins can we take from this?
02:04:19.000What are the losses that we need to make sure we fix moving forward?
02:04:24.000Yeah, so I think first off, you know, there's a lot of lessons here.
02:04:28.000I mean, Tyler probably was right to give me the warning that is, you know, if you're not going to permanently be somewhere, which is Jersey, you know, you don't have that infrastructure, you need to really think about is it worth it?
02:04:37.000And do you have a four to six year plan to be there?
02:04:39.000So I think that's a really good question.
02:04:41.000I still want to see where these election day results come in, right?
02:04:46.000I want to see if some of the, you know, some of the on-the-ground work that we were doing led to people voting on election day, whether it did not or whether it did.
02:05:07.000Those are pretty much impossible to win.
02:05:09.000I get a lot of people got excited about them, but they're not winnable.
02:05:13.000But all the down ballots are where we are pretty fascinated at the moment.
02:05:16.000And I want to see, you know, were the Democrats that good at turning people out that they got them to vote the entire ballot in Pennsylvania?
02:05:23.000Or are a lot of these people just coming in and bullet voting?
02:05:26.000But my biggest takeaway is, yeah, I mean, you got to pick the states where you have the resources and that you have the ability to win based on the demographics.
02:07:49.000And there is still a reticence within sort of the donor class on the right to not want to participate in ballot chasing, in door knocking, and get out the vote.
02:07:59.000And that's the infrastructure piece that we have to make sure is robust if we're going to compete, especially in off-cycle elections.
02:08:05.000Again, my hope is that we're going to be able to make up the Delta in a presidential election year.
02:08:12.000But, you know, that's a hope and a prayer.
02:08:15.000We have to actually do the work and build the machine if we're going to get there.
02:08:20.000We have Blake Neff joining us again here.
02:10:42.000And maybe we do actually focus something in.
02:10:44.000And I think that you didn't see that until September 10th took place.
02:10:48.000And so that's what really catalyzed this.
02:10:51.000Now, that being said, it was only like two months of runway.
02:10:55.000And it's not like people immediately started deploying to New Jersey.
02:10:59.000So it was really this one-month crapshoot to see could, you know, could there be enough momentum to overcome what Tyler was talking about earlier, the massive Democrat registration advantage.
02:11:10.000And no, it wasn't enough this time around.
02:11:12.000But when you look at it, and I'm just going to say it again, New Jersey tonight is where Pennsylvania was a couple of cycles ago.
02:11:18.000Here's one of the key differences that I'm picking up, and I want to toss this to Cliff, is that Trump isn't going to be on the ballot in the midterms.
02:11:28.000He's not going to be on the ballot in midterms.
02:11:30.000So how do you engage those people that would come out and vote for Trump, but aren't even paying attention to the election if Trump isn't there?
02:11:40.000That's what a low prop or even a no prop voter is, no propensity voter.
02:11:44.000My argument saying, going to Maha is saying you've got to go to each individual coalition of the Trump 2024 winning team and engage all of the different facets of it.
02:12:13.000I'm not sure, but it does show that if you want that blueprint to win without Trump, you've got to find a way to engage on this.
02:12:20.000Cliff Maloney, are you picking up what I'm putting down?
02:12:23.000Yeah, look, let's sound the alarm here.
02:12:25.000We have a low propensity problem in the Republican Party that, you know, just a few cycles ago was flipped and it was a problem on the Democrat side.
02:12:34.000I'll give Tyler Boyer a lot of credit when he says that the only way to fix low propensities is to build relationships with them, right?
02:12:41.000To do what the Democrats do, to run these reminder campaigns.
02:12:56.000We need to put more bodies on the ground in some of these states.
02:13:00.000I feel like in 2024, a lot of us got lucky.
02:13:03.000I'll just say that because Trump was able to carry the mantle and he was able to push and motivate a lot of people that we just weren't able to get to at the door.
02:13:11.000We don't have Donald Trump on the ballot anymore.
02:13:14.000And so I think you're right when you say like this is going to be a numbers game.
02:13:18.000And I think we're going to analyze all the results.
02:13:20.000We're going to see what we need to do.
02:13:22.000And we need to keep building permanent infrastructure.
02:13:24.000I don't think that this proves that what we're doing is not working.
02:13:27.000I think if anything, it shows we've got to double down and really figure out how to beat the Democrats at their own game.
02:13:34.000These initial numbers that came in, they very much surprised me, right?
02:13:38.000I thought that a lot of these independents were going to break for Jack.
02:13:41.000I thought a lot of these people that were going to come in.
02:13:43.000I mean, we're seeing now that some Republicans did vote for Cheryl.
02:13:46.000I mean, based on some of these crossovers, you know, we're down about 197,000 votes the last time I checked.
02:13:56.000It's a disappointment, but I think there's a lot of lessons for us to learn here.
02:14:00.000And, you know, I think Jersey was a nice wake-up call that we definitely have a low propensity voter problem on the Republican side, and we need to fix it.
02:14:10.000Yeah, so Holly wrote in and she says, hi, Andrew, it is a referendum on Trump.
02:14:15.000And we've been emailing Charlie for months.
02:14:17.000He needs to focus on American citizens for the love of God, not other countries.
02:14:24.000Do you think that this is sort of like a confluence of a couple bad things happening all at once where we've got a low prop situation that's going on?
02:14:32.000But we also, you know, Trump's dipping in some of the polls right now, right?
02:14:44.000It's a confluence of a bit of a referendum on where the focus is.
02:14:47.000Well, I wouldn't necessarily say where the focus is.
02:14:51.000I mean, but I do agree with you that voter, look, voters vote more on pocketbook issues and kitchen table issues than they do on issues that have to do with things that are overseas, right?
02:15:06.000And I kind of see where the administration is sitting there, you know, going, well, wait a minute, we've done all this work on these peace deals.
02:15:13.000We fought so hard to get this to end wars, which are obviously serious strategic problems and serious wins.
02:15:21.000But at the same time, it's what the voters are focused on.
02:15:26.000And cost of living in some of these areas is still a huge issue.
02:15:30.000That's something that they're obviously responding at the ballot box with.
02:15:34.000And there's a lot of people saying, look, I don't think the economy is working for me.
02:15:39.000We do have a huge problem of mass migration in this country.
02:15:43.000You're going to see that, by the way, rear its head when the New York polls close here in just a couple of minutes, 12 minutes until they've closed.
02:15:50.000And we start getting those Mamdani numbers out.
02:15:53.000And so, yes, it really just does come down to it's the economy stupid.
02:15:58.000And when voters see more of that engagement on economic issues, when the Maha Coalition sees more engagement and more wins for Maha, that's something that's going to put that front and center.
02:16:11.000But if you're not focused on those issues every single day, and by the way, I don't mean like talking about it.
02:16:16.000I mean actually putting up the W's, putting points on the board, getting wins, getting prices down for people everywhere.
02:16:24.000That's going to be what people want and that's people want to be able to see.
02:16:28.000And yes, that then also includes like, you know, going, you know, go to the factories that are reopening and cutting the ribbon when the new factory reopens and seeing people flooding to, you know, flooding into those jobs.
02:16:42.000Like those are the type of optics that you want to start to be seeing that will directly translate to votes in the midterms.
02:17:21.000Like, being a criminal makes you a better Democrat, probably.
02:17:27.000He might go actually kill a baby and get elected president.
02:17:30.000Yeah, I just, we had a, we have a guy threatening to kill kids.
02:17:33.000We got a communist that eats food with his hands.
02:17:36.000This should be a warning sign going into the midterms that if we can't put up good numbers in races like these, or at least could have some good results.
02:17:45.000Again, Cuomo is not a great candidate.
02:17:53.000I mean, big picture, I want to flag this as an issue.
02:17:55.000Well, you can put some blame on Sli-Wa for not dropping out.
02:17:58.000But another thing is, I think Sli-Wa was basically the only one who ran in the Republican primary.
02:18:03.000So we're stuck in a case where we don't have a terribly serious candidate who could, you know, let's say a guy who could conceivably become mayor.
02:18:11.000You know, maybe if a really radical guy won the Democrat or if another guy had to drop out, you need a credible candidate.
02:18:18.000And if we had a credible candidate, we would have been able to pressure Cuomo to stay out.
02:18:21.000We would have been able to possibly get more momentum for a Republican alternative, whether it's just run a normal cop or run a normal businessman or run a guardian angel.
02:18:34.000It's like a guy who a guy who we shouldn't be running a guy for mayor of the biggest city in America who looks like he's a character in a Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles episode.
02:18:56.000I love how every debate that would happen or a question they get, it would be like, you know, they would answer a very normie and then he gets Sleewa and he's like, I was shot 15 times by the Cavitis and Gamboni.
02:19:08.000You know, you can, I don't mind him, but there is this element of this is serious business.
02:20:04.000We'd love his energy to come out and do any of these rallies or to try to help some of these candidates.
02:20:10.000But that can't be the easy excuse, right?
02:20:12.000We have to come up with other solutions the way the Democrats do.
02:20:16.000And by the way, and I would just say, you know, it's a night like this that, you know, and every night, but it's really a night like this when Charlie's voice is, you know, very palpably felt.
02:20:30.000You know, the absence of it is very palpably felt because, you know, it would be at a time like this where I know for a fact that Charlie would be calling up all of his contacts in the, you know, the sort of the political shop, calling up all of his contacts across the RNC, and he'd be saying, you know, hey, guys, this is what I'm getting.
02:21:00.000And now you just don't have Charlie doing that.
02:21:05.000And so those conversations, and I'm not going to say, look, we're going to have those conversations.
02:21:08.000I'm going to have as many of those conversations as I can.
02:21:11.000But, you know, not having Charlie around to be able to be that leader and that focal point for so much of where the base is at, you know, between the grassroots and the higher ups.
02:21:22.000I think it's, I think it's very rough.
02:22:13.000They can gin up support, but they don't win elections.
02:22:16.000It is the process of putting pieces of paper into the boxes.
02:22:19.000And by the way, one thing that Charlie and Tyler, and oh, actually, Andrew, you talked about this a lot was, and we know this, that one of the big things that we didn't have in this election, and I certainly hope we get back for 2026, Elon Musk.
02:22:35.000And Charlie understood the importance of having Elon, the importance of having his impact on the political scene, and was something that he was working very hard to restore because Elon Musk was a huge, huge part of that win in 2024.
02:22:49.000So we got a couple, we got a lot of emails from people.
02:22:53.000Cheryl says, could the election results be an immigration backlash?
02:22:58.000If so, GOP needs to focus its messaging on 2026.
02:23:01.000I think she's probably getting to the fact that, you know, there's a lot of energy on the left about how we're overzealous and we're overreaching.
02:23:12.000And to that, I would say, yeah, we always need to make sure that we're messaging.
02:23:16.000I think this is why Trump kept saying the worst first, the worst first.
02:23:20.000He was trying to calm the temperature down.
02:23:22.000And maybe there is more backlash on that.
02:23:24.000As soon as you close the boat border, it's like people forget that there was an invasion like six months ago.
02:23:41.000Why are they so radical on this issue?
02:23:43.000It's genuinely terrifying to think about.
02:23:45.000Like, I mean, we can see how they do it in the UK if you want a good model.
02:23:49.000In the UK, their courts have ruled you cannot deport an Afghan migrant for any reason, including if they're a gang rapist, including if they are a murderer.
02:24:00.000And, you know, I kind of think the next step for Democrats is probably they will be like, let's find every rapist we can around the world and buy them a free plane ticket into America so that we can buy them a free home to live in.
02:25:07.000I mean, I didn't even know that was the email, but that's exactly what I think.
02:25:12.000I think it's exactly one of the things that helps to make the president's argument for him.
02:25:16.000If people are upset about the economy, if people are upset about the lack of action, well, and guess what?
02:25:21.000The average person out there, the average voter, the average normie, they don't understand the filibuster, the inside baseball kind of stuff in D.C.
02:25:29.000They just know Republicans are in charge and they don't understand why things aren't happening.
02:25:33.000Look, the president led with this message today, knowing that we were heading into a bloodbath a little bit today.
02:25:40.000I mean, obviously, the president's team have eyeballs and they see polling and they know how things are looking and their sentiment on the ground and the inside scoop from for all the top campaigns.
02:25:54.000But he led with that message today for a reason, which was that you have people who are not motivated to get off their butts, off their couch to go out and vote.
02:26:04.000And that's the most basic form of civic engagement.
02:26:08.000And that's the most basic form of giving a pat on the back to the president and to Congress.
02:26:17.000And this is a really bad sign, as per what the president was saying today, that next year we are going to lose the House.
02:26:28.000They're going to spend all of their time attacking Trump, that they're going to waste all their time trying to, you know, trying to invoke every possible throw everything that they can at President Trump to ruin the last two years of his tenure.
02:26:43.000And today is the big warning sign for all Republicans that we have to get our stuff together.
02:26:50.000Now, the benefit is this, is that there is a ton of money that is being raised by the Republican National Committee, by the Trump campaign, and that needs to be deployed pretty dramatically and pretty significantly in some of these places.
02:27:06.000I would venture to say that there hasn't been enough effort, and this is an RC.
02:27:12.000The question again is that there hasn't been enough effort in killing multiple birds with one stone, which is that you have key target states with key target races that have to be invested into for years in advance, like four years, six years in advance, not a year or just a few months or even a few weeks before the election.
02:27:31.000It's interesting, especially on this, on this filibuster question, Tyler, because you seem to come out in favor of it.
02:27:38.000I'm a little bit more hesitant on Blake's camp, but I will say that JD Vance came out at Ole Miss and he said, we need to stop being afraid to do things just because we think that then Democrats will do it too.
02:27:50.000He's like, they're already going to do it.
02:28:47.000You have to be ready to claw away that regulatory morass that the bureaucracy has been relying on to make America the way it is for these past few decades.
02:28:58.000If you are ready to do that, then by all means, kill the filibuster because you have something you're going to do.
02:29:03.000But I have this feeling that the only thing they're going to do with a nuked filibuster is reopen the government and refund SNAP.
02:29:11.000And then they'll futz around for a year, lose the midterms, and then go, oh, well, now there's no filibuster.
02:29:18.000Democrats very much have an agenda they would like to execute as soon as they're in power.
02:31:01.000So you have an early indicator for some of these early votes that you expect that were there to pre-tabulated going in.
02:31:09.000So this is like the polls just closed three minutes ago.
02:31:12.000So these are early tabulations that it does look like Republicans moved away from Sliwa towards Cuomo, which is a good indicator.
02:31:22.000With right now on the early vote, Cuomo only about 12 points behind.
02:31:28.000The question is, is that going to be enough with Election Day votes to make up with the tightness in the polls?
02:31:35.000So again, Staten Island went for Cuomo.
02:31:38.000So you have Staten Island, which is heavily the heaviest Republicans per capita within New York City.
02:31:47.000They were split on Sliwa and Cuomo, and Mom Donnie came in dead last with 30,000 votes for Andrew Cuomo, Sliwa, and that's about 40% of the votes are in Staten Island.
02:31:59.000So you've got a long way to go here tonight.
02:32:03.000Yeah, so if we look, Manhattan, 52-44, Mom Donnie.
02:32:08.000The Bronx, 52-38, Mom Donnie over Cuomo.
02:32:34.000Mom Donnie, you don't have any consequences.
02:32:38.000I think Looks like the estimation is that Mom Donnie is going to increase his lead, actually, not shrink his lead, because Republicans are going to vote in person insignificant.
02:32:50.000So it's going to split more of the vote from Cuomo.
02:32:53.000I don't think it'll shift too much from Commonwealth.
02:34:06.000He's a guy who, he like, he sees it as a his political cause is sort of bringing down the West, humiliate, like to lay low and humiliate people that he thinks are the reason the places he came from weren't nice.
02:34:20.000So he wants to, that's why he's like, wants to tax white people.
02:34:24.000He wants to punish white people for the crime of ever being wealthier than the country he came from.
02:34:29.000And there are a lot of people who pointed out that this is not too dissimilar from some of Barack Obama's rhetoric in Dreams of My Father, that, you know, his father having been this anti-colonialist in Kenya, and so, you know, really came into this, like, this is why you saw Obama return the bust of Winston Churchill, right?
02:34:54.000You know, I think it was like his first week in the White House, and you saw a lot of these elements.
02:34:58.000And he kind of, you know, didn't embrace all of it publicly, but you saw it early on.
02:35:06.000You saw, especially in the second term of Obama, Tyler, you remember this, that that was when we saw the huge expansion of Black Lives Matter.
02:35:14.000That's when we saw wokeism really took off.
02:35:17.000And a lot of it goes to this third worldism that Blake is talking about where specifically, and by the way, at the same time, Mondani has a tweet up.
02:35:25.000It's right there on his account from 2020.
02:35:28.000I think it was the day the George Floyd video came out on May 29th, where he said, he said, the black and brown alliance will defeat white supremacy.
02:36:41.000Swimmaroo says Trump and his focus on foreign policy was not on the ballot, but these state and local candidates needed to message why the foreign policy will lead to better times here.
02:37:21.000I don't know how big, like something that direct would be.
02:37:25.000Yeah, we had Dr. Oz on today talking about health care.
02:37:29.000And, you know, it's basically, you go back to the fact that we're dealing with the ramifications, the hangover of COVID subsidies in our healthcare system.
02:37:38.000And Republicans are like, hey, there was an expiration date on these for a reason.
02:39:01.000Yeah, I mean, that's just, in the end, you know, what I like to say is you can't be that mad at your opponent for just doing good political tactics.
02:39:08.000And the only counter is you have to do good political tactics yourself and try to win.
02:39:13.000If your opponent makes winning moves, they're just beating you.
02:39:18.000Politics in the end is just a harsh game.
02:39:51.000But this is a self-avowed socialist who's going to fill the void for a party that has no leader.
02:39:57.000And as much as I get excited about the fact that we're finally going to be able to have real, honest discussions about free market capitalism versus socialism, it should scare the heck out of us.
02:40:11.000And I think that's going to be the real test to all of us is to make sure that we can message correctly, that we can expose this type of role of government and thinking that that's what they're supposed to do in our lives.
02:40:22.000This to me is a direct threat to the idea of a constitutional republic.
02:41:46.000And that, of course, will have structural problems for the rest of New York City because he always, the communists always do this and Marxists always do this.
02:41:54.000They claim that they claim that they're for the little guy, but it's always the middle class and the little guy who always ends up getting screwed by them.
02:42:02.000And you're going to see this horrific cycle play out again and again.
02:42:05.000But we have been warning of the rise of this insurgent left-wing populism.
02:42:12.000And Charlie Kirk himself warned about this so much, the rise of Mamdani Nomics, because he said, look, it's resentment.
02:42:21.000Either you get MAGA or you get Mamdani.
02:42:25.000And by the way, you can also throw New York City.
02:42:28.000You can also throw Mangioni in there as well, as we also saw, because if they can't win at the ballot box, they then turn to the bullet box.
02:43:26.000She goes, what does this mean for 2026?
02:43:30.000And Data Republican says, it's a structural problem.
02:43:33.000The machine which spends billions of dollars to employ tens of thousands of civic engagement coordinators can dominate low turnout elections.
02:44:36.000I mean, listen, do I feel as if we're going to be in a good spot two cycles from now?
02:44:41.000Yeah, I think I said this on your show today, Jack, earlier, that I feel like 2024 was the first time that we really broke the bread and understood we had to fight fire with fire.
02:44:52.000I think this is a year of learning, right?
02:44:54.000A year of getting some experience to see, guess what?
02:44:57.000Democrats are just as serious in off years.
02:45:00.000I'm not saying that we're not serious, but the resources and where we're spending time and money, we have to understand this is a business for them.
02:45:08.000And until we take it seriously, look, I just want to make one comment about Jay Jones, okay?
02:45:12.000Because it really bothers me the more I look at this.
02:45:15.000Somebody said, the fact that over a million people voted for this guy, more than a million people voted for someone who said he fantasizes about putting bullets in his political opponent's kids' heads.
02:45:30.000This is not something that we can take lightly.
02:45:33.000And it's not like they're getting people to be inspired by Jay Jones.
02:45:37.000They're just using the current set of rules to win.
02:45:40.000And it should prove to you even more that these are low-propensity, low-information Democrat voters, but they understand how to turn them out.
02:45:47.000And we have to understand how to do that on our side.
02:45:50.000And that's the toughest part that exists.
02:45:53.000And we've been singing this same tune for the last four years, essentially, is until we get serious about this.
02:46:00.000I mean, look, I mean, this is the stark reality is that these elections, our elections are not fully staffed with the get out the vote bodies on the ground.
02:46:12.000And the way that we do this is we're talking not weeks in advance.
02:46:18.000We're talking months and months, if not years in advance, you have to put these bodies on the ground.
02:46:23.000That's not happening in presidential elections to the level it needs to happen.
02:46:27.000It's certainly not happening in midterm elections.
02:46:30.000And that's the fight that we're putting up right now because we're preparing for that here at Turning Point Action in key places across the country.
02:46:38.000But it's definitely not happening in these off-year election cycles and these special elections.
02:46:52.000We've done it in all 50 states, is putting it together and sharing with everyone and saying, this is how many bodies you have to fund.
02:46:59.000And I can tell everybody here, the eyes, how big the eyes get on people who are running campaigns and donors and major stakeholders, when you tell them how many bodies you need and how much it's going to cost, their eyes get really wide.
02:47:16.000But the left doesn't even blink at that.
02:47:18.000They're spending dramatic amounts of money.
02:47:22.000I mean, we're talking tens of millions of dollars in every key target state, every election that they want to win in order to win.
02:47:32.000I mean, look, the reality is in an off-election cycle, you put enough bodies on the ground with the low turnout, and you're usually in the 40s, 30s, 40s, and most of these places.
02:47:44.000You have enough votes to actually upset the left.
02:47:48.000The problem is, is they know that we're not going to fund the bodies.
02:47:52.000And therefore, they don't have to fund as many bodies, even though they're doing way more than we are.
02:48:00.000This is also part of the problem: it's a relational problem.
02:48:05.000Every person that we talk to, we have to build a relationship with.
02:48:08.000This has to be people that we look for an opportunity ahead of the election to become their friend, become their neighbor, not just have conversations with them about Trump or about anything election related.
02:48:25.000And don't get me wrong, there's plenty of Trump fans out there, but having conversations with people that are more neighborly, so then we lead into the election.
02:48:34.000And when you actually show up, they're like, oh, I know who you are.
02:48:37.000I expect you to be at my doorstep, and I'm not going to reject you straight up.
02:48:45.000That's what we teach our people here: build some kind of societal social guilt with your neighbors so that when you show up on their doorstep, they feel like they're indebted to talk to you.
02:48:55.000They feel like they have to talk to you because they're your neighbor and they're going to see you again.
02:49:22.000The community note: campaigning at a polling station is illegal under New York state law.
02:49:28.000But it like it also is revealing of kind of what we're talking about with the machine that you're up against, you know, where you've got actual volunteers campaigning at polling locations against the rules.
02:49:40.000I will say there is one nice piece of information that's coming in.
02:49:44.000Texas Proposition 3, the denial of bail for certain violent or sexual offenses has passed.
02:49:51.000It looks like, look, we got it on the screen there.
02:49:56.000So, that's at least one decent win on the board.
02:50:02.000There is also another big one that I'll share in the chat, but there was a special election that was held in New Hampshire today that went the Republicans' way as well.
02:50:09.000So, there are some silver linings that exist here.
02:50:15.000New York is voting down changing their elections to presidential election years, which means we'll get to have more exciting New York mayoral election streams separate from the others.
02:50:25.000A couple more donations that I want to flag.
02:50:27.000SoCal Girl gave $20 and says, You guys are doing awesome.
02:50:31.000I'm sure this is a difficult evening for you without Charlie.
02:51:26.000Every single election is a turnout race.
02:51:28.000We could, you know, if we had, in theory, 100% turnout of every right-leaning person in California, we could win a lot of races there too.
02:51:37.000We have another big, big deal coming from New Hampshire.
02:51:44.000Manchester, the largest city area in New Hampshire, swing state, New Hampshire.
02:51:50.000Republican mayor was re-elected, which is a huge deal.
02:51:54.000It's the largest metropolitan area, which shows that New Hampshire is totally winnable in 2028, totally winnable in 2026 with the right Senate prowess here.
02:52:06.000And that's a good sign for Republicans.
02:52:10.000There was a winner of the Berlin special election.
02:53:07.000Again, an important point for everyone that's sitting at home because we're looking back and we're like, oh, man, this is so depressing.
02:53:12.000Guys, New York City is a depressing place.
02:53:15.000Not heading in the right direction, clearly.
02:53:17.000New Jersey is heading to the right direction, but not quite there yet.
02:53:22.000And do not forget, like New Jersey, by the way, we didn't even cover this.
02:53:28.000Mikey, who ran in this election as governor.
02:53:34.000Cheryl ran against a absolute lunatic of a mayor and Ross Baraka and from the prayer in the primary against and guys, well, there was a moment.
02:53:49.000There was a moment where the New Jersey Democrats really thought they could make Ross Baraka their candidate.
02:53:56.000This is the guy who got indicted over the ICE stuff.
02:54:02.000He literally is endorsed by all the radicals.
02:54:05.000I think what's interesting, too, is that, so there's a question of what do the Democrats now do with the crazy?
02:54:12.000So do the Democrats double down on crazy because Jay Jones won, saying, I mean, I can't even really think of anything crazier you can say than that.
02:54:41.000They avoided him because they're really trying to avoid the crazy.
02:54:45.000So Mikey Sherrill, knowing that she's going to these suburban pockets of New Jersey, which so much of New Jersey is a commuter, commuter state for New York and Philadelphia and some of these areas, and saying, look, I know that if I embrace this, I'm never going to be elected.
02:55:50.000And that's who endorsed the opponent who could have easily won with a little bit more resources in New Jersey.
02:55:57.000So New Jersey Democrats made the strategic right decision to throw all the resources they possibly could at Cheryl.
02:56:06.000But if you're today, if you're tonight, if you're Jack Chitterelli, this race probably would have been in a lot better of a position running against a Baraka.
02:56:16.000And again, we don't want to have a Mombani situation happen in New Jersey for sure.
02:56:49.000Yeah, I mean, very easily you could have a situation in New Jersey where you have an absolute lunatic of a radical Democrat running against Jack.
02:56:59.000That probably gives Jack a better chance.
02:57:01.000But that's the context of New Jersey right now.
02:57:03.000You have a pretty consolidated Republican Party right now that are, I mean, look, Jack has run now three times.
02:57:10.000So in his last big run, last election cycle was really close.
02:57:17.000And you have a really divided Democrat Party who will bite their, you know, what is it, bite their tongue and suck it up and go vote for the more moderate.
02:57:31.000But you feel something brewing with the Democrat Party.
02:58:13.000But just to, I would add one layer to that.
02:58:15.000Even in the UK and Canada, they have to form a coalition government after the election.
02:58:19.000So you get the benefit of being able to vote for somebody that's ideologically pure before the election more suited to your specific beliefs.
02:59:34.000Momdani, for all of his ideological flaws, was a way better candidate.
02:59:39.000Like a way better, like just from a just pure optics standpoint, how well-spoken he was, what he focused on, tactically, it was way better.
02:59:48.000And not only that, but here's what they're going to do.
02:59:50.000And this is what Blake, you know, you've been talking about as well, is that the Momdani model is going to be the new model going forward.
02:59:58.000And Elon Musk talked about this on Joe Rogan.
03:00:02.000He said they are going to continue importing voters from the, and Blake, you mentioned third worldism.
03:00:08.000You're going to keep importing third worlders into these systems, whether it be city, whether it be a state like a city like New York, a city like Minneapolis, a state like Minnesota.
03:00:20.000We've seen the way they've been able to change the demographics there, Dearborn, Michigan.
03:00:24.000This is going to be the new model going forward.
03:00:27.000Just import your own voters, and then you can run a candidate like Mamdani, and you can win, and it doesn't matter.
03:00:34.000So, there's so much the New York race where it's old New York, and you see old New York kind of lining up on one side of the football.
03:00:42.000And by the way, Trump and Cuomo, right?
03:00:48.000Everybody knows he was a Democrat in those years, and they lined up behind Cuomo.
03:00:52.000Whereas New New York, which is made up of the Gimme Grants, the Yuckies, the Young Urban Creatives, Great Spot Career Line, they all voted for Mamdaniel and look who won.
03:01:03.000Look at this: Upper East Side, Cuomo plus 28.
03:02:10.000Given what we've seen tonight, it would be a huge shock if it doesn't pass.
03:02:14.000If you want some consolation, the nature of it is when you do a partisan gerrymander, it can win you more seats, but it does make you more vulnerable to a wave the other way, which maybe that won't be next year.
03:02:26.000But some year we could have that race where Republicans do well.
03:02:30.000And, you know, it makes it less likely that you'll lose five seats, but more likely that you'll lose 20 seats.
03:02:36.000Yeah, so that's a good point because you can overcook these maps.
03:02:40.000Yes, where you basically spread your margins across too many different district races.
03:02:45.000So there's two different strategies when it comes to maps where you consolidate all of the minority parties' votes into a limited share of districts where, yeah, everybody's kind of locked into their seats.
03:02:56.000Or you take your advantage and you spread it thinner and thinner and thinner so that you can, in theory, win all the races.
03:03:02.000But if you have a wave year, that really makes you vulnerable.
03:03:06.000So be careful what you wish for in California.
03:03:10.000I mean, Mamdani is not in the 15 to 20 point range that was once predicted.
03:03:18.000So yeah, so Kalshi had the race for Mondani, and they were going to see what are the odds on how big of a margin he's going to have.
03:03:29.000And I think it was 25, 25 points was the one that was winning.
03:03:34.000I know we were checking it earlier today, and I don't know.
03:03:38.000I'm going to see where Kalchi had it at the end, but yeah, you're right.
03:03:44.000It's tighter than it's tighter than people realize.
03:03:46.000I mean, some people say, I mean, this is closer to the most recent poll.
03:03:52.000Yeah, actually, there's been a ton of, since we mentioned it earlier, there's been a ton of shift on this question now.
03:04:39.000I'm just telling you: when you look at numbers that are this close and you look at it, and if his margin is the margin of victory, then you're there might be there might be some truth to it here because okay, see, so right now, let's just be honest: so, Zoron minus Cuomo and Sliwa together still has a 1.6-point lead.
03:05:17.000It was almost like he was more friendly with Mom Donnie.
03:05:19.000And the second thing I would say, the second thing I would say is that by splitting our attention across three candidates, it basically prevented the presentation of Cuomo as the anti-Mamdani.
03:05:58.000Listen, I spent a couple years banging my head against the wall helping libertarian candidates and Constitution Party candidates.
03:06:05.000And, you know, I get all the arguments, right?
03:06:07.000You know, oh, well, you know, do we really have to support somebody like Cuomo because they're the viable option?
03:06:12.000And a lot of the third-party candidates say this, but it is a zero-sum game, right?
03:06:17.000I mean, at the end of the day, it's a bad spot for all of us to be in when we're saying to ourselves, hey, the guy that locked us all down and was one of the worst governors in the history of America is now the alternative to socialism.
03:06:29.000Yeah, I mean, sure, it would have been a slower trip to the left, but at the end of the day, it's kind of a bad position to be in.
03:06:35.000And so, I'm not saying we shouldn't have spent any time there, but it kind of was like, you know, you get people frustrated that, like you said, spend all their time with Sliwa, and then you have other people that are frustrated who are trying to spend money and try to help Cuomo.
03:06:48.000It's like at the end of the day, we got to find better candidates.
03:07:00.000I agree with you, Jack, but he is the mayor.
03:07:03.000And this is going to be a problem that we're going to have to deal with.
03:07:06.000Well, and the bigger problem is, I mean, and I'll just say this.
03:07:13.000Nobody else is really saying this overtly, but I think he's a very Obama-esque figure because his voice, his style, the patterns, the type of candidate that he is.
03:07:26.000I mean, this is what happened with Obama, again, in my opinion, is that he got in and he surprised everyone with his coolness and ability to work together.
03:07:39.000And he came off really suave on TV and he won a lot of people over when he won because a lot of people said, remember, if we go, again, going back to that first Obama election, 2008, a lot of people said, oh, this is going to be the worst thing that ever happened to America.
03:08:11.000And I'm afraid with Mom Donny, you're going to see the same thing.
03:08:15.000Where you're going to have A moderate seeming, a moderate seeming guy up front, but in the background, he's running a communist regime.
03:08:26.000Well, it's going to be his appointments, right?
03:08:29.000You're going to have to look at the people he appoints.
03:08:31.000He concerns himself with the people that he sends city money to, which he's going to be, which is what Obama did.
03:08:37.000He would send tax money to these crazy groups.
03:08:41.000Meanwhile, he sits up there and he tries to pretend he's this clean-cut, you know, as Joe Biden would say, articulate figure.
03:08:48.000And then in the background, he's empowering just complete and utter by the way, the Democrats did the same thing with Joe Biden, where they tried to present for as long as they could that Joe Biden was just sort of this normal run-of-the-mill Democrat.
03:09:02.000He's Uncle Joe, he's old Joe, he's a normal guy.
03:09:05.000Meanwhile, Mayorkas is invading the country, flooding the borders, running rampant.
03:09:12.000Chris Ray and Merrick Garland are destroying our legal process, and they're just running an entire patriot purge of the country, locking up thousands upon thousands of patriots, J Sixers and otherwise, and going after Trump like crazy.
03:09:27.000And then eventually, you know, and on the foreign policy front, I mean, it's just like starting wars all over the world with Blinken's absolute utter insanity and Jake Sullivan as well.
03:09:37.000So, I mean, that, but all the while, Joe Biden's like, oh no, things are great.
03:11:47.000Minneapolis will continue to produce content for our show.
03:11:52.000I mean, which is its main purpose, I feel.
03:11:56.000The main purpose is to produce content and for people to go, like, wow, what changed in Minneapolis, which used to be this incredible city?
03:12:03.000People just kind of like sit there with like a bovine look on their face.
03:12:06.000These initial results are, I think, a little bit surprising.
03:12:09.000Obviously, we don't know what part of the city they're coming from because I don't think we have that detail.
03:12:17.000I don't think we have detailed results of where those are coming from.
03:12:21.000But again, just as a reminder, you have this Democratic party, state senator, Omar Fateh, who made news because of his really radical positions.
03:12:33.000What made the news is they rigged the endorsement of the city Democrats, and it seems to have just been straight up cheating.
03:12:41.000They were not public, like they had to revoke it.
03:12:44.000It was clear misconduct on the part of the party, but who knows how much attention that got.
03:12:50.000And the current, the current mayor received backlash.
03:12:55.000Remember, Jacob Fry was the guy who talked about defunding the police originally coming in, right?
03:13:02.000And then he got in and he went super reverse course on a lot of things, obviously, because the city was heading in a bad direction and then lost a lot of the support of the radical Democrats that run the city of Minneapolis.
03:13:22.000So if you got that, I think we had the election results up right now.
03:13:27.000We are at 2,600 votes for Fry and 2,300 votes for Fatteh.
03:13:33.000We're waiting on, we're about 15 minutes away from Arizona results, where we have kind of a couple of important elections just setting the standards here that's coming up here.
03:13:45.000So Blake, tell me some of your thoughts on what the impact is going to look like with Mom Donnie.
03:13:53.000Oh, I mean, there's so many things that can happen.
03:13:56.000I feel like what I constantly hear is people predicting this huge explosion of crime.
03:14:02.000New York, for whatever reason, crime doesn't go up that much in New York.
03:14:06.000They can have urban decay go up a lot, which is not the same as crime, but affects people in a similar way.
03:14:13.000So if Mamdani causes there to be a lot more bums on the subway, maybe more bums on the street, more visible signs of blight in the city, that will affect people, even if they're not really being stabbed or if there's not being more murders, it can still have a similar effect.
03:14:32.000I just say that to set people up because people predicted that de Blasio would see a huge explosion of crime.
03:14:38.000And bluntly, it didn't really happen, at least not in terms of the really bad, violent crimes.
03:14:43.000You just saw, again, that decay that happens that people see and they don't like it.
03:14:49.000But we can't necessarily just say, oh, tons of people will be stabbed.
03:14:52.000I do think he has a lot of other ways to cause real harm that could get attention and create, I guess I'll be honest, a political opportunity for us.
03:15:01.000As an example, I believe he's promised to basically blow up the specialized high schools they have in New York.
03:15:09.000The radical left wants to get rid of the merit-based admissions to Stuyvesant Bronx High School of Science.
03:15:16.000That's a big issue for Asian voters in New York.
03:15:18.000It's a big issue for Jewish families in New York who want their kids to be able to go to these public high schools and have them be merit-based.
03:17:14.000And so not very many votes have been cast or been tabulated, but we'll keep a close eye on that and cover some of that tomorrow.
03:17:22.000And then, of course, the next few minutes, we'll have Arizona results that come through.
03:17:25.000And we'll talk a lot about that tomorrow.
03:17:27.000Hopefully, we'll have some positive things to talk about with some silver linings as we go.
03:17:32.000So should we go around and just kind of give final thoughts here before we head out?
03:17:37.000Yeah, and I'll just kind of bring it back to this.
03:17:41.000You know, Charlie Kirk couldn't vote today, and Charlie Kirk will never vote again.
03:17:46.000And it is your job out there to not only carry on that legacy, but explain why.
03:17:54.000Explain why Charlie Kirk will no longer be voting and also explain why.
03:17:59.000And you've got another data point because 1.3 million people in Virginia just voted for a man who said that he would be willing to kill Republican children.
03:18:11.000So the violence, I don't want to hear any more of this.
03:18:14.000Oh, it's both sides nonsense because it's not.
03:18:17.000Like we now have verifiable quantitative data that can show us the truth.
03:18:21.000But I do also know that Charlie would not be down in the dumps.
03:18:25.000I know that Charlie would be looking at this and saying, what can we learn?
03:18:28.000What are the best lessons that we can take away from this?
03:18:32.000Building the infrastructure and expanding that obviously is the number one because only infrastructure can overcome the gap when you don't have Donald Trump on the ballot.
03:18:42.000Republicans don't win in these states when you don't have Trump.
03:18:46.000Trump has that magic X factor that can get those crossover voters in these Rust Belt states that your typical Republicans just don't have.
03:18:56.000So that's something that, of course, we know that Charlie would be getting into, that he'd be breaking down furiously if he were here right now.
03:19:04.000And I'm sure, by the way, in some place where he's at, that's exactly what he's doing right now tonight.
03:19:10.000But he would also encourage everyone to keep the faith and keep on running the race.
03:19:15.000And that's exactly what we're going to do.
03:20:54.000Donald Trump himself has a great line about that in The Art of the Deal, where he says, I try not to get caught up in any particular moment because everything can change very suddenly.
03:21:11.000And that's why it is our moral duty to keep fighting because you have to be ready for when the moment comes where there's the opportunity to turn things around or when you need to stand in the breach to stop something from getting really bad.
03:21:24.000Charlie said, and he was quoting Dennis Prager in this, where he said, I don't fight because I know I'm going to win.
03:21:28.000I fight because it's the right thing to do.