The Charlie Kirk Show - JUDGMENT DAY 2025: The Election Results Stream

00:00:03.000 My name is Charlie Kirk.

00:00:05.000 I run the largest pro-American student organization in the country fighting for the future of our republic.

00:00:11.000 My call is to fight evil and to proclaim truth.

00:00:14.000 If the most important thing for you is just feeling good, you're going to end up miserable.

00:00:19.000 But if the most important thing is doing good, you'll end up purposeful.

00:00:24.000 College is a scam, everybody.

00:00:26.000 You got to stop sending your kids to college.

00:00:27.000 You should get married as young as possible and have as many kids as possible.

00:00:31.000 Go start a Turning Point USA college chapter.

00:00:33.000 Go start a Turning Point USA high school chapter.

00:00:35.000 Go find out how your church can get involved.

00:00:37.000 Sign up and become an activist.

00:00:39.000 I gave my life to the Lord in fifth grade.

00:00:41.000 Most important decision I ever made in my life.

00:00:43.000 And I encourage you to do the same.

00:00:45.000 Here I am, Lord Museman.

00:00:48.000 Buckle up, everybody.

00:00:49.000 Here we go.

00:00:56.000 The Charlie Kirk Show is proudly sponsored by Preserve Gold, the leading gold and silver experts and the only precious metals company I recommend to my family, friends, and viewers.

00:01:09.000 All right, folks, we are back for the one-year anniversary of the Election Night Super Stream, the historic Election Night Super Stream of 2024.

00:01:22.000 Now, technically, tomorrow night is the official one year because Election Day kind of shifts around.

00:01:28.000 So this year, Election Night is the fourth.

00:01:31.000 Last year, Election Night was the fifth.

00:01:34.000 And of course, it was one year ago today that Charlie Kirk was sitting right here with that incredible historic video, which we play over and over again.

00:01:45.000 Erica running in, hugging him, embracing him, and Charlie giving thanks to God.

00:01:55.000 And Charlie's not here tonight, folks.

00:01:58.000 And we all know why.

00:01:59.000 We all know why that is.

00:02:01.000 But for those of us who are still here, we remember that Charlie Kirk always loved the Election Night Super Streams.

00:02:09.000 This was his Super Bowl, his World Series, his Stanley Cup all rode up and won.

00:02:13.000 So what have we done?

00:02:14.000 We've decided to get the band back together.

00:02:17.000 And so the rest of us, we are all here tonight.

00:02:21.000 Charlie Kirk, of course, on assignment with God.

00:02:24.000 We've got Andrew Colvet.

00:02:26.000 Here, here.

00:02:26.000 Blake Neff.

00:02:28.000 Tyler Boyer.

00:02:30.000 What's up, Jack?

00:02:31.000 My favorite is Blake's.

00:02:32.000 Yeah, Blake, just with a thumbs up.

00:02:33.000 And joining us remote, who was also here one year ago on that stream, Cliff Maloney.

00:02:39.000 What's up, Cliff?

00:02:40.000 Yo, yo. 0.99

00:02:40.000 Good to see y'all. 0.99

00:02:42.000 So guys, what are we doing?

00:02:44.000 We've got a lot of Eastern Pennsylvania out here, not a whole lot of Western Pennsylvania.

00:02:44.000 What are we feeling?

00:02:48.000 Yeah, well, Noah for Mike is out in Yinserland and Sheetsland, Steelers country, Pennsylvania.

00:02:55.000 So we may have to get Yoah for Micah of Turning Point Action up at some point.

00:02:58.000 He is our senior Pennsylvania field rep. But Tyler, that's actually something to point out.

00:03:02.000 Last year, I think we only had one Pennsylvania field rep for turning point action.

00:03:07.000 Now there's a whole team.

00:03:08.000 Yeah, we've got a whole team.

00:03:10.000 And then we had, I mean, if we remember, again, crank back the clock.

00:03:14.000 I don't know if we have the clip from last year.

00:03:16.000 I feel like it'd be worthwhile to just watch replay back the good vibes to start the night.

00:03:21.000 Well, they were, yeah, they played the B-roll.

00:03:22.000 But guys, let's play the clip in its entirety.

00:03:25.000 Let's play it the right way.

00:03:26.000 Fox News decides Donald Trump is president of the United States.

00:03:32.000 We've got our republic back, folks.

00:03:36.000 Let's go.

00:03:38.000 There it is.

00:03:43.000 Everybody should remember this moment.

00:03:45.000 Look, I'm going to echo Charlie from earlier.

00:03:48.000 Remember where you were when this happened.

00:03:51.000 Remember where you were when you realized that the uniparty and all these, you know, just the establishment, you said it's time to actually participate.

00:04:01.000 And look what you guys have done.

00:04:03.000 And if anyone deserves to get tears in his eyes, it's Charlie.

00:04:07.000 I think we all agree.

00:04:08.000 I think Erica was just one of those onions or something in the break room. 1.00

00:04:11.000 No one has worked harder than Charlie.

00:04:14.000 We got to hear some words here from you, Charlie.

00:04:16.000 You put all this together, my man.

00:04:18.000 Let's hear it.

00:04:18.000 I am just humbled by God.

00:04:21.000 It's all good.

00:04:23.000 It's all good.

00:04:24.000 God alone.

00:04:26.000 God alone.

00:04:30.000 Decision desk has it.

00:04:31.000 Pennsylvania.

00:04:35.000 It's beginning.

00:04:40.000 It's crazy that that was one year ago.

00:04:42.000 300 years ago.

00:04:43.000 It feels like that's geez.

00:04:45.000 It feels like even before we get into it, can we just take a moment to talk about that?

00:04:49.000 Like, I mean, that, Blake, what's it like watching that one year later after everything that's happened?

00:04:56.000 It was quite the night.

00:04:58.000 It was man, you're going to make me get this thousand-yard stare.

00:05:05.000 A lot has happened since then.

00:05:07.000 It really is.

00:05:09.000 I always think back when I first started working at Fox, I remember a guy who'd been there longer said, you know, before Trump was a guy, like we'd have to really make up stuff to cover.

00:05:18.000 You know, that's why they'd have to be like, well, let's get an update on Natalie Holloway here because, you know, there'd just be days, there'd be weeks where nothing super interesting was going on.

00:05:28.000 But really, for the last decade, solid, it has truly been very eventful times, constant motion, constant flux, constant change.

00:05:38.000 And so it feels incredible that it was a year ago.

00:05:40.000 And yet, also, a lot happened in that year in the transition, in the early days of the admin, and just in the months since.

00:05:48.000 And a lot's happening up to this day.

00:05:50.000 Even today, there's a bunch of stories that aren't this election that are unfolding.

00:05:54.000 You have the shutdown, you have SNAP, you have the filibuster fight.

00:05:57.000 All of those things are happening, even independent of the elections we'll be watching tonight.

00:06:02.000 I mean, I'm just going to say it feels like that was 10 years ago.

00:06:07.000 Yeah.

00:06:07.000 You know, it's interesting.

00:06:08.000 I've thought about this a lot.

00:06:10.000 I was with Charlie in the studio, actually, in the front building on January 6th, 2021, when everything was unfolding.

00:06:21.000 And we were doing the show together.

00:06:24.000 So, however long ago that was now, I guess it was 45 years.

00:06:30.000 Almost five.

00:06:32.000 And I feel like about five lifetimes have passed since that moment because what that spun off was this mad dash to figure out how to beat them.

00:06:43.000 Right?

00:06:44.000 We had to figure out ballot chasing.

00:06:47.000 We had to figure out the app.

00:06:48.000 We got a false start in 2022.

00:06:51.000 We took a lot of incoming because, you know, Carrie Lake did not win, and everybody blamed us.

00:07:00.000 And we actually didn't even endorse in the primary there.

00:07:02.000 We tried to let the basement.

00:07:06.000 We had not put any boots on the ground.

00:07:08.000 We had no money.

00:07:09.000 We had no money for the boots on the ground.

00:07:11.000 Less than four years ago, so this is 2022 in Arizona.

00:07:15.000 We're obviously headquartered out of Arizona, but the entire Republican national apparatus had said, we've got this.

00:07:21.000 We've got all the bodies on the ground.

00:07:24.000 And that was when we had decided that was the election that ultimately between what had happened between 2020 and 2022 was Charlie sat right there and looked us in the eyes and said, we have to build this thing because nobody else is building it.

00:07:39.000 Well, to your credit, Tyler, I mean, you looked at Charlie and said, we have to build this thing.

00:07:43.000 And candidly, Charlie was like, man, I need another job.

00:07:46.000 Like, I need to, you know.

00:07:47.000 Yeah.

00:07:47.000 Like, I need to say that.

00:07:50.000 But I remember also that and then we decided we had to.

00:07:54.000 Carrie Lake in 2022 was the moment that we decided, hey, we have to build the app.

00:08:00.000 We have to build the ground game.

00:08:01.000 The RNC is not going to get behind it.

00:08:03.000 And I'll never forget, then we went to war with Ronal McDan and the RNC because they weren't getting serious about the reforms that people like you within the RNC were calling for.

00:08:13.000 They wouldn't even acknowledge it at the time.

00:08:15.000 And, you know, there's been significant dramatic movement within the yeah, yeah, yeah.

00:08:19.000 This is a whole different regime at the RNC.

00:08:21.000 Okay, we're not even talking.

00:08:22.000 It's like might as well be a whole other organization in most ways.

00:08:25.000 But let's let's shout out real quick.

00:08:27.000 So we're now up on across multiple platforms.

00:08:31.000 So I want to welcome everybody in.

00:08:33.000 Welcome in Rumble.

00:08:34.000 We're welcoming in YouTube.

00:08:35.000 We are up on the Charlie Kirk X account, the Andrew Colvet X account, Human Event.

00:08:41.000 We are up on TikTok.

00:08:42.000 So thank you for all being here.

00:08:45.000 We will continue the legacy of this super stream because all of us know this was Charlie's favorite, you know, favorite work night of the year.

00:08:56.000 I said it was Charlie's favorite day of the year earlier.

00:08:58.000 People were like, well, what about his birthday?

00:09:00.000 Obviously, he did not like his birthday.

00:09:04.000 No, I think this was his favorite night.

00:09:06.000 At least when it went well.

00:09:07.000 Dude, it really was his favorite night.

00:09:08.000 And by the way, he did the live stream.

00:09:10.000 You know, by the way, he was like a general on a field marshaling the troops.

00:09:15.000 Like he was boom, boom, boom.

00:09:16.000 Okay, let's cut to, let's cut that.

00:09:18.000 So we got to keep the pace up in Charlie's honor.

00:09:21.000 Absolutely.

00:09:22.000 But listen, I just want to spend one last moment memorializing Charlie's that 2022 pivot because that really was the pivot point.

00:09:31.000 And that was when Tyler, you and guys like Cliff Maloney, who's on the stream right now, Cliff, you're in New Jersey, though, right?

00:09:38.000 You're not in PA.

00:09:39.000 Or are you in PA?

00:09:40.000 I am in PA right now.

00:09:42.000 He's in PA.

00:09:42.000 We're jumping back and forth.

00:09:44.000 Yeah, jumping back and forth.

00:09:45.000 Okay, so, but that's when we partnered with PA Chase, Scott Pressler's group.

00:09:50.000 So in Georgia, we were and Charlie, or Charlie dispatched Tyler.

00:09:55.000 So Tyler was behind the scenes flying all over the country, building these relationships and partnerships with local GOPs, county GOPs.

00:10:04.000 Remember, Tyler, then we did the Vegas event where we invited the hundred most critical counties in the country, the GOPs, to come visit us in Vegas, be a part of an event right ahead of the winter meeting, I believe, of the RNC.

00:10:18.000 We got 75 counties represented, plus others, and state GOPs represented.

00:10:23.000 We got them all there and absolutely, I think, revolutionized the way that Republicans, I will never forget that event because it revolutionized the way that Republicans and GOP groups around the country looked at elections.

00:10:38.000 They said that what you guys are doing at Turning Point, and you're breaking down the data, you're making it actionable for us, is going to change the game, especially in 2024.

00:10:47.000 And by the way, all of that came true.

00:10:50.000 And it scared the living daylights out of the establishment.

00:10:54.000 And the Democrats, by the way.

00:10:55.000 And the Democrats.

00:10:56.000 I mean, remember, Andrew and Andrew knows this better than anybody because we had how many reporters went that round?

00:11:02.000 Oh, man.

00:11:02.000 I got so good at the.

00:11:04.000 Reporters were just creeping everywhere.

00:11:06.000 I had to know your business just as well as you knew your business at Turning Point Action because I was having to defend you.

00:11:12.000 And by the way, there were hit pieces.

00:11:13.000 Like the establishment was putting out hit pieces on.

00:11:16.000 I remember that's where that's I was on stage and remember that there was that like Georgia delegation that was kind of like a little bit anti-Charlie and like I got into it with this one guy.

00:11:24.000 Well, a lot of the Georgia delegation was really pro, to be fair.

00:11:27.000 No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, yeah.

00:11:29.000 Yeah, but there were some.

00:11:30.000 I mean, that's how it is.

00:11:31.000 That's how it is.

00:11:32.000 There were some Kemp people that were there.

00:11:34.000 That's what they got into.

00:11:36.000 Remember, that was the, yeah, I remember that went pretty viral.

00:11:41.000 That was not viral.

00:11:42.000 Yeah, but that was the big fight.

00:11:43.000 No, but no, but we're up and you know, so welcoming everyone.

00:11:47.000 And Blake, you mentioned something that you wanted to shout out that we will be reading.

00:11:51.000 Yeah, you know, so if you send in, if you send in live chats on Rumble or YouTube, I'll be checking them.

00:11:57.000 I will be making sure we read them if you donate.

00:12:01.000 So we'll both freedom at Charlie Kirkland.

00:12:03.000 And email us at freedom at charliekirk.com.

00:12:06.000 We already got one from Matt just saying, thank you for doing this, fellas.

00:12:09.000 Thank you for doing this.

00:12:10.000 Charlie would be proud of you all.

00:12:12.000 Keep up the good work.

00:12:13.000 Thank you, Matt.

00:12:13.000 Madeline says.

00:12:15.000 Yeah, Madeline says Election Night Charlie video that we played at the beginning.

00:12:18.000 Lifetimes have passed since last year, but many lifetimes to go.

00:12:22.000 Fight, fight, fight.

00:12:23.000 You're all doing God's work.

00:12:24.000 Thank you.

00:12:25.000 Fight, fight, fight.

00:12:26.000 That would be the most important thing.

00:12:28.000 You know, we've been talking.

00:12:30.000 Tonight is tough races.

00:12:31.000 Tonight is going to be tough elections.

00:12:33.000 We're in blue states primarily and something of a blue up.

00:12:38.000 We might take a good number of losses tonight, but Charlie would be here regardless.

00:12:43.000 He would emphasize the importance of fighting regardless, both in this race and in the races to come.

00:12:48.000 And I want to address something that's like somehow become like an internet thing where people are saying don't vote or whatever.

00:12:54.000 There's like a whole back of which is just like amazing to me.

00:12:56.000 No, Charlie would be a thousand.

00:12:58.000 Cernovich tweeted this and I quote tweeted him.

00:13:01.000 You know, this was like his Super Bowl.

00:13:02.000 Election nights were his Super Bowl.

00:13:04.000 Absolutely, election night was his Super Bowl.

00:13:06.000 He would have been absolutely begging, pleading, screaming from the top of his lungs, vote, vote, vote, fight, fight, fight, never surrender.

00:13:13.000 We are fighting on their terrain.

00:13:15.000 So I want everybody to just put that, what Blake just said in your brain.

00:13:18.000 This is New Jersey.

00:13:20.000 That's a deep blue state.

00:13:22.000 We are within scratching distance of pulling out a miracle in that state.

00:13:26.000 We still have the AG race in Virginia.

00:13:28.000 So let's be getting our numbers ready to go, teams, on these races.

00:13:31.000 We have the three Supreme Court Virginia closes in 12 minutes.

00:13:35.000 12 minutes.

00:13:36.000 And Cliff, give us, how are we looking on?

00:13:39.000 I mean, give us an odds, right?

00:13:41.000 How are we looking on the three no-retention votes on the state Supreme Court justices in PA?

00:13:47.000 I know it's an uphill battle, but like, is there hope on one?

00:13:50.000 Maybe not all three.

00:13:51.000 What's the status?

00:13:52.000 Yeah, so let's chat PA for a little bit.

00:13:54.000 First off, I want to set expectations and make sure that they're in line with reality.

00:13:59.000 In the history of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, only one state Supreme Court justice has not been retained.

00:14:05.000 So we look at this race as if we pull off one of these, not only is it a miracle, but it would really be a redefining of kind of the electorate in Pennsylvania.

00:14:13.000 So that being said, the two races that I'm really interested in are the Superior and Commonwealth Court.

00:14:21.000 We've got two of those that are actual candidates on the ballot, Republican versus Democrat.

00:14:26.000 And in PA, we really don't have much for returns, right?

00:14:28.000 Not at this moment.

00:14:30.000 New Jersey, we've seen a lot more numbers coming out, so I'm happy to dive in on that and give some predictions.

00:14:35.000 But right now, it's those two statewide judicial races, and then obviously all the permanent infrastructure that we're building across Pennsylvania.

00:14:43.000 If you guys are okay with me jumping the jersey, I'd love to share some of the numbers we're looking at.

00:14:47.000 Yeah, actually, Cliff, you know, I realized when we were going around the horn, we didn't really give you a chance to jump in.

00:14:54.000 You were here on the stream with us.

00:14:56.000 You're in that now is your voice in that now immortalized video of Charlie and Erica.

00:15:03.000 Just give us a minute on how it feels on the one-year anniversary of that.

00:15:09.000 Yeah, well, I'm with you.

00:15:10.000 I mean, it feels like it was a decade ago.

00:15:12.000 It really does.

00:15:13.000 You know, I feel like there's been lifetimes that have passed, crazy things, obviously, that have happened.

00:15:20.000 But every time you see that clip, I mean, the special thing about that clip is not just Charlie getting upset, not just Erica coming into the room to embrace him, but it's really the culmination of all of the work that all of us have done for a decade, you know, for longer, right?

00:15:37.000 It was kind of, I mean, listen, I don't want to get sensationalist, but I will say this.

00:15:42.000 I mean, a lot of us think that 2024, if Kamala Harris would have won that election, we would have lost the Republic.

00:15:49.000 Now, I'm not somebody that says that about every election being the most important election.

00:15:53.000 Mitt Romney versus Obama was not the most important election in our lifetimes.

00:15:58.000 I think 2024 was different.

00:16:00.000 And I think every time I watch that clip, I'm reminded about that moment, how much it meant to all of us, how much it meant to Charlie, how much it meant to the entire movement about the work we were putting in actually paying off.

00:16:13.000 And so that's my reaction to that.

00:16:15.000 The other thing I want to give Tyler and the whole team credit for is that alternative RNC event in Las Vegas.

00:16:22.000 I don't think people realize just how significant that was in switching up the establishment leadership and leading to Rana, kind of seeing her way out.

00:16:31.000 Nobody does that, guys.

00:16:33.000 Nobody challenges the GOP establishment.

00:16:36.000 Nobody actually challenges them and wins.

00:16:38.000 Turning point's one of the only groups that pulls that off.

00:16:41.000 It's why I'm so impressed.

00:16:43.000 But that event, people might not even have heard that it went on.

00:16:46.000 It was a seismic shift in the future of the GOP.

00:16:51.000 And I don't think that we should, you know, fail to give it the credit that it deserves to changing the trajectory of the country.

00:16:58.000 Amen.

00:16:59.000 I totally agree with that.

00:17:01.000 And candidly, to my ever-loving shame, I didn't even realize it until we sat down here for the stream.

00:17:07.000 And we're kind of like playing back the last few years because everything, like you said, Cliff, there's been lifetimes that have passed.

00:17:13.000 And I remember when Charlie decided to rip off that tweet heard around the world because Rana came after him.

00:17:21.000 He totally ripped the bandaid, went absolutely directly after her.

00:17:25.000 And then it was like, well, now that we did that, we're going to follow through big time.

00:17:29.000 We're going to do this Vegas event.

00:17:30.000 We're going to absolutely barnstorm the country and go hard.

00:17:34.000 We're going to pour real resources into this.

00:17:36.000 We're going to fundraise for this.

00:17:37.000 People don't understand.

00:17:38.000 When you've got so much over on a C3 with Turning Point USA, and you got people focused on fundraising for that and growing the chapter network and all that stuff, to then pivot and say, hey, we're going to launch this C4 and really in earnest, it was already launched, but to really build resources behind that, the amount of resources and focus and energy, what you're asking, what you're embracing at that moment of what your future life is going to look like, it's basically like you don't stop.

00:18:05.000 You never sleep.

00:18:06.000 You don't stop.

00:18:07.000 There's no weekends anymore.

00:18:08.000 There's no like any of that stuff.

00:18:10.000 And so we were biting off a lot, but it was absolute pure follow through from Charlie and the team.

00:18:16.000 And Tyler, I know you're reviewing numbers here, but like, please don't miss this.

00:18:19.000 You deserve a ton, a ton of credit for how much work you did in that season, too.

00:18:25.000 Because people don't realize this, but Tyler just about burned himself out and ran himself into the ground.

00:18:30.000 Pretty sure you burned out a few thyroid glands as well.

00:18:34.000 Burned out a few thyroid glands.

00:18:36.000 You're one thyroid gland.

00:18:37.000 There you go.

00:18:39.000 All right.

00:18:40.000 Exhausted.

00:18:41.000 What's the right number?

00:18:43.000 Tyler, Tyler.

00:18:44.000 I like this message from Zachary in the Rumble chat.

00:18:47.000 Charlie is one of the smartest guys I've ever seen.

00:18:49.000 He just wanted to better people's lives.

00:18:52.000 Yeah.

00:18:52.000 And he saw that winning elections was a way to do that to hopefully better the lives of all the people in the country.

00:18:58.000 Cliff, you did say earlier you wanted to jump over to New Jersey.

00:19:02.000 Obviously, look, polls are closing here in about six minutes in Virginia.

00:19:07.000 So let's get into it, Cliff.

00:19:08.000 What do you think?

00:19:09.000 Well, and New Jersey and New Jersey.

00:19:11.000 I think New Jersey has no.

00:19:12.000 Oh, wait.

00:19:12.000 No, I keep getting the time zones, man.

00:19:14.000 Another hour.

00:19:15.000 Yeah, one more hour in Jersey.

00:19:16.000 So do not leave the line in New Jersey.

00:19:19.000 If you're in the line, allowed to leave the line.

00:19:21.000 If you're in line by eight in New Jersey, stay in that line.

00:19:24.000 You get the vote.

00:19:25.000 Get in line, stay in line.

00:19:28.000 Cliff Maloney.

00:19:29.000 All right, here's a rundown of the numbers.

00:19:31.000 Right now, we've got roughly 55,000 Republicans that have a mail-in ballot still.

00:19:38.000 We need to get those back in.

00:19:40.000 Look, as we said in the beginning, you know, this is about competing when it comes to vote by mail, hopefully improving when it comes to voting in person early, and then obviously having to dominate election day.

00:19:51.000 So the vote by mail numbers increased, but not a huge margin.

00:19:55.000 The early in-person, you know, we're up about five percentage points.

00:19:59.000 But the real rub is this, and me and Tyler were talking about this offline earlier this morning.

00:20:04.000 We're down about 300,000 votes when you extrapolate out some of where we think independents are going to fall for all of the early voting or the vote by mail.

00:20:13.000 So what does that mean?

00:20:14.000 That means that Jack Chitterelli has to win Election Day voters by greater than a 300,000 vote margin.

00:20:22.000 Now, in 2021, just four years ago, Jack won by just over 200,000, depending on how you look at the numbers.

00:20:30.000 So we need extreme turnout here on Election Day.

00:20:33.000 And we've only got, like you said, an hour and five minutes left.

00:20:37.000 Here's my projection of where we're going to fall based on the total number of votes that come in for this election.

00:20:43.000 If we get 3 to 3.1 million votes, Mikey Sherrill will win.

00:20:48.000 I'm talking total votes if you include all the early and then all of the election day.

00:20:53.000 If we get north of 3.2, Jack Chitterelli has got a shot because he will have increased so much of the election day turnout from four years ago when we had roughly 2.6 million people vote.

00:21:05.000 So that's my prediction.

00:21:06.000 2.6 is how many voted four years ago.

00:21:10.000 If we get north of 3.2, which means adding 600,000 voters, we think there's a formula here to get him across the finish line.

00:21:18.000 But we're not supposed to win this.

00:21:20.000 This is New Jersey.

00:21:21.000 So we're doing the work, but I want to make sure people are holding that expectation that if we win this, it would be a huge flip.

00:21:29.000 And the fact that we're even competitive is something I'm excited about.

00:21:33.000 And Cliff, I mean, the numbers basically pan out.

00:21:36.000 And we're just going to oversimplify this.

00:21:38.000 Essentially, Jack today needed to win by about the election day votes by about 20%.

00:21:47.000 So just to give everybody a proper expectation.

00:21:50.000 A 20% margin.

00:21:51.000 A 20% margin.

00:21:53.000 He needed to win today to effectively get to the number that Cliff is talking about.

00:21:59.000 Which is, that's a relatively fair number.

00:22:04.000 Last election cycle, Murphy won with 1.339 million votes versus Jack's 1.25 million votes.

00:22:17.000 So it was a 3% difference, give or take, 115,000 votes, 116,000 votes.

00:22:27.000 So it was a really close, I mean, we're talking razor thin as they come.

00:22:33.000 Turnout was increased at that point.

00:22:35.000 So turnout in 2021 was a 40% turnout out of the electorate.

00:22:41.000 To put that in perspective, the prior election in 2017 was a 38.5% turnout.

00:22:47.000 And 2013, when Chris Christie won last, it was a 39% turnout.

00:22:53.000 So you're really hovering right around typically a 35 to 40% turnout.

00:23:00.000 Now, in years past, we've seen higher, but the population in New Jersey has dramatically increased, just as it has in many places over the last 10 years.

00:23:11.000 And Jack, break down what you did earlier on the show.

00:23:14.000 I thought it was really fascinating with Rich, where you were talking about the ethnic white population that Jersey has.

00:23:20.000 You were talking about Italians, Polish.

00:23:22.000 Why that makes New Jersey different than New York?

00:23:25.000 Yeah, so we were talking about how the demographic makeup in New Jersey, which is not dissimilar from Pennsylvania.

00:23:32.000 It's very similar to PA, where I'm from, where you've got this working-class, blue-collar, working-class white voter of a lot of Italians, a lot of Irish, a lot of Poles like yours truly here that come in.

00:23:46.000 And those groups are historically Democrat, but have flipped in key races over the years when you look at like Nixon in 6872, when you look at Reagan in 1980 and then 1984, and then of course for Trump himself when he came out.

00:24:07.000 So those are the same groups, by the way, that gave Trump the margin in Pennsylvania because they flipped from D to R, or they were registered D, but were still willing to vote for the Republican candidate.

00:24:19.000 And you see the same type of demographics in New Jersey as well as New Jersey facing the same type of economic headwinds that Pennsylvania has, the deindustrialization, the impact of outsourcing, the impact of financialization.

00:24:32.000 They've all seen these job losses.

00:24:34.000 They've all seen these issues writ large.

00:24:36.000 And of course, massive influxes of the illegal alien population, et cetera.

00:24:40.000 New Jersey, by the way, I think when you actually track it out per capita, New Jersey is the number five state for illegal aliens in the entire country, which is crazy when you think of how small New Jersey is and the fact that it's literally nowhere near the border, but it's because they get it because of because of New York as a point of entry.

00:24:57.000 So when you look at all those things, that's vastly different from Virginia, where, by the way, polls just closed in Virginia.

00:25:04.000 So if you're in line, stay in line in Virginia.

00:25:07.000 They can't make you leave the line.

00:25:09.000 The judge of elections will come out.

00:25:11.000 They'll stand in the back of the line.

00:25:12.000 They're probably going to be out their way right now in the various precincts across the state.

00:25:16.000 Just stay there and, you know, just make sure to stay in line.

00:25:20.000 If you are local, you know, you can tell us what's going on, freedom at charliekirk.com.

00:25:24.000 That's, by the way, for every single state.

00:25:26.000 If you're out there, you're at the elections, tell us what you're seeing, freedom at charliekirk.com.

00:25:30.000 And so Virginia, though, in Northern Virginia, it's those white-collar voters, those white-collar workers.

00:25:36.000 These are your federal government workers.

00:25:38.000 These are people who are furloughed.

00:25:40.000 These are people who are kind of part of that D.C. bubble that's like 97% Democrat.

00:25:45.000 They hate Trump.

00:25:46.000 They go to the No Kings protest.

00:25:48.000 And many of them are going to be voting for Jay Jones because they don't oppose the rhetoric that came out from his text messages.

00:25:55.000 Real quick here, guys, I want to show you just how brutal the D.C. politics is getting, just so we're clear.

00:26:02.000 We got Senator Mark Wayne Mullen who says that there was a backroom negotiation that was conducted by Chuck Schumer with other senators that says to wait until after the election to vote to turn the government back on, to reopen it, because he was fearful that if they didn't keep the government shut, that the voter turnout would sag.

00:26:26.000 So they were using the government shutdown.

00:26:28.000 So people are not getting paychecks.

00:26:30.000 People are not getting snap.

00:26:31.000 All this stuff.

00:26:32.000 Guess who's actually behind that?

00:26:33.000 That'd be Chuck Schumer.

00:26:35.000 Chuck Schumer is keeping the government shut until this election night concludes.

00:26:39.000 209.

00:26:41.000 Last week, Liz, I know Dick Durbin wanted to break with the Democrats and reopen the government.

00:26:49.000 Chuck Schumer in a private meeting with other Democrat senators said that if you'll just wait till after the election, I'll release the handcuffs.

00:26:58.000 I added the handcuff part, but basically I'm paraphrasing what he said.

00:27:01.000 The reason why is because they're afraid their base wouldn't show up today in Virginia, New Jersey, and in New York.

00:27:07.000 So it's been about politics.

00:27:09.000 It's never been about policy.

00:27:11.000 It's been about holding the American people as leverage points, regardless of the damage they cause to the livelihood of these individuals.

00:27:18.000 But elections are more important than the Dems because why they know their polls is at the very bottom than it's ever been for the Democrat Party.

00:27:28.000 Well, we'll find that out later tonight.

00:27:29.000 We will certainly find that out.

00:27:31.000 Blake, you got a question in from one of the emails and big league winning from Joseph.

00:27:37.000 I wanted to know if you wanted to hear that.

00:27:38.000 Yeah, yeah.

00:27:39.000 So first, I also want to thank Usra Furasana for becoming a monthly supporter on Rumble.

00:27:44.000 So thank you very much for that.

00:27:46.000 But yeah, so we got a question here that was basically saying, can we rank the races by how winnable we think they are in order to tell where to look for hope?

00:27:57.000 And I think that's also a good excuse to just rattle off the list of races that we're watching.

00:28:03.000 I think we could probably agree of the major races, the one we're most optimistic on is probably Virginia AG, where we have Jason Mayaz versus, I always forget his name.

00:28:13.000 Who's the child Julian Democrat?

00:28:14.000 Jay Jones.

00:28:15.000 And so that one was looking very rough most of the race. 0.94

00:28:19.000 You know, competitive, but down consistently, probably five points or so.

00:28:23.000 And then he went and said he wanted to kill children because that's the only way that we can have people change their views is if you kill their kids in front of them and then maybe shoot them, too.

00:28:36.000 And kick their duck. 0.99

00:28:37.000 And kick their...

00:28:38.000 Well, yeah, whatever.

00:28:40.000 I don't think he really kicked the dog.

00:28:43.000 It was a funny clip.

00:28:44.000 It was an attempted dog punting.

00:28:45.000 It was an attempted dog punting, yes.

00:28:47.000 I think we can agree.

00:28:48.000 Polls have showed that that one is type.

00:28:51.000 Close, close, but I think that's probably the only one where the prediction markets have us favored.

00:28:57.000 Other races where we have pretty good odds, the Minneapolis mayor's race.

00:29:01.000 It's weird to call this one of our races, but we would, I think, probably prefer Jacob Fry over Omar Vata.

00:29:08.000 And so we prefer neither, but we will.

00:29:11.000 Yeah, I mean, we would prefer maybe Minneapolis just dissolving.

00:29:15.000 I guess it depends on what you want to see the outcome because, I mean, again.

00:29:20.000 Minneapolis is a great content generator if you're a conservative podcast show or something.

00:29:26.000 I mean, the outcome, the pundits are all saying that the current incumbent mayor is going to win.

00:29:34.000 Yeah.

00:29:35.000 But it's like it's not polled heavily, and I believe they have a form of instant runoff voting.

00:29:40.000 But nobody's getting a majority.

00:29:41.000 If Omar wins, this will be a crazy time in America because you'll have Mayor Omar in Minneapolis and you will have Mom Donnie in New York City.

00:29:51.000 And this is the big question because there's been some argument, some debate online about Mom Donnie, you know, how good of a chance Mom Donnie has.

00:29:59.000 We talked about this yesterday on Jack's show.

00:30:02.000 There's a lot of individuals and a lot of polling that's out there that's showing like a 20-point victory for Mom Donnie.

00:30:07.000 There's some people that were pointing to some late polling.

00:30:12.000 I will remind everyone with early voting, the later polling goes, the more it tilts in favor of those who show up on Election Day.

00:30:21.000 And so you have generally a more conservative poll closer to Election Day than you do 10 or 20 days out from Election Day.

00:30:30.000 So if you have early voting in any jurisdiction that is 20, 30, 40 days out, there's somewhere in the middle is a more realistic poll, in my opinion.

00:30:41.000 And that's what we've seen is that polling becomes lopsided closer that you get to the election because people have already cast their ballots.

00:30:49.000 So people either are answering the poll that have already voted or people are answering it incorrectly.

00:30:55.000 Wouldn't that just mean that the polls are kind of irrelevant then?

00:31:00.000 That's what people are saying.

00:31:01.000 Yeah, it's basically irrelevant because it gets tilted more towards the conservative, but it's still a raw number.

00:31:07.000 Generally, I think people get too invested in polls.

00:31:09.000 We're going to get the only poll that matters here in a matter of minutes.

00:31:13.000 And I think we'll know pretty quickly how things are likely to be.

00:31:15.000 Yeah, I mean, but let's go rank order.

00:31:17.000 Oh, go ahead.

00:31:19.000 I just wanted to finish on that thought.

00:31:20.000 New York City, again, there was a lot of hopium happening in the last 48 hours where people were going, I don't know.

00:31:28.000 Oh, it looks like the Atlas.

00:31:30.000 That looks that with the Atlas Intel.

00:31:31.000 I was like, well, it looks like Cuomo has a chance.

00:31:33.000 I want to remind everybody again: when early voting happens and you have an extremely crooked, I mean, you could make the argument that New York City has the most crooked elections in America.

00:31:44.000 Okay?

00:31:45.000 Like, do we agree or disagree?

00:31:46.000 I mean, we literally have to go to the house.

00:31:47.000 California's giving a run for their money, but no, but I mean, yeah, I mean, New York City historically, like, they invented, you know, you have intense, intense union presence.

00:32:00.000 You have all of the international elements that are there.

00:32:04.000 You have all these illegals that are there now voting that they're allowing voting. 0.93

00:32:07.000 And it's a sanctuary city for voting for illegals. 0.55

00:32:11.000 It's not just for a living for illegals.

00:32:13.000 It's now influencing the country.

00:32:16.000 So that's where you, that's what you got.

00:32:17.000 Well, so, Blake, keep on our ranks.

00:32:19.000 So we got, hold on.

00:32:20.000 First, real quick.

00:32:21.000 Tachio44 gave $5.

00:32:22.000 And he has something for Cliff.

00:32:24.000 He says, Cliff, I have to take issue with your cheesesteak recommendations from the other night.

00:32:30.000 Skinny Joe threatened to whack me because my dad saw something.

00:32:34.000 That never happened, of course.

00:32:35.000 I don't even know what that's referring to.

00:32:37.000 But apparently, your cheesesteak recommendations are not credited.

00:32:41.000 They are the cheesesteaks.

00:32:44.000 Okay.

00:32:45.000 I have gotten so much heat for this.

00:32:46.000 I don't know if it was on here or Tim Cass, but I recommended a couple different places.

00:32:50.000 And me and Pat Dugan got into it about what a real Philly cheesesteak is and the generational shift.

00:32:57.000 Anyway, I recommended Skinny Joey's, Skinny Joey, Joey.

00:33:01.000 Merlino?

00:33:01.000 What is it?

00:33:02.000 Am I getting that right, Poso?

00:33:04.000 Merlino.

00:33:04.000 Yeah.

00:33:05.000 So he was connected, did some time, but he's out and he's got his connection.

00:33:05.000 Yeah.

00:33:11.000 Skinny Joey's.

00:33:12.000 No, he was the boss.

00:33:14.000 And literally the boss of the Philadelphia crime family from the 90s until 2024.

00:33:19.000 Listen, I'm not trying to get on any more lists.

00:33:21.000 I'm wanting enough of those.

00:33:22.000 So yes, that was my recommendation, but I'm sorry that they didn't enjoy it.

00:33:26.000 It's a great cheesesteak.

00:33:27.000 Cooper Witt.

00:33:28.000 Cooper Wit.

00:33:29.000 So, by the way, my thing on this, like, I'm very kind of like anti-Philly on this because I think they're all great.

00:33:39.000 I think if you're getting a cheesesteak from Philly, they're all good.

00:33:42.000 I think that Pats and Gino's is perfectly fine.

00:33:45.000 People say, oh, those are for tourists only.

00:33:47.000 No, I mean, it's like, like, people, I'm just going to say it.

00:33:50.000 Like, those are the only ones that have guns.

00:33:52.000 A lot of people in Philly are getting a little bit fat.

00:33:54.000 It's just true.

00:33:55.000 Like, a lot of people in Pennsylvania are getting a little bit fat.

00:33:57.000 And the cheesesteaks are all good.

00:34:00.000 Like, you don't have to be so pretentious about it.

00:34:02.000 They're all good.

00:34:03.000 If you're getting it from Philly, they're good.

00:34:03.000 Quick poll.

00:34:05.000 Quick poll amongst all the gentlemen here, especially those with Philly roots.

00:34:11.000 Is it Provolone, American, or Cheese Whiz?

00:34:15.000 I'm a Provolone or Wiz guy, depending on my movie.

00:34:17.000 No, no, no, no.

00:34:18.000 No, no, big one.

00:34:19.000 Cooper Sharp, Gundier Hen.

00:34:20.000 Cooper Sharp.

00:34:21.000 Come on, Cooper Sharp.

00:34:22.000 It's the new generation.

00:34:23.000 Whiz?

00:34:24.000 Cheese Whiz?

00:34:24.000 Yeah.

00:34:25.000 All right.

00:34:25.000 Hey, Cliff, that image you sent, we've got it loaded.

00:34:28.000 215, if you want to explain what we're looking at here.

00:34:31.000 Cooper Sharp is good too, actually.

00:34:32.000 Cliff, are you Cheese Whiz?

00:34:34.000 No, he said Cooper Sharp.

00:34:36.000 He said Cooper Sharp.

00:34:37.000 No, Cooper Sharp.

00:34:38.000 Okay.

00:34:39.000 All right, throw it up.

00:34:39.000 When they have the Cheese Whiz with the Home Depot.

00:34:42.000 When they have the Home Depot paint stir to stir the Cheese Whiz, you know you've lost the narrative.

00:34:48.000 All right.

00:34:48.000 That's how you know.

00:34:49.000 So let's pull this up.

00:34:52.000 Let's pull.

00:34:53.000 So the numbers we're looking at here, I'm just showing you guys this because I totally agree with what Tyler said.

00:34:58.000 We would need to see extreme turnout.

00:35:01.000 And if you look at this tweet, what it's showing you is the different turnout when you compare to 2021 in each of these counties.

00:35:09.000 Now, listen, all these counties are not strongholds for left or right, but I'm just saying if Jack's going to win, he's going to need to see extreme improvement over the 2021 turnout.

00:35:20.000 The more people showing up on election day, it's obviously going to help him overall.

00:35:25.000 And so you're seeing in some of these counties, and it's some of these, you know, you're talking at 2 o'clock or 4 o'clock, some 6 o'clock, but they're overperforming 2021.

00:35:34.000 And, you know, you look at Ocean County, which is the strongest county for Republicans in New Jersey.

00:35:40.000 It's at 104%.

00:35:42.000 I'm not saying by any means that that means he's going to win, but we would have to see counties like that skyrocket as we get to 8 o'clock here when it comes to total votes by comparison to 2021.

00:35:55.000 Yeah, Ocean County.

00:35:55.000 But I thought this tweet was a really good breakdown.

00:35:57.000 Cliff, talk about how important Ocean County is for Republicans.

00:36:00.000 Yeah, Ocean County, I believe in 2016, of all the counties in America, it received the second most raw votes for Donald Trump.

00:36:09.000 Okay, this is a Republican stronghold.

00:36:12.000 It is absolutely one where we have to run up the score.

00:36:15.000 I mean, if we increase the turnout in Ocean County by 10 to 12 percentage points, you're talking about massive gains throughout the state and a state where Jack J. Rowley only lost by 84,000 votes four years ago.

00:36:28.000 So Ocean County is one to absolutely keep your eye on.

00:36:31.000 There are tons of Republicans there.

00:36:32.000 We put two of our Airbnbs in Ocean County just because it was that important and there were that many Republicans to target.

00:36:40.000 Was it 84,000?

00:36:42.000 Was that all in 2021?

00:36:44.000 Oh, I thought it was over 100.

00:36:46.000 And so, and by the way, Ocean County is where that's where Cliff and Scott and then Tyler, you set up the very first turning point action Super Chase event was right there at Toms River, Toms River, New Jersey, which is Ocean County.

00:37:00.000 And then that's right next door to Lakewood, New Jersey, which is that spot where we just saw these incredible numbers.

00:37:07.000 The Orthodox Jewish community has come out in droves and we had lines upon lines around the block on that Sunday.

00:37:15.000 Also, six flags, great adventures down there.

00:37:17.000 Yeah, six flags where it's known to everybody.

00:37:19.000 I spent many chasing girls. 0.53

00:37:24.000 We got $5 from AJ Quick, 88.

00:37:26.000 Angelo's Pizzeria best cheesecake sandwiches, South Philly Bay.

00:37:31.000 You might order some cheese steaks.

00:37:33.000 I feel distrustful of someone saying a pizzeria has the best cheese steaks.

00:37:37.000 I mean, I haven't been there.

00:37:38.000 No, no, no.

00:37:40.000 You can have great cheese steaks.

00:37:41.000 Very good.

00:37:42.000 It seems off.

00:37:43.000 I'm not going to order cheese steaks.

00:37:44.000 It'd be like saying a cheesesteak place had made the best pizzas in there.

00:37:47.000 That's just the name of the joint.

00:37:49.000 There are lots of really good, even around Temple, we would have great pizzerias that had really good cheese.

00:37:55.000 NALA 76 just says all cheese is good.

00:37:58.000 No, I totally disagree with that.

00:38:00.000 That's totally incorrect.

00:38:02.000 All cheese is good.

00:38:02.000 What would be the weirdest cheese you could put on a cheese steak?

00:38:04.000 What if someone made like a Munster? 0.91

00:38:08.000 Yeah.

00:38:10.000 Gorgonzola cheese steak.

00:38:11.000 Oh, gosh.

00:38:12.000 No, that's just one of those really heavy Italian cheeses.

00:38:16.000 Yeah, no, that just sounds terrible.

00:38:17.000 That sounds like Limburger, you know, or like Swiss.

00:38:20.000 Like imagine, or like, like, or no, we've got like a Brie, like putting like a Brief.

00:38:25.000 It's crazy.

00:38:26.000 It's completely insane.

00:38:28.000 That's disgusting.

00:38:28.000 It'd be a lot of fun.

00:38:29.000 I want to finish doing a quick rundown of just the races that we are looking at here because, so we mentioned Philly.

00:38:35.000 We mentioned, or yeah, we've mentioned the Virginia stuff.

00:38:40.000 Virginia's going to be a lot of fun. 1.00

00:38:40.000 Well, we mentioned Virginia AG. 1.00

00:38:42.000 We're going to be getting results in the others here first.

00:38:43.000 I'll be frank.

00:38:44.000 It would be a colossal upset if Winsome Sears is able to beat Abigail Spanberger for governor. 1.00

00:38:51.000 Just the way it is.

00:38:52.000 We'll be looking, I think, to keep that close mostly.

00:38:55.000 If we win, this is an amazing night.

00:38:58.000 We're just celebrating all night.

00:38:59.000 I'll be in as good a mood as I was last year, but it's going to be very tough.

00:39:04.000 New Jersey governor, we're moderate.

00:39:07.000 We're hopeful on that one.

00:39:08.000 I think.

00:39:09.000 Jack, what would you put the odds on that one?

00:39:10.000 Maybe on the other hand.

00:39:11.000 I'm holding out hope.

00:39:12.000 I'm holding out hope.

00:39:13.000 It looks like we got our first drop.

00:39:17.000 We got our first Virginia Attorney General data drop.

00:39:20.000 This is the very first votes.

00:39:21.000 8,700 votes.

00:39:24.000 It's Jones winning over the incumbent.

00:39:30.000 What county is it from?

00:39:31.000 That's what's going to matter.

00:39:32.000 I'll pull it up here.

00:39:33.000 It's from Bland County.

00:39:35.000 Is this Richard County?

00:39:35.000 Grayson County, and then from Buckingham County.

00:39:40.000 It looks like it's a great place.

00:39:41.000 Oh, and Lynchburg.

00:39:43.000 Yep.

00:39:44.000 Lynchburg is a.

00:39:45.000 Lynchburg, though, is where Liberty University is.

00:39:48.000 And this looks like to be a dem heavy drop.

00:39:50.000 72% for Jay Jones.

00:39:53.000 That's not going to hold.

00:39:54.000 Lynchburg is a Republican stronghold.

00:39:57.000 Okay.

00:39:58.000 So that's not going to hold.

00:39:59.000 But right now, he's up by 22 points over Jason Miaris.

00:40:03.000 The modeling, I'm texting with Rich right now.

00:40:05.000 The modeling is right now.

00:40:11.000 It's not great for Miaris.

00:40:13.000 It's got a 57 chance to win, right?

00:40:15.000 But it's so early that the model is going to be grossly inaccurate at this point.

00:40:21.000 But, oh, we're getting some more from Virginia Attorney General.

00:40:26.000 Less than 1% votes.

00:40:27.000 Yeah, this is like nothing burger results.

00:40:30.000 So one thing that I would like to say to kind of just contextualize the night, one of the big asks that we're going to have, and of course, everyone is saying, like, well, is this, you know, is this an election referendum on Donald Trump?

00:40:42.000 And, you know, obviously those are a lot of questions that were asked in all of the exit polls.

00:40:47.000 But it's also a test for, and Tyler, you and I were talking about this yesterday in Human Events.

00:40:51.000 It's going to be a test for the Republican Party going in the midterms to say, okay, what do we need to do to get those low-prop voters out with Donald Trump not being on the ballot?

00:41:04.000 So when Donald Trump is not on the ballot himself, what needs to take place?

00:41:08.000 What works, what doesn't work, in terms of strategy for getting out those low-prop voters, which were the special sauce to winning on the margins in seven out of seven of the swing states last time.

00:41:20.000 And so, Tyler, I think, you know, we're going to have a lot of lessons out of tonight, no matter what happens in terms of this, because look, obviously we're competing in areas that we haven't competed before ever, like New Jersey.

00:41:33.000 This is a blue state map that we're on.

00:41:35.000 We're not supposed to be competing there.

00:41:37.000 The Democrats, Barack Obama, don't want us competing there.

00:41:40.000 That's why they had to bring him in in the first place because this was competitive.

00:41:44.000 But at the same time, when you look at those demographic trends the way they're going, that's why we've been able to say, all right, let's play in these areas, came in to an extent, and then figure out what works in Jersey and what doesn't, especially though, writ large without Donald Trump being on the ballot himself.

00:42:02.000 Hey, we've got two more.

00:42:04.000 We've got JD Kohey says, God bless Charlie Kirk.

00:42:09.000 God bless Charlie Kirk.

00:42:10.000 Amen.

00:42:11.000 I agree.

00:42:11.000 And also, we have Nala76 says, you may not have Mr. Hero, but they have great cheese steaks as well.

00:42:20.000 We're getting a lot of cheese steak right now.

00:42:21.000 Hey, just to put this out into the ether real quick here, I know it's still super early here, but with the votes that have been counted from the ballots that have been cast, it looks like Jones is trailing behind Spamberger about three points.

00:42:40.000 So it's a good first sign.

00:42:41.000 Jones trailing.

00:42:43.000 Oh, yeah.

00:42:43.000 So the overall gap about three points.

00:42:45.000 Yeah.

00:42:45.000 I mean, it's a delta between the two.

00:42:48.000 Yeah, yeah.

00:42:48.000 It's updating, and so it's going to, but there's been a, at times, a significant gap.

00:42:55.000 I think you're going to want a bigger gap than that because I think it just updated.

00:42:59.000 There's no gap anymore.

00:43:00.000 But that's, you know.

00:43:01.000 Well, what's the total vote count?

00:43:02.000 Can we see that?

00:43:03.000 Yeah.

00:43:04.000 Well, look, it's still less than 1%.

00:43:06.000 Also, Tyler, you never told us you were cheese.

00:43:08.000 It's 27,000 to 18,000 for Spamberger.

00:43:12.000 And then we right now are Jones is up 24,000 to 16,000.

00:43:20.000 Interesting.

00:43:20.000 Tyler, you never told us your cheese, by the way.

00:43:22.000 I'm a provolone guy.

00:43:23.000 Nice.

00:43:24.000 I like a fresh cut steak and prevalent.

00:43:25.000 I love provolin.

00:43:26.000 Yeah.

00:43:26.000 I love providing.

00:43:27.000 That's my guy, too.

00:43:28.000 And what kind of bun do you like?

00:43:29.000 Do you like a clean bun or do you like a bun that's been like marinated?

00:43:33.000 No, I like something that's just like soaked a little bit.

00:43:37.000 Yeah, see, that's what I like.

00:43:38.000 Tanya, when she goes, she likes a clean bun.

00:43:40.000 She wants like a fresh piece of bread. 0.96

00:43:42.000 I like really rare steak.

00:43:44.000 Like I like a fresh cut, so it's like juicy.

00:43:49.000 So you're telling me that there's a place here in Phoenix that can do real cheesecakes?

00:43:52.000 I don't think it's going to be the same.

00:43:53.000 All right, we'll see.

00:43:55.000 They have forefathers.

00:43:56.000 So really interesting.

00:43:58.000 Sorry to actually go back to the election content here, but throw up image 217.

00:44:04.000 This is a Virginia exit poll.

00:44:06.000 Now, Rich has given us some indications on the exit poll how much to trust him.

00:44:12.000 But this is an interesting data point, right?

00:44:14.000 So with independence in Virginia, exit poll.

00:44:17.000 We got Spamberger is a plus 15, which is wild.

00:44:22.000 But look at this.

00:44:23.000 Miaris is at plus three over Jay Jones with independence, with independence.

00:44:28.000 So like in a state where you have a registration advantage that's pretty striking for the Democrat Party, to have the AG have a noticeable exit polling advantage, whether that's enough to make up the difference or not, we will see, but at least that is holding, that is holding.

00:44:49.000 By the way, here's another one, if we can get this up in time.

00:44:53.000 This is an exit poll from CNN.

00:44:56.000 Women prefer Jones over Miaris, 55 to 43, according to the exit poll. 0.96

00:45:03.000 Men prefer Miaris over Jones, 58 to 40.

00:45:07.000 So again, this is for the AG race in Virginia.

00:45:11.000 So there's a 15-point gap.

00:45:13.000 Yeah.

00:45:13.000 Gender gap in that race.

00:45:14.000 That's pretty high, even for America.

00:45:17.000 That is striking, though.

00:45:18.000 So Jones comes out, fetishizes the murder of his political opponents and his children, and it's women that don't seem to care.

00:45:27.000 Yeah, but again, I mean, all right.

00:45:30.000 Well, Blake, should we talk about how that translates itself into the abortion vote?

00:45:36.000 I mean, are there any abortion votes today?

00:45:38.000 No, I'm just saying, in terms of the Attorney General and in terms of coming out and saying you're pro-abortion versus pro-life, which we know Mayaris is, then perhaps saying what I'm trying to get at is perhaps saying what Jay Jones said is already in line with a lot of what, as we know, single Democrat women already believe.

00:46:01.000 They're pro-abortion. 0.73

00:46:02.000 So perhaps some of those comments weren't necessarily so far out of line with that statement.

00:46:07.000 We got our first YouTube comment from Manuel Reda, who says, Corleones in Phoenix is good cheese steak.

00:46:13.000 I don't know where we're ordering out here.

00:46:15.000 Yeah, Corleone is what they say.

00:46:16.000 Just so you guys are aware, there are some people that are already trying to call the race, the gubernatorial election in Virginia for Democrat Abigail Spanberger.

00:46:27.000 Well, that was pretty likely win.

00:46:31.000 Finding out.

00:46:32.000 It's a little early.

00:46:33.000 Yeah, just to do a quick, because we've tried to do it a few times.

00:46:35.000 I just want to do a quick roundup of other races we're watching because it is not just Virginia and New Jersey.

00:46:41.000 We, of course, are watching the New York City mayor's race.

00:46:44.000 Also, there's a funny ballot measure.

00:46:45.000 Ballot measure six in New York would switch their local elections to presidential election years.

00:46:51.000 I oppose that on the pure principle that we need content as political watchers, and it's good to have some elections that are in off years.

00:47:00.000 We don't want just another boring election that's part of the presidential election.

00:47:04.000 So many in one night.

00:47:05.000 Space it out.

00:47:06.000 Space it out.

00:47:07.000 We need content.

00:47:08.000 We're also watching California.

00:47:09.000 There's only one statewide measure, Prop 50.

00:47:12.000 It's to adopt basically re-legalize gerrymandering so they can make a Democrat gerrymander to counter some Republican efforts we've had in Texas and Ohio and so on.

00:47:21.000 That seems likely to pass, but not heavily polled.

00:47:24.000 It's unsure.

00:47:26.000 Right here in Arizona, we're watching the Mesa recall of what's her name, Spillsbury.

00:47:32.000 We're watching that.

00:47:34.000 So out in Arizona, we have a couple of different things going on.

00:47:38.000 We have a tax proposition that's going to be Super Snooze Fest, but that's in Maricopa County.

00:47:43.000 But the big one is that we were, the grassroots had recalled, has sent to recall the co-chair for Republicans for Kamala.

00:47:52.000 So she's a fake Republican at you know, masquerading. 0.98

00:47:56.000 Recalls are really tough.

00:47:58.000 So this is this is the same conversation that we're having across the board here.

00:48:02.000 An expectation to recall someone is really, really hard.

00:48:05.000 And part of the reason for that is because the Democrats join with the usually the establishment or uniparty type Republicans, try to hold people in office, da, da, da, while outsiders have to come in and win.

00:48:18.000 That election that is being forced in Arizona is a is a huge deal because it forced the Democrats on their heels to have to spend really hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of effort and resources to try to retain a you know again quote-unquote Republican for Kamala that they were trying to use this last election and the election before in 2020 to try to confuse the public.

00:48:42.000 So the conservatives did the right thing, put her on the recall ballot, and she might lose.

00:48:48.000 And if she loses, that will be a huge, huge upset for the Democrats because they'll have lost embarrassingly a person that was they were propping up to try to confuse voters.

00:48:58.000 The by the way, and I'm just going to say it.

00:48:59.000 So this, you know, Andrew, you mentioned about how there's been some projections in Virginia.

00:49:04.000 It's Decision Desk.

00:49:05.000 So Decision Desk has come out, and we've always gone with Decision Desk on the pod here that Decision Desk has projected Abigail Spanberger to win the Virginia gubernatorial election.

00:49:18.000 And so, of course, we're going to be tracking this throughout the night, but we're putting it out.

00:49:21.000 Decision Desk does have it, and we've always gone with error calls in the past.

00:49:26.000 Yep.

00:49:28.000 This is Lane Schoenberger, Chief Investment Officer and Founding Partner of YReFi.

00:49:33.000 It has been an honor and a privilege to partner with Turning Point and for Charlie to endorse us.

00:49:38.000 His endorsement means the world to us, and we look forward to continuing our partnership with Turning Point for years to come.

00:49:44.000 Now, here Charlie, in his own words, tell you about YReFi.

00:49:48.000 I'm going to tell you guys about whyrefi.com.

00:49:50.000 That is why R-E-F-Y.com. 0.99

00:49:52.000 WhyReFi is incredible.

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00:49:56.000 WhyReFi is refinancing distress or defaulted private student loans?

00:50:01.000 You can finally take control of your student loan situation with a plan that works for your monthly budget.

00:50:05.000 Go to whyrefi.com.

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00:50:08.000 Do you have a co-borrower?

00:50:09.000 WhyReFi can get them released from the loan?

00:50:11.000 You can skip a payment up to 12 times without penalty.

00:50:14.000 It may not be available in all 50 states.

00:50:16.000 Go to whyrefi.com.

00:50:18.000 That is why FY.com.

00:50:20.000 Let's face it, if you have distress or defaulted student loans, it can be overwhelming.

00:50:24.000 Because of private student loan debt, so many people feel stuck.

00:50:27.000 Go to whyrefi.com.

00:50:29.000 That is yrefy.com.

00:50:32.000 Private student loan debt relief, yrefi.com.

00:50:37.000 Meg wrote us in.

00:50:38.000 She says, Hi, fellas.

00:50:39.000 Charlie loved this night so much.

00:50:40.000 And I always watched election coverage with you, and that won't change.

00:50:43.000 Thank you, Meg.

00:50:44.000 Gotta say, I have tears streaming down my face seeing his empty chair.

00:50:48.000 But can y'all address what is going on right now in PA and Bucks County?

00:50:51.000 Thanks for the info.

00:50:52.000 Love you guys.

00:50:53.000 So I sent this over to Cliff.

00:50:55.000 So there is.

00:50:56.000 Chester County was well, Chester County.

00:50:58.000 I'm going to address that.

00:50:58.000 But Bucks County.

00:51:00.000 So I started searching around Bucks County, and all I can tell is that there's like some weird UFO, people are saying over Bucks County.

00:51:11.000 What?

00:51:11.000 Throw up 219.

00:51:12.000 Yeah, I don't think it's, but this is all I could find.

00:51:15.000 So there's some sort of image.

00:51:17.000 It might be like a Tesla launch or like a SpaceX launch, rather.

00:51:21.000 I have no idea what that is.

00:51:22.000 People are reporting for Bucks County, if that's what you're asking about, Meg.

00:51:25.000 But if not, if you're asking about what's going on in Chester County, perhaps Cliff could chime in here, but basically third-party voters were left off the poll books.

00:51:35.000 And so now voters in Chester County, throw up image 218, have until 10 p.m. to vote in Chester County.

00:51:45.000 Am I getting my facts right?

00:51:46.000 That's right.

00:51:46.000 They've expended.

00:51:47.000 So Scott Proster was key on this one, by the way, not only in raising awareness about it, but also going down to fighting it in person.

00:51:56.000 And so they did get, look, huge issues.

00:52:00.000 Independent voters were not included in the poll books today.

00:52:02.000 That's bizarre.

00:52:03.000 Which is completely insane.

00:52:04.000 Josh Shapiro is Pennsylvania, by the way, folks.

00:52:06.000 Josh Shapiro is Pennsylvania, an entire county.

00:52:09.000 Chester County, this is one of the collar counties of Philadelphia.

00:52:11.000 This is one of the Philadelphia exurbs.

00:52:14.000 This is where Westchester is.

00:52:15.000 Westchester University is there.

00:52:18.000 Just an absolute enormous county.

00:52:20.000 A ton of Republicans, by the way, and as well as conservative-leaning, conservative-leaning independents.

00:52:26.000 Didn't flip in 2024 the way Bucks County did, but it was one of the ones that was a target to flip.

00:52:31.000 And yeah, the idea that they were not able to have independent voters, there was even questions, by the way.

00:52:37.000 And not only that, so typically, by the way, what would happen is if your name is not in the poll book, then you would go and cast what's called a provisional ballot.

00:52:44.000 And then, of course, they promptly ran out of provisional ballots, and they were telling people that they had to be turned away.

00:52:50.000 Obviously, that's completely illegal.

00:52:52.000 Court made the right call here.

00:52:54.000 Wonder what happened with Josh Shapiro's governance of the elections in Pennsylvania to allow one of the most populous counties of Pennsylvania to not have their elections done correctly.

00:53:05.000 Strange.

00:53:06.000 Real quick update here.

00:53:08.000 So hold on really quick.

00:53:10.000 Just really quick.

00:53:11.000 Jason Miaris is now up over Jay Jones.

00:53:15.000 And this is again the Virginia Attorney General race.

00:53:18.000 He's up by about 3,000 votes or let's see here, almost two points.

00:53:26.000 Meanwhile, if you go over, this will give us a pretty early indication of the delta between the AG race and the governor's race.

00:53:33.000 And right now, at the same time, Abigail Spanberger is running up by about six points.

00:53:38.000 So there's almost an eight-point delta currently as it drops between Jason Miaris and Winsom Sears.

00:53:45.000 So that's an interesting.

00:53:48.000 That's bad news for Jay Jones.

00:53:51.000 That's bad news, but I mean, a lot of people were saying that we needed to say Jason Miaris run a delta of 10 over Winsom in order to pull this off.

00:54:01.000 So this is still going to come down.

00:54:03.000 I think this is still going to come down to the wire.

00:54:06.000 But that is what we're looking at right now.

00:54:08.000 It's about a 2.2 delta, 2.2% advantage, Jason Miaris over Jay Jones right now, whereas Abigail Spanberger is, let's see here. 1.00

00:54:21.000 Yeah, it's a little less than six.

00:54:23.000 So now it's shrunk.

00:54:24.000 It's about a seven-point delta.

00:54:27.000 But that's, listen, if he can, if he, the higher, the closer to 10 points that that can get to, the better chance that Jason Miaris is going to have a chance to pull this off the way that the evening's going.

00:54:38.000 Yeah, I mean, like always, we're going to be sitting here waiting for the gigantic Fairfax County nuclear bomb to go off.

00:54:43.000 Let's bring Cliff back in.

00:54:45.000 Cliff, you were about to say something.

00:54:47.000 Yeah, listen.

00:54:48.000 I mean, this Chester County thing, it's not just about the retention races.

00:54:51.000 It's not just about the Superior and Commonwealth court races.

00:54:55.000 But we have thousands of school board races and local judge of elections and precinct level races.

00:55:02.000 I mean, these races that are local are going to dictate who oversees the elections for 2026 through 2029.

00:55:08.000 So the fact that 75,000 of these people were kept off the voting rolls in a time when everyone is already just raising their red flags about a lot of the voter integrity and the processes, it's just too big of a mistake to make.

00:55:21.000 So I give tons of credit to Scott Pressler for applying the pressure.

00:55:25.000 And as you guys said, two extra hours in Chester County.

00:55:29.000 If anybody knows anyone there that's with us, America First, make sure they get out and vote, not just for the big races, but for all the local ones as well.

00:55:38.000 A few messages here.

00:55:39.000 We've got Jude says, I love you guys.

00:55:41.000 I just started a chapter.

00:55:42.000 Thank you, Jude.

00:55:44.000 And we also have PJ.

00:55:45.000 He says, offers some good perspective.

00:55:47.000 If a Republican wins tonight in Virginia or New Jersey, it's a catastrophic sign for Democrats.

00:55:53.000 But if Republicans can keep it close, it's still a perfectly good sign for 2026.

00:55:58.000 Rest in peace, Charlie.

00:56:00.000 Yeah.

00:56:01.000 Hey, Tyler, just since we've got more time in Chester County, by the way, Meg confirmed that that's what she was asking about Chester County, not Bucks.

00:56:09.000 So we got to the main point that she had.

00:56:12.000 Tyler, Turning Point Action App.

00:56:14.000 How do people use that?

00:56:15.000 Now they've got a two-hour window extra for Chester.

00:56:18.000 Can they just zoom in on Chester County and start making calls of low props?

00:56:21.000 Yeah, we're getting up.

00:56:23.000 I think the team's working to try to focus in on Chester County right now.

00:56:27.000 But we may not have it up in time here.

00:56:31.000 All right.

00:56:31.000 Well, keep us posted.

00:56:32.000 We'll check in.

00:56:33.000 We got two hours.

00:56:35.000 Just in general, though, getting on the application is easy.

00:56:38.000 You should do it.

00:56:39.000 If you didn't have the chance to do it this election cycle, please help us in the future.

00:56:44.000 You download the TP Action application and you can go in and you can rock and roll real easily on there.

00:56:52.000 Tap the top left-hand corner, the arrows, log in, and then you have the option to knock doors, make phone calls, send text messages, even write postcards of your own.

00:57:03.000 It just gives you, it feeds you who to write the postcards to all throughout.

00:57:07.000 So that's really, really impactful.

00:57:10.000 A ballot measure, I didn't realize we have today until looking at the list here of all the states.

00:57:15.000 Maine has a ballot measure to require voter ID and to curtail absentee voting, and the polls indicate it's a dead heat.

00:57:24.000 So someone actually polled that question.

00:57:27.000 And so we're hopeful on that one.

00:57:29.000 It would be good to, you know, we say vote early if you can.

00:57:33.000 Vote absentee if that's the only way you can do it.

00:57:35.000 But we do prefer the ideal of people voting on election day, not having 8 million different ways to do it.

00:57:42.000 If you had the opportunity to write the law and you could federalize elections, not that that's the way the Constitution works, but like how should the perfect ideal voting protocol be?

00:57:55.000 I think the ideal form of voting is you have to register in advance.

00:58:01.000 We have a log of all of who our citizens are.

00:58:04.000 And there's a cutoff date.

00:58:04.000 And there's a cutoff date for you to register.

00:58:07.000 And then you go in on election day.

00:58:10.000 In person.

00:58:11.000 In person.

00:58:12.000 And you cast a ballot.

00:58:13.000 It's a paper ballot.

00:58:14.000 After presenting, it's a paper ballot.

00:58:16.000 You present your voter ID to cast your ballot.

00:58:19.000 Now, voter ID.

00:58:20.000 This is a question I actually have.

00:58:21.000 Do you prefer that it is a driver's license or do you prefer that it's an actual specific ID that is a voter voting ID?

00:58:29.000 Well, it should be an ID that you have to actually demonstrate your citizenship to get, which is something we have greatly diluted in this nation.

00:58:39.000 You know, we go, there's kind of a problem we had where we had, I think, a window to get good ID laws in place and like a good citizenship stuff.

00:58:47.000 And we were kind of going through one of the conservative movements like big frenzies against any form of like government database of things.

00:58:55.000 And so we don't, for example, we don't have an actual federal database of who's a citizen.

00:59:00.000 And that's a huge problem.

00:59:01.000 And on top of that.

00:59:02.000 And on top of that, you had also Interest from a big chamber of commerce to you know actually be on the side for sure for sure but it's not even just changing it's sort of like we also had this with the uh with the census where they got very paranoid about the census and that was happening at a time where we could have made the census better yeah but the chamber guys wanted the illegals in the country well they definitely do but they still do they still are they always 0.54

00:59:32.000 always quite about all right race called another one lieutenant governor's race in virginia for democrat gazala hash me i think uh went to school with a gazala hash me just kidding um all right so what there's a lot of dodgers there's just a lot of oh a lot of a lot of new names yeah but so miares and jones that is a dead heat right now jones is slightly ahead but it's 11 reporting uh we're now getting some votes from

01:00:02.000 a big one is we got almost all the votes from loudon it looks like 75 in from loudon and that's good to have almost all in because that is a big blue county at this point we are still waiting zero percent on the fairfax county nuke that is probably going to come in last so we're going to want to have built up some kind of lead that's going to be very ugly yeah and so we're going to want leads from you know rural virginia shenandoah virginia we're going to need that to offset what is going to be coming from fairfax county but

01:00:31.000 this could be the race that we're watching throughout the night along with us waiting for new york mayor minneapolis mayor prop 50 is going to be very late tonight keep in mind too guys i mean obviously governor is a big deal not having the governorship and it in a state's a big deal but an attorney general can really hold the state in check so nothing makes the democrats more miserable than when you have a conservative attorney general basically thwarting the agenda of a legislature

01:01:01.000 especially when you have

01:01:03.000 you know a situation where the legislature is held by the democrats plus the governorship and that's what you're looking at in virginia is a bad situation where you're going from a very conservative governor to a not so conservative governor like like break neck breaking speed so keeping jason in is going to be a huge deal to really cause them a lot of heartburn and and they're really freaked out by that because of the the uh how close

01:01:33.000 to dc it is i mean virginia is the place that they the democrats run all of their junk through when they control it as a as a total blue state and it's really really been terrible for them to have republicans running the state for the last couple years here so uh our last four years so that's a that's a big that's a big deal that has to be uh has to be looked at is that jason you we really got to be pulling for we're going to keep a close eye on this um and

01:02:02.000 it looks like a big a big uh dump just actually just came in i'm i'm looking to by the way go go look at the the governor's race so just because we're talking about the way uh virginia voters are which model which is is coming true is look at the modeling and you can actually see the republican john reed who I don't think anyone's talked about at all, is actually, and just what I'm checking, it looks like he's starting to outperform Sears in his voting.

01:02:31.000 Some of the numbers I'm looking at, he's two points above Winsom Sears, who, by the way, had, I mean, she had every endorsement.

01:02:38.000 She had tons of ads.

01:02:39.000 She had tons of money.

01:02:41.000 And now you've got the Republican John Reed, who was her LG candidate, is actually outperforming her.

01:02:46.000 Yeah, that was a little bit expected in all the polling because not as much money was spent.

01:02:53.000 So that is kind of the consensus was that he would fall somewhere between Miares and Winsome Sears.

01:03:03.000 So you're seeing that ticket splitting all across the top of the ticket in Virginia.

01:03:07.000 It's really interesting.

01:03:08.000 It's very interesting.

01:03:09.000 It's kind of mind-boggling how the mind works.

01:03:12.000 Some of it, to give some explanation, is that the ballot chasing on the left, so ballot harvesting, ballot chasing, depending upon the state.

01:03:20.000 Is it bullet voting?

01:03:22.000 So what they do is they only go out and chase what they need to.

01:03:27.000 So again, a lot of the people that they're knocking on doors are saying, don't worry about the rest of the ticket.

01:03:31.000 Just vote for governor. 0.90

01:03:33.000 And this, by the way, you know, again, by the way, Andrew, one of those terms that I don't know if we can use anymore, but that actually is referred to as bullet voting because you're only filling in one.

01:03:33.000 Right.

01:03:46.000 So we have a few that 32% votes are in in Fairfax.

01:03:51.000 Obviously, Fairfax has begun dropping.

01:03:53.000 And it's super in Jay Jones' favor.

01:03:55.000 So now Jay Jones has taken about an eight-point lead over an eight-point lead, 17% of the voting.

01:04:05.000 A lot of red counties.

01:04:06.000 And just to be fully honest about things, the big blue bomb.

01:04:06.000 Yeah, no.

01:04:11.000 Now, what we are looking at right now, it's going to be very close, it looks like.

01:04:15.000 But I will say going into election night, the betting markets, we shouldn't forget about those.

01:04:20.000 Betting markets had that as about a 50-50 thing.

01:04:23.000 They now have Jones as about a two-thirds favorite to win.

01:04:28.000 So that would be extremely unfortunate for what has happened.

01:04:32.000 But we do have Jones pulling ahead in the betting markets, but not a runaway.

01:04:37.000 There are still results to come in that we are waiting to see.

01:04:41.000 Cliff, you try to hop in there.

01:04:42.000 Yeah, let's just think about how insane this is.

01:04:45.000 You have a guy, Jay Jones.

01:04:46.000 I mean, we all live and breathe this, so we've seen it a million times.

01:04:49.000 But the fact that somebody will be the top cop in the state or the Commonwealth of Virginia who said that he fantasized about killing his political opponent and their kids, let's not discount how insane that is and the time period that we're in.

01:05:06.000 I mean, that to me is just, it's insanity.

01:05:09.000 And I just think we need to continuously talk about this, and we can't just kind of, you know, bury this thing and move on.

01:05:14.000 It's like, this guy's a vile human being.

01:05:16.000 I don't know anybody.

01:05:17.000 I mean, maybe some random kid from high school that went crazy that would send text messages like this.

01:05:23.000 This is absurd.

01:05:24.000 And I just think we should continuously call this guy out.

01:05:26.000 He is going to be the top cop if he wins this race.

01:05:30.000 I'm going to try to avoid if Virginia liked the plague. 0.93

01:05:32.000 Heather, our top activist in Turning Point Action in New Jersey, wants to remind everyone that polls are remaining open until 8 p.m.

01:05:40.000 8 p.m. in 21 minutes.

01:05:42.000 So New Jersey, we're open till 8 p.m.

01:05:44.000 So if you're in line, stay in line.

01:05:45.000 If you have a friend and you're close by, take him.

01:05:49.000 If you have a family member, take him down to the polling place.

01:05:52.000 It's open until 8.

01:05:53.000 Mobilize the Jersey Grandmas. 0.99

01:05:55.000 Check your Jersey grandma. 1.00

01:05:57.000 Has she voted yet?

01:05:58.000 Make sure she needs to get out there. 1.00

01:06:00.000 If she needs a ride, go give her a ride. 0.98

01:06:02.000 8 p.m.

01:06:03.000 8 p.m.

01:06:04.000 And once you're in line, you stay in line.

01:06:06.000 Blake, we had some breaking news, I believe, about the New Jersey lines from earlier tonight, that what happens to you if you stay, if you actually leave the line.

01:06:18.000 And I had this from Data Republican, trusted source, who said that if you leave the line in New Jersey, that Chris Christie will come and eat you.

01:06:29.000 He will eat you.

01:06:30.000 Or sit on you.

01:06:31.000 Or perhaps sit on you like he sat on that bridge and broke it.

01:06:33.000 By the way.

01:06:34.000 Jude donated $2 and asked, how can I get people fired up to talk at my chapter?

01:06:39.000 Well, for starters, you could talk.

01:06:40.000 Yeah, Democrats just are possibly going to elect an AG in Virginia who fantasizes about killing your kids, a top law enforcement officer.

01:06:50.000 Can we just maybe have that as a permanent sign that you could put on your window or in your lawn that just says the Democrats' top law enforcement officer wants to kill my kids?

01:07:01.000 How many people have voted for Jay Jones that we know as of right now?

01:07:04.000 Let's check the exact total number of votes right now.

01:07:06.000 It's 367,066.

01:07:09.000 So 367,000 people in Virginia have voted for someone who said what?

01:07:13.000 He says he, you know, I think two bullets in each of that one Republican's kids because having your kids die is the only way you change your mind.

01:07:22.000 Right.

01:07:22.000 So remember, when all the people told you it's both sides and we have to unite and we have to call it out on every angle, over 300,000 people just voted for a guy who believes that.

01:07:37.000 And by the way, he didn't just say it.

01:07:38.000 He called somebody up and was harassing her over this.

01:07:42.000 And then hundreds of thousands of Democrats went and voted for him.

01:07:45.000 No, and by the way, the person that he was texting with said, this makes me uncomfortable.

01:07:50.000 He doubles the woman. 0.98

01:07:51.000 Yeah, then he called them to double down and emphasize, no, he was dead serious and she was being a wuss by not embracing the, you have to kill your opponent's kids. 0.95

01:08:03.000 Yeah.

01:08:04.000 No, so by the way, so I'm I'm told that Rich Barris, the people's pundit, Big Dana Poll, is ready to join us now.

01:08:11.000 Blake, or sorry, Rich, you and I were texting about this clip.

01:08:16.000 It's a famous clip from Bob Beckle.

01:08:19.000 And I found it, man.

01:08:21.000 I found it.

01:08:21.000 So this is what, like 2010, maybe?

01:08:25.000 14.

01:08:25.000 It's the 2014 election with Ed Gillespie and Mark Warner.

01:08:29.000 It was a sleeper race.

01:08:31.000 Yeah, so all of a sudden, it's hilarious.

01:08:33.000 So these guys are like, it's one of those instances where they're on TV too long, Rich, and like Bob forgets that there's a camera on.

01:08:39.000 And Bob used to be a political operative in Northern Virginia.

01:08:42.000 And he talks about the fact for Democrats.

01:08:45.000 And he talks about the fact, oh, yeah, we used to hold back votes all the time in Northern Virginia.

01:08:49.000 And it's like this little slip of the tongue where he like, you know, it's like a magician on stage telling everybody how he does his tricks.

01:08:56.000 You're not supposed to do this.

01:08:58.000 And it's this classic clip.

01:09:00.000 So I got to get you to react to it.

01:09:02.000 And then we can kind of zero in on Virginia.

01:09:05.000 You say there's some good news for Miaris here.

01:09:08.000 There is some decent news.

01:09:09.000 I mean, it's going to be very close, but I'll let you, you know.

01:09:11.000 Yeah, let's play 224.

01:09:14.000 I want you to react to it.

01:09:15.000 224.

01:09:16.000 This race is going to come down with all due respect to my dear colleague on the five.

01:09:21.000 I just do not believe Gless was going to hang on and win in Virginia.

01:09:23.000 Fairfax County still got 40% of the vote out.

01:09:25.000 And I used to work that county and we always held back votes.

01:09:29.000 And it'll come in.

01:09:31.000 Actually, well, it was pretty easy to do.

01:09:35.000 You were the guy with the boxes about this may welcome down.

01:09:38.000 Believe it or not, this may welcome down to Kansas, this whole thing.

01:09:42.000 Wow.

01:09:42.000 Drama.

01:09:44.000 All right.

01:09:44.000 So, Rich, unpack that clip for us.

01:09:47.000 So, Bob Beckle, you know, God bless his soul.

01:09:52.000 I was actually told by people who worked at Fox, he had been dealing with and struggling with, as millions of Americans in this country have during this modern era, you know, of like, you know, a painkiller addiction, apparently.

01:10:04.000 And he said that being tired.

01:10:07.000 And there's just a point in politics where they thought that's what loosened his tongue.

01:10:11.000 But there was just a point in politics where some of these guys, especially these old school Democrats, just get older and start telling the truth.

01:10:17.000 I mean, you see James Carville do it.

01:10:19.000 Bill Clinton does it.

01:10:20.000 I mean, this happens.

01:10:21.000 And the idea, like, we have to listen to the Nate Cohens of the world and everybody else on mainstream media pretend that this doesn't happen is ridiculous.

01:10:30.000 I remember Jerry Nadler talking about this years ago when he thought that he was the one who suffered from, you know, as a result of it.

01:10:37.000 And now all of a sudden, we're supposed to pretend it doesn't happen.

01:10:40.000 It does.

01:10:41.000 They have guys like me sitting around going, how many more ballots do we need?

01:10:45.000 Stop counting.

01:10:46.000 And they crunch the numbers and give it to them.

01:10:48.000 Come on, guys.

01:10:49.000 That's what, though, I just want to say, I'm not going down that route tonight.

01:10:52.000 Tonight is a different story, but I will say that in close elections, absolutely they do this, Andrew.

01:10:59.000 Stop.

01:10:59.000 Come on.

01:11:00.000 Stop.

01:11:01.000 Stop, Rich.

01:11:01.000 Come on.

01:11:02.000 All right.

01:11:02.000 What's the good news for Miaris here?

01:11:03.000 Because, Blake, you have an update on the betting markets.

01:11:07.000 It's not looking good in the betting markets.

01:11:08.000 The betting markets have it up to 90% that Jones wins.

01:11:12.000 So people who put their money where their mouth is.

01:11:16.000 Yeah, and I have mixed feelings on the betting markets.

01:11:20.000 I've watched them over the years gyrate back and forth wildly on election nights because as we get more votes, the picture gets clearer.

01:11:28.000 But look, he cannot win this thing if he doesn't win Chesterfield County.

01:11:32.000 There are a few things, a few pieces, right, that came together for Yunkin to be able to win this state in 2021.

01:11:39.000 And one, I mean, there's one piece of bad news, but it still can get a little bit better.

01:11:42.000 But in Chesterfield, it went back and forth all night long until eventually it settled at Yunkin being just slightly ahead, guys.

01:11:49.000 And when I say slightly, it was 51.8 to 47.4%.

01:11:53.000 Right now, looking at it with about 43% of the vote, it's Jones ahead 51.7 to 48.3.

01:12:01.000 And that is very, that bodes for, I mean, Chesterfield, just so people understand what I'm talking about.

01:12:06.000 There are affluent burbs here.

01:12:08.000 You have got to do well here if you're a Republican, if you want to have any prayer of winning this state.

01:12:13.000 Also in Louding County, it's almost all in.

01:12:17.000 So this last batch will have to bump Mayarez up a little bit, but he's only running about 2.3 points behind Yunkin in Louding County.

01:12:26.000 So when this last batch of election day vote comes in, he will have a chance to get a little bit closer to that.

01:12:31.000 But all of this still, even if he runs slightly behind Yonkin, these areas have a lot of votes.

01:12:36.000 All of this points to a very close race.

01:12:40.000 So, you know, if something changes dramatically, you know, we'll know.

01:12:44.000 But right now, Chesterfield, that next batch of votes that come in, guys, especially the election day, we have got to know where that comes from, which I will when it comes in, and, you know, how that vote broke.

01:12:55.000 Because if Mayarez can retake Chesterfield, it's going to be, it's good news for him. 1.00

01:13:01.000 It is.

01:13:02.000 So Chesterfield.

01:13:03.000 But it's bad news overall.

01:13:04.000 Let me just say, real quick, sorry, Andrew.

01:13:05.000 I don't mean to interrupt.

01:13:06.000 It's bad news.

01:13:07.000 It's bad news overall that this race is close, period, given what happened in this race.

01:13:13.000 And I heard you guys when I was waiting, you know, talking about it.

01:13:16.000 I mean, this is a guy who's going, he's the top cop in the state, Andrew.

01:13:20.000 And he was fantasizing about killing the children of his political opponent and watching the mother hold the children as they die in her arms.

01:13:27.000 This is where we are.

01:13:28.000 This is really sick stuff.

01:13:29.000 And Cliff Cliff made a great point.

01:13:31.000 I mean, by the way, the fact that you've got this gender split, Rich, like I'm going to be noodling on this all night and into the morning if Jay Jones wins, that you've got women, women. 0.54

01:13:45.000 So this guy's saying that he wants the mom of these two kids to suffer, watching his kids die.

01:13:50.000 And it's the women that are still defending this guy. 1.00

01:13:54.000 I think that's going to be the story, though, Andrew, is that I mean, I hate to I hate to make this like super early projection for the night is that President Trump and we encourage this during the last election a year ago.

01:14:07.000 We had a lot of men show up for elections.

01:14:11.000 And that was helpful.

01:14:14.000 This may be a situation where we look at the data that's coming back and we're going to see an underperformance with men, overperformance with women. 0.65

01:14:24.000 And again, your college-educated, middle-class female is voting basically straight line Democrat now in almost like 20-point margins, 25-point margins in a lot of these places. 1.00

01:14:40.000 So you're in a really bad shape.

01:14:43.000 This is a question that we've got to figure out as a movement is how do we have conversations with women to fix that? 1.00

01:14:51.000 And number two, how do we get men to show up for elections that are less meaningful to them personally?

01:14:58.000 And that's a real question.

01:14:59.000 That's a real question that we've got to answer.

01:15:00.000 We've got to figure out.

01:15:01.000 One piece on women that I think was, and just going back to lessons from 2024, was Maha.

01:15:09.000 So Maha played a huge role for that.

01:15:12.000 I didn't see a lot of Maha engagement in anything.

01:15:16.000 That's a really good point.

01:15:17.000 And I've said this again.

01:15:19.000 I have tweeted this, that Maha is extremely popular.

01:15:23.000 Maha is the most popular political movement in America today.

01:15:27.000 And I didn't see, did anyone bring in Nicole Shanahan to go and campaign in any of these races?

01:15:35.000 Was anyone really putting RFK Jr.

01:15:37.000 out for that?

01:15:38.000 Or asking RFK to come in or Dr. Oz or any of the big Maha types? 1.00

01:15:44.000 I would be doing that.

01:15:45.000 Rich, you were coming in?

01:15:48.000 I mean, I'm listening to you, and I'm just, I cannot agree with you more.

01:15:52.000 And I mean, this is definitely something that we have talked about, Jack, you know, right?

01:15:56.000 And we have tried to tell people the power of this movement.

01:16:00.000 I remember before Donald Trump and RFK appeared on the stage, your stage that you guys, obviously, I remember, put together.

01:16:08.000 I was commissioned to, yeah, I was commissioned to do a poll.

01:16:12.000 I was thinking that a lot of the stuff that we were actually asking voters about, now that we know, and now we know is Maha, right?

01:16:21.000 I was thinking that some of it would just be a certain group of the population.

01:16:25.000 I was blown away how these positions cut across all these different demographics.

01:16:32.000 I mean, it was some weird way you were able to find this unity message with the guy in like a working class auto worker in southeastern Michigan and the rural cat lady who smells like petroli oil in Vermont.

01:16:48.000 I mean, it was unbelievable the wide breadth of demographics that supported this.

01:16:54.000 And, you know, we just don't hear about it anymore.

01:16:56.000 I mean, it was great to put the coalition together and to win an election.

01:17:01.000 But since then, there's been nothing exactly, like you just said it, Jack.

01:17:05.000 Where's Nicole Shanahan? 1.00

01:17:06.000 Like, why are these tools not being used?

01:17:10.000 And I don't mean to call her.

01:17:11.000 You know what I'm saying?

01:17:12.000 There are tools in the toolbox that are not being used.

01:17:15.000 Right.

01:17:18.000 We got CrewKid $52, $5.

01:17:20.000 Hi, everyone.

01:17:20.000 Hey, Rich.

01:17:21.000 I'm probably going to have to be resigned to having a Kami as mayor of New York City voting straight rep in Nassau County. 1.00

01:17:29.000 Well, at least you're not in New York directly then.

01:17:31.000 You've escaped too further.

01:17:33.000 Sorry to hear that, crew.

01:17:34.000 But yeah, you probably are going to have a commie as mayor of New York. 0.91

01:17:37.000 Let's be blunt.

01:17:38.000 Well, this is to keep expanding on the Maha Miss, if we want to call it the Maha Miss.

01:17:45.000 And maybe that will be one of the titles on the screen tomorrow during the show, Andrew, is the Maha Miss.

01:17:51.000 Yeah, that's a good point.

01:17:52.000 The Maha Miss. 1.00

01:17:53.000 You probably get a guess.

01:17:54.000 I'm getting some intel from some insiders that are very close to some major Maha faces and voices.

01:18:01.000 I won't expose which ones, but they just confirmed as they're sitting next to them that they were not asked to do anything.

01:18:10.000 I'm not going to say who it was or where it was or whatever.

01:18:17.000 There was not an ask and there was a willingness to go out and campaign and help.

01:18:21.000 And so I think that this is a really important point from the campaigning standpoint is that part of the platform that has to be part of this new MAGA tent that we have is that Maha poll within the tent has to be respected.

01:18:36.000 It has to be talked about.

01:18:37.000 It has to be addressed, especially at the gubernatorial level.

01:18:41.000 I mean, and this is something to look ahead to next year.

01:18:44.000 I mean, we've got some really important gubernatorial elections, including here in Arizona that, you know, Andy Biggs better be paying attention and saying a big part of my campaign has to be about involving the Maha moms and the people that care about.

01:18:58.000 And I have a question, actually, Rich, maybe you'd be good on this.

01:19:01.000 So take it, rewind the clock back to 2021.

01:19:05.000 Yunkin wins by, it looks about, was it 64,000 votes, something like that?

01:19:11.000 It was 50.6% to 48.6%.

01:19:14.000 Pretty close.

01:19:15.000 63,200.

01:19:16.000 Yeah, pretty darn close.

01:19:18.000 And Yunkin is an exceptionally good candidate for the state of Virginia.

01:19:23.000 I mean, he's, you know, he's polished.

01:19:25.000 He's pretty moderate, really, but was able to rally behind the base.

01:19:31.000 Also, we had this dynamic with Loudoun County where you had the daughter with the trans situation, the bathroom, get sexually assaulted.

01:19:42.000 And then the father ends up having that viral video where he's getting like, I don't know, like escorted out of some city council meeting or whatever, right?

01:19:51.000 Or school board meeting.

01:19:53.000 So you had all this dynamic.

01:19:54.000 It was like the first touch point.

01:19:56.000 And that engaged women, right?

01:19:58.000 Because they saw what was happening to their kids at school.

01:20:00.000 It also engaged men, got them really fired up, and you had Glenn Young come in and say, we're not going to let this happen anymore.

01:20:08.000 What is the dynamic?

01:20:10.000 Is it all maha? 0.98

01:20:11.000 Do we just have that short of memories?

01:20:13.000 Like, where is all of that stuff?

01:20:15.000 I mean, we go back to 2024.

01:20:16.000 President Trump played that, you know, they're for they, them.

01:20:19.000 He's for us, right?

01:20:20.000 So like, where is that issue polling right now?

01:20:22.000 Where are women on that issue? 1.00

01:20:24.000 Or is it just, are men the ones that are more concerned about their daughters getting assaulted in some bathroom by a trans kid? 0.60

01:20:32.000 I mean, they are, but, and, and just to remind everybody, you know, when you're looking at married versus unmarried and parental demographics, um, across the country and in most states, married women, even married white women, uh still vote Republican, right?

01:20:48.000 But in Virginia, that's not the case.

01:20:51.000 So it actually took that specific issue going on to narrow the margin because Terry McCall still did win married educated women, but it narrowed the margin.

01:21:02.000 Now, married men was a blown margin. 0.95

01:21:06.000 It was something like in our polling, it was almost 30 points.

01:21:09.000 I think it ended up being 23 or something.

01:21:11.000 So Youngin won married men by this massive amount.

01:21:15.000 I think, and the exit polls I told people in the morning, people take it with a grain.

01:21:19.000 There's a lot of conflicting stuff.

01:21:20.000 There's all this background on why that is.

01:21:22.000 But I still do think that it's productive to look at what people have been saying, which we were just talking about the other day, Andrew, right?

01:21:30.000 Winsome Sears missed the mark here.

01:21:32.000 She spent, we were doing an analysis of what she spent her advertising on.

01:21:36.000 She focused on that issue as if it was a primary or secondary dominant issue to voters. 0.69

01:21:43.000 And it's just a lesson of know your crowd.

01:21:45.000 It was not.

01:21:46.000 It was a tertiary issue, which is, again, why I always implore people to do a rank distribution when you're testing issues.

01:21:52.000 Don't ask them to pick one or two issues.

01:21:54.000 It's just not good enough.

01:21:56.000 Do a rank distribution and you'll know where people's overall sentiment lies and how much weight they're giving to each issue.

01:22:01.000 This was economic constantly.

01:22:04.000 Cost of living is too high.

01:22:06.000 In this area, Jack and I were discussing this earlier.

01:22:09.000 This is not New Jersey.

01:22:10.000 These people are concerned about the government shutdown.

01:22:12.000 They are, and Yunkin was magical at this.

01:22:15.000 He walked and chewed gum at the same time.

01:22:17.000 He used those issues that were in the news at the time to his advantage, but he didn't just harp on them and ignore people's economic despair.

01:22:26.000 He talked about grocery prices.

01:22:28.000 Let's be real.

01:22:28.000 The Winston Sears campaign did not do that.

01:22:30.000 They didn't.

01:22:31.000 You can see it in the ad revenue.

01:22:32.000 I mean, they spent millions on just that issue alone.

01:22:35.000 And voters were screaming at them.

01:22:38.000 You know, we're not con if you give somebody a choice between an issue that they think about values-based or a way of living issue, maybe, or something like that.

01:22:50.000 It's important to them.

01:22:51.000 But when they have economic issues, I mean, directly, pocketbook, and they're thinking about it every week when the paycheck hits or every month when they have to pay their mortgage.

01:23:01.000 I mean, this is a no-brainer.

01:23:03.000 The economic issues will come first.

01:23:05.000 And I do think the right, which does in the voters' minds control the government, they have not been focused enough on domestic issues.

01:23:12.000 That's just clear.

01:23:15.000 Every poll says it.

01:23:16.000 Every voter screams it.

01:23:17.000 We got a couple more messages.

01:23:19.000 Brandon B. Ball, 13, gave $5 and says, hey, guys, watching on my break at work.

01:23:24.000 God bless you all.

01:23:25.000 Cliff, it's good to see you on the stream again.

01:23:28.000 Blake, thank you for the help on my research paper.

01:23:31.000 I almost wish I couldn't have helped him because the question was, what are all the ways Britain is in decline?

01:23:37.000 And the answer is there's like infinity reasons it's in decline.

01:23:40.000 Let's go look.

01:23:42.000 Glad I could help with that.

01:23:43.000 Uh-oh, I made my Diet Coke explode here.

01:23:46.000 Again, it happens.

01:23:47.000 It happens.

01:23:48.000 They explode.

01:23:48.000 Just get it away.

01:23:50.000 Three minutes until but I'm glad I could help you with that, Brandon.

01:23:53.000 I just wish Britain was a little better.

01:23:55.000 And then Naniak says, the people on Twitter telling women leaders to go home and shut up does not help college-educated white women to join the movement. 0.99

01:24:05.000 Look at how Allie's been treated. 1.00

01:24:07.000 I haven't followed that ongoing thing.

01:24:10.000 I assume that's Allie Beth Stuckey.

01:24:11.000 I will say Charlie was always a fan of Ali Beth Stuckey.

01:24:14.000 Oh, yeah.

01:24:14.000 Big supporter of hers.

01:24:16.000 She's a great woman.

01:24:17.000 So I don't know what people have been saying there.

01:24:19.000 I will say, big picture, Twitter drama probably doesn't decide elections one way or the other.

01:24:25.000 No, it does not.

01:24:26.000 But, you know, it's also not good.

01:24:28.000 Like we were saying earlier, there were people saying, like, I'm not going to vote because X, Y, Z, dumb reason.

01:24:34.000 And guys, you've got to vote.

01:24:37.000 In the end, that is who decides who holds offices in this country.

01:24:42.000 And you can't do things unless you hold offices in this country.

01:24:45.000 So if you don't vote, you are seceding.

01:24:47.000 You are basically quitting and taking your ball and going home, you know, until they, you know, the people who did win the election just go and take your ball from you, too.

01:24:55.000 Until they seize the means of ball bouncing.

01:25:00.000 Yes.

01:25:01.000 One minute until polls close in New Jersey.

01:25:03.000 Oh, boy.

01:25:04.000 One minutes.

01:25:05.000 You're in line.

01:25:06.000 Stay in line.

01:25:08.000 If you want to run to Wawa and pick up some Wawa coffee and donuts for people who are waiting in line over there in Ocean County, Toms River, Lakewood, just go out there, be that guy, be that helper.

01:25:21.000 I know, I think I remember last year, people were, you know, people were sending like DoorDash, you know, just like random DoorDash orders to the lines, to the polling places, especially in some of these places where they kept it open later.

01:25:34.000 Like, by the way, maybe that's even something, Tyler, maybe that's even something we could do for the people of Chester County because they're going to be out there till 10 p.m. tonight in Pennsylvania.

01:25:45.000 Pennsylvania, most of the state in 66 of the 67 counties, you have one more minute to vote.

01:25:51.000 But in Chester County, you have two more hours.

01:25:54.000 I'm trying to run some.

01:25:55.000 I'm looking at numbers on, I'm just continuing to watch the Virginia race here.

01:25:58.000 I'd say biggest red flag we've got.

01:26:00.000 Fairfax is 36% in.

01:26:03.000 They still are holding back their votes.

01:26:05.000 They're at about the overall.

01:26:07.000 When you look at it, this race is tied.

01:26:09.000 It has a 2,000-vote difference.

01:26:11.000 And you have almost all of Loudoun in.

01:26:13.000 You have Alexandria is ahead of the overall numbers.

01:26:17.000 Fairfax is about tied with the overall numbers, but Norfolk is ahead.

01:26:22.000 Richmond City, that one's going to be ugly.

01:26:24.000 That one's mostly not in.

01:26:25.000 But we also have very little of Chesapeake in.

01:26:28.000 That's going to be a Republican city that's pretty large.

01:26:31.000 We have a lot of Virginia Beach out.

01:26:32.000 We're winning that by 10 right now.

01:26:34.000 We have a few red counties that are still 0% in the hinterland.

01:26:39.000 I think this could be going down.

01:26:41.000 I know the prediction markets show it favoring Jones, but I think this will be very close either way.

01:26:46.000 Halifax is.

01:26:48.000 This will be close.

01:26:49.000 Yeah, so Rich, we go back to Chesterfield County, which is the suburbs, the sort of wealthier suburbs outside of Richmond.

01:26:57.000 That's right.

01:26:58.000 And it's breaking for Jay Jones right now, 51 to 48.

01:27:02.000 So super tight, super tight.

01:27:04.000 Where does that number need to end up tonight as a good indicator of what Miaris' likelihood of winning this race are?

01:27:12.000 Well, remember, too, we do get those early dumps that occur, right?

01:27:16.000 And then this will even up a little bit.

01:27:18.000 Yunkin won Chesterfield County with 51.8% of the vote.

01:27:22.000 McAuliffe had a little over 47% of the vote.

01:27:26.000 So, I mean, look, there's obviously he'll do better and worse in some counties and others.

01:27:31.000 Virginia Beach was mentioned before.

01:27:33.000 He's actually outperforming Yunkin by about a point so far in Virginia Beach.

01:27:37.000 And there's still a lot of vote out there, but he does need to win Chesterfield County.

01:27:41.000 It's hard for me to imagine because of the demographics just being so similar and so many areas around the state.

01:27:48.000 And we talked about it before.

01:27:50.000 It's hard for me to imagine Mayar as winning the state without winning Chesterfield.

01:27:55.000 It's just, I mean, without getting too much into the weeds, it can be close.

01:28:01.000 I mean, close.

01:28:03.000 But he's got to eke it out.

01:28:05.000 And then another thing that I am looking at is that Fairfax right now, he's running about four points behind.

01:28:11.000 We still do have a lot of vote out and a lot of election day vote, which will look different.

01:28:14.000 But Yunkin did about five points, actually, about five points better than what we're seeing right now.

01:28:20.000 So that's got to pick up the pace.

01:28:23.000 Yeah, we're 48.

01:28:24.000 48% in.

01:28:25.000 48% in in Chesterfield.

01:28:27.000 So that's a good bellwether county if we're looking at.

01:28:30.000 We're looking.

01:28:31.000 So if a Republican wins that, then that's going to be helpful.

01:28:35.000 If the Democrat wins that, that's a bad sign.

01:28:38.000 And it's a big red flag.

01:28:41.000 That was the big red flag in 21 to even all the left-wing pundits.

01:28:45.000 I mean, their heads were exploding because Chesterfield is, we were just talking about how does the Republicans party speak to especially more affluent women?

01:28:55.000 This is an area out, like you said.

01:28:57.000 I mean, this is Richmond Burbs.

01:28:59.000 I mean, this is a difficult area for Trump, a difficult area for other Republicans.

01:29:04.000 And Mayaris is considerably outperforming the other Republican candidates here.

01:29:09.000 The vote that's out, the question is, is it favorable enough to put him over the top?

01:29:14.000 There was one batch that came in before.

01:29:17.000 I thought it would be a little bit better for him.

01:29:18.000 It wasn't, but it's still that it's this close.

01:29:21.000 He definitely has a chance.

01:29:22.000 Just to let people know, too, in 21, Virginia will do this.

01:29:25.000 You'll get a big chunk of the early vote.

01:29:27.000 The election day vote will come in.

01:29:29.000 And then some areas will say, oops, I did forget this early vote.

01:29:31.000 And they'll throw it in there.

01:29:32.000 And sometimes a little hard to, you know, to parse out.

01:29:36.000 But Yunkin and McAuliffe went back and forth all night.

01:29:39.000 In fact, the race was called for Yunkin when Chesterfield had a little bit left on the table and McAuliffe was just a hair ahead.

01:29:48.000 And then when that last batch was counted, it put Yunkin over.

01:29:51.000 So, I mean, it still can be close, you know, but he's got to get it closer.

01:29:55.000 And I mean, we're getting to the point where some of these counties, so far, with the exception of Fairfax, are doing pretty good reporting their votes.

01:30:03.000 So I'm not sure we're going to have the similar situation that we had in 21.

01:30:07.000 We will see.

01:30:07.000 But one thing that is a bit, you know, if I had to play Devil's Advocate here, Louding County, that three-point underperformance, I know it's just one county, but it kind of is a big deal.

01:30:18.000 And why I'm looking towards Chesterfield to see where he can make it up.

01:30:22.000 Because, I mean, a three-point underperformance if Yunkin won by roughly two, it means a very close race.

01:30:29.000 It means a like 50.5 guys, you know, kind of win.

01:30:33.000 And that's a nail biter.

01:30:35.000 You know, underperformance somewhere can wreck that, can wipe that away.

01:30:39.000 So, you know, it's that close.

01:30:41.000 It really is that good.

01:30:42.000 This will be a very close race.

01:30:43.000 That's what all indicators show.

01:30:45.000 We're going to be counting votes in Virginia for the next couple, you know, hour and a half here before we get a better idea.

01:30:51.000 I really think that.

01:30:52.000 We have Erica Rice donated $10 and says, I watched the full live stream in 2024.

01:30:57.000 Is that video still posted?

01:30:59.000 I haven't been able to find it after losing Charlie this year.

01:31:02.000 I would love the opportunity to go back and re-watch it.

01:31:05.000 If it's not on YouTube, it's got to be on Rumble.

01:31:07.000 It's on Rumble.

01:31:08.000 I know for sure.

01:31:08.000 I actually was looking at it earlier today.

01:31:10.000 It's still on Rumble, by the way.

01:31:12.000 I checked it.

01:31:13.000 It's 11 hours and 13 minutes long.

01:31:15.000 That's exactly right.

01:31:16.000 So if you go in, if you go in and watch, and Blake, you and I were chatting, I think we went from noon to about 1 a.m.

01:31:23.000 Something like that.

01:31:24.000 Or no wait.

01:31:24.000 Now that without doing local time, it was like 2 p.m.

01:31:27.000 It was like 2 p.m. Eastern.

01:31:28.000 That would be 13 hours.

01:31:29.000 So no wait.

01:31:30.000 It would have been noon to about 11 then.

01:31:32.000 Yeah, yeah.

01:31:32.000 I think we went low.

01:31:33.000 And then we also got Sunflower Jen gave five.

01:31:36.000 And she says, first election night without Charlie for me.

01:31:40.000 We miss him so much.

01:31:42.000 And we are really grateful for all of you keeping this alive.

01:31:45.000 Thank you.

01:31:46.000 Thank you, Jen.

01:31:47.000 Thank you for tuning in, letting us continue to.

01:31:51.000 I want to bring us back to the original one because when we figured this out, so just to give some context here, the first stream that we did was, I think it was 2018.

01:32:07.000 I know that we got a ton of eyeballs during the 2020 race.

01:32:12.000 It was 2018.

01:32:13.000 2020.

01:32:13.000 It was like we did our first, let's kick the tires on this thing.

01:32:17.000 And it was like super rough.

01:32:18.000 And we just were like, let's go live because people are interested in talking about this.

01:32:22.000 And the response that we got heading into 2020, where we went hard in 2020, and that took years off our life being up like every night for like weeks, it felt like it was like months, it felt like.

01:32:35.000 We got a stream.

01:32:36.000 But we did this stream.

01:32:38.000 The whole idea of doing the stream was to give people an alternative to this just terrible product that standard media gave, which they gave no consensus on what was going on.

01:32:50.000 They weren't watching things.

01:32:51.000 They, you know, they were have interjection from a bunch of random pundits that have like their own agendas and everything else.

01:33:00.000 And, you know, here what you get as you're following, we're just feeding to you things as they're coming in.

01:33:05.000 And we're telling you, you know, some real life people on the ground, especially with our team that we have at Turning Point Action.

01:33:13.000 You know, and obviously we have Cliff with Citizens Alliance and so many other friends.

01:33:18.000 But this is where we just kind of deliver more.

01:33:22.000 And we're going to keep doing that.

01:33:23.000 We're going to do that.

01:33:24.000 You know, this is the first big election that we don't have Charlie with us, as we said in the chat.

01:33:30.000 But yeah, the next election, which will be a year from now, that will be the first big midterm since, you know, obviously Charlie being taken from us.

01:33:40.000 And so this is a warm-up.

01:33:43.000 And I think it would be really important for us to just mention while we're on the stream right now, President Trump put out a really important true social today.

01:33:51.000 And his true social said, hey, guys, and I'm paraphrasing, but hey, guys, the radical left is out of control.

01:34:00.000 Regardless of what happens with the election tonight, we are going to be in a world of hurt if we don't get rid of the filibuster.

01:34:06.000 And we can debate this a little bit because I'm sure Blake might have different viewpoint on this, but I agree with the president.

01:34:15.000 If we don't get rid of the filibuster, we're going to be walking ourselves right into a radical government that's hijacked by the left, where they pack the Supreme Court, they make D.C. and Puerto Rico states, and we add four more Senate seats that are going to flip the Senate almost permanently.

01:34:36.000 And you have a number of different other things that they're trying to do.

01:34:39.000 Of course, we know getting illegals to vote, as we're going to see, I think, in New York City tonight.

01:34:43.000 And so you have a hijacking of our country, a hijacking of the Constitution.

01:34:48.000 And I thought it was really interesting that he posted that this morning.

01:34:51.000 And I thought that was really good debate fodder as we sit here and we watch some of the returns come in.

01:34:56.000 I wanted to, you know, I want to throw, and Rich, I know you got to run soon.

01:35:00.000 I want to throw it to you.

01:35:01.000 You mentioned something earlier here.

01:35:04.000 And I know that you came on the main show, the Daily Show, talking about this.

01:35:09.000 And you mentioned about the focus between domestic issues that voters want versus what they feel is sort of an overdue focus on foreign policy.

01:35:22.000 And to be clear, President Trump's had a lot of foreign policy wins, but at the same time, that also leaves this opening on domestic policy.

01:35:30.000 What are you seeing and unpack what you were saying there?

01:35:33.000 Yeah, I don't know how many different ways I can try to explain this, but it's come down to this.

01:35:41.000 I mean, in a state like Virginia and New Jersey, and even New Jersey, not less so Virginia, but New Jersey, it's a great example of this, Jack.

01:35:49.000 I mean, he did incredible for a Republican presidential candidate in that state.

01:35:54.000 And, you know, so you have voters like that that are new to the Trump coalition in that they voted for him.

01:36:00.000 But then we have the other voters that you and I have drilled on for years, which are these disconnected, disaffected.

01:36:07.000 They feel like the American dream is gone, you know, that their leaders have abandoned them.

01:36:13.000 And they did not vote for this much focus on foreign policy.

01:36:17.000 I don't know how to do this any other way.

01:36:19.000 This is who I am.

01:36:20.000 I'm brutally honest.

01:36:21.000 This has been too much attention on foreign affairs and foreign policy successes cannot save a president from his approval rating declining over things like this.

01:36:32.000 And then the party suffering over it.

01:36:34.000 I know he's done great things.

01:36:35.000 That's not the point.

01:36:36.000 It really isn't.

01:36:37.000 They elected him to what we hear all the time is, what's going on?

01:36:42.000 Why is he over there?

01:36:44.000 I voted for him to fix Biden's economy.

01:36:47.000 I wanted him to bring the economy back that we had under his first administration.

01:36:50.000 This is what we overwhelmingly hear.

01:36:53.000 And then there is, and I know we're trying to avoid it here, but I guess, but there's a rift going on in the actual coalition.

01:37:00.000 And the larger side of this coalition feels that Donald Trump is literally their last chance to put that American dream back on the board.

01:37:10.000 And they want focus on that.

01:37:12.000 Laser focus, Jack.

01:37:14.000 And they're not getting it.

01:37:15.000 They're not seeing it.

01:37:16.000 Did you look at our latest polling?

01:37:18.000 It's overwhelming.

01:37:19.000 Go back to domestic issues, please.

01:37:21.000 They're begging for it.

01:37:22.000 First New Jersey data is in.

01:37:24.000 It is, yeah.

01:37:25.000 Since it just came in.

01:37:28.000 And Rich, just to say, I mean, I think there's a lot of truth to that.

01:37:31.000 And I think that, you know, if we see, and we saw Mom Donnie, by the way, play into that opening when he said, like, I care about New York.

01:37:41.000 I don't want to go.

01:37:41.000 He's going anywhere.

01:37:42.000 He, of course, lied the way communists all lie, but like, that's not the point.

01:37:46.000 Is that when he came out publicly, every single time he did this, he talked about left-wing populism, resentment, populism, and he talked about local issues all day long.

01:37:57.000 Jen Lou $50. 0.95

01:38:00.000 I don't understand why Republicans don't come out in off-cycle elections.

01:38:05.000 And that's something we're going to be talking about that a lot because it's going to be an issue next year as well because it is a change.

01:38:10.000 In 2010, in 2014, the narrative was all the Republican advantage in midterm off-cycle elections and that it was Obama who had those loosely affiliated voters who only turned out every four years.

01:38:23.000 Well, Blake, I mean, to that point, too, we're going to see some differences between some of these elections because some of these elections are going to have a similar turnout number between Republicans and Democrats, which in the context of some of these races, that's pretty good because the Democrats actually have a ground game.

01:38:41.000 In some of these states, we don't have as much of a ground game.

01:38:43.000 The Republicans don't have as much of a ground game.

01:38:45.000 And so the big, big question will be is not just turnout, but also how do we register more Republicans?

01:38:53.000 And this is, again, this is the Scott Pressler, you know, screaming from the rooftops.

01:38:57.000 There are some states we have a Republican voter registration advantage.

01:39:02.000 There are many states, including deep red Republican states that you would recognize as a Republican state that we don't have a Republican voter registration advantage.

01:39:11.000 The ones that we win all the time, but they have lower turnouts.

01:39:15.000 And so it's really important to look at this and say, okay, this is a numbers game where we've got to register more voters in some of these states.

01:39:22.000 And then we've got to actually put the boots on the ground to chase the voters to turn them out in order to win. 0.79

01:39:27.000 And this is really important when we talk about young voters because young voters, first-time voters in particular, they need help voting, just like seniors need help voting.

01:39:38.000 Hey, everybody, Andrew Colvett, executive producer of the Charlie Kirk Show.

01:39:41.000 Charlie understood that to lead, he needed to learn.

01:39:45.000 Hillsdale College was ready to teach him.

01:39:47.000 While busy running his company, teaching America's youth and raising a beautiful family, Charlie still found time to complete 31 Hillsdale College free online courses.

01:39:56.000 He talked about it the last time he spoke on his podcast with Hillsdale's president, Dr. Larry Arn.

01:40:01.000 Hillsdale is the cutting edge, and I mean it.

01:40:03.000 It is America's greatest college.

01:40:04.000 You are a force of nature, Charlie Kirk.

01:40:07.000 One of these days, I'm going to give you an honorary degree.

01:40:09.000 That would be the honor of my life, but I got a lot more learning yet to do.

01:40:13.000 And I say this, the Hillsdale courses have changed my life.

01:40:15.000 Through Hillsdale College's free online courses, Charlie studied the Bible, the classics, the American founding, and through his relentless pursuit of truth, became not only a great American, but a good man.

01:40:26.000 Charlie's gone, but his spirit of hard work and lifelong learning carry on.

01:40:29.000 Each of us can follow his example and pick up where he left off.

01:40:32.000 So learn like Charlie did at charlie for hillsdale.com.

01:40:36.000 That's charlie for hillsdale.com.

01:40:40.000 I'll never forget, actually, and Rich, I have one more question for you before we send you on your way, but I'll never forget this when we were doing Turning Point Action and some of the education that we were getting from the field of these low-prop voters.

01:40:53.000 You'd have guys with like Trump shrines in their garages, and they would tell you, yeah, they'd voted, but it was like they literally, they just filled out some like online poll or something.

01:41:03.000 You know, they literally, and I think some of it was like too proud to admit they didn't know how to register or something.

01:41:09.000 I mean, some of these people that are really on board, they are completely apolitical in every other facet of their life.

01:41:17.000 And so you do have to hold their hands.

01:41:19.000 You have to show them how to register, what to do with the ballot.

01:41:21.000 You get just like 101, like civics 101 with these people.

01:41:25.000 And you just have to kind of encourage them.

01:41:27.000 So there's a lot of work to do, but I do think that we're going to see some of this enthusiasm gap, Rich, you're going to see balance out when it comes to a general election.

01:41:37.000 I got to believe it.

01:41:37.000 You get somebody like JD Vance on the ballot, you're going to probably get some of those suburban educated conservatives that we've lost in the Trump era.

01:41:45.000 I think they're going to come back home.

01:41:47.000 I hope.

01:41:48.000 It's TBD, but I'm going to hope for that.

01:41:51.000 But Rich, we haven't talked about this with you yet.

01:41:53.000 And so I want to pivot to the Momdani race. 1.00

01:41:57.000 First question is: what is your, if you just had to crystal ball it, where do you think that race is going to end?

01:42:03.000 How much is Momdani going to win by?

01:42:05.000 Or do you even think that Cuomo has a shot?

01:42:06.000 First question.

01:42:07.000 And second of all, what are the takeaways from that race?

01:42:11.000 I know everybody likes to cherry-pick good signs out of, you know, which is good, you know, which is good for their side.

01:42:17.000 I get it.

01:42:18.000 But that electorate looks young enough for me for him to run away from this.

01:42:22.000 I just don't see any path for Cuomo at all.

01:42:24.000 I just don't.

01:42:25.000 I'm not even going to entertain it at this point.

01:42:27.000 I know higher turnout typically was considered to have favored Cuomo.

01:42:33.000 In the primary, that seemed to benefit Momdani that there was this fall off of certain voters, but he needed younger, under 45 voters to really come out gangbuster for him.

01:42:43.000 Just so people understand the record for New York City for mayoral election was before this, because this will break it, was Giuliani versus Dinkins.

01:42:54.000 And then he eked it out.

01:42:55.000 Later, Giuliani became very popular.

01:42:57.000 But he needed that high turnout at that time to beat Mayor Dinkins to overcome the registration advantage.

01:43:03.000 He needed a lot of normies to come out and say, I've had it.

01:43:06.000 Crime is crazy.

01:43:07.000 I'm fed up.

01:43:08.000 In this case, it's not super old.

01:43:11.000 I mean, that's just what Cuomo needed.

01:43:13.000 He needed older.

01:43:15.000 Yeah, and it's not there.

01:43:16.000 Is it Decision Desk has made it?

01:43:18.000 Decision Desk just made the call that Cheryl wins. 1.00

01:43:21.000 Cheryl has won.

01:43:22.000 Yeah, I was honestly getting somewhere.

01:43:25.000 Yeah, it is.

01:43:26.000 And I was, honestly, guys, he's running behind in Ocean where he ran behind last time.

01:43:32.000 I know that, you know, that wasn't fully counted, but at 41% in, that last batch just did not go the way that he needed it to go.

01:43:41.000 And in Hudson, she's running considerably ahead of Murphy.

01:43:45.000 And again, we're about half the vote in.

01:43:47.000 So we kind of know, you know, that first third is going to be really blue.

01:43:51.000 And then after that, you've got to make up some ground.

01:43:55.000 You have to.

01:43:55.000 So I know a lot of, I know there were some people that put in a lot of effort there.

01:43:59.000 I applaud them for that effort.

01:44:02.000 You know, next get them next time, Tiger, you know, but it just wasn't there this time, guys.

01:44:05.000 The independent vote share was too low.

01:44:07.000 It was too low.

01:44:09.000 You just didn't have the turnout with independents that you would need to make up the voter registration disadvantage that Republicans have in New Jersey.

01:44:17.000 New Jersey has such a bad disparity between Republicans and Democrats and voter registration numbers that you depend on a more conservative, independent turnout.

01:44:29.000 And again, I'm going to tell you this.

01:44:30.000 I mean, you have independents on the ballot.

01:44:32.000 Not good, right?

01:44:33.000 That's just not helpful to Republicans in New Jersey.

01:44:36.000 And the Democrats know that.

01:44:37.000 And that's why they fund and help these candidates to split because a few thousand votes here and a few thousand votes there goes a long way to helping you win a gubernatorial.

01:44:50.000 And again, the Republicans are really bad at this.

01:44:52.000 You know who was really good at this?

01:44:54.000 John McCain always split his opponents, his opponents' vote by getting Green Party candidates on the ballot and independents that split them.

01:45:02.000 John McCain, you can disagree with John McCain all you want.

01:45:05.000 The guy knew how to win elections.

01:45:06.000 Well, it was just, I mean, this is just a technique element of elections is that you've got to register more voters to give yourself a shot.

01:45:17.000 You've got to chase those voters.

01:45:18.000 And then you can't split your voters, especially amongst independents who lean your way.

01:45:23.000 I mean, Jack in every poll, right, was polling ahead almost 20 points with independents in New Jersey.

01:45:31.000 It's just if they don't show up to vote, then it doesn't matter.

01:45:35.000 It doesn't matter how far ahead you are.

01:45:37.000 It's not going to impact you.

01:45:38.000 Here's a bad sign in Virginia, Rich.

01:45:41.000 It looks like Jay Jones is outperforming Kamala Harris in Loudon County.

01:45:46.000 That is.

01:45:48.000 I am looking at that, and they did adjust it that there's a little bit more vote out there.

01:45:54.000 I just don't know how he's going to get to 44%, which is what, I mean, look, you know, obviously that's a county where Democrats used to have a trouble in.

01:46:04.000 You know, I mean, just going back, not that long.

01:46:06.000 You know, George Bush did great in Loudoun County.

01:46:09.000 It's just one of those where if Republicans don't meet a certain floor, which Junkin, he got 44% of the vote in Loudoun.

01:46:16.000 Right now, Mayoris is, he's just, he needs a few more points.

01:46:20.000 I don't know how 6% of the vote that's been counted already, 6% more of the total vote cast.

01:46:27.000 I don't know how that's going to get him another three points.

01:46:30.000 So it looks like he will fall there.

01:46:31.000 He'll need to make it up in other areas like Virginia Beach, where he is running ahead.

01:46:35.000 But you just, yeah, that was a warning sign.

01:46:38.000 And again, if he does not make this up in Chesterfield, there were another few votes counted in Chesterfield.

01:46:43.000 It barely moved the needle.

01:46:45.000 If he doesn't make it up in Chesterfield, I mean, the one good thing, and I'll leave it at this, but I mean, again, it's, I mean, I'm really getting in the weeds here, and it's just not that much.

01:46:55.000 It's not that significant.

01:46:57.000 But it does look like the mountain vote is the share of the overall state is higher than I expected it to be.

01:47:04.000 I thought it'd be like 19 or 20% if they were lucky.

01:47:08.000 But, you know, it does look like it's 2021.

01:47:11.000 So that gives him a little bit to offset some of the underperformances in other areas.

01:47:16.000 But, I mean, guys, you got to hit these benchmarks.

01:47:18.000 At the end of the day, I mean, he's got to win Chesterfield.

01:47:21.000 You just, you can't lose that and then win the state.

01:47:23.000 I don't see it.

01:47:24.000 All right.

01:47:24.000 Well, Rich, you have been very generous with your time tonight.

01:47:27.000 We appreciate you, brother.

01:47:28.000 Appreciate you, brother.

01:47:29.000 And have a good night.

01:47:31.000 And we're going to stay on it here on the stream.

01:47:35.000 And just last thing I'll say, still looks locked in.

01:47:39.000 48% of the vote, 5148 in Jay Jones' favor in Chesterfield.

01:47:43.000 So we haven't gotten any more of that vote.

01:47:45.000 So we're going to watch that as a bellwether for the Virginia AG race.

01:47:51.000 Take care, Rich.

01:47:53.000 All the best, guys.

01:47:54.000 See you soon.

01:47:55.000 Sounds good.

01:47:55.000 Thanks, Rich.

01:47:56.000 I want to bring Cliff in here.

01:47:57.000 Cliff, you know, we're looking at, you know, and obviously, you know, we want to say congrats to everybody, turning point action, NJ Chase, early vote action, to everyone who fought hard in New Jersey.

01:48:09.000 We always knew this was a Hail Mary.

01:48:10.000 We always knew that this was going to be something that, again, it was not supposed to be a competitive race at all.

01:48:17.000 We were trying to fight against the trend.

01:48:18.000 But Cliff, so looking at some of this going ahead towards maybe a 2028, looking at some of the trends, Cliff, what are some of the pieces that you'd want to put together for the infrastructure that we're going to need to build out in New Jersey if Republicans want to remain competitive there?

01:48:36.000 Yeah, well, let me start off by saying, you know, I appreciate all of the activists.

01:48:41.000 You guys getting me there?

01:48:42.000 You got me right.

01:48:43.000 I appreciate all the activists that have stepped up to help with this.

01:48:46.000 Look, I'm going to be honest, guys, 18 minutes is pretty rough.

01:48:50.000 18 minutes in to get that call.

01:48:53.000 I mean, obviously, Ocean County did not go the way we wanted it to.

01:48:56.000 It was supposed to be a stronghold.

01:48:57.000 We were hoping to see tremendous numbers there.

01:49:01.000 Republicans are doing okay, but the fact that Democrats are adding votes, and like you said, I mean, Tyler, one of the things that you just kind of hit me with is this idea that we really worked to turn out Republican voters, right?

01:49:14.000 And so they work to turn out independents.

01:49:16.000 I'm not blaming anyone.

01:49:18.000 But, you know, our whole model is: look, there's enough Republicans, or you hope there are, that can win this thing.

01:49:23.000 So, no, look, I think we got to learn from this.

01:49:26.000 We got to go back to the drawing board, figure out what worked, what didn't.

01:49:29.000 I'm going to probably take a week to two weeks to really do a deep dive on the data to see where is it that we targeted.

01:49:35.000 Where did we have some success?

01:49:37.000 Where did we not?

01:49:38.000 What did that look like compared to what the campaigns were spending in those areas, both Democrat and Republican?

01:49:44.000 I'm really hoping that he, you know, gives it a little bit of a comeback here.

01:49:48.000 I'm not saying he's got a shot at it, but I want to kind of see where our projection came in with the total votes.

01:49:54.000 And if it falls way short of the 3 million, then I feel like, okay, at least we understood we had to have a record turnout.

01:50:01.000 But yeah, I don't really have an answer other than, you know, we gave it a shot here.

01:50:05.000 I appreciate all the work that everybody did.

01:50:07.000 And I think it's about us figuring out where do we put resources for 2026 that can best be utilized.

01:50:13.000 Well, I mean, I could tell you right away on New Jersey.

01:50:17.000 Here's the first thing that I will say.

01:50:20.000 I mean, there has to be significant upgrades in how many ballot chasers that are put out into the field.

01:50:29.000 It's not going to be enough to have a few hundred people out into the field.

01:50:35.000 You know, Cliff, yeah, all by himself that's out there.

01:50:39.000 It has to be a well-funded, well-oiled machine of thousands of full-time people who are chasing people and making sure that they get their ballot in earlier.

01:50:48.000 And, you know, again, this isn't something, again, that we endorse.

01:50:52.000 So we say this all the time at turning point action.

01:50:54.000 We don't endorse the Democrats' playbook of early ballots, early votes, the way that they've changed these elections and turned them into multi-week, multi-month processes.

01:51:05.000 However, in the states where they've done that, they're getting the advantage.

01:51:09.000 And when you have, again, here in Arizona, when we won Arizona by the widest margin last election cycle, we stayed out ahead of the Democrats by seven to 10 points throughout the entire election cycle and early voting.

01:51:23.000 The Republicans are going to have to do that, where you have to be seven to 10 points ahead of your own percentage of how many total voters that you have.

01:51:33.000 It's ideal to be seven to ten points ahead of the Democrats, which is what we did here in Arizona, of how many total votes have been cast.

01:51:41.000 And that's really important for, again, the lessons.

01:51:44.000 This is just, this isn't like really difficult science here.

01:51:47.000 This is just if I'm winning the baseball game, if I want to win the baseball game, the World Series just wrapped up, I would rather be up a few points in early innings than trying to make up points, make up runs in the later innings.

01:52:02.000 Well, and this is what we're doing.

01:52:02.000 And this is the problem.

01:52:03.000 Right.

01:52:03.000 And this is what we learned going from 2022 to 2024 was that in 2024, it wasn't just a couple of weeks at the end where these ballot efforts, chasing the ballot efforts went into play.

01:52:18.000 It was an entire year of building infrastructure, of building those coalitions, of building the connections on the ground, finding and identifying who those highly motivated people are who wanted to be county captains and precinct captains and sort of the chief activists for their area and then working those universes up and down with the doors, knocking on them, going after the ballots.

01:52:43.000 And so you just need, you just need more infrastructure and more time.

01:52:47.000 That being said, though, this is you look at where New Jersey is right now.

01:52:51.000 This is where Pennsylvania was a couple of cycles ago, right?

01:52:55.000 So when we're looking at this in alternative, people are going to go, oh my gosh, how could this happen?

01:53:02.000 This wasn't supposed to be a competitive race at all.

01:53:05.000 New Jersey is a blue state, we were told.

01:53:08.000 New Jersey is a state that couldn't possibly elect a Republican.

01:53:13.000 But when you dig into these numbers and you look at the trend line on this, there's going to be a lot of things that we take away from it.

01:53:19.000 And I really do think having a more flushed out and long-term infrastructure there is going to be a huge investment that I hope to see, by the way, from the National Party level.

01:53:29.000 And then working as well with these various groups that, you know, obviously we're all members of.

01:53:36.000 We've got a few more messages.

01:53:37.000 Mike's wife, U.S., donated five and says.

01:53:40.000 I'm breaking into the Twizzlers now from the Halloween candy.

01:53:43.000 Let me know when I need to move to the Kit Kat zone.

01:53:46.000 And guys, I want to be in the Kit Kat zone right now.

01:53:49.000 Where we are right now too, just keep in mind, we still have a lot of election ahead of us.

01:53:53.000 We have, obviously, the Minnesota mayoral election, the Minneapolis mayoral election.

01:54:00.000 We have the New York City mayoral election.

01:54:03.000 We have the Arizona election that we're tracking.

01:54:08.000 We already know how California is going to go, but we'll talk about that and the impact that's going to have on the country.

01:54:12.000 So yeah, a lot of election left here.

01:54:15.000 We're looking at this in New Jersey as it's coming in.

01:54:18.000 It's estimated that about the remainder of the vote is going to be about split.

01:54:24.000 And so that's just, again, they're fairly evenly split.

01:54:29.000 Right now, Jack is down, give or take, about 200,000 votes, which is a significant increase.

01:54:37.000 It's more than two times the amount that he lost by last time.

01:54:41.000 So, you know, if he's got some places that he needs to make up votes, it's going to have to happen in a lot of different places across New Jersey that are more rural.

01:54:52.000 Again, the likelihood of that happening is probably low to be real, but we still have a lot of these Republican areas have not been counted or reported yet.

01:55:03.000 Speaking of Kit Kat Zone, Kit Kat Maher also donated.

01:55:07.000 I'm in New Jersey and my county, Ocean County, is red, but we are stuck with these lib losers ruining the area and I can't move yet. 1.00

01:55:16.000 Thank you so much for doing the show, everyone.

01:55:18.000 Miss Charlie so much.

01:55:20.000 We all do.

01:55:22.000 He'd want to be here.

01:55:24.000 He'd want to be here even with, you know, tonight's a rough night, but those are, that's the more important night to be here.

01:55:30.000 It's a last year, that was a celebration.

01:55:33.000 That was a lot of fun.

01:55:34.000 But where you really need people, where you really need to be out there fighting is when it's tough, when there's losses, when people get disappointed, when they feel down.

01:55:43.000 You have to always be rallying people, motivating people, getting them back up to fight again because the fight is forever.

01:55:51.000 And really, it only ends when you decide to quit and go home.

01:55:55.000 Look, we all sat here with Charlie Kirk on election night in 2022.

01:56:01.000 And we all know that that race, that night, did not go the way any of us wanted. 0.76

01:56:05.000 I think Reddit made a whole, you know, a whole kind of thing about it on us.

01:56:10.000 And look, we're not going to play that game anymore because we understood that what Charlie Kirk did was he looked at 2022.

01:56:19.000 He understood it from a lessons learned perspective.

01:56:22.000 And then he incorporated those lessons into the work and the infrastructure and the plan for 2024 and the coalition and the low-prop voter work that was done in that year.

01:56:37.000 So what are we going to do tonight with 2025?

01:56:41.000 We are going to learn.

01:56:42.000 We are going to learn the lessons and we are going to apply those to these midterm races, which are coming up.

01:56:48.000 Guess what?

01:56:49.000 One year away.

01:56:51.000 So we know that polls are closing across most of Pennsylvania right now, by the way.

01:56:55.000 It's 8.30.

01:56:56.000 And we know, I believe, New York is 9 p.m., right?

01:56:59.000 So New York is New York is a glorious blue state where they take approximately like an entire election cycle to count the ballots.

01:57:08.000 Count the ballots, right?

01:57:09.000 Got to allow people to get in their mail ballots from Guam or whatever.

01:57:13.000 I mean, I'm going to tell you, probably one of the most interesting things that's going to happen tonight is this New York City race.

01:57:19.000 And even no matter what, even if Mom Donnie takes it as expected, it's going to be interesting to me how much he takes it by because there seems to be a debate over that.

01:57:30.000 There could also be a pain breaking.

01:57:31.000 Decision desk HQ projects Jay Jones to win the Virginia AG.

01:57:36.000 Really?

01:57:37.000 Wow.

01:57:40.000 Wow.

01:57:41.000 I'm just on that one.

01:57:42.000 Mikey, you're going to sit here and say something funny, and I'm going to go eat real quick, and then I'll be back.

01:57:47.000 Yeah, you're going to sit here and you're going to entertain the audience, and I have to go get some food.

01:57:53.000 That's rough.

01:57:53.000 I'll be right back.

01:57:55.000 This is wild.

01:57:56.000 And of course, we're going to get the number real quick.

01:57:59.000 You know, I'm looking at the numbers.

01:58:00.000 It's 800,000 for Jay Jones.

01:58:04.000 Jason Millarez at 790.

01:58:06.000 That's with 47% in.

01:58:09.000 Mikey is about to join us here in a second.

01:58:11.000 He's getting locked in.

01:58:12.000 But Tyler.

01:58:13.000 So this is.

01:58:14.000 And I just got to, I'm going to reiterate what I said when he was at 300,000 votes.

01:58:19.000 We are being told, when we were told in the minutes, in the hours after Charlie Kirk's murder, that we have to unite, that we have to unite and stand against political violence.

01:58:31.000 Well, in Virginia, and this type of rhetoric, which I certainly do agree, that we have to unite against that.

01:58:39.000 And I'm more than willing to do so with anyone who's willing to do that.

01:58:43.000 But now I see 800,000 people, many of whom are Democrats, just voted for Jay Jones, who's a guy who wants to kill my children, who wants to kill Tyler's children, who wants to kill the children of conservatives.

01:58:59.000 He said this.

01:59:00.000 He said this and emphatically harassed people about this.

01:59:06.000 So how exactly are we the ones who need to unite when it was our friend who was murdered and it's the Democrats that in the numbers of hundreds of thousands are electing a candidate who has said he wants to kill our children?

01:59:21.000 Mikey McCoy joins us now.

01:59:23.000 Thank you for having me.

01:59:24.000 It's like the Olympic race when you pass the baton.

01:59:27.000 A little bit, yeah, I tapped in.

01:59:29.000 Andrew's fueling up.

01:59:31.000 Yeah, we're getting fuel.

01:59:34.000 Yeah, I like what you said, Jack.

01:59:35.000 There's 800,000 people that voted for this, and I just feel like...

01:59:38.000 And more to come.

01:59:39.000 More to come.

01:59:40.000 And this is someone who didn't even threaten the life of two parents, loving parents, but then these two children then doubles and triples down on it and says, quote, only when people feel pain personally do they act on policy.

01:59:54.000 That is the psyche of the left.

01:59:57.000 We will use our political power, political violence.

02:00:01.000 We will do whatever is necessary for you to feel pain so that you then act on policy.

02:00:07.000 And coming out of the 24 presidential election, it was a huge win for Republicans.

02:00:13.000 And I feel like Charlie used to always say this, complacency is a cancer.

02:00:17.000 I feel like we just got way too comfortable.

02:00:20.000 And it's going to be a blue sweep across the board.

02:00:23.000 Like this is a blowout.

02:00:27.000 Republicans have gotten destroyed.

02:00:29.000 It's a blue bath.

02:00:32.000 And it's just literally complacency is a cancer.

02:00:36.000 And Republicans have gotten too comfortable.

02:00:38.000 But also, Republicans are, they spend too much time in fighting than they do actually spending time on the wars and the battles that matter.

02:00:46.000 And that is a sign that we have too much time on our hands.

02:00:50.000 We are sitting back too comfortable that we are infighting.

02:00:53.000 This is the debate that, you know, that was kind of brought up by Jack.

02:00:57.000 He said, and sorry if I'm exposing you on this and you don't want me to say this, Jack.

02:01:02.000 But you said, what did I say?

02:01:03.000 What did I say?

02:01:05.000 I say a lot of things, Tyler Boyer.

02:01:07.000 Said, you said, I don't think Twitter fights matter with this stuff.

02:01:13.000 And I disagree with you.

02:01:14.000 And here's the reason why I disagree.

02:01:15.000 There are types of e-drama that, because you were meant, because I was specifically referring to the people who were not calling you out, I promise.

02:01:24.000 But what I'm saying to this is that, yeah, I think it does matter a little bit.

02:01:30.000 And here's the reason why it matters: is because your best people that have to go out and do the door knocking and do the work are usually the people who are paying the most attention now in the public sphere on X and some other places, but mostly X.

02:01:43.000 And those are the people that's where they go.

02:01:45.000 I mean, we've seen it because our activists, our top activists, are all super active on X.

02:01:50.000 And when you have drama on X, we've seen some of that this last year's couple.

02:01:55.000 Here's what I've also been saying.

02:01:56.000 And I have a tweet up right now talking about this.

02:01:58.000 So I was specifically talking about conservatism or excuse me, criticism of Ali Bastucki.

02:02:05.000 But I've also said that we've now seen the last few weeks of a bunch of people online who have spent their time engaged in e-drama, spent their time engaged in cancellation efforts and turf out efforts and just infighting rather than engaging in get out the vote efforts.

02:02:27.000 And if you're not engaged in get out the vote efforts, if you're not out there holding rallies, if you're not out there working on this to fight in the elections, then you are basically helping the Democrats.

02:02:37.000 And we've seen people, and I saw even this week, even Andrew Colvett just came back.

02:02:41.000 And you know what I'm talking about.

02:02:42.000 People were to your credit, by the way, you were out doing the work.

02:02:46.000 You showed up to rallies, helping encourage our door knocking efforts that we saw in New Jersey and some other places.

02:02:53.000 But, you know, not everybody was doing that.

02:02:54.000 Some people have a lot of, I've seen a lot of conservatives, and I have a list.

02:02:58.000 I certainly have a list.

02:03:00.000 If anybody wants to come at me about this, I'm more than happy to drop receipts that didn't post a single thing about voting in this election.

02:03:06.000 Or helping.

02:03:06.000 Or promoting it.

02:03:08.000 Or promoting it.

02:03:09.000 Or appearing at turning point events or doing any of this stuff.

02:03:13.000 Yeah, I just feel like when we're in fighting, it's our way of saying we have nobody else to fight.

02:03:16.000 So we're just going to fight ourselves.

02:03:18.000 Well, and guess what?

02:03:19.000 And guess what?

02:03:20.000 While we spent time doing that, what did the Democrats do?

02:03:23.000 They won elections.

02:03:24.000 Yeah, exactly.

02:03:25.000 And I also think that there was super low-hanging fruit this election cycle with what Winsom Earl Sears chose to spend, you know, ad money on.

02:03:35.000 You saw with Gavin Newsom, he told Charlie, he was like, the best ad that you guys had was, you know, Trump's for you, Kamala's for they, them.

02:03:44.000 And that ad just like killed it.

02:03:46.000 Why wasn't Winston Sears running ads saying, you know, I'm for your children.

02:03:51.000 My opponent is not.

02:03:52.000 My opponent has endorsed candidate and refused to condemn a candidate who wants to kill your children.

02:03:58.000 I want to make sure that men cannot come in your children's locker rooms, your daughter's locker rooms. 0.99

02:04:04.000 There's low-hanging fruit this election cycle.

02:04:06.000 And I feel like we totally missed the opportunity.

02:04:11.000 So, Cliff, let's extrapolate some of this.

02:04:15.000 You know, what, if any, wins can we take from this?

02:04:19.000 What are the losses that we need to make sure we fix moving forward?

02:04:24.000 Yeah, so I think first off, you know, there's a lot of lessons here.

02:04:28.000 I mean, Tyler probably was right to give me the warning that is, you know, if you're not going to permanently be somewhere, which is Jersey, you know, you don't have that infrastructure, you need to really think about is it worth it?

02:04:37.000 And do you have a four to six year plan to be there?

02:04:39.000 So I think that's a really good question.

02:04:41.000 I still want to see where these election day results come in, right?

02:04:44.000 I want to see just how bad it is.

02:04:46.000 I want to see if some of the, you know, some of the on-the-ground work that we were doing led to people voting on election day, whether it did not or whether it did.

02:04:54.000 I mean, we want to learn from that.

02:04:56.000 The only wins that I'm still holding out on at the moment are a lot of these PA races down ballot.

02:05:02.000 We're not going to win the retention races.

02:05:03.000 I've said that for a year.

02:05:06.000 I never lied to anybody about that.

02:05:07.000 Those are pretty much impossible to win.

02:05:09.000 I get a lot of people got excited about them, but they're not winnable.

02:05:13.000 But all the down ballots are where we are pretty fascinated at the moment.

02:05:16.000 And I want to see, you know, were the Democrats that good at turning people out that they got them to vote the entire ballot in Pennsylvania?

02:05:23.000 Or are a lot of these people just coming in and bullet voting?

02:05:26.000 But my biggest takeaway is, yeah, I mean, you got to pick the states where you have the resources and that you have the ability to win based on the demographics.

02:05:34.000 And it can't be a one-stop shop.

02:05:36.000 I mean, I think we need to figure out where we can go deep, where we can commit to for multiple years, multiple cycles.

02:05:43.000 And I still think I want to look at these numbers and understand, you know, where it landed.

02:05:47.000 Democrats showed up to vote.

02:05:50.000 Republicans did not.

02:05:51.000 That to me is not something I'm proud of.

02:05:53.000 It's not an excuse.

02:05:55.000 But at the end of the day, we've got to figure out how to fix that.

02:05:57.000 I think that's on all of us.

02:05:59.000 Well, and I think I still think Rich has the key insight here.

02:06:02.000 It's domestic issues.

02:06:03.000 It's the economy stupid.

02:06:05.000 It's jobs.

02:06:07.000 It's how much money people got in their bank account at the end of the month.

02:06:12.000 But check this out.

02:06:14.000 I mean, the media is going to run with this, right?

02:06:17.000 That this is a referendum on Trump.

02:06:18.000 So we've got to talk about it.

02:06:20.000 We've got to be ready for this attack vector and what we're going to say to it.

02:06:23.000 Play cut 229.

02:06:25.000 Virginia.

02:06:26.000 Different story in New Jersey, which we'll talk about later, where there are some very specific issues specific to New Jersey.

02:06:33.000 In Virginia, this is a little bit more of a referendum on Donald Trump and the federal government.

02:06:39.000 And right now, with 26% in, you're seeing a fairly significant lead, a 10-point lead for Abigail Spanberger.

02:06:47.000 So, Jack, this is going to be a referendum on Trump media narrative, right?

02:06:53.000 This is a referendum on Trump media narrative.

02:06:56.000 I do not think that that is a fair conclusion to draw.

02:07:01.000 First of all, do I think Trump should have gone out in New Jersey?

02:07:05.000 Yes.

02:07:05.000 Trump should have absolutely been out in New Jersey.

02:07:07.000 We talk about this: working-class voters, the muscular class, the people that love Trump.

02:07:13.000 They would have been motivated by that.

02:07:15.000 The argument against putting Trump out in Jersey was that he was going to be a get-out-the-vote draw for Democrats, right?

02:07:22.000 Well, you're losing, you're missing your best asset out on the field.

02:07:25.000 Maybe he didn't want to be tied to a loss.

02:07:27.000 I don't know what the exact rationale is here, but this is going to be the narrative for the next however many months.

02:07:35.000 And we have to.

02:07:36.000 And it's going to color the midterm narrative now.

02:07:41.000 Which maybe is good, by the way.

02:07:43.000 Can I just say, maybe it's good.

02:07:44.000 You got guys like Cliff Maloney and Scott Presley.

02:07:47.000 You've got turning point action.

02:07:48.000 We're out in the field.

02:07:49.000 And there is still a reticence within sort of the donor class on the right to not want to participate in ballot chasing, in door knocking, and get out the vote.

02:07:59.000 And that's the infrastructure piece that we have to make sure is robust if we're going to compete, especially in off-cycle elections.

02:08:05.000 Again, my hope is that we're going to be able to make up the Delta in a presidential election year.

02:08:12.000 But, you know, that's a hope and a prayer.

02:08:15.000 We have to actually do the work and build the machine if we're going to get there.

02:08:20.000 We have Blake Neff joining us again here.

02:08:22.000 We have Blake Neff joining us again.

02:08:27.000 So we have a new exit poll.

02:08:28.000 Trump was not a factor by 47% of voters in New Jersey and by 47% in Virginia.

02:08:35.000 And Andrew, to your point, this is really simple.

02:08:39.000 It's just more turnout, which means more ballot chasers.

02:08:41.000 Yeah.

02:08:43.000 Tyler's chiming in.

02:08:45.000 Tyler ran into the studio.

02:08:47.000 We're going to look at this and go, how did we lose?

02:08:49.000 Well, it's really simple.

02:08:49.000 We didn't have enough bodies to chase boats.

02:08:51.000 Tyler just said, people are going to look at this and say, how did we lose?

02:08:54.000 Well, it's really simple.

02:08:55.000 We didn't have enough bodies in the field chasing boats.

02:08:57.000 I'll just be really honest.

02:08:58.000 I think it's a little bit both and Winsome Sears.

02:09:02.000 I never had strong hopes that she was going to win.

02:09:05.000 You look at Governor Yunkin.

02:09:07.000 He had the tailwinds behind him with the Loudoun County stuff.

02:09:12.000 He's a, you know, what is he, 6'7 ⁇ ?

02:09:16.000 He's like this huge guy.

02:09:17.000 He's so tall.

02:09:18.000 He's so tall.

02:09:19.000 He's got this really polished demeanor, you know, the quarter zips, the vests.

02:09:23.000 Like he's just, he's straight out of central casting.

02:09:27.000 And Winsom Sears just had a different demeanor.

02:09:29.000 It wasn't, I felt like, and it's not about her being black and him being white.

02:09:32.000 Maybe it is about her being a woman and him being a man.

02:09:34.000 That's possible.

02:09:36.000 But I just felt like she just didn't have this captivating presence.

02:09:40.000 And I never thought that it was going to go her way.

02:09:44.000 So I'm not even going to look that much into Winsome Sears.

02:09:47.000 She seems like a lovely lady.

02:09:48.000 She did win, you know, she had the, rode the coattails of Yunkin in 2021. 1.00

02:09:55.000 But anyways, I just think it's, I think, yeah, more bodies in the field, but you also have to field the right candidates.

02:10:00.000 Listen, she won the Republican primary.

02:10:03.000 She got the right to do this, to run.

02:10:06.000 But I just didn't have great hope.

02:10:07.000 But that being said, I thought Chittarelli was going to do, I thought it was going to take longer to call that race, Jack.

02:10:13.000 You were out there campaigning for him.

02:10:15.000 He had momentum.

02:10:16.000 It was still a long shot.

02:10:17.000 Let's be fair.

02:10:18.000 This was a long shot in a blue state of New Jersey.

02:10:20.000 I thought he was going to have a little bit more.

02:10:22.000 Yeah, well, and I will say this, by the way, he had no momentum until September 10th.

02:10:28.000 And it's just true.

02:10:31.000 There was no excitement in that race, and people were just not paying attention to it at all.

02:10:35.000 And that was something that happened that made people go turn around and look and say, you know what?

02:10:41.000 Maybe we do give it a try.

02:10:42.000 And maybe we do actually focus something in.

02:10:44.000 And I think that you didn't see that until September 10th took place.

02:10:48.000 And so that's what really catalyzed this.

02:10:51.000 Now, that being said, it was only like two months of runway.

02:10:55.000 And it's not like people immediately started deploying to New Jersey.

02:10:59.000 So it was really this one-month crapshoot to see could, you know, could there be enough momentum to overcome what Tyler was talking about earlier, the massive Democrat registration advantage.

02:11:10.000 And no, it wasn't enough this time around.

02:11:12.000 But when you look at it, and I'm just going to say it again, New Jersey tonight is where Pennsylvania was a couple of cycles ago.

02:11:18.000 Here's one of the key differences that I'm picking up, and I want to toss this to Cliff, is that Trump isn't going to be on the ballot in the midterms.

02:11:27.000 He was on the ballot tonight.

02:11:28.000 He's not going to be on the ballot in midterms.

02:11:30.000 So how do you engage those people that would come out and vote for Trump, but aren't even paying attention to the election if Trump isn't there?

02:11:40.000 That's what a low prop or even a no prop voter is, no propensity voter.

02:11:44.000 My argument saying, going to Maha is saying you've got to go to each individual coalition of the Trump 2024 winning team and engage all of the different facets of it.

02:11:57.000 Not just Maha.

02:11:58.000 Maha, of course, was a big part of it, but you've got to go to Second Amendment. 0.92

02:12:01.000 You've got to go to veterans.

02:12:02.000 You've got to go to unions.

02:12:03.000 You've got to go to every single aspect of this to engage them and bring in the huge national stars to be able to get them to do that.

02:12:12.000 Is that going to be enough to win?

02:12:13.000 I'm not sure, but it does show that if you want that blueprint to win without Trump, you've got to find a way to engage on this.

02:12:20.000 Cliff Maloney, are you picking up what I'm putting down?

02:12:23.000 Yeah, look, let's sound the alarm here. 0.76

02:12:25.000 We have a low propensity problem in the Republican Party that, you know, just a few cycles ago was flipped and it was a problem on the Democrat side.

02:12:34.000 I'll give Tyler Boyer a lot of credit when he says that the only way to fix low propensities is to build relationships with them, right?

02:12:41.000 To do what the Democrats do, to run these reminder campaigns.

02:12:44.000 This isn't an excuse.

02:12:45.000 I'm not here to tell you, you know, oh, because of X, Y, or Z, we lost.

02:12:49.000 It wasn't candidate quality.

02:12:50.000 It wasn't the consultants.

02:12:52.000 It wasn't this or that.

02:12:53.000 We need to knock more doors.

02:12:56.000 We need to put more bodies on the ground in some of these states. 0.97

02:13:00.000 I feel like in 2024, a lot of us got lucky.

02:13:03.000 I'll just say that because Trump was able to carry the mantle and he was able to push and motivate a lot of people that we just weren't able to get to at the door.

02:13:11.000 We don't have Donald Trump on the ballot anymore.

02:13:14.000 And so I think you're right when you say like this is going to be a numbers game.

02:13:18.000 And I think we're going to analyze all the results.

02:13:20.000 We're going to see what we need to do.

02:13:22.000 And we need to keep building permanent infrastructure.

02:13:24.000 I don't think that this proves that what we're doing is not working.

02:13:27.000 I think if anything, it shows we've got to double down and really figure out how to beat the Democrats at their own game.

02:13:34.000 These initial numbers that came in, they very much surprised me, right?

02:13:38.000 I thought that a lot of these independents were going to break for Jack.

02:13:41.000 I thought a lot of these people that were going to come in.

02:13:43.000 I mean, we're seeing now that some Republicans did vote for Cheryl.

02:13:46.000 I mean, based on some of these crossovers, you know, we're down about 197,000 votes the last time I checked.

02:13:52.000 We've got about 31% in.

02:13:54.000 They're obviously calling the race.

02:13:56.000 It's a disappointment, but I think there's a lot of lessons for us to learn here.

02:14:00.000 And, you know, I think Jersey was a nice wake-up call that we definitely have a low propensity voter problem on the Republican side, and we need to fix it.

02:14:10.000 Yeah, so Holly wrote in and she says, hi, Andrew, it is a referendum on Trump.

02:14:15.000 And we've been emailing Charlie for months.

02:14:17.000 He needs to focus on American citizens for the love of God, not other countries.

02:14:21.000 Thanks, Holly.

02:14:22.000 What do you think about that, Jack?

02:14:24.000 Do you think that this is sort of like a confluence of a couple bad things happening all at once where we've got a low prop situation that's going on?

02:14:32.000 But we also, you know, Trump's dipping in some of the polls right now, right?

02:14:36.000 There's headwinds.

02:14:37.000 You've got the government shutdown.

02:14:39.000 You know, you've got debates about National Guard and ICE and all this stuff.

02:14:43.000 Is that what we're seeing?

02:14:44.000 It's a confluence of a bit of a referendum on where the focus is.

02:14:47.000 Well, I wouldn't necessarily say where the focus is.

02:14:51.000 I mean, but I do agree with you that voter, look, voters vote more on pocketbook issues and kitchen table issues than they do on issues that have to do with things that are overseas, right?

02:15:05.000 It's really as simple as that.

02:15:06.000 And I kind of see where the administration is sitting there, you know, going, well, wait a minute, we've done all this work on these peace deals.

02:15:13.000 We fought so hard to get this to end wars, which are obviously serious strategic problems and serious wins.

02:15:21.000 But at the same time, it's what the voters are focused on.

02:15:26.000 And cost of living in some of these areas is still a huge issue.

02:15:30.000 That's something that they're obviously responding at the ballot box with.

02:15:34.000 And there's a lot of people saying, look, I don't think the economy is working for me.

02:15:38.000 That's still a huge issue.

02:15:39.000 We do have a huge problem of mass migration in this country. 0.99

02:15:43.000 You're going to see that, by the way, rear its head when the New York polls close here in just a couple of minutes, 12 minutes until they've closed.

02:15:50.000 And we start getting those Mamdani numbers out. 0.79

02:15:53.000 And so, yes, it really just does come down to it's the economy stupid.

02:15:58.000 And when voters see more of that engagement on economic issues, when the Maha Coalition sees more engagement and more wins for Maha, that's something that's going to put that front and center.

02:16:11.000 But if you're not focused on those issues every single day, and by the way, I don't mean like talking about it.

02:16:16.000 I mean actually putting up the W's, putting points on the board, getting wins, getting prices down for people everywhere.

02:16:24.000 That's going to be what people want and that's people want to be able to see.

02:16:28.000 And yes, that then also includes like, you know, going, you know, go to the factories that are reopening and cutting the ribbon when the new factory reopens and seeing people flooding to, you know, flooding into those jobs.

02:16:42.000 Like those are the type of optics that you want to start to be seeing that will directly translate to votes in the midterms.

02:16:50.000 Yeah.

02:16:51.000 I want to, Zuzu's Pedals donated $10.

02:16:54.000 Jay Jones is a criminal.

02:16:55.000 Don't use his pedals.

02:16:56.000 Who didn't?

02:16:57.000 De Zuzu's Pedals supports us a lot.

02:16:57.000 We do.

02:16:59.000 Jay Jones is a criminal who didn't actually do his community service correctly.

02:17:03.000 It is only a matter of time before he has a huge scandal or breaks the law and has to be removed.

02:17:08.000 Mikey, we need a shame bell. 1.00

02:17:11.000 I have bad news is that he's going to commit crimes and he's still just not get removed from office.

02:17:16.000 Like, who are we kidding?

02:17:19.000 Shame.

02:17:20.000 Wow.

02:17:21.000 Like, being a criminal makes you a better Democrat, probably.

02:17:27.000 He might go actually kill a baby and get elected president.

02:17:30.000 Yeah, I just, we had a, we have a guy threatening to kill kids.

02:17:33.000 We got a communist that eats food with his hands.

02:17:36.000 This should be a warning sign going into the midterms that if we can't put up good numbers in races like these, or at least could have some good results. 0.71

02:17:45.000 Again, Cuomo is not a great candidate.

02:17:48.000 Okay.

02:17:48.000 He was not Sli-Wa is splitting the vote.

02:17:52.000 There's still hope.

02:17:53.000 I mean, big picture, I want to flag this as an issue.

02:17:55.000 Well, you can put some blame on Sli-Wa for not dropping out. 0.57

02:17:58.000 But another thing is, I think Sli-Wa was basically the only one who ran in the Republican primary.

02:18:03.000 So we're stuck in a case where we don't have a terribly serious candidate who could, you know, let's say a guy who could conceivably become mayor.

02:18:11.000 You know, maybe if a really radical guy won the Democrat or if another guy had to drop out, you need a credible candidate.

02:18:18.000 And if we had a credible candidate, we would have been able to pressure Cuomo to stay out.

02:18:21.000 We would have been able to possibly get more momentum for a Republican alternative, whether it's just run a normal cop or run a normal businessman or run a guardian angel.

02:18:33.000 Well, but that's the thing.

02:18:34.000 It's like a guy who a guy who we shouldn't be running a guy for mayor of the biggest city in America who looks like he's a character in a Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles episode.

02:18:45.000 And I think that God bless.

02:18:48.000 He's actually, I do think he's like a pretty great guy.

02:18:50.000 He is a great guy.

02:18:51.000 I'm sure.

02:18:52.000 But your point's well made.

02:18:54.000 He's had some crazy stuff.

02:18:56.000 I love how every debate that would happen or a question they get, it would be like, you know, they would answer a very normie and then he gets Sleewa and he's like, I was shot 15 times by the Cavitis and Gamboni. 0.95

02:19:08.000 You know, you can, I don't mind him, but there is this element of this is serious business.

02:19:14.000 I know.

02:19:15.000 And Tiffany says, none of you dumbasses look at suggestions. 0.99

02:19:19.000 You need a MAGA rally in every state every month.

02:19:23.000 It's not Trump's fault.

02:19:24.000 It's you who won't organize a MAGA rally in every state every month.

02:19:27.000 Well, okay, first of all.

02:19:29.000 By the way, turning point does look like often, all the time.

02:19:34.000 Yes.

02:19:35.000 But I would also note, like, it is resource intensive to organize massive rallies.

02:19:40.000 And also, as Charlie would point out, rallies don't win elections.

02:19:44.000 Ballots win the elections.

02:19:45.000 Pieces of paper in a box, not only do rallies not win elections, but that is our entire point.

02:19:53.000 Donald Trump, as much as we love him, he is not going to be on the ballot again, right?

02:19:59.000 If our crutch is to go back to say that Trump has to save us, obviously we'd love his time.

02:20:03.000 We'd love his resources.

02:20:04.000 We'd love his energy to come out and do any of these rallies or to try to help some of these candidates.

02:20:10.000 But that can't be the easy excuse, right?

02:20:12.000 We have to come up with other solutions the way the Democrats do.

02:20:16.000 And by the way, and I would just say, you know, it's a night like this that, you know, and every night, but it's really a night like this when Charlie's voice is, you know, very palpably felt.

02:20:30.000 You know, the absence of it is very palpably felt because, you know, it would be at a time like this where I know for a fact that Charlie would be calling up all of his contacts in the, you know, the sort of the political shop, calling up all of his contacts across the RNC, and he'd be saying, you know, hey, guys, this is what I'm getting.

02:20:52.000 This is the message I'm getting.

02:20:53.000 It's time to course correct.

02:20:55.000 We need more of this, less of this, and putting that into place.

02:20:55.000 It's time to do it.

02:21:00.000 And now you just don't have Charlie doing that.

02:21:05.000 And so those conversations, and I'm not going to say, look, we're going to have those conversations.

02:21:08.000 I'm going to have as many of those conversations as I can.

02:21:11.000 But, you know, not having Charlie around to be able to be that leader and that focal point for so much of where the base is at, you know, between the grassroots and the higher ups.

02:21:22.000 I think it's, I think it's very rough.

02:21:25.000 And I don't know.

02:21:26.000 I'm just kind of thinking about that right now.

02:21:27.000 It's, man, he'd be doing so much right now to, you know, to kind of figure out what the next plan is.

02:21:35.000 And of course, that was taken from us.

02:21:37.000 That was taken from us by a violent leftist.

02:21:41.000 And we are, you know, we're forever going to have to continue on.

02:21:45.000 But at the same time, you know, at the very same time, there's a lot of things we can point to in terms of how this has to work.

02:21:53.000 And it's very clear to me that infrastructure going forward is absolutely going to be key.

02:21:59.000 There is no replacement for Donald Trump the same way there's no replacement for Charlie Kirk.

02:22:03.000 However, what Tyler's been saying here about the numbers, the math, the door knockers, guess what?

02:22:10.000 You need more of that.

02:22:11.000 Rallies don't win elections.

02:22:13.000 They can gin up support, but they don't win elections.

02:22:16.000 It is the process of putting pieces of paper into the boxes.

02:22:19.000 And by the way, one thing that Charlie and Tyler, and oh, actually, Andrew, you talked about this a lot was, and we know this, that one of the big things that we didn't have in this election, and I certainly hope we get back for 2026, Elon Musk.

02:22:35.000 And Charlie understood the importance of having Elon, the importance of having his impact on the political scene, and was something that he was working very hard to restore because Elon Musk was a huge, huge part of that win in 2024.

02:22:49.000 So we got a couple, we got a lot of emails from people.

02:22:53.000 Cheryl says, could the election results be an immigration backlash?

02:22:58.000 If so, GOP needs to focus its messaging on 2026.

02:23:01.000 I think she's probably getting to the fact that, you know, there's a lot of energy on the left about how we're overzealous and we're overreaching.

02:23:12.000 And to that, I would say, yeah, we always need to make sure that we're messaging.

02:23:16.000 I think this is why Trump kept saying the worst first, the worst first.

02:23:20.000 He was trying to calm the temperature down.

02:23:22.000 And maybe there is more backlash on that.

02:23:24.000 As soon as you close the boat border, it's like people forget that there was an invasion like six months ago.

02:23:28.000 And it bothers me, actually.

02:23:29.000 It bothered me in Trump.1.0 of just how quickly the American voters forget.

02:23:34.000 Because mark my words, if a Democrat ever gets to become president again, those borders are going to fly wide open.

02:23:40.000 Wide open.

02:23:41.000 Why are they so radical on this issue?

02:23:43.000 It's genuinely terrifying to think about.

02:23:45.000 Like, I mean, we can see how they do it in the UK if you want a good model.

02:23:49.000 In the UK, their courts have ruled you cannot deport an Afghan migrant for any reason, including if they're a gang rapist, including if they are a murderer.

02:23:57.000 No reason.

02:23:58.000 They have to remain in the UK. 0.95

02:24:00.000 And, you know, I kind of think the next step for Democrats is probably they will be like, let's find every rapist we can around the world and buy them a free plane ticket into America so that we can buy them a free home to live in.

02:24:10.000 Yeah.

02:24:11.000 That's basically what the left is.

02:24:12.000 Well, by the way, let's just be really clear about things.

02:24:14.000 I mean, the left wants open immigration, unfettered immigration, because they want to continually import voters.

02:24:21.000 And they want to talk about capitalist, Western, Christian, European heritage of the United States.

02:24:31.000 It's just very simple because they hate it.

02:24:33.000 They hate it.

02:24:34.000 This is the gimmicky grins model that we're going to see in New York play out very soon here.

02:24:38.000 This is, by the way, and I'm going to throw this out as well.

02:24:43.000 You want to course correct on this.

02:24:45.000 You want to actually fight back on it.

02:24:48.000 This is why ending the filibuster is so important.

02:24:50.000 Okay.

02:24:51.000 Daniel very dangerous.

02:24:53.000 Sorry.

02:24:54.000 Daniel says, well, tonight's fuel.

02:24:55.000 Because they're going to do it if we don't.

02:24:57.000 Will tonight fuel Trump's argument to nuke the filibuster?

02:25:00.000 Will it apply more pressure?

02:25:01.000 Nuke it and do what?

02:25:02.000 Is what I would say.

02:25:04.000 Seeing tonight's losses, thanks for what you guys do.

02:25:06.000 Wait, what do you?

02:25:07.000 I mean, I didn't even know that was the email, but that's exactly what I think.

02:25:12.000 I think it's exactly one of the things that helps to make the president's argument for him.

02:25:16.000 If people are upset about the economy, if people are upset about the lack of action, well, and guess what?

02:25:21.000 The average person out there, the average voter, the average normie, they don't understand the filibuster, the inside baseball kind of stuff in D.C.

02:25:29.000 They just know Republicans are in charge and they don't understand why things aren't happening.

02:25:33.000 Look, the president led with this message today, knowing that we were heading into a bloodbath a little bit today.

02:25:40.000 I mean, obviously, the president's team have eyeballs and they see polling and they know how things are looking and their sentiment on the ground and the inside scoop from for all the top campaigns.

02:25:54.000 But he led with that message today for a reason, which was that you have people who are not motivated to get off their butts, off their couch to go out and vote.

02:26:04.000 And that's the most basic form of civic engagement.

02:26:08.000 And that's the most basic form of giving a pat on the back to the president and to Congress.

02:26:17.000 And this is a really bad sign, as per what the president was saying today, that next year we are going to lose the House.

02:26:26.000 And we know what that means.

02:26:28.000 They're going to spend all of their time attacking Trump, that they're going to waste all their time trying to, you know, trying to invoke every possible throw everything that they can at President Trump to ruin the last two years of his tenure.

02:26:43.000 And today is the big warning sign for all Republicans that we have to get our stuff together.

02:26:50.000 Now, the benefit is this, is that there is a ton of money that is being raised by the Republican National Committee, by the Trump campaign, and that needs to be deployed pretty dramatically and pretty significantly in some of these places.

02:27:06.000 I would venture to say that there hasn't been enough effort, and this is an RC.

02:27:12.000 The question again is that there hasn't been enough effort in killing multiple birds with one stone, which is that you have key target states with key target races that have to be invested into for years in advance, like four years, six years in advance, not a year or just a few months or even a few weeks before the election.

02:27:31.000 It's interesting, especially on this, on this filibuster question, Tyler, because you seem to come out in favor of it.

02:27:38.000 I'm a little bit more hesitant on Blake's camp, but I will say that JD Vance came out at Ole Miss and he said, we need to stop being afraid to do things just because we think that then Democrats will do it too.

02:27:50.000 He's like, they're already going to do it.

02:27:52.000 Well, hold on.

02:27:53.000 So that's, I'm saying that.

02:27:54.000 That's one argument.

02:27:55.000 That's one argument.

02:27:56.000 And then, and I said this on the show, today the show, Blake, exactly what you're going to say.

02:28:00.000 They just didn't do it, actually.

02:28:03.000 Kirsten Cinema stopped.

02:28:04.000 Joe Manchin.

02:28:05.000 And so they may do it, but also it takes time to do it.

02:28:08.000 And you actually really do think in terms of just time that it takes.

02:28:12.000 And one of the reasons I'm so wary of us doing it now is we'll nuke it to end the shutdown, I guess.

02:28:20.000 And that's it.

02:28:21.000 Like, do we have a Republican Party that's ready to pass?

02:28:24.000 Like, what you really need to pass if you're going to nuke the filibuster, you need to actually change American immigration laws for real.

02:28:32.000 Change it so we're getting fewer legal immigrants. 0.98

02:28:35.000 Remove all of that crap that they use to make it so easy to bring in these fake refugees. 1.00

02:28:42.000 They wave in asylum seekers. 1.00

02:28:44.000 You have to blow all of that up.

02:28:45.000 You have to be ready to do that.

02:28:47.000 You have to be ready to claw away that regulatory morass that the bureaucracy has been relying on to make America the way it is for these past few decades.

02:28:58.000 If you are ready to do that, then by all means, kill the filibuster because you have something you're going to do.

02:29:03.000 But I have this feeling that the only thing they're going to do with a nuked filibuster is reopen the government and refund SNAP.

02:29:11.000 And then they'll futz around for a year, lose the midterms, and then go, oh, well, now there's no filibuster.

02:29:18.000 Democrats very much have an agenda they would like to execute as soon as they're in power.

02:29:26.000 This is the Charlie Kirk Show.

02:29:28.000 We are all about saving babies with pre-born.

02:29:31.000 There are 24,836 kindergartners starting school this month who would not be alive if it hadn't been for what pre-born did in 2019.

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02:29:51.000 When a woman considering abortion sees her baby on that ultrasound and hears that baby's heartbeat, it doubles.

02:29:57.000 Let me repeat.

02:29:58.000 It doubles the chance that she will choose life.

02:30:02.000 $140 gives five mothers a free ultrasound and saves babies.

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02:30:42.000 First votes are in for New York City.

02:30:45.000 So check in with our audience at home.

02:30:48.000 So this is your first look at New York City.

02:30:50.000 New York City, Mom Donnie winning 51% of the vote so far.

02:30:56.000 Cuomo at 39.7% and Sliwa at 8%.

02:31:01.000 So you have an early indicator for some of these early votes that you expect that were there to pre-tabulated going in.

02:31:09.000 So this is like the polls just closed three minutes ago.

02:31:12.000 So these are early tabulations that it does look like Republicans moved away from Sliwa towards Cuomo, which is a good indicator.

02:31:22.000 With right now on the early vote, Cuomo only about 12 points behind.

02:31:28.000 The question is, is that going to be enough with Election Day votes to make up with the tightness in the polls?

02:31:35.000 So again, Staten Island went for Cuomo.

02:31:38.000 So you have Staten Island, which is heavily the heaviest Republicans per capita within New York City.

02:31:47.000 They were split on Sliwa and Cuomo, and Mom Donnie came in dead last with 30,000 votes for Andrew Cuomo, Sliwa, and that's about 40% of the votes are in Staten Island.

02:31:59.000 So you've got a long way to go here tonight.

02:32:03.000 Yeah, so if we look, Manhattan, 52-44, Mom Donnie.

02:32:08.000 The Bronx, 52-38, Mom Donnie over Cuomo.

02:32:12.000 Queens, 49-39, Mom Donnie over Cuomo. 0.99

02:32:16.000 Brooklyn, 60-34, Mom Donnie over Cuomo.

02:32:22.000 And then Staten Island, Cuomo, 51.

02:32:25.000 This is over.

02:32:26.000 They'll call it in a second.

02:32:27.000 Because that's a third of the vote with a 12-point lead, and it's across all boroughs.

02:32:31.000 Yeah.

02:32:32.000 Yeah, you pretty much need to.

02:32:34.000 Mom Donnie, you don't have any consequences.

02:32:38.000 I think Looks like the estimation is that Mom Donnie is going to increase his lead, actually, not shrink his lead, because Republicans are going to vote in person insignificant. 0.93

02:32:50.000 So it's going to split more of the vote from Cuomo.

02:32:53.000 I don't think it'll shift too much from Commonwealth.

02:32:55.000 And here's here's the truth, though.

02:32:56.000 I mean, if you look at this sort of like margins hold, even if all of Curtis Sliwa's votes went for Cuomo, he'd be at basically it.

02:33:05.000 Mom, Donnie was still going to win 51, 48 percent, 51, 47, something like that.

02:33:10.000 Yeah.

02:33:10.000 So.

02:33:10.000 So Mamdani is their choice.

02:33:12.000 And it looks like he's the first choice of about equal parts, male and female voters.

02:33:18.000 Exit polls show that he's getting basically equal.

02:33:23.000 He's going to get his shot.

02:33:24.000 Just got the call.

02:33:25.000 Yeah, he's going to get his chance to run this city.

02:33:28.000 Welcome to Mayor Mamdani, the communist.

02:33:34.000 No, let's just like, we don't need to oversell it.

02:33:37.000 Democrat socialists, fine, whatever he is.

02:33:39.000 I mean, he's quoted the Communist Manifesto.

02:33:42.000 But look at CNN.

02:33:44.000 They haven't recognized the call yet.

02:33:46.000 Oh, it looks like they recognized it at MSNBC here.

02:33:50.000 CBS.

02:33:50.000 Is that CBS?

02:33:51.000 That Mom Danny headquarters here.

02:33:54.000 CBS says it's leaning, but they're not calling it yet.

02:33:58.000 Honestly, the line I would like to use for that we should mainstream is like he's a fanonist, you know, that fanon guy.

02:34:04.000 Like he's a third worldist. 0.86

02:34:06.000 He's a guy who, he like, he sees it as a his political cause is sort of bringing down the West, humiliate, like to lay low and humiliate people that he thinks are the reason the places he came from weren't nice.

02:34:20.000 So he wants to, that's why he's like, wants to tax white people. 0.75

02:34:24.000 He wants to punish white people for the crime of ever being wealthier than the country he came from. 0.51

02:34:29.000 And there are a lot of people who pointed out that this is not too dissimilar from some of Barack Obama's rhetoric in Dreams of My Father, that, you know, his father having been this anti-colonialist in Kenya, and so, you know, really came into this, like, this is why you saw Obama return the bust of Winston Churchill, right?

02:34:54.000 You know, I think it was like his first week in the White House, and you saw a lot of these elements.

02:34:58.000 And he kind of, you know, didn't embrace all of it publicly, but you saw it early on.

02:35:04.000 And then what else did you see?

02:35:06.000 You saw, especially in the second term of Obama, Tyler, you remember this, that that was when we saw the huge expansion of Black Lives Matter.

02:35:14.000 That's when we saw wokeism really took off.

02:35:17.000 And a lot of it goes to this third worldism that Blake is talking about where specifically, and by the way, at the same time, Mondani has a tweet up.

02:35:25.000 It's right there on his account from 2020.

02:35:28.000 I think it was the day the George Floyd video came out on May 29th, where he said, he said, the black and brown alliance will defeat white supremacy.

02:35:39.000 And that's what he believes.

02:35:40.000 That is just fundamentally what he believes.

02:35:43.000 And he believes in taking things that were earned by his target groups and then distributing them to his political coalition.

02:35:54.000 And those are predominantly the Gimme Grins. 0.60

02:35:56.000 Yeah.

02:35:57.000 We're going to get in Cliff here, but we have a lot of a big backlog of dono messages, so I want to get through those.

02:36:02.000 Jenny LS says, missing Charlie like crazy.

02:36:05.000 Thanks to all of you for carrying the torch.

02:36:07.000 Dem areas are typically more costly to live in, so I don't understand the results we're seeing if the economy is the issue.

02:36:15.000 H. Sagad says, I live in Stafford, Virginia.

02:36:19.000 This is giving me anxiety thinking the majority of people here voted for someone who wants to kill our children.

02:36:25.000 Also, he says he's still waiting for a hat from the previous election.

02:36:28.000 Please email us about that, and we'll try to get on that.

02:36:33.000 I'm sure.

02:36:33.000 Email freedom at charliekirk.com.

02:36:36.000 I know it's difficult.

02:36:37.000 We have a big backlog, but especially if it's the last election, we need to get on.

02:36:40.000 It should have been all sorted out.

02:36:41.000 Swimmaroo says Trump and his focus on foreign policy was not on the ballot, but these state and local candidates needed to message why the foreign policy will lead to better times here.

02:36:51.000 They ignored it.

02:36:53.000 I don't think it's the wrong move.

02:36:54.000 I think they should have ignored foreign policy a bit more, personally.

02:36:58.000 Let's see, we've got several more here.

02:37:01.000 It said, I think we got Jenny there.

02:37:07.000 We've got Irop.

02:37:10.000 There's tons of talk about healthcare affordability as a nurse.

02:37:13.000 I'm curious if there's any talk about CMS reimbursement methods and the millions that hospitals are losing.

02:37:19.000 I want to take on CMS reform.

02:37:21.000 I don't know how big, like something that direct would be.

02:37:25.000 Yeah, we had Dr. Oz on today talking about health care.

02:37:29.000 And, you know, it's basically, you go back to the fact that we're dealing with the ramifications, the hangover of COVID subsidies in our healthcare system.

02:37:38.000 And Republicans are like, hey, there was an expiration date on these for a reason.

02:37:41.000 You can't do this forever.

02:37:43.000 It's totally a trap.

02:37:44.000 You just, you get people hooked on things and then you vilify people who ever cut off the dole.

02:37:48.000 And the end result of this is just a bankrupted country.

02:37:50.000 Yeah.

02:37:50.000 And by the way, this is a lesson for any future subsidies that people want to put out there.

02:37:56.000 Even if it's in an emergency situation, you will be politically vilified if you ever stop the money.

02:38:02.000 Because the voters don't care.

02:38:05.000 They don't feel in a personal way the deficit growing.

02:38:11.000 They do feel it, but they don't connect it.

02:38:13.000 They don't feel what happens at the end of it.

02:38:14.000 Yeah, they do feel it, and they will feel it at the end, but they don't connect the dots.

02:38:18.000 And so there's people that are thinking rationally about this that are trying to wave the alarm or ring the alarm bell and wave the flag.

02:38:25.000 But voters in the short term just say, give me my benefits.

02:38:28.000 Give me my money.

02:38:29.000 And so if you give it to them, you can never get it back.

02:38:32.000 Cliff Maloney, we'll get back to the business.

02:38:36.000 Vicki gave $50.

02:38:38.000 All right, Vicki deserves it. 0.67

02:38:39.000 So we need to thank Vicki for that one. 0.74

02:38:41.000 Thank you very much.

02:38:43.000 Hallie gave 10 and says, Dems will be opening, I'm not sure.

02:38:52.000 Slightly oddly worded, but he says they'll be happy.

02:38:55.000 Oh, yeah, I think it's they'll be opening Congress tomorrow.

02:38:57.000 He's saying they'll end the shutdown now that they've got their win.

02:39:00.000 Of course.

02:39:01.000 Yeah, I mean, that's just, in the end, you know, what I like to say is you can't be that mad at your opponent for just doing good political tactics.

02:39:08.000 And the only counter is you have to do good political tactics yourself and try to win.

02:39:13.000 If your opponent makes winning moves, they're just beating you.

02:39:18.000 Politics in the end is just a harsh game.

02:39:20.000 You play to win.

02:39:21.000 Yeah.

02:39:21.000 And Blake, let me jump in on that.

02:39:24.000 Democrats have no leader.

02:39:25.000 They have no plan.

02:39:26.000 But to them, this is a business, right?

02:39:29.000 And so they're able to win these elections because they treat it as a business.

02:39:33.000 And I got to ask you guys this question.

02:39:35.000 Are you guys ready?

02:39:36.000 Are you ready for the spiritual and the messaging battle that we are going to have?

02:39:42.000 Mamdani is going to be the mayor.

02:39:45.000 He is going to be the figurehead for the Democrats.

02:39:49.000 You can compare him to Obama.

02:39:50.000 I think that's a great comparison.

02:39:51.000 But this is a self-avowed socialist who's going to fill the void for a party that has no leader.

02:39:57.000 And as much as I get excited about the fact that we're finally going to be able to have real, honest discussions about free market capitalism versus socialism, it should scare the heck out of us.

02:40:08.000 Because what if they win, right?

02:40:10.000 What if they galvanize people?

02:40:11.000 And I think that's going to be the real test to all of us is to make sure that we can message correctly, that we can expose this type of role of government and thinking that that's what they're supposed to do in our lives.

02:40:22.000 This to me is a direct threat to the idea of a constitutional republic.

02:40:27.000 I mean that peacefully, of course.

02:40:29.000 Peacefully, of course.

02:40:30.000 But we're going to have to win this battle.

02:40:32.000 And it's going to take everybody on our side to push back, but we've got to be ready for this.

02:40:37.000 This is not a joke anymore.

02:40:39.000 America's financial capital is going to be run by a socialist.

02:40:44.000 Are we ready to combat that?

02:40:46.000 That's the question I'd ask the entire audience out there because that's the challenge in front of us.

02:40:51.000 Look, I'm just going to say it.

02:40:52.000 I've said this again.

02:40:54.000 This has been Mamdani's political strategy.

02:40:57.000 It's been his political project from the start.

02:41:00.000 You're going to see open season on white people in New York City. 0.66

02:41:04.000 You are going, if you thought that there was a bad two-tiered system of justice before, you have no idea.

02:41:10.000 You have no idea.

02:41:12.000 You are going to see in New York City more arena Zarutkas.

02:41:16.000 You are going to see more of these violent criminals let out of jail, the Lumpenprol, as Karl Marx would call them. 0.98

02:41:23.000 They will be let out and they will be set upon the middle class in New York City. 0.84

02:41:27.000 And it's just going to happen.

02:41:28.000 It's going to happen over and over.

02:41:31.000 This is a guy who said he wants to defund the police.

02:41:33.000 He says he wants no cash bail.

02:41:35.000 He says he wants no bail at all in many of these circumstances.

02:41:38.000 It is going to be absolutely horrific.

02:41:40.000 And he is going to demonize the affluent in New York City to the point where they will flee the city.

02:41:45.000 The tax base will flee.

02:41:46.000 And that, of course, will have structural problems for the rest of New York City because he always, the communists always do this and Marxists always do this.

02:41:54.000 They claim that they claim that they're for the little guy, but it's always the middle class and the little guy who always ends up getting screwed by them.

02:42:02.000 And you're going to see this horrific cycle play out again and again.

02:42:05.000 But we have been warning of the rise of this insurgent left-wing populism.

02:42:12.000 And Charlie Kirk himself warned about this so much, the rise of Mamdani Nomics, because he said, look, it's resentment.

02:42:20.000 And so it's really simple.

02:42:21.000 Either you get MAGA or you get Mamdani. 0.97

02:42:25.000 And by the way, you can also throw New York City.

02:42:28.000 You can also throw Mangioni in there as well, as we also saw, because if they can't win at the ballot box, they then turn to the bullet box.

02:42:37.000 And they turn to murder.

02:42:40.000 They turn to mayhem.

02:42:41.000 And this is what they do.

02:42:43.000 They do it every single time.

02:42:45.000 And so we're going to see a lot of problems out of New York City coming forward.

02:42:50.000 And I pray for the people of New York right now.

02:42:51.000 I really do pray for the people of New York right now.

02:42:55.000 Yeah, you could say, listen, you get the voters that you deserve or you get the leaders that you deserve, that voters deserve.

02:43:04.000 And that doesn't change the sentiment that you just expressed that I feel bad for New York.

02:43:11.000 They're choosing this, but I do feel bad because they obviously are doing it in ignorance.

02:43:15.000 It's like, forgive them, father.

02:43:17.000 They know not what they do.

02:43:18.000 Yeah.

02:43:18.000 Data Republican has a great tweet up that I wanted to throw to Tyler.

02:43:23.000 Tyler, I want you to hear this, man.

02:43:26.000 She goes, what does this mean for 2026?

02:43:30.000 And Data Republican says, it's a structural problem.

02:43:33.000 The machine which spends billions of dollars to employ tens of thousands of civic engagement coordinators can dominate low turnout elections.

02:43:41.000 Nothing more, nothing less.

02:43:42.000 The GOP has to accept this instead of taking away silly lessons like we lost because we didn't compromise enough.

02:43:50.000 And then she keeps going and says, the problem with Republican donors playing catch up is that it's also structural.

02:43:56.000 If you give, and she's just saying, if you gave me $100 million, I wouldn't know how to spend it, but open society knows how to do that.

02:44:03.000 And then, so I just quote tweeted her and I said, this is why Charlie Kirk's turning point action is essential.

02:44:10.000 He got it.

02:44:11.000 He could see the problem in these low turnout elections.

02:44:14.000 He could see the way forward.

02:44:15.000 He'd already started doing this and putting it together after 2022.

02:44:20.000 And this is going to be the way forward.

02:44:23.000 And it's really just, and Cliff Maloney, you're there as well.

02:44:27.000 We talked about it earlier.

02:44:28.000 We are taking what works because we've seen the Democrats being able to do it.

02:44:32.000 We're working now, but we're playing catch up, aren't we?

02:44:35.000 Yeah, I think that's exactly right.

02:44:36.000 I mean, listen, do I feel as if we're going to be in a good spot two cycles from now?

02:44:41.000 Yeah, I think I said this on your show today, Jack, earlier, that I feel like 2024 was the first time that we really broke the bread and understood we had to fight fire with fire.

02:44:52.000 I think this is a year of learning, right?

02:44:54.000 A year of getting some experience to see, guess what?

02:44:57.000 Democrats are just as serious in off years.

02:45:00.000 I'm not saying that we're not serious, but the resources and where we're spending time and money, we have to understand this is a business for them.

02:45:08.000 And until we take it seriously, look, I just want to make one comment about Jay Jones, okay?

02:45:12.000 Because it really bothers me the more I look at this.

02:45:14.000 Mike, you might have said it earlier.

02:45:15.000 Somebody said, the fact that over a million people voted for this guy, more than a million people voted for someone who said he fantasizes about putting bullets in his political opponent's kids' heads.

02:45:28.000 That is insanity.

02:45:30.000 This is not something that we can take lightly.

02:45:33.000 And it's not like they're getting people to be inspired by Jay Jones.

02:45:37.000 They're just using the current set of rules to win.

02:45:40.000 And it should prove to you even more that these are low-propensity, low-information Democrat voters, but they understand how to turn them out.

02:45:47.000 And we have to understand how to do that on our side.

02:45:50.000 Yeah.

02:45:50.000 And that's the toughest part that exists.

02:45:53.000 And we've been singing this same tune for the last four years, essentially, is until we get serious about this.

02:46:00.000 I mean, look, I mean, this is the stark reality is that these elections, our elections are not fully staffed with the get out the vote bodies on the ground.

02:46:12.000 And the way that we do this is we're talking not weeks in advance.

02:46:18.000 We're talking months and months, if not years in advance, you have to put these bodies on the ground.

02:46:23.000 That's not happening in presidential elections to the level it needs to happen.

02:46:27.000 It's certainly not happening in midterm elections.

02:46:30.000 And that's the fight that we're putting up right now because we're preparing for that here at Turning Point Action in key places across the country.

02:46:38.000 But it's definitely not happening in these off-year election cycles and these special elections.

02:46:44.000 And so, I mean, it's really simple.

02:46:46.000 You have an equation that you have to put together.

02:46:49.000 It exists.

02:46:50.000 The left uses it.

02:46:51.000 We share it with everyone.

02:46:52.000 We've done it in all 50 states, is putting it together and sharing with everyone and saying, this is how many bodies you have to fund.

02:46:59.000 And I can tell everybody here, the eyes, how big the eyes get on people who are running campaigns and donors and major stakeholders, when you tell them how many bodies you need and how much it's going to cost, their eyes get really wide.

02:47:16.000 But the left doesn't even blink at that.

02:47:18.000 They're spending dramatic amounts of money.

02:47:22.000 I mean, we're talking tens of millions of dollars in every key target state, every election that they want to win in order to win.

02:47:30.000 And it's not insurmountable.

02:47:31.000 It really isn't.

02:47:32.000 I mean, look, the reality is in an off-election cycle, you put enough bodies on the ground with the low turnout, and you're usually in the 40s, 30s, 40s, and most of these places.

02:47:44.000 You have enough votes to actually upset the left.

02:47:48.000 The problem is, is they know that we're not going to fund the bodies.

02:47:52.000 And therefore, they don't have to fund as many bodies, even though they're doing way more than we are.

02:47:58.000 And here's the net result.

02:48:00.000 This is also part of the problem: it's a relational problem.

02:48:05.000 Every person that we talk to, we have to build a relationship with.

02:48:08.000 This has to be people that we look for an opportunity ahead of the election to become their friend, become their neighbor, not just have conversations with them about Trump or about anything election related.

02:48:25.000 And don't get me wrong, there's plenty of Trump fans out there, but having conversations with people that are more neighborly, so then we lead into the election.

02:48:34.000 And when you actually show up, they're like, oh, I know who you are.

02:48:37.000 I expect you to be at my doorstep, and I'm not going to reject you straight up.

02:48:41.000 That's what makes the difference.

02:48:43.000 And I can't reiterate that enough.

02:48:45.000 That's what we teach our people here: build some kind of societal social guilt with your neighbors so that when you show up on their doorstep, they feel like they're indebted to talk to you.

02:48:55.000 They feel like they have to talk to you because they're your neighbor and they're going to see you again.

02:48:59.000 You got to throw this up, guys.

02:49:01.000 So, this is a David Hogg tweet with a proposed community note that actually exposes illegal campaigning.

02:49:09.000 Because, I just talked to a volunteer for Zoron who told me that this morning two voters at the polling site were undecided.

02:49:16.000 And she told them Cuomo had been endorsed by Donald Trump.

02:49:18.000 And they said, Well, that decides that.

02:49:21.000 I'm for Zoron. 0.74

02:49:22.000 Thank you.

02:49:22.000 The community note: campaigning at a polling station is illegal under New York state law.

02:49:28.000 But it like it also is revealing of kind of what we're talking about with the machine that you're up against, you know, where you've got actual volunteers campaigning at polling locations against the rules.

02:49:40.000 I will say there is one nice piece of information that's coming in.

02:49:44.000 Texas Proposition 3, the denial of bail for certain violent or sexual offenses has passed.

02:49:51.000 It looks like, look, we got it on the screen there.

02:49:54.000 It's expected to pass handily.

02:49:56.000 So, that's at least one decent win on the board.

02:50:02.000 There is also another big one that I'll share in the chat, but there was a special election that was held in New Hampshire today that went the Republicans' way as well.

02:50:09.000 So, there are some silver linings that exist here.

02:50:14.000 I've got a silver lining.

02:50:15.000 New York is voting down changing their elections to presidential election years, which means we'll get to have more exciting New York mayoral election streams separate from the others.

02:50:25.000 A couple more donations that I want to flag.

02:50:27.000 SoCal Girl gave $20 and says, You guys are doing awesome.

02:50:31.000 I'm sure this is a difficult evening for you without Charlie.

02:50:34.000 Continued prayers for you all.

02:50:36.000 Charlie is still here.

02:50:37.000 He's just not in that chair.

02:50:40.000 Charlie's on assignment with God.

02:50:41.000 He's on an assignment with God, watching over us.

02:50:44.000 That we believe.

02:50:46.000 Ethan Fleckenstein also gave 20 and says, God bless Charlie and his family.

02:50:50.000 I find solace that they will all be reunited in the afterlife someday.

02:50:54.000 And I wish these haters would stop with divisive rhetoric.

02:50:57.000 We need to unite more than ever.

02:51:01.000 Amen.

02:51:01.000 We must all hang together or we will surely hang separately.

02:51:04.000 I believe it was Franklin who said that.

02:51:06.000 Amen.

02:51:07.000 And I always like to remind people: you know, this is just to drive the numbers home.

02:51:11.000 In last year, Donald Trump got 2 million votes about in the state of Virginia.

02:51:18.000 And Jones and Spanberger, every single Democrat running this race is going to get fewer votes than that.

02:51:24.000 Everything is a turnout race.

02:51:26.000 Every single election is a turnout race.

02:51:28.000 We could, you know, if we had, in theory, 100% turnout of every right-leaning person in California, we could win a lot of races there too.

02:51:37.000 We have another big, big deal coming from New Hampshire.

02:51:44.000 Manchester, the largest city area in New Hampshire, swing state, New Hampshire.

02:51:50.000 Republican mayor was re-elected, which is a huge deal.

02:51:54.000 It's the largest metropolitan area, which shows that New Hampshire is totally winnable in 2028, totally winnable in 2026 with the right Senate prowess here.

02:52:06.000 And that's a good sign for Republicans.

02:52:10.000 There was a winner of the Berlin special election.

02:52:13.000 This is Mark Tremblay.

02:52:14.000 I think that's the one you're referencing before in New Hampshire.

02:52:17.000 So it's a state-level race, obviously, but another win there.

02:52:23.000 And then the mayor of Manchester, which again is the biggest city.

02:52:25.000 Yeah, no, this is so to your point, is you know, the strategy for 2026, working on building that red wall, right?

02:52:35.000 So we're thinking down the line here.

02:52:39.000 How do you, you know, we heard so much about the blue wall.

02:52:42.000 Well, how do you build the red wall so that it basically becomes very, very difficult for Democrats to win a national election?

02:52:50.000 Yeah, they could pull off North Carolina.

02:52:51.000 They could pull off Georgia.

02:52:53.000 You always got to think about this.

02:52:54.000 But if you basically, if you win Nevada, Arizona, and New Hampshire, you mess up their lives.

02:53:03.000 You totally mess up their lives.

02:53:05.000 So this is a really important point.

02:53:07.000 Again, an important point for everyone that's sitting at home because we're looking back and we're like, oh, man, this is so depressing.

02:53:12.000 Guys, New York City is a depressing place.

02:53:15.000 Not heading in the right direction, clearly.

02:53:17.000 New Jersey is heading to the right direction, but not quite there yet.

02:53:22.000 And do not forget, like New Jersey, by the way, we didn't even cover this.

02:53:28.000 Mikey, who ran in this election as governor.

02:53:34.000 Cheryl ran against a absolute lunatic of a mayor and Ross Baraka and from the prayer in the primary against and guys, well, there was a moment.

02:53:49.000 There was a moment where the New Jersey Democrats really thought they could make Ross Baraka their candidate.

02:53:56.000 This is the guy who got indicted over the ICE stuff.

02:54:00.000 He was endorsed by CARE.

02:54:02.000 He literally is endorsed by all the radicals.

02:54:05.000 I think what's interesting, too, is that, so there's a question of what do the Democrats now do with the crazy?

02:54:12.000 So do the Democrats double down on crazy because Jay Jones won, saying, I mean, I can't even really think of anything crazier you can say than that.

02:54:24.000 And Mamdani wins in New York City.

02:54:26.000 Mikey Sheryl is just going to add to what you said, by the way, Tyler.

02:54:29.000 She played it very careful with Mamdani.

02:54:31.000 She did not appear with him.

02:54:33.000 She did not endorse him.

02:54:34.000 Barack Obama also did not endorse him.

02:54:36.000 Barack Obama did not appear with him.

02:54:38.000 Schumer didn't endorse him.

02:54:39.000 Schumer didn't endorse him.

02:54:40.000 They avoided him like the play.

02:54:41.000 They avoided him because they're really trying to avoid the crazy.

02:54:45.000 So Mikey Sherrill, knowing that she's going to these suburban pockets of New Jersey, which so much of New Jersey is a commuter, commuter state for New York and Philadelphia and some of these areas, and saying, look, I know that if I embrace this, I'm never going to be elected.

02:55:01.000 And so she eschewed that.

02:55:03.000 But here's the thing now.

02:55:04.000 Are Democrats going to double down on the crazy because crazy just won in Virginia and do New York?

02:55:12.000 Well, and that's the point.

02:55:13.000 The radicals within the Democrat Party view Democrats like Cheryl as light Republicans.

02:55:21.000 Yes.

02:55:22.000 And I mean, Cheryl was, she's not a light Republican.

02:55:26.000 She's a Democrat, but she was endorsed by all the establishment Democrats against.

02:55:33.000 She's a Navy veteran.

02:55:34.000 She is someone who is a helicopter pilot, saved somebody's life, and she's pro-Israel.

02:55:39.000 So, I mean, this is not in lockstep with like the Gen Z.

02:55:43.000 No, the majority of the Democrat Party is anti-Israel at this point.

02:55:48.000 I mean, every poll has shown that.

02:55:50.000 And that's who endorsed the opponent who could have easily won with a little bit more resources in New Jersey.

02:55:57.000 So New Jersey Democrats made the strategic right decision to throw all the resources they possibly could at Cheryl. 0.98

02:56:06.000 But if you're today, if you're tonight, if you're Jack Chitterelli, this race probably would have been in a lot better of a position running against a Baraka. 0.98

02:56:16.000 And again, we don't want to have a Mombani situation happen in New Jersey for sure. 1.00

02:56:20.000 I'm not suggesting that.

02:56:22.000 But what I'm saying is that the Democrat Party is far more radical looking than some of the candidates that they have stuck with.

02:56:32.000 Especially in these midterm and special elections or these off-site.

02:56:38.000 Yeah, I just pulled it up, by the way.

02:56:40.000 She only got 34%. 0.57

02:56:41.000 He got 20%.

02:56:42.000 That's what I'm saying.

02:56:44.000 She did not get a majority of the votes in the election.

02:56:46.000 She won by about 100,000 votes.

02:56:49.000 Yeah, I mean, very easily you could have a situation in New Jersey where you have an absolute lunatic of a radical Democrat running against Jack.

02:56:59.000 That probably gives Jack a better chance.

02:57:01.000 But that's the context of New Jersey right now.

02:57:03.000 You have a pretty consolidated Republican Party right now that are, I mean, look, Jack has run now three times.

02:57:10.000 So in his last big run, last election cycle was really close.

02:57:17.000 And you have a really divided Democrat Party who will bite their, you know, what is it, bite their tongue and suck it up and go vote for the more moderate.

02:57:31.000 But you feel something brewing with the Democrat Party.

02:57:35.000 You feel it.

02:57:36.000 It's there.

02:57:36.000 And that's the problem that we're not capitalizing enough.

02:57:38.000 Momo talked about it actually when he went on with Maria Barteroma that there's a civil war within the Democrat Party.

02:57:44.000 We're going through it on candidly both parties, right?

02:57:47.000 You've got factions on both parties.

02:57:49.000 It's endless because America has a system where in Europe or Israel or Japan, you have lots of different parties that can run.

02:57:57.000 And so in Britain, there's like five or six parties you could pick.

02:58:01.000 In Canada, there's five major parties you could pick.

02:58:03.000 In the U.S., we have two parties.

02:58:05.000 And all the different ideologies you could adopt fight over within those two parties.

02:58:10.000 And it's just, that's the dynamic.

02:58:12.000 Yeah.

02:58:13.000 But just to, I would add one layer to that.

02:58:15.000 Even in the UK and Canada, they have to form a coalition government after the election.

02:58:19.000 So you get the benefit of being able to vote for somebody that's ideologically pure before the election more suited to your specific beliefs.

02:58:28.000 They still have to form a government.

02:58:29.000 Yeah, but it depends.

02:58:30.000 A lot of them are just first past the post.

02:58:32.000 So no, I just, no, I'm talking about once they all get elected in parliament, you have to form a coalition government.

02:58:38.000 But only if you have a minority, like UK, Labor won with 35% of the vote.

02:58:43.000 It has a huge majority.

02:58:44.000 That's fine.

02:58:45.000 So let's get to the police.

02:58:46.000 Well, look at New York real quick before you get into it.

02:58:49.000 New York is actually the Sliwa has actually shrunk a little bit. 0.99

02:58:55.000 And Cuomo has actually gained since votes have been counted.

02:58:59.000 So you're now at the position, and Mom Donnie went back up to 50% just now.

02:59:04.000 But, I mean, this thing is relatively close if this is a two-way race.

02:59:10.000 Yeah, I mean, I think Mom Donnie still takes a lot of time. 0.98

02:59:13.000 Could we just be honest, though, for a second?

02:59:14.000 Like, Cuomo was not a good candidate.

02:59:16.000 Yeah, but Sli-Wa's way under the polling, though. 0.97

02:59:18.000 Yeah.

02:59:19.000 But Sli-Waw is way under the polling.

02:59:20.000 Well, Trump was able to probably that last, Elon and Trump both endorsed Cuomo, but like Cuomo was not a great candidate.

02:59:26.000 Momdani, for all of his flaws, for a moment.

02:59:29.000 Not a great candidate.

02:59:31.000 Cuomo is awful.

02:59:32.000 No, that's what I'm saying.

02:59:34.000 Momdani, for all of his ideological flaws, was a way better candidate.

02:59:39.000 Like a way better, like just from a just pure optics standpoint, how well-spoken he was, what he focused on, tactically, it was way better.

02:59:48.000 And not only that, but here's what they're going to do.

02:59:50.000 And this is what Blake, you know, you've been talking about as well, is that the Momdani model is going to be the new model going forward.

02:59:58.000 And Elon Musk talked about this on Joe Rogan.

03:00:02.000 He said they are going to continue importing voters from the, and Blake, you mentioned third worldism. 0.80

03:00:07.000 So this is a key part of it.

03:00:08.000 You're going to keep importing third worlders into these systems, whether it be city, whether it be a state like a city like New York, a city like Minneapolis, a state like Minnesota. 1.00

03:00:20.000 We've seen the way they've been able to change the demographics there, Dearborn, Michigan.

03:00:24.000 This is going to be the new model going forward.

03:00:27.000 Just import your own voters, and then you can run a candidate like Mamdani, and you can win, and it doesn't matter.

03:00:34.000 So, there's so much the New York race where it's old New York, and you see old New York kind of lining up on one side of the football.

03:00:42.000 And by the way, Trump and Cuomo, right?

03:00:44.000 Like, Trump knew Mario Cuomo.

03:00:46.000 Like, this isn't some new thing.

03:00:48.000 Everybody knows he was a Democrat in those years, and they lined up behind Cuomo.

03:00:52.000 Whereas New New York, which is made up of the Gimme Grants, the Yuckies, the Young Urban Creatives, Great Spot Career Line, they all voted for Mamdaniel and look who won.

03:01:03.000 Look at this: Upper East Side, Cuomo plus 28.

03:01:07.000 Yeah, there you go.

03:01:08.000 There you go.

03:01:09.000 Upper West Side, Mom Danny plus five.

03:01:11.000 But I mean, that's that's a wild then Midwood.

03:01:14.000 Yeah, but the upper side is extremely well for the first vote right there.

03:01:18.000 Midwood.

03:01:19.000 Blake, let's go ahead and get to some of these.

03:01:22.000 They're not Rumble Rants, actually.

03:01:24.000 These are YouTube messages.

03:01:25.000 AZ Bonesaw gave 20.

03:01:27.000 Much love to Charlie, Erica, and Crew.

03:01:31.000 Thank you, Arizona.

03:01:33.000 And let's see, we've got a bunch of spammers. 1.00

03:01:36.000 Ooh, Bearded Viking came here again. 1.00

03:01:39.000 Bearded Viking.

03:01:40.000 I remember that.

03:01:41.000 Oh, that was great having him on before the race.

03:01:44.000 Hey, fellas, just want to say thanks for carrying the torch and keeping the movement alive.

03:01:48.000 Being on the Charlie Kirk show last year was the honor of a lifetime, and I will never forget it.

03:01:53.000 Long live Charlie Kirk.

03:01:55.000 Yeah, that's awesome.

03:01:56.000 Good for him.

03:01:57.000 He's a good dude.

03:01:58.000 Yeah, thank you so much for that.

03:01:59.000 Peter asks, Hello from Northern California.

03:02:03.000 What's the likelihood that Prop 50 passes?

03:02:05.000 Thank you for all you do.

03:02:06.000 Very likely.

03:02:07.000 It is extremely likely.

03:02:08.000 99.99%.

03:02:10.000 Given what we've seen tonight, it would be a huge shock if it doesn't pass.

03:02:14.000 If you want some consolation, the nature of it is when you do a partisan gerrymander, it can win you more seats, but it does make you more vulnerable to a wave the other way, which maybe that won't be next year.

03:02:26.000 But some year we could have that race where Republicans do well.

03:02:30.000 And, you know, it makes it less likely that you'll lose five seats, but more likely that you'll lose 20 seats.

03:02:36.000 Yeah, so that's a good point because you can overcook these maps.

03:02:40.000 Yes, where you basically spread your margins across too many different district races.

03:02:45.000 So there's two different strategies when it comes to maps where you consolidate all of the minority parties' votes into a limited share of districts where, yeah, everybody's kind of locked into their seats.

03:02:56.000 Or you take your advantage and you spread it thinner and thinner and thinner so that you can, in theory, win all the races.

03:03:02.000 But if you have a wave year, that really makes you vulnerable.

03:03:06.000 So be careful what you wish for in California.

03:03:10.000 I mean, Mamdani is not in the 15 to 20 point range that was once predicted.

03:03:18.000 So yeah, so Kalshi had the race for Mondani, and they were going to see what are the odds on how big of a margin he's going to have.

03:03:29.000 And I think it was 25, 25 points was the one that was winning.

03:03:34.000 I know we were checking it earlier today, and I don't know.

03:03:38.000 I'm going to see where Kalchi had it at the end, but yeah, you're right.

03:03:44.000 It's tighter than it's tighter than people realize.

03:03:46.000 I mean, some people say, I mean, this is closer to the most recent poll.

03:03:52.000 Yeah, actually, there's been a ton of, since we mentioned it earlier, there's been a ton of shift on this question now.

03:03:58.000 We checked it earlier today.

03:03:59.000 Now it's at the 6 to 9% is in the lead.

03:04:04.000 Yeah, I mean, that's small.

03:04:06.000 I mean, a Momdani win by 6% with Curtis Liwa taking close to 6 to 8%.

03:04:14.000 I mean, that's not a mandate by any means.

03:04:19.000 You know, I feel bad for Curtis because Curtis has given his heart into the city.

03:04:23.000 He's a good dude, and he's a good dude, and it's not his fault.

03:04:27.000 I mean, he's the Republican candidate for crying out loud.

03:04:29.000 Well, I mean, but that being said, you know, the narrative is going to come out now that Curtis was the spoiler that Cuomo.

03:04:38.000 But it's not.

03:04:39.000 I'm just telling you: when you look at numbers that are this close and you look at it, and if his margin is the margin of victory, then you're there might be there might be some truth to it here because okay, see, so right now, let's just be honest: so, Zoron minus Cuomo and Sliwa together still has a 1.6-point lead.

03:04:57.000 Yeah, but it's tightly small.

03:04:59.000 No, it's really small.

03:05:01.000 But here's why I say that it might actually there, yeah, exactly.

03:05:05.000 Here's why, here's here's why I would say that maybe there's some truth to it because guess what?

03:05:09.000 Sliwa during the debates was taking shots, especially in that first debate, was taking more shots at Cuomo than he was at Mom Donnie.

03:05:17.000 That's right.

03:05:17.000 It was almost like he was more friendly with Mom Donnie.

03:05:19.000 And the second thing I would say, the second thing I would say is that by splitting our attention across three candidates, it basically prevented the presentation of Cuomo as the anti-Mamdani.

03:05:37.000 It was too split up.

03:05:39.000 It didn't give the voters enough time to actually sort of, from a public perception standpoint, put their eggs in the Cuomo basket.

03:05:45.000 I mean, again, Cuomo's a terrible candidate.

03:05:48.000 If they would have fielded somebody halfway decent, then Mamdani doesn't get out of the primaries, first of all. 0.68

03:05:54.000 Second of all, yeah, go ahead, Clip.

03:05:56.000 Yeah, I would just say this.

03:05:57.000 I mean, this is what I see.

03:05:58.000 Listen, I spent a couple years banging my head against the wall helping libertarian candidates and Constitution Party candidates.

03:06:05.000 And, you know, I get all the arguments, right?

03:06:07.000 You know, oh, well, you know, do we really have to support somebody like Cuomo because they're the viable option?

03:06:12.000 And a lot of the third-party candidates say this, but it is a zero-sum game, right?

03:06:17.000 I mean, at the end of the day, it's a bad spot for all of us to be in when we're saying to ourselves, hey, the guy that locked us all down and was one of the worst governors in the history of America is now the alternative to socialism.

03:06:29.000 Yeah, I mean, sure, it would have been a slower trip to the left, but at the end of the day, it's kind of a bad position to be in.

03:06:35.000 And so, I'm not saying we shouldn't have spent any time there, but it kind of was like, you know, you get people frustrated that, like you said, spend all their time with Sliwa, and then you have other people that are frustrated who are trying to spend money and try to help Cuomo.

03:06:48.000 It's like at the end of the day, we got to find better candidates.

03:06:50.000 We got to be able to coalesce.

03:06:52.000 And it's just frustrating.

03:06:54.000 But once again, the mayor of America's financial capital is now a socialist.

03:06:59.000 It's not a mandate.

03:07:00.000 I agree with you, Jack, but he is the mayor.

03:07:03.000 And this is going to be a problem that we're going to have to deal with.

03:07:06.000 Well, and the bigger problem is, I mean, and I'll just say this.

03:07:13.000 Nobody else is really saying this overtly, but I think he's a very Obama-esque figure because his voice, his style, the patterns, the type of candidate that he is.

03:07:26.000 I mean, this is what happened with Obama, again, in my opinion, is that he got in and he surprised everyone with his coolness and ability to work together.

03:07:39.000 And he came off really suave on TV and he won a lot of people over when he won because a lot of people said, remember, if we go, again, going back to that first Obama election, 2008, a lot of people said, oh, this is going to be the worst thing that ever happened to America.

03:07:59.000 America has hired a Muslim. 0.99

03:08:02.000 And then he played it super moderate.

03:08:05.000 And we know on the front face he played it moderate.

03:08:07.000 But behind the scenes, he was.

03:08:10.000 You do see that here.

03:08:11.000 And I'm afraid with Mom Donny, you're going to see the same thing.

03:08:15.000 Where you're going to have A moderate seeming, a moderate seeming guy up front, but in the background, he's running a communist regime.

03:08:26.000 Well, it's going to be his appointments, right?

03:08:29.000 You're going to have to look at the people he appoints.

03:08:31.000 He concerns himself with the people that he sends city money to, which he's going to be, which is what Obama did.

03:08:37.000 He would send tax money to these crazy groups.

03:08:41.000 Meanwhile, he sits up there and he tries to pretend he's this clean-cut, you know, as Joe Biden would say, articulate figure.

03:08:48.000 And then in the background, he's empowering just complete and utter by the way, the Democrats did the same thing with Joe Biden, where they tried to present for as long as they could that Joe Biden was just sort of this normal run-of-the-mill Democrat.

03:09:02.000 He's Uncle Joe, he's old Joe, he's a normal guy.

03:09:05.000 Meanwhile, Mayorkas is invading the country, flooding the borders, running rampant. 1.00

03:09:12.000 Chris Ray and Merrick Garland are destroying our legal process, and they're just running an entire patriot purge of the country, locking up thousands upon thousands of patriots, J Sixers and otherwise, and going after Trump like crazy.

03:09:27.000 And then eventually, you know, and on the foreign policy front, I mean, it's just like starting wars all over the world with Blinken's absolute utter insanity and Jake Sullivan as well.

03:09:37.000 So, I mean, that, but all the while, Joe Biden's like, oh no, things are great.

03:09:42.000 Me and Jill are going to Roba.

03:09:44.000 Like, you know, and one of our followers reminded us, like, Linda Sarsour is the one that was running his campaign.

03:09:51.000 And he's probably right that this is a real Mamdani's campaign. 0.96

03:09:57.000 That's what has been said: is that she was one of the senior people.

03:09:59.000 A lot of people are saying she had chills.

03:10:01.000 Many people are saying Muslim money, too.

03:10:03.000 Care put a lot of money into this.

03:10:04.000 That's what she was saying.

03:10:05.000 Palestine is the new New York City. 0.98

03:10:08.000 So that's.

03:10:09.000 All right.

03:10:09.000 Well, listen, guys, we got to wrap things up.

03:10:12.000 The races did not go our way tonight.

03:10:15.000 But we still have the Arizona.

03:10:17.000 It's coming out in 15 minutes.

03:10:20.000 Okay.

03:10:21.000 Do you want to hang around for 15?

03:10:23.000 Will they count them quickly?

03:10:25.000 The first drop will be.

03:10:27.000 It is Maricopa County.

03:10:28.000 It is.

03:10:29.000 Got to watch it.

03:10:30.000 And 15.

03:10:30.000 And I think Minnesota is supposed to be dropping at 15, too.

03:10:33.000 Oh, Minnesota just dropped.

03:10:34.000 Oh, what do we got?

03:10:35.000 What do we got?

03:10:35.000 Minnesota just dropped.

03:10:37.000 And by the way, if you're going to be able to get away with Rumble Rants, throw it in.

03:10:40.000 What do you got?

03:10:41.000 Remember, that's an instant runoff election, too.

03:10:43.000 This is a tight race already.

03:10:45.000 And 5% of the vote.

03:10:47.000 It's Jacob Frey by a hair.

03:10:51.000 Omar.

03:10:53.000 Fateh.

03:10:54.000 Fate.

03:10:55.000 Fateh.

03:10:57.000 Just behind by a few hundred votes.

03:11:00.000 So that just hit.

03:11:02.000 So Minneapolis, the mayoral election just hit.

03:11:07.000 So you have that is what's left.

03:11:09.000 And New York City is wrapping up.

03:11:12.000 You have Minneapolis.

03:11:14.000 And then we mentioned we have Arizona and then California is coming here in just a few minutes.

03:11:19.000 So what are your initial thoughts here?

03:11:27.000 I actually have to make a quick phone call.

03:11:29.000 If Omar, if Omar hits, are we off?

03:11:31.000 No, no, we're still going.

03:11:33.000 I just have to make it.

03:11:33.000 But everyone's tired.

03:11:34.000 They're all bailing.

03:11:35.000 You want to wait?

03:11:36.000 You're stuck with me.

03:11:38.000 You're stuck in midterm nightmare Thunderdome.

03:11:42.000 What if Omar wins?

03:11:44.000 Blake.

03:11:46.000 I don't know.

03:11:47.000 Minneapolis will continue to produce content for our show.

03:11:52.000 I mean, which is its main purpose, I feel.

03:11:56.000 The main purpose is to produce content and for people to go, like, wow, what changed in Minneapolis, which used to be this incredible city?

03:12:03.000 People just kind of like sit there with like a bovine look on their face.

03:12:06.000 These initial results are, I think, a little bit surprising.

03:12:09.000 Obviously, we don't know what part of the city they're coming from because I don't think we have that detail.

03:12:15.000 On here.

03:12:17.000 I don't think we have detailed results of where those are coming from.

03:12:21.000 But again, just as a reminder, you have this Democratic party, state senator, Omar Fateh, who made news because of his really radical positions.

03:12:33.000 What made the news is they rigged the endorsement of the city Democrats, and it seems to have just been straight up cheating.

03:12:41.000 They were not public, like they had to revoke it.

03:12:44.000 It was clear misconduct on the part of the party, but who knows how much attention that got.

03:12:50.000 And the current, the current mayor received backlash.

03:12:55.000 Remember, Jacob Fry was the guy who talked about defunding the police originally coming in, right?

03:13:02.000 And then he got in and he went super reverse course on a lot of things, obviously, because the city was heading in a bad direction and then lost a lot of the support of the radical Democrats that run the city of Minneapolis.

03:13:19.000 So that is coming up.

03:13:22.000 So if you got that, I think we had the election results up right now.

03:13:27.000 We are at 2,600 votes for Fry and 2,300 votes for Fatteh.

03:13:33.000 We're waiting on, we're about 15 minutes away from Arizona results, where we have kind of a couple of important elections just setting the standards here that's coming up here.

03:13:45.000 So Blake, tell me some of your thoughts on what the impact is going to look like with Mom Donnie.

03:13:53.000 Oh, I mean, there's so many things that can happen.

03:13:56.000 I feel like what I constantly hear is people predicting this huge explosion of crime.

03:14:01.000 I will be blunt.

03:14:02.000 New York, for whatever reason, crime doesn't go up that much in New York.

03:14:06.000 They can have urban decay go up a lot, which is not the same as crime, but affects people in a similar way.

03:14:13.000 So if Mamdani causes there to be a lot more bums on the subway, maybe more bums on the street, more visible signs of blight in the city, that will affect people, even if they're not really being stabbed or if there's not being more murders, it can still have a similar effect.

03:14:32.000 I just say that to set people up because people predicted that de Blasio would see a huge explosion of crime.

03:14:38.000 And bluntly, it didn't really happen, at least not in terms of the really bad, violent crimes.

03:14:43.000 You just saw, again, that decay that happens that people see and they don't like it.

03:14:47.000 And that's a lot like crime.

03:14:49.000 But we can't necessarily just say, oh, tons of people will be stabbed.

03:14:52.000 I do think he has a lot of other ways to cause real harm that could get attention and create, I guess I'll be honest, a political opportunity for us.

03:15:01.000 As an example, I believe he's promised to basically blow up the specialized high schools they have in New York.

03:15:07.000 That's always a recurring thing.

03:15:09.000 The radical left wants to get rid of the merit-based admissions to Stuyvesant Bronx High School of Science.

03:15:16.000 That's a big issue for Asian voters in New York.

03:15:18.000 It's a big issue for Jewish families in New York who want their kids to be able to go to these public high schools and have them be merit-based.

03:15:25.000 He wants to replace that.

03:15:27.000 A lot of radicals want to replace that with race-based admissions.

03:15:30.000 They want to replace it with non-merit-based admissions.

03:15:34.000 And that could get a lot of attention if he does that.

03:15:37.000 He can really mess with the housing market and either make it so they can't build anything anymore or so that investment flees the city.

03:15:46.000 He can cause a lot of economic damage to New York City.

03:15:50.000 And if he's able to do that really quickly, that will be something we can point towards as an example.

03:15:55.000 The downside is a lot of really disastrous economic policies do take a little while to play out.

03:16:01.000 So we might only really see the full damage he's able to wreak in 27, 28, and beyond, as opposed to getting it within a year.

03:16:10.000 So interesting things as we wrap up here.

03:16:13.000 Producer Andrew is saying, now, now, host Andrew is saying that we need, we got to get everybody, we got to get the team out of here.

03:16:19.000 Thank you to everybody who spent the long hours today on, of course, a superb memorial of Charlie.

03:16:28.000 Of course, we missed him here tonight.

03:16:30.000 A couple of interesting points before we head out.

03:16:33.000 It looks like that New Jersey is going to break, well, easily 3 million votes.

03:16:38.000 So that we had talked about that.

03:16:40.000 You know, that window between 3 and 3.5 million votes that Cliff had mentioned, it looks like it's going to be closer to 3 than 3.5.

03:16:48.000 And that's part of the story of Jack not being able to overcome the difference.

03:16:53.000 Right now, he's down.

03:16:55.000 It looks like about 300,000 votes in New Jersey, which is where he started at the day today.

03:17:02.000 The New York City mayoral election is closer than people thought, but it looks like Mamdani's got this pretty handily.

03:17:11.000 The Minneapolis race has just hit.

03:17:14.000 And so not very many votes have been cast or been tabulated, but we'll keep a close eye on that and cover some of that tomorrow.

03:17:22.000 And then, of course, the next few minutes, we'll have Arizona results that come through.

03:17:25.000 And we'll talk a lot about that tomorrow.

03:17:27.000 Hopefully, we'll have some positive things to talk about with some silver linings as we go.

03:17:32.000 So should we go around and just kind of give final thoughts here before we head out?

03:17:37.000 Yeah, and I'll just kind of bring it back to this.

03:17:41.000 You know, Charlie Kirk couldn't vote today, and Charlie Kirk will never vote again.

03:17:46.000 And it is your job out there to not only carry on that legacy, but explain why.

03:17:54.000 Explain why Charlie Kirk will no longer be voting and also explain why.

03:17:59.000 And you've got another data point because 1.3 million people in Virginia just voted for a man who said that he would be willing to kill Republican children.

03:18:11.000 So the violence, I don't want to hear any more of this.

03:18:14.000 Oh, it's both sides nonsense because it's not.

03:18:17.000 Like we now have verifiable quantitative data that can show us the truth.

03:18:21.000 But I do also know that Charlie would not be down in the dumps.

03:18:25.000 I know that Charlie would be looking at this and saying, what can we learn?

03:18:28.000 What are the best lessons that we can take away from this?

03:18:32.000 Building the infrastructure and expanding that obviously is the number one because only infrastructure can overcome the gap when you don't have Donald Trump on the ballot.

03:18:42.000 Republicans don't win in these states when you don't have Trump.

03:18:46.000 Trump has that magic X factor that can get those crossover voters in these Rust Belt states that your typical Republicans just don't have.

03:18:56.000 So that's something that, of course, we know that Charlie would be getting into, that he'd be breaking down furiously if he were here right now.

03:19:04.000 And I'm sure, by the way, in some place where he's at, that's exactly what he's doing right now tonight.

03:19:10.000 But he would also encourage everyone to keep the faith and keep on running the race.

03:19:15.000 And that's exactly what we're going to do.

03:19:17.000 That's what I'm going to do.

03:19:18.000 And that's why we did the live stream tonight because we know that's exactly what Charlie would want us to do.

03:19:23.000 That's right.

03:19:24.000 Yeah, my final thoughts are keep the faith.

03:19:26.000 I think that's a good place to end this.

03:19:28.000 Keep the faith.

03:19:29.000 Listen, this is an off-year election.

03:19:30.000 We've proven as a movement, as a political party, this happened.

03:19:34.000 You know, listen, we were sitting here with Charlie when Wisconsin came back, and it was not positive, right?

03:19:39.000 So keep the faith because off-year elections, we haven't cracked this code yet.

03:19:43.000 By the way, these are blue states.

03:19:45.000 Yeah, I know Pennsylvania.

03:19:47.000 Pennsylvania looks terrible too, to be honest.

03:19:49.000 It's worse than Pennsylvania.

03:19:50.000 So we have not cracked the code in the Trump era of an off-year election.

03:19:54.000 You got to hope that presidentials, midterms are going to be better.

03:19:57.000 But listen, we've got a lot of work to do.

03:19:59.000 There's no doubt about it, but we got to keep the faith.

03:20:00.000 It's worth fighting for.

03:20:01.000 It's for our kids.

03:20:02.000 All the above.

03:20:03.000 Blake, final thoughts?

03:20:05.000 First thing I'm going to flag because they matter the most.

03:20:07.000 JM Denton, I recognize that name.

03:20:09.000 He's been a great supporter of ours.

03:20:11.000 He gave $200 and says, Mamdani winning signals the hour being late.

03:20:18.000 I hope that GOP closes ranks.

03:20:20.000 Thank you for your work, TPUSA.

03:20:23.000 And thank you for your support.

03:20:26.000 We do all this with the help of all of you who enable it.

03:20:30.000 And we do it for you because we care about this country.

03:20:35.000 We care about all of you.

03:20:37.000 And we know nights like this are tough because you do look ahead and you're like, oh, man, is this a sign for the future?

03:20:45.000 Is it all downhill from here?

03:20:47.000 And the truth is, just the fight always goes on.

03:20:49.000 The fight always continues.

03:20:50.000 It's never as good as it looks.

03:20:52.000 It's never as bad as it looks.

03:20:54.000 Donald Trump himself has a great line about that in The Art of the Deal, where he says, I try not to get caught up in any particular moment because everything can change very suddenly.

03:21:03.000 Something like that.

03:21:04.000 And that's how it is.

03:21:06.000 Things are always changing.

03:21:08.000 Things are always in turmoil.

03:21:09.000 Things are always in tumult.

03:21:11.000 And that's why it is our moral duty to keep fighting because you have to be ready for when the moment comes where there's the opportunity to turn things around or when you need to stand in the breach to stop something from getting really bad.

03:21:24.000 Charlie said, and he was quoting Dennis Prager in this, where he said, I don't fight because I know I'm going to win.

03:21:28.000 I fight because it's the right thing to do.

03:21:30.000 Amen.

03:21:31.000 So that's what we do.

03:21:32.000 We fight because we know it's the right thing to do.

03:21:34.000 Thank you guys for joining us on this election stream.

03:21:37.000 Thank you to Cliff Maloney and Rich Bears who joined us tonight.

03:21:41.000 We'll see you tomorrow on our daily shows right here.

03:21:46.000 We'll make sense of the insane.

03:21:49.000 See you next time.

The Charlie Kirk Show - November 05, 2025

JUDGMENT DAY 2025: The Election Results Stream

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