The Charlie Kirk Show - October 22, 2024


Liz Cheney: Kamala’s Silent Killer?


Episode Stats


Length

36 minutes

Words per minute

178.25967

Word count

6,453

Sentence count

471

Harmful content

Misogyny

22

sentences flagged

Hate speech

6

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

Mark Halpern and Andrew Copilot join us to break down the early voting numbers in the Arizona primary and give us the inside scoop on what s going on with early voting and why we should all get out and vote in the primary. Plus, we have a special guest on the show to talk about the upcoming University of Georgia primary and what to look out for in the upcoming mid-term elections. Click here to listen to the full episode and share it with your friends! Tweet me and let us know what you thought of this episode! Timestamps: 4:00 - What's going on in Arizona? 6:30 - Who's winning in Arizona and why it's important 7:00 What s happening in Georgia 8:40 - What to watch for in Tuesday's primary election 9:15 - What s going to happen in the midterms 11:30 Can we turn out the vote in Arizona 13:00- Is this a race we can win in 2020? 14:15 15:20 - Can we win in Georgia? 16:40 17:30- Is Arizona a red state or a blue state 18:20 19:10 - Is there any chance we can turn out our base? 21:15- What's the real chance in Arizona in 2020 22:20- What are we going to do in 2020 and what are we need to do to win in November 23: What s our best chance? 26:00 -- Is Arizona going to turn out in the vote? 27:00: What's our best bet? 29:30 -- What s the best thing we can we do? 30:40 -- What can we learn from Arizona? -- Is there a chance we re in a good spot? 35:10 -- What do we have going forward? 31:00-- Is Arizona in the best chance to win the primary 36:30-- Is this country going to be better than the other side? 32: Is Arizona better than North Carolina or California? 33:15 -- Is it better than Florida? 34:10 37: What do you think we re going to have a chance in 2020 in 2020?? 39:40-- What are you going to vote for? 45:30 | What are the chances?

Transcript

Transcripts from "The Charlie Kirk Show" are sourced from the Knowledge Fight Interactive Search Tool. Explore them interactively here.
Misogyny classifications generated with MilaNLProc/bert-base-uncased-ear-misogyny .
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
00:00:00.000 Hey everybody, today on the Charlie Kirk Show, we have Mark Halpern who breaks down the state of the race, producer Andrew Copilot, so I can save my voice as we are about to go to the University of Georgia for more fun.
00:00:09.000 Email us as always, freedom at charliekirk.com, subscribe to our podcast, open up your podcast application, type in Charlie Kirk Show, buckle up everybody, here we go.
00:00:16.000 Charlie, what you've done is incredible here.
00:00:18.000 Maybe Charlie Kirk is on the college campus.
00:00:20.000 I want you to know we are lucky to have Charlie Kirk.
00:00:24.000 Charlie Kirk's running the White House, folks.
00:00:27.000 I want to thank Charlie.
00:00:28.000 He's an incredible guy.
00:00:29.000 His spirit, his love of this country, he's done an amazing job building one of the most powerful youth organizations ever created, Turning Point USA. We will not embrace the ideas that have destroyed countries, destroyed lives, and we are going to fight for freedom on campuses across the country.
00:00:46.000 That's why we are here.
00:00:49.000 Noble Gold Investments is the official gold sponsor of The Charlie Kirk Show, a company that specializes in gold IRAs and physical delivery of precious metals.
00:01:00.000 Learn how you can protect your wealth with Noble Gold Investments at noblegoldinvestments.com.
00:01:06.000 That is noblegoldinvestments.com.
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00:01:14.000 I have my co-pilot, producer Andrew, here for many reasons.
00:01:18.000 The most importantly, I can't lose my voice again, Andrew.
00:01:21.000 You're starting to sound a little questionable, Charlie.
00:01:24.000 Yeah, it happens when you talk eight hours a day.
00:01:27.000 It's true.
00:01:28.000 I was with him all day yesterday and it was basically non-stop talking.
00:01:32.000 And much of it cannot be avoided, so unfortunately.
00:01:35.000 Yeah, I have to do a better job of conserving my voice when I don't need to talk, but helpful to have a co-pilot today.
00:01:41.000 I just want to remind everybody to go vote.
00:01:43.000 Andrew, the early voting stories are coming in.
00:01:45.000 They're amazing.
00:01:45.000 Well, the early voting story across the country, we should say that.
00:01:49.000 I mean, from Georgia to Pennsylvania to even Arizona, Nevada, a lot of people are saying that the voting, the betting sites, the odds are going in Trump's favor because conservatives are jumping in.
00:02:03.000 They're catching the vibe, whatever.
00:02:05.000 No, they're going up because of early voting trends.
00:02:07.000 That's actually what's moving the betting markets again.
00:02:10.000 Now, we're the first ones to tell you we don't care about the polls.
00:02:13.000 We don't care about the betting markets.
00:02:14.000 We observe them.
00:02:16.000 We watch them.
00:02:16.000 We keep our eyes on them.
00:02:17.000 We care about ballots in the box.
00:02:19.000 At the end of the day, and that's actually what's most promising about a state like Arizona, California.
00:02:25.000 Charlie, you released a tweet.
00:02:27.000 I recommend everybody go check out Charlie's X account right now.
00:02:29.000 There was a really important tweet that you authored yesterday about updates in Arizona.
00:02:35.000 So if I could summarize it for the audience, it basically said that at this exact point in 2020, we were down in early voting to the Democrats statewide by 10%, 10.4%.
00:02:49.000 This year, we are up 7.6%.
00:02:52.000 That is a net shift of 18 points in State 48.
00:02:57.000 So that's a huge, huge testament to the ground game operation that we've built.
00:03:02.000 Now, that...
00:03:03.000 Caveat, right?
00:03:04.000 That doesn't mean we're going to win the state.
00:03:06.000 We don't know how the Indies are going to break. 1.00
00:03:08.000 So this is Republican versus Democrat, and about a third of the state is independent.
00:03:12.000 And if you are at least above water with Indies, you're probably going to be okay. 1.00
00:03:16.000 If you turn out your base.
00:03:17.000 So people are asking, what are the Indies going to break?
00:03:20.000 Well, historically, in Arizona, they break about 50-50, if not slightly in the Republicans' favor.
00:03:27.000 That doesn't mean that's going to happen this time.
00:03:29.000 So we can't...
00:03:31.000 Count any of our chickens, right?
00:03:32.000 So, all I would say is, this is a very, very promising start, especially when you compare it to 2020.
00:03:40.000 And remind the audience, we lost by, or we lost, we fell short about $10,000.
00:03:46.000 Okay?
00:03:46.000 So...
00:03:47.000 We're in a good spot.
00:03:48.000 At least in Arizona, we know for sure we're in a good spot.
00:03:51.000 Really couldn't ask for anything more, Charlie.
00:03:53.000 Yeah, and it's interesting.
00:03:55.000 It seems as if early voting were up on average about 20 to 25 points state by state versus 2020.
00:04:02.000 It's an interesting Georgia, North Carolina, that seems to be the moving average.
00:04:07.000 Yeah, well, and if you look at Georgia, for example, we're getting updates regularly from Georgia, a state we're in right now, and it looks like the rurals are just coming out of the woodwork.
00:04:18.000 I mean, these people are crawling over glass to get to the ballot box early.
00:04:23.000 And what's also really promising, Charlie, in the states where we have I think?
00:04:47.000 Did that person vote zero times out of last four or one out of four?
00:04:51.000 So those would be what we call our low prop voters, low prop propensity voters, and they are coming out of the woodwork.
00:04:58.000 Our messaging, our ground game is working.
00:05:01.000 Yeah, and we have a picture here we can throw up on screen.
00:05:03.000 I don't know if we can do it in time.
00:05:04.000 This is one individual from our chase the vote strategy where this guy is a guy by the name of Reno, and it is his first time voting since John McCain.
00:05:14.000 And so that is a net new vote for Donald Trump.
00:05:17.000 He has not voted for 16 years.
00:05:20.000 Just to put up on screen, that's Reno.
00:05:21.000 We have thousands of these voters that Turning Point Action is bringing into the fold.
00:05:25.000 So this is not just, oh, we're bringing out voters that are...
00:05:28.000 No, this is the lowest of all low propensity, right?
00:05:32.000 This is a person that would not have voted if it was not for Turning Point Action.
00:05:36.000 Now, it's very interesting.
00:05:37.000 Where a candidate spends his or her time is the most telling and the most valuable thing.
00:05:44.000 So, for example, today, President Donald Trump on Tuesday, October 22nd, is doing a rally in North Carolina.
00:05:51.000 Tomorrow, actually, we're hosting President Donald Trump in Georgia.
00:05:55.000 We're going to have a big event with Donald Trump in Georgia.
00:05:57.000 We're hosting Donald Trump on Wednesday in Vegas, two Trump events this week that we are hosting.
00:06:03.000 What is Kamala Harris doing? 1.00
00:06:05.000 Kamala Harris is traveling the country with Liz Cheney.
00:06:11.000 And so why would Kamala Harris be traveling the country with Liz Cheney? 0.99
00:06:15.000 It's obvious, and we've seen this through multiple different advertisements, multiple different messaging strategies.
00:06:21.000 The data is screaming at her that she is losing Center to center-right Republicans so significantly that there are not enough left-wing activist types to make up the gap.
00:06:35.000 She's also taking her base for granted, which I think is a very dangerous thing, Kamala.
00:06:40.000 You don't know your base.
00:06:41.000 We've been on the ground.
00:06:42.000 They are not nearly in favor of you like you think they are.
00:06:46.000 I think Democrats are going to have serious base decay, two or three points.
00:06:51.000 I think this is a miscalculation in a lot of different ways.
00:06:55.000 Traveling the country with Liz Cheney is what a Democrat consultant thinks that Republican voters want, when in reality, Liz Cheney is deeply unpopular both to any conservative that might be somewhat open-minded to voting for Kamala, but secondly, Liz Cheney is a great way to turn off Democrat base voters. 0.99
00:07:22.000 So Kamala Harris is parading around someone who literally that family was called a war crime family. 0.92
00:07:28.000 In just a couple years ago, there was a movie by the name of Vice.
00:07:32.000 Do you remember this movie?
00:07:34.000 It was a movie called Vice, where the entire movie is how Dick Cheney is a war criminal.
00:07:39.000 It was actually very well done.
00:07:41.000 That was like five or six years ago, how the media viewed the Cheney family.
00:07:46.000 And now she's going on a tour with Liz Cheney to try and put country over party. 0.98
00:07:55.000 First of all, it's great news that she's doing this, because this means that she knows that she cannot win without people on our side.
00:08:03.000 There's three points.
00:08:04.000 The second point is that I think this is going to result in Democrat-based decay.
00:08:07.000 The third point, everybody, is if we turn out, we're going to get very close to victory.
00:08:12.000 Okay, let's go to here.
00:08:14.000 Let's play cut 33.
00:08:16.000 Surprised.
00:08:17.000 Are you surprised that you're out here campaigning for a Democrat, campaigning for Kamala Harris against the party that you've been a part of your entire life?
00:08:26.000 You know, what I would say, first of all, is...
00:08:31.000 We all know, everyone who watched January 6th knows, you know, what Donald Trump is willing to do.
00:08:39.000 He lost the election.
00:08:41.000 He tried to overturn it and seize power.
00:08:44.000 And then he sat in his dining room and he watched the attack on television.
00:08:50.000 First of all, anyone who finds Liz Cheney persuasive is not our type of voter.
00:08:57.000 Do you have a truth social you want to mention here, Andrew?
00:08:59.000 Well, yeah, I mean, it ties into some of the other points you were making.
00:09:02.000 But yeah, I mean, first of all, to Liz Cheney point, Charlie, the people of Wyoming don't find Liz Cheney to be very persuasive.
00:09:11.000 That's certainly true.
00:09:12.000 She lost, I mean, a landslide to Harriet Hageman.
00:09:15.000 So, yeah, yesterday we were at Georgia State.
00:09:19.000 We were also at UNC in Raleigh.
00:09:21.000 But I got into a conversation with a bunch of Muslim young men that were extraordinarily upset with Kamala Harris.
00:09:29.000 And that actually surprised me because they admitted that their one issue is Israel.
00:09:33.000 But they would rather take Trump than Kamala.
00:09:36.000 And Trump put out a social post about this on Truth.
00:09:40.000 Arab voters are very upset with comrade Kamala Harris, the worst vice president in the history.
00:09:45.000 Of the United States and a low IQ individual is campaigning with dumb as a rock war hawk Liz Cheney, who like her father, the man that pushed Bush to ridiculously go into war in the Middle East, and it goes on.
00:09:57.000 But they were in agreement with this.
00:09:59.000 They said Liz Cheney and Kamala Harris are going to kill more Arabs.
00:10:03.000 They felt convicted of that.
00:10:07.000 Yeah, again, I think Kamala Harris is flirting with base decay, the likes of which she doesn't quite realize. 1.00
00:10:12.000 The last couple of years have been very tough on people economically.
00:10:17.000 A lot of good folks have gotten into horrible debt just to survive.
00:10:20.000 Some of you are paying 20 to 30 percent on your credit card debt and drowning in those monthly bills.
00:10:25.000 If you own your own home, did you know that refinancing that home can help get you help right now?
00:10:31.000 I can hear it now.
00:10:31.000 But Charlie, I have a three and a half percent rate and I can't refi.
00:10:36.000 Don't be a slave to the right.
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00:11:06.000 Let's play more tape here, as I'm here with producer Andrew.
00:11:09.000 Let's play cut 35.
00:11:12.000 So, I think that we are facing a choice in this election.
00:11:17.000 It's not about party.
00:11:19.000 It's about right and wrong.
00:11:21.000 And I certainly have many Republicans who will say to me, I can't be public.
00:11:27.000 They do worry about a whole range of things, including violence, but they'll do the right thing.
00:11:32.000 And I would just remind people, If you're at all concerned, you can vote your conscience and not ever have to say a word to anybody.
00:11:41.000 And there will be millions of Republicans who do that on November 5th by President Harris.
00:11:48.000 Coward.
00:11:50.000 So this is one of their big bets, everybody, just so we're clear.
00:11:53.000 The Kamala Harris campaign is betting on the quiet anti-Trump voter, that there are millions of anti-Trump Republicans embedded in very deep red areas.
00:12:03.000 And it's going to be just enough to tilt it.
00:12:06.000 So I want to go back to this idea of base decay.
00:12:08.000 What she's doing is underestimating how deeply unpopular the Warhawks are, these warmongers, Liz Cheney, Dick Cheney, John Bolton.
00:12:17.000 There was 200 McCain, Romney, ex-staffers or whatever.
00:12:22.000 So she's courting the center right and the center left, the middle. 1.00
00:12:28.000 And meanwhile, I'm sitting at a college campus and these Muslim kids that are voting for Trump.
00:12:34.000 I mean, they were rocking MAGA hats.
00:12:36.000 They took a picture with Charlie.
00:12:37.000 And a lot of young black men.
00:12:39.000 Yeah, absolutely.
00:12:41.000 By the way, we were in downtown Atlanta.
00:12:42.000 No, there was like four white people.
00:12:45.000 And I was one of them.
00:12:47.000 We were in downtown Atlanta.
00:12:49.000 Yeah, no, absolutely.
00:12:50.000 But to see a red in that scene was pretty powerful. 0.62
00:12:55.000 And what I will say is, you know, I said, is all of your family voting for Trump as well?
00:13:00.000 And they said, well, about half and half.
00:13:02.000 And I said, okay, what are the other half doing? 0.93
00:13:04.000 And they said that they are now working on, in the mosques, trying to get Jill Stein.
00:13:09.000 And apparently this is like nationwide.
00:13:11.000 So from Minnesota, Michigan, they're nationwide working to get Jill Stein up over 5%.
00:13:17.000 That's their new mission in life because they want to get her a place on the debate stage. 1.00
00:13:22.000 And so that's a huge development because apparently this is happening nationwide.
00:13:30.000 Now I want you to throw up image 40.
00:13:32.000 This is a general election poll among Arab Americans.
00:13:37.000 Trump, 45.
00:13:39.000 Harris, 43.
00:13:41.000 And Stein, 4.
00:13:43.000 So that Stein, 4, is nowhere.
00:13:45.000 This is how you win Michigan.
00:13:46.000 This is how you win Michigan.
00:13:47.000 This is how you make them real nervous about a lot of races in Minnesota.
00:13:51.000 This is, I mean, I think...
00:13:54.000 You know, it's going to be interesting to see how this plays out.
00:13:56.000 But essentially, when Trump went on, and they mentioned this to me, when Trump went on the stage with Caitlin Collins, this is apparently a clip that they play still in their communities.
00:14:06.000 And they asked him about Ukraine.
00:14:07.000 They go, what's your, what are you going to, are you going to bomb Russia?
00:14:10.000 You know, what are you going to do?
00:14:11.000 And Trump just says, I want peace.
00:14:13.000 I want an end of the killing and destruction.
00:14:16.000 And to them, they know Trump has been friends with BBNet and Yahoo for a long time, but they still say, we think Trump is going to bring peace, more peace than destruction.
00:14:26.000 And so I think Trump has played this role.
00:14:29.000 I think you're absolutely right.
00:14:31.000 Base decay is going to be a real problem for her. 1.00
00:14:33.000 And here's the other thing.
00:14:34.000 I think trying to get conservatives to peel away and Republicans, even though there has been a strong Never Trump faction, I think that is baked into the cake.
00:14:43.000 I think we saw it in 2016.
00:14:45.000 I think we saw it in 2020.
00:14:46.000 And all of those things combined, we still only saw...
00:14:50.000 Trump fought 42,000 ballots short in three states.
00:14:54.000 42,000 ballots in three states.
00:14:55.000 We have way more tailwinds behind us in this election than in that. 0.69
00:15:00.000 And so I just think she's barking up the wrong tree.
00:15:03.000 I think it's a strategic misadventure.
00:15:06.000 Let's go deeper into this.
00:15:08.000 The country has become profoundly more center-right and is rejecting wokeism or leftism or whatever you want to call it.
00:15:14.000 Mm-hmm.
00:15:15.000 And the way that Kamala receives that data is that some genius says, well, let's go do a tour with Liz Cheney. 1.00
00:15:21.000 As if Liz Cheney is a way to keep your base and also broaden yourself to Republicans. 1.00
00:15:29.000 Here's Kamala Harris invoking World War II and Pearl Harbor in order to justify the implementation of Liz Cheney's warmongering goals. 1.00
00:15:38.000 Playcut 39.
00:15:39.000 This concept of isolation We were once there as a nation, and then Pearl Harbor happened.
00:15:47.000 Then when we got attacked, Pearl Harbor, we jumped in.
00:15:52.000 And it is because America jumped in that we were ultimately able to win that war.
00:16:00.000 And it should be a constant reminder to us.
00:16:03.000 We have to remember history.
00:16:06.000 That isolationism, which is exactly what Donald Trump is pushing, pull out of NATO, abandon our friends.
00:16:15.000 Isolationism is not insulation.
00:16:17.000 Man, I'm telling you, she is playing with fire with her base. 1.00
00:16:21.000 The Young Turk people hate this kind of thing.
00:16:23.000 Hate it.
00:16:23.000 I'm telling you, she's gonna see base decay because of this.
00:16:27.000 Be careful turning your back on your most faithful voters to go find warmongers.
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00:17:35.000 Super excited for our guest here, who has really been, I would say, the most accurate reporter of the 2024 election.
00:17:43.000 And honestly, the most interesting, because he's an honest, old-school journalist that doesn't really have a political bend.
00:17:50.000 He just tells the facts, and that's such a rarity, isn't it, Andrew?
00:17:53.000 Yeah, I mean, I hear Mark Halperin's name.
00:17:57.000 Sorry, I blew the surprise, but I hear it literally on a daily basis.
00:18:01.000 He's been terrific.
00:18:02.000 Mark, welcome back to the program.
00:18:04.000 Mark is from Two Way TV, which is amazing.
00:18:06.000 You guys should check it out.
00:18:06.000 It is Two Way TV. Mark, you've been ahead of the curve here for a couple weeks.
00:18:11.000 You've been kind of whispering and saying, hey guys, the data is not as good as you might think if you're on the left and if you're in the Democrat Party.
00:18:20.000 Based on your broadcast on two-way TV, it is universally agreed on all sides that there's been a shift in Trump's direction the last two weeks.
00:18:28.000 What do you attribute this to, Mark?
00:18:30.000 I think partially it is just that Republicans tend to close better in recent presidential elections than Democrats.
00:18:37.000 Is there something else at play here?
00:18:39.000 Well, definitely a tribute to that.
00:18:41.000 And I thank you both for your kind words.
00:18:42.000 And I am just an old-fashioned reporter.
00:18:45.000 I'm for the American people.
00:18:46.000 So I'm not rooting for Donald Trump or rooting for Kamala Harris.
00:18:49.000 I'm just trying to report what's happening and allow people to understand as best I can do that from talking to sources on both sides.
00:18:56.000 In this case, I think there may be something to what you're saying, Republicans closing strong.
00:19:00.000 I also think, as I have since Kamala Harris ascended to the nomination, that the basic question was, would she be defined as a good steward of a good economy?
00:19:09.000 As someone who'd be a fierce commander-in-chief or which should be defined on the terms of the Trump campaign, weak, failed, and dangerously liberal.
00:19:16.000 And I think through the actions of Donald Trump himself, through their advertising, and through Kamala Harris's failure to directly address the hardest questions she gets when she talks to reporters, I think a lot of the undecided voters have shifted to Trump, either feeling they don't know enough about her or feeling that she's too liberal or feeling insulted that she's not answering the questions.
00:19:39.000 Yeah, so Mark, let's dive into some news yesterday.
00:19:42.000 Kamala Harris is traveling the country with Liz Cheney on a country over party tour, which we imagine, just kind of looking at this from the outside, is them, they're looking at their internals thinking that they have to win over more Republicans.
00:19:56.000 Would you say that is likely their strategy right now, that they have to win over center-right disaffected Republicans in order to achieve electoral success?
00:20:06.000 Well, they don't just have one challenge, and it seems to be true of the Trump campaign.
00:20:10.000 There's not a single demographic that they're going for, but there's no doubt that the Harris campaign has shifted a little bit with this focus on not just Liz Cheney and disaffected Republicans who may have voted for Nikki Haley in a primary or a caucus, but more back to the Biden message of this is about January 6th and about Whether Donald Trump's fit to hold office,
00:20:32.000 not engaging on the economy as much, not engaging on abortion as much, although they're still talking about those two issues.
00:20:40.000 But this seems to be their dominant closing argument.
00:20:43.000 The challenge they have is they still have other problems, particularly young men Men of color, Hispanic men and Latino men and Black men in a demographic that, of course, exists across all seven battleground states.
00:20:56.000 They also have a problem with Jewish voters and Arab and Muslim American voters.
00:21:01.000 And they've also got a problem with working class voters and men generally.
00:21:06.000 So again, Trump campaign has its own demographic issues to address as well.
00:21:10.000 But part of the challenge to the vice president is she's got some narrow issues with demographics and some broad issues with demographics. 1.00
00:21:17.000 And finding the ability to message all those things at once has proven to be a challenge for her.
00:21:21.000 And I think that's a big part of why she is behind right now.
00:21:25.000 So, Mark, I took some notes from your wonderful conversation with Tucker Carlson, and correct me if this is incorrect, but you basically said that the Kamala Harris campaign is betting on four things.
00:21:36.000 And I'm of the camp that I think this race is actually far closer than some of the bulls in Trump world say.
00:21:42.000 I think that it's far closer than even the betting markets suggest.
00:21:44.000 And I think these four things we really need to think about for those of us that enthusiastically want to see Donald Trump return.
00:21:51.000 You argue that the Kamala Harris campaign believes that the abortion vote is a hidden vote and it's not really popping up in the data, that they have a ground game that is superior to Donald Trump's, they believe that, and that they have an old-fashioned organizer either as a campaign manager or is in senior leadership of their campaign,
00:22:08.000 that they believe that the female vote or the woman vote Is that a correct summary of the four things that the Kamala Harris campaign is betting on?
00:22:33.000 Well, I'd also had the rank and competence of the people doing turnout for President Trump.
00:22:37.000 Just kidding.
00:22:38.000 That was a joke, Charlie.
00:22:40.000 So I used to laugh at that.
00:22:42.000 Yes, that is a good list.
00:22:44.000 I'm laughing, Mark.
00:22:45.000 All right.
00:22:46.000 That is a good list.
00:22:48.000 And although my sources, including my independent sources, I've got some secret sources who are just independent analysts of the data.
00:22:55.000 And even though they'd all say Trump is the favorite, that list...
00:23:00.000 Is why, if Kamala Harris wins the election, I won't be surprised at all.
00:23:05.000 Because we're dealing with a cycle coming out of COVID, with a replacement candidate, with Trump on the ballot for the third time, with all the lawfare and the assassinations, all the things that have gone on.
00:23:16.000 This is a cycle that even the best pollsters will tell you.
00:23:20.000 Very difficult to get a read on.
00:23:22.000 So I think, you know, from both a A practical point of view and a sanity point of view, I think your posture is probably a better one than the folks at Mar-a-Lago who are already measuring the drapes in different cabinet departments in the Oval Office.
00:23:39.000 It could be Trump wins easily.
00:23:41.000 I don't think a Harris easy victory is in the cards.
00:23:43.000 It could be a Trump easy win, but it could be a very narrow Trump loss as well.
00:23:48.000 And the reasons I listed that you repeated back, I think, are the main reasons to think That this could produce a surprise for those who currently believe, as my sources do, that Trump has got the upper hand.
00:24:00.000 So let's dive into one of them, which is the abortion topic.
00:24:05.000 Mark, have you seen data in recent elections, let's say the last 20 years, where an issue that is not popping in the public issue surveys ends up being determinative or a kind of secret issue, if you will?
00:24:20.000 Have you ever seen evidence of that?
00:24:22.000 It's a great question.
00:24:23.000 It's a little bit of a difficult thing to kind of get an apples to apples comparison on.
00:24:27.000 But I would say in 2016, some of the issues related to forever wars, some of the issues related to economics, some of the cultural issues that Donald Trump talked about, I don't think you would have seen in the polling leading up to Election Day.
00:24:43.000 And depending on how the questions were asked, we wouldn't necessarily have even seen it in the exit poll questions.
00:24:47.000 I think those issues were more powerful in allowing Donald Trump To narrowly beat Hillary Clinton than the polling leading up to the election suggested, in part because people didn't think to ask about it in the level of detail they should have.
00:25:01.000 That's not one issue.
00:25:02.000 That's a cluster of issues.
00:25:03.000 But that's the dynamic I'm talking about, which is it's not like the polls don't take into account abortion and reproductive freedom.
00:25:10.000 It's not like it isn't talked about a lot in the media.
00:25:12.000 But it could be it's a more energizing issue for who actually decides to vote rather than how they vote that makes the difference.
00:25:21.000 I tend to agree.
00:25:22.000 Again, I'm a contrarian by nature, and I am in far too many group text messages that are a little too cocky for my liking and a little bit too bullish.
00:25:31.000 And I say, guys, first of all, this issue is a thermonuclear issue that is far bigger than trade policy.
00:25:38.000 I'm sorry.
00:25:39.000 There's a potency, there's a personal nature to this issue that is unlike anything else.
00:25:45.000 And so this is important, Mark, let me say this.
00:25:47.000 Democrats in all of their blogs and in their intelligentsia would repeat this phrase.
00:25:52.000 Since the reversal of Roe or, you know, the Dobbs decision, we have overperformed every poll.
00:25:58.000 Is that largely correct?
00:26:00.000 It is largely correct.
00:26:01.000 It's been in ballot measures, which are a different kettle of fish than a presidential election.
00:26:07.000 But yes, there's not a single, that I know of at least, it's certainly generally true, that on these ballot measures they pass much more overwhelmingly than the polling suggested.
00:26:16.000 Andrew, do you have a thought here for Mark?
00:26:19.000 Yeah, I'm looking for a clip, Mark.
00:26:20.000 I wanted to get your reaction to it, but I'll describe it for you here.
00:26:23.000 Harry Anton went viral yesterday.
00:26:24.000 Yeah, CNN.
00:26:25.000 I mean, he's basically out there saying that Trump is bleeding support with white, non-college educated.
00:26:33.000 And it's slight, but it's such a huge portion of the pie here.
00:26:39.000 So are you seeing that in any of the internals that you're reviewing?
00:26:44.000 Charlie immediately checked with the Trump campaign.
00:26:46.000 They're saying they're not seeing that in their data.
00:26:47.000 We're not seeing it in our data, but apparently it's out there in someone's data.
00:26:52.000 Yeah.
00:26:53.000 I mean, Harry is a friend of mine.
00:26:54.000 He's a very good analyst.
00:26:55.000 I think, you know, a lot of the data he's brought forward over the last couple of weeks has cut in the other direction.
00:27:03.000 I've not seen that consistently over polls.
00:27:06.000 And if it were happening, I'm using the word bleeding.
00:27:09.000 Trump wouldn't be ahead in these battleground states where he is largely either even or ahead.
00:27:14.000 So I don't think that's a real thing, but it's worth watching.
00:27:18.000 I think the bigger problem Trump might have is with turnout rather than who people are saying they're for is getting his folks to the polls because Trump is dependent And Mar-a-Lago will tell you this, on lower propensity voters.
00:27:31.000 That's what you all have been focused on, because turning out those folks is a challenge.
00:27:37.000 But if you succeed, you change not just the outcome of the election, you change the electorate, if you can get these people to be part of the MAGA coalition.
00:27:45.000 How much should we glean or read into early voting?
00:27:50.000 So Republicans are off to a quick start in early voting, comparative to prior elections.
00:27:55.000 In fact, as of this broadcast right now, Republicans are enjoying elite and early voting in Arizona because they do party affiliation.
00:28:03.000 Can this be misleading or how predictive can early voting trends be?
00:28:09.000 Well, the more of it that comes in, the more predictive or determinative I would say it is.
00:28:15.000 In fact, and again, this is a big if, so I say if, if, if.
00:28:19.000 If the current early vote data stays on this trajectory, We won't need to vote on Election Day to know who's going to win.
00:28:28.000 Right now, Republicans are doing so well in the early vote, not as well as Democrats, but they don't need to.
00:28:33.000 The delta between Republicans and Democrats this time so far is so small.
00:28:40.000 And Republicans' advantage on Election Day voting is so large that if this continues, we will know on Election Day before the polls open that Donald Trump has won.
00:28:49.000 That is scaring Democrats.
00:28:51.000 They're hoping that the first few days are in aberration and they open up a big lead.
00:28:55.000 They will not open up, even under the most optimistic scenario for Democrats, the same size lead they had in 2020.
00:29:03.000 But they need a bigger lead, substantially bigger lead in these states.
00:29:07.000 And in Nevada, Nevada, always say it wrong, which is by acclamation, according to my sources, the best of the seven states for Kamala Harris.
00:29:18.000 The current early vote is disastrous for her, including Clark County, where Vegas is the biggest county by far in the state.
00:29:26.000 So if this continues, and this is more important for folks who want to understand where the election's headed, this is way more important than any poll you'll read.
00:29:34.000 If this continues, as I said, you'll wake up on Election Day.
00:29:38.000 You will not need to wait to see who votes on Election Day because Trump's ability to win on Election Day will be unquestioned.
00:29:49.000 Hey everybody, Charlie Kirk here.
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00:30:51.000 So, Mark, if you were to be talking to a Democrat audience and you would try to describe to them, if they're confused, why they're doing worse with Latino voters, for example, a USA Today Suffolk poll.
00:31:02.000 And I think this is a little bit rich, to be honest, but it shows Donald Trump up 11 points with Latino voters.
00:31:09.000 Again, I think that's a little bit over the top.
00:31:12.000 Why they're doing worse with Arab American voters, so on and so forth.
00:31:16.000 What would your explanation be just factual to a Democrat who's not in the space all the time that is trying to understand why they're underperforming with some of their key demographics?
00:31:25.000 The primary reason would be what I headlined my newsletter this morning, a multiracial working class revolt, primarily on inflation.
00:31:35.000 These folks are not revolting and turning to the Democrats for any reason different than the greatest strength Donald Trump has.
00:31:43.000 They feel very frustrated by the economy and their role in it.
00:31:46.000 and they're turning towards the candidate who they think is more likely to be able to deal with inflation.
00:31:53.000 A lot of them don't like the open border.
00:31:55.000 A lot of them don't like some of the cultural issues that the Biden-Harris administration has taken positions on.
00:32:02.000 But I would say primarily the primary issue for them is the economy.
00:32:06.000 And then culturally, Donald Trump has always had, as an entertainer, as a television host, and as a politician, he's always had an appeal to men and particularly younger men through lifestyle things, And we've seen him on podcasts, on TV, broadcasting, cable, and streaming.
00:32:25.000 He's making an explicit appeal to those groups.
00:32:28.000 And the vice president has not countered it.
00:32:31.000 Joe Biden had somewhat of the same problem.
00:32:33.000 The vice president has not countered that in policy or in culture in a way that's allowed her to win back the percentage that she would need to win of those groups.
00:32:43.000 So just in closing here, as we get closer and closer to the election, I mean, we're two weeks out here.
00:32:50.000 And in some ways, the die is mainly cast.
00:32:54.000 So what, if anything, could change this race?
00:32:56.000 Mark, I guess, from your expertise, considering that early voting is already beginning, and as we do this broadcast, hundreds of thousands of people are voting today.
00:33:04.000 Have you ever seen, in this modern era, any news cycle change things?
00:33:09.000 I mean, we had the Comey-Hillary-Clinton story, but are you of the belief that what's going to happen is already underway and it's going to largely go interrupted?
00:33:20.000 Or is there anything that could potentially on the margins change things?
00:33:23.000 I think that the bar for an October surprise having a true impact on the race is pretty high.
00:33:27.000 We've already seen assassination attempts and the replacement of one party's presidential nominee and lots of other high wattage events.
00:33:34.000 So I think the bar is pretty high.
00:33:35.000 I think if Kamala Harris successfully repelled a Martian invasion, I think that'd probably be something that would affect the trajectory of the race. 0.98
00:33:42.000 But that's pretty much where I'm putting the bar, guys.
00:33:44.000 If it's Martian invasion or higher is what it's going to require for the trajectory of this race to change.
00:33:50.000 Mark Halperin, a two-way TV. Thank you so much.
00:33:53.000 Come back soon and very insightful and very fair.
00:33:56.000 Thank you.
00:33:56.000 Thank you.
00:33:57.000 Thanks, Mark.
00:33:58.000 Email is freedom at charliekirk.com.
00:33:59.000 I think Mark is so fair and so analytical.
00:34:02.000 And I just want to – two things can be simultaneously true, everybody.
00:34:07.000 We can be starting very strong in early voting.
00:34:09.000 And the Democrats can have a couple surprises up their sleeve.
00:34:12.000 And I want to go through the list.
00:34:14.000 The abortion topic, their ground game, the woman vote, and Trump fatigue and sealing.
00:34:19.000 If those four things happen, we're going to have a much closer race than people think.
00:34:23.000 I think I don't buy into number four, Trump fatigue or sealing.
00:34:27.000 I don't see any evidence of that.
00:34:28.000 The woman vote is a legit thing. 1.00
00:34:29.000 Well, and I'll tell you, I was speaking with a young woman, college student at your event yesterday.
00:34:35.000 I asked her in North Carolina, are you going to be voting for Trump?
00:34:39.000 She said yes.
00:34:41.000 I said, what are your top issues?
00:34:42.000 She said, immigration.
00:34:43.000 And then I said, what about abortion?
00:34:45.000 So I asked.
00:34:47.000 And she said, well, I do think people should have access to abortion. 0.95
00:34:50.000 And I struggle with that.
00:34:51.000 And I remember going, you know, okay, this, you know, even with one of our own, this is a potential issue.
00:34:59.000 So, you know, I noted it.
00:35:01.000 I flagged it.
00:35:01.000 But, you know, I will tell you that I think that, you know, I take a lot of solace in that Cook political report.
00:35:09.000 We mentioned it briefly, but it bears repeating.
00:35:11.000 That the expectation when Kamala entered the race was that she was going to exceed Joe Biden's margin amongst women.
00:35:19.000 That has not happened.
00:35:21.000 But in fact, she's lost more with men.
00:35:23.000 So if those two things are actually true, I don't see a way that she can make up the margins unless she ends up doing better with... 0.94
00:35:35.000 White, non-college educated, working class voters.
00:35:39.000 But even still, if she's not doing better with women and she's doing worse with men, I mean, the goose is cooked. 0.99
00:35:45.000 Again, there could be a lot of wives that are lying to their husband who they're voting for. 1.00
00:35:48.000 That's another element.
00:35:49.000 I think women are just realizing, I mean, the dumbest thing in this election is that you're supposed to vote for Kamala because she's a woman. 1.00
00:35:56.000 So insulted.
00:35:57.000 Email us, freedom at charliekirk.com.
00:35:59.000 Your successful early voting stories.
00:36:01.000 We'll be sharing them throughout the hour.
00:36:03.000 Keep voting.
00:36:03.000 Go vote.
00:36:04.000 Go vote right now.
00:36:05.000 Make it too big to rig.
00:36:06.000 Swarm the polls.
00:36:07.000 Thanks so much for listening, everybody.
00:36:08.000 Email us, as always, freedom at charliekirk.com.
00:36:10.000 Thanks so much for listening, and God bless.