00:00:50.000We will not embrace the ideas that have destroyed countries, destroyed lives, and we are going to fight for freedom on campuses across the country.
00:01:49.000All the amazing patriots in California, all the amazing pastors, all the organizing, everything that happened in California might have actually resulted in the saving of the American Republic.
00:02:50.000And Schweikert is, I think he's going to win.
00:02:52.000That's Scottsdale Cave Creek, Arizona one.
00:02:54.000I don't see him losing that, especially with these drops.
00:02:56.000And so that's at least 13 seats, at least, which would mean that Republicans have a six-seat majority and potentially upwards of a seven or eight-seat majority.
00:03:06.000If it was not for California Republicans and conservatives and patriots organizing and running good candidates, Pelosi would still be Speaker of the House.
00:03:18.000The roads of the majority went through New York and California.
00:03:22.000And it was the New York map and getting that New York map change.
00:04:15.000Some huge numbers for DeWine, who is, by the way, a huge lockdown guy.
00:04:19.000And we're not going to forget about that.
00:04:22.000And at the same time, though, these maps in a lot of these states, Pennsylvania, like I've talked about the map issue there.
00:04:28.000The Supreme Court threw out the map that the state legislature had written, and they found some professor in California who basically punched something into an algorithm and said, okay, this is going to make the Democrats win.
00:04:57.000California and New York made up the difference.
00:05:00.000If California and New York would have performed as horribly as Pennsylvania and as Illinois or as Ohio congressionally, Nancy Pelosi is still speaker.
00:05:11.000So Pelosi is going to be retired because of the blue state New York and California remnant that rose up and retired.
00:05:22.000They're like the underground, like the conservative underground that's like operating under the regime occupied territories, but still able to get these behind victories.
00:05:37.000And then every once in a while, it adds up and it adds up and it adds up as we've seen in this battle of attrition that we're in, political battle of attrition, that when it comes to the House, it is about each seat.
00:06:21.000So he ran for governor, putting a referendum on Hochul, which all of a sudden made a statewide conversation on crime, on taxes, on inflation, which then really provided air cover for.
00:06:36.000It provided air cover for all of these other candidates that in New York otherwise would have just been kind of picked off one by one by the Driple C. Instead, Lee Zeldon, he distracted resources.
00:06:49.000And what happened to the head of the Driple C?
00:07:30.000And I'm not saying, of course, there was ballots, mules, and fraud, but you're trying to tell me there's not that in New York, there's not that in California, is that the people in New York and California overwhelmed it and they overcame it is what I'm saying, right?
00:07:54.000And so the United States House of Representatives is large in part going to be Republican, thanks to two blue states that usually are made fun of, scoffed at, that kind of are the end of jokes like, well, at least you don't have to live in San Francisco or at least live in L.A. You know what?
00:08:10.000The California Patriots said, we're not going to take it anymore.
00:08:13.000Which L.A., by the way, I mean, there's about a hair's difference between Caruso and the Democrats.
00:08:21.000I think she's going to pull it out, but the fact that it's that competitive, you got to point that out.
00:08:26.000So anyway, I just want to say thank you, thank you, thank you.
00:08:28.000If you live in New York, thank you guys for rising up, for supporting good candidates.
00:08:33.000If you live in Long Island, in Long Island, you should guys celebrate this weekend because you delivered a massive blow to the Democrat Party, a blow that the people of Ohio and Michigan and Minnesota were not able to scrap together.
00:08:47.000And I'm not insulting anyone from those states.
00:09:25.000Right when the cameras went off, of course, right?
00:09:30.000Conservative here says abortion is generally a loser issue for conservatives.
00:09:34.000It's time to do what Europe has done, put some limits and then move on.
00:09:37.000Lindsey Graham didn't help us at all, Dave.
00:09:39.000Look, I just, I'm saying a lot of people are tired of the issue and they want to move on with it, especially Gen Zers.
00:09:46.000However, I'm also involved in the culture war, so I'm not going to stop talking, but I'm going to try to persuade people and convince people to be pro-life.
00:09:51.000I also want to point out, though, that just hold on a second, right?
00:09:56.000Roe v. Wade was the target of a 30-year campaign by the conservative movement to, number one, lay down the legal foundation to pass heartbeat bills, wait for technology to catch up with where we knew the truth was, get the president, by the way, president of the United States, Donald Trump, who had the appointees on the Supreme Court that were able to finally look,
00:10:21.000give Roe v. Wade the accurate legal review that it needed and then send it to the curb.
00:10:28.000And so the takedown of Roe v. Wade was this massive victory for the conservative movement.
00:10:33.000It shows a concerted effort that spanned an entire generation in the movement, and we shouldn't diminish that.
00:10:39.000And we also, we understand that there was backlash.
00:10:42.000But we also need to point out that this was a huge movement, and it shows what a unified force the conservative movement can be when we all get on the line and we all unite behind one solid issue.
00:10:54.000And look, we know that Donald Trump, right?
00:10:58.000Everybody knows I'm a Trump supporter, but everybody knows that Donald Trump isn't exactly the most pro-life, super movement, conservative, evangelical kind of guy out there, right?
00:13:01.000The point is this: this now goes to this goofy, algorithmic second and third round where they have to tabulate the votes.
00:13:09.000And I'll be very honest, I do not even understand how this is tabulated, where it depends on whether or not people ranked Shabaka or if they did a second candidate.
00:13:21.000Shabaka's hope in this whole tabulation process is that if a vast majority of people only ranked Shabaka and left the rest of the ballot completely blank, that's her hope.
00:13:34.000Now, in the congressional race, which is equally as frustrating, Democrat Mary Palota got 47% before the runoff, while Palin and Begich are right around 25%.
00:13:47.000If all Republicans stayed loyal this cycle, this will go to the Republican Party, but that didn't help happen in the special election, and it probably won't happen here.
00:13:54.000Therefore, Democrats are probably going to win the Alaska congressional seat.
00:13:59.000And so, basically, it looks as if, unless there's some sort of surprise in Alaska, thanks to Mitch McConnell's $9 million, Lisa Murkowski is going to hold on to her Senate seat despite losing a plurality of votes in the first round of ranked choice voting with four other competitors.
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00:16:04.000Look, there is something interesting, though, Jack.
00:16:06.000One of the reasons why the polls were so off in some of these states is that the Democrats have actually figured out a way to outperform polls by mastering vote by mail.
00:16:18.000And Charlie, you had the point the other day where in the Trump era, we had become accustomed to sort of seeing a poll and then adding three that's that was my built-in algorithm.
00:16:44.000He has a way to connect with a huge swath of this country in the Midwest, in the South, in the Rust Belt, obviously, that other candidates just have not been able to replicate.
00:16:58.000And you can talk about that at length as to why.
00:17:01.000But we're not seeing the same turnout numbers when he is on the ballot and when he isn't.
00:17:06.000And so because of that, those polls, and we said before, the polls for this election actually were pretty good in many cases.
00:17:16.000Now, some outlets out there, I think maybe we should take another look at and determine whether or not we want to continue relying on them.
00:17:24.000And I think that RCP, by the way, has a great accountability project that they're working on right now, where they're going to be going through and then ranking and stacking all of the pollsters by their accuracy, using the final outcomes, weighting it by the last few elections, and then seeing where we are.
00:17:42.000But at the same time, the Trump effect that we were thinking about.
00:17:46.000So, okay, that works and Trump's on the ballot.
00:17:49.000But this vote by mail effect that they've been able to demonstrate here now through at least two consecutive national elections, all right, that's real and it has to be confronted.
00:19:22.000We're going to cover today, I think, all of the remaining ballots that exist out in Arizona, where they are, where they need to go, what percentages we are estimating because we're going through and brick by brick, going, okay, here are the tranches of votes that are left.
00:19:36.000What percentage can we guesstimate, can we estimate based off with factual evidence to back it up of why we think that we can win some of these?
00:19:46.000We know we keep saying that this is why we keep saying over and over and over and over, Caroline's going to be your governor, is because what's left has the capacity to put her over big time.
00:20:25.000And I've been just bragging on our amazing California Patriots that basically, you know, delivered the entire House of Representatives for us.
00:21:26.000And by the way, one of the great things never to happen in Arizona, and I think Shooter was the one that actually helped knock this down in the legislature.
00:21:32.000Don Shooter, if I'm not mistaken, was when he killed the film tax credit bill in Arizona.
00:21:39.000They bundled a bunch of money for them this last session.
00:21:46.000There's going to be zero Hollywood in the state of Arizona.
00:21:49.000Yeah, so what we're talking about here is why Georgia is now all of a sudden this bluish, reddish state, purple state, is that these red state governors who can't see the forest from the trees, they say, oh, wow, look at all this economic development we could get.
00:22:00.000And we have all this land where we could bring in Hollywood and they could film all these movies.
00:22:04.000Well, then you bring in the entire Hollywood infrastructure.
00:23:51.000Has become bluer because of all these tech companies that move there.
00:23:55.000So look, we're all for pro-economic development, but instead of moving and transplanting people from California, Carrie Lake needs to go to the ASU business school and basically say, I'm going to employ you guys first.
00:24:06.000And those guys will become more right-wing because they'll see a Republican governor prioritizing like ASU graduates instead of saying Caltech and UC Berkeley people.
00:25:07.000That's the biggest question with Chandler because people are looking at this map that we were going over yesterday, and I got messages that said, like, holy crap, I didn't realize Chandler went so blue.
00:26:55.000GOP has a massive political problem on its hands.
00:26:57.000While Republicans made gains amongst minority voters, they'll have to address the rising threat of a politically active generation with a little connection of traditional values.
00:27:06.000First and foremost, they're also the most suicidal, alcohol-addicted, psychiatric, drug-addicted, depressed, unhappy, anxious generation in history.
00:27:14.000And so they're either going to figure it out or they're all going to kill themselves using drugs and alcohol.
00:30:52.000I'm telling you, California has some fight left in it, man.
00:30:56.000I mean, the story of this cycle is how the Midwest underperformed and California overperformed.
00:31:02.000And look, this was a sinister plot, by the way, of the crony capitalist company Lyft to try to get taxpayers to get them to fund their electric car fleet, basically.
00:32:22.000The message should be county-by-county registration drives.
00:32:25.000600,000 vote deficit will be difficult for any Republican or Democrat to overcome.
00:32:29.000What he's saying is that if everyone who voted for Trump or if one fourth of people who voted for Trump in 2020 also showed up for this Senate race, Fetterman would have been defeated.
00:33:12.000The end of the year is right around the corner, and it's time for you to consider a change in your investment plan.
00:33:16.000This is Charlie Kirk, and I strongly recommend you go right now and see my friends at PAX to review your investments.
00:33:23.000They are the one firm I know that focuses on biblical, responsible investing and does not force you to invest in companies that literally attack Christian values.
00:33:33.000If we want religious liberty in our country, we have to stop investing in companies that are trying to suppress our freedoms.
00:34:16.000Yeah, we do have breaking out of Florida, even though I know we're all eyes on Arizona.
00:34:20.000But look, you know, I like to kind of scan the horizon, see what's going on.
00:34:24.000And Marco Rubio did not expect to see breaking out of Marco Rubio today, but we do have breaking out of Marco Rubio because Marco Rubio has just released a statement calling for the Senate GOP leadership vote next week should be postponed.
00:34:43.000First, we need to make sure that those who want to lead us are genuinely committed to fighting for the priorities and values of the working Americans of every background who gave us big wins in states like Florida.
00:36:10.000I mean, look, it'll be really interesting to see kind of how some of these senators come down, like newly elected Eric Schmidt in Missouri, where he's going to vote.
00:37:06.000But there's kind of this third type of Republican that has kind of been kind of created, which is people that are starting to realize their base of voters are so disconnected from the old bulls and they do want to kind of straddle the line and they're going more in that direction.
00:37:19.000It's like they're not populists themselves by nature, but they understand.
00:37:43.000Ron Johnson went to war against Pfizer, AstraZeneca, McGurna, and Johnson ⁇ Johnson, and he had the courage to do it and then live to tell about it and win decisively in Wisconsin, right?
00:37:52.000And so I think there is kind of this pushback against the kind of old way of doing D.C.
00:37:57.000And I mean, Marco, of all people doing that, Marco has a lot of power in D.C. He's very well respected in the Senate.
00:38:15.000Well, I mean, I think about this, and we're talking about how this overlays the future for 2024.
00:38:22.000And the map that we're looking at, we've talked about this quite frequently on your show, is that the map comes down to essentially four states, depending upon what happens to Pennsylvania.
00:38:32.000Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Georgia.
00:38:38.000It's so intriguing you bring up Ron Johnson because what could happen in Arizona might be the opposite of what happened in Wisconsin, which is that you have Ron Johnson win, right?
00:38:49.000And have this big voice on the Senate side and Michael's loss.
00:39:06.000And I think this is part of where I think a lot of the feelings exist because Marco Rubia was kind of involved with the chamber guys and he was gang of A for sure.
00:39:25.000He started as a moderate movement, moderate movement.
00:39:28.000Yeah, he's just, they just like go flops back and forth.
00:39:30.000But I think that what you're seeing is this is that, you know, people are looking at this and they're looking at this very pragmatically and going, look, we can't live in this world where like Mitch McConnell doesn't give Florida any money and like be okay with it.
00:39:43.000We can't live in this world where like Wisconsin gets like underfunded and be okay with it.
00:39:48.000We can't live in this world where Arizona gets completely ignored and be okay with it if we want to win for the future.
00:39:54.000So yeah, we should delay leadership elections until we know who our freaking senators are, first and foremost, and get those extra votes so that the public has general confidence in who we like moving forward because more Mitch McConnell is not going to make the movement excited.
00:40:09.000I do have another take on this that isn't necessarily political, but this is not a press statement.
00:40:15.000This is not an interview that he gave.
00:40:22.000He's potentially changing the future of our republic based on something that he posted on Twitter.
00:40:29.000So if you're not on Twitter, if you're not seeing that for all the people that want to, oh, Elon is doing this and Twitter is stupid and don't worry about it.
00:40:38.000This is where the narrative, this is where the news setting, this is where the news making, this is where the people who kind of start narratives.
00:41:10.000I mean, we don't have an exact time and there's been no update on when they're going to do this, but our expectation is that the 290,000 votes that they were trying to signature verify have been verified.
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00:44:58.000So, Trump, let's go over Trump 2020 real quick.
00:45:00.000So, Trump 2020's turnout number, I don't have the exact number in front of me, but I'm working off of memory off of what I looked at before.
00:45:37.000I'm going to get, I'll get updates on that.
00:45:39.000I do know that the separation was a little bit less than 7%.
00:45:43.000That's all that matters, really, for our estimation, is that the breakage and what we're calling breakage between Trump's Election Day vote win versus Trump's Election Day vote drop-offs was, let's call it 7%, a little bit less.
00:46:00.000That means that how we look at this, we go, we use that as a measuring stick.
00:46:06.000Kerry Lake overperformed Trump on Election Day turnout pretty significantly, right?
00:46:23.000Kerry doesn't need as much space to win.
00:46:26.000Kerry would have to underperform Trump significantly on Election Day drop-offs after having outperformed him on Election Day in person in order to lose.
00:46:38.000The likelihood of that happening is so low, it verges on the scale of fraud.
00:46:45.000Like the likelihood of that happening, to me is inconceivable.
00:46:50.000Well, but here we know this by precincts, though.
00:46:53.000We see precincts that Kerry is barely winning because we know that there were significant amount of drops.
00:47:57.000If he can remain closer to that, you know, he has to remain in the 60s, essentially, between his breakage with that day of drop-offs, then he has a shot.
00:49:21.000I'd say I'd probably give, I'll be honest, I don't want to be cynical.
00:49:24.000I'm probably going to give the favorite to the Democrat in Nevada just because of the amount of ballots that are out there, because of the nonsense that they do in Clark County.
00:50:23.000They just see what they need to get it across the finish line.
00:50:26.000And magically, all these culinary votes kind of go in.
00:50:30.000And look, this is one of the reasons why Blake has an uphill battle when you don't control the recorder's office: it's not even necessary like fake ballots and machines from China or whatever.
00:51:00.000I'm telling you guys, you guys are going to become very familiar with the word adjudication because this is what I think we're going to end up talking about if we have a close race for Blake and Mark Kelly.
00:51:10.000Is that all we're going to be talking about is adjudication through the weekend, through early next week, because every adjudicated ballot is going to end up mattering.
00:51:18.000So essentially what happens is ballots can get, and I'll explain it and we'll re-explain this a zillion times.
00:52:12.000But these adjudicated ballots, these adjudicated ballots that are bouncing back from these machines, we were, I was told early, and I don't want to spread rumors, but I was told there's over 90,000 of them.
00:52:23.000If that's true and accurate, guys, that's a ton.
00:52:43.000Oh, you mean they could be worse ballots.
00:52:45.000So the question is, is out of that 90K, how many of those were pre-election day drop-offs versus 90,000 in adjudication?
00:52:53.000I will tell you, I don't have the historical averages in front of me, but knowing this, since I've been doing this for a long time and I have a brain, yes, that's very high.
00:54:02.000And it is, this is what Rich Barris says.
00:54:06.000It's highly unlikely, almost impossible to win Nevada without Washoe.
00:54:09.000We're trying to see what's left with election day vote because it does look like there may be more in Nye and Elko at least, but I cannot get a straight answer on totals.
00:54:18.000First heard about 13,000 election day perhaps left in Nye.
00:54:21.000But Election Day in Washoe or male breaking back to Laxalt, which absolutely can happen, looking at the party breakdown is necessary from Rich Barris.
00:54:29.000So there's a little bit of hope there.
00:54:50.000I just, I love these people that are in the media that act as if there's not a corrupt person that has ever run an election in the history of the country.
00:54:56.000I just think it's in the past, but not current.
00:55:00.000It's as if all of our fallen nature just disappears the moment you get into accounting.
00:56:18.000And it's so obvious who the characteristic of these voters are that Kerry could she could win 52% of remaining ballots and still become governor.
00:56:27.000We're modeling anywhere between 68 to 75%.
00:56:30.000There's a chance she overperforms the drop-offs, too.
00:56:34.000And there's a reason why they're holding back these ballots is because I think they want to create a narrative and set in that Mark Kelly is one and no matter what, it's not close and kind of this whole thing.
00:56:42.000So you think that this Operation Slow Walk that we're seeing right here actually has more to do though with the Senate seat than the governor.
00:57:06.000She should have had her election speech, her victory speech three nights ago.
00:57:10.000Yeah, I mean, they're going to kind of cast this mirage of doubt, right?
00:57:14.000And so look, we're going to, we're going to see, and by the way, if they were actually processing ballots in real time, if they were processing ballots in real time, Kerry would be up like 90,000 votes and Blake and Mark would be going up and down and up and down and up and down.
00:57:28.000And we would sit down and see on election night.
00:57:31.000Yeah, instead, they want to kind of bake in this like Mark Kelly's up 100,000 votes and it's kind of just like sticking there.
00:57:36.000Meanwhile, there's this huge, I mean, for example, if they counted all 290,000 ballots today, no matter what, Blake would be within like 10,000 votes.
00:57:45.000That's just, it's just the basic, like the basic.
00:57:46.000Well, that's what we had on election night, that it would either be 10,000 up or 10,000 down right there.
00:57:51.000The question is Pima and the rurals and all of that.
00:57:53.000It's as if they're kind of withholding this surge of votes of the best voters we have in the whole state, the best voters we have in the entire county.
00:58:01.000And they're just kind of being like, we hope it's not going to be necessary to add them until we have to add them.
00:59:42.000There are, when we were doing our grassroots events, there's people that come up to me and they tell me stories that they grew up like eating cereal at an eight-year-old watching Carrie Lake do the local news.
00:59:51.000Like they went to bed watching Carrie Lake do specials because she was morning and evening anchor.
01:00:23.000That there is a 90, there's a 90,000 vote delta.
01:00:26.000So as the votes are counted right now, there's 90,000 more people that voted for Mark Kelly, but also voted for Kerry Lake.
01:00:34.000And look, we knew that there were going to be Lake Kelly voters, which is when I was giving advice kind of to the top of, you know, the top big picture with Blake.
01:00:42.000It's like, you need to run as closely to Kerry as possible.
01:01:35.000And so if you think about it, if you're going to drop off on election day, you didn't fill that out three weeks ago and then be like, yeah, then I'm going to wait.
01:01:41.000Now you probably have it on your counter.
01:01:43.000And then the night before you fill it out, you kind of go through the props.
01:01:46.000That means that those ballots were filled out at a time where Blake was hotter than cooler.
01:01:58.000She's probably already crying and thinking up an excuse because Kerry Lake with vote by mail already is winning almost every single one of the swing precincts.
01:02:05.000And if you go through some of the other swing precincts, she's down like two points here, two points.
01:02:09.000She's down as Secretary State, too, right?
01:02:34.000Well, I mean, Mark Fincham had a lot of media run against him, but it really was Blake Masters that had the paid media that was really dumped on his end without, and we have to say this again, and this goes back to the Marco Rubio tweet, without any response from the outside, from groups outside of the state, from these big money groups outside of the state.
01:02:55.000They did not come in the same way they did in like Alaska or some of the other states for Blake Masters.
01:03:19.000Democrats know that this is not a blue state, okay?
01:03:22.000So they know that any apparent lead that they have, regardless of the ticket, is going to be evaporated if there's still 500,000 ballots left on the table.
01:03:30.000So they're doing these selective drops to try to get people to say, oh, wow, well, maybe they have a chance or maybe we can call it early.
01:03:36.000And that's when the adjudication thing really comes into play, right?
01:03:39.000So if you have tabulation incumbency, if you're able to all of a sudden decide what ballots go into adjudication and the race is artificially closer because you guys are dropping certain ballots in a certain way, then all of a sudden, if you, for example, if you put one out of three ballots into adjudication, nothing's stopping them from doing that.
01:03:59.000And is there, do they have the ability to select the location for that?
01:04:07.000So for example, and I don't want to get, again, spitballing, brainstorming, and accusing, but do they have the ability to say, we're going to put these ballots in because we think they're more heavily R versus ballots that are more that are more heavily D?
01:06:31.000Carrie Lake is marching to Veterans Day parade today.
01:06:35.000So, you know, she's the, she's going to be our next governor and things are just looking great.
01:06:41.000I mean, I'll tell you, like when we break down these numbers again, and we didn't really get into the numbers and we're going to get more fiercely into them tonight, depending upon what drops happen today.
01:06:49.000Because look, every single one of these drops that happens, the closer we get to, I mean, we get into Nevada territory, like you're talking about, which is like every single vote and single percentage for Blake.
01:07:01.000Especially for Blake, but even for Kerry, you know, and so, I mean, things are looking great for Kerry.
01:07:07.000These Maricopa Day of drops, if they mimic what Trump got, just that what Trump got, she's going to win convincingly.
01:07:18.000If they're above that, which is where she was trending, she was trending like 10 points above Trump on election day.
01:07:53.000Of four or four Republican voters, Republicans that vote all the time, there are 351,000 of those people left that still have not voted and recorded a vote in Arizona.
01:08:28.000So this could have been whittled down slightly.
01:08:31.000But as of yesterday, just before the Maricopa County drop, 351,000, what we call it, Republican Party in the bank votes had not yet been cast in Arizona.
01:11:26.000So, what you're saying, though, is that based on voter data, it shows as if they have not registered a vote yet in the system.
01:11:32.000Yeah, so as of yesterday, before the Maricopa County drop, like 351,404 Republicans had not yet voted in Arizona, which that's a really high number.
01:11:46.000Well, that means that all of our theories, all of our data, all of our anecdotes, all of our projections, all of our precinct modeling is correct.
01:11:53.000That group usually on a midterm will show up 80% of the time, probably would be my guess.
01:12:16.000Okay, so that's yeah, it's 57% before we even get to independence, and we're winning independence two to one.
01:12:26.000Yeah, so 57% is almost like if I had to guess, like if you said, Charlie, like jar of jelly beans on the you think we're gonna win 70% of remaining votes.
01:12:37.000I mean, that number, if we're correct, the 80% of that remaining total number turns out of 351, uh, four or four Republicans turned out.
01:12:53.000Uh, you can go to the Maricopa County Recorders website.
01:12:56.000And then, what do you do once you're there?
01:12:57.000Uh, you can put it in, it tells you your vote status.
01:12:59.000And they actually do this by text message as well.
01:13:01.000Okay, so hey, this: if you're looking, if you're watching from Arizona, if your vote has not been tabulated yet, email me freedom at charliekirk.com if your vote has not been counted yet.
01:16:17.000This listening to Charlotte Kirk show.
01:16:18.000But these are your four out of four, five out of four is what I'm saying.
01:16:22.000I'm getting a tabulation on what percentage was remaining of the Dem in the bank.
01:16:28.000And remember, Democrats were not as excited to turn out as we were.
01:16:32.000So I'm not as convinced by that number.
01:16:35.000But if that number is hanging in that 20, 20 percentile range, that's good for us because we can kind of start to estimate, yeah, do we have 50% of our ballots straight up?
01:16:45.000404s are still yet left to be counted.
01:16:50.000If you want to know what the left's real plan is for your kids, just look at how they react to the wonderful company of Patriot Mobile.
01:16:57.000I use Patriot Mobile and you should too.
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01:17:04.000This is because they take a portion of your bill and fund conservative causes and candidates who believe in sanctity of life, freedom of speech, the Second Amendment, and they're winning.
01:18:11.000I tend to believe that's good for us, actually.
01:18:14.000Yeah, by the way, since I asked the question, there's at least 1,500 people that have emailed us saying their vote has not yet been counted.
01:18:42.000Yeah, this is, I've been very impressed by her.
01:18:45.000I'm trying to get her to think about running for office here.
01:18:50.000Email us freedom at charliekirk.com and tell us exactly when she's in.
01:18:54.000So look, another really smart data guy that's listening says, Charlie, I think you guys are underestimating the percentage of Lake and Master voters after the chaos of 2020 drop-offs will be a higher percentage of GOP than 2020 by DC.
01:19:53.000No, but this is the reason why we're abused.
01:19:55.000Like look what they're balloting the ballots.
01:19:57.000They're like sickly dropping like the worst drops like they could possibly do, like trying to control the media narrative, like coordinating with the media.
01:20:05.000Like Bill Gates is like, little Bill Gates is like, like has New York Times a speed dial.
01:21:43.000What Maracopa's update from our observers and our legal team this morning was that that gigantic group of late earlies, those drop-offs, they've finished signature verification, but they have not yet begun to tabulate them.
01:21:57.000They're still finishing tabulating the 17,000 that were in door three because of their printer issues where they failed to properly allow people the opportunity to vote on site.
01:22:07.000They finished almost 5,000 of those yesterday.
01:22:10.000And now, even though those are tabulated, because there are random, unknown, potentially onesie twosie numbers that had to go to adjudication, they're holding the results for the whole batch until the adjudication is done.
01:22:23.000And we want them to do that because as we learned in the audit process, when they didn't do that in 2020, we could not reconcile what was adjudicated and what was not.
01:22:49.000And we've asked the legal team to get a number from them today.
01:22:52.000Adjudication is when some team of a Republican and a Democrat are going to look at your ballot and try to determine what you meant to do when you cast that vote.
01:23:01.000The less ballots that go to adjudication, the better it is for us.
01:23:03.000The reports I'm getting is that a lot of them are a result of the judge races in Maricopa County.
01:23:08.000We had a large judicial retention, but there's room for mischief when things go into adjudication.
01:23:29.000Oh, this thing's about to get real interesting.
01:23:32.000So Gina, what you're telling me is that you've discovered that 351,000 people that are four out of four voters that include voted in the primary in August, which means they're very high propensity Republicans, have not even had their vote tabulated yet.
01:23:47.000So Maricopa County gave us a readout this morning via our legal observers that the 292,000 election day drop-offs have completed signature verification, but have not yet begun to go to adjudication.
01:24:13.000Then the next group of ballots that we have where there's a discrepancy as to whether or not they've completed tabulated is the 30 to 40 some odd thousand that were cast under what we call an emergency provision.
01:24:25.000Those were the de facto extension of early.
01:24:28.000These people voted on Saturday or Monday.
01:24:31.000So the part of the issue is that Maricopa County is doing a lot of communicating, but they're not communicating clearly about where these ballots are in these buckets of the process.
01:24:41.000So we have two observers in there that are both lawyers in one part of the facility, and they're getting different answers when they're asking this question, you know, which would lead one to believe that it's possible that this whole 50,000 batch hasn't even begun and that's going to take us up to about 345.
01:24:58.000Yeah, so but how do you know they're four out of four voters just through voter data?
01:25:01.000Basically, are you able to see publicly whether or not their vote has been counted?
01:25:07.000Well, yeah, it's the estimate of the people that we think that were in there on that day.
01:25:12.000It's the result of the EV33 report that's issued by Maricopa County that tells us who are the people that we have a record that their ballot came back, right?
01:25:20.000So you look at the party breakdown of the record of the people whose ballot came back and that should give you an idea if they're three by fours or four by fours.
01:25:26.000So generally, these are the high propensity voters.
01:25:29.000These are the people that went in by and large of the 292,000.
01:25:33.000These are the people that went in on election day or dropped it on election day because they wanted to make absolutely sure that their vote counted.
01:25:39.000And in fact, the reason that number is so high is because people went to vote in person.
01:25:43.000It was a complete and total show, if I may.
01:25:49.000They got the mail ballot out of the car and then they dropped it because they needed to make absolutely sure that their ballot counted and they were deprived of the right to vote in person because of the total epic failure of the Maricopa County administration.
01:26:17.000So the elections director in Maricopa County confirmed last night that there were more than two vote centers that had an issue where at the end of the night, part of the poll worker breakdown process is they pull all the ballots out of the tabulator bins and they bag them.
01:26:35.000And when they pulled them out, they pulled out the separator that keeps the tabulated ballots on one side and the door three ballots on the other side.
01:26:44.000So, if those got commingled together, and it's our understanding that they got commingled together in more than two vote center locations, that would mean that we have ballots that didn't get counted when they said how many went into door three and later began the process of sending them to tabulation.
01:27:01.000So, yes, I believe there are potentially more than potentially a lot more, but there are more than 17 votes.
01:27:06.000Gina, what two polling centers were those?
01:27:18.000Do you think those were in good areas for us or bad areas for us?
01:27:23.000I do not know, but either way, the election day voters were ours, even in areas that might not have been generally leaning our way.
01:27:32.000There were a large proportion of people that have had enough of Biden administration policies that were pulling the ticket for our party.
01:27:39.000The Americopa County, I want to reiterate this: the Maricopa County Elections Director, Scott Jarrett, confirmed to you that multiple vote centers had a massive amount of ballots that were collected and mixed in together that have yet to be tabulated.
01:27:56.000And we don't know what that outstanding number looks like yet.
01:28:00.000It's correct that he reported it to one of our people that are on site yesterday.
01:28:34.000But safe to say that we have more than 17,000 votes that should be counted in door three, of which they've still only managed to get through 4,600 of the original 17,000.
01:28:50.000And they're talking about engaging in a process where they do some kind of internal attempt at reconciliation so that they can look at the data cards.
01:28:58.000The reads they're getting on the data cards in those locations aren't matching the number of ballots they have because these ballots got mixed together.
01:29:05.000So to my mind, the easiest way to ensure that every ballot got counted is just to retabulate every ballot that came in to that vote center.
01:29:15.000Yeah, how would we know if they're just in bags?
01:29:18.000Well, that's well, they're bagged and tagged and labeled by the vote center that they came in.
01:29:23.000So there's supposed to be a sheet in there that tells you what location that they're from.
01:29:26.000So we can tell the difference between check-ins and votes that are yet to be tabulated for that vote center, correct?
01:29:33.000They already did a hand count verification of certain vote centers.
01:29:36.000Was the hand count verification done in one of these vote centers?
01:29:41.000We don't know because we don't know which vote centers they are because they haven't told us.
01:29:54.000But where the other ones are, you know, I don't know.
01:29:56.000We've reached out to all of the observer coordinators to make sure that throughout all of Maricopa County, all our data is on one sheet.
01:30:02.000And we should know within the next couple of hours after looking at all our data where we think they are.
01:30:07.000And then we're reaching out to get them to try to tell us what they, I mean, their plan is not clear to us and they're not being transparent, as you know, in any way.
01:30:15.000What percentage of ballots left in Pima County are late earlies versus election day drop-offs?
01:30:21.000So it looks like, according to what Gabby said this morning, that she was conflating, it was not that there were 103,000 late early drop-offs.
01:30:31.000It's really about 50,000 late, early drop-offs and then 44 or 45,000 that came in for that Friday, Saturday, Monday.
01:31:44.000Not today, because the drop we're going to get today is probably going to be some of those Friday, Saturday, Monday, and only about 4,600 of door three.
01:31:51.000So we're not going to see a true and accurate estimation of what happens today.
01:31:54.000So tonight, we don't get any late, we don't get any election day drop-offs today?
01:32:02.000No, that's, I mean, that's the readout I got this morning is that they completed the signature verification, but they have yet to start tabulating those because they're still trying to tabulate the remaining 12,000 of the door three, then the 12,000 of the door three that then have to go to adjudication, and then they will begin to tabulate the late earlies.
01:32:25.000So if we're still working our way through this adjudication shoots and ladders game, and they need to hold the whole batch, then that means that our 12,000 that get through tabulation from door three need to go through adjudication, and then those will come out the other end of the reporting.
01:32:41.000That needs to happen before the late earlies of the 292,000 go to tabulation.
01:32:47.000If even one of them's got an adjudicated ballot in it, then those 200 ballot batches have to be held and go through adjudication.
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01:34:16.000What are we thinking about here, Jack?
01:34:19.000I just look at some of these memes that are coming in and I look at some of these jokes about Maricopa County, the fact that you can't even actually get a solid number on how many votes were cast at this point.
01:34:32.000You don't even know how many votes were out.
01:35:27.000Because these things are changing in real time.
01:35:28.000Yeah, we want to just make sure we get it right because it's different about yesterday at noon versus the day of the election.
01:35:36.000But heading into election day, what we do know is this, that on election day, 46% of Republican likely voters, and this is the 404 thing that we're talking about.
01:35:44.000We're going to call them likelies, right?
01:35:46.000Republican likely voters were still outstanding.
01:36:37.000So that means that we probably still have 20, you know, somewhere in the ballpark in the 20s, in the 20s, of how many voters we still have left yet to tabulate.
01:37:03.000So we know in the bank in Maricopa County, likely and across the state, or somewhere probably in the ballpark of 200,000 votes for sure that we can count on.
01:37:32.000I mean, the reality is this, is that if we get independent breaks at that level and we have that many outstanding votes, there's a really solid chance that Blake has a pathway.
01:37:44.000I mean, you're talking about winning 75% of these drops potentially.
01:38:43.000I'm not saying, oh, he's going to end up being wrong and eating his words, but that's not necessarily true.
01:38:47.000But here's the thing: what Tyler and what you have put together is a deep understanding of the systemic destruction of the Arizona voting system and the reconfiguration into this monstrosity of a situation that they have now, particularly in Maricopa County, but also across the state.
01:39:10.000And if you don't understand that, if you don't actually have that on-the-ground understanding of how much elections have changed here just in the past four years, then you know, you might, you might have your ear all a little bit off the ground.
01:39:25.000One of our team members said something so interesting.
01:39:27.000He says, This whole thing is so weird.
01:39:28.000There's no prior case of a major political actor encouraging the specific behavior of dropping off a mail-in ballot on election day and then altering projects.
01:40:22.000The day that they start counting actually these ballots, people start freaking out because they're like, it says online that my vote was counted.
01:40:31.000I mean, I remember the system didn't work.
01:40:34.000The system's, I mean, to some credit at the recorder's office, the system's better than it was in 2020 because it was a disaster last time because none of it made sense.
01:41:12.000No, this is that reporting system versus these batches.
01:41:18.000I don't, and I'm just going to put this out there.
01:41:20.000It wouldn't surprise me if those systems were not talking to each other and if that data wasn't completely accurate.
01:41:26.000It might be accurate a week from now, a month from now, but in real time, it would not surprise me if those systems were not talking to each other and that those numbers that we're talking about that you guys are modeling aren't necessarily reflective of when you go and look up your personal ballot.
01:42:48.000Really, Nevada, the old way of Nevada, Nevada was like a smaller version of us, which was that you kind of had to just win Clark County just barely to win.
01:43:00.000And, you know, you can probably get away with it.
01:43:02.000But this is the reason why Nevada's been going so blue is because it's so hard to win Clark County.
01:43:09.000It's just interesting on the DeSantis Trump intrigue.
01:44:32.000Yeah, also, I mean, look, I'm not saying in any ways that I believe that.
01:44:36.000I just found that so striking because, I mean, you got to be honest, when someone who is a seven-figure contributor to conservative causes a year, you got to pay attention, right?
01:44:46.000You have to listen to it and say, okay, we're testing the metal.
01:44:49.000I mean, look, I just got a text from a top pastor in North Carolina.
01:45:17.000So to me, it looks like I'm just going with what I said the other day.
01:45:22.000On election day, I said, and this is my analysis.
01:45:24.000Nothing I'm descriptive, not normative.
01:45:28.000I said, I think we're looking at another 2016-style primary.
01:45:32.000And I think that there are a lot of people who are either chomping at the bit to announce or a lot of campaigns that are being sort of draft certain people to run.
01:45:43.000And not just DeSantis, but other candidates out there, obviously.
01:46:42.000So, LD 17, the new LD 17, legislative district 17, legislative district 17, Foster Freeze, Foster Freeze, yeah, legislative district 17.
01:46:50.000Uh, Justine Wadsak down there just upset in a big way an establishment guy named Vince Leach, and that is in a uh the outskirts of Tucson and Pima County, and she was under going into election day, she was losing going into election day, and early votes came back and she and she sprung up.
01:47:15.000So, if we use this equation that half the voters voted at the polls, half the voters dropped off ballots, that means she's going to spring up again quite a bit more.
01:47:24.000And I'm looking at the numbers, Charlie, here, and I mean, she was losing, they were losing pretty considerably going into election night by thousands of votes.
01:47:33.000And now, Justine Wadstack, I mean, she's for sure going to be a state senator, it's not a question at this point.
01:47:41.000But the question that we're looking at is using this is like, okay, well, what happened?
01:47:45.000And if half the votes got cast in person and then another half the votes are coming, what does that mean?
01:47:52.000And for Justine, what that means is, I mean, I'm pretty sure she got thousands of votes that night.
01:48:23.000Look, I mean, I'm looking at the Tucson suburbs and these kind of upper, these, let's just say, high-mountain suburbs right here: Dove Mountain, you know, kind of right near higher net worth, if you will, Oro Valley.
01:48:35.000There's actually like a Ritz Carlton up there, they're all within striking distance, Blake and Kerry, in the kind of northern suburbs of Tucson, which goes to show.
01:48:43.000And by the way, the vote totals are super low in some of these, which goes to show a lot of, like, look at this one precinct up here has 322 recorded votes.
01:48:51.000Now, it could just be a small precinct, but all precincts are not created equal here, but yeah, but that's low.
01:48:57.000I mean, I don't care what precinct you're in, 322 is low.
01:49:08.000I don't know Tucson well enough, and I do know that Tucson's weird, and it should be part of Mexico probably still.
01:49:14.000But I will say this: there is a good chance that it's not as bad.
01:49:20.000It won't be a bloodbath in Tucson like they think it will be.
01:49:24.000I think it's actually we're going to gain in Tucson, if not at the worst case scenario, just be net neutral, which is exactly what you need.
01:49:30.000Email us freedom at charliekirk.com and subscribe to the Charlie Kirk Show podcast.
01:49:36.000I'm going to talk about an election trend that I didn't see manifest, which is whether people want to admit it or not, there's a 5% to 10% population out there, only about 5% or 10%, especially in Arizona, especially in Georgia, especially in Tennessee, that are really anti-government types.
01:49:53.000They're libertarians, and they got really animated by the raid on Mar-a-Lago, weaponization of DOJ.
01:50:01.000Do you think we did a good enough job mobilizing the small government libertarian types behind our candidates?
01:50:08.000Because these are guys that they believe in no firearm laws.
01:50:33.000But there's a number of states where, and it wasn't always the margin of difference, by the way, the margin of victory, but it is sizable numbers that I think the GOP certainly, the GOP.
01:50:45.000Everyone knows Dr. Oz wasn't my number one candidate.
01:50:49.000Did you ever hear him talk about guns?
01:50:51.000Did you ever hear him talk about any of these issues that would appeal to libertarians?
01:50:56.000So I think this is actually one of the sparks in the magic of 2010 energy, right, Tyler?
01:51:10.000But one of the sparks of magic in 2010 was that extra 5% to 10%.
01:51:14.000And I'm not one of these people, but I do sympathize with some of them on guns and on civil liberties and on mass surveillance, stuff like that, right?
01:51:22.000Yeah, I mean, you'll sort of Ron Paul was right on how much.
01:51:27.000But that's not a small, that's not a small group of people, right?
01:51:42.000I think Blake did the best job of this.
01:51:44.000He attempted to, that stupid libertarian candidate.
01:51:47.000Blake actually comes from a more libertarian tradition.
01:51:50.000He comes more from that world a little bit more.
01:51:52.000I think he followed a path that a lot of people did, sort of going through their a lot of, and Blake's a millennial, by the way, we were talking about millennial Blake's breaks.
01:52:04.000And that a lot of millennials went through this fiercely anti-government stage or a severely pro-government stage, depending on which ID fell of the Occupy Wall Street movement and the financial crisis.
01:52:16.000And you either went super anti-government or super pro-government.
01:52:20.000And then during the Trump years, kind of had this reawakening of an understanding of, well, you know, okay, we do need a government, and it's really more about who's in control of that government.
01:53:07.000Pennsylvania, Michigan, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
01:53:10.000No other Republican candidate in recent history, since the 1980s, has, since Reagan, right, and HW a little bit because he was on the Reagan's coattails, have been able to win back the upper Midwest and the Rust Belt.
01:53:26.000And I put Pennsylvania in that column because Western Pennsylvania fits into that demographic.
01:53:32.000Donald Trump has a connection with the people of that region.
01:55:57.000There's a real possibility that this place is this election so close for Blake and Mark that one of them loses and one of them wins, but they're only separated by a few thousand votes.
01:56:09.000Ken says, since when do donors determine who can run for president?
01:56:12.000I just tripled my Trump donation this month.
01:56:13.000Millions more like me, Ken from Prescott.
01:56:17.000Yeah, again, it's not the media, the pundits, or the donors who choose the candidate.
01:58:41.000So either you have to believe Kerry's going to win by a lot and Blake's going to lose by a little or win by a little, or you have to believe that Kerry's going to win by a little and Blake's going to lose by a lot.
01:58:52.000And I just, I'm telling you right now, all of the data, I'm telling you, there are existing four or four Republican voters that exist out there that have not yet, their vote has not been counted.
01:59:27.000This is basic logical math here, guys, is that there is likely still 25% of our voters close to it that have not yet had their voice heard.
01:59:38.000And their voice, you know what it's saying?
02:00:30.000Big losers, Charlie and Jack are conveniently out of the country when Trump announces they are afraid to associate with Trump and will not support him.
02:02:15.000So yesterday we held the leadership elections in the Arizona State Senate.
02:02:22.000And so This is how we're winning, even when Maricopa County isn't counting balance.
02:02:28.000We're winning because Warren Peterson from Gilbert, who hails from Gilbert, he's been a long-standing member of the Arizona State Senate.
02:02:37.000He is the understudy for Andy Biggs, who was he took over basically his job when Andy Biggs went to Congress, and he is one of the most conservative members that we have in the state legislature.
02:02:49.000They just made him the Arizona Senate president yesterday.
02:02:53.000And one of the first things he did was he made assignments for committees.
02:02:57.000And guess who is our committee chair in Arizona for elections?
02:03:37.000We're going to have, they're going to announce, I haven't seen anything else.
02:03:40.000And so I want to leave that to this because I'm leaving to everything publicly here.
02:03:43.000But we're going to have some of the most conservative members ever that we've ever seen across the country in the legislature running the state.
02:04:35.000And the future of what Arizona is going to look like with a legislative agenda that's going to, again, just make every other, I think we're going to lead here in Arizona.
02:04:59.000Nancy Pelosi will no longer be Speaker of the House, and that is a great thing.
02:05:03.000In fact, some of the modeling has improved where it looks as if Republicans could potentially have about a seven-seat majority, Tyler, which is a lot better than a two-seat majority.
02:05:13.000Seven to ten is kind of that sweet spot.
02:06:11.000But Arizona 1 is really the one we're waiting around for.
02:06:15.000This drop to you in Maricoba County because that's going to be favorable for David Schweiker, who should be able to pull off the W based off of that return.
02:07:11.000And then Juan Siscamani actually hasn't.
02:07:14.000I think Juan has been called by the AP, but it hasn't been tabulated yet.
02:07:18.000So that really gets us to 217 without even getting into these other races that we're talking about here: Colorado 8 or California 27 or California 22 or Arizona 1.
02:07:29.000And then we might be able to flip one or two of these other ones if more favorable ballots come in.