The Charlie Kirk Show - Maricopa Confidence-Incompetence with Gina Swoboda, Austin Smith, Tyler Bowyer, and Jack Posobiec

00:00:00.000 Hey, everybody.

00:00:00.000 Today at Charlie Kirk Show, we dive to the latest of Arizona, Nevada, and how New York and California might have saved the country.

00:00:07.000 No joke.

00:00:07.000 As always, emailing me, freedom at charliekirk.com.

00:00:10.000 Make sure you subscribe to the Charlie Kirk Show podcast and get your tickets to Amfest, AmericaFest, A-M-F-E-S-T.com.

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00:00:21.000 Tucker Carlson, Steve Bannon, Candace Owens, and more.

00:00:23.000 Amfest.com.

00:00:24.000 As always, email me your thoughts, freedom at charliekirk.com.

00:00:27.000 Buckle up, everybody.

00:00:28.000 Here we go.

00:00:29.000 Charlie, what you've done is incredible here.

00:00:31.000 Maybe Charlie Kirk is on the college campus.

00:00:33.000 I want you to know we are lucky to have Charlie Kirk.

00:00:37.000 Charlie Kirk's running the White House, folks.

00:00:40.000 I want to thank Charlie.

00:00:41.000 He's an incredible guy.

00:00:42.000 His spirit, his love of this country.

00:00:44.000 He's done an amazing job building one of the most powerful youth organizations ever created.

00:00:49.000 Turning point USA. 0.65

00:00:50.000 We will not embrace the ideas that have destroyed countries, destroyed lives, and we are going to fight for freedom on campuses across the country.

00:00:59.000 That's why we are here.

00:01:02.000 Brought to you by the Loan Experts I Trust, Andrew and Todd at Sierra Pacific Mortgage at AndrewandTodd.com.

00:01:11.000 Happy Veterans Day.

00:01:12.000 So thank you, Jack, for serving.

00:01:14.000 Thank you.

00:01:14.000 Appreciate that.

00:01:15.000 So Veterans Day is the day we honor those that have served.

00:01:18.000 Memorial Day is when we honor those that died in service.

00:01:21.000 Is that right?

00:01:22.000 Okay.

00:01:22.000 That's correct.

00:01:23.000 And so thank you.

00:01:24.000 Have a great day, those of you that have off, and I hope Maricopa doesn't take today off.

00:01:27.000 Okay, we are going to get into all things Arizona.

00:01:29.000 We're going to talk about all the drama related to that, but I actually want to talk about some other bigger picture things.

00:01:34.000 Here's some notable non-Arizona news.

00:01:36.000 Let's go around the horn, set the table, then come back because we know it's going to be in Arizona, folks.

00:01:41.000 Yes, and then I'm going to tell you how California probably saved the Republic.

00:01:45.000 Oh, wait, wait, wait.

00:01:46.000 California.

00:01:46.000 That's right.

00:01:47.000 I mean, the left coast.

00:01:49.000 All the amazing patriots in California, all the amazing pastors, all the organizing, everything that happened in California might have actually resulted in the saving of the American Republic.

00:02:00.000 Okay.

00:02:00.000 You got to walk me through this.

00:02:01.000 Okay.

00:02:01.000 So first and foremost, just some interesting palace intrigue.

00:02:04.000 Ron DeSantis has now officially surpassed Donald Trump in the betting market for the 2024 prediction on Predict It.

00:02:11.000 That's not going to hold.

00:02:12.000 I mean, look, we've been talking about the betting markets all week here.

00:02:17.000 And the betting markets, it's just kind of like thumb in the air.

00:02:20.000 All right, I'm going to go with this.

00:02:21.000 Thumb in the air, I'm going to go with this.

00:02:23.000 There's not a lot.

00:02:24.000 I mean, if you're going with the betting markets, you might be buying crypto this week.

00:02:29.000 You know what I mean?

00:02:30.000 That's right.

00:02:30.000 Like, just saying.

00:02:31.000 So that's just one kind of interesting piece of news.

00:02:34.000 Republicans right now sit at 211 House seats that have been called in our favor.

00:02:39.000 We now lead an 11 more.

00:02:40.000 And plus, there's the Joe Kent and Schweiker seat, which both seem likely to flip in our favor.

00:02:45.000 I've been watching Kent very closely.

00:02:46.000 That it's trending positively.

00:02:49.000 It really is.

00:02:49.000 Big time.

00:02:50.000 And Schweikert is, I think he's going to win.

00:02:52.000 That's Scottsdale Cave Creek, Arizona one.

00:02:54.000 I don't see him losing that, especially with these drops.

00:02:56.000 And so that's at least 13 seats, at least, which would mean that Republicans have a six-seat majority and potentially upwards of a seven or eight-seat majority.

00:03:04.000 Now, let me take a pause here.

00:03:06.000 If it was not for California Republicans and conservatives and patriots organizing and running good candidates, Pelosi would still be Speaker of the House.

00:03:18.000 The roads of the majority went through New York and California.

00:03:22.000 And it was the New York map and getting that New York map change.

00:03:24.000 It's huge.

00:03:25.000 And so I just want to encourage all of you in California that said, hey, never forget about us.

00:03:29.000 Don't forget about us. 0.52

00:03:30.000 Not only did we not forget about you, you might have just retired Nancy Pelosi. 1.00

00:03:30.000 You know what? 1.00

00:03:34.000 In fact, you did.

00:03:35.000 Without California, New York rising up.

00:03:37.000 It's kind of fitting, by the way, that it was from California.

00:03:40.000 She's from North California that retired Nancy Pelosi from California for so long.

00:03:45.000 And the states that didn't actually perform, Michigan did not perform.

00:03:49.000 Pennsylvania did not perform.

00:03:51.000 We did not win a consequential flip seat unless I'm missing something in Pennsylvania, Michigan, or Illinois, or Minnesota.

00:03:59.000 So that kind of Midwestern usually in Ohio was very disappointing congressionally.

00:04:05.000 We lost three winnable congressional races there, three.

00:04:09.000 Which at a time where JD Vance wins big, what, 6.6%?

00:04:12.000 You got DeWine winning by 25.

00:04:15.000 Some huge numbers for DeWine, who is, by the way, a huge lockdown guy.

00:04:19.000 And we're not going to forget about that.

00:04:22.000 And at the same time, though, these maps in a lot of these states, Pennsylvania, like I've talked about the map issue there.

00:04:28.000 The Supreme Court threw out the map that the state legislature had written, and they found some professor in California who basically punched something into an algorithm and said, okay, this is going to make the Democrats win.

00:04:39.000 And that's what we're going to do.

00:04:39.000 And it should have been reversed.

00:04:40.000 But what's so amazing?

00:04:42.000 I mean, there were states that underperformed.

00:04:44.000 Pennsylvania, Supreme Court.

00:04:45.000 Pennsylvania underperformed, terrible map.

00:04:47.000 Ohio underperformed.

00:04:48.000 Georgia underperformed big time in the congressional races that were competitive there.

00:04:53.000 And so you kind of take those states together.

00:04:55.000 But who made up the difference?

00:04:57.000 California and New York made up the difference.

00:05:00.000 If California and New York would have performed as horribly as Pennsylvania and as Illinois or as Ohio congressionally, Nancy Pelosi is still speaker. 0.77

00:05:11.000 So Pelosi is going to be retired because of the blue state New York and California remnant that rose up and retired.

00:05:20.000 That's like the resistance.

00:05:21.000 They're spectacular.

00:05:22.000 They're like the underground, like the conservative underground that's like operating under the regime occupied territories, but still able to get these behind victories.

00:05:33.000 Yeah.

00:05:33.000 Like they're gumming up the supply chains.

00:05:36.000 They're messing with stuff.

00:05:37.000 And then every once in a while, it adds up and it adds up and it adds up as we've seen in this battle of attrition that we're in, political battle of attrition, that when it comes to the House, it is about each seat.

00:05:49.000 Long Island, by the way.

00:05:50.000 Long Island is like bright red.

00:05:52.000 And this is Lee Zeldon who decided to run for governor and he made a competitive referendum statewide.

00:05:59.000 He sacrificed his congressional care.

00:06:01.000 He was in a safe seat.

00:06:02.000 He would have been fine.

00:06:02.000 Yeah.

00:06:03.000 He could have stayed there as long as he was.

00:06:04.000 He's being in leadership right now in the Woodlands.

00:06:06.000 That's right.

00:06:06.000 You know, you should run Lee Zeldon for speaker.

00:06:08.000 That'd be interesting.

00:06:09.000 Or maybe even Lee Zeldon for RNC.

00:06:12.000 Or something.

00:06:12.000 I mean, Lee Zeldon deserves all of our thanks, all of our gratitude.

00:06:16.000 We're going to have Lee Zeldon on the program at some point.

00:06:18.000 I've known Lee for some time.

00:06:19.000 I'm not sure.

00:06:20.000 Charlie, what does that mean?

00:06:21.000 So he ran for governor, putting a referendum on Hochul, which all of a sudden made a statewide conversation on crime, on taxes, on inflation, which then really provided air cover for.

00:06:34.000 And it was the rising tide.

00:06:35.000 It was the rising tide.

00:06:36.000 It provided air cover for all of these other candidates that in New York otherwise would have just been kind of picked off one by one by the Driple C. Instead, Lee Zeldon, he distracted resources. 0.96

00:06:49.000 And what happened to the head of the Driple C? 1.00

00:06:51.000 Maloney is done.

00:06:52.000 I mean, he was 10 points.

00:06:54.000 I don't know if they've called that race or not.

00:06:55.000 I believe it was called.

00:06:56.000 Yeah, I mean, that's, they did call the race.

00:06:59.000 So anyway, then you go all the way to California.

00:06:59.000 Okay, cool.

00:07:01.000 California, they're still counting a lot of ballots because that's California.

00:07:05.000 Thankfully, they just called Young Kim's race in Orange County, which is terrific. 0.91

00:07:09.000 Kevin Calvert is ahead in the 41st district in California.

00:07:13.000 Ken Calvert, I should say.

00:07:15.000 Mike Garcia is leading in this 27th House District.

00:07:18.000 Huge.

00:07:18.000 And Kevin Kiley is going to win in the third House District in California.

00:07:22.000 And so in this kind of strange world we live in, when we were like, yeah, Tudor Dixon's going to be governor of Michigan.

00:07:27.000 I'll be the first one to admit, boy, did I misread Michigan.

00:07:30.000 Holy moly.

00:07:30.000 And I'm not saying, of course, there was ballots, mules, and fraud, but you're trying to tell me there's not that in New York, there's not that in California, is that the people in New York and California overwhelmed it and they overcame it is what I'm saying, right?

00:07:43.000 And so.

00:07:44.000 Well, it's also fundamentally, a statewide race is fundamentally different than a house race, right?

00:07:48.000 You're talking about a district race that's only confined to the votes within that district.

00:07:52.000 Yep, that's exactly right.

00:07:54.000 And so the United States House of Representatives is large in part going to be Republican, thanks to two blue states that usually are made fun of, scoffed at, that kind of are the end of jokes like, well, at least you don't have to live in San Francisco or at least live in L.A. You know what?

00:08:10.000 The California Patriots said, we're not going to take it anymore.

00:08:13.000 Which L.A., by the way, I mean, there's about a hair's difference between Caruso and the Democrats.

00:08:21.000 I think she's going to pull it out, but the fact that it's that competitive, you got to point that out.

00:08:24.000 Totally.

00:08:25.000 Okay, so let's get the late.

00:08:26.000 So anyway, I just want to say thank you, thank you, thank you.

00:08:28.000 If you live in New York, thank you guys for rising up, for supporting good candidates.

00:08:33.000 If you live in Long Island, in Long Island, you should guys celebrate this weekend because you delivered a massive blow to the Democrat Party, a blow that the people of Ohio and Michigan and Minnesota were not able to scrap together.

00:08:47.000 And I'm not insulting anyone from those states.

00:08:49.000 I'm just it's a fact.

00:08:50.000 And they say, oh, well, Charlie, there was mules and stuff.

00:08:53.000 You don't think they have those operations in Long Island?

00:08:56.000 Right, but we have to take stock.

00:08:58.000 We have to take stock of where we are.

00:08:59.000 We have to look at victories and there's no substitute for that.

00:09:02.000 That's right.

00:09:02.000 So I just want to compliment and thank everybody in those states.

00:09:05.000 Okay, we're going to talk about Nevada as well with Adam Laxalt.

00:09:09.000 Look, it is the most corrupt county in America, Clark County.

00:09:12.000 And I'll be very honest, it's not looking good.

00:09:15.000 Adam Laxalt is only up, I think, 9,000 votes.

00:09:19.000 This dump last night in Washaw just, I really think it shifted the trajectory a lot.

00:09:23.000 Yeah.

00:09:24.000 It did.

00:09:25.000 Right when the cameras went off, of course, right? 0.96

00:09:30.000 Conservative here says abortion is generally a loser issue for conservatives.

00:09:34.000 It's time to do what Europe has done, put some limits and then move on.

00:09:37.000 Lindsey Graham didn't help us at all, Dave.

00:09:39.000 Look, I just, I'm saying a lot of people are tired of the issue and they want to move on with it, especially Gen Zers. 1.00

00:09:46.000 However, I'm also involved in the culture war, so I'm not going to stop talking, but I'm going to try to persuade people and convince people to be pro-life.

00:09:51.000 I also want to point out, though, that just hold on a second, right?

00:09:56.000 Roe v. Wade was the target of a 30-year campaign by the conservative movement to, number one, lay down the legal foundation to pass heartbeat bills, wait for technology to catch up with where we knew the truth was, get the president, by the way, president of the United States, Donald Trump, who had the appointees on the Supreme Court that were able to finally look,

00:10:21.000 give Roe v. Wade the accurate legal review that it needed and then send it to the curb.

00:10:28.000 And so the takedown of Roe v. Wade was this massive victory for the conservative movement.

00:10:33.000 It shows a concerted effort that spanned an entire generation in the movement, and we shouldn't diminish that.

00:10:39.000 And we also, we understand that there was backlash.

00:10:41.000 We get that, right?

00:10:42.000 But we also need to point out that this was a huge movement, and it shows what a unified force the conservative movement can be when we all get on the line and we all unite behind one solid issue.

00:10:54.000 And look, we know that Donald Trump, right?

00:10:58.000 Everybody knows I'm a Trump supporter, but everybody knows that Donald Trump isn't exactly the most pro-life, super movement, conservative, evangelical kind of guy out there, right?

00:11:06.000 New Yorker, right?

00:11:08.000 But at the same time, he came to the movement and it was transactional.

00:11:12.000 And he said, look, if this is what you want, if these are the judges that you want, I will give them to you.

00:11:16.000 And George W. Bush didn't do that.

00:11:18.000 And nobody else could have beaten Hillary in 2016. 0.99

00:11:21.000 She would have been president and you would never have those justices on the court right now. 1.00

00:11:25.000 Look, Republicans are going to have to figure out some messaging on abortion. 1.00

00:11:28.000 And Carrie Lake, I think, did some of the best because she's so talented. 0.98

00:11:32.000 Most are not.

00:11:32.000 Okay, other updates.

00:11:34.000 Here's why you can't have ranked choice voting.

00:11:36.000 Ranked choice voting is the worst.

00:11:37.000 This is so frustrating.

00:11:38.000 Protect democracy, but allow ranked choice voting. 0.81

00:11:41.000 Kelly Shabaka, she won the most votes.

00:11:43.000 She won a plurality of votes in a four-way race with 44%.

00:11:48.000 So she won the race, right, Charlie?

00:11:49.000 Not in Alaska. 0.99

00:11:50.000 But she had the most votes. 0.99

00:11:51.000 Doesn't matter. 0.85

00:11:52.000 You have to get 50 plus one or else you go to the second round of ranked choice voting.

00:11:58.000 The what?

00:12:00.000 So, in Alaska, the way it works, and this was designed and implemented because thanks to Project Veritas, we know this. 0.94

00:12:06.000 Lisa Murkowski put together a coup in Alaska and basically said that if you do not get 50 plus one, then it goes to the second round.

00:12:19.000 Now, some people say, Well, Charlie, to be fair, Warnock won his race, but he didn't get more than 50%.

00:12:24.000 Well, that's a runoff system.

00:12:26.000 This is not even allowing for a runoff, which I would support.

00:12:29.000 If there is a runoff now between Murkowski and Shabaka, then great, that's fine.

00:12:34.000 Let's do it.

00:12:35.000 Shabaka would win by 20 points.

00:12:37.000 But it would be a run, would a runoff with the ranked choice voting again?

00:12:41.000 No, no, no, no.

00:12:43.000 Well, that's the point: is that there isn't instead of a runoff, which is annoying but understandable, right?

00:12:49.000 Because some people say, Well, hold on a second.

00:12:51.000 Like, Georgia.

00:12:52.000 Like, Charlie, you know, isn't a runoff system helping you in Georgia?

00:12:55.000 Of course, it is.

00:12:56.000 Yes, it is, because Herschel Walker did not get a plurality.

00:12:59.000 Warnock got a plurality.

00:13:01.000 The point is this: this now goes to this goofy, algorithmic second and third round where they have to tabulate the votes.

00:13:09.000 And I'll be very honest, I do not even understand how this is tabulated, where it depends on whether or not people ranked Shabaka or if they did a second candidate.

00:13:21.000 Shabaka's hope in this whole tabulation process is that if a vast majority of people only ranked Shabaka and left the rest of the ballot completely blank, that's her hope.

00:13:34.000 Now, in the congressional race, which is equally as frustrating, Democrat Mary Palota got 47% before the runoff, while Palin and Begich are right around 25%.

00:13:47.000 If all Republicans stayed loyal this cycle, this will go to the Republican Party, but that didn't help happen in the special election, and it probably won't happen here.

00:13:54.000 Therefore, Democrats are probably going to win the Alaska congressional seat.

00:13:59.000 And so, basically, it looks as if, unless there's some sort of surprise in Alaska, thanks to Mitch McConnell's $9 million, Lisa Murkowski is going to hold on to her Senate seat despite losing a plurality of votes in the first round of ranked choice voting with four other competitors.

00:14:15.000 Think about it. 0.55

00:14:16.000 Not only is Kelly Shabaka popular, she's so popular that she got 44% against four competitors, and that's likely not going to be enough.

00:14:26.000 So, he spent $9 million in Alaska.

00:14:29.000 How much did he spend here in Arizona?

00:14:30.000 Almost in the Senate against $50,000 to a million.

00:14:32.000 Sort of double-check.

00:14:33.000 Almost nothing.

00:14:34.000 Arizona.

00:14:34.000 Yep.

00:14:35.000 And Blake Masters is right on the brink of losing by 10,000, winning by 20,000.

00:14:40.000 We don't know until the final ballots are dropped.

00:14:42.000 Okay.

00:14:43.000 And so this is where that's where it stands in Alaska right now.

00:14:46.000 It looks like the Democrats are going to hold on to the House seat and they're going to.

00:14:52.000 And by the way, beating an incumbent, that's.

00:14:54.000 It's a big deal.

00:14:55.000 It's very hard to beat an incumbent.

00:14:57.000 And I mean, look, Laxalt is learning that in Nevada.

00:14:59.000 This is a great year for incumbents.

00:15:00.000 It just was.

00:15:04.000 Charlie Kirk here.

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00:16:04.000 Look, there is something interesting, though, Jack.

00:16:06.000 One of the reasons why the polls were so off in some of these states is that the Democrats have actually figured out a way to outperform polls by mastering vote by mail.

00:16:16.000 That's right.

00:16:16.000 That's exactly right.

00:16:17.000 It's in the same way.

00:16:18.000 And Charlie, you had the point the other day where in the Trump era, we had become accustomed to sort of seeing a poll and then adding three that's that was my built-in algorithm.

00:16:31.000 Five points.

00:16:31.000 And that was like a built-in bias that we all kind of had.

00:16:34.000 And that was the Trump effect.

00:16:36.000 But we've also found that that doesn't really exist when Donald Trump is not on the ballot.

00:16:41.000 We saw that in 2018.

00:16:42.000 We're seeing that in 2022.

00:16:43.000 It just is what it is.

00:16:44.000 He has a way to connect with a huge swath of this country in the Midwest, in the South, in the Rust Belt, obviously, that other candidates just have not been able to replicate.

00:16:57.000 And it just is what it is, right?

00:16:58.000 And you can talk about that at length as to why.

00:17:01.000 But we're not seeing the same turnout numbers when he is on the ballot and when he isn't.

00:17:06.000 And so because of that, those polls, and we said before, the polls for this election actually were pretty good in many cases.

00:17:16.000 Now, some outlets out there, I think maybe we should take another look at and determine whether or not we want to continue relying on them.

00:17:24.000 And I think that RCP, by the way, has a great accountability project that they're working on right now, where they're going to be going through and then ranking and stacking all of the pollsters by their accuracy, using the final outcomes, weighting it by the last few elections, and then seeing where we are.

00:17:40.000 And I think that's great.

00:17:40.000 I think that's fantastic.

00:17:42.000 But at the same time, the Trump effect that we were thinking about.

00:17:46.000 So, okay, that works and Trump's on the ballot.

00:17:49.000 But this vote by mail effect that they've been able to demonstrate here now through at least two consecutive national elections, all right, that's real and it has to be confronted.

00:18:00.000 That's right.

00:18:01.000 So, just kind of some other things that I want to touch on that are interesting.

00:18:04.000 Other races across the country and other Lauren Boebert is looking better and better.

00:18:08.000 Praise God.

00:18:08.000 Lauren Bobert now has a 2,000-vote lead.

00:18:11.000 No, that's not right. 0.97

00:18:12.000 1,100 vote lead.

00:18:14.000 Okay.

00:18:14.000 So she's a much more solid lead than the other day.

00:18:17.000 Yeah, she's running away with it.

00:18:19.000 Sorry, MSNBC. 0.94

00:18:20.000 Yeah, they would have loved that.

00:18:22.000 Well, what's happening is the same thing that's happening in Arizona, right?

00:18:24.000 Which is that you have what's happening at Lauren Boebert.

00:18:27.000 What's up, Tyler?

00:18:28.000 Hey, how are you doing, Jack?

00:18:29.000 Good morning.

00:18:31.000 Get your golf in this morning.

00:18:32.000 Yeah.

00:18:32.000 Not with Ping.

00:18:33.000 Not with Ping.

00:18:35.000 We're going to tell the Ping story a little bit later.

00:18:37.000 Tonight.

00:18:38.000 Tonight is a thing story.

00:18:38.000 Tonight is a thing.

00:18:39.000 Oh, tonight.

00:18:40.000 The audience that was last night was following along.

00:18:42.000 I mean, it was wild.

00:18:42.000 I was getting memes like until come back tonight.

00:18:46.000 I'm not kidding.

00:18:47.000 I love this audience because I was getting memes until like literally until it was like this.

00:18:54.000 I woke up to nothing but ping golf ball members.

00:18:56.000 Like nothing but like the wrecking ball ping meme that I retweeted is like the best thing I've ever seen.

00:19:02.000 I've never seen anything crazy.

00:19:03.000 We're having fun.

00:19:04.000 We're deliberately not going to explain this.

00:19:06.000 We have a continuation of that story.

00:19:08.000 I think you can ask me questions about it.

00:19:10.000 I haven't even told the guys the whole story yet because later.

00:19:13.000 Oh, right.

00:19:14.000 Tonight.

00:19:15.000 But yeah, no, I actually have just was getting diving into this.

00:19:20.000 We have, we need to start.

00:19:22.000 We're going to cover today, I think, all of the remaining ballots that exist out in Arizona, where they are, where they need to go, what percentages we are estimating because we're going through and brick by brick, going, okay, here are the tranches of votes that are left.

00:19:36.000 What percentage can we guesstimate, can we estimate based off with factual evidence to back it up of why we think that we can win some of these?

00:19:46.000 We know we keep saying that this is why we keep saying over and over and over and over, Caroline's going to be your governor, is because what's left has the capacity to put her over big time.

00:19:56.000 The big question is, where's Blake?

00:19:59.000 Where's Mark Fincham?

00:20:00.000 A lot of people are saying, where the heck is Mark Fincham at?

00:20:03.000 That guy is one of the noisiest guys ever.

00:20:05.000 He's hunkered down, wading down.

00:20:07.000 I know he's tweeting a little bit, but not much.

00:20:09.000 Because, look, I mean, this is a close race.

00:20:11.000 This is a very close race.

00:20:14.000 And the reality is this, is that everything will depend on what's left.

00:20:18.000 We can get into it whenever you're ready to get into it, Charlie.

00:20:21.000 Yeah, I just want something that we're going to cover this out.

00:20:23.000 I just want to wrap one other thing.

00:20:25.000 And I've been just bragging on our amazing California Patriots that basically, you know, delivered the entire House of Representatives for us.

00:20:34.000 It's amazing.

00:20:34.000 So let me just finish a couple of our pieces of news here.

00:20:36.000 The Los Angeles mayor's race.

00:20:38.000 I'm afraid that Rick Caruso does have a tiny lead, but I think Karen Bass is going to take it.

00:20:42.000 There's just so much ballot harvesting there in Los Angeles.

00:20:46.000 Even with Katy Perry's vote? 0.99

00:20:47.000 Yeah, even with Katy Perry's vote.

00:20:50.000 Chris Pratt, too.

00:20:51.000 I'll give him props for that.

00:20:52.000 Well, Chris Pratt.

00:20:53.000 Oh, it's not a big ask to go vote for Rick Caruso.

00:20:55.000 Okay.

00:20:56.000 Chris Pratt, who did vote for Trump in 2016.

00:20:58.000 If you go, that's right.

00:20:59.000 If you go to Los Angeles, man, it is a dystopian nightmare.

00:21:03.000 And these celebrities, I think, are starting to recognize and realize it.

00:21:05.000 And Snoop.

00:21:06.000 But you never got Snoop.

00:21:07.000 Do you know what Carrie Lake has to do, though? 1.00

00:21:08.000 She has to say they are not welcome here in Scottsdale.

00:21:11.000 No, these people will come here just like Will Farrell went to Georgia.

00:21:15.000 No tax credits, no red carpet.

00:21:17.000 We won't welcome you.

00:21:19.000 I mean, we'll treat you with dignity, right?

00:21:21.000 Because you're a person, but like, we're not going to all of a sudden act as if it's the coolest.

00:21:25.000 You have no place here.

00:21:26.000 And by the way, one of the great things never to happen in Arizona, and I think Shooter was the one that actually helped knock this down in the legislature.

00:21:32.000 Don Shooter, if I'm not mistaken, was when he killed the film tax credit bill in Arizona.

00:21:39.000 They bundled a bunch of money for them this last session.

00:21:42.000 Are you kidding me? 1.00

00:21:43.000 Well, Carrie Lake's not going to put up with that. 1.00

00:21:45.000 That's coming to an end. 1.00

00:21:46.000 There's going to be zero Hollywood in the state of Arizona.

00:21:49.000 Yeah, so what we're talking about here is why Georgia is now all of a sudden this bluish, reddish state, purple state, is that these red state governors who can't see the forest from the trees, they say, oh, wow, look at all this economic development we could get.

00:22:00.000 And we have all this land where we could bring in Hollywood and they could film all these movies.

00:22:04.000 Well, then you bring in the entire Hollywood infrastructure.

00:22:07.000 That's the LGBTQIA mafia. 1.00

00:22:09.000 They all buy homes here.

00:22:10.000 They then do fundraisers here.

00:22:12.000 They take over restaurants.

00:22:13.000 They start take, I mean, you're talking about hundreds of thousands of people.

00:22:16.000 That's a massive employment agency, and they're 90% Democrat.

00:22:19.000 It's a bigger problem than that, Charlie.

00:22:22.000 And it's really, and this transverse, this is not just in the media and Hollywood and movie making industry, the film industry.

00:22:32.000 This is any industry where you bring people here, you take advantage of the tax credits and the land and the good weather.

00:22:41.000 This is what happened in Georgia.

00:22:43.000 Guess where all those people still report to?

00:22:45.000 Where are all the bosses at?

00:22:48.000 In Los Angeles.

00:22:49.000 They're in Los Angeles.

00:22:50.000 They're in New York.

00:22:51.000 They're in wherever.

00:22:52.000 So you now have taken a bunch of people who are maybe like moderate Democrats, maybe they're liberals.

00:22:58.000 They move there.

00:22:58.000 They hire a bunch of conservatives.

00:23:01.000 And these people may be conservatives or historically conservatives.

00:23:04.000 And then they report to Democrats outside the state.

00:23:07.000 So you basically, it's despotism is what it is.

00:23:11.000 It's industrial despotism that happens in Arizona and Georgia, right?

00:23:15.000 This is what they're trying to do.

00:23:16.000 This is happening in Arizona with startups.

00:23:18.000 This is what's happening in Arizona and tech companies.

00:23:21.000 The startups and tech companies are moving their mid-tier or low-wage jobs to Arizona.

00:23:27.000 And their bosses are, guess where?

00:23:30.000 In the Bay Area.

00:23:31.000 Yep.

00:23:32.000 And so guess what?

00:23:33.000 They don't change their politics.

00:23:34.000 Why?

00:23:35.000 Because they still report to left-wing lunatic that lives in San Jose or lives in San Francisco.

00:23:40.000 This is what Elon Musk is dealing with right now.

00:23:42.000 Yeah.

00:23:42.000 Elon Shooter.

00:23:43.000 This is what Elon's dealing with.

00:23:44.000 Exactly. 0.91

00:23:44.000 He's like, oh, I moved to Texas, but it doesn't matter because I still have lunatics that are Travis County. 0.91

00:23:49.000 I think that's called Travis County, right? 0.85

00:23:50.000 Travis County?

00:23:51.000 Yeah, that's correct.

00:23:51.000 Has become bluer because of all these tech companies that move there.

00:23:55.000 So look, we're all for pro-economic development, but instead of moving and transplanting people from California, Carrie Lake needs to go to the ASU business school and basically say, I'm going to employ you guys first.

00:24:06.000 And those guys will become more right-wing because they'll see a Republican governor prioritizing like ASU graduates instead of saying Caltech and UC Berkeley people.

00:24:16.000 Is that right?

00:24:16.000 Yeah.

00:24:17.000 So the governor has to go.

00:24:18.000 And this is what Doug Ducey did not have the cajones to do.

00:24:21.000 And this is what the Chamber of Commerce has completely failed.

00:24:24.000 And I've blasted them online for this: instead of saying, Yeah, just move all your blue guys over here. 0.98

00:24:31.000 No, that's not what we want.

00:24:32.000 We don't want any of them here.

00:24:33.000 Leave them there. 0.99

00:24:34.000 Keep paying them their crappy wages in San Jose territory up there. 1.00

00:24:39.000 Leave them there. 0.99

00:24:41.000 Hire Arizonans.

00:24:42.000 If you want to move here, you have to hire Arizonans. 1.00

00:24:45.000 That's the deal.

00:24:46.000 Well, that's exactly right.

00:24:47.000 So that's the deal.

00:24:48.000 If Dropbox wants to open an office in Awatuke, you can't bring people from across the country.

00:24:52.000 He has to hire ASU grads or Grand Canon University grads.

00:24:55.000 Or we'll build a wall at the Colorado River.

00:24:56.000 Yeah, that's right.

00:24:58.000 And so it's not this transplant thing, right?

00:25:01.000 No more.

00:25:01.000 Yes.

00:25:02.000 And that's how all of a sudden these corridors start to change.

00:25:05.000 Like Chandler and Mesa and Gilbert start to change.

00:25:06.000 Okay.

00:25:07.000 That's the biggest question with Chandler because people are looking at this map that we were going over yesterday, and I got messages that said, like, holy crap, I didn't realize Chandler went so blue.

00:25:15.000 Yeah, that's right.

00:25:16.000 You know why Chandler went so blue?

00:25:17.000 They opened Price Corridor.

00:25:19.000 Look it up off the 101.

00:25:20.000 I've driven by it many times.

00:25:22.000 All these different companies went through.

00:25:23.000 I think MasterCard is there too.

00:25:24.000 All of them brought in, and it's despotism that's there.

00:25:27.000 It's on the street, right?

00:25:28.000 It's right there.

00:25:29.000 It's right exactly right there.

00:25:30.000 It's south of the 2020.

00:25:33.000 And they built all this.

00:25:34.000 They have all these different companies there in there. 0.99

00:25:36.000 And they all report to these losers in California.

00:25:40.000 So Toyota, Voya Financial, Northip Grumman, Defense Contractor, GM Financial, and you have Expedia. 0.94

00:25:48.000 They all have a corridor.

00:25:50.000 And so it does.

00:25:51.000 Okay, so let me just finish one other thing here really quick.

00:25:55.000 And so let's go here to this one.

00:25:58.000 Okay, I want to address this because some people say, you know, younger voters cast the deciding votes.

00:26:02.000 Hold on a second.

00:26:03.000 We're going to talk about first and foremost the impact Turning Point has had.

00:26:06.000 Millennials were a plus 38-point reliable Democrat voting demographic a decade ago before Turning Point was on the scene, right, Tyler?

00:26:16.000 Plus 38.

00:26:17.000 Now they are plus two.

00:26:19.000 So 36 point movement.

00:26:21.000 That is a measurable turning point action outcome.

00:26:26.000 Okay, but they say here in Politico.

00:26:27.000 Exit polls show that young voters are motivated by abortion, climate policy, and gun control.

00:26:33.000 Polling data in recent years show Gen Z are the most secular, that's true, and openly gay of any living age group.

00:26:39.000 That is true. 0.58

00:26:40.000 They are the gayest generation in history. 1.00

00:26:42.000 They are also increasingly likely to be raised by one parent.

00:26:45.000 That's true because of many different reasons.

00:26:47.000 And to believe that single-parent households are not a bad thing for society. 1.00

00:26:52.000 Wow.

00:26:52.000 Thank you for that.

00:26:54.000 One quick thing here.

00:26:55.000 GOP has a massive political problem on its hands.

00:26:57.000 While Republicans made gains amongst minority voters, they'll have to address the rising threat of a politically active generation with a little connection of traditional values. 0.92

00:27:04.000 I disagree with a lot of this.

00:27:06.000 First and foremost, they're also the most suicidal, alcohol-addicted, psychiatric, drug-addicted, depressed, unhappy, anxious generation in history.

00:27:14.000 And so they're either going to figure it out or they're all going to kill themselves using drugs and alcohol.

00:27:18.000 I hope that doesn't happen.

00:27:19.000 And so they're going to anchor themselves to tradition and through antiquity, not through modernity, over a period of time.

00:27:26.000 But here's the thing.

00:27:27.000 Do you know Gen Z is actually 10 points less Democrat than millennials were at the very same age?

00:27:32.000 And so this is a mass psyop by the TikTok people, by the alphabet mafia, and by all these different people. 0.56

00:27:32.000 Yep. 0.56

00:27:40.000 Gen Z is 10 points more conservative than millennials were.

00:27:40.000 Okay.

00:27:44.000 The most incredible number I saw, which just took my breath away, is millennials are now only two points in favor of Democrats.

00:27:53.000 That is like unbelievable.

00:27:56.000 This is like 30 to 38 year olds.

00:27:58.000 That's also a good idea.

00:27:59.000 That's right, right.

00:28:00.000 Millennials are getting older, man. 0.53

00:28:01.000 I'm the younger of millennials.

00:28:02.000 Right on the older side.

00:28:03.000 Yeah, so you have a 34-year-old.

00:28:05.000 The fact that millennials are now only two points in the Democrat direction is shocking.

00:28:11.000 It should just make you say, oh, wow, things can change.

00:28:13.000 They moved 36 points over a course of 15 years, 10 to 15 years.

00:28:20.000 That's turning point doing its job, by the way. 0.95

00:28:22.000 And so, yes, Gen Z is very miserable. 0.97

00:28:26.000 They're very secular, but I do believe that there can be a big move. 0.74

00:28:32.000 There can be.

00:28:33.000 Okay, email us your thoughts.

00:28:34.000 Freedom at charliekirk.com.

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00:29:16.000 Email me your thoughts, freedom at charliekirk.com. 0.94

00:29:18.000 Millennials becoming a battleground demographic.

00:29:22.000 That is really good news for the future.

00:29:24.000 Yeah, Gen Z, we have a lot of work to do. 0.95

00:29:26.000 I got one parent that emailed me and said, Charlie, why is Gen Z so liberal?

00:29:30.000 My son is 21 years old.

00:29:31.000 It's, I joke around like, why don't you do your job?

00:29:33.000 Like, I can only do so much from the outside.

00:29:36.000 We're going to try our best here.

00:29:37.000 And we are going to move that window.

00:29:39.000 But according to CNN, millennials only voted for Democrats by two points nationwide.

00:29:44.000 That is a great sign for the future.

00:29:49.000 Charlie, I'm 66 years old, and I'm telling you right now, turning point is the most important political movement in America.

00:29:55.000 It is the key to changing the political climate.

00:29:57.000 Your generation will save this country.

00:29:57.000 Great job.

00:29:59.000 Honestly, I believe my eight and five-year-old grandkids will have a great life because of your movement.

00:30:03.000 That's a really special email.

00:30:04.000 Very nice.

00:30:05.000 Thank you, Charles.

00:30:06.000 I appreciate that.

00:30:08.000 Big movements with millennials, everybody.

00:30:10.000 You have a 36-point movement over a decade.

00:30:13.000 Someone's doing their job.

00:30:14.000 Tyler is tabulating the ballots remaining here in Arizona, which is very helpful.

00:30:18.000 And we're going to kind of go through all that.

00:30:19.000 I have a pretty good idea of it, but honestly, I didn't do the math last night.

00:30:23.000 I just took a second and did something non-political for like an hour, which was nice.

00:30:29.000 So here's another couple interesting things and other ballot measures that we haven't spoken about.

00:30:33.000 Legalized sports gambling in California lost terribly.

00:30:38.000 Isn't that interesting?

00:30:39.000 Legalized sports gambling in California lost pretty badly.

00:30:43.000 Prop 30, a measure to tax the rich to fund electric car credits in California, failed.

00:30:50.000 Okay, explain this one to me.

00:30:51.000 How does that fail in California?

00:30:52.000 I'm telling you, California has some fight left in it, man.

00:30:56.000 I mean, the story of this cycle is how the Midwest underperformed and California overperformed.

00:31:02.000 And look, this was a sinister plot, by the way, of the crony capitalist company Lyft to try to get taxpayers to get them to fund their electric car fleet, basically.

00:31:12.000 It was a crony capitalist handout.

00:31:14.000 Prop 31 upheld the state's ban on flavored tobacco products.

00:31:20.000 California legalized abortion as a constitutional right, but they upheld a ban on flavored tobacco products.

00:31:29.000 So you can kill your child right before they're born.

00:31:33.000 But if you're going to have a scented cigarette, I don't know. 0.99

00:31:35.000 I don't know really. 0.94

00:31:36.000 So I guess it's like you have to, you can kill them, but they have to be healthy after they're born if you choose to have them. 0.95

00:31:46.000 I lost. 0.98

00:31:46.000 I thought I had it there, Charlie. 0.98

00:31:47.000 I thought I had it.

00:31:48.000 I thought I had it, and that's why I lost it.

00:31:50.000 In New Hampshire, a bid to call a constitutional convention failed by a two to one margin, which is interesting.

00:31:56.000 A lot of chatter about constitutional conventions throughout the years, right, Tyler?

00:31:59.000 That got obliterated.

00:32:01.000 And so a lot of this doesn't make sense, but that's welcome to ballots and referendums and propositions.

00:32:10.000 Email me directly, freedom at charliekirk.com.

00:32:12.000 David says you're doing the wrong messaging to MAGA patriots.

00:32:15.000 Pennsylvania has 600,000 more Democrats.

00:32:17.000 How many new Republicans were registered by the RNC?

00:32:19.000 Trump turned out the vote.

00:32:20.000 Just look at the turnout nationwide.

00:32:22.000 The message should be county-by-county registration drives.

00:32:25.000 600,000 vote deficit will be difficult for any Republican or Democrat to overcome.

00:32:29.000 What he's saying is that if everyone who voted for Trump or if one fourth of people who voted for Trump in 2020 also showed up for this Senate race, Fetterman would have been defeated.

00:32:38.000 It's that simple.

00:32:40.000 100%.

00:32:41.000 It's a turnout game, especially the midterms.

00:32:43.000 And the reality is this, is that the GOP, this is everything that we were harping on at Turning Point Action.

00:32:49.000 This is why we were a GO TV operation.

00:32:52.000 We were doing Super Saturdays.

00:32:53.000 We did Charlie.

00:32:55.000 We did upwards of 35 Super Saturdays per month in the Keith.

00:33:00.000 And that doesn't count all the other events we did, too.

00:33:01.000 Yeah, and that's just Super Saturdays.

00:33:03.000 It's just get out the vote events.

00:33:04.000 That's what you have to do in order to turn out your voters.

00:33:06.000 You have to do more of that.

00:33:07.000 We did less of that.

00:33:08.000 Not enough of it.

00:33:12.000 The end of the year is right around the corner, and it's time for you to consider a change in your investment plan.

00:33:16.000 This is Charlie Kirk, and I strongly recommend you go right now and see my friends at PAX to review your investments.

00:33:23.000 They are the one firm I know that focuses on biblical, responsible investing and does not force you to invest in companies that literally attack Christian values.

00:33:33.000 If we want religious liberty in our country, we have to stop investing in companies that are trying to suppress our freedoms.

00:33:39.000 I love PAX Financial.

00:33:41.000 They manage some of my money.

00:33:42.000 I trust them.

00:33:43.000 And that's why before the end of the year, you need to text the word Charlie to the number 74868.

00:33:49.000 That's Charlie to 74868.

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00:33:54.000 So take out your phone, text the word Charlie to 74868.

00:34:00.000 I trust them with my money, and I think you should trust them with your money.

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00:34:13.000 So, Jack, you got some breaking news.

00:34:16.000 Yeah, we do have breaking out of Florida, even though I know we're all eyes on Arizona.

00:34:20.000 But look, you know, I like to kind of scan the horizon, see what's going on.

00:34:24.000 And Marco Rubio did not expect to see breaking out of Marco Rubio today, but we do have breaking out of Marco Rubio because Marco Rubio has just released a statement calling for the Senate GOP leadership vote next week should be postponed.

00:34:41.000 He continues.

00:34:43.000 First, we need to make sure that those who want to lead us are genuinely committed to fighting for the priorities and values of the working Americans of every background who gave us big wins in states like Florida.

00:34:58.000 Charlie, what does that mean?

00:35:00.000 What could he be referring to?

00:35:01.000 He's going after the turtle, man.

00:35:03.000 And in support of who?

00:35:04.000 Who could Marco Rubio be supporting?

00:35:06.000 Rick Scott, but they actually don't like each other.

00:35:07.000 Hilariously.

00:35:08.000 But there's a little bit of a trend.

00:35:09.000 But DeSantis hates Rubio and Rubio hates Scott and Scott hates DeSantis.

00:35:12.000 It's this triangle.

00:35:13.000 But it feels like there's a little Florida camaraderie there.

00:35:16.000 I don't know.

00:35:17.000 I'm sure.

00:35:18.000 I mean, look, Rick Scott's great.

00:35:19.000 I mean, Rick Scott comes on our show.

00:35:21.000 We disagree on things, and Rick Scott's a business guy.

00:35:23.000 Rick Scott will pick up the phone and talk to you.

00:35:25.000 Healthcare guy, right?

00:35:26.000 Yeah, he made money in health insurance.

00:35:28.000 I mean, look, Rick Scott is not.

00:35:29.000 Let me say this again.

00:35:30.000 Rick Scott is not a transactional Washington, D.C. liberal.

00:35:33.000 He's not.

00:35:34.000 Rick Scott is somewhere between a chamber of commerce and movement conservative, like the arithmetic mean between those two things.

00:35:41.000 Yeah, exactly.

00:35:41.000 Right?

00:35:42.000 Like if he's just, he like straddles.

00:35:43.000 I totally get what you mean by that.

00:35:45.000 I'll take that over Mitch McConnell.

00:35:45.000 And that's good.

00:35:47.000 Are you kidding me?

00:35:48.000 And Rick Scott will never lie to you either.

00:35:50.000 To me, it looks like Marco Rubio's statement is it's not an endorsement of Rick Scott, but keep in mind it says, we want to make sure.

00:36:01.000 We need to make sure.

00:36:03.000 And that's interesting.

00:36:04.000 We need to make sure.

00:36:05.000 So it's, but it's definitely a crack in the turtle shell, if you will.

00:36:10.000 Yeah.

00:36:10.000 I mean, look, it'll be really interesting to see kind of how some of these senators come down, like newly elected Eric Schmidt in Missouri, where he's going to vote.

00:36:20.000 I feel like you would go for Mitch.

00:36:22.000 I mean, he campaigned on the idea of not.

00:36:24.000 I mean, Hawley is not.

00:36:26.000 Mike Lee.

00:36:27.000 Yeah, Holly had a statement.

00:36:28.000 We'll see.

00:36:28.000 Rand Paul, it's going to be really tough for Rand Paul to oppose Mitch just because they're from the same state.

00:36:32.000 It's just like really, really hard.

00:36:35.000 But yeah, look, I mean, if Marco Ruby, of all people, is saying that, what I think is...

00:36:40.000 Hawley did blast GOP leadership for the midterm showing.

00:36:44.000 What I think is bubbling up is kind of a third type of Republican, which is a really good thing.

00:36:48.000 So you got the Chamber of Commerce, old bull types that are just a waste of time, right?

00:36:53.000 You got, for example, a lot of them sent.

00:36:56.000 Whatever business community wants, they get.

00:36:57.000 Yeah, they tend to be south of the Mason-Dixon line and also really in kind of the upper Midwest.

00:37:01.000 A lot of Kansas, a lot of Dakotas, a lot of Oklahoma.

00:37:04.000 South Carolina.

00:37:04.000 So it's reliably Republican states.

00:37:06.000 But there's kind of this third type of Republican that has kind of been kind of created, which is people that are starting to realize their base of voters are so disconnected from the old bulls and they do want to kind of straddle the line and they're going more in that direction.

00:37:19.000 It's like they're not populists themselves by nature, but they understand.

00:37:23.000 It's like Populism Inc. almost.

00:37:25.000 Yeah, I mean, and I'll take it.

00:37:26.000 And it's like, it's like they kind of, they get that populism is the, and the working class is.

00:37:30.000 But it is Marco, right?

00:37:31.000 I mean, it is, it is Ron Johnson.

00:37:34.000 Ron Johnson is not a chamber guy.

00:37:35.000 Well, maybe Marco now.

00:37:37.000 But I mean, what I'm saying, though, is Ron Johnson and Marco are probably pretty upset right now.

00:37:40.000 Not Ron Johnson.

00:37:41.000 No, definitely.

00:37:42.000 Ron Johnson's amazing.

00:37:43.000 Ron Johnson went to war against Pfizer, AstraZeneca, McGurna, and Johnson ⁇ Johnson, and he had the courage to do it and then live to tell about it and win decisively in Wisconsin, right?

00:37:52.000 And so I think there is kind of this pushback against the kind of old way of doing D.C.

00:37:57.000 And I mean, Marco, of all people doing that, Marco has a lot of power in D.C. He's very well respected in the Senate.

00:38:03.000 He's paid his dues.

00:38:04.000 He's been there for well over a decade.

00:38:06.000 Is that right?

00:38:06.000 Yeah, he won in 2010.

00:38:07.000 He's been there now for 12 years.

00:38:09.000 He's an OGT party.

00:38:10.000 Yeah, he's been there for 12 years.

00:38:12.000 What is your thoughts on this, Tyler?

00:38:15.000 Well, I mean, I think about this, and we're talking about how this overlays the future for 2024.

00:38:22.000 And the map that we're looking at, we've talked about this quite frequently on your show, is that the map comes down to essentially four states, depending upon what happens to Pennsylvania.

00:38:32.000 Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Georgia.

00:38:36.000 And it's so interesting.

00:38:38.000 It's so intriguing you bring up Ron Johnson because what could happen in Arizona might be the opposite of what happened in Wisconsin, which is that you have Ron Johnson win, right?

00:38:49.000 And have this big voice on the Senate side and Michael's loss.

00:38:54.000 Pretty convincingly, too.

00:38:55.000 And we're going to have likely Carrie Lake win and a potential for a Blake Masters loss barely, right?

00:39:03.000 And so I think this is an indictment.

00:39:06.000 And I think this is part of where I think a lot of the feelings exist because Marco Rubia was kind of involved with the chamber guys and he was gang of A for sure.

00:39:14.000 He's converted through the Trump.

00:39:15.000 He's one of the Trump conversion eras, right?

00:39:17.000 I totally agree.

00:39:18.000 Because he's also listening to his voters in Miami-Dade County.

00:39:21.000 Because he's listening, right?

00:39:22.000 Because that's who he's been his entire thing.

00:39:23.000 He started as a moderate.

00:39:24.000 Well, he's legitimate.

00:39:25.000 He started as a moderate movement, moderate movement.

00:39:28.000 Yeah, he's just, they just like go flops back and forth.

00:39:30.000 But I think that what you're seeing is this is that, you know, people are looking at this and they're looking at this very pragmatically and going, look, we can't live in this world where like Mitch McConnell doesn't give Florida any money and like be okay with it.

00:39:43.000 We can't live in this world where like Wisconsin gets like underfunded and be okay with it.

00:39:48.000 We can't live in this world where Arizona gets completely ignored and be okay with it if we want to win for the future.

00:39:54.000 So yeah, we should delay leadership elections until we know who our freaking senators are, first and foremost, and get those extra votes so that the public has general confidence in who we like moving forward because more Mitch McConnell is not going to make the movement excited.

00:40:09.000 I do have another take on this that isn't necessarily political, but this is not a press statement.

00:40:15.000 This is not an interview that he gave.

00:40:17.000 It's a tweet.

00:40:18.000 It's on twitter.com.

00:40:20.000 That's where he posted this thing.

00:40:22.000 He's potentially changing the future of our republic based on something that he posted on Twitter. 0.97

00:40:29.000 So if you're not on Twitter, if you're not seeing that for all the people that want to, oh, Elon is doing this and Twitter is stupid and don't worry about it. 0.94

00:40:36.000 Charlie, you talked about it before.

00:40:38.000 This is where the narrative, this is where the news setting, this is where the news making, this is where the people who kind of start narratives.

00:40:48.000 This is where it is.

00:40:49.000 It's all the actions here.

00:40:50.000 It's right here.

00:40:51.000 So we're expecting ballot drops for Arizona later tonight, right?

00:40:55.000 Now, what's going on in Pima?

00:40:56.000 Pima's like this really strange veterans day.

00:41:01.000 So if they said they are definitely dropping today.

00:41:04.000 Yeah, they better be working today.

00:41:05.000 Like we're trying to balance that or are we saying that?

00:41:08.000 No, they're working today.

00:41:10.000 I mean, we don't have an exact time and there's been no update on when they're going to do this, but our expectation is that the 290,000 votes that they were trying to signature verify have been verified.

00:41:10.000 They should be.

00:41:23.000 Look, I'll tell you this, Charlie.

00:41:25.000 It basically comes down to two counties, Maricopa and Pima.

00:41:28.000 Maricopa, let me work backwards.

00:41:31.000 So Pima County, historically, if you understand Arizona, I tweeted about this.

00:41:34.000 If you understand Arizona, Pima County, that's a blue county, has always really been offset by the rest of the state.

00:41:40.000 That's how it's always worked.

00:41:41.000 Pretty much the numbers play out almost exact.

00:41:44.000 I think that we could edge out some extra votes out of Pima, meaning we may not.

00:41:47.000 We can't drops.

00:41:48.000 We may not win Pima County as a Republican Party. 1.00

00:41:51.000 Carrie's going to win. 1.00

00:41:52.000 We win as we win as a percentage.

00:41:54.000 So you brought this up.

00:41:56.000 Anything sub-20% lost in Pima County is essentially a win for us.

00:42:01.000 And that's what we have to look at.

00:42:02.000 And so you got to cut through the noise of every going like, oh, no, I can't win.

00:42:06.000 Like Pima County.

00:42:07.000 No, no, no, no.

00:42:08.000 Like, no, like, this is Pima County.

00:42:10.000 You know, you got your Cochises, you got your Mojave's, you got your Pinals that are going to make up for that. 0.87

00:42:16.000 Maricopa County is where everything comes down to.

00:42:19.000 Maricopa County is the purple, tossed up county at this point, right?

00:42:25.000 Where if we win Maricopa County, we pretty much win the whole state.

00:42:29.000 It doesn't matter.

00:42:30.000 And so now we're within the margins of, can we get close enough to be able to pull off an upset?

00:42:35.000 Or can we win Maricopa County? 0.99

00:42:37.000 It looks like Kerry Lake can win Maricopa County. 1.00

00:42:39.000 That's why she's going to win outright.

00:42:41.000 And Blake is not going to quite get there, but can he pull off an upset with a lift from across the country?

00:42:47.000 So here's the hope for Blake, okay?

00:42:49.000 The hope for Blake, and it is realistic, okay?

00:42:52.000 This is not wishful thinking.

00:42:54.000 It is a trek.

00:42:56.000 The hope for Blake is that these drop-off ballots are 68 to 72% carry maybe even more.

00:43:06.000 Our hope, and I think there's a lot of data to support this, that these are the trumpiest ballots we have in the entire county.

00:43:13.000 Is that fair to say?

00:43:15.000 And there's a good chance that that's true.

00:43:16.000 Here's one of the reasons why, guys, is because about 120,000 of Kerry's voters in the primary voted this way.

00:43:24.000 That's that alone.

00:43:24.000 Okay?

00:43:26.000 120,000 of the most loyal Kerry Lake voters in the primary walked in their ballot on election day.

00:43:32.000 People do not dramatically change their behavior between August and November.

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00:44:44.000 So, look, there's ground to be made up in Pima.

00:44:47.000 Blake's hope, and look, it's completely a mystery.

00:44:53.000 Can you get Kerry and Blake's in-person Election Day Maricopa number?

00:44:56.000 Yeah, so this is the number.

00:44:58.000 So, Trump, let's go over Trump 2020 real quick.

00:45:00.000 So, Trump 2020's turnout number, I don't have the exact number in front of me, but I'm working off of memory off of what I looked at before.

00:45:09.000 He basically won Election Day.

00:45:11.000 I believe it was 57%.

00:45:13.000 Remember, he was coming in and he was winning like 57%.

00:45:17.000 And he was dipping below, but still winning.

00:45:23.000 I think he ended up winning about 51% of the election day drop-offs.

00:45:30.000 And this was a very competitive time period, right?

00:45:32.000 This is, you know, and again, I don't know what that is.

00:45:35.000 I don't know if that number is exact.

00:45:37.000 I'm going to get, I'll get updates on that.

00:45:39.000 I do know that the separation was a little bit less than 7%.

00:45:43.000 That's all that matters, really, for our estimation, is that the breakage and what we're calling breakage between Trump's Election Day vote win versus Trump's Election Day vote drop-offs was, let's call it 7%, a little bit less.

00:46:00.000 That means that how we look at this, we go, we use that as a measuring stick.

00:46:06.000 Kerry Lake overperformed Trump on Election Day turnout pretty significantly, right? 0.99

00:46:11.000 That's helpful to her.

00:46:12.000 That's really good.

00:46:13.000 You're starting from a better spot, essentially.

00:46:16.000 Blake Masters outperformed Trump on Election Day.

00:46:20.000 That is good too, because you're starting from a better spot.

00:46:23.000 Yep. 0.99

00:46:23.000 Kerry doesn't need as much space to win. 0.99

00:46:26.000 Kerry would have to underperform Trump significantly on Election Day drop-offs after having outperformed him on Election Day in person in order to lose.

00:46:38.000 The likelihood of that happening is so low, it verges on the scale of fraud.

00:46:45.000 Like the likelihood of that happening, to me is inconceivable.

00:46:50.000 Well, but here we know this by precincts, though.

00:46:53.000 We see precincts that Kerry is barely winning because we know that there were significant amount of drops. 1.00

00:46:58.000 Yeah, she's going to blast. 1.00

00:46:59.000 She's going to blast.

00:47:00.000 All of a sudden, you're going to see this surge.

00:47:01.000 I mean, you're going to see all those Scottsdale districts.

00:47:03.000 You're going to see all these North Phoenix districts.

00:47:05.000 You're going to see all these East Valley districts just go red, Yeah, look. 0.69

00:47:10.000 I mean, if D.C. Ranch doesn't vote for Kerry Lake, we should just put a lock on that gate and not let those people.

00:47:14.000 I know a lot of people that live in D.C. Ranch, and I can tell you right now, they're not Katie County.

00:47:18.000 They're not Katie Hobbs fans up there.

00:47:19.000 They're not.

00:47:20.000 But this goes back to Blake.

00:47:21.000 So the focus really becomes Blake, right?

00:47:23.000 And so you start to look at this term breakage.

00:47:25.000 And I'm using breakage as the term.

00:47:27.000 I don't know if it's actually the proper term, but I like it, so I'm going to use it.

00:47:29.000 Slippage is another good word.

00:47:31.000 Breakage between Blake's breakage between his day of on in-person election results and then his day of drop-off.

00:47:44.000 So, what we don't know is what does day of drop-offs look like in Maricopa County.

00:47:48.000 Now, if Blake, we do know Blake's day of in-person, and it was high.

00:47:54.000 He was doing very well.

00:47:55.000 He was in the 60s, right?

00:47:57.000 If he can remain closer to that, you know, he has to remain in the 60s, essentially, between his breakage with that day of drop-offs, then he has a shot.

00:48:08.000 He's a real shot.

00:48:10.000 If he does not do that, Charlie, then he doesn't have a shot.

00:48:13.000 Then he's going to lose by, you know, not very many votes.

00:48:15.000 10 or 12,000 votes.

00:48:17.000 It probably will be that.

00:48:18.000 It'll probably be very money.

00:48:22.000 With no money and Blake winning in different areas that Trump didn't win in.

00:48:26.000 So, really quick, I want to give a Nevada update.

00:48:28.000 Our team has been, let's just say, ferociously crunching numbers in Nevada.

00:48:33.000 So, this is how corrupt Clark County is.

00:48:35.000 We can't get a good number on how many ballots are actually left in Clark County.

00:48:39.000 So, by some estimates, people say there are 57,000 votes left in Clark County.

00:48:44.000 Other people say that it's possibly lower, right around 30,000, maybe even as low as 25,000.

00:48:49.000 We will know.

00:48:50.000 Adam Laxalt has a 0.97% lead right now.

00:48:54.000 I believe that's a 9,000-vote lead, if I'm not mistaken.

00:48:58.000 For all of you keeping scored home, yeah, that's a 9,000-vote lead.

00:49:02.000 And so, but however, it depends on how many votes are left.

00:49:07.000 There's 22,000 from Washu.

00:49:09.000 I'm mispronounced that, 7,000 from Douglas and 2,000 from Carson.

00:49:12.000 Douglas and Carson are more rural.

00:49:14.000 Look, for Catherine Cortez-Masto, Washoe, thank you, Washoe County.

00:49:20.000 It's a nail biter.

00:49:21.000 I'd say I'd probably give, I'll be honest, I don't want to be cynical.

00:49:24.000 I'm probably going to give the favorite to the Democrat in Nevada just because of the amount of ballots that are out there, because of the nonsense that they do in Clark County.

00:49:33.000 But it is by no guarantee.

00:49:35.000 Now, some people say, well, Cortez-Masto is going to win by 4,000 or 5,000.

00:49:39.000 It all depends on how many ballots are left in Clark County.

00:49:41.000 We're getting conflicting reports.

00:49:43.000 My guy in the Laxalt campaign says that there's way lower than 57,000 votes left in Clark County.

00:49:49.000 It's more like 30,000.

00:49:50.000 That changes the model significantly.

00:49:53.000 So it's all going to come down to how many ballots are left.

00:49:56.000 And look, this is one of the problems with some of these polls that showed Adam Laxalt up three, Adam Laxalt up four.

00:50:01.000 Democrats flew in a ton of operatives, I guarantee it, that are experts in ballot harvesting.

00:50:06.000 And they just went door by door.

00:50:08.000 And they said, you work for the MGM Grand, get us our ballot.

00:50:11.000 You work for the Venetian, give us your ballot.

00:50:13.000 You work for this restaurant, give us your ballot. 0.91

00:50:15.000 The culinary unions run Vegas.

00:50:18.000 This is the legacy of Harry Reid.

00:50:20.000 It's why they named the airport after him.

00:50:22.000 Look, Nevada does this every time.

00:50:23.000 They just see what they need to get it across the finish line. 0.99

00:50:26.000 And magically, all these culinary votes kind of go in.

00:50:30.000 And look, this is one of the reasons why Blake has an uphill battle when you don't control the recorder's office: it's not even necessary like fake ballots and machines from China or whatever.

00:50:40.000 It also is the tabulation bias.

00:50:43.000 So this is a question, Tyler.

00:50:46.000 I'm told there's 90,000 ballots in adjudication.

00:50:48.000 Is that right?

00:50:50.000 So that, so that I tweeted out this.

00:50:50.000 Yeah.

00:50:50.000 Okay.

00:50:53.000 I'm waiting on confirmation on how many ballots right now are being held up in adjudication.

00:50:58.000 So we're going to go through this.

00:51:00.000 I'm telling you guys, you guys are going to become very familiar with the word adjudication because this is what I think we're going to end up talking about if we have a close race for Blake and Mark Kelly.

00:51:10.000 Is that all we're going to be talking about is adjudication through the weekend, through early next week, because every adjudicated ballot is going to end up mattering.

00:51:18.000 So essentially what happens is ballots can get, and I'll explain it and we'll re-explain this a zillion times.

00:51:24.000 Ballots that have any issue.

00:51:26.000 They're crinkled, they have marks, they have random marks, they have mess ups, uh, mess ups with write-ins.

00:51:32.000 These ballots can all end up in the adjudication pile, meaning that the machines don't scan.

00:51:38.000 And wouldn't you know it?

00:51:39.000 We know the machines don't scan very well.

00:51:41.000 So, so this isn't that misinformation and online rumors.

00:51:46.000 Nope, I saw it firsthand, Jack.

00:51:48.000 But no, no, no, I heard on NPR.

00:51:49.000 No, I saw that.

00:51:50.000 Hyla Bloy and Charlie Kirk were spreading online rumors about ballot issues in Maricopa County.

00:51:57.000 We were just talking.

00:51:58.000 Okay, Jack.

00:51:59.000 We were just sharing our personal experiences.

00:52:02.000 Which, by the way, were then backed up by the officials of the Commission.

00:52:05.000 But literally, Maricopa County Center activities.

00:52:07.000 Literally came out and said exactly what you that's why it went viral.

00:52:11.000 Again, whatever.

00:52:12.000 But these adjudicated ballots, these adjudicated ballots that are bouncing back from these machines, we were, I was told early, and I don't want to spread rumors, but I was told there's over 90,000 of them.

00:52:23.000 If that's true and accurate, guys, that's a ton.

00:52:27.000 But is that just in Maricopa?

00:52:28.000 Maricopa County.

00:52:30.000 Now, here's what could be the bad news: is that it could come out of those same day drops.

00:52:34.000 It could have come out of not same-J drops.

00:52:39.000 Well, what do you mean?

00:52:41.000 Pre-election day drop.

00:52:43.000 Oh, you mean they could be worse ballots.

00:52:45.000 So the question is, is out of that 90K, how many of those were pre-election day drop-offs versus 90,000 in adjudication?

00:52:53.000 I will tell you, I don't have the historical averages in front of me, but knowing this, since I've been doing this for a long time and I have a brain, yes, that's very high.

00:53:01.000 It's very high.

00:53:02.000 At one point, someone said 90K a day.

00:53:05.000 And then I was like, oh my gosh, we are going to get the election stolen from us.

00:53:09.000 But the reality is this, is that it looks like the number is 90K that ended up in adjudication.

00:53:17.000 And a lot of these get figured out, right?

00:53:19.000 Okay, so that's good to know.

00:53:20.000 They look at these, they get scanned, they get figured out, they get corrected, and they move them through.

00:53:26.000 But if that number is still that high, then that's the thing.

00:53:31.000 So the ask that I made today was, because we can't know what party these are from, because these are just random ballots, right?

00:53:39.000 What we can do is we can try to figure out where they're from.

00:53:42.000 So where they're from at least gives us some indication.

00:53:45.000 Are these downtown Phoenix?

00:53:47.000 Are these not downtown Phoenix?

00:53:48.000 Are these that more rural?

00:53:49.000 Are these more suburban?

00:53:50.000 Where are they from?

00:53:51.000 So I asked for a breakdown by legislative district by precinct if we can get it.

00:53:56.000 We'll see.

00:53:57.000 Email us freedom at charliekirk.com in Nevada.

00:54:00.000 You got to win Washoo County.

00:54:01.000 You have to.

00:54:02.000 And it is, this is what Rich Barris says.

00:54:06.000 It's highly unlikely, almost impossible to win Nevada without Washoe.

00:54:09.000 We're trying to see what's left with election day vote because it does look like there may be more in Nye and Elko at least, but I cannot get a straight answer on totals.

00:54:18.000 First heard about 13,000 election day perhaps left in Nye.

00:54:21.000 But Election Day in Washoe or male breaking back to Laxalt, which absolutely can happen, looking at the party breakdown is necessary from Rich Barris.

00:54:29.000 So there's a little bit of hope there.

00:54:30.000 But man, Clark County.

00:54:32.000 There you go.

00:54:34.000 What happens in Clark County, stays in Clark County?

00:54:36.000 Literally, that is their tagline.

00:54:38.000 What happens in Vegas stays in Vegas?

00:54:40.000 Yeah, no, I know I quote tweeted that, and that was the one that got Election Integrity Partnership.

00:54:44.000 Very upset with me.

00:54:45.000 Jack wrote questions about Clark County.

00:54:49.000 Yeah, I am.

00:54:49.000 That's right.

00:54:50.000 I just, I love these people that are in the media that act as if there's not a corrupt person that has ever run an election in the history of the country.

00:54:56.000 I just think it's in the past, but not current.

00:55:00.000 It's as if all of our fallen nature just disappears the moment you get into accounting.

00:55:04.000 That's right. 0.98

00:55:05.000 Everything is corrupt in America except the Catholic Church is corrupt. 0.99

00:55:05.000 They're perfect. 0.99

00:55:08.000 Everything is corrupt. 1.00

00:55:09.000 The evangelical church is corrupt. 0.99

00:55:10.000 Or the hierarchy. 0.98

00:55:11.000 Meanwhile, there's no eyes.

00:55:12.000 No, york.

00:55:15.000 There's no eyes on California where things are getting more and more corrupt.

00:55:18.000 No, but their narrative is that everything is corrupt.

00:55:22.000 If you step foot in a ballot counting room, you're an angel.

00:55:25.000 You're a Federalist 51, everybody.

00:55:27.000 If all men were angels, government would not be necessary. 0.78

00:55:29.000 Boom.

00:55:30.000 Email us freedom at charliekirk.com.

00:55:33.000 Put that in box three.

00:55:35.000 Dude, this is a mess.

00:55:42.000 What was that thing?

00:55:43.000 Yeah, tell me what she says.

00:55:44.000 Charlie, do you want to walk through that 62?

00:55:47.000 Yeah, go ahead.

00:55:48.000 Tyler has to take an important call.

00:55:49.000 He'll tell us the content of the call in a second.

00:55:52.000 What's your act?

00:55:53.000 You had that breakdown last night of the models you were looking at and the 62% threshold.

00:55:59.000 You remember that piece?

00:56:01.000 I wonder if you could walk through us for us, the 62% threshold and what the importance of that is for Kerry and for Blake.

00:56:10.000 Well, for Kerry, it's less important, right? 0.85

00:56:12.000 So for Kerry, Carrie has, I mean, this is why Carrie's going to be governor. 1.00

00:56:16.000 She has so much flex in these joints. 0.89

00:56:18.000 And it's so obvious who the characteristic of these voters are that Kerry could she could win 52% of remaining ballots and still become governor.

00:56:27.000 We're modeling anywhere between 68 to 75%.

00:56:30.000 There's a chance she overperforms the drop-offs, too.

00:56:33.000 That's in the cards.

00:56:34.000 And there's a reason why they're holding back these ballots is because I think they want to create a narrative and set in that Mark Kelly is one and no matter what, it's not close and kind of this whole thing.

00:56:42.000 So you think that this Operation Slow Walk that we're seeing right here actually has more to do though with the Senate seat than the governor.

00:56:49.000 I think with both.

00:56:50.000 I also think they want to deprive Carrie Lake of a resounding victory.

00:56:54.000 Well, they don't want to give her a mandate.

00:56:55.000 Yeah, they don't want to give her a mandate. 0.99

00:56:56.000 They also don't want her to be able to have a well-publicized television address. 0.56

00:57:00.000 You know, they want her to go on television and say, well, I'm not the governor yet, but I'm 100% going to win.

00:57:05.000 Like they want to kind of cast.

00:57:06.000 She should have had her election speech, her victory speech three nights ago.

00:57:10.000 Yeah, I mean, they're going to kind of cast this mirage of doubt, right?

00:57:14.000 And so look, we're going to, we're going to see, and by the way, if they were actually processing ballots in real time, if they were processing ballots in real time, Kerry would be up like 90,000 votes and Blake and Mark would be going up and down and up and down and up and down.

00:57:28.000 And we would sit down and see on election night.

00:57:31.000 Yeah, instead, they want to kind of bake in this like Mark Kelly's up 100,000 votes and it's kind of just like sticking there.

00:57:36.000 Meanwhile, there's this huge, I mean, for example, if they counted all 290,000 ballots today, no matter what, Blake would be within like 10,000 votes.

00:57:44.000 Right.

00:57:45.000 That's just, it's just the basic, like the basic.

00:57:46.000 Well, that's what we had on election night, that it would either be 10,000 up or 10,000 down right there.

00:57:51.000 The question is Pima and the rurals and all of that.

00:57:53.000 It's as if they're kind of withholding this surge of votes of the best voters we have in the whole state, the best voters we have in the entire county.

00:58:01.000 And they're just kind of being like, we hope it's not going to be necessary to add them until we have to add them.

00:58:05.000 And they'll just be like, whatever. 0.81

00:58:06.000 Okay, Kerry might get across the finish line.

00:58:08.000 Now, even look, I mean, this is, you watch MSNBC, right, with Steve Kornacki.

00:58:11.000 He last night was like, look, for all of you guys that are cheering for Katie Hobbs, I just want to talk.

00:58:15.000 Freudian.

00:58:16.000 Yeah, exactly.

00:58:16.000 Very Freudian.

00:58:17.000 Cheating for Kerry Lean.

00:58:18.000 Very Freudian.

00:58:19.000 I got to call you on that one.

00:58:20.000 Yeah, Freud was wrong about all sorts of stuff.

00:58:21.000 Very wrong.

00:58:22.000 But cheering for Katie Hobbs. 0.98

00:58:24.000 Totally demonic, by the way.

00:58:25.000 Yeah, exactly.

00:58:26.000 Totally. 0.92

00:58:26.000 And for those that are cheering for Katie Hobbs, just to let you know that these ballots are probably going to make Kerry Lake governor. 0.92

00:58:32.000 Like even Stephen Kornacki is saying it on MSNBC.

00:58:34.000 And people are like, what do you mean?

00:58:35.000 You're threatened democracy.

00:58:36.000 He's like, well, I don't want you guys, because he knows his viewers are not going to be very happy with this.

00:58:39.000 Yes, he was the number one person.

00:58:40.000 So some people have a good question, right?

00:58:42.000 They say, Charlie, how on earth is it that Blake Masters is down 115,000, but Kerry Lake is down 26,000?

00:58:49.000 And look, that's a good question.

00:58:50.000 In Arizona, Arizona is not necessarily a baked in red state, but in Arizona, they like their Republican governors.

00:58:56.000 We do.

00:58:57.000 And in fact, there is a large portion of the Arizona population that finds comfort in split ticketing.

00:59:05.000 They like telling their friends that they don't only vote for Republicans and Democrats.

00:59:09.000 They kind of say, okay, Carrie's going to probably...

00:59:12.000 Yeah, it also keeps them in their own view.

00:59:15.000 Maverick, the Federalists.

00:59:16.000 It keeps them like anchored to moderation as if they're not allowing the excesses of radicalism to take over the country.

00:59:22.000 There's a lot of that energy in Arizona.

00:59:25.000 And also, you know, you just have to put it out there.

00:59:27.000 Carrie Lake has massive name ID in Maricopa County and in Arizona writ large, but she was known how many years? 0.92

00:59:35.000 30 plus years on 30.

00:59:38.000 She was award-winning.

00:59:38.000 And not just that.

00:59:39.000 She was so well respected.

00:59:41.000 She's the top anchor.

00:59:42.000 There are, when we were doing our grassroots events, there's people that come up to me and they tell me stories that they grew up like eating cereal at an eight-year-old watching Carrie Lake do the local news.

00:59:51.000 Like they went to bed watching Carrie Lake do specials because she was morning and evening anchor.

00:59:51.000 Wow.

00:59:55.000 She was like a special floating anchor.

00:59:57.000 So that's something that you can't even quantify that.

01:00:00.000 You can't buy it.

01:00:01.000 You can't, you know, and for Blake Masters, who we love Blake, but he was a first-time candidate.

01:00:07.000 There was a ton of money spent against him.

01:00:07.000 There was a first time.

01:00:09.000 A ton of money spent against him.

01:00:10.000 And that's just facts.

01:00:11.000 That's just facts.

01:00:12.000 And so you have all these different things kind of coming together.

01:00:15.000 And so I actually believe this.

01:00:18.000 I believe, and by the way, the polling shows this, which is interesting that the polling was actually somewhat accurate.

01:00:22.000 Yeah.

01:00:23.000 That there is a 90, there's a 90,000 vote delta.

01:00:26.000 So as the votes are counted right now, there's 90,000 more people that voted for Mark Kelly, but also voted for Kerry Lake.

01:00:34.000 And look, we knew that there were going to be Lake Kelly voters, which is when I was giving advice kind of to the top of, you know, the top big picture with Blake.

01:00:42.000 It's like, you need to run as closely to Kerry as possible.

01:00:45.000 But you saw Kerry do this.

01:00:46.000 Well, that's the other thing.

01:00:47.000 And that's why they're holding back these ballots, these 290,000 ballots, because they were at election day.

01:00:53.000 Remember, not all ballots, how do I say this without it getting misquoted by Media Matters?

01:00:58.000 Not all ballots are casted when the same things are happening at the same time.

01:01:02.000 Is that fair to say?

01:01:03.000 Well, ballots are cast at different times.

01:01:04.000 Yeah.

01:01:05.000 Yeah.

01:01:05.000 So what I'm saying, though, is that a ballot cast closer to election day is going by definitionally have Blake in a greater light.

01:01:12.000 After the debate, he had air cover on television.

01:01:15.000 He was campaigning around with Carrie Lake.

01:01:17.000 Inflation was crushing people.

01:01:19.000 Then early ballots, people are like, forget Blake.

01:01:21.000 We're just going to reelect Mark Kelly.

01:01:22.000 Right.

01:01:23.000 So the closer you get to Election Day, the better it is for Blake.

01:01:27.000 And so Mark Kelly's team knows this.

01:01:29.000 Katie Hobbs knows this, right?

01:01:31.000 The Maricopa County recorder knows this, right?

01:01:33.000 So these are tighter ballots.

01:01:35.000 And so if you think about it, if you're going to drop off on election day, you didn't fill that out three weeks ago and then be like, yeah, then I'm going to wait.

01:01:41.000 Now you probably have it on your counter.

01:01:43.000 And then the night before you fill it out, you kind of go through the props.

01:01:46.000 That means that those ballots were filled out at a time where Blake was hotter than cooler.

01:01:51.000 Right.

01:01:52.000 Now with Kerry, like Katie Hobbs has no path whatsoever if you look at it.

01:01:55.000 And Katie Hobbs knows this.

01:01:56.000 She's looking at these precincts. 0.94

01:01:58.000 She's probably already crying and thinking up an excuse because Kerry Lake with vote by mail already is winning almost every single one of the swing precincts. 0.92

01:02:05.000 And if you go through some of the other swing precincts, she's down like two points here, two points. 0.94

01:02:09.000 She's down as Secretary State, too, right?

01:02:12.000 Yes.

01:02:12.000 I mean, look, thankfully.

01:02:15.000 But that's the other question, right?

01:02:16.000 Is that amazingly, I did not have this on my bingo card, is that Mark Fincham is actually pulling ahead of Blake Masters.

01:02:26.000 So Mark Fincham is actually doing 6,000 votes better than Blake Masters.

01:02:32.000 Okay.

01:02:33.000 Isn't that interesting?

01:02:34.000 Well, I mean, Mark Fincham had a lot of media run against him, but it really was Blake Masters that had the paid media that was really dumped on his end without, and we have to say this again, and this goes back to the Marco Rubio tweet, without any response from the outside, from groups outside of the state, from these big money groups outside of the state.

01:02:55.000 They did not come in the same way they did in like Alaska or some of the other states for Blake Masters.

01:03:02.000 Yes, that's right.

01:03:03.000 And so, look, we have a pretty significant population here of people that are going to split ticket.

01:03:13.000 But as you get closer to election day, the amount of split ticketers decreases dramatically, right?

01:03:18.000 And so Democrats know this.

01:03:19.000 Democrats know that this is not a blue state, okay?

01:03:22.000 So they know that any apparent lead that they have, regardless of the ticket, is going to be evaporated if there's still 500,000 ballots left on the table.

01:03:30.000 They know that.

01:03:30.000 So they're doing these selective drops to try to get people to say, oh, wow, well, maybe they have a chance or maybe we can call it early.

01:03:36.000 And that's when the adjudication thing really comes into play, right?

01:03:39.000 So if you have tabulation incumbency, if you're able to all of a sudden decide what ballots go into adjudication and the race is artificially closer because you guys are dropping certain ballots in a certain way, then all of a sudden, if you, for example, if you put one out of three ballots into adjudication, nothing's stopping them from doing that.

01:03:59.000 And is there, do they have the ability to select the location for that?

01:04:07.000 So for example, and I don't want to get, again, spitballing, brainstorming, and accusing, but do they have the ability to say, we're going to put these ballots in because we think they're more heavily R versus ballots that are more that are more heavily D?

01:04:24.000 No.

01:04:25.000 So technically, and this is where we have election judges and poll observers.

01:04:29.000 Technically, they're only supposed to put it into adjudication if the ballot, if the machine rejects it.

01:04:33.000 Right.

01:04:34.000 Okay.

01:04:34.000 But I mean, what does that mean, right?

01:04:36.000 I mean, machines are rejecting all sorts of things, right?

01:04:38.000 Tyler was standing right there.

01:04:39.000 So are they running through it two or three more times?

01:04:41.000 Are they trying to fix the machine?

01:04:43.000 Or is it just rejecting it?

01:04:44.000 And they're putting these are, this is where all of a sudden there's a huge amount of mystery into how the ballots themselves are counted.

01:04:50.000 Now, rest assured for Carrie, that's not going to be enough, okay?

01:04:53.000 So even at the most conservative estimates of the 290,000 ballots that are remaining, the most conservative, okay?

01:05:00.000 If you say that Kerry Lake is only going to win 58% of them, right?

01:05:04.000 You could do the math right here in real time, right?

01:05:06.000 So if you say Kerry Lake is only going, it's not going to happen.

01:05:10.000 So 58% of it, right?

01:05:10.000 Okay.

01:05:13.000 So that's 169,000 ballots, right?

01:05:16.000 169 for Kerry.

01:05:18.000 And that means that if it was 290, 130 for Katie Hobbs, okay? 0.82

01:05:23.000 That means that Kerry Lake still takes the lead.

01:05:25.000 Okay.

01:05:26.000 So it's just, it's just not going to happen.

01:05:27.000 She'll be fine.

01:05:28.000 Because you're already starting to see people out there.

01:05:28.000 Yes.

01:05:30.000 Oh, Kerry Lake, big miss. 0.76

01:05:33.000 Trump came in. 1.00

01:05:34.000 Charler Kaye came in.

01:05:35.000 Poso was the best.

01:05:37.000 Are they saying that?

01:05:38.000 I've started to see, not from the big names yet, but you see it out there on Twitter.

01:05:42.000 You see at these, you know, Kerry Lake all that went in, lost.

01:05:45.000 I'll FedEx them a invite to Kerry Lake's inauguration.

01:05:48.000 We'll do it.

01:05:49.000 And they won't have seats.

01:05:51.000 They'll have to stand the whole time.

01:05:52.000 Email us your thoughts, freedom at charliekirk.com.

01:05:56.000 So look, we also have a fair amount of questions, obviously, still coming in with Nevada, the great state of Nevada.

01:06:04.000 And so let's go here.

01:06:06.000 He says, look, Rich Barris says, I'm not going to hope for election day.

01:06:10.000 He says this.

01:06:11.000 That would just be gravy.

01:06:12.000 I'm really hoping Laxalt wins the last election day mail drop by the margin he won it by one drop.

01:06:19.000 Independence broke for him and it netted him nearly 1,000 in 1.4,000.

01:06:23.000 It was a crazy margin.

01:06:24.000 Tyler, what do you have to share with us?

01:06:26.000 Everybody's feeling good.

01:06:28.000 Good times, Mike.

01:06:29.000 Thanks.

01:06:29.000 Yeah.

01:06:30.000 Everyone's feeling good.

01:06:31.000 Carrie Lake is marching to Veterans Day parade today.

01:06:35.000 So, you know, she's the, she's going to be our next governor and things are just looking great.

01:06:41.000 I mean, I'll tell you, like when we break down these numbers again, and we didn't really get into the numbers and we're going to get more fiercely into them tonight, depending upon what drops happen today.

01:06:49.000 Because look, every single one of these drops that happens, the closer we get to, I mean, we get into Nevada territory, like you're talking about, which is like every single vote and single percentage for Blake.

01:07:01.000 Especially for Blake, but even for Kerry, you know, and so, I mean, things are looking great for Kerry.

01:07:07.000 These Maricopa Day of drops, if they mimic what Trump got, just that what Trump got, she's going to win convincingly.

01:07:18.000 If they're above that, which is where she was trending, she was trending like 10 points above Trump on election day. 0.66

01:07:22.000 She really was.

01:07:23.000 I want everyone to understand this.

01:07:25.000 Carrie Lake is a special, special human being.

01:07:29.000 She is well loved.

01:07:31.000 She's really well liked.

01:07:32.000 She's nowhere near disliked.

01:07:33.000 And we looked at the map last night with Charlie, and she's winning in many places that Trump did not win.

01:07:41.000 That's right.

01:07:42.000 It's possible she gets 70 plus percent of these drops, Tyler.

01:07:45.000 I actually just have breaking news.

01:07:46.000 What?

01:07:47.000 So I just have the data.

01:07:49.000 It's breaking news within Geek World here.

01:07:52.000 I just have the data that's polled.

01:07:53.000 Of four or four Republican voters, Republicans that vote all the time, there are 351,000 of those people left that still have not voted and recorded a vote in Arizona.

01:08:03.000 How do we know that?

01:08:04.000 But how do you know who's voted and hasn't voted?

01:08:04.000 We have the data.

01:08:07.000 Because the data exists.

01:08:08.000 It's public.

01:08:09.000 Wait, there's 351,000 four out of four that have not yet voted in Arizona.

01:08:14.000 That's 71% of the remaining Dallas are left.

01:08:17.000 That's the best news you're going to get all day.

01:08:19.000 Can you please reiterate that news?

01:08:21.000 That's rather heartwarming.

01:08:23.000 Let me actually make sure what time this was.

01:08:26.000 This was yesterday, actually.

01:08:28.000 So this could have been whittled down slightly.

01:08:31.000 But as of yesterday, just before the Maricopa County drop, 351,000, what we call it, Republican Party in the bank votes had not yet been cast in Arizona.

01:08:45.000 No, no, not yet been tabulated.

01:08:46.000 Tabulated or cast.

01:08:48.000 Meaning, like they haven't been reported, recorded.

01:08:51.000 Meaning that these are four or four Republican voters, your go-to voters.

01:08:55.000 Now, not everybody votes.

01:08:56.000 What's a four or four voter?

01:08:57.000 A four or four voter will let you down sometimes.

01:08:59.000 There's a percentage of that, right?

01:09:00.000 But four or four voters.

01:09:01.000 What does it mean with that?

01:09:02.000 They voted four times out of the last four elections and they're registered Republican.

01:09:06.000 So that's like a super wireless vote.

01:09:10.000 It doesn't count independents like me that don't like the Republican Party.

01:09:13.000 No, but these are domestically voted for these are like your core.

01:09:16.000 These are your core voters.

01:09:17.000 These are your core Republican voters.

01:09:19.000 351,000 yesterday had not yet voted.

01:09:23.000 As of yesterday.

01:09:24.000 As of yesterday, there were 500 and some odd thousand votes.

01:09:27.000 Folks, that's why we say no black pills in the Charlie Kirk stream.

01:09:31.000 I mean, there's no black pills straight up here whatsoever.

01:09:35.000 That doesn't necessarily mean there's white pills, but it's facts, math, and models.

01:09:39.000 It's math and models, baby.

01:09:42.000 That's a really good sign, Tyler.

01:09:43.000 Yeah, I mean, look, even if it's like, let's say in that drop, because we know it wasn't great, let's say 20,000 dropped from that.

01:09:52.000 That's 330,000.

01:09:54.000 330,000.

01:09:56.000 That's at least 67% of the.

01:09:59.000 So out of all of the remaining votes that have yet to be cast.

01:10:02.000 All of a sudden, everything's starting to make sense.

01:10:04.000 Out of all the remaining votes that have yet to be cast.

01:10:06.000 This is why, like, we guys, yeah, exactly.

01:10:08.000 White pill.

01:10:09.000 All right. 1.00

01:10:10.000 Like, fuck up. 1.00

01:10:11.000 Wake up, Buttercup. 1.00

01:10:12.000 Like, things are great.

01:10:13.000 Things are great for Carrie.

01:10:14.000 Like, if you're Carrie Lake, you're, you're, you're, you're marching in parade.

01:10:18.000 Start planning.

01:10:18.000 You're marching in for marching in parade.

01:10:20.000 You're marching to parade.

01:10:21.000 Go plan your inauguration.

01:10:22.000 There's 492 or some odd thousand ballots left estimated in Arizona.

01:10:27.000 492,000 ballots.

01:10:29.000 300, and again, we're being super cautious here.

01:10:34.000 330,000 or more have not yet been cast.

01:10:41.000 Of your, of your best votes.

01:10:42.000 Now, not every single one of those people are going to vote, guys, right?

01:10:45.000 But like, that's like, that's like in the bank.

01:10:48.000 You're probably banking 60% of this no matter what you do.

01:10:53.000 So there's 351,000, I'm told, but some of that might have been part of the drop, right?

01:10:58.000 I'm going to find out how many dim in the bank.

01:11:01.000 Well, that's, I mean, there's only 470,000 votes left, right?

01:11:06.000 That's like a no, because there's still independence in it, too.

01:11:08.000 Email us freedom at charliekirk.com.

01:11:11.000 Oh, but you're saying they haven't voted, but they might not have turned out, is what you're saying.

01:11:14.000 Yeah, okay, they also may not have turned out for some reason, right?

01:11:18.000 Yeah, but they did because they went home because the polls were four hours long.

01:11:24.000 I see, so still a good sign.

01:11:26.000 So, what you're saying, though, is that based on voter data, it shows as if they have not registered a vote yet in the system.

01:11:32.000 Yeah, so as of yesterday, before the Maricopa County drop, like 351,404 Republicans had not yet voted in Arizona, which that's a really high number.

01:11:46.000 Well, that means that all of our theories, all of our data, all of our anecdotes, all of our projections, all of our precinct modeling is correct.

01:11:53.000 That group usually on a midterm will show up 80% of the time, probably would be my guess.

01:11:58.000 I don't know.

01:11:59.000 I don't have the exact numbers from you, but I'm just guessing.

01:12:02.000 So, if you've that's at least at least 280,000 votes are like solidly ours, like right off the bat.

01:12:08.000 So, that out of how many?

01:12:10.000 So, that puts us like out of 427.

01:12:13.000 I think we're 490-something here.

01:12:16.000 Okay, so that's yeah, it's 57% before we even get to independence, and we're winning independence two to one.

01:12:26.000 Yeah, so 57% is almost like if I had to guess, like if you said, Charlie, like jar of jelly beans on the you think we're gonna win 70% of remaining votes.

01:12:37.000 I mean, that number, if we're correct, the 80% of that remaining total number turns out of 351, uh, four or four Republicans turned out.

01:12:48.000 Well, let's test it.

01:12:49.000 How do you, how do you see if your vote has been tabulated online?

01:12:51.000 What's the process?

01:12:53.000 Uh, you can go to the Maricopa County Recorders website.

01:12:56.000 And then, what do you do once you're there?

01:12:57.000 Uh, you can put it in, it tells you your vote status.

01:12:59.000 And they actually do this by text message as well.

01:13:01.000 Okay, so hey, this: if you're looking, if you're watching from Arizona, if your vote has not been tabulated yet, email me freedom at charliekirk.com if your vote has not been counted yet.

01:13:12.000 Let's test our premise, right?

01:13:13.000 I love this.

01:13:14.000 You're using the emails as a collection operation.

01:13:18.000 You're collecting inflation.

01:13:20.000 Let's test our premise, right?

01:13:21.000 So, email me freedom at charliekirk.com.

01:13:21.000 Right.

01:13:24.000 So, um, well, what will tell us here is how many DIMS in the bank, what we call them DIM in the bank.

01:13:32.000 Oh, we have GOP in the bank and Dem in the bank, means like they're four or four voters.

01:13:35.000 So, if their four or four vote total is high as well, um, as a percentage, then that may not be as great.

01:13:43.000 But, like, I mean, let's let's crunch numbers here.

01:13:45.000 I mean, this is what we're doing here today, guys.

01:13:46.000 While we're waiting around for little Bill Gates to get to work, um, I think he's punching out over at his other job.

01:13:54.000 We won't, we won't name names where he has.

01:13:56.000 He's swinging for the future. 1.00

01:13:59.000 Yeah, by the way, Carrie Lake won 72% of in-person election day voters.

01:14:04.000 Yeah, yeah, which is- Well, by the way, drawer three might be 90,000 votes, is what we're being told now.

01:14:09.000 Who told that?

01:14:10.000 That's uh 90, I think we said 17.

01:14:10.000 Who said that?

01:14:12.000 Both Colton and Blake are now saying that I don't, I don't think.

01:14:17.000 No, that actually makes sense with turnout projections, though.

01:14:19.000 That would that would complete our final model.

01:14:21.000 I think they're getting confused with the adjudication again.

01:14:25.000 I'm not questioning anybody in the chat, guys.

01:14:27.000 No, but I'm the chat, our chat friends, guys.

01:14:30.000 We have a lot of person that gets this data.

01:14:33.000 Well, yes, but there's you're also hosting a show, too.

01:14:35.000 Are you questioning that, Tyler?

01:14:37.000 I'm on the all right.

01:14:39.000 Look, here we go.

01:14:40.000 Charlie Kirk, uh, freedom at charliekirk.com.

01:14:42.000 Robert, vote not counted yet.

01:14:44.000 Dale, Queen Creek, my vote not counted yet.

01:14:46.000 Casey, vote not yet, tabulated.

01:14:47.000 Trisha, vote not yet counted.

01:14:49.000 Tony, vote not yet counted.

01:14:50.000 Grace, vote yet not counted.

01:14:52.000 They're coming in like wow.

01:14:54.000 And these are our four out of fours.

01:14:55.000 Keep emailing us, freedom at charliekirk.com.

01:14:57.000 I'm going to say, if you're listening to this show right now, you're probably a four or four.

01:15:00.000 I'm five out of four.

01:15:01.000 I'm five out of four.

01:15:02.000 Yeah, exactly. 0.99

01:15:03.000 I'm chasing Every rumor that comes through this show, I'm going to chase down and I'm going to nip right in the butt. 0.95

01:15:09.000 Robert, not counted yet. 0.91

01:15:11.000 Emma, not counted yet.

01:15:12.000 Lee, not counted yet. 1.00

01:15:13.000 And if you spread lies, we will call you out. 0.70

01:15:17.000 Charlie, you're like a ninja with that.

01:15:19.000 In the chat, we'll call you out.

01:15:21.000 We will.

01:15:22.000 We will.

01:15:22.000 Because there's no black bills in the chat.

01:15:23.000 Colton, I won't name it.

01:15:27.000 Geez, people are like, there's just so much.

01:15:29.000 Colton was on the other night.

01:15:30.000 He was right here.

01:15:31.000 He's not listening right now.

01:15:32.000 Oh, he's not.

01:15:33.000 How do you know?

01:15:35.000 I'm now messaging in all caps.

01:15:36.000 I'm done.

01:15:37.000 I mean, the thing to remember.

01:15:39.000 Charlie has moved to all caps exclusively.

01:15:43.000 No black bills.

01:15:44.000 Charlie is in all caps.

01:15:45.000 I'm no longer in lower caps.

01:15:46.000 He's no longer in lowercase.

01:15:48.000 Yeah.

01:15:48.000 By the way, Tyler, does that mean, does four out of fours mean they also voted in the primary?

01:15:51.000 You mean four out of four general midterms?

01:15:57.000 Four or four, I believe that number is the last four elections.

01:16:00.000 So does that count primaries?

01:16:02.000 It counts primaries.

01:16:03.000 No, no, not primaries.

01:16:04.000 Okay, got it.

01:16:05.000 All right.

01:16:05.000 Okay.

01:16:05.000 Yeah, it's the last four elections.

01:16:07.000 So, so.

01:16:08.000 Look how many, oh my goodness, how many people not yet counted?

01:16:11.000 Holy moly.

01:16:12.000 There's hundreds of these coming in.

01:16:14.000 Yeah, just listening to our show.

01:16:16.000 That's what I'm saying.

01:16:17.000 This listening to Charlotte Kirk show.

01:16:18.000 But these are your four out of four, five out of four is what I'm saying.

01:16:22.000 I'm getting a tabulation on what percentage was remaining of the Dem in the bank.

01:16:28.000 And remember, Democrats were not as excited to turn out as we were.

01:16:32.000 So I'm not as convinced by that number.

01:16:35.000 But if that number is hanging in that 20, 20 percentile range, that's good for us because we can kind of start to estimate, yeah, do we have 50% of our ballots straight up?

01:16:45.000 404s are still yet left to be counted.

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01:17:51.000 How is that number increased?

01:17:53.000 No, Maricopa has increased.

01:17:55.000 Yeah, there's more votes found in Maricopa County.

01:18:00.000 Mine was the math that I deducted from the original poll.

01:18:05.000 There's 518,000 votes left to count in the state of Arizona.

01:18:09.000 More in Maricopa County.

01:18:11.000 I tend to believe that's good for us, actually.

01:18:14.000 Yeah, by the way, since I asked the question, there's at least 1,500 people that have emailed us saying their vote has not yet been counted.

01:18:21.000 Gina's joining in right now.

01:18:22.000 Oh, she is?

01:18:23.000 Wonderful.

01:18:23.000 Great.

01:18:24.000 Tell us when she's in.

01:18:25.000 I'm texting her.

01:18:26.000 I just tried calling her. 0.88

01:18:28.000 Gina is the. 0.99

01:18:30.000 She is the election guru. 0.64

01:18:31.000 She's one of the smartest election observers and knowing what she's talking about with election operations and procedures in the country.

01:18:40.000 It's not even close.

01:18:42.000 Yeah, this is, I've been very impressed by her. 0.97

01:18:45.000 I'm trying to get her to think about running for office here. 0.99

01:18:50.000 Email us freedom at charliekirk.com and tell us exactly when she's in.

01:18:54.000 So look, another really smart data guy that's listening says, Charlie, I think you guys are underestimating the percentage of Lake and Master voters after the chaos of 2020 drop-offs will be a higher percentage of GOP than 2020 by DC.

01:19:06.000 I'm not disagreeing.

01:19:07.000 Not disagreeing.

01:19:07.000 I think that's exactly right.

01:19:09.000 Yeah, 2020, it should go up.

01:19:10.000 Not just go up.

01:19:11.000 I mean, we should crush them.

01:19:13.000 No, that's been the entire premise. 0.96

01:19:15.000 That's been the premise.

01:19:15.000 And this is why like Twitter's crazy, like all these Democrat Twitter.

01:19:19.000 Are we not explaining it properly?

01:19:21.000 Is something not getting acquainted?

01:19:22.000 We're staying this way.

01:19:23.000 No, because here's why.

01:19:25.000 There is no other state in the country where the longer it goes, the rather it goes.

01:19:30.000 That's right.

01:19:30.000 There is, it's just, people have this like built in.

01:19:34.000 So like, look at the ability people.

01:19:36.000 The value is getting lower.

01:19:38.000 It's abused people.

01:19:39.000 No, we're abused people here.

01:19:40.000 So like we're like, we have like PTSD from like previous election.

01:19:46.000 They all of a sudden found ballots.

01:19:49.000 Like we like literally we're abused here in Arizona.

01:19:53.000 And this is the reason.

01:19:53.000 No, but this is the reason why we're abused.

01:19:55.000 Like look what they're balloting the ballots.

01:19:57.000 They're like sickly dropping like the worst drops like they could possibly do, like trying to control the media narrative, like coordinating with the media.

01:20:05.000 Like Bill Gates is like, little Bill Gates is like, like has New York Times a speed dial.

01:20:11.000 He's like, get this last one.

01:20:13.000 We got to play the, we got to play Bill Gates again.

01:20:15.000 What cut is Bill Gates?

01:20:16.000 We got to do it.

01:20:17.000 We got to do it.

01:20:17.000 What is this?

01:20:18.000 So embarrassing.

01:20:19.000 All right.

01:20:19.000 You'll have it up in 30 seconds.

01:20:20.000 Thank you.

01:20:20.000 Yeah.

01:20:21.000 It's just, we got to know who's in charge of this whole thing.

01:20:24.000 Oh my gosh.

01:20:24.000 Yeah, it's 210 once you guys have it.

01:20:26.000 I hope all his family at Thanksgiving like doesn't give him a huge drink.

01:20:31.000 All right.

01:20:31.000 Onesie Twosies playtape.

01:20:34.000 When do you anticipate the votes will be counted in total, those 400,000 plus votes?

01:20:41.000 Well, we have, we will be going into next week.

01:20:44.000 There's some onesie twosies, again, pursuant to Arizona law, but I think that we'll see the lion's share here wrap up by early next week.

01:20:53.000 Early next week, can you give me a day?

01:20:55.000 We're talking Monday or we may be.

01:21:00.000 As long as you don't hold me accountable.

01:21:01.000 All right.

01:21:02.000 Okay. 1.00

01:21:02.000 We got Gina Sabota here. 1.00

01:21:03.000 Gina, welcome to the program, Carrie Lake campaign. 1.00

01:21:06.000 Hey, she's been crunching numbers.

01:21:08.000 I have a question for Gina first. 1.00

01:21:10.000 Gina, you are an elections professional.

01:21:13.000 You've done procedures for a long time.

01:21:15.000 Can you tell me what the scientific explanation for the term onesies, twosies is?

01:21:21.000 The legal definition, please. 0.99

01:21:25.000 I am covering my ass because I'm an incompetent election administrator. 0.99

01:21:30.000 Something like that. 1.00

01:21:31.000 Something like that.

01:21:32.000 Yeah.

01:21:32.000 Okay.

01:21:32.000 So, Gina, you have some breaking news.

01:21:34.000 You discovered, is it correct, that 351,000, four out of four top-level Republicans have not had their vote tabulated yet?

01:21:40.000 Is that correct?

01:21:41.000 That's correct.

01:21:43.000 What Maracopa's update from our observers and our legal team this morning was that that gigantic group of late earlies, those drop-offs, they've finished signature verification, but they have not yet begun to tabulate them.

01:21:57.000 They're still finishing tabulating the 17,000 that were in door three because of their printer issues where they failed to properly allow people the opportunity to vote on site.

01:22:07.000 They finished almost 5,000 of those yesterday.

01:22:10.000 And now, even though those are tabulated, because there are random, unknown, potentially onesie twosie numbers that had to go to adjudication, they're holding the results for the whole batch until the adjudication is done.

01:22:23.000 And we want them to do that because as we learned in the audit process, when they didn't do that in 2020, we could not reconcile what was adjudicated and what was not.

01:22:23.000 They have to do that.

01:22:32.000 It's a good thing that they're doing it.

01:22:33.000 It's a bad thing that they continue to refuse to work through the night to give the people the results of this election.

01:22:38.000 Okay, so really quick, we only have a minute remaining, and we're going to welcome back our radio audience, Gina.

01:22:42.000 Adjudication, people are worried.

01:22:43.000 How many ballots are currently in adjudication?

01:22:46.000 And what does that mean?

01:22:47.000 So they're not giving us the number.

01:22:49.000 And we've asked the legal team to get a number from them today.

01:22:52.000 Adjudication is when some team of a Republican and a Democrat are going to look at your ballot and try to determine what you meant to do when you cast that vote.

01:23:01.000 The less ballots that go to adjudication, the better it is for us.

01:23:03.000 The reports I'm getting is that a lot of them are a result of the judge races in Maricopa County.

01:23:08.000 We had a large judicial retention, but there's room for mischief when things go into adjudication.

01:23:13.000 So we're working on that number.

01:23:14.000 We're going to get that for you sometime today.

01:23:16.000 So really quick, Gina, yes or no?

01:23:18.000 Does four out of four include voting in the primary?

01:23:21.000 Yes.

01:23:22.000 So you're trying to tell me 350,000 people that voted in the August primary haven't had their vote tabulated yet?

01:23:22.000 Oh, wow.

01:23:28.000 Yes.

01:23:29.000 Oh, this thing's about to get real interesting.

01:23:32.000 So Gina, what you're telling me is that you've discovered that 351,000 people that are four out of four voters that include voted in the primary in August, which means they're very high propensity Republicans, have not even had their vote tabulated yet.

01:23:44.000 How did you find that number?

01:23:47.000 So Maricopa County gave us a readout this morning via our legal observers that the 292,000 election day drop-offs have completed signature verification, but have not yet begun to go to adjudication.

01:24:01.000 So that's group one.

01:24:03.000 Then you have the 12,000 of the 17,000 that were in door three that have started to be tabulated today.

01:24:11.000 So that gets you to 300,000.

01:24:13.000 Then the next group of ballots that we have where there's a discrepancy as to whether or not they've completed tabulated is the 30 to 40 some odd thousand that were cast under what we call an emergency provision.

01:24:25.000 Those were the de facto extension of early.

01:24:28.000 These people voted on Saturday or Monday.

01:24:31.000 So the part of the issue is that Maricopa County is doing a lot of communicating, but they're not communicating clearly about where these ballots are in these buckets of the process.

01:24:41.000 So we have two observers in there that are both lawyers in one part of the facility, and they're getting different answers when they're asking this question, you know, which would lead one to believe that it's possible that this whole 50,000 batch hasn't even begun and that's going to take us up to about 345.

01:24:58.000 Yeah, so but how do you know they're four out of four voters just through voter data?

01:25:01.000 Basically, are you able to see publicly whether or not their vote has been counted?

01:25:05.000 Is that right?

01:25:07.000 Well, yeah, it's the estimate of the people that we think that were in there on that day.

01:25:12.000 It's the result of the EV33 report that's issued by Maricopa County that tells us who are the people that we have a record that their ballot came back, right?

01:25:20.000 So you look at the party breakdown of the record of the people whose ballot came back and that should give you an idea if they're three by fours or four by fours.

01:25:26.000 So generally, these are the high propensity voters.

01:25:29.000 These are the people that went in by and large of the 292,000.

01:25:33.000 These are the people that went in on election day or dropped it on election day because they wanted to make absolutely sure that their vote counted.

01:25:39.000 And in fact, the reason that number is so high is because people went to vote in person.

01:25:43.000 It was a complete and total show, if I may.

01:25:47.000 So they went back to their car.

01:25:47.000 All right.

01:25:49.000 They got the mail ballot out of the car and then they dropped it because they needed to make absolutely sure that their ballot counted and they were deprived of the right to vote in person because of the total epic failure of the Maricopa County administration.

01:26:01.000 Tyler.

01:26:02.000 Gina, there's a rumor going around that box three may not just be 17,000 votes in Maricopa County.

01:26:09.000 Are you seeing or hearing any updated information on if there's more than 17,000 that are being tabulated?

01:26:16.000 Yes.

01:26:17.000 So the elections director in Maricopa County confirmed last night that there were more than two vote centers that had an issue where at the end of the night, part of the poll worker breakdown process is they pull all the ballots out of the tabulator bins and they bag them.

01:26:35.000 And when they pulled them out, they pulled out the separator that keeps the tabulated ballots on one side and the door three ballots on the other side.

01:26:44.000 So, if those got commingled together, and it's our understanding that they got commingled together in more than two vote center locations, that would mean that we have ballots that didn't get counted when they said how many went into door three and later began the process of sending them to tabulation.

01:27:01.000 So, yes, I believe there are potentially more than potentially a lot more, but there are more than 17 votes.

01:27:06.000 Gina, what two polling centers were those?

01:27:11.000 What two vote centers were those?

01:27:12.000 Do you know the locations?

01:27:14.000 They haven't given it to us yet.

01:27:15.000 No, and there are more than two.

01:27:18.000 Do you think those were in good areas for us or bad areas for us?

01:27:23.000 I do not know, but either way, the election day voters were ours, even in areas that might not have been generally leaning our way.

01:27:32.000 There were a large proportion of people that have had enough of Biden administration policies that were pulling the ticket for our party.

01:27:39.000 The Americopa County, I want to reiterate this: the Maricopa County Elections Director, Scott Jarrett, confirmed to you that multiple vote centers had a massive amount of ballots that were collected and mixed in together that have yet to be tabulated.

01:27:56.000 And we don't know what that outstanding number looks like yet.

01:28:00.000 It's correct that he reported it to one of our people that are on site yesterday.

01:28:04.000 He didn't report it directly to me.

01:28:06.000 And yes, that statement is accurate.

01:28:08.000 So it looks like that there could be a significant addition.

01:28:12.000 I mean, do you know what the average amount of vote center ballots were cast?

01:28:17.000 I mean, could you just give us a roundabout idea of how many votes were cast or dropped off at each individual?

01:28:22.000 Yeah, that's rough without knowing where they are because there were some vote centers that vote centers that had 1,700 voters.

01:28:31.000 So that's a disparate number.

01:28:34.000 But safe to say that we have more than 17,000 votes that should be counted in door three, of which they've still only managed to get through 4,600 of the original 17,000.

01:28:50.000 And they're talking about engaging in a process where they do some kind of internal attempt at reconciliation so that they can look at the data cards.

01:28:58.000 The reads they're getting on the data cards in those locations aren't matching the number of ballots they have because these ballots got mixed together.

01:29:05.000 So to my mind, the easiest way to ensure that every ballot got counted is just to retabulate every ballot that came in to that vote center.

01:29:15.000 Yeah, how would we know if they're just in bags?

01:29:18.000 Well, that's well, they're bagged and tagged and labeled by the vote center that they came in.

01:29:23.000 So there's supposed to be a sheet in there that tells you what location that they're from.

01:29:26.000 So we can tell the difference between check-ins and votes that are yet to be tabulated for that vote center, correct?

01:29:33.000 They already did a hand count verification of certain vote centers.

01:29:36.000 Was the hand count verification done in one of these vote centers?

01:29:41.000 We don't know because we don't know which vote centers they are because they haven't told us.

01:29:45.000 So we have our observer.

01:29:46.000 Yeah, we have our observer reports.

01:29:48.000 We had observers in the field that told us for at least two where they are.

01:29:52.000 So we're pulling that data now.

01:29:54.000 But where the other ones are, you know, I don't know.

01:29:56.000 We've reached out to all of the observer coordinators to make sure that throughout all of Maricopa County, all our data is on one sheet.

01:30:02.000 And we should know within the next couple of hours after looking at all our data where we think they are.

01:30:07.000 And then we're reaching out to get them to try to tell us what they, I mean, their plan is not clear to us and they're not being transparent, as you know, in any way.

01:30:15.000 What percentage of ballots left in Pima County are late earlies versus election day drop-offs?

01:30:21.000 So it looks like, according to what Gabby said this morning, that she was conflating, it was not that there were 103,000 late early drop-offs.

01:30:31.000 It's really about 50,000 late, early drop-offs and then 44 or 45,000 that came in for that Friday, Saturday, Monday.

01:30:41.000 So it's about 50,000 late earlies.

01:30:43.000 So 50,000 drops, is that right?

01:30:46.000 Correct.

01:30:46.000 So those should favor us probably 55 to 57%, maybe even more, right?

01:30:52.000 Yeah, correct.

01:30:53.000 55 to 47, to 5 to 58.

01:30:56.000 We looked at that in the last drop and we won those.

01:31:00.000 Got it.

01:31:01.000 So, and then those late earlies in Pima shouldn't be as bad as some of the prior earlies.

01:31:06.000 Is that right?

01:31:07.000 Yes, yes.

01:31:09.000 Those are not our majority voters.

01:31:11.000 So if you blend that all together, there's a chance that Carrie or Blake get 51, 52% of the remaining votes in Pima County.

01:31:11.000 Yeah.

01:31:18.000 Is that right?

01:31:19.000 Yep.

01:31:19.000 Yes.

01:31:20.000 That means that Katie Hobbs has no, she really has no county.

01:31:20.000 Which is great.

01:31:24.000 She has no path if that's the case.

01:31:25.000 Yep.

01:31:26.000 No matter what, period.

01:31:28.000 Exactly.

01:31:28.000 Signed, sealed, and delivered.

01:31:30.000 So is there a chance, Gina, for Blake's, for Blake's case, that these remaining drops in Maricopa are overwhelmingly positive?

01:31:38.000 We're talking 69, 70, 71, 72%.

01:31:41.000 Is that in the cards?

01:31:44.000 Not today, because the drop we're going to get today is probably going to be some of those Friday, Saturday, Monday, and only about 4,600 of door three.

01:31:51.000 So we're not going to see a true and accurate estimation of what happens today.

01:31:54.000 So tonight, we don't get any late, we don't get any election day drop-offs today?

01:31:59.000 We do not.

01:32:00.000 Are you kidding me?

01:32:02.000 No, that's, I mean, that's the readout I got this morning is that they completed the signature verification, but they have yet to start tabulating those because they're still trying to tabulate the remaining 12,000 of the door three, then the 12,000 of the door three that then have to go to adjudication, and then they will begin to tabulate the late earlies.

01:32:25.000 So if we're still working our way through this adjudication shoots and ladders game, and they need to hold the whole batch, then that means that our 12,000 that get through tabulation from door three need to go through adjudication, and then those will come out the other end of the reporting.

01:32:41.000 That needs to happen before the late earlies of the 292,000 go to tabulation.

01:32:47.000 If even one of them's got an adjudicated ballot in it, then those 200 ballot batches have to be held and go through adjudication.

01:32:54.000 Yep.

01:32:55.000 So I do not expect if they do not agree to work through the night that we're going to get to see any of that.

01:33:00.000 It'll probably be late tomorrow.

01:33:03.000 Gina, thank you so much for your time.

01:33:05.000 We really appreciate it.

01:33:05.000 We're going to have you back on tonight.

01:33:07.000 Okay.

01:33:07.000 Thank you so much.

01:33:08.000 Thank you.

01:33:09.000 Appreciate it.

01:33:09.000 God bless.

01:33:12.000 Hey, everybody, Charlie Kirk here.

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01:34:16.000 What are we thinking about here, Jack?

01:34:19.000 I just look at some of these memes that are coming in and I look at some of these jokes about Maricopa County, the fact that you can't even actually get a solid number on how many votes were cast at this point.

01:34:32.000 You don't even know how many votes were out.

01:34:34.000 You can't tell what's going on.

01:34:35.000 We're literally in a hostage situation with like a gun to our heads about where we're just stuck here.

01:34:41.000 We're literally just stuck here waiting on these goblins to dance around.

01:34:51.000 And we don't even know if, by the way, if we're getting batches today, we don't know if we're getting batches tomorrow.

01:34:55.000 They say they're going to work through the weekend.

01:34:56.000 They've said that, but we have no clue when anything's actually getting released.

01:35:00.000 This is like, you can order food off of a piece of glass in your hand in 2022.

01:35:07.000 I can make food up here at the front door.

01:35:09.000 And yet these ballots, they take break.

01:35:11.000 Tyler, you have some party breakdown.

01:35:13.000 Is that right?

01:35:14.000 That you've been sharing?

01:35:15.000 Can you share that publicly?

01:35:16.000 Yeah, this is we're going to put out.

01:35:18.000 We actually just wanted to get it right.

01:35:20.000 So we actually pulled out a tweet off of Charlie's Twitter that didn't have the exact language right, but we'll start with that.

01:35:26.000 We want to be super specific.

01:35:27.000 Because these things are changing in real time.

01:35:28.000 Yeah, we want to just make sure we get it right because it's different about yesterday at noon versus the day of the election.

01:35:36.000 But heading into election day, what we do know is this, that on election day, 46% of Republican likely voters, and this is the 404 thing that we're talking about.

01:35:44.000 We're going to call them likelies, right? 1.00

01:35:46.000 Republican likely voters were still outstanding.

01:35:49.000 That's awesome.

01:35:49.000 That means like almost half of our voters had not yet voted.

01:35:53.000 Democrats had 31% outstanding, and we know that Democrats show up at a much lower pace.

01:35:58.000 And so this is part of the reason why you're seeing the slaughter fest on election day.

01:36:04.000 And this should warm everybody's heart, regardless of that 351,000 number.

01:36:08.000 And this is what the question is: okay, is there 351,000 left?

01:36:12.000 Is it 351,000 left today?

01:36:15.000 I'm going to get to the brass tacks on that.

01:36:17.000 What we do know is heading into election day, 46% had not yet voted.

01:36:22.000 So that's.

01:36:22.000 So 46% of our four out of fours.

01:36:25.000 So let's just call, let's look at Maricopa County.

01:36:27.000 248,000 people voted.

01:36:28.000 That's like half the ballots.

01:36:30.000 We know that more than half actually were dropped off.

01:36:34.000 290.

01:36:35.000 Let's just say.

01:36:36.000 Or actually, it was 310.

01:36:37.000 So that means that we probably still have 20, you know, somewhere in the ballpark in the 20s, in the 20s, of how many voters we still have left yet to tabulate.

01:36:47.000 What does that mean?

01:36:48.000 What's that number mean?

01:36:49.000 It's a lot.

01:36:50.000 It's a significant number.

01:36:52.000 It's 270 to 325,000, probably.

01:36:54.000 Yeah, our total in the bank number heading in was, I think, was somewhere in that ballpark.

01:37:01.000 So I think we hit it, though.

01:37:03.000 So we know in the bank in Maricopa County, likely and across the state, or somewhere probably in the ballpark of 200,000 votes for sure that we can count on.

01:37:14.000 For Kerry Lake.

01:37:15.000 For Kerry and Blake.

01:37:18.000 And that's just remaining.

01:37:19.000 Yeah, these are four or four Republican votes.

01:37:20.000 You're trying to tell me so that 200 out of the 290,000 are like assured votes.

01:37:26.000 That's without independence breaking our way.

01:37:29.000 That's wild.

01:37:31.000 Yeah.

01:37:32.000 I mean, the reality is this, is that if we get independent breaks at that level and we have that many outstanding votes, there's a really solid chance that Blake has a pathway.

01:37:44.000 I mean, you're talking about winning 75% of these drops potentially.

01:37:49.000 Yeah, I mean, I mean, before that.

01:37:52.000 That's not what the model looked like.

01:37:54.000 That is not what the model looked like for Trump in 2020.

01:37:57.000 But everything's changed since 2020.

01:37:59.000 Because of the mules and all of that stuff.

01:38:01.000 Yeah, but if you asked me to put like my children's life savings on it, you know, we're saying it's possible.

01:38:06.000 We're saying it's possible.

01:38:08.000 They don't have very much, but so I want to be, I would be willing to take that risk.

01:38:12.000 But yeah, I would tell you that I think that we're going to have some breakage.

01:38:17.000 Blake needs to have probably like a 2% breakage in order to win.

01:38:22.000 If he has more than that, then it's going to be tough.

01:38:25.000 And that's a tight window.

01:38:27.000 I want to say this.

01:38:29.000 Dave Wasserman, he might be right.

01:38:32.000 He could not.

01:38:32.000 I mean, let's just.

01:38:33.000 I was just going to bring that up.

01:38:34.000 But let's be honest.

01:38:35.000 Dave Wasserman, he's just guessing.

01:38:37.000 And honestly, he's making an educated guess.

01:38:39.000 I actually think he's a super smart guy and very fair, but I think he jumped the gun here.

01:38:43.000 He ended up might being right.

01:38:43.000 I'm not saying, oh, he's going to end up being wrong and eating his words, but that's not necessarily true.

01:38:47.000 But here's the thing: what Tyler and what you have put together is a deep understanding of the systemic destruction of the Arizona voting system and the reconfiguration into this monstrosity of a situation that they have now, particularly in Maricopa County, but also across the state.

01:39:10.000 And if you don't understand that, if you don't actually have that on-the-ground understanding of how much elections have changed here just in the past four years, then you know, you might, you might have your ear all a little bit off the ground.

01:39:25.000 One of our team members said something so interesting.

01:39:27.000 He says, This whole thing is so weird.

01:39:28.000 There's no prior case of a major political actor encouraging the specific behavior of dropping off a mail-in ballot on election day and then altering projects.

01:39:37.000 It's true, right?

01:39:39.000 This is why I think everyone is so confused.

01:39:41.000 Well, this is giving me a lot of people.

01:39:43.000 I remember when I heard it the first time, when I heard you say it, Charlie, and I was like, why would you do this?

01:39:49.000 I hate to take credit for this, but I'm probably to blame for like 50,000 of these people.

01:39:54.000 Right.

01:39:54.000 And like, and like, people heard about it from you, and then they started doing yeah, I know.

01:39:58.000 Remember, people were telling, like, no, tell them to vote at the polling place.

01:40:02.000 Then we changed when I showed up to vote.

01:40:04.000 There was at least 10 people that I feel like I'm nothing.

01:40:06.000 They said, Charlie, I'm voting the way you told me to.

01:40:08.000 Like, oh, boy, I hope this is a good idea.

01:40:10.000 So, so I mean, I'm going to tell you this right now: is this bringing me nightmares?

01:40:16.000 This is bringing back reminiscent nightmares.

01:40:18.000 Flashbacks, flashbacks.

01:40:20.000 Because this was what happened.

01:40:22.000 The day that they start counting actually these ballots, people start freaking out because they're like, it says online that my vote was counted.

01:40:28.000 It says it wasn't counted.

01:40:29.000 Like, it was bad.

01:40:31.000 I mean, I remember the system didn't work.

01:40:34.000 The system's, I mean, to some credit at the recorder's office, the system's better than it was in 2020 because it was a disaster last time because none of it made sense.

01:40:43.000 But now, like, I'm already getting messages.

01:40:45.000 They're like, it says my vote was counted.

01:40:47.000 And they haven't released any of the counted votes from their drop-offs that day.

01:40:52.000 So I just had a close friend who checked his wife's ballot status.

01:40:57.000 His wife shows that her vote was tabulated and counted.

01:41:01.000 With where?

01:41:02.000 From drop-off on election day.

01:41:04.000 It's already showed her vote tabulated and counted.

01:41:06.000 So now here's the question.

01:41:07.000 They've said they haven't even touched those ballots yet, but they said they haven't tabulated those ballots.

01:41:12.000 Oh my gosh.

01:41:12.000 No, this is that reporting system versus these batches.

01:41:18.000 I don't, and I'm just going to put this out there.

01:41:20.000 It wouldn't surprise me if those systems were not talking to each other and if that data wasn't completely accurate.

01:41:26.000 It might be accurate a week from now, a month from now, but in real time, it would not surprise me if those systems were not talking to each other and that those numbers that we're talking about that you guys are modeling aren't necessarily reflective of when you go and look up your personal ballot.

01:41:40.000 I'm just saying.

01:41:43.000 And yeah, I mean, so what is happening in box three is the question, right?

01:41:47.000 Door three, box three.

01:41:49.000 No one knows.

01:41:50.000 No one knows.

01:41:51.000 Door three.

01:41:52.000 Yeah. 1.00

01:41:52.000 It puts the ballots in door three or it gets the hose again. 1.00

01:41:56.000 That's right.

01:41:57.000 Yeah.

01:41:57.000 So this is the ongoing question.

01:41:59.000 Any updates out of Nevada?

01:42:00.000 These things are happening so quickly in Nevada.

01:42:03.000 Nevada is an equal Nevada in some ways is a much more well it's all about Washaw County.

01:42:08.000 Oh man.

01:42:09.000 So is it really?

01:42:10.000 It's it really and Clark, but Washaw either needs to win.

01:42:16.000 He's down five points there.

01:42:17.000 5,000 votes.

01:42:18.000 Either needs to win or come very, very close.

01:42:23.000 It would be much easier path if he wins Washaw.

01:42:26.000 Is that Reno?

01:42:27.000 Is that right?

01:42:27.000 Is that Reno?

01:42:28.000 Yeah, that's the North.

01:42:29.000 That's Reno.

01:42:30.000 But it is winnable for Republicans.

01:42:32.000 Yeah.

01:42:33.000 Whereas Clark County.

01:42:34.000 I thought he would run off the score up there, man.

01:42:35.000 Those people have been getting crushed.

01:42:38.000 You have to win mailman, vote by mail.

01:42:40.000 Yeah, you have to win him.

01:42:41.000 There's a new machine in town.

01:42:43.000 So you basically have to win every county and lose Clark by less to win in Nevada.

01:42:47.000 Yes.

01:42:47.000 Yeah.

01:42:48.000 Really, Nevada, the old way of Nevada, Nevada was like a smaller version of us, which was that you kind of had to just win Clark County just barely to win.

01:43:00.000 And, you know, you can probably get away with it.

01:43:02.000 But this is the reason why Nevada's been going so blue is because it's so hard to win Clark County.

01:43:09.000 It's just interesting on the DeSantis Trump intrigue.

01:43:11.000 I'm going to read this on air.

01:43:12.000 I say this is a Trump supporter.

01:43:13.000 This is one of our top donors who's given us seven figures plus.

01:43:17.000 I am now in the Never Trump camp.

01:43:19.000 Let that set in.

01:43:20.000 I've gone there and it will swell in for millions because I supported him 100% and enthusiastically.

01:43:25.000 His comments about Yunkin and DeSantis this morning are over the top.

01:43:29.000 He needs to be stopped.

01:43:31.000 What do you think, Jack?

01:43:32.000 I'm not there.

01:43:33.000 I'm just saying, I'm just reading it from a donor.

01:43:35.000 I've heard that sentiment.

01:43:36.000 I've definitely heard that sentiment from media, conservative media, donors, consultants.

01:43:42.000 I've heard the sentiment.

01:43:43.000 I have.

01:43:44.000 So here's a cool sign.

01:43:45.000 I'm also not there.

01:43:47.000 This guy in Pinal County says, my walk-in box of my precinct was full.

01:43:51.000 My ballot has been marked as received, but not counted in Pinal County, strong red area.

01:43:57.000 He said that the drop box was overflowing.

01:43:59.000 That's a good sign.

01:44:00.000 Really good sign.

01:44:01.000 email us freedom at charliekirk.com.

01:44:23.000 This whole thing is a mass like torture operation of us.

01:44:27.000 Yeah.

01:44:28.000 Welcome back, everybody.

01:44:29.000 Email us freedom at charliekirk.com.

01:44:32.000 Yeah, also, I mean, look, I'm not saying in any ways that I believe that.

01:44:36.000 I just found that so striking because, I mean, you got to be honest, when someone who is a seven-figure contributor to conservative causes a year, you got to pay attention, right?

01:44:46.000 You have to listen to it and say, okay, we're testing the metal.

01:44:49.000 I mean, look, I just got a text from a top pastor in North Carolina. 1.00

01:44:53.000 So sick of this crap. 1.00

01:44:54.000 I love Trump. 1.00

01:44:55.000 Right now, super polarizing.

01:44:57.000 It's turning people off.

01:44:58.000 Can you help me understand this?

01:45:00.000 I think the mean huge pastor in North Carolina.

01:45:02.000 I think the mean tweets have turned into mean truths at this point.

01:45:05.000 So I think 2015, 2016, it was exactly like this.

01:45:10.000 It was exactly like this going into the primary season.

01:45:13.000 I remember it.

01:45:13.000 I remember Lomarco and all of it.

01:45:17.000 So to me, it looks like I'm just going with what I said the other day.

01:45:22.000 On election day, I said, and this is my analysis.

01:45:24.000 Nothing I'm descriptive, not normative.

01:45:28.000 I said, I think we're looking at another 2016-style primary.

01:45:32.000 And I think that there are a lot of people who are either chomping at the bit to announce or a lot of campaigns that are being sort of draft certain people to run.

01:45:43.000 And not just DeSantis, but other candidates out there, obviously.

01:45:45.000 Nikki Haley.

01:45:46.000 I think Nikki Haley, the fact that she's putting out these tweets with Herschel Walker, Ted Cruz going out with Herschel Walker.

01:45:53.000 And by the way, God bless him for going out there with Herschel Walker.

01:45:55.000 But you can't ask me to say that doesn't obviously mean trying to lay the groundwork for a potential primary run.

01:46:01.000 And so what I think he's doing is sizing up the field.

01:46:04.000 And he's saying, look, I know there's been talk about DeSantis.

01:46:06.000 I know there's been talk about Yunkin.

01:46:08.000 And so he's getting the ball off.

01:46:10.000 You know, really interesting, Tyler.

01:46:11.000 I'm actually going to go look at the Pima County precincts to go see which precincts have held back their ballots.

01:46:17.000 That'd be really interesting.

01:46:18.000 If like Oro Valley and all those other, like Dove Mountain, those should be conservative precincts in Tucson, right?

01:46:24.000 Yeah, I mean, you can look at it.

01:46:25.000 I don't know the landscape as well.

01:46:29.000 Tucson's such a disaster down there.

01:46:29.000 I'm going to be honest with you.

01:46:31.000 Approximating, though, but we need Blake needs to have a hometown boy love of like 55, 56 there.

01:46:38.000 There's a good sign in Tucson and Pima County.

01:46:41.000 I'll tell you what that is.

01:46:42.000 So, LD 17, the new LD 17, legislative district 17, legislative district 17, Foster Freeze, Foster Freeze, yeah, legislative district 17.

01:46:50.000 Uh, Justine Wadsak down there just upset in a big way an establishment guy named Vince Leach, and that is in a uh the outskirts of Tucson and Pima County, and she was under going into election day, she was losing going into election day, and early votes came back and she and she sprung up.

01:47:15.000 So, if we use this equation that half the voters voted at the polls, half the voters dropped off ballots, that means she's going to spring up again quite a bit more.

01:47:24.000 And I'm looking at the numbers, Charlie, here, and I mean, she was losing, they were losing pretty considerably going into election night by thousands of votes.

01:47:33.000 And now, Justine Wadstack, I mean, she's for sure going to be a state senator, it's not a question at this point.

01:47:41.000 But the question that we're looking at is using this is like, okay, well, what happened?

01:47:45.000 And if half the votes got cast in person and then another half the votes are coming, what does that mean?

01:47:52.000 And for Justine, what that means is, I mean, I'm pretty sure she got thousands of votes that night.

01:48:00.000 I'm looking at it right now.

01:48:02.000 The answer to that question is yes, she ended up getting probably more than 10% of her votes, 15% of her votes.

01:48:11.000 So, if that's any isolation to look at, there's a good chance that Pima County still has a really good amount of Republican votes.

01:48:22.000 Huge, I know there is.

01:48:23.000 Look, I mean, I'm looking at the Tucson suburbs and these kind of upper, these, let's just say, high-mountain suburbs right here: Dove Mountain, you know, kind of right near higher net worth, if you will, Oro Valley.

01:48:35.000 There's actually like a Ritz Carlton up there, they're all within striking distance, Blake and Kerry, in the kind of northern suburbs of Tucson, which goes to show.

01:48:43.000 And by the way, the vote totals are super low in some of these, which goes to show a lot of, like, look at this one precinct up here has 322 recorded votes.

01:48:51.000 Now, it could just be a small precinct, but all precincts are not created equal here, but yeah, but that's low.

01:48:57.000 I mean, I don't care what precinct you're in, 322 is low.

01:49:00.000 It just depends on the precinct.

01:49:01.000 But this is not all going to be blue.

01:49:02.000 This is not possible.

01:49:04.000 Well, you wouldn't think so.

01:49:06.000 Not with a trend we're seeing.

01:49:08.000 I don't know Tucson well enough, and I do know that Tucson's weird, and it should be part of Mexico probably still.

01:49:14.000 But I will say this: there is a good chance that it's not as bad.

01:49:20.000 It won't be a bloodbath in Tucson like they think it will be.

01:49:24.000 I think it's actually we're going to gain in Tucson, if not at the worst case scenario, just be net neutral, which is exactly what you need.

01:49:30.000 Email us freedom at charliekirk.com and subscribe to the Charlie Kirk Show podcast.

01:49:36.000 I'm going to talk about an election trend that I didn't see manifest, which is whether people want to admit it or not, there's a 5% to 10% population out there, only about 5% or 10%, especially in Arizona, especially in Georgia, especially in Tennessee, that are really anti-government types.

01:49:53.000 They're libertarians, and they got really animated by the raid on Mar-a-Lago, weaponization of DOJ.

01:50:01.000 Do you think we did a good enough job mobilizing the small government libertarian types behind our candidates?

01:50:08.000 Because these are guys that they believe in no firearm laws.

01:50:12.000 You know the type, right, Tyler?

01:50:13.000 No, and by the way, I can show you this because walk us through it.

01:50:17.000 Go look.

01:50:18.000 I don't even need to walk you through anything.

01:50:20.000 Go look at the vote totals for the libertarian candidates in Arizona, Pennsylvania, and I think Michigan had some.

01:50:30.000 I'm not sure if Alaska did or not.

01:50:31.000 So, double-check me on that.

01:50:33.000 But there's a number of states where, and it wasn't always the margin of difference, by the way, the margin of victory, but it is sizable numbers that I think the GOP certainly, the GOP.

01:50:45.000 Everyone knows Dr. Oz wasn't my number one candidate.

01:50:49.000 Did you ever hear him talk about guns?

01:50:51.000 Did you ever hear him talk about any of these issues that would appeal to libertarians?

01:50:56.000 So I think this is actually one of the sparks in the magic of 2010 energy, right, Tyler?

01:50:56.000 Yeah, there's like this.

01:51:02.000 Is that the country was far more just like generally anti-government overreach, Obamacare.

01:51:02.000 Yep.

01:51:08.000 They were sick of it.

01:51:10.000 But one of the sparks of magic in 2010 was that extra 5% to 10%.

01:51:14.000 And I'm not one of these people, but I do sympathize with some of them on guns and on civil liberties and on mass surveillance, stuff like that, right?

01:51:22.000 Yeah, I mean, you'll sort of Ron Paul was right on how much.

01:51:27.000 But that's not a small, that's not a small group of people, right?

01:51:31.000 No, it's a huge group of people.

01:51:33.000 In fact, some of the biggest, you go on social media, libertarians have massive, massive followings.

01:51:39.000 Yeah.

01:51:39.000 So you take Arizona.

01:51:41.000 Did Dave Smith?

01:51:42.000 I think Blake did the best job of this. 1.00

01:51:44.000 He attempted to, that stupid libertarian candidate. 1.00

01:51:47.000 Blake actually comes from a more libertarian tradition. 1.00

01:51:50.000 He comes more from that world a little bit more.

01:51:52.000 I think he followed a path that a lot of people did, sort of going through their a lot of, and Blake's a millennial, by the way, we were talking about millennial Blake's breaks.

01:52:02.000 That's my freaking flip of the day.

01:52:04.000 And that a lot of millennials went through this fiercely anti-government stage or a severely pro-government stage, depending on which ID fell of the Occupy Wall Street movement and the financial crisis. 0.54

01:52:16.000 And you either went super anti-government or super pro-government.

01:52:20.000 And then during the Trump years, kind of had this reawakening of an understanding of, well, you know, okay, we do need a government, and it's really more about who's in control of that government.

01:52:32.000 We got an email here from somebody. 0.79

01:52:33.000 Charlie, why the hell would you want to run a loser like Trump when you have a young dynamic winner in Ron DeSantis? 0.97

01:52:40.000 First of all, how could you say he's a loser when he was president? 0.98

01:52:42.000 Okay. 0.91

01:52:43.000 It's like this guy's been in the Oval Office.

01:52:43.000 I always laugh.

01:52:45.000 He won an election and he probably won 2020 if it wasn't for the interference.

01:52:49.000 Okay.

01:52:50.000 DeSantis would steamroll any Democrat in 2024.

01:52:53.000 Trump will lose again.

01:52:54.000 Why the hell aren't you backing DeSantis?

01:52:55.000 First of all, I'm a loyal person.

01:52:57.000 Second of all, I know he was a great president, and that does not come lightly for me, nor for Jack.

01:53:02.000 Charlie, here's my answer to that.

01:53:04.000 It's right in front of you.

01:53:05.000 The upper Rust Belt?

01:53:07.000 Pennsylvania, Michigan, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

01:53:10.000 No other Republican candidate in recent history, since the 1980s, has, since Reagan, right, and HW a little bit because he was on the Reagan's coattails, have been able to win back the upper Midwest and the Rust Belt.

01:53:26.000 And I put Pennsylvania in that column because Western Pennsylvania fits into that demographic.

01:53:32.000 Donald Trump has a connection with the people of that region.

01:53:38.000 He has a connection with those tolls.

01:53:41.000 He got 1.3 million people out for him.

01:53:43.000 That didn't show up.

01:53:44.000 1.3 million.

01:53:45.000 That aren't showing up for anybody else.

01:53:47.000 And those are in key states.

01:53:50.000 And guess what?

01:53:51.000 The upper Midwest, the Rust Belt ain't the Sunbelt, right?

01:53:53.000 The Rust Belt ain't the Sunbelt.

01:53:55.000 So you need a guy who can play in both.

01:53:58.000 And we do have one of those right now.

01:54:00.000 Yeah.

01:54:00.000 And so, look, it's going to be a lot of fun.

01:54:01.000 And that's, by the way, that's not an, I'd like Rob, I'd like to Ron DeSantis a lot. 0.98

01:54:04.000 Like it's not a knock against him or really anyone that's trying to run right now, except Nikki Kelly, who sucks.

01:54:11.000 But the idea that is that I think he would be the most elected, right?

01:54:16.000 I'm going to read another email here, which is this: one who has supported and defended Trump since 2016.

01:54:25.000 I am done now.

01:54:26.000 I can only care more about America than a man. 1.00

01:54:28.000 Trump attacking good Republican candidates because of a bruised ego.

01:54:30.000 He puts himself before the good of the people.

01:54:32.000 I cannot support and defend him anymore.

01:54:34.000 Getting a lot of emails like that.

01:54:35.000 Another one person here says, Charlie, I'm 100% Trump.

01:54:38.000 I think you should attack these other candidates.

01:54:40.000 We need him as the candidate in 24.

01:54:41.000 I don't trust anybody but Trump.

01:54:43.000 Okay.

01:54:43.000 So we're getting it both ways.

01:54:46.000 My comment section and my emails have been exactly the same.

01:54:49.000 It's 50%.

01:54:51.000 Oh, this is Demo Ego.

01:54:52.000 He's thin-skinned.

01:54:53.000 What's going on?

01:54:54.000 Why is he doing this?

01:54:55.000 The other half is this is exactly right.

01:54:57.000 He's thinning out the field.

01:54:59.000 He's targeting people who might run against him.

01:55:01.000 He's launching the first step.

01:55:03.000 We got a mass ballot drop here of $413,000.

01:55:08.000 Whoa, whoa.

01:55:10.000 And Blake Masters gained in this. 0.99

01:55:12.000 And so Carrie Lake got 58% of it, which means she gained like 30 votes.

01:55:16.000 So remember, Coach East is basically the outskirts of Tucson, right?

01:55:19.000 So I loved it all together: Pima and Coach East and everything in the South.

01:55:23.000 And that's Bisbee.

01:55:24.000 That's Syria. 0.87

01:55:25.000 In the Southeast.

01:55:25.000 Tombstone, too, right?

01:55:27.000 It's not the greatest territory for us.

01:55:29.000 Do we actually live in Tombstone?

01:55:32.000 There's actually tribes, and there's a massive amount of Hispanic voters that generally haven't always gone our way.

01:55:37.000 They're converting.

01:55:39.000 But yeah, I mean, this is a good sign that it looks like these were day of votes that are breaking nearly 60% for Carrie Lake.

01:55:47.000 That's a great sign.

01:55:48.000 And for Mark Fincham, too.

01:55:49.000 So this is really the indicator.

01:55:51.000 Mark Fincham is pulling ahead about two points ahead of Blake.

01:55:55.000 So there is real.

01:55:56.000 I tweeted this this morning.

01:55:57.000 There's a real possibility that this place is this election so close for Blake and Mark that one of them loses and one of them wins, but they're only separated by a few thousand votes.

01:56:09.000 Ken says, since when do donors determine who can run for president?

01:56:12.000 I just tripled my Trump donation this month.

01:56:13.000 Millions more like me, Ken from Prescott.

01:56:17.000 Yeah, again, it's not the media, the pundits, or the donors who choose the candidate.

01:56:23.000 It's the voters.

01:56:25.000 It's the voters.

01:56:26.000 It's the people who turn out in the primary and it's the people who turn out in the general.

01:56:30.000 And I think this was determined to great effect in 2016.

01:56:36.000 Lindsay says, honestly, I don't think Trump will win the nomination with his latest comments.

01:56:41.000 Okay.

01:56:42.000 So I do find it interesting.

01:56:44.000 I just have to say it, all right?

01:56:45.000 I just throw it out there that everybody's made this joke for the last two years.

01:56:49.000 No more mean tweets, no more mean tweets, no more mean tweets.

01:56:52.000 Now we are getting mean tweets again and everybody's complaining about it.

01:56:58.000 Okay.

01:56:58.000 So Tyler, when are we expecting the next vote drops?

01:57:02.000 Hashtag noncommittal Charlie.

01:57:06.000 I'm winning Trump if he runs.

01:57:07.000 We truly do not know.

01:57:09.000 Like we really, truly do not.

01:57:11.000 He's announcing Tuesday, by the way.

01:57:12.000 Everybody knows that, right?

01:57:13.000 He's announcing for president Tuesday.

01:57:14.000 He's announcing President Tuesday, Mar-a-Lago.

01:57:16.000 Hopefully, we know.

01:57:17.000 Yeah, I got an invite.

01:57:19.000 I don't know if I'm going to be there.

01:57:20.000 Congrats.

01:57:21.000 I will not be there.

01:57:21.000 I cannot make it.

01:57:22.000 Yeah.

01:57:23.000 I'll probably be out of the country if we can figure out our elections here.

01:57:26.000 That being said, I have a prior engagement.

01:57:29.000 I would have no problem going.

01:57:30.000 It's not like I'm saying I refused to go or something like that.

01:57:33.000 It's not priority.

01:57:35.000 I may be over there.

01:57:37.000 I may not.

01:57:37.000 We'll see.

01:57:38.000 You should go.

01:57:38.000 You should be the emissary.

01:57:39.000 One of us should go.

01:57:41.000 The turning point emissary.

01:57:42.000 Yeah, the turning point delegation led by Tyler.

01:57:43.000 That'd be a good idea for you to go.

01:57:44.000 The ambassador.

01:57:45.000 I'm invited because I'm on the RC.

01:57:46.000 You should go.

01:57:47.000 You should go.

01:57:48.000 I will probably go and then go just head up to make my East Coast pit stops and then come back.

01:57:56.000 I think that's a good idea.

01:57:57.000 You should represent us.

01:57:58.000 Email us freedom at charliekirk.com. 1.00

01:58:00.000 Carrie Lake is now only down 26,000 votes after that latest Coach East drop.

01:58:07.000 But if you model that out, that's really good.

01:58:09.000 It's going to be great news.

01:58:10.000 Yeah, Carrie Lake is heading in such a great direction. 1.00

01:58:14.000 She could win by like 120,000, 150,000 votes. 1.00

01:58:17.000 It's possible.

01:58:18.000 More than possible. 0.80

01:58:19.000 She could end up winning by a lot.

01:58:21.000 And the media narrative that's going to happen, and this is part of the reason why I think they're doing what they're doing.

01:58:26.000 And I really, I really, really do believe this.

01:58:28.000 And for all the crazy people online, they're saying that this is not going to be close.

01:58:32.000 It's going to be a blowout for Blake.

01:58:33.000 Guys, Kerry Lake's not going to win by a bunch of votes and then Blake lose by like a ton of votes. 0.88

01:58:38.000 There's not 300,000 vote differential there. 0.50

01:58:40.000 It's just not.

01:58:41.000 So either you have to believe Kerry's going to win by a lot and Blake's going to lose by a little or win by a little, or you have to believe that Kerry's going to win by a little and Blake's going to lose by a lot.

01:58:52.000 And I just, I'm telling you right now, all of the data, I'm telling you, there are existing four or four Republican voters that exist out there that have not yet, their vote has not been counted.

01:59:01.000 It has not been tabulated.

01:59:03.000 We went into election day with almost 50% of four or four Republicans always vote in every election, Republicans that had not yet voted.

01:59:12.000 Okay.

01:59:12.000 And only half those people could have voted at the polls because only half those people's votes were tabulated.

01:59:19.000 There's 500,000 plus people who voted in America County alone.

01:59:22.000 Only 248,000 of those voted in person.

01:59:25.000 So what does that mean?

01:59:26.000 Just do math.

01:59:27.000 This is basic logical math here, guys, is that there is likely still 25% of our voters close to it that have not yet had their voice heard.

01:59:38.000 And their voice, you know what it's saying?

01:59:41.000 Blake, Blake.

01:59:42.000 That's right.

01:59:43.000 Blake, And I'm telling you right now, that is being underrepresented in the media narrative.

01:59:50.000 No, is that?

01:59:51.000 So we have to stand alone on it.

01:59:52.000 Is that 25% in Maricopa or 25% statewide?

01:59:56.000 Statewide.

01:59:57.000 But still, it's the state.

01:59:59.000 It's across the board.

01:59:59.000 And most of those votes are in Maricopa County.

02:00:01.000 That's great.

02:00:02.000 That's good for Blake.

02:00:03.000 It's very good.

02:00:04.000 That's good for Blake.

02:00:05.000 And that's good for Blake in Tucson.

02:00:07.000 I'm telling you, Tucson's got that.

02:00:08.000 Once Pima starts reporting their day of drops, I think people are going to be shocked.

02:00:11.000 Do you know what people do in Tucson that are Republican?

02:00:14.000 They hide.

02:00:15.000 It's like New York City, right?

02:00:17.000 Or it's like D.C. You know this, Jack.

02:00:19.000 Pima's a problem, man.

02:00:20.000 We got to solve that. 0.85

02:00:21.000 You hide and then you come out, you crawl out of your hole on election day.

02:00:25.000 You vote and you go back and you hide because you don't want to get slaughtered by the left.

02:00:29.000 Wait, Charlie, I just got one. 0.91

02:00:30.000 Big losers, Charlie and Jack are conveniently out of the country when Trump announces they are afraid to associate with Trump and will not support him. 0.92

02:00:39.000 Bunch wait. 1.00

02:00:40.000 They're disloyal losers. 1.00

02:00:42.000 Someone said that. 1.00

02:00:42.000 Someone just said that. 1.00

02:00:43.000 Did someone really say that?

02:00:44.000 Someone really just said that.

02:00:45.000 This is what makes me just want to quit politics when I get stuff like that.

02:00:49.000 I'm going to be there.

02:00:50.000 Conveniently.

02:00:52.000 Everything's a plot.

02:00:52.000 Yeah, conveniently.

02:00:53.000 Everything's going to be debating at the Oxford Union and speaking at Cambridge.

02:00:56.000 But yeah, convenient.

02:00:58.000 Everything's literally a plot.

02:00:59.000 Everything's a plot.

02:00:59.000 Oh, my gosh.

02:01:00.000 All right.

02:01:00.000 Emails, freedom at charliekirk.com.

02:01:02.000 Do me a favor and subscribe to the Charlie Kirk Show podcast as we wait for more ballots.

02:01:05.000 And we go through here.

02:01:06.000 Also, waiting on Nevada as well.

02:01:09.000 I'd love your thoughts on Trump v. DeSantis.

02:01:11.000 Just curious.

02:01:13.000 Getting a lot here.

02:01:13.000 Someone says, Kim, I trust Trump.

02:01:15.000 He'll always have my vote.

02:01:16.000 He always speaks truth.

02:01:17.000 Sometimes it takes a while for us to see, but he always ends up telling the truth.

02:01:24.000 Someone says here, when I hear messages about Trump, I'm afraid they're all brainwashed.

02:01:29.000 I am worn out.

02:01:30.000 I liked him before, but I'm done now.

02:01:33.000 Okay.

02:01:36.000 Okay.

02:01:36.000 Subscribe to the Charlie Kirk Show podcast.

02:01:39.000 We deeply appreciate all of your support and backing.

02:01:42.000 That's right.

02:01:43.000 Someone just said, it's funny how the bad news for Democrats always drops on weekends.

02:01:47.000 That is an interesting thing, isn't it?

02:01:48.000 It's as if they want to have the deadest news cycle possible to when Carrie Lake becomes governor.

02:01:55.000 So it's going to be a big, big deal.

02:01:58.000 By the way, I could just tell by everyone who has emailed me here about the drops and about whether or not their vote has been tabulated.

02:02:06.000 There's going to be a very good result once the same day drops come through.

02:02:13.000 Tyler Boyer has news.

02:02:15.000 So yesterday we held the leadership elections in the Arizona State Senate.

02:02:22.000 And so This is how we're winning, even when Maricopa County isn't counting balance.

02:02:28.000 We're winning because Warren Peterson from Gilbert, who hails from Gilbert, he's been a long-standing member of the Arizona State Senate.

02:02:37.000 He is the understudy for Andy Biggs, who was he took over basically his job when Andy Biggs went to Congress, and he is one of the most conservative members that we have in the state legislature.

02:02:49.000 They just made him the Arizona Senate president yesterday.

02:02:53.000 And one of the first things he did was he made assignments for committees.

02:02:57.000 And guess who is our committee chair in Arizona for elections?

02:03:00.000 Warren Peterson.

02:03:01.000 No, it is Wendy Rogers.

02:03:02.000 Are you serious for elections?

02:03:05.000 Oh, that's amazing.

02:03:06.000 That's a big deal.

02:03:07.000 So if you want to see, so I tweeted something just tongue-in-cheek, and I'm just teasing for all your Floridians.

02:03:13.000 I'm teasing, but I'm sort of not.

02:03:15.000 Arizona, I said Arizona is going to make Florida look like California soon. 0.93

02:03:20.000 We're going to have Governor Carrie Lake.

02:03:22.000 We're going to have AG Abe Homeday.

02:03:24.000 We're going to have Mark Fincham.

02:03:26.000 Hopefully, we can get him across the finish line here.

02:03:28.000 We're going to have Warren Peterson as the Senate president.

02:03:30.000 And now Warren is going through, and we have the most conservative legislature I think we've ever had.

02:03:36.000 And it's like Wendy in elections.

02:03:37.000 We're going to have, they're going to announce, I haven't seen anything else.

02:03:40.000 And so I want to leave that to this because I'm leaving to everything publicly here.

02:03:43.000 But we're going to have some of the most conservative members ever that we've ever seen across the country in the legislature running the state.

02:03:50.000 So how's that different for Florida?

02:03:52.000 Well, Florida has a pretty moderate legislature.

02:03:55.000 So Governor DeSantis is great, but he has to work with essentially a very moderate legislature.

02:04:00.000 And it's getting better.

02:04:01.000 I think this election got a little bit better, but they're nowhere near.

02:04:04.000 It's a huge state.

02:04:05.000 They're nowhere near as agile as Arizona is going to be.

02:04:08.000 Arizona is in position to make Florida look like just like the appetizer to the main course here, which will be Arizona.

02:04:19.000 So I am extraordinarily excited about Governor Carrie Lake, extraordinarily excited about Abe, because when Kerry wins, Abe will have won.

02:04:27.000 And Warren Peterson is just, I'm telling you, he's just a stud.

02:04:30.000 And so tonight, I think we're going to try to have him on the stream for a little bit to talk about a little bit about Arizona.

02:04:34.000 Oh, that'll be great.

02:04:35.000 And the future of what Arizona is going to look like with a legislative agenda that's going to, again, just make every other, I think we're going to lead here in Arizona.

02:04:43.000 I think so.

02:04:44.000 I think it's going to be pretty amazing.

02:04:45.000 Email us freedom at charliekirk.com and subscribe to the Charlie Kirk Show podcast.

02:04:49.000 I'm going to play some tape here.

02:04:50.000 We haven't really played a lot of tape.

02:04:52.000 Can you resend the cut sheet, Ryan, please?

02:04:55.000 Look, there's so much good news to celebrate this week.

02:04:58.000 Nancy Pelosi, she's done.

02:04:59.000 Nancy Pelosi will no longer be Speaker of the House, and that is a great thing.

02:05:03.000 In fact, some of the modeling has improved where it looks as if Republicans could potentially have about a seven-seat majority, Tyler, which is a lot better than a two-seat majority.

02:05:13.000 Seven to ten is kind of that sweet spot.

02:05:16.000 Yeah.

02:05:16.000 Really good.

02:05:17.000 As long as it's as many Freedom Caucus members as we've got.

02:05:20.000 Yep. 0.99

02:05:20.000 And Ana Paulina is just really great. 0.99

02:05:22.000 So it looks as if there are 21 races yet to be called.

02:05:26.000 Is that right?

02:05:27.000 I'm trying to see how many there are left.

02:05:28.000 22, 22 left to be called?

02:05:31.000 22?

02:05:32.000 I think that's right.

02:05:32.000 22 races left to be called.

02:05:34.000 Yep.

02:05:34.000 And Republicans are leading in a lot of them.

02:05:38.000 And really, so in California, 22, California, 27, and Colorado, 8, Republicans have dramatically improved their chances.

02:05:48.000 And so which one is Schweikert's district?

02:05:50.000 Is that Arizona 6 or Arizona 1?

02:05:51.000 That's one.

02:05:53.000 Oh, man.

02:05:53.000 I just hope we can get that out of the way.

02:05:56.000 We can.

02:05:57.000 So that's what.

02:05:57.000 Kerry Lake is probably going to carry Schweikert.

02:05:59.000 So the story that's not being told right now is Arizona 1, really Arizona 4, too, because Arizona 4 is within.

02:06:07.000 He just called it yesterday as well.

02:06:10.000 25,000 of the votes behind.

02:06:11.000 But Arizona 1 is really the one we're waiting around for.

02:06:15.000 This drop to you in Maricoba County because that's going to be favorable for David Schweiker, who should be able to pull off the W based off of that return.

02:06:25.000 Yes.

02:06:25.000 He's only about a few thousand votes behind.

02:06:27.000 I think the latest is 5,000 votes.

02:06:29.000 It's really good.

02:06:30.000 And I mean, there's some of these other districts that have yet to be called.

02:06:33.000 Colorado 3 is Lauren Boebert.

02:06:35.000 That'll be called.

02:06:35.000 That'll get us to 212.

02:06:38.000 Oregon 5.

02:06:39.000 That's going to be a knife fight for a while, man.

02:06:42.000 My goodness.

02:06:42.000 Washington 3 with Joe Kent.

02:06:45.000 It looks like Joe's going to win that race.

02:06:47.000 The more ballots come in, which is great because a lot of the same days are coming in.

02:06:51.000 That'll get us to 213.

02:06:53.000 California 45 is going to be there.

02:06:55.000 It's Michelle Steele. 0.97

02:06:56.000 She's going to win. 0.99

02:06:56.000 She's a great candidate. 0.99

02:06:58.000 That'll be called and that'll get us to 214.

02:07:01.000 California 41 with Ken Calvert.

02:07:03.000 That's over with.

02:07:04.000 He's going to win that.

02:07:05.000 That gets 215.

02:07:07.000 And then Kevin Kiley, that's going to be called.

02:07:09.000 He's going to win.

02:07:10.000 That'll get us to 216.

02:07:11.000 And then Juan Siscamani actually hasn't.

02:07:14.000 I think Juan has been called by the AP, but it hasn't been tabulated yet.

02:07:18.000 So that really gets us to 217 without even getting into these other races that we're talking about here: Colorado 8 or California 27 or California 22 or Arizona 1.

02:07:29.000 And then we might be able to flip one or two of these other ones if more favorable ballots come in.

02:07:34.000 So we'll see.

02:07:37.000 Thanks so much for listening, everybody.

02:07:39.000 Email me your thoughts as always: freedom at charliekirk.com.

02:07:42.000 Thank you so much for listening.

02:07:44.000 God bless.

02:07:48.000 For more on many of these stories and news you can trust, go to CharlieKirk. com.

The Charlie Kirk Show - November 12, 2022

Maricopa Confidence-Incompetence with Gina Swoboda, Austin Smith, Tyler Bowyer, and Jack Posobiec

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