00:00:00.000Today in the Charlie Kirk Show, Richard Barris joins us and also a great commentator, Paolo, from Brazil, to explain what's happening in Brazil.
00:00:36.000We have a get out the vote operation this Saturday, get out the vote operation in Georgia, get out the vote operation in Michigan, get out the vote operation in Ohio, get out the vote operation in Wisconsin.
00:01:12.000We will not embrace the ideas that have destroyed countries, destroyed lives, and we are going to fight for freedom on campuses across the country.
00:02:49.000We're going to have, for the first time in my life, we're going to have more growth than China this year and less inflation than the U.S., which I know, not the greatest year for China or the U.S., but still a good accomplishment.
00:03:02.000The country is doing very well doing the reforms and all that.
00:03:07.000It went through the pandemic fairly well, all things considered.
00:03:11.000And so last Sunday, we had elections between Bolsonaro, the current president, and Lula.
00:03:20.000Lula is a socialist from the Workers' Party.
00:04:07.000It's the same as in the US, all the support from the mainstream media, which is completely leftist in Brazil, with all the support from our Hollywood, meaning the culture, entertainment, all the artists, all the academia, universities, the financial sector, everyone got together to rehabilitate and support Lula.
00:04:29.000Again, a guy convicted for corruption several times.
00:04:34.000All his ministers were convicted as well.
00:04:36.000Biggest scandal in the history of the country.
00:04:39.000And on the last Sunday, Lula won the elections by a very, very narrow margin.
00:04:47.000So it was 49.10 Bolsonaro and 50.9 Lula.
00:05:18.000Yeah, I know it sounds weird in some states here in the United States, but you actually have to go in one day in person and you have to show your ID.
00:10:28.000Look, you've helped build the wonderful My Pillow into the incredible company it is today.
00:10:32.000And I got to tell you, the things that they have, like the six-piece towel set, the two bath towels, the two hand towels, the two washclaws, game changer, the bed sheets, boom, knocked down to $29.98.
00:10:46.000But look, orders placed now through Christmas.
00:10:48.000We'll have an extended money-back guarantee through March 1st.
00:10:51.000It's an amazing way to end your year and do your Christmas shopping and support the wonderful, the amazing, patriotic Mike Lindell.
00:10:58.000Just go to mypillow.com and click on the radio listener square and use promo code Kirk.
00:11:03.000Call 800-875-0425 and use promo code Kirk.
00:12:17.000And so that was that was like very, very disturbing because Brazil, most of the things in Brazil, a little like the U.S., but more, even more so, because Brazil doesn't have that much, that many railroads.
00:12:32.000So most of the products in Brazil circulate by trucks.
00:12:36.000So the logistic in the country started to collapse very, very quickly.
00:12:42.000And Bolsonaro went on on his very brief speech, a two-minute speech, he said, well, let's not use the same methods as the left.
00:12:52.000So let's respect the people, people's right to come and go freely.
00:12:57.000Let's respect private property, but you can peacefully protest.
00:14:17.000So what happened today was very weird that people started going to the streets and not going to only to the streets, but go to the to military bases and to military headquarters, okay, like our Pentagon.
00:14:43.000They're asking for a military intervention.
00:14:46.000So in order to understand that, you need to understand that from 1964 to 1985, Brazil was under a military regime, military presidents elected indirectly.
00:15:00.000Because in 1964, the communists trying to coup in Brazil.
00:15:04.000Same thing they did in Cuba and most countries in Latin America.
00:15:08.000But when they tried that, the military intervened and then the military established a military regime, which was more conservative.
00:15:16.000My grandfather was actually the last president of that regime.
00:16:17.000The problem is that the left has the ability to transform democracy into a sort of a dictatorship.
00:16:22.000So Brazil right now is under censorship of the Supreme Court.
00:16:26.000They're under censorship on social media.
00:16:29.000A lot of civil liberties are being taken away.
00:16:32.000So right now, people are deciding between being ruled by a leftist establishment dictatorship and they're asking for a military intervention because we'd rather have a military back again.
00:16:51.000So do I. Rents are soaring at unprecedented highs.
00:16:58.000If you're renting or have a friend or family member, that is, now is a great time to make the move to homeownership.
00:17:04.000Look, you got to own renting, that's great, reset stuff.
00:17:07.000Andrew Del Rey and Todd Aveyan at Sierra Pacific Mortgage have helped so many people make that leap from renting to owning with lots of programs that offer first-time buyers assistance with little to no down payment needed.
00:17:19.000I encourage you right now to visit my buddies, their website.
00:17:28.000The thing I love about these guys is it's not about the transaction.
00:17:31.000They're helping you create a plan to help you reach your goals.
00:17:34.000Give them a call or go to their website, andrewandTodd.com.
00:17:37.000With today's still historically low interest rates, it's easier than you think to become a homeowner.
00:17:42.000I've relied on them and producer Andrew has as well.
00:17:45.000I highly recommend you take action now.
00:17:47.000And if you knew someone paying rent, tell them about Andrew and Todd.
00:17:50.000Go to andrewandtodd.com and tell them the Charlie Kirk show sent you.
00:17:57.000Joining us now is a man who has been calling the shots correctly for quite some time.
00:18:02.000And if I have anything to say about it, he's going to be Skyping or zooming in on election night because I think we could do some great things together and hopefully that historic night.
00:18:12.000Rich Barris from Big Data Polls, People's Pundit.
00:18:59.000Reading the early vote tee leaves is tough, and people never do it right.
00:19:03.000And I always caution people from doing it, but there are some things we can infer from it.
00:19:07.000I think it's very clear that our polling and what we have been talking about for a while now with the Hispanic vote is coming and bearing fruit.
00:19:15.000Look at Miami-Dade, but we're so far beyond Florida now.
00:19:18.000They didn't come out, Charlie, in Clark County, Nevada.
00:19:22.000It's not, was it the Harry Reid machine, or is that so many of these Hispanics no longer want to vote Democrat?
00:19:28.000So I think there is very clear evidence we're right.
00:21:27.000It's better than putting it in the mail, is what I'm trying to say, though.
00:21:30.000It's better than just sending it off into the mail into the distance.
00:21:33.000But the early voting returns, Rich, I mean, in-person early voting and or vote by mail, Democrats usually slaughter Republicans on it nationwide.
00:21:44.000I mean, you expect to be down on that, but it's conceivable because I mean, Arizona counts their elections like Nicaraguan elections, right?
00:21:52.000So it's going to be the first tranche.
00:21:54.000It's conceivable Kerry Lake will only be down a couple points in that first tranche, is it not?
00:22:43.000They wanted to hold their, I mean, some did, of course, you know, that's statistics, but the overwhelming majority said, I'm an election day voter and I'm going to vote for Mark Victor.
00:22:53.000I wish we would have, you know, we pulled the trigger before we had heard that.
00:22:57.000I almost wish we would have waited a few more hours and then we would have gotten that news and we could have, have you heard that Mark Victor dropped out and endorsed Blake Masters?
00:23:06.000So now who are you going to vote for, right?
00:24:29.000I mean, you're going to have some McCainite people that are registered Republicans that just, you know, vote Democrat because they hate themselves.
00:24:35.000But, you know, it's just, there's not as much drop off.
00:24:39.000You know, I think a lot of the Democrat modeling is messed up because there was a lot of Trump hatred in Arizona in that kind of upper middle class, suburban, we liked John McCain.
00:24:49.000We didn't like the way he went after it.
00:24:51.000I think that's a non-factor in this election.
00:24:54.000Yeah, I honestly, when we first polled this right before the primary and we did a Kerry Lake versus Hobbes hypothetical, Kerry Lake had a big chunk.
00:25:05.000She was doing better with independents than other Republicans.
00:25:08.000So it was still close because she actually had a one-point lead, but there was still a big chunk of Republicans who were saying, I don't know, or I'll vote for somebody else.
00:26:14.000Quinnipiak is R plus four and Republicans are carrying the Hispanic vote.
00:26:19.000White college degree women, big swing to Republicans.
00:26:24.000We're all seeing this, or I would say the consensus is seeing this.
00:26:27.000But Charlie, I want to caution because in 2014, in 2018, in 2020, national polling is simply put for the layman term, easier.
00:26:36.000And it's often you will see these trends before you will see them in the states.
00:26:40.000And sometimes pollsters just run out of time and we don't catch the full scope of what happened.
00:26:46.000And then that definitely happened in 2014.
00:26:49.000And I think it started earlier this time, but state polls are so bad, they're not picking it up.
00:26:55.000I'm only now seeing what that means in states like Pennsylvania, in Arizona, in Nevada, by the way, which I think we're going to have ours out soon.
00:27:03.000I mean, Laxalt, dude, he's going to win.
00:27:07.000I mean, the white vote widened out to something we're more used to, and Hispanics really didn't budge.
00:27:15.000So, yeah, I want to go around the horn with you, Rich, here, and you're doing a great job.
00:29:06.000I think it's, I mean, that's the last ingredient, right?
00:29:10.000Which is, do you bring three friends to the polls?
00:29:13.000I mean, I think the Democrats really don't know how big that turnout is going to be.
00:29:17.000But if we're even close to presidential style turnout, I mean, we're going to see something that we've never seen before.
00:29:23.000If Georgia's any indication, because Georgia is warming up to early vote, and maybe, you know, 15, 20% will be election day vote, they've completely flipped.
00:29:33.000And they did that in the primary as well.
00:29:35.000We saw a massive historic turnout in Georgia.
00:29:38.000If that's what happens, you know, you know, across the board, Charlie, and you use the term overwhelm the system, you have to do that.
00:29:46.000They want nothing more than for you to stay home.
00:29:50.000And by the way, when we talk about all the crazy stuff that could go on, it's much easier if you stay home.
00:29:55.000If you cast your vote, you're taking that vote off the table.
00:29:57.000If you get what I'm saying, people cast your vote.
00:30:00.000So, yeah, I'm thinking it probably will be a little bit below 2018 only because Democrats are not at all in the enthusiasm levels that we saw in 2018.
00:30:12.000But Republicans are on par with like, you know, they're up there, Charlie.
00:31:03.000So it's going to throw you off quite a bit.
00:31:07.000And then the Election Day vote obviously will get counted in a state like Arizona, but it will be very different depending on and in places that are total nightmares and just chaotic disasters like Pennsylvania.
00:31:18.000They're going to, there's going to be an early vote drop that's going to be very big.
00:31:22.000It's going to be a slaughter fest, big Democrat margins.
00:31:25.000Then they'll count the election day vote.
00:31:27.000We'll get an idea of where that vote really is going to end up.
00:31:30.000And then we'll have to wait for late arriving ballots.
00:31:33.000And it's very much the same way in North Carolina.
00:33:07.000You know, if it's close in New Hampshire, too, then Democrats are going to have a very bad night.
00:33:12.000But Baldak always had a chance because when we look at things that matter, the fundamentals, they favored the Republican candidate inevitably.
00:33:20.000But the question of Maggie Assan, her favorables, her approvals, and the question of whether or not you think she deserves re-election, that all was always negative for her.
00:34:31.000I think their turnout model is a little too rosy for Democrats.
00:34:35.000The bottom line, even they have Zeldon doing very well in the five boroughs, and it really will come down to that.
00:34:40.000We know he's going to win Suffolk and Nassau, right?
00:34:44.000All those areas where Republicans used to win, but have been struggling, even if they edge him out a little bit.
00:34:49.000And upstate, he'll probably win Clinton, you know, in areas where at the presidential level, Republicans barely lose.
00:34:57.000But at the bottom, really in the bottom of the ninth, if it's close, what it will come down to is how well Lee Zeldon does in the five boroughs.
00:35:05.000And if you look at, for instance, the Quinnipiac poll, even if they're off by the overall, not the sub-sample era, overall, the sampling era, and Zeldin does three points better, four points better, he's going to do it.