The Charlie Kirk Show - Seriously, What's Up With Brazil? with Paulo Figueiredo Filho and Rich Baris

00:00:00.000 Hey, everybody.

00:00:00.000 Today in the Charlie Kirk Show, Richard Barris joins us and also a great commentator, Paolo, from Brazil, to explain what's happening in Brazil.

00:00:08.000 Very confusing, very important.

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00:00:51.000 Charlie, what you've done is incredible here.

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00:01:36.000 There is a tremendous amount of confusion regarding Brazil.

00:01:42.000 Brazil is a great country, and it's very, very, let's just say, murky with what is happening in the great country of Brazil.

00:01:53.000 And with us now is someone to help us hopefully get some clarity on this.

00:01:57.000 He's a Brazilian journalist at JP News.

00:01:59.000 It's Paulo Figuerito.

00:02:02.000 Hope I said that right.

00:02:03.000 Paolo, welcome to the program.

00:02:05.000 Thank you, Charlie.

00:02:06.000 You did it perfectly.

00:02:07.000 That's my last name.

00:02:08.000 Hard to get it right since the beginning.

00:02:11.000 All right.

00:02:11.000 Well, I tried my best.

00:02:13.000 So, Paolo, I have many questions here, and thank you for the time.

00:02:16.000 First, let's just start with the most obvious.

00:02:18.000 What the heck is going on right now in Brazil?

00:02:20.000 Oh, my God.

00:02:22.000 That's the longest question.

00:02:24.000 So much going on.

00:02:25.000 So, Brazil has been under the administration of President Bolsonaro, which is a great friend of President Trump.

00:02:34.000 He is considered the Trump of Latin America, very conservative, more towards a national populist view of the world.

00:02:43.000 He's a friend of the common man, common worker.

00:02:48.000 And Brazil has been doing great.

00:02:49.000 We're going to have, for the first time in my life, we're going to have more growth than China this year and less inflation than the U.S., which I know, not the greatest year for China or the U.S., but still a good accomplishment.

00:03:02.000 The country is doing very well doing the reforms and all that.

00:03:07.000 It went through the pandemic fairly well, all things considered.

00:03:11.000 And so last Sunday, we had elections between Bolsonaro, the current president, and Lula.

00:03:20.000 Lula is a socialist from the Workers' Party.

00:03:24.000 He's been in power from 2003.

00:03:26.000 He was in power from 2003 to 2014.

00:03:31.000 And in 2012, I'm sorry.

00:03:34.000 And in 2015, his successor, a lady, was impeached for defrauding public accounts.

00:03:41.000 He was also convicted three times for corruption.

00:03:45.000 Unfortunately, the Supreme Court deemed all his trials invalid.

00:03:52.000 And by the Supreme Courts, I mean justice appointed by him when he was president.

00:03:57.000 So he got away with it.

00:04:00.000 And the whole establishment rehabilitated him to run for office again.

00:04:05.000 So he ran with all the support.

00:04:07.000 It's the same as in the US, all the support from the mainstream media, which is completely leftist in Brazil, with all the support from our Hollywood, meaning the culture, entertainment, all the artists, all the academia, universities, the financial sector, everyone got together to rehabilitate and support Lula.

00:04:29.000 Again, a guy convicted for corruption several times.

00:04:34.000 All his ministers were convicted as well.

00:04:36.000 Biggest scandal in the history of the country.

00:04:39.000 And on the last Sunday, Lula won the elections by a very, very narrow margin.

00:04:47.000 So it was 49.10 Bolsonaro and 50.9 Lula.

00:04:55.000 Okay.

00:04:55.000 So it was very, very narrow.

00:04:58.000 So in Brazil, it's all electronic voting.

00:05:01.000 Okay.

00:05:01.000 Not like in the U.S., there's no paper.

00:05:03.000 Really?

00:05:04.000 Yeah, there's no absentee ballots.

00:05:06.000 So you go in person to do it or you do it on your cell phone or what?

00:05:10.000 No, it's good.

00:05:10.000 You do it in person.

00:05:11.000 That's a good part.

00:05:12.000 You don't have to show ID.

00:05:13.000 So that's what a concept. 0.99

00:05:16.000 Bunch of racist.

00:05:18.000 Yeah, I know it sounds weird in some states here in the United States, but you actually have to go in one day in person and you have to show your ID.

00:05:27.000 Okay.

00:05:27.000 So that's the good part.

00:05:29.000 The bad part is that it's all electronic, meaning there's no way to audit or recount or anything.

00:05:39.000 Once you put your vote, vote goes in a machine, machine sends it to a central computer, and the computer tells who won.

00:05:47.000 And the problem is the people that run the central computer are the same guys that freed Lula.

00:05:55.000 Brazil has the supreme electoral court.

00:05:58.000 And the guy that's the president of this court, it's an enemy.

00:06:01.000 It's an open, declared enemy of Bolsonaro and one of the guys that freed Lula.

00:06:07.000 Okay.

00:06:08.000 And during this whole process, the process was very unfair to Bolsonaro, very unfair.

00:06:14.000 And everyone knows it.

00:06:15.000 Bolsonaro, Brazil has a system that the advertising for the candidates is paid by the public.

00:06:26.000 It's not paid by the campaigns.

00:06:28.000 Taxpayers.

00:06:28.000 It's all taxpayers.

00:06:30.000 Yes.

00:06:31.000 So it's all taxpayer funded.

00:06:33.000 So what happened is that Lula got way, way, way more ads than Bolsonaro.

00:06:38.000 Bolsonaro filed a lawsuit in court complaining about that.

00:06:43.000 But surprise, surprise, same as in the U.S., the court said, no, we're not going to look, not even going to look into it.

00:06:50.000 That's so correct.

00:06:52.000 So yeah, the politics in Brazil are extremely similar to the U.S.

00:06:56.000 Yeah, it sounds like it.

00:06:57.000 And the way the establishment treats Bolsonaro is exactly the way that.

00:07:02.000 Let me ask you a question.

00:07:03.000 So if it's all machine voting, why is it that there were anywhere between five to six million invalid votes?

00:07:10.000 That, I mean, you see the tabulation.

00:07:13.000 Oh, it's because you have the opportunity when you're voting.

00:07:17.000 You can even vote blank or new.

00:07:20.000 And that's when you, well, you can even vote wrongly, meaning it's a number.

00:07:29.000 So every two candidates have a number.

00:07:31.000 Bolsonaro was 22.

00:07:32.000 Lula was 13.

00:07:34.000 If you type, for example, 17, it's considered new because there's no candidate with 17.

00:07:39.000 It's going to appear on the screen.

00:07:41.000 That's new.

00:07:42.000 You want to confirm it and you click confirm it.

00:07:44.000 So that's new.

00:07:45.000 And you have the option.

00:07:46.000 There's a key that you press and it's blank.

00:07:49.000 And when you do it, you press blank and the screen shows that you want to vote blank.

00:07:53.000 And it means your vote won't be tabulated.

00:07:57.000 The reason they have that in Brazil is because voting is mandatory in Brazil.

00:08:02.000 It's not optional, like in the U.S. You have to go vote.

00:08:05.000 Otherwise, you get fined.

00:08:07.000 So, and you have to go vote, but you don't need to vote in any of the candidates.

00:08:11.000 So, you can vote even either blank or new.

00:08:13.000 So, these are that's extraordinary.

00:08:16.000 Wow.

00:08:18.000 Don't get me started on that.

00:08:20.000 Mandatory voting, which of course always favors the left.

00:08:24.000 It has always been, and that's why it's so in place.

00:08:28.000 So, the problem is, and that's very weird because it's the first time it happened in history.

00:08:33.000 The way that the data behaved was very weird.

00:08:38.000 Same anomalies that we had similarly as we had in the U.S. in some states.

00:08:45.000 Like the data, Bolsonaro started way ahead on the count, and then Lula started getting votes out of nowhere.

00:08:52.000 And then in an almost fixed rate, and the data behaved, and trust me, I'm an economist as well.

00:09:00.000 So I'm used to data.

00:09:02.000 The data did behave very really.

00:09:05.000 We can't prove there was a fraud fraud on the counting, but definitely weird.

00:09:11.000 What we can say, and that we can say as a fact, is that was a fraud in the process.

00:09:16.000 Bolsonaro was very, very, very, it was very unfair to him.

00:09:20.000 The court decisions, a lot of court decisions against him.

00:09:24.000 He couldn't even use, he couldn't do live, like live streaming.

00:09:28.000 Remember the controversy?

00:09:30.000 This sounds like our election in 2020.

00:09:32.000 Yes, very much, very much.

00:09:34.000 So now Lula won.

00:09:36.000 And Bolsonaro didn't give a speech, a speech, didn't concede for roughly two and a half days.

00:09:44.000 Okay.

00:09:46.000 And yesterday, he gave a speech.

00:09:49.000 He didn't concede.

00:09:50.000 He said, well, I'm going to follow the Constitution.

00:09:54.000 Thank you for the 58 million votes that I got.

00:09:57.000 It was, he was the, he got more votes than the last election when he was elected.

00:10:02.000 Sounds familiar.

00:10:03.000 Sounds familiar.

00:10:04.000 I know he does.

00:10:05.000 And he thanked the vote.

00:10:07.000 He said, I'm always going to follow the Constitution.

00:10:10.000 Thank you.

00:10:11.000 The country has been having since Monday a lot of protests and especially truck drivers blocking the streets.

00:10:26.000 Hey, everybody, Charlie Kirk here.

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00:11:29.000 Paolo, I have to ask you, there seems to be a growing amount of civil unrest in the streets.

00:11:34.000 Is that normal and to be expected after an election?

00:11:37.000 Some people are talking about a military coup or military auditing the votes.

00:11:40.000 What's going on?

00:11:42.000 Well, and that's definitely an interesting subject.

00:11:47.000 So after Lula was declared by the court the winner, Brazil started to see some very, very intense civil unrest.

00:11:57.000 Basically, the truck drivers started blocking the roads and we had over 300.

00:12:07.000 And today we found out there was actually over 600 points of road blockages throughout the country.

00:12:16.000 Okay.

00:12:17.000 And so that was that was like very, very disturbing because Brazil, most of the things in Brazil, a little like the U.S., but more, even more so, because Brazil doesn't have that much, that many railroads.

00:12:32.000 So most of the products in Brazil circulate by trucks.

00:12:36.000 So the logistic in the country started to collapse very, very quickly.

00:12:42.000 And Bolsonaro went on on his very brief speech, a two-minute speech, he said, well, let's not use the same methods as the left.

00:12:52.000 So let's respect the people, people's right to come and go freely.

00:12:57.000 Let's respect private property, but you can peacefully protest.

00:13:03.000 Okay.

00:13:05.000 And he emphasized that.

00:13:06.000 I think he learned the lesson from Trump because Trump said, peacefully march, but the press just got rid of the peacefully.

00:13:14.000 So Bolsonaro emphasized that very much, the peacefully part.

00:13:20.000 At least somebody learned from that.

00:13:22.000 Yeah, we have the we're lucky because Brazilian politics is like the U.S. politics, but two years before.

00:13:30.000 So it sounds like we learned from.

00:13:32.000 Geez, it sounds like it's a lagging indicator.

00:13:34.000 It's like a lagging way.

00:13:36.000 It is.

00:13:37.000 It is.

00:13:38.000 For me, I live in the U.S. I've been here for seven years.

00:13:41.000 So for me, it's always like very surprising to see how the left copies everything that the Democratic Party has been doing.

00:13:50.000 I don't think it's published.

00:13:51.000 By the way, it's not a coincidence.

00:13:52.000 The CIA is likely importing it into your home country.

00:13:57.000 Well, the CIA before that, the Soviets, the Chinese Communist Party has a big role in that as well.

00:14:03.000 So it's a big plot.

00:14:04.000 So do you think a military coup is likely?

00:14:08.000 So today, today's a holiday in Brazil.

00:14:11.000 It's like the day of the dead.

00:14:13.000 Okay.

00:14:15.000 And it's a national holiday.

00:14:17.000 So what happened today was very weird that people started going to the streets and not going to only to the streets, but go to the to military bases and to military headquarters, okay, like our Pentagon.

00:14:32.000 And we're seeing thousands of people.

00:14:35.000 I mean, it's unbelievable.

00:14:38.000 I don't know how many because the press is not covering.

00:14:41.000 What are they doing?

00:14:43.000 They're asking for a military intervention.

00:14:46.000 So in order to understand that, you need to understand that from 1964 to 1985, Brazil was under a military regime, military presidents elected indirectly.

00:15:00.000 Because in 1964, the communists trying to coup in Brazil.

00:15:04.000 Same thing they did in Cuba and most countries in Latin America.

00:15:08.000 But when they tried that, the military intervened and then the military established a military regime, which was more conservative.

00:15:16.000 My grandfather was actually the last president of that regime.

00:15:20.000 Really?

00:15:21.000 Yeah.

00:15:21.000 That's fascinating.

00:15:22.000 And there was a peaceful transition to the civil governments again.

00:15:28.000 All the institutions worked, Congress, the courts, everything.

00:15:33.000 We had moderate freedom of speech.

00:15:36.000 You couldn't criticize the regime, but it could criticize.

00:15:39.000 But the problem is the country boom during those years.

00:15:43.000 Brazil was the second largest economy in the world when the military took over.

00:15:50.000 When they left, Brazil was the eighth. 0.63

00:15:51.000 So economically, the country did tremendously.

00:15:55.000 The regular citizen, the crime rates were very low.

00:16:01.000 It was a safe country.

00:16:02.000 It was.

00:16:03.000 It was a safe country.

00:16:05.000 And so could you say that as soon as, quote unquote, they brought in democracy.

00:16:10.000 I mean, there has been shenanigans ever since.

00:16:12.000 Is that fair to say?

00:16:15.000 Democracy is great.

00:16:17.000 The problem is that the left has the ability to transform democracy into a sort of a dictatorship.

00:16:22.000 So Brazil right now is under censorship of the Supreme Court.

00:16:26.000 They're under censorship on social media.

00:16:29.000 A lot of civil liberties are being taken away.

00:16:32.000 So right now, people are deciding between being ruled by a leftist establishment dictatorship and they're asking for a military intervention because we'd rather have a military back again.

00:16:43.000 Phenomenal commentary.

00:16:44.000 Thank you, Paulo.

00:16:45.000 I hope everyone checks you out on social media.

00:16:47.000 Really, we'll have you back on soon, and I hope everything remains peaceful in Brazil.

00:16:50.000 Thank you.

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00:17:57.000 Joining us now is a man who has been calling the shots correctly for quite some time.

00:18:02.000 And if I have anything to say about it, he's going to be Skyping or zooming in on election night because I think we could do some great things together and hopefully that historic night.

00:18:12.000 Rich Barris from Big Data Polls, People's Pundit.

00:18:15.000 Rich, welcome back to the program.

00:18:17.000 And thanks for having me back as always, Charlie.

00:18:20.000 Zoom would be better.

00:18:21.000 Whatever.

00:18:21.000 Zoom's clearer for me.

00:18:22.000 Yeah, I know that.

00:18:23.000 I actually Skype.

00:18:25.000 Skype drives me nuts, and I think it drives our wonderful tech team nuts.

00:18:28.000 Skype is the worst.

00:18:29.000 So, okay.

00:18:29.000 Yeah.

00:18:30.000 So, Rich, let's just start big picture.

00:18:33.000 How are you feeling six days out from the midterms?

00:18:36.000 What do you think is the state of the race?

00:18:38.000 So, big picture, Charlie.

00:18:40.000 You know, we're still struggling to reach certain voters, and yet Republicans are doing this well.

00:18:48.000 So, you know, I'm trying to explain to people the significance.

00:18:53.000 We, and you and I have been talking about things like the Hispanic vote for a while.

00:18:57.000 Now, that is very clearly showing up.

00:18:59.000 Reading the early vote tee leaves is tough, and people never do it right.

00:19:03.000 And I always caution people from doing it, but there are some things we can infer from it.

00:19:07.000 I think it's very clear that our polling and what we have been talking about for a while now with the Hispanic vote is coming and bearing fruit.

00:19:15.000 Look at Miami-Dade, but we're so far beyond Florida now.

00:19:18.000 They didn't come out, Charlie, in Clark County, Nevada.

00:19:22.000 It's not, was it the Harry Reid machine, or is that so many of these Hispanics no longer want to vote Democrat?

00:19:28.000 So I think there is very clear evidence we're right.

00:19:28.000 All right.

00:19:31.000 In Arizona, we're in Arizona.

00:19:34.000 Today will be the last day of interviews.

00:19:36.000 And I'm stunned by how well Blake Masters and Kerry Lake are doing with Hispanic voters.

00:19:41.000 What are you hearing?

00:19:41.000 Especially Kerry Lake.

00:19:42.000 What are you hearing?

00:19:43.000 Yeah, Kerry has a lot of Latino Hispanic support.

00:19:45.000 What are you hearing?

00:19:46.000 Man, the most likely Hispanic voter to vote is a Kerry Lake voter.

00:19:52.000 So if she edged out Hobbes among Hispanics overall, it'll be because they were so pumped to vote. 0.85

00:19:59.000 Look, early voting is basically done in Arizona.

00:20:02.000 I mean, so, I mean, it's over and we know what the numbers look like.

00:20:06.000 They don't look great for Democrats.

00:20:08.000 I don't care what all some of these people are.

00:20:11.000 They're trying not to doom over the poll numbers nationally and in some of these battleground states.

00:20:16.000 So they're looking for, you know, little diamonds in the rough.

00:20:19.000 And the early vote is the new one this week, right?

00:20:22.000 Well, look at how well we did in Pennsylvania.

00:20:25.000 You're well below your 2020 levels.

00:20:27.000 In North Carolina, Democrats, their advantage is the lowest it has ever been.

00:20:32.000 In Arizona, they did not come out.

00:20:34.000 In Cork County, no firewall.

00:20:37.000 In Arizona, we're only down a couple points.

00:20:39.000 Republicans are in early voting returns.

00:20:41.000 We don't know how independents are voting, but we think they're skewing our way, which is great.

00:20:46.000 And back in 2020, it was an eight-point deficit.

00:20:49.000 And so, Charlie, we're talking about a six to eight point early voting deficit and rich.

00:20:56.000 And when I go to events, we were there last night with Carrie Lake, 1,300 people.

00:21:00.000 I say, who plans to vote on election day?

00:21:01.000 Every hand goes up.

00:21:03.000 Well, this is the thing.

00:21:04.000 And I know the Arizona Republican Party is trying to get people not to drop their ballot off on Election Day.

00:21:10.000 And I heard you were one of those voters.

00:21:12.000 But 15%, 15%, they're getting their ballot in the mail and they're holding it and they refuse to drop it off early.

00:21:20.000 You're a holder. 0.55

00:21:20.000 I'm a holder. 0.55

00:21:21.000 That's going to take time.

00:21:23.000 That's going to mean those ballots will take time to count, but you're good with that.

00:21:26.000 I'm good with it.

00:21:27.000 It's better than putting it in the mail, is what I'm trying to say, though.

00:21:30.000 It's better than just sending it off into the mail into the distance.

00:21:33.000 But the early voting returns, Rich, I mean, in-person early voting and or vote by mail, Democrats usually slaughter Republicans on it nationwide.

00:21:42.000 That's right.

00:21:43.000 And it is not a slaughter.

00:21:44.000 I mean, you expect to be down on that, but it's conceivable because I mean, Arizona counts their elections like Nicaraguan elections, right?

00:21:52.000 So it's going to be the first tranche.

00:21:54.000 It's conceivable Kerry Lake will only be down a couple points in that first tranche, is it not?

00:21:58.000 And I'm looking at it right now.

00:21:58.000 It is.

00:22:01.000 And I got to tell you, this is a different race than we polled even a few days ago.

00:22:07.000 You want to hear something really interesting on the Senate level?

00:22:09.000 The first night of polling, we did hear Mark Victor was about to drop out.

00:22:14.000 It didn't get reported until the next day, but we had heard from multiple people.

00:22:18.000 Mark Victor is out.

00:22:19.000 He's going to endorse Blake Masters.

00:22:20.000 Libertarian.

00:22:21.000 That day.

00:22:22.000 Libertarian.

00:22:22.000 Yeah.

00:22:23.000 That day he was receiving 3% of the vote in the nightly interviews.

00:22:27.000 We collected about 300 and change.

00:22:29.000 The next day, he was down below one and a half.

00:22:31.000 And guess where all that vote went?

00:22:32.000 Well, so that's how attentive the libertarian voters are.

00:22:36.000 Is that right?

00:22:38.000 None of them wanted to vote early.

00:22:39.000 That's another boon for Blake Masters.

00:22:41.000 None of them wanted to vote early.

00:22:43.000 They wanted to hold their, I mean, some did, of course, you know, that's statistics, but the overwhelming majority said, I'm an election day voter and I'm going to vote for Mark Victor.

00:22:52.000 Well, now that's over.

00:22:53.000 I wish we would have, you know, we pulled the trigger before we had heard that.

00:22:57.000 I almost wish we would have waited a few more hours and then we would have gotten that news and we could have, have you heard that Mark Victor dropped out and endorsed Blake Masters?

00:23:06.000 So now who are you going to vote for, right?

00:23:08.000 But it's too late for that now.

00:23:09.000 So we'll just have to.

00:23:10.000 But what I can see is that Victor's support has fallen.

00:23:14.000 So these people knew that Mark Victor dropped out and endorsed Blake Masters because he fell masters ticked up.

00:23:21.000 So, and very clear.

00:23:23.000 Samples overall, 62% Maricopa.

00:23:26.000 Here's another fun fact.

00:23:27.000 We know registered voter, it should be R plus five, the sample that we've collected so far.

00:23:33.000 Overall, it should be R plus five, roughly 38% Republican, 33% Democrat, the rest Independent.

00:23:42.000 Yet it's not.

00:23:43.000 It's only 29% Democrat, 28% Democrat.

00:23:47.000 So once again, in Arizona, 5% of registered voters who are Democrats refuse to self-identify.

00:23:54.000 So when we call them or we text them, they refuse to tell us that they're a Democrat.

00:23:59.000 So they're either pretending to be independents or they're spoiled on their party.

00:24:04.000 They're disenfranchised.

00:24:06.000 We saw this with Republicans in 18.

00:24:09.000 This is a bad sign for an incumbent party when part of your own vote doesn't want to self-identify as your party.

00:24:16.000 It's a bad sign.

00:24:18.000 It tells you also on the Republican side, you're going to have more Republicans vote through on Republican.

00:24:24.000 On the Democrat side, you'll have more defections.

00:24:26.000 Is that fair to say?

00:24:27.000 So they'll drop more than Republican.

00:24:29.000 I mean, you're going to have some McCainite people that are registered Republicans that just, you know, vote Democrat because they hate themselves.

00:24:35.000 But, you know, it's just, there's not as much drop off.

00:24:38.000 And that's also in Arizona.

00:24:39.000 You know, I think a lot of the Democrat modeling is messed up because there was a lot of Trump hatred in Arizona in that kind of upper middle class, suburban, we liked John McCain.

00:24:49.000 We didn't like the way he went after it.

00:24:51.000 I think that's a non-factor in this election.

00:24:54.000 Yeah, I honestly, when we first polled this right before the primary and we did a Kerry Lake versus Hobbes hypothetical, Kerry Lake had a big chunk.

00:25:05.000 She was doing better with independents than other Republicans.

00:25:08.000 So it was still close because she actually had a one-point lead, but there was still a big chunk of Republicans who were saying, I don't know, or I'll vote for somebody else.

00:25:16.000 Maybe I'll write somebody in.

00:25:17.000 She won these people over.

00:25:18.000 This is a wrap.

00:25:20.000 She is overwhelmingly winning a good enough chunk of the Republican base. 0.92

00:25:25.000 And again, even if they don't show up in exit polls as defections, meaning they don't tell the exit pollster, I'm a Democrat.

00:25:32.000 I'm telling you, they're going to be in the independent margin and they're going to defect.

00:25:36.000 So they may just come across as an independent voter who went Republican this time.

00:25:41.000 The generic ballot, really ugly in Arizona, really ugly.

00:25:45.000 So O'Halloran is done.

00:25:47.000 And this is another point, one I want to bring myself to, because that brings in the suburban white woman, a district like that. 1.00

00:25:47.000 He's finished. 1.00

00:25:54.000 It's no longer, and Schweikert is another one who has to contend with that.

00:25:57.000 It's no longer about the Hispanic vote shift.

00:26:00.000 All of these big generic ballots, leads that are coming out for Republicans.

00:26:04.000 You know, another one, by the way, Quinnipiak above everyone just came out with a registered voter, Republican plus four.

00:26:11.000 Republicans carrying the Hispanic vote.

00:26:14.000 Stop it.

00:26:14.000 Quinnipiak is R plus four and Republicans are carrying the Hispanic vote.

00:26:19.000 White college degree women, big swing to Republicans. 1.00

00:26:24.000 We're all seeing this, or I would say the consensus is seeing this.

00:26:27.000 But Charlie, I want to caution because in 2014, in 2018, in 2020, national polling is simply put for the layman term, easier.

00:26:36.000 And it's often you will see these trends before you will see them in the states.

00:26:40.000 And sometimes pollsters just run out of time and we don't catch the full scope of what happened.

00:26:46.000 And then that definitely happened in 2014.

00:26:49.000 And I think it started earlier this time, but state polls are so bad, they're not picking it up.

00:26:55.000 I'm only now seeing what that means in states like Pennsylvania, in Arizona, in Nevada, by the way, which I think we're going to have ours out soon.

00:27:03.000 I mean, Laxalt, dude, he's going to win.

00:27:07.000 I mean, the white vote widened out to something we're more used to, and Hispanics really didn't budge. 1.00

00:27:15.000 So, yeah, I want to go around the horn with you, Rich, here, and you're doing a great job.

00:27:18.000 Yeah, let's do it.

00:27:19.000 For everyone, we'll bounce around, but I want our audience to know it's People's Pundit, big data poll, Rich is the best.

00:27:24.000 But, Rich, let me just ask the obvious question.

00:27:26.000 What could go wrong?

00:27:28.000 I guess the only thing that could go wrong is if we stay at home and we don't see that overwhelming surge.

00:27:34.000 Is that right?

00:27:34.000 Am I missing something?

00:27:36.000 No, you nailed it, Charlie.

00:27:37.000 That's it.

00:27:38.000 The only thing that can go wrong is that Republicans and independent leaning, you know, Republican leaning independents don't show up.

00:27:46.000 I mean, that's really it.

00:27:48.000 In Pennsylvania, for instance, and I know you want to go around, but you know, that's great.

00:27:51.000 Pennsylvania has this huge lead on election day, huge lead on election day.

00:27:56.000 But he's getting slaughtered in what's been cast in early vote.

00:27:59.000 So, you know, if they don't show up in big numbers, you know, then that's a problem.

00:28:04.000 But the good news is 90% of Republicans told us they were going to vote on election day, 90%.

00:28:10.000 And 70% roughly of independents told us that they would vote on election day.

00:28:17.000 So, you know, that, and these voters have the vote history to back them up.

00:28:20.000 However, there are some states where we are seeing new voters and, you know, Republicans have the edge with them.

00:28:27.000 So in Pennsylvania, it's not one of them.

00:28:29.000 New voters is skewing Democrat.

00:28:31.000 But again, that's only because all they're looking at right now is early vote.

00:28:36.000 Come election day, I think that's going to change.

00:28:38.000 You know, from more early vote states like Georgia and Texas, Florida, we're seeing new voters absolutely favor Republicans.

00:28:47.000 So it's just that Pennsylvania is more of an election day state.

00:28:50.000 And you, again, I got to emphasize this again.

00:28:52.000 You nailed it.

00:28:53.000 That's what could go wrong.

00:28:54.000 You show up to vote, Republicans show up to vote.

00:28:57.000 They're going to have a very good night.

00:29:00.000 I'm telling you, if we have the same day election turnout that I think we're going to have, I think we're going to overwhelm the system.

00:29:06.000 I really do.

00:29:06.000 I think it's, I mean, that's the last ingredient, right?

00:29:10.000 Which is, do you bring three friends to the polls?

00:29:13.000 I mean, I think the Democrats really don't know how big that turnout is going to be.

00:29:17.000 But if we're even close to presidential style turnout, I mean, we're going to see something that we've never seen before.

00:29:23.000 If Georgia's any indication, because Georgia is warming up to early vote, and maybe, you know, 15, 20% will be election day vote, they've completely flipped.

00:29:33.000 And they did that in the primary as well.

00:29:35.000 We saw a massive historic turnout in Georgia.

00:29:38.000 If that's what happens, you know, you know, across the board, Charlie, and you use the term overwhelm the system, you have to do that.

00:29:46.000 They want nothing more than for you to stay home.

00:29:49.000 That's what they want.

00:29:50.000 And by the way, when we talk about all the crazy stuff that could go on, it's much easier if you stay home.

00:29:55.000 If you cast your vote, you're taking that vote off the table.

00:29:57.000 If you get what I'm saying, people cast your vote.

00:30:00.000 So, yeah, I'm thinking it probably will be a little bit below 2018 only because Democrats are not at all in the enthusiasm levels that we saw in 2018.

00:30:12.000 But Republicans are on par with like, you know, they're up there, Charlie.

00:30:17.000 They're up there.

00:30:18.000 Yeah.

00:30:19.000 Just need to remind all of you to remain calm on election night.

00:30:22.000 If it looks like everybody, everything is going crazy and you don't know who's winning and what's going on.

00:30:27.000 And it's going to take a while, right, Rich?

00:30:29.000 They say voting week.

00:30:31.000 Yeah, Charlie, you know, each state is different.

00:30:34.000 Yours, Arizona, it's going to be like the primary was.

00:30:38.000 Washington state, you know, if that Senate race does end up closer than we like, we think it will, we won't know for days and days.

00:30:46.000 I was just looking during the break on Arizona and, you know, those voters we were just talking about.

00:30:52.000 If you're holding your ballot and you're going to drop it off on election day, that is an 80% Kerry Lake vote.

00:31:00.000 It's huge.

00:31:01.000 It's 77% Blake Masters.

00:31:03.000 So it's going to throw you off quite a bit.

00:31:07.000 And then the Election Day vote obviously will get counted in a state like Arizona, but it will be very different depending on and in places that are total nightmares and just chaotic disasters like Pennsylvania.

00:31:18.000 They're going to, there's going to be an early vote drop that's going to be very big.

00:31:22.000 It's going to be a slaughter fest, big Democrat margins.

00:31:25.000 Then they'll count the election day vote.

00:31:27.000 We'll get an idea of where that vote really is going to end up.

00:31:30.000 And then we'll have to wait for late arriving ballots.

00:31:33.000 And it's very much the same way in North Carolina.

00:31:36.000 I know.

00:31:37.000 I mean, Pennsylvania will be all week.

00:31:39.000 Pennsylvania is going to be always. 0.56

00:31:41.000 But we should know.

00:31:42.000 I mean, if Carrie Lake is only down a couple points with mail and ballots, if she's down like four or five points, she's going to win. 1.00

00:31:49.000 So that's over what she can do.

00:31:52.000 Her margins are so big on elections.

00:31:53.000 She could be down 10 points. 0.66

00:31:54.000 She could do it if she's down.

00:31:55.000 She could be down 10 points. 0.66

00:31:57.000 But if she's down four or five, which I think she will be, I'm going to tell our audience, like, this is a great sign for Carrie.

00:32:04.000 But I think Blake Master, if Kerry's down three or four and Blake is down seven or eight, we're cooking with gas.

00:32:09.000 All right, Rich, I want to go really quick.

00:32:11.000 Don Boldick, New Hampshire, where did this come from?

00:32:15.000 You know, honestly, it shouldn't have came from left field.

00:32:18.000 It's a late primary.

00:32:19.000 The incumbent is basically given an advantage, a structural advantage.

00:32:23.000 You know, Mitch McConnell and the NRSC, they're completely spastic with their strategy.

00:32:29.000 I'm in, I'm out, I'm in.

00:32:31.000 I'm out.

00:32:31.000 That is the best word I've heard to describe it.

00:32:36.000 It's crazy, Charlie.

00:32:37.000 It's New Hampshire.

00:32:38.000 Biden won it by seven.

00:32:40.000 We know we've been looking at what could be a national swing of 10 points or more.

00:32:44.000 So that puts New Hampshire well within that range.

00:32:47.000 The polling before had shown you have a very popular governor.

00:32:50.000 He's going to cruise to re-election.

00:32:52.000 He's going to help down ballot candidates and the Senate candidate.

00:32:56.000 They want to vote for Republicans in their state legislature.

00:32:59.000 New Hampshire won is now going to Caroline Levin.

00:33:03.000 That makes New Hampshire is the story.

00:33:06.000 New Hampshire, too.

00:33:07.000 You know, if it's close in New Hampshire, too, then Democrats are going to have a very bad night.

00:33:12.000 But Baldak always had a chance because when we look at things that matter, the fundamentals, they favored the Republican candidate inevitably.

00:33:20.000 But the question of Maggie Assan, her favorables, her approvals, and the question of whether or not you think she deserves re-election, that all was always negative for her.

00:33:30.000 She was always underwater.

00:33:32.000 And it got more underwater in this last Anselm College poll.

00:33:37.000 She even, her image deteriorated even further.

00:33:39.000 That's not the case for Jean Shaheen, who was the last one to run in a pro-Republican midterm. 1.00

00:33:45.000 She barely held on, barely, but she's popular. 0.73

00:33:49.000 And that's not the case with Maggie Assan, has never been.

00:33:53.000 She has always been underwater on approvals and favorables.

00:33:56.000 So to go in and out of that state the way they did was a tragedy.

00:34:00.000 But I think at this point, Baldak is a slight favorite.

00:34:03.000 I really believe that.

00:34:04.000 I do.

00:34:06.000 Yeah, I see it the same way.

00:34:08.000 Lee Zeldon.

00:34:08.000 Okay, really quick.

00:34:11.000 Closer than it ever should be.

00:34:15.000 And he's outpacing Republicans in the congressional level.

00:34:18.000 So it doesn't matter what competitive district we look at when it comes to governors, you know, the governor preference.

00:34:24.000 Zeldin is outpacing Hochul.

00:34:26.000 I know that there was one last poll that came out yesterday that showed Hochul expanding the lead a little bit.

00:34:30.000 I looked at it.

00:34:31.000 I think their turnout model is a little too rosy for Democrats.

00:34:35.000 The bottom line, even they have Zeldon doing very well in the five boroughs, and it really will come down to that.

00:34:40.000 We know he's going to win Suffolk and Nassau, right?

00:34:44.000 All those areas where Republicans used to win, but have been struggling, even if they edge him out a little bit.

00:34:49.000 And upstate, he'll probably win Clinton, you know, in areas where at the presidential level, Republicans barely lose.

00:34:57.000 But at the bottom, really in the bottom of the ninth, if it's close, what it will come down to is how well Lee Zeldon does in the five boroughs.

00:35:05.000 And if you look at, for instance, the Quinnipiac poll, even if they're off by the overall, not the sub-sample era, overall, the sampling era, and Zeldin does three points better, four points better, he's going to do it.

00:35:19.000 It's a race.

00:35:20.000 It is a race.

00:35:21.000 Rich, we got to go.

00:35:21.000 Got to have you back on soon.

00:35:23.000 Everybody, vote, vote, vote.

00:35:24.000 Get all your friends to go vote.

00:35:26.000 That is the old brother.

00:35:27.000 The only thing that could go wrong right now is if we don't show up.

00:35:30.000 Rich, thank you so much.

00:35:31.000 Thanks so much for listening, everybody.

00:35:32.000 Email me your thoughts.

00:35:33.000 As always, freedom at charliekirk.com.

00:35:35.000 Thank you so much for listening.

00:35:36.000 God bless.

00:35:39.000 For more on many of these stories and news you can trust, go to CharlieKirk.com.

The Charlie Kirk Show - November 03, 2022

Seriously, What's Up With Brazil? with Paulo Figueiredo Filho and Rich Baris

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