The Charlie Kirk Show - The Aftermath with Rich Baris, Benny Johnson, and Jack Posobiec

00:00:00.000 Charlie, things are not as bad.

00:00:02.000 No, I mean they're not.

00:00:03.000 Stop listening to the Navy.

00:00:04.000 First of all, there's some great wins and things that we got to worry about, things that we got to talk about.

00:00:10.000 But look, Arizona is going to shock the world.

00:00:12.000 Kerry Lake's going to be governor of Arizona.

00:00:14.000 Blake Masters is in a good spot.

00:00:15.000 We're going to talk about that.

00:00:16.000 JD Vance won last night.

00:00:17.000 Ron Johnson won.

00:00:18.000 Ted Budd won.

00:00:19.000 Beto's last.

00:00:19.000 Pennsylvania was a swing and a miss, no doubt.

00:00:21.000 Pennsylvania was a huge swing and a miss.

00:00:23.000 And we're going to go through that and we're going to talk about that.

00:00:27.000 And so, look, the buried lead is the Sun Belt did amazing.

00:00:31.000 Florida crushed.

00:00:32.000 I mean, Texas crushed.

00:00:34.000 Now, there were some congressional races where we should have done a lot better in Texas, a lot better.

00:00:37.000 We only got one of the three Latinas in.

00:00:39.000 Yep.

00:00:40.000 Nevada is running away with it.

00:00:42.000 My home state?

00:00:43.000 I told you.

00:00:44.000 I've been telling you.

00:00:45.000 And then Arizona, I mean, look, once it's all said and done, the story of the 2022 midterms is, oh, the Sun Belt, which is people lovers of freedom, refugees from these blue states, are trending in a very conservative direction.

00:00:45.000 That's right.

00:00:58.000 Midwest has got some work to do.

00:01:01.000 I mean, Republicans can still win in the industrial Midwest, Ron Johnson, JD Vance, but there were some swings and misses last night, no doubt.

00:01:09.000 And by the way, it looks like the Republicans will take the House by a five or 10 seat majority, somewhere between there.

00:01:14.000 We'll see if that's a good thing or not.

00:01:16.000 I think we're going to still take the Senate.

00:01:17.000 We're going to go through race by race.

00:01:18.000 We're going to talk about it.

00:01:19.000 We're going to go through in great detail about Arizona as well.

00:01:21.000 Email us your thoughts.

00:01:22.000 As always, freedom at charliekirk.com.

00:01:24.000 We went to bed last night at 3.30 in the morning, and here we are.

00:01:26.000 No, we were texting at 4.5.

00:01:29.000 You went to bed at 5.

00:01:30.000 Email us freedom at charliekirk.com.

00:01:33.000 And we're about to get started for a very important story.

00:01:36.000 We'll be right back.

00:01:36.000 Important show.

00:01:37.000 Hello, everybody.

00:01:38.000 Charlie Kirk here, radio stations across the country.

00:01:40.000 It is the day after.

00:01:41.000 Well, it's still the same day we stopped streaming, actually.

00:01:43.000 Andrew and Tyler are here.

00:01:44.000 How are we doing, guys?

00:01:46.000 Feeling good, actually, surprisingly.

00:01:49.000 The night was a roller coaster.

00:01:51.000 I think we can all agree on that.

00:01:53.000 We came in with probably way too high of expectations about how the night was going to go.

00:01:58.000 And Florida got us off with a jolt.

00:02:01.000 We were feeling really good.

00:02:02.000 Turns out Florida is a bit of an anomaly.

00:02:05.000 And then we kind of crashed.

00:02:07.000 And then as Nevada and Arizona started rolling in, we caught our momentum again.

00:02:13.000 And so, I mean, yeah, to your point, Florida looked great.

00:02:17.000 Texas looked great.

00:02:18.000 DeSantis won by 20 points.

00:02:19.000 I mean, yeah, I mean, that's insane.

00:02:21.000 I mean, this is, to put it in perspective, it was a blowout to win Florida by 100,000 votes, 50,000 votes.

00:02:27.000 And now DeSantis is winning by 20 points.

00:02:31.000 That state has completely transformed.

00:02:33.000 It's a whole different state than it was before.

00:02:35.000 Rubio, I think, won by 16, 17 points.

00:02:39.000 No, did you give you an idea?

00:02:40.000 DeSantis won by 1.5 million.

00:02:42.000 1.5 million.

00:02:44.000 That is a popular candidate.

00:02:45.000 And we're going to get into how that's going to affect the future debate within the Republican Party later in the show.

00:02:51.000 But what was surprising was that, you know, yeah, you've got a lot of people moving to Vegas.

00:02:55.000 You've got a lot of people moving to...

00:02:57.000 And by the way, Californians moving to Nevada just for taxes alone.

00:03:01.000 Big, big factor.

00:03:02.000 I think a lot of snowbirds moving to Arizona.

00:03:05.000 A lot of New Yorkers, Pennsylvanians moving to...

00:03:09.000 I mean, the question is, did Pennsylvania lose the votes it needed to get Oz over the finish line to Florida?

00:03:16.000 Did New York lose the voters it needed to get Zeldon over the finish line?

00:03:20.000 Did they move to Florida as well and other states?

00:03:23.000 People's modeling was way off in some of these states.

00:03:25.000 Definitely a lot of blue state drainage and leakage.

00:03:27.000 And look, I mean, here's the thing is that Florida, we are overperforming.

00:03:31.000 We do not know where we're at in Arizona.

00:03:32.000 I think when all is said and done, Kerry Lake is going to be the darling of the midterms that potentially got a U.S. Senator elected and saved an entire state from going into oblivion.

00:03:40.000 Kerry Lake will win, by the way.

00:03:41.000 We're getting a lot of questions.

00:03:42.000 Charlie, how is Kerry Lake?

00:03:43.000 Tyler, how rock solid is Kerry Lake?

00:03:45.000 I talked to Governor Lake this morning.

00:03:48.000 Governor elect.

00:03:49.000 Yeah.

00:03:50.000 Yeah, Governor elect, Governor Lake.

00:03:51.000 We're just calling her Governor Lake.

00:03:53.000 Talk to her.

00:03:54.000 She is in high spirits because she knows today is the day that she's going to take the lead.

00:03:59.000 And not lose it again.

00:04:01.000 And that's what everything is trending towards right now.

00:04:04.000 It's just a matter of time at this point.

00:04:07.000 The remaining ballots that are out there that are to be counted are all super heavy favorable, Carrie Lake.

00:04:15.000 And the reason for that is because these are all late drop-offs or day of drop-off ballots.

00:04:21.000 And then there's a number of ballots also that we talked about.

00:04:24.000 We've been talking about the Tray 3 or Box 3, Door 3.

00:04:29.000 By the way, we got tagged on Twitter.

00:04:32.000 I went back through and looked at your Twitter last night.

00:04:34.000 You got tagged on the box 3 tweet, which is hilarious.

00:04:37.000 And I totally stand by what you said, by the way.

00:04:40.000 The instructions were box three is not as good as getting your ballot counted that day.

00:04:46.000 That's right.

00:04:47.000 But a lot of people were forced to do, and those haven't been counted.

00:04:49.000 So, Tyler, there could be anywhere between half a million to 900,000 ballots to be counted in the market.

00:04:54.000 To put that into the idea of percentages, like 20% or more of the ballots remaining in Arizona.

00:05:00.000 So if you see people tweet out, there was a he him that posted today, and I called him out today for posting that there was like 97% of all the ballots have been counted in Arizona.

00:05:10.000 That's precincts.

00:05:11.000 Precincts.

00:05:12.000 Yeah, but we don't even count by precincts.

00:05:14.000 That's that's by precinct.

00:05:17.000 We don't even have like entire counties' results in from last night.

00:05:20.000 Like, I mean, guys, this is we are a long way away here.

00:05:24.000 At minimum, we have 20% of our ballots still not counted.

00:05:27.000 Maximally, it could be upwards of 30%.

00:05:29.000 Let me tell you what my gut number is.

00:05:30.000 Let me.

00:05:31.000 The raw numbers is like what you said.

00:05:33.000 It could be anywhere from a half million votes, I think, maybe a little bit less than that to 900,000 votes.

00:05:39.000 Can I make a note on that?

00:05:40.000 It's probably closer to like 700,000.

00:05:42.000 Let's look at.

00:05:43.000 So, okay, just so we're clear: Katie Hobbs and Carrie Lake right now, there's a delta of about 12,000 votes, okay?

00:05:49.000 Effectively.

00:05:49.000 So tied.

00:05:50.000 Yeah, so Kerry Lake is down 12,000 votes.

00:05:52.000 That's with only 1.

00:05:56.000 Let's see, 1.8 million ballots counted.

00:06:00.000 In 2018, another midterm cycle, there was 2.32 million votes, right?

00:06:07.000 That's at least 526,000 votes outstanding.

00:06:12.000 We're going to have higher turnout than 18.

00:06:13.000 I was going to say, and the expectation is by all the anecdotal evidence, all of the modeling.

00:06:19.000 We only brought an extra 100,000.

00:06:21.000 We have breaking news here.

00:06:22.000 Yes.

00:06:23.000 So breaking news is we have another 20,000 or so door three, planet three, box three.

00:06:34.000 Day of ballots still yet to be counted in Maricopa County.

00:06:38.000 Yeah, she won close to 70% of those.

00:06:41.000 So that alone.

00:06:43.000 We'll put her in the lead.

00:06:44.000 When does that drop?

00:06:45.000 Is that now?

00:06:46.000 By tomorrow, they said.

00:06:47.000 Oh, my God.

00:06:48.000 Because we've tabulated it.

00:06:49.000 I don't know what's going to happen.

00:06:49.000 So how do you know the.

00:06:50.000 Oh, there's 20,000 left in door three.

00:06:53.000 Yes, it's slightly less than that.

00:06:55.000 We've been wondering how many.

00:06:57.000 So that alone should put Carrie in the lead.

00:06:59.000 And then on top of that, we just got their estimating 400,000 ballots out of Maricopa County that were dropped.

00:07:06.000 Whoa.

00:07:08.000 What?

00:07:09.000 That's big.

00:07:10.000 Give me one second here.

00:07:11.000 What?

00:07:11.000 Hey, do you hear that?

00:07:12.000 Chuck U. Schumer?

00:07:13.000 Hold on.

00:07:14.000 Can someone call Chuck Schumer's office?

00:07:17.000 400,000 drops?

00:07:19.000 I'm waiting for the verification.

00:07:21.000 Tyler, that lines up with my anecdotal that I was saying yesterday.

00:07:24.000 That's really high.

00:07:24.000 It seems really high.

00:07:26.000 I don't want to get too excited here.

00:07:28.000 That's almost like how good is it?

00:07:29.000 I don't want to get too much.

00:07:30.000 I don't want to get too excited here.

00:07:31.000 Democrats started.

00:07:34.000 So one of our listeners said, How can you know how many ballots there are?

00:07:37.000 But not just count them.

00:07:41.000 So, what this might be, and Charlie, and this is what I think, there is a number of, I think there was, remember I told you guys last night on the stream, I think there was about 100 to 150,000 ballots that were dropped off like the day before.

00:07:53.000 So we're talking Monday drops that weren't counted yet.

00:07:57.000 So those ballots, I think, are included as part of that 400K that have yet to be.

00:08:01.000 So if that's the case, by the way, it was closer to 250,000, which is what we needed minimally, I think, to be successful on day of.

00:08:09.000 That makes perfect sense.

00:08:10.000 And that's part of the reason why we had that 400K.

00:08:12.000 That would be late early.

00:08:13.000 But that's not statewide, right?

00:08:14.000 That's not statewide.

00:08:15.000 That's just Maricopa.

00:08:17.000 So it looks like it sounds like they had 200.

00:08:19.000 Okay, so I'm just confirming here so we don't want to get misinformation out there.

00:08:24.000 So Maricopa County is saying 200,000 drop-offs yesterday plus more from Monday.

00:08:32.000 Okay.

00:08:32.000 Yeah.

00:08:33.000 So, all right.

00:08:35.000 Just so we're clear, the 20,000 box three, if that breaks 70, 30, that gives Carrie another 8,000 votes.

00:08:43.000 That's over.

00:08:43.000 Carrie's governor.

00:08:44.000 That gives her another 8.

00:08:45.000 So she's still technically...

00:08:47.000 I mean, it doesn't give her 8.

00:08:49.000 It actually advances or it gets her closer by 8.

00:08:51.000 How many on Monday, Tyler, do we think?

00:08:54.000 I'm just trying to get straight answers.

00:08:56.000 I'm going to the top.

00:08:57.000 I'm going to the top here, and we're going to get the straight answer here.

00:09:00.000 So anyways, box three will get Carrie within about, it will get her within about 4,000 votes.

00:09:08.000 So she's not going to be ahead from box three.

00:09:10.000 I just do the math, but she'll be within 4,000.

00:09:12.000 Yeah, but that doesn't count Mojave and Nava Pie.

00:09:14.000 And by the way, let me just give you another piece of data here.

00:09:17.000 Tyler, do you know that right now, currently, they say Blake Masters is down 28 points in Pima?

00:09:22.000 Yeah, not going to happen.

00:09:23.000 Pima hasn't counted their election day votes yet.

00:09:26.000 Yeah.

00:09:27.000 Total Maricopa County right now is.

00:09:34.000 I'm sorry.

00:09:34.000 Hang on here.

00:09:35.000 Just do the numbers.

00:09:36.000 Do a tabulation for the day.

00:09:38.000 We estimate more than 400.

00:09:39.000 Okay, Maricopa County just put this out.

00:09:40.000 This was up against the break.

00:09:43.000 We estimate more than 400K ballots left to count in Maricopa County.

00:09:46.000 275,000 early ballots on Election Day.

00:09:50.000 You know, that number was 170 in 2020.

00:09:53.000 So they took forever to count that 2020.

00:09:56.000 So expect to buckle up.

00:09:57.000 This is why they're saying Thanksgiving now is because they took so freaking long last year.

00:10:00.000 Okay, but Charlie, we've got to make sense of this.

00:10:01.000 We have 30 seconds.

00:10:02.000 We'll come back.

00:10:03.000 We'll come back.

00:10:04.000 This is too much to go.

00:10:05.000 We'll figure it out in the break.

00:10:06.000 Okay, all right.

00:10:06.000 Email us freedom at charliekirk.com.

00:10:08.000 The bottom line is there's so many votes up and carries in.

00:10:12.000 There's no way Carrie is in.

00:10:13.000 Blake has a path with those numbers.

00:10:14.000 Blake has a path for sure.

00:10:14.000 He has a path.

00:10:16.000 Subscribe to the Charlie Kirk Show podcast, please, by taking out your podcast app and typing in Charlie Kirk Show.

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00:10:31.000 I think like 20 out of the last 24 hours, Andrew, it's been ridiculous.

00:10:35.000 And sometimes you need some relief factor, and also you might need some relief factor sleep to allow you guys to help.

00:10:40.000 Yeah.

00:10:40.000 I took some.

00:10:41.000 Well, I mean, I feel great.

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00:10:43.000 Just a little cough, maybe?

00:10:45.000 Just a little bit.

00:10:45.000 Okay.

00:10:46.000 But that has nothing to do with relief factor.

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00:11:04.000 Email us freedom at charliekirk.com and subscribe to the Charlie Kirk Show podcast.

00:11:08.000 A lot of different data coming out in Arizona right now, and we're trying to make sense of all of it as the media is getting very nervous.

00:11:16.000 You know, the New York Times pulled their Mark Kelly likely to win thing because they're very worried that something might be happening.

00:11:24.000 Tyler, 20 seconds.

00:11:25.000 Yeah, I mean, we're looking at all together here, I mean, hundreds.

00:11:25.000 What's up?

00:11:29.000 It's over 400,000 ballots left to count in Maricopa County, and most of them seem to be good because a vast majority of those were from Election Day.

00:11:37.000 Yeah, so that means that there's at least 650,000 votes statewide left to count because Pima hasn't done their Election Day votes.

00:11:42.000 If we're 400,000 in Maricopa County, we are at least 700.

00:11:47.000 That's very good.

00:11:48.000 I mean, that's phenomenal news for Carrie.

00:11:49.000 Baseline.

00:11:50.000 And that's very good news for Blake.

00:11:52.000 Blake's margin.

00:11:53.000 Blake can now, he has some room.

00:11:56.000 The sunbelt rises here in Arizona.

00:11:58.000 The red wave.

00:11:59.000 I think it might have happened here in the desert.

00:12:01.000 We'll be right back.

00:12:01.000 We'll see.

00:12:02.000 Welcome back.

00:12:03.000 No, we are not in Nicaragua, but it sure feels that way.

00:12:06.000 There's about 428,000 ballots in Maricopa left outstanding.

00:12:10.000 Is that right?

00:12:10.000 That was a very fitting song.

00:12:12.000 You know what song that was?

00:12:13.000 No.

00:12:13.000 That's Foo Fighters Everlong.

00:12:15.000 And that's what we're going to be in for.

00:12:17.000 Everlong.

00:12:17.000 If every teenager that was mine and Andrew's age learned the song Everlong, we're going to be sitting here ever long, waiting for Steven Richard to count the ballots.

00:12:27.000 This is the next two.

00:12:28.000 This is great news.

00:12:28.000 So 428,000 ballots left in Maricopa County.

00:12:31.000 Yes.

00:12:32.000 We're breaking it down.

00:12:33.000 We're breaking down math.

00:12:34.000 Let's bring our audience up to speed because we were doing this during the break.

00:12:37.000 Tyler, you're saying there's 275,000 election day early drop-offs.

00:12:42.000 I'm going to make my prediction right now.

00:12:44.000 Now there's 86,000 from pre-election drop-offs.

00:12:48.000 So pre-election day, that would be Monday, right?

00:12:51.000 Sunday, Saturday.

00:12:53.000 There's 50,000 emergency, which we're getting clarity on what that even means.

00:12:57.000 That's a creepy.

00:12:58.000 Those are emergency Democrat votes.

00:13:00.000 I think that's like flying from China votes.

00:13:06.000 I'm kidding.

00:13:06.000 You're going to clip that up.

00:13:07.000 17,000 box three.

00:13:09.000 That's going to break 65.

00:13:11.000 70%.

00:13:12.000 Let's say 65, though.

00:13:13.000 No, those are going to be 70%.

00:13:15.000 Average down, guys.

00:13:16.000 I'm going to do something.

00:13:17.000 I want to get scientific on this.

00:13:18.000 I want to go each group here.

00:13:22.000 These New York Times models are hilarious.

00:13:24.000 They're like, there's a lot more Democrat votes in Maricopa left.

00:13:27.000 You guys, you know nothing about Arizona.

00:13:29.000 You know nothing.

00:13:30.000 These freaks on Twitter are like, the race is about to be called in Arizona.

00:13:34.000 You have no idea what you are talking about.

00:13:37.000 All right, I'm doing worst case scenario.

00:13:38.000 Zero.

00:13:39.000 And this is why.

00:13:40.000 Arizona doesn't work like the rest of the country.

00:13:42.000 Well, they're doing their math.

00:13:43.000 In Arizona, when you show up to vote, of which I did yesterday, there were dozens of people that were coming out of their cars with green envelopes.

00:13:50.000 One second, Tyler.

00:13:51.000 Dozens of people dropping off their ballots.

00:13:54.000 And we said a one-to-one, Tyler.

00:13:55.000 This is more than one to one.

00:13:57.000 There's more people that dropped off in Maricopa than voted in person on election day yesterday, which is a great sign.

00:14:02.000 And that does not count our greatest counties of Mojave.

00:14:06.000 Doesn't count La Paz, doesn't count Yuma, doesn't count the same-day election in Pima, doesn't count Pinal, doesn't count Gila, doesn't count Graham, doesn't count Navajo, doesn't count Grenley, doesn't count Cochise.

00:14:16.000 Of all those other amazing counties that could run up the score there, Blake has a path, guys.

00:14:20.000 Blake has a path in a way that is very serious and significant.

00:14:24.000 I'm telling you, if you're the Mark Kelly camp, you're not confident in any way whatsoever.

00:14:29.000 So you have emergency breaking away.

00:14:32.000 You have emergency ballots.

00:14:33.000 It's just Maricopa, by the way.

00:14:34.000 For Katie Hobbs.

00:14:36.000 Yeah.

00:14:37.000 By what?

00:14:38.000 55, 45, which was what we heard.

00:14:40.000 She was breaking before.

00:14:41.000 Okay, so this is the number that I've pulled down for Maricopa County that I think is a number.

00:14:47.000 So I wish I could throw this up on the screen so you understand my math.

00:14:51.000 So these are the estimated groups.

00:14:54.000 The tranches is this is like this is Charlie's favorite word from 2020 was tranches of ballots.

00:15:00.000 The first group is 275,000 early day election drop-off ballots.

00:15:07.000 Election day, I'm sorry, election day early ballot drop-off.

00:15:10.000 So they got a ballot in the mail and they dropped it off on election day at a polling place.

00:15:13.000 I believe that minimally we will win those at 65%.

00:15:17.000 That's what we were at.

00:15:18.000 Maybe more.

00:15:19.000 It could be more, but let's be, I think that's a fair number.

00:15:23.000 That's 178,750 ballots for Kerry and 96,254 for Katie.

00:15:33.000 The next group, 86,000 ballots were early drop-offs.

00:15:38.000 Those were breaking for Kerry in the last day.

00:15:41.000 I think that we're going to see a slight break.

00:15:44.000 We have those at 55%, so it's 47,300 for Kerry, 38,700 for the bad guys.

00:15:52.000 We have 50,000 emergency ballots.

00:15:54.000 I've gained clarity on what those are.

00:15:58.000 I have those breaking at 45% for Kerry.

00:16:03.000 It's 22.5% and 27.5% for the bad guys.

00:16:07.000 And then finally, the box threes, which we have at 70%, 11,951.

00:16:11.000 Ultimately, the number comes down to basically $264.50 for Kerry and Blake and $167.

00:16:17.000 So we're pretty close.

00:16:18.000 We're going to be pretty close to adding another $100,000.

00:16:21.000 It's 91.

00:16:22.000 I have it at 91.2,000.

00:16:24.000 100,000 votes for Blake.

00:16:27.000 Yeah, I have it for Kerry and Blake, basically.

00:16:30.000 Same breakdown.

00:16:31.000 Kerry's probably going to overperform this by.

00:16:33.000 Yeah, but look, Blake is down 90,000 votes right now.

00:16:35.000 Yeah, if you extrapolate this House in Maricopa alone.

00:16:39.000 And they haven't counted Pima.

00:16:41.000 So just, yeah, Pima's not going to go our way the same way.

00:16:43.000 So other places in the state same day for Peter.

00:16:47.000 I know.

00:16:47.000 I'm just being thoughtful here.

00:16:49.000 What I explained last night was that the other parts of the state make up for Pima.

00:16:53.000 So even if the worst case scenario happens in Pima and they just magically appear with these emergency ballots, whatever that means, we're going to be in good shape.

00:17:03.000 I mean, 91,000 ballots.

00:17:05.000 By the way, that means we control the Senate.

00:17:07.000 That's a net gain of 91,000 ballots.

00:17:09.000 That's the U.S. Senate.

00:17:10.000 That's the Republican U.S. Senate going through Arizona.

00:17:13.000 So that's my prediction, Charlie.

00:17:14.000 In Maricopa alone.

00:17:15.000 90,000 votes I think that we're going to get out of these remaining votes.

00:17:20.000 In Maricopa.

00:17:21.000 That's a net for Kerry or for the team.

00:17:24.000 Yeah, Kerry and Blake.

00:17:25.000 Kerry Sledden and Kerry and Blake.

00:17:26.000 By the way, these were all below what Kerry's breaking at already.

00:17:28.000 So these are conservative.

00:17:29.000 These are conservative numbers.

00:17:31.000 So staying conservative would be...

00:17:33.000 That means that Kerry would take an 80,000 vote lead right now with the current trajectory.

00:17:38.000 Email us freedom at charliekirk.com.

00:17:40.000 We are crunching the numbers that even the media is ignoring.

00:17:42.000 Looks like the Senate might go to the Republicans.

00:17:44.000 Okay, let's talk about some of the House races, and then we're going to get deeper into what's happening in Arizona.

00:17:48.000 And Arizona matters a lot.

00:17:49.000 Matters for the Senate, matters for Kerry Lake, matters for House races, matters for a lot of different things, everybody.

00:17:55.000 And look, people are looking for answers right now.

00:17:57.000 People are trying to find some clarity.

00:17:59.000 People are saying, Charlie, I thought there would be this red wave.

00:18:01.000 Look, there was a hidden Dobbs voter.

00:18:02.000 Gen Z showed up in massive numbers and was micro-targeted.

00:18:05.000 Mail-in ballot killed balloting killed us.

00:18:08.000 When we did not have good candidates, candidate quality mattered a lot.

00:18:11.000 When we did not have good candidates, we just got slaughtered.

00:18:13.000 That's that simple.

00:18:14.000 When we did not have good candidates, it's just we were not able to compete in a lot of these districts.

00:18:19.000 And they spent a ton of money.

00:18:20.000 We got out-competed.

00:18:22.000 And look, you might say, well, what about Pennsylvania, Jack?

00:18:24.000 What happened in Pennsylvania?

00:18:26.000 Look, I look at the Pennsylvania vote, Charlie, and I appreciate you having me on today.

00:18:30.000 That it really was a state where these targeted mail-in ballot harvesting operations, the amount of money they put into that, the fact that pollsters, I think, on both sides of the aisle totally missed this Gen Z bump, millennial bump that was coming out, that they were going to vote at a clip that they've never voted in before.

00:18:49.000 Now, you and I talked about this the day before the election, and I think a lot of people were not putting that into their projections.

00:18:55.000 So it turns out, guess what, boys and girls?

00:18:58.000 Gen Z millennials, they will vote.

00:19:01.000 They prefer to vote by mail.

00:19:03.000 They prefer to vote by Dropbox, whatever it is, and they're going to turn it back.

00:19:07.000 And these are TikTok-driven operations.

00:19:10.000 It's something that totally flew under the radar.

00:19:12.000 It's sort of one of those things where it wasn't real until it was real.

00:19:15.000 Guess what?

00:19:16.000 Now it's real.

00:19:16.000 Millennials actually voted pretty well, though.

00:19:18.000 It's Gen Z. Millennials were almost, we won a lot of states with millennials, 28 and older.

00:19:23.000 I was just saying in general, this is a bubble that I would say.

00:19:27.000 I mean, I'm sure there's Zoomers that voted well as well, but it's a bubble that really targets those specific demographics.

00:19:33.000 Can I have that breakdown?

00:19:35.000 And here's the thing, by the way, right?

00:19:36.000 I talked about this before.

00:19:38.000 Pennsylvania in the past does not have a history of voting early or voting by mail.

00:19:43.000 So that's your boomers, that's your older Gen Xers, that's your older millennials.

00:19:49.000 They're not voting early.

00:19:50.000 They're not doing the mail-in votes.

00:19:52.000 So, this operation, okay, it's here to stay, boys and girls.

00:19:56.000 It's here to stay now.

00:19:57.000 And either the GOP can put on their big boy pants and decide to actually start putting money behind this or do what Florida and Georgia did and actually pass election integrity laws.

00:20:06.000 But you can't do that unless you get into power.

00:20:08.000 So, guess what?

00:20:09.000 You got to spend money to make money.

00:20:11.000 Can I say something real quickly?

00:20:13.000 I have Brazilians messaging me.

00:20:15.000 By the way, they're about to go into civil war in Brazil.

00:20:19.000 I have Brazilians messaging me going, Wait, you guys don't know the results of your election yet?

00:20:24.000 That's right.

00:20:24.000 Yeah, try for a couple days.

00:20:26.000 I'll say one thing.

00:20:27.000 Brazilians just had their elections, and they think our elections are worse than that.

00:20:30.000 There's one thing I know right here.

00:20:32.000 Crazy.

00:20:33.000 It's that I'm here today in Carrizona, baby.

00:20:37.000 Carriezona.

00:20:38.000 Carriezona.

00:20:40.000 She's going to be announced governor by tonight.

00:20:42.000 Andrew, what are the numbers?

00:20:44.000 So I've got this.

00:20:45.000 I've got the breakdown that we were just talking about last segment.

00:20:49.000 I wanted to put it together visually for people.

00:20:51.000 I think it's important to see it.

00:20:52.000 So I'm going to throw this up.

00:20:54.000 Here, I'll put this in our chat here, actually.

00:20:59.000 So this is, I think it's hard for everybody to kind of wrap their head around the numbers.

00:21:07.000 Studio, can you guys throw that up?

00:21:09.000 But for our radio audience, I mean, the ballots remaining are in four tranches, right?

00:21:16.000 There's Election Day early drops.

00:21:18.000 And this is just Maricopa.

00:21:20.000 Late earlies, that means they dropped them off probably on Sunday or Monday.

00:21:25.000 So here's the graphic right there.

00:21:27.000 It's on the screen.

00:21:28.000 Late earlies, Sunday or Monday drop-offs.

00:21:31.000 Would that include Saturdays too?

00:21:34.000 Tyler?

00:21:34.000 Late earlies?

00:21:35.000 Saturday, Sunday, Monday?

00:21:37.000 Yeah, it's what they believe were drop-offs that were mainly Sunday and Monday.

00:21:42.000 So it's that final 72-hour push.

00:21:42.000 Okay.

00:21:44.000 Yeah, did we get?

00:21:45.000 It was the final that they couldn't scan before just like getting prepared for election day.

00:21:50.000 It's normal.

00:21:51.000 What about emergency?

00:21:52.000 Did we get clarity on what that is?

00:21:53.000 Let me see if Gina told me.

00:21:55.000 This is Foboda, the queen.

00:21:59.000 What does emergency mean?

00:22:01.000 Emergency to me sounds like that could be provisional ballots.

00:22:03.000 Yeah, probably.

00:22:05.000 Box three is the, they're saying there's 17,000.

00:22:08.000 Okay, so you take all of those ballots together.

00:22:11.000 That's 428,000 total votes still outstanding in Maricopa.

00:22:17.000 All right.

00:22:17.000 This is conservative.

00:22:19.000 Now, percentage for GDP, GOP, we are taking conservative.

00:22:23.000 That election day early drops would break 65% for GOP.

00:22:26.000 Late earlies, since those are still early voters, technically, they're just later in the cycle, are going to be still more pro-carry.

00:22:36.000 This is what you've seen in the trends, right?

00:22:38.000 Yeah.

00:22:38.000 55%.

00:22:39.000 So we took it down from 65.

00:22:42.000 Oh, they got it up on screen.

00:22:44.000 Yeah.

00:22:46.000 So they've got 86, late early, 55% breaking for us.

00:22:52.000 Emergency, you're saying that Katie Hobbs is actually going to win those, the emergency ballots, right?

00:23:00.000 So we're saying percentage for GOP is 45% going our way.

00:23:04.000 Box three, which is the much talked about box three, you think we're going to win that 65%.

00:23:09.000 All right.

00:23:09.000 So that means Lake and Blake are going to get around 178,000 out of the election day early drops.

00:23:15.000 They're going to get 47,000 out of the late earlies.

00:23:18.000 They're going to get 22,000 out of the emergency and about 11,000 out of the box three for a total of $259,600 to Hobbs and Kelly, $168,400.

00:23:29.000 That's a total net gain for Lake and Blake, give or take, of about $90,000.

00:23:34.000 That basically puts Blake tied at that point.

00:23:36.000 Yeah, just for Maricopa County.

00:23:37.000 Yeah, because Blake is 90,000.

00:23:41.000 So Maricopa.

00:23:43.000 Exactly where we're left.

00:23:47.000 We're losing by less, though.

00:23:48.000 The remainder of the state will be favorable, more favorable.

00:23:52.000 Most outstanding across the state is going to be those same election day early drops or day ups, right?

00:23:57.000 No, honestly, I got to see something people say, Charlie, you're wasting your time.

00:23:59.000 This system is a joke.

00:24:00.000 Honestly, you're wrong.

00:24:01.000 Kerry likes to be governor, and when she's governor, I hope you guys eat your own words.

00:24:06.000 We're going to make it happen.

00:24:07.000 Stop with your cynicism.

00:24:08.000 Boom.

00:24:08.000 I'm getting some of these emails.

00:24:09.000 Charlie, stop wasting your time.

00:24:11.000 Then go leave the freaking country, okay?

00:24:11.000 All right, fine.

00:24:13.000 We haven't slept in five days.

00:24:14.000 You're telling me to like, it's no, Kerry likes to be governor of Arizona, okay?

00:24:18.000 Let me tell you why they're wrong, Charlie.

00:24:20.000 Because at the end of the day, it irritates me so much when people say that.

00:24:23.000 At the end of the day, look, I mean, there's a lot of hopelessness that's out there, and I understand it because of what has happened in some of our communities across the country.

00:24:30.000 This is ridiculous.

00:24:31.000 But let me tell you, and the system that we have here sucks.

00:24:35.000 But this is a war that's fought with many little battles that we have to take back our elections.

00:24:35.000 Yeah.

00:24:40.000 We have to take back each election cycle and we have to proceed.

00:24:44.000 And this means having great secretaries of state.

00:24:45.000 This means having great elections departments at your county level.

00:24:48.000 This is the reason why I'm telling you, and I'm on this war path.

00:24:52.000 The future of the country is at stake with counties the size of Maricopa County, the size of Clark County, the sizes of King County, the sizes of Los Angeles and San Diego and San Bernardino.

00:25:06.000 We are losing our country in the West, and by extension, the rest of the country because we've allowed massive unconstitutional growth of gigantic counties.

00:25:19.000 And this is not Jeffersonian by model.

00:25:22.000 Jeffersonian looks a lot more like it looks back east.

00:25:24.000 Look at some of those Midwestern counties out there where I think it's like 8,000 person.

00:25:29.000 Nebraska's like that.

00:25:29.000 Iowa's like that.

00:25:30.000 Georgia's like that.

00:25:31.000 Georgia's like that.

00:25:32.000 Yeah.

00:25:33.000 It's completely insane to me.

00:25:34.000 But when I look at the, and Charlie, to your point as well, for the people saying, oh, you're wasting your time, you're wasting your time.

00:25:40.000 I see data.

00:25:41.000 I see numbers.

00:25:42.000 I see analysis.

00:25:43.000 I see ration.

00:25:44.000 I see the actual numbers.

00:25:49.000 We drove people out.

00:25:50.000 I mean, Charlie, you had a metaphorical whip in your hand on Tuesday and were just lashing, just whipping, whipping, whipping people to get out.

00:26:00.000 And so this stream, okay, last night and today, nobody's up here doing doom and gloom.

00:26:06.000 The eulogy music is, we can disavow that.

00:26:09.000 But this is data.

00:26:11.000 This is number crunching.

00:26:13.000 This is real life.

00:26:14.000 I got clarity on those emergency votes.

00:26:16.000 What is it?

00:26:16.000 The emergency ballots were the extended operational hours of early polling place voting.

00:26:23.000 So those may be very ugly votes.

00:26:26.000 Yeah, very not good votes.

00:26:26.000 Very ugly?

00:26:28.000 Wait, explain that in layman's.

00:26:30.000 Just in-person early voting that happened, occurred, that occurred before the election.

00:26:34.000 These are not, these are a lot of places that are in very blue areas for the most part.

00:26:38.000 Okay.

00:26:39.000 These are not, these are like government employees.

00:26:42.000 So I got us losing those by 10 points on this assumption.

00:26:44.000 It's probably, it's probably.

00:26:47.000 Okay, wait, wait.

00:26:48.000 Gina, Gina.

00:26:49.000 She's saying she's saying that those later early voters were trending red, but I think.

00:26:56.000 Our assumption still probably is within the within the framework.

00:27:00.000 Yeah, we might lose a few more votes out of that group, but luckily it's only 50,000.

00:27:04.000 I was going to say we're losing right now 22,500 to 27,500 in that box.

00:27:13.000 So let's just say we lose 10.

00:27:15.000 All right.

00:27:16.000 So that would be tell voters that it was emergency.

00:27:18.000 They just thought they were early voting.

00:27:20.000 So what does that mean, Gina?

00:27:22.000 It's going to be litigated in the courts is what it means.

00:27:24.000 Basically, so I mean, we're looking at the trajectory right here.

00:27:27.000 Blake Masters will come within like with all this Maricopa, he'll be quote-unquote tied.

00:27:33.000 And this is going to be a knife fight, metaphorical knife fight between Mark Kelly and Blake.

00:27:36.000 This is going to be what we thought Pennsylvania was going to be.

00:27:39.000 But these 50,000 votes might become extraordinarily important for Blake.

00:27:43.000 But also, I mean, Pinal still has a lot to report.

00:27:46.000 Blake is going to win from this point forward in Pima.

00:27:48.000 He is.

00:27:49.000 There's no way he's losing by 28 points.

00:27:51.000 So the point is that they have not reported their election day numbers yet in Pima.

00:27:56.000 And Graham is still going to come in.

00:27:57.000 Yuma hasn't reported all the way.

00:27:59.000 What does Coconino look like?

00:28:00.000 Coconino's, the margins are insane.

00:28:02.000 He's going to close that gap.

00:28:03.000 That's a really good sign.

00:28:04.000 All right.

00:28:04.000 So just down 29 points.

00:28:06.000 They're holding off all these Democrats.

00:28:08.000 Yeah, of course they are so they can see what they need.

00:28:10.000 Yeah, and Coconino and Pima.

00:28:12.000 We have poll watchers, got to keep eyes on them.

00:28:14.000 Look, Blake can win this thing by 15 to 30,000 votes.

00:28:17.000 Well, just see Apache.

00:28:18.000 Look at Apache real quick.

00:28:19.000 Apache is close.

00:28:22.000 No, it's blowout.

00:28:23.000 So why does it look like.

00:28:26.000 So, look, there's a lot here.

00:28:30.000 Okay, let's go to some other races because we are a national program while we guys tabulate more in Arizona.

00:28:34.000 Nevada, Andrew, what happened in Nevada last night?

00:28:37.000 Nevada was so exciting right at the end there.

00:28:41.000 You know, what we saw really, we were getting reports that Washoe County, so Washoe County is going to be Reno, right down the hill from Tahoe, from the northern part of Tahoe.

00:28:53.000 Get down into Reno.

00:28:55.000 Big population center.

00:28:56.000 It's the largest population center in northern Nevada.

00:28:58.000 We've got 64% of votes that have been counted.

00:29:03.000 What we heard was that Washoe went out to an early lead for the Dems and then was breaking heavy, like 70, 30, 75, 25 for Republicans on day of.

00:29:15.000 Adam Laxalt took the lead in Washoe County.

00:29:18.000 So again, it's basically Washoe and Clark.

00:29:20.000 Obviously, Clark being Vegas, Vegas had a bigger share of the vote.

00:29:24.000 But with Washoe County now breaking, which it broke for Biden in 2020, now that it's breaking for Laxalt, that's a huge, huge, huge gain.

00:29:33.000 We still have votes outstanding in the heavily, heavily conservative Douglas County and the heavily, heavily conservative Lyon County.

00:29:40.000 Lots of population there.

00:29:41.000 What's going on in Clark?

00:29:43.000 Clark is still outstanding, but less.

00:29:47.000 This has it at 78%.

00:29:50.000 I was seeing it at 84% last night.

00:29:52.000 So the question is: how many votes are outstanding in Clark?

00:29:55.000 But here's the deal: Clark, the votes that should be left in Clark should be trending as so.

00:30:00.000 Clark was actually closing as votes were coming in last night.

00:30:03.000 Really?

00:30:04.000 Yeah, it was closing.

00:30:04.000 It was getting tighter.

00:30:05.000 All right, I got to tell our audience about Legacy Box.

00:30:07.000 I think I got to steal this for a second.

00:30:09.000 Let me guys tell you guys about Legacy Box.

00:30:11.000 It's a phenomenal product.

00:30:12.000 You guys can get all of your family memories saved and stored for future generations and get them to be uploaded on the cloud.

00:30:21.000 Look, if you're like me, you want to make sure that your old media, like Superfilm, Super 8, VHS, tapes, and slides, do not collect dust.

00:30:29.000 Jack, you got to check out Legacy Boxes.

00:30:30.000 LegacyBox.com/slash Kirk.

00:30:33.000 What holiday memories or traditions have you captured or do you want to capture and make sure they live forever?

00:30:38.000 So go to legacybox.com/slash Kirk.

00:30:40.000 That is legacybox.com/slash Kirk.

00:30:43.000 Check it out right now.

00:30:44.000 They do a great job.

00:30:45.000 Make sure your family's memories live forever.

00:30:48.000 That is the conservative thing to do.

00:30:51.000 Make sure your family's memories live forever.

00:30:53.000 Go to legacybox.com/slash Kirk.

00:30:55.000 That is legacybox.com/slash Kirk.

00:30:59.000 They do such a great job.

00:31:00.000 I'm so proud of them.

00:31:01.000 And I think you guys will be too.

00:31:02.000 Legacybox.com/slash Kirk.

00:31:04.000 Okay, Carrie Lake's probably going to win the governorship by 120 to 140,000 votes.

00:31:08.000 That's my head math.

00:31:09.000 And then I think Blake Masters could either lose by 10,000 to 20,000 votes or win by 10,000 to 20,000 votes.

00:31:14.000 That's the window, Tyler.

00:31:15.000 Am I right?

00:31:17.000 Thank you.

00:31:17.000 You're right.

00:31:18.000 That's all right up there.

00:31:19.000 Email us, freedom at charliekirk.com.

00:31:21.000 I was just doing it in my head while I was doing the legacy box announcement.

00:31:24.000 Subscribe to the Charlie Kirk Show podcast.

00:31:26.000 A lot happening.

00:31:27.000 We'll be right back.

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00:32:37.000 Where if the, for example, if Cuomo was up 10 points or up 20 points, it wouldn't be as much.

00:32:43.000 We could, if the night goes well, if people are showing up in big numbers and coming out of the rivers and coming out of the valleys, as Donald Trump would say, it is possible that New York has more Republicans in the delegation than Democrats.

00:32:56.000 But the only way this happens, everybody, is an unprecedented election day turnout where you need to do this.

00:33:03.000 You need to show up at 6 a.m. And then throughout the day, you need to find 10 other people that haven't yet voted that day and just nag them and say, you got to go vote.

00:33:11.000 You got to go vote.

00:33:12.000 And it's a really interesting thing where the Democrats have this incredibly sophisticated modeling and they have early voting and all this stuff where we as Republicans basically like get everyone excited and say just go do the thing.

00:33:34.000 The regime is falling.

00:33:36.000 The citizen is rising.

00:33:38.000 And Charlie Kirk is leading the way.

00:33:40.000 Welcome back, everybody.

00:33:41.000 Tyler, can you walk us through what you just said?

00:33:44.000 Which part?

00:33:45.000 How about the part about what is the window for Blake?

00:33:48.000 Lose by 20,000, win by 20,000.

00:33:50.000 That's the conservative window, right?

00:33:52.000 The conservative window right now is that the votes seem to be there for Blake to win.

00:33:56.000 I mean, Blake needs to have upwards of, I think, probably safely 550,000 remaining ballots in the state.

00:34:03.000 I would be shocked if there's less than that.

00:34:06.000 There's probably closer to between 600,000, 650,000 conservatively in the state remaining.

00:34:11.000 It could be upwards of 700,000.

00:34:15.000 So right now, Maricopa County alone, there's 400,000 ballots.

00:34:17.000 That means that the rest of the state, there's probably at least 650.

00:34:20.000 It could be closer to 700.

00:34:23.000 700,000.

00:34:24.000 I mean, based on a lot of really solid conservative assumptions, Blake pulls this out.

00:34:31.000 That's right.

00:34:32.000 Carrie, I think, is a foregone conclusion at this point.

00:34:34.000 Wouldn't you agree?

00:34:36.000 Of course, Carrie.

00:34:38.000 Carrie's going to win the governorship by anywhere between $80,000 to $200,000.

00:34:38.000 Carrie's one.

00:34:42.000 We're going to be celebrating a wonderful national audience in a victory speech, I hope, tonight.

00:34:48.000 Tonight.

00:34:49.000 Yep.

00:34:49.000 Tonight.

00:34:50.000 Everyone should be tuning into that because it's going to be awesome.

00:34:53.000 Yeah.

00:34:54.000 Email us freedom at charliekirk.com.

00:35:11.000 Welcome back, everybody.

00:35:12.000 What's going on in Nevada, guys?

00:35:13.000 There's some funny business in Clark County.

00:35:15.000 Yeah, it sounds like, so, you know, we're in a really, really strong position on paper right now in Nevada, but here's the big X factor, especially concerning Laxalt.

00:35:26.000 I think Lombardo's out of range on this, but 100,000 mail-in still remaining in Clark County.

00:35:33.000 It's an estimate.

00:35:34.000 We're not exactly sure, but 100,000.

00:35:37.000 We're actually texting with Rich Barris right now, People's Pundit, Big Data Poll, Rich Barris.

00:35:42.000 He's saying, you know, that's what's expected to come in over the next four days.

00:35:46.000 It leans Dem, but it ain't all them.

00:35:49.000 And the New York Times is out there already.

00:35:52.000 Election officials in Nevada say they've been flooded by thousands of mail-in ballots, and it may take several days to count the votes and upload the results.

00:36:02.000 There's just no way to tell which way it's going to break in Clark County.

00:36:07.000 Based on Rich is saying that there was 400,000 votes in Clark County, right?

00:36:14.000 To net Dem's 40,000.

00:36:16.000 So unless they're shenanigans, they're not going to make it up when you count all the rurals.

00:36:22.000 Laxalt's still the favorite.

00:36:23.000 Laxalt's team said we're safely outside the margin of fraud in Clark.

00:36:27.000 We have lawyers and watchers everywhere.

00:36:28.000 Laxalt's going to win.

00:36:29.000 Yeah, I was talking actually with Laxalt's team after we got off the show last night.

00:36:34.000 I think they were watching us, and they said, look, our margins in these rural counties out there, and even obviously Washaw.

00:36:41.000 And actually, Andrew, you were the one who went through it.

00:36:43.000 You went through.

00:36:44.000 You had the Google map up here.

00:36:46.000 What did I say?

00:36:46.000 I said 70, 30.

00:36:48.000 I said 70, 30 and then Lyon County.

00:36:50.000 It's breaking more than that.

00:36:51.000 7422.

00:36:52.000 These rural counties are breaking huge.

00:36:55.000 Now, they're not very populous.

00:36:57.000 Yeah, but this is the desert rate.

00:36:59.000 There's still only 70% in.

00:37:00.000 There's only 60% in in Lyon.

00:37:02.000 But the margins are great.

00:37:03.000 The margins, and we're gaining each ballot drop on those.

00:37:07.000 So, I mean, we're feeling really solid.

00:37:09.000 And if Laxalt's in, Lombardo's in, that's a big deal.

00:37:13.000 And by the way, there's a bunch of down ballot rates.

00:37:17.000 Charlie, stop getting my hopes up.

00:37:17.000 Someone just said Charlie.

00:37:18.000 There's no way Carrie Lake wins.

00:37:20.000 Oh, my gosh.

00:37:21.000 I understand you're jaded, everybody, but it's okay to believe.

00:37:24.000 Put the math back up.

00:37:25.000 Show the numbers again.

00:37:26.000 She's going to win by 120,000 votes, guys.

00:37:29.000 Belief.

00:37:29.000 I mean, I hate to say, Jack, how many times do we have to go through this and actually build credibility with people?

00:37:33.000 We don't do these.

00:37:34.000 I mean, did we get one call wrong last night?

00:37:36.000 Guys, don't forget to do this again.

00:37:39.000 I know.

00:37:39.000 Like he did during the night of the primary.

00:37:42.000 He sat there.

00:37:42.000 Ron Johnson.

00:37:44.000 Come on.

00:37:45.000 We're going to get between in Maricopa alone a net gain for Carrie of $85,000 to $92,000.

00:37:54.000 And Pima's marriage drops coming from.

00:37:56.000 And we're only down 10, we're only down 10, 12,000 votes right now for Carrie.

00:38:00.000 Maricopa's going to get her ahead by about 70,000.

00:38:03.000 Just wait till the same day, Election Day in Coconino and Pima come in.

00:38:06.000 I'm telling you, they haven't even reported.

00:38:08.000 And Tyler's right.

00:38:09.000 They're holding back to try to crush Blake.

00:38:11.000 Charlie's accurate on this.

00:38:13.000 We were talking about this for days leading up to the election.

00:38:15.000 Remember last week, it was about a week ago, I started saying, guys, we might win Coconedo County.

00:38:20.000 And the reason was at the time, a week ago, it was like only 17,000 votes had been tabulated up until last Thursday.

00:38:26.000 That is a massive, massive undervote in Coconuto County, which means that we're going to have a lot of votes that show up.

00:38:32.000 Charlie's right.

00:38:33.000 And they're all red votes.

00:38:34.000 So like it is plausible that we have like a 65, 70% turnout for Kerry and Blake in Coconedo County, which is like, this is why they're like holding back, I think, on these results.

00:38:46.000 They are.

00:38:46.000 Because they're like, it's going to just like, the AP is going to call.

00:38:50.000 Let me just.

00:38:50.000 So, for example, in 2018, when Doug Ducey ran for the governorship here in Arizona in Pima County, which is, again, it's University of Arizona.

00:39:00.000 It's Tucson, not exactly a stronghold, right?

00:39:03.000 Doug Ducey in Pima County lost, but he lost by three points.

00:39:07.000 Okay.

00:39:08.000 So then you say, well, Charlie, how are things going right now in Pima County?

00:39:11.000 Well, currently, it has Kerry Lake down 28 points.

00:39:14.000 Right.

00:39:15.000 So what I'm saying is that there's about to be a surge of same-day votes in Pima County.

00:39:19.000 We might not win Pima County.

00:39:20.000 You're not losing it by 28 points.

00:39:22.000 It's not possible, okay?

00:39:24.000 Right?

00:39:24.000 So, I mean, it's very obvious Pima and Coconina are holding back.

00:39:27.000 Our best voters.

00:39:28.000 I think it's the worst case scenario we lose Pima County.

00:39:31.000 45 points.

00:39:33.000 Well, this is where the turnout numbers matter.

00:39:36.000 It's important to look at the turnout numbers, right?

00:39:38.000 We could lose Pima County by like 15, 18 points.

00:39:43.000 But we still have 10 points to make up.

00:39:45.000 It's still moving in our direction.

00:39:47.000 It shows right now, and it shows Blake down almost 30 points, 28 points.

00:39:51.000 That's just not true.

00:39:52.000 That's not accurate.

00:39:53.000 Not going to happen, right?

00:39:54.000 And by the way, Coachise is about to go bright red.

00:39:57.000 It hasn't reported fully.

00:39:58.000 There's no way you only win Coach East by 14 points.

00:40:01.000 Yeah, I agree with that too.

00:40:03.000 Coach East probably has a few.

00:40:04.000 But this is the story.

00:40:06.000 But this is the story for the remaining rural counties.

00:40:09.000 There's a patchwork of a bunch of like 5,000 votes here and 5,000 votes there.

00:40:14.000 And that's what's going to happen.

00:40:14.000 They're going to turn out bright red.

00:40:16.000 Yuma is the same thing, by the way.

00:40:17.000 Yeah, nobody in Mojave and Yuma and Yavapai and Cochise are voting for Katie Hobbs everywhere.

00:40:25.000 No, I mean, Yavapai, Yavapai, I think, is only going to extend even more, in my opinion.

00:40:29.000 Andrew, what are we looking at?

00:40:31.000 Well, we're going race by race, basically.

00:40:37.000 We're going to give you updates on all of the races that we sort of pinpointed before Tuesday to really look out for, right?

00:40:48.000 So we've got three races that were on our hit list in Georgia, Georgia 2, Georgia 6, Georgia 10.

00:40:55.000 Arizona, there's four races we're looking at.

00:40:57.000 Eli Crane just won.

00:40:59.000 He's a newcomer from a Debs seat, so that's a pickup in AZ2.

00:41:04.000 Wisconsin, Jesse James just won a Michigan.

00:41:08.000 That's going to be a pickup.

00:41:11.000 Florida, we had Anna Polina.

00:41:13.000 That was technically a flip.

00:41:15.000 And then Laura Lee, right?

00:41:19.000 In Florida 15.

00:41:20.000 So Florida 15, Florida 13.

00:41:23.000 Salazar won.

00:41:25.000 Michigan, John Gibbs lost.

00:41:27.000 That was tough.

00:41:28.000 That was a big loss, actually.

00:41:29.000 I haven't looked at those numbers recently.

00:41:31.000 Michigan 7, Tom Barrett, he was an underdog.

00:41:35.000 I think we lost that.

00:41:36.000 Michigan just didn't go our way.

00:41:39.000 Michigan was a bad night.

00:41:40.000 Michigan.

00:41:41.000 Michigan, Wisconsin, Ron Johnson, God bless him, pulled it off.

00:41:44.000 He really carried a lot there.

00:41:45.000 But the Midwest, the upper Midwest did not deliver, man.

00:41:48.000 Like, the congressional districts in Illinois are a bloodbath.

00:41:51.000 We had a lot of pickup opportunities there, and they're just not there.

00:41:56.000 Unfortunately, I mean, that's just, I mean, like, for example, Lauren Underwood won by seven points, and she's a communist in the 14th congressional district in Illinois.

00:42:05.000 Yeah.

00:42:05.000 I mean, that was a potential pickup.

00:42:06.000 I mean, that's a seat that can be won.

00:42:08.000 Lauren Underwood is awful.

00:42:09.000 She's terrible.

00:42:11.000 So, yeah, I mean, look, the upper Midwest, and people say, you know, Charlie, what about fraud?

00:42:15.000 Look, they've perfected mail-in balloting, so we have to get better.

00:42:18.000 Okay, this is going to keep happening each cycle.

00:42:19.000 So we've got to figure it out.

00:42:21.000 What's the game plan?

00:42:22.000 I'm open to ideas, right?

00:42:24.000 But, Andrew, is that the right attitude?

00:42:24.000 Yeah.

00:42:26.000 We've got to figure this out because.

00:42:28.000 Well, I mean, there's a time.

00:42:29.000 I mean, you tweeted about this morning.

00:42:31.000 You said there's going to be a lot of time to point fingers at people.

00:42:34.000 Right now, we've got to keep our eyes on what we can actually win.

00:42:36.000 We're in for a battle here in the state of Arizona for the next four or five days.

00:42:40.000 We're in a battle in Nevada for a few days as those mail-ins come in in Clark County.

00:42:47.000 But, you know, I think if you're going to sum this up, there is, the Dobbs vote.

00:42:55.000 It was huge, especially in the Upper Midwest and then Pennsylvania.

00:42:55.000 Was huge.

00:43:00.000 I think the Dobbs vote, you know, we talk about how they had this enthusiasm gap.

00:43:08.000 NBC came out with a poll.

00:43:09.000 Everybody fixated on one.

00:43:11.000 It was almost like misdirection.

00:43:13.000 Everybody fixated on one data point.

00:43:15.000 That was that 82% of the country felt that the country was going in the wrong direction.

00:43:19.000 Okay.

00:43:20.000 Well, that's interesting.

00:43:20.000 But the buried lead was the fact that Dems made up the enthusiasm gap.

00:43:26.000 How did they do that?

00:43:27.000 They spent, they spent, they spent, they tick-tocked on two issues: abortion, abortion, and that, you know, a bunch of terrorists, fascists are going to take over.

00:43:36.000 Student loans do, man.

00:43:37.000 Student loans, I think, is absolutely one of those hidden deals.

00:43:40.000 All right, let's go through Georgia's seats here.

00:43:42.000 Georgia, two.

00:43:42.000 Please.

00:43:45.000 Unfortunately, got crushed.

00:43:48.000 Yeah, we got crushed.

00:43:49.000 10 points.

00:43:50.000 10 points.

00:43:50.000 Bishop won that.

00:43:52.000 So that was a loss.

00:43:54.000 Georgia, six, that was an open seat.

00:43:56.000 McCormick crushed 24 points.

00:44:01.000 Win plus 24.

00:44:03.000 All right.

00:44:07.000 Let's go to Ohio.

00:44:09.000 I think that would be an interesting one.

00:44:11.000 Again, what we're doing here is we are going.

00:44:17.000 We had isolated some targets in advance.

00:44:23.000 And so here, let me see here.

00:44:26.000 Struggling to pull up the statement.

00:44:28.000 Yeah, while you do that, can I just mention Kelly Schabaka in Alaska is running a Gran a Great race.

00:44:34.000 She is winning, but she is against Leisha Murkowski.

00:44:37.000 She's going to lose.

00:44:38.000 But she's going to lose because of ranked choice voting.

00:44:40.000 So Kelly Shabaka is going to win the most amount of votes, but a plurality, not a majority.

00:44:48.000 It's just a shame.

00:44:50.000 That's right.

00:44:51.000 And so that's where we're at with Kelly Shabaka there.

00:44:54.000 And so it looks like Lisa Murkowski, thanks to much McConnell's $9 million and reconfiguring the voting laws, does quite a lot, doesn't it?

00:45:06.000 That one is so frustrating.

00:45:08.000 And I was having this debate with somebody.

00:45:09.000 They're like, oh, no, but it just avoids a runoff.

00:45:11.000 And it's like, no, the runoff happens miraculously, you know, through this second vote, right?

00:45:19.000 And, you know, she's basically, you know, Chewbacca's going to get, they're going to enforce their moderate pick through the system.

00:45:29.000 And that's not the way this stuff's supposed to go.

00:45:31.000 If you win your race, you should win.

00:45:33.000 I mean, I think Georgia's runoff rules are ridiculous, if I'm being honest.

00:45:38.000 It is, but honestly, it's bailing us out.

00:45:39.000 It's bailing us out.

00:45:40.000 He's winning into the proliferation.

00:45:41.000 Well, we wouldn't have, I mean, had they not had a libertarian.

00:45:44.000 Yeah, they do that every state, man.

00:45:45.000 It's an intentional, it's a dark money thing, and it's very obvious what they want.

00:45:50.000 So, yeah, look, Ohio went poorly despite JD Vance.

00:45:53.000 Ohio one, we lost by four.

00:45:55.000 Ohio 13 lost by six.

00:45:56.000 Ohio nine lost by double digits, man, in Ohio.

00:46:00.000 Dem flip in Ohio.

00:46:02.000 You know what was really clear is that people were bombarded over JD and they got that.

00:46:05.000 They received the message, but they felt a lot of comfort split ticketing.

00:46:09.000 A lot of people in Ohio felt some comfort split ticketing.

00:46:12.000 Shabbat was a Republican incumbent, and he lost.

00:46:15.000 We got to have a break here.

00:46:16.000 Email us, freedom at charliekirk.com.

00:46:39.000 The Charlie Kirk Show starts now.

00:46:43.000 Okay, welcome back, everybody.

00:46:44.000 Email me freedom at charliekirk.com.

00:46:46.000 Yeah, you look across the country.

00:46:47.000 The industrial Midwest was the swing in the miss.

00:46:50.000 It really was.

00:46:51.000 The Northeast underperformed based on projections.

00:46:54.000 Would you agree with that, Andrew?

00:46:55.000 But the Midwest was the massive loser last year.

00:46:58.000 I'm not kidding.

00:46:59.000 I'm very, very curious how many, and we talked about this in hour one.

00:47:03.000 I'm very curious how many people just emigrated out of these states.

00:47:08.000 Well, I mean, me.

00:47:09.000 I mean, I left Illinois.

00:47:10.000 Exactly.

00:47:11.000 And I think a lot of people from New York, the question is, did Zeldon's voters move to Florida?

00:47:17.000 Did Tudor Dixon's voters move to Texas and Arizona?

00:47:24.000 It's an open question.

00:47:24.000 A lot of them, people are moving to Tennessee as well.

00:47:26.000 That's a lot.

00:47:26.000 And I mean, you get more, you get more of more, right?

00:47:28.000 So, trends start to then extrapolate.

00:47:31.000 And, I mean, the more credit that I can pour on to Ron Johnson for still winning, that's a big deal, man.

00:47:38.000 I mean, Wisconsin is structurally a very difficult state to win statewide.

00:47:42.000 They ran a ton of ads against him.

00:47:44.000 And Ron Johnson won.

00:47:45.000 That's a really big deal.

00:47:46.000 Ron Johnson, we mentioned this last night.

00:47:48.000 Ron Johnson is an amazing politician.

00:47:50.000 He's the best.

00:47:51.000 He works the state.

00:47:52.000 He's so disciplined.

00:47:53.000 By the way, Ron Johnson, he went after the vaccine stuff.

00:47:55.000 He had Dr. Malone, Dr. McCullough.

00:47:57.000 God bless that, man.

00:47:58.000 That is a victory that all of us should enjoy.

00:48:01.000 He was being headhunted by the pharmaceutical companies.

00:48:04.000 Pfizer, AstraZeneca, Johnson Johnson.

00:48:06.000 They went after Ron Johnson with everything that they had.

00:48:10.000 And Ron Johnson won convincingly last night.

00:48:12.000 That's a big victory.

00:48:13.000 It's a massive.

00:48:14.000 It's really big, especially considering.

00:48:15.000 We could have lost that.

00:48:17.000 I mean, we could have lost that.

00:48:18.000 Because, I mean, look.

00:48:19.000 The way the rest of the country went, we could have lost it.

00:48:21.000 Honestly, there was a time last night, you guys go back and rewatch the game tape, where it looked like that this was going from like, okay, Florida, and we held, thankfully.

00:48:29.000 It went from this could have been like a very bad, a bad night.

00:48:32.000 It was a good night.

00:48:33.000 You know what I mean?

00:48:34.000 There was kind of that wiggling.

00:48:35.000 I was like, oh, bad.

00:48:36.000 Oh, boy, how bad is this going to break?

00:48:38.000 And so, look, if Salazar won by 15 in Florida's 2017.

00:48:42.000 That's crazy.

00:48:43.000 That is a Democrat district, too.

00:48:45.000 Well, it used to be in Miami-Dade County.

00:48:48.000 And so, look, here's the thing: David Schweiker right now is down in Scottsdale.

00:48:53.000 That's going to flip with the later votes.

00:48:54.000 Eli Crane is going to win.

00:48:55.000 Kelly Cooper down by 14.

00:48:59.000 People say that she lost.

00:49:00.000 And then Juan Siscimani up two with lots of votes outstanding, including late Pima.

00:49:05.000 That's great.

00:49:06.000 So, well, the incumbent in Arizona 04, Arizona 4, Kelly Cooper, was our candidate.

00:49:12.000 If this flips, if that flipped, it would have been a big deal.

00:49:15.000 But he's running up against Greg Stanton, the former mayor of Phoenix.

00:49:19.000 I think that's, I think that's the same thing.

00:49:20.000 I mean, the guy's got name ID.

00:49:22.000 He's got, I mean, that's a good point.

00:49:23.000 Yeah, but Juan Siscomani, the fact that Juan Siscomani is up two points, that district covers Pinal and Pima.

00:49:29.000 That's AZ6.

00:49:30.000 Yeah, and that's the southern part of the state, if I'm not mistaken.

00:49:33.000 It's a Dem seat.

00:49:35.000 It would have been, yeah.

00:49:36.000 But Juan is an establishment pick.

00:49:38.000 So, you know, there's a little bit of.

00:49:40.000 We need seats.

00:49:40.000 Whatever.

00:49:41.000 We need the majority right now.

00:49:42.000 100%.

00:49:43.000 I'm just sending subpoenas like frisbees.

00:49:45.000 As we kind of break it down, you know, as we do our post-mortem, which I don't want to call it that.

00:49:50.000 I mean, listen, this was not a red wave, but it wasn't.

00:49:53.000 I mean, if Blake pulls this off, this is a very positive result.

00:49:59.000 Look, really what we're seeing here is the tale of different countries, which is the Midwest sensibilities outside of Iowa and Ohio, abortion is a loser.

00:50:06.000 I'm sorry, it is.

00:50:07.000 I'm pro-life as it gets.

00:50:08.000 I speak at pro-life dinners.

00:50:09.000 I love pro-life.

00:50:10.000 I mean, you know how pro-life I am, right?

00:50:12.000 You're very pro-life.

00:50:13.000 Outspoken.

00:50:13.000 I'm very pro-life.

00:50:14.000 Nobody challenges your pro-life bonafe because they don't like what I'm going to say next, which is we need to have political power.

00:50:19.000 We need to figure out how to communicate about that.

00:50:19.000 We need to win.

00:50:21.000 You cannot govern too much beyond the political power that the people give you, right?

00:50:26.000 I mean, and what we found last night, I talked about this.

00:50:28.000 You got all down on me when I talked about it.

00:50:30.000 But the bottom line is that there's a lot of people in this country that have been fear-mongered to about the abortion issue.

00:50:37.000 A lot of Gen Z women came out because of that.

00:50:40.000 I mean, that's a human right and all of this stuff.

00:50:42.000 And it's like, well, no, listen, it's somebody else's life.

00:50:45.000 To use the analogy, you know, last night we wanted kind of like a touchdown.

00:50:48.000 It's like a field goal, right?

00:50:49.000 We still put points on the board, right?

00:50:51.000 Ronda Santis won by 20.

00:50:52.000 Pelosi's out.

00:50:53.000 Pelosi's going to be out.

00:50:54.000 We take the Senate.

00:50:55.000 And in some ways, I just want you to paint this, guys, for a second.

00:50:58.000 If it would have been an overwhelmingly red wave, let's pretend it was a 40-seat, the Rhinos would have had a lot more power.

00:51:03.000 I want you to break that.

00:51:04.000 This is not a popular argument, but I'm going to make it.

00:51:07.000 And I know people say, oh, Charlie, you're just trying to cope or finding silver lining.

00:51:10.000 Actually, not.

00:51:11.000 We actually probed this out with Matt Gates, remember?

00:51:13.000 And we got a lot of hate mail, that there is an argument to make that with a slimmer majority, the conservatives have more power.

00:51:19.000 And also, we have a mandate to improve the Republican Party.

00:51:23.000 When you have a night that's not as good, you know what it's like, Andrew?

00:51:26.000 It's where you are running, you play up against a really bad opponent and you win narrowly, and you're like, man, we should have crushed that team, but we still won.

00:51:34.000 And we almost feel like you lost, right?

00:51:35.000 Yep.

00:51:36.000 That's how this feels.

00:51:37.000 You're like, okay, we won, but we thought we were going to win 49-0 at halftime, and we went to double overtime.

00:51:42.000 Yeah.

00:51:42.000 Well, and listen, if you're looking across the map and you're looking for good news, let's look to New York.

00:51:49.000 New York was a place where we got some pickups.

00:51:51.000 Okay, listen.

00:51:52.000 I was looking at Illinois and I was saying, is there, I didn't expect to win Illinois.

00:51:57.000 Darren Bailey, God bless him.

00:51:59.000 We had him on the show.

00:52:00.000 If it was a wave, it could have happened.

00:52:01.000 Yeah, I mean, listen, I never thought that was going to happen, okay?

00:52:06.000 But what you see in New York, you lose hundreds of thousands of your conservative population to Florida, and yet a 70-30 deep blue state basically became a 60-40, if not like a 55-45.

00:52:19.000 I mean, you got Chuck Schumer right now losing with 90% of the vote, or winning rather, to Joe Pignon, 56-43.

00:52:30.000 That's, I mean, that's the House majority, or the Speaker, Senate majority leader, thank you.

00:52:38.000 That's the Senate majority leader winning his seat by, you know, a 13-point, I mean, that's 56 to 43.

00:52:45.000 That ain't much in a deep, deep, deep blue New York, right?

00:52:49.000 Well, Kathy Hochl, same story.

00:52:51.000 52 to 47.

00:52:52.000 That's super, super tight.

00:52:54.000 52 to 40.

00:52:55.000 Lee Zeldon fought, man.

00:52:56.000 That's a five-point race.

00:52:57.000 So just so we're clear, it's New York 22.

00:52:59.000 Less than 300,000 votes.

00:53:00.000 New York 22, New York 19, New York 17.

00:53:02.000 Long Island is great.

00:53:03.000 Lee Zeldon did heroes' work by making this a competitive race for Republicans up and down.

00:53:09.000 Which will get us the House majority.

00:53:10.000 You're absolutely right.

00:53:11.000 Maliatakis won.

00:53:14.000 New York showed up.

00:53:15.000 New York Patriots out there, God bless you.

00:53:17.000 I know it feels bad tonight, but honestly, these New York congressional races are going to give us the majority and give us the ability to investigate Fauci, to be able to impeach Garland, to be able to impeach Mayorkis.

00:53:26.000 That's a big deal, guys.

00:53:28.000 And Stefanik, obviously.

00:53:29.000 And then the big one is Maloney, right?

00:53:39.000 So Lawler, New York Times still has it outstanding, but Maloney has called to concede to Mike Lawler.

00:53:46.000 That's the head of the DCC, Driple C.

00:53:49.000 And Mike Lawler just beat him.

00:53:50.000 It's a big deal, man.

00:53:51.000 That's a really big deal.

00:53:52.000 That's a big story.

00:53:54.000 That's a really big story, okay?

00:53:55.000 So look, I just want to encourage our New York Patriots.

00:53:58.000 You guys played a role in saving the Republic, even though you lost the statewide race.

00:54:02.000 Showing up in big numbers, Maliotakis, all these people.

00:54:06.000 It's giving us the House majority.

00:54:07.000 New York 22nd is looking like it's going to go our way.

00:54:11.000 Brandon Williams, Republican over Francis Cannoli.

00:54:15.000 That's a Republican over Democrat.

00:54:16.000 That's 94% of the votes in.

00:54:18.000 It's 50.6 to 49.4.

00:54:22.000 Let's see here.

00:54:23.000 And I think that's an open seat or a new seat.

00:54:29.000 New York 23, Langworthy over Dela Pia.

00:54:34.000 Tenney over Holden and New York 24.

00:54:37.000 Those are all good.

00:54:38.000 Those are all good.

00:54:39.000 That's one's a new seat, and one's a pickup.

00:54:43.000 This is good.

00:54:44.000 I mean, just in the last couple hours, the projection for Republican and how much we're going to control in the House is getting better and better and better.

00:54:51.000 It's getting better.

00:54:52.000 It is.

00:54:53.000 Now, I really hope we can hold on to Arizona 1, which is just ridiculous with David Schweikert and Scottsdale.

00:54:58.000 I mean, that is just the most frustrating.

00:54:59.000 That should be an easy Republican seat.

00:55:01.000 It is just so frustrating.

00:55:02.000 Eli Crane, great.

00:55:05.000 This is only going to add to the vote total.

00:55:06.000 And by the way, so you say, Charlie, what's the difference?

00:55:08.000 You're going to have Jim Jordan chairing committees.

00:55:11.000 You're going to have Matt Gates on committees.

00:55:13.000 You're going to have us in the majority.

00:55:15.000 And you better believe we're going to have a mandate for investigations, okay?

00:55:18.000 And if we would have had a 40-seat majority, you would have had a lot more Chamber of Commerce corporate interests.

00:55:25.000 Yes, I would have, 40-seat majority, we would have found our own positives, but there's positives in all things.

00:55:30.000 And the positive in this one is that you're going to have a much more conservative House of Representatives.

00:55:34.000 Well, let's build that out after the break, because I think a lot of people are sort of wondering, what do you mean, Charlie?

00:55:39.000 How can you have less of a winning night and actually sort of put more power in the country?

00:55:44.000 Yeah, so for example, I mean, if we end up having a, we have a break.

00:55:47.000 That's right.

00:55:47.000 Do we have something we need to speak about?

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00:56:29.000 Email us freedom at charliekirk.com.

00:56:30.000 Don says, Charlie, once we have power, we should break up big counties.

00:56:33.000 Yes, like Maricopa County.

00:56:35.000 Clark County next.

00:56:36.000 Yeah, we've got to break up big counties.

00:56:37.000 It's incredibly important.

00:56:39.000 We will get more transparent election results.

00:56:41.000 We will get them quicker.

00:56:42.000 We're going to win more races in more ways than one.

00:56:44.000 I'm very, very confident of that.

00:56:46.000 So people seem very worried about what's happening with Lauren Bobert.

00:56:51.000 It's not looking good.

00:56:52.000 Yeah, Bobert's, I think.

00:56:55.000 That was a sleeper, man.

00:56:56.000 That's the biggest shock of the night.

00:56:57.000 Yeah, I think that's right.

00:56:59.000 I think that and Maloney.

00:57:02.000 Maloney's a huge shock for Temps.

00:57:04.000 It was like 10 points, right?

00:57:06.000 Let's see here.

00:57:07.000 Man, that's crazy.

00:57:10.000 Yeah, Lauren Bobert was not on a lot of people's radar.

00:57:13.000 Colorado went deep blue.

00:57:15.000 They've mastered mail-in voting and all the shenanigans that go alongside it.

00:57:18.000 Email is freedom at charliekirk.com.

00:57:43.000 Welcome back, everybody.

00:57:44.000 Email us freedom at charliekirk.com.

00:57:46.000 There are some huge victories.

00:57:47.000 We're going to control the house.

00:57:48.000 We're going to control.

00:57:49.000 The Senate is completely in our ability to control.

00:57:51.000 As long as Nevada pulls through, Andrew.

00:57:52.000 As long as Nevada pulls through.

00:57:54.000 I mean, we're hearing from Laxalt's people directly, just text them during the show that they're outside of the margin of fraud and mail-ins.

00:58:05.000 They're feeling really, really good.

00:58:07.000 And you got to remember, there's a ton of rural.

00:58:09.000 Washoe still got about 35% of its vote, and it's going to skew Republican.

00:58:14.000 I'm feeling good about Washoe, but I'm going to be honest with you, that 100,000 vote mail-in is scary.

00:58:21.000 It's scary.

00:58:22.000 I mean, that's a ton of mail-ins.

00:58:24.000 Okay?

00:58:24.000 That's a ton of mail-ins.

00:58:26.000 That being said, I mean, there's 400,000 votes counted in Clark.

00:58:30.000 There's some other counties that still have votes left, right?

00:58:33.000 Oh, yeah.

00:58:34.000 Oh, yeah.

00:58:35.000 Lots of red counties still have votes left.

00:58:38.000 If we're going to look at it here, I'll pull it up right now.

00:58:41.000 So just to put it in perspective, well, so there's 500, get this.

00:58:45.000 There's 576, 577,000 votes that have already been counted in Clark County, okay?

00:58:54.000 Out of 577,000, Catherine Cortez-Masto is only, she's only netting 28,000 votes.

00:59:05.000 Really?

00:59:06.000 There's a net gain on 577,000, okay?

00:59:09.000 If you extrapolate that out, I mean, it's basically one-fourth of that.

00:59:12.000 She's looking at like gaining another like 7,000, 8,000.

00:59:16.000 Now, the question is, and that's not going to do anything for her.

00:59:19.000 The question is, are they going to skew much more than that, right?

00:59:22.000 Is it going to skew like 60-40 for her?

00:59:25.000 Is it going to skew 70-30?

00:59:27.000 You know, and are there shenanigans?

00:59:29.000 I mean, I get it.

00:59:30.000 You know, like we're not allowed to talk about this stuff.

00:59:35.000 But listen, yeah, the culinary unions, Harry Reid's, that's his neck of the woods.

00:59:40.000 He's notoriously corrupt, bad dude, corrupt business dealings, all of that stuff.

00:59:46.000 All right.

00:59:46.000 So, and actually, we're going to have Rich Barris joining us.

00:59:49.000 Rich is going to be really helpful on this.

00:59:51.000 Is he there?

00:59:52.000 Email us, everybody, freedom at charliekirk.com.

00:59:54.000 Do me a favor as we wait for Richard.

00:59:56.000 Yeah, we'll get Rich after the break.

00:59:58.000 Do me a favor, guys.

01:00:00.000 Open up your podcast application and type in Charlie Kirk Show and hit subscribe in the upper right-hand corner.

01:00:05.000 Look, last night was when you're heavily favored against an opponent.

01:00:12.000 You know what last night was?

01:00:13.000 It's when Georgia went to Missouri this last couple weeks ago, University of Georgia football team, and they end up winning, but they were favored by like 20 points, and they get nothing but negative press scrutiny afterwards.

01:00:25.000 Yeah, that's what it is.

01:00:26.000 It's like, okay, well, we won the game.

01:00:27.000 Like, we won the House.

01:00:28.000 We're going to win the Senate.

01:00:29.000 We're going to win a lot of these other states.

01:00:32.000 But everyone's like, well, why didn't you win by more?

01:00:33.000 Why didn't you win by halftime?

01:00:35.000 Why didn't you get your backup quarterback in?

01:00:37.000 Why weren't you able to punish them?

01:00:39.000 Like, you're right.

01:00:40.000 Last night should have been that.

01:00:41.000 I'll be very honest.

01:00:42.000 Last night, with gas prices, with inflation, with immigration, with Joe Biden being the most unpopular president ever, basically, since polling, this should have been a wave from See the Shining Sea.

01:00:52.000 And there's little pockets, but the industrial Midwest and the Northeast and parts of the Northwest, those kind of big three areas, they resisted it.

01:01:02.000 They wanted abortion and kind of that trans issues and Gen Z and TikTok more than...

01:01:07.000 I don't think the trans issue works against them.

01:01:09.000 I'll be really honest.

01:01:10.000 I mean, I was hearing from my friends in New York that they're just so fed up with the trans craziness stuff.

01:01:15.000 I think those are winning issues for conservatives.

01:01:18.000 The culture war stuff is, but abortion is not.

01:01:22.000 And I think, listen, I think it's one of those lived experience issues where everybody knows somebody that got accidentally pregnant or had a situation, right?

01:01:30.000 It's not right.

01:01:32.000 But I think it's just one of those things that hits real close to home.

01:01:34.000 It's very tangible.

01:01:35.000 It was a hidden Dobbs vote.

01:01:36.000 We did a whole podcast on it.

01:01:37.000 And boy, did I get some nasty emails?

01:01:39.000 Charlie, it doesn't exist.

01:01:40.000 I said, well, if it's hidden, how do you know if it's there or not?

01:01:43.000 Email us, freedom at charliekirk.com and subscribe to our podcast.

01:01:46.000 Rich Barris joins us in a second.

01:02:00.000 Welcome back, everybody.

01:02:01.000 Email me, freedom at charliekirk.com.

01:02:03.000 Thank you guys for emailing us and for all of your kind words of support.

01:02:06.000 Someone says, Charlie, you look tired.

01:02:07.000 Yeah, pal.

01:02:08.000 We were up till 4 o'clock in the morning.

01:02:10.000 Okay, and now we're streaming again just hours later.

01:02:12.000 Just like, you know, let's just call it like it is.

01:02:15.000 We have Rich Barris with us, right?

01:02:18.000 Yes?

01:02:19.000 Rich, what?

01:02:20.000 Okay, Rich, let's start with Nevada.

01:02:22.000 People are getting very nervous.

01:02:23.000 Adam Laxalt going to win?

01:02:26.000 You know, it is going to be very, very close.

01:02:28.000 Okay, we have bad audio for Rich.

01:02:30.000 Can we fix that, please, Rich?

01:02:31.000 I don't know what you're doing over there.

01:02:33.000 Sounds like you're swimming at the bottom of a fishbowl.

01:02:39.000 Okay, we'll try to get Rich back there.

01:02:41.000 Yeah, when Rich says that it's going to be very, very close in Nevada, that should make you nervous, Andrew.

01:02:48.000 I told you that 100,000 votes outstanding.

01:02:50.000 The question is, what is the waiting?

01:02:52.000 Is it waiting?

01:02:52.000 Is it late earlies?

01:02:53.000 Meaning, culinary unions, man.

01:02:55.000 Yeah, I was going to say.

01:02:57.000 So, I mean, the campaign's obviously going to present strength, right?

01:03:01.000 I mean, we were getting told from Herschel's team last night that they were going to win it without a runoff.

01:03:05.000 That's why I look at this.

01:03:06.000 Then they go down.

01:03:08.000 This is why people come to Arizona data because obviously I want people to win, but we just happen to know the data so well.

01:03:15.000 Yep.

01:03:16.000 So well.

01:03:16.000 And other places do not.

01:03:18.000 Do we have Rich Barris back or is he still retabulating?

01:03:21.000 Recalibrating, I should say.

01:03:23.000 Rich is Rich has been having a heck of an AV adventure the last 24 hours.

01:03:29.000 The poor guy, email me.

01:03:32.000 Did you say?

01:03:32.000 He's good.

01:03:34.000 All right, Rich, how are we doing?

01:03:35.000 Good.

01:03:35.000 There it is.

01:03:36.000 Yeah, you can hear me better now, right?

01:03:37.000 Rich, are we going to win Nevada?

01:03:40.000 Yeah, look, yeah, and I will say it again, but it's true.

01:03:42.000 It's going to be very, very close.

01:03:44.000 Um, because uh, they're doing what they need to do to win, though.

01:03:48.000 They are, which is because there is some vote out that's not just them vote.

01:03:53.000 Uh, you need to win Washoe County to help you pad.

01:03:56.000 Of course, the rurals help you pad, but that's not the sum total of it.

01:04:00.000 Uh, Laxalt at the end of the day did carry Washoe now.

01:04:03.000 He's up by almost four points, 3.2.

01:04:07.000 That's what you got to do.

01:04:08.000 And if the vote in Clark County, he's got it down to about four.

01:04:13.000 And again, that's what you have to do because he can lose it by like you know, nine, close to nine.

01:04:18.000 That's what that net swing will do, and he'll still win.

01:04:22.000 The vote that's out in Clark, the hundred thousand ballots that's out, it's not like, well, in 2020, it was a bunch of Democrats just basically trying to ballot harvest and get ballots to arrive two weeks later.

01:04:34.000 They only have a four-week four-day thing, they shorten this period.

01:04:38.000 So, the estimate of 100, we really don't know.

01:04:40.000 The estimate of 100 is based on how much could they do in four days.

01:04:45.000 The thing is, I don't think it's going to be heavily, heavily as Democratic as some people expect.

01:04:50.000 What do we think?

01:04:51.000 Like 400 ballots?

01:04:53.000 I mean, look, the 400,000 ballots that were first dropped in Clark County that were all the early mail-in period that only netted Democrats about 40,000 votes.

01:05:04.000 So, it would be a 3,000-vote margin for Laxalt if they did better than that, you know, marginally better.

01:05:12.000 Let's say they do, you know, about by a factor of half.

01:05:16.000 Laxalt would still hold on by about 3,000 votes.

01:05:19.000 Close, close enough for Masto to ask for a runoff.

01:05:22.000 I mean, are you taking into account all the rurals and Washoe running up a few thousand more in this direction?

01:05:29.000 And Lion County, Douglas, there's still votes out in Douglas and Lion.

01:05:34.000 Yeah, Douglas County's got a lot of people in it.

01:05:37.000 I mean, not obviously what Washoe or Clark has, but there's that's 71% of the vote.

01:05:41.000 That's 6631.

01:05:43.000 That's going to keep breaking.

01:05:44.000 I told you last night, Rich, Lion was going to be 70-30%.

01:05:46.000 It's breaking even more.

01:05:47.000 74.22.

01:05:48.000 It is, yeah.

01:05:49.000 And that's only 60% of the vote.

01:05:50.000 And that's, I mean, that's cowboy country.

01:05:52.000 I know those people.

01:05:53.000 Those are those are there.

01:05:54.000 There will be votes that continue to come in to pad.

01:05:57.000 And I think that finally, Republicans in some of these states got hit, got wise, gentlemen, and are like, no, I'll show you mine if you show me yours.

01:06:06.000 We're keeping our votes back.

01:06:07.000 Good.

01:06:08.000 Hold them back.

01:06:09.000 Good.

01:06:09.000 Hold them.

01:06:11.000 Make them play the first hand.

01:06:12.000 That's what we got to do.

01:06:13.000 We shouldn't report early.

01:06:14.000 We should hold back our cards.

01:06:17.000 Damn right.

01:06:17.000 They need to start mandating.

01:06:18.000 The father did it to Hillary Clinton in 2016.

01:06:21.000 So did Westmoreland and Pennsylvania.

01:06:23.000 I didn't remember.

01:06:23.000 They did it on purpose.

01:06:24.000 Did they really?

01:06:25.000 Yeah.

01:06:26.000 Yeah, absolutely.

01:06:26.000 They were like this.

01:06:28.000 We got to work more with Rich.

01:06:29.000 What was he called?

01:06:31.000 What was that guy on the five?

01:06:33.000 You remember the old devil?

01:06:34.000 Bob Beckley.

01:06:37.000 Do you remember that clip of him from 2010 or whatever?

01:06:41.000 He's like, yeah, we just go find the ballots we need.

01:06:42.000 And we don't know.

01:06:43.000 No, no, he said, oh, yeah, they're holding their votes back.

01:06:46.000 I used to run the elections down in Northern Virginia.

01:06:48.000 We always held our votes back.

01:06:50.000 I mean, it's transparent.

01:06:52.000 I mean, you know, because, and that's what I miss about that era, right?

01:06:57.000 Right, Rich?

01:06:58.000 It was like people back then were kind of like open about the fact that you know there was games being played and he's like yeah we held our votes back you know what I mean and now Andrew, now you seriously have people like Larry Sabado from the Crystal Ball who pretend like none of this happens, you know, and he's he's a total fraud.

01:07:16.000 Of course, he knows it happens.

01:07:18.000 He's from that area, he works at the University of Virginia.

01:07:21.000 Bob Beckle, uh, that night, I will never forget that night.

01:07:24.000 You know, but poor, I mean, look, it's not, I don't want to mock the guy's, you know, problems and suffering.

01:07:30.000 Uh, but you know, Bob has to get to a break.

01:07:32.000 I'm sorry, Rich, you got to tell the story after the break.

01:07:34.000 Let it roll.

01:07:35.000 We got a hard radio break.

01:07:36.000 We'll be right back in a second.

01:07:37.000 Everybody email me your thoughts directly, freedom at charliekirk.com.

01:08:06.000 Rich, welcome back.

01:08:08.000 Sorry about that.

01:08:08.000 Rich, we got five minutes here, then another break.

01:08:10.000 Rich, walk our audience through what you were saying.

01:08:13.000 Yeah, uh, Bob Beckle, uh, Andrew was bringing up.

01:08:16.000 I missed it ever too when people were just honest.

01:08:19.000 And Bob had some, you know, substance issues.

01:08:21.000 He was on the five that night, and he was like, Look, I've worked in Fairfax County for years.

01:08:27.000 We're doing this on purpose.

01:08:28.000 So, while good old Ed Gillespie's giving Mark Warner a ride, the folks in Fairfax are gonna count and they're gonna see how many votes Mark Warner needs, and we're gonna get him there.

01:08:37.000 That's what he said.

01:08:38.000 Um, that was probably one of the most hilarious live moments.

01:08:42.000 I think I've seen that clip where you said how cavalier he said it was the best part of it.

01:08:48.000 He's like, Yeah, we just bring in the like, what are you talking about?

01:08:51.000 Like, we're Democrats, that's what we do.

01:08:53.000 Yeah, we have counting, yeah.

01:08:55.000 We know, we gotta know how much we need before we can report.

01:08:58.000 Come on now, and by the way, that all gets you in trouble.

01:09:00.000 Like, we're probably gonna get flagged by the election integrity unit on like social media or whatever.

01:09:04.000 And it's like, we're gonna play the clip, and we're gonna prove to you exactly what we're talking about because this is real stuff.

01:09:11.000 By the way, I just laugh, Rich.

01:09:12.000 People are so behind all of a sudden.

01:09:13.000 They're like, oh, wow, latest numbers out of Maricopa County.

01:09:15.000 We had the numbers like an hour and a half ago, pals.

01:09:17.000 Okay, see, do you want anything out of it?

01:09:18.000 Terry Lake is going to win.

01:09:20.000 It's going to be kind of comfortable.

01:09:21.000 Marketing is going to win.

01:09:25.000 I mean, guys, I hate to tell everybody.

01:09:25.000 120,000.

01:09:28.000 This is on, there's nothing Katie Hobbs can do about this.

01:09:31.000 She's done.

01:09:31.000 She's finished.

01:09:32.000 And, you know, the Blake Masters do it by a half a point to a point.

01:09:38.000 So I mean, I see a very clear path for Blake.

01:09:42.000 If you said, Charlie, would you rather be in the Blake Masters camp or the Mark Kelly camp?

01:09:45.000 I'd rather be in the Blake Masters camp.

01:09:46.000 I'd rather be in the camp.

01:09:48.000 Yeah, absolutely.

01:09:49.000 Absolutely.

01:09:49.000 We're talking about 700, 645,000 to 700,000 ballots yet to be counted.

01:09:54.000 And get this, Rich.

01:09:56.000 So you know Arizona pretty well.

01:09:58.000 Do you know that they currently have Blake Masters losing Pima County by 28 points?

01:10:03.000 They haven't counted election day votes yet in Pima or Coconino.

01:10:06.000 And we had, yep, in our polling, Charlie, and it's going to happen.

01:10:11.000 I'm comfortable that I'm right because I can see what Lake is doing.

01:10:14.000 She's at only 38.

01:10:16.000 She's going to go to like 43.

01:10:18.000 And he's going to go to maybe 40 or 41.

01:10:18.000 Yep.

01:10:20.000 And that's going to be what he needs to be able to, you know, it's the difference between a three or four point win and the difference between a half a point, you know, a one and a half point win.

01:10:29.000 What does that translate into rob votes, Rich?

01:10:32.000 Right now, he's down by about 70,000 in Pima, so he needs to tighten it by about, you know, 10 to 15, depending on how much more there is.

01:10:42.000 10 to 15 in that county alone.

01:10:45.000 So we ran the numbers, Rich.

01:10:46.000 Yeah.

01:10:46.000 Go ahead.

01:10:47.000 Yeah.

01:10:48.000 I was just going to say that look at the dump from Pima last night.

01:10:52.000 They won that dump and they won it pretty significantly.

01:10:55.000 It comes down at this point that Democrats, their votes are counted.

01:10:59.000 And yes, they have some votes out there, but they're always going to be on the opposite side of the margins.

01:11:04.000 And last night when I left you guys, the dump that I was talking about was the 30,000, not the 100,000, the 30,000 ballot dump that came from Maricopa was about 32,000.

01:11:16.000 And that was the remaining parts of Maricopa that are better for Democrats.

01:11:21.000 They lost it by 35 points or 31, excuse me.

01:11:24.000 So, and they, meaning Democrats, they lost it by 31 points.

01:11:27.000 So now we're just down to voting behavior and the difference in voters by behavior.

01:11:31.000 The Democrats that got margins that benefited them, it came in that early vote dump.

01:11:37.000 The election day and the votes that were put into the draw, which are not all counted as I understand it, and the votes that were dropped off on election day.

01:11:46.000 Charlie, you know it.

01:11:47.000 We've been talking about this, guys.

01:11:49.000 That vote is going to go heavily, heavily Republican.

01:11:53.000 And you know what?

01:11:55.000 I can actually pull up my handy dandy exit here because we asked these people, you know, how are you going to vote?

01:12:04.000 And then if you vote on elect you know on election day, by drop off, I mean, it's a huge margin.

01:12:10.000 I got to sign in again.

01:12:11.000 I guess it locked me out, but and I can as we're talking.

01:12:14.000 And maybe I'll bring it to you on the next break.

01:12:15.000 I don't know how much time we have.

01:12:16.000 Well, we got a minute.

01:12:17.000 We got a minute until we go back.

01:12:18.000 Yeah.

01:12:20.000 And we were right about the election day margin.

01:12:22.000 And I was getting a little concerned.

01:12:23.000 Maybe I'm wrong about how big that margin is because the election day was like 50 points in some places.

01:12:30.000 But guess what?

01:12:30.000 It was 51 last night.

01:12:33.000 So I'm pretty confident I'm right about how these election day hand-dropped mail ballots are going to go.

01:12:39.000 And it's not, Democrats don't have any votes to win here.

01:12:43.000 Yeah.

01:12:44.000 I mean, every single new drop should be trending in our way.

01:12:48.000 And Rich, and we can save this for radio, but we did this early in the morning.

01:12:53.000 Maricopa alone, ballots outstanding.

01:12:56.000 We're looking at like between like 85 and 92,000 net gain for Kerry and Blake, roughly.

01:13:02.000 Kerry outperformed them.

01:13:04.000 Yes.

01:13:04.000 That's Maricopa alone.

01:13:05.000 He's down 90,000.

01:13:08.000 So he's going to make it up in Maricopa alone.

01:13:11.000 Then there's Yava Pie.

01:13:13.000 And what comes in from Pima is going to be better for Democrats, but it's still going to be a loss.

01:13:19.000 They're not going to win them.

01:13:20.000 Yeah, we're just coming back to Radio Richard.

01:13:28.000 Learn more in three hours than four years at a woke university.

01:13:32.000 And it's free.

01:13:34.000 The Charlie Kirk Show.

01:13:35.000 So we're here with Richard Barris.

01:13:37.000 Richard, just Rich, stay right there.

01:13:38.000 I want to tell everybody about preparewithkirk.com.

01:13:41.000 Look, if things start to fall apart, you guys have got to be able to have the emergency preparedness food that you need to survive.

01:13:47.000 You are nine meals away from anarchy.

01:13:50.000 Nine meals away from anarchy.

01:13:50.000 That's right.

01:13:52.000 So you have to make sure you have the emergency preparedness food.

01:13:54.000 Benny, are you prepared in case something happens?

01:13:56.000 You are?

01:13:56.000 Yes.

01:13:57.000 Yes, I am.

01:13:58.000 You went to preparewithkirk.com.

01:14:00.000 I did.

01:14:00.000 There you go.

01:14:01.000 It's incredible.

01:14:02.000 And you have the alligator that we love to eat in Florida.

01:14:05.000 I have it.

01:14:06.000 It is actually an amazing anarchist.

01:14:07.000 It's a great box.

01:14:09.000 Store it easily in the shed when you need it.

01:14:13.000 20-year shelf life.

01:14:14.000 My wife looked at me like I was crazy.

01:14:16.000 I was like, we need to buy a bunch of like perishable food and just put it in a giant tub up in the attic.

01:14:20.000 And so that's what we've done.

01:14:21.000 No, you don't even need to do that.

01:14:22.000 You just buy it from my Patriot supply.

01:14:23.000 They send it to you in a giant tub and then it's just there.

01:14:25.000 That is preparewithkirk.com, preparewithkirk.com.

01:14:29.000 Check it out right now.

01:14:31.000 So Rich Barris is here, People Pundits Daily and Big Data Polls.

01:14:35.000 All right, Rich, looks like we're going to a Georgia runoff.

01:14:37.000 What does that mean?

01:14:41.000 In the history of Georgia runoffs, if an incumbent does not make it during that first round, they lose.

01:14:46.000 And somebody in during our stream, we had our little pay-per-view.

01:14:49.000 It was great going in and out with you guys and jumped on after.

01:14:52.000 They brought up Shambliss.

01:14:53.000 And that is true.

01:14:54.000 Shambliss was forced to a runoff in the 08 election, but it's a bit of an outlier.

01:15:00.000 And it's not a bit.

01:15:01.000 Is an outlier because Shambliss was dealing with the Obama surge, the unheard of historic Obama surge.

01:15:09.000 And enough African-American voters came out to drag him just below 50.

01:15:14.000 But then the election, then following week, you know, the Obama hysteria was not there.

01:15:19.000 So he was able to win.

01:15:20.000 But every other incumbent in modern history goes down in flames.

01:15:24.000 More Knox voters, they had...

01:15:27.000 Look, he didn't really win because of high, high black African-American turnout.

01:15:32.000 That's not what happened.

01:15:34.000 Walker did worse than Kemp among educated people in the Atlanta suburbs.

01:15:38.000 So his voters will definitely be more juiced to grab control of that Senate because once Blake wins, they're going to say, oh, wow, we can do this.

01:15:46.000 Let's get Walker over the finish line.

01:15:49.000 And I'm again, let me go to that, Charlie.

01:15:52.000 These ballots that we're talking about, these people that dropped it off on election day, we got them at, it's a big sample.

01:15:59.000 We got them breaking 64.5 to 34.1 for Mark Kelly.

01:16:10.000 For Kerry Lake, it's about a point and a half, a couple points higher.

01:16:16.000 So Katie Hobbs does about a point and a half better than, I mean, a point and a half worse than Mark Kelly, but it's still a huge margin.

01:16:24.000 So what tranche of votes is that that breaks 64.5, 34.1?

01:16:28.000 These are the people who dropped it off on election day.

01:16:31.000 It's about a 32-point margin.

01:16:35.000 That's exactly on my clip.

01:16:37.000 Yeah, that's terrific.

01:16:38.000 Well, how many votes statewide do you think there are that would fall?

01:16:42.000 Is that just Maricopa?

01:16:44.000 No, that's every, well, this is the, that's this survey, this is the entire state in Maricopa.

01:16:50.000 Actually, yeah, Republicans did hair better than rest of state because PEM is like 17%.

01:16:58.000 Yeah.

01:16:58.000 So when you take Maricopa out, it drags it down a little bit.

01:17:01.000 So we're being told, Rich, that there's 275 of those election days.

01:17:06.000 But we were low, Charlie, talking yesterday.

01:17:09.000 I remember.

01:17:09.000 I was out of orbital Khalif.

01:17:11.000 He was like, there's got to be at least 225,000.

01:17:14.000 Well, remember, Rich, I said at least one to one, maybe 1.1 to 1.

01:17:18.000 Remember, I called you.

01:17:20.000 I said, if we're at 1 to 1, we're cooking with gas.

01:17:22.000 Look, it is possible, okay?

01:17:24.000 It is possible in politics.

01:17:26.000 You have to kind of show the window.

01:17:28.000 It is possible when it's all sudden and done, Kerry Lake wins by 175,000 votes.

01:17:32.000 I don't think that's right.

01:17:34.000 I mean, that's there.

01:17:35.000 If that's the case, Blake Masters wins by 30,000 votes.

01:17:35.000 Oh, yeah.

01:17:38.000 Now, it's also possible.

01:17:40.000 The worst case scenario, like everything falls apart and these ballots aren't what we think they are.

01:17:44.000 And people are running all over the place and Steven Richard is like shredding ballots or whatever, which we're kidding about.

01:17:52.000 Carrie Lake wins by 80,000 votes.

01:17:54.000 That's like her basement, right?

01:17:55.000 Her basement is winning by 80,000 votes.

01:17:55.000 Rich?

01:17:57.000 And I just have to say that.

01:17:58.000 Yeah, I think we're going to see some holes get blown here in that race real soon, guys, when they start dropping later tonight, especially 7 p.m.

01:18:06.000 We're being told.

01:18:07.000 12,000 votes away right now.

01:18:09.000 That last chunk, that last chunk took 42,000 lead off.

01:18:15.000 Katie Hobbs' mark.

01:18:16.000 I mean, it was like, goodbye.

01:18:18.000 And that first dump of 100K was just, if people didn't see it when that 100K came down, then I don't know.

01:18:26.000 They're blind.

01:18:27.000 It's just shocking to me.

01:18:28.000 I mean, I'm looking at the prediction markets, how dumb people are.

01:18:31.000 It's crazy.

01:18:32.000 I mean, they don't, this is a 50-50 race between Mark Kelly and Blake Masters.

01:18:37.000 And so the prediction markets have Blake Mark Kelly at 85%.

01:18:40.000 I'm like, and by the way, they have Cortez Masto at the favorite in the betting markets.

01:18:46.000 Again, I'm not a big betting market guy, but sometimes insiders place a lot of bets there.

01:18:50.000 I just think it's kind of silly, to be honest.

01:18:53.000 Well, you know why that is, though, guys?

01:18:58.000 They're thinking that Clark County is going to be Clark County as they always are.

01:19:01.000 And I don't want to get you in trouble, but they're thinking that Democrats are going to do whatever they got to do in Clark County.

01:19:06.000 That's that's that's it.

01:19:08.000 Yeah, they're Vegas, they're Vegas guys.

01:19:10.000 All right, Rich, I want to I want to ask about some house races.

01:19:13.000 Lauren Bobert, did you have that one in your on your bingo card?

01:19:17.000 Uh, you know, for tonight before going in, uh, no.

01:19:20.000 And in general, I got to tell you, um, our generic ballot is going to be dead on.

01:19:27.000 And I was just speaking to a bunch of people today saying, like, how could this happen on, you know, 20 seats?

01:19:33.000 How could this happen if you were right with your Republican plus like, you know, five?

01:19:37.000 Because the vote will shrink.

01:19:38.000 It's like six point something now.

01:19:40.000 It will shrink, but we're going to be dead on.

01:19:42.000 There, again, is something that jumps right out at me, Charlie.

01:19:46.000 If you look at the ideology, number one, it confirms what I'm about to say, which is it's very moderate.

01:19:54.000 It's a little bit more liberal than a typical midterm, even though it's more, even though it's slightly more Republican.

01:19:59.000 And also, it's not very conservative.

01:20:02.000 It's only 36% conservative.

01:20:04.000 Wherein, for instance, in Virginia, it was 41%.

01:20:06.000 It was the highest percent in 2021 for the gubernatorial election that we had seen for Virginia in like 15, 20 years.

01:20:14.000 And then that, when I see that, it makes me jump right down to education.

01:20:18.000 And I hate to say it, but I feel like Republicans won back.

01:20:24.000 They did very well.

01:20:25.000 They didn't win four-year degrees, but they did very well with them.

01:20:28.000 And they did very well with post-grads, which I took a beating for.

01:20:32.000 I had post-grads voting about 42% Republican.

01:20:36.000 They did vote 42% Republican.

01:20:38.000 The problem people like Robert Barnes and I have been trying to explain to people is that the working class vote is a more efficient vote.

01:20:45.000 And if you look at non-college, they did not win them by that much.

01:20:48.000 Democrats got to close to Obama-like margins.

01:20:51.000 Why?

01:20:52.000 Because Trump, when he wins the non-college vote, he wins non-college whites by like 30-something points.

01:20:58.000 He wins non-college minorities too.

01:21:01.000 So this is the, they did not.

01:21:03.000 They lost them.

01:21:05.000 So I feel like in their attempt to win back the educated voter or, you know, what is the media all the time?

01:21:13.000 The educated suburbs.

01:21:15.000 I feel like they sacrificed some of the working class.

01:21:17.000 So let me know.

01:21:18.000 There's going to be a lot of time for me to go over this.

01:21:18.000 I really do.

01:21:20.000 I got to pour over the data.

01:21:21.000 You know, it's been day one, but that's the one that's feeling.

01:21:25.000 Married men broke Republican by 20 points.

01:21:25.000 This one's stat.

01:21:29.000 Married women broke Republican by 14 points.

01:21:32.000 So families are plus like 16 Republican.

01:21:35.000 Unmarried men broke Republican by seven points, but unmarried women broke Democrat by 37 points.

01:21:42.000 There you go.

01:21:42.000 It is the tyranny of unmarried cat women that are really, they're miserable people.

01:21:47.000 And they have college degrees.

01:21:49.000 Well, and I think, Rich, what you're seeing in that is the Dobbs, the hidden Dobbs vote.

01:21:54.000 I mean, I think that pushed that pushed that particular demo out.

01:21:58.000 I don't know, Andrew.

01:21:59.000 No, they did better with these groups all around.

01:22:02.000 I don't think that's it because they're not getting all of these compared to 2020, 2018, and even, yeah, they did better with them.

01:22:11.000 You know, so unmarried women are five points more Democrat than in 2020.

01:22:17.000 So they became more Democrat since 2020.

01:22:21.000 That's the reason.

01:22:25.000 That's not a hidden Dobbs.

01:22:26.000 That's not a swing.

01:22:27.000 That's because of who showed up.

01:22:29.000 There weren't enough non-college of them.

01:22:31.000 If you break it down by gender, you'll see that.

01:22:34.000 That's why you can get Virginia 10 really close within five.

01:22:38.000 And Wexton barely holds on against Hung Cow in a Biden plus 20 district.

01:22:44.000 But yet Abigail Spanberger holds on in seven because Spanberger's district is more non-college.

01:22:49.000 They just didn't show.

01:22:52.000 I'm saying self-identified Republicans who showed up were more educated than the Republican voter in general.

01:23:00.000 And where they were lacking, and God, I know some people are going to be like, oh my God.

01:23:06.000 Where they were lacking was the Trump voter.

01:23:08.000 It is part of the Trump vote.

01:23:11.000 Are you really going there, Rich?

01:23:13.000 I am going there because it's true.

01:23:15.000 It's Rich.

01:23:16.000 Are you saying that if Trump would have announced on Saturday before election day that you because he didn't, honestly?

01:23:25.000 And maybe there's, I'm not doing this to like, you know, jump on the Trump train.

01:23:28.000 Maybe you can even blame Trump for not doing enough for these people.

01:23:31.000 I don't know, you know, but I'm just saying.

01:23:33.000 We're getting a lot of people talking about that, Rich.

01:23:35.000 We got a lot of emails coming in saying, you know, Trump didn't spend enough money.

01:23:39.000 He sat on his money.

01:23:40.000 He didn't come out.

01:23:41.000 And it's like, you know, a lot of people are saying he did just enough to kind of skirt responsibility either way.

01:23:46.000 I mean, I think that's, you know, probably going too far.

01:23:49.000 And honestly, Andrew, what do you think?

01:23:50.000 Because I got to tell you, I think I kind of lean that way.

01:23:53.000 I do.

01:23:54.000 I had made it very clear to people who asked me and that I knew it would get around that he was going to have to do this.

01:24:02.000 That Mitch McConnell and Kevin McCarthy, I would love to tell you guys a story to give an example of one candidate that lost.

01:24:09.000 And I went to them and told them, just like in 18, if you want to win the Senate, if you're going to run for president again in 2024, then you're going to need a Republican Congress with allies, not like a Paul Ryan Congress, not like a Mitch McConnell Congress.

01:24:23.000 You're going to need allies.

01:24:24.000 And if you want them, you better do everything you did in 2018 to make these candidates make sure they get over the finish line.

01:24:31.000 They did not do that.

01:24:31.000 And they did not.

01:24:33.000 And I don't know how much time we have in this segment, but I would love to share one candidate story.

01:24:39.000 And I will explain to you why leadership screwed this up.

01:24:43.000 Leadership.

01:24:44.000 And it does, Charlie, it overlaps with the abortion thing you're talking about because they are incompetent when it comes to dealing with the issue of abortion.

01:24:52.000 Can I get how much time do we have?

01:24:54.000 Can I roll in the next one?

01:24:55.000 Go ahead.

01:24:55.000 One minute.

01:24:55.000 And then the next segment.

01:24:56.000 Yeah, we got a next segment.

01:24:58.000 Okay, I polled for John Gibbs during the primary.

01:25:01.000 Incredibly difficult to defeat Peter Mayer, whether you think he was vulnerable or not.

01:25:04.000 He's a household name.

01:25:05.000 Kevin McCarthy, weeks and weeks go by after that primary, never calls John Gibbs, never calls him.

01:25:11.000 Eventually, when they do call, they say, you got to fire your team and bring in all of our DC consultant people.

01:25:16.000 And they did.

01:25:17.000 And I understood because he needed money and support.

01:25:20.000 But then when abortion started to hurt his unfavorable, his very unfavorable ratings, they were driving up his image with these ads.

01:25:26.000 The consultants told him, don't say anything.

01:25:28.000 Ignore it.

01:25:29.000 And I kept telling him, do not ignore it.

01:25:31.000 They spent, go after them.

01:25:33.000 Their Democratic position is an unpopular position on abortion.

01:25:37.000 They did not.

01:25:38.000 They listened to the consultants.

01:25:40.000 His unfavorables went up and he went down last night.

01:25:42.000 Bottom line is they spent a ton of money talking about crime, which was 2% of the top issue.

01:25:49.000 I mean, if you 2% of voters pick crime as their top issue, it was their strategy overall that the NRCC told these candidates to do.

01:25:58.000 It was unnatural for them and they went down because of it.

01:26:02.000 Stay right there, Rich.

01:26:03.000 You're doing a great job.

01:26:04.000 Thank you.

01:26:04.000 And also, check out People's Pundits Daily, everybody, in big data polls.

01:26:07.000 Stay right there.

01:26:08.000 Subscribe to his stuff.

01:26:09.000 Support Rich.

01:26:10.000 He's a great guy.

01:26:11.000 He's been really generous with his time.

01:26:12.000 Check out People Pundit Daily, right?

01:26:15.000 Yep.

01:26:15.000 And also big data polls.

01:26:17.000 Email us freedom at charliekirk.com.

01:26:19.000 I want to tell you guys about RoughGreens, r-u-f-f-greens.com.

01:26:23.000 Rough greens is an amazing product.

01:26:24.000 Benny, do you have a dog?

01:26:26.000 I don't.

01:26:27.000 I have kids.

01:26:28.000 Do you have a dog, Andrew?

01:26:29.000 Nope.

01:26:30.000 I have kids too.

01:26:31.000 But we love dogs.

01:26:31.000 Okay.

01:26:32.000 Maybe one day you would get a dog.

01:26:34.000 And if you do, you give them the free trial from Rough Greens.

01:26:36.000 It has barley grass, blackberry, blueberry, broccoli, flaxseed, kale, kelp, mushroom, papaya, parsley.

01:26:41.000 Do you eat this well, Benny?

01:26:42.000 I don't think so.

01:26:43.000 It's really eating great.

01:26:44.000 Roughgreens.com, your dog can eat better than you.

01:26:47.000 And it is amazing.

01:26:48.000 Free jumpstart trial.

01:26:49.000 Try Rough Greens free today.

01:26:51.000 Dogs love it.

01:26:52.000 Lifelong benefits.

01:26:53.000 Just add a scoop and add a nutrition.

01:26:55.000 Roughgreens.com, R-U-F-Greens.com.

01:26:57.000 Andrew, really quick.

01:26:57.000 Charlie, when you put this on your dog's food, I've seen your dog just like wolf set up.

01:27:03.000 That's right.

01:27:05.000 This is a true story.

01:27:06.000 Firsthound at kuffgreens.com, r-u-f-f-greens.com.

01:27:10.000 Email us freedom at charliekirk.com.

01:27:11.000 We are going to keep talking.

01:27:12.000 Rich, are you really bashing on leadership?

01:27:14.000 You got two minutes before a break.

01:27:15.000 What do you mean by that?

01:27:17.000 I've been telling people for a long time, if the Republican Party wants to become the party that they can become, which is one that wins a generic ballot by three or more and crushes Democrats nationwide, they have got to get rid of Mitch McConnell and Kevin McCarthy.

01:27:29.000 These people are not, they're not smart.

01:27:32.000 Nobody, everyone points to their ability to raise money.

01:27:35.000 Anyone in that position can raise money.

01:27:38.000 I got news for everybody.

01:27:40.000 And by the way, who are they raising money from?

01:27:42.000 If you go through Kevin McCarthy's financials right now, you're going to find Big Pharma and you're going to find Silicon Valley.

01:27:47.000 Is that representative of you?

01:27:49.000 It's not.

01:27:50.000 If you go through Mitch McConnell's best friend, Rolodex, you're going to find Beijing all over it.

01:27:54.000 Is that representative of you?

01:27:56.000 It is not.

01:27:57.000 They have got to go.

01:27:58.000 They work against you.

01:28:00.000 They work against you.

01:28:02.000 The Charlie Kirk show.

01:28:04.000 Now we're back with Rev. So, okay, keep going, Rich.

01:28:07.000 We got all these breaks of different places.

01:28:08.000 I know.

01:28:09.000 You have quite the clock that you have figured out.

01:28:11.000 It's like landing on Mars.

01:28:13.000 It's like the synchronicity.

01:28:16.000 Yeah.

01:28:16.000 That's the word for you today, right?

01:28:17.000 Cool.

01:28:18.000 Man, what a guy.

01:28:19.000 Yeah, is something.

01:28:20.000 Rich, continue one minute, and then we got to welcome back radio.

01:28:24.000 So, yeah, I mean, when it comes down to it, guys, this is another example of them dropping the ball.

01:28:31.000 And, you know, we're going to help you.

01:28:32.000 We're not going to help you.

01:28:33.000 We're going to get in.

01:28:34.000 We're going to get out.

01:28:34.000 We're going to spend.

01:28:35.000 We're not going to spend.

01:28:36.000 You're on board with us.

01:28:37.000 You're not.

01:28:38.000 RGA is another major problem, all right?

01:28:41.000 Doug Doosie may be the face of the RGA, but he doesn't run it.

01:28:44.000 The Rickets run it.

01:28:45.000 When Doug Mastriano went to go and sit down with young boy Rickett, they had a great conversation.

01:28:50.000 And then after it, they looked right at Doug Mastriano and he said, sorry, Doug, but you're just not my kind of guy.

01:28:55.000 We're not going to support you.

01:28:56.000 The reason why they didn't is because they didn't want Doug to be the governor of Pennsylvania if and when Donald Trump ran again.

01:29:02.000 They wanted to make sure, for the love of God, Donald Trump doesn't win the Keystone State and get to Pennsylvania Avenue again.

01:29:09.000 It's time for Republican voters to wake up and realize that their so-called leadership is not their friend.

01:29:14.000 Gotta take a risk.

01:29:15.000 These are their enemies.

01:29:16.000 That was real.

01:29:17.000 That was succinct.

01:29:18.000 Rich, tell people how to find you.

01:29:21.000 Peoplespundant.locals.com.

01:29:23.000 And then that'll show them everything.

01:29:24.000 You know, so we got all of the live result maps, which finally started to work.

01:29:29.000 And I apologize for all of that yesterday.

01:29:31.000 The API from Decision Desk just broke and broke everything.

01:29:35.000 It got fixed almost like around two o'clock in the morning.

01:29:38.000 I mean, it was as frustrating to me as it was to everybody else.

01:29:42.000 But everything with big data polls up there, everything with the websites up there.

01:29:48.000 I got to tell you, you know, for all the people that support the work we do, Charlie, you know, there are some that, you know, we had Oz up a little bit.

01:29:55.000 He lost.

01:29:56.000 We had Johnson up by about three.

01:29:59.000 He won, you know, but it was closer than we thought.

01:30:01.000 But in general, we did good work.

01:30:03.000 We nailed Blake Masters by seven.

01:30:05.000 That looks like we nailed it perfectly, dead on.

01:30:08.000 But, and it looks like in Nevada, we're going to be pretty close to right as well.

01:30:12.000 So, or within the sampling era.

01:30:15.000 So all the people that support the work we do, we couldn't do it without you.

01:30:18.000 And we really, really appreciate all of it.

01:30:20.000 Generic ballot's going to be dead on.

01:30:23.000 It's going to be dead on, gentlemen.

01:30:24.000 I'm really stoked about that, but it's a mystery.

01:30:27.000 Anybody, if you would have asked anybody if Republicans were leading in the House vote by six, which is more than our generic ballot, but if they were leading by six on Wednesday morning, how bad was this bloodbath?

01:30:39.000 And it just, it's the first time ever.

01:30:42.000 I think people should take a moment and appreciate the ahistorical character of this election again, but to appreciate it because anyone, not just me, anyone would have said that this is 40 plus seats if it's Republican plus six.

01:30:59.000 Yeah, so what happened then, Rich?

01:31:01.000 I mean, I got to be honest, though.

01:31:02.000 I mean, we're talking about seven seat majority, best case, right?

01:31:05.000 Like 10 seat best case.

01:31:06.000 It's probably going to be like a five seat majority.

01:31:08.000 I mean, that's a that's a 10, that's a 10 factor fold.

01:31:12.000 You're talking about a 10 sigma fold.

01:31:15.000 What happened here?

01:31:16.000 Yeah, I'm telling you, leadership blew it.

01:31:18.000 But, you know, it'll take time to go through the data, but I'm telling you, what jumps out at me immediately is that the Democratic vote was more efficient, which is the reverse of the way it usually is.

01:31:30.000 And that is because of this turnout differential between educational groups.

01:31:36.000 You know, I'm looking at New York right now.

01:31:38.000 Look, there are districts in New York that people didn't think Republicans can win or would have a harder time winning than like Virginia 7.

01:31:46.000 And that's what happened.

01:31:47.000 The people who turned out in areas like that were more educated, you know, were more educated.

01:31:52.000 The Republicans were able to do better with them.

01:31:54.000 So they brought those districts a lot closer.

01:31:57.000 But in the districts that the non-college vote is the lynchpin, they did not get enough conservative non-college out.

01:32:04.000 And you can see it's right in ideology.

01:32:06.000 It jumps right out at you.

01:32:07.000 So it tells you that the non-college that did come out was kind of less favorable to Republicans than they have been in years.

01:32:15.000 And otherwise, we would have saw that ideology breakdown, like 40% conservative or even 39 versus 36, 37 moderate.

01:32:25.000 That's how that stuff presents itself.

01:32:28.000 So the Democratic vote was more efficient.

01:32:30.000 And I think that comes down to messaging, Charlie.

01:32:33.000 They absolutely should have gone on the offensive.

01:32:35.000 You and I talked about this a million times.

01:32:37.000 You can't just shut up while somebody bludgeons you over an issue.

01:32:40.000 You can't.

01:32:41.000 You have to.

01:32:42.000 You have got to fire back.

01:32:43.000 And they did not.

01:32:44.000 Rich, I got a question for you.

01:32:46.000 I got a question for you.

01:32:47.000 Charlie may want to avoid the finger pointing right now, but I kind of don't.

01:32:50.000 And I think that it's time for people to accept the reality of the civil war inside of the Republican Party.

01:32:57.000 It does seem as though, talking about doing nothing, man, I have never seen anything more flaccid and linguine-spined than the way that the corporate GOP approached this very winnable election.

01:33:09.000 Now, I think there's a lot of synthesis to be done, but you touched on McCarthy.

01:33:14.000 I thought it was wild the way they rolled out this plan for America.

01:33:18.000 I saw nothing about it.

01:33:20.000 Nothing.

01:33:20.000 I am obsessed with following the news.

01:33:23.000 I got an entire team of young kids, 20 years old.

01:33:25.000 All they do is look at clips online.

01:33:27.000 Never once did I get a clip about Kevin McCarthy going based, going flamethrower, Kevin McCarthy rip roaring.

01:33:34.000 Never once.

01:33:36.000 I didn't get a single clip that like the corporate GOP did a single fire thing in this election.

01:33:42.000 And we cover this day in and day out.

01:33:44.000 We have the best damn people on the internet covering the hottest clips out there.

01:33:49.000 And we go nuts for it.

01:33:51.000 And if Kevin McCarthy did something boost, I would have covered it.

01:33:55.000 I have nothing against it.

01:33:57.000 But I didn't get a single clip, Rich.

01:34:00.000 Nothing.

01:34:01.000 20 seconds, and we'll talk over there.

01:34:03.000 God bless you.

01:34:04.000 Am I wrong?

01:34:05.000 Yeah, oh, I got no, no, God bless you.

01:34:07.000 They released, I thought we were going to break.

01:34:08.000 They released that mimic of a contract with America.

01:34:12.000 The website was a joke, a disaster.

01:34:14.000 It went up too early.

01:34:15.000 It was amateur hour.

01:34:16.000 Then when they finally rolled it out, it looked like it was written in 1994.

01:34:20.000 And then they took it down and they never pushed it anyway.

01:34:23.000 You have Republican voters being persecuted by the FBI and the government.

01:34:27.000 And he says nothing.

01:34:28.000 Stay right there.

01:34:29.000 Nothing.

01:34:29.000 Rich, can you check my math on this?

01:34:31.000 So with Blake.

01:34:32.000 Charlie, I just got a number, but I just got.

01:34:35.000 Oh, go ahead.

01:34:35.000 You want me to check something?

01:34:36.000 I just got some firm numbers.

01:34:38.000 Yeah, I know.

01:34:38.000 There's 428,000 minimum in Maricopa, 992 in La Pa.

01:34:43.000 See the drop-off?

01:34:44.000 What drop-off?

01:34:45.000 The drop-off number in Maricopa.

01:34:48.000 What are you talking about?

01:34:48.000 Oh, the ones that were brought in.

01:34:50.000 Yeah, it was 275,000 of them.

01:34:53.000 Yeah, I know.

01:34:54.000 And then also the party breakdown of them is insane.

01:34:57.000 Like, it's really, really good for us.

01:34:59.000 So, but, okay, so let me kind of go through this.

01:35:03.000 It's good.

01:35:03.000 Yeah, let's do the math.

01:35:05.000 So, this is for Blake Masters for control of the U.S. Senate because we got to take things in our own hands here in Arizona.

01:35:12.000 So, here's what we're doing.

01:35:13.000 So, this is how it's going.

01:35:17.000 So, in this state, where did I just had this pulled up here?

01:35:21.000 Okay.

01:35:21.000 There's a minimum convert.

01:35:23.000 There's a minimum confirmed, a minimum confirmed amount of ballots in the state of 600,000 ballots left, minimum.

01:35:29.000 But I think there's at least six, I know, Rich, I'm going to, yeah, I know.

01:35:32.000 There's at least 650,000 ballots left there.

01:35:36.000 If it's 650,000 ballots, let's say that Blake is currently down 90,000 votes.

01:35:41.000 Okay.

01:35:42.000 He's down 90,000 votes.

01:35:44.000 That means that he has to only win 58% to win by 14,000 votes.

01:35:50.000 Blake will win more than 58% of the remaining votes, period.

01:35:54.000 You have our hardest R's in Maricopa.

01:35:56.000 You got Yavapai.

01:35:57.000 You got Mojave.

01:35:58.000 You got Yuma.

01:35:59.000 You got same-day Pima, same-day Coconino.

01:36:02.000 I'm telling you, Mark Kelly is researching whether or not he can return space right now.

01:36:06.000 I'm not saying we have Blake taking the election day in Pima at least 60-40.

01:36:12.000 Sometimes it even went up to almost 70-30.

01:36:15.000 So he really, this, I don't know how Mark Kelly holds on now that I got this confirmation.

01:36:20.000 The drop-offs, gentlemen, in Maricopa are huge.

01:36:24.000 And, you know, like some people are saying, oh, they're going to lean Republican.

01:36:27.000 No, they're not.

01:36:28.000 They're going to be strongly Republican.

01:36:30.000 I don't know how Mark Kelly holds on with this number.

01:36:33.000 I actually.

01:36:34.000 Is my math right?

01:36:35.000 Am I right, Rich?

01:36:37.000 Yes, yes.

01:36:37.000 When we were talking about this yesterday, Charlie, we were trying to be conservative, right?

01:36:41.000 I'm being.

01:36:43.000 Yeah, we knew there could be this many left, but we were saying, okay, well, let's consider there's only, you know, 180, 200 election day votes and maybe another 200,000 drop-off votes.

01:36:59.000 We're way beyond that, Charlie.

01:37:00.000 And the math worked yesterday slightly for Blake.

01:37:03.000 It worked, you know, could.

01:37:05.000 It was a heavy lift, but it could.

01:37:06.000 This puts him, this gives him a buffer where he doesn't have to win the margin Kerry Lake is winning by because he's not.

01:37:14.000 He's winning by a slightly less margin.

01:37:15.000 Lake is just crushing it.

01:37:18.000 I never thought I'd see a 50-something point, 51-point margin.

01:37:22.000 I mean, they're there.

01:37:24.000 It's happening.

01:37:25.000 So this gives him a buffer where he can win them.

01:37:28.000 You know, the Pima Day election, he can win by like 15 to 20.

01:37:32.000 What's outstanding in Pima, which is, you know, of course, a Democratic county.

01:37:37.000 There's, and you even mentioned, this is why I was making such a big deal about Yavapai yesterday, even though, of course, elections are won and lost in Arizona and Maricopa.

01:37:45.000 The bottom line is you need Yavapie in case your margin doesn't break as big as you want it to.

01:37:50.000 You need Mojave.

01:37:52.000 And there's some big numbers out there.

01:37:54.000 You know, 76%.

01:37:57.000 That's wow.

01:37:58.000 You know, so that's what he needs.

01:38:01.000 If I was Mark Kelly, I'd be, I'd be, I wouldn't stop pacing all day today if I was Mark Kelly.

01:38:07.000 He's in deep trouble.

01:38:09.000 He's in deep trouble.

01:38:10.000 Yeah, this is really good news.

01:38:10.000 That's a disaster.

01:38:11.000 That's a total flip in a state that Mitch McConnell abandoned.

01:38:16.000 He did nothing.

01:38:17.000 He did nothing.

01:38:18.000 And I don't want to take credit for anything, but the work that our turning point volunteers did entirely.

01:38:23.000 Well, I'm not taking much of a case.

01:38:24.000 Man, take credit, Charlie.

01:38:25.000 It's not over.

01:38:27.000 Mark Kelly can still pull it out.

01:38:29.000 There's still election day.

01:38:30.000 There's still early things that need to be counted.

01:38:33.000 But man, I'm telling you, this is the fact it's even this close.

01:38:37.000 Mitch McConnell came in with them.

01:38:38.000 If he would have come in with a million dollars, Rich, what difference would that have made?

01:38:43.000 Yeah, no, I mean, honestly, it could have been a big difference.

01:38:46.000 I mean, the in and out, in and out, in and out, go to Peter Thial, go to Donald Trump.

01:38:51.000 It's your damn job to get a majority elected in the U.S. Senate.

01:38:54.000 It's not Peter Thiel's job to do it.

01:38:56.000 You know, these people are outrageous.

01:38:57.000 And I got to give Blake a lot of credit.

01:39:00.000 This guy is an extremely positive dude.

01:39:02.000 He knew the pressure that was on him the day before that debate.

01:39:06.000 And, you know, I am not.

01:39:08.000 If anyone ever has ever talked to me and asked me for, you know, political, they know I am not a, I'm not going to hold your hand.

01:39:14.000 I'm not going to pat you on the butt, tell you it's going to be all right, give you a little pat on the back or on top of the head.

01:39:19.000 I'm going to be really blunt with you and tell you if you don't perform tonight, it's over for you.

01:39:23.000 All right.

01:39:23.000 And this man went out there like Donald Trump did the night after the Billy Bush tape and did what he had to do.

01:39:28.000 And Blake Masters deserves a lot of credit for that.

01:39:32.000 Pressure is enormous on these guys.

01:39:34.000 It really is.

01:39:35.000 I got something wild coming in here over text.

01:39:39.000 This is very, very interesting.

01:39:40.000 So I am going to keep anonymous my source here, but this is a Republican candidate who lost last night telling me, telling me that we are dead right and that he was sabotaged.

01:39:55.000 He has to go.

01:39:56.000 Sabotaged by Kevin McCarthy, sabotaged by the NRCC, and was essentially there was a coordinated effort that if he didn't get in line and use the use the consultants, which we haven't even talked about, the scam of the century, which is the consultant class of Republicans, the consultant class, how this is never, none of your dollars ever go to these guys.

01:40:20.000 How the vast majority of this is all about fraudulence in our elections, taking your money and then giving it to the Washington, D.C. swamp class.

01:40:30.000 We should do an entire, I want to do an entire expose on that because these people are criminals and they are frauds.

01:40:36.000 Is it time?

01:40:36.000 And it is a lot of time.

01:40:37.000 Is it time to finally tell this country?

01:40:39.000 Burn it down.

01:40:40.000 This election has me wanting to burn it down.

01:40:44.000 Here in my inbox right now, staring at me, they're still typing, is a candidate who lost a very winnable, competitive race, a Republican, a good person.

01:40:56.000 And they're saying, nope, McCarthy literally torpedoed me and refused to help and won't even return my calls inside of a winnable race because they didn't, because he didn't want to return the calls.

01:41:08.000 Tom Emmer just tweeted.

01:41:10.000 He said the path to success for the GOP majority is reaching across the aisle.

01:41:13.000 I'm leaking the photos, Tom.

01:41:17.000 The photos are coming out now, Tom.

01:41:19.000 You just see OG.

01:41:20.000 I tagged him, by the way.

01:41:21.000 I tagged him right before he tweeted that.

01:41:23.000 Now he's talking about reaching across the aisle.

01:41:25.000 Okay, Tom.

01:41:26.000 He said he wanted to do the only choice we have.

01:41:28.000 The only choice we have.

01:41:30.000 Okay, let's show another path forward.

01:41:32.000 And you know what that path is, Benny?

01:41:34.000 War.

01:41:35.000 It's war.

01:41:35.000 Let's go.

01:41:36.000 Get that bright part, meme.

01:41:38.000 War.

01:41:40.000 You chose this, Tom.

01:41:42.000 You chose this.

01:41:43.000 You chose this.

01:41:44.000 Now, everything that follows, everything that follows after this is on you.

01:41:49.000 Yeah, why don't you change it?

01:41:50.000 Not on me, not on Benny, not on Charlie.

01:41:52.000 This is your decision.

01:41:54.000 And I want you to be very clear about that.

01:41:56.000 This is not my decision.

01:41:57.000 I didn't want to do this.

01:41:58.000 I didn't pick this fight, but I'm going to end it.

01:41:59.000 Go in.

01:42:00.000 Go in, King.

01:42:00.000 Why don't you leak more about Tucker Carlson's kid?

01:42:03.000 Huh?

01:42:04.000 How about you go after Tucker Lee?

01:42:06.000 Go after Tucker's family.

01:42:07.000 You're going to do that some more?

01:42:08.000 Tom Emmer has got to go.

01:42:09.000 He's number one.

01:42:10.000 Okay.

01:42:10.000 Get rid of him.

01:42:10.000 Let's go.

01:42:11.000 Got it, buddy.

01:42:11.000 Done.

01:42:12.000 Cool, dude.

01:42:13.000 Yep.

01:42:14.000 People are loving the energy, guys.

01:42:15.000 You know what else, Charlie?

01:42:16.000 You know what else?

01:42:17.000 I'm sure all the people at Politico, all the people that he leaks to at Politico, will give him cold company.

01:42:21.000 You know who else I love, by the way?

01:42:22.000 And I'm just going to throw it out here.

01:42:23.000 I got to comment on this, Charlie.

01:42:25.000 One of my favorites.

01:42:26.000 You know, I love these youth groups like Yaff, who spent all their time, all their time, not just them, but many others.

01:42:34.000 They raise money, they raise money, they raise money, they raise money, they do nothing about our institutions, they do nothing about indoctrination, they do nothing about fighting the schools, and they churn out little activist generation centers that are paid for by our taxpayer dollars to destroy our republic.

01:42:51.000 Email us your thoughts as always, freedom at charliekirk.com.

01:42:54.000 Jack PeSoba coming in hot.

01:42:55.000 As always, Rich Barris, how about one more segment together, man?

01:42:57.000 We got some more races to go over.

01:42:59.000 People daily big data polls.

01:43:01.000 Sorry, I've been so quiet, guys.

01:43:02.000 I've been crunching numbers and texting a lot of people.

01:43:05.000 Me too.

01:43:05.000 Rich, I'm telling you, man, this path for Blake is not a long shot, man.

01:43:09.000 This is a, it's more than feasible.

01:43:11.000 All the smart political people that, I mean, they don't trust my Twitter because I'm a conservative, but all of a sudden, I'm telling you right now, all the smart political people are going to start freaking out in the next 12 hours on Arizona.

01:43:23.000 Yeah, no, they really are.

01:43:27.000 They're going to be like, well, but Kerry Lake's going to win tonight.

01:43:31.000 Well, that's done.

01:43:32.000 Kerry Lake is giving a teacher.

01:43:33.000 It's done.

01:43:34.000 Dave Homiday is done.

01:43:35.000 We're only at Blake and Fincham here.

01:43:37.000 That's it.

01:43:37.000 I mean, they need to start to sink it in.

01:43:41.000 My window for Blake is Blake can win by $5,000 or $30,000, or he could lose by $5,000 or $10,000.

01:43:46.000 I don't the margin with that last year.

01:43:50.000 Stay right there, stay right there.

01:43:52.000 Everybody email me, freedom at charliekirk.com.

01:44:24.000 Welcome back, everybody.

01:44:25.000 Email us freedom at charliekirk.com.

01:44:29.000 And we got Rich Barris here.

01:44:31.000 Rich, yeah, Benny, go ahead.

01:44:33.000 I got a story.

01:44:34.000 Yeah, let me.

01:44:35.000 Yeah.

01:44:35.000 All right, Benny.

01:44:36.000 Real fast.

01:44:37.000 Okay, just, I promise you, you'll like this.

01:44:39.000 It'll take 30 seconds.

01:44:40.000 Here we go.

01:44:41.000 Reading to you from the insiders account of last night's GOP party, corporate party in Washington, D.C. How was Kevin McCarthy spending the night?

01:44:53.000 House Republican leader Kevin McCarthy was expected to take the stage as early as 10 p.m. to declare victory.

01:44:58.000 But come midnight, the main venue floor was empty and a small group of DC Hill staffers mingled around an open bar.

01:45:05.000 McCarthy finally went out after 2 a.m. saying, we are going to take the house back.

01:45:12.000 Minutes before his staff had gathered the remaining supporters and directed them to grab a sign and to pack it in in the area in front of the stage, there were a few dozen people.

01:45:21.000 That was the energy being delivered last night by our corporate GOP.

01:45:28.000 Good for them.

01:45:28.000 You know what?

01:45:29.000 And before I get into the numbers, good for them.

01:45:31.000 Because let me tell you, I know who you're talking about with that text.

01:45:34.000 We're not going to blow them up, but I know who you're talking about.

01:45:36.000 Let me explain to you what happens when Kevin, when people stand up in their lives and try to do what they think is right, put themselves forward to lead, to be public servants because they feel their country is at risk.

01:45:46.000 They get tarnished by the media.

01:45:47.000 And when their leaders like Kevin McCarthy don't stand up for them, they're finished in the private sector.

01:45:53.000 When you allow them to smear them, you destroy their careers.

01:45:56.000 If they don't win, their lives are radically different than they were before.

01:46:00.000 They go from having a pitch-perfect life, no problem.

01:46:03.000 Not everyone is Donald Trump.

01:46:04.000 It can take that kind of heat and still have the financial stability and the brand to deal with it.

01:46:09.000 If you're just somebody who thought you wanted to try to make a difference, you're ruined.

01:46:13.000 You're ruined.

01:46:14.000 Your reputation is ruined.

01:46:15.000 Your higher ability is extremely diminished.

01:46:19.000 So, you know, I'm not feeling sorry for Kevin McCarthy that he's not going to get the, you know, the gavel is just out of grasp again for him.

01:46:26.000 But here's why I'm bullish on Blake.

01:46:28.000 All right.

01:46:30.000 There's 200 and 400,000 in Maricopa, 275 are the election day drop-offs that will lean that lean.

01:46:36.000 They will heavily favor Blake Masters.

01:46:39.000 And the other 125 are male.

01:46:41.000 Now, you may say, oh, but he had such, he got killed among that male.

01:46:44.000 But he did because those were votes that were banked and Blake was trailing at that point.

01:46:49.000 In our polling, the undecided broke to Blake.

01:46:51.000 So if they mailed their ballot late, Mark Kelly is not going to have a 14-point margin with these people.

01:46:57.000 So it won't, even if Mark Kelly wins them, he's not going to win them by the margin he won them by before.

01:47:02.000 And by the way, it's highly likely he loses them, right, Charlie?

01:47:05.000 Yeah, it's highly likely actually here's the thing: the entire race is going to come down to this Maricopa drop tonight, of which we will be streaming.

01:47:14.000 So just everyone knows, we are going to stream here for a little bit longer, right?

01:47:17.000 And then we're going to take a break and then we're going to come back for an evening stream.

01:47:23.000 And then the big drop will be at 7 p.m. tonight.

01:47:25.000 The big drop, and Rich, you're welcome to join.

01:47:28.000 It's going to be a monster drop, and we're going to know the margins.

01:47:31.000 If Blake is 62 to 66% winning those drops, he's cooking with gas.

01:47:38.000 If Blake is like 68 to 72%, he can afford to lose even other drops in Pima and other places.

01:47:46.000 I'm telling you, must watch tonight.

01:47:48.000 It's going to be must watch.

01:47:49.000 Watch for the 7 p.m. be here.

01:47:51.000 We're going to be even earlier.

01:47:53.000 We're going to probably start around 6 and probably build up to it because there's other races that are build up.

01:47:57.000 But this is the future of the United States Senate, the future of Arizona.

01:48:00.000 And Kerry Lake will be declared governor of Arizona tonight, which will be, yeah, I forget what time zone we're in because it's 7 p.m. Marriott.

01:48:07.000 9 p.m. Eastern.

01:48:08.000 Yeah, that's right.

01:48:09.000 6 p.m.

01:48:10.000 No, that's not right.

01:48:10.000 8 p.m. Eastern, we're going to probably start streaming.

01:48:12.000 No, no, no, no, I'm talking about the drop.

01:48:13.000 But yes, 8 p.m. Eastern.

01:48:14.000 8 p.m. Eastern.

01:48:15.000 Okay, so 8 p.m. Eastern is when the stream starts.

01:48:18.000 9 is when we expect to be.

01:48:19.000 Stay right there, Jack.

01:48:20.000 Email is freedom at charliekirk.com.

01:48:34.000 Welcome back, everybody.

01:48:35.000 Email is freedom at charliekirk.com.

01:48:38.000 Look, the entire United States Senate is coming down to Georgia's going to a runoff.

01:48:42.000 We'll worry about that later.

01:48:43.000 It's going to Nevada and Arizona.

01:48:45.000 And look, I have no, like, let's just say expertise in Nevada at all, Rich.

01:48:52.000 So you're going to have to tell me what's going on there.

01:48:55.000 I will say, say, Arizona, I'm feeling good.

01:48:59.000 Yeah, and in the silver state, it's really going to come down to what, and they don't know that they have 100,000 ballots in Clark.

01:49:06.000 They're saying they, in the last, in the next four days, maybe 100,000 ballots, upward of 100,000 ballots, could trick in.

01:49:15.000 I got to tell you, folks, maybe they don't.

01:49:17.000 Maybe they don't.

01:49:18.000 Laxalt did what a Republican has to do so far in order to win.

01:49:22.000 He's winning Washoe County by almost five points.

01:49:25.000 There's more election day vote there, by the way, to be counted.

01:49:29.000 And he netted out of the last drop in Washoe County.

01:49:33.000 It was 1,400 votes.

01:49:34.000 He netted 1,000.

01:49:36.000 So understand how these election day margins are breaking in Nevada for Republicans.

01:49:43.000 So if what I'm a little bit hesitant to say here is that Masto didn't get a huge, huge margin in Clark County when that 400,000 early vote dropped.

01:49:58.000 She won it by 11 points.

01:50:00.000 And then the election day vote started to trickle in.

01:50:02.000 And she's only carrying Clark right now by about five points, 50.9 to 46.2.

01:50:09.000 You know, I'm rounding here.

01:50:11.000 It should be really 51 flat to 46.2, but it's not enough.

01:50:16.000 100,000 ballots, Charlie, should not be enough to widen Clark back out to nine points.

01:50:22.000 And that's the last, that really is the, I would say, that's the target for Laxalt.

01:50:28.000 Don't want to fall below nine.

01:50:29.000 We also don't know.

01:50:30.000 I am hearing there is still election day vote in Clark.

01:50:34.000 And if there is, then Laxalt and Bulk Lombardo and Laxalt are going to win that.

01:50:39.000 It's very clear because of what we have seen so far.

01:50:42.000 And there's still some rurals out to help Pad.

01:50:44.000 So right now he's up by about 23,000, something ballpark like that.

01:50:49.000 And I don't know how 100,000 mail-in ballots could net Masto 25,000 votes.

01:50:54.000 I just don't.

01:50:56.000 If that happens, it means they're what?

01:50:58.000 Democrats running around and harvesting.

01:51:00.000 That would be the only way in Clark.

01:51:03.000 Culinary.

01:51:04.000 But here's the deal, though.

01:51:05.000 We did speak in our polling.

01:51:07.000 It looks like we could be right on with both races.

01:51:10.000 And if we are, we spoke to a lot of people in the culinary union who were like, listen, I'm not going to tell anybody what the hell with these people.

01:51:16.000 Inflation is two times the national average in this place.

01:51:19.000 Like, I'm getting killed.

01:51:20.000 One Hispanic worker who was a culinary union told me he was like, yeah, no, I'm not voting Democrat this time.

01:51:25.000 He said, I don't, I can't afford to learn their pronouns.

01:51:28.000 He said, that's what he told me.

01:51:29.000 I can't afford to learn their pronouns.

01:51:31.000 I can't pay my bills.

01:51:32.000 You know, I mean, it's that simple.

01:51:34.000 So I'm not sure they're going to get what they think they're going to get.

01:51:36.000 And I think that's why they're in the position they're in right now, gentlemen.

01:51:39.000 They should, you know, that Nevada is hard to win for a Republican.

01:51:44.000 It's very hard to win.

01:51:45.000 And they're in good shape right now, I think, because they did so well with non-white voters.

01:51:50.000 Look at the exit polls.

01:51:52.000 Remember, Charlie, when I put out Nevada, I don't know if you guys remember this, but I got nuked on that.

01:51:57.000 Laxalt is not going to do that well with Hispanics.

01:52:00.000 This is ridiculous.

01:52:01.000 They went for Biden 6530, you know, blah, And, you know, that's not the case.

01:52:07.000 Hispanics went shifted Republican quite a bit, quite a bit.

01:52:12.000 They're separated by like 10 points.

01:52:14.000 So there's going to be some big drops coming, and it's going to be pretty considerable coming soon, especially in Arizona.

01:52:23.000 People are saying, Charlie, I don't understand what's happening here.

01:52:26.000 Why does it take so long?

01:52:27.000 Literally, the ballots drops are not going to be for a couple hours.

01:52:29.000 That's literally where we're at right now.

01:52:31.000 So it's going to be a couple hours, and hopefully we'll have some clarity on that.

01:52:35.000 Rich, what other races are we keeping an eye on?

01:52:39.000 Yeah, I mean, look, is it me or did Oregon turn out in the governor's race to be much closer than anybody thought, right?

01:52:47.000 That polling looked close, but then it looked like to me that the Democrat was starting to consolidate.

01:52:53.000 There is vote that's remaining out.

01:52:55.000 It's very well balanced.

01:52:57.000 So Kotech can't be very comfortable with that lead.

01:53:00.000 But that's about it on the governor's end because everything else is called.

01:53:03.000 In the Senate, we know George is going to run off.

01:53:05.000 Nevada, that leaves Nevada and Arizona.

01:53:07.000 So that's it.

01:53:07.000 So basically, the rest of what I'm looking at is in the House.

01:53:11.000 There are races out in California.

01:53:12.000 Will Ryan Zinke hold on in Montana House District 1?

01:53:16.000 I think he will, but we'll see.

01:53:17.000 There's about 87% of the vote counted over there.

01:53:21.000 And with, you know, almost 90% in, Bruce Poliquin is still trailing Jared Golden by about four points, almost dead on, four points.

01:53:30.000 This independent, and guys, you should take a second to go around the map.

01:53:35.000 Democrats did this in 18.

01:53:36.000 They like helped, you know, indirectly helped independent candidates in house races pull away some votes because there's a lot of data research about independents hurting Republicans more than they hurt Democrats.

01:53:49.000 So there are certain voters that if an independent is on the ballot, then otherwise Republican-leaning voters will actually, some of them will vote for them.

01:53:58.000 We are returned, Jack Pesovic, Penny Johnson, covering down the stream.

01:54:02.000 Yo, yo, brother, what's up?

01:54:04.000 All right.

01:54:04.000 We took it over.

01:54:05.000 So from Charlie.

01:54:06.000 So, Benny, we got to talk about this, man.

01:54:08.000 That when I'm looking at some states like Philadelphia or like Pennsylvania, when I'm looking at states like Michigan, Wisconsin, when I'm looking at states that should have had much, New York, much bigger margins, we still have rich, right?

01:54:22.000 Do we still have rich?

01:54:23.000 Yeah, I'm here.

01:54:24.000 I'm hearing you loud and clear.

01:54:27.000 My thesis last night, Rich, and I'm not sure if you were on the stream with us back then.

01:54:31.000 Honestly, I might be crazy, but I've been saying it for three days now: TikTok, right?

01:54:37.000 These TikTok-driven operations, the influencers coming into the White House, we all made fun of it.

01:54:42.000 We all laughed it.

01:54:44.000 But did they actually turn out people in sizable numbers with which to give them the margins that really made up a huge difference in some of these states?

01:54:54.000 Some of these machine states, by the way.

01:54:57.000 Look, this is, I came on after my stream, which we'll be doing later as well for the job, but and I'll join you guys too.

01:55:05.000 But yeah, definitely without a doubt, Charlie, this is something we have to explore because for whatever reason, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania to me, it jumps right out.

01:55:16.000 Oz did so much better with college educated, but not non-college.

01:55:19.000 That's because of the turnout differential.

01:55:21.000 It's not that the Republican Party lost necessarily some of those voters.

01:55:26.000 They didn't turn out at the rates that Democrats got theirs to turn out.

01:55:31.000 So it made that margin tighter.

01:55:33.000 And without that non-college, heavy vote in Pennsylvania, Republicans cannot win.

01:55:38.000 And Oz didn't get it.

01:55:40.000 And there's this tech, we are in the age of information.

01:55:43.000 It's not the age of technology.

01:55:45.000 It's post-industrial era in toasting industrialized age.

01:55:50.000 It is the age of information and everything is a war.

01:55:54.000 I mean, I hate to tell you, but it's a war for narrative.

01:55:57.000 And the impact that these social media companies and technology can have on public opinion is huge.

01:56:03.000 We know what Google was doing.

01:56:04.000 We've seen the paperwork with the, you know, 2016, because Trump won because of social media.

01:56:12.000 That's when the censorship immediately turned on because we had the ability and the lesson they learned, Jack.

01:56:17.000 Yes, the lesson they learned, Jack, in 2016 was not, oh my God, Donald Trump talked to all these people and heard a voice that we didn't hear.

01:56:24.000 We were, you know, ignoring legitimate grievances.

01:56:26.000 No, the lesson was we lost control of the information highway.

01:56:31.000 We lost control of the narrative.

01:56:33.000 The advent of social media, the advent of independent media, that became a real force.

01:56:39.000 And it wasn't suddenly the Washington Post who was setting the tone.

01:56:43.000 It wasn't suddenly Fox News, even, right?

01:56:45.000 Otherwise, Donald Trump would never have won if Fox News was still the one picking the narrative and driving the narrative.

01:56:51.000 They weren't.

01:56:51.000 They got derailed by people like you and by people like, you know, Charlie and all the independent Breitbart was a huge force, admittedly, right?

01:57:00.000 Huge force.

01:57:01.000 Drudge, a huge force.

01:57:03.000 What did they do?

01:57:03.000 They bought Drudge, right?

01:57:05.000 And then I'm not going to, I'll leave the, I'll leave the rest up to you guys.

01:57:08.000 Have you visited that website lately?

01:57:10.000 They bought Drudge.

01:57:11.000 They took it over and they started the censorship.

01:57:15.000 James O'Keefe, I mean, because of somebody who went to him and leaked to him.

01:57:18.000 All we did was offer an election model that didn't look like Nate Silver's.

01:57:22.000 We got put on Google's ban list.

01:57:24.000 There's nothing misinformation about it.

01:57:27.000 We used to be a partner with Google News.

01:57:29.000 I am the author of the WordPress Google News plugin.

01:57:32.000 Not many people know that.

01:57:33.000 I wrote the PHP in JavaScript code for the WordPress Google News plugin and I gave it to Google News.

01:57:39.000 The point was to have so smaller outlets who didn't have big tech departments could do the, could comply with the tech technical.

01:57:48.000 And there's another word, another, there are two, two tiers, but there are guidelines in order to be a news aggregator on Apple News, Google News, Bing News.

01:57:56.000 And I wrote that for them.

01:57:58.000 And yet they turned on me in a heartbeat.

01:58:01.000 I'm in a heartbeat.

01:58:03.000 I never published anything fake news.

01:58:05.000 I never, people's funded daily back then never had been fact checked.

01:58:09.000 The only thing we did, our sin, was to run a tracking poll that Google didn't like when they turned off their Google consumer surveys on October 27th.

01:58:18.000 I got a call from somebody at Google who said that they forced them to turn it off because they had Trump leading in Florida and other states and that we were the last ones out there.

01:58:29.000 So they had their eye on us.

01:58:31.000 And then if it wasn't for James O'Keefe, I would never have known because I wouldn't have ever gotten those documents, right?

01:58:37.000 Somebody went to Project Veritas and said, here's a bunch of people they're targeting.

01:58:40.000 And boom, there I was.

01:58:42.000 I mean, incredible.

01:58:43.000 I mean, if you think there's no impact from this.

01:58:46.000 I don't know.

01:58:47.000 I don't know what planet you're on.

01:58:49.000 This is enormously powerful.

01:58:51.000 And that was the lesson they learned.

01:58:53.000 But not only that, but they've turned that social media engine into a machine that they've combined with the mail-in balloting, the ballot harvesting.

01:59:03.000 This has become a massive operation.

01:59:05.000 It started in the West.

01:59:07.000 Okay.

01:59:07.000 It started in California.

01:59:09.000 Then it came to Arizona.

01:59:10.000 Arizona, of course, had certain, shall we say, entities here to be able to fight the fight on the ground.

01:59:17.000 But it then moved through the Midwest and it's taken the East by storm.

01:59:22.000 It's absolutely taken the East by storm.

01:59:24.000 They are able to generate ballots directly.

01:59:27.000 This isn't just going and hitting somebody up for an absentee.

01:59:29.000 This is getting your vote in immediately.

01:59:31.000 That's all money in the bank before the election day comes in.

01:59:35.000 And I'm just going to say it, Republicans and conservatives and everybody else, whether you're MAGA, whether you're established, whatever, okay?

01:59:42.000 You need to start either, number one, banning it outright, which we said after 2020 we were going to do, but I don't really think any states actually did that.

01:59:50.000 Florida did.

01:59:51.000 Florida did, but Florida does have early voting, right?

01:59:53.000 Florida has early voting.

01:59:54.000 Florida banned mass mail and ballots and banned, of course, ban it when you can.

01:59:59.000 And election day guy, they have election day deadlines.

02:00:02.000 But if you can't ban it, if you can't, if you're in a state where you can't ban it, you have to fight it with money and you have to fight fire with fire.

02:00:08.000 And it is what it is.

02:00:09.000 The election day deadline is huge in Florida.

02:00:12.000 That's why they can't trickle in 100,000 ballots in Clark County, like Clark County.

02:00:17.000 They can't do that in Florida because if your absentee ballot doesn't arrive by 7 p.m. on election day, it's not going to count, period.

02:00:23.000 So let me ask you a question, Rich.

02:00:25.000 Really, what is the trend here?

02:00:26.000 What's the takeaway, right?

02:00:27.000 I know the establishment stuff.

02:00:28.000 We talked about that, obviously.

02:00:29.000 And that resonates with me, right?

02:00:31.000 So what's the takeaway here?

02:00:36.000 Honestly, I think it's a bad trend.

02:00:38.000 I do.

02:00:39.000 I don't think, you know, like we said, you have certain people who are actually, I think if Kerry Lake was not the candidate that she was, then we would be able to.

02:00:50.000 I mean, look, I think Karen Taylor Robinson would be struggling.

02:00:53.000 Oh, she'd lose without a doubt because of the machine Jack is talking about right now.

02:00:57.000 The establishment, they wouldn't have fought the machine the way Kerry Lake fought it.

02:01:01.000 She's going to overwhelm it because she has people that just love her.

02:01:05.000 In the polling, Charlie, this is why I said take a bow because in the polling, that younger group, that Karen Taylor Robson would never have gotten that younger group.

02:01:15.000 And there simply aren't enough older voters if you're going to get slaughtered among 18 to 44 the way that Republicans did in a lot of parts of the country.

02:01:23.000 I just don't think they know how to combat it.

02:01:27.000 And obviously they don't because, look, Brian Kemp did not win by an impressive margin that was expected that, you know, that he was going to win by.

02:01:35.000 You know, so I actually think the long-term trend is bad.

02:01:38.000 And I think what Jack is talking about needs to, along with leadership, needs to become front and center.

02:01:43.000 Because what did DeSantis do?

02:01:44.000 You censor one of my residents and I will slap you with a fine.

02:01:51.000 And people were laughing at the size of the fine.

02:01:52.000 But Charlie, how many Florida residents have been banned from Twitter, right?

02:01:57.000 Have been or whatever, banned from Facebook, censored in some way.

02:02:01.000 That racks up real quick, real fast.

02:02:03.000 That law was one of the main reasons that we moved.

02:02:07.000 I mean, really, honestly, Florida is the free, freest state.

02:02:11.000 And Arizona, for all of those transplants that moved from California and New York, we see you because we ask what state you were born in.

02:02:18.000 Were you born in Arizona?

02:02:19.000 Did you move there?

02:02:20.000 Lake is winning people who moved from California over two to one, over two to one.

02:02:27.000 That state would be blue already.

02:02:29.000 So Arizona, you are on the cusp of where Florida was a couple of, you know, during the era of Obama.

02:02:35.000 And you have a chance now because you're going to have a serious governor.

02:02:39.000 That's done.

02:02:39.000 I'm telling you.

02:02:40.000 You have a chance now to make sure that you button things up because it's not irreversible.

02:02:45.000 But the rest of the country is in dire straits because, you know, Doug Mastriano has lost.

02:02:51.000 That will be a you-know-what show.

02:02:53.000 It has always been a you-know-what show in Philadelphia and Allegheny.

02:02:57.000 Now it's going to, they're going to try to just make this permanent.

02:02:59.000 That's what I think last night was.

02:03:01.000 Can we make parts of what we did in 2020 permanent?

02:03:03.000 Because we got away with it.

02:03:05.000 And I think that the message they're going to take from last night is that yes.

02:03:09.000 And that's why you're going to see them so angry that Hamadai is going to be attorney general.

02:03:14.000 Because if Kerry Lake was just the governor, it wouldn't matter, guys, because who the hell is she?

02:03:19.000 Who's she going to turn to and say, do this, make sure this is carried out, make sure the law is followed?

02:03:24.000 Nobody.

02:03:25.000 You know, that's why the whole ticket really was that important.

02:03:28.000 Because, you know, if Katie Hobbs is or Adrian Fontes now is the Secretary of State, you think he's going to do a damn thing to try to clean up what's going on?

02:03:37.000 He's not.

02:03:38.000 So she's going to need Abe Homeday to have the power of law enforcement behind him to stop criminality.

02:03:45.000 And, you know, you have a chance now.

02:03:47.000 You have a chance.

02:03:48.000 And because of the woman you elected, you know, you have a better chance than not.

02:03:54.000 But, you know, again, in that drop, we're going to be doing that later tonight as well.

02:03:58.000 So keep an eye out.

02:03:59.000 We'll publish the link, but we'll join you guys, but we're also going to put that up so people can follow the results live on YouTube.

02:04:06.000 In closing, any other races, guys, you want to ask Rich about or trends?

02:04:09.000 Iowa 3.

02:04:10.000 Iowa 3.

02:04:11.000 Iowa 3, I forgot to mention.

02:04:13.000 Tell us about it.

02:04:13.000 Yeah, Iowa 3 is like dead.

02:04:17.000 Yep, the Republican has a lead of 2,200, less than 2,200 votes.

02:04:23.000 It's 50.4 to 49.7, and I'm rounding, you know, sometimes.

02:04:27.000 So Zach Nunn is ahead with just about all the vote in, but it's not all.

02:04:33.000 They're saying greater than 99, but in Iowa, we can have ballots trickle in.

02:04:37.000 That was the race.

02:04:38.000 And this is another thing that just simply doesn't make sense.

02:04:41.000 That was the race that everybody was using.

02:04:44.000 Even Nate Slymer was using Iowa 3 as the lynchpin race, like the pivot race.

02:04:49.000 If Zach Nunn is winning or wins, then it's a massive night for Republicans.

02:04:54.000 He looks like he's going to hold on.

02:04:56.000 And by the way, if he does hold on, Republicans have every delegation in Iowa.

02:05:02.000 They have the entire delegation.

02:05:04.000 So, you know, Iowa's firmly Republican and they need every seat in Iowa.

02:05:09.000 Iowa's a Trump plus 10 state.

02:05:11.000 Trump plus 10, man.

02:05:13.000 Trump plus 10.

02:05:14.000 Rich, I was going to, the reason that I'm asking about these mechanism issues about ballot harvesting and mail-in ballots is because we had an interesting dynamic last night, which you would think would have been the opposite because 73% upset where the country is.

02:05:32.000 And yet we also saw a night where in state after state after state, incumbents were reelected, incumbent governors.

02:05:40.000 And particularly, by the way, a lot of governors in some states like Wisconsin, like Michigan, and like Ohio that supported very strong lockdown policies.

02:05:52.000 And I know there were a lot of people thinking that lockdown policies were going to be, and by the way, in Pennsylvania, you can argue that was part of it too, because that was a strong lockdown state.

02:06:00.000 But then, of course, Hokul as well in New York.

02:06:02.000 It didn't seem to be this huge pivot issue that everybody thought it was going to be because it's going out.

02:06:08.000 Why do you think it was then that incumbents did so well last night?

02:06:12.000 Well, you know, that's why I think these institutional mechanisms that you and I are talking about, I think they're so important, Jack, because if they are out there, and I know they are, you know, they are, if somebody designed this kind of like, you know, machine, then it's going to benefit the status quo and it's going to help incumbents.

02:06:31.000 It's going to, you know, it's being built to keep those people in power.

02:06:35.000 So it makes sense that, you know, you're not going to touch Ron Johnson, or maybe you can get close, but you're not going to unseat the governor.

02:06:42.000 So there's going to be a split ticket there.

02:06:44.000 It kind of makes sense.

02:06:46.000 And as far as the COVID stuff, this is where cowardice really runs you awry.

02:06:50.000 If everybody acted like Ron DeSantis, if everyone, and Ron was, look, Ron was a shutdown man himself.

02:06:57.000 I live there.

02:06:57.000 Don't tell me.

02:06:58.000 Ron was like wearing a mask and telling everybody to get the vaccine as soon as it came out.

02:07:01.000 So, you know, give me, don't, you know, people, these DeSantis stumpers, I love them too, but let's not overblow this.

02:07:07.000 All right.

02:07:08.000 He only started going after Fauci when it became ridiculous and too much.

02:07:13.000 But I will say that basically, in a nutshell, not everyone was unified on this.

02:07:18.000 And if not everyone was unified, you really weren't able to bring that message to the voters.

02:07:22.000 If the leadership of the party at one point was saying, yes, we have to lock down and yes, we have to get the vax and yes, we have to close our schools.

02:07:30.000 It's so hard to take that argument.

02:07:33.000 It didn't become the drum.

02:07:35.000 That's right.

02:07:36.000 How can you do it?

02:07:37.000 How can you do it when people are like, wait a minute?

02:07:40.000 I know a bunch of Republicans I heard say the same damn thing.

02:07:43.000 So don't blame Gretchen Whitmer.

02:07:45.000 I mean, these aren't politicos.

02:07:47.000 They're everyday people.

02:07:48.000 They're not like us.

02:07:49.000 They're not humanists the way we're.

02:07:51.000 Yep.

02:07:53.000 Any other closing thoughts, guys, before we go resume the stream later today?

02:07:56.000 And everybody on the stream, email us freedom at charliekirk.com and please consider subscribing to the Charlie Kirk Show podcast by opening up your podcast app.

02:08:04.000 And if you want to support our show, it's charliekirk.com/slash support.

02:08:09.000 If you want to actually directly support us, we'll go around the horn.

02:08:12.000 Jack, what's on your mind?

02:08:14.000 I'm thinking about mechanisms.

02:08:16.000 I'm thinking about Republican.

02:08:17.000 Look, Charlie, I'm going to say it again.

02:08:19.000 I've said this before.

02:08:21.000 At the end of the day, Democrats understand something that Republicans don't.

02:08:25.000 And Republicans need to understand this.

02:08:27.000 It is not the quality of your votes that matters.

02:08:29.000 It is the quantity of your votes that matters in the American election system.

02:08:35.000 Quantity, quantity, quantity.

02:08:37.000 And if you can build a machine, if you can build a machine that translates all that support, whether it's Facebook or Twitter, whatever, into direct votes, then you need to do that.

02:08:49.000 And you need to spend the money to do so.

02:08:51.000 Benny.

02:08:53.000 I got here on my screen.

02:08:56.000 I got here on my screen just the wildest thing you will see.

02:09:00.000 Probably, probably can't catch it here, but this is from the New York Times.

02:09:04.000 And it is, there we go.

02:09:05.000 Okay.

02:09:06.000 That's Florida.

02:09:07.000 Yeah, the state of Florida.

02:09:08.000 That's not really true.

02:09:10.000 What do you say?

02:09:10.000 All right, it's just the state of Florida.

02:09:11.000 Every single county.

02:09:14.000 Swinging the hardest.

02:09:15.000 So they have these little arrows that show you the margin, the shift in the margin from the last election to this election.

02:09:20.000 And it is the biggest arrows that they can make.

02:09:22.000 It is the largest arrows in every county.

02:09:25.000 Not a single blue arrow in the entire state.

02:09:28.000 If you're looking for a plan, this is a plan.

02:09:31.000 And this isn't, everyone's going to try and make this.

02:09:33.000 And they did this on the morning show on our show.

02:09:35.000 And a big shout out to the Benny Show audience.

02:09:37.000 I want to thank all of you.

02:09:39.000 We tell you to watch this.

02:09:40.000 We're very, very proud of what we're building there.

02:09:42.000 And if you want to support what we're doing, please subscribe to the Benny Show.

02:09:46.000 But everyone's like, yo, okay, so you're saying, are you simping for DeSantis?

02:09:50.000 Are you simping for Trump?

02:09:53.000 That is a battle for another day.

02:09:57.000 Now is strategy time.

02:09:59.000 Now is about strategy.

02:10:00.000 What strategy wins and what strategy loses.

02:10:04.000 It is important to call balls and strikes.

02:10:06.000 It is important to make sure you are swinging the axe and that when you are banging the shields together, that you are pointing your armies in the right direction, okay?

02:10:16.000 Otherwise, you'll get slaughtered.

02:10:18.000 And so let's look at the victories.

02:10:20.000 There was a red wave.

02:10:21.000 And this is what's on my mind, Charlie.

02:10:22.000 This is what's on my mind.

02:10:24.000 Yes, we didn't lie to you.

02:10:26.000 There was a red wave last night.

02:10:28.000 It was a red tsunami in Florida.

02:10:31.000 This is it.

02:10:31.000 I have it for you here.

02:10:32.000 I'm sorry you can't see it on the back.

02:10:35.000 I don't think it's North Carolina.

02:10:36.000 And Rich is here to tell you where there were red tsunamis.

02:10:41.000 You have to look state by state.

02:10:42.000 There were red tsunamis.

02:10:44.000 And so then let's study what's going on in those states and let's use that as the battle plan.

02:10:47.000 Arizona, when it's all said and done, we're going to say some real movement in Arizona.

02:10:51.000 I'm telling you, those arrows in it, once all the ballots are counted, right around New Year's, we'll know all the ballots and we'll get that all figured out.

02:10:59.000 Everybody, you can email us, freedom at charliekirk.com.

02:11:02.000 People are asking about Joe Kent.

02:11:03.000 Do you feel good about Joe Kent, right, Rich?

02:11:05.000 I'm getting blown up about Joe Kent.

02:11:07.000 Yeah, I do.

02:11:07.000 And when we start the stream a little bit later, which it'll go out on social media, Joe Kent's one of the ones we're going to go in in great detail and show people what's left county by county and why Joe Kent with a third of the vote out is going to overtake Perez.

02:11:22.000 So I do feel good about Joe Kent.

02:11:24.000 Yes.

02:11:25.000 That's great.

02:11:26.000 Everyone can email me directly, freedom at charliekirk.com.

02:11:28.000 Take out your phone, everybody, and type in Charlie Kirk Show to your podcast provider.

02:11:33.000 It's very simple.

02:11:33.000 Every single phone has a podcast app.

02:11:36.000 We are the second largest conservative podcast right now.

02:11:39.000 So thank you guys for helping us get that.

02:11:40.000 That's the power of the live stream when you have millions and millions of concurrence.

02:11:44.000 And so we really appreciate that.

02:11:46.000 Please hit the bell on YouTube, subscribe.

02:11:47.000 And if you want to support us, go to charliekirk.com slash support.

02:11:50.000 But I would be forgetting something if I did not plug.

02:11:53.000 Guys, let's get cut 55.

02:11:54.000 AmericaFest, AMFest.com, December 17, 18, 19, and 20 in Phoenix, Arizona.

02:12:02.000 Tucker Carlson, Candace Owens, Greg Gutfeld, Benny Johnson, Jack Pasobic, Congresswoman-elect Ana Paulina, Governor-elect Carrie Lake, which we'll be able to officially say tonight.

02:12:13.000 Uh-oh.

02:12:13.000 And more.

02:12:15.000 Let's play the tape of AmericaFest, AMFest.com.

02:12:30.000 Pro-American Patriots from Sea to Shining Sea are coming together to reclaim our foundational truths of life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness.

02:12:37.000 Charlie Kirk here.

02:12:38.000 2022 is the year we take back America.

02:12:41.000 So let's make history again.

02:12:43.000 The movement starts here at Turning Point USA in Phoenix, Arizona.

02:12:46.000 Join us December 17th to the 20th at America Fest.

02:12:50.000 Purchase your tickets right now for the biggest conservative party in America at AMFest.com.

02:12:56.000 That is amfest.com, amfest.com.

02:12:59.000 See you later.

02:13:00.000 Now we'll be doing it.

02:13:03.000 mfest.com amfest.com get your tickets special promo code it's going to be the biggest event of the year can't wait to see you all there amfest.com americafest a turning point usa event also if you are a high school student or a college student out there start a turning point USA chapter at tpusa.com.

02:13:21.000 That is tpusa.com.

02:13:23.000 Again, thank you guys for subscribing to the Charlie Kirk Show.

02:13:25.000 In just a couple hours, we're going to be right here, fully staffed.

02:13:28.000 We're going to go get some In-N Out, right?

02:13:29.000 In-N-Out burger, right?

02:13:30.000 We're going to have In-N-NOT.

02:13:31.000 In N-N Out, let's do it.

02:13:32.000 We're going to have In-N-Out.

02:13:33.000 We're going to have In-N-Out cascading around our desk, and we are going to be here tonight.

02:13:37.000 Fountains of information.

02:13:38.000 Believe it or not, you're going to have more clarity about the future of the U.S. Senate and the United States House of Representatives tonight than last night on this stream.

02:13:47.000 That's what's happening.

02:13:48.000 Rich, I hope you could join us, man.

02:13:49.000 It's going to be epic.

02:13:50.000 We can blend streams if you want.

02:13:51.000 If we could cross-post or something, we'll promote you.

02:13:55.000 Talk to Andrew.

02:13:55.000 We'll see what we can do, okay?

02:13:56.000 We'll see what we can do.

02:13:57.000 Yeah, the splitter just came in FedEx.

02:13:59.000 So locals, chill out, and we'll be able to, and let's blend it together.

02:14:03.000 All right.

02:14:03.000 Well, good luck with that because I have no idea what that means.

02:14:06.000 So email me, freedom at charliekirk.com.

02:14:09.000 Benny, you're in town.

02:14:09.000 You're not leaving until later, right?

02:14:11.000 Yeah, I'm in town.

02:14:11.000 Jack, I'm in.

02:14:12.000 We'll have Austin and Tyler.

02:14:13.000 We'll pull up an extra mic.

02:14:14.000 It's going to be amazing.

02:14:15.000 Thank you guys for subscribing to my podcast.

02:14:17.000 Thank you guys for supporting Turning Point USA.

02:14:19.000 Get your tickets to America Fest.

02:14:21.000 We're going to recharge our batteries for a couple hours and then we'll see you for the most consequential evening for the Republic since 2020.

02:14:27.000 Tonight's the night.

02:14:28.000 We're going to know a lot of things.

02:14:29.000 Arizona, Blake Masters, we're going to know a lot of stuff.

02:14:32.000 See you guys then.

02:14:33.000 Email me, freedom at charliekirk.com.

02:14:35.000 God bless you.

The Charlie Kirk Show - November 10, 2022

The Aftermath with Rich Baris, Benny Johnson, and Jack Posobiec

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