The Charlie Kirk Show - The Best Friday of the Campaign

00:00:00.000 Hey everybody, thanks for tuning into the Charlie Kirk Show.

00:00:01.000 Mark Halperin, who has been the number one reporter and accurately predicting what's happening in this election more than anybody else, he has like five or six scoops.

00:00:10.000 He got Biden dropping out right, he got Kamala being the nominee right, he's gotten polling data right, he joins the program.

00:00:14.000 You're gonna love this conversation.

00:00:16.000 And then I recap my visit to UW-Madison and this huge breaking news hour.

00:00:20.000 Trump gets endorsed by the Fraternal Order of Police, RFK off the ballot in Michigan and potentially North Carolina, then of course the big news, Trump's sentencing is kicked to November.

00:00:31.000 Huge news.

00:00:33.000 Email me, as always, freedom at charliekirk.com.

00:00:36.000 Subscribe to our podcast.

00:00:37.000 Open up your podcast application and type in Charlie Kirk Show.

00:00:40.000 Get involved with Turning Point USA at tpusa.com.

00:00:43.000 That is tpusa.com.

00:00:46.000 As always, you can become a member, members.charliekirk.com.

00:00:48.000 When you become a member, you can ask me questions directly.

00:00:51.000 So do that today, members.charliekirk.com.

00:00:53.000 Buckle up, everybody.

00:00:54.000 Here we go.

00:00:55.000 Charlie, what you've done is incredible here.

00:00:56.000 Maybe Charlie Kirk is on the college campus.

00:00:58.000 I want you to know we are lucky to have Charlie Kirk.

00:01:02.000 Charlie Kirk's running the White House, folks.

00:01:05.000 I want to thank Charlie.

00:01:06.000 He's an incredible guy.

00:01:07.000 His spirit, his love of this country.

00:01:09.000 He's done an amazing job building one of the most powerful youth organizations ever created, Turning Point USA.

00:01:16.000 We will not embrace the ideas that have destroyed countries, destroyed lives, and we are gonna fight for freedom on campuses across the country.

00:01:24.000 That's why we are here.

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00:01:53.000 There is some breaking news regarding RFK in North Carolina and Michigan.

00:01:58.000 We're trying to get all the details here, but it appears at least in Michigan that RFK will be taken off the ballot.

00:02:05.000 We're going to confirm that.

00:02:06.000 In North Carolina, early ballots have been paused because of a pending lawsuit by RFK.

00:02:11.000 Now, what is the significance of this?

00:02:13.000 The significance of this Is a point here, 10,000 votes here, 30,000 votes here, can make or break the entire difference of this election.

00:02:22.000 And having RFK on the ballot, people don't follow the news as much, like, oh I recognize him, he's a Kennedy, sure.

00:02:29.000 We want to try and make sure that RFK's endorsement of Donald Trump ends up materializing in the best possible way on the ballot.

00:02:38.000 Here's some of the news coverage in North Carolina, play cut 126.

00:02:42.000 So I got my hands on a sample ballot here and you can see that RFK Jr.' 's name is the second in line and that is the issue in this state.

00:02:49.000 These were supposed to go out to the post office around midnight last night.

00:02:54.000 That did not happen.

00:02:55.000 They instead were moved into a vault for safe keeping and we actually have video of the rail ballots that we will show you there now.

00:03:02.000 This is here in Charlotte.

00:03:04.000 The State Board of Elections basically told all counties in this state To not mail these out after a judge ordered a 24-hour stay to allow RFK Jr.

00:03:12.000 to appeal her decision to have his name stay on the ballot.

00:03:15.000 So why is it staying on the ballot?

00:03:17.000 The argument here, Dana, is that reprinting thousands and thousands of ballots would eat into early voting time.

00:03:24.000 Let's continue 127 coverage of the North Carolina lawsuit RFK pausing ballots to go out to get his name off the ballot.

00:03:32.000 The problem is I can't just remove his name and then start printing.

00:03:35.000 I still have to look at ballot layout, make sure it's all lining up, and then I have to get it approved by the state, and then I have to start testing it.

00:03:44.000 That would be another two weeks?

00:03:46.000 Our hope would be we won't have to do two weeks, but again, it still takes time.

00:03:50.000 It will take five to six days to make all that happen. 0.77

00:03:54.000 Okay, that is one of the most pathetic pieces of tape I've ever seen on The Charlie Kirk Show. 0.93

00:03:58.000 Figure it out. 0.96

00:03:59.000 You're administering a presidential election of the wealthiest, strongest, greatest country in the history of the world.

00:04:04.000 I don't care if you might have to work a Saturday or work a Sunday.

00:04:07.000 Figure.

00:04:08.000 Out.

00:04:08.000 It.

00:04:09.000 Oh, well, we might have to work really hard and I have to get things approved. 0.96

00:04:12.000 That is a perfect example, an accurate depiction of how bureaucracy, red tape, stupid rules have just suffocated our ability To be able to do something very simple.

00:04:24.000 You notice she doesn't say that on the merits. 0.89

00:04:27.000 Oh, well, it's just very difficult because my staff might have to work somewhat hard.

00:04:33.000 So, in Michigan, the appeals court has ordered RFK is off the ballot in Michigan.

00:04:38.000 Now, it could be appealed to the state Supreme Court, but state officials were saying today was the deadline to finalize.

00:04:45.000 So, they have to flip-flop if they wanted to appeal it.

00:04:47.000 So, this is a live ball.

00:04:48.000 None of this has been decided.

00:04:50.000 Now, remember, Democrats, they worked so hard to keep RFK off the ballot, Democrats, the party democracy, they wanted RFK off the ballot, RFK off the ballot, RFK off the ballot, RFK off the ballot, because at the time, RFK was hurting Joe Biden.

00:05:07.000 Now, Democrats are working in overdrive to keep RFK on the ballot, on the ballot, on the ballot, on the ballot.

00:05:14.000 One of the reasons why RFK endorsed Donald Trump, of course they have similar world views, they have different politics but similar values and similar instincts and their why is the same, is one of the reasons why RFK got behind Donald Trump so enthusiastically is because it was not the Republican Party that was trying to keep him off the ballot.

00:05:35.000 It was not the Republican Party that was trying to sue him and send private investigators.

00:05:39.000 RFK experienced The wrath of the modern Democrat Party.

00:05:45.000 And that bothered him to his core.

00:05:47.000 And his endorsement of Trump is to send a message to the Democrat Party.

00:05:55.000 To send a message.

00:05:57.000 We as Republicans actually respect the rule of law.

00:06:01.000 All the Democrats care about is power, Constitution, who cares?

00:06:06.000 CNN is reporting about how close this election is.

00:06:09.000 So this ballot access is incredibly important.

00:06:12.000 The ballot access of, will RFK be on the ballot?

00:06:15.000 Will he be on the ballot in Michigan?

00:06:17.000 Will he be on the ballot in North Carolina?

00:06:18.000 These could end up being consequential Behind the scenes, not always covered details as to whether or not Donald Trump ends up winning the presidency.

00:06:29.000 Remember, in 2020, the election was decided by 42,000 ballots.

00:06:34.000 42,000 ballots.

00:06:35.000 We're talking about razor-thin margins.

00:06:40.000 We're talking about margins on the margins.

00:06:43.000 Play cut 128, please.

00:06:45.000 This race is close.

00:06:47.000 Yes.

00:06:48.000 Historically close.

00:06:49.000 Historically close.

00:06:51.000 You know, I just want to sort of...

00:06:53.000 Zone out a little bit.

00:06:54.000 Go to 35,000 feet and just point out how close this race has been. 0.61

00:06:59.000 Consistently, consistently close.

00:07:01.000 All right, campaigns where any candidate led by at least five points in the polls.

00:07:06.000 Look, most of the time there's at least some stretch where one of the candidates is ahead by at least five points.

00:07:10.000 At least three weeks in which one candidate led by at least five points.

00:07:14.000 That happened in every single campaign from 1964 to 2020.

00:07:19.000 How many days have we had this campaign where one candidate was ahead by at least five points nationally?

00:07:24.000 Look at this.

00:07:25.000 Zero.

00:07:26.000 Zero days!

00:07:29.000 Alright, so let's just say the polls match up perfectly to what the results end up being.

00:07:35.000 Kamala Harris would win this election with 292 electoral votes to Donald Trump's 246.

00:07:39.000 But let's just say we move the current polls and let's say the result differs by them by a single percentage point and Donald Trump is the beneficiary of it.

00:07:50.000 Look at this.

00:07:50.000 If Trump outperforms his current polls by just a single point, you take that Kamala Harris win and look at this.

00:07:56.000 Donald Trump gets 287 electoral votes because the bottom line is Pennsylvania would flip up here and you would also get this flip out in Nevada over here.

00:08:06.000 And that, my friends, is what we're talking about.

00:08:08.000 We are talking about the closest campaign in a generation where a single point could make all the difference in the world.

00:08:15.000 That's exactly what we've been saying at Turning Point Action for quite some time.

00:08:18.000 By the way, massive breaking news.

00:08:20.000 Major breaking news.

00:08:22.000 This week, the RFK News all this.

00:08:23.000 Listen carefully.

00:08:24.000 Drop what you're doing.

00:08:25.000 Judge Mershawn has officially delayed Donald Trump's criminal sentencing in New York until mid-November after the election.

00:08:35.000 The Democrat Party's plan to rig this race with lawfare just failed.

00:08:40.000 This is huge news, everybody.

00:08:43.000 I'm reading all these left-wing blogs, and they were counting on Donald Trump is getting sentenced soon, Donald Trump is getting sentenced soon, Donald Trump is getting sentenced soon, Donald Trump is getting sentenced soon, and no, he's not.

00:08:56.000 Potentially, they could have sentenced Donald Trump to jail effective 2025.

00:09:02.000 They could have put him out to Rikers.

00:09:05.000 Next in a week and a half, Donald Trump will not have to face a sentencing verdict until after voters have selected.

00:09:15.000 Donald Trump won a delay to his sentencing decision in New York, hush money case, until after the November 5th election.

00:09:24.000 Trump will be sentenced on November 26th.

00:09:26.000 Who cares?

00:09:27.000 Instead of September 18th as originally planned.

00:09:29.000 Judge Juan Marchand ruled in Manhattan on Friday granting Trump's request of a delay.

00:09:34.000 Though, much shorter term, probation is possible.

00:09:38.000 This is huge.

00:09:39.000 Because potentially, by the way, every network is exploding right now.

00:09:42.000 I have all these networks up.

00:09:44.000 They're exploding with this.

00:09:46.000 This is the false surprise that the Democrats thought was going to come in their favor.

00:09:51.000 So let's just be clear.

00:09:52.000 This is a bad day to be a Democrat.

00:09:54.000 RFK is getting taken off the ballot.

00:09:56.000 Polly Market has... Polly Market slash Nate Silver says Donald Trump has a 60 plus percent chance of winning.

00:10:02.000 And now Donald Trump will not be sentenced to anything until after the election.

00:10:08.000 The law fair has officially imploded.

00:10:10.000 There's no more trials.

00:10:12.000 There are no more procedures.

00:10:15.000 No more sentencing.

00:10:16.000 It is now a clear shot to Election Day.

00:10:20.000 Everything that they have tried to throw at him has failed.

00:10:24.000 Indictments, impeachments, civil cases, fraud.

00:10:28.000 Our movement is growing.

00:10:29.000 It's ascendant.

00:10:30.000 That momentum, do you feel that?

00:10:32.000 And I'm going to tell you all about my visit at UW-Madison yesterday because it was remarkable what we saw in the media.

00:10:37.000 They refused to cover it.

00:10:38.000 They lied about it because they saw a huge turnout at UW-Madison.

00:10:44.000 The original Democrat White Board had Trump in prison by now.

00:10:48.000 Instead, Donald Trump is the favorite to win the presidency.

00:10:52.000 Donald Trump is the favorite to become president again.

00:10:56.000 That means we have to put our foot to the pedal.

00:10:59.000 Accelerate.

00:11:00.000 What we should do?

00:11:01.000 We should go wear our MAGA hats this weekend and go find new voters.

00:11:04.000 It's not too late to register new voters.

00:11:06.000 You can do that.

00:11:07.000 You should do that.

00:11:08.000 Do the work.

00:11:10.000 Go into restaurants.

00:11:11.000 Go into dry cleaners.

00:11:12.000 Find the new voters.

00:11:14.000 The Democrats just lost a big one today and sentencing kicked till after the election.

00:11:20.000 What a victory for the United States of America and our movement.

00:11:27.000 As students begin heading back to school, I want to tell you about a great learning opportunity.

00:11:31.000 Look, I know you're part of the most informed audience in radio after all.

00:11:34.000 You listen to my radio show.

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00:11:43.000 You can learn more from Hillsdale by listening to one of its excellent podcasts while taking a walk or driving to work.

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00:12:17.000 Charlie F-O-R Hillsdale dot com.

00:12:21.000 It's been quite a breaking morning.

00:12:23.000 RFK ballot news and Donald Trump's trial kicked to after the election.

00:12:30.000 If you read the Democrat blogs like I do, many Democrat operatives were counting, counting, counting on Trump being sentenced, the polling will change, maybe he'll be hauled off to prison, maybe there's a future prison sentence.

00:12:44.000 None of that's happening.

00:12:45.000 None of that is happening.

00:12:47.000 I want to tell you about my visit yesterday.

00:12:49.000 I have visited the University of Wisconsin-Madison many times over the last 12 years.

00:12:53.000 In fact, one of my first visits ever to a college campus was at the University of Wisconsin-Madison.

00:12:59.000 Now, if you know anything about UW-Madison, you know that it is notoriously liberal.

00:13:04.000 Madison is, without a doubt, one of the most liberal cities in America and the most liberal major city in Wisconsin.

00:13:14.000 It is the state capitol.

00:13:15.000 It is the home of so many Democrat organizing groups.

00:13:18.000 It is the home, of course, of University of Wisconsin-Madison.

00:13:22.000 Donald Trump, in 2020, did not do well in Madison, Wisconsin, in 2020.

00:13:28.000 Did not do well.

00:13:30.000 It is Dane County, Wisconsin.

00:13:32.000 It is often forgotten by Republicans.

00:13:36.000 They just don't look very closely at it.

00:13:39.000 In Dane County in 2020, Joe Biden received 260,000 ballots and Donald Trump, 78,000.

00:13:48.000 Said differently, in Dane County, Democrats won 75% of the vote.

00:13:54.000 This is as blue as it gets.

00:13:56.000 In fact, Dane County voted more Democrat than Milwaukee Then Milwaukee, Dane County is more Democrat than downtown Milwaukee.

00:14:09.000 And despite all of that, Donald Trump still fell 21,000 votes short.

00:14:15.000 So I'm used to when I go to these college campuses from years ago, you know, setting up a card table, 10 people come by, 20 people come by.

00:14:22.000 We were flooded with people.

00:14:24.000 By the moment we showed up, look at this at University of Wisconsin-Madison.

00:14:27.000 In fact, we were giving out MAGA hats.

00:14:29.000 We ran out of 400 MAGA hats within minutes.

00:14:33.000 We registered over 150 new voters.

00:14:37.000 New voters!

00:14:38.000 150 new voters in just a couple of hours.

00:14:42.000 There was a rainstorm and no one moved.

00:14:45.000 Now, the media said, oh, there's only a couple dozen people.

00:14:48.000 Can you go back to that original picture?

00:14:49.000 Does that look like a couple dozen people for you?

00:14:52.000 And those right there, that is a, that is a Massive ocean of people.

00:14:59.000 Look at that.

00:15:00.000 All wanting to just hear and see at University of Wisconsin-Madison.

00:15:05.000 Now, I thought this was supposed to be the most liberal place in Wisconsin.

00:15:08.000 And the whole idea is, can we lose by less?

00:15:11.000 Can we lose by less in Dane County?

00:15:15.000 There's Brett Galashwoski.

00:15:16.000 Look at all those new voter registration forms.

00:15:18.000 Just pause on there.

00:15:18.000 Look at that.

00:15:20.000 Those are all new forms.

00:15:22.000 of new voters.

00:15:24.000 Who else is doing this work except Turning Point Action?

00:15:25.000 Scott Pressler's doing great work with Pennsylvania.

00:15:28.000 But going into left-wing campus territory and finding people that agree with us to lose by less is pioneer, courageous, brave work that Turning Point Action deserves such credit for.

00:15:40.000 You guys can keep going.

00:15:41.000 And we're now doing this at campuses all across the country.

00:15:44.000 In Arizona, in Georgia, in Pennsylvania.

00:15:46.000 I have 21 campus stops remaining.

00:15:49.000 And this is the type of clipboard and tennis shoes type of work.

00:15:54.000 Now, traditional Republican operatives say, oh, Charlie, you shouldn't go to campuses.

00:15:57.000 Waste of time.

00:15:58.000 We just lose there.

00:15:58.000 No!

00:16:00.000 There's thousands of voters there that otherwise would not be registered to vote.

00:16:03.000 We registered 150 new voters that were not being engaged by the Republican Party.

00:16:09.000 And I think the RNC is doing a great job, but they got their hands full.

00:16:11.000 These are 150 new voters.

00:16:14.000 This is the type of grassroots hustle that matters.

00:16:16.000 And I left that event in Madison and I turned to my team and I said, that was one of the best events we've ever done.

00:16:22.000 The warmth, the encouragement, the positivity, the resolute support of President Donald Trump on a college campus.

00:16:29.000 And now there are hundreds of kids wearing MAGA hats on the campus of University of Wisconsin-Madison.

00:16:34.000 And these are the low propensity Trump voters.

00:16:39.000 And we're going to chase every single one of those ballots.

00:16:42.000 And look at that sea of Madison Patriots in the belly of the beast.

00:16:48.000 Democrats are very nervous when they see these videos because they think they're, oh, well, we got to get 75% in Dane County.

00:16:54.000 You guys are not getting 75% in Dane County if we have anything to say about it.

00:16:58.000 These are Trump supporting people who are registering to vote.

00:17:02.000 These are people that share the worldview.

00:17:05.000 And they're registering right there.

00:17:07.000 This event is a magnet.

00:17:08.000 We bring them in.

00:17:09.000 They're not registered.

00:17:10.000 We registered the entire hockey team.

00:17:12.000 We registered all these incredible patriots.

00:17:14.000 By the way, men, women, black, white, Hispanic, Asian.

00:17:18.000 And the Democrats there, they didn't know what to do with it.

00:17:20.000 They were floored.

00:17:21.000 We took them by surprise.

00:17:23.000 Because we went, we set up shop, we didn't care the names they called us.

00:17:28.000 Thousands of people reached, 150 new Trump voters, and probably thousands of cumulative votes if you count the encouragement, the energy, the passion.

00:17:36.000 What we did in the bluest county in Wisconsin.

00:17:42.000 Hey everybody, Charlie Kirk here.

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00:18:44.000 Joining us now is Mark Halperin, who is the editor-in-chief and host of the new company Two Way, which I love watching.

00:18:50.000 A digital platform that brings together creators and influential people with their superfans for extended, sophisticated conversations like none other on interactive video.

00:18:59.000 And it's been going very viral lately on Two Way.

00:19:01.000 Mark, welcome back to the program.

00:19:03.000 Good to be back.

00:19:03.000 I'm overdressed and I can explain why if you'd like.

00:19:06.000 Yes, I think you were at the Trump press conference.

00:19:10.000 Is that correct?

00:19:11.000 Yeah, well, first of all, it wasn't a press conference.

00:19:13.000 They advertised it as such, but it didn't take a single question.

00:19:16.000 I went in the misguided hope that he would, and my general rule is when I go to Trump Tower, I do not wear a Charlie Kirkian t-shirt, but I put on a tie and jacket.

00:19:24.000 Well, very good.

00:19:26.000 I'm dressed like a grown-up.

00:19:26.000 That's right.

00:19:28.000 Yeah, he would not call on you.

00:19:31.000 So, Mark, this is some breaking news.

00:19:34.000 Post that speech that President Trump gave, that presser, was this incredible news that all of a sudden there's no sentencing.

00:19:42.000 From our perspective, and just reading a lot of left-wing blogs or commentators, for example, like Simon Rosenberg, who's pretty smart, He was banking a lot on sentencing, saying it would change the race, saying that this would really tighten it and favor Kamala Harris.

00:19:57.000 How big of a deal is this?

00:19:59.000 Or is it just another rounding error in a very eventful political season?

00:20:02.000 Well, I mean, look, Charlie, whenever we discuss anything, having a deal is that if the race ends up being super close, everything's a big deal because we don't know what's going to affect these handful of voters and affect turnout.

00:20:12.000 I do think that those, whether you think President Trump is innocent, whether you think he's guilty, whether you don't know, but you simply think these civil and criminal cases are excessive.

00:20:21.000 There's no doubt that there are tens of millions of Americans who look at developments in these cases, and even if they don't like Donald Trump, they think it's outrageous.

00:20:30.000 And he today, and his lawyers, expressed indignity that he had to go through this.

00:20:35.000 In the DC case, the Jack Smith case, where it looks like there will not be

00:20:39.000 any sort of significant action before the election, the sentencing in the New York case,

00:20:44.000 while those things could cut in Donald Trump's favor if they occurred, in other words,

00:20:48.000 the more lawfare there is, the more money he can raise, and the more outrageous supporters are,

00:20:53.000 I think probably on balance, and I admit Trump deems it this way,

00:20:56.000 on balance, it is a big deal to not be either incarcerated,

00:21:00.000 which I thought was a real possibility, and taken off the campaign trail,

00:21:04.000 or sentenced to be incarcerated.

00:21:08.000 They avoid the symbolism of that and he's able to run, dare I say, almost like a normal candidate.

00:21:13.000 Not encumbered by more legal developments in these cases.

00:21:17.000 And not burdened by what has been.

00:21:21.000 Exactly.

00:21:21.000 Ever.

00:21:23.000 So how much were Democrats banking on it being part of their strategy?

00:21:26.000 You would know this much better than I would with Democrats you talk to.

00:21:30.000 A lot, right?

00:21:31.000 I mean, there was a long period where they didn't discuss the legal stuff.

00:21:35.000 They wanted to play it by itself.

00:21:36.000 But as you know, They've started to refer to him pretty regularly as a convicted felon.

00:21:43.000 The vice president sometimes tries to tamp down, lock him up, chance at a rally, but not always.

00:21:49.000 And Orange Man Bad, In its most vivid realization is Donald Trump convicted felon, Donald Trump indicted in four different jurisdictions.

00:22:01.000 So there are some Democrats who warned against it, who said this is not the way to beat Donald Trump.

00:22:06.000 But I would say, to go to the heart of your question, Most Democrats who are strategists, members of Congress, etc., have thought, this is where we make it a bridge too far for the swing voters who don't like either candidate to vote for Donald Trump.

00:22:22.000 And this takes a little bit of the edge off of that.

00:22:24.000 So it's not a good day for those Democrats.

00:22:27.000 And there are a lot of them who thought lawfare was going to break the tie in this race.

00:22:32.000 So there's some other breaking news today about RFK potentially being off the ballot in North Carolina and also off the ballot in Michigan.

00:22:39.000 This is very consequential as RFK has gone all in behind Donald Trump.

00:22:43.000 We haven't seen it move that much polling except my home state of Arizona where it has moved the dial.

00:22:48.000 The polling in Arizona has moved significantly now that it's a binary race and it's not a three or four person race.

00:22:54.000 We've seen that in the CNN polling and other polling.

00:22:57.000 So, what is your analysis of RFK being on the ballot or off the ballot, and what does history tell us about a candidate who drops out who is still on the ballot?

00:23:07.000 Does it matter?

00:23:09.000 Well, it does.

00:23:09.000 Again, if it's a close race, there's no doubt that Kennedy on the ballot in any state is going to draw some votes.

00:23:15.000 Now, is it a lot?

00:23:17.000 No.

00:23:17.000 Will the message get out that he doesn't want people to vote for him even though he's on the ballot?

00:23:21.000 It will to some people.

00:23:22.000 It won't to others.

00:23:23.000 I think this is another development that is positive for Donald Trump.

00:23:26.000 So he's having a good day, even though I think the event at Trump Tower may not have advanced this cause very much.

00:23:31.000 Having Kennedy off the ballot in two of the seven battleground states where he was going to be on the ballot until this morning is a big deal.

00:23:39.000 They will still get some votes.

00:23:40.000 But I think the answer to Kennedy, and you're right, we see it in Arizona but nowhere else yet, is how hard does he work to transfer his support to Donald Trump, to convert the people who are still attracted.

00:23:52.000 I have people on two-way all the time, just citizens around the country, who work for Kennedy and still may vote for him if he's on the ballot in their state or write him in.

00:24:00.000 In other words, there's some number of Kennedy supporters who don't say, well, my guy endorsed Trump, so I should be for Trump.

00:24:06.000 And I think how many he can convert over in a very systematic, binary way will depend on How hard is he out on the campaign trail?

00:24:15.000 He wrote an op-ed piece in the Wall Street Journal today, but that's different than going to five diners in Michigan, or inner-city Philadelphia, or a Waffle House in Georgia.

00:24:27.000 He hasn't done it yet, but he says he's going to, and I think that will make a big difference if he does.

00:24:32.000 So, and Arizona's probably an outlier with the RFK thing because there is this cowboy libertarian demo in Arizona that they're registered independent, very anti-government, really upset about COVID, and they were parking their vote with RFK, and now the RFK endorsement is definitely a signal towards Trump, and we're seeing that materialize in the polling.

00:24:54.000 So we now have coming up on Tuesday a presidential debate.

00:24:59.000 Debates get a lot of eyeballs.

00:25:01.000 You and I talked about this.

00:25:02.000 They're fun.

00:25:03.000 I think they're somewhat helpful.

00:25:05.000 But in recent political memory, does debate performance dictate actual results?

00:25:12.000 I mean, you remember Obama had a terrible debate performance with Mitt Romney back in 2012.

00:25:17.000 So, and then how much should we expect these candidates, specifically Kamala Harris, who's going to be very, very heavily coached, and she'll receive the coaching, to talk to sub-demographic groups in Georgia and Pennsylvania and Arizona?

00:25:31.000 Speak about the debate, Kamala.

00:25:33.000 Well, first of all, you say 2012 and say, well, Obama had a bad debate, but he won.

00:25:37.000 Well, the fact is, the only reason that race didn't get substantially tighter, which it did after the first debate, is because Obama came back and had a very good second and third debates.

00:25:46.000 So, you know, I laugh when people talk about the 2016 debates because the press corps, which is, you know, just reflexively anti-Trump, said he had horrible debates.

00:25:57.000 I didn't think you could necessarily say that.

00:26:00.000 The debates are judged in the first instance on television, on social media, by reporters who act like theater critics or who judge it based on points in their own mind of what counts as a win.

00:26:11.000 I think Trump was Trump in 2016.

00:26:13.000 He didn't have uniformly great moments.

00:26:15.000 But when Hillary Clinton said, you know, you're the puppet, and he said you're the puppet, I think my sense is, just from knowing a lot of Trump supporters and understanding the mentality there, at least a little bit, I think Trump can have a good debate for the voters that he needs, even when the press on CNN and on Twitter says he didn't have a good debate.

00:26:35.000 So you got to evaluate them in a way to try to get inside the mind, as you said, of some of these subjects.

00:26:41.000 I think it will be widely watched.

00:26:43.000 I didn't think the first one was, and it had decent ratings.

00:26:46.000 I think this one will be very widely watched.

00:26:48.000 And I think that I sort of can imagine how I think she's going to behave.

00:26:53.000 I'll be curious to see if Donald Trump is the Donald Trump we saw today on Friday, a man of grievance and anger, or the one we saw on Thursday when he gave a speech about the economy that was much more uplifting and sort of measured rather than angry.

00:27:07.000 We'll see which Trump shows up, but if someone wins this debate decisively, I think it will move the polls, and I think they'll be the favorite.

00:27:15.000 And that's not always the case, right?

00:27:17.000 We don't always have such a clean possibility of, if you win this debate, you're in the driver's seat the rest of the way.

00:27:23.000 But I think that's true in this case.

00:27:24.000 Is there a second debate?

00:27:26.000 I know that's a silly question, but I don't think they've determined one yet, right?

00:27:30.000 No, it's not a silly question.

00:27:31.000 There's nothing really on the table.

00:27:34.000 There's a notion that NBC would get a debate.

00:27:38.000 Trump previously said he wanted it.

00:27:40.000 The Democrats said no.

00:27:41.000 What the Democrats have said is, The Vice President will consider other debate options only after the first one.

00:27:47.000 I suspect if she wins the first one, her consideration will last all as long as it would take me to chew a piece of gum, which is not very long, and she'll turn it down.

00:27:55.000 If Trump wins the debate, He probably won't want another one, but he still might, because of the mentality he has, I think, is, well, I won the first one, I'll win the second one, and I'll put her away.

00:28:05.000 But I don't think we're going to know until after.

00:28:07.000 And then the question is, what are the rules?

00:28:09.000 In the past, we've had a town hall debate.

00:28:11.000 I don't get the sense that that's on the table.

00:28:13.000 But what would the rules be for another debate?

00:28:15.000 Would it be just kind of the traditional stand behind podiums for 90 minutes and alternate questions?

00:28:19.000 These two debate moderators, who aren't very well known to the public, David Muir is a very high-rated broadcaster, but most people don't watch that show because those shows are dinosaurs.

00:28:31.000 And Lindsay Davis, I think, could walk down the street in Phoenix or in Manhattan and probably not be recognized by very many people.

00:28:40.000 So they're not that familiar.

00:28:42.000 The only way you know her is she was one of the questioners when President Trump spoke to the Black Journalists Association a few weeks ago.

00:28:46.000 Now I know who you're talking about.

00:28:50.000 Yeah.

00:28:50.000 So they're the moderators.

00:28:52.000 They're not known very broadly in the public.

00:28:54.000 David Muir is more, but not, but still, you know, I've known him a long time.

00:28:57.000 And I just say, he's not, he's not, it's not like Peter Jennings or Tom Brokaw in the days when the evening news anchors were, you know, news gods.

00:29:05.000 And they're not very well known with the political press corps.

00:29:07.000 Again, the political press corps can name them, but they're not really students of them the way they would be of a Dana Bash or somebody from cable news.

00:29:16.000 How this, yeah, exactly.

00:29:18.000 So how this debate will go.

00:29:20.000 is really in a large part dependent on them.

00:29:23.000 President Trump today renewed his attack on ABC.

00:29:26.000 He didn't name either of the actual moderators of the debate.

00:29:29.000 He name-checked with one of his nicknames, George Stephanopoulos, and said ABC was so unfair.

00:29:35.000 Charlie, this is how unfair he said ABC was.

00:29:38.000 He said they're more unfair than NBC.

00:29:40.000 That's a lot of unfair in the MAGA mind.

00:29:43.000 But it's really up to them, right?

00:29:46.000 Are they going to ask equal questions?

00:29:47.000 Are they going to focus on hard questions to Trump and then questions to Kamala Harris that are like, how bad is Donald Trump, right?

00:29:54.000 We've seen some journalists from news organizations like ABC ask completely different kinds of questions to the Republican and the Democrat.

00:30:03.000 Or will they be fair?

00:30:05.000 Will they ask a lot of questions about abortion?

00:30:08.000 Will they ask a lot of questions about immigration?

00:30:10.000 Like, they got a lot of power in their hands, but I don't have any doubt that the debates make or break, potentially.

00:30:16.000 The greatest danger I have is that when they impart, it's a very, very dangerous thing.

00:30:21.000 I hope they don't do that because... Yeah, I agree.

00:30:25.000 I don't like it.

00:30:26.000 There's almost no way to do it on either side without bias.

00:30:28.000 There just isn't.

00:30:29.000 So that is not the role of a moderator.

00:30:34.000 Hey everybody, Charlie Kirk here.

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00:31:32.000 slash kirk r-u-f-f greens.com slash kirk.

00:31:34.000 Martell the audience about two-way in your own words.

00:31:40.000 Sure.

00:31:40.000 Two Way is a new platform that's not for centrist, moderates and independents only.

00:31:44.000 It's for people across the political spectrum who want to talk to people who are campaign managers, strategists, members of Congress, campaign officials from the two campaigns to get a sense of what's going on, but also be part of a community of all Americans so their voices can be heard.

00:31:59.000 And you can learn.

00:32:00.000 When people come to the platform, sometimes they get angry and say, well, I don't like that guy because he's MAGA, or I don't like that woman because she's too liberal.

00:32:06.000 It's an opportunity to learn.

00:32:09.000 Sometimes I say behind enemy lines, but the point is we're not enemies.

00:32:12.000 We're all Americans trying to figure this out.

00:32:13.000 And the idea is to learn, educate.

00:32:15.000 I use the motto from Elvis Costello, peace, love, and understanding.

00:32:19.000 I enjoy watching it, because I'm able to see into the Democrat mind, unfiltered in a way, how they view the campaign, how they view politics, and really how they think they're doing, which is hard.

00:32:31.000 Just when you watch cable TV, you can't get much of that.

00:32:34.000 Yep.

00:32:35.000 It's different than cable, that's what we say.

00:32:37.000 Without a doubt.

00:32:37.000 Yes, sir.

00:32:38.000 So, Mark, Kamala Harris is campaigning in New Hampshire this week.

00:32:38.000 Much better.

00:32:42.000 That's been considered to be a relatively safe Democrat state.

00:32:46.000 They've also been doing some campaigning in Virginia and Minnesota.

00:32:50.000 How much should we read into this, if at all?

00:32:53.000 Well, some.

00:32:54.000 And you shouldn't overstate it, but I find the press corps' kind of cover-up and lack of curiosity about this to be kind of extraordinary.

00:33:01.000 The most valuable asset in any presidential campaign is the candidate's time.

00:33:05.000 Here you have Kamala Harris going to New Hampshire, doing a campaign event there—not in Michigan, not in Pennsylvania, not in Georgia—and unveiling some economic policy.

00:33:15.000 Pretty big deal.

00:33:16.000 They've also sent major surrogates there.

00:33:18.000 They've sent a team TV money there, they clearly feel like they might be

00:33:23.000 Now, New Hampshire is not going to be the tipping point state.

00:33:23.000 threatened in New Hampshire.

00:33:26.000 Same with Minnesota. It's not like they're going to win those somehow to surprise and

00:33:31.000 that's going to put them over the top. 1.00

00:33:32.000 But if there's a landslide, which could happen on either side, really, then those

00:33:37.000 states could call a Republican.

00:33:38.000 And so they're defending them.

00:33:40.000 And I think it's fascinating that Politico, you know, which prides itself on

00:33:44.000 sophisticated coverage, their story about her trip to New Hampshire said,

00:33:49.000 that this shows Trump's in trouble.

00:33:52.000 So I'll tell you the other factor, and this is the kind of thing you pick up if you talk to, you know, top Democrats.

00:33:59.000 Hillary Clinton famously lost Michigan, Wisconsin, barely campaigning there because they thought they were safe. 0.94

00:34:06.000 So if you're a top strategist now in a Democratic campaign, you're haunted by the memory of that.

00:34:11.000 And so part of why I'm told they sent her to New Hampshire is to be able to say to themselves, well, we're not going to lose New Hampshire because she didn't go.

00:34:18.000 We're going to go.

00:34:20.000 My guess is, based on private polling from both parties that I've seen or heard about, is she's up by mid-single digits, five or six.

00:34:28.000 But given that Donald Trump sometimes underperforms in polling, five or six is a potential problem on Election Day.

00:34:37.000 I talked to a guy I used to work with at ABC, who's a part of the two-way community, very liberal guy, who lives in New Hampshire.

00:34:43.000 He's got two daughters, I think they're in their 30s, both very liberal, both vote in New Hampshire.

00:34:47.000 He says they're not voting for Kamala Harris.

00:34:50.000 Because they don't like her on the Middle East.

00:34:52.000 They don't like her on the Palestinians.

00:34:54.000 Those are two votes that I think a pollster in New Hampshire might say, well, really super 30-year-old women are going to vote for Kamala Harris? 1.00

00:35:01.000 No.

00:35:02.000 And that's the kind of data point, even though it's anecdotal, that makes me think maybe There's a reason Kamala Harris went to New Hampshire that has to do with the real possibility that Donald Trump could win this state.

00:35:13.000 Yeah, and just imagine if all of a sudden, you know, Donald Trump was doing a swing through Iowa, which he has nothing planned, right?

00:35:20.000 A state he won twice.

00:35:21.000 He still might.

00:35:22.000 I mean, we don't, but I don't, I don't see any data whatsoever that Iowa's in contention.

00:35:27.000 So, Mark, in closing here, you deserve great credit, Mark.

00:35:29.000 You've had the best scoops of this election cycle.

00:35:31.000 That's why I tell the team to keep booking you.

00:35:33.000 And about a week, week and a half ago, you said, hey, two-way audience, just so you know, there's some polling that might come out very soon.

00:35:39.000 And you were mocked by some super lefties.

00:35:41.000 Oh, no, it's not true.

00:35:42.000 And you were right about the race tightening and that Donald Trump is going to have a little bit of an uptick and that we're going to be kind of in a pre-June 27th debate reality.

00:35:53.000 What is then the state of the race based on private public polling or is it just we have to wait for the debate and it's just we can't really tell?

00:35:59.000 Well we have to wait and we have to see if she does really well in the debate we'll be on a different trajectory than if she does poorly.

00:36:06.000 What I reported the other day is if the debate is a wash or if he beats her in the debate what some Republicans believe will happen and some Democrats concur by the way is that by the end of this month She might be back to exactly where Joe Biden was before his debate, which is one electoral college path that the four Sunbelt states, including yours, go back to the Trump column, and that her only way to 270 is Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nebraska's second congressional district.

00:36:35.000 That narrow path leaves no margin of error.

00:36:38.000 No one's ever won with one path.

00:36:40.000 It may not happen.

00:36:41.000 I'm not predicting it will, but it's a real possibility.

00:36:44.000 And if it does, Democrats are going to scratch their heads and say, how did we possibly go from overthrowing Joe Biden to picking someone who was in no stronger position than Joe Biden?

00:36:54.000 If that happens, it's going to be a very painful October for the Democratic Party.

00:36:58.000 But it may not.

00:36:59.000 But it's definitely something that could happen.

00:37:00.000 It's definitely something to watch.

00:37:01.000 And the private data suggests that's where we're moving.

00:37:05.000 That whatever bounce she had from being named to the top of the ticket and from the convention might be dissipating.

00:37:11.000 And that the natural state of those four Sun Belt states may be, not with a huge Trump victory, but comfortable enough, consistent enough in the polling to see that he's going to win those four.

00:37:22.000 As Trump would say, let's see what happens.

00:37:24.000 Check out the two-way app.

00:37:24.000 Thank you so much, Mark, and we'll all be watching the debate.

00:37:26.000 Thank you.

00:37:27.000 Great, Charlie.

00:37:28.000 We're going to have you on two-way soon as well.

00:37:29.000 We'll get it done.

00:37:30.000 I look forward to that.

00:37:31.000 I would love that.

00:37:31.000 Thank you.

00:37:31.000 All right.

00:37:32.000 Thank you, man.

00:37:33.000 Thanks so much for listening, everybody.

00:37:34.000 Email us, as always, freedom at charliekirk.com.

00:37:36.000 Thanks so much for listening and God bless.

The Charlie Kirk Show - September 06, 2024

The Best Friday of the Campaign

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