Trump gets endorsed by the Fraternal Order of Police, RFK is off the ballot in Michigan and potentially North Carolina, then of course the big news, Trump s sentencing is kicked to November, huge news! You re gonna love this conversation. Then I recap my visit to UW-Madison and this huge breaking news hour. And of course, I talk about my trip to Michigan and why RFK s name should not be on the ballot there. If you like what you hear here, please HIT SUBSCRIBE and become a supporter of The Charlie Kirk Show! It helps spread the word about the show and help spread it around the country. Thank you so much for your support and stay tuned for more breaking news and breaking stories! Subscribe to the show to stay up to date on the happenings in politics and everything else going on in the world of politics and our favorite pastime. Thanks for listening and Happy Election Day! CHEERS! - Charlie, Kristian & Mark Halperin - The CharlieKirk Show - The Weekly Political Scoops - Charlie & Mark - Charlie's Weekly Political Opinions - The Dark Side of the Hill - The Political Matrix - The Inside Scoop - The New York Times - The Daily Mail - The Hill's Peter Thiel - The Huffington Post - The Wall Street Journal - The Independent - The Hollywood Reporter - The Financial Times - and much more! See all the latest political news and take it on The Charlie Kirkerrk Show! - The Free Press - The Athletic - The FiveThirtyEight - The Root - The Six Sigma - The Dirty Little Number - The Atlantic - The Hotline - The View From Above - The Dr. Tomahawk - The Street Report - The Real Deal - The Breakfast Club - The Insider - The Hustler - The Foyster - The Rebel - The Cut - The Machinist - The Money Line - The Nod - The Nugget - The Huffington Post - And much, Much More! - And so much more. - Subscribe to The Charlie's Guide to the 2020 Democratic Nominee? and much, much more... Click here to find out what s happening in 2020! and more! - Watch this week's Top 3? Subscribe and subscribe to our new show on what s going to happen in 2020 and other great political news on the political world! on the Hill's Top 5?
00:00:00.000Hey everybody, thanks for tuning into the Charlie Kirk Show.
00:00:01.000Mark Halperin, who has been the number one reporter and accurately predicting what's happening in this election more than anybody else, he has like five or six scoops.
00:00:10.000He got Biden dropping out right, he got Kamala being the nominee right, he's gotten polling data right, he joins the program.
00:00:16.000And then I recap my visit to UW-Madison and this huge breaking news hour.
00:00:20.000Trump gets endorsed by the Fraternal Order of Police, RFK off the ballot in Michigan and potentially North Carolina, then of course the big news, Trump's sentencing is kicked to November.
00:01:09.000He's done an amazing job building one of the most powerful youth organizations ever created, Turning Point USA.
00:01:16.000We will not embrace the ideas that have destroyed countries, destroyed lives, and we are gonna fight for freedom on campuses across the country.
00:01:28.000Noble Gold Investments is the official gold sponsor of The Charlie Kirk Show, a company that specializes in gold IRAs and physical delivery of precious metals.
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00:03:04.000The State Board of Elections basically told all counties in this state To not mail these out after a judge ordered a 24-hour stay to allow RFK Jr.
00:03:12.000to appeal her decision to have his name stay on the ballot.
00:03:17.000The argument here, Dana, is that reprinting thousands and thousands of ballots would eat into early voting time.
00:03:24.000Let's continue 127 coverage of the North Carolina lawsuit RFK pausing ballots to go out to get his name off the ballot.
00:03:32.000The problem is I can't just remove his name and then start printing.
00:03:35.000I still have to look at ballot layout, make sure it's all lining up, and then I have to get it approved by the state, and then I have to start testing it.
00:04:09.000Oh, well, we might have to work really hard and I have to get things approved.
00:04:12.000That is a perfect example, an accurate depiction of how bureaucracy, red tape, stupid rules have just suffocated our ability To be able to do something very simple.
00:04:24.000You notice she doesn't say that on the merits.
00:04:27.000Oh, well, it's just very difficult because my staff might have to work somewhat hard.
00:04:33.000So, in Michigan, the appeals court has ordered RFK is off the ballot in Michigan.
00:04:38.000Now, it could be appealed to the state Supreme Court, but state officials were saying today was the deadline to finalize.
00:04:45.000So, they have to flip-flop if they wanted to appeal it.
00:04:50.000Now, remember, Democrats, they worked so hard to keep RFK off the ballot, Democrats, the party democracy, they wanted RFK off the ballot, RFK off the ballot, RFK off the ballot, RFK off the ballot, because at the time, RFK was hurting Joe Biden.
00:05:07.000Now, Democrats are working in overdrive to keep RFK on the ballot, on the ballot, on the ballot, on the ballot.
00:05:14.000One of the reasons why RFK endorsed Donald Trump, of course they have similar world views, they have different politics but similar values and similar instincts and their why is the same, is one of the reasons why RFK got behind Donald Trump so enthusiastically is because it was not the Republican Party that was trying to keep him off the ballot.
00:05:35.000It was not the Republican Party that was trying to sue him and send private investigators.
00:05:39.000RFK experienced The wrath of the modern Democrat Party.
00:06:17.000Will he be on the ballot in North Carolina?
00:06:18.000These could end up being consequential Behind the scenes, not always covered details as to whether or not Donald Trump ends up winning the presidency.
00:06:29.000Remember, in 2020, the election was decided by 42,000 ballots.
00:07:29.000Alright, so let's just say the polls match up perfectly to what the results end up being.
00:07:35.000Kamala Harris would win this election with 292 electoral votes to Donald Trump's 246.
00:07:39.000But let's just say we move the current polls and let's say the result differs by them by a single percentage point and Donald Trump is the beneficiary of it.
00:07:50.000If Trump outperforms his current polls by just a single point, you take that Kamala Harris win and look at this.
00:07:56.000Donald Trump gets 287 electoral votes because the bottom line is Pennsylvania would flip up here and you would also get this flip out in Nevada over here.
00:08:06.000And that, my friends, is what we're talking about.
00:08:08.000We are talking about the closest campaign in a generation where a single point could make all the difference in the world.
00:08:15.000That's exactly what we've been saying at Turning Point Action for quite some time.
00:08:43.000I'm reading all these left-wing blogs, and they were counting on Donald Trump is getting sentenced soon, Donald Trump is getting sentenced soon, Donald Trump is getting sentenced soon, Donald Trump is getting sentenced soon, and no, he's not.
00:08:56.000Potentially, they could have sentenced Donald Trump to jail effective 2025.
00:09:02.000They could have put him out to Rikers.
00:09:05.000Next in a week and a half, Donald Trump will not have to face a sentencing verdict until after voters have selected.
00:09:15.000Donald Trump won a delay to his sentencing decision in New York, hush money case, until after the November 5th election.
00:09:24.000Trump will be sentenced on November 26th.
00:11:35.000Well, I'm happy to tell you that my good friends at Hillsdale College have made it so easy for you to learn even more with the Hillsdale College Podcast Network.
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00:12:23.000RFK ballot news and Donald Trump's trial kicked to after the election.
00:12:30.000If you read the Democrat blogs like I do, many Democrat operatives were counting, counting, counting on Trump being sentenced, the polling will change, maybe he'll be hauled off to prison, maybe there's a future prison sentence.
00:13:56.000In fact, Dane County voted more Democrat than Milwaukee Then Milwaukee, Dane County is more Democrat than downtown Milwaukee.
00:14:09.000And despite all of that, Donald Trump still fell 21,000 votes short.
00:14:15.000So I'm used to when I go to these college campuses from years ago, you know, setting up a card table, 10 people come by, 20 people come by.
00:15:24.000Who else is doing this work except Turning Point Action?
00:15:25.000Scott Pressler's doing great work with Pennsylvania.
00:15:28.000But going into left-wing campus territory and finding people that agree with us to lose by less is pioneer, courageous, brave work that Turning Point Action deserves such credit for.
00:17:23.000Because we went, we set up shop, we didn't care the names they called us.
00:17:28.000Thousands of people reached, 150 new Trump voters, and probably thousands of cumulative votes if you count the encouragement, the energy, the passion.
00:17:36.000What we did in the bluest county in Wisconsin.
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00:18:44.000Joining us now is Mark Halperin, who is the editor-in-chief and host of the new company Two Way, which I love watching.
00:18:50.000A digital platform that brings together creators and influential people with their superfans for extended, sophisticated conversations like none other on interactive video.
00:18:59.000And it's been going very viral lately on Two Way.
00:19:11.000Yeah, well, first of all, it wasn't a press conference.
00:19:13.000They advertised it as such, but it didn't take a single question.
00:19:16.000I went in the misguided hope that he would, and my general rule is when I go to Trump Tower, I do not wear a Charlie Kirkian t-shirt, but I put on a tie and jacket.
00:19:34.000Post that speech that President Trump gave, that presser, was this incredible news that all of a sudden there's no sentencing.
00:19:42.000From our perspective, and just reading a lot of left-wing blogs or commentators, for example, like Simon Rosenberg, who's pretty smart, He was banking a lot on sentencing, saying it would change the race, saying that this would really tighten it and favor Kamala Harris.
00:19:59.000Or is it just another rounding error in a very eventful political season?
00:20:02.000Well, I mean, look, Charlie, whenever we discuss anything, having a deal is that if the race ends up being super close, everything's a big deal because we don't know what's going to affect these handful of voters and affect turnout.
00:20:12.000I do think that those, whether you think President Trump is innocent, whether you think he's guilty, whether you don't know, but you simply think these civil and criminal cases are excessive.
00:20:21.000There's no doubt that there are tens of millions of Americans who look at developments in these cases, and even if they don't like Donald Trump, they think it's outrageous.
00:20:30.000And he today, and his lawyers, expressed indignity that he had to go through this.
00:20:35.000In the DC case, the Jack Smith case, where it looks like there will not be
00:20:39.000any sort of significant action before the election, the sentencing in the New York case,
00:20:44.000while those things could cut in Donald Trump's favor if they occurred, in other words,
00:20:48.000the more lawfare there is, the more money he can raise, and the more outrageous supporters are,
00:20:53.000I think probably on balance, and I admit Trump deems it this way,
00:20:56.000on balance, it is a big deal to not be either incarcerated,
00:21:00.000which I thought was a real possibility, and taken off the campaign trail,
00:21:36.000But as you know, They've started to refer to him pretty regularly as a convicted felon.
00:21:43.000The vice president sometimes tries to tamp down, lock him up, chance at a rally, but not always.
00:21:49.000And Orange Man Bad, In its most vivid realization is Donald Trump convicted felon, Donald Trump indicted in four different jurisdictions.
00:22:01.000So there are some Democrats who warned against it, who said this is not the way to beat Donald Trump.
00:22:06.000But I would say, to go to the heart of your question, Most Democrats who are strategists, members of Congress, etc., have thought, this is where we make it a bridge too far for the swing voters who don't like either candidate to vote for Donald Trump.
00:22:22.000And this takes a little bit of the edge off of that.
00:22:24.000So it's not a good day for those Democrats.
00:22:27.000And there are a lot of them who thought lawfare was going to break the tie in this race.
00:22:32.000So there's some other breaking news today about RFK potentially being off the ballot in North Carolina and also off the ballot in Michigan.
00:22:39.000This is very consequential as RFK has gone all in behind Donald Trump.
00:22:43.000We haven't seen it move that much polling except my home state of Arizona where it has moved the dial.
00:22:48.000The polling in Arizona has moved significantly now that it's a binary race and it's not a three or four person race.
00:22:54.000We've seen that in the CNN polling and other polling.
00:22:57.000So, what is your analysis of RFK being on the ballot or off the ballot, and what does history tell us about a candidate who drops out who is still on the ballot?
00:23:23.000I think this is another development that is positive for Donald Trump.
00:23:26.000So he's having a good day, even though I think the event at Trump Tower may not have advanced this cause very much.
00:23:31.000Having Kennedy off the ballot in two of the seven battleground states where he was going to be on the ballot until this morning is a big deal.
00:23:40.000But I think the answer to Kennedy, and you're right, we see it in Arizona but nowhere else yet, is how hard does he work to transfer his support to Donald Trump, to convert the people who are still attracted.
00:23:52.000I have people on two-way all the time, just citizens around the country, who work for Kennedy and still may vote for him if he's on the ballot in their state or write him in.
00:24:00.000In other words, there's some number of Kennedy supporters who don't say, well, my guy endorsed Trump, so I should be for Trump.
00:24:06.000And I think how many he can convert over in a very systematic, binary way will depend on How hard is he out on the campaign trail?
00:24:15.000He wrote an op-ed piece in the Wall Street Journal today, but that's different than going to five diners in Michigan, or inner-city Philadelphia, or a Waffle House in Georgia.
00:24:27.000He hasn't done it yet, but he says he's going to, and I think that will make a big difference if he does.
00:24:32.000So, and Arizona's probably an outlier with the RFK thing because there is this cowboy libertarian demo in Arizona that they're registered independent, very anti-government, really upset about COVID, and they were parking their vote with RFK, and now the RFK endorsement is definitely a signal towards Trump, and we're seeing that materialize in the polling.
00:24:54.000So we now have coming up on Tuesday a presidential debate.
00:25:05.000But in recent political memory, does debate performance dictate actual results?
00:25:12.000I mean, you remember Obama had a terrible debate performance with Mitt Romney back in 2012.
00:25:17.000So, and then how much should we expect these candidates, specifically Kamala Harris, who's going to be very, very heavily coached, and she'll receive the coaching, to talk to sub-demographic groups in Georgia and Pennsylvania and Arizona?
00:25:33.000Well, first of all, you say 2012 and say, well, Obama had a bad debate, but he won.
00:25:37.000Well, the fact is, the only reason that race didn't get substantially tighter, which it did after the first debate, is because Obama came back and had a very good second and third debates.
00:25:46.000So, you know, I laugh when people talk about the 2016 debates because the press corps, which is, you know, just reflexively anti-Trump, said he had horrible debates.
00:25:57.000I didn't think you could necessarily say that.
00:26:00.000The debates are judged in the first instance on television, on social media, by reporters who act like theater critics or who judge it based on points in their own mind of what counts as a win.
00:26:13.000He didn't have uniformly great moments.
00:26:15.000But when Hillary Clinton said, you know, you're the puppet, and he said you're the puppet, I think my sense is, just from knowing a lot of Trump supporters and understanding the mentality there, at least a little bit, I think Trump can have a good debate for the voters that he needs, even when the press on CNN and on Twitter says he didn't have a good debate.
00:26:35.000So you got to evaluate them in a way to try to get inside the mind, as you said, of some of these subjects.
00:26:43.000I didn't think the first one was, and it had decent ratings.
00:26:46.000I think this one will be very widely watched.
00:26:48.000And I think that I sort of can imagine how I think she's going to behave.
00:26:53.000I'll be curious to see if Donald Trump is the Donald Trump we saw today on Friday, a man of grievance and anger, or the one we saw on Thursday when he gave a speech about the economy that was much more uplifting and sort of measured rather than angry.
00:27:07.000We'll see which Trump shows up, but if someone wins this debate decisively, I think it will move the polls, and I think they'll be the favorite.
00:27:15.000And that's not always the case, right?
00:27:17.000We don't always have such a clean possibility of, if you win this debate, you're in the driver's seat the rest of the way.
00:27:41.000What the Democrats have said is, The Vice President will consider other debate options only after the first one.
00:27:47.000I suspect if she wins the first one, her consideration will last all as long as it would take me to chew a piece of gum, which is not very long, and she'll turn it down.
00:27:55.000If Trump wins the debate, He probably won't want another one, but he still might, because of the mentality he has, I think, is, well, I won the first one, I'll win the second one, and I'll put her away.
00:28:05.000But I don't think we're going to know until after.
00:28:07.000And then the question is, what are the rules?
00:28:09.000In the past, we've had a town hall debate.
00:28:11.000I don't get the sense that that's on the table.
00:28:13.000But what would the rules be for another debate?
00:28:15.000Would it be just kind of the traditional stand behind podiums for 90 minutes and alternate questions?
00:28:19.000These two debate moderators, who aren't very well known to the public, David Muir is a very high-rated broadcaster, but most people don't watch that show because those shows are dinosaurs.
00:28:31.000And Lindsay Davis, I think, could walk down the street in Phoenix or in Manhattan and probably not be recognized by very many people.
00:28:42.000The only way you know her is she was one of the questioners when President Trump spoke to the Black Journalists Association a few weeks ago.
00:28:52.000They're not known very broadly in the public.
00:28:54.000David Muir is more, but not, but still, you know, I've known him a long time.
00:28:57.000And I just say, he's not, he's not, it's not like Peter Jennings or Tom Brokaw in the days when the evening news anchors were, you know, news gods.
00:29:05.000And they're not very well known with the political press corps.
00:29:07.000Again, the political press corps can name them, but they're not really students of them the way they would be of a Dana Bash or somebody from cable news.
00:29:46.000Are they going to ask equal questions?
00:29:47.000Are they going to focus on hard questions to Trump and then questions to Kamala Harris that are like, how bad is Donald Trump, right?
00:29:54.000We've seen some journalists from news organizations like ABC ask completely different kinds of questions to the Republican and the Democrat.
00:31:40.000Two Way is a new platform that's not for centrist, moderates and independents only.
00:31:44.000It's for people across the political spectrum who want to talk to people who are campaign managers, strategists, members of Congress, campaign officials from the two campaigns to get a sense of what's going on, but also be part of a community of all Americans so their voices can be heard.
00:32:00.000When people come to the platform, sometimes they get angry and say, well, I don't like that guy because he's MAGA, or I don't like that woman because she's too liberal.
00:32:15.000I use the motto from Elvis Costello, peace, love, and understanding.
00:32:19.000I enjoy watching it, because I'm able to see into the Democrat mind, unfiltered in a way, how they view the campaign, how they view politics, and really how they think they're doing, which is hard.
00:32:31.000Just when you watch cable TV, you can't get much of that.
00:32:54.000And you shouldn't overstate it, but I find the press corps' kind of cover-up and lack of curiosity about this to be kind of extraordinary.
00:33:01.000The most valuable asset in any presidential campaign is the candidate's time.
00:33:05.000Here you have Kamala Harris going to New Hampshire, doing a campaign event there—not in Michigan, not in Pennsylvania, not in Georgia—and unveiling some economic policy.
00:33:52.000So I'll tell you the other factor, and this is the kind of thing you pick up if you talk to, you know, top Democrats.
00:33:59.000Hillary Clinton famously lost Michigan, Wisconsin, barely campaigning there because they thought they were safe.
00:34:06.000So if you're a top strategist now in a Democratic campaign, you're haunted by the memory of that.
00:34:11.000And so part of why I'm told they sent her to New Hampshire is to be able to say to themselves, well, we're not going to lose New Hampshire because she didn't go.
00:34:20.000My guess is, based on private polling from both parties that I've seen or heard about, is she's up by mid-single digits, five or six.
00:34:28.000But given that Donald Trump sometimes underperforms in polling, five or six is a potential problem on Election Day.
00:34:37.000I talked to a guy I used to work with at ABC, who's a part of the two-way community, very liberal guy, who lives in New Hampshire.
00:34:43.000He's got two daughters, I think they're in their 30s, both very liberal, both vote in New Hampshire.
00:34:47.000He says they're not voting for Kamala Harris.
00:34:50.000Because they don't like her on the Middle East.
00:34:52.000They don't like her on the Palestinians.
00:34:54.000Those are two votes that I think a pollster in New Hampshire might say, well, really super 30-year-old women are going to vote for Kamala Harris?
00:35:02.000And that's the kind of data point, even though it's anecdotal, that makes me think maybe There's a reason Kamala Harris went to New Hampshire that has to do with the real possibility that Donald Trump could win this state.
00:35:13.000Yeah, and just imagine if all of a sudden, you know, Donald Trump was doing a swing through Iowa, which he has nothing planned, right?
00:35:22.000I mean, we don't, but I don't, I don't see any data whatsoever that Iowa's in contention.
00:35:27.000So, Mark, in closing here, you deserve great credit, Mark.
00:35:29.000You've had the best scoops of this election cycle.
00:35:31.000That's why I tell the team to keep booking you.
00:35:33.000And about a week, week and a half ago, you said, hey, two-way audience, just so you know, there's some polling that might come out very soon.
00:35:39.000And you were mocked by some super lefties.
00:35:42.000And you were right about the race tightening and that Donald Trump is going to have a little bit of an uptick and that we're going to be kind of in a pre-June 27th debate reality.
00:35:53.000What is then the state of the race based on private public polling or is it just we have to wait for the debate and it's just we can't really tell?
00:35:59.000Well we have to wait and we have to see if she does really well in the debate we'll be on a different trajectory than if she does poorly.
00:36:06.000What I reported the other day is if the debate is a wash or if he beats her in the debate what some Republicans believe will happen and some Democrats concur by the way is that by the end of this month She might be back to exactly where Joe Biden was before his debate, which is one electoral college path that the four Sunbelt states, including yours, go back to the Trump column, and that her only way to 270 is Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nebraska's second congressional district.
00:36:35.000That narrow path leaves no margin of error.
00:36:41.000I'm not predicting it will, but it's a real possibility.
00:36:44.000And if it does, Democrats are going to scratch their heads and say, how did we possibly go from overthrowing Joe Biden to picking someone who was in no stronger position than Joe Biden?
00:36:54.000If that happens, it's going to be a very painful October for the Democratic Party.
00:37:01.000And the private data suggests that's where we're moving.
00:37:05.000That whatever bounce she had from being named to the top of the ticket and from the convention might be dissipating.
00:37:11.000And that the natural state of those four Sun Belt states may be, not with a huge Trump victory, but comfortable enough, consistent enough in the polling to see that he's going to win those four.
00:37:22.000As Trump would say, let's see what happens.