The Charlie Kirk Show - The China Thucydides Trap? + Venezuela, 51st State?

00:00:03.000 My name is Charlie Kirk.

00:00:05.000 I run the largest pro American student organization in the country fighting for the future of our republic.

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00:00:48.000 Buckle up, everybody.

00:00:49.000 Here we go.

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00:01:17.000 Welcome to the Charlie Kirk Show.

00:01:19.000 It is Thursday, May 14th.

00:01:22.000 We are here at the Y Refi Studios in Phoenix, Arizona.

00:01:25.000 Welcome, Blake.

00:01:26.000 How are we doing this morning?

00:01:26.000 Hello.

00:01:27.000 Oh, we're doing splendid.

00:01:29.000 Well, we've got a lot of things going on internationally today.

00:01:29.000 Wonderful.

00:01:32.000 Of course, President Trump is in China.

00:01:36.000 On a much celebrated trip to meet with President Xi.

00:01:40.000 He was greeted with a red carpet.

00:01:41.000 We talked about it yesterday.

00:01:44.000 More and more pomp, more circumstance, more celebrations, lots of, I would say, shows of welcoming.

00:01:52.000 However, underneath the surface, it appears that the fault lines between these two nations are becoming more and more clear.

00:01:59.000 There was a lot of speculation before this trip to China what would be the central fissures or fractures between the two countries?

00:02:05.000 We understood that there's the Iranian War.

00:02:08.000 The U.S. wants to lean on China to pressure Iran to open the strait, to give up its uranium. 0.62

00:02:14.000 But what would the Chinese expect in return?

00:02:16.000 Obviously, there's also, they're calling this, by the way, the Boeing, the, it's the three B's, the Boeing, the beans, and the, I'm forgetting one of the others. 0.88

00:02:25.000 The bigwigs?

00:02:26.000 Yeah, probably something like that.

00:02:28.000 Oh, beef.

00:02:30.000 Boeing beef and beans.

00:02:31.000 Anyways, so there's a lot of trade issues that need to be ironed out, tariffs.

00:02:36.000 There's the fentanyl precursors that are flowing from China.

00:02:40.000 To parts of the world where they make fentanyl and try and pour it into our borders.

00:02:44.000 President Trump has done a great job limiting the incoming fentanyl to the United States, but it still remains an ongoing issue.

00:02:51.000 So, what are the big fault lines?

00:02:52.000 Well, it's becoming more clear that turns out Taiwan is top of mind for the CCP.

00:03:01.000 And Xi is offering a warning on Taiwan as he and President Trump strike a positive note, but underlying this, it's very negative.

00:03:08.000 Now, what is the Thucydides?

00:03:12.000 Thucydides.

00:03:13.000 I almost got it through Cities Traps.

00:03:15.000 There it is.

00:03:16.000 It's an ancient reference to the Peloponnesian Wars in ancient Greece.

00:03:22.000 And Blake, being our resident historian, is going to break it down.

00:03:25.000 But it was a term coined by Harvard Academics.

00:03:28.000 Yeah, Graham Allison in about 2011.

00:03:31.000 But it's a lot older than that.

00:03:32.000 It's a lot older than that.

00:03:34.000 But here's what's interesting China has been referencing it, Blake, since as early as 2014.

00:03:39.000 Yes.

00:03:40.000 Well, so China at least does read Western history, Western thought.

00:03:47.000 A lot of their leaders are certainly more educated in our history than most of us are in Chinese history.

00:03:54.000 Which is common around the world, I will say.

00:03:55.000 Common around the world, but it is revealing. 1.00

00:03:57.000 China has, we should just be frank.

00:04:01.000 China is authoritarian, but it does mean most people who rise to the top are very smart in a way that doesn't always happen in the US with us appointing people to things and all of that.

00:04:13.000 But Thucydides trap.

00:04:15.000 So that's a reference to ancient Greek historian Thucydides.

00:04:18.000 If you've heard of him at all, you maybe picked him up in a college course about political science.

00:04:25.000 He wrote not the first historical text, but probably the first one that's really scholarly that reads like.

00:04:34.000 Academic history you might read today.

00:04:36.000 And he wrote it about the Peloponnesian War.

00:04:37.000 It's a war between ancient Greece, the city of Athens, and Sparta.

00:04:42.000 If you've seen the movie 300, it's those guys.

00:04:45.000 And they fought a war for dominance of Greece.

00:04:47.000 And the reason we have a thing called the Thucydides trap in his history, Thucydides theorizes that the cause of the war was that Athens was becoming more and more powerful.

00:04:57.000 It was becoming the most powerful city in Greece.

00:05:00.000 And so Sparta feared this.

00:05:02.000 And so they declared war to stop.

00:05:04.000 Athens, before they became too powerful, and they were successful. 0.52

00:05:07.000 They actually won that war.

00:05:09.000 Now, the idea is that this recurs throughout history, and our biggest, most cataclysmic wars are between a rising power and then the power that they are threatening to supplant, which is frightened of them the ruling power that is frightened into acting before it is too late.

00:05:30.000 And so, if you want a classic example of this, the one people point to is World War I. World War I was Germany as leader of the Central Powers, and they fought.

00:05:38.000 Against France, Russia, and most notably, Britain.

00:05:41.000 Britain was the most powerful country in the world.

00:05:43.000 They had the biggest empire.

00:05:45.000 And the idea is, Britain was afraid of Germany because Germany was getting colonies.

00:05:49.000 Germany was getting a bigger economy.

00:05:51.000 Germany was building a giant navy that could threaten the Royal Navy.

00:05:54.000 And so, in Germany and Britain at this time, they actually had a big fear.

00:05:59.000 One of the most popular genres of literature was invasion literature, where Germany or a country that resembles Germany but won't be called Germany invade Britain.

00:06:08.000 This is like the romantic chick lit of the day, except they were all reading these books about Germany invading Britain.

00:06:13.000 They were afraid of them, and so they ended up getting dragged into a war with Germany, and over 10 million people died.

00:06:21.000 Similarly, the idea is when we fought Japan in World War II, part of this was motivated that Japan was becoming more and more powerful. 0.92

00:06:30.000 So FDR and the US were taking steps to contain Japan, don't let them take over China, don't let them spread in other places. 0.83

00:06:38.000 Japan feels that we're holding them down, so they attack Pearl Harbor. 0.93

00:06:42.000 We get that war. 0.85

00:06:43.000 And there's other examples throughout history that we don't need to dive into.

00:06:45.000 Mr. Allison identified 16 times in history that a rising power threatened to displace a ruling one.

00:06:51.000 And according to his tally, which is subjective, 12 of the 16 rivalries end in kinetic conflict, war.

00:06:59.000 In 2015, President Xi did say, There is no such thing as the so called Thucydides.

00:07:05.000 You just say it.

00:07:05.000 Thucydides.

00:07:08.000 Thucydides trap in the world, said Mr. Xi in 2015 before an audience that included feminists.

00:07:14.000 Former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger.

00:07:17.000 It was on his mind again.

00:07:18.000 I'm reading from the New York Times.

00:07:20.000 On Thursday, speaking before Mr. Trump in the Great Hall of the People, Mr. Xi said the world had reached a new crossroads.

00:07:27.000 Can China and the United States overcome this trap and establish a new paradigm for relations between great powers?

00:07:34.000 Now, I think it's more interesting that China keeps referencing this as opposed to the United States.

00:07:40.000 Guaranteed the United States actors here are very aware of this dynamic, but it's a A soft flex because they're basically saying that we are now on par or in route to being on par.

00:07:52.000 They are saying, yeah, China's 100%.

00:07:54.000 When they say this and can we avoid it, they are saying 100%.

00:07:57.000 China is rising and is poised to overtake the United States.

00:08:02.000 Can we allow this to happen peacefully without the United States declaring war on us? 0.56

00:08:07.000 That is what China is saying when they say that.

00:08:10.000 Now, to be clear, there are leverage points on the United States side here.

00:08:16.000 China is very reliant in many ways on energy flowing through the Strait of Hormuz.

00:08:22.000 Now, they're the biggest buyer of Iran's energy.

00:08:25.000 So you could say Iran is more reliant on China than China is on Iran. 1.00

00:08:28.000 I certainly think that's true.

00:08:29.000 But after you take Venezuela, And Iran's energy off the board, it does put pressures on China.

00:08:36.000 Now, China also has weak domestic demand when you think about their economy.

00:08:41.000 They are an export driven economy.

00:08:44.000 If you make energy and production of goods more expensive for China in general, it will drive up costs, it will hurt their economy.

00:08:53.000 And they seem to be probably in the midst of a sluggish, I think you could safely say, a sluggish economic situation right now.

00:09:02.000 There's Differing accounts of how sluggish that is, how endangered their economy is, but they do seem to be putting specific pressure on Taiwan.

00:09:12.000 They want to exert maximal influence and control over Taiwan. 0.68

00:09:17.000 And as you said before the show, they believe that Taiwan is theirs by right. 0.81

00:09:20.000 100%.

00:09:21.000 They think it is on par as if someone had yoinked Maine or Washington or Hawaii off of us and they want it back.

00:09:30.000 So, a little history lesson on Taiwan.

00:09:33.000 So, in China views Taiwan as, we mentioned before, an inseparable part of their territory.

00:09:40.000 It calls it reunification.

00:09:42.000 So, nationally, that is the term that they use.

00:09:45.000 Even though Taiwan does not ascribe to this, China and Xi, they see it as reunifying Taiwan to the nation of China.

00:09:54.000 Well, Taiwan does ascribe to this.

00:09:56.000 You know what Taiwan's actual official name is, right?

00:09:58.000 Yes, I do, actually.

00:09:59.000 Republic of China.

00:10:00.000 Yes, exactly.

00:10:01.000 Their claim is they are the one government of all of China.

00:10:05.000 Yes, in fact, they claim more territory than the People's Republic does, I think.

00:10:08.000 I think the Republic of China may have, I might be wrong here, but I believe they've never recognized the independence of Mongolia.

00:10:14.000 So they still claim Mongolia as part of Super China, which it was part of China way back in the day.

00:10:20.000 Well, Beijing has never ruled Taiwan.

00:10:22.000 So that's the first thing we need to say.

00:10:27.000 They claim it as a breakaway province since the Chinese Civil War ended in 1949 when the nationalist government retreated there.

00:10:34.000 So that's kind of the point you're making.

00:10:35.000 So the nationalist government retreated to Taiwan.

00:10:38.000 They set up shop in Taiwan.

00:10:40.000 That's why they claim to be the legitimate power over the mainland of China.

00:10:45.000 And I guess to your point, even more territory than the CCP claims for itself.

00:10:50.000 But nevertheless, there's a lot of things that are going on there.

00:10:53.000 It's obviously historical and ideological, it's military, it's a strategic military outpost because it sits as the first island chain.

00:11:02.000 It would allow China to project its strength out into the Pacific, which would complicate matters for the U.S., obviously, and some of our allies like the Philippines and Japan.

00:11:13.000 It would secure China's eastern flank, if you will, out into the Pacific.

00:11:18.000 But there's also what we talked about economic and technological matters to be considered as well.

00:11:24.000 Taiwan is the global leader in semiconductors.

00:11:27.000 TSMC produces approximately 90% of the world's most advanced chips.

00:11:33.000 It's really a huge complicator because we've supported Taiwan for 80 years at this point.

00:11:40.000 We've backed up their government against China.

00:11:43.000 But for most of that time, a lot of that period, Taiwan was not that wealthy.

00:11:47.000 Or at least it was just wealthy in the same way Japan was.

00:11:50.000 And so we supported them for sentimental reasons, for anti communist reasons. 0.94

00:11:54.000 But now, over the past 30, 40 years, they have become the most important choke point of the world's most important technology.

00:12:02.000 When we say semiconductors, that is microchips.

00:12:05.000 That is the stuff that goes into the chips that you put in your computer, that you put in, it's driving AI, it's driving, it's the stuff you put in missiles to make sure they work correctly.

00:12:17.000 It is the most important technology in the world.

00:12:19.000 And the most advanced fabricators that make the best chips, the fastest, Are in Taiwan and China would love to have them, but they'd also love to have Taiwan for the reasons we mentioned.

00:12:30.000 It was a part of China back when they were an imperial monarchy, they lost it as part of the Civil War.

00:12:38.000 It is hard for us to grasp how psychologically important it is to the Chinese. 0.79

00:12:44.000 You grow up learning about this as the rightful Chinese province that was snatched away by these pawns of the West and they want to keep us apart. 0.98

00:12:54.000 That's the narrative they're told. 0.84

00:12:55.000 And there's self interested reasons for them to push that, but.

00:12:59.000 That doesn't mean they don't really believe it.

00:13:01.000 It's safe to say that Taiwan, from a tech talent standpoint, and obviously this TSMC, which produces 90% of the world's most advanced chips, makes Taiwan an incredibly important chess piece on the board of geopolitics.

00:13:18.000 And I think it's also important to understand that what makes Taiwan so powerful in this respect, yeah, and you'll see there, there's U.S. clears H200 chip sales to 10 China firms, and this is a big Part of the storyline here, NVIDIA's chief CEO Jensen is they picked him up in Alaska on en route to China.

00:13:39.000 So they picked him up there and he's flying with them.

00:13:42.000 He's looking to secure these big deals.

00:13:44.000 I don't love this candidly because President Trump is surrounding himself with people that have self interests in expanding the market in China.

00:13:51.000 President Trump is acting as their chief salesman and trying to open up markets for the U.S. firms.

00:13:58.000 Obviously, that's important because we opened up the U.S. market to China for 25 years. 0.88

00:14:03.000 And got absolutely ravaged by it. 0.98

00:14:05.000 We got our industrial base hollowed out.

00:14:05.000 Okay.

00:14:07.000 What did we get for it?

00:14:08.000 We got a bunch of cheap goods, plastic, rubber crap that ends up in the trash, in the waste bin. 0.99

00:14:16.000 So we got to open up China for sure. 1.00

00:14:18.000 But there's so many strings attached that I don't love it.

00:14:21.000 And one of them is that you've got people like NVIDIA's CEO who has self interest in China.

00:14:26.000 Now, the H200 is the second gen, it's an older chip that also might be a slightly degraded version of it.

00:14:34.000 So, you get them hooked on our chips so that they don't produce their own or don't get more incentivized to invade Taiwan and take it over.

00:14:41.000 Now, we have a TSMC production facility, a chip making facility here in Arizona that was built.

00:14:49.000 It's this massive, massive thing.

00:14:51.000 If you drive out to Lake Pleasant, you'll see it out in the distance.

00:14:54.000 But what I've been told by people in the space is that, yeah, we can build the facility here, but we don't have the tech talent.

00:15:01.000 We don't have the same type of people.

00:15:05.000 Unique about Taiwanese people that seem to be uniquely gifted at making these chips. 1.00

00:15:09.000 They don't have social lives, they don't take time off.

00:15:13.000 They just make chips all day long.

00:15:15.000 And it's hard to replicate that type of technology and that production capacity domestically here in the United States.

00:15:21.000 So while we do have some chip making abilities in the United States, it doesn't match Taiwan's.

00:15:27.000 Taiwan's has the top, top chips.

00:15:29.000 So now it complicates everything, which now it makes a lot of sense why China is putting maximal pressure on this particular fault line.

00:15:37.000 So here's the big stakes.

00:15:39.000 We'll boil it down for you just like this.

00:15:42.000 China is probably willing to help us with Iran if we're willing to change our diplomatic posture to Taiwan.

00:15:49.000 And I don't think we're willing or ready to do that just yet.

00:15:55.000 Charlie used to talk a lot about Angel Studios and what they were building.

00:15:59.000 And as you know, I've been a longtime fan of it for the same reason.

00:16:02.000 So I wanted to share some of my favorite films and shows on Angel, and I put them all into one easy to use watch list.

00:16:08.000 This is content that's actually worth your time, not just noise or recycled talking points, but stories that go a level deeper and ask better questions.

00:16:16.000 That's what stands out about Angel to me.

00:16:18.000 They're willing to put out films and documentaries that don't just follow the usual script.

00:16:22.000 Especially when it comes to politics, culture, and the bigger conversations you and I should be having.

00:16:27.000 So, on my watch list, you'll find picks that lean into those topics.

00:16:31.000 But there are also solid options for family or just something meaningful to watch at the end of a stressful day.

00:16:36.000 If you want to check it out, go to angel.comslash Charlie and take a look at the watch list I put together.

00:16:44.000 Joining us now is Rich Barris, Big Data Poll.

00:16:48.000 And he's the author of a new book, by the way, called Burn It Down What the Polls Say Young Americans Really Want.

00:16:56.000 Welcome back to the show, Rich.

00:16:58.000 Oh, pull of a book shout out, brother.

00:17:00.000 Thanks for that.

00:17:01.000 Thanks for having me, as always.

00:17:01.000 Of course, David.

00:17:03.000 People definitely should go out and buy that book, Andrew.

00:17:03.000 Yeah.

00:17:06.000 I, you know, I was inspired to, you know, promo your book, Rich, because I just saw your tweet where you're talking about books on China and war and conflict that people should be reviewing.

00:17:17.000 It almost looked like you were attacking me, but I know better than that, Rich.

00:17:21.000 We're just about to have you on the show.

00:17:21.000 No.

00:17:23.000 I knew you fired it off quickly, but you're absolutely right.

00:17:26.000 People need to get educated on the history of war.

00:17:29.000 I'm going to play this clip because I haven't.

00:17:31.000 This is a. 0.52

00:17:32.000 Zhi on the Thucydides Trap, 19. 0.64

00:17:36.000 The whole world is watching our meeting.

00:17:42.000 Currently, transformation not seen in a century is accelerating across the globe, and the international situation is fluid and turbulent.

00:17:52.000 The world has come to a new crossroads.

00:17:55.000 Can China and the United States overcome the Thucydides Trap and create a new paradigm of major country relations?

00:18:08.000 Can we meet global challenges together and provide more stability for the world?

00:18:14.000 All right, so, Rich, before we get on to this CIA story that I gotta cover, what's your take on what you're watching?

00:18:22.000 Well, I about fell out when I heard that.

00:18:24.000 That's not good to hear that.

00:18:26.000 And for people who don't know what it is, Graham Allison popularized the term the Thucydides trap.

00:18:32.000 I actually, on that tweet that you were just referencing, I actually told people to read the origins of.

00:18:37.000 The Origins of Major War by Dale Copeland, who wrote before Graham did.

00:18:43.000 But the bottom line is it speaks to an emerging power, the situation in the international system.

00:18:49.000 When an emerging power rises to replace and displace the existing hegemon.

00:18:56.000 And Graham looked at 16 case studies.

00:18:58.000 Copeland looks at a more modern liberal nation state, which is interesting as well.

00:19:04.000 But it usually leads to great power conflict.

00:19:08.000 For Xi Jinping to say that out loud is bad.

00:19:12.000 It's not good because for many, many years, the Chinese have always tried to tell the United States, we're actually not going to do that.

00:19:20.000 We're not interested in that.

00:19:22.000 And this time, what he said is, this is on you.

00:19:25.000 You know, the current situation that we're in right now.

00:19:28.000 He said, can the U.S. avoid the trap?

00:19:32.000 Guys, it's a reference to the Peloponnesian War.

00:19:34.000 This is just, it's exactly, if you're an international relations theorist, It's exactly what you have not wanted to hear for many, many years.

00:19:42.000 Mearsheimer's written about it.

00:19:44.000 E.H. Carr is another one I told people to go read.

00:19:48.000 I mean, I'm over here pitching other books except for my own, right?

00:19:50.000 But it's true.

00:19:51.000 You have to get under, you have to understand why what just came out of his mouth is so important.

00:19:56.000 For many, many years, Americans in the foreign policy blob have tried to tackle an international system that's in their mind and does.

00:20:06.000 Who say this is the way it works, the world works.

00:20:10.000 And then you have liberal internationalists and neocons who have been arguing, no, we're in a post history era and this is something new and we're going to somehow be exempt from the laws of nature.

00:20:21.000 We're going to be exempt from the The laws of the international system and realists who have been right for the last 25, 30 years, more since the end of history, they're taking victory laps one after the other recently.

00:20:35.000 So to hear Xi Jinping say this is bad.

00:20:39.000 It's very bad news.

00:20:40.000 Well, and he did bring it up as early as 2014.

00:20:43.000 And in 2015, he said there is no such thing.

00:20:46.000 But I think what you're getting at here is China is asserting themselves as our equal.

00:20:51.000 They're asserting themselves as our equal.

00:20:54.000 We're Athens, baby.

00:20:55.000 Excuse me.

00:20:56.000 That's what he's saying.

00:20:57.000 And he's basically saying, don't come on our front porch and bully us around because, you know, there's the two of us now and you got to deal with the reality.

00:21:07.000 He has a point. 0.74

00:21:08.000 I mean, it's for a long time, as you said, for a long time, it was China is rising, but don't worry about it.

00:21:14.000 We're not trying to take your stuff.

00:21:17.000 We just want to be rich and powerful.

00:21:19.000 And now, yeah, they are more equal.

00:21:22.000 We should be frank about this.

00:21:23.000 We should not be in denial about this. 0.96

00:21:25.000 If, go look around your house at the things that are in it, chances are, A lot of them were made in China, especially look at anything advanced. 0.97

00:21:32.000 Look at your computers. 0.98

00:21:34.000 Look at the parts in them.

00:21:35.000 They're made in China significantly.

00:21:38.000 If you're worried about military stuff, they can make missiles faster than we can.

00:21:42.000 They can make ships faster than we can.

00:21:43.000 And they got 1.1 billion people working on it.

00:21:46.000 Yeah, they have four times our population.

00:21:49.000 They are an aging population.

00:21:50.000 They do have domestic economic concerns, they have energy concerns.

00:21:54.000 And by the way, we have successfully, under the Trump administration, I would say, blunted their rare earth mineral.

00:22:02.000 Dominance.

00:22:03.000 It still exists.

00:22:04.000 We're not all the way there, but we have made strides in that where they can't choke us off from rare earths like they could.

00:22:10.000 Still got to make more gains there.

00:22:11.000 So it's both.

00:22:13.000 And I think President Trump is a realist.

00:22:15.000 I think we need to be frank about it.

00:22:16.000 What we want out of this is we want them to buy our soybeans like they said they were going to.

00:22:21.000 We want them to fill some of these trade obligations so the farmers are looking at this.

00:22:26.000 We want them to buy Boeing planes.

00:22:28.000 We want them to help get us the uranium out of Iran and then help us open up the Strait of Hormuz. 0.89

00:22:33.000 All these things are doable. 0.91

00:22:35.000 But if the price of admission for all those things is, you got to let us take over Taiwan, that ain't going to happen currently.

00:22:41.000 So we might be at a stalemate.

00:22:43.000 And by the way, I just want to make one final point here before we move on to the CIA story, Rich.

00:22:46.000 This is the first of about three meetings.

00:22:49.000 So don't expect this huge, you know, accords to be reached at this meeting.

00:22:53.000 This is sort of an opening act, all right?

00:22:55.000 Everybody just hold their horses, let this process play out.

00:22:59.000 Let me just play this clip because this happened last night, and I actually tweeted it.

00:23:03.000 And, you know, I've.

00:23:05.000 Yeah, so here we go.

00:23:07.000 I'll play it.

00:23:07.000 This is a breaking news story last night on Jesse Waters.

00:23:11.000 He since deleted it.

00:23:13.000 Sot 20.

00:23:14.000 It's just in, John.

00:23:15.000 The CIA just raided Tulsi Gabbard's office.

00:23:19.000 Agents hauled out dozens of boxes, files on the JFK assassination, and MKUltra, the CIA mind control operation, which she was in the process of declassifying.

00:23:30.000 All right, so this was obviously, I mean, the tweet, when I tweeted it, I'm not trying to.

00:23:36.000 Mention my Twitter or something here, but it went viral really quickly.

00:23:41.000 It's since been community noted, but I got contacted by friends.

00:23:43.000 They were like, hey, here's a new statement from DNI spokesman, spokeswoman Olivia Coleman said this is false.

00:23:50.000 The CIA did not raid DNI's office.

00:23:53.000 And then essentially, a lot of this originated with Congresswoman Anapolina Luna, who was scheduled to come on this show today, but then had to cancel because she is actually at the CIA.

00:24:06.000 I guess she's meeting with the CIA currently.

00:24:08.000 She's tweeted that out.

00:24:09.000 That's public.

00:24:10.000 So the point is, she had gone on with Katie Pavlich on News Nation talking about this.

00:24:16.000 Not raid, now that we're told.

00:24:18.000 And actually, it sounds like the CIA took these boxes a while ago.

00:24:23.000 It was not a raid.

00:24:24.000 The DNI sort of oversees all the intel agencies.

00:24:27.000 So none of it made sense, actually, when you kind of break it down.

00:24:30.000 She could just tell them to not do that.

00:24:32.000 In theory, she could just, yeah, Tulsi Gabbard should have just been able to say, you can't take these boxes.

00:24:37.000 So something else, obviously, was going on.

00:24:40.000 I'm being told this didn't happen the way that it was originally reported.

00:24:44.000 And as I mentioned, Jesse Waters has taken down.

00:24:47.000 His show's tweet, and I think he just got out over his skis.

00:24:52.000 This does seem related to some of the testimony that we heard yesterday regarding Anthony Fauci.

00:24:58.000 I think the CIA is not happy about this quote unquote whistleblower.

00:25:01.000 There's a lot of disagreement about the nature of this person who testified.

00:25:05.000 Rich, tell us what you know.

00:25:07.000 Look, here's what I know, all right, outside of what you just said, which is the same thing I'm hearing.

00:25:12.000 However, Andrew, you know what bothers me?

00:25:15.000 You always look like with the CIA, there's always this like, Little caveat in the back of my mind because there have been these identical stories and they have played out very similar in the past, only to later find out that everybody kind of circled the wagons and came together and said, Oh, it's not really like that, but then it was, right?

00:25:35.000 So I'm always, you know, I'm glad.

00:25:39.000 Something's going on, Rich.

00:25:40.000 I agree with you.

00:25:41.000 Something's going on.

00:25:42.000 They went and took these MK Ultra boxes and the JFK assassination files.

00:25:47.000 It should all just be released.

00:25:49.000 It should be released.

00:25:50.000 President Trump has ordered it.

00:25:52.000 To be released.

00:25:52.000 So, what is the delay?

00:25:54.000 I completely agree.

00:25:55.000 But there's obviously some sort of disagreement, and everybody's saying, whoa, let's not blow this up into some huge major national news story.

00:26:02.000 It's a little too late for that.

00:26:04.000 Because I agree with you, Rich.

00:26:07.000 Something weird is happening.

00:26:08.000 If something in your country is secret for more than 60 years and they can't release it, you don't live in a normal democracy.

00:26:14.000 Just to put a final point on the CIA story, Rich.

00:26:18.000 So, Rep. Anapolina Luna says, heading to the CIA with Rep. Eric Burleson to see the files in question taken from ODNI.

00:26:27.000 So, again, apparently these files were taken a while ago.

00:26:31.000 She was tweeting last night that they were saying you have to preserve these documents.

00:26:36.000 They've been ordered, released, and declassified.

00:26:39.000 And to her credit, she never said that there was a raid.

00:26:42.000 If you watch the clip back, the original clip in question from Katie Pavlich, she said that they were taken.

00:26:49.000 And it made it seem like they were taken yesterday and it was a big to do.

00:26:54.000 Apparently, this was a more orderly process.

00:26:57.000 She's contesting that people are misrepresenting what she said.

00:27:01.000 So I just want to make a final point on that.

00:27:04.000 It sounds like something weird's going on, but to be fair to Congresswoman Ana Polina Luna, she didn't say there was a raid.

00:27:11.000 Yeah, I just want to say a couple of things.

00:27:14.000 One is the CIA has done this before.

00:27:17.000 They didn't kick in Dianne Feinstein's office door either, but we found out later that they did break in and take a bunch of stuff that was related to her investigation into torture or enhanced interrogation, right?

00:27:28.000 And so we've seen this.

00:27:30.000 I'm sure they weren't taken last night.

00:27:31.000 I'm sure they were taken the moment Donald Trump signed that order or they got wind that he was going to sign that order.

00:27:36.000 I mean, this is what I suspect, like in the back of my mind, I suspect.

00:27:39.000 And here, I often say that the Republican women in Congress have the bigger, you know, than Republican men. 0.76

00:27:46.000 They have the spine. 0.99

00:27:47.000 They fight.

00:27:48.000 And I'll be honest, I trust Representative Luna.

00:27:51.000 I do.

00:27:52.000 I also trust D.I. Gabbard.

00:27:53.000 I do.

00:27:54.000 But the problem is, Luna's a representative.

00:27:57.000 Gabbard is the head of an intelligence.

00:28:00.000 And you know, it's no secret the people's pundit loves him some Gabbard.

00:28:03.000 All right.

00:28:04.000 So I'm not saying that she's like covering for anything here, but there is a bit of a song and dance that happens. 0.98

00:28:09.000 Well, she has to play within the system that she exists in.

00:28:11.000 That's right.

00:28:12.000 Yeah, and if she's coming through like knocking the CIA, that's not going to be taken well, and she's not going to be long for the DC world.

00:28:20.000 So she's got to play the game.

00:28:21.000 We understand that.

00:28:23.000 But something's going on here.

00:28:24.000 And just one other point on the MKUltra files most of these were destroyed.

00:28:28.000 There's an estimated 15% of those files that are still in existence.

00:28:33.000 This is what she, DNI Gabbard, is tasked with declassifying. 0.66

00:28:37.000 And obviously, MKUltra was a brainwashing.

00:28:42.000 Tactics that were experimented on by the Intel community in San Francisco, in villages in Europe, you know, where they laced the bakery with LSD.

00:28:53.000 I mean, it's all kinds of crazy stuff.

00:28:56.000 And, you know, the American people do deserve to get clarity on what our Intel operatives were actually doing.

00:29:01.000 So we want to see these things get declassified and released.

00:29:04.000 So we support Congresswoman Luna's efforts there to get them released.

00:29:10.000 Rich, I want to pivot here a little bit and go to this Massey.

00:29:16.000 Race in Kentucky that is coming down to the final stretch, this primary.

00:29:22.000 There's been polls released that show Massey down.

00:29:25.000 There's at even.

00:29:28.000 What are you seeing in your polling and what do you expect to take place here?

00:29:33.000 Well, you know, I don't want to blow the markets up here, you know, like we saw happen with the poll the other day.

00:29:38.000 And I think the markets corrected because I'm going to defend him.

00:29:42.000 Look, this is a difficult race to poll. 0.99

00:29:44.000 A lot of people, when they get into these GOP primary races, the They weight boomers so much, Andrew. 0.99

00:29:50.000 And this is a great race that underscores burn it down, what I'm arguing with Joshua in burn it down, which is that the GOP is a real danger here. 0.95

00:29:59.000 They're governing, they were not elected by a coalition of boomers, and they're governing for a certain kind of boomer and even silent gen. When in 10 years, I mean, the first boomers turn 80 this year, guys. 0.87

00:30:10.000 This electorate is going to dramatically change. 0.77

00:30:13.000 One thing we have over China is a robust millennial gen block that they do not have. 0.63

00:30:18.000 They will be the dominant voting group in the not too distant future. 1.00

00:30:23.000 And to just ignore their wishes the way we have has been stupidity. 0.99

00:30:26.000 I'm sorry. 1.00

00:30:27.000 But Massey's race is a great example of this. 0.99

00:30:29.000 Millennials are going for Massey three to one, not two to one, not two and a half to one, three to one.

00:30:36.000 And so when you're deciding as a pollster, do I trust randomization here?

00:30:41.000 Am I underestimating how much younger voting cohorts will make up of the electorate, or do I not?

00:30:47.000 And in the case of that one poll, he didn't.

00:30:50.000 The problem is, and I've tried to warn other pollsters, Kentucky Four is not a boomer.

00:30:56.000 It's traditionally they're about 36 38% of a competitive primary electorate.

00:30:56.000 District.

00:31:02.000 That's it.

00:31:03.000 And typically 18 to 29, they could be 8 10%.

00:31:07.000 In our last poll, we only had them at 6 and Massey was still ahead. 0.73

00:31:11.000 What will be key is what the 45 to 64 do.

00:31:15.000 I'm not going to want to give away too much yet, but Massey has a slight lead with them.

00:31:19.000 Galrin leads with 65 plus.

00:31:21.000 And it really will come down to how much of the 44 and under show.

00:31:25.000 Here's why, again, I would caution people be careful of what you're looking at.

00:31:29.000 There is no registration growth whatsoever in the 65 plus category.

00:31:34.000 In fact, it's been net negative.

00:31:36.000 45 to 64 is a little bit, so their potential for elasticity when you're modeling the electorate, it's there.

00:31:42.000 It's not huge.

00:31:43.000 All of the elasticity and uncertainty comes from 44 below, and the reason is because literally that's where all of the new registration growth is, particularly among those who are 30 to 44 and have families.

00:31:56.000 And what does that mean?

00:31:57.000 Why does that matter?

00:31:58.000 Because when you have families, your primary vote history becomes more robust than it was before you had a family.

00:32:03.000 It's really interesting.

00:32:05.000 I just caution some of the other pollsters out there.

00:32:07.000 Be careful because what's going to happen is you may not have given these people enough time.

00:32:12.000 It's literally that they're just, they didn't have enough time to build that robust vote history.

00:32:16.000 So when you're deciding who you want to model in your poll, if you wait them out, you're going to end up like pollsters in 2016 who waited out Trump's.

00:32:23.000 So I don't know what you think of Qantas, but it's very close.

00:32:28.000 Yeah, it's very close.

00:32:29.000 Qantas, 908 respondents, 48.3% for Galrin, 43% for.

00:32:38.000 Uh, Massey, 8% undecided.

00:32:40.000 The 69 respondents who were undecided, 52.2% of them, uh, uh, backed Galrin and 20.3%, uh, because of the age.

00:32:50.000 It's because of the age.

00:32:51.000 So that, that's one that just came out minutes ago from The Hill.

00:32:55.000 Um, so it's a tight race.

00:32:56.000 It was done, it was done the days ago.

00:32:59.000 This is what I want to try to explain to people.

00:33:01.000 And we actually did see a period where there was a little bit of response bias going on with younger, uh, younger cohorts.

00:33:08.000 So if you're only, Andrew, if you have to wait up because you didn't talk to enough of them, it creates more uncertainty in your polling.

00:33:15.000 We actually have to wait.

00:33:16.000 Call it, Rich.

00:33:17.000 Call it, Rich. 0.90

00:33:18.000 Who do you think is going to pull out the primary?

00:33:19.000 Well, the poll will be out tomorrow.

00:33:21.000 And then we'll do two updates when the early vote comes in to show them.

00:33:24.000 Listen, I think, Matt, if I say it, I'm literally going to move things before I should.

00:33:29.000 So I'm just.

00:33:30.000 I already heard it.

00:33:32.000 There was an M there, Rich.

00:33:34.000 It's very close.

00:33:36.000 It's very close.

00:33:37.000 All right.

00:33:38.000 We're going to see what happens.

00:33:39.000 We got 30 seconds left, Rich.

00:33:39.000 Okay.

00:33:41.000 Cornyn, Paxton, Texas.

00:33:42.000 What are you seeing?

00:33:43.000 30 seconds.

00:33:44.000 Quick.

00:33:44.000 If Republicans nominate Cornyn, they risk huge depression in November.

00:33:49.000 There's like 30%, 28% of their GOP primary electorate is telling us they won't even bother to show up if John Cornyn is nominated.

00:33:56.000 He has a cap.

00:33:57.000 He has more consistent mail in voters that back him, but he does have a cap.

00:34:02.000 And we've even pulled this, like, what if Trump endorsed Cornyn?

00:34:05.000 And you know what happens?

00:34:06.000 He goes from 46 to 47.

00:34:08.000 The guy's got a cap.

00:34:09.000 So the only way Paxton loses is if his voters don't show up.

00:34:13.000 Paxton's going to win that, wouldn't you say?

00:34:15.000 I think he's got the edge, yes.

00:34:16.000 Absolutely.

00:34:17.000 Rich Barris, burn it down.

00:34:19.000 Check out his book, What Young Voters Really Want.

00:34:21.000 Rich Barris, thank you, my friend.

00:34:22.000 We'll see you again soon.

00:34:24.000 All the best, brother.

00:34:27.000 Hey, everyone.

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00:37:01.000 Another story that is making massive headlines is.

00:37:06.000 About Sharia law, the Islamification of the United States of America.

00:37:09.000 There was a big hearing in D.C. yesterday that the clips were everywhere.

00:37:15.000 I don't know if you guys saw them. 0.80

00:37:16.000 It was the Sharia Free America Why Political Islam and Sharia Law Are Incompatible with the U.S. Constitution. 0.82

00:37:21.000 This was part two of these hearings that was held yesterday.

00:37:26.000 And Chip Roy was leading the charge.

00:37:27.000 He joins us now.

00:37:29.000 Congressman, welcome back to the show.

00:37:31.000 Hope you're well.

00:37:31.000 Great to be with you guys.

00:37:33.000 Doing great, sir.

00:37:37.000 Congressman, and there was just so much going on.

00:37:40.000 You were there, you were making some great points.

00:37:44.000 Brandon Gill was there.

00:37:45.000 This great young kid, Hunter Lopez, who then gets lectured by Jamie Raskin.

00:37:51.000 I want to get into that in a second.

00:37:53.000 There was the Texas Public Policy Foundation's Eamon Blair, Rare Foundation's USA founder, Amy Meckelberg.

00:38:01.000 You pulled out all the stops here, Congressman.

00:38:04.000 Tell us what you guys were doing and why it was so important.

00:38:07.000 Well, this goes back to, and again, I don't like doing this, except you guys appreciate it. 1.00

00:38:13.000 The last conversation I have with Charlie was about Islam. 1.00

00:38:16.000 And Charlie was one of the few people willing to say what needed to be said, which is that Islam is incompatible with Western civilization. 0.76

00:38:24.000 So the purpose of these hearings is not just to sit there in the minutiae of the law, which is important, obviously, as someone who wants to be the attorney general of Texas. 0.95

00:38:33.000 I'm dramatically concerned about Sharia law and what it means for young women. 0.98

00:38:38.000 What it means for equal protection under the 14th Amendment to the Constitution, what it means with arbitration agreements that end run our laws and undermine our civilization for people that are subjugated under Islam. 0.96

00:38:51.000 But importantly, it's to elevate this and to highlight the truth. 0.99

00:38:55.000 We've imported about five and a half million people from majority Muslim countries since 9 11.

00:39:01.000 That does not count the millions of Muslims that we've imported from non majority countries.

00:39:06.000 It doesn't count the additional people that came in as family members.

00:39:10.000 It does not count the children that have been.

00:39:13.000 You know, born in the United States to people that came here were naturalized or have visas. 0.56

00:39:19.000 So, we have an exploding population of people who have no desire to assimilate or join the melting pot, but instead are in fact called, as Amy testified to, and as Eamon Blair testified to, that are called to wage jihad against the West.

00:39:34.000 And then you pointed out Marco, who did a fantastic job, Hunter Lopez, the 16 year old student in Wiley High School north of Dallas, who basically schooled Jamie Raskin on the issues involving the questions.

00:39:48.000 And I think, by the way, that Marco was quoting Charlie, he didn't say it.

00:39:52.000 Because I remember when Charlie gave a great answer to one of these questions about where God is in the Constitution.

00:39:57.000 And he said, well, God is four times mentioned in the Declaration.

00:40:00.000 And Charlie made the point that our state constitutions, before we created the federal government, all had references to our Christian faith.

00:40:07.000 And Marco was quoting that directly in arguing with Jamie Raskin, a constitutional law professor that was arguably being schooled by Marco.

00:40:17.000 I was proud to chair the hearing.

00:40:18.000 I called the hearing.

00:40:20.000 I got to tell you, it takes a lot of work to get people here in Washington to want to take on Islam because they're afraid of being called Islamophobic.

00:40:26.000 I'm afraid of losing America. 0.76

00:40:28.000 Yeah, well, it was such an important hearing.

00:40:31.000 I want to play this clip.

00:40:33.000 I posted it as well and got great feedback on it.

00:40:36.000 This is Rare Foundation USA founder Amy Meckelberg talking about the brutal truths that, as you said, too many are afraid to mention out loud. 0.87

00:40:46.000 Clip three Islam is a hostile totalitarian political ideology using our freedoms to destroy us. 0.80

00:40:53.000 To every non Muslim, it offers three choices convert, submit, or die. 1.00

00:40:59.000 It does not stop until every court, every school, and every government on earth is under Sharia. 0.94

00:41:05.000 These networks operate more than 8,000 Islamic nonprofits across America, including 650 in Texas alone. 0.81

00:41:12.000 They build the parallel infrastructures mosques, seminaries, schools, Sharia banks, Sharia courts, Sharia clinics, charities, media, and political networks.

00:41:22.000 They have no plans of assimilating.

00:41:25.000 Now, Congressman, a thing that we are hearing about this all the time from our listeners we get a ton of emails about it, we get a ton of calls about it.

00:41:32.000 It obviously fills a lot of people.

00:41:34.000 With dread.

00:41:35.000 But we're also aware we bump up against a core part of America's identity.

00:41:40.000 The First Amendment does guarantee free exercise.

00:41:43.000 How do we both legally and I think rhetorically negotiate that dilemma?

00:41:49.000 That we're aware we do have freedom of religion.

00:41:52.000 We're obviously very wary of curtailing that because we know how the left would love to attack Christian churches.

00:41:58.000 But we're also aware this is not a suicide pact.

00:42:02.000 This is not an amendment that makes us just. 0.70

00:42:05.000 Turn our country into a part of the caliphate. 0.85

00:42:07.000 How do you negotiate that problem? 0.88

00:42:10.000 Number one, the federal government has to stop importing millions of people from countries where we know they adhere to this ideology and it is a political ideology.

00:42:20.000 And we need to stop doing it. 0.66

00:42:22.000 Let's freeze immigration broadly, like I suggested under my PAWS Act. 1.00

00:42:26.000 Let's reform our entire system from top to bottom. 0.99

00:42:29.000 That's number one. 0.99

00:42:30.000 Number two, we've got to have smart lawyers.

00:42:33.000 And obviously, I'm running to be attorney general of Texas who will go into court and win cases and make the point.

00:42:39.000 That this is, in fact, a political ideology with political goals and motives.

00:42:44.000 Their own imams say it.

00:42:46.000 We've got plenty of video, plenty of evidence. 0.90

00:42:49.000 We have memoranda from the Muslim Brotherhood. 0.95

00:42:51.000 We have an entire plan laid out by individuals and organizations, the hundreds of organizations that are well funded to drive this agenda to politically undermine the United States. 0.99

00:43:02.000 We have to call that out for what it is.

00:43:05.000 And thirdly, you've got to be able to continue to fight and win on grounds that are, I think, more legalistic.

00:43:11.000 About how these things are being developed, Deceptive Trade Practices Act and so forth, like Epic City and so forth.

00:43:16.000 But the biggest thing we have to do is to acknowledge that we are, in fact, a Christian nation built on Judeo Christian principles.

00:43:23.000 And that while we are very defensive and we should be and must be of the First Amendment, we all believe that the government can't come in and tell you, you got to be in church on Sunday or you got to pay this tax or you got to believe this thing.

00:43:36.000 None of us would want that.

00:43:38.000 But, but we are, in fact, a nation that was bound together by a set of ideals.

00:43:45.000 And at the core of it all, All was our Christian faith.

00:43:49.000 And if we don't acknowledge that, if we don't remember that it says in God we trust above the speaker's chair in the House chamber, that Moses is on the backside of the House chamber looking over us, that we've got the Ten Commandments on the front of the United States Supreme Court, that we absolutely had references to our Creator and to God four times in the Declaration of Independence, and that our founding was built on that, you know, our founders were very,

00:44:13.000 very open about how much our faith was necessary for this country to work.

00:44:19.000 It is the glue that holds us together.

00:44:21.000 And the reason our country is fraying is because we're moving away from our bound faith.

00:44:27.000 And number two, we're throwing federalism out the door.

00:44:30.000 You cannot have 330 million people peacefully coexisting when you have conflicting values and faith and when you don't allow local people to make decisions that are best for them under the Constitution.

00:44:41.000 So these are the things I'm trying to fight to do up here.

00:44:44.000 I'm going to play this clip from Charlie, Congressman and future Attorney General.

00:44:49.000 SOT 23.

00:44:50.000 The spiritual battle is coming to the West. 0.64

00:44:53.000 And the enemies are wokeism or Marxism combining with Islamism to go after what we call the American way of life. 0.80

00:45:01.000 And the American way of life is very simple. 1.00

00:45:03.000 I want to be able to get married, buy a home, have kids, allow them to ride their bike till the sun goes down, send them to a good school, have a low crime neighborhood, not to have my kid be taught the lesbian, gay, transgender garbage in their school. 1.00

00:45:21.000 While also, while also, Not having them have to hear the Muslim call to prayer five times a day. 1.00

00:45:30.000 That's important.

00:45:33.000 We want the American way of life, which is, by the way, Christendom.

00:45:38.000 Amen.

00:45:40.000 I never did get him to get Christendom right.

00:45:42.000 Yeah, it gives me chills listening to him because it was so clear, it was so morally clear.

00:45:46.000 And so, Congressman, you're running for Attorney General in Texas.

00:45:50.000 I've heard from a variety of sources that say that the ads going back and forth, it's like, well, I'm more pro.

00:45:57.000 Or this guy's more pro Islam and that guy's pro.

00:45:59.000 And so it's become very central to what's happening in the primaries right now in Texas.

00:46:05.000 Why do you think that is?

00:46:06.000 I mean, is it just a visceral reaction that Texans are experiencing walking their neighborhoods? 0.93

00:46:12.000 There's just a very visible increase in mosques, in the Muslim population. 1.00

00:46:17.000 What's going on here? 0.98

00:46:18.000 Well, it's an important question.

00:46:20.000 And I really appreciate that quote from Charlie or that clip because he says it with such moral clarity, like you said.

00:46:27.000 And what we're seeing in Texas is 300.

00:46:29.000 130 mosques, more mosques being built in Texas than every day than any other state in the union. 0.97

00:46:35.000 We've seen a massive explosion in the Dallas Fort Worth Metroplex in particular, all by design by the Muslim Brotherhood and its offshoots and its various organizations. 0.99

00:46:45.000 And I have to tell you guys that, you know, there are a number of reasons that I'm running for attorney general, not the least of which is my family and the ability to be a husband and father back in Texas rather than traveling back and forth to DC. 1.00

00:46:56.000 But the biggest professional reason is my commitment to what Charlie just said.

00:47:01.000 And why this issue of stopping the March of Islam is critical to preserving Texas, the crown jewel in the American Republic.

00:47:09.000 If we lose Texas, we lose the nation.

00:47:11.000 And right now, we're on a path where Texas is in trouble.

00:47:15.000 And we've got to stand up and protect that American way of life that Charlie just said.

00:47:18.000 And so I'm talking about it, but I'm not just talking about it.

00:47:22.000 I'm doing something about it. 1.00

00:47:24.000 I'm holding hearings where I declare affirmatively that Islam is incompatible with the West. 0.99

00:47:29.000 And it's not going unnoticed by CARE and a bunch of those that have concerns. 0.99

00:47:34.000 But importantly, my opponent has never practiced law.

00:47:38.000 And I'm not going to get into it too much.

00:47:40.000 I don't like to get personal, but you have to know what you're doing, right?

00:47:44.000 I've run the attorney general's office.

00:47:46.000 I've been a federal prosecutor.

00:47:47.000 I've been a constitutional lawyer.

00:47:49.000 I've been the chairman of the Constitution Subcommittee in Washington and Congress.

00:47:53.000 You have to know what you're doing. 0.99

00:47:54.000 My opponent introduced legislation last year in the name of religious liberty that would have made it easier for mosques to create Epic City and to create these massive housing enclaves and communities that are Sharia compliant and Islam centric. 0.99

00:48:08.000 You've got to be ready for the battle. 0.99

00:48:11.000 We are at a point in our history where we're at war, and you have to acknowledge the war if you want to win it.

00:48:17.000 So, those of us who have been in there taking the arrows, fighting the good fight every day, that's who you want in leadership positions like the attorney general.

00:48:25.000 The most important legal job in the nation for conservatives is attorney general of Texas, particularly if we don't have control of the administration.

00:48:33.000 You've got to have someone there who can fight. 0.54

00:48:35.000 And this issue of Islam is front and center. 0.68

00:48:37.000 There are other things, securing the border, dealing with criminals on the streets. 0.64

00:48:41.000 Charlie just rattled off in that clip the Marxists, the woke brigade that are all out trying to target our state.

00:48:47.000 All of those things are attacking Texas.

00:48:50.000 We've got to deal with those.

00:48:51.000 And one last point are the corporatists who are trying to come in and they buy up our land and they put data centers in every corner.

00:48:58.000 They want to say, oh, don't have state standards on the AI.

00:49:01.000 We'll have one big federal standard and we'll preempt states.

00:49:04.000 No, we're going to allow the people to be able to defend our kids from the march of the corporatists as well as the Islamists as well as the Marxists. 0.79

00:49:13.000 Yeah, it kind of underscores Blake's earlier point that we're up against this religious liberty concept that is central to the American value system.

00:49:22.000 We obviously, our founders created that thinking about, you know, Presbyterian and Anglican and Quakers.

00:49:28.000 They weren't thinking about how do we overcome these fundamental religious divides.

00:49:32.000 And so, you've got to your point if you're going to fight this on a legal front, Congressman, you have to understand the law.

00:49:32.000 Exactly.

00:49:41.000 You have to be able to be creative.

00:49:42.000 You have to find workarounds.

00:49:44.000 You have to be able to exert influence, power politically, socially, culturally in ways that don't undermine our system.

00:49:52.000 But that preserves it.

00:49:54.000 And so you have to understand the technicalities of the law, what you can win on, what you can bring suits on.

00:49:59.000 And so, to your point, that is so critical to being able to fight this fight.

00:50:05.000 And by the way, you mentioned the corporatist.

00:50:07.000 Last time, I think maybe I mentioned this to you that I flew into Dallas.

00:50:11.000 I actually drove three hours up to Oklahoma, and it was like one farm after the other getting just like demolished.

00:50:19.000 And just like it was, it was, candidly, it was really gross to me because it's just all these like crappy homes that are being put up in the Beautiful farmland.

00:50:26.000 I'm not anti growth, but man, there are forces at Texas that are like ripping out the heart and soul of the people that made Texas Texas.

00:50:35.000 And there's got to be a balance here somewhere because it's just happening so rapidly.

00:50:40.000 Well, 100%.

00:50:41.000 And I'll bring up a point that's directly related.

00:50:44.000 There's a PAC in California that ran a million dollars of ads against me in the first primary, and now they're running hundreds of thousands more now with the stated objective of killing my political career, which, by the way, My life isn't going to be defined in winning or losing an election.

00:50:59.000 My life is defined in my faith in Christ and my family and serving my country wherever God puts me.

00:51:04.000 I'm putting myself out there to be attorney general because I think I'm the best man for the job.

00:51:08.000 But this PAC wants to take me out because I was successful in delivering for President Trump repeal of half of the Green New Scam subsidies a year ago.

00:51:16.000 I had to threaten taking down the big, beautiful bill for a few days to get it, but we got it done.

00:51:21.000 And so now they want to take me out.

00:51:22.000 Now, why does that matter? 0.83

00:51:24.000 Because all of these corporate cronies that are taking government money, they're using it to buy up land to put up solar panels and wind farms.

00:51:30.000 They want to use similar kinds of things to go put the data centers in place, all without regard to the homes that people built over centuries in this country, who built communities, who built up farms.

00:51:42.000 And I get, I'm with you.

00:51:44.000 I'll say it the same way as you did.

00:51:45.000 I'm not saying I don't want growth.

00:51:47.000 I'm not saying I don't want affordable houses.

00:51:48.000 And I'm not saying you can't sell a farm that's in close to Dallas that you can then go build houses on.

00:51:53.000 What I'm saying is what you're saying we need to protect this great nation, this great state.

00:51:59.000 We need to be thoughtful about how we're doing it.

00:52:01.000 We've got to be mindful about having good technologies and good input from local government and citizens so they don't have a bright light in their night sky in a small Texas town and their water isn't getting sucked out and their grid isn't getting drained while their price of electricity goes up.

00:52:15.000 Also, corporations can make a lot of money with a quick sale of private equity in New York.

00:52:19.000 Yeah, that's exactly right.

00:52:20.000 There has to be a balance here.

00:52:22.000 And by the way, I actually love the idea of taking dilapidated land or old malls and using that land.

00:52:22.000 Yeah.

00:52:29.000 You know, but that, yeah, reuse some of the underserved, underutilized land that we already have.

00:52:35.000 Support Chip Roy for Attorney General.

00:52:37.000 He's the man for the job.

00:52:39.000 Congressman, it's great to see you.

00:52:40.000 We'll have you on again soon.

00:52:41.000 God bless you.

00:52:42.000 Thanks, guys.

00:52:42.000 God bless you, guys.

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00:53:51.000 All right, our next guest is a guy that we just had on recently, but he was so good.

00:53:56.000 Breaking down the numbers when it came down to comes up with our midterms, that I wanted to have him on again because there's been a lot of news that's been going on with the redistricting fight after the Supreme Court ruling relative to the state of Louisiana and how that would impact all the rest of the states.

00:54:13.000 Annoying news.

00:54:14.000 Annoying news.

00:54:15.000 Ryan James Gerdusky joins us now.

00:54:18.000 He's got his bio, it's too long.

00:54:20.000 I'm not even going to get into it.

00:54:22.000 Not this time.

00:54:23.000 Maybe on the other side of the break.

00:54:24.000 It's too much.

00:54:24.000 It's just too much.

00:54:25.000 Yeah, it's fine.

00:54:27.000 He hosts a show.

00:54:28.000 He's got multiple packs, he's got a Substack.

00:54:32.000 Ryan, give us the latest news on the redistricting fights because it was looking like we were going to run the table here and we've had some setbacks.

00:54:40.000 Well, I actually did a whole episode of this for my podcast, A Numbers Game on iHeartRadio.

00:54:45.000 Here's what happened.

00:54:47.000 So in South Carolina, five Republican state senators joined all the Democrats to block the redistricting effort in South Carolina.

00:54:53.000 So right now, Jim Claiborne's seat is safe for him.

00:54:58.000 The governor said he's going to bring it to a special session, which would redistrict that one seat in South Carolina.

00:55:03.000 The governors over in Louisiana and Alabama, however, are leaving Democrats with one seat each as of now.

00:55:10.000 Kay Ivey has been very adamant behind the scenes, I've been hearing that she wants to protect one of the Democratic seats, the black majority seat in Alabama seven.

00:55:19.000 Over in Louisiana, the governor of Louisiana is seemingly trying to settle political scores because certain people who he's not very friendly with are not getting the seat or not creating a seat that they could possibly run in.

00:55:33.000 So, That's over in Louisiana.

00:55:35.000 So that would be still a net positive of two seats.

00:55:38.000 Florida, obviously, they just changed four seats, but it's in the middle of a heated legal battle.

00:55:43.000 Tennessee did redistrict their one seat.

00:55:44.000 It is also in a legal battle, but that's likely to be in favor of Republicans.

00:55:49.000 And Maryland has said they're going to open the door to redistricting the one Republican seat in Maryland and Andy Harris's seat.

00:55:56.000 So Republicans really kind of dropped the ball over in Alabama and Louisiana.

00:56:00.000 Oh, and I forgot Mississippi.

00:56:02.000 They announced that they are not redistricting this year.

00:56:04.000 They're going to redistrict next year.

00:56:05.000 So that'd be for 2028.

00:56:06.000 That's the lone Democrat seat.

00:56:08.000 There for Benny Thomas.

00:56:10.000 Governor Brian Kemp surprised everybody saying he will redistrict.

00:56:14.000 I'm going to bet that's probably also going to be another one seat, but that's also in 2028.

00:56:18.000 So, for as 2026 goes, you have one seat in Tennessee, a possibility in South Carolina, and two out of Louisiana and Alabama, but it's a net positive three instead of many, many more that people expected.

00:56:30.000 What's a little unfortunate?

00:56:35.000 I got to say, it's frustrating to be a part of a political movement.

00:56:40.000 That you have to share with a bunch of like Southern country club Republicans that don't understand what's at stake here.

00:56:47.000 Give us the overall math here, Ryan.

00:56:50.000 What, where, where do you see the numbers?

00:56:53.000 So if you had to go Republican strong seats, Democrat strong seats, and toss ups, where does this leave us now?

00:56:59.000 I think Republicans probably have a two, if South Carolina does get their redistricting done, which I think they will, the governor seems pretty strong about it, they'll probably be about 210 Republican likely seats and about a 200 and, Maybe seven or eight Democratic seats, and then maybe about 2019 leaning independence, not independent, but toss up seats.

00:57:23.000 It depends on what you classify as a toss up.

00:57:24.000 Definitely the seat in Florida probably is more of a toss up, the Deputy Watson and Schultz seat, even though it's now leaning Republican.

00:57:30.000 The seat over in North Carolina, where the incumbent congressman has had those allegations of misconduct with a staffer, that could be a toss up eventually.

00:57:41.000 Maine's second is a very big one.

00:57:43.000 Third congressional district, which is the one that's a sleeper race, that's a Trump plus five seat out of Long Island, the former George Santos seat.

00:57:50.000 A guy named Mike LaPetri is running there, a very strong campaign against Tom Swazi.

00:57:53.000 The Marcy captor seat's very important over in Ohio.

00:57:57.000 So, overall, Republicans need to probably win half of all the toss up seats to maintain the House majority, which is much better position they were in even just a few months ago.

00:58:07.000 So, how many?

00:58:09.000 One final question I'm gonna throw to Blake.

00:58:10.000 How many seats are we leaving on the board here?

00:58:15.000 Because of the inaction or the failure to act of these southern states?

00:58:19.000 How many do we lose?

00:58:21.000 At least three.

00:58:22.000 That's out of my head. 0.99

00:58:23.000 One in Mississippi, which will come.

00:58:25.000 Sorry. 0.75

00:58:25.000 Oh, sorry. 0.75

00:58:25.000 More than that. 0.75

00:58:26.000 Five.

00:58:27.000 Two in Georgia, one in Mississippi, one in Louisiana, one in Alabama.

00:58:30.000 The Louisiana, Alabama ones are the most egregious ones because the courts just gave them the light, the game the okay.

00:58:37.000 Mississippi is hard.

00:58:38.000 They already had their primary.

00:58:40.000 So that's why they're saying we don't know.

00:58:41.000 Brian Camp is Brian Camp.

00:58:42.000 He's kind of, you know, he does his own thing.

00:58:45.000 But the ones in Louisiana and Alabama, especially Alabama 7th and the one in New Orleans for Louisiana, that is egregious.

00:58:54.000 The Republicans really should have redistricted both those seats to make them Republican seats.

00:58:59.000 So, I guess how much, how likely do you think it is on the basic situation?

00:59:06.000 We're talking a couple seats, a seat here, a seat there.

00:59:09.000 What are the odds this ends up proving decisive for the House itself this fall?

00:59:15.000 Like, what sort of majority are we looking either way?

00:59:18.000 Do you think it's likely to come down to two seats either way?

00:59:21.000 Or do you think this matters much more going forward after this election?

00:59:26.000 Let's say Democrats run the table.

00:59:28.000 Prices stay high, the economy doesn't pick up, people are still mad about AI and a bunch of other things and the war.

00:59:34.000 Hakeem Jeffries will probably have a seven to eight seat majority.

00:59:39.000 So he's basically in the same kind of hell Kevin McCarthy was in, not only just two years ago, where very little can get done.

00:59:47.000 AOC is very empowered, the squad is very empowered.

00:59:50.000 That's kind of the situation they're in.

00:59:52.000 There's just so few toss up seats.

00:59:53.000 We're not looking at a 2018 style election wave anymore.

00:59:57.000 It's just not the way the math works.

00:59:59.000 If Republicans can win half of the seats available to them, they'll probably end up with the same situation they're in right now, which is a one to two seat majority, maybe at most.

01:00:08.000 Maybe they can win a third.

01:00:09.000 Who knows?

01:00:10.000 But there's not a lot.

01:00:12.000 There's really very little wiggle room either which way, unless a party kind of blows it out of the water and seats that are likely Republican flip Democrat or likely Democrat flip Republican.

01:00:23.000 All right.

01:00:23.000 So let's fast forward a little bit, set our sights on the Census 2030.

01:00:31.000 How does the population shift from these blue states into the Sun Belt, primarily a few other states?

01:00:37.000 How does that change the electoral math, Ryan?

01:00:40.000 I mean, basically, going from 2030 to 2040, if Republicans can just hold Florida, Ohio, Georgia, North Carolina, Texas, Arizona, you don't even need Nevada, a Republican will win the presidency every time.

01:00:55.000 They no longer need Pennsylvania, Michigan, or Wisconsin.

01:00:58.000 They no longer need, you know, they don't need Nevada.

01:01:01.000 They don't need New Hampshire.

01:01:02.000 Or Minnesota, or all the lean Democrat states that are just always out of reach, New Mexico.

01:01:07.000 As long as they keep those like six Sun Belt states, they can't lose the presidency.

01:01:13.000 Georgia is obviously going to be very difficult.

01:01:15.000 North Carolina will be very difficult.

01:01:16.000 Those are very small margins that Republicans have won by.

01:01:19.000 So they'll still be important, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, all the rest of them, but they're not essential to win.

01:01:24.000 The only states that are essential to win are the Sun Belt states plus Ohio.

01:01:28.000 Something that comes to mind, maybe you can correct me if I'm wrong, but this increasing, let's call it maximalism about House seats, where you're seeing states.

01:01:37.000 Gerrymander to get as many seats as possible.

01:01:39.000 Is that going to make the census more important?

01:01:42.000 Because I know in the past, the GOP would pick up these seats, but they are often immigrant groups who then you create House seats.

01:01:51.000 And so you might get a Democrat House seat, but a new Republican electoral vote.

01:01:55.000 But now we're just seeing these blue states are shedding a seat that they were going to gerrymander to make blue no matter what.

01:02:03.000 And we're gaining a seat that will probably gerrymander to make red no matter what.

01:02:07.000 And so The census is becoming an even bigger deal now than it was just with the presidential stakes.

01:02:12.000 Yeah, there's obviously some examples where that may not be true.

01:02:15.000 Like if Georgia gets this extra seat, it'll probably be in Atlanta that might be a Democratic seat.

01:02:20.000 You know, if Austin is growing very big and Texas gets four seats, one may be a Democratic seat out of Austin.

01:02:26.000 It will also leave pressure out of the Republican seats not to stretch so thin, so not to have a dummy mander.

01:02:32.000 That could all be possible.

01:02:33.000 But yes, in large part, it is essential because of the 12 seats Democratic states are expected to lose as of right now.

01:02:41.000 I mean, maybe 10 would be automatic Republican seats and add 10 to 210, a number we have right now as a safe Orlean Republican, and you're at 220 and you're at the House majority number.

01:02:53.000 So, you know, California may be able to knock out one more Republican seat.

01:02:57.000 Illinois knock out one more Republican seat. 0.52

01:02:59.000 New York could obviously knock out a bunch.

01:03:01.000 But nonetheless, and yet still, that makes it more important.

01:03:04.000 And another thing that no one's paying attention to, it makes the state legislative elections super important.

01:03:10.000 Republicans have to keep the state senates in, I say legislatures in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania to keep those Republican seats, make sure they don't go in full Democratic hands, and really start competing in other blue states to try to save some Republican seats.

01:03:23.000 Ryan, I'm going to play a clip for you, and we're just going to deal with this.

01:03:26.000 Impending reality.

01:03:28.000 Stop five.

01:03:29.000 When I was talking to the president this morning, it was just before the Oval Office event.

01:03:33.000 He kind of surprised me a little bit because he said, John, I just want to tell you, I'm very serious about this.

01:03:38.000 So you can talk about this.

01:03:40.000 I'm serious about beginning a process to make Venezuela the 51st state.

01:03:46.000 All right, Ryan, break it down for us dead serious.

01:03:50.000 How many electoral votes is Venezuela going to have in the 28th election?

01:03:54.000 And is it a swing state, a blue state, a red state?

01:03:58.000 So, Venezuela would get as many electoral college votes as Texas.

01:04:01.000 Now, I want to remind you, even though we would add two U.S. Senate seats, we would not add any House seats to Congress.

01:04:09.000 They would still have 435 House seats.

01:04:12.000 So, a lot of red and blue states would all lose congressmen to go to Venezuela.

01:04:18.000 So, Venezuela would have 38 congressmen, and they would come from all over the country, including out of red states.

01:04:25.000 So, that's a big, big caveat.

01:04:27.000 How do they vote?

01:04:28.000 That's a big question.

01:04:29.000 So, Venezuelan dysphoria, both in the United States and in Argentina, are the two places I looked at, were big backers of both President Trump and Javier Millay over in Argentina, the libertarian president of Argentina.

01:04:42.000 They are, though, the dysphoria tend to be wealthier than those who live in Venezuela.

01:04:47.000 Venezuela, if it were to become a state, would have one tenth the GDP per capita of the state of New Hampshire. 0.98

01:04:53.000 It would be more than twice as poor, twice as impoverished as American Samoa.

01:05:00.000 It would have an average of $8,900 per year per person in income.

01:05:05.000 So, a generous welfare state is going to sound very alluring to those people.

01:05:10.000 They have not had a free election since they voted for a communist.

01:05:14.000 That being said, maybe they learned their lesson.

01:05:16.000 Who knows?

01:05:17.000 However, there is certainly a very pro communist wing of that country that still exists.

01:05:22.000 So, it is not safe to say that they will vote any which way, given that a lot of people who despise communism have already fled the nation.

01:05:29.000 I was going to say so the big.

01:05:31.000 Thing you got to think about with Venezuela is that the diaspora, as you said, that we see in Florida or Argentina, it's selective. 0.68

01:05:37.000 That's selective.

01:05:38.000 That is not representative of the people that remained.

01:05:41.000 The people that remained are the poorer, less well off.

01:05:45.000 You said they may have learned their lesson, but they may not have learned their lesson.

01:05:50.000 And that is the difficult thing to gauge here is because we haven't had transparency in Venezuela.

01:05:55.000 We have no idea what that electorate is like.

01:05:57.000 We know that there were accusations with Maduro's last election that it was rigged.

01:06:02.000 That his opponent actually won that election and that they rigged the elections in his favor.

01:06:07.000 So maybe they would vote that way.

01:06:09.000 But I mean, do we have any historical precedent?

01:06:13.000 Even under the fair election estimates, Maduro still received 40 something percent of the election.

01:06:19.000 So it wasn't like it was 99 to one, like the fake election results.

01:06:25.000 Maduro has a sizable level of support, maybe one in three people living in Venezuela.

01:06:30.000 I don't know about you, but to get 38 new congressmen and have a third be all squad members.

01:06:36.000 That's not a great deal, especially when you're taking congressmen from Alabama, from Ohio, from Pennsylvania, from Texas, and you're sending them over to Venezuela.

01:06:47.000 Not a really big fan of that idea.

01:06:49.000 Plus, also, I mean, we've had a very tough time securing our own border with Mexico that has a river and mountains.

01:06:55.000 Securing the Venezuelan border from the millions who would easily flock through the jungles into that nation to be counted in this election would be pandemonium.

01:07:06.000 Yeah.

01:07:06.000 And, you know, obviously we're being a little cheeky here.

01:07:09.000 But I think another thing to keep in mind, we have, America has annexed formerly independent countries before.

01:07:15.000 We did it with Texas, we did it with Hawaii.

01:07:17.000 But Hawaii had tremendous immigration from the United States. 0.90

01:07:20.000 Texas was clearly just. 0.96

01:07:22.000 Founded, settled by Americans who wanted to join the United States throughout that period.

01:07:28.000 We would be annexing a country that speaks Spanish, has a long history of independence.

01:07:34.000 They have an identity as Venezuelans.

01:07:36.000 And so when we're discussing how that would go politically, I don't think they'd be thinking, what's best for America?

01:07:42.000 Because I am now American.

01:07:43.000 They would be thinking, how do I help Venezuela, my country that has perhaps just temporarily attached itself to this country that's decided to be its sugar daddy?

01:07:53.000 And so, for example, in politics, it might just reduce to who's promising us the most money.

01:07:58.000 And I think we all know which party loves to promise people money for doing nothing the most.

01:08:03.000 It's important to remember Venezuela is poor.

01:08:07.000 The average Venezuela is poorer than the average Western European after World War II.

01:08:11.000 So, what we had to do in World War II to build up Western Europe, we would have to do at a larger scale to build up Venezuela while we are broke and while Americans really are resenting.

01:08:27.000 One, foreign policy, you know, adventurism, and two, money not being spent within our own country.

01:08:32.000 So that would probably be very, very dicey.

01:08:35.000 I don't think Donald Trump needs to do this to make it part of his legacy, to have a wonderful legacy.

01:08:41.000 So, but what about the oil, Ryan?

01:08:43.000 We could just fund it all with the oil.

01:08:45.000 What say you?

01:08:46.000 Yeah, allegedly, but the oil would then be owned by private companies.

01:08:49.000 So we're going to increase taxes on oil.

01:08:52.000 Is that what Trump's going to do?

01:08:53.000 I mean, we're just going to increase taxes left and right.

01:08:55.000 We could increase taxes on AI and spend a lot and pay for a lot of things, but we don't do that either.

01:09:00.000 Like, They're not going to want to tax if Trump has a good friend purchase oil, an oil company in Venezuela.

01:09:08.000 He's not going to push for higher taxes out of Venezuela, it's just not like there's just no way that that's going to happen.

01:09:14.000 So, no, it's going to come out of the American tax law.

01:09:16.000 We're going to borrow from China to spend in Venezuela at the increase of the lowering purchasing power of the American dollar for people in red states throughout the country. 0.59

01:09:26.000 It's not necessary. 0.64

01:09:27.000 Here's my most important question so we already have one Spanish speaking, uh.

01:09:33.000 You know, territory in Puerto Rico. 0.96

01:09:35.000 How many more bad bunnies could we get out of Venezuela? 0.98

01:09:41.000 That is really the question that needs to be asked.

01:09:43.000 It's a cultural question, it's a rhetorical one.

01:09:46.000 Ryan James Gurdasky, you have so many things here.

01:09:49.000 I want to make sure I get it.

01:09:50.000 You have the Home Pack.

01:09:52.000 Hold on.

01:09:52.000 Homeland Pack.

01:09:53.000 Homeland Pack for immigration restriction.

01:09:55.000 Check it out in a numbers game podcast and my podcast.

01:09:58.000 Those are the two I'll plug.

01:09:59.000 Everything else you can. 0.99

01:10:01.000 Substack.

01:10:02.000 National Podcast.

01:10:03.000 Yes.

01:10:03.000 Okay.

01:10:04.000 Ryan, great analysis.

01:10:06.000 Thank you, my friend.

01:10:06.000 We'll talk to you soon.

01:10:07.000 Thank you.

01:10:12.000 For more on many of these stories and news you can trust, go to charliekirk.com.

The Charlie Kirk Show - May 14, 2026

The China Thucydides Trap? + Venezuela, 51st State?

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