The Charlie Kirk Show - The Future of Trumpism, McConnell, and the GOP—By the Numbers with Rich Barris

00:00:00.000 Hey everybody, on this episode of the Charlie Kirk Show, we do a deep dive analysis of the 2020 election, Georgia, the future of the Republican Party with data expert, smart guy, Richard Barris.

00:00:12.000 He's smarter than Nate Silver, and I really like him.

00:00:15.000 He's a really good guy.

00:00:17.000 We dive into polling.

00:00:18.000 We dive into demographic trends.

00:00:21.000 Should the Republican Party become a party of amnesty and open borders or one of the rule of law?

00:00:27.000 You guys are going to really enjoy this conversation brought to you thanks to all of you that support us at charliekirk.com slash support.

00:00:35.000 That helps us directly add more researchers, add more editors, and continue the work we are doing here on the Charlie Kirk Show at charliekirk.com slash support.

00:00:45.000 Richard Barris is here.

00:00:47.000 Buckle up, everybody.

00:00:48.000 Here we go.

00:00:49.000 Charlie, what you've done is incredible here.

00:00:50.000 Maybe Charlie Kirk is on the college campuses.

00:00:52.000 I want you to know we are lucky to have Charlie Kirk.

00:00:56.000 Charlie Kirk's running the White House, folks.

00:00:59.000 I want to thank Charlie.

00:01:00.000 He's an incredible guy.

00:01:01.000 His spirit, his love of this country, he's done an amazing job building one of the most powerful youth organizations ever created, Turning Point USA.

00:01:10.000 We will not embrace the ideas that have destroyed countries, destroyed lives, and we are going to fight for freedom on campuses across the country.

00:01:18.000 That's why we are here.

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00:02:32.000 Hey, everybody, welcome to this episode of the Charlie Kirk Show.

00:02:34.000 With us today is Richard Barris, who is smarter than Nate Silver and better looking.

00:02:38.000 And he is the people's pundit.

00:02:40.000 I think I got that right.

00:02:41.000 Richard, welcome back to the Charlie Kirk Show.

00:02:44.000 You did indeed.

00:02:45.000 Thanks, Charlie.

00:02:46.000 Thanks for having me back.

00:02:46.000 It's good to be here.

00:02:47.000 I'm glad you finally admitted you're smarter than Nate Silver, because that is something I've been waiting to have you here because you're not sure what you said, agreed to.

00:02:54.000 I'm kidding.

00:02:56.000 You're very smart.

00:02:57.000 You were on top of the election.

00:02:59.000 Your predictions were right.

00:03:01.000 And your analysis of data is spot on.

00:03:04.000 I want to start with one thing that's been bothering me.

00:03:06.000 How did we lose Georgia?

00:03:09.000 Yeah.

00:03:10.000 So Georgia, there's no doubt.

00:03:12.000 Even the census data does show. 0.83

00:03:14.000 And I'm putting all of the funny business aside.

00:03:17.000 And we were just talking about this.

00:03:18.000 It doesn't mean you should throw some of the post-mortems out when you can read into what happened in Georgia.

00:03:24.000 So a lot of money thrown in a district like Georgia 7, typically a Republican district.

00:03:29.000 But over time, these areas have gotten more educated, more professional class, and that doesn't work toward to Republicans' favor.

00:03:38.000 That's not even the case with just the era of Trump.

00:03:40.000 That's going to be the case moving forward.

00:03:43.000 And then also, too, there were some working men, for instance, in the state, which went to Trump heavily last time, that kind of decided maybe Joe Biden would be for the work.

00:03:56.000 I know some people are going to say this is crazy, but in hindsight, there were men, working men, who thought Joe Biden would be a pro-worker, moderate Democrat.

00:04:07.000 And that's just, I mean, of course, we know that's not true, but think back to the campaign, Charlie, and you can see why some people believed it.

00:04:14.000 Yeah.

00:04:14.000 And so in Georgia, was there a turnout problem?

00:04:16.000 Were there certain parts of Georgia that did not turn out as robustly as we needed them to?

00:04:21.000 All the shenanigans and tomfoolery and nonsense aside, I'm not saying that that is something we shouldn't focus on.

00:04:28.000 Let's just talk about what we know.

00:04:30.000 Were there precincts and districts and counties where profiled Trump supporters, meaning more likely to be a Trump supporter than not, did not show up?

00:04:40.000 Yeah, particularly in the runoffs.

00:04:42.000 We saw this.

00:04:43.000 That's what I mean in particular.

00:04:44.000 The runoffs.

00:04:45.000 Yes.

00:04:46.000 Yeah, there was a red flag. 0.53

00:04:48.000 I mean, just being waved over the period of weeks, we polled that race several times.

00:04:53.000 And Loeffler, both Loeffler and Purdue were hurting with the Republican Trump voter.

00:04:59.000 And they're not really Republicans.

00:05:01.000 We have to remember this moving forward.

00:05:03.000 They are Trump voters and they're in the central part of the state and in the southern part of the state, along even in the coastline.

00:05:09.000 This was an ancestral Democratic working area that turned to Trump heavily and kept the state more competitive than we may have thought it to be in the past.

00:05:19.000 And then in the northern area of the state, the more Mitt Romney kind of Republican, they turned on Purdue and Loeffler anyway.

00:05:26.000 So the focus really should have been defending the president.

00:05:30.000 And, you know, make we told them to make the recall, all the recount all about the recall and to basically blend those two into one.

00:05:40.000 They rejected it.

00:05:41.000 They thought that Trump actually weighed down Purdue.

00:05:43.000 They arrogantly went in there thinking Purdue was going to carry this thing by a few points.

00:05:48.000 And it was very clear there was a closer race in the central part of the state than there should have been, but it was not because of voter preference.

00:05:55.000 It was because Republican voters were telling us, you know what?

00:05:59.000 I'm not a Republican.

00:06:01.000 They have to earn my vote and they're not earning it.

00:06:03.000 And that's what happened.

00:06:04.000 It's very clear.

00:06:06.000 That's well said.

00:06:07.000 And I completely agree.

00:06:09.000 And I think the president was at a point where he didn't really, I don't want to say he didn't care, but it wasn't his primary focus.

00:06:15.000 And he didn't feel like the senators wanted him there.

00:06:18.000 He didn't feel like he wanted, you know what I mean?

00:06:19.000 It just kind of became, all right, I'll help.

00:06:21.000 I'll go through the motions.

00:06:22.000 They're going to win anyway.

00:06:23.000 And Ossif and Warnock, they turned out their base.

00:06:29.000 Yeah, it's a great, that's a great point.

00:06:31.000 And in and around the metro area, they got it out.

00:06:34.000 And I'm looking at these results as they were coming in, and Republicans should understand this.

00:06:39.000 Those were both very winnable races.

00:06:42.000 Democrats did a great job for a runoff getting their base out, but Republicans lost because they did a very poor job.

00:06:49.000 They could have taken both of those races over time.

00:06:52.000 As those results were coming in, we could see three points running behind here, four points running behind here.

00:06:58.000 All of that builds up.

00:06:59.000 Georgia is massive.

00:07:01.000 There are a lot of counties in Georgia.

00:07:03.000 And when you're talking about a few points off of each county, even smaller areas, that really starts to rack up.

00:07:10.000 And you can't, you need that.

00:07:12.000 You need all of it to counteract good showings in the areas we were just talking about.

00:07:17.000 And then Gwynnett, DeKalb, these are professional class areas, guys, the tech areas.

00:07:21.000 And they're going to get turnout there.

00:07:23.000 It's so frustrating because if those two Senate seats would have been won, a lot of the legislative agenda with Joe Biden would have been derailed.

00:07:30.000 Trump would have had a lot of power over the party.

00:07:33.000 He still does, but it's a completely different set of circumstances.

00:07:36.000 And we wouldn't have to be dealing with Chuck Schumer.

00:07:38.000 So Fabrizio and Lee, the president's own pollsters, came out with this very long report.

00:07:44.000 I did an entire show on this.

00:07:46.000 Some of our listeners didn't like that because they say, why aren't you focusing on just all the nonsense and the fraud?

00:07:52.000 I say, look, you can talk about two things at the same time.

00:07:56.000 And I think some of this polling data is really interesting.

00:07:59.000 And I want to walk through you with this.

00:08:02.000 So can you talk about some of the big takeaways from this, from the president's pollster around what happened in November?

00:08:09.000 What are some of the lessons?

00:08:10.000 What are some of the takeaways?

00:08:12.000 And then let's get into some of the specifics.

00:08:14.000 Yeah, first off, you can walk and chew gum at the same time.

00:08:17.000 There is nothing wrong with looking at post-mortem data and learning, living and learning and moving forward.

00:08:23.000 And I think there's a couple of things that I would dispute on how they came at this, Charlie.

00:08:28.000 But like grouping together states, some things about certain states that the president held are true and they're not in Florida.

00:08:37.000 So you can't infer what happened in Georgia necessarily with another state like that.

00:08:42.000 So I do take issue with a little bit on how they did that.

00:08:45.000 And then also the fact that exit polling has a lot of problems and it's more problematic and has had a longer track record of issues than even traditional polling.

00:08:55.000 And couple that with all the mail-in voting, it's very hard to be an exit pollster today.

00:09:00.000 But that being said, there are some conclusions that they drew in that report that we even saw in Pennsylvania, that we saw in Michigan moving forward.

00:09:09.000 Trump, there was, again, and probably looking deeper, and they don't mention this in the report, but highlighting the men that were working class.

00:09:18.000 Trump, there were more of them in the electorate this time than there were in 16.

00:09:22.000 And Trump did not win them by as large of a margin as he did against Hillary Clinton in 2016.

00:09:28.000 So that's problematic.

00:09:29.000 When you influence, when the electorate gets bloated like that and you don't carry that group by the same number, you're going to suffer for it.

00:09:37.000 I think looking deeper into it, when it comes specifically to those working men and based on the investigations we've done, I see union all over this, Charlie.

00:09:47.000 I really do.

00:09:48.000 And when we polled Joe Biden's approval rating a couple of weeks ago during you want to call it his honeymoon period, he was above water with working union members.

00:09:57.000 Now he's underwater again.

00:09:59.000 So I feel like there was a push.

00:10:02.000 We know this to be true.

00:10:03.000 There was a push to get men, union men, to get behind the Democrat again because they knew what happened in 2016.

00:10:10.000 And I think they were largely successful in some very key areas.

00:10:13.000 Pennsylvania, Michigan, down the line, those were areas Trump needed to rack that up and basically stomp Biden with that group.

00:10:22.000 And a slippage of a few points here and there.

00:10:24.000 One was 12, if you read the report.

00:10:26.000 That's bad.

00:10:27.000 That's not good.

00:10:28.000 You can't afford it.

00:10:29.000 So the report says that the president lost ground with almost every age group in both state groupings, but he lost most with voters 18 to 29.

00:10:37.000 Not a huge surprise there.

00:10:38.000 But then also 65 plus.

00:10:41.000 Worst was the double digit erosion, though, that he suffered with white college educated voters across the board.

00:10:47.000 How could we explain that?

00:10:49.000 Yeah, I think there, again, the electorate was larger.

00:10:53.000 So it's possible that these were people that did not vote some of that anyway.

00:10:57.000 At least we have to think as a possibility that that represents at least part of that.

00:11:02.000 But when you look at the age group specifically, in 2016, Trump won every single age group in Iowa.

00:11:08.000 He didn't really erode that much.

00:11:10.000 That was the difference between a point, you know, eight and a half, nine and a half points, the difference there.

00:11:15.000 Ohio, another state.

00:11:16.000 That's one of the issues why I do take issue with him grouping all of these states together because what's true in Pennsylvania is not true about Iowa and Ohio.

00:11:26.000 You have to look more individual, more granular at this stuff, and they really lump it together.

00:11:31.000 It does a disservice to the overall conclusions we should be drawing.

00:11:35.000 But generally, in Michigan, no doubt.

00:11:38.000 And then in Pennsylvania, amazingly, he does somewhat better in a county like Bucks County, even with the mail-in vote.

00:11:45.000 He does not slide the way we actually anticipated him to slide, but it's even worse in the other southeastern counties where there are those white educated voters.

00:11:56.000 I would say this, Charlie, I don't think they're coming back.

00:11:58.000 With or without Trump, those voters are not coming back in droves because we have different experiences that shape our political opinions.

00:12:06.000 And over time, you want to call it the education system, whatever you want to call it.

00:12:11.000 They're making these white educated voters more liberal than they used to be.

00:12:15.000 And then there are also suburbs that aren't as white as they used to be.

00:12:19.000 So all of this is getting compounded.

00:12:21.000 And those areas are getting, Republicans are getting weaker and weaker.

00:12:25.000 Without Donald Trump, I don't foresee these people coming back in droves.

00:12:30.000 But it is also true that these people voted for Barack Obama as well in 08.

00:12:35.000 It's important to remember this.

00:12:36.000 They turned against him when the policy started to hurt them.

00:12:40.000 And sometimes that's really what it takes.

00:12:42.000 Pointing out where in their real lives, their everyday lives, what they voted for hurt them.

00:12:48.000 And then they'll turn on them.

00:12:49.000 These aren't rigidly Democratic party people, a lot of them.

00:12:53.000 They just, you know, their social circles identify with them more.

00:12:56.000 There's a big social desirability bias in their social circles.

00:13:00.000 So that's their natural lien.

00:13:02.000 But it doesn't mean they can't flip back.

00:13:04.000 I just don't see it.

00:13:06.000 I don't see this repudiation of Donald Trump by the Liz Cheneys of the world and others who are advocating for the party to do that.

00:13:14.000 I don't see a move like that making up ground with these voters. 0.65

00:13:17.000 All that will do is isolate the new voters that Donald Trump did bring in, which will leave them as a grossly minority party. 0.77

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00:14:27.000 And so I agree.

00:14:29.000 I don't think that the white suburban voters are coming back anytime soon.

00:14:32.000 And they're able to be liberal because they have so much wealth and luxury and abundance around them.

00:14:39.000 They think that is the norm.

00:14:40.000 Therefore, they think that redistributed economics makes so much sense because they know nothing but abundance and they've been filled with bad ideas at the universities.

00:14:50.000 So they have the lifestyle that affords them to be liberal.

00:14:54.000 That transitions nicely, Richard, to something I want to talk to you about, which is the people that don't have the lifestyle to be liberal.

00:15:00.000 They're actually becoming more conservative. 0.90

00:15:01.000 I'm talking about Hispanics.

00:15:03.000 I'm talking about white working class voters.

00:15:05.000 We know about white working class voters.

00:15:07.000 Trump dipped a little bit there, probably because of the virus, probably because of that.

00:15:12.000 But I want to focus on something positive, a huge opening for the Republican Party as kind of the smug, arrogant, college-educated, suburban, just kind of archetype, right?

00:15:24.000 The people that not exactly are my favorite type of political commentators. 0.67

00:15:29.000 They just are very nasty, very, you know what I'm talking about?

00:15:32.000 Late 20s, early 30s, went to Brown, went to St. Olaf, went to Dartmouth, went to Berkeley, and they have a good job, right?

00:15:39.000 A six-figure job at a corporation, but they know nothing except woke left-wing deconstructionism.

00:15:46.000 They think that is the, and they think their incomes are always going to keep going up forever.

00:15:51.000 They're really, really getting pushed to the left and the liberal side.

00:15:54.000 Let them go make a mess of that, right? 0.97

00:15:56.000 They're going to have a miserable life.

00:15:58.000 The opportunity, though, is all of a sudden that's opening nicely. 0.95

00:16:02.000 And this is what we see in the data: how much better Trump did with Hispanics.

00:16:09.000 How does that work? 0.99

00:16:11.000 Yeah, you know, I was trying to be nice before, but you did nail it.

00:16:15.000 So these are insulated people.

00:16:17.000 They don't live with the consequences of their own actions and their own policy decisions until it's a severe one.

00:16:24.000 And then they have a wake-up moment.

00:16:26.000 And that's when they'll typically swing back and forth.

00:16:29.000 The positive here for Trumpers and Republicans, if they're smart enough to see this, is that the groups that Donald Trump did better with are growing groups. 0.62

00:16:39.000 The white change in vote preference, they're not expanding. 0.58

00:16:43.000 So the professional class isn't getting bigger demographically. 0.50

00:16:47.000 They're just changing their voter preference.

00:16:50.000 If you want to be on the mid to long term winning side, you want to appeal to the groups who are growing in this country.

00:16:56.000 And Donald Trump did that.

00:16:58.000 That is the reason Texas went to Donald Trump is not because of what they call the Anglo voter.

00:17:05.000 The western Texas and southern Texas working Mexican, both male and female.

00:17:11.000 They wide in the state of Texas. 0.99

00:17:13.000 That's exactly right. 0.69

00:17:14.000 And in Florida, the southern Cuban Venezuelan and Guatemalan Hispanic denied Joe Biden a victory in the state of Florida. 0.87

00:17:23.000 Overwhelmingly, by the way, another four years of Trumpism and Miami-Dade could be a 52% plus Republican county.

00:17:32.000 Think about that, folks.

00:17:34.000 So, yeah, I think what it really comes down to, and I've been in, I don't even know now how many I've been counting, but we've been everywhere talking to voters since the election, and really particularly Trump voters who voted Republican.

00:17:47.000 There's millions of them that may disappear back into the interior without Donald Trump.

00:17:52.000 And we're trying to find out what it is that made them a Trump supporter, even though their demographic or the archetype doesn't fit.

00:18:00.000 And it really comes down when it, when we're talking about those voters specifically, Charlie, it comes down to life experience again.

00:18:07.000 Either they themselves, their parents, their grandparents, smell the false promise of liberalism a mile away or leftism.

00:18:15.000 Let's just call it that.

00:18:17.000 And they don't care about a man's personality.

00:18:20.000 They understand what can happen if America goes down the same road that their country went down.

00:18:26.000 They really get that.

00:18:28.000 And when we polled these people too in Florida, South Florida, a lot of the media were really superficial about their analysis of how Southern Florida was going to vote.

00:18:37.000 People didn't just agree or like Donald Trump.

00:18:40.000 They agreed with him on every single issue.

00:18:43.000 They just smelled the false promise of leftism.

00:18:47.000 I don't know what else to call it because one gentleman put it to me that way and it's been sticking with me.

00:18:52.000 So we know what free health care means.

00:18:54.000 We know what this means.

00:18:55.000 We know what they say it's going to promise us, but what we get in the end. 0.63

00:18:59.000 And a white woman who works for CNN, who went to, like you said, Brown, who whatever it may be, Duke, you know, some Ivory League, they don't have, they have the luxury of making these bad decisions and making these bad policy choices, while these other voters see it as, you know, this, your vote could be life and death. 0.53

00:19:19.000 I mean, it could be freedom or tyranny, and you have to take that more seriously. 0.53

00:19:24.000 So they, it's, it's really incredible.

00:19:26.000 And now at the same time, a lot of these people didn't particularly like the Republican Party before Donald Trump.

00:19:32.000 And there's a real, there, there is a real danger that they could, they could lose them again.

00:19:38.000 The gains that we saw in West Texas, the gains that we saw, even in Arizona, by the way, and Nevada, which get overlooked because you lost those two states, Florida, South Florida.

00:19:50.000 They could reverse.

00:19:51.000 I mean, the Republicans should not just make the mistake of thinking these voters are going to be Republican and are going to rush to the ballot box for them.

00:19:59.000 They're going to have to fight to keep them. 0.51

00:20:01.000 And we lost Arizona because of Paradise Valley and Scottsdale and East Valley voters and Chandler, Gilbert, and that area, not because of the Hispanic vote, because of Mexican-Americans. 0.87

00:20:13.000 And so I want to really zero in on this.

00:20:15.000 From my conversation with Hispanic voters, they're not as convinced about free markets or tax cuts.

00:20:22.000 This is something that the Chamber of Commerce and their establishment Republicans, they're so wrong on this.

00:20:28.000 They, they actually, they're very pro-law enforcement.

00:20:31.000 A lot of Hispanics go into law enforcement. 0.87

00:20:34.000 They hate crime. 1.00

00:20:35.000 This is something that they don't understand.

00:20:37.000 The Republicans don't.

00:20:39.000 They cannot stand chaos in the streets.

00:20:42.000 They don't like, they've saw it in Nicaragua.

00:20:44.000 They saw it in Guatemala.

00:20:44.000 They've seen it in Mexico.

00:20:46.000 So any party that stands with law enforcement, it gets the attention of a Hispanic voter. 0.83

00:20:51.000 It really does because they know what happens when crime goes unchecked, when Honduras has one of the highest murder per capita rates in all of Central America or in the world.

00:21:03.000 And so when the Democrats were attacking law enforcement, they didn't like that.

00:21:06.000 They also didn't like the hyper-racialization of American politics. 0.55

00:21:10.000 They didn't care for the BLM incorporated nonsense that spread our country for a couple of months. 0.75

00:21:15.000 If you notice, just from a purely just, if you look at the pictures of those rallies, it's a bunch of white upper middle class activists and black activists. 0.56

00:21:24.000 There weren't a lot of Hispanic activists that participated in the BLM incorporated riots or nonsense. 0.64

00:21:30.000 I think that's also an interesting takeaway.

00:21:32.000 And they're also very pro-life.

00:21:35.000 They are very socially conservative and they don't like the direction the Democrats have taken on faith, family, religion, and social values.

00:21:44.000 Do you agree with that assessment?

00:21:45.000 And if so, how should the Republicans react to that in trying to win over these voters in the next cycle?

00:21:51.000 Yeah, I do agree with that.

00:21:52.000 And some of the social service or the social safety net, I would say, you know, social security, they don't like the Paul Ryan angle.

00:22:02.000 They can't do it, right?

00:22:03.000 And they believe, well, you know, I'm a citizen.

00:22:06.000 I work hard.

00:22:06.000 If I fall on hard times, that should be there for me.

00:22:09.000 And that's the thing.

00:22:09.000 And that's a mentality that has been built into, and there's nothing wrong with it.

00:22:12.000 It's just a fact in Central American and South American government.

00:22:17.000 It's just they do not believe the government should not offer money if you need it.

00:22:24.000 So don't try and convince them.

00:22:25.000 They've come to expect it.

00:22:26.000 Yes.

00:22:27.000 Yeah, that's right.

00:22:27.000 They've come to, to them, that is a legitimate role of government, and it doesn't even have to be one that's abused.

00:22:34.000 And then also to immigration, the flip side of that issue, but most media people will talk about it.

00:22:39.000 Hispanics absolutely love unfettered immigration.

00:22:42.000 West Texas, Southern Texas, those working Mexicans do not love unfeathered illegal immigration. 0.99

00:22:48.000 It's completely different. 0.80

00:22:49.000 And they are very socially conservative.

00:22:51.000 And I think, Charlie, you did hit on something.

00:22:54.000 So when they see chaos in the streets and really just civil unrest, it bothers them a lot.

00:23:02.000 It's almost seen as a precursor to the potential more instability that can make its way through government.

00:23:09.000 Yes.

00:23:09.000 Yeah.

00:23:10.000 They get nervous if they live to see that and their parents did.

00:23:14.000 Yes, they've seen it.

00:23:15.000 They see when all of a sudden all the systems fall apart.

00:23:19.000 Please continue.

00:23:20.000 Yeah, that's it.

00:23:22.000 It's really like a domino effect.

00:23:23.000 So if all this civil unrest and then what follows after that, regime instability and the loss of credibility, and it's just a precursor for worse things to follow.

00:23:32.000 They want everything calm so they could just work and do their thing and move on.

00:23:37.000 And I think there's something to be said about the fighting, right?

00:23:41.000 And a lot of times the more traditional Republican will mock some of the Trump voters who say, well, buddy fights, buddy fights.

00:23:49.000 There is something about them liking somebody who fights back.

00:23:53.000 So I think that's innately human, though.

00:23:56.000 Nobody wants to follow anybody who doesn't have the courage of their own convictions, or at least enough to fight for what they believe in.

00:24:03.000 And I think they just are more willing to point that.

00:24:05.000 They're more honest and are willing to point that out.

00:24:08.000 Again, this is a group that's growing.

00:24:11.000 So it's, you know, four or eight years ago, Republicans would get criticized for being the party of white people. 0.56

00:24:18.000 And you would say, you know, a lot of times they would return by saying it's good to be the party of the majority, right? 0.68

00:24:24.000 But in the end, this group is the growing group. 0.51

00:24:27.000 Even African Americans are not growing at the rates that these are, even though they participate in elections at higher rates.

00:24:34.000 There is a lot of working Hispanic muscle to flex in the electorate.

00:24:38.000 I can't stress that enough.

00:24:40.000 There are a lot of people who aren't even registered folks and they're out there and they're ready to go and greet and meet and persuade.

00:24:48.000 And you just got to earn it.

00:24:50.000 You got to earn it.

00:24:51.000 So the potential there is infinitely higher.

00:24:55.000 I would say that the ceiling to build a large tent is infinitely larger, higher with that group of people than it is to race back to the white liberal and Georgia seven and try to earn back their vote.

00:25:07.000 I just don't, I don't see it.

00:25:10.000 It's not only a matter of sheer numbers, but it's a matter of who is really persuadable because of their life experience.

00:25:16.000 And those, they're not even close.

00:25:19.000 So I agree with you with the white liberals, but there is some evidence to show, Richard, and I'd like you to add some context to this, that there were split ticket voters.

00:25:28.000 There were Biden Republican congressional voters, right?

00:25:33.000 There were people in the suburbs that voted for Joe Biden, but then voted for maybe Maria Elvira Salazar.

00:25:39.000 That's not the best example.

00:25:40.000 Maybe Marionette Miller-Meeks in Iowa or Mike Garcia or Burgess Owens.

00:25:46.000 Can you talk about how there is some potential in some of these suburban districts of more of the boomer category?

00:25:53.000 So the boomers, I think, are looking for reasons to go vote for Republicans.

00:25:58.000 I think that the 29 to 35-year-old recent college graduate who think they have the whole world figured out, I don't see a lot of movement in that demo. 0.87

00:26:07.000 I just don't.

00:26:07.000 But the 40 to 55-year-old voter that couldn't do Trump, but they voted for a Republican senator and they voted for a Republican House member, there's some movement there.

00:26:18.000 But then also, there's a lot of opportunity in the new retirees, the people that are moving to Florida, the people that are moving to Arizona, the people that are moving to Texas for retirement, and they didn't like Trump.

00:26:30.000 They didn't like the virus response, but the data shows that they did try to give Kevin McCarthy the speakership and only lost by 32,000 votes.

00:26:40.000 Can you talk a little bit about that, about how there were actually more gains for Republicans down the ballot than actually caught the eye initially?

00:26:48.000 Yeah, so it's the pandemic.

00:26:50.000 So at first, we weren't, we didn't have enough to really declare where that came from. 0.81

00:26:54.000 But overwhelmingly, Charlie, that was the pandemic with that group, 45 and above specifically. 0.99

00:27:00.000 And the reason why we're pretty much convinced now that that's a safe bet. 1.00

00:27:05.000 That's what it was.

00:27:06.000 Aside from the pre-election polling data, which really did show if you were to overlap those voters with their top issue, it was coronavirus.

00:27:15.000 And then who did you trust more to handle that issue?

00:27:19.000 It was Biden with more than 70%.

00:27:22.000 So that already gave us a pretty, you know, pretty good indicator that had a big impact on those people changing their votes.

00:27:29.000 But now, what's kind of solidifying this for us is Biden's approval numbers and what people are telling us.

00:27:35.000 So we did get above 50 in the little honeymoon phase.

00:27:38.000 I don't know where some of these media polls are coming from.

00:27:40.000 He was largely 47, 48% president.

00:27:44.000 We're just too polarized for unless it was an Obama kind of figure, we're not going to get anyone at 60 or plus.

00:27:51.000 It's just not going to happen.

00:27:52.000 Media polls that are doing that are either full of it or they're subject to any kind of bias, like a response bias or a social bias.

00:28:00.000 We have him generally in the high 40s.

00:28:03.000 Biggest was 52, his highest was 52 and after he started to slip.

00:28:08.000 And the reason is, uh, some of that is working.

00:28:10.000 Unions are not happy with some of the direction he's taking.

00:28:13.000 But it's also a suburban, 45 and above, particularly a woman, and what they're telling us is, look, this guy promised to do a better job and now he's talking about, uh, you know, this is going to be a miserable winter and there's not a lot I can do about it.

00:28:29.000 And one woman, specifically i'm thinking about her.

00:28:32.000 She told us he had two months.

00:28:34.000 All of the media polls showed he was going to win.

00:28:36.000 So you, you really should have been preparing for victory and what you were going to do, making all of these promises that you were going to get a handle on Covid, and they haven't done anything.

00:28:47.000 Let's be honest, you know and i'm listening to her chuckling because her vote was a Covet vote I mean, she probably would have voted for Donald Trump had Covet not come around.

00:28:56.000 I think it's pretty clear.

00:28:57.000 But she's in that at-risk category.

00:29:00.000 They take it more seriously and they were, you know, thinking maybe Biden's a moderate and the media hypes up how badly Donald Trump handled this virus.

00:29:10.000 Maybe there wouldn't have been 400 000 dead.

00:29:12.000 Uh, so there people have to understand there's a group of people out there who did believe this and now they're.

00:29:18.000 They're having some remorse.

00:29:20.000 It's voter remorse, but the pandemic is that category.

00:29:24.000 I would.

00:29:24.000 I would definitely separate them from that political class working younger political class voter in the suburb.

00:29:31.000 There's just little room to get any of them on board, but there is room in the suburbs for for those people and actually we saw some of them in rural areas too.

00:29:39.000 No doubt about it.

00:29:43.000 Look, a lot of you guys have had Mike Lindell's back.

00:29:46.000 I know a lot of you guys want to continue to have his back and the amazing company that you guys are supporting is my Pillow.

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00:30:09.000 If you want to support the good guys, support people with courage.

00:30:12.000 I know a lot of you guys do.

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00:30:33.000 So so let's say you are now.

00:30:34.000 You've just been hired by Kevin Mccarthy to take back the house.

00:30:38.000 What issues are you running on specifically?

00:30:40.000 Who are you targeting?

00:30:42.000 How are you messaging it?

00:30:43.000 Let's pretend you just got tapped as the chief strategy political savant.

00:30:47.000 What do you do?

00:30:49.000 Yeah, so first, there's really two things you have to do, right?

00:30:52.000 So you have to hammer Joe Biden on coronavirus, fair or not.

00:30:55.000 Let's say he starts even doing a better job.

00:30:58.000 That shouldn't matter.

00:30:59.000 That really, it's irrelevant.

00:31:02.000 Like it was irrelevant.

00:31:03.000 Yeah, I mean, it's, I don't understand why they think like that really has no weight on whether or not you hammer somebody on an issue.

00:31:10.000 It didn't have any weight on Donald Trump.

00:31:12.000 We found out the CDC was the problem for testing in the beginning, not the administration.

00:31:16.000 That did not matter, and they made that issue stick.

00:31:19.000 And then also, the way the Democrats are moving on the issues will dictate that. 0.97

00:31:25.000 But generally speaking, your second job is holding on to those Trump voters because healthcare, unless they do something really stupid, is going to be a difficult issue to overtake Democrats on.

00:31:36.000 If they try to make a run towards single payer, a real run, then you may even have an opening there with some of those suburban voters that have good insurance and they don't want a single payer system.

00:31:48.000 But for the most part, you have to, your main job is focusing on keeping those Trump voters.

00:31:54.000 And again, I don't know if the party's the right party to do that right now, Charlie.

00:32:01.000 I'm not sure.

00:32:02.000 We'll see.

00:32:03.000 I think the Republicans have to have an internal fight before they can figure out what direction they need to go in.

00:32:08.000 I'm not talking about a new party.

00:32:10.000 I'm saying they have to find out who they are because you can't talk about trade and war the way Donald Trump did if half your members don't believe that is true, right?

00:32:22.000 So if you're a free trading Republican, you'll do more to hurt the cause for the congressional candidate in Michigan 3 or Michigan 8, which are two districts they absolutely, there's no reason they should not hold and take this time around.

00:32:37.000 Texas 15, we were just talking about those working Mexicans in Texas 15. 0.95

00:32:42.000 That is a district they didn't give any, they didn't pay any mind to barely the resources needed. 1.00

00:32:47.000 They could have flipped that district.

00:32:49.000 So if you have a California Republican who won his district by two or three points talking about free trade and supporting actions in Syria, that's another one, Charlie.

00:33:00.000 Joe Biden is all over the map already.

00:33:02.000 Anti-war, anti-war, anti-war.

00:33:05.000 Our pre-election polling really did show that Joe Biden was kind of splitting that anti-war vote in Michigan. 0.90

00:33:12.000 That's ridiculous. 0.57

00:33:14.000 I didn't realize. 0.99

00:33:15.000 I'll be honest, that's a failure of the Trump campaign.

00:33:17.000 They did not talk about it enough.

00:33:18.000 They should have gone on the endless war tour for a week in October. 1.00

00:33:21.000 I'm telling you, it is a winning issue.

00:33:24.000 He had more, you know, and this really upsets me.

00:33:27.000 I get animated about this.

00:33:29.000 In the three debates we had, the one presidential and the two presidential, and I thought Trump canceling one of the debates was a mistake.

00:33:34.000 He needed it.

00:33:35.000 Anyway, the three that we had, you know that he never mentioned the Abraham Accords once with Israel and the peace deal?

00:33:41.000 Not once.

00:33:42.000 I mean, what is more popular to sell to the American people than peace?

00:33:48.000 It's like a dream.

00:33:49.000 And I brought that up and the response basically was that, yeah, they don't.

00:33:55.000 And the response basically was to blame the debate commission, which I can understand because they got rid of the second foreign policy.

00:34:03.000 You can talk about rights.

00:34:05.000 You bring up what you want to bring up, especially when you are the president.

00:34:09.000 You will answer the question the way you feel like answering it. 0.97

00:34:13.000 You know, I'm not going to be distracted by that ridiculous question.

00:34:16.000 Why don't we tell the American people how I brokered three peace deals in a week?

00:34:21.000 I mean, that is what in the opening debate, if Trump just would, if the president would have just repeated, I got peace in the Middle East.

00:34:28.000 This guy sent billions to Iran.

00:34:30.000 You might not like my style, but I get stuff done.

00:34:32.000 Peace is popular.

00:34:34.000 We're ending the wars.

00:34:35.000 I'm telling you, you want to move that 18 to 29 demo?

00:34:37.000 They are a very anti-war demo.

00:34:40.000 And just so everyone's clear, when I talk to younger voters, the stereotype they have of Trump is a warmonger.

00:34:46.000 He's the first president not to start new wars.

00:34:48.000 Eric Weinstein, a liberal, you probably know of him.

00:34:51.000 He's on YouTube a lot.

00:34:52.000 He does a lot of the intellectual dark web thing.

00:34:54.000 He even said Trump's greatest accomplishment is no new wars.

00:34:57.000 He said it.

00:34:58.000 He's a progressive card-carrying liberal.

00:35:00.000 And I heard him say that.

00:35:01.000 I said, man, we could have done a whole swing voter campaign on that.

00:35:04.000 And that would have made a difference.

00:35:06.000 It really would have.

00:35:07.000 I'm telling you, because Joe Biden's.

00:35:09.000 New Hampshire, too.

00:35:10.000 Totally.

00:35:11.000 New Hampshire, too.

00:35:12.000 It got away from them in New Hampshire.

00:35:15.000 Coronavirus really sealed the deal in New Hampshire.

00:35:18.000 We had Trump a little bit ahead in New Hampshire before coronavirus just started drumming him.

00:35:23.000 But also in New Hampshire, voters actually picked Biden when we asked him, who do you trust more to keep you out of a new war?

00:35:34.000 Biden had a pretty large lead.

00:35:36.000 By large, I mean about 11 points. 0.95

00:35:38.000 That's ridiculous. 0.88

00:35:39.000 I don't know how, again, it's a failure. 0.95

00:35:43.000 New Hampshire, George W. Bush carried in 2000, basically stating that we can't be the policemen of the world.

00:35:49.000 And then he went in a different direction is a good way to put it after 9-11 and he lost it.

00:35:55.000 Kerry took it from him because of the war in Iraq.

00:35:58.000 And Republicans never got it back.

00:36:00.000 It was very close in 16 with Donald Trump because people did have that distinction.

00:36:05.000 And then in 2020, they just let that get away from them.

00:36:08.000 I mean, I just, and I know new wars.

00:36:10.000 I know what people are going to say.

00:36:12.000 They say all social media and media.

00:36:13.000 I agree with all that.

00:36:14.000 But I also know I saw a lot of Trump advertising.

00:36:17.000 I did not see one advertisement ever talking about the Israel peace accords, ever talking about ending the war.

00:36:23.000 So don't give me that. 0.89

00:36:24.000 I mean, that should have been a primary focus.

00:36:27.000 Peace, believe it or not, is popular.

00:36:29.000 Okay, in closing here, Richard, what is the Democrat, what is the biggest threat that we have to face from the Democrats in a year that we should take back the House?

00:36:39.000 What is our biggest threat?

00:36:40.000 Yeah, if they hold on to the House, what will the story be written?

00:36:45.000 They're going to try to make permanent what we saw in November.

00:36:50.000 And I really cannot stress this enough.

00:36:52.000 They are going to try to, and normally, for those who don't really understand, states control their own elections, and the federal government really does not have a role in elections.

00:37:04.000 Now, that being said, the federal government is the bread and butter of the Democratic Party.

00:37:09.000 All the solutions to their problems or the problems of the country is a government-centered solution, a federal solution.

00:37:14.000 So they want to make, if not through some kind of legislation federally, they want to pressure, use their power to pressure officials back home.

00:37:24.000 If this becomes how we conduct elections moving forward, Charlie, we're in deep trouble.

00:37:29.000 I mean, that's it.

00:37:30.000 It's going to be very difficult to get a grip on this because there are certain things that happened last time.

00:37:35.000 I just don't believe are possible unless it, if it was a normal election cycle.

00:37:41.000 And they're going to use their allies to do it.

00:37:43.000 I smell union all over the place.

00:37:46.000 And if they continue down this road, it's forget about all the other issues.

00:37:51.000 If you have a difficult time winning or beating the institution itself, then you can't make any progress on individual policies.

00:37:59.000 And if you're a gun rights person, I think you really, at this point, you need to be worried about that.

00:38:04.000 There's all sorts of crazy ideas floating around.

00:38:08.000 And if they get it through the House, then they're going to put pressure on the Senate to do so.

00:38:12.000 And you'll see moderate Republicans cave on some of these ideas, especially if it gets through the House with a pretty large or a large enough margin.

00:38:20.000 So, I mean, there's almost nothing, Charlie, that you can't worry about if they continue to keep this majority.

00:38:27.000 It's an HR1.

00:38:28.000 They're trying to pass it right now.

00:38:29.000 It's Richard Barris for People's Pundits Daily.

00:38:32.000 How could people check out what you're doing?

00:38:34.000 Yeah, they can follow me on locals now, peoplespundant.locals.com.

00:38:38.000 I'm still on Twitter for the time being at peoples underscore pundit.

00:38:42.000 And of course, on YouTube, Inside the Numbers, which is People's Pundit Dailies YouTube channel, we do that show still on YouTube.

00:38:50.000 So everybody can follow me over there.

00:38:53.000 Awesome.

00:38:53.000 Richard, thank you for joining us.

00:38:54.000 Keep up the great work.

00:38:55.000 Talk to you soon.

00:38:57.000 All the best, my friend.

00:38:58.000 All the best.

00:38:58.000 Thanks.

00:38:59.000 Talk to you soon.

00:39:02.000 Thanks so much for listening, everybody.

00:39:04.000 I encourage you to get involved with Turning Point USA at tpusa.com, tpusa.com.

00:39:09.000 Email us your questions, as always, freedom at charliekirk.com.

00:39:12.000 And if you want to support us, go to charliekirk.com slash support.

00:39:15.000 Thanks so much for listening, everybody.

00:39:17.000 God bless.

00:39:21.000 For more on many of these stories and news you can trust, go to CharlieKirk.com.

The Charlie Kirk Show - February 17, 2021

The Future of Trumpism, McConnell, and the GOP—By the Numbers with Rich Barris

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