The Charlie Kirk Show - The Major Shift in Non-White Voters

00:00:00.000 Hey everybody, Tan the Charlie Kirk Show.

00:00:01.000 Rich Barris joins the program to talk polling, and then Tom Schatz from the Citizens Against Government Waste.

00:00:07.000 As always, you can email us freedom at charliekirk.com.

00:00:11.000 Get involved with TurningPointUSA at tpusa.com.

00:00:14.000 That's tpusa.com.

00:00:16.000 Start a high school or college chapter today at tpusa.com.

00:00:20.000 Open up your podcast app and make sure you are subscribed and get your tickets to AmericaFest.

00:00:25.000 It's amfest.com, A-M-F-E-S-T.com.

00:00:30.000 Buckle up, everybody.

00:00:31.000 Here we go.

00:00:32.000 Charlie, what you've done is incredible here.

00:00:34.000 Maybe Charlie Kirk is on the college campuses.

00:00:36.000 I want you to know we are lucky to have Charlie Kirk.

00:00:39.000 Charlie Kirk's running the White House, folks.

00:00:43.000 I want to thank Charlie.

00:00:44.000 He's an incredible guy.

00:00:45.000 His spirit, his love of this country, he's done an amazing job building one of the most powerful youth organizations ever created.

00:00:52.000 Turning point USA. 0.65

00:00:53.000 We will not embrace the ideas that have destroyed countries, destroyed lives, and we are going to fight for freedom on campuses across the country.

00:01:02.000 That's why we are here.

00:01:05.000 Brought to you by the Loan Experts I Trust, Andrew and Todd at Sierra Pacific Mortgage at andrewandTodd.com.

00:01:14.000 Joining us now is Tom Schatz, President of the Council for Citizens Against Government Waste.

00:01:19.000 Honored to be partnering with them on a lot of different stuff.

00:01:21.000 Tom, welcome to the program.

00:01:23.000 Tom, please introduce yourself to our audience.

00:01:25.000 Thanks, Charlie, for having me on.

00:01:27.000 I'm Tom Schatz, the president of the Council for Citizens Against Government Waste, which, by the way, was created along with Citizens Against Government Waste following the release of the Grace Commission report under President Ronald Reagan.

00:01:39.000 Well, very good.

00:01:40.000 Well, Tom, thank you for all that you're doing together.

00:01:43.000 We love partnering.

00:01:44.000 Talk about this last-minute deal.

00:01:47.000 We've been plugging it very generously here.

00:01:49.000 Our audience is really engaged.

00:01:50.000 LowermyDrugPrices.com.

00:01:53.000 What's going on here?

00:01:54.000 Bernie Sanders is trying to sneak under the surface.

00:01:58.000 Talk all about it.

00:02:00.000 Well, S1339 would regulate pharmacy benefit managers who are used by 275 million Americans who save about $1,040 every year through the lower drug prices that the PVMs help negotiate on behalf of plan sponsors who are employees, unions, and governments, state and local.

00:02:22.000 Simple enough.

00:02:23.000 It saves money.

00:02:24.000 It's completely voluntary.

00:02:26.000 And Bernie wants to use his legislation to further increase government control over healthcare, one of the few areas of healthcare that's saving money.

00:02:35.000 And of course, we know what government control over healthcare does.

00:02:38.000 It raises costs and reduces choices.

00:02:41.000 So Bernie attempting, what is the argument that Bernie is making?

00:02:45.000 He never tells the truth.

00:02:47.000 What is his argument to try and change this?

00:02:49.000 Well, he's claiming that the PVMs don't save money, that they're out there to, you know, as quote-unquote middlemen, which they're not.

00:02:57.000 They just negotiate these arrangements in a large volume, which is harder to do for smaller businesses.

00:03:05.000 He would simply get into the middle of this whole process that involves the pharmaceutical manufacturers, the PVMs, the insurers, the employers, pharmacies.

00:03:18.000 They set it up because it was the best way to save money.

00:03:21.000 Been around since the 1960s, very popular.

00:03:24.000 And it's his way of pushing more government control to eventually full government-run healthcare.

00:03:29.000 And some Republicans are with him, unfortunately.

00:03:31.000 And so Bernie Sanders wants the government to control more of your health care choices.

00:03:35.000 And we know that's a terrible idea.

00:03:37.000 So why did the Republicans in the House pay for this?

00:03:39.000 Is there a special interest that is pushing for this?

00:03:41.000 What special interest group would be pushing for this?

00:03:44.000 Well, it's unclear why any Republican would support any more interference in health care.

00:03:49.000 So we've been trying to point out to them that this is not something that any fiscal conservative should be supporting.

00:03:57.000 The House, as you noted, has passed a bill with some restrictions on PBMs.

00:04:01.000 We're hoping to stop the Senate from doing the same.

00:04:03.000 We've got a pretty good record so far of keeping Bernie's bill off of the floor of the Senate.

00:04:10.000 But you never know these days.

00:04:11.000 People like to do things and say, oh, I'm lowering your drug prices, but this would do the exact opposite.

00:04:16.000 Yeah, it's befuddling to me.

00:04:18.000 So instead of lowering the cost of prescription drugs, the reform bill would raise prices on the very same people that they claim to represent.

00:04:26.000 So what is the call to action here?

00:04:28.000 What can the grassroots do?

00:04:29.000 What can the people do before it is too late?

00:04:33.000 Well, go to lowermydrugprices.com and you can help by sending an email to your senator.

00:04:41.000 You can contact them directly, however you wish, and just let them know that you oppose S-1339.

00:04:48.000 Fiscal conservatives should not be voting for anything that increases government control over health care and would raise rather than lower drug prices.

00:04:56.000 You know, it's a lot like the other efforts being made to, you know, quote unquote, help people in the country, Obamacare, Inflation Reduction Act.

00:05:04.000 Oh, you can keep your doctor.

00:05:06.000 We're going to lower costs.

00:05:08.000 And of course, the exact opposite has occurred every time the government gets involved.

00:05:12.000 Yeah.

00:05:13.000 And so we have momentum, and that's the thing at lowermydrugprices.com.

00:05:18.000 The PBMs administer drug plans more than 270.

00:05:21.000 So let's get into the mechanics of it.

00:05:22.000 So let's say I go to a pharmacy and need a prescription.

00:05:25.000 How do these pharmacy benefit managers help average Americans?

00:05:28.000 Get into the details here.

00:05:30.000 Well, they are, for example, mail order.

00:05:33.000 That's something that smaller operations can't do.

00:05:36.000 And by the way, there are, I think, 65 or so PBMs around the country.

00:05:41.000 There are three fairly large companies that a lot of people are familiar with.

00:05:45.000 But a lot of times a drug that might not be available on your healthcare plan could be made available through the PBMs because of their large network.

00:05:54.000 Some specialty drugs are involved in this.

00:05:57.000 So some independent pharmacies are unhappy about this because they're not part of the network.

00:06:02.000 Of course, if you have a network, everybody has agreed to abide by the same rules and take advantage of the savings.

00:06:08.000 And that's exactly why these networks are set up.

00:06:11.000 Yeah, no, it's a remarkable thing.

00:06:13.000 So again, just remind our audience, it's lowermydrugprices.com.

00:06:16.000 Is that right?

00:06:17.000 Lowermydrugprices.com.

00:06:19.000 That's it. 0.99

00:06:20.000 Get on there and help just not us.

00:06:22.000 Help the taxpayers and help yourself by signing up and letting your senator know to oppose Bernie's bill.

00:06:28.000 And just in closing, also tell us more about the Citizens for Government Waste, kind of your charter, your mission, the things that you're focused on.

00:06:36.000 Citizens Against Government Waste and our lobbying on the Council for Citizens Against Government Waste, which was lobbying in this legislation, we were founded by J. Peter Grace and Jack Anderson after the release of the Grace Commission report under President Reagan, who I have the honor to meet at one of the events related to the Grace Commission and CAGW.

00:06:54.000 He called us the people's lobby.

00:06:57.000 And it's really every day that we think about carrying out the mission that he provided for CAGW and our more than 1 million members and supporters.

00:07:05.000 We're taxpayers and we'd like the government to stop wasting our money and be more efficient.

00:07:10.000 Very good.

00:07:10.000 Tom, honor to be partnering with you.

00:07:13.000 Thank you so much.

00:07:13.000 Really appreciate it.

00:07:14.000 Thank you.

00:07:14.000 Thanks, Charlie.

00:07:15.000 Everyone, check it out, lower mydrugprices.com.

00:07:18.000 That is lowermydrugprices.com.

00:07:22.000 We're getting a lot of emails here.

00:07:24.000 People are saying, Charlie, what's this whole thing with Speaker Johnson and Paul Ryan?

00:07:27.000 There's been a lot of questions about that.

00:07:28.000 Okay, so yesterday, before the NDAA bill, which I'm getting lots of text messages on because I texted a lot of members of Congress, Speaker Paul Ryan and Speaker Johnson were hanging out in the speaker suite.

00:07:40.000 No, look, I don't want to overly fault by guilt by association.

00:07:43.000 I hate that.

00:07:44.000 You know, sometimes people said, oh, Charlie, did you really meet with that person?

00:07:46.000 So you never know what's being discussed, right?

00:07:48.000 So I think the optics are terrible, though.

00:07:50.000 Let's be honest.

00:07:51.000 The optics are terrible because this looks like you're being buddy buddy with a failed, terrible uniparty speaker.

00:07:57.000 By the way, to add insult to injury, Ryan, can you get this?

00:07:59.000 Paul Ryan on a piece of video comes out and just eviscerates Trump.

00:08:03.000 Paul Ryan comes out, who is a board member of Fox, and he comes out with some of the most anti-Trump stuff that we've seen.

00:08:10.000 So is he trying to influence Mike Johnson on that?

00:08:12.000 No, look, part of it is Mike Johnson might be saying, hey, how do I run a conference?

00:08:16.000 How do I schedule votes?

00:08:17.000 Like, it might be some technical stuff.

00:08:19.000 So I'll cut him some slack here, but it doesn't look good.

00:08:22.000 The day after you meet with Paul Ryan, you do exactly what Paul Ryan did when he was there.

00:08:26.000 And by the way, would a phone call have sufficed?

00:08:29.000 Speaker Johnson, can you just say, hey, you know, Paul, here you are walking out of the speaker's balcony, and it makes you wonder who's actually speaker of the house.

00:08:39.000 Is Paul Ryan speaker or is Speaker Johnson speaker?

00:08:43.000 It makes you think.

00:08:46.000 So here's where we're at.

00:08:48.000 We get the laddered CR.

00:08:51.000 I just want to make sure we're going to be proven right on this.

00:08:54.000 We're going to be totally vindicated.

00:08:58.000 Before Thanksgiving, they punt all the way to January, January 9th.

00:09:00.000 So they do no spending reforms, no spending cuts, none of that stuff.

00:09:04.000 To January, January 15th.

00:09:06.000 They're coming back January 9th.

00:09:08.000 So I'm supposed to believe after all this time off, we're going to get this triumphant consensus to cut spending within six days of January 9th to January 15th.

00:09:18.000 The swamp is undefeated, everybody.

00:09:20.000 You got to break the fever.

00:09:21.000 That's why we called.

00:09:22.000 And some people said, oh, Charlie, it's unreasonable.

00:09:23.000 It's never going to happen.

00:09:24.000 It doesn't matter.

00:09:24.000 You got to ask for the order.

00:09:25.000 You got to aim big.

00:09:26.000 They should have had almost no days off.

00:09:29.000 Fine, you take a Sabbath, you know, honor Thanksgiving, whatever.

00:09:33.000 But again, the other day I was at a grocery store, a police officer comes up, says, Charlie, listen to the show.

00:09:40.000 They said, Charlie, I was given the opportunity to work Christmas Eve and Christmas, which they get bonuses for and stuff, extra hours.

00:09:46.000 And I'm taking it, even though my kids are from college, but I got to pay bills.

00:09:50.000 I got to pay bills.

00:09:51.000 He said, I think it's disgusting.

00:09:52.000 These members of Congress don't sacrifice the way we do.

00:09:55.000 Police officers, people that work in the ER, firefighters, flight attendants, pilots.

00:10:01.000 This whole take nine weeks off for the holidays or for Christmas, it's like a foreign concept to the working class.

00:10:07.000 The working class has to keep on showing up to work. 1.00

00:10:10.000 They got to keep on making sure the planes land, making sure your luggage gets on the plane for Christmas break.

00:10:15.000 They got to make sure the restaurants stay open.

00:10:17.000 They got to make sure the grocery stores stay stocked.

00:10:18.000 I mean, this whole thing of Congress, I'm just not going to work for nine weeks.

00:10:22.000 It's unacceptable.

00:10:23.000 Speaker Johnson, and you're responsible for this.

00:10:27.000 Hey, everybody, Charlie Kirk.

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00:10:36.000 There are babies alive today about to celebrate their first Christmas because of what we did together a year ago at this time providing ultrasounds.

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00:10:45.000 Maybe you're already wondering about end of the year giving and want to give every dollar, get the most results.

00:10:50.000 Or maybe you just want to know that a girl making this decision deserves the truth.

00:10:53.000 So that next year at this time, she's picking out a Christmas stocking for her baby's first Christmas.

00:10:57.000 It's beautiful to think about.

00:10:58.000 Your gift of $15,000, somebody out there can do it.

00:11:01.000 I'm sure we'll provide not one, but two ultrasound machines.

00:11:04.000 $280 saves 10 babies.

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00:11:10.000 And right now, any gift saves twice as many babies with pre-born.

00:11:13.000 I'm a donor to this organization.

00:11:14.000 We love this organization with the Kirk family.

00:11:16.000 Clay 33-850-2229.

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00:11:29.000 Speaker Johnson's buddy, Paul Ryan, play cut 100.

00:11:33.000 Historically speaking, all of his tendencies are, you know, basically where narcissism takes him, which is whatever makes him popular makes him feel good at any given moment.

00:11:42.000 And he doesn't think in classical liberal conservative terms.

00:11:46.000 He thinks in an authoritarian way, and he's been able to get a big chunk of the Republican base to follow him because, you know, he's the culture warrior.

00:11:56.000 That's Paul Ryan riffing against Donald Trump.

00:11:59.000 By the way, that's just a taste of what he said on CNN.

00:12:01.000 It's hilarious.

00:12:02.000 You know, he's all about classical liberalism.

00:12:03.000 Where are you then, Paul Ryan, on civil liberties, not spying on people, Fourth Amendment protections?

00:12:10.000 Yeah, Paul Ryan, big classical liberal there.

00:12:12.000 By the way, that whole thing, classical liberal, at the root of it is invade the world, invite the world.

00:12:18.000 Obviously, there are some elements of modernity that are great, free speech, all that stuff.

00:12:23.000 But don't call yourself a conservative then.

00:12:26.000 That's a deeper topic for a different time.

00:12:28.000 I want to go to another story here.

00:12:31.000 Getting a lot of emails here, freedomatcharliekirk.com, all about the polls.

00:12:37.000 Is Trump really up in all of these states?

00:12:39.000 Let's play Cut 49.

00:12:41.000 The news is not great for President Biden and his campaign.

00:12:44.000 The numbers show Donald Trump leading in both Georgia and Michigan.

00:12:48.000 In Georgia, a state Biden carried by a very narrow margin in 2020.

00:12:52.000 Registered voters say they prefer Trump over Biden by 5%.

00:12:56.000 In Michigan, which Trump won in 2016, but Biden carried in 2020, our poll now showing Trump 10 points up.

00:13:03.000 Trump's margin over Biden is significantly boosted in both states by people who say they did not vote in 2020.

00:13:10.000 These less engaged voters favored Trump by 26 points in Georgia and 40 points in Michigan.

00:13:16.000 All right.

00:13:17.000 So I listened to a prominent podcaster the other day who I like.

00:13:21.000 I'm not going to say who, but you could guess who.

00:13:23.000 And believes that all the polls are an op.

00:13:26.000 And I listened to it with a grain of salt.

00:13:28.000 I said, I don't know about that.

00:13:29.000 Honestly, Donald Trump up 10 points.

00:13:32.000 It begs suspicion.

00:13:33.000 That's not happening.

00:13:34.000 Okay.

00:13:34.000 That's not happening.

00:13:37.000 And this story here from the post-millennial, Trump leads Biden in all swing states, even with third-party and independent candidates.

00:13:46.000 So this could go either way.

00:13:48.000 Look, Donald, has Donald Trump's support grown and strengthened?

00:13:53.000 Probably.

00:13:55.000 Less about Trump and more just about the state of the country. 0.99

00:13:57.000 The country is going to crap. 0.99

00:14:00.000 Border is wide open. 1.00

00:14:01.000 The economy is trash. 0.97

00:14:02.000 Wages are not keeping up with inflation. 0.98

00:14:06.000 We're borrowing $2 trillion a year.

00:14:09.000 Trump is a nine-point lead over Biden in North Carolina.

00:14:12.000 That's not going to happen.

00:14:13.000 The Arizona poll was conducted, and Arizona is actually Donald Trump's toughest state, one of his toughest battleground states.

00:14:21.000 Wisconsin voters also threw their support behind Trump, with 45% preferring the former president compared to 41% who preferred Biden.

00:14:29.000 Trump's lead grew with a third-party candidate added in, receiving 40% of the support compared to Biden's 34%.

00:14:38.000 Biden won the state in 2020, allegedly by 20,000 votes, just about.

00:14:42.000 If you look at this story here, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Wisconsin polls were conducted between the 27th and 6th.

00:14:49.000 Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania polls were conducted between 27th and December 5th.

00:14:53.000 They say they have a margin of error of three points.

00:14:56.000 So what do these polls mean?

00:14:58.000 Look, I don't trust these news agencies that publish all these different polls because they almost always have a political agenda.

00:15:06.000 The answer is this.

00:15:07.000 So you've got to get to work.

00:15:09.000 You've got to do the boring stuff.

00:15:10.000 You've got to ballot chase, register voters, secure our elections.

00:15:14.000 Because here's the thing.

00:15:15.000 If we look at these polls too much, they're going to sneak up on us and they're going to get their low-prop voters out.

00:15:19.000 This very well might also be an agenda by the news media, less about Trump and more about the Democrat base to try to get the Democrat base to go give more money, try to get the Democrat base off the sidelines.

00:15:30.000 Nothing unifies or animates the Democrat base more than opposition to Donald Trump.

00:15:35.000 It is the connective tissue of the American Democrat Party.

00:15:40.000 I'd love to hear from you guys, freedom at charliekirk.com.

00:15:43.000 Do you think that Trump is up 10 points?

00:15:44.000 And we're supposed to believe Bloomberg News is poll all of a sudden.

00:15:48.000 I don't know about that.

00:15:52.000 With the world quickly descending into chaos, the next medical crisis is just around the corner.

00:15:57.000 Whether it's another pandemic or something closer to home, preparedness is no longer an option.

00:16:01.000 It's a necessity.

00:16:02.000 That's where the wellness company comes in.

00:16:04.000 From something innocent and natural like a tick bite to COVID to the next bioweapon manufacturer in a lab, the wellness company's medical emergency kit is what you need to be prepared.

00:16:13.000 It contains life-saving medications like ivermectin, emergency antibiotics, a ZPAC, and more, as well as a guidebook to aid in the use of these life-saving medications.

00:16:24.000 The wellness company and their doctors, including Dr. Peter McCullough, Dr. James Thorpe, Dr. Harvey Riesch, Dr. Drupinski, and Dr. Robert Seek, and more, are medical professionals that you can trust.

00:16:36.000 Rest assured, knowing that you're ready for whatever the globalists throw at us next.

00:16:39.000 To order this kit, which I use and I have ready at disposal, everybody.

00:16:43.000 I'm not here to give medical advice, but it is the gold standard.

00:16:46.000 TWC.health/slash Charlie.

00:16:48.000 That is TWC.health slash Charlie.

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00:16:53.000 It contains life-saving medications like ivermectin, emergency antibiotics, ZPAC, and more.

00:16:58.000 The wellness company and their licensed doctors are medical professionals.

00:17:02.000 You could trust their medical emergency kits.

00:17:04.000 They are the gold standard to keep you safe.

00:17:07.000 Again, that is TWC.health slash Charlie.

00:17:09.000 Promo code Charlie for 10% off.

00:17:11.000 See site for details.

00:17:12.000 Prescription may be required.

00:17:14.000 Again, ivermectin, emergency antibiotics.

00:17:17.000 There's all sorts of nonsense going around right now.

00:17:19.000 COVID, RSV, flu.

00:17:21.000 Go to TWC.health slash Charlie.

00:17:24.000 Promo code Charlie.

00:17:25.000 Wellness Company and their doctors.

00:17:26.000 Check it out.

00:17:27.000 See site for details.

00:17:30.000 I got to compliment Tucker Carlson.

00:17:32.000 Fair as well.

00:17:33.000 Tucker's working his tail off right now.

00:17:34.000 I mean, he's doing every possible interview.

00:17:36.000 He's doing Twitter spaces for three hours.

00:17:38.000 He's coming to the Turning Point USA America Fest this weekend.

00:17:41.000 He's the launch of the new Tucker Carlson Network.

00:17:43.000 It's perfect timing for him.

00:17:44.000 I encourage all of you guys to sign up, whatever website it is, tuckercarlson.com.

00:17:48.000 We got to sign up.

00:17:49.000 I'm going to do it today or whatever.

00:17:51.000 I try to sign up for all this different stuff.

00:17:52.000 Dennis Praker taught me this.

00:17:53.000 Dennis Prager teaches me a lot of stuff, which is if you use content and there's an opportunity to give back to that content, you got to become a member, sign up whatever it takes.

00:18:02.000 People say, oh, it's too much.

00:18:03.000 Hold on a second.

00:18:03.000 Come on.

00:18:04.000 Five bucks, $10 a month.

00:18:06.000 You know, have one less Frappuccino or something.

00:18:09.000 Okay?

00:18:10.000 This whole thing about, oh, it's too much money.

00:18:12.000 It's all this stuff.

00:18:15.000 I just don't buy it.

00:18:16.000 I think that's a bunch of nonsense.

00:18:17.000 Let's play Cut 28.

00:18:19.000 They told you the guys torching Wendy's in 2020 were mostly peaceful.

00:18:25.000 They said that mask worked.

00:18:27.000 They told you the vax was safe.

00:18:30.000 They've tried to convince you that Russia blew up its own pipeline.

00:18:34.000 The corporate media lied too much.

00:18:37.000 And it killed them.

00:18:38.000 We're driving to see Juliana Sarns.

00:18:40.000 Believe me when I tell you.

00:18:42.000 I should be boycotting, but like fantastic, Jeff.

00:18:44.000 Thank you.

00:18:45.000 That was amazing.

00:18:49.000 TuckerCarlson.com.

00:18:51.000 I could not be happier for Tucker.

00:18:53.000 This is a great platform for him.

00:18:56.000 And Tucker, I think, understands.

00:18:57.000 That's why he says, We're not going to put everything behind a paywall.

00:19:00.000 I'm glad he's saying that because what Tucker has to say is too important for a paywall.

00:19:03.000 At the same time, you got to pay your bills.

00:19:05.000 The whole model is changing.

00:19:07.000 Whole model is changing.

00:19:08.000 TuckerCarlson.com.

00:19:10.000 We're going to have Tucker this Monday.

00:19:13.000 He's just amazing.

00:19:15.000 I'm an admirer of Tucker Carlson, big time.

00:19:19.000 Okay, we have Rich Barris.

00:19:20.000 Rich, thank you for coming on the program.

00:19:24.000 Lots of cover.

00:19:24.000 So, Rich, you're going to have to walk me off the cliff here.

00:19:27.000 Okay.

00:19:27.000 Now, the recent news makes this less likely, but let's pretend Donald Trump is a convicted felon by Labor Day.

00:19:35.000 It's possible, okay?

00:19:37.000 What does that do to his electability?

00:19:40.000 Yeah, and just to preface this, They are telling me that this means the trial is not going to happen before the election.

00:19:48.000 But, you know, my job as a pollster is to just decide what people are telling us, you know, it would do.

00:19:55.000 Honestly, Charlie, his lead right now, and there's a big question about whether it's overinflated, and that's a whole other separate conversation.

00:20:03.000 But his lead right now is big enough where it would basically make the popular vote very close, but it would still give him the edge in the Electoral College.

00:20:11.000 And I don't want to give anybody, you know, I don't want to give anybody false hope, whatever you want to call it.

00:20:19.000 But the fact is, presidential elections are A-B tests, and people are going to decide whether or not Joe Biden made their lives better.

00:20:27.000 And when you ask as a pollster a question like that, it's really tainting.

00:20:31.000 It injects a lot of bias.

00:20:32.000 People know what the right answer is.

00:20:35.000 But when they go to the voting booth or when they send in their ballot, they're going to vote for the person they think is a better president because they have two people who served as president and have records.

00:20:45.000 And that's where Joe Biden is in trouble.

00:20:47.000 That's why he's, even with a felony, that's why he's in trouble.

00:20:50.000 So, yeah, just to be clear, I don't mean to nitpick on words, Rich.

00:20:54.000 You said, you said the trial.

00:20:56.000 It's a trial.

00:20:57.000 There's so many of these things, right?

00:20:58.000 Georgia, we don't know, but this is a federal one.

00:21:02.000 And it seems like the documents is going, the documents case is really getting delayed.

00:21:06.000 They have a sane judge in Florida.

00:21:09.000 Jack Smith is trying to accelerate it, but they're getting smacked down.

00:21:13.000 This is the Jack Smith case in D.C., which is by far, in my opinion, the scariest, right?

00:21:20.000 The D.C. one is the scariest, and this recent motion is going to delay it past and post the election, which is terrific.

00:21:28.000 Georgia, New York.

00:21:30.000 Now, let me ask you state-by-state polling.

00:21:32.000 What would a Fulton County conviction mean for Georgia voters?

00:21:37.000 I don't think much.

00:21:38.000 When it comes to the cases, the DC case was the one that was politically most damning or most had the potential to be most damaging.

00:21:49.000 We've asked people this before, and they tell us, you know, some people do think that they didn't like what happened on J6 and they do hold the president somewhat culpable to what happened.

00:22:02.000 Whether it's fair or not, you know, is irrelevant.

00:22:04.000 That's how people feel.

00:22:05.000 So that the other stuff people just feel is nonsense. 0.96

00:22:09.000 You know, the Georgia case and the Alvin Bragg case in New York, they just think is ridiculous.

00:22:16.000 Even to the Florida case, when you're dealing with classified evidence, most people do tell us he's the president.

00:22:23.000 He can have whatever he wants.

00:22:25.000 I mean, that's what most people think.

00:22:27.000 You know, the January 6th issue, though, Charlie, does bother some people.

00:22:31.000 Whether or not, you know, they'll change their mind as more evidence gets aired, as it has.

00:22:35.000 You know, I mean, people, when we first polled that question, when January 6th was fresh in people's minds, it was really ugly for Republicans in the president, period.

00:22:44.000 And then as time went on, it started to get more mixed.

00:22:47.000 People had more mixed feelings.

00:22:49.000 People learned more about it.

00:22:51.000 But the DC, I'm with you on the fact that it would be the most difficult hurdle is D.C. We've done jury research in District of Columbia.

00:23:02.000 Everybody hates Donald Trump in the District of Columbia, and he would be convicted.

00:23:05.000 I mean, there's just no fair trial.

00:23:08.000 Not right.

00:23:08.000 Yeah.

00:23:09.000 So let me shift gives you, we're short on time, Rich.

00:23:11.000 So let me just shift gears.

00:23:12.000 So I'm one of the few people that thinks that Iowa is going to be a lot closer than what the polls recommend.

00:23:17.000 It just has a tendency to do that.

00:23:18.000 Late breakers.

00:23:20.000 Bob Vanderplatz came out the other day and said, quote, DeSantis has the best organized on-the-ground operation I have ever seen.

00:23:26.000 He might just be saying that, but there's a lot of organization there, right?

00:23:30.000 Ron DeSantis has pulled off a full grassly.

00:23:33.000 He's done 99 counties.

00:23:34.000 He deserves praise and credit for that.

00:23:36.000 That is not easy.

00:23:37.000 For a governor of Florida to pull a full Grassley in six months, it's impressive.

00:23:42.000 DeSantis deserves credit for that.

00:23:44.000 The polls show Donald Trump up significantly in Iowa.

00:23:47.000 Let's just geek out on Iowa for a second.

00:23:49.000 The caucus process is unique.

00:23:51.000 There could be a lot of Trump people that don't show up to the caucus sites because they assume he's going to be just fine.

00:23:59.000 I think that I'm just going to say this: part of it might be to show Trump up a lot in the polls and then he underdelivers.

00:24:05.000 And all of a sudden, we have a primary, one that the media has been starving for in the midst of all this stuff.

00:24:11.000 What do you see predict?

00:24:13.000 And if I'm wrong, Rich, correct me.

00:24:16.000 What do you see leading him to the Iowa caucus?

00:24:18.000 We're 32 days out from the Iowa caucus.

00:24:21.000 If this was two months ago, Charlie, or three months ago, I would say, you know, I would agree with you more on it.

00:24:28.000 But we did just poll it.

00:24:30.000 People can go check it out on locals or on Big Data Poll.

00:24:33.000 The DMR poll completely mirrors our polling.

00:24:36.000 And it's not just the top level.

00:24:37.000 It's what Seltzer found, what I found with Iowa State University.

00:24:42.000 Trump supporters are just completely locked in.

00:24:44.000 And caucuses are unique animals.

00:24:46.000 You do need organization.

00:24:47.000 It matters.

00:24:48.000 Trump does have it this time.

00:24:49.000 I think, you know, it's funny because after Bob Vanderplatz said that, I got a call from somebody and they told me, look, Never Back Down was supposed to build a better organization.

00:24:58.000 They didn't.

00:24:59.000 They're kind of borrowing Kim Reynolds' ground game right now. 1.00

00:25:03.000 And we've seen candidates try to do that before and then hype up their ground game.

00:25:07.000 Yeah, like Herschel Walker Kemp in Georgia.

00:25:12.000 It's hard to transfer, right?

00:25:13.000 Charlie Chris, too.

00:25:14.000 Yeah.

00:25:15.000 Yeah.

00:25:15.000 Charlie Chris tried to do it with Obama.

00:25:18.000 It didn't work out for him.

00:25:19.000 And Rick Scott beat him by 70,000 votes.

00:25:22.000 But I do think that DeSantis is probably going to outperform the polls in Iowa.

00:25:26.000 I do.

00:25:26.000 I just think, you know, how much is up for debate?

00:25:30.000 But there is, you said something that is one thing that sticks in my mind.

00:25:34.000 Trump's support, he is doing great with caucus goers who have attended a caucus before, but he's romping it with people who have never been to a caucus and plan on attending a caucus.

00:25:44.000 If those people are telling the truth, it's going to be historic turnout.

00:25:48.000 And Trump actually could outperform because he's in the 60s with this group.

00:25:52.000 If they don't show up and it's cold, folks, or if you don't know how an Iowa caucus goes, it could be snowing.

00:25:57.000 It likely will be snowing in many parts.

00:25:59.000 It's freezing and people go it.

00:26:01.000 And you don't just, you know, submit your ballot or pull a lever and walk away.

00:26:05.000 You have to stay there and debate.

00:26:08.000 The problem that other candidates have, and I actually think there's a potential that DeSantis could bottom out in some of these suburban areas because Nikki Haley's people are going to make the case.

00:26:19.000 And she just doesn't have organization to make it as well as she could, but they're going to make the case that he's doing really badly in these other states.

00:26:26.000 And some of these caucus goers, Charlie, tell us they want to win.

00:26:30.000 So, you know, even people who were looking for an alternative to Trump, what has helped him is this feeling or this general, you know, sense that, oh, he is electable after all.

00:26:40.000 So that hurt a lot of the non-Trump candidates that were making that case.

00:26:44.000 People don't believe it.

00:26:46.000 So, you know, every demographic he led by, there just didn't seem to be a lot of room.

00:26:51.000 You need lower turnout if you're a non-Trump person.

00:26:54.000 You need lower turnout and you need, you know, traditional caucus goers to really, you know, be the large, large segment of the caucus electorate.

00:27:05.000 Even, you know, even talk brought up Bob Vanderplatz, evangelicals are just not listening to him.

00:27:10.000 They're not listening to faith leaders. 0.98

00:27:12.000 They want who they want and they want Donald Trump.

00:27:14.000 He's got a 25-point lead.

00:27:16.000 That's the lead he has right now for a so-called open caucus is the biggest any candidate has ever had in the Iowa caucus, folks.

00:27:24.000 It's that's historically how big this lead is.

00:27:27.000 So I do think DeSantis has the potential to outperform.

00:27:30.000 I just don't know where he's going to get 50 plus one, Charlie.

00:27:34.000 You know, the demographics.

00:27:35.000 I mean, if Trump, no one's, first of all, no one's getting 50 plus one.

00:27:38.000 If DeSantis were to do well, he would lose by seven, right?

00:27:43.000 I don't think he's going to win.

00:27:45.000 But the way the media is framing it, they would love a sub-10 type thing, right?

00:27:50.000 And DeSantis has this whole thing that, and you might be, if he's right, I'm telling the Trump team to take it seriously, right?

00:27:56.000 I'm on Team Trump, but they got these like caucus pledge cards.

00:27:59.000 They claim they got 55,000 or 60,000.

00:28:02.000 Really quick, 30 seconds, Rich.

00:28:04.000 Is this a bunch of BS?

00:28:05.000 Like, what is this?

00:28:06.000 Caucus pledge cards?

00:28:08.000 It is.

00:28:09.000 Here's the problem with their argument, DeSantis' argument.

00:28:12.000 One, Trump campaign's doing it too, and they have more.

00:28:15.000 So that's number one.

00:28:16.000 Number two, they can change their mind.

00:28:18.000 These people may have committed six months ago, Charlie, and they're being counted in that total five months ago, three months ago.

00:28:25.000 We have spoken to a lot of people who were DeSantis four months ago and now said, you know what?

00:28:30.000 I'm going back to the president.

00:28:31.000 That's how President Trump got above 50 in our poll, above 50 in the Iowa State poll, and above 50 in the Des Moines poll.

00:28:38.000 People already were looking at other options and decided on him.

00:28:42.000 He's winning the late breakers.

00:28:44.000 And those people who sign those commitment cards, they don't owe anything.

00:28:47.000 It's on a legally binding contract.

00:28:49.000 It's a strange, it sounds like bluster.

00:28:54.000 Okay, Kirk fans, I need you to stop and pay attention to this.

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00:31:36.000 So, Rich, I want to talk about some things that are potential aberrations in the 2024 election.

00:31:41.000 Non-white voters, what are we seeing? 0.88

00:31:44.000 Based on anecdotal on the ground, Rich, I've never seen more blacks, Hispanics, Vietnamese, Cubans come up to me.

00:31:51.000 Charlie, I love your content.

00:31:52.000 I love Trump.

00:31:53.000 I mean, it's unbelievable.

00:31:54.000 You think it's the United Nations that is driving MAGA.

00:31:56.000 What's going on here, Rich?

00:31:59.000 Yeah, I've been saying for a while that MAGA is younger.

00:32:02.000 It's more non-white. 0.87

00:32:04.000 But there is something that's kind of accelerating here, Charlie.

00:32:07.000 And it's becoming this urban rural coalition, which four years ago, I was just saying this, four years ago, I never would have thought possible.

00:32:16.000 I would have told people, and I did tell people that a Republican presidential candidate is probably not going to win the popular vote for a long time.

00:32:23.000 The battle will be the Electoral College, but it's not Republicanism.

00:32:27.000 It is not.

00:32:27.000 I have to say this.

00:32:28.000 It's not Republicanism. 0.95

00:32:30.000 You know, Nikki Haley's lead in the polls in some of the polls is just ridiculous. 0.90

00:32:35.000 That's not real. 0.83

00:32:36.000 This is real.

00:32:37.000 This non-white vote shift. 0.71

00:32:39.000 It's generational, Charlie.

00:32:40.000 Some of the older non-whites obviously have a stronger connection to the Democratic Party, but the younger ones don't. 0.99

00:32:47.000 And their lives stink. 0.98

00:32:49.000 That's what they tell us.

00:32:50.000 And their lives were better.

00:32:52.000 Things were just better under Donald Trump.

00:32:54.000 So it's like something has happened.

00:32:55.000 This veil has been lifted.

00:32:58.000 And that, you know, that strong partisan connection to the Democratic Party with some of these voting groups that we, you know, have not been able, Republicans just have not been able to break through that is starting to fracture and crack.

00:33:10.000 And there is, you know, you can see it anecdotally, but we can see it in the polls, Charlie.

00:33:14.000 And I plotted it, put it on a graph.

00:33:17.000 The truth is it has been happening since the advent of Trump and he came on the political scene.

00:33:21.000 It just was really slow, you know, 6%, 8%, 10%, 12% with black voters.

00:33:27.000 And now it just boomed.

00:33:30.000 I really do think, and some people disagree, but when it comes to black voters, younger black voters, I really think these indictments made Donald Trump relatable to some of these people.

00:33:39.000 They've been looking at an unjust system for many years.

00:33:42.000 And a lot of us didn't pay attention to it because it doesn't impact us.

00:33:45.000 And now that it happened to him, they feel like they have something in common or they have or at least a common enemy, right?

00:33:51.000 And then with Hispanics, this really is, to me, it's the simple answer. 0.87

00:33:56.000 It's the economy.

00:33:57.000 The Hispanics really do care about the economy. 0.99

00:34:00.000 And again, as generations get older and new generations enter the political system, they have different rational policy choices and they're looking back.

00:34:10.000 And this is Biden's big problem.

00:34:12.000 He has a guy he's going to run against who also has a record.

00:34:16.000 We've never seen this before.

00:34:17.000 It's a Grover-Cleveland-like situation where people will look back and say, you know what?

00:34:21.000 Grover did a good job.

00:34:22.000 I want Grover back.

00:34:23.000 Things are a mess.

00:34:24.000 And it's going to be hard for Biden to overcome that, even with these voters.

00:34:28.000 This non-white vote shift is real. 0.96

00:34:30.000 It is.

00:34:31.000 So one of the things I've been trying to warn about is actually how Republicans and Trump are underperforming with 70 plus voters or 65 plus voters.

00:34:39.000 Yes.

00:34:40.000 Seniors.

00:34:41.000 Do you see this in the data too?

00:34:42.000 And what is driving this?

00:34:44.000 I do.

00:34:45.000 And we broke it down because most pollsters will just put out 65 plus.

00:34:49.000 We began breaking it down 65 to 74 and 75 plus.

00:34:54.000 And among super seniors, Republicans are still doing better.

00:34:58.000 It looks more like the traditional margin.

00:35:00.000 It's that 65 to 74 crowd.

00:35:03.000 I think, Charlie, they used to be 45 to 64, you know, and now they're just getting into that age bracket.

00:35:08.000 And it's becoming a more Democratic, it's becoming a more Democratic.

00:35:13.000 Let's understand.

00:35:13.000 These are boomers.

00:35:14.000 Okay.

00:35:14.000 These are baby boomers.

00:35:16.000 Okay.

00:35:17.000 And I've been trying to warn this for a while.

00:35:19.000 Okay.

00:35:19.000 These are largely upper middle class.

00:35:21.000 They don't like the division.

00:35:23.000 And understand, look, boomers have had, you know, rather, let's just say an easier life than their kids are going to have.

00:35:32.000 I think that's fair to say.

00:35:33.000 Yeah.

00:35:34.000 Is that right?

00:35:36.000 You're 100% right.

00:35:37.000 I always try to be fair with them, but they grew up in a very different world and have this feeling that, you know, the United States is always going to be the strongest country.

00:35:46.000 It's always going to be the fairest country.

00:35:48.000 This can't happen here.

00:35:49.000 We hear that a lot from those kind of voters.

00:35:52.000 And they have money and more security, Charlie.

00:35:55.000 So they don't, they're entering a certain period in their life.

00:35:58.000 They don't want to shake up.

00:36:00.000 They don't want, even if, even if real change requires unrest or turmoil or some kind of period of pain to change the status quo, they don't want that.

00:36:11.000 They want their social security, they want their retirement, and they want to be left alone.

00:36:15.000 So I think that plays the Democrats.

00:36:17.000 And just a warning out there to Republicans, all of these new trends are great for you, but they're also, it's turned the world upside down.

00:36:25.000 Those seniors vote.

00:36:27.000 You can rely on them to come out.

00:36:29.000 Some of the other voting groups that Republicans are doing well with now used to be Democratic voting groups and Democrats needed to make effort to get them out.

00:36:37.000 So when turnout was high, they were happy because they knew they did that.

00:36:40.000 Now higher turnout is going to benefit Trump, but you guys have got to get them out.

00:36:46.000 Check out Big Data Poll, everybody.

00:36:47.000 Rich, thank you so much.

00:36:49.000 All the best, Charlie.

00:36:50.000 Thanks so much for listening, everybody.

00:36:51.000 Email us as always freedom at charliekirk.com.

00:36:54.000 Thanks so much for listening and God bless.

00:36:59.000 For more on many of these stories and news you can trust, go to CharlieKirk.com.

The Charlie Kirk Show - December 15, 2023

The Major Shift in Non-White Voters

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