The Charlie Kirk Show - May 04, 2023


The Most Powerful Person at Fox with Matt Boyle and Mark Mitchell


Episode Stats


Length

36 minutes

Words per minute

172.3211

Word count

6,261

Sentence count

470

Harmful content

Misogyny

3

sentences flagged

Hate speech

4

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

Fox News is trying to silence conservative commentator Tucker Carlson, but they have a secret weapon in order to do so. They are using the same tactics they used to silence him when he first arrived on the airwaves. Is this a deliberate effort by the Murdochs to keep him off the air?

Transcript

Transcripts from "The Charlie Kirk Show" are sourced from the Knowledge Fight Interactive Search Tool. Explore them interactively here.
Misogyny classifications generated with MilaNLProc/bert-base-uncased-ear-misogyny .
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
00:00:00.000 Hey everybody, it's And the Charlie Kirk Show.
00:00:01.000 Matt Boyle and Mark Mitchell from Rasmussen.
00:00:04.000 We talk about Speaker McCarthy.
00:00:05.000 We talk about Tucker.
00:00:06.000 We talk about recent polling.
00:00:08.000 It's extremely interesting data that we go through today.
00:00:11.000 Email me as always, freedom at charliekirk.com and get involved with TurningPointUSA at tpusa.com.
00:00:17.000 I want to thank Cheryl for your support from California.
00:00:21.000 I want to thank Deanna from California.
00:00:23.000 I want to thank Heather from Nevada, Debbie from Texas.
00:00:28.000 I want to thank Aaron from Oklahoma, Stephen from Maryland, James from Louisiana, Larry from Illinois, and Sarah from Minnesota.
00:00:36.000 You have all helped support us at charliekirk.com slash support.
00:00:40.000 Thank you so much.
00:00:41.000 Buckle up, everybody.
00:00:42.000 Here we go.
00:00:43.000 Charlie, what you've done is incredible here.
00:00:45.000 Maybe Charlie Kirk is on the college campuses.
00:00:47.000 I want you to know we are lucky to have Charlie Kirk.
00:00:50.000 Charlie Kirk's running the White House, folks.
00:00:53.000 I want to thank Charlie.
00:00:54.000 He's an incredible guy.
00:00:56.000 His spirit, his love of this country.
00:00:57.000 He's done an amazing job building one of the most powerful youth organizations ever created.
00:01:03.000 Turning point USA. 0.65
00:01:04.000 We will not embrace the ideas that have destroyed countries, destroyed lives, and we are going to fight for freedom on campuses across the country.
00:01:13.000 That's why we are here.
00:01:16.000 Brought to you by the Loan Experts I Trust, Andrew and Todd at Sierra Pacific Mortgage at andrewandTodd.com.
00:01:26.000 With us is Matt Boyle from Breitbart.com.
00:01:29.000 Matt, how are you doing?
00:01:30.000 Doing great, Charlie.
00:01:31.000 How are you, sir?
00:01:32.000 Glad to be here.
00:01:33.000 Thank you.
00:01:33.000 You're the Washington Bureau Chief for the wonderful website, Breitbart.com.
00:01:37.000 So, Matt, let's talk your top line thoughts, your analysis on the Tucker story.
00:01:41.000 What do you think we're missing that is the most important part of the story?
00:01:45.000 Well, look, it appears as though the Murdoch family is trying to silence Tucker Carlson, the Fox News board, which includes Lachlan, James, and Rupert Murdoch, as well as Paul Ryan, the former Speaker of the House, very establishment Republican.
00:01:59.000 They want to silence Tucker through the 2024 election.
00:02:02.000 Tucker Carlson is currently under, he's not been fired from Fox News.
00:02:07.000 Everybody's saying he's fired.
00:02:08.000 They're just wrong.
00:02:10.000 His show has been canceled, but he's still under contract.
00:02:12.000 He is not allowed to go out there and negotiate something new or go to somebody new until such time as the Murdochs and Paul Ryan and the Fox board allow him out of his contract.
00:02:25.000 His contract runs through December 2024 right now.
00:02:28.000 So they are trying to silence him.
00:02:31.000 And what's really going on here is that, you know, we see these weaponized leaks by Fox staff.
00:02:38.000 Irina Briganti, who is the head of corporate communications for Fox News, has been weaponizing text messages, videos, all sorts of different stuff to different places to try to tarnish Tucker's reputation.
00:02:52.000 That's backfiring on them.
00:02:53.000 I think people are turning away from Fox.
00:02:56.000 They're turning to places like Breitbart and other conservative outlets, places like your show, other conservative media outlets that are seeing a huge spike in attention because people are turning off Fox News, which is an honorable thing.
00:03:13.000 But ultimately, what's happening here is that the Murdochs are trying to retake control of their network.
00:03:20.000 And it's not just Tucker that they got rid of.
00:03:24.000 They also got rid of Dan Bongino, who was their biggest weekend show host.
00:03:28.000 So they did that in the span of a week.
00:03:30.000 They got rid of their biggest weeknight show and their biggest weekend show host.
00:03:34.000 And they're getting rid of all sorts of different other people at lower level, folks that you don't see at home, the folks that help them, the staffers for them are all getting the axe in the boot as well.
00:03:45.000 So this is a massive purge, and it's an effort by the Murdochs to try to establish control and reorient Fox News back to not rocking the boat.
00:03:57.000 Milk toast is what to expect from Fox.
00:04:00.000 That's the word a number of people used with what to expect in terms of their content moving forward.
00:04:07.000 They're going to take a step away from being edgy, away from pushing the envelope forward, and back towards being boring observers.
00:04:16.000 But I mean, Matt, so that means the company will be cut in half.
00:04:20.000 So are they basically saying we want comfort and to be normal and not have boycotts, not have lawsuits instead of being interesting and profitable?
00:04:28.000 Is that the devil's bargain that the Murdochs are brokering?
00:04:32.000 They want to just go along to get along with everybody out there.
00:04:36.000 They didn't like when Tucker was questioning things like the U.S. funding to Ukraine.
00:04:41.000 They didn't like when he was questioning the orthodoxy regarding the handling of the pandemic.
00:04:47.000 They didn't like when Tucker was questioning the way the national security apparatus focused on certain things and not on other things.
00:04:54.000 They didn't like the way that Tucker talked and focused about immigration.
00:04:59.000 They certainly didn't like that.
00:05:00.000 And that's a major point of contention here.
00:05:04.000 And now that after the fact, they're trying to make it look like it was this text or that text or whatever to try to get him out.
00:05:11.000 It was the reason why they got him out.
00:05:13.000 But no, that's not the real reason why.
00:05:14.000 The real reason why here is that the Murdoch family has sought to reestablish control over their empire.
00:05:22.000 And they want company men.
00:05:25.000 They want yes men running around. 0.99
00:05:27.000 They want a bunch of people that are not going to actually ask tough questions of the White House or the political class.
00:05:35.000 They want to go to their garden parties and their country clubs and get along and drink champagne and have a good old time without rocking the boat at all.
00:05:44.000 Yeah, so that's the question.
00:05:45.000 Are they going to become RNC TV, right?
00:05:47.000 And just kind of normal middle of the road.
00:05:50.000 So do you have any inside information you could share, Matt, about whether or not Tucker is going to be able to get out of this contract?
00:05:57.000 Well, the negotiations are ongoing right now between his attorney and the network, but all of our sources that we've spoken to last week and since I published that first story that you had up there on the screen, I've had dozens more people from inside Fox News and with other folks with inside information coming forward to me, reaching out to me with more details.
00:06:22.000 And so we're working on several follow-ups about all of this.
00:06:25.000 But from everything we're hearing is that the Murdoch family fully intends to try to silence Tucker Carlson through the 2024 election unless the blowback continues and intensifies.
00:06:36.000 And by the way, they're also, they've ordered Irina Briganti, the corporate leadership at Fox News and at the parent company, Fox Corporation, have ordered this woman, Irina Briganti, to weaponize anything and everything she can.
00:06:54.000 She has files on every single member of the talent at Fox News.
00:06:58.000 She has files on Tucker, but she also has files on all sorts of other folks as well.
00:07:03.000 So she has been empowered to weaponize any information that she can to try to destroy the reputations of anyone that speaks out against them, that challenges their authority, that challenges the Murdoch's authority.
00:07:19.000 The most interesting thing that I've heard, though, and this we have not reported yet in a story, but I can tell you this for you, that I've got sources that say that Arena Brigante has files as well on the Murdochs, and she's manipulating them as well.
00:07:34.000 So particularly dangerous what's happening here.
00:07:40.000 And look, Fox has presented itself as a fair and balanced network for a long time, but ultimately they're not a conservative outlet.
00:07:50.000 They're not a conservative media outlet.
00:07:53.000 They're an establishment media outlet of, by, and for the establishment.
00:07:56.000 The fact that they are colluding with institutions like the New York Times to attack conservatives should end the question as to whether or not Fox is conservative.
00:08:06.000 It is not.
00:08:07.000 And the weaponization of leaks against Tucker Carlson to try to destroy his reputation, one of the most important voices we've had in a generation, is disgusting, abhorrent.
00:08:22.000 But it's part for the course.
00:08:24.000 They do this all the time to anyone and everyone, though.
00:08:26.000 The only difference is this time they're actually facing some severe consequences.
00:08:30.000 We've seen the ratings already significantly dropping and they continue to drop.
00:08:36.000 Yeah.
00:08:36.000 So is this standard operating procedure for Fox to basically have a blackmail Tickler file on everybody?
00:08:43.000 Is that right?
00:08:44.000 Yes.
00:08:45.000 Yes.
00:08:46.000 They have this exact thing going on every single anchor.
00:08:50.000 If and when the day ever comes that Sean Hannity's gone, they'll do it to him.
00:08:54.000 If and when the day ever comes that Laura Ingram's gone, they'll do it to her.
00:08:58.000 If and when the day ever comes with any of the other ones, they will do it to any of them.
00:09:04.000 And by the way, just in case you think that using some naughty language and text messages is the reason why Tucker is gone and they all of a sudden discovered it.
00:09:14.000 They all do it.
00:09:16.000 Every single one of them has used bad words and text messages.
00:09:20.000 I mean, come on, right?
00:09:21.000 Like everybody out there across the country, you know, I mean, come on, is there a text message you're not proud of?
00:09:27.000 I'm sure there is, right?
00:09:28.000 Like it's, it's just kind of standard part for the course.
00:09:31.000 And the idea that that's the reason why it's just, it's almost like they're trying to justify after the fact this atrocious action that they took, given the intense blowback that is coming.
00:09:44.000 And again, that with the latest leak to the New York Times last night of this text about the Antifa incident with the folks beating up on the Antifa guy, whatever.
00:09:57.000 What you're seeing here is that they're just scrambling to try to give some kind of a justification.
00:10:04.000 Their story doesn't add up and everybody can see through it.
00:10:08.000 And because the fact that Tucker is so beloved across the country, they're now facing severe blowback for it.
00:10:14.000 And their lies aren't going to work.
00:10:16.000 They're eventually going to have to tell the truth. 1.00
00:10:19.000 But again, the hatchet woman at the center of this whole thing is this woman named Irina Briganti. 0.94
00:10:24.000 She is the one who has been weaponizing the leaks of this information.
00:10:28.000 She is the one empowered to go to places like the New York Times and others to plant stories to try to craft this narrative that Tucker Carlson is a racist and so on and so forth.
00:10:40.000 Or Tucker Carlson said nasty words about this one or that one.
00:10:44.000 I'm telling you right now, there are similar text messages with every single member of Fox News's primetime lineup.
00:10:52.000 I know that for a fact.
00:10:54.000 They know that.
00:10:55.000 They're lying through their teeth when they're saying this stuff to the establishment media.
00:11:00.000 They know it and they're reeling right now because millions of Americans who used to watch Tucker Carlson tonight are switching to other outlets.
00:11:09.000 They are coming to Breport.
00:11:10.000 They're coming to Smacks. 1.00
00:11:12.000 They're coming to our program.
00:11:13.000 They're coming to your program.
00:11:15.000 They're going elsewhere.
00:11:16.000 They are leaving Fox News and they're not going back.
00:11:22.000 I want to talk about ReliefFactor.com.
00:11:24.000 I want you guys to check out ReliefFactor.com, 100% drug-free, knee pain, back pain, joint pain, elbow pain.
00:11:29.000 Check out Relief Factor Energy.
00:11:31.000 Help makes your body make nutrients readily available.
00:11:35.000 Relief Factor Sleep.
00:11:36.000 I know a lot of you are probably having trouble sleeping.
00:11:38.000 Relief Factor Sleep could be the best solution for you.
00:11:41.000 Everybody goes to bed.
00:11:42.000 Not everybody sleeps.
00:11:44.000 We're all about helping people live lives that are filled with connection, exploration, passion, and emotion.
00:11:49.000 That is what his life is all about.
00:11:50.000 Make sure you guys are sleeping well.
00:11:52.000 It's a major part of life.
00:11:54.000 Check it out right now, relieffactor.com, relieffactor.com.
00:12:00.000 So, Matt, I want to get to some other stories here that we have.
00:12:03.000 You have a story here for Breitbart.com.
00:12:07.000 I want to read the headline: Speaker McCarthy in video special: How the world has changed, a new Republican majority in House.
00:12:14.000 I'll never give up.
00:12:15.000 Matt, you've had the opportunity to interview him a couple times.
00:12:18.000 How would you grade Speaker McCarthy as how he's doing right now as head of the House of Representatives?
00:12:22.000 I mean, I would say he's pretty much an A plus, right?
00:12:27.000 Like, I mean, I think that he's doing everything that he said he was going to do over the course of the beginning of the year.
00:12:34.000 And if anything, that really rambunctious first week as speaker or the week leading up to him being the speaker, the first week of the Republican majority, where they had 15 separate speakership elections.
00:12:45.000 We talked about this in the interviews.
00:12:46.000 We did an hour on-camera interview.
00:12:50.000 We talked about a whole number of different topics: immigration, China, the border, the debt ceiling was a big part of it.
00:12:58.000 But one of the things we opened with was the new Republican majority is like.
00:13:03.000 And that was very much focused on what that first week was like.
00:13:07.000 And he talked about how it was a pretty tough week, 15 rounds like Rocky Balboa, but he made it through it.
00:13:17.000 And he said that while it was tough going through it and he wouldn't wish that on anyone, it's still, he thinks that that made it, made the House Republicans come a little bit closer together.
00:13:27.000 And I think you're seeing that happen right now, where they just pulled off the remarkable passage of a debt ceiling deal that has forced President Biden to the table to negotiate.
00:13:37.000 And now the Senate Republicans are united behind the House Republicans heading into these negotiations next week at the White House.
00:13:44.000 So there are a lot of things to like about what McCarthy's done as speaker so far.
00:13:52.000 And I think, you know, one of the things he talked about was promises made, promises kept.
00:13:56.000 He said that he wanted to follow through on the things that he said he was going to do.
00:14:00.000 And for generally speaking, he's done that.
00:14:02.000 So I agree with a lot of that.
00:14:04.000 The only one where I'm a little bit, you know, let down, and I, and Kevin's a friend and I think he's been great, is the Ukraine thing.
00:14:11.000 Has he changed his opinion on it?
00:14:12.000 I want to make sure we get this accurately, right, Matt?
00:14:14.000 And reasonable people can disagree.
00:14:17.000 What is McCarthy's view on right?
00:14:20.000 He's perfect.
00:14:21.000 Again, I don't know if he's changed his position, so to speak.
00:14:24.000 One of the, it wasn't one of the topics that, to be to be fair to him, it wasn't one of the topics we got to when I spent an hour with him in the speaker's office.
00:14:32.000 We had a lot of other stuff we had to talk about.
00:14:33.000 We talked about him releasing some of the January 6th tapes.
00:14:36.000 That took up a big part of the interview.
00:14:39.000 The big changes that he's made as speaker took up a big part of the interview.
00:14:42.000 Immigration China took up a big part.
00:14:44.000 So we didn't get to Ukraine.
00:14:45.000 It was on my list, but you can't get everything you want in an interview.
00:14:49.000 So you kind of go in there and get what you can.
00:14:51.000 And then when time is up, you got to move on.
00:14:55.000 Yeah.
00:14:56.000 But yeah, his position, I mean, I'm not a fan of it either, but again, nobody's perfect.
00:15:03.000 So that's interesting.
00:15:05.000 I haven't seen the full interview.
00:15:06.000 Where are the January 6th tapes now that Tucker is out at Fox?
00:15:10.000 Yeah, so Speaker McCarthy told me in the interview that he's planning to release them all publicly.
00:15:15.000 So they're making redactions to remove security things.
00:15:22.000 Like, so, you know, there are secret doors in the Capitol that they don't want out there.
00:15:25.000 There are security procedures and whatever.
00:15:27.000 They've got to remove all that stuff.
00:15:29.000 But he said that they're moving in that direction.
00:15:31.000 He also said later at a press conference at the House GOP retreat about a week or so after we taped this interview.
00:15:36.000 We published the full thing this weekend, but the interview was taped back in March, right after he had released the tapes, some of the tapes to Tucker.
00:15:48.000 But he said in mid-March that any news organization that would like to schedule an appointment with the speaker's office to go in and review the tapes in person in camera at the house, I would be willing to make that happen.
00:15:59.000 So I know that we're working on making that happen.
00:16:02.000 I know other news organizations are as well.
00:16:04.000 So you think we can expect tens of thousands of hours of footage coming out soon publicly?
00:16:11.000 I don't know if that will happen.
00:16:14.000 If they'll like just dump it all on the internet or not, but he because he said at a press conference at the House GOP retreat that any news organization that would like to come in and review it.
00:16:24.000 So I know you can, I can.
00:16:25.000 Our team, I know he's working on setting up that.
00:16:28.000 And I know that other news organizations are as well.
00:16:31.000 Well, I think it's a great idea.
00:16:32.000 I'm going to go and see it for sure.
00:16:33.000 Well, everyone, check out Breitbart.com.
00:16:35.000 Anything in closing, Matt, you want to plug?
00:16:37.000 We have 30 seconds remaining.
00:16:38.000 Yeah, look, just Breitbart.com is where you can find all of our stuff.
00:16:42.000 And I'm also on True Social, which I think is booming.
00:16:46.000 I'm at RealMap Oil on True Social.
00:16:48.000 I don't do Twitter anymore.
00:16:48.000 I do True Social.
00:16:50.000 Very good.
00:16:50.000 Matt, thank you so much.
00:16:51.000 Talk to you soon.
00:16:52.000 Yep.
00:16:53.000 Thanks so much.
00:16:56.000 Where have all the mortgage companies gone?
00:16:58.000 With all the here today, gone tomorrow companies out there.
00:17:00.000 It's important to use seasoned mortgage experts with years of experience.
00:17:04.000 Use the company I personally use for my mortgage needs.
00:17:07.000 I've used them, and I could tell you Andrew Del Rey and Todd of Akian at Sierra Pacific Mortgage make the process enjoyable.
00:17:13.000 Yes, they're friends of mine.
00:17:14.000 Yes, they're Christians.
00:17:15.000 Yes, they're conservatives.
00:17:16.000 And no, they're not wokeys, but they make it enjoyable. 0.81
00:17:19.000 They have fun with you.
00:17:21.000 They ask you the important questions.
00:17:22.000 They don't waste your time.
00:17:23.000 I've used them for mortgage stuff, and you should too.
00:17:26.000 Go to AndrewandTodd.com.
00:17:28.000 They've been in the mortgage business for decades, and they're more than problem solvers.
00:17:32.000 They're solution providers.
00:17:34.000 Many of the clients they help require special solutions to their tough loan challenges.
00:17:38.000 I had a whole bunch of nonsense they had to sort out, and they've been fabulous.
00:17:42.000 They're really great, and they were there for me.
00:17:44.000 They text you back instantaneously.
00:17:46.000 They love finding loan solutions for people who are self-employed, first-time homebuyers, real estate investors, or people with credit challenges.
00:17:53.000 And if you're considering a reverse mortgage, they can help answer all your questions.
00:17:57.000 If you or someone you know is having a mortgage challenge, let them help.
00:18:01.000 Go to andrewandtodd.com.
00:18:04.000 Tell them Charlie Kirk sent you.
00:18:05.000 In fact, they would love to hear that.
00:18:07.000 They're good friends.
00:18:08.000 We have dinner often.
00:18:09.000 I think the world of them, they've helped me personally.
00:18:11.000 So check it out.
00:18:12.000 No more woke banks.
00:18:12.000 They hate you.
00:18:13.000 Don't take out a mortgage from a company that hates you.
00:18:16.000 Go somewhere that wants to do business with you.
00:18:18.000 AndrewandTodd.com or call 88888 1172.
00:18:22.000 I only tell you to use them because I've used them.
00:18:24.000 If you're young, you want to buy a home, first-time homeowner.
00:18:27.000 It's good to start building equity.
00:18:28.000 Look, I'm not telling you what's going to happen, but it looks like the housing market might be surging up a little bit.
00:18:33.000 Go to Andrewandtodd.com.
00:18:34.000 That's AndrewandTodd.com.
00:18:35.000 Call 888 8881172 AndrewandTodd.com.
00:18:42.000 Very important conversation we're about to have here.
00:18:44.000 Tons of data we're about to pour over.
00:18:46.000 Mark Mitchell, who's the chief pollster for Rasmussen, joins us now.
00:18:49.000 Mark, welcome to the program.
00:18:52.000 Hi, good to be here again.
00:18:53.000 It is definitely a lot of numbers.
00:18:55.000 Yeah, that is.
00:18:56.000 So I have all these charts and graphs in front of me.
00:18:59.000 And why don't you just start with the most significant and we'll work our way through it?
00:19:05.000 We did this poll and it was a sponsored poll.
00:19:07.000 So everybody can go to our website and download this stuff and look at for themselves.
00:19:11.000 There's like 20, 25 questions here, really dense.
00:19:15.000 But the poll was done for one very specific reason.
00:19:18.000 Our sponsor for this poll, Larry Ward from Political Media, was really sick of the infighting that he sees on the conservative side.
00:19:27.000 And he thinks that DeSantis is perceived to be very favorable among Republicans, just as Donald Trump is, and that potentially together, the both of them on the same ticket might be better in whole than in part.
00:19:41.000 And so that was what we set out to prove.
00:19:44.000 And I think we proved it pretty resoundingly.
00:19:47.000 So we started by setting a benchmark of how would Trump do alone in a 2024 rematch against President Joe Biden.
00:19:56.000 And Donald Trump beats him 48% to 41% in this poll, which is in line with what we saw about a month ago when we ran that same question.
00:20:06.000 Then the next thing we did was we said if Florida Governor Ron DeSantis was Donald Trump's running mate against Joe Biden, would you vote for Joe Biden and Kamala Harris or DeSantis Trump?
00:20:17.000 And now Trump does better.
00:20:19.000 So we have Trump and DeSantis beating Biden and Harris 51% to 43%, which is a slightly larger lead, 8% instead of 7%, but it gets the Trump ticket over the 50% hurdle, which is very important.
00:20:36.000 But we've tried, tested the Trump-Biden matchup quite a few times since 2020, and Trump only got above that 50% hurdle one time.
00:20:46.000 And it was September of 2021 when Marines were blowing up in Afghanistan and we were leaving billions of dollars of equipment behind in Bagram.
00:20:55.000 So this is really, I think, big news.
00:20:59.000 Now, we also put other candidates in there to test.
00:21:02.000 We tested Kerry Lake on the Trump ticket. 0.93
00:21:05.000 We tested Marjorie Taylor Greene on the Trump ticket.
00:21:07.000 And DeSantis brought the most to the ticket.
00:21:10.000 Now, when we had tested DeSantis versus Trump and Biden versus Trump, sorry, DeSantis versus Biden and Trump versus Biden a month ago, and we found that they did almost about equally, but Ron DeSantis does better than Trump in a couple of key demographics that you would probably perceive to be lefter leaning, 18 to 39-year-olds, graduate degrees, upper incomes.
00:21:35.000 And it turns out he really does bring that support to a Trump ticket a few points here and there, which really amounts to big numbers on the national scale.
00:21:45.000 So you asked how likely is that cheating affected the outcome of the 2020 election?
00:21:50.000 What did you learn?
00:21:53.000 That's also a record setter for us.
00:21:55.000 Again, a perennial favorite.
00:21:57.000 We've been literally, I think, the only pollster routinely asking questions about election fraud.
00:22:04.000 And the trend seems to be that as time accrues between us and the 2020 election, and as mainstream corporate news media ignores potential evidence of election fraud, people's concerns have not gone away.
00:22:21.000 In fact, they've actually increased.
00:22:23.000 So in this question, now 62% of all likely voters think that it's at least somewhat likely that cheating affected the outcome of the 2020 presidential election.
00:22:35.000 The implication there is that maybe the outcome would have been different if said cheating hadn't happened.
00:22:35.000 Wow.
00:22:40.000 So a very important question.
00:22:42.000 That 62% number is the highest we've ever seen.
00:22:45.000 The previous record was 58%.
00:22:48.000 So the media can duck all of these, they can duck these concerns as long as they want.
00:22:55.000 People are not going to stop thinking that there's fraud in elections.
00:22:59.000 And even in the 2022 election, we got a very similar signal recently.
00:23:03.000 About that same 62% of people think that cheating affected 2022 as well.
00:23:08.000 And of course, how could they not with some of the things that we saw coming out of Maricopa County and whatnot?
00:23:13.000 That's extraordinary.
00:23:14.000 Let's go to another.
00:23:16.000 No matter how hard they try, they can't stifle all of our thoughts.
00:23:19.000 Let's go to another one here.
00:23:20.000 Just DeSantis' general favorability versus Trump's general favorability.
00:23:25.000 I think you touched on this, but you would think that DeSantis is actually more popular, but that's not necessarily the case.
00:23:32.000 Walk us through it.
00:23:34.000 DeSantis and Trump recently, i.e., last six months, the last couple of times we've asked this question, have all been roughly equivalent among Republicans At least somewhat favorable level, which I'm not sure is the most important number.
00:23:50.000 I think it's the very favorable numbers.
00:23:53.000 So we're talking like since the 2022 election, Trump has been in the mid to high 70s among Republicans for at least somewhat favorable.
00:24:01.000 But Republicans were kind of upset after November, and Trump's very favorable numbers were only really in the high 40s.
00:24:09.000 Really, since then, and DeSantis was doing slightly better among Republicans with a number over 50.
00:24:15.000 But after we put some distance between November and after we got the speakership battle behind us, and after Trump really picked up his campaigning, he surged among Republicans, coming back up to 80%, which is pretty high, and getting now in the high 50s very favorable among Republicans.
00:24:35.000 But what you just put on the screen, to me, is the stunner of everywhere in this poll.
00:24:41.000 I was on War Room, I think about a month ago, talking about a recent set of Trump favorability numbers, and I was astounded that we had Trump at 53%.
00:24:50.000 Now, keep in mind, that's with Joe Biden in our numbers sitting at about 46% today.
00:24:56.000 So with a 7% advantage on Trump over Biden, that was huge.
00:25:01.000 But now, today in this poll, we have Trump at 59% among all likely voters, which is, I mean, just absolutely incredible.
00:25:11.000 It's almost 13 points more than Biden is doing right now.
00:25:15.000 And it's across the board in almost every demographic.
00:25:18.000 Now, DeSantis's numbers are kind of similar.
00:25:21.000 He does 60% at least somewhat favorable with everybody, but he has a four-point less very favorable number, 33% instead of 37%.
00:25:31.000 So I think from DeSantis' perspective, he's gotten less negative press, but he's gotten a lot of nationwide positive recognition.
00:25:41.000 And so he's doing just as well as Trump from a favorability perspective.
00:25:48.000 That's not necessarily what counts, right?
00:25:50.000 What counts is GOP primary vote, right?
00:25:53.000 And in our polling, we have Trump winning very solidly among Republicans.
00:25:59.000 So I think Republicans like DeSantis.
00:26:02.000 I think the nation still relatively likes DeSantis, especially compared to Biden, about equivalently to Trump.
00:26:09.000 But DeSantis doesn't have a million investigations and all the legal problems and all the negative press.
00:26:16.000 So I think what people are worried about is polling versus electoral outcomes.
00:26:22.000 Let me ask a first question I had, then I'll get to the second one.
00:26:24.000 Is this national or is this state by state?
00:26:26.000 Because really the whole election comes down to three states, Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin.
00:26:34.000 These are national numbers.
00:26:35.000 It's regionally targeted.
00:26:37.000 Now, if I were going to do a 2,000, 3,000 person national poll, I would probably target by state.
00:26:43.000 This was 1,050.
00:26:45.000 So we target to get a pretty good spread of like Northeast, South, the West, Midwest.
00:26:52.000 You know, because your Northeast Republican is not necessarily the same as a Southern Republican.
00:26:56.000 And the way that should be perceived, these are always like these kinds of intercycle polls that aren't doing necessarily like time-sensitive horse races, right?
00:27:08.000 This is like a temperature check.
00:27:11.000 And the temperature shows like Trump's doing really great right now.
00:27:14.000 Now, obviously, we're a long way from an election.
00:27:18.000 And the onus is on people who disagree with these numbers to run their own poll and prove me wrong.
00:27:24.000 And what I think they'd find is that they would validate these numbers.
00:27:28.000 I'm very confident with our national, I'm pretty confident that we're dialed in.
00:27:33.000 So in the 2022, you know, I was on an election night on your show.
00:27:38.000 And I was kind of confused about what the signs pointed to because Republicans did have a massive lead coming into 2022 and it ticked away bit by bit.
00:27:38.000 We discussed this.
00:27:50.000 And now, why did that happen?
00:27:52.000 And I think the people that answer likely voter screen polls in the middle of a cycle aren't necessarily the same as the one who will answer polls in September.
00:27:59.000 I think there's part of that.
00:28:00.000 I think the issue set shifted quite a bit when the Dobbs decision came down.
00:28:05.000 But I also think Democrats have a really great machine.
00:28:08.000 And so part of the balance is I go out there, I ask people questions, I get data, right?
00:28:13.000 But part of for that data to be accurate, I also have to predict what the election turnout is going to be, which let's just say in a 20 post-2018 world has been incredibly challenging.
00:28:25.000 And in retrospect, we in Raspboxon actually did a pretty good job.
00:28:29.000 Our numbers actually came out.
00:28:31.000 You know, obviously, it depends on how you benchmark these things.
00:28:33.000 But if you take every generic ballot poll we ran from September to November and average them, it comes out to Republicans plus four.
00:28:41.000 And the Cook report, you know, final results, National House popular vote was Republicans 2.8.
00:28:48.000 So at a national level, we were off 1.2%.
00:28:51.000 Now, obviously, that equates to hundreds of thousands of votes.
00:28:55.000 But I think that's pretty dialed in.
00:28:57.000 And since then, we've added a point to Democrats to compensate for that fact.
00:29:02.000 But the challenge is always the turnout.
00:29:05.000 And people say, wow, man, the Republicans should have done better or what a loss.
00:29:09.000 If you look at the returnout numbers, the real story is the Democrats had a massive underperformance.
00:29:15.000 So Democrats have traditionally turned out in the mid-30s in midterm elections.
00:29:21.000 And then in 2018, out of nowhere, before COVID, before all of this massive mail-in ballots, they turned out over 60 million people out of nowhere.
00:29:30.000 And of course, some of that was the Trump is a Russian agent vote, but not all of it.
00:29:36.000 And it was everywhere across the country.
00:29:38.000 And of course, everybody was dumbfounded.
00:29:40.000 Now, after 2020, 2018 didn't get a lot of attention.
00:29:44.000 But in many ways, the huge, massive Democrat outperformance in 2020 was dwarfed from a percentage basis of what the Democrats did in 2018.
00:29:54.000 So with Democrats turning out 61 or 62, something like that in 2018, they only turned out high 40s.
00:30:01.000 I think it was 49 million.
00:30:03.000 They only turned out, so they turned out over 10 million less than they did in 2018 in this election.
00:30:08.000 And the Republicans kind of did what Republicans do, which is chip along, adding a million here, 2 million there every cycle, and increased.
00:30:17.000 And I think in retrospect, it's probably pretty fascinating that the Republicans came out on top and didn't do worse than they potentially could have otherwise.
00:30:26.000 So I think a lot of it, there's this massive sort of chess versus checkers game going on.
00:30:32.000 And that's absolutely far enough.
00:30:34.000 I want to make sure I'm understanding those numbers.
00:30:35.000 We're about to a break.
00:30:36.000 We'll keep you for another segment.
00:30:38.000 From what I understand is that the midterms were disappointing for us while the Democrats had an 11 million less for the 2022 midterms than did an 18.
00:30:49.000 Basically, what I'm hearing is that the Democrats have tens of millions of potential voters they can get out in 2024 that Republicans do not have.
00:30:57.000 I want to make sure I'm understanding that correctly.
00:31:00.000 So Mark, explain to us, was I understanding that correctly, the Democrats have a greater potential for a turnout machine.
00:31:07.000 Is that right?
00:31:08.000 I think since 2018, I think, I mean, it was probably like a three Sigma turnout in 2018, if you go back and look at their past midterm performance.
00:31:19.000 And I'm still learning as I do this.
00:31:21.000 Every day I learn.
00:31:22.000 I try and learn from the numbers and figure out what I'm seeing and judge the signal I'm getting and be a better pollster.
00:31:30.000 And I was just really surprised that the things that I was seeing that I think others would agree with is just the sheer latent opportunity that Republicans had to convert the issue set and the momentum in the polling into an increase in turnout that really was ultimately at the end of the day not too impressive.
00:31:53.000 And there's probably a ton of reasons.
00:31:55.000 You probably know some of these reasons better than I do, but that's just the fact of the matter.
00:32:01.000 Yeah.
00:32:01.000 And so that's an interesting calculation as we enter into 2022.
00:32:07.000 So 2024.
00:32:08.000 So let me ask you, what do you think are the biggest changes you've seen in your polling, not just this poll, but broadly?
00:32:13.000 A notable change that conservatives should take and internalize.
00:32:18.000 Like, wow, something is profoundly changing the trajectory, an opinion.
00:32:23.000 What are you seeing in polling that you think is moving in a new direction?
00:32:30.000 I'll try not to be a pessimist here.
00:32:33.000 I think they should download this poll here and look at it.
00:32:38.000 And I think on the positive side of the coin, I would say that MAGA issues are very popular still, that the Democrat Party is more conservative than the current Democrat administration, that Trump's favorability numbers are doing really great right now.
00:32:56.000 And Biden's approval, although people become used to him, people think he's less threatening after he lost that Congress.
00:33:04.000 His numbers are still pretty low.
00:33:07.000 And I think that's all still great news.
00:33:10.000 I think that there's, you know, Trump turned out more Republicans than any presidential Republican candidate in history.
00:33:18.000 I think that he has to have picked up more support since then.
00:33:22.000 And I don't see anything in the polling to, you know, really counter that.
00:33:26.000 Now, on the negative side of the coin, I will say that the left is very, very effective and manipulating public opinion.
00:33:36.000 And as I go through all the historical polling, I find all this evidence.
00:33:41.000 We've been in business for almost 20 years and we've polled on not just election horse races, but on really important social issues.
00:33:50.000 And the left is getting lefter in a very, very rapid way.
00:33:56.000 On some things, you can look at the results and say, all right, that's not as concerning as I would have thought.
00:34:02.000 For instance, there are low double-digit peoples in the United States, likely voters, who actually agree that babies should be aborted after six months into the term.
00:34:13.000 It's a much lower number than you would think based on how popular the concept of pro-choice is.
00:34:19.000 But on other things, it is moving very rapidly.
00:34:23.000 For instance, the idea of reparations in America has really shifted a lot in the last five or six years.
00:34:30.000 And are they out there every night in the press hammering home how important reparations are?
00:34:35.000 No, it's almost this way in which it's just internalized into all of the Democrat platforms.
00:34:41.000 And sure enough, the Democrats lead everyone else in the country left.
00:34:47.000 It's a pretty solid majority of Democrats now that want reparations.
00:34:50.000 And if you go five, six years back, it was, I think it was like less than a third of them wanted it.
00:34:56.000 So there's just a ton of examples like that that show that the current paradigm of conservatism reaching public opinion, manipulating, changing, directing public opinion, it's like, again, checkers versus chess.
00:35:13.000 Mark, we'll have to have you on soon.
00:35:15.000 Thanks so much.
00:35:15.000 We're out of time.
00:35:16.000 Russ Musin, polling reports.
00:35:18.000 Check it out.
00:35:18.000 Thanks so much.
00:35:19.000 Thanks for having me on.
00:35:20.000 Email us freedom at charliekirk.com and subscribe to the Charlie Kirk Show podcast.
00:35:24.000 Open up your podcast app and type in Charlie Kirk Show.
00:35:28.000 That's right, the Charlie Kirk Show.
00:35:30.000 And you guys can download the latest podcasts and episodes.
00:35:37.000 If you're in the car on the radio and you're like, oh man, I wish I could have listened to that conversation more.
00:35:41.000 I only caught a piece of this.
00:35:42.000 That's where the podcast comes in handy.
00:35:45.000 And also, we have exclusive podcast content, and we are pouring into that podcast.
00:35:49.000 We're doing very, very well.
00:35:50.000 One of the top conservative podcasts out there.
00:35:53.000 Open up the podcast appetite at Charlie Kirk Show.
00:35:56.000 You can also email me, freedom at charliekirk.com.
00:35:58.000 I love hearing from you.
00:36:00.000 And there's so much news that we didn't get to today.
00:36:02.000 Tomorrow we're going to cover the woke military.
00:36:04.000 It's only getting worse, and it's a very, very important story, amongst many other things.
00:36:09.000 So I want to hear from you, freedom at charliekirk.com.
00:36:11.000 God bless you guys.
00:36:12.000 We'll see you tomorrow.
00:36:16.000 For more on many of these stories and news you can trust, go to CharlieKirk.com.