00:00:10.000We talk about the state of the union, and I think we do a very good job in this episode of breaking down what Biden is facing, how he is attacking this speech tonight, what Democrats are looking for, the different factions within his own party that he's going to be playing to and playing against, as well as Speaker Johnson.
00:00:27.000We're going to be looking at Speaker Johnson.
00:01:05.000We will not embrace the ideas that have destroyed countries, destroyed lives, and we are going to fight for freedom on campuses across the country.
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00:02:17.000And there's so many storylines this year, being an election year, 2024, everything's hinging on November.
00:02:26.000But what's really interesting is how Joe Biden is actually really at a he's facing off not just against rock-ribbed, hard-right Republicans, MAGA extremists.
00:02:37.000He's facing off against parties or factions within his own party.
00:02:43.000This is perhaps one of the more interesting storylines.
00:03:06.000So I want to walk through some of these factions with you.
00:03:10.000So we know that in Michigan, for example, we had a hundred thousand in the Democrat primary, we had a hundred thousand voters mark their ballots as uncommitted.
00:05:45.000It's not the custom that we've grown used to in American politics where you issue all these public platitudes and you try and say nice things, but then behind closed door, you negotiate.
00:05:57.000No, Trump comes out and he says NATO better pay its bills.
00:08:07.000So you've got sort of Joe Biden facing these headwinds to the center, the center left from the John Fettermans of the world.
00:08:15.000And then you also have the Hispanic caucus, the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, that's outraged administration and other Democrats failed to engage them in the border talk.
00:08:26.000Now they're mad that the now dead, thankfully, bipartisan, and I'm going to use air quotes on that too, border bill went too far in modifying asylum claims.
00:08:38.000So Joe Biden is in a very, very precarious position.
00:08:43.000And a lot of that is going to come to the fore tonight at the State of the Union.
00:08:47.000Interesting to see how he's going to try and bring those coalitions together or if he's going to pick one over the other.
00:08:58.000Now, the main takeaway here is that you have a historically unpopular president.
00:09:06.000Polling is cataclysmic for the Biden administration, the Biden regime.
00:09:12.000Now, all of this, I'm assuming this Democrat coalition that's pieced together with duct tape and bubblegum would forgive Joe Biden for a lot of these sins if he was popular, if he was over 50%.
00:09:31.000They're going to make tonight all about abortion.
00:09:35.000Abortion, health care, IVF, these are going to be the things.
00:09:38.000Even though the vast majority of conservatives, probably in Congress as well, support things like IVF as the Alabama brought this to the fore.
00:09:47.000The problem is they are very strategic.
00:09:51.000They're putting these referendums on the ballot in a lot of key swing states heading into November.
00:09:58.000They're going to make this all about Republicans want to take away your freedom to abort your child.
00:11:21.000He could have got his message out to 100 million people, chose to forego that opportunity.
00:11:27.000And instead, now we're doing this state of the union.
00:11:30.000So if you're Biden's team, not only do you have this civil war brewing within the Democrat coalition that's fracturing massively, and some of the polling will show you just how bad it's fracturing.
00:12:00.000We don't know if these people are going to eventually come home to the Democrats or if they're going to vote for Jill Stein or they're going to vote for RFK.
00:12:08.000I could see a lot, and I mean a lot of the younger voters going for RFK.
00:12:13.000So, that is one of the dynamics to see how much he's going to try and make up the ground with abortion.
00:12:19.000Now, as a pro-lifer, for the life of me, I will never get my head around why people like to kill babies so much.
00:12:28.000I think it's this psychological security blanket that if something were to happen, if they were to get pregnant with an unwanted pregnancy, that they would have an outcard.
00:12:47.000I think we need to, as a conservative movement, get so much better at messaging about abortion, the beauty of life.
00:12:54.000Honestly, this is why faith is so important.
00:12:56.000As we lose our faith in this country, abortion becomes more and more of a normalized thing that people can use as a get out of jail card, as they see it.
00:13:09.000And the psychology behind it is incredible, but it is a powerful, powerful voting incentive.
00:13:15.000When we talk about voting incentives for people, this is something we always talk about behind the scenes on the show: is that when you, as a political movement or force, or party, are attempting to take something from somebody or write, that it becomes very visceral.
00:13:32.000So, it's a very challenging political thing to accomplish.
00:13:37.000It doesn't mean it's not the right thing for us to do and pursue and to keep messaging and educating, but it's very, very challenging.
00:13:44.000This is why gun rights have been such a pesky thorn in the left sides.
00:13:49.000Not only is it enshrined in our Constitution, but you're also taking a right away from gun-owning Americans.
00:13:56.000They don't like that, they will vote against that.
00:13:59.000So, we have our single-issue voters on our side as well.
00:14:02.000I think it's a huge opportunity, especially in the when you look at Michigan, when you look at Wisconsin, when you look at Pennsylvania, there are large swaths of voters that are hunters, that are gun owners.
00:14:15.000They tend to be the types that want to stay off the grid, they don't want to necessarily get involved in the civic process and vote, and they are not registered.
00:14:23.000So, at Turning Point Action, working with guys like Scott Pressler and other groups, we're working actively to register these voters and to make sure they understand that that side of the aisle, the Democrats, want to take your vote, your right away to own these guns, to hunt, to exercise the freedoms that your father and your grandfather passed down to you.
00:14:43.000So, basically, what this is going to be, if I had to predict what's going to happen tonight, you are going to have Joe Biden lean on abortion, abortion, abortion.
00:14:54.000And this is sort of, and you know, and you're going to see all the infighting on their side, certainly, but that is going to be their main thing.
00:15:02.000They're going to talk about health care, women.
00:15:05.000They know they're making gains with women while men are becoming more and more conservative at the younger level, especially.
00:17:23.000This is Bill Clinton on illegal immigration.
00:17:26.000All Americans, not only in the states most heavily affected, but in every place in this country, are rightly disturbed by the large numbers of illegal aliens entering our country.
00:17:38.000The jobs they hold might otherwise be held by citizens or legal immigrants.
00:17:42.000The public service they use impose burdens on our taxpayers.
00:17:46.000That's why our administration has moved aggressively to secure our borders more by hiring a record number of new border guards, by deporting twice as many criminal aliens as ever before, by cracking down on illegal hiring, by barring welfare benefits to illegal aliens.
00:18:02.000In the budget I will present to you, we will try to do more.
00:18:06.000Man, Bill Clinton sounds like a Republican.
00:19:01.000This is Biden when he says Iranian instead of Ukrainian in one of his mini gaffes, 77.
00:19:08.000In the battle between democracy and autocracies, democracies are rising to the moment, and the world is clearly choosing the side of peace and security.
00:19:43.000So Democrats are worried tonight whether or not Joe Biden could get pumped full of enough, you know, B-12 shots and then some, whatever drugs they're pumping into that.
00:19:53.000But yeah, he never corrected himself, totally ruined the applause line.
00:21:08.000Could we get better than Speaker Johnson?
00:21:10.000I do believe that Speaker Johnson is a rock rib conservative.
00:21:14.000He is trying to keep a two-seat majority intact, which means he has to deal with the Dom Bacons of the world, which are basically, you know, Democrats, but they're in the Republican caucus.
00:21:28.000And so we're trying to work with these to keep things together.
00:21:31.000Now, I know a lot of people want to shut the government down.
00:21:38.000But there are, and we've gotten this from sources inside the conference that say that the polling is so bad on that that we would lose the House in November if we shut it down.
00:21:52.000The fact that we're spending a trillion dollars we're running trillion dollar deficits every hundred days to six months is absolutely unacceptable.
00:24:07.000$3.5 million for Detroit's Thanksgiving Day parade.
00:24:11.000Again, they're trying to buy votes in Michigan.
00:24:13.000$2.7 million for a bike park in White Sulphur Springs, West Virginia, which is, you know, essentially giving them $1,200, $1,200 for every resident of the city.
00:24:27.000I mean, they were trying to get this kinky sex thing club funded.
00:24:32.000Anyways, Republicans did manage to remove a policy at the VA which put a flag on veterans in the federal gun background check system if they were found incompetent to handle their finances.
00:24:46.000One of those foot-in-the-door policies that the left likes to get into to basically start a nationwide gun tracking system.
00:24:55.000So it's, you know, there were a few wins.
00:24:58.000You know, I guess the deal keeps domestic spending flat while slightly raising military spending.
00:25:04.000It does have cuts to the ATF, FBI, and some environmental programs.
00:25:21.000Would you rather, Speaker Johnson, try and thread the needle right now, avoid the government shutdown, and in so doing, regain power in November, where we can actually cut the size of government, where we can actually work with hopefully President Trump to rein in this weaponized intel agencies, weaponized justice system.
00:25:43.000Or would you rather he just shut it down right now to hell with the consequences?
00:25:48.000Now, there's a lot of people that say just shut it down right now.
00:25:56.000But I'm telling you from sources in Congress that I speak with, they are all seeing the polling that they will lose the House majority, as slim as it is.
00:26:06.000They will lose it in November if they move forward with a burn-it-all-down approach right now.
00:26:16.000Maybe Republicans, you know, would have a slightly better deal if we hadn't kicked a Republican out of the House and handed his seat to a Democrat.
00:26:23.000Maybe, maybe, maybe we should have thought about that instead of playing the left's virtue signaling game.
00:26:29.000It's a risk-reward calculation that we need to be pragmatic about, in my opinion.
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00:27:33.000All right, so this whole talk about Speaker Johnson, I mean, it's, man, the emails are flooding in.
00:27:39.000It's interesting to be in Charlie's position when the emails start flowing in and we really tap a vein of what people are thinking about.
00:27:46.000I would say it was probably two to one, shut it down.
00:27:49.000There was probably about 30% of the audience, 33% of the audience that wants to give Mike Johnson a little bit of leash.
00:27:56.000But you got to remember: so when this poll comes out, it's basically like 70-30 that Republicans will be blamed and it will affect our House, the ability for us to get a House majority in November.
00:28:09.000Now, Trump's coattails are certainly a thing.
00:28:12.000Biden's low approval rating is going to factor into all of this.
00:29:06.000It is a, you know, that 30%, when I say it's about 70-30%, the people that make up this audience are in that 30%.
00:29:14.000You know that the shutdown is garbage.
00:29:16.000You know that it's not really a shutdown.
00:29:18.000You know that practically speaking, it would be better for the country to stop spending trillions of dollars it doesn't have and shut it down to get concessions on the border.
00:29:26.000Politically and pragmatically speaking, we have to deal with the reality that most Americans do not understand that.
00:29:33.000Most Americans are uneducated about that.
00:29:35.000We do our best on this show to educate everybody.
00:29:37.000Now, if everybody was as smart as you are in this audience, we would shut it down immediately and you'd be hearing me be the loudest voice in the room.
00:30:04.000The question is politically, how do you navigate that in an effective way?
00:30:09.000How do you communicate that in an effective way so you don't get shellacked at the polls and have zero power to do anything that you want and make any progress that you want?
00:30:17.000So, yeah, I mean, it's the political calculus is tricky.
00:30:22.000Speaker Johnson might have the toughest job in the country right now.
00:30:50.000And that's one of the things I'm going to be watching for.
00:30:52.000You know, this whole like state of the union calisthenics where you got to get up and down, you got to get up and down and clap about everything every five seconds.
00:32:31.000I think we did a pretty darn good job, a decent overview of what the dynamics at play are tonight and who's going to be saying what and how and what to look for.
00:32:40.000Or you could just not watch and we'll tell you all about it tomorrow.