00:01:25.000We will not embrace the ideas that have destroyed countries, destroyed lives, and we are going to fight for freedom on campuses across the country.
00:01:52.000Every square inch of this country matters.
00:01:54.000However, Arizona right now is the place where all the thoughts, the prayers, the work, the ambitions of the working class, the MAGA base, the America First Movement is all coming into Arizona.
00:02:04.000We're 39 days away from electing one of the most exciting candidates that I have lived through.
00:02:35.000If you base it on momentum, it's going to be a landslide victory.
00:02:38.000But we know that there are lots of other things that at play here, and we have to work for every single vote.
00:02:44.000We're doing the Ask Me Anything tour because my opponent won't debate.
00:02:48.000So we decided to take the debate, or as I call it, the job interview, out on the road.
00:02:54.000And we're going to every corner of this state and letting the wonderful, great people of Arizona ask me questions as if it's a job interview.
00:03:03.000And, you know, you said that my opponent won't answer questions.
00:03:05.000I think a voter saw her at a Starbucks the other day and went to ask her a question.
00:03:51.000You have a story that honestly is inspiring to so many different people where you came from the most humble beginnings imaginable, a big family, and here you are right on the precipice of becoming a governor of one of the great states, Arizona.
00:04:05.000It is a true embodiment of the American dream.
00:04:08.000Let's watch this video together of Carrie Lake's new campaign video.
00:04:11.000I want you to watch this biography of Carrie and tell me, this is not one of the most exciting stories you've seen in some time.
00:04:17.000And then Carrie will let you riff on it.
00:04:38.000A couple times a winter, we would wake up at like 6 a.m. and we would go out and have to split wood and cut wood in order to heat our home.
00:04:46.000During that time when I lived out in the country, I remember having a really tight, close moment with God.
00:04:53.000I saw a plane flying over and it was really tiny.
00:04:56.000And I thought to myself, someday I'm going to be on a plane doing something.
00:05:00.000And I had this God moment where it was almost like God said to me, you are going to be on a plane.
00:08:32.000Day one, and we declare an invasion on our southern border.
00:08:36.000There will be no mandates and no lockdowns to restore quality of life to Arizona.
00:08:42.000For our students, after 10th grade, they decide if they're going to go to college or learn a trade and be able to get the jobs that are out there.
00:09:43.000And I think you're getting emotional because you have a little girl now, and there's a lot at stake right now, Charlie.
00:09:48.000We have our future at stake, and that's why I'm in this race.
00:09:52.000We decided to put a little short documentary together because even though I've worked here in Arizona for 27 years as a fair journalist, you know, lots been said about me.
00:10:01.000A lot of the attack ads, tens of millions of dollars thrown at me trying to dissuade people from voting for me and trying to distract from who I am.
00:10:11.000And so we decided to let people know who I am, what my vision for Arizona is.
00:10:16.000As dark as things are right now, and they are dark, I really do see our brightest days ahead because so many people are coming into the political fold right now, realizing that we, the people, need to chart our future.
00:10:28.000It's one of the best political advertisements I've seen in some time because they're dealing with a true story.
00:10:36.000How many years have I been telling you about Relief Factor?
00:10:38.000Producer Andrew's right here doing an Iron Man thanks to Relief Factor.
00:10:41.000And truth is, I know there are millions of people.
00:10:43.000In fact, some say over 100 million people struggling with some kind of pain, maybe from exercise or just getting older.
00:10:48.000That can do it, getting older, which is why I'm so impressed with the people at relieffactor.com.
00:10:54.000You rarely see this kind of focus and commitment.
00:10:56.000They recently shared with me that they are doubling down and want to literally double their total number of happy customers in the next year.
00:11:03.000So here's the deal: if you're struggling with back pain, neck pain, shoulder, hip, or knee pain, even general muscle aches and pain, then I'm suggesting you order their three-week quick start, still discounted, only $19.95.
00:11:32.000Carrie, what are the messages that are resonating the most with voters here in the great state of Arizona?
00:11:37.000Well, recently, of course, it's education because we've always been on the cutting edge forefront of education freedom so that our families have options in Arizona.
00:11:47.000And we just recently, our legislature passed ESAs for all, which some people call them vouchers.
00:12:11.000Of course, my opponent, who went to a private school herself, doesn't want other children in Arizona to have access to those private schools if their family chooses.
00:12:24.000She's, of course, in bed with the teachers' unions, who, by the way, don't care about the teachers and they don't care about the students and they hate the families.
00:12:37.000People move here, Charlie, to Arizona, not just for a great climate, but because it's been an affordable place to live and it's becoming less and less affordable.
00:13:08.000The border is a massive issue because the wide open border with the narco-terrorists and cartels in charge is affecting every aspect of our life.
00:13:17.000It's fentanyl pouring across, the crime pouring across, the people pouring across.
00:13:22.000And they're ending up staying in housing that we could frankly use for Arizonans.
00:13:28.000So we are going to get very strong and very serious on that border starting on day one.
00:13:33.000And I know that the people of Arizona want that because I'm out there talking to them every day.
00:13:37.000One of the reasons why I believe you're going to win, first of all, obviously articulate, charismatic, you understand what the people of Arizona want.
00:13:42.000But I'm looking at these Katie Hobbs ads, which she's running thanks to California money, imperialistic California money that wants to take over our beautiful state.
00:13:51.000And she's pretending to be this like tough person on the border.
00:13:54.000And she looks like a total nerd walking around there with, I don't know, the two corrupt state sheriffs that she found.
00:14:00.000But that shows Carrie that the issues that are your strike zone issues, she has to try to pander to.
00:14:05.000And she's like, oh, yeah, I'm tough on the border.
00:14:07.000Katie Hobbs isn't tough on the border.
00:14:27.000They walk along the border fence that President Trump put up, the border wall, and they're all opposed to it, but they use it for a prop in their background.
00:14:36.000And Katie Hobbs voted against the border wall.
00:14:38.000She voted against funding a border wall.
00:14:40.000She voted against funding a virtual border wall.
00:14:43.000She voted against funding our border strike force twice.
00:14:48.000And she even voted against giving us the ability to ask the federal government to help us pay for some of the issues we're dealing with due to the border.
00:14:58.000She is absolutely an open borders globalist.
00:15:01.000And we won't have a state and we won't have a country very long if she gets anywhere near the Arizona governor's office.
00:15:07.000Well, Arizona is right on the precipice.
00:15:09.000Arizona go the way of Colorado or go the way of Florida.
00:15:11.000And it needs leadership so terribly and so importantly.
00:15:16.000So finally, Carrie, crime is up all across the valley, unfortunately.
00:15:46.000They know that we're going to help to make sure that all police forces across Arizona are fully staffed rather than down hundreds of police officers.
00:15:54.000And we're going to have them go out and make our streets safe again.
00:15:57.000We need to have a safe state in order to have a great state.
00:16:00.000This is not tough to figure out, but Katie Hobbs is a radical.
00:16:04.000She would turn this state into something unrecognizable.
00:16:07.000But I really think there's some very exciting future plans for Kerry Lake.
00:17:50.000With iTarget Pro, you get to use your gun.
00:17:53.000You put in the laser bullet and you could fire unlimited and then it tracks your accuracy.
00:17:58.000And for example, maybe your wife just wants to get used to holding the gun, what it might be like if there was an intruder.
00:18:03.000Well, then you could set up a bunch of these eye targets throughout the house, the kitchen, the yard, and she's able to then practice that actual bullets and any sort of ammunition being discharged free of charge.
00:18:14.000And then you get a full report of how accurate she was.
00:18:19.000There's, and if someone's like not comfortable with a gun, if they're uncomfortable with kind of how they are, you know, using it, how a gun feels, it's a great way to ease someone in to firearm use and ownership.
00:19:08.000They have all the latest polling, all the latest trends, and they have this great aggregation of articles on both sides where you can really kind of see where the zeitgeist is leaning.
00:19:16.000With us right now is the man behind Real Clear Politics, Tom Bevin.
00:19:21.000And Tom, please unmute yourself on the Zoom.
00:20:07.000And so, you know, we don't have any polling in a lot of these House races, right?
00:20:12.000So this will give you a sense of which way the electorate is leaning.
00:20:15.000Now, Democrats had been trailing in this in the spring.
00:20:19.000They made a recovery, took a lead in the generic ballot over the summer.
00:20:25.000But just in the last round of polling, so in the last few days, the latest round of polling shows Republicans pulling back into a lead in the generic ballot by about a point.
00:20:53.000So, you know, they tend to underperform, particularly in swing states, swing districts.
00:20:59.000And so the fact that the GOP is now ahead with about 38 days until election day is a sign that I think it's a sign that undecideds who previously weren't sort of tuned into things are making their decision and at least so far are moving toward the Republican Party.
00:21:19.000And that would be, I think, that would be logical given all of the dynamics that have been playing this election for dating back for months, the economy and inflation being the number one issue on the minds of the vast majority of Americans.
00:21:36.000And Republicans have a lead on that issue over Democrats by anywhere from 15 to 20 points, depending on the poll you look at.
00:21:42.000So, Tom, one of the things that I've been saying is that, you know, if you were a Democrat consultant and if you were kind of, let's just play, obviously I'm not, but if you were like a Democrat thought leader, I would be sort of worried because I can't imagine in the next 39 days to the election, there is a compelling new argument Democrats are going to be able to make to win over more voters.
00:22:04.000And what I mean by that is Republicans have a lot of, they have a lot of growth potential.
00:22:09.000Just looking at it objectively, Republican trends have a chance to really maximize where it seems like Democrats have really, in some ways, solidified their base, you know, really captured people that are going to vote on the Dobbs decision.
00:22:22.000They've saturated the airwaves on that for the last 90 days.
00:22:26.000And it seems as if time is not on Democrats' side.
00:23:32.000But when they're doing that, they're not speaking.
00:23:34.000They're not speaking to independent voters and they're coming across as out of touch.
00:23:38.000And so, for that reason, I think the way the issue landscape looks is more aligned with the Republican Party and independents and less so with Democrats and their priorities.
00:23:49.000And for that reason, I think the Democrats may have a ceiling that they're going to run up against.
00:23:54.000So, has there been an election like this in your memory where the priorities of both parties are so disconnected?
00:24:02.000I mean, for example, in the 2008 presidential race, when Barack Obama beat John McCain, I think Obama won as convincingly as he did because everyone agreed the economy is a mess.
00:24:13.000We have Bush fatigue, motivated Democrat base.
00:24:16.000And I bet, I'm just guessing that if you polled an average Democrat, an average Republican in the fall of 2008, economy was the number one issue.
00:24:23.000It was right near the financial crisis and collapse.
00:24:26.000But now you have in 2022, 14 years later, I just use as an example, where you have an average Democrat voter who says, my top two basically priorities are climate change and abortion.
00:24:37.000And Republicans are saying maybe, you know, immigration and inflation, crime.
00:24:42.000Have we seen an election like that recently?
00:24:45.000Not that I can speak to that comes to mind immediately.
00:24:49.000I mean, to your point, there has been a general consensus on what the big issues of the day are in many of these elections.
00:24:57.000Prior to 2008, it was all about the war in Iraq.
00:25:08.000For a long time, it was about during Obama's first term, it was about health care.
00:25:13.000That was the number one issue for a majority of voters, and certainly among Democrats, less so among Republicans.
00:25:21.000But it is to have a situation where it is, you have these sort of overwhelming numbers, 75, 80% of folks saying that the economy is their major concern, inflation, gas prices, and the like.
00:25:33.000And to not have that reflected, at least certainly at the national level, by the by the Democratic Party, which is, and you look at these, all of these races, every single one that I've seen, Democrats are making their ads about the Dobbs decision about abortion.
00:26:16.000And it just didn't work out for them in that way.
00:26:20.000And I think they're hitting those same notes again.
00:26:23.000And again, it's motivating their base.
00:26:25.000And that's an important part of midterm elections.
00:26:28.000But you can't win a midterm without also reaching out and winning over some of those independent, moderate-minded voters, particularly when you're thinking about the landscape.
00:26:37.000It's the suburbs of Atlanta, Georgia, the suburbs of Phoenix, Arizona, the suburbs of Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, the suburbs of Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
00:26:47.000I mean, that's where I think Democrats are really going to find themselves with trouble with voters.
00:26:55.000Certainly there are women in those areas that care about abortion as a primary issue, but there are an awful lot of folks who are less ideological, who care more about the price they're creating for gas and food and all of those things.
00:27:07.000Have you seen a reordering as the economy becomes on shakier ground in the last 30 or 60 days for independence, where abortion might have been the third issue, but now it might be eight?
00:27:17.000Or, I mean, are you seeing it go down in the hierarchy as economic anxiety increases?
00:27:23.000It never went up, really, certainly for independents or Republicans.
00:27:28.000And this has been, again, this has been pretty clear in the data for a long, long time now.
00:27:34.000It's just not something that motivates a lot of voters outside of the base of the Democratic Party.
00:27:40.000And so the economy has been, again, by two or three or four times more than anything else.
00:27:47.000I mean, you get, you have some polls where no other issue makes it to single, it makes it to double digits.
00:27:52.000They're all in single digits, and the economy is at 20, 30, 40%.
00:27:56.000So it's just, it's not even debatable that that is what voters are telling pollsters is the most important issue.
00:28:02.000And again, on those, and here's the problem for the demo: on those issues, Republicans have an advantage.
00:28:08.000And Joe Biden's approval rating, which overall in our real clear politics average is about 42.5% right now.
00:28:18.000So the further you dig into those specific issues, folks don't appreciate, don't like the way Joe Biden's been handling those.
00:28:26.000So some people are concerned that kind of, especially on the right, that going into these next 39 days, that Republican candidates are not really articulating the most persuasive message.
00:28:42.000I'm starting to see that where some Republican candidates are starting to get on message and starting to be able to, you know, really communicate, you know, more effectively to their voters.
00:28:52.000So let's kind of go through some race by races.
00:28:54.000On realcorepolitics.com, you have a shocking poll that you guys, I actually sent it around.
00:28:59.000Not shocking, but it's because we've been covering this race rather closely.
00:29:02.000It's really a fascinating race because there's so many dynamics here.
00:29:07.000It looks like Oz is now within the margin of error.
00:29:09.000I mean, 60 days ago, Oz was left for political death.
00:29:13.000Yeah, I mean, Fetterman had about an eight-point lead coming out of the summer, and that's been chopped in half.
00:29:19.000And as you mentioned, there are polls that have it even closer than that down to, you know, two or three points.
00:29:25.000Fetterman's still leading in all the polls, but it is tightened up rather dramatically.
00:29:31.000And I think that's a function of a couple of things.
00:29:33.000I mean, one, I think Republican voters now who particularly in Pennsylvania is one of the one of the nastiest Republican primary fights of the entire cycle.
00:29:42.000And there are a lot of voters, Republican voters there who really like Mostriano, but don't really like Oz so much, particularly in rural areas.
00:29:52.000They're starting to come home now as they're faced with the actual choice.
00:29:56.000And they're going to have to make a decision.
00:29:58.000And it looks like most of them, you know, they're obviously not going to vote for Fetterman.
00:30:02.000The question is, are they going to go in and vote for Oz?
00:30:04.000Are they just going to leave that question blank?
00:30:06.000And I mean, if there's, you know, Mastriano has a separate issue than Oz.
00:30:11.000They almost have, they both, if they both could trade each other what they have for what they need most and keep what they have, they would both win.
00:30:18.000Where Oz really needs central Pennsylvania-based support badly, and Mostriano needs some suburban support badly.
00:30:24.000And Oz is doing very well in the suburbs, but not as well in the center part of the state of Pennsylvania.
00:30:50.000I mean, you know, people are, as far as the Senate is concerned, you know, people are keeping an eye on the Washington state Senate race, the Colorado race.
00:31:00.000Those are kind of the only ones that might be considered sleeper.
00:31:04.000My sleeper is actually Minnesota governor's race.
00:31:07.000I think given the way that that state has moved over the last couple of cycles, and you've got Tim Walz there, the incumbent Democrat running against Scott Jensen, who's a doctor, Republican.
00:31:22.000That race is one to keep an eye on because you'll see if the electorate, if Republicans turn out on election day, that could very well be an upset.
00:31:39.000So you have a Republican, a Democrat, and then kind of a renegade independent, Betsy Johnson, who's a former Republican who is a very candid individual who I believe is receiving funding from Phil Knight, the founder of Nike.
00:31:54.000And she's polling around 16 or 17% and drawing a lot of Democrats away.
00:31:58.000And the Republican is up in the polls.
00:32:00.000Could a Republican become governor of Oregon?
00:32:03.000Yeah, it actually is looking like a real possibility.
00:32:06.000And that's part of that too, is fatigue from the current administration, you know, two-term incumbent there who was way to the left.
00:32:16.000And really, particularly with COVID and all that.
00:32:19.000So yeah, that's another race to keep an eye on.
00:32:22.000There could be a Republican governor in Oregon of all places after this election.
00:32:27.000Yeah, I think we're going to see some switching.
00:32:29.000I think the general trend is very favorable to Republicans.
00:32:32.000Obviously, I want it to be, and I see that.
00:32:34.000But there's a tight governor's race in Kansas, an incumbent Democrat, a tight governor's race in Oklahoma.
00:32:40.000Governor Stitt is only up a couple points.
00:32:41.000I think you guys posted that poll the other day on Real Clear Politics.
00:32:45.000That part of the world, that kind of middle section, Midwest, kind of Great Plains, Democrats can do well at times in statewide races in particular.
00:32:54.000And then you have the Wisconsin governor's race and many others.
00:32:58.000So just kind of really quick, what House seats do you think are going to determine the majority?
00:33:03.000You don't have to say the numbers because they're so hard to remember, but just kind of what portions?
00:33:06.000I mean, what suburban areas do you think are going to be the ones that flip?
00:33:16.000We've got a couple here that are going to be, you know, even in a state as blue as this one, Democrats are defending some of these suburban races.
00:33:25.000You look in Southern California, California always has a number, and those seats have been sort of flipping back and forth over the last couple of cycles down in the Orange County area.
00:33:37.000I think almost every race in Iowa is competitive.
00:33:40.000And those aren't necessarily suburban because of the way that the state is laid out, but all of the races in Iowa are going to be very, very competitive.
00:33:48.000So the problem for Democrats in the House, though, is that they're just the numbers are too daunting.
00:33:56.000I mean, they would have to improve their situation dramatically from where we are right now in the next 38 days to really have any chance of holding the House.
00:34:04.000I mean, we have 27 toss-up races that are Democrat held.
00:34:08.000We have another dozen races that are already lean.
00:34:11.000They're Democratically held seats that lean Republican and another five seats that are likely Republican.
00:34:16.000Meanwhile, you only have one Republican seat that's leaning Dem and one Republican seat that is likely Dem.
00:34:22.000So the numbers just really don't work.
00:34:25.000Now, if they have a good night, they could keep their losses down to single digits.
00:34:29.000But most likely, we've got it at about a 21 and a half seat pickup right now, which is a little less than the historical average of 28, but still would give them a clear majority in the House of Representatives.
00:34:40.000I mean, there is a theme that the MAGA base can outperform some of these polls because it's a difficult phenomenon to pull.
00:34:46.000Really quick, Tom, which base is more motivated to vote.
00:34:51.000I mean, again, you go back for me, there's been a lot of noise in this election, but you pull back and you look at 30,000-foot view and the fundamentals, and they favor the Republican Party.
00:35:08.000They're facing just an, I mean, you go tick through the list of things and all of these metrics are lined up against them.
00:35:16.000So they're going to have to have a huge turnout just to stave off what would otherwise is going to be a red wave coming in in about 38 days.
00:35:24.000I think that's only going to increase.
00:35:26.000Tom, thank you so much, RioClear Politics.