The Charlie Kirk Show - September 30, 2022


The Red Wave Rebound with Kari Lake and Tom Bevan


Episode Stats


Length

35 minutes

Words per minute

188.91061

Word count

6,763

Sentence count

535

Harmful content

Misogyny

21

sentences flagged

Toxicity

5

sentences flagged

Hate speech

6

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

Candace Owens is running for Governor of Arizona against Kelli Lake in the primary election. Candace and Charlie Kirk are on tour with Turning Point USA, and they are in a town near you. They are doing an Ask Me Anything tour to get out there and ask the people of Arizona what they think about the race.

Transcript

Transcripts from "The Charlie Kirk Show" are sourced from the Knowledge Fight Interactive Search Tool. Explore them interactively here.
Misogyny classifications generated with MilaNLProc/bert-base-uncased-ear-misogyny .
Toxicity classifications generated with s-nlp/roberta_toxicity_classifier .
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
00:00:00.000 Hey everybody, Carrie Lake joins us. 0.99
00:00:02.000 She plays her very emotional advertisement.
00:00:05.000 You guys can support her, CarrieLake.com.
00:00:07.000 And also Tom Bevin from Real Clear Politics talks about national trends that are looking better and better and better for a red wave.
00:00:15.000 A lot of work to do, a lot of ground still to make up.
00:00:17.000 Email us your thoughts as always, freedom at charliekirk.com.
00:00:21.000 Support the Charlie Kirk Show.
00:00:22.000 Open up your podcast app, type in Charlie Kirk Show and hit subscribe in the upper right-hand corner.
00:00:27.000 Get involved with Turning PointUSA today at tpusa.com.
00:00:31.000 That is tpusa.com.
00:00:33.000 Start a high school chapter or a college chapter and join our movement at tpusa.com.
00:00:39.000 That is tpusa.com.
00:00:42.000 If you guys want to get my latest book, The College Scam, for 50% off, go to tpusa.com/slash book.
00:00:50.000 Also, we are going on tour.
00:00:52.000 Candace Owens and myself are going on tour with Turning Point USA.
00:00:55.000 So check it out at tpusa.com/slash tour to see if we are coming to a town near you.
00:01:02.000 Buckle up, everybody.
00:01:03.000 Here we go.
00:01:04.000 Charlie, what you've done is incredible here.
00:01:05.000 Maybe Charlie Kirk is on the college campus.
00:01:08.000 I want you to know we are lucky to have Charlie Kirk.
00:01:11.000 Charlie Kirk's running the White House, folks.
00:01:14.000 I want to thank Charlie.
00:01:15.000 He's an incredible guy.
00:01:16.000 His spirit, his love of this country.
00:01:18.000 He's done an amazing job building one of the most powerful youth organizations ever created.
00:01:23.000 Turning point USA. 0.65
00:01:25.000 We will not embrace the ideas that have destroyed countries, destroyed lives, and we are going to fight for freedom on campuses across the country.
00:01:33.000 That's why we are here.
00:01:36.000 Brought to you by the Loan Experts I Trust, Andrew and Todd at Sierra Pacific Mortgage at andrewandTodd.com.
00:01:45.000 Arizona is the beachhead.
00:01:47.000 Arizona is a chance for us to push back against the globalists.
00:01:51.000 Every state matters.
00:01:52.000 Every square inch of this country matters.
00:01:54.000 However, Arizona right now is the place where all the thoughts, the prayers, the work, the ambitions of the working class, the MAGA base, the America First Movement is all coming into Arizona.
00:02:04.000 We're 39 days away from electing one of the most exciting candidates that I have lived through.
00:02:10.000 And that is Carrie Lake.
00:02:11.000 And she joins us right now.
00:02:12.000 Carrie, how are you doing?
00:02:14.000 I'm doing great.
00:02:15.000 Good morning, Charlie.
00:02:16.000 How are you?
00:02:16.000 I'm excellent.
00:02:17.000 Thank you.
00:02:18.000 So how's your race going?
00:02:19.000 You're running up against someone who refuses to debate you, runs away from questions.
00:02:24.000 The latest polls show you up despite the fact she's outspending you.
00:02:28.000 The media won't cover you accurately, but you're running one of the most successful grassroots campaigns I've ever seen.
00:02:33.000 How do you think it's going?
00:02:34.000 I think it's going great.
00:02:35.000 If you base it on momentum, it's going to be a landslide victory.
00:02:38.000 But we know that there are lots of other things that at play here, and we have to work for every single vote.
00:02:44.000 We're doing the Ask Me Anything tour because my opponent won't debate.
00:02:48.000 So we decided to take the debate, or as I call it, the job interview, out on the road.
00:02:54.000 And we're going to every corner of this state and letting the wonderful, great people of Arizona ask me questions as if it's a job interview.
00:03:03.000 And, you know, you said that my opponent won't answer questions.
00:03:05.000 I think a voter saw her at a Starbucks the other day and went to ask her a question.
00:03:11.000 And she said she won't answer.
00:03:13.000 She said, I'm not answering that.
00:03:15.000 I'm not talking to you.
00:03:16.000 And this is how she feels about the people of Arizona.
00:03:19.000 She's not serious about this job. 0.96
00:03:21.000 She's hiding in the basement and hoping that, you know, all of this dark money will win her this election. 0.99
00:03:27.000 It's gross. 1.00
00:03:27.000 She's contemptible. 1.00
00:03:28.000 The good news is that Arizona is still a red state and that people are coming to your campaign in huge numbers.
00:03:34.000 We're very honored, Carrie, that we get to play your new campaign video here.
00:03:39.000 Air it for its first time ever here on the Charlie Kirk Show Worldwide Reveal.
00:03:43.000 I'll be honest, I woke up very early this morning and I was getting emotional watching this.
00:03:47.000 I didn't know some of these details.
00:03:49.000 You have an Only in America story.
00:03:51.000 You have a story that honestly is inspiring to so many different people where you came from the most humble beginnings imaginable, a big family, and here you are right on the precipice of becoming a governor of one of the great states, Arizona.
00:04:05.000 It is a true embodiment of the American dream.
00:04:08.000 Let's watch this video together of Carrie Lake's new campaign video.
00:04:11.000 I want you to watch this biography of Carrie and tell me, this is not one of the most exciting stories you've seen in some time.
00:04:17.000 And then Carrie will let you riff on it.
00:04:19.000 Let's play the video.
00:04:21.000 I think there's always that Midwestern work ethic that you've heard about.
00:04:25.000 Because I grew up in a family of nine, it was honed even more because we had to work.
00:04:30.000 We were poor.
00:04:31.000 My family was very poor.
00:04:33.000 We didn't have food in the house.
00:04:34.000 I lived off of a gravel road.
00:04:36.000 We didn't even have a house number.
00:04:38.000 A couple times a winter, we would wake up at like 6 a.m. and we would go out and have to split wood and cut wood in order to heat our home.
00:04:46.000 During that time when I lived out in the country, I remember having a really tight, close moment with God.
00:04:53.000 I saw a plane flying over and it was really tiny.
00:04:56.000 And I thought to myself, someday I'm going to be on a plane doing something.
00:05:00.000 And I had this God moment where it was almost like God said to me, you are going to be on a plane.
00:05:06.000 You're going to go places.
00:05:08.000 You're going to do something big.
00:05:09.000 You and I have a rendezvous with Devil.
00:05:11.000 Ronald Reagan was my hero, and he is the reason that I registered the day I turned 18 as a Republican.
00:05:19.000 I look at that college degree at the University of Iowa.
00:05:23.000 It wasn't an Ivy League school, but I worked hard for every single course I took and worked my way through college.
00:05:29.000 Working as a janitor in a drug treatment center where people are coming straight from prison to go through drug treatment.
00:05:35.000 I learned how to use the big floor waxer.
00:05:38.000 I mean, I can run a janitorial crew very well.
00:05:41.000 I started my career at the same station that Ronald Reagan was at.
00:05:45.000 I got my first on-air job and I was there for about a year and a half and I got a call from Phoenix.
00:05:50.000 And let's go to Kerry Lake.
00:05:52.000 I am taking you along here in Arizona.
00:05:56.000 And I just fell in love with Arizona.
00:05:59.000 And the people fell in love with me too.
00:06:01.000 Kerry Lake, known in Arizona as a charismatic newscaster.
00:06:04.000 He's a lion.
00:06:05.000 Hear him roar.
00:06:06.000 A staple on Phoenix TVs for more than two decades.
00:06:09.000 This was back when people did tune in.
00:06:11.000 They tuned into the news at five.
00:06:13.000 It was based on trust and friendship.
00:06:15.000 I felt so blessed having a 27-year career covering this beautiful state and the great people of Arizona.
00:06:21.000 And I treasured my career and that job.
00:06:25.000 It meant the world to me for all of those years.
00:06:28.000 But like so many Arizonans and frankly, so many Americans, I woke up to a lot of reality during COVID.
00:06:36.000 I realized that there was an agenda being pushed by the media.
00:06:40.000 This is extremely dangerous to our democracy.
00:06:43.000 And I didn't want to be part of that agenda.
00:06:45.000 I know this job has gone from being a job I love to feeling like it was unethical and biased to being completely immoral.
00:06:53.000 The hang-up for me was walking away from a big salary.
00:06:56.000 I remember sitting at my desk in my office and I just was praying to God about it and I took the Bible and I just opened it up.
00:07:05.000 1 Timothy chapter 6, verse 7.
00:07:08.000 You bring nothing into this world and you take nothing out of this world.
00:07:12.000 And I remember getting the message loud and clear.
00:07:16.000 Okay, message received, God, I got it.
00:07:18.000 You want me to go?
00:07:19.000 And right then and there, I decided I'm leaving my career.
00:07:22.000 I don't like the direction it's going.
00:07:24.000 And I wake up the next morning and my phone was practically hot to the touch.
00:07:29.000 Many people said, you've given me the courage.
00:07:32.000 You've given me the strength to show that kind of courage.
00:07:35.000 All of those thousands, literally tens of thousands of messages.
00:07:38.000 One common thread that I kept getting from the people of Arizona was, would you please consider running for office?
00:07:46.000 Okay.
00:07:47.000 The next governor of Arizona, Harry.
00:07:51.000 We are a red state.
00:07:54.000 We are a wild west state.
00:07:56.000 And we demand common sense, not communism.
00:07:59.000 It can go right back across to California.
00:08:01.000 We don't want it.
00:08:02.000 It's funny.
00:08:03.000 I think that job, janitor, might be the job that prepares me most for politics.
00:08:08.000 You want to keep pushing propaganda?
00:08:09.000 Your days are numbered.
00:08:10.000 Because the people don't like what you guys have had to live.
00:08:12.000 I'm not afraid of the fake news.
00:08:13.000 I'm not afraid of the globalists.
00:08:15.000 It is no longer the party of warmongers.
00:08:17.000 Wake up, Joe. 1.00
00:08:18.000 We will rip them to shreds before they get their hands on our kids. 0.96
00:08:23.000 We're going to lift everybody up.
00:08:24.000 We will never stop fighting for the unborn.
00:08:27.000 Carrie Lake is strong.
00:08:28.000 I'm not afraid of the cartels.
00:08:30.000 Arizona, we got to save ourselves.
00:08:32.000 Day one, and we declare an invasion on our southern border.
00:08:36.000 There will be no mandates and no lockdowns to restore quality of life to Arizona.
00:08:42.000 For our students, after 10th grade, they decide if they're going to go to college or learn a trade and be able to get the jobs that are out there.
00:08:51.000 I will be working for you.
00:08:53.000 You will be the boss.
00:08:55.000 Arizona, I love every one of you.
00:09:00.000 God bless state 48.
00:09:13.000 Maybe God is tapping me on the shoulder saying, This is what I freed you up for.
00:09:17.000 This is what I freed you up for.
00:09:21.000 We can't wait to see what you do when you grow up.
00:09:24.000 How do you die to be just like you?
00:09:37.000 Now, that makes me emotional, I'll tell you, Carrie.
00:09:41.000 Thank you for playing that.
00:09:43.000 And I think you're getting emotional because you have a little girl now, and there's a lot at stake right now, Charlie.
00:09:48.000 We have our future at stake, and that's why I'm in this race.
00:09:52.000 We decided to put a little short documentary together because even though I've worked here in Arizona for 27 years as a fair journalist, you know, lots been said about me.
00:10:01.000 A lot of the attack ads, tens of millions of dollars thrown at me trying to dissuade people from voting for me and trying to distract from who I am.
00:10:11.000 And so we decided to let people know who I am, what my vision for Arizona is.
00:10:16.000 As dark as things are right now, and they are dark, I really do see our brightest days ahead because so many people are coming into the political fold right now, realizing that we, the people, need to chart our future.
00:10:28.000 It's one of the best political advertisements I've seen in some time because they're dealing with a true story.
00:10:36.000 How many years have I been telling you about Relief Factor?
00:10:38.000 Producer Andrew's right here doing an Iron Man thanks to Relief Factor.
00:10:41.000 And truth is, I know there are millions of people.
00:10:43.000 In fact, some say over 100 million people struggling with some kind of pain, maybe from exercise or just getting older.
00:10:48.000 That can do it, getting older, which is why I'm so impressed with the people at relieffactor.com.
00:10:53.000 They are on a mission.
00:10:54.000 You rarely see this kind of focus and commitment.
00:10:56.000 They recently shared with me that they are doubling down and want to literally double their total number of happy customers in the next year.
00:11:02.000 And I believe they'll do it.
00:11:03.000 So here's the deal: if you're struggling with back pain, neck pain, shoulder, hip, or knee pain, even general muscle aches and pain, then I'm suggesting you order their three-week quick start, still discounted, only $19.95.
00:11:13.000 Go to relieffactor.com.
00:11:15.000 That's relieffactor.com.
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00:11:18.000 You should order the three-week quick start too.
00:11:20.000 Discount only $19.95 to see if it will work for you.
00:11:23.000 I think it possibly could.
00:11:24.000 Give your body what it needs to heal itself.
00:11:26.000 Go to relieffactor.com.
00:11:27.000 That's relieffactor.com.
00:11:29.000 Check it out right now.
00:11:32.000 Carrie, what are the messages that are resonating the most with voters here in the great state of Arizona?
00:11:37.000 Well, recently, of course, it's education because we've always been on the cutting edge forefront of education freedom so that our families have options in Arizona.
00:11:47.000 And we just recently, our legislature passed ESAs for all, which some people call them vouchers.
00:11:52.000 They're not officially called that.
00:11:54.000 And basically, it means in Arizona, the funding follows the student.
00:11:57.000 It doesn't get earmarked for one specific school.
00:12:00.000 You decide where you want to send your kiddos and you send them off there.
00:12:03.000 And of course, the left is attacking it.
00:12:06.000 They don't want that.
00:12:07.000 They don't want that education freedom for families.
00:12:10.000 And so that's a big story.
00:12:11.000 Of course, my opponent, who went to a private school herself, doesn't want other children in Arizona to have access to those private schools if their family chooses.
00:12:21.000 That's the best fit for them. 0.71
00:12:23.000 And so she tried to block it.
00:12:24.000 She's, of course, in bed with the teachers' unions, who, by the way, don't care about the teachers and they don't care about the students and they hate the families.
00:12:32.000 So that's a big story.
00:12:33.000 And the economy.
00:12:35.000 We are seeing people struggle.
00:12:37.000 People move here, Charlie, to Arizona, not just for a great climate, but because it's been an affordable place to live and it's becoming less and less affordable.
00:12:45.000 That hurts our retirees.
00:12:47.000 We have a large retiree population.
00:12:50.000 You know, a dollar when Joe Biden took office is now only worth 87 cents, I think, and it's going down quickly.
00:12:58.000 People are so poor.
00:12:59.000 It's very sad.
00:13:00.000 Getting poorer.
00:13:01.000 And I don't know many people getting huge raises to make that make up that gap.
00:13:06.000 It's not happening right now.
00:13:07.000 So those are big issues.
00:13:08.000 The border is a massive issue because the wide open border with the narco-terrorists and cartels in charge is affecting every aspect of our life. 0.99
00:13:17.000 It's fentanyl pouring across, the crime pouring across, the people pouring across.
00:13:22.000 And they're ending up staying in housing that we could frankly use for Arizonans. 0.87
00:13:28.000 So we are going to get very strong and very serious on that border starting on day one.
00:13:33.000 And I know that the people of Arizona want that because I'm out there talking to them every day.
00:13:37.000 One of the reasons why I believe you're going to win, first of all, obviously articulate, charismatic, you understand what the people of Arizona want.
00:13:42.000 But I'm looking at these Katie Hobbs ads, which she's running thanks to California money, imperialistic California money that wants to take over our beautiful state.
00:13:51.000 And she's pretending to be this like tough person on the border. 1.00
00:13:54.000 And she looks like a total nerd walking around there with, I don't know, the two corrupt state sheriffs that she found. 0.98
00:14:00.000 But that shows Carrie that the issues that are your strike zone issues, she has to try to pander to.
00:14:05.000 And she's like, oh, yeah, I'm tough on the border.
00:14:07.000 Katie Hobbs isn't tough on the border.
00:14:08.000 Okay. 1.00
00:14:09.000 She's not. 0.95
00:14:10.000 She's the opposite of tough. 1.00
00:14:11.000 Well, you know, she parades out the two leftist sheriffs that we have in Arizona who turn a blind eye to all the problems.
00:14:20.000 And I feel sorry for the people in their counties because they're not really protecting them.
00:14:25.000 And she parades them out.
00:14:27.000 They walk along the border fence that President Trump put up, the border wall, and they're all opposed to it, but they use it for a prop in their background.
00:14:36.000 And Katie Hobbs voted against the border wall.
00:14:38.000 She voted against funding a border wall.
00:14:40.000 She voted against funding a virtual border wall.
00:14:43.000 She voted against funding our border strike force twice.
00:14:48.000 And she even voted against giving us the ability to ask the federal government to help us pay for some of the issues we're dealing with due to the border.
00:14:58.000 She is absolutely an open borders globalist.
00:15:01.000 And we won't have a state and we won't have a country very long if she gets anywhere near the Arizona governor's office.
00:15:07.000 Well, Arizona is right on the precipice. 0.67
00:15:09.000 Arizona go the way of Colorado or go the way of Florida.
00:15:11.000 And it needs leadership so terribly and so importantly.
00:15:16.000 So finally, Carrie, crime is up all across the valley, unfortunately.
00:15:19.000 Crime is huge.
00:15:20.000 Yeah.
00:15:21.000 Well, and this stems from some stems from the border as well.
00:15:24.000 We've had a million people come in that are gotaways.
00:15:27.000 Those are the most hardened criminals who don't want to be caught.
00:15:30.000 They don't want to be processed for asylum.
00:15:32.000 They're just people who have such a bad record that they're sneaking in.
00:15:36.000 A million out of the five million are gotaways, and we're seeing crime surge everywhere.
00:15:41.000 This is why I back the blue 100%.
00:15:44.000 The police are supporting us.
00:15:46.000 They know that we're going to help to make sure that all police forces across Arizona are fully staffed rather than down hundreds of police officers.
00:15:54.000 And we're going to have them go out and make our streets safe again.
00:15:57.000 We need to have a safe state in order to have a great state. 1.00
00:16:00.000 This is not tough to figure out, but Katie Hobbs is a radical. 1.00
00:16:04.000 She would turn this state into something unrecognizable. 0.88
00:16:07.000 But I really think there's some very exciting future plans for Kerry Lake. 0.79
00:16:13.000 Governor is just one of those steps.
00:16:15.000 I think it could be very, very great.
00:16:16.000 But we got to get Kerry Lake to be governor of Arizona.
00:16:19.000 And it's very important.
00:16:20.000 CarrieLake.com.
00:16:22.000 Thank you.
00:16:23.000 We are competing with Texas and Florida right now.
00:16:26.000 We want to bring good businesses in. 0.97
00:16:27.000 I can't even imagine if Katie Hobbs won't debate me how she will handle going up against DeSantis and Abbott. 0.91
00:16:33.000 Yeah, right. 0.99
00:16:34.000 Katie Hobbs must be defeated. 1.00
00:16:35.000 We are going to beat her. 1.00
00:16:36.000 Carrie Lake, I think, is going to carry a lot of people on the ticket.
00:16:42.000 Look, you know how passionate I am about the Constitution and especially the Second Amendment.
00:16:47.000 I'm just as passionate about being responsible for protecting my family.
00:16:51.000 I just discovered the perfect way to train with your firearm.
00:16:53.000 It's so cool.
00:16:54.000 I got a whole tutorial on this.
00:16:55.000 It's awesome.
00:16:56.000 And you could do it in the comfort of your home and have a lot of fun while doing it.
00:16:59.000 It's called iTarget Pro.
00:17:02.000 And this system is a game changer for me and my family.
00:17:05.000 So what you do is you download the app and you literally load the laser bullet into the firearm and you start training.
00:17:10.000 So you have a gun, a real gun.
00:17:12.000 So it's the feel, it's the weight, it's the texture, it's the grip.
00:17:15.000 And you put this laser bullet in, and then you're able to do firearm training, but no bullet is actually fired.
00:17:22.000 So you're, and then it goes back onto the app of your accuracy, your speed, and your ability to operate the firearm.
00:17:29.000 And so the system develops muscle memory, reaction speed, sight alignment, trigger control, and more.
00:17:34.000 So right now, save 10% plus get free shipping with the offer code Kirk.
00:17:38.000 When you go to itargetpro.com, that is itargetpro.com.
00:17:42.000 Now, why should you use this?
00:17:44.000 Well, look, ammo is super expensive.
00:17:45.000 Somebody like, Charlie, I have to go all the way to the range and practice and all this.
00:17:49.000 Not with iTarget Pro.
00:17:50.000 With iTarget Pro, you get to use your gun.
00:17:53.000 You put in the laser bullet and you could fire unlimited and then it tracks your accuracy.
00:17:58.000 And for example, maybe your wife just wants to get used to holding the gun, what it might be like if there was an intruder.
00:18:03.000 Well, then you could set up a bunch of these eye targets throughout the house, the kitchen, the yard, and she's able to then practice that actual bullets and any sort of ammunition being discharged free of charge.
00:18:14.000 And then you get a full report of how accurate she was.
00:18:17.000 And by the way, no sound, right?
00:18:19.000 There's, and if someone's like not comfortable with a gun, if they're uncomfortable with kind of how they are, you know, using it, how a gun feels, it's a great way to ease someone in to firearm use and ownership.
00:18:31.000 Crime is going up.
00:18:32.000 iTarget Pro can make you comfortable owning and using a firearm.
00:18:37.000 It's much better than dry firing.
00:18:38.000 It's very, very safe.
00:18:39.000 Let's go to itargetpro.com.
00:18:42.000 That is itargetpro.com.
00:18:44.000 A cost-effective way to get your family and yourself proficient to use a firearm.
00:18:49.000 God forbid you have to use it, but we see what's happening.
00:18:51.000 iTargetPro.com, itargetpro.com, offer code Kirk.
00:18:57.000 One of my favorite websites during election season, I must go to it five times a day, is realclearpolitics.com.
00:19:05.000 It's fair.
00:19:06.000 It's transparent.
00:19:08.000 They have all the latest polling, all the latest trends, and they have this great aggregation of articles on both sides where you can really kind of see where the zeitgeist is leaning.
00:19:16.000 With us right now is the man behind Real Clear Politics, Tom Bevin.
00:19:21.000 And Tom, please unmute yourself on the Zoom.
00:19:24.000 That's what my team is telling us.
00:19:25.000 And once you do that, we'll hear you.
00:19:27.000 Tom, how are you doing?
00:19:28.000 I'm great.
00:19:28.000 Great to be with you, Charlie.
00:19:30.000 I understand you recovered from COVID.
00:19:31.000 I hope you're doing okay.
00:19:32.000 So I'm okay.
00:19:33.000 Good.
00:19:34.000 Back.
00:19:34.000 Praise God.
00:19:36.000 So, Tom, you and I have spent some time together hunting pheasants.
00:19:38.000 That was a little while ago before the world totally fell apart.
00:19:41.000 What are you seeing in some of the polling that you're aggregating on your great website, realclearpolitics.com?
00:19:47.000 Well, I think the probably the most interesting and relevant thing is the generic congressional ballot, right?
00:19:53.000 That is how we get a sense of where the public is in terms of their feeling towards both parties.
00:20:00.000 And it's the question that pollsters ask: you know, if the election were held today, would you vote for the Democrat or the Republican?
00:20:06.000 And no names attached.
00:20:07.000 And so, you know, we don't have any polling in a lot of these House races, right?
00:20:12.000 So this will give you a sense of which way the electorate is leaning.
00:20:15.000 Now, Democrats had been trailing in this in the spring.
00:20:19.000 They made a recovery, took a lead in the generic ballot over the summer.
00:20:25.000 But just in the last round of polling, so in the last few days, the latest round of polling shows Republicans pulling back into a lead in the generic ballot by about a point.
00:20:35.000 Now, why is that important?
00:20:36.000 Democrats traditionally sort of underperform the generic ballot.
00:20:42.000 They need to have a lead in the generic ballot.
00:20:44.000 And the reason for that is because demographically, all across the country, they're clustered in urban areas.
00:20:49.000 They're not well dispersed as a party.
00:20:51.000 And so these are all national polls.
00:20:53.000 So, you know, they tend to underperform, particularly in swing states, swing districts.
00:20:59.000 And so the fact that the GOP is now ahead with about 38 days until election day is a sign that I think it's a sign that undecideds who previously weren't sort of tuned into things are making their decision and at least so far are moving toward the Republican Party.
00:21:19.000 And that would be, I think, that would be logical given all of the dynamics that have been playing this election for dating back for months, the economy and inflation being the number one issue on the minds of the vast majority of Americans.
00:21:36.000 And Republicans have a lead on that issue over Democrats by anywhere from 15 to 20 points, depending on the poll you look at.
00:21:42.000 So, Tom, one of the things that I've been saying is that, you know, if you were a Democrat consultant and if you were kind of, let's just play, obviously I'm not, but if you were like a Democrat thought leader, I would be sort of worried because I can't imagine in the next 39 days to the election, there is a compelling new argument Democrats are going to be able to make to win over more voters.
00:22:04.000 And what I mean by that is Republicans have a lot of, they have a lot of growth potential.
00:22:08.000 Would you agree with that?
00:22:09.000 Just looking at it objectively, Republican trends have a chance to really maximize where it seems like Democrats have really, in some ways, solidified their base, you know, really captured people that are going to vote on the Dobbs decision.
00:22:22.000 They've saturated the airwaves on that for the last 90 days.
00:22:26.000 And it seems as if time is not on Democrats' side.
00:22:29.000 Would you agree with that?
00:22:30.000 I would.
00:22:31.000 And I'll put it a different way.
00:22:33.000 You know, on all of these polls, you look at pollsters ask, what's the number one issue on the minds of voters?
00:22:39.000 And for Republicans, it's an order of magnitude.
00:22:42.000 It is the economy, it is inflation, it is immigration, it is crime. 1.00
00:22:46.000 It is also for independents.
00:22:48.000 The economy is number one.
00:22:50.000 Immigration is also up there.
00:22:51.000 Crime is also up there, but it's not for Democrats.
00:22:54.000 And this is the problem.
00:22:54.000 For Democrats, abortion is the number one issue.
00:22:58.000 And in a couple of polls, the economy and inflation falls even below January 6th committee hearings or gun control.
00:23:06.000 And so we have this, what I call a partisan priority gap.
00:23:09.000 And parties have different priorities.
00:23:11.000 That's not unusual, but it is striking to see it this dramatic and this close to an election.
00:23:19.000 Usually, you know, the parties will find their way to speaking about the issues that matter most, not just to their voters.
00:23:26.000 And obviously, Democrats are stuck.
00:23:29.000 Their voters are concerned about certain things.
00:23:30.000 They're speaking to those things.
00:23:32.000 But when they're doing that, they're not speaking.
00:23:34.000 They're not speaking to independent voters and they're coming across as out of touch.
00:23:38.000 And so, for that reason, I think the way the issue landscape looks is more aligned with the Republican Party and independents and less so with Democrats and their priorities.
00:23:49.000 And for that reason, I think the Democrats may have a ceiling that they're going to run up against.
00:23:54.000 So, has there been an election like this in your memory where the priorities of both parties are so disconnected?
00:24:02.000 I mean, for example, in the 2008 presidential race, when Barack Obama beat John McCain, I think Obama won as convincingly as he did because everyone agreed the economy is a mess.
00:24:13.000 We have Bush fatigue, motivated Democrat base. 0.55
00:24:16.000 And I bet, I'm just guessing that if you polled an average Democrat, an average Republican in the fall of 2008, economy was the number one issue.
00:24:23.000 It was right near the financial crisis and collapse.
00:24:26.000 But now you have in 2022, 14 years later, I just use as an example, where you have an average Democrat voter who says, my top two basically priorities are climate change and abortion.
00:24:37.000 And Republicans are saying maybe, you know, immigration and inflation, crime.
00:24:42.000 Have we seen an election like that recently?
00:24:45.000 Not that I can speak to that comes to mind immediately.
00:24:49.000 I mean, to your point, there has been a general consensus on what the big issues of the day are in many of these elections.
00:24:57.000 Prior to 2008, it was all about the war in Iraq.
00:25:00.000 I mean, that was it.
00:25:01.000 And then it flipped almost on a dime, as you mentioned, with the Great Recession heading into that election.
00:25:06.000 It became all about the economy.
00:25:08.000 For a long time, it was about during Obama's first term, it was about health care.
00:25:13.000 That was the number one issue for a majority of voters, and certainly among Democrats, less so among Republicans.
00:25:21.000 But it is to have a situation where it is, you have these sort of overwhelming numbers, 75, 80% of folks saying that the economy is their major concern, inflation, gas prices, and the like.
00:25:33.000 And to not have that reflected, at least certainly at the national level, by the by the Democratic Party, which is, and you look at these, all of these races, every single one that I've seen, Democrats are making their ads about the Dobbs decision about abortion.
00:25:49.000 And they're trying to say, yes.
00:25:51.000 It is.
00:25:51.000 And, you know, they tried to do that a couple of cycles ago.
00:25:55.000 I tweeted about this a couple of weeks ago.
00:25:57.000 You remember Senator Mark Uteris from Colorado, right?
00:26:00.000 Mark Udall was running against Cole.
00:26:02.000 That was the year, right?
00:26:03.000 Yeah.
00:26:04.000 Exactly.
00:26:05.000 And that was the year of the woman. 0.98
00:26:06.000 If you remember that, Democrats had branded this the year of the woman, and that was all they were going to talk about.
00:26:11.000 That was in 2012 or was that in 14?
00:26:13.000 I can't remember.
00:26:13.000 I think that was in 14.
00:26:14.000 Yeah, that would be awesome.
00:26:16.000 And it just didn't work out for them in that way.
00:26:20.000 And I think they're hitting those same notes again.
00:26:23.000 And again, it's motivating their base.
00:26:25.000 And that's an important part of midterm elections.
00:26:28.000 But you can't win a midterm without also reaching out and winning over some of those independent, moderate-minded voters, particularly when you're thinking about the landscape.
00:26:37.000 It's the suburbs of Atlanta, Georgia, the suburbs of Phoenix, Arizona, the suburbs of Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, the suburbs of Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
00:26:47.000 I mean, that's where I think Democrats are really going to find themselves with trouble with voters.
00:26:55.000 Certainly there are women in those areas that care about abortion as a primary issue, but there are an awful lot of folks who are less ideological, who care more about the price they're creating for gas and food and all of those things.
00:27:07.000 Have you seen a reordering as the economy becomes on shakier ground in the last 30 or 60 days for independence, where abortion might have been the third issue, but now it might be eight?
00:27:17.000 Or, I mean, are you seeing it go down in the hierarchy as economic anxiety increases?
00:27:23.000 It never went up, really, certainly for independents or Republicans.
00:27:28.000 And this has been, again, this has been pretty clear in the data for a long, long time now.
00:27:34.000 It's just not something that motivates a lot of voters outside of the base of the Democratic Party.
00:27:40.000 And so the economy has been, again, by two or three or four times more than anything else.
00:27:47.000 I mean, you get, you have some polls where no other issue makes it to single, it makes it to double digits.
00:27:52.000 They're all in single digits, and the economy is at 20, 30, 40%.
00:27:56.000 So it's just, it's not even debatable that that is what voters are telling pollsters is the most important issue.
00:28:02.000 And again, on those, and here's the problem for the demo: on those issues, Republicans have an advantage.
00:28:08.000 And Joe Biden's approval rating, which overall in our real clear politics average is about 42.5% right now.
00:28:14.000 On the economy, it's 38%.
00:28:15.000 On inflation in particular, it's 33%.
00:28:18.000 So the further you dig into those specific issues, folks don't appreciate, don't like the way Joe Biden's been handling those.
00:28:26.000 So some people are concerned that kind of, especially on the right, that going into these next 39 days, that Republican candidates are not really articulating the most persuasive message.
00:28:40.000 I think that's starting to change.
00:28:42.000 I'm starting to see that where some Republican candidates are starting to get on message and starting to be able to, you know, really communicate, you know, more effectively to their voters.
00:28:52.000 So let's kind of go through some race by races.
00:28:54.000 On realcorepolitics.com, you have a shocking poll that you guys, I actually sent it around.
00:28:59.000 Not shocking, but it's because we've been covering this race rather closely.
00:29:02.000 It's really a fascinating race because there's so many dynamics here.
00:29:05.000 Is the Fetterman-Oz race?
00:29:07.000 It looks like Oz is now within the margin of error.
00:29:09.000 I mean, 60 days ago, Oz was left for political death.
00:29:13.000 Yeah, I mean, Fetterman had about an eight-point lead coming out of the summer, and that's been chopped in half.
00:29:19.000 And as you mentioned, there are polls that have it even closer than that down to, you know, two or three points.
00:29:25.000 Fetterman's still leading in all the polls, but it is tightened up rather dramatically.
00:29:31.000 And I think that's a function of a couple of things.
00:29:33.000 I mean, one, I think Republican voters now who particularly in Pennsylvania is one of the one of the nastiest Republican primary fights of the entire cycle.
00:29:42.000 And there are a lot of voters, Republican voters there who really like Mostriano, but don't really like Oz so much, particularly in rural areas.
00:29:52.000 They're starting to come home now as they're faced with the actual choice.
00:29:56.000 And they're going to have to make a decision.
00:29:58.000 And it looks like most of them, you know, they're obviously not going to vote for Fetterman.
00:30:02.000 The question is, are they going to go in and vote for Oz?
00:30:04.000 Are they just going to leave that question blank?
00:30:06.000 Yeah.
00:30:06.000 And I mean, if there's, you know, Mastriano has a separate issue than Oz.
00:30:11.000 They almost have, they both, if they both could trade each other what they have for what they need most and keep what they have, they would both win.
00:30:18.000 Where Oz really needs central Pennsylvania-based support badly, and Mostriano needs some suburban support badly.
00:30:24.000 And Oz is doing very well in the suburbs, but not as well in the center part of the state of Pennsylvania.
00:30:31.000 Something to think about.
00:30:35.000 So, Tom, you know, you look at these polls and these trends.
00:30:38.000 You know, if you were to kind of predict something, what would you say are some sleeper races that are interesting?
00:30:43.000 Let's just say intriguing races that aren't getting enough coverage that you're keeping an eye on?
00:30:49.000 That's a great question.
00:30:50.000 I mean, you know, people are, as far as the Senate is concerned, you know, people are keeping an eye on the Washington state Senate race, the Colorado race.
00:31:00.000 Those are kind of the only ones that might be considered sleeper.
00:31:04.000 My sleeper is actually Minnesota governor's race.
00:31:07.000 I think given the way that that state has moved over the last couple of cycles, and you've got Tim Walz there, the incumbent Democrat running against Scott Jensen, who's a doctor, Republican.
00:31:22.000 That race is one to keep an eye on because you'll see if the electorate, if Republicans turn out on election day, that could very well be an upset.
00:31:31.000 So keep an eye on that one.
00:31:32.000 Yeah, one of the ones that I'm looking at that I'm intrigued with is the Oregon governor's race.
00:31:38.000 And the dynamic is interesting.
00:31:39.000 So you have a Republican, a Democrat, and then kind of a renegade independent, Betsy Johnson, who's a former Republican who is a very candid individual who I believe is receiving funding from Phil Knight, the founder of Nike.
00:31:54.000 And she's polling around 16 or 17% and drawing a lot of Democrats away.
00:31:58.000 And the Republican is up in the polls.
00:32:00.000 Could a Republican become governor of Oregon?
00:32:03.000 Yeah, it actually is looking like a real possibility.
00:32:06.000 And that's part of that too, is fatigue from the current administration, you know, two-term incumbent there who was way to the left.
00:32:16.000 And really, particularly with COVID and all that.
00:32:19.000 So yeah, that's another race to keep an eye on.
00:32:22.000 There could be a Republican governor in Oregon of all places after this election.
00:32:27.000 Yeah, I think we're going to see some switching.
00:32:29.000 I think the general trend is very favorable to Republicans.
00:32:32.000 Obviously, I want it to be, and I see that.
00:32:34.000 But there's a tight governor's race in Kansas, an incumbent Democrat, a tight governor's race in Oklahoma.
00:32:40.000 Governor Stitt is only up a couple points.
00:32:41.000 I think you guys posted that poll the other day on Real Clear Politics.
00:32:45.000 That part of the world, that kind of middle section, Midwest, kind of Great Plains, Democrats can do well at times in statewide races in particular.
00:32:54.000 And then you have the Wisconsin governor's race and many others.
00:32:58.000 So just kind of really quick, what House seats do you think are going to determine the majority?
00:33:03.000 You don't have to say the numbers because they're so hard to remember, but just kind of what portions?
00:33:06.000 I mean, what suburban areas do you think are going to be the ones that flip?
00:33:11.000 Well, that's a good question.
00:33:12.000 I mean, there are a number of suburban races all around the country.
00:33:15.000 I'm based in Illinois.
00:33:16.000 We've got a couple here that are going to be, you know, even in a state as blue as this one, Democrats are defending some of these suburban races.
00:33:25.000 You look in Southern California, California always has a number, and those seats have been sort of flipping back and forth over the last couple of cycles down in the Orange County area.
00:33:35.000 You'll see a couple races.
00:33:37.000 I think almost every race in Iowa is competitive.
00:33:40.000 And those aren't necessarily suburban because of the way that the state is laid out, but all of the races in Iowa are going to be very, very competitive.
00:33:48.000 So the problem for Democrats in the House, though, is that they're just the numbers are too daunting.
00:33:56.000 I mean, they would have to improve their situation dramatically from where we are right now in the next 38 days to really have any chance of holding the House.
00:34:04.000 I mean, we have 27 toss-up races that are Democrat held.
00:34:08.000 We have another dozen races that are already lean.
00:34:11.000 They're Democratically held seats that lean Republican and another five seats that are likely Republican.
00:34:16.000 Meanwhile, you only have one Republican seat that's leaning Dem and one Republican seat that is likely Dem.
00:34:22.000 So the numbers just really don't work.
00:34:25.000 Now, if they have a good night, they could keep their losses down to single digits.
00:34:29.000 But most likely, we've got it at about a 21 and a half seat pickup right now, which is a little less than the historical average of 28, but still would give them a clear majority in the House of Representatives.
00:34:40.000 I mean, there is a theme that the MAGA base can outperform some of these polls because it's a difficult phenomenon to pull.
00:34:46.000 Really quick, Tom, which base is more motivated to vote.
00:34:50.000 Oh, I think you got to give it.
00:34:51.000 I mean, again, you go back for me, there's been a lot of noise in this election, but you pull back and you look at 30,000-foot view and the fundamentals, and they favor the Republican Party.
00:34:59.000 I mean, they're the out party.
00:35:01.000 Biden has been, I mean, Democrats are facing historic inflation.
00:35:06.000 They're facing huge gas prices.
00:35:08.000 They're facing just an, I mean, you go tick through the list of things and all of these metrics are lined up against them.
00:35:16.000 So they're going to have to have a huge turnout just to stave off what would otherwise is going to be a red wave coming in in about 38 days.
00:35:24.000 I think that's only going to increase.
00:35:26.000 Tom, thank you so much, RioClear Politics.
00:35:28.000 I have it open right now.
00:35:29.000 Great work.
00:35:30.000 Thank you soon.
00:35:30.000 Thanks, Charlie.
00:35:30.000 Appreciate it.
00:35:34.000 Thanks so much for listening, everybody.
00:35:35.000 Email me your thoughts as alwaysfreedom at CharlieKirk.com.
00:35:38.000 Thanks so much for listening.
00:35:40.000 God bless.
00:35:44.000 For more on many of these stories and news you can trust, go to CharlieKirk. com.