00:00:49.000He's done an amazing job building one of the most powerful youth organizations ever created, Turning Point USA.
00:00:56.000We will not embrace the ideas that have destroyed countries, destroyed lives, and we are going to fight for freedom on campuses across the country.
00:01:45.000Well, I was there for about an hour and a half.
00:01:47.000I really had a call to allow conference to have a discussion over what appears to be the case that became clear after we broke yesterday once there was a vote to nominate Steve Scalise.
00:02:03.000And that is became apparent, I think, to Steve's team that he didn't have 217 votes that he needs to get elected on the floor with Republicans.
00:02:13.000And so this conversation is an effort to work through that.
00:02:19.000You know, a number of people spoke of their support for Steve, and he does have support, but people spoke of their reasons for not agreeing, and they are issues that can't be resolved.
00:02:32.000Some spoke about Steve's health concerns.
00:02:36.000But for those members, there's no way to displace that concern.
00:02:41.000People spoke about there not being a plan, that Steve doesn't appear to have a plan, whereas Jim Jordan does.
00:02:50.000He answered at length, but it sort of remains.
00:02:54.000And so I think these concerns aren't being displaced, aren't being answered, and we see other indications.
00:02:59.000It doesn't appear that Steve Scalise can get to 218, 217, I guess is the number technically that we need now.
00:03:07.000We'll see what else develops, but I would still say I think when it all is said and done, the person who can get to 217 is Jim Jordan.
00:03:16.000And so it's a question of who can we support that can actually get to that number.
00:03:22.000So are you now saying officially you are supporting Jim Jordan for Speaker of the House?
00:03:27.000Well, I've said before the vote the other day, I said that I'm for Jim Jordan for Speaker, but this is sort of more of an iterative process beyond that.
00:03:39.000Now, if Steve goes to the floor, having won the nomination from conference, I haven't decided for sure what I would do on the first ballot.
00:03:49.000But if Steve's problem remains and I don't really see the indication that it's being resolved, then my support for Jim Jordan certainly would be as enthusiastic as ever.
00:04:01.000And I believe that it is the answer that is maybe not yet apparent to everyone else in conference.
00:04:06.000But again, the objections that there are, I gave a couple of examples.
00:04:12.000They don't exist, I think, to Jim Jordan.
00:04:14.000Those people who are conservatives are obviously fans of Jordan.
00:04:21.000He's been a very big team player here in the conference.
00:04:25.000There are a couple of people who are irritated that at some point in time in the past he didn't help them in their campaigns.
00:04:32.000But again, as he said, that's a different ballgame than once he's speaker and he'll help everybody.
00:04:37.000So I think it seems to me that that is the person who is in the position ultimately to draw the 217 votes that are necessary to elect the next speaker.
00:05:23.000Do you think that then the moderate wing is going to try to hold this up?
00:05:27.000And do you think there might be some hangover McCarthy loyalists that might just try to slow this down, maybe for spite or for any other reasons?
00:05:38.000Can you fill us into some of those dynamics?
00:05:40.000I would say that I think there are some establishmentarians, people who've been around here running things the way they want to run them for a long time, and they're not particularly inclined towards seeing a change of regime.
00:05:56.000So one of the other things you've heard spoken about, Steve, is after everything that's happened, it seems like the least likely resolution is just to advance the next person down and run and get everybody, give everybody a promotion.
00:06:12.000Well, I think that's okay with the old guard, but then the old guard seems to be resisting.
00:06:17.000But I believe ultimately, once we get through the stages of grief, I think Jim's going to be the one who can get the votes from every corner of the conference.
00:06:50.000It has much more impact than people generally believe, but they should say they should call their congressman's offices in the Republican conference and tell them that that's where they think the answer lies, if indeed that's their view.
00:07:04.000That Jim Jordan brings together all parts.
00:07:07.000The Republican base has confidence in Jim Jordan.
00:07:11.000He's shown himself to be a national figure, a great communicator.
00:07:17.000That is perhaps the most important thing of all is to get someone who no one doubts is candid and truthful in talking and speaking to the American people.
00:07:27.000Truthful, even when telling the American people that there are limits to what can be achieved all at one time.
00:07:33.000So, if folks think Jim Jordan, as I do, is the person who ultimately can put together 217 votes, unify the Republican Conference, and provide a new dawn of leadership here in the Republican House majority, then let your congressman know that.
00:07:50.000All right, Congressman Bishop, thank you so much.
00:07:52.000Sorry for any of the technical issues and the delay.
00:07:54.000We are going to continue to mobilize our audience behind Jim Jordan for Speaker of the House.
00:09:29.000Okay, we're going to go through the whole deal because I think it's important because the conservative movement is far from united on this.
00:09:37.000I think there is unanimous harmony on the outrage of what happened.
00:09:41.000You're not seeing conservatives in the street chanting gas the Jews.
00:09:45.000That is reserved just for liberal Democrats.
00:09:49.000But there's going to be some, you're going to live through a pretty consequential time right now of how should the American right and the American conservative coalition support Israel, not support Israel, and think about it.
00:10:03.000You're about to live through something historic because it's not going to be full-fledged agreement.
00:10:07.000I'm going to walk through the different groups, the different tribes in regards to the Israel situation.
00:10:14.000From Tucker Carlson to Vivek to Nikki Haley, Lindsey Graham.
00:13:05.000I'm just probably more pro-Israel than some of the people in this.
00:13:07.000Let's just say, like Vivek Ramaswamy, okay?
00:13:10.000Which are people that are very, very skeptical, okay, of foreign interventions, very skeptical of sending troops, very skeptical of foreign wars, and honestly, people that are just tired of the Middle East.
00:13:23.000And I'm largely in that camp, to be honest.
00:13:25.000However, I do kind of traverse the next camp as well, which is, I love Israel.
00:13:31.000Not as much as I love America, but Israel strengthened my faith as a Christian.
00:13:35.000And I am in the debt of Israel to be able to see where my Lord rose from the dead, walked on the water.
00:15:27.000So, some of the people that are more in the camp that would say we do not want to intervene, I got to defend them because it's very, very understandable because they're looking at what's happening in Israel.
00:15:40.000And I'll tell you this: you know, the media is, I know the next wave of articles because they've been way too critical of the Islamists lately in the media.
00:15:49.000The next wave of articles, you heard it here first over the weekend.
00:15:54.000Right-wing conspiracies spread about Netanyahu government knowing about attack or, you know, some I guarantee you that's the next round of articles by the New York Times, The Washington Post.
00:16:07.000And I got to be honest, I do not fault people after how much we have been lied to and how we are usually presented a narrative that seems to be clean and pristine when in reality, it's built on a pile of lies.
00:16:23.000Whether it be the origin of COVID, the Hunter Biden laptop, vaccine safe and effective, all the Ukraine stuff, southern borders completely and totally secure.
00:16:34.000I didn't discuss any business dealings with my son.
00:18:23.000Rich, I've been telling Andrew to try to book you for quite some time now from Big Data Poll.
00:18:29.000You do a great job and we have you on frequently.
00:18:32.000So, Rich, as soon as I started to see the whispers that RFK Jr. was running as an independent, we did an entire show building out just based on anecdotal evidence, based on some political instincts that we've developed, that this would hurt Donald Trump far more than it would hurt Joe Biden.
00:19:22.000And then what is the RFK effect with West and the race?
00:19:25.000And people can go and check it out now, bigdatapoll.com, and they'll see.
00:19:29.000Look, Charlie, you know, there's kind of the macro way people were looking at this.
00:19:33.000Oh, he's a Democrat, and automatically he's going to pull from Biden.
00:19:37.000There was that side of the macro argument.
00:19:40.000And then there's another one, which is one that I suspected, which was that there's only room for one outsider in a presidential race.
00:19:49.000Like if you're looking at it macro from a macro point of view and you're looking at it at like lanes, like we do in a primary, right?
00:19:56.000There is one establishment candidate, two outsiders or two anti-establishment candidates.
00:20:02.000They're going to split the anti-establishment vote at least some way, no matter how, whether it's 80-20, 90-10, doesn't matter.
00:20:08.000But they're going to split it, and that's going to allow the establishment candidate to win.
00:20:12.000So we decided to, you know, that this poll was going to be the micro way of looking at this that was going to once and for all decide which one was right.
00:20:21.000And the short answer, Charlie, is that it hurts Donald Trump about a point more than it hurts Joe Biden.
00:20:29.000And the reason for that is, I mean, I would like to say it's simple, but it's not that cut and dry.
00:20:35.000Trump leads by two when it's just him and Biden and a generic someone else.
00:20:40.000He leads by one when RFK is in the race.
00:20:43.000If you put West in there, he leads by three.
00:20:48.000Actually, the mere talk, Charlie, the mere talk of an independent run by RFK decreased the share of the two-party vote because there is an appetite out there for a legitimate independent run.
00:20:59.000Now, campaigns go on and people decide to make choices, and often that third-party vote share will decline.
00:21:05.000And we'll probably see the two-party vote share go back up.
00:21:11.000RFK, despite his name, despite him being a Kennedy, despite him being from the Northeast, the Northeast, anywhere between 18% to 20% of the total vote nationwide is the smallest, but it's the most liberal.
00:21:24.000That is where RFK gets not just total votes.
00:21:27.000He gets the least share of the vote from the Northeast.
00:21:31.000If you look at who RFK voters are, they come from the South, which is 35 to 38% of the total vote nationwide.
00:21:39.000The South is the largest group for RFK, followed by, guess where?
00:21:44.000And by the way, the South is the most Republican, followed by the Midwest, which is about 22% of the vote.
00:21:51.000And then followed closely behind that is the Western part of the country.
00:21:56.000So it hurts Trump because it is drawing voters who, without RFK in the race, would otherwise back Donald Trump.
00:22:04.000By education, RFK does not have support from educated voters.
00:22:11.000You could look at it like a ladder from high school to post-grad, you're going down the ladder, right?
00:22:16.000And it's 12 points something among those who have no high school or high school and GD equivalent or lower.
00:22:23.000Among those who have a two-year associate's degree, he gets about 10%, which is Trump's strongest group.
00:22:29.000And then when you get into the educated, he falls into the single digits.
00:22:33.000Again, Charlie, there are more conservatives in this country than there are liberals.
00:22:37.000So if you're getting an equal share, slightly more, one point more share from conservatives, you're drawing more of the conservative vote than you're drawing of the liberal vote.
00:22:47.000It's about 12% for each, a little bit more for conservative, but it's twice the actual number of votes coming from conservatives.
00:22:55.000So I understand how some other pollsters could screw this up.
00:23:02.000And you may even think, you know, looking at it nationally, it helps Trump a little bit, but not when you look at this from a micro-demographic point of view.
00:23:10.000And this election is decided by the Electoral College.
00:23:14.000Individual races in all of our states.
00:23:17.000It is not decided by the national popular vote.
00:23:20.000So you could seriously have a situation where Trump wins the popular vote by a point and loses the Electoral College.
00:23:27.000Because of Macomb County, Michigan, because of Monroe County, Michigan.
00:24:29.000You may think that looks good to you and your voters, but it's going to hurt the normies that you need in the Rust Belt because they are vaccine hesitant as well.
00:24:38.000And then there is also, Charlie, I think just this group of people who feel that the entire system is rigged.
00:24:45.000And when they hear RFK say things like, you know, we don't have true capitalism or true freedom in this country.
00:24:52.000We have a split system that is some soft, cushy form of socialism for the rich and then a brutal form of fascism-capitalism hybrid for everybody else down below.
00:25:04.000People are receptive to that in parts of, again, the Rust Belt, the South.
00:25:09.000I don't think it's going to be enough to cost Trump southern states, even though his vote share comes from the South.
00:25:21.00075% of all of those who said they would vote for RFK are white.
00:25:26.000Though the electorate is only going to be 68 to 72, maybe 67 to 71% white in 2024.
00:25:34.000So he's drawing a disproportionately high share of the white vote, and he's doing it in regions of the country that are white and that Trump needs.
00:25:42.000I don't think it's going to cost him Kentucky or Tennessee, but think about Georgia.
00:25:46.000If he's not pulling black voters significantly from Joe Biden and West does not get on the ballot, he could pull enough in central and southern Georgia to cost Donald Trump Georgia.
00:25:55.000I think it's time people really start waking up to this.
00:25:58.000You know, do I think right now we're at a point where that's going to happen?
00:26:02.000Trump's lead to me looks durable enough at this moment.
00:26:05.000But Charlie, you and I both know it doesn't matter who the nominee is.
00:26:09.000It doesn't, you know, I heard this nonsense yesterday from the pollstered Fox News.
00:26:14.000Well, Trump's only down because so many Democrats want to vote if Trump's the nominee.
00:26:19.000Democrats are going to vote, and they're going to vote in incredibly high numbers, whether they themselves cast those ballots or they get others to cast them for them.
00:26:30.000And you just simply cannot have somebody pulling any votes away from you in states that are going to come down to the wire.
00:26:38.000Right now, I would say he's still got it, Charlie, and it's durable enough.
00:26:42.000But God, it turns a comfortable win into a nail biter, Charlie.
00:26:48.000So with Cornell West not being on the Green Party, running as an independent, question one, we have three minutes remaining.
00:26:54.000Does that limit potential for ballot access?
00:26:57.000Question two, Cornell West in general.
00:27:00.000How does that factor into the RFK thing?
00:27:04.000Yeah, if you're a Trump supporter, if you're a Republican, you absolutely want Cornell West on the ballot with or without RFK on the ballot as well, because he does draw enough away from Joe Biden.
00:27:17.000And by the way, he pulls a little bit away from RFK as well.
00:27:32.000But if you add West to the mix, it goes back up to Trump plus three because there comes a point in Trump's vote where it just refuses to fall anymore.
00:27:40.000And that is the core of Trump's support.
00:27:54.000I think we're all going to find out that Democrats bought Cornell West a vacation home somewhere and he gave up the Green Party, which has two things he does not: experience and organization.
00:28:27.000They are thrilled because RFK Jr. is a low-trust candidate, meaning vote for me if you have low trust in government, low trust in institutions.
00:28:36.000Donald Trump is a low-trust candidate.
00:28:39.000Cornell West is basically black identitarianism, right?
00:28:44.000That hurts the Democrats, especially in Georgia, especially in Wisconsin.
00:28:49.000Arizona, I don't think he moves the dial much, right?
00:29:26.000And, you know, Democrats are having a series of clandestine meetings where they are working the ropes, doing threats, gifts, carrots, little spice, little sugar, a little jail time, whatever it takes to get these guys out of the way, they do it.
00:29:45.000If you guys love this program and you want to support this program, if we have impacted or blessed your life in any way, I want to tell you about a new thing that we are starting it up.
00:29:54.000First of all, if you have supported us at charliekirk.com/slash support, nothing to worry about.
00:29:59.000You guys are going to be moved on over.
00:30:01.000If you want to support us even more and say, hey, I want exclusive content.
00:30:37.000Head to members.charliekirk.com today.
00:30:40.000Yes, there's going to be a lot of goodies, a lot of engagement, a lot of fun stuff.
00:30:43.000But even more than that, if you feel moved and compelled that our show is impacting you and impacting the world, it would mean a lot if you became a member at members.charliekirk.com.
00:30:56.000So, Rich, I'm a big college football fan.
00:32:32.000And then with RFK, his lead falls to the low single digits, a little over three points.
00:32:38.000So even though, again, on the surface, I understand what people are saying, but when you look at the individual demographics and where are these people, Charlie, where do they live?
00:34:32.000As time moves on, there's 30 plus percent every poll, Charlie, when we ask people if they're voting for RFK, what happens if RFK is not the nominee, the Democratic nominee?