The Charlie Kirk Show - October 13, 2023


The RFK Trap with Rich Baris and Rep. Dan Bishop


Episode Stats


Length

36 minutes

Words per minute

173.88991

Word count

6,318

Sentence count

528

Harmful content

Misogyny

4

sentences flagged

Toxicity

16

sentences flagged

Hate speech

8

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

Rich Barris joins the show to talk about the speaker race and why he thinks Jim Jordan is the best choice to replace Steve Scalise as Speaker of the House. Plus, Dan Bishop makes a big announcement about the Speaker race.

Transcript

Transcripts from "The Charlie Kirk Show" are sourced from the Knowledge Fight Interactive Search Tool. Explore them interactively here.
Misogyny classifications generated with MilaNLProc/bert-base-uncased-ear-misogyny .
Toxicity classifications generated with s-nlp/roberta_toxicity_classifier .
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
00:00:00.000 Hey, everybody.
00:00:00.000 Than the Charlie Kirk Show.
00:00:01.000 Rich Barris joins the program.
00:00:03.000 Does RFK Jr. help us or hurt us?
00:00:07.000 So check that out.
00:00:08.000 It's a great part of this episode.
00:00:10.000 And then Dan Bishop makes a big announcement about the speaker's race.
00:00:14.000 That's right.
00:00:15.000 We still don't have a speaker.
00:00:16.000 Email us as always, freedom at charliekirk.com.
00:00:19.000 Become a member, charliekirk.com, and click on the members tab.
00:00:22.000 Get involved with Turning PointUSA today at tpusa.com.
00:00:25.000 That is tpusa.com, starting high school or college chapter today at tpusa.com.
00:00:32.000 Buckle up, everybody.
00:00:34.000 Here we go.
00:00:35.000 Charlie, what you've done is incredible here.
00:00:36.000 Maybe Charlie Kirk is on the college campus.
00:00:38.000 I want you to know we are lucky to have Charlie Kirk.
00:00:42.000 Charlie Kirk's running the White House, folks.
00:00:45.000 I want to thank Charlie.
00:00:46.000 He's an incredible guy.
00:00:47.000 His spirit, his love of this country.
00:00:49.000 He's done an amazing job building one of the most powerful youth organizations ever created, Turning Point USA.
00:00:56.000 We will not embrace the ideas that have destroyed countries, destroyed lives, and we are going to fight for freedom on campuses across the country.
00:01:04.000 That's why we are here.
00:01:08.000 Brought to you by the Loan Experts I Trust, Andrew and Todd at Sierra Pacific Mortgage at andrewandTodd.com.
00:01:16.000 We still do not have a Speaker of the House.
00:01:19.000 And Smart Money was looking at, oh, Steve Scalise.
00:01:22.000 It looks like Steve Scalise is not.
00:01:22.000 Nope.
00:01:24.000 And I want to ask our next guest about that, who's going to make some news.
00:01:28.000 He is fighting the good fight for our country and Congress, Congressman Dan Bishop, who just got out of a conference meeting.
00:01:35.000 Congressman, thank you for taking the time.
00:01:38.000 What is the latest with the speaker fight?
00:01:40.000 Fill us in.
00:01:41.000 Hi, Charlie.
00:01:42.000 I've stepped out.
00:01:43.000 The meeting is still going on.
00:01:45.000 Well, I was there for about an hour and a half.
00:01:47.000 I really had a call to allow conference to have a discussion over what appears to be the case that became clear after we broke yesterday once there was a vote to nominate Steve Scalise.
00:02:03.000 And that is became apparent, I think, to Steve's team that he didn't have 217 votes that he needs to get elected on the floor with Republicans.
00:02:13.000 And so this conversation is an effort to work through that.
00:02:19.000 You know, a number of people spoke of their support for Steve, and he does have support, but people spoke of their reasons for not agreeing, and they are issues that can't be resolved.
00:02:32.000 Some spoke about Steve's health concerns.
00:02:34.000 He gave assurances about that.
00:02:36.000 But for those members, there's no way to displace that concern.
00:02:41.000 People spoke about there not being a plan, that Steve doesn't appear to have a plan, whereas Jim Jordan does.
00:02:50.000 He answered at length, but it sort of remains.
00:02:54.000 And so I think these concerns aren't being displaced, aren't being answered, and we see other indications.
00:02:59.000 It doesn't appear that Steve Scalise can get to 218, 217, I guess is the number technically that we need now.
00:03:07.000 We'll see what else develops, but I would still say I think when it all is said and done, the person who can get to 217 is Jim Jordan.
00:03:16.000 And so it's a question of who can we support that can actually get to that number.
00:03:22.000 So are you now saying officially you are supporting Jim Jordan for Speaker of the House?
00:03:27.000 Well, I've said before the vote the other day, I said that I'm for Jim Jordan for Speaker, but this is sort of more of an iterative process beyond that.
00:03:39.000 Now, if Steve goes to the floor, having won the nomination from conference, I haven't decided for sure what I would do on the first ballot.
00:03:49.000 But if Steve's problem remains and I don't really see the indication that it's being resolved, then my support for Jim Jordan certainly would be as enthusiastic as ever.
00:04:01.000 And I believe that it is the answer that is maybe not yet apparent to everyone else in conference.
00:04:06.000 But again, the objections that there are, I gave a couple of examples.
00:04:12.000 They don't exist, I think, to Jim Jordan.
00:04:14.000 Those people who are conservatives are obviously fans of Jordan.
00:04:19.000 But it's beyond that.
00:04:21.000 He's been a very big team player here in the conference.
00:04:25.000 There are a couple of people who are irritated that at some point in time in the past he didn't help them in their campaigns.
00:04:32.000 But again, as he said, that's a different ballgame than once he's speaker and he'll help everybody.
00:04:37.000 So I think it seems to me that that is the person who is in the position ultimately to draw the 217 votes that are necessary to elect the next speaker.
00:04:49.000 I hope it happens faster than slower.
00:04:52.000 And again, I'll go on the floor and cast a vote for Steve Scalise.
00:04:57.000 If I'm wrong about where he stands or all the indications, then he'll become Speaker.
00:05:02.000 But I'm just saying that I don't think he's being able to deal.
00:05:07.000 I don't think he was able to make telephone calls and put to bed the problems.
00:05:11.000 And I don't think this meeting is going to do it either.
00:05:13.000 So, Congressman, that's a big deal saying that Jim Jordan is the only one that is then able to get to 217.
00:05:22.000 That's a big thing.
00:05:23.000 Do you think that then the moderate wing is going to try to hold this up?
00:05:27.000 And do you think there might be some hangover McCarthy loyalists that might just try to slow this down, maybe for spite or for any other reasons?
00:05:38.000 Can you fill us into some of those dynamics?
00:05:40.000 I would say that I think there are some establishmentarians, people who've been around here running things the way they want to run them for a long time, and they're not particularly inclined towards seeing a change of regime.
00:05:56.000 So one of the other things you've heard spoken about, Steve, is after everything that's happened, it seems like the least likely resolution is just to advance the next person down and run and get everybody, give everybody a promotion.
00:06:10.000 That doesn't seem to be the answer.
00:06:12.000 Well, I think that's okay with the old guard, but then the old guard seems to be resisting.
00:06:17.000 But I believe ultimately, once we get through the stages of grief, I think Jim's going to be the one who can get the votes from every corner of the conference.
00:06:28.000 So, Congressman, that's very helpful.
00:06:31.000 What is the best way our audience can help to try and support this effort to make Jim Jordan speaker?
00:06:40.000 Where do you see the greatest need of support from the American grassroots and from our audience?
00:06:45.000 Congressman Dan Bishop.
00:06:47.000 Voice their opinions, Charlie.
00:06:48.000 Voice their opinions.
00:06:50.000 It has much more impact than people generally believe, but they should say they should call their congressman's offices in the Republican conference and tell them that that's where they think the answer lies, if indeed that's their view.
00:07:04.000 That Jim Jordan brings together all parts.
00:07:07.000 The Republican base has confidence in Jim Jordan.
00:07:11.000 He's shown himself to be a national figure, a great communicator.
00:07:15.000 He has been an honest broker.
00:07:17.000 That is perhaps the most important thing of all is to get someone who no one doubts is candid and truthful in talking and speaking to the American people.
00:07:27.000 Truthful, even when telling the American people that there are limits to what can be achieved all at one time.
00:07:33.000 So, if folks think Jim Jordan, as I do, is the person who ultimately can put together 217 votes, unify the Republican Conference, and provide a new dawn of leadership here in the Republican House majority, then let your congressman know that.
00:07:50.000 All right, Congressman Bishop, thank you so much.
00:07:52.000 Sorry for any of the technical issues and the delay.
00:07:54.000 We are going to continue to mobilize our audience behind Jim Jordan for Speaker of the House.
00:07:59.000 It would be a massive accomplishment.
00:08:00.000 Congressman Bishop, thank you so much.
00:08:02.000 Thank you, Charlie.
00:08:03.000 Email us freedom at charliekirk.com.
00:08:06.000 We have Rich Barris coming up in just a few minutes to talk about the RFK situation because I think we're right.
00:08:15.000 I got to be honest.
00:08:16.000 I think we're right.
00:08:17.000 I think it's going to hurt Trump.
00:08:18.000 I really do.
00:08:19.000 I'm going to be super interested.
00:08:21.000 We're going to have a whole conversation on that.
00:08:23.000 I want to replay this piece of tape here.
00:08:26.000 Let's play cut 101, please.
00:08:28.000 When Mark Milley was asked whether or not it was worth it, play cut 101, please.
00:08:34.000 To those who served in Afghanistan for two decades and lost family members and friends and wonder, was it worth it?
00:08:43.000 Well, that's always the question, right?
00:08:45.000 So 2,461 killed in action by the enemy in Afghanistan over 20 years.
00:08:50.000 Was it worth it?
00:08:51.000 Look, I can't answer that for other people.
00:08:54.000 That should be instructive for us.
00:08:57.000 That should be that right there should factor into our response to what we are going to do or not do in the Middle East.
00:09:07.000 Coming up after the break, I'm going to describe the different tribes and the different sects, sex, like sectarian. 0.51
00:09:16.000 Don't get too excited out there, you dirty-mind people that are out there on how they're thinking about Israel. 0.96
00:09:24.000 I'm going to just kind of go through it all, everything from Lady Graham to Jew haters. 0.92
00:09:24.000 Okay? 0.92
00:09:29.000 Okay, we're going to go through the whole deal because I think it's important because the conservative movement is far from united on this.
00:09:37.000 I think there is unanimous harmony on the outrage of what happened.
00:09:41.000 You're not seeing conservatives in the street chanting gas the Jews.
00:09:45.000 That is reserved just for liberal Democrats.
00:09:47.000 Liberal Democrats do that.
00:09:49.000 But there's going to be some, you're going to live through a pretty consequential time right now of how should the American right and the American conservative coalition support Israel, not support Israel, and think about it.
00:10:03.000 You're about to live through something historic because it's not going to be full-fledged agreement.
00:10:07.000 I'm going to walk through the different groups, the different tribes in regards to the Israel situation.
00:10:14.000 From Tucker Carlson to Vivek to Nikki Haley, Lindsey Graham.
00:10:18.000 We're going to walk through that.
00:10:21.000 Strong cell is amazing.
00:10:23.000 I got to tell you, the combination of NADH, CoQ10, and collagen is really something.
00:10:29.000 You know, people ask me, they say, Charlie, how do you keep your energy up?
00:10:32.000 How do you just keep on pushing?
00:10:33.000 Look, part of it is diet nutrition, but I'll be honest, I take supplements really seriously.
00:10:39.000 Fact-check me on this.
00:10:40.000 You can say, oh, Charlie, I'm going to fact-check you.
00:10:42.000 Type this into your search engine: NADH.
00:10:46.000 Just type it in.
00:10:47.000 What does it tell you?
00:10:49.000 It might tell you that it is the secret to living long, anti-aging properties, more energy.
00:10:54.000 Well, all of that is being proven in more and more clinical trials.
00:10:56.000 NADH is a precursor so that your mitochondria can remain healthy and vibrant.
00:11:03.000 The elites, a lot of billionaires, people, a lot of money, they spend a ton of money on NAD.
00:11:06.000 It's a fact.
00:11:07.000 NAD just might be your secret weapon for more energy.
00:11:10.000 I take NAD every single day.
00:11:13.000 I could tell you that NADH, compared with CoQ10, the trials show very, very good things.
00:11:19.000 Don't take my word for it.
00:11:20.000 I mean, honestly, my word should be good for something, but fact-check me.
00:11:23.000 Look at it.
00:11:24.000 And if you do it over 30 days, you'll see an increase in energy.
00:11:27.000 I wake up better than ever before.
00:11:29.000 NAD can help you potentially, again, fact check me on this with depression, anxiety, other issues that you might be dealing with.
00:11:36.000 It is nature's gift to you so that you might have extra energy and mental clarity.
00:11:41.000 You guys can use promo code Charlie for 20% off.
00:11:43.000 It's strongsell.com/slash Charlie.
00:11:46.000 NAD might be nature's secret weapon for you.
00:11:51.000 I love it.
00:11:52.000 I take it every single day.
00:11:54.000 Try to try it for at least 30 days to see the maximum benefit.
00:11:57.000 And let me know: has NAD helped your life?
00:11:59.000 Strongsell.com/slash Charlie.
00:12:01.000 Check it out.
00:12:02.000 Strongsell.com/slash Charlie.
00:12:06.000 This is important.
00:12:07.000 The kind of temporary conservative agreement on Israel is about to come to an end.
00:12:13.000 I'm telling you right now, I see the writing on the wall.
00:12:15.000 It's about to get really divisive.
00:12:19.000 You heard it here first.
00:12:20.000 So there's different groups.
00:12:22.000 The first group really doesn't deserve much of our attention.
00:12:25.000 There is legitimate, small, not widespread, fervent Jew hatred in the American right.
00:12:32.000 It's not a lot of people.
00:12:35.000 It is a thing.
00:12:39.000 It's been around for decades.
00:12:40.000 It's just how it is. 0.96
00:12:41.000 Jew hatred is one of the more vile things that any human being can come across. 0.81
00:12:45.000 And I encountered it at an event with Arizona State University with Dennis Prager.
00:12:48.000 It's small, but it's there.
00:12:49.000 Okay.
00:12:50.000 And some of them push forward narratives that then get adopted by people that don't actually hate Jews.
00:12:59.000 But I'll get to that in a second.
00:13:00.000 The next category are people, and I fall somewhat in this category, to be honest.
00:13:00.000 Okay.
00:13:05.000 I'm just probably more pro-Israel than some of the people in this.
00:13:07.000 Let's just say, like Vivek Ramaswamy, okay?
00:13:10.000 Which are people that are very, very skeptical, okay, of foreign interventions, very skeptical of sending troops, very skeptical of foreign wars, and honestly, people that are just tired of the Middle East.
00:13:23.000 And I'm largely in that camp, to be honest.
00:13:25.000 However, I do kind of traverse the next camp as well, which is, I love Israel.
00:13:31.000 Not as much as I love America, but Israel strengthened my faith as a Christian.
00:13:35.000 And I am in the debt of Israel to be able to see where my Lord rose from the dead, walked on the water.
00:13:42.000 Okay.
00:13:43.000 The next group, the third out of four, are people that on the American right are pro-Israel and they want to send support.
00:13:52.000 They want to send arms.
00:13:55.000 They want to send reconnaissance, maybe even air support.
00:13:59.000 Okay.
00:14:01.000 That's a pretty big group. 0.90
00:14:03.000 The last group are the insane people. 0.64
00:14:06.000 Okay. 0.99
00:14:07.000 They don't hate Jews.
00:14:08.000 They just love war.
00:14:09.000 And that's like Lindsey Graham and Nikki Haley and that whole cabal.
00:14:13.000 Okay. 0.92
00:14:14.000 So I'm not going to pay much attention to Nikki Haley and Lindsey Graham and Mike Pence, who are just saying ridiculous things, honestly. 0.63
00:14:23.000 Okay. 0.98
00:14:24.000 And I'm not going to pay much attention to the Jew haters.
00:14:27.000 I will instead talk about where this is going to head.
00:14:31.000 The serious conversation will head to the following, which is what should America's reaction to what's happening in Israel be?
00:14:41.000 And that's a good conversation to have.
00:14:43.000 And to be honest, I've said this the whole time.
00:14:45.000 I'm kind of a moderate on it.
00:14:47.000 I am a war-weary millennial, millennial that has known nothing but foreign conflict since my earliest memories.
00:14:53.000 Nation building has bankrupted the United States, morally and financially bankrupted us.
00:14:58.000 It's been a failure in Iraq, failure in Afghanistan. 0.88
00:15:01.000 Ukraine is a disaster. 0.96
00:15:02.000 That is important to keep on mentioning.
00:15:04.000 It's not insignificant.
00:15:06.000 It's very, very important.
00:15:08.000 All the while, you must use prudence and reality that Israel is a different situation at this current moment.
00:15:15.000 It just is.
00:15:16.000 Some ways there's similarities, in some ways, there's differences. 1.00
00:15:18.000 And yes, the Nikki Haley types are going to try to take advantage of the situation to try to just invade the world. 1.00
00:15:26.000 Garbage. 0.90
00:15:27.000 So, some of the people that are more in the camp that would say we do not want to intervene, I got to defend them because it's very, very understandable because they're looking at what's happening in Israel. 0.97
00:15:40.000 And I'll tell you this: you know, the media is, I know the next wave of articles because they've been way too critical of the Islamists lately in the media.
00:15:49.000 The next wave of articles, you heard it here first over the weekend.
00:15:52.000 You've heard it here first.
00:15:54.000 Right-wing conspiracies spread about Netanyahu government knowing about attack or, you know, some I guarantee you that's the next round of articles by the New York Times, The Washington Post.
00:16:07.000 And I got to be honest, I do not fault people after how much we have been lied to and how we are usually presented a narrative that seems to be clean and pristine when in reality, it's built on a pile of lies.
00:16:23.000 Whether it be the origin of COVID, the Hunter Biden laptop, vaccine safe and effective, all the Ukraine stuff, southern borders completely and totally secure.
00:16:34.000 I didn't discuss any business dealings with my son.
00:16:37.000 I don't trust the government.
00:16:38.000 And I think a lot of other people don't trust the government.
00:16:41.000 And I mean, I get these emails every so often.
00:16:43.000 They say, Charlie, I don't trust anything that's coming out of Israel. 1.00
00:16:47.000 I get where you're coming from.
00:16:48.000 I really do.
00:16:49.000 But I got to be honest, this one is actually pretty easy to see.
00:16:54.000 Video, pictures, first-hand testimony of kids being killed, burned alive.
00:17:01.000 It's not a psyop.
00:17:02.000 So you have to balance that and understand where people are coming from because they have been burned so many times.
00:17:10.000 Worth building that out further.
00:17:12.000 You're about to see a pretty serious debate unfold in the American right over Israel.
00:17:20.000 Hey, everybody, Charlie Kirk here.
00:17:21.000 And like many of you, I'm a busy guy balancing family, show, travel, and TPUSA.
00:17:26.000 When I needed a mortgage, I went to my friends, Andrew Delray and Todd of Aiki at Sierra Pacific.
00:17:31.000 And look, I had some complicated stuff.
00:17:31.000 They were amazing.
00:17:33.000 Don't need to go into the details.
00:17:34.000 They handled it personally.
00:17:37.000 Call them if you have an aging family member, for example, that needs some financial relief.
00:17:41.000 Ask them about a reverse mortgage.
00:17:43.000 If you're self-employed and are finding it difficult to qualify because of that, they have my 100% full and complete endorsement.
00:17:50.000 Call them and help you prepare.
00:17:51.000 I'm telling you, anything mortgage-related, please call them and not the big woke bags. 0.97
00:17:55.000 Go to AndrewandTodd.com.
00:17:56.000 That's AndrewandTodd.com.
00:17:58.000 Fill out the quick form and they will get back to you with answers.
00:18:00.000 Call them at 888-888-1172, AndrewNTodd.com.
00:18:04.000 They're good friends of mine.
00:18:06.000 Full and complete endorsement.
00:18:07.000 If you are a first-time homebuyer, renting, and want to be, they'll call and help you prepare.
00:18:11.000 Check it out.
00:18:12.000 AndrewandTodd.com.
00:18:13.000 That is AndrewNTodd.com.
00:18:16.000 Fill out the quick form and they'll get you back with answers, andrewTodd.com.
00:18:21.000 Joining us now is Rich Barris.
00:18:23.000 Rich, I've been telling Andrew to try to book you for quite some time now from Big Data Poll.
00:18:29.000 You do a great job and we have you on frequently.
00:18:32.000 So, Rich, as soon as I started to see the whispers that RFK Jr. was running as an independent, we did an entire show building out just based on anecdotal evidence, based on some political instincts that we've developed, that this would hurt Donald Trump far more than it would hurt Joe Biden.
00:18:53.000 Rich, you're a data guy.
00:18:55.000 Feel free to say, Charlie, you are right.
00:18:57.000 You are wrong, whatever.
00:18:58.000 What does the data show, Rich Barris, RFK Jr., running as an independent in regards to Trump and Biden?
00:19:06.000 As always, Charlie, thanks for having me back on.
00:19:09.000 It's been too long.
00:19:09.000 You're right.
00:19:11.000 I'm glad to be back.
00:19:12.000 Look, there's a couple of ways that people looked at this anecdotally.
00:19:16.000 And we just did this survey, which is the main theme of the survey is what is the impact?
00:19:20.000 What is the RFK effect?
00:19:22.000 And then what is the RFK effect with West and the race? 0.71
00:19:25.000 And people can go and check it out now, bigdatapoll.com, and they'll see.
00:19:29.000 Look, Charlie, you know, there's kind of the macro way people were looking at this.
00:19:33.000 Oh, he's a Democrat, and automatically he's going to pull from Biden.
00:19:37.000 There was that side of the macro argument.
00:19:40.000 And then there's another one, which is one that I suspected, which was that there's only room for one outsider in a presidential race.
00:19:49.000 Like if you're looking at it macro from a macro point of view and you're looking at it at like lanes, like we do in a primary, right?
00:19:56.000 There is one establishment candidate, two outsiders or two anti-establishment candidates.
00:20:02.000 They're going to split the anti-establishment vote at least some way, no matter how, whether it's 80-20, 90-10, doesn't matter.
00:20:08.000 But they're going to split it, and that's going to allow the establishment candidate to win.
00:20:12.000 So we decided to, you know, that this poll was going to be the micro way of looking at this that was going to once and for all decide which one was right.
00:20:21.000 And the short answer, Charlie, is that it hurts Donald Trump about a point more than it hurts Joe Biden.
00:20:29.000 And the reason for that is, I mean, I would like to say it's simple, but it's not that cut and dry.
00:20:35.000 Trump leads by two when it's just him and Biden and a generic someone else.
00:20:40.000 He leads by one when RFK is in the race.
00:20:43.000 If you put West in there, he leads by three.
00:20:46.000 You can see that trend right there.
00:20:48.000 Actually, the mere talk, Charlie, the mere talk of an independent run by RFK decreased the share of the two-party vote because there is an appetite out there for a legitimate independent run.
00:20:59.000 Now, campaigns go on and people decide to make choices, and often that third-party vote share will decline.
00:21:05.000 And we'll probably see the two-party vote share go back up.
00:21:08.000 But let me put it by region first.
00:21:11.000 RFK, despite his name, despite him being a Kennedy, despite him being from the Northeast, the Northeast, anywhere between 18% to 20% of the total vote nationwide is the smallest, but it's the most liberal.
00:21:24.000 That is where RFK gets not just total votes.
00:21:27.000 He gets the least share of the vote from the Northeast.
00:21:31.000 If you look at who RFK voters are, they come from the South, which is 35 to 38% of the total vote nationwide.
00:21:39.000 The South is the largest group for RFK, followed by, guess where?
00:21:44.000 And by the way, the South is the most Republican, followed by the Midwest, which is about 22% of the vote.
00:21:51.000 And then followed closely behind that is the Western part of the country.
00:21:56.000 So it hurts Trump because it is drawing voters who, without RFK in the race, would otherwise back Donald Trump.
00:22:04.000 By education, RFK does not have support from educated voters.
00:22:09.000 His support is a ladder.
00:22:11.000 You could look at it like a ladder from high school to post-grad, you're going down the ladder, right?
00:22:16.000 And it's 12 points something among those who have no high school or high school and GD equivalent or lower. 0.82
00:22:23.000 Among those who have a two-year associate's degree, he gets about 10%, which is Trump's strongest group.
00:22:29.000 And then when you get into the educated, he falls into the single digits.
00:22:33.000 Again, Charlie, there are more conservatives in this country than there are liberals.
00:22:37.000 So if you're getting an equal share, slightly more, one point more share from conservatives, you're drawing more of the conservative vote than you're drawing of the liberal vote.
00:22:47.000 It's about 12% for each, a little bit more for conservative, but it's twice the actual number of votes coming from conservatives.
00:22:55.000 So I understand how some other pollsters could screw this up.
00:22:59.000 It's not hard to screw up.
00:23:02.000 And you may even think, you know, looking at it nationally, it helps Trump a little bit, but not when you look at this from a micro-demographic point of view.
00:23:10.000 And this election is decided by the Electoral College.
00:23:14.000 Individual races in all of our states.
00:23:17.000 It is not decided by the national popular vote.
00:23:20.000 So you could seriously have a situation where Trump wins the popular vote by a point and loses the Electoral College.
00:23:27.000 Because of Macomb County, Michigan, because of Monroe County, Michigan.
00:23:27.000 Why?
00:23:33.000 You need big margins from those two to offset how much you're going to get creamed in Wayne, right?
00:23:38.000 And in other areas around Wayne.
00:23:41.000 And by the way, Oakland, very educated.
00:23:43.000 He draws nothing from that part.
00:23:45.000 He draws nothing from urban centers.
00:23:48.000 So it's coming, his biggest share comes from rural America.
00:23:52.000 So, Rich, so many questions, issues.
00:23:55.000 Is this mostly a COVID revenge vote, a medical freedom that I don't like that Trump had Fauci?
00:24:03.000 You know, I don't like the vaccine.
00:24:05.000 Is that what is animating this?
00:24:07.000 We definitely heard that.
00:24:09.000 There's two things going on.
00:24:10.000 I think you nailed it, the one, because we heard that a lot.
00:24:14.000 And that's why I tried on social media to say there's a right way and a very wrong way to attack RFK if you're Donald Trump.
00:24:21.000 One could do irreparable damage.
00:24:23.000 If you go after him and say he's a nutcase on vaccines, look at him. 0.99
00:24:27.000 Even Democrats think he's nuts.
00:24:29.000 You may think that looks good to you and your voters, but it's going to hurt the normies that you need in the Rust Belt because they are vaccine hesitant as well.
00:24:38.000 And then there is also, Charlie, I think just this group of people who feel that the entire system is rigged.
00:24:45.000 And when they hear RFK say things like, you know, we don't have true capitalism or true freedom in this country.
00:24:52.000 We have a split system that is some soft, cushy form of socialism for the rich and then a brutal form of fascism-capitalism hybrid for everybody else down below.
00:25:04.000 People are receptive to that in parts of, again, the Rust Belt, the South.
00:25:09.000 I don't think it's going to be enough to cost Trump southern states, even though his vote share comes from the South.
00:25:14.000 But think about this.
00:25:15.000 Think about Georgia, Charlie.
00:25:16.000 Think about if he does not, he pulls more.
00:25:18.000 That's another demographic.
00:25:20.000 He pulls more white voters.
00:25:21.000 75% of all of those who said they would vote for RFK are white.
00:25:26.000 Though the electorate is only going to be 68 to 72, maybe 67 to 71% white in 2024.
00:25:34.000 So he's drawing a disproportionately high share of the white vote, and he's doing it in regions of the country that are white and that Trump needs. 0.59
00:25:42.000 I don't think it's going to cost him Kentucky or Tennessee, but think about Georgia.
00:25:46.000 If he's not pulling black voters significantly from Joe Biden and West does not get on the ballot, he could pull enough in central and southern Georgia to cost Donald Trump Georgia.
00:25:55.000 I think it's time people really start waking up to this.
00:25:58.000 You know, do I think right now we're at a point where that's going to happen?
00:26:02.000 Trump's lead to me looks durable enough at this moment.
00:26:05.000 But Charlie, you and I both know it doesn't matter who the nominee is.
00:26:09.000 It doesn't, you know, I heard this nonsense yesterday from the pollstered Fox News.
00:26:14.000 Well, Trump's only down because so many Democrats want to vote if Trump's the nominee.
00:26:19.000 Democrats are going to vote, and they're going to vote in incredibly high numbers, whether they themselves cast those ballots or they get others to cast them for them.
00:26:28.000 They are going to vote.
00:26:30.000 And you just simply cannot have somebody pulling any votes away from you in states that are going to come down to the wire.
00:26:38.000 Right now, I would say he's still got it, Charlie, and it's durable enough.
00:26:42.000 But God, it turns a comfortable win into a nail biter, Charlie.
00:26:48.000 So with Cornell West not being on the Green Party, running as an independent, question one, we have three minutes remaining.
00:26:54.000 Does that limit potential for ballot access?
00:26:57.000 Question two, Cornell West in general.
00:27:00.000 How does that factor into the RFK thing?
00:27:04.000 Yeah, if you're a Trump supporter, if you're a Republican, you absolutely want Cornell West on the ballot with or without RFK on the ballot as well, because he does draw enough away from Joe Biden.
00:27:17.000 And by the way, he pulls a little bit away from RFK as well.
00:27:21.000 So it's an interesting dynamic.
00:27:23.000 He pulls a few non-white votes away from RFK.
00:27:27.000 And then, you know, again, it was Trump plus two in the head-to-head.
00:27:30.000 Trump plus one with RFK alone.
00:27:32.000 But if you add West to the mix, it goes back up to Trump plus three because there comes a point in Trump's vote where it just refuses to fall anymore.
00:27:40.000 And that is the core of Trump's support.
00:27:42.000 It's about 40%.
00:27:44.000 They're MAGA.
00:27:45.000 They're not moving.
00:27:46.000 They're for Trump and they're not going anywhere.
00:27:48.000 So at some point, the more candidates on the ballot, the more it hurts them.
00:27:52.000 But it does limit ballot access.
00:27:54.000 I think we're all going to find out that Democrats bought Cornell West a vacation home somewhere and he gave up the Green Party, which has two things he does not: experience and organization.
00:28:05.000 Yeah, no, look, and here's the tell.
00:28:07.000 I monitor Democrat hysteria.
00:28:09.000 About 90 days ago, there was a political article: Biden Camp Scrambles to Keep Cornell West off-green ballot and no labels off-ballot.
00:28:17.000 No Democrat, no Democrat that I read, and I read all their trash, is upset that RFK Jr. is running at Independent.
00:28:25.000 They are thrilled.
00:28:27.000 They are thrilled because RFK Jr. is a low-trust candidate, meaning vote for me if you have low trust in government, low trust in institutions.
00:28:36.000 Donald Trump is a low-trust candidate.
00:28:39.000 Cornell West is basically black identitarianism, right? 0.80
00:28:44.000 That hurts the Democrats, especially in Georgia, especially in Wisconsin.
00:28:49.000 Arizona, I don't think he moves the dial much, right?
00:28:51.000 I'd be shocked if he surpassed 1%.
00:28:53.000 I want to ask you about no labels, but the Democrats, I know this is a fact.
00:28:58.000 Molly Ball is probably going to write the article.
00:29:00.000 The shadow campaign, how Democrats prevented RFK from primary Biden.
00:29:05.000 The shadow campaign, how, you know, Reid Hoffman bought Cornell West a home in Turks and Caicos, right?
00:29:13.000 That's coming.
00:29:14.000 I guarantee it, right?
00:29:15.000 No, no, it's it.
00:29:16.000 The Democrats have been working the ropes.
00:29:18.000 We, as Republicans, are too busy, you know, having our Chinese fire drill that we call a speaker's house race.
00:29:23.000 I don't even know what the heck it is.
00:29:24.000 It's embarrassing.
00:29:26.000 And, you know, Democrats are having a series of clandestine meetings where they are working the ropes, doing threats, gifts, carrots, little spice, little sugar, a little jail time, whatever it takes to get these guys out of the way, they do it.
00:29:44.000 Hey, Charlie Kirk here.
00:29:45.000 If you guys love this program and you want to support this program, if we have impacted or blessed your life in any way, I want to tell you about a new thing that we are starting it up.
00:29:54.000 First of all, if you have supported us at charliekirk.com/slash support, nothing to worry about.
00:29:59.000 You guys are going to be moved on over.
00:30:01.000 If you want to support us even more and say, hey, I want exclusive content.
00:30:04.000 I want to talk to Charlie directly.
00:30:06.000 We are standing up this amazing infrastructure team's been working so hard at members.charliekirk.com.
00:30:12.000 Not only is it a way to support us directly outside of all of the other channels, but get this: live QAs of me and the team.
00:30:20.000 Articles exclusively written by me that you won't find anywhere else.
00:30:23.000 Pre-show prep calls and more.
00:30:25.000 Sign up today at members.charliekirk.com.
00:30:28.000 We love bringing our show every day, and we can't wait to bring you even more content that is just for you at the Charlie Kirk exclusive.
00:30:35.000 That's members.charliekirk.com.
00:30:37.000 Head to members.charliekirk.com today.
00:30:40.000 Yes, there's going to be a lot of goodies, a lot of engagement, a lot of fun stuff.
00:30:43.000 But even more than that, if you feel moved and compelled that our show is impacting you and impacting the world, it would mean a lot if you became a member at members.charliekirk.com.
00:30:56.000 So, Rich, I'm a big college football fan.
00:30:58.000 It's one of my few indulgences.
00:30:59.000 The audience knows this.
00:31:00.000 So, I watch, I used to not be a fan of this guy, but he's actually grown on me, Pat McAfee.
00:31:06.000 And he has a very successful podcast, his college game day.
00:31:09.000 He had Aaron Rodgers on the show, right?
00:31:10.000 So, they're talking about Travis Kelsey and all that.
00:31:13.000 And Aaron Rodgers up.
00:31:14.000 He's like, we got to have my boy RFK Jr. On the show, Joe Rogan's pushing RFK Jr.
00:31:21.000 And so here you go, younger men, trendy, you know, maybe into MMA, UFC, college football, monster energy drinks.
00:31:30.000 You get the archetype, right?
00:31:31.000 Not a small group, by the way, 15 to 20 million of them.
00:31:35.000 They are not left-wingers, but it's not fashionable to be around Donald Trump, right?
00:31:39.000 And in that sort of community, the Joe Rogan bros, who do they vote for?
00:31:46.000 They're gonna, this is a group that I failed in the last segment to mention, but this is the group.
00:31:53.000 They fall into the category when we poll them.
00:31:56.000 They'll tell us they're independent, but of course, most independents are full of it.
00:31:59.000 So we always ask them, do you align more with Republicans, Democrats, equally with both?
00:32:05.000 Or do you share little in common with either of these parties?
00:32:09.000 They are the last group.
00:32:11.000 I share little in common with either.
00:32:13.000 When RFK is not in the race, Trump clobbers Joe Biden by double digits with this group.
00:32:19.000 Say that against Donald Trump.
00:32:22.000 Say that again.
00:32:22.000 No, no, no, hold on.
00:32:23.000 Slow down.
00:32:24.000 When RFK is not in the race, Trump does what?
00:32:27.000 He clobbers Joe Biden with these voters.
00:32:30.000 Almost 20 points, Charlie.
00:32:31.000 Double digits.
00:32:32.000 And then with RFK, his lead falls to the low single digits, a little over three points.
00:32:38.000 So even though, again, on the surface, I understand what people are saying, but when you look at the individual demographics and where are these people, Charlie, where do they live?
00:32:48.000 All right.
00:32:48.000 Some of them, yes, are out west.
00:32:51.000 A lot of them are in the Midwest and, of course, in southern states.
00:32:55.000 Yeah.
00:32:55.000 This is not a North Arizona.
00:32:58.000 I think Arizona by proportion in any swing state has the most Joe Rogan bros of any state.
00:33:04.000 Nevada's got a lot of them too.
00:33:05.000 Nevada.
00:33:06.000 Right. 0.66
00:33:07.000 They hunt. 0.99
00:33:08.000 They own guns.
00:33:09.000 They're a little socially liberal.
00:33:10.000 They might smoke some weed.
00:33:12.000 Right.
00:33:13.000 They're not necessarily Christian.
00:33:15.000 They own some Bitcoin, right?
00:33:17.000 They bet on sports.
00:33:19.000 They watch barstool.
00:33:20.000 They'll listen to Joe Rogan.
00:33:22.000 You know, they'll lift weights.
00:33:24.000 Right.
00:33:25.000 And that archetype, I'm telling you, there's more of that kind of voter in Arizona, a lot in Georgia, too, right?
00:33:33.000 They're 26, graduated Arizona State University, working at a finance firm or like at a local bank, right?
00:33:41.000 And RFK is fashionable, acceptable for a demographic that otherwise Trump would dominate with.
00:33:51.000 That's right.
00:33:53.000 You know, you brought up Arizona.
00:33:54.000 That's why Martha McSally lost pretty comfortably to Mark Kelly in 2020, but Trump was so close.
00:34:02.000 It is that voter.
00:34:03.000 We actually saw them and brought them up back in 2020.
00:34:07.000 They all call themselves moderate.
00:34:09.000 They'll call themselves independent.
00:34:10.000 But they're either advanced degrees, but they have between a high school education to like a four-year.
00:34:19.000 A lot of them have a two-year.
00:34:20.000 They hate big pharma.
00:34:22.000 They can't stand big pharma.
00:34:23.000 I mean, that is that group.
00:34:25.000 And with our RFK in the race, they take from Trump.
00:34:30.000 The only thing I will say is this.
00:34:32.000 As time moves on, there's 30 plus percent every poll, Charlie, when we ask people if they're voting for RFK, what happens if RFK is not the nominee, the Democratic nominee?
00:34:43.000 We've been asking this for months.
00:34:45.000 And they tell us, if it's not RFK and Trump is the Republican nominee, I will vote for Donald Trump.
00:34:52.000 Even if a third of them say to themselves, you know, RFK is not going to win.
00:34:57.000 So I want to vote at least for someone who's going to win.
00:35:00.000 Yeah, okay.
00:35:01.000 So Trump gets a third of it.
00:35:02.000 But that's not what he was going to get without RFK in the race.
00:35:06.000 If RFK is not there, he gets them all.
00:35:09.000 It's really that simple.
00:35:10.000 I recently had an event, and it was a Trump favorable event, 2,000 people.
00:35:14.000 I said, raise your hand if you're going to vote for RFK.
00:35:16.000 Say about 10% of the hands go up.
00:35:17.000 It's catastrophic for Donald Trump.
00:35:19.000 I don't think Trump can win if RFK Jr. remains as an independent and we don't have a hedge of a Cornell West or a no-labels.
00:35:26.000 I am that opinion.
00:35:28.000 And or, and, or Trump redirects his fire to bring down RFK's favorables, which you're going to have to see.
00:35:34.000 Trump might have to fight a two-front war.
00:35:36.000 Sound familiar?
00:35:37.000 He might have to fight a two-front war against RFK and Joe Biden.
00:35:40.000 But do not assume just because, oh, RFK is a Kennedy Democrat.
00:35:45.000 Think deeper.
00:35:45.000 Look at Rich Barris' data.
00:35:47.000 Big data poll.
00:35:48.000 Check out his show.
00:35:49.000 That's what's your show called?
00:35:50.000 Inside the Numbers.
00:35:52.000 Couldn't be more appropriately titled, Charlie, because that's why we do this.
00:35:56.000 You know, you can't look at the headlines at a glance.
00:35:59.000 The answers are inside the numbers.
00:36:01.000 Monday, Wednesday, Friday before your show.
00:36:03.000 Rich, thanks so much.
00:36:05.000 All the best, brother.
00:36:06.000 Thanks so much for listening, everybody.
00:36:07.000 Email us as always: freedom at charliekirk.com.
00:36:10.000 Thanks so much for listening, and God bless.
00:36:16.000 For more on many of these stories and news you can trust, go to CharlieKirk.com.