Is Josh Shapiro going to be the VP candidate in 2020? It is not yet confirmed, but it certainly looks that way. We examine it from every angle with Rich Barris and Cliff Maloney. Charlie and Rich are joined by Cliff to discuss the possibility that Josh Shapiro will be the next VP nominee. They discuss why this is bad news for the Democrats and why it could be good news for Donald Trump and the Republican Party. They also discuss why a narrower path to the White House for Kamala Harris means a narrower victory for the Trump campaign in Pennsylvania and why that is a problem for the Democratic Party. If it is not Josh Shapiro, it could spell trouble for the entire 2020 Democratic Party and the entire White House race. If it s Mark Kelly, it means a win in the Sun Belt, which is where the Democrats think they have the best chance to win in 2020. If they go all in on a Sun Belt type candidate, they have a much better shot at winning the election than they do on a Rust Belt type of candidate, which means that the path to victory in Pennsylvania is going to come down to a narrow victory. The White House runs through Pennsylvania, and that means it's time for us to double down on our efforts to win Pennsylvania! Learn how you could protect your wealth with Noble Gold Investments, a company that specializes in gold and physical delivery of precious metals. That is Noble Gold is the official gold sponsor of The Charlie Kirk Show. That's where I buy all of my gold! by becoming a patron of the show! Go to noblegold.investments.co/thecharliekirkshow to receive 20% off your first order of a piece of gold and get 20% OFF your first month of the month when you become a patron! Learn more about the show on the show and receive a 20% discount when you buy a spot on the next month's promo code CHALKERRYKIRK at CHLARAKEPRODUCING? CHILLYKREATTER? CHLARRY KIRKERRY? CHECK OUT THE CHALLENGEORGE MALONEY: CHLORDSON THE CHARM WITH ME AND MORE CHARMING YOUR PODCAST? CHALLOWING $20 AT CHARM AND A FRIENDS GET A PRICING $10 OFF THE FIRST MONTH GET $25 OFF YOUR FIRST SUBSCRIBE AND $25 AT CHILLED?
00:00:44.000He's done an amazing job building one of the most powerful youth organizations ever created, Turning Point USA.
00:00:50.000We will not embrace the ideas that have destroyed countries, destroyed lives, and we are going to fight for freedom on campuses across the country.
00:01:03.000Noble Gold Investments is the official gold sponsor of The Charlie Kirk Show, a company that specializes in gold IRAs and physical delivery of precious metals.
00:01:13.000Learn how you could protect your wealth with Noble Gold Investments at noblegoldinvestments.com.
00:01:28.000Joining us now is Cliff Maloney, Great American.
00:01:31.000We're working with him in harmony as he chases ballots in Pennsylvania.
00:01:35.000And Cliff, there is some breaking news potentially.
00:01:38.000I know it's not great news for you in Pennsylvania, but for those of us in Arizona, No, it's a little bit different dynamic here.
00:01:46.000You're founder of Chase PA and CEO of Citizens Alliance.
00:01:49.000The breaking news is potentially, again, this is not yet confirmed, but it's from a very good source, that Josh Shapiro looks to be the vice presidential nominee with Kamala Harris.
00:02:55.000If they go with Mark Kelly, who is a popular senator in Arizona, but nowhere near as popular as I understand Shapiro is in Pennsylvania, there's a difference there.
00:03:05.000If they go with Kelly in Arizona, that means that they think they have a wide path to the White House, and they are bullish on their chances in the Rust Belt, and that they believe that they can have three or four different paths.
00:03:17.000Now, understand, you want to be the presidential campaign that has many paths to a White House.
00:03:25.000If they go with Kelly, they think that they can win Arizona, they can win Nevada, that they can win Georgia, and that they can get closer in Texas than for people realize.
00:03:35.000Mark Kelly is a Sun Belt type of candidate.
00:03:39.000If they go Shapiro, they believe that the Sun Belt is unlikely, and the Sun Belt is not a good investment for them, and they go all in on a Rust Belt strategy.
00:03:52.000Such as we have to win Pennsylvania, we have to win Michigan, or you win a combination of not just winning Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, but what if they win Pennsylvania and Georgia?
00:04:05.000Kamala Harris goes all in on black race politics in Georgia, Shapiro shores up Pennsylvania, and then the path becomes far more difficult for Donald Trump and for the Trump campaign.
00:04:17.000So, if it is Shapiro, it actually means that the Harris campaign sees a narrower path to the White House than a wider one.
00:04:27.000Pennsylvania is going to come down to trench warfare.
00:04:30.000Now, Cliff, I will push back a little bit that in modern presidential politics, we have little evidence that a vice presidential candidate, closer and closer to the election, ends up being determinative of what states actually go which way.
00:05:21.000But it's also these other states where Democrats thought they might have a shot, but with a blue collar, somebody who connects, a working class guy like J.D.
00:05:30.000Vance, I just think the whole entire narrative is flipped on its head.
00:05:36.000No, I think the top of the ticket is still going to be the main driver.
00:05:40.000But when you have somebody like Vance, it shows that they're scared if they go with somebody like a Josh Shapiro to try to figure out ways to create that path to victory.
00:05:50.000And so yeah, I'm playing around with the math in real time here at 270thewin.com.
00:05:55.000Even if Donald Trump wins Arizona, wins Nevada, and wins Wisconsin, but loses Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Georgia, Harris is president.
00:06:04.000And so it really all hinges on Pennsylvania.
00:06:07.000You are chasing ballots every single day in the Commonwealth.
00:06:35.000Vance has been named the VP, I have to tell you, Charlie, my mom and some of these other folks I talk to in southeastern PA and some of these suburban counties, we're talking middle to late age suburban women.
00:06:56.000And so I think that has been the tone.
00:06:58.000You look at even just the registration numbers in Pennsylvania since Trump's conviction, and especially since the assassination attempt in Butler, PA.
00:07:07.000I mean, we now are having a net gain of Republican voters in 67 of 67 counties over the last two months, Charlie.
00:07:17.000That is the first time that has happened in decades.
00:07:23.000In Philadelphia and Allegheny County over the last two months.
00:07:27.000When these are the types of numbers you're seeing, we are primed for a win, but we can't sit back on our heels.
00:07:34.000We have to dig in and we have to figure out a way that we can go out there, chase those ballots, which is exactly what Turning Point's doing.
00:07:41.000It's exactly what we're doing at the PA Chase.
00:07:44.000And folks need to step up, use the Superfeed app, get out there, And make sure that every person you know has a plan to vote.
00:08:41.000He's never really had a difficult race.
00:08:44.000And I hate to say that because I've had friends that have run against him.
00:08:47.000But the reality is he's never had a well-funded race against him.
00:08:51.000And when you have dollars to tell the story of Josh Shapiro versus dollars to tell the story of JD Vance, The American people are not idiots.
00:09:06.000But as people learn about both of them, I do think that J.D.
00:09:09.000Vance is a neutralizer and even somebody that can gain votes in Pennsylvania with a Josh Shapiro vice presidency.
00:09:15.000Now understand, Shapiro comes with some downsides too.
00:09:18.000Not in states you're focused on, Cliff.
00:09:19.000I want to keep talking about Pennsylvania in a second.
00:09:21.000But this doesn't solve their Gaza problem.
00:09:23.000This does not solve this whole looming Israel issue.
00:09:25.000And as we broadcast right now, Bibi is speaking in front of Congress right now.
00:09:30.000And just to understand, Cliff, in Pennsylvania, let's talk about Pennsylvania, it's our focus, there are a fair amount of younger voters that are very passionate about the Gaza thing.
00:10:36.000It could end up being one of the most important things in the country.
00:10:40.000Again, if we win Pennsylvania, and even if we lose Georgia, and we win the West, because I'm getting a vibe right now that they're doing Project Forget the West, if this is true.
00:10:51.000Project Forget the West would be, we have to win Pennsylvania.
00:10:59.000Thanks to the team at Hillsdale College, you can now watch an inspiring portrayal of Thomas Jefferson as he reflects on the meaning of the Declaration of Independence in a letter he wrote late in his life.
00:11:10.000Watch this special short video at charlie4hillsdale.com.
00:11:14.000Since its founding in 1844, Hillsdale has remained true to its mission of offering the kind of education needed to preserve the blessings of liberty, the blessings that can be traced to the principles of the Declaration signed on July 4th.
00:11:27.000At a time where the far left rejects the principles of liberty and equality, we must remind ourselves, our children, and our fellow citizens that those principles are the source of America's greatness and a treasure to be preserved.
00:11:39.000I invite you today to visit charlie4hillsdale.com to watch Hillsdale's educational and inspiring video and you'll receive a free commemorative copy of the Declaration of Independence from my friends at Hillsdale.
00:11:51.000But don't delay, this is a limited time offer.
00:11:53.000Go to charlie4hillsdale.com as we forever and always celebrate Independence Day.
00:11:57.000charlie4hillsdale.com Nothing is confirmed, but the betting markets have completely flipped with Josh Shapiro being now the new favorite, Mark Kelly in the second place.
00:12:10.000So, if they go Mark Kelly, they think that they have a sunbelt path.
00:12:15.000Josh Shapiro is considered to be one of the more talented people.
00:12:17.000He was a DA in Philadelphia, was he not, Cliff?
00:12:20.000Under rise in crime and terrible things that were happening in Philadelphia.
00:12:25.000Yeah, and then his Attorney General and PA.
00:12:27.000I mean, you know, his record is nothing.
00:12:29.000Like I said, he's never really had a tough race.
00:12:31.000He's never been held accountable for a lot of his records.
00:12:33.000So I think Democrats, you know, I don't think it's a bad play.
00:13:02.000And I think the American people can see through that, Charlie.
00:13:04.000So, Cliff, talk about what you're doing on the ground.
00:13:07.000What parts of Pennsylvania are the pressure points that we need to emphasize?
00:13:11.000Yeah, so I think a lot of people assume that we're going to spend all of our time in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, and the reality is we'll spend some time there.
00:13:18.000But the missing ballots, if you look back to 2020, you know, we lost Pennsylvania by 80,000 votes, and 141,000 Republicans requested a ballot and didn't send it back.
00:13:29.000Let me say this very clearly for your viewers, Charlie.
00:13:32.000In Pennsylvania, you have to request a ballot each voting year.
00:13:36.000So in 2020, 141,000 Republicans went through the pain and the process of saying, hey, I'd like a ballot, and didn't send it back.
00:13:47.000So our effort, the PHA is working alongside Early Vote Action, Turning Point Action, all the great partners in the state.
00:13:55.000Our effort is about going out to those doors where we have ballots sitting on the dining room table, And banging on their door or going back a week later and saying, listen, we need you to send it in.
00:14:07.000This is different than general TV ads.
00:14:09.000This is different than radio or digital.
00:14:11.000The campaigns are going to run all of that.
00:14:13.000They're going to drive their message home.
00:14:15.000We have a specific task at PHS, and that is to go to the door where the ballot is of an aligned voter.
00:14:22.000And I hate to use this word, but it's a Democrat tactic.
00:14:46.000Phase one right now is about getting low-propensity, disengaged voters that we've worked with you guys at Turning Point to identify, getting them to request a mail-in ballot.
00:14:56.000Phase two, beginning mid-September, is actually targeting those that have a ballot.
00:15:01.000That's what we're focused on when it comes to paid ballot chasers.
00:15:05.000A volunteer right now can download the Turning Point Action app, can download the PA Chase app, and they can go door-to-door, they can make phone calls, they can write postcards, they can text all the targets of those low propensities in phase one, the people that we want to request a mail-in ballot.
00:15:25.000We could have you set up in the next five minutes You can be all knocking doors, you can be targeting these folks, but the goal right now, between now and mid-September, is to get as many low-propensity, disengaged GOP voters to request a mail-in ballot.
00:15:41.000That's the game the Democrats play, and that's what we're doing right now with volunteers across the commonwealth.
00:15:47.000Cliff, in closing here, other people in other states can also embrace this methodology, and we are right up against some deadlines here, right?
00:15:55.000I mean, we need to hire up, we need to scale up very, very quickly.
00:17:11.000Rich, first your reaction with Joe Biden being pulled out and Kamala Harris being put in.
00:17:16.000We're in uncharted territory, Charlie.
00:17:18.000There's nothing Democrats are unwilling to do to win an election.
00:17:23.000Nothing surprises me anymore, but to toss almost 15 million votes down the toilet?
00:17:32.000I mean, really, what they did was wipe it and flush them, bro.
00:17:35.000It's unbelievable, but it was a last-ditch effort because they felt they were approaching an 08-level collapse, and this is what, like, what difference does it make at this point?
00:18:28.000Are we seeing a honeymoon period for Harris?
00:18:31.000Or is that quickly coming down the more polling that we look at?
00:18:34.000We're going to find out real soon because we're about to enter the field again.
00:18:38.000Because the worst case scenario for Democrats is that this is the sugar high, right?
00:18:43.000And I suspect it may be, Charlie, because we have years of data pitting Kamala Harris against Donald Trump and pitting Joe Biden against Donald Trump.
00:18:54.000And for years, she has always been the weaker candidate.
00:19:50.000And their memo that leaked to Axios and others out there, it's Politico's playbook, He says, you know what, we're basically giving up on some of these other Rust Belt states.
00:19:59.000We'll play in Pennsylvania, which is why there's obviously a lot even more buzz with Shapiro, because Pennsylvania is included in their analysis.
00:20:07.000But we're going to go through the Sun Belt.
00:20:10.000And I immediately thought to myself, okay, so let's get rid of Saginaw, because I've been asking people, who will run stronger?
00:21:04.000But there's still a bit of a sympathy vote there with some of these older groups that he wasn't really losing, even though it was clear he was in mental decline.
00:21:26.000And he still has a somewhat of appearance of being a moderate that she doesn't have whether it's true or not
00:21:32.000He still has that appearance and image and I think she's gonna struggle with those people
00:21:37.000I know but it rich help me understand this. I don't quite I'm not quite grasping it
00:21:41.000I see no evidence that they have signs of life in the Sun Belt
00:21:45.000Where are you reading that that seems to be a little bit of a head fake?
00:21:48.000Yeah I I was I'm arguing that I that people who were jumped the
00:21:52.000gun that that could be a head fake which means you're not going to get Shapiro.
00:21:57.000In North Carolina, the buzz is Roy Cooper.
00:22:00.000If you go to Pennsylvania, I'm sure the buzz is Josh Shapiro.
00:22:02.000If you go to Arizona, I'm sure the buzz is Mark Kelly.
00:22:05.000I don't think we know for sure, but I can tell you The internal polling that they did do that kind of led to this last push to get Joe Biden out.
00:22:13.000Biden was down and in very bad shape, but Kamala Harris was not doing well in the Rust Belt at all.
00:22:20.000So they thought that she had a better path through Georgia, and that part I do know is true.
00:22:26.000And then secondly, if that turns out to be the case, As you just said, the evidence is scant, and also, that's just not how presidential elections work.
00:22:36.000You can't abandon one area of the country.
00:22:38.000Like, I'm giving up on the two of the big three in the Midwest, and I'm going to win by running through Arizona and Georgia.
00:23:07.000Did you know that 80% of adults take supplements to feel our best, right?
00:23:12.000Well, one thing your dog can't do without you is improve their diet or health to feel their best.
00:23:18.000That is why I believe Rough Greens could dramatically help your best friend by adding what is missing to their diet like you do.
00:23:25.000Rough Greens is helping thousands and thousands of dogs feel better and live longer, including my dog, Mr. Briggs, who loves it.
00:23:34.000Naturopathic Dr. Dennis Black, who created Rough Greens, is also an Airborne Ranger and Green Beret.
00:23:40.000An amazing background, he loves dogs and is on a mission to help as many as he can.
00:23:45.000Dog food is dead and Rough Greens supplements your dog's food with existing vitamins and minerals, omega oils, digestive enzymes, probiotics and antioxidants. Dr. Black is offering you a
00:24:40.000It's even, you don't have precincts in Maricopa, but people still vote by areas.
00:24:45.000And you can see that Trump did very well in the more heavily Hispanic areas in the primary.
00:24:51.000It showed there was even evidence that this realignment was real.
00:24:55.000Even in Nevada, you know, when people who voted none of these candidates, you know,
00:24:59.000some of the strongest votes for none of these candidates came out of more Hispanic areas of
00:25:04.000So I would gamble that that's real and that black voters are still going to be your more loyal bet, especially black women.
00:25:12.000And I would stick with that, which means you can't abandon Michigan.
00:25:15.000And they're not going to apparently abandon Pennsylvania, but it would be easier for her to couple together Michigan and Pennsylvania with maybe Georgia.
00:25:25.000I don't know, that landmark poll looks weird to me.
00:25:28.000I think George is probably a problem for her, but she'll be able to hold Virginia if she goes that route, or at least has a better chance.
00:25:34.000I mean, because remember, this state of the race where it is now, that CNN poll, Trump plus three, with Trump basically at 50, that's not a close race in the Electoral College, just so everybody understands.
00:25:45.000And I'm not trying to sow complacency because Republicans should not be complacent ever, but I'm just telling you a Trump plus three is very important.
00:25:55.000This is important, because the national polls mean nothing, but they mean something.
00:26:00.000They mean nothing in practice, but they mean a lot in projection.
00:26:04.000So Joe Biden won the popular vote by four points in 2020, and he held on to the Electoral College by 40,000 votes.
00:26:16.000So a four-point national win was a 40,000 vote advantage with all the crap that we saw.
00:26:26.000And so if Donald Trump is enjoying a two-point, a one-point national popular vote advantage, how does that manifest in the key states?
00:26:37.000Which, let's just remind the audience here, the Trump campaign has not run a television ad.
00:26:43.000The super PACs have yet to be activated and there are, we know this is public, anywhere between three to four hundred million dollars in bank accounts that will be deployed and I'm glad they waited because it would have been negative ads against Biden.
00:26:55.000There is a ground game that will be better.
00:26:58.000Meaning the state of the race, if this is their sugar high, wait until there's 250 million dollars of ads micro-targeted in Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania on the cackling communist.
00:29:21.000The best place to follow me is always on Locals, peoplespundit.locals.com, and they can go to Big Data Poll anytime and check out the public polling project.
00:29:29.000You can find that on Locals as well, which is a publicly funded project, so the more people go there, the better.
00:29:36.000The more people that go there, the better.
00:31:26.000I just think that we got to remember that the top of the ticket has got to carry the ticket and that's the way it's always been.
00:31:31.000It's the way I think it's always going to be.
00:31:34.000So, as we kind of close out this conversation here, going into August, this is a long, long race, Rich.
00:31:42.000If you were advising the Trump campaign, what issues, what places, what type of tone, and let's not forget, Trump getting shot, which I think we still don't quite know the long-term implications of that.
00:31:57.000Trump has yet to run a television ad of him with that very famous fist up.
00:32:01.000Which you run that on every male-dominated media you're going to run up the score.
00:32:07.000What places, what message, what emphasis should the Trump campaign embrace right now?
00:32:13.000I would, the first thing that immediately I feel like I'm obliged to say here is that you are doing better with non-whites.
00:32:19.000You cannot talk about Kamala Harris the way the base talks about Kamala Harris.
00:32:24.000So people are, and I know just from conversations already, we already started engaging with voters, they don't like that she's unqualified.
00:32:32.000They are very upset that she obviously knew about Joe Biden's mental decline and she was part of being, she was part of the plan to dupe them.
00:32:41.000I mean, there are people who knew it but didn't know it was this bad.
00:32:45.000And that is something you can hit her with.
00:32:46.000The border is something you can hit her with.
00:32:48.000The fact that she's just unqualified to do it.
00:32:50.000Have your surrogates, however, do the dirty work.
00:32:53.000You stay away from the stuff that sounds like red meat.
00:32:55.000She has plenty that you can hit her on.
00:33:01.000I mean, but I really, as far as places go, I honestly, I'll tell you what, Charlie, if this poll comes back and she ends up doing significantly better, I would be shocked.
00:33:21.000I think Harry Enten was right on CNN when he said Kamala may be doing better with certain groups, but she's fighting against the realignment.
00:33:29.000So as long as the Trump campaign planned to run a campaign that that really exploits that
00:33:35.000realignment, I'm talking about younger voters, Hispanic voters, nonwhite voters.
00:33:39.000He's already got her down in that 28 percent with white working class.
00:33:43.000Move on to the others and appeal to them.