The Charlie Kirk Show - The Rust Belt Will Be Trench Warfare ft. Cliff Maloney and Rich Baris

00:00:00.000 Hey everybody, today on the Charlie Kirk Show, we talk all about Pennsylvania.

00:00:02.000 Is Shapiro going to be the VP?

00:00:04.000 It is not yet confirmed, but it certainly looks that way.

00:00:06.000 We examine it from every angle with Rich Barris and Cliff Maloney.

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00:00:28.000 Buckle up, everybody.

00:00:29.000 Here we go.

00:00:30.000 Charlie, what you've done is incredible here.

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00:01:28.000 Joining us now is Cliff Maloney, Great American.

00:01:31.000 We're working with him in harmony as he chases ballots in Pennsylvania.

00:01:35.000 And Cliff, there is some breaking news potentially.

00:01:38.000 I know it's not great news for you in Pennsylvania, but for those of us in Arizona, No, it's a little bit different dynamic here.

00:01:46.000 You're founder of Chase PA and CEO of Citizens Alliance.

00:01:49.000 The breaking news is potentially, again, this is not yet confirmed, but it's from a very good source, that Josh Shapiro looks to be the vice presidential nominee with Kamala Harris.

00:02:00.000 Your thoughts, Cliff?

00:02:02.000 Yeah, I saw La Savita's tweet.

00:02:03.000 And if Chris is saying it, I believe it.

00:02:05.000 It's supposed to be a good source.

00:02:07.000 So it's a problem for us in Pennsylvania.

00:02:09.000 You know, look, Charlie, it's not a challenge we can't overcome.

00:02:11.000 But I have to be very honest with your viewers.

00:02:14.000 You know, Josh Shapiro is very liked in the state of Pennsylvania.

00:02:18.000 And I think this just proves what we've been saying for the past eight months, and that is that the White House runs through Pennsylvania.

00:02:25.000 So it's time for us to double down.

00:02:27.000 It's time for us to stop making excuses.

00:02:29.000 Let's not get excited because the polling shows that we're in the right spot.

00:02:34.000 No, this is the time to actually do the work.

00:02:37.000 And as always, Democrats will run their machine.

00:02:39.000 They'll turn out the vote in Pittsburgh or turn out the vote in Philadelphia.

00:02:43.000 And so it's going to be up to us to match their tactics.

00:02:46.000 So the Democrats are thinking about this, so let's just kind of get into how they were thinking.

00:02:50.000 If it is Shapiro, and if it's Mark Kelly, they think about something different.

00:02:53.000 So let's start with Mark Kelly.

00:02:55.000 If they go with Mark Kelly, who is a popular senator in Arizona, but nowhere near as popular as I understand Shapiro is in Pennsylvania, there's a difference there.

00:03:05.000 If they go with Kelly in Arizona, that means that they think they have a wide path to the White House, and they are bullish on their chances in the Rust Belt, and that they believe that they can have three or four different paths.

00:03:17.000 Now, understand, you want to be the presidential campaign that has many paths to a White House.

00:03:23.000 You want many places that can break.

00:03:25.000 If they go with Kelly, they think that they can win Arizona, they can win Nevada, that they can win Georgia, and that they can get closer in Texas than for people realize.

00:03:35.000 Mark Kelly is a Sun Belt type of candidate.

00:03:39.000 If they go Shapiro, they believe that the Sun Belt is unlikely, and the Sun Belt is not a good investment for them, and they go all in on a Rust Belt strategy.

00:03:52.000 Such as we have to win Pennsylvania, we have to win Michigan, or you win a combination of not just winning Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, but what if they win Pennsylvania and Georgia?

00:04:05.000 Kamala Harris goes all in on black race politics in Georgia, Shapiro shores up Pennsylvania, and then the path becomes far more difficult for Donald Trump and for the Trump campaign.

00:04:17.000 So, if it is Shapiro, it actually means that the Harris campaign sees a narrower path to the White House than a wider one.

00:04:27.000 Pennsylvania is going to come down to trench warfare.

00:04:30.000 Now, Cliff, I will push back a little bit that in modern presidential politics, we have little evidence that a vice presidential candidate, closer and closer to the election, ends up being determinative of what states actually go which way.

00:04:46.000 What do you think, Cliff?

00:04:47.000 Well, I completely agree, but this is unprecedented, right?

00:04:50.000 You have a candidate dropping out just a few months.

00:04:53.000 You know, the presumable nominee doesn't even make it to the convention.

00:04:57.000 And so I agree with you.

00:04:58.000 I think VPs are tough to have some impact, but I got to be straight with you, Charlie.

00:05:03.000 JD Vance?

00:05:05.000 Is a major, major problem for the Harris ticket.

00:05:09.000 Yes.

00:05:09.000 And so I do think you're right.

00:05:10.000 If they go with Shapiro, it shows that they see how much of a threat J.D.

00:05:15.000 Vance is.

00:05:16.000 And it's not just in Pennsylvania and Michigan where J.D.

00:05:19.000 Vance is very well liked.

00:05:21.000 But it's also these other states where Democrats thought they might have a shot, but with a blue collar, somebody who connects, a working class guy like J.D.

00:05:30.000 Vance, I just think the whole entire narrative is flipped on its head.

00:05:33.000 So do VPs typically matter?

00:05:36.000 No, I think the top of the ticket is still going to be the main driver.

00:05:40.000 But when you have somebody like Vance, it shows that they're scared if they go with somebody like a Josh Shapiro to try to figure out ways to create that path to victory.

00:05:50.000 And so yeah, I'm playing around with the math in real time here at 270thewin.com.

00:05:55.000 Even if Donald Trump wins Arizona, wins Nevada, and wins Wisconsin, but loses Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Georgia, Harris is president.

00:06:04.000 And so it really all hinges on Pennsylvania.

00:06:07.000 You are chasing ballots every single day in the Commonwealth.

00:06:12.000 You are dedicated to this.

00:06:14.000 What is the vibe on the ground?

00:06:16.000 What are you hearing?

00:06:17.000 And with Shapiro, this becomes a race cliff that could come down to 5,000 votes.

00:06:23.000 Yeah, it's going to be narrow.

00:06:25.000 Even if we continue to turn in the right direction, it will be narrow because Democrats chase ballots like crazy.

00:06:31.000 Look, what we're seeing on the ground is pretty, pretty remarkable.

00:06:34.000 Since J.D.

00:06:35.000 Vance has been named the VP, I have to tell you, Charlie, my mom and some of these other folks I talk to in southeastern PA and some of these suburban counties, we're talking middle to late age suburban women.

00:06:48.000 J.D.

00:06:48.000 Vance connects.

00:06:49.000 You look to Pittsburgh and some of the suburbs out there, the working class people.

00:06:53.000 J.D.

00:06:54.000 Vance connects.

00:06:56.000 And so I think that has been the tone.

00:06:58.000 You look at even just the registration numbers in Pennsylvania since Trump's conviction, and especially since the assassination attempt in Butler, PA.

00:07:07.000 I mean, we now are having a net gain of Republican voters in 67 of 67 counties over the last two months, Charlie.

00:07:17.000 That is the first time that has happened in decades.

00:07:20.000 Think about that.

00:07:21.000 Republicans are having net gains.

00:07:23.000 In Philadelphia and Allegheny County over the last two months.

00:07:27.000 When these are the types of numbers you're seeing, we are primed for a win, but we can't sit back on our heels.

00:07:34.000 We have to dig in and we have to figure out a way that we can go out there, chase those ballots, which is exactly what Turning Point's doing.

00:07:41.000 It's exactly what we're doing at the PA Chase.

00:07:44.000 And folks need to step up, use the Superfeed app, get out there, And make sure that every person you know has a plan to vote.

00:07:52.000 That's how we win this thing.

00:07:54.000 So, yeah, I totally agree.

00:07:55.000 I want to re-emphasize something you said and not gloss over it.

00:07:58.000 With J.D.

00:07:59.000 Vance as the VP, we almost have a neutralizer of Shapiro.

00:08:03.000 Not totally, because Shapiro's definitely more liked than almost any politician, but we can offset that a little bit.

00:08:11.000 Is that fair to say, Cliff?

00:08:12.000 Yeah, but you also have to look at it this way.

00:08:14.000 J.D.

00:08:14.000 Vance is the real deal.

00:08:15.000 He's authentic.

00:08:17.000 Josh Shapiro is more like AstroTurf. 1.00

00:08:20.000 I think he's a dork. 0.98

00:08:23.000 I just, I mean, I don't know. 0.99

00:08:24.000 I don't live in Pennsylvania, but please continue.

00:08:26.000 I've never seen anything like this.

00:08:27.000 This guy is able to get the radical left to donate and love him.

00:08:31.000 He's able to present himself to moderate suburban Republican women.

00:08:35.000 They adore him.

00:08:37.000 Right?

00:08:37.000 He's able to kind of find all these little circles.

00:08:40.000 But here's what I'll tell you.

00:08:41.000 He's never really had a difficult race.

00:08:44.000 And I hate to say that because I've had friends that have run against him.

00:08:47.000 But the reality is he's never had a well-funded race against him. 0.98

00:08:51.000 And when you have dollars to tell the story of Josh Shapiro versus dollars to tell the story of JD Vance, The American people are not idiots. 0.98

00:09:01.000 They will love J.D. 0.98

00:09:02.000 Vance.

00:09:03.000 You're already seeing it here in Pennsylvania.

00:09:04.000 You're seeing across the country.

00:09:06.000 But as people learn about both of them, I do think that J.D.

00:09:09.000 Vance is a neutralizer and even somebody that can gain votes in Pennsylvania with a Josh Shapiro vice presidency.

00:09:15.000 Now understand, Shapiro comes with some downsides too.

00:09:18.000 Not in states you're focused on, Cliff.

00:09:19.000 I want to keep talking about Pennsylvania in a second.

00:09:21.000 But this doesn't solve their Gaza problem. 0.74

00:09:23.000 This does not solve this whole looming Israel issue.

00:09:25.000 And as we broadcast right now, Bibi is speaking in front of Congress right now.

00:09:30.000 And just to understand, Cliff, in Pennsylvania, let's talk about Pennsylvania, it's our focus, there are a fair amount of younger voters that are very passionate about the Gaza thing.

00:09:40.000 Is that fair to say?

00:09:42.000 Oh, yeah.

00:09:42.000 I mean, I think the Democrat Party is going to have a Hamas problem, right?

00:09:45.000 I mean, I'm expecting protesters at the DNC, if it's Josh Shapiro.

00:09:50.000 I mean, they look at any Jewish individual as the enemy. 0.99

00:09:54.000 They are the devil. 1.00

00:09:55.000 They are the one that needs to be stopped. 0.99

00:09:57.000 And I mean, these folks are radical.

00:09:58.000 And so, yeah, there's a younger population in Pennsylvania that is not going to like having a Jewish vice presidential nominee. 0.91

00:10:05.000 And if it means they jump to RFK or they vote, you know, Green Party, Kudos to them, right?

00:10:10.000 But we're going to be fully unified on the right.

00:10:13.000 We have this coalition of conservatives, constitutionalists, libertarians.

00:10:17.000 We are all in for Donald Trump and J.D.

00:10:19.000 Banz.

00:10:20.000 The left is now the fractured party if they go the direction of Josh Shapiro.

00:10:25.000 I love that.

00:10:26.000 Cliff, your website?

00:10:28.000 Sure, pachase.com.

00:10:30.000 Looking to hire 120 full-time chasers.

00:10:33.000 We're launching here in September.

00:10:34.000 pachase.com.

00:10:36.000 It could end up being one of the most important things in the country.

00:10:40.000 Again, if we win Pennsylvania, and even if we lose Georgia, and we win the West, because I'm getting a vibe right now that they're doing Project Forget the West, if this is true.

00:10:51.000 Project Forget the West would be, we have to win Pennsylvania.

00:10:55.000 We have to win Pennsylvania.

00:10:58.000 Hey everybody, Charlie Kirk here.

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00:11:57.000 charlie4hillsdale.com Nothing is confirmed, but the betting markets have completely flipped with Josh Shapiro being now the new favorite, Mark Kelly in the second place.

00:12:10.000 So, if they go Mark Kelly, they think that they have a sunbelt path.

00:12:15.000 Josh Shapiro is considered to be one of the more talented people.

00:12:17.000 He was a DA in Philadelphia, was he not, Cliff?

00:12:20.000 Under rise in crime and terrible things that were happening in Philadelphia.

00:12:25.000 Yeah, and then his Attorney General and PA.

00:12:27.000 I mean, you know, his record is nothing.

00:12:29.000 Like I said, he's never really had a tough race.

00:12:31.000 He's never been held accountable for a lot of his records.

00:12:33.000 So I think Democrats, you know, I don't think it's a bad play.

00:12:37.000 Don't get me wrong.

00:12:37.000 I'm going to make things more difficult in Pennsylvania, but by no means is this a challenge that we can't get past.

00:12:44.000 Like I said, he's been everything to everybody.

00:12:46.000 I mean, does that not remind you of Kamala Harris?

00:12:48.000 You know, somebody who's kind of been a prosecutor, if you will, somebody in the legal sphere that tries to play both sides of everything.

00:12:56.000 You know, you can't be for Black Lives Matter and defunding the police on the same day.

00:13:00.000 But somehow these people pull it off.

00:13:02.000 And I think the American people can see through that, Charlie.

00:13:04.000 So, Cliff, talk about what you're doing on the ground.

00:13:07.000 What parts of Pennsylvania are the pressure points that we need to emphasize?

00:13:11.000 Yeah, so I think a lot of people assume that we're going to spend all of our time in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, and the reality is we'll spend some time there.

00:13:18.000 But the missing ballots, if you look back to 2020, you know, we lost Pennsylvania by 80,000 votes, and 141,000 Republicans requested a ballot and didn't send it back.

00:13:29.000 Let me say this very clearly for your viewers, Charlie.

00:13:32.000 In Pennsylvania, you have to request a ballot each voting year.

00:13:36.000 So in 2020, 141,000 Republicans went through the pain and the process of saying, hey, I'd like a ballot, and didn't send it back.

00:13:45.000 And we only lost by 80,000 votes.

00:13:47.000 So our effort, the PHA is working alongside Early Vote Action, Turning Point Action, all the great partners in the state.

00:13:55.000 Our effort is about going out to those doors where we have ballots sitting on the dining room table, And banging on their door or going back a week later and saying, listen, we need you to send it in.

00:14:07.000 This is different than general TV ads.

00:14:09.000 This is different than radio or digital.

00:14:11.000 The campaigns are going to run all of that.

00:14:13.000 They're going to drive their message home.

00:14:15.000 We have a specific task at PHS, and that is to go to the door where the ballot is of an aligned voter.

00:14:22.000 And I hate to use this word, but it's a Democrat tactic.

00:14:26.000 We want to annoy the voter.

00:14:28.000 To the point of them saying, OK, I'll send it back.

00:14:31.000 And it's horrible to admit, but that's the fire we have to fight the Dems fire with to match their tactics.

00:14:38.000 That is exactly right.

00:14:39.000 And so talk about what volunteers can do to assist this on the ground in Pennsylvania.

00:14:45.000 Yeah, so there's two phases.

00:14:46.000 Phase one right now is about getting low-propensity, disengaged voters that we've worked with you guys at Turning Point to identify, getting them to request a mail-in ballot.

00:14:56.000 Phase two, beginning mid-September, is actually targeting those that have a ballot.

00:15:01.000 That's what we're focused on when it comes to paid ballot chasers. 0.95

00:15:05.000 A volunteer right now can download the Turning Point Action app, can download the PA Chase app, and they can go door-to-door, they can make phone calls, they can write postcards, they can text all the targets of those low propensities in phase one, the people that we want to request a mail-in ballot.

00:15:23.000 You can do that right now.

00:15:25.000 We could have you set up in the next five minutes You can be all knocking doors, you can be targeting these folks, but the goal right now, between now and mid-September, is to get as many low-propensity, disengaged GOP voters to request a mail-in ballot.

00:15:41.000 That's the game the Democrats play, and that's what we're doing right now with volunteers across the commonwealth.

00:15:46.000 It's so important.

00:15:47.000 Cliff, in closing here, other people in other states can also embrace this methodology, and we are right up against some deadlines here, right?

00:15:55.000 I mean, we need to hire up, we need to scale up very, very quickly.

00:15:59.000 I have the dates right here.

00:16:00.000 We are 54 days out from Pennsylvania early balloting go-out.

00:16:05.000 In that voting month, we must remember that Election Day is the last day of voting.

00:16:11.000 Closing thoughts, Cliff?

00:16:13.000 Yeah, I'm excited, Charlie.

00:16:14.000 I hate to put it like that, but being in the political sphere, a lot of times there's reason for doubt.

00:16:19.000 There's reason for being pessimistic.

00:16:21.000 Right now, if you believe in the principles of the Constitution.

00:16:24.000 This is probably one of the biggest opportunities we're going to have.

00:16:27.000 It's not a guaranteed win, but I will say this again and again, Charlie, you're over the mark, you're over the target.

00:16:33.000 If people follow your lead, that we need to do the work to win, chase the ballots, make a plan to vote.

00:16:40.000 I think in 2024, we have a Trump presidency, a J.D.

00:16:43.000 Vance vice presidency, no neocons on the ticket for the first time in history, and I'm excited to be leading the PHAs.

00:16:50.000 Cliff, thank you so much.

00:16:51.000 Love it, and talk to you soon.

00:16:52.000 Thank you.

00:16:53.000 Thanks.

00:16:54.000 Email us freedom at charliekirk.com.

00:16:56.000 Remember that the last day of voting is Election Day, and it's the first day of counting.

00:17:05.000 Joining us now is Rich Barris, Big Data Polls and the People Pundit Daily.

00:17:10.000 Rich, welcome to the program.

00:17:11.000 Rich, first your reaction with Joe Biden being pulled out and Kamala Harris being put in.

00:17:16.000 We're in uncharted territory, Charlie.

00:17:18.000 There's nothing Democrats are unwilling to do to win an election.

00:17:23.000 Nothing surprises me anymore, but to toss almost 15 million votes down the toilet?

00:17:32.000 I mean, really, what they did was wipe it and flush them, bro.

00:17:35.000 It's unbelievable, but it was a last-ditch effort because they felt they were approaching an 08-level collapse, and this is what, like, what difference does it make at this point?

00:17:47.000 Might as well throw a Hail Mary.

00:17:49.000 So, Rich, let's go into the data.

00:17:51.000 There's some polls that are coming out, like the Reuters poll that shows a little bit of a sugar-high bump.

00:17:56.000 There are other polls, though, and other data that shows that it's actually a mirror image of the Biden race.

00:18:03.000 In fact, even worse for Democrats.

00:18:06.000 So, for example, CNN poll has Trump up three on Harris.

00:18:10.000 NPR-Marist poll has Trump up one on Harris.

00:18:14.000 But, however, if it's a five-way race, Trump is up three.

00:18:18.000 The Yahoo poll has Trump up three on Harris.

00:18:21.000 When it's a five-way, Trump is up two.

00:18:23.000 But the state-by-state looks better.

00:18:26.000 What is the data showing you?

00:18:28.000 Are we seeing a honeymoon period for Harris?

00:18:31.000 Or is that quickly coming down the more polling that we look at?

00:18:34.000 We're going to find out real soon because we're about to enter the field again.

00:18:38.000 Because the worst case scenario for Democrats is that this is the sugar high, right?

00:18:43.000 And I suspect it may be, Charlie, because we have years of data pitting Kamala Harris against Donald Trump and pitting Joe Biden against Donald Trump.

00:18:54.000 And for years, she has always been the weaker candidate.

00:18:57.000 I am a little bit skeptical.

00:18:59.000 That she would somehow be, you know, that would change to any significant degree.

00:19:05.000 But yeah, people do have to know the power of the media and they're going to cheerlead for her. 1.00

00:19:09.000 And that's not how Democrats run campaigns these days.

00:19:12.000 They get their media to cheerlead for them and then they chase ballots.

00:19:16.000 That's how they run elections. 0.99

00:19:18.000 So, you know, I think still, however, I called this!

00:19:22.000 , I call this I agree often and more frequently. The risk of a polling error is

00:19:40.000 worse for Harris.

00:19:41.000 Hold on, but it's even worse than that, Rich.

00:19:43.000 It's that states like Arizona have a lot more older voters than younger voters.

00:19:48.000 Maricopa!

00:19:49.000 Right?

00:19:50.000 And their memo that leaked to Axios and others out there, it's Politico's playbook, He says, you know what, we're basically giving up on some of these other Rust Belt states.

00:19:59.000 We'll play in Pennsylvania, which is why there's obviously a lot even more buzz with Shapiro, because Pennsylvania is included in their analysis.

00:20:07.000 But we're going to go through the Sun Belt.

00:20:10.000 And I immediately thought to myself, okay, so let's get rid of Saginaw, because I've been asking people, who will run stronger?

00:20:15.000 Forget about the polls.

00:20:16.000 Who will run stronger in Saginaw County?

00:20:19.000 Scranton Joe or Kamala Harris, right?

00:20:21.000 And they'll vote.

00:20:22.000 We're not going to deal with Michigan.

00:20:23.000 We're just going to deal with Pennsylvania and Arizona and Nevada.

00:20:26.000 Okay, then fine.

00:20:27.000 Maricopa County, Arizona, where there's obviously a lot of older voters who were squishy on Trump.

00:20:34.000 Let's be real.

00:20:34.000 Let's be honest, Charlie.

00:20:35.000 There's some You know, 65 to 74 specifically, who are squishy on Trump.

00:20:40.000 Who would they feel more inclined to vote for, Joe Biden or Kamala Harris?

00:20:45.000 I would argue easily Joe Biden, even with his conditions.

00:20:50.000 Because, you know, back to your first question, I really think it's important we all keep saying this.

00:20:55.000 Democrats did not junk Joe because he has dementia.

00:20:58.000 They junked Joe because they could no longer hide that he had dementia and the polling collapsed on him.

00:21:02.000 Everyone knew he already did.

00:21:04.000 But there's still a bit of a sympathy vote there with some of these older groups that he wasn't really losing, even though it was clear he was in mental decline.

00:21:14.000 So I think that's important to note.

00:21:16.000 I think there are seniors who would rather vote for Joe Biden, who is in mental decline, So, Rich, help me understand this.

00:21:21.000 I don't quite, I'm not quite grasping it.

00:21:22.000 I see no evidence that they have signs of life in the Sun Belt.

00:21:26.000 Where are you reading that?

00:21:26.000 And he still has a somewhat of appearance of being a moderate that she doesn't have whether it's true or not

00:21:32.000 He still has that appearance and image and I think she's gonna struggle with those people

00:21:37.000 I know but it rich help me understand this. I don't quite I'm not quite grasping it

00:21:41.000 I see no evidence that they have signs of life in the Sun Belt

00:21:45.000 Where are you reading that that seems to be a little bit of a head fake?

00:21:48.000 Yeah I I was I'm arguing that I that people who were jumped the

00:21:52.000 gun that that could be a head fake which means you're not going to get Shapiro.

00:21:57.000 In North Carolina, the buzz is Roy Cooper.

00:22:00.000 If you go to Pennsylvania, I'm sure the buzz is Josh Shapiro.

00:22:02.000 If you go to Arizona, I'm sure the buzz is Mark Kelly.

00:22:05.000 I don't think we know for sure, but I can tell you The internal polling that they did do that kind of led to this last push to get Joe Biden out.

00:22:13.000 Biden was down and in very bad shape, but Kamala Harris was not doing well in the Rust Belt at all.

00:22:20.000 So they thought that she had a better path through Georgia, and that part I do know is true. 1.00

00:22:24.000 I just don't know how much better.

00:22:26.000 And then secondly, if that turns out to be the case, As you just said, the evidence is scant, and also, that's just not how presidential elections work.

00:22:36.000 You can't abandon one area of the country.

00:22:38.000 Like, I'm giving up on the two of the big three in the Midwest, and I'm going to win by running through Arizona and Georgia.

00:22:45.000 You can't do that.

00:22:45.000 The country will move on you and you'll lose them all.

00:22:48.000 The Arizona voter registration numbers, again, I'm not guaranteeing anything.

00:22:51.000 It's just it's not it's not as easy of a lift.

00:22:54.000 And Arizona has a has a tradition.

00:22:58.000 They do not like radical Democrats.

00:23:00.000 That is a thing.

00:23:01.000 And Kamala Harris is one.

00:23:03.000 Hey everybody, Charlie Kirk here.

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00:24:07.000 If you were advising the Kamala Harris campaign, I think this is a helpful thought exercise

00:24:14.000 for anyone. What is her best path? I do still think that the, you know,

00:24:21.000 you're better off with taking a risk that the realignment with certain black voters 0.99

00:24:28.000 isn't as strong as some of the polling suggests.

00:24:31.000 I think it is much more feasible to me, Charlie, that Trump is going to romp in Hispanic areas in Arizona.

00:24:39.000 And it's not just the polling.

00:24:40.000 It's even, you don't have precincts in Maricopa, but people still vote by areas.

00:24:45.000 And you can see that Trump did very well in the more heavily Hispanic areas in the primary.

00:24:51.000 It showed there was even evidence that this realignment was real.

00:24:55.000 Even in Nevada, you know, when people who voted none of these candidates, you know,

00:24:59.000 some of the strongest votes for none of these candidates came out of more Hispanic areas of

00:25:04.000 So I would gamble that that's real and that black voters are still going to be your more loyal bet, especially black women. 0.99

00:25:12.000 And I would stick with that, which means you can't abandon Michigan.

00:25:15.000 And they're not going to apparently abandon Pennsylvania, but it would be easier for her to couple together Michigan and Pennsylvania with maybe Georgia.

00:25:25.000 I don't know, that landmark poll looks weird to me.

00:25:28.000 I think George is probably a problem for her, but she'll be able to hold Virginia if she goes that route, or at least has a better chance. 0.94

00:25:34.000 I mean, because remember, this state of the race where it is now, that CNN poll, Trump plus three, with Trump basically at 50, that's not a close race in the Electoral College, just so everybody understands.

00:25:45.000 And I'm not trying to sow complacency because Republicans should not be complacent ever, but I'm just telling you a Trump plus three is very important.

00:25:55.000 This is important, because the national polls mean nothing, but they mean something.

00:26:00.000 They mean nothing in practice, but they mean a lot in projection.

00:26:04.000 So Joe Biden won the popular vote by four points in 2020, and he held on to the Electoral College by 40,000 votes. 0.55

00:26:16.000 So a four-point national win was a 40,000 vote advantage with all the crap that we saw. 0.90

00:26:24.000 All the nonsense. 0.98

00:26:24.000 Let's be honest, right? 0.98

00:26:26.000 And so if Donald Trump is enjoying a two-point, a one-point national popular vote advantage, how does that manifest in the key states?

00:26:37.000 Which, let's just remind the audience here, the Trump campaign has not run a television ad.

00:26:43.000 The super PACs have yet to be activated and there are, we know this is public, anywhere between three to four hundred million dollars in bank accounts that will be deployed and I'm glad they waited because it would have been negative ads against Biden.

00:26:55.000 There is a ground game that will be better.

00:26:57.000 Can you comment on all that rich?

00:26:58.000 Meaning the state of the race, if this is their sugar high, wait until there's 250 million dollars of ads micro-targeted in Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania on the cackling communist.

00:27:09.000 It was smart.

00:27:11.000 Some of the money that we looked at and we even talked about on our show, Charlie, was like very targeted, black radio in urban areas.

00:27:18.000 And it was general.

00:27:19.000 It didn't run against Biden.

00:27:21.000 It ran against, you know, this was the record I had.

00:27:23.000 And this was the black experience under my presidency.

00:27:26.000 And, you know, they talked about that, which was smart because that's really running against a generic Democrat.

00:27:31.000 But once they start to implement this, They really have been keeping their powder dry.

00:27:36.000 And by the way, what does it mean when they have a lead like that without an ad even spent?

00:27:41.000 It means that, again, if I was Kamala, I would not gamble on the Hispanic vote. 0.88

00:27:45.000 New Mexico could be close.

00:27:46.000 I'm not kidding.

00:27:47.000 Because 40% of the vote is Hispanic.

00:27:49.000 So if he's doing this well with Hispanic votes, he winds up carrying whites, New Mexico will be a close race.

00:27:56.000 In a poll like CNN, the one that just came out, Maine is going to be close.

00:28:00.000 I mean, I don't know if people understand how bad that is for Democrats.

00:28:03.000 And that goes, again, goes back to what I was saying before.

00:28:06.000 I just think they thought, Charlie, that with Biden, those states were going to go, or could, and likely.

00:28:12.000 You know, so that they didn't want to, you know, they didn't want to take that risk.

00:28:15.000 And at least with Harris, they have an excuse.

00:28:18.000 You know, they don't have to, I want, I want to explain this to people.

00:28:21.000 They don't have to answer for what they did in 2020.

00:28:25.000 And then through the law fair, if they get rid of Biden, they can make an excuse as to why they lost with Harris.

00:28:31.000 And if they were to have kept the status quo, Biden was the symbol of all of that.

00:28:36.000 It would have been a repudiation of them and their behavior and their actions and their policies.

00:28:40.000 So this is giving them a little bit of a way out.

00:28:43.000 Look, here's another thing with Hispanics. 1.00

00:28:44.000 Hispanic men have a hard time voting for a female.

00:28:46.000 I'm just being honest.

00:28:47.000 It's a cultural thing.

00:28:48.000 Yeah.

00:28:48.000 No, I'm not saying I support it.

00:28:50.000 I was gonna say that.

00:28:51.000 I'm not saying I support it.

00:28:52.000 It's a reality.

00:28:52.000 It's a thing.

00:28:53.000 By the way, in the Mexican government elections recently, they had two females running against each other. 0.56

00:28:57.000 So that's not applicable.

00:28:58.000 It is a thing in Latino culture.

00:29:01.000 Latino men typically will have difficulty voting for a female to run a country or a government.

00:29:09.000 That is a cultural reality.

00:29:11.000 And I don't know if the Democrats know that or not.

00:29:14.000 Rich, I never do a good job of this.

00:29:16.000 Can you please plug all your work here?

00:29:18.000 I want to make sure the audience knows how to find you.

00:29:20.000 I appreciate that, Charlie.

00:29:21.000 The best place to follow me is always on Locals, peoplespundit.locals.com, and they can go to Big Data Poll anytime and check out the public polling project.

00:29:29.000 You can find that on Locals as well, which is a publicly funded project, so the more people go there, the better.

00:29:36.000 The more people that go there, the better.

00:29:37.000 No corporation sponsors, Charlie.

00:29:39.000 The people.

00:29:40.000 And that's all I gotta answer to.

00:29:43.000 I like it that way.

00:29:45.000 So there's a lot happening right now.

00:29:47.000 By the way, the betting markets are so funny.

00:29:49.000 Now Mark Kelly has retaken the lead as the vice presidential selection.

00:29:54.000 So it's all over the place.

00:29:57.000 Unpredicted.

00:29:57.000 It was Shapiro, and then it's Kelly, and then it's Shapiro, and then it's Kelly.

00:30:01.000 It's all over the place.

00:30:02.000 So, let's talk about J.D.

00:30:05.000 Vance.

00:30:06.000 J.D.

00:30:06.000 Vance is a vice presidential selection.

00:30:09.000 How does he help Donald Trump in the Rust Belt?

00:30:13.000 I am a big believer, and I want to be consistent here, because it doesn't matter if Kamala Harris picks Shapiro.

00:30:18.000 I don't think it will help that much in Pennsylvania.

00:30:21.000 The strongest case for VP nominees making an impact is LBJ with JFK, of course, with the state of Texas.

00:30:29.000 But that is one of the strongest cases when you look at the historical record.

00:30:33.000 What I think matters about J.D.

00:30:36.000 Vance is two things.

00:30:37.000 One, it tells the administrative state, you can't replace me.

00:30:41.000 You may really regret it if you replace me.

00:30:45.000 I think that was a different decision Donald Trump had to make this year, but also obviously it sets J.D.

00:30:51.000 up and I think that J.D.

00:30:52.000 is more, I call him the most representative U.S.

00:30:55.000 Senator on Capitol Hill.

00:30:59.000 Republicans don't have very good representation in the House or the Senate.

00:31:03.000 And J.D.

00:31:04.000 represents the future of where this party is going and I think is unique in doing that.

00:31:09.000 Ohio is not, it's not really accurate to say that Ohio is a red state or a Republican state.

00:31:15.000 It's a Trumplican state. 1.00

00:31:17.000 If you went back to the party of George Bush, Ohio is going to get real close real fast.

00:31:21.000 Same thing with Iowa.

00:31:23.000 So I think that's the importance of J.D.

00:31:24.000 and why it helps him on the ticket.

00:31:26.000 I just think that we got to remember that the top of the ticket has got to carry the ticket and that's the way it's always been.

00:31:31.000 It's the way I think it's always going to be.

00:31:34.000 So, as we kind of close out this conversation here, going into August, this is a long, long race, Rich.

00:31:42.000 If you were advising the Trump campaign, what issues, what places, what type of tone, and let's not forget, Trump getting shot, which I think we still don't quite know the long-term implications of that.

00:31:57.000 Trump has yet to run a television ad of him with that very famous fist up.

00:32:01.000 Which you run that on every male-dominated media you're going to run up the score. 0.85

00:32:07.000 What places, what message, what emphasis should the Trump campaign embrace right now?

00:32:13.000 I would, the first thing that immediately I feel like I'm obliged to say here is that you are doing better with non-whites. 1.00

00:32:19.000 You cannot talk about Kamala Harris the way the base talks about Kamala Harris.

00:32:24.000 So people are, and I know just from conversations already, we already started engaging with voters, they don't like that she's unqualified.

00:32:31.000 That's fine.

00:32:32.000 They are very upset that she obviously knew about Joe Biden's mental decline and she was part of being, she was part of the plan to dupe them.

00:32:41.000 I mean, there are people who knew it but didn't know it was this bad.

00:32:45.000 And that is something you can hit her with. 0.94

00:32:46.000 The border is something you can hit her with. 0.99

00:32:48.000 The fact that she's just unqualified to do it.

00:32:50.000 Have your surrogates, however, do the dirty work. 0.97

00:32:53.000 You stay away from the stuff that sounds like red meat. 0.97

00:32:55.000 She has plenty that you can hit her on. 1.00

00:33:01.000 Normal stuff.

00:33:01.000 I mean, but I really, as far as places go, I honestly, I'll tell you what, Charlie, if this poll comes back and she ends up doing significantly better, I would be shocked.

00:33:14.000 I really would.

00:33:15.000 Honestly, I think that the map remains the same.

00:33:18.000 And I think the plan remains the same.

00:33:20.000 This is a long term realignment.

00:33:21.000 I think Harry Enten was right on CNN when he said Kamala may be doing better with certain groups, but she's fighting against the realignment.

00:33:29.000 So as long as the Trump campaign planned to run a campaign that that really exploits that

00:33:35.000 realignment, I'm talking about younger voters, Hispanic voters, nonwhite voters.

00:33:39.000 He's already got her down in that 28 percent with white working class. 1.00

00:33:43.000 Move on to the others and appeal to them.

00:33:46.000 Stick to the game plan.

00:33:47.000 And I really don't think I mean, they could put up.

00:33:50.000 And other people and there still would be an event we should embrace.

00:33:53.000 We should embrace boomers coming home. 1.00

00:33:55.000 They vote in huge numbers.

00:33:57.000 Oh, yes.

00:33:58.000 And they are determinative.

00:33:59.000 I'm telling you, this is a very good development.

00:34:01.000 Yes.

00:34:02.000 In Maricopa County.

00:34:04.000 How about Clark County?

00:34:06.000 Clark County, all across Wisconsin.

00:34:08.000 This is a very positive development.

00:34:11.000 We're going to lose more with Gen Z women and maybe with black women that might show up in bigger numbers. 1.00

00:34:17.000 We're going to gain with men, we will gain with Hispanics, and we will gain with boomers. 0.99

00:34:22.000 And one boomer voter, they show up in greater numbers than younger voters.

00:34:28.000 Rich, thanks so much.

00:34:29.000 All the best, my friend.

00:34:30.000 Thanks so much for listening, everybody.

00:34:31.000 Email us, as always, freedom at charliekirk.com.

00:34:34.000 Thanks so much for listening, and God bless.

The Charlie Kirk Show - July 25, 2024

The Rust Belt Will Be Trench Warfare ft. Cliff Maloney and Rich Baris

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